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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 10th Mar 2022, 17:20
  #2981 (permalink)  
 
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mixed reaction to this, some good points some more bemusing.

And on the previous post comments, the polish people really have shown the best humanity

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Old 10th Mar 2022, 17:31
  #2982 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
Excellent news. Just because they have been sacked does not meant they lose their own loyal following. This just increases the chance that one will say " enough is enough" and go all out to topple Putin.
Perhaps a positive development if Putin recognizes that he's made an enormous mistake. Hopefully that opens the door a little to a possible settlement. The choice of replacements will be a straw in the wind on that aspect.
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 18:11
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https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...air-operations

A particularly interesting article. I think it's been referenced before on this thread, but I couldn't find the post.

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Old 10th Mar 2022, 18:46
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Ukrainian troops unbox a captured Russian UAV Eleron-3


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Old 10th Mar 2022, 18:57
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Just a quick question for the collective, if we can assume that the Tiffy force has been sent on a mission somewhere cold, whats the feasabilty of bringing the Tonka's back (again assuming you can still get crew) or are they all coke cans and razor blades?
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 19:37
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Originally Posted by Iain Atkinson
Just a quick question for the collective, if we can assume that the Tiffy force has been sent on a mission somewhere cold, whats the feasabilty of bringing the Tonka's back (again assuming you can still get crew) or are they all coke cans and razor blades?
All long gone now, all RTP/scrapped apart from the ones allocated to museums.

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Old 10th Mar 2022, 19:44
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Originally Posted by Iain Atkinson
Just a quick question for the collective, if we can assume that the Tiffy force has been sent on a mission somewhere cold, whats the feasabilty of bringing the Tonka's back (again assuming you can still get crew) or are they all coke cans and razor blades?
Is there not a Squadron or more hangered up? I'm always surprised when systems are slashed then done away with so quick , harrier GR9s for instance. If this invasion has proven anything is that we maybe need to plan more of a what if, reserve. had the Tristars been up-kept just a bit, they could have been left to deteriorate slower at a current Raf field or alike.
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 19:54
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans

Ukrainian troops unbox a captured Russian UAV Eleron-3


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kET4nvyKoI&t=85s
Could the Ukrainians use it though? I would expect it's software to be encrypted and it's hardware locked somehow?
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 19:56
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Originally Posted by Trumpet trousers
It's been that way for several days. Some long crew duty hours for all those involved, but I'm guessing they wouldn't want it any other way.
The guys and gals have been doing long hours for years over multiple theatres and are still working as hard as ever.
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 20:04
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Originally Posted by India Four Two
They have some recent combat experience in Syria, but perhaps the scale of this one is a few orders of magnitude higher.
There may be a political aspect to this (internal to Russia) that is opaque to the casual observer.
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 21:08
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Mariupol from space showing the destruction

https://twitter.com/search?q=%24bksy&src=cashtag_click


The destruction of #Mariupol was shown from space. Roads, residential areas and infrastructure were destroyed. More than 1000 civilians were killed only in Mariupol. This is a real genocide! #StopRussia#UkraineRussiaWar


[

Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Mar 2022 at 21:37.
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 21:25
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Spoiler
 



Media: SBU kills member of Ukrainian negotiations team suspected of treason.

This item is part of our running news digest
March 5, 2022 1:49 pm by The Kyiv Independent news deskAccording to Ukrainska Pravda sources, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation that met with Russia, was shot dead by the Security Service of Ukraine officers as they were trying to detain him. The man was allegedly Denys Kirieiev, a former deputy chairman of Oschadbank. The SBU had “strong evidence” he was leaking information to Russia.
Film of the attempted arrest



@KhawajaSaleem

A CCTV video of the death of the former #Kiev SBU deputy appeared. It turns out that he shot first and a fire fight erupted. #UkraineRussiaWar#UkraineUnderAttaсk#UkraineInvasion#UkraineRussia#UkraineRussiaCrisis#Ukriane#Ucrania#Ucraina#RussianUkrainianWar#RussiaInvasion

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Old 10th Mar 2022, 21:30
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Originally Posted by munnst
Could the Ukrainians use it though? I would expect it's software to be encrypted and it's hardware locked somehow?
I wouldn't be surprised if they have also captured the truck with all the control and surveillance gear in to too. This kit is intended for use in the field by the common soldiery, so doubt if it's that difficult.
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 21:53
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First analysis/count of losses of both sides that I have seen from an independent source ( I don't actually know who Oryx is, but they are presented as unaligned )

"So far, 164 Russian tanks have been destroyed, damaged or captured, according to the specialist monitor Oryx, which is tracking losses using photo or video evidence. Oryx says for Russian armoured fighting vehicles, the number is 102. Ukraine has lost 47 tanks and 39 fighting vehicles from its smaller force.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...orces-kyiv-war

Losses as estimated by the Kiev Independent below for comparison.


