Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Bucharest
Posts: 93
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
No problem viewing it here jolihokistix.
Check out the link below of the same footage. There are other, longer clips doing the rounds showing two parachutes, and another later video of a helo around the crash site possibly conducting SAR..
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical
Check out the link below of the same footage. There are other, longer clips doing the rounds showing two parachutes, and another later video of a helo around the crash site possibly conducting SAR..
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical
Apparently there is a really huge WWII ammunition dump in Transnistria. Cobasna. Although there are rumours that some of it has been disappearing into the black market, there are doubts as to its reliability after all these years.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coba...munition_depot
Last edited by jolihokistix; 26th Apr 2022 at 04:00.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,054
Received 2,927 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
From Ben Wallace’s statement it appears the Challengers to Poland are loaners until the Abrams are delivered, it makes sense as you wouldn’t want multiple MBT’s in your fleet, I have copied his statement over as to the MOD’s assessment on how the war is progressing from EricFerret’s link on JB.
Thank you, Mr Speaker. It has now been 61 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, and it has been 74 days since my Russian counterpart assured me that the Russian army would not be invading.
As the invasion approaches its ninth week, I want to update the House on the current situation and what steps we are taking to further our support to the Ukrainian people.
It is our assessment that approximately 15,000 Russian personnel have been killed during their offensive. Alongside the death toll are the equipment losses. In total, a number of sources suggest that to date over 2,000 armoured vehicles have been destroyed or captured. This includes at least 530 tanks, 530 Armoured Personnel Carriers and 560 Infantry Fighting Vehicles. Russia has also lost over 60 helicopters and fighter jets.
The offensive that was supposed to take a maximum of a week has now taken weeks.
Last week Russia admitted that the Slava-class cruiser Moskva has sunk – the second key naval asset that they have lost since invading – significantly weakening their ability to bring their maritime assets to bear from the Black Sea.
As I said, Mr Speaker, in my last statement, Russia has so far failed in nearly every one of its objectives. In recognition of this failure, the Russian high command has regrouped, reinforced, and changed focus to securing the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. A failure of the Russian Ministry of Defence command and control at all levels has meant they have now appointed one overall commander - General Dvornikov. At the start of this conflict Russia had committed over 120 battalion tactical groups, approximately 65% of its entire ground combat strength. As of now we assess that over 25% of these have been rendered not combat effective.
Ukraine, Mr Speaker, is an inspiration to us all. Their brave people have never stopped fighting for their land. They have endured indiscriminate bombardment, war crimes and overwhelming military aggression. But they have stood firm, galvanised the international community and beaten back the army of Russia in the North and the North-East.
We anticipate that this next phase of the invasion will be an attempt by Russia to occupy further the Donbas and connect, via Mariupol, the Crimea. And so it is urgent that we in the international community ensure Ukraine gets the aid and weapons it so much needs.
As Defence Secretary I have ensured that, at each step of the way, the UK’s support is tailored to the anticipated actions of Russia. To date we have provided more than 5,000 anti-tank missiles, 5 Air Defence systems with more than 100 missiles, 1,360 anti-structure munitions, and 4.5 tonnes of plastic explosives. And in response to indiscriminate bombing from the air, and escalations by President Putin’s forces, on 9 March I announced that the UK would supply Starstreak high velocity and low velocity anti-air missiles. I am able to now report to the House that these have been in-theatre for over 3 weeks and they have been deployed and used by Ukrainian forces to defend themselves and their territory.
Over recess my ministerial team, Mr Speaker, hosted a Ukrainian government delegation at Salisbury Plain Training Area to explore further equipment options. This was quickly followed by the Prime Minister announcing a further £100 million worth of high-grade military equipment, 120 armoured vehicles, sourcing anti-ship missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes.
But as we can see from Ukrainian requests, more needs to be done. So for that reason I can now announce to the House that we shall be gifting a small number of armoured vehicles fitted with launchers for those anti-air missiles. These Stormer vehicles will give Ukraine forces enhanced short range anti-air capabilities, both day and night.
Since my last statement more countries have answered the call and more have stepped up to support. The Czech Republic has supplied T72 tanks and BMP Fighting Vehicles, and Poland has also pledged T72 tanks.
Mr Speaker, the quickest route to helping Ukraine is with similar equipment and ammunition to what they already use. The UK government obviously does not hold Russian equipment but, in order to help where we do not have such stock, we have enabled others to donate. Alongside Canada and Poland, the Royal Air Force has been busy moving equipment from donor countries to Ukraine. At the same time, if no donor can be found, we are purchasing equipment from the open market.
On 31 March I held my second international donor conference, involving an increase of countries to 35 countries, including representation from the EU and NATO. So far these efforts have yielded some 2.5 million items of equipment, worth over £1.5 billion.
