Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

https://www.hotnews.ro/stiri-razboi_...at-rachete.htm
With photos, video.
Russia (?) blows up the Zatoka road/rail bridge over the Dniester estuary between Odesa and Romania. A very dangerous move, on the face of it, just asking for trouble.

Not unexpected, and either a fit of pique or it suggests an attempt to set up for an attack on Odessa. Now, how do you get around an impenetrable 12' fence? (that was the ultimate solution to the "Mexican" problem... ) Like fighting Daleks, going upstairs is an option... “This is an [insert to taste] , surrounded by water. Big water. Ocean water,” to repeat the immortal words of 45.

The USSR had a similar issue back in '41-'42 at a little town called Stalingrad. I seem to recall they found a way to work around the problem. Interestingly, Stalingrad, now Volgagrad has some beautiful lines of communication passing over the Volga. They are nice, pretty bridges. Bridges are great, they don't move much, in fact they kind of move at the same pace as the turf underneath. Just upstream is another beautiful bridge at Saratov. Now, at 600kms, the URA missiles are just a wee bit shy of range, but someone around here has a simple field mod for cruise missiles, apparently adds about... enough to "reach out and touch someone..." out around those bridges. Seems only fair.

On Kerch, the rationale eludes me as to why a defender (who happens to actually legally own the territory to the west of the midpoint of the passage) would not want to block the waterway. Particularly after the Ukraine-Romania link being struck. Any ships in the Sea of Azov are able to support an assault on Odessa, and I for one don't think that the Russians have a right to gate crash parties in the area.

Huff'n Puff's comments on WW-III while annoying to all indicate the bankruptcy of ideas and options that the Red team (Red nose?) find themselves in following the Wile Coyote version of the Von Schlieffen plan that was put out by the Kleptokriminocrats in Fort Fumble (the Kremlin with F-troop laagered)... If they don't like people objecting to their actions, then don't do it. 5-year-olds get to learn that, but apparently, that bit of developmental experiential learning was skipped at the KGB training courses and at F-Troop.

The actions on supplies of oil/gas to the EU is akin to holding a gun to your head and threatening to pull the trigger. Russia's behavior at present is damaging to Russia's long-term interests. Darn near 100% of their exports are based on energy, arms, and grain (and a bit of vodka). For planning purposes, those tend to be inelastic demands, and so having a reliable supplier is more important than the % of a cost in getting a reliable supplier. So, lets count the ways...

1. Russia is a reliable supplier of energy? Nup
2. Russia is a reliable supplier of arms? Nah
3. Russia is a supplier of good-quality arms? Only if you are interested in turret toss team entries... or submersible cruisers, or SU-34 carousel rides, hmm
4. Russia is a reliable supplier of grain? they are happy to be belligerent to anyone who F-Troop think is a threat to their picture-perfect kleptocracy... That is about every country on the planet that doesn't have the name Russia in their nametag. Nyet!
5. Russia is a good investment opportunity? Not on recent history.
6. Russia is an honest broker, says what it means, means what it says, speaks truth and only truth? (See Pinocchio)
7. Does Russia respect UN conventions?
8. Does Russia respect the Geneva Conventions?
9. etc.

A nuclear power that threatens nuclear war because their feelings are hurt and they are embarrassed, is the best advert for giving out nuclear weapons to little countries to even up the action. Not a desirable state of affairs, but it is the situation that the failure to take conventional response due to concerns of the thugs response ends up with the rest of the world being metaphicially "Battered Wife Syndrome" survivors. None of this is enjoyable and it is catastrophic for the neighbors of such thugs as F-Troop, but equally, there is no conceivable outcome that Russia is not catastrophically damaged by their continued prosecution of a war of lunacy. In contrast, a ceasefire and return to internationally accepted borders restores the future for Russia, and removes the global risk that F-Troop represents. Time for Russia to be removed from the UNSC or to have their veto curtailed. How that has not happened to this date is a damned disgrace. The UN Charter is pretty darn clear on the obligations and expectations of signatories, and yet various countries shirk their responsibilities, and that adds risk to everyone else.

[ORAC]

Worth reading in full, full of titbits - and why sanctions will prevent them rearming, lots of US, and British, essential components.

https://static.rusi.org/special-repo...tion-z-web.pdf

Operation Z - The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion

"anti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down, but what killed them was our artillery”

“When it comes to prestige weapons systems like the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile, there is a limit to the proportion of the stockpile Russia can expend against Ukraine without undermining its defence plans against NATO, China and others. Without an assured supply chain to manufacture more, the Russians are having to retain a large proportion of the stockpile, which would restrict their ability to strike Ukraine in the coming months. But here the Russian military industries face a problem, for Russia’s latest weapons are heavily dependent upon critical specialist components manufactured abroad.“….

