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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 11th Mar 2022, 10:51
  #3021 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Recc
Apologies; this is not really aimed at you, but I do wish people would stop talking like this. The invasion and its justification prove that with complete control of domestic information, Putin does not need any 'excuses'. If he is prepared (or indeed wants) to use nuclear weapons to end a foreign war on favourable terms or as an elaborate suicide, then what NATO or the west does is irrelevant; the only alternative would be complete capitulation to whatever he wants. In short, it is a risk we need to take and his threats are not a reason for unilateral deescalation. What we need to do is match Russian escalation, whilst making it clear that (short of a direct attack on NATO territory) the Russian state is not under threat. It is vital that Putin finishes the war in a weaker position than when he started it. Any other outcome (particularly if derived from nuclear blackmail) will merely postpone a much worse conflict. I accept that if Western nations can avoid direct involvement it is much safer, but it should not be ruled out under all circumstances and Putin should know this.
...and I would wish that people would stop talking like this ^^^^

As it stands right now, this whole sorry mess is contained...if NATO "wades in" then it won't be and it really will be the start of WW3.

When you say "it is a risk we need to take" will you be at the front end like our friends and families will be ? Three pathways lie ahead; de-escalation, containment or escalation.
There seems to be too many hell bent on pathway three from the safety of their armchairs, when the most likely and favourable outcome is de-escalation brought on by Russian populace pressures. Wade in and that internal support will be lost.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:03
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY

As it stands right now, this whole sorry mess is contained...if NATO "wades in" then it won't be and it really will be the start of WW3.
An assertion without evidence. For a start, there is no mechanism by which 'NATO' could 'wade in', this would be a decision for individual nations. Furthermore, it would not automatically lead to WWIII. There would be zero reason for Russia to choose to expand the war in response to limited foreign intervention in Ukraine. It cannot win a wider war with conventional forces, and has no interest in a strategic nuclear exchange.


Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
the most likely and favourable outcome is de-escalation brought on by Russian populace pressures. Wade in and that internal support will be lost.
Completely agree, which is why I stated that Western nations should avoid direct involvement as far as is possible. My argument was that it is shortsighted to take the option off the table completely, and especially if it is done in response to nuclear blackmail.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:07
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
...and I would wish that people would stop talking like this ^^^^

As it stands right now, this whole sorry mess is contained...if NATO "wades in" then it won't be and it really will be the start of WW3.
You mean it is contained within boundaries that you are comfortable with. I am not however comfortable with them and the poster makes a very valid point about nuclear blackmail, I am sure many countries will take notice of NATO reticence. Now I am not a warmonger or some crazy person , I am patient and also very confident and hopeful like you that economics will do the trick in a 6-8 more weeks , but it is fair to have a discussion. To simply have the viewpoint we can do nothing 'no matter what happens' because we might be @ war seems weak to me, and contrary to the principles of UN, Nato, EU and general human decency.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:15
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
I agree they may not be able to mount a full counter offensive but given the right support they can give the bear severe anaemia to the point where he changes his terms or claims victory and retires to quell unrest on the home front.
Again, I just don't that happening any time soon, given Russia's state security apparatus. Despite all this talk of economic implosion, the Ruble has actually strengthened against the Dollar this week. If it happens all well and good (to an extent - see my previous post about being careful what you wish for), but the focus should be on helping Ukraine stop and then somehow reverse the invasion.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:23
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Indications are that something internal is happening...????

Seems to be a lot of speculation today.

IG
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:25
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Unverified shooting down of another Helicopter.

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:30
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Originally Posted by Recc
An assertion without evidence. For a start, there is no mechanism by which 'NATO' could 'wade in', this would be a decision for individual nations. Furthermore, it would not automatically lead to WWIII. There would be zero reason for Russia to choose to expand the war in response to limited foreign intervention in Ukraine. It cannot win a wider war with conventional forces, and has no interest in a strategic nuclear exchange.
There are plenty of steps in between from a conventional war to exchange of strategic nuclear weapons e.g. tactical weapons. Would/should we respond in kind or escalate ourselves? Plenty of views on this about.

My hope is that a back-channel is underway between the US and China in the event of Russian to coordinate a response in the event of Russia using even a small-scale nuke, to force them to back down 'or else' - the 'or else' being a joint military effort to nullify Russia's nuclear threat. China couldn't realistically expect to be unaffected by a wider conflict, if only from the massive economic fall-out.

Last edited by dead_pan; 11th Mar 2022 at 11:42.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:32
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
Indications are that something internal is happening...????

Seems to be a lot of speculation today.

IG
Where??

If Russia, I wouldn't be surprised given I literally just said it nothing would happen...

