Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[BEagle]

[...] the damned flags

You mean the flag of a brave and determined people? 'Damned' is hardly a reasonable term to use.

[NutLoose]

Hmmmmmmm Well you got me there, I was using it as a generic term, but they are damned annoying flags in that they fill the threads, something I cannot see.

[Barksdale Boy]

There comes a time in life when, given your experience, you have to decide which side you're on. I know, especially after the last three weeks, where my loyalties lie.

[Spunky Monkey]

As Alexei Navalny is currently in prison, with the threat today of putting him in a Maximum Security Prison for an extra 13 years, it would seem there is no true opposition for the Russians to galvanise around.
If he had stayed in Germany, he could have been the 'Free Russian Government' in exile.
My concern is without a free opposition to Putin even though the war is going against him, there is no one or group to call time on this adventure, so he will just sit in Ukraine and attrit both sides down.
Any tentative opposition in Russia will be ruthlessly put down, until the country is in dire straights with starvation and extra judicial killings until it snaps and there is a bloody uprising.
Then big there could be real risk again for everyone.

[Lyneham Lad]

Report in The Guardian.

Polish, Czech and Slovenian prime ministers travel to Kyiv

Article intro:-

The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are travelling to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv even as pre-dawn Russian shelling killed more civilians in an apartment building in Ukraine’s capital. In statements from their respective capitals, the three leaders said they would be offering their support to Ukraine’s president as representatives of the other 24 EU heads of state and government.

The move by Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki, his Czech counterpart, Petr Fiala, and Slovenia’s Janez Janša was said to be an attempt to bolster Ukraine in its fight for its sovereignty. They will also meet the Ukrainian prime minister, Denys Shmyhal. Fiala tweeted: “The aim of the visit is to express the European Union’s unequivocal support for Ukraine and its freedom and independence. “At the same time, we will present a broad package of support for Ukraine and its citizens during the visit. The international community has also been informed of this visit by international organisations, including the United Nations.”

The announcement came as the emergency services in Kyiv said said two people had died in an attack on a 15-storey apartment building shortly before dawn on Tuesday.

Click the link for the remainder.

Brave move - hope they don't end up as bargaining chips (or worse) if targeted by the Russians.

[charliegolf]

Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey

Any tentative opposition in Russia will be ruthlessly put down, until the country is in dire straights with starvation and extra judicial killings until it snaps and there is a bloody uprising.
Then big there could be real risk again for everyone.

The opposition that's likely to affect things, may come from Putin's (very privileged) circle. A group of someones who don't want to live in the wilderness until they die; and who may be willing back down saying, "We've achieved our aims, be warned, NATO". And sitting on the Donbass.

CG

[NutLoose]

Here is a question for you, various yachts have sailed into internaional waters, is their anything to prevent them being arrested in international waters under sanction violations and delivered to the arresting state?

I also think they should be hitting the Families of those inner circle living abroad too CG.

[Recc]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Here is a question for you, various yachts have sailed into internaional waters, is their anything to prevent them being arrested in international waters under sanction violations and delivered to the arresting state?.

IIRC, in international waters, boarding or arrest would require the permission of the flag state (unless the vessel was suspected of piracy or slavery). In other words, the flag state would have to be part of the sanctions regime for this to be possible.

[charliegolf]

Nutty, I have, since day 1 thought the sanctions don't go far enough. Where are the children of these people studying? Every last one should be taken to Heathrow, where a single Russian aircraft can be allowed in to load them up for Moscow. Any at Eton/Harrow/Oxbridge? Let's see how Dmitri feels about State School Number 39. Mistresses too. The wealthiest million Russians need to be made to start whining. I welcomed the Duma being sanctioned. Where are their wives and children?

CG

[Ninthace]

CG Does that count as making war on women and children?

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by charliegolf

Nutty, I have, since day 1 thought the sanctions don't go far enough. Where are the children of these people studying? Every last one should be taken to Heathrow, where a single Russian aircraft can be allowed in to load them up for Moscow. Any at Eton/Harrow/Oxbridge? Let's see how Dmitri feels about State School Number 39. Mistresses too. The wealthiest million Russians need to be made to start whining. I welcomed the Duma being sanctioned. Where are their wives and children?
CG

About sanctions: they don't work as well as one might hope.
Examples include (but are not limited to):
Iran, who is still alive and well despite US sanctions for decades (since 1979).
Iraq, who sold a lot of oil after the 1991 UNSCR / cease fire agreement (loads of info on that if you did the research).
Israel, who was under a trade embargo starting in 1973 (Arab league sponsored)
Haiti: early 90's, all that did was further wreck a wrecked country, no harm done to the wealthy elites.