“An examination by the technical labs of the Ukrainian intelligence community of the Aqueduct family of Russian military radios (R-168-5UN-2, R-168-5UN-1 and R-168-5UT-2), which form the backbone of the Russian military’s tactical communications, for instance, reveals critical electronic components manufactured in the US, Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea and Japan.56 The pattern is universal. Almost all of Russia’s modern military hardware is dependent upon complex electronics imported from the US, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, Israel, China and further afield.“…

"The authors physically inspected one of these computers recovered from a crashed 9M727 during fieldwork in April...Of the seven socket attachment points allowing data to be moved through the heat shield...six are all products of US companies."….

"Many components are dual-use...Russia has established mechanisms for laundering these through third countries. Restricting access...likely means preventing export to countries such as India of goods that are in some instances used for civilian purposes." …

“Limiting Russia’s ability to protract fighting beyond the summer could be effectively enabled by reducing its access to modern armaments. To achieve this, Western countries must conduct a thorough assessment of where their companies are knowingly or inadvertently supplying Russia and cut off these channels.

The severing of these channels will not alter the volume of munitions physically stockpiled by Russia for operations in the summer. But the expectations of future manufacture will both shape how much of the stockpile can be expended in Ukraine and the Kremlin’s confidence in the long-term security implications of continuing the war”.…..

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by fdr

will be put down to faulty wiring..

Leveraging from a debate in the other ukraine topic in JB, could we then summarize that the Russian truth is that
- the wirings in their factories and laboratories are bad
- the windows in their buildings throw people out, especially if installed on third floor or higher
- their military vessels catch fire on their own and sink on calm seas
- special military operation going according to plans means that 10% of the force is dead, other 10% is wounded and 20% of MBT's have sent their turrets to a low earth orbit.

Makes one wonder, what is a bad situation according to the Russian truth?

[ORAC]

More bad wiring presumably…..

Explosions reported at ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Luhansk region.

Russian independent news outlet Meduza reported that local residents reported multiple explosions lasting several hours at the depot in the town of Irmino, under Russian occupation since 2014.

[Beamr]

here's some alleged footage of the wires gone bad

Twitter

and location on a map as well

Twitter

[ORAC]

Brimstone 1, 2 or 3, and integrated onto which land and/or air platform(s)?

The UK will provide Ukraine with state-of-the-art Brimstone ground attack missiles. These can be fired from both the ground as well as from the air. These will be transferred to Ukraine by May 10th (James Hippie, Deputy Defence Minister).

[Asturias56]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Brimstone 1, 2 or 3, and integrated onto which land and/or air platform(s)?

Don't expect too much - it's Press release - from someone who has just topped the Conservative Home poll to be the next leader of the Tory Party

details aren't on his mind

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

So if they get a chance, they could close the bridge without effecting shipping, thanks.

The bridge part of the crossing, the thing with all the girders and arches and such, crosses the canal, look on GoogleEarth.

[Davef68]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Brimstone 1, 2 or 3, and integrated onto which land and/or air platform(s)?

If rumour is to be believed, it's Maritime Brimstone/Sea Spear,

https://www.mbda-systems.com/product...ime-brimstone/

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Ninthace

The bridge part of the crossing, the thing with all the girders and arches and such, crosses the canal, look on GoogleEarth.

... and again, why would you NOT want to drop the span into the navigable waterway?

analogy.
You are at home, and get home invaded, and you call the feds, and they put you on hold. You continue to fight off the invader, and note that they are trading with other people who are disinterested in your plight, and would prefer to be toasty warm in winter while you fight for your life... you further note that there is a door that the invader is using to invade your house, and just so happens to be dual-use, the other people who are benefitting from your plight use that to get a cheap deal from the invader, to keep toasty warm while you freeze your butt off in the cold, sans their help....

Now add the odd occasional gratuitous execution or 10,000+ (that's what this is going to show in the end, the biggest genocide since Rwanda).

I ask again, why would you give a rats about the inconvenience to the rest of the gawkers who are still trading with your invader?

This bridge was an act of aggression, by an illegal occupier at that time. And for the record, I am not Ukrainian, I am just irritated by bullies, liars and cheats, which is Emperor Putin and his F-Troop. I do have sympathy for the Russian individuals, but they need to be getting rid of their kleptocratic government. Not standing up like Navalny or Politskaya puts them in the same camp. I do believe Ed Burke was on to something, even if he didn't actually say - “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

In the meantime, very happy if Lloyds occasionally reads this forum and the newspapers and acts accordingly in delightfully self-interest to rack up insurance rates for those that attempt to profit from trade with a despotic empire.

On another side, seems a shame that Romania, a NATO country doesn't do a lend-lease deal for "control" of eastern Ukraine from their border to Kerch, and up to the east side of Donbas. A leaseback kinda agreement. That would put a kink in the plans of Dr Evil, and his blackmail of the world for. .....

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by fdr

On another side, seems a shame that Romania, a NATO country doesn't do a lend-lease deal for "control" of eastern Ukraine from their border to Kerch, and up to the east side of Donbas. A leaseback kinda agreement. That would put a kink in the plans of Dr Evil, and his blackmail of the world for. .....

