Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by SLXOwft

I believe the BL755s dropped by SHARs during the Falklands War were referred to as Custard Bombs, at least by 800 RNAS.

Oh! I think I understand .... even if fleetingly.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by pr00ne

NLAW is only part of what is being delivered, in huge numbers. At least 6 nations are supplying Javelin, other ATGW systems are being supplied by many other nations, plus Stinger and other hand held SAM's.

I was very surprised to read that part of the German contribution is supplies of Panzerfaust 3: I didn't know they had kept on the name from WW II, though having said that, the appearance is not radically different.

[ORAC]

For the first time, more than half of Finns are in favour of their country joining NATO, according to a poll commissioned by public broadcasting company Yle.

https://twitter.com/evan_rosenfeld/s...461704192?s=21

[cynicalint]

Originally Posted by tdracer

I saw where Ukraine is trying to make the case that Russia isn't a legitimate member of the UN Security Council. Basically, the UN charter specifies the Soviet Union - a collection of 13 states - and when the Soviet Union fell apart, Russia wasn't entitled to unilaterally take its place.
I'm not optimistic that they'll win, but it might be good for some popcorn.

Pr00ne,
What is your professional take on that? I feel that if there were mileage in it it would have been addressed before now?

[ORAC]

The last texts of a Russian conscript to his mother before he was killed.

https://twitter.com/verambergen/stat...870150146?s=21

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by NAROBS

one wonders how many of the provisions of the UN Charter and associated conventions have to be broken before they exclude Russia from the Security Council ?

Sorry, you can't, they are a charter member of the club. Without the protections of veto, they don't join. This isn't rocket science. UN is not a matter of equality in membership. Some members are more equal than others. Russia is one such member.

Your appeal to "just war theory" will probably evoke sniggers in Moscow, and a few other places.

@tdracer:
Uh, no, that one isn't gonna go anywhere.
Republic of China (that would be the government that went into exile on Taiwan, Kuomintang), was the original UN Member, but eventually People Republic of China replaced them. You can thank Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon for getting the ball rolling on that.
The Russians were not dumb enough not to ensure that they were the replacement for Soviet Union when CCCP became CIS after the Wall fell.

Mind you, I grinned in empathetic support the other day, about an hour after Putin launched "Operation let's go get Ukraine" when the Ukrainian (was watching this on CSPAN) ambassador addressed the Security Council and said to the sitting president of that body (the Russian gent) "you should vacate your chair, since your country started this war."

Hey, may as well raise the point.

@ORAC: what are the odds that bit you posted is factual, versus "something posted on the internet of dubious provenance" in your estimation?

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Beamr

of course there could be an addition in the answer: "fortunately Ukraine is being delivered a multitude of other weaponry that uplifts the total performance capability."
ok?

The trouble has got to be distribution across the country though, I noted the film of the guns and ammunition being supplied to the public they were using dumper trucks as opposed to military, which makes sense, less of an obvious target.

[Paul C]

I was under the assumption that the S400 was the bees knees of air defence systems so am surprised that Ukraine seems able to operate their TB2s over the battle space and possibly even into Russia.

[NutLoose]

At the moment, military pilots from Ukraine are in Poland. Today they receive 29 Polish MiG-29s. With full weapons and electronics. 🇵🇱
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #StopRussia #StandingWithUkraine

1st March

quite a haul

[NutLoose]

These farmers are getting ambitious, an SA-8 Gecko system, just what you need to scare low flying birds off your crops.

Iqbal Ul khair
@lhair_ul
·
16m
If confirmed, this could be the funniest part of Russia's war with Ukraine. Today, a Ukrainian farmer stole a Russian military track using his farm tractor. Kyiv #UkraineRussiaWar Poland #UkraineRussiaWar

[tartare]

That Russian convoy moving to Kyiv is now 64km long!
Oh for a couple of fully loaded A-10s... what a Turkey shoot.

[NutLoose]

I would have thought with the off road mud issues that appear to be hampering the Russians, take out the front and rear of that convoy and it will be a target rich environment.

mud problems see

https://news7f.com/russian-tank-stuc...lt-on-ukraine/

[RatherBeFlying]

Let's Put In a cheer for Чернoзем aka black earth aka mud.

