Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 9th Mar 2022, 09:13
  #2821 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Here and there.
Posts: 1,141
Received 55 Likes on 28 Posts
Originally Posted by mahogany bob
NO FLY ZONE

I have just been listening to Sir Chris Deverell backing a No Fly Zone in Ukraine.

Perhaps he ,or someone, could address the following :

How would a NFZ stop the missile/artillery barrages destroying Ukraine cities ?
It wouldn't stop it at all and any engagement from "air policing" with ground forces = WW3

Originally Posted by mahogany bob
NO FLY ZONE

How would a NFZ stop Russian bombers blitzing Ukraine cities - the distances are simply too short for effective intercepts ?
Again, PUTIN wouldn't care; any engagement by "air policing" = WW3

Originally Posted by mahogany bob
NO FLY ZONE

To achieve Air Supremacy -required to establish a NFZ - we would have to stop Russian bombers / fighters taking off from nearby airfields in Russia . This would necessitate destroying airfields and radar control sites in mother Russia !
Seee above. = WW3


Originally Posted by mahogany bob
NO FLY ZONE

Is this really a good idea ?
In summary, a NO FLY ZONE is not a good idea. The risks of escalation is almost a certainty.

Best thing is to ensure every person capable on the ground has efective anti-air assets, and open the skies so that if it flies it is a target. No risk of blue on blue. Purely a defensive stance and reason to escalate reduced.
SATCOS WHIPPING BOY is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 09:31
  #2822 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,568
Received 8 Likes on 7 Posts
Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
Best thing is to ensure every person capable on the ground has efective anti-air assets, and open the skies so that if it flies it is a target. No risk of blue on blue. Purely a defensive stance and reason to escalate reduced.
Maybe this is Ukraine's ultimate aim i.e. for NATO to say "Well we can't provide a no-fly zone but here, have some more Stingers and we'll look what else is in the locker"

One advantage of doing this is that there is no fanfare i.e. can be supplied covertly, and their use is fairly deniable assuming dedicated radar systems aren't involved. I doubt even an the most experienced combat pilot will know what system they were engaged by.
dead_pan is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 09:44
  #2823 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: uk
Posts: 140
Received 60 Likes on 25 Posts
Stingers agreed.

Do some ex army officers still have ‘The Charge of The Light Brigade ‘ mentality?
mahogany bob is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 10:06
  #2824 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,112
Received 2,433 Likes on 1,014 Posts
An AN124 carrying Covid test kits has been seized in Toronto. It was carrying the kits ordered by Canada to Canada and when it landed they seized the plane LOL


https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/v...ronto-pearson/


An Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft carrying Covid-19 test kits ordered by the Government of Canada has been grounded at Toronto’s Pearson Airport as part of the international sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

Like most of the European countries, Canada and the United States have issued executive orders closing their airspace to planes owned or operated by Russian companies.

The orders affect several Antonov An-124 aircraft owned and operated by the Russian cargo giant Volga-Dnepr Group, based in Ulyanovsk, Russia.

The Volga-Dnepr Antonov that landed in Toronto on Saturday 27 February at 07:00 was carrying rapid antigen tests ordered from China by the Canadian government. The aircraft, registered RA-82078, departed from an undisclosed airport in China on flight VI5854, stopping at Khabarovsk in Russia’s far east and in Anchorage before arriving in Toronto.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 10:30
  #2825 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,872
Received 116 Likes on 67 Posts
Zelenskiyy seems to think that artillery shells and missiles are the flying objects that need stopping.

Although Davef68 mentions the airport destroyed at Vinnitsia (sp?) it was only mainly the buildings apparently as Russia wants to save as many runways as possible for later use by their waiting VVS Air Force.

jolihokistix is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 10:41
  #2826 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Age: 79
Posts: 531
Received 21 Likes on 12 Posts
I find Mahogany Bob's argument persuasive. Good to know you're alive and kicking, Bob!
Barksdale Boy is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 11:36
  #2827 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Scotland
Age: 43
Posts: 120
Received 14 Likes on 6 Posts
Originally Posted by jolihokistix

Although Davef68 mentions the airport destroyed at Vinnitsia (sp?) it was only mainly the buildings apparently as Russia wants to save as many runways as possible for later use by their waiting VVS Air Force.
I suspect that the lack of runway targeting has more to do with the limited effectiveness of such a strike than a desire to preserve the surface. The attack reportedly used only Kalibir cruise missiles which do not carry penetrating warheads. A 500kg HE warhead is unlikely to keep the runway out of action for more than a few hours if there is a will to repair it. Other airfield infrastructure will be more expensive and time consuming to replace.
Recc is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 11:41
  #2828 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,568
Received 8 Likes on 7 Posts
I was musing whether Ukraine's geography, specifically its forest cover, could in part explain the progress or otherwise of Russian forces (I haven't heard any talk head mention this yet) and found this map. It shows the south and east of the country to be mainly steppe i.e. flat, open country, nowhere to hide etc, whereas the north and west are wooded to varying degrees, better cover for troops and equipment if you aren't restricted to roads for whatever reason.