I did have the same thought yesterday, in relation to the territory of Ukraine potentially affected by the bridge strike yesterday (it does have a name but I can't find it), specifically whether Ukraine could temporarily cede it to Romania in order to protect Moldova's territorial integrity and its access to the Black Sea (to be returned when the fun and games are over)?

[dead_pan]

Nice collectible...

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Without an assured supply chain to manufacture more, the Russians are having to retain a large proportion of the stockpile, which would restrict their ability to strike Ukraine in the coming months. But here the Russian military industries face a problem, for Russia’s latest weapons are heavily dependent upon critical specialist components manufactured abroad.“….

Almost all of Russia’s modern military hardware is dependent upon complex electronics imported from the US, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, Israel, China and further afield.“…

"Many components are dual-use...Russia has established mechanisms for laundering these through third countries. Restricting access...likely means preventing export to countries such as India of goods that are in some instances used for civilian purposes." …
.

This shows how much, their Tigr IMV relies on a Bosch unit for the engine, now although its built in China, one wonders if they will be able to source items direct from China or is the software added post delivery tailored to a specific vehicle.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1518074336271376385


..

[Recc]

Originally Posted by fdr

On another side, seems a shame that Romania, a NATO country doesn't do a lend-lease deal for "control" of eastern Ukraine from their border to Kerch, and up to the east side of Donbas. A leaseback kinda agreement. That would put a kink in the plans of Dr Evil, and his blackmail of the world for.

Would be a bit much to ask Romania to take on Russia without article 5 guarantees.

[tartare]

I see Liz Truss now calling for `warplanes' to be supplied along with other heavy weaponry.
So realistically - what can that mean - the Polish MiG deal gets put back on the table?
Supplying Ukraine with Gen 4 NATO fighters presumably not being practical due to training issues - despite their assertions they could learn to fly and fight an F-16 in a few weeks?

[ORAC]

Plenty of trained pilots and ground crew who’d be prepared to accept dual nationality and join the UKrAF, and plenty of past precedents such as the Flying Tigers, Poles in the RAF etc…

[Recc]

Originally Posted by tartare

Supplying Ukraine with Gen 4 NATO fighters presumably not being practical due to training issues - despite their assertions they could learn to fly and fight an F-16 in a few weeks?

Not an original thought of mine, but I heard it argued that there had to be a distinction between peacetime training requirements and those during a war. In peacetime, training is comprehensive and exhaustive because that gives you the maximum capability for a given investment in personnel and equipment. In wartime, you cannot always afford to be maximally efficient in your use of people and equipment because there are more pressing constraints. Ukraine's military has shown itself to be remarkably effective and proficient compared to pre-war expectations; I think it would be a mistake to dismiss them out of hand when they say that they would be able to use a particular piece of equipment. Western nations have now (correctly IMO) stated that it is their intention to support Ukraine to a military victory. I think that we have to accept that there will be a cost to this and inefficiencies in the use of supplied equipment will be part of this.

Another point is that there is no way of knowing how the war will progress. At some point in a prolonged conflict, Ukraine will have to transition to unfamiliar equipment. Training for the equipment where lead-in times are longest (such as combat aircraft) should happen soonest. It may well be happening already for all that we know.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by tartare

I see Liz Truss now calling for `warplanes' to be supplied along with other heavy weaponry.
So realistically - what can that mean - the Polish MiG deal gets put back on the table?
Supplying Ukraine with Gen 4 NATO fighters presumably not being practical due to training issues - despite their assertions they could learn to fly and fight an F-16 in a few weeks?

What F-16's every time it gets raised I ask the same question. What F-16 are sitting around available to be transferred to ukraine. Second hand F-16's sell like hotcakes once an announcement is made of retirement someone else announces they are buying. Even the US is running short of a good quality F-16 to use as target drones

I think the EF tranche ones from UK, suppliement by the austrian ones would be a best option. They would relatively easy to supply, train and maintain in europe. Second option would be a F-18. The kuwati F-18 have done relatively little work, the could be supplimented by the ex RAAF 40ish plus the finish ones if needed and parts from the boneyard

[dead_pan]

How long does it normally take for an experienced mil pilot to be type-rated on a new aircraft along with its weapons systems? Must only be a matter of weeks, surely?

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by rattman

What F-16's every time it gets raised I ask the same question. What F-16 are sitting around available to be transferred to ukraine. Second hand F-16's sell like hotcakes once an announcement is made of retirement someone else announces they are buying. Even the US is running short of a good quality F-16 to use as target drones

I think the EF tranche ones from UK, suppliement by the austrian ones would be a best option. They would relatively easy to supply, train and maintain in europe. Second option would be a F-18. The kuwati F-18 have done relatively little work, the could be supplimented by the ex RAAF 40ish plus the finish ones if needed and parts from the boneyard

Just give them anything which is just to go out of service and unlikely to be re-sold or sold for buttons - Hawk T1s, German Tornadoes, the whole shaboozle. May as well get some use out of them.