These next three weeks are key. Ukraine needs more long-range artillery and ammunition and both Russian and NATO calibre types to accompany them. They also seek anti-ship missiles to counter Russian ships that are able to bombard Ukrainian cities. Mr Speaker, it is therefore important to say that, if possible, the UK will seek to enable or supply such weapons. I shall keep the House up to date, and also members of each front bench across the House, as we proceed. The MOD is working day and night to support, alongside the US, Canada, and the EU, continued logistical supplies.
But not all the aid is lethal. We have also sent significant quantities of non-lethal equipment to Ukraine. To date we have sent over 90,000 ration packs, over 10 pallets of medical equipment, more than 3,000 pieces of body armour, nearly 77,000 helmets, 3,000 pairs of boots and much more including communications equipment and ear defence.
On top of our military aid to Ukraine, we contribute to strengthening NATO’s collective security, for both the immediate challenge and the long term. We have temporarily doubled the number of Defence personnel in Estonia, sent military personnel to support Lithuanian intelligence resilience and reconnaissance efforts, deployed hundreds of Royal Marines to Poland, and sent offshore patrol vessels and Navy destroyers to the Eastern Mediterranean. We have also increased our presence in the skies over south-eastern Europe with four additional Typhoons based in Romania. That means we now have a full squadron of RAF fighter jets in southern Europe, ready to support NATO tasking.
As the Prime Minister announced on Friday, we are also offering a deployment of British Challenger 2 Tanks to Poland to bridge the gap between Poland donating tanks to Ukraine, and their replacements arriving from a third country.
Looking further ahead, NATO is reassessing its posture and the UK is leading conversations at NATO about how best the Alliance can deter and defend against threats. My NATO colleagues and I tasked the Alliance to report to leaders at the summit in June with proposals for concrete, long-term and sustainable changes.
Mr Speaker, some of us in this House knew that, behind the mask, the Kremlin was not the international statesman it pretended to be. With this invasion of Ukraine, all of Europe can now see the true face of President Putin and his inner circle. His intention is only to destroy, to crush, to rub out the free peoples of Ukraine. He does not want to preserve. He must not be allowed to prevail. Ukrainians are fighting for their very lives and they are fighting for our freedoms.
The President of Ukraine himself said as much: if Russia stops fighting, there will be peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no more Ukraine.
Thank you.
As the invasion approaches its ninth week, I want to update the House on the current situation and what steps we are taking to further our support to the Ukrainian people.
It is our assessment that approximately 15,000 Russian personnel have been killed during their offensive. Alongside the death toll are the equipment losses. In total, a number of sources suggest that to date over 2,000 armoured vehicles have been destroyed or captured. This includes at least 530 tanks, 530 Armoured Personnel Carriers and 560 Infantry Fighting Vehicles. Russia has also lost over 60 helicopters and fighter jets.
The offensive that was supposed to take a maximum of a week has now taken weeks.
Last week Russia admitted that the Slava-class cruiser Moskva has sunk – the second key naval asset that they have lost since invading – significantly weakening their ability to bring their maritime assets to bear from the Black Sea.
As I said, Mr Speaker, in my last statement, Russia has so far failed in nearly every one of its objectives. In recognition of this failure, the Russian high command has regrouped, reinforced, and changed focus to securing the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. A failure of the Russian Ministry of Defence command and control at all levels has meant they have now appointed one overall commander - General Dvornikov. At the start of this conflict Russia had committed over 120 battalion tactical groups, approximately 65% of its entire ground combat strength. As of now we assess that over 25% of these have been rendered not combat effective.
Ukraine, Mr Speaker, is an inspiration to us all. Their brave people have never stopped fighting for their land. They have endured indiscriminate bombardment, war crimes and overwhelming military aggression. But they have stood firm, galvanised the international community and beaten back the army of Russia in the North and the North-East.
We anticipate that this next phase of the invasion will be an attempt by Russia to occupy further the Donbas and connect, via Mariupol, the Crimea. And so it is urgent that we in the international community ensure Ukraine gets the aid and weapons it so much needs.
As Defence Secretary I have ensured that, at each step of the way, the UK’s support is tailored to the anticipated actions of Russia. To date we have provided more than 5,000 anti-tank missiles, 5 Air Defence systems with more than 100 missiles, 1,360 anti-structure munitions, and 4.5 tonnes of plastic explosives. And in response to indiscriminate bombing from the air, and escalations by President Putin’s forces, on 9 March I announced that the UK would supply Starstreak high velocity and low velocity anti-air missiles. I am able to now report to the House that these have been in-theatre for over 3 weeks and they have been deployed and used by Ukrainian forces to defend themselves and their territory.
Over recess my ministerial team, Mr Speaker, hosted a Ukrainian government delegation at Salisbury Plain Training Area to explore further equipment options. This was quickly followed by the Prime Minister announcing a further £100 million worth of high-grade military equipment, 120 armoured vehicles, sourcing anti-ship missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes.
But as we can see from Ukrainian requests, more needs to be done. So for that reason I can now announce to the House that we shall be gifting a small number of armoured vehicles fitted with launchers for those anti-air missiles. These Stormer vehicles will give Ukraine forces enhanced short range anti-air capabilities, both day and night.
