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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 12th Mar 2022, 07:34
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Quoteriginally Posted by Ninthace View Post
An air burst.where the fireball does not to uch the ground produces comparatively little fallout as the only irradiated material is the bomb casing and the fission products of the bomb itself..
Well that's a relief! CG

As in War Game - the '60's BBCTV "documentary"
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 10:38
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In any army a proportion will not be front line troops but will be employed in logistics and other non-combat roles. If being optmistic we say for every Ivan in his tank there are two other soldiers in support then the direct combat numbers on his 150,000 will be 50,000. These will be spread over three fronts so perhaps it's not surprising that progress is slow. If Putin's intention to conquer and hold the whole country then he is going to have to deploy far more troops.
In terms of how many if we look at the invasion of Czechslovakia in 1968 the intial invasion force was 250,000 rising to 500,000 later. This for a smaller country than Ukraine and where the resistance was minimal.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 11:40
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On the Beach is a great novel (the best bit is the motor racing), but actually implausable. Neville Shute was a great novelist, but his knowledge of nuclear physics and the persistence of radiation was rudimentary (as was that of even those involved in developing the atom bomb at the time). The idea that massive contamination would slowly (over more than a year, if my memory serves) spread from the nornthern hemisphere and overwhelm the south was popular in the 50s but doesn't hold water. It was replaced by the more plausible nuclear winter theory that would arise from a massive nuclear exchange. This is not meant to be encouraging ...
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 11:50
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Ukrainian Farmers go on the offensive !
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 12:03
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Reuters stated that Russians have shelled a mosque in Mariupol and there were 80 civilians seeking shelter.
Just wondering, if this type of atrocity starts to raise some eyebrows amongst certain groups occasionally called jihadists amongst many other names.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 12:31
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Apparently the Ukrainians have inflicted heavy losses on some Russian force on the outskirts of Kiev using artillery fire. A couple of thoughts about this - I wonder how good the Russians are are laying their own artillery fire, given they don't appear to have much in the way of airborne assets either spotting or directing fire, hence are having only limited success against an opponent which knows the ground and manoeuvre as required? The Ukrainians in contrast may well have access to western reconnaissance data and imagery (satellite etc), giving them much more of a real-time picture.

Also, 'that' convoy appears to have dispersed off the road into the surrounding countryside (looking at those Maxar images), so fewer worries about collateral damage for the gunners.

Another thought, given the Russian forces are presumably stood-to during daylight hours, night-time harassment and interdiction artillery fire would be very useful in depriving them of sleep. This will really grind their morale.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 12:35
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Reuters stated that Russians have shelled a mosque in Mariupol and there were 80 civilians seeking shelter.
Just wondering, if this type of atrocity starts to raise some eyebrows amongst certain groups occasionally called jihadists amongst many other names.
The Turks too.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 12:43
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The eventual results of non intervention

By now it has become obvious that economical sanctions will not stop the destruction of Ukraine. We can expect another 2-3 millions refugees displaced mostly into Western European nations that have barely recovered from the consequences of a major epidemic event. The capacity of Western Europe to assimilate this influx of refugees is limited. The probability of further extension of Russian expansion into adjacent countries and further massive enforced emigration to Western Europe jeopardize their survival. The major market disruption will have serious consequences for the European economy. The lack of Ukrainian grain production and subsequent price increase is going to have major disruption to the sahalian regions which depend on Ukrainian wheat. The persistent human right violations including civilian targets, central health institutions such as hospitals are obvious crimes against humanity. The prospects of a nuclear war avoidance have become invalid. Unless the western countries begin to seriously consider stopping this nonsense the ripple effect of the ukranian invasion will devastate the stability of the world. The sub Saharan population will also continue their emigration into a debilitated Europe which can barely afford the massive ukranian load.