The Finns specialised in mottis. Disable the front and back of a convoy traversing a forest, mud an effective substitute, but forest supplies better cover. Chop the convoy into pieces. Target field kitchens (and fuel tankers).

Bring in the in-laws. Thermal sights helpful in night attacks.

It may be worth noting that penetrations are close to the borders, a possible additional confirmation of fuel shortages to be added to the many reports of Russians running out of gas.

Also of note are the generous contributions of aircraft and ordinance from Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia. Beyond Lukashenko and Xi, Putin seems short of friends.

[Sue Vêtements]

Funny how General Mud and General Winter were the Soviets' friends in WWII. It looks like General Mud has changed sides now

Have to say I find it odd that nobody seems to have mentioned the similarities (and obvious differences) between these events and Operation Barbarossa

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by ORAC

For the first time, more than half of Finns are in favour of their country joining NATO, according to a poll commissioned by public broadcasting company Yle.

Similar situation and scenario in Sweden. Putin really has got the exact opposite of what he wanted to achieve here.

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by cynicalint

Pr00ne,
What is your professional take on that? I feel that if there were mileage in it it would have been addressed before now?

If the case was made back in 1991 then it may have had some legitimacy. The fact that it wasn't, and Russia has continued in situ as a voting member for the subsequent 21 years and been accepted as such by the rest of the permanent Security Council and indeed the entire UN membership would, I imagine, render any attempt to make such a claim now null and void.

Until the veto of the members of the Permanent security council is removed the UN will not amount to a jot in cases such as Ukraine.

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by tartare

That Russian convoy moving to Kyiv is now 64km long!
Oh for a couple of fully loaded A-10s... what a Turkey shoot.

I think their mobile SAM and gun systems would be a real issue for anything like an A-10.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements

Have to say I find it odd that nobody seems to have mentioned the similarities (and obvious differences) between these events and Operation Barbarossa

this was discussed already before the invasion started.

[Pali]

Originally Posted by NAROBS

Even after absorbing this info, I still wonder why Russia had to invade Ukraine now, as I understand that Ukrainian membership of NATO is effectively barred by that country having an on going border dispute. The issue was effectively settled when Russia took Crimea and Donbass in 2014. So why go further ?

Any statements about "NATO is closing to Russian borders" thus endangering security of Russia is a mere smoke screen. The real reason is the fact that country after country escaped out of the grip of this shrinking empire. Security is only a secondary thought. The key word is domination. They simply wanted to overthrow current government and install Yanukovich as a puppet leader and renew the old glory step by step.

If you really want to understand the doctrine of Russian imperialism just study the tsar's titles listed in the constitution of 1906, grab the map and locate all the aforementioned duchies, principalities and lands of interest. You will find the territory of many subdued non-Russian nations which simply wanted to escape the empire but in the Russian thinking it is Russia, period.

Art. 37:
By the Grace of God, We, NN, Emperor and Autocrat of All the Russias, Moscow, Kiev, Vladimir, Novgorod; Tsar of Kazan, Tsar of Astrakhan, Tsar of Poland, Tsar of Siberia, Tsar of Chersonese Taurian, Tsar of Georgia; Lord of Pskov and Grand Prince of Smolensk, Lithuania, Volhynia, Podolia, Finland; Prince of Estland, Livland, Courland, Semigalia, Samogitia, Belostok, Karelia, Tver, Yugra, Perm, Vyatka, Bolgar and others; Lord and Grand Prince of Nizhny Novgorod, Chernigov, Ryazan, Polotsk, Rostov, Yaroslavl, Beloozero, Udoria, Obdoria, Kondia, Vitebsk, Mstislav, and all of the northern countries Master; and Lord of Iberia, Kartli, and Kabardia lands and Armenian provinces; hereditary Sovereign and ruler of the Circassian and Mountainous Princes and of others; Lord of Turkestan; Heir of Norway; Duke of Schleswig-Holstein, Stormarn, Dithmarschen, and Oldenburg, and others, and others, and others.

Putin thinks of himself as a successor of tsars and considers any questioning of the original scope of empire as an insult.

[tartare]

There's something particularly horrible about armoured battles.
The immense forces involved - the heat and mangling of really thick steel - God - you'd never get me anywhere near a tank.