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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 3rd May 2022, 07:23
  #5021 (permalink)  
 
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@Nutloose: "And another facility in Moscow catches fire. I am beginning to wonder if these are not orchestrated to sell war to the population on the May Day parade."

Hmmm... definitely food for thought.
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Old 3rd May 2022, 07:41
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ORAC, regarding an earlier question, a little lateral thinking produces some answers. ('nuff said on a public forum.)
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Old 3rd May 2022, 09:23
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
And another facility in Moscow catches fire. I am beginning to wonder if these are not orchestrated to sell war to the population on the May Day parade.
It has been point out on social media that fires are not uncommon in Russia due to poor safety standards, maintenance etc. Apparently they happen all the time.

Of course the emerging view in Russia that these fires are being started deliberately by Ukrainian SOF etc is super-helpful to Ukraine in that it creates disquiet in the minds of Russians, also ties down state security resources to chase these these phantoms.

FWIW I don't think Putin needs to do any groundwork to prepare his public for a declaration of war; they must already have the sense things aren't going to plan.
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Old 3rd May 2022, 09:35
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There were more explosions in Belogrod over night and this is odd


but the answer is here apparently, Gerasimov had an escort


then this and some said there were explosions reported as his jet departed. trying to take another pop at the General?

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Old 3rd May 2022, 10:10
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Originally Posted by albatross
Well so where do they find pilots to fly any new airframe which has new technologies?
Newly hired/trained.

Those flying original metal (F-16/Mig-29) gradually retire to commercial jobs or to higher military hierarchy, together with the aircraft being retired/sold-off/donated.
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Old 3rd May 2022, 10:28
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Rather like the Flying Tigers of WW2, though a modern jet requires more than just a few pilots, maintenance and support is also needed.
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Old 3rd May 2022, 10:40
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As a non combatant, I try not to post on here, so I posted this in the other place yesterday.....

Given that the USSR play book has always been to deport large quantities of the indigenous population and replace them with home grown Russians when they move in and take over, it is hardly surprising that there are a lot of ethnically non Russians in Russia, who are only too happy to go around and set fire to things as pay back for the many wrongs done to them by the Kremlin.

As ye sow, so shall ye reap.....
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Old 3rd May 2022, 11:02
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Old 3rd May 2022, 11:43
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Ever wonder why all those Russian trucks had tyre issues and were lost because of it, read on

https://www.defenceview.in/cheap-chi...WCP_mo49E1V8_k

ccording to report published by Dailymail UK due to the use of cheap quality Chinese tyres in Russian military vehicles, Russian military vehicles are regularly getting stuck in the mud. Corrupt Russian officers may have saved cash on tyres for their trucks and armoured vehicles by opting for cheap Chinese alternatives.

With Russian vehicles and armoured trucks getting stuck in the mud when veering off road, officials in the West are pointing to Chinese exports as a key factor behind the stalled invasion of Ukraine.

The poor quality of the tyres has meant Russian vehicles often get mired in difficult terrain, slowing the military advance of Putin‘s forces as the weather turns wetter.

NATO vehicles use Michelin XZL tyres, but Chinese businesses often copy the intellectual property of Western companies to produce cheaper copies in greater quantities.
Ukrainian forces capture a Russian army vehicle near Kyiv with the tyres burst. Corrupt Russian officers may have saved cash on tyres for their trucks and armoured vehicles by opting for cheap Chinese alternatives

Russian generals are notoriously corrupt. Russia has a defense budget of around £60billion a year, but much of that budget is siphoned off at various levels,’ an intelligence source told the New Zealand Times.

‘The impact of this is that the Russians are forced to buy cheap tires to fit on expensive armored vehicles, and they just don’t work.’


China’s version of the tire is the Yellow Sea YS20, of significantly poorer quality, according to self-described ‘tyre expert’ and University of Chicargo academic Karl Muth.

A set of 50 Michelin XZL tyres retails on Alibaba at approximately $36,000, whereas 50 sets of the Chinese equivalent retails at around $208.

Poor vehicle maintenance could also partially explain the stalling. Leaving tyres in direct sunlight for months on end often causes them to rip, adding to the amount of abandoned vehicles Ukrainians have encountered in various parts of the country during the war.
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Old 3rd May 2022, 12:08
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Itís not a matter of whether itís scientifically feasible or not (on that basis you can query why the Russians designed this weapon at all).

It the sentiment expressed that Irish neutrality means nothing to them.
Irish neutrality is irrevant to Russia. Ireland is not Russian, so the lack of defence is welcomed as it will make it easier to exterminate the inhabitants.
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Old 3rd May 2022, 13:43
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I don't know if there is any truth in this from London based CityA.M Interesting times..

https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-hi...d-ukraine-war/

Kremlin on high alert as coup rumours grow in Moscow: Disgruntled generals join FSB looking to oust Putin and end Ukraine war

Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

The top of Putin’s former employer, the Russian security service FSB, is said to be so frustrated about the lack of military progress in Ukraine that it has reached out to a number of generals and former generals, according to various media reports in Eastern Europe and Germany.

In particular group called the ‘siloviki’, former FSB officers who are active in Russian politics, is said to be pushing hard to oust Putin, together with former officers from the GRU, KGB and FSO, other Russian intelligence units.The idea a coup may be imminent is further strengthened by social media activity across Russia and eastern Europe, which has gone into overdrive in the last 24 hours. Moreover, analysts in and outside Russia have said all signs are there Putin may face a coup.

The Russian president is reportedly “very worried” a coup may be imminent and has tightened security in and around the Kremlin.

“Does it matter? It matters a lot,” said Russian security expert Andrei Soldatov told The Center for European Policy Analysis.