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:33
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Very good link showing the weaponary of both sides and what is destroyed or captured.
Spoiler
 

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:47
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
...and I would wish that people would stop talking like this ^^^^

As it stands right now, this whole sorry mess is contained...if NATO "wades in" then it won't be and it really will be the start of WW3.

When you say "it is a risk we need to take" will you be at the front end like our friends and families will be ? Three pathways lie ahead; de-escalation, containment or escalation.
There seems to be too many hell bent on pathway three from the safety of their armchairs, when the most likely and favourable outcome is de-escalation brought on by Russian populace pressures. Wade in and that internal support will be lost.
Spot on. 👍
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 11:55
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Apparently, UN Security Council to convene at Russia's request. They say USA is making chemical weapons inside Ukraine. This from Classic FM news clip 1100 hours. Given 'false flag' stuff, possibly a lead in for Russia to use the stuff in 'retaliation/self defence'.

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 12:03
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Russian truck with 4 flats and full of ammo rolling along.. I would hate to think what that is doing to his transmission.

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 12:05
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So now we have Bellarussian, Chechen and "middle eastern" troops helping the Russians invade another country.
Hard to see this as anything but a further escalation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...gainst-ukraine

Last edited by sheikhthecamel; 11th Mar 2022 at 15:46. Reason: Typo
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 12:20
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Russian truck with 4 flats and full of ammo rolling along.. I would hate to think what that is doing to his transmission.
I think the ukrainian driver just want to get it where the load is needed , and not care to much abt a rus truck's transmission )
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 12:25
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As above, we see the Russian media beginning to report back to the Russian people what is happening in Ukraine, contrary to what Putin has ordered. When State Television broadcasts anti-war messages then the "enough is enough" moment gets a little closer
How can Putin explain why his forces need the extra 16,000 "volunteers", how will he explain away why brothers, sons, husbands and fathers are not coming home. The mood inside Russia will end this conflict.

As for seized Stinger and Javelin... not seen much evidence of that but seen plenty of images of Ukrainian locals making off with abandoned Russian hardware. I take Shoigu's comments in that article with the contempt they deserve.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 12:52
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I was interested to hear former UK DCDS(Ops) Lt-Gen (rtd) Sir Simon Mayall's opinion on BBC Radio 4's Today programme say that although the Russian badly mishandled the invasion tactically at first, time is on Putin's side, and his strategy to take control of the productive parts of Ukraine is coming together.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00154pd

2.19 in.

Regarding a definition of Genocide:
Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide
Article I
The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to punish.
Article II
In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

Personally I think Putin's actions include a, b and c in respect of the Ukrainian national group - but I won't be a prosecutor or judge. He wants to eliminate the idea of a Ukrainian nation and make it part of the Russian one. I don't think he recognizes its existence and considers the language as a Russian dialect.

Last edited by SLXOwft; 11th Mar 2022 at 15:02. Reason: bed spalling
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 13:23
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In know its way back in the thread but ..,

Tartiflette Fan - Oryx apears to be run by two young Dutch journalists. One has been a Jane's contributor and the other contributes/d to Bellingcat so I think they are fairly trustworthy. They published a book on North Korea's armed forces last year. They seem to have a particular interest in military UAV programmes.

Last edited by SLXOwft; 11th Mar 2022 at 13:24. Reason: I need a new keyboard.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 13:29
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
As above, we see the Russian media beginning to report back to the Russian people what is happening in Ukraine, contrary to what Putin has ordered. When State Television broadcasts anti-war messages then the "enough is enough" moment gets a little closer
How can Putin explain why his forces need the extra 16,000 "volunteers", how will he explain away why brothers, sons, husbands and fathers are not coming home. The mood inside Russia will end this conflict.

As for seized Stinger and Javelin... not seen much evidence of that but seen plenty of images of Ukrainian locals making off with abandoned Russian hardware. I take Shoigu's comments in that article with the contempt they deserve.
And that in itself is a tantamount admission ( although probably totally incorrect and released for the consumption of the Russian public ) that all is not well, if I was a Russian citizen I would start to be asking, well if our President, the Head of State and Head of the Armed Forces is now saying I am not in control of my Armed Forces, I would be seriously worried and would be asking who is.

By trying to foist the problem off onto others he has opened up a larger can of worms for himself.

Re seized Javellins see the link below


Last edited by NutLoose; 11th Mar 2022 at 13:41.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 13:53
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Originally Posted by sheikhthecamel
So know we have Bellarussian, Chechen and "middle eastern" troops helping the Russians invade another country.
Hard to see this as anything but a further escalation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...gainst-ukraine
Are they bringing their own equipment?

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 14:15
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Originally Posted by WB627
Are they bringing their own equipment?
Hard to see them as anything other than cannon fodder whose deaths won't have to be acknowledged in Russia.
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