Last edited by magyarflyer; 12th Mar 2022 at 13:33.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 12:43
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I just might not pay the credit card bill next month. This is getting a bit of a worry.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 13:14
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CG

I'm glad that Ninthace's assertion is a relief: the point is that it is true.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 13:19
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Originally Posted by magyarflyer
By now is has become obvious that economical sanctions will not stop tithe destruction of Ukraine. We can expect another 2-3 millions refugees displaced mostly into Western European nations that have barely recovered from the consequences of a major epidemic event. The capacity of Western Europe to assimilate this influx of refugees is limited. The probability of further extension of Russian expansion into adjacent countries and further massive enforced emigration to Western Europe jeopardize their survival. The major market disruption will have serious consequences for the European economy. The lack of Ukrainian grain production and subsequent price increase is going to have major disruption to the sahalian regions which depend on Ukrainian wheat. The persistent human right violations including civilian targets, central health institutions such as hospitals are obvious crimes against humanity. The prospects of a nuclear war avoidance have become invalid. Unless the western countries begin to seriously consider stopping this nonsense the ripple effect of the ukranian invasion will devastate the stability of the world. The sub Saharan population will also continue their emigration into a debilitated Europe which can barely afford the massive ukranian load.

You contradict yourself there. If Western Europe is in that bad a shape, why would "sub Saharan population will also continue their emigration" ?
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 13:27
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
You contradict yourself there. If Western Europe is in that bad a shape, why would "sub Saharan population will also continue their emigration" ?
Everything is relative! He raises good points imho.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 13:40
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Russian jets are avoiding Ukraine's airspace

Pentagon says some Russian jets are avoiding Ukraine's airspace during sorties to avoid being shot down (msn.com)

  • he Pentagon believes Russia is flying about 200 sorties every day, although many never enter Ukrainian air space.
  • The Russians can fire cruise missles from planes on the Russia side of the border without risking a strike by Ukraine's air defenses.
  • Ukraine still has about 56 operational jets flying five to 10 hours every day, according senior US defense official.
The Pentagon says some Russian jets are avoiding Ukrainian airspace, apparently to avoid being shot done by Ukraine's air defense systems.

, a senior US defense official said the Pentagon assesses that Russia is flying about 200 sorties every day but some never enter Ukraine's air space. Instead, the Russians are able to fire aerial-mounted cruise missiles at Ukraine from planes on the Russian side of the border.

It was widely assumed by defense analysts that Russia would quickly gain air superiority during its invasion of Ukraine, but Russia's Aerospace Forces have had played little role as the ground forces have struggled to take major cities in the face of stalwart Ukraine fighters.

Many observers were expecting Russian bombers to knock out Ukraine's radar installations and surface-to-air missile batteries, leaving air superiority fighters like the Su-35 to attack Ukraine's aircraft as it moved its own SAM systems into Ukraine. But Russia failed to do so and Ukraine's smaller air force and its missiles have downed Russian planes.

Similarly, Russia's fleet of combat helicopters has largely gone unusued, another signal that Russian commanders are aware of the risks posed by air defenses and increasingly shoulder-fired missiles like the Stingers the US is sending.

In the first days of the war in Ukraine, researchers at Oryx ó a blog that tracks military equipment losses through open-source data ó found that Russia lost a number of combat jets to Ukraine's defense systems.

The skirting of Ukrainian air space suggests Russia warplanes are aware of these still considerable dangers.

In an interview on Wednesday, an expert on the Russian military said he's seeing signs that its air force is "risk averse" and said there's still debate as to why.

"Maybe they're saving their aircraft in case this conflict goes wider," said Jeffrey Edmonds, an expert on the Russian military with the Arlington, Va.-based research organization CNA.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 13:47
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Russia has taken to trying to jam NATO plane's radar

Intelligence: Russia has taken to trying to jam NATO plane's radar (msn.com)

Russia has been using Belarus as a springboard for many of its air operations in Ukraine, according to intelligence collected by NATO surveillance planes flying over the Polish-Ukrainian border and radar seen by CNN.

CNN accompanied NATO's Flying Squadron 2 on one such surveillance mission on Thursday. Within two hours of taking off at 8 a.m. CET, the radar on board the NATO AWACS plane -- short for Airborne Warning and Control System -- picked up about a dozen Russian-made planes idling in Belarus just north of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, NATO tactical director Denis Guillaume told CNN.

Hours later, at least nine Russian-made planes were spotted entering Ukrainian airspace from Belarus, appearing to head toward Kyiv, the radar showed.

The "vast majority" of the Russian-made fighter jets that NATO forces have seen entering Ukrainian airspace since Russia's invasion began have originated in Belarus, the NATO mission's technical director told CNN on board Thursday's flight. On one particularly "active" day last week, NATO forces saw about 20 Russian jets heading to Kyiv from Belarus, he said. The military aircraft taking off from Belarus and entering Ukrainian airspace have been in support of Russian military operations in Ukraine, the NATO airmen told CNN.