The move was seen as a clear sign Putin is deeply concerned about the FSB’s role in the offensive against Ukraine and he fears forces within the intelligence apparatus may be working against him, Western officials told the Agentura platform.

“Both men have played a major role in intelligence operations against Ukraine for several years and highly likely played a major role in the planning for the invasion,” one said.

“There could be significant changes at senior levels in the FSB.”

Russian analyst Alexey Muraviev is also convinced that the Russian President is facing a coup from his top military and intelligence chiefs.

Muraviev told Sky News Australia that an attempt to remove Putin may be imminent because “I think that there have been tensions between Russia and the intelligence community and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.”

“I think that sort of false narrative was presented to them by the Supreme Commander in Chief, and when it fired back when the Russians began taking heavy casualties, Putin began quietly blaming the security services,” he continued.

“I don’t think went really well also because he’s coming from within the security apparatus.”“About the initial planning and the initial phase of the invasion where the Russian military naturally assume that they’re going there as liberators rather than the invaders,” he explained.
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Old 3rd May 2022, 15:56
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Rather incoherent ............ was the writer under the affluence of incohol?

Speed reading gives the bullet points but a slow read is hard work.

And, no, my mid-afternoon drink was Yorkshire tea with a peanut biscuit.
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Old 3rd May 2022, 16:14
  #5033 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I don't know if there is any truth in this from London based CityA.M Interesting times..

https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-hi...d-ukraine-war/
Interesting situation.

External to Ukraine, the "just bad luck, could happen to anybody..." issues have at least 3 situations that may be occurring, and it may be a mix of any or all of these.
  1. Ukraine irregular attacks;
  2. FSB disinformation program;
  3. Civil unrest.
A number of the attacks are probable to have been done by Ukraine directly, the airstrikes etc. Some of the ground strikes may be occurring from the same source of irregulars.

The KGB/FSB does disinformation at every turn, that is a certainty, and could be a number of these cases, but not all. It is unlikely that they would deliberately set off fuel supplies on the MSR to their own troops, but all is possible.

Civil unrest is probable in a number of the events, The Belorus rail interruptions are done by dissatisfied Belorussians, apparently spontaneously reacting to the objectionable actions of the Russians. Sakhalin Island seems to be an odd place to have bad fire safety all of a sudden, but all things are possible.

The Russian media is totally controlled by the Kremlin, no question, but the impact of sanctions, and the rapidly rising death toll of Russian conscripts and contracted soldiers, generals and captains seem unlikely to be overlooked by the families that have been affected. The Russian military is depleted to a significant extent in manpower and munitions, to an extent that hasn't happened since 1917 and 1941. The 23 odd states/cities that make up the members of the Russian Federation may be about to come apart at the seams. The centralized control of Soviet times was replaced by the centralized control of the kleptocratic government that has been in place since 2000.

"meet new boss, same as old boss..."

The internal security of Russia right now may become more of a problem than Putins perceived existential threat from the Ukrainians. the wild cards that then come out are many.

Interesting times.

Remembering the god old days.

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Old 3rd May 2022, 16:41
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Ever wonder why all those Russian trucks had tyre issues and were lost because of it, read on

It's not just cheap tires , for anyone who is a fan of rus tyre technology this is also an interesting read
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Old 3rd May 2022, 17:04
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Re the sausage king murder, they have been watching to much Game of Thrones, still better in a sauna than on the throne so to speak
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Old 4th May 2022, 03:45
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Ukraine hits snake island with UAV. First goes comms and then an ammunition store or such takes hit. Secondaries all over the place.
I'd bet my pension that within a few years all the armed forces in the world will be having significant amounts of UAV's, both heavy and light, long range and short range.

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Old 4th May 2022, 06:48
  #5037 (permalink)  
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Reference the heavy lift drones mentioned by Boris in his speech to the Ukrainian Parliament. From The Times.

A military source said that between 20 and 30 Malloy T150 heavy lift drones, which have been in trials with the Royal Marines, would be delivered to the country to help resupply Ukrainian troops.
68Kg payload and 70Km range.

https://www.malloyaeronautics.com/t150/
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Old 4th May 2022, 08:58
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Its interesting as AFAIK there appears to be little effort in terms of developing man-portable systems to counter these drones. The likes of Martlet are all well and good but presumably the missile itself is expensive in comparison to a COTS drone, also only a one-shot system i.e. unable to take on more than threat at a time. I'm thinking along the lines of a motorised mount for a LMG with optical/IR tracking, something simple and quick to deploy.
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Old 4th May 2022, 09:06
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Reference the heavy lift drones mentioned by Boris in his speech to the Ukrainian Parliament. From The Times.



68Kg payload and 70Km range.

https://www.malloyaeronautics.com/t150/
"70 km range"? =35 km one-way? Carry a spare battery or two on the first trip?
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Old 4th May 2022, 09:12
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Its interesting as AFAIK there appears to be little effort in terms of developing man-portable systems to counter these drones. The likes of Martlet are all well and good but presumably the missile itself is expensive in comparison to a COTS drone, also only a one-shot system i.e. unable to take on more than threat at a time. I'm thinking along the lines of a motorised mount for a LMG with optical/IR tracking, something simple and quick to deploy.
Seems like a difficult problem to solve; I'm guessing LMG (or any other CIWS) will have pretty limited range, so you need one deployed near every target. To defend an area you need some sort of guided missile, which quickly gets complex and expensive (I'm guessing more expensive than the drones you're targetting). The only other countermeasures I can think of are electronic (deny control of the drone, or its ability to navigate) or some sort of directed energy (shoot them down with lasers).
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