And now, India provides a market for Russian oil.

Twitter

If you drop by Jet Blast and the companion thread to this one, there is a link to an 8 minute insightful commentary about nations putting their interests first.
Realpolitik is a thing.
It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good.

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by charliegolf

Nutty, I have, since day 1 thought the sanctions don't go far enough. Where are the children of these people studying? Every last one should be taken to Heathrow, where a single Russian aircraft can be allowed in to load them up for Moscow. Any at Eton/Harrow/Oxbridge? Let's see how Dmitri feels about State School Number 39. Mistresses too. The wealthiest million Russians need to be made to start whining. I welcomed the Duma being sanctioned. Where are their wives and children?CG

Agree 100%. They should all have their visas revoked and be declared persona-non-grata. Let them know that their wealth is now worthless.
​

[WB627]

And now, India provides a market for Russian oil.

Time to hit India with sanctions? Certainly time to suspend any aid we send them.

[charliegolf]

Originally Posted by Ninthace

CG Does that count as making war on women and children?

Only if we are already making war on the oligarchs. We're not going to kill them if they sail a 500 million dollar yacht up the Thames.

CG

[NutLoose]

Sadly I suspected as much

Councilor of the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushtchenko:The number of victims in Mariupol is considerably higher than the official data of the police and medical facilities.If the siege ends now and we start searching for people,the number of victims will get near to 20000

Also, Fox cameraman killed and reporter seriously injured.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by WB627

Time to hit India with sanctions? Certainly time to suspend any aid we send them.

India is buying at a considerable discount to the going rate (I've read $30). And don't forget Europe is still buying Russian gas, so we're not exactly whiter than white on this.

I'm not sure how straightforward it will be to transport this oil to India - there's no pipeline as far as I'm aware. If Biden presses ahead with a full trade embargo and prevents passage of Russian ships or those bearing Russian goods through the likes of the Straights of Gibraltar, then this deal is fooked.

[Mariner9]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

India is buying at a considerable discount to the going rate (I've read $30). And don't forget Europe is still buying Russian gas, so we're not exactly whiter than white on this.

I'm not sure how straightforward it will be to transport this oil to India - there's no pipeline as far as I'm aware. If Biden presses ahead with a full trade embargo and prevents passage of Russian ships or those bearing Russian goods through the likes of the Straights of Gibraltar, then this deal is fooked.

The former Essar refinery at Vadinar is majority owned by Rosneft, so its hardly surprising they are buying Russian oil. That refinery has historically imported crude from Venezuela, so they don't have any qualms regarding the morals of their suppliers. The obvious route would be Black Sea - Med - Suez - Red Sea-Indian Ocean - Biden could perhaps lean on the Turkey and Egypt to close the Bosphorus and/or Suez Canal to all Russian ships but I cant see it happening.

[Asturias56]

Originally Posted by Mariner9

The former Essar refinery at Vadinar is majority owned by Rosneft, so its hardly surprising they are buying Russian oil. That refinery has historically imported crude from Venezuela, so they don't have any qualms regarding the morals of their suppliers. The obvious route would be Black Sea - Med - Suez - Red Sea-Indian Ocean - Biden could perhaps lean on the Turkey and Egypt to close the Bosphorus and Suez Canal to all Russian ships but I cant see it happening.

Or via Iran .................

[Sue Vêtements]

Originally Posted by WB627

Time to hit India with sanctions?

Coincidentally I was talking about that with someone just the other day. Our IT department is basically reliant on Indian contractors, so it would be interesting to see if there were sanctions on India how that would affect visas for those workers, the contract with the supplier and any differences between the offshore and onshore workforces

I'm sure we're not the only one

[Herod]

And all for a bunch of nazi sympathising corrupt Ukrainian tossers?

I assume you have a source to confirm both Nazi-sympathisers and tossers? If not, wind your neck in. Oh, I forgot; as a civilised society, we allow free speech.