Since my last statement more countries have answered the call and more have stepped up to support. The Czech Republic has supplied T72 tanks and BMP Fighting Vehicles, and Poland has also pledged T72 tanks.
Mr Speaker, the quickest route to helping Ukraine is with similar equipment and ammunition to what they already use. The UK government obviously does not hold Russian equipment but, in order to help where we do not have such stock, we have enabled others to donate. Alongside Canada and Poland, the Royal Air Force has been busy moving equipment from donor countries to Ukraine. At the same time, if no donor can be found, we are purchasing equipment from the open market.
On 31 March I held my second international donor conference, involving an increase of countries to 35 countries, including representation from the EU and NATO. So far these efforts have yielded some 2.5 million items of equipment, worth over £1.5 billion.
These next three weeks are key. Ukraine needs more long-range artillery and ammunition and both Russian and NATO calibre types to accompany them. They also seek anti-ship missiles to counter Russian ships that are able to bombard Ukrainian cities. Mr Speaker, it is therefore important to say that, if possible, the UK will seek to enable or supply such weapons. I shall keep the House up to date, and also members of each front bench across the House, as we proceed. The MOD is working day and night to support, alongside the US, Canada, and the EU, continued logistical supplies.
But not all the aid is lethal. We have also sent significant quantities of non-lethal equipment to Ukraine. To date we have sent over 90,000 ration packs, over 10 pallets of medical equipment, more than 3,000 pieces of body armour, nearly 77,000 helmets, 3,000 pairs of boots and much more including communications equipment and ear defence.
On top of our military aid to Ukraine, we contribute to strengthening NATO’s collective security, for both the immediate challenge and the long term. We have temporarily doubled the number of Defence personnel in Estonia, sent military personnel to support Lithuanian intelligence resilience and reconnaissance efforts, deployed hundreds of Royal Marines to Poland, and sent offshore patrol vessels and Navy destroyers to the Eastern Mediterranean. We have also increased our presence in the skies over south-eastern Europe with four additional Typhoons based in Romania. That means we now have a full squadron of RAF fighter jets in southern Europe, ready to support NATO tasking.
As the Prime Minister announced on Friday, we are also offering a deployment of British Challenger 2 Tanks to Poland to bridge the gap between Poland donating tanks to Ukraine, and their replacements arriving from a third country.
Looking further ahead, NATO is reassessing its posture and the UK is leading conversations at NATO about how best the Alliance can deter and defend against threats. My NATO colleagues and I tasked the Alliance to report to leaders at the summit in June with proposals for concrete, long-term and sustainable changes.
Mr Speaker, some of us in this House knew that, behind the mask, the Kremlin was not the international statesman it pretended to be. With this invasion of Ukraine, all of Europe can now see the true face of President Putin and his inner circle. His intention is only to destroy, to crush, to rub out the free peoples of Ukraine. He does not want to preserve. He must not be allowed to prevail. Ukrainians are fighting for their very lives and they are fighting for our freedoms.
The President of Ukraine himself said as much: if Russia stops fighting, there will be peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no more Ukraine.
Thank you.
If you know the cruise missile configuration, that would be helpful.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,054
Received 2,927 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
CNN are showing them following ambulance crews in Kharkiv, the Russians do a double tap, shelling buildings to cause wounded, then repeating the shelling to hit the emergency services, 50 of their 200 ambulances are out of service due to shrapnel damage and they only have enough helmets for one in three of the crews, which they give to the drivers.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,054
Received 2,927 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
fdr,
That would leave the May Day parade wide open to attack, especially as all the heads of state will be present, though would that cause their nuclear response or conventional strikes on Kyiv ? They could of course simply announce they were going to strike to disrupt it all without actually doing anything. Far better targeting airbases especially those air launching cruise missiles.
That would leave the May Day parade wide open to attack, especially as all the heads of state will be present, though would that cause their nuclear response or conventional strikes on Kyiv ? They could of course simply announce they were going to strike to disrupt it all without actually doing anything. Far better targeting airbases especially those air launching cruise missiles.
CNN are showing them following ambulance crews in Kharkiv, the Russians do a double tap, shelling buildings to cause wounded, then repeating the shelling to hit the emergency services, 50 of their 200 ambulances are out of service due to shrapnel damage and they only have enough helmets for one in three of the crews, which they give to the drivers.
fdr,
That would leave the May Day parade wide open to attack, especially as all the heads of state will be present, though would that cause their nuclear response or conventional strikes on Kyiv ? They could of course simply announce they were going to strike to disrupt it all without actually doing anything. Far better targeting airbases especially those air launching cruise missiles.
That would leave the May Day parade wide open to attack, especially as all the heads of state will be present, though would that cause their nuclear response or conventional strikes on Kyiv ? They could of course simply announce they were going to strike to disrupt it all without actually doing anything. Far better targeting airbases especially those air launching cruise missiles.