Among the major questions looming over the war has been whether Belarusian forces have directly

entered the conflict to support Russia. But the NATO troops said they could not answer that -- Belarus and Russia use the same Soviet-era MiG-29s, they said, so it is difficult to say in real time who is actually operating them. Ukrainian pilots also use the MiG-29s, they noted, so it is similarly unclear how contested Ukraine's airspace has become.

Still, some signs are obvious, they say. For example, the jets flying into Ukraine from Russian-allied Belarus are clearly not Ukrainian.

The AWACS plane on which CNN flew Thursday is one of the few military assets owned by NATO itself, rather than donated by a member country, and the fleet of 14 AWACS planes together conduct nearly two dozen missions per week, spying more than 400 kilometers east to ensure that no unfriendly aircraft are headed toward NATO's airspace.

The missions are routine but have become particularly "intense" since Russia invaded Ukraine, one of the co-pilots told CNN. NATO has stepped up its defense of the eastern flank members over the last several weeks, and Thursday's surveillance flight was particularly long, requiring a midair refueling.

As the AWACS flew its mission on Thursday, a Russian spy plane circled over Belarus doing similar surveillance in the opposite direction, the airmen pointed out. That has become typical, as has spotting Russian fighter jets -- mostly MiG-29s -- performing defensive exercises nearby.

The Russians have also taken to trying to jam the NATO plane's radar, an annoying but inevitable occurrence given how visible the giant spy plane is.

"It's not a secret we are here, and we don't want it to be a secret," said the NATO technical director.

One question the airmen decidedly refused to answer was whether the intelligence they gather, which is ostensibly for use only by members of the NATO alliance, is being provided to Kyiv.

"I cannot answer that question," Guillaume said firmly.

"The only thing I can tell you right now is that we, as NATO allies, are sharing the data with NATO countries," the NATO technical director echoed.

What the NATO member countries do with that intelligence, however, is at their discretion, the NATO technical director hinted.

The caution reflects NATO's fraught position as the war drags on: As an organization, it continues to underline that it is not an active player in the conflict and that it is providing no direct assistance to Ukraine so as not to risk provoking further Russian aggression that some fear could even include an attack on NATO territory.

But its member states, including the US and UK, have openly touted their intelligence and military contributions to Ukraine, which have been clearly aimed at blunting the Russian military's advances.

The NATO surveillance plane is capable of more than just intelligence-gathering, though, and can call in tactical operations if needed. For Thursday's mission, for example, the plane was controlling fighter aircraft on the Polish-Belarusian border "in case there is a threat to NATO territory," Guillaume said.

Any action, though, "would have to be in line with the rules of engagement," he added. "We are still in a peacetime posture."
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 14:41
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Apparently the Ukrainians have inflicted heavy losses on some Russian force on the outskirts of Kiev using artillery fire. A couple of thoughts about this - I wonder how good the Russians are are laying their own artillery fire, given they don't appear to have much in the way of airborne assets either spotting or directing fire, hence are having only limited success against an opponent which knows the ground and manoeuvre as required? The Ukrainians in contrast may well have access to western reconnaissance data and imagery (satellite etc), giving them much more of a real-time picture.

Also, 'that' convoy appears to have dispersed off the road into the surrounding countryside (looking at those Maxar images), so fewer worries about collateral damage for the gunners.

Another thought, given the Russian forces are presumably stood-to during daylight hours, night-time harassment and interdiction artillery fire would be very useful in depriving them of sleep. This will really grind their morale.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 14:43
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There's no identification about where this took place, but possibly an earlier attack on the convoy that was hit in Brovary yesterday. V good quality video.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=782658912708735
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 15:10
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
You contradict yourself there. If Western Europe is in that bad a shape, why would "sub Saharan population will also continue their emigration" ?
simply because the Sahel would still be worse than Western Europe
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 15:35
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
An air burst.where the fireball does not touch the ground produces comparatively little fallout as the only irradiated material is the bomb casing and the fission products of the bomb itself..
I always believed the detritus drawn up by the ensuing vacuum was irradiated and became the fallout ? Every days a schoolday.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 16:33
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Originally Posted by phil9560
I always believed the detritus drawn up by the ensuing vacuum was irradiated and became the fallout ? Every days a schoolday.
But that is what he is saying.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 16:35
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
But that is what he is saying.
No he isn't.Or at least not in my interpretation.
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