Talking of forest cover, back in 2017 I visited Bialowieza in Poland and went out into the forest one evening on my own in the hope of spotting some of the rarer local wildlife. Have to say, I'm not easily scared out on my lonesome at night having spent many out fishing for sea trout, hiking etc, but for whatever reason I was genuinely unnerved at one point when I spooked something, probably a deer, which promptly came crashing towards me through the undergrowth. I guess the tales of partisans and locals being led away into the forest for reprisals during WWII, recounted by our guide earlier in the day, may have played on my mind. Or maybe there's something in eastern European forest animism.... Either way, its not a ground I'd chose to fight over.
dead_pan is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 11:44
  #2829 (permalink)  
sir
Basia Arma
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: button moon
Posts: 57
Received 2 Likes on 1 Post

Getting these ads on here now - hmmm
sir is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 11:47
  #2830 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,642
Received 187 Likes on 82 Posts
Russia has been making moves on nuclear power plants by occupying (Chernobyl), shelling (Zaporizhzhia and test reactor at Kharkiv) and advancing toward other NPP's.
There is worrying thought that the Russians are creating a pretext for a nuclear disaster, ultimate area denial by exploding a NPP and blaming the Ukrainians for it. This was unthinkable two weeks ago, now it is in the realm of possibility.
i hope I am wrong.
Beamr is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 11:53
  #2831 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,112
Received 2,433 Likes on 1,014 Posts
My thoughts would be to turn the juice off, probably why they are working to connect the EU to Ukraine

https://nypressnews.com/news/world/e...energy-sector/
NutLoose is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 11:59
  #2832 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Rhone-Alpes
Posts: 1,143
Received 220 Likes on 126 Posts
Originally Posted by sir

Getting these ads on here now - hmmm
Given that Russian aircraft are being brought down frequently with manpads and very little damage is reported as a result of bombing, but rather artillery and rockets, I think this must be ignored. I have now moved completely to the view that Selensky is cynically trying his best to drag any NATO country into this war, so that it broadens the conflict and relieves pressure on Ukraine.

This must not happen. His words and pictures of suffering children must be ignored ( in this case ). There is a very real risk of this moving to some kind of nuclear level if NATO becomes involved, and for that Selensky becomes a total **** in my eyes in trying to engineer this. The help he is getting with ATGW and manpads is the most effective at the moment and, by all accounts, very large numbers are getting through;
Tartiflette Fan is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 12:11
  #2833 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,112
Received 2,433 Likes on 1,014 Posts
Hahahaaaa, only could happen in Ireland

NutLoose is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 12:38
  #2834 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Terra Firma
Posts: 10
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Beamr
Russia has been making moves on nuclear power plants by occupying (Chernobyl), shelling (Zaporizhzhia and test reactor at Kharkiv) and advancing toward other NPP's.
There is worrying thought that the Russians are creating a pretext for a nuclear disaster, ultimate area denial by exploding a NPP and blaming the Ukrainians for it. This was unthinkable two weeks ago, now it is in the realm of possibility.
i hope I am wrong.
Perhaps the Russians propose using the grounds around nuclear reactors to site artillery pieces and munitions stores? Less likely to attract incoming fire with its high risk of unintended "damage".?

Rev
TheReverend is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 12:41
  #2835 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: UK
Posts: 124
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Given that Russian aircraft are being brought down frequently with manpads and very little damage is reported as a result of bombing, but rather artillery and rockets, I think this must be ignored. I have now moved completely to the view that Selensky is cynically trying his best to drag any NATO country into this war, so that it broadens the conflict and relieves pressure on Ukraine.
I doubt that he is being cynical in the way that you mean, more rather that he is using it as a tool to pressure the West in other directions. I am sure he knows a No Fly Zone is unrealistic goal, but perhaps constantly stating the need can maybe guilt trip NATO\EU into keeping the pressure on Russia in more sanctions and more aid.And possibly making a paranoid Russia think about what might happen if they use their air power more than the current limited amount ( as you say), so he keeps the debate hot.
Usertim is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 12:50
  #2836 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,112
Received 2,433 Likes on 1,014 Posts
AWOL Guardsman bought ticket to Poland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60675671

Also

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60669763

Wanted: multilingual former soldiers willing to covertly head into Ukraine for the handsome sum of up to $2,000 (£1,523) per day - plus bonus - to help rescue families from an increasingly grim conflict.

It sounds ripped from the script of an action movie, but the job advert is real - taken from an employment website, Silent Professionals, for those working in the private military and security industry.

And, insiders say, demand is growing. Amid a gut-wrenching war in Ukraine, US and European private contractors say they are increasingly eying opportunities, ranging from 'extraction' missions to helping with logistics.

There is "a frenzy in the market" for private contractors in Ukraine today, said Robert Young Pelton, a Canadian American author and expert on private military companies (PMCs).

But the demand for paid security workers - many of them former soldiers with ability to fight and kill - in the midst of a war leaves plenty of room for mistakes, and the potential for bedlam.

Last edited by NutLoose; 9th Mar 2022 at 13:03.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 12:53
  #2837 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,568
Received 8 Likes on 7 Posts
This made me laugh:
dead_pan is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 12:54
  #2838 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Lincs
Posts: 2,307
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts


TEEEJ is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 12:56
  #2839 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Rhone-Alpes
Posts: 1,143
Received 220 Likes on 126 Posts
Originally Posted by Usertim
I am sure he knows a No Fly Zone is unrealistic goal, .
I certainly hope so, but I have been disturbed by both Blinken's comments about supplying F16's if Poland chose to send its Migs to Ukraine ( which I see as tacit approval ) and then by Poland's offer to lend its Migs to the USA As far as the second point is concerned, I am not sure if this wasn't a way of telling Blinken to shut his big mouth, which seems to have worked as the USA has backtracked quickly; I don't understand however, why comments such as Blinken's are uttered at all. Imo opinion he should have said that the current position is that NATO is not going to get involved and made any other comments in secret discussions. It is necessary to keep making public statements about no NATO involvement every time Selensky makes an appeal.
Tartiflette Fan is offline  
Old 9th Mar 2022, 13:04
  #2840 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Herefordshire
Posts: 737
Received 446 Likes on 156 Posts
On March 9, 2022, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that the United Kingdom was looking into delivering Starstreak missiles to Ukraine, to prevent Russian air supremacy amid the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Video Mixdown is online now  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.