Airbases, fair game, as is the establishment of a live-fire range on the western pylons of the Kerch bridge. POL is fair game, but environmentally unfriendly.
Does the Emperor have clothes?
Or, "Potemkin Village" redux
apologies to Hans Christian Andersen, (1837)
Spoiler alert: this goes on a little bit
Russia was reported to have 174 BTG in 2020. Each BTG has an establishment of around 630 to 800 troops. The BTG includes a series of component capabilities, be it mechanized (MBTs…), combined mechanized, (MBT + APC/IFVs etc). The APC/IFVs tend to have larger manpower sizes, each BTR/BMP/BMD etc takes a crew of 3 normally, and between 6 and 8 dismounted troops. The MBTs run around with 3 crew on most Soviet and later MBTs. SAM/AAA/SP Artillery and towed artillery all have a complement to suit their needs, turns out to be around 5-6 crew per unit on average. Quartermaster/supply has its own manpower needs, which run around 2-3 crew per vehicle, 2 being common. Intel/HQ etc add more tail to the beast. The teeth are in the BTG groups, supplied by the transport system.
Looking at the Order of Battle for the Southern and Western divisions of the Red force, the figures give roughly 104K for the south, 150K for the west, 200K for the central and 200K for the eastern division, with a further 50K coming from the navy.
The verified losses to date (well, to 23 APR 22) indicate that direct losses suffered by the Red force have been close to 40 BTGs. After reconstitution, the Red force are stated to have 65BTGs remaining. Most of that is from the consolidation of the starting force on 24 FEB 22. Red force suggests they are adding a further 22 BTG to the fray, taking the force to… 87 BTG. Out of 174 total BTG, that’s 50% of the total BTG formations as of 2020.
The losses that can be calculated using the probability of loss for a vehicle loss and the known vehicle losses match quite closely the figures from the URA, as in, they are very close to the stated fatalities, and are not apparently adding in injuries and captures to inflate those losses. The figure will have errors, but they are not self-deluding as far as ground force attrition goes.
With the remaining consolidated forces (56), and the addition of another 22 BTGs, that will take the in theatre BTGs up to 50% of the nominal establishment of the Red forces without general mobilization. The losses in the last 2 months are… 23% of the tabled forces in 2020. Nothing so far suggests that there was a surge in the establishment of BTGs between 2020 and Feb 2022.
So what does this mean? Simply, the Red force never had an army of 750,000 troops to send into combat. It is likely that the real combat force size is around 200,000-250,000, and ¼ of that has already been destroyed, and at least an 1/8 of the remainder are impacted by the shock of the last 8 weeks.
Is it possible that the 750,000 force size never existed, and it is 1/3rd of that? Absolutely. Russia has bred a kleptocracy from the top downwards, it is an expected part of the Soviet-era ethos, so much for equality and fraternity. (forget about liberty, that is one of those things that Marx kind of rubbed out on the translation from French to Russian).
So instead of a total loss in percentage terms of 7% of the Russian combat-capable groups, it is possible that upwards of 25% has been destroyed, and another 12% or more has been compromised to the point of reduced capability/combat ineffective.
One can envisage that the general staff has been at the public trough with phantom fighters, (around…. 750:104, approx 6 phantoms for every actual combat effective soldier) and living high on the hog (apologies to my Muslim and Israeli friends) and it would seem quite possible that the siphoning of the public purse to the generals was not known by Putin before he pulled the trigger on Ukraine, on 24 Feb 22. One can imagine the consternation in the general ranks when they were ordered to go get Kyiv, and do it in 3 days.
Broadly, this would put Russia’s juggernaut and much-feared military in the same league as the Iraqi army, there is a lot of similarities, in fact, Iraq under Saddam had what is probably a stronger ground force than Russia may have today.
What does that mean? It actually may heighten the risks of a TNW being delivered into Ukraine, which would be the absolute worst outcome for Russia as well, and would lead to the total collapse of Russia over a very short period of time. I won’t expand on that here, but there are compelling reasons why Russia gets an own goal if they deploy a TNW, with a fairly high level of mathematical certainty of a really bad outcome for them. It doesn’t mean any proportional response occurs, it is a socioeconomic/geopolitical bad day out. The next worst case is, given that at the very best lucky breaks in the next 2 weeks that heaven forbid Russia takes the East, and South and arrives on the border of Transnistria (where? The little Soviet throwback sliver of Moldova, needs paint, pavement, food and flavour, not in that order) and occupies part or all of Ukraine…. That will take another 25% of the total combat forces, so they are down to 50,000-75,000 total effective combat troops at that point.
And they want to rule one annoyed and capable people? Of ~45 Million inhabitants? Where they need a 40:1 ratio to check an insurgency? This is actually probably the biggest win for the West, certainly not for Ukraine, but is assures that Russia will be bankrupted in short order, and loose all offensive capability without any gain, as they cannot subdue the population, they can try, but the population doesn’t believe the story of “assistance” and “help” that is being sold. In fact, Russia has a problem even in the Donbas with it’s own unilaterally declared independent states, the people there had no great interest in either Russian “opportunities” or war, and are pretty raw from being murdered and raped and plundered by the Russian forces that came to liberate them. With friends like Putin, you don’t need enemies.