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Old 10th Mar 2022, 22:11
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
More than 1000 civilians were killed only in Mariupol. This is a real genocide!
It may be an atrocity, I think it will probably go down as a war crime, but it's not genocide.
Please stop robbing that word of meaning by misusing it.
Russia is attempting conquest, not extermination. Genocide is about extermination.
Conquest by war gets people killed, unfortunately.
If the Russian program was for the extermination of Ukranians, then you could fairly charge the with genocide. And I'd join you with such voice as I have.
Weirdly, the claimed goal is to bring Ukraine (or parts of it) back into the Russian fold. That's a curious case of inclusion, not extermination.
(Granted, those assertions may be less than 100% honest, and my cynical old self sees this as a naked land grab).
I get the idea that Emperor Putin wants the Ukranians to be his subjects, not exterminated.
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 22:43
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It would be interesting to see the Kyiv independent figures updated as percentages of total Russian forces deployed to the Ukraine... noting these numbers may be considerably over-estimated and there's no real way of gauging firm figures.
Suspect the Russians themselves don't even know for sure.
I seem to remember the max figure of 180,000 personnel mentioned as deployed on the borders immediately pre-invasion.
Based on that - very crudely Russia has lost approx:
  • Six percent of its personnel deployed on the borders pre-invasion
  • 26 per cent of it's 1200 tanks deployed on the borders per-invasion
  • 16 per cent of it's estimated 300 jets deployed within easy reach of Ukraine pre-invasion
Wonder what the figures are for artillery pieces and TELs?
Probably the only people with a firm handle on the true losses are the Russia desk at Langley, in close contact with the NSA and NRO.


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Old 10th Mar 2022, 22:52
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
It may be an atrocity, I think it will probably go down as a war crime, but it's not genocide.
Please stop robbing that word of meaning by misusing it.
Russia is attempting conquest, not extermination. Genocide is about extermination.
Conquest by war gets people killed, unfortunately.
If the Russian program was for the extermination of Ukranians, then you could fairly charge the with genocide. And I'd join you with such voice as I have.
Weirdly, the claimed goal is to bring Ukraine (or parts of it) back into the Russian fold. That's a curious case of inclusion, not extermination.
(Granted, those assertions may be less than 100% honest, and my cynical old self sees this as a naked land grab).
I get the idea that Emperor Putin wants the Ukranians to be his subjects, not exterminated.
I can’t win, I would put a link in quotes and a prťcis to the link, but I get grief for using quotes, so I post the direct link INCLUDING THEIR WORDS and I am accused of robbing the word genocide of its meaning.

Pray tell me what word would use to describe surrounding a city then systematically trying to obliterate the population of the said city utilising artillery and missile strikes? and arranging ceasefires where you continue to target those civilians attempting to escape, that is plain and simply extermination and sod all to do with conquering anyone, if that was your goal you would isolate a city without raining destruction down upon it and move on with your advances.
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 23:23
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
A CCTV video of the death of the former #Kiev SBU deputy appeared. It turns out that he shot first and a fire fight erupted
I wouldn't want to be in that lead vehicle. It's a bit down-rangey
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 23:49
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More farmers at it.


Ukrainian farmers already have more tanks than in some armies of the world. #Ukraine#UkraineInvasion#UkraineWillResist#War#StandWithUkraine️



Vitaliy Popov
@Vitaliy23404583

Another trophy of Ukrainian farmers. #Ukraine#UkraineInvasion#UkraineWillResist#War#StandWithUkraine️
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Old 10th Mar 2022, 23:52
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Originally Posted by MJ89
Is there not a Squadron or more hangered up? I'm always surprised when systems are slashed then done away with so quick , harrier GR9s for instance. If this invasion has proven anything is that we maybe need to plan more of a what if, reserve. had the Tristars been up-kept just a bit, they could have been left to deteriorate slower at a current Raf field or alike.
The basic reason is money. You'd have to keep them in a controlled environment with regular maintenance so they didn't deteriorate. That means qualified, dedicated engineering staff You'd have to have aircrew with currency to be able to fly them, or a method to quickly bring former aircrew back to currency. You'd need to ensure any weaponry is maintained as well - no point in having an AIM-9 equipped airframe when all your in-date missile stocks are ASRAAM for example.

Then you have the political element - perhaps one reason the stored Harriers were got rid of was so no-one could ever restore them?
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