40:1 for 45 million is…. A lot. The actual forces they will have combat ready straight away are… around 50-75,000, for 45 million, which is a bit shy of 40:1, it is 1:600, or, say, a boost in numbers needed of about 2,400 times. As the military age insurgents would be about half that number, call it 1,200 times greater than the currently available forces. Yeah, not gonna happen.
All of this takes place in the utter collapse of Russia as a supplier of energy and arms to the rest of the world. The capacity of the T-72/80/90s to launch turrets into low earth orbit is impressive but suggests that operators of those tank designs will ditch Russia as a supplier, there are cheaper ways of killing your own soldiers. Still impressive lollypop launches though. Nothing that junking every Russian weapon system and asking France, Germany, UK, USA, Finland, Sweden, South Korea and Japan to provide won’t fix. I would think that the return counter of the Russian arms organization will be needing more call center assistance.
The SU-34, what were you thinking?
The SU-35S, when doing SEAD, the intent is to take out the other guy and get your guy back home, seems that something is crossed up on that conversation.
The SU-25, faaaaaantastic low-level flyby for display of force, but on your own population… huh?
The much-feared Ka-50/52. Interesting take, add more flares as the old stingers still are effective. Against Starstreak, add faster reaction time to your ejection system/rotor dismount…
Back to the maths, Russia may have scored an own goal from the utterly foreseeable consequences of a corrupt system, that has caused untold suffering to it’s own citizens and combat troops. That is pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as attacking a sovereign nation and attempting to subjugate them, while conducting war crimes, criminal actions, and genocide.
So what? Ukraine still has a capable enemy in front of it, it is just not quite the “baba yaga” of John wick fame… it is instead the Emperor with no clothes. NATO and the west need to ensure that Ukraine has a ready capability of ready ordinance on hand to counter every attempt by the Russians to find a weak spot in the established fortifications that are being held so ably by Ukraine. Additional capability to recover territory should be considered where the opportunity arises to exploit a weakness in the defenses of the Russians, as in putting 50 general staff in the one location and being able to be tracked. (Adios 49th). If the figures are as I am seeing, then the Ukrainians have a great opportunity to negotiate a return to the earlier borders, and the return of Crimea to rightful ownership with an agreed process for maintaining a stable and secure border.
Russia has sullied it’s international reputation catastrophically, has destroyed it’s own combat capability, and is seen to be untrustworthy, and without honor. That is to be clear, not at the average individual’s level, it is the institution of government that has led to this situation. Russia has guaranteed that NATO must expand to include Finland, Sweden, and even the Swiss need to think this out carefully. Ukraine needs an article 5 type of protection, even if not introduced to NATO, Moldova needs protection as well, and all of this is directly resulting from Vladimir Putin and his aspiration to be emperor, and the inherent fear of invasion that seems curiously odd considering history since 1945.
Russia doesn’t have a play that results in a happy ending, it has options to mitigate the damage, and it is conceivable that Putin can even restore some faith in his leadership if indeed he was not aware that the generals had been raiding the larder as he has done for the term of his presidency and longer. If I was Putin, I would be politely asking for some forgiveness for my paranoia and requesting an immediate ceasefire, and a withdrawal with UN peacekeepers/observers to move all arms out of the occupied areas of Donbas, reverse the annexation decree, permit determination without interference of the 2014 area Luhansk and Donetsk regions (not the oblast), and ensure that it is demilitarised, and that have a stern talking to my general staff back at the ranch for following the lead of the lords and masters. There is a lot to regret here, but there is more if this continues on a road to a shellackin'. I would also ask the world to give a measure of assurance that NATO truly is a defensive body, apparently, that gets missed in translation.
The world has far more pressing problems to get on with, this is in the end more than a distraction, it is adding to the catastrophic problems that are approaching all of us this year that the adults in the room seem to be either ignorant of, or ambivalent to.
P.S.: Lavrov's rhetoric on WW-III arises from his awareness that the Russian army is a Zombie force now, (some may be "V"ombie) He appears to be aware that Russia doesn't have any existing combat capability worth a darn left and is out of cash, time and talent to reconstitute the Army after this calamitous war started by Putin on the assumption that their advertising was true. How WW-III helps Russia at this time is not known.
apologies to Hans Christian Andersen, (1837)
Spoiler alert: this goes on a little bit
Russia was reported to have 174 BTG in 2020. Each BTG has an establishment of around 630 to 800 troops. The BTG includes a series of component capabilities, be it mechanized (MBTs…), combined mechanized, (MBT + APC/IFVs etc). The APC/IFVs tend to have larger manpower sizes, each BTR/BMP/BMD etc takes a crew of 3 normally, and between 6 and 8 dismounted troops. The MBTs run around with 3 crew on most Soviet and later MBTs. SAM/AAA/SP Artillery and towed artillery all have a complement to suit their needs, turns out to be around 5-6 crew per unit on average. Quartermaster/supply has its own manpower needs, which run around 2-3 crew per vehicle, 2 being common. Intel/HQ etc add more tail to the beast. The teeth are in the BTG groups, supplied by the transport system.
Looking at the Order of Battle for the Southern and Western divisions of the Red force, the figures give roughly 104K for the south, 150K for the west, 200K for the central and 200K for the eastern division, with a further 50K coming from the navy.
The verified losses to date (well, to 23 APR 22) indicate that direct losses suffered by the Red force have been close to 40 BTGs. After reconstitution, the Red force are stated to have 65BTGs remaining. Most of that is from the consolidation of the starting force on 24 FEB 22. Red force suggests they are adding a further 22 BTG to the fray, taking the force to… 87 BTG. Out of 174 total BTG, that’s 50% of the total BTG formations as of 2020.
The losses that can be calculated using the probability of loss for a vehicle loss and the known vehicle losses match quite closely the figures from the URA, as in, they are very close to the stated fatalities, and are not apparently adding in injuries and captures to inflate those losses. The figure will have errors, but they are not self-deluding as far as ground force attrition goes.
With the remaining consolidated forces (56), and the addition of another 22 BTGs, that will take the in theatre BTGs up to 50% of the nominal establishment of the Red forces without general mobilization. The losses in the last 2 months are… 23% of the tabled forces in 2020. Nothing so far suggests that there was a surge in the establishment of BTGs between 2020 and Feb 2022.
So what does this mean? Simply, the Red force never had an army of 750,000 troops to send into combat. It is likely that the real combat force size is around 200,000-250,000, and ¼ of that has already been destroyed, and at least an 1/8 of the remainder are impacted by the shock of the last 8 weeks.
Is it possible that the 750,000 force size never existed, and it is 1/3rd of that? Absolutely. Russia has bred a kleptocracy from the top downwards, it is an expected part of the Soviet-era ethos, so much for equality and fraternity. (forget about liberty, that is one of those things that Marx kind of rubbed out on the translation from French to Russian).
So instead of a total loss in percentage terms of 7% of the Russian combat-capable groups, it is possible that upwards of 25% has been destroyed, and another 12% or more has been compromised to the point of reduced capability/combat ineffective.
One can envisage that the general staff has been at the public trough with phantom fighters, (around…. 750:104, approx 6 phantoms for every actual combat effective soldier) and living high on the hog (apologies to my Muslim and Israeli friends) and it would seem quite possible that the siphoning of the public purse to the generals was not known by Putin before he pulled the trigger on Ukraine, on 24 Feb 22. One can imagine the consternation in the general ranks when they were ordered to go get Kyiv, and do it in 3 days.
Broadly, this would put Russia’s juggernaut and much-feared military in the same league as the Iraqi army, there is a lot of similarities, in fact, Iraq under Saddam had what is probably a stronger ground force than Russia may have today.
What does that mean? It actually may heighten the risks of a TNW being delivered into Ukraine, which would be the absolute worst outcome for Russia as well, and would lead to the total collapse of Russia over a very short period of time. I won’t expand on that here, but there are compelling reasons why Russia gets an own goal if they deploy a TNW, with a fairly high level of mathematical certainty of a really bad outcome for them. It doesn’t mean any proportional response occurs, it is a socioeconomic/geopolitical bad day out. The next worst case is, given that at the very best lucky breaks in the next 2 weeks that heaven forbid Russia takes the East, and South and arrives on the border of Transnistria (where? The little Soviet throwback sliver of Moldova, needs paint, pavement, food and flavour, not in that order) and occupies part or all of Ukraine…. That will take another 25% of the total combat forces, so they are down to 50,000-75,000 total effective combat troops at that point.
And they want to rule one annoyed and capable people? Of ~45 Million inhabitants? Where they need a 40:1 ratio to check an insurgency? This is actually probably the biggest win for the West, certainly not for Ukraine, but is assures that Russia will be bankrupted in short order, and loose all offensive capability without any gain, as they cannot subdue the population, they can try, but the population doesn’t believe the story of “assistance” and “help” that is being sold. In fact, Russia has a problem even in the Donbas with it’s own unilaterally declared independent states, the people there had no great interest in either Russian “opportunities” or war, and are pretty raw from being murdered and raped and plundered by the Russian forces that came to liberate them. With friends like Putin, you don’t need enemies.
40:1 for 45 million is…. A lot. The actual forces they will have combat ready straight away are… around 50-75,000, for 45 million, which is a bit shy of 40:1, it is 1:600, or, say, a boost in numbers needed of about 2,400 times. As the military age insurgents would be about half that number, call it 1,200 times greater than the currently available forces. Yeah, not gonna happen.
All of this takes place in the utter collapse of Russia as a supplier of energy and arms to the rest of the world. The capacity of the T-72/80/90s to launch turrets into low earth orbit is impressive but suggests that operators of those tank designs will ditch Russia as a supplier, there are cheaper ways of killing your own soldiers. Still impressive lollypop launches though. Nothing that junking every Russian weapon system and asking France, Germany, UK, USA, Finland, Sweden, South Korea and Japan to provide won’t fix. I would think that the return counter of the Russian arms organization will be needing more call center assistance.
The SU-34, what were you thinking?
The SU-35S, when doing SEAD, the intent is to take out the other guy and get your guy back home, seems that something is crossed up on that conversation.
The SU-25, faaaaaantastic low-level flyby for display of force, but on your own population… huh?
The much-feared Ka-50/52. Interesting take, add more flares as the old stingers still are effective. Against Starstreak, add faster reaction time to your ejection system/rotor dismount…
Back to the maths, Russia may have scored an own goal from the utterly foreseeable consequences of a corrupt system, that has caused untold suffering to it’s own citizens and combat troops. That is pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as attacking a sovereign nation and attempting to subjugate them, while conducting war crimes, criminal actions, and genocide.
So what? Ukraine still has a capable enemy in front of it, it is just not quite the “baba yaga” of John wick fame… it is instead the Emperor with no clothes. NATO and the west need to ensure that Ukraine has a ready capability of ready ordinance on hand to counter every attempt by the Russians to find a weak spot in the established fortifications that are being held so ably by Ukraine. Additional capability to recover territory should be considered where the opportunity arises to exploit a weakness in the defenses of the Russians, as in putting 50 general staff in the one location and being able to be tracked. (Adios 49th). If the figures are as I am seeing, then the Ukrainians have a great opportunity to negotiate a return to the earlier borders, and the return of Crimea to rightful ownership with an agreed process for maintaining a stable and secure border.
Russia has sullied it’s international reputation catastrophically, has destroyed it’s own combat capability, and is seen to be untrustworthy, and without honor. That is to be clear, not at the average individual’s level, it is the institution of government that has led to this situation. Russia has guaranteed that NATO must expand to include Finland, Sweden, and even the Swiss need to think this out carefully. Ukraine needs an article 5 type of protection, even if not introduced to NATO, Moldova needs protection as well, and all of this is directly resulting from Vladimir Putin and his aspiration to be emperor, and the inherent fear of invasion that seems curiously odd considering history since 1945.
Russia doesn’t have a play that results in a happy ending, it has options to mitigate the damage, and it is conceivable that Putin can even restore some faith in his leadership if indeed he was not aware that the generals had been raiding the larder as he has done for the term of his presidency and longer. If I was Putin, I would be politely asking for some forgiveness for my paranoia and requesting an immediate ceasefire, and a withdrawal with UN peacekeepers/observers to move all arms out of the occupied areas of Donbas, reverse the annexation decree, permit determination without interference of the 2014 area Luhansk and Donetsk regions (not the oblast), and ensure that it is demilitarised, and that have a stern talking to my general staff back at the ranch for following the lead of the lords and masters. There is a lot to regret here, but there is more if this continues on a road to a shellackin'. I would also ask the world to give a measure of assurance that NATO truly is a defensive body, apparently, that gets missed in translation.
The world has far more pressing problems to get on with, this is in the end more than a distraction, it is adding to the catastrophic problems that are approaching all of us this year that the adults in the room seem to be either ignorant of, or ambivalent to.
P.S.: Lavrov's rhetoric on WW-III arises from his awareness that the Russian army is a Zombie force now, (some may be "V"ombie) He appears to be aware that Russia doesn't have any existing combat capability worth a darn left and is out of cash, time and talent to reconstitute the Army after this calamitous war started by Putin on the assumption that their advertising was true. How WW-III helps Russia at this time is not known.
Last edited by fdr; 26th Apr 2022 at 06:28.
CNN are showing them following ambulance crews in Kharkiv, the Russians do a double tap, shelling buildings to cause wounded, then repeating the shelling to hit the emergency services, 50 of their 200 ambulances are out of service due to shrapnel damage and they only have enough helmets for one in three of the crews, which they give to the drivers.
Convention (I) for the Amelioration of the Condition of the Wounded and Sick in Armed Forces in the Field, Geneva, 12 August 1949
ARTICLE 12 : PROTECTION AND CARE OF THE WOUNDED AND SICK
(1) Members of the armed forces and other persons mentioned in the following Article, who are wounded or sick, shall be respected and protected in all circumstances.
(2) They shall be treated humanely and cared for by the Party to the conflict in whose power they may be, without any adverse distinction founded on sex, race, nationality, religion, political opinions, or any other similar criteria. Any attempts upon their lives, or violence to their persons, shall be strictly prohibited; in particular, they shall not be murdered or exterminated, subjected to torture or to biological experiments; they shall not wilfully be left without medical assistance and care, nor shall conditions exposing them to contagion or infection be created.
(3) Only urgent medical reasons will authorize priority in the order of treatment to be administered.
(4) Women shall be treated with all consideration due to their sex.
(5) The Party to the conflict which is compelled to abandon wounded or sick to the enemy shall, as far as military considerations permit, leave with them a part of its medical personnel and material to assist in their care.
* Paragraph numbers have been added for ease of reference.
Конвенция (I) об улучшении участи раненых и больных в действующих вооруженных силах, Женева, 12 августа 1949 г.
СТАТЬЯ 12: ЗАЩИТА РАНЕНЫХ И БОЛЬНЫХ И УХОД ЗА РАНЕННЫМИ И БОЛЬНЫМИ
(1) Военнослужащие и другие лица, упомянутые в следующей статье, которые ранены или больны, пользуются уважением и защитой при любых обстоятельствах.
(2) Сторона в конфликте, во власти которой они могут находиться, должна относиться к ним гуманно и заботиться о них без каких-либо неблагоприятных различий, основанных на поле, расе, национальности, религии, политических убеждениях или любых других подобных критериях. Любые покушения на их жизнь или насилие над их личностью должны быть строго запрещены; в частности, они не должны быть убиты или истреблены, подвергнуты пыткам или биологическим экспериментам; они не должны умышленно оставаться без медицинской помощи и ухода, а также не должны создаваться условия, подвергающие их заражению или заражению.
(3) Только неотложные медицинские причины разрешают приоритет в порядке лечения.
(4) К женщинам следует относиться со всем вниманием, соответствующим их полу.
(5) Сторона, находящаяся в конфликте, которая вынуждена оставить раненых или больных противнику, должна, насколько позволяют военные соображения, оставить с ними часть своего медицинского персонала и материальных средств для помощи в уходе за ними.
* Номера абзацев добавлены для удобства поиска.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
So what does this mean? Simply, the Red force never had an army of 750,000 troops to send into combat. It is likely that the real combat force size is around 200,000-250,000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...rces#Personnel
Conscripts aren’t supposed to be sent into combat - but they did ignore that in the first wave surprise attack sending in those deployed on exercise. They have a major political problem, however, in sending any more - families are watching and conscripts are refusing to go. Hence the desperate attempts to get them to sign contracts and attempts to recruit more professionals (failing).
All this adding to the pressures to declare war and start mobilisation. That will take months or years however - and where do they get the equipment from?
The known size of the Russian army is/was around 400K - including 200K conscripts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...rces#Personnel
Conscripts aren’t supposed to be sent into combat - but they did ignore that in the first wave surprise attack sending in those deployed on exercise. They have a major political problem, however, in sending any more - families are watching and conscripts are refusing to go. Hence the desperate attempts to get them to sign contracts and attempts to recruit more professionals (failing).
All this adding to the pressures to declare war and start mobilisation. That will take months or years however - and where do they get the equipment from?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...rces#Personnel
Conscripts aren’t supposed to be sent into combat - but they did ignore that in the first wave surprise attack sending in those deployed on exercise. They have a major political problem, however, in sending any more - families are watching and conscripts are refusing to go. Hence the desperate attempts to get them to sign contracts and attempts to recruit more professionals (failing).
All this adding to the pressures to declare war and start mobilisation. That will take months or years however - and where do they get the equipment from?
The following is from IRP.FAS.ORG. https://irp.fas.org/world/russia/tradoc-refguide.pdf
For 2020
If you exclude conscripts as Putin has never reneged on something that he has said, then the larder is already bare, taking 120K conscripts out of the equation means that there is quite possibly zero current reserves anywhere. The anomaly comes up when you add up the OOB for the units and look at how many units they are supposed to have... it doesn't add up, not by a long shot. That would add some urgency to Mr Lavrov's threats that Ukraine (and the west) has to bow down to the emperor who has no clothes.
If anyone has any better figures, then I am all ears, I am as concerned about this as relieved; If Putin is looking at the abyss, then the irrational response of dial-a-dump of sunshine is a possibility, even though it hurts Russia for the next 100 years. Why, cuz they end up smoking the very people they have "come to help". Not a good look, don't expect x-mas cards, and it is upwind of their own country. There is no win for Russia in popping a TNW. They don't win the hearts of Ukraine by doing that, so how does that actually achieve anything other than a headline for 1000 years?
If the figures are correct, then the last thing Russia wants is for Russians to know about the fraud to their own defenses. If it is unavoidable, then the prisoners' dilemma for Putin is how to blame the generals, and that is something he is a past master of.
Therefore, I would think that this is a notable headline matter for news media if it is corroborated. There are people with the data in front of them right now, and they need to start giving that to the public to head off the gang who couldn't shoot straight from going over a cliff.
All things are possible, but... "Guys! ...the figures don't add up, and I think Houston knows that, and they don't... [fill the blanks]" apologies to Apollo 13, the film, (The conversation didn't happen as far as I am aware
).6 out of 7 Combat troops seem to be parts of a phantom army. Good salary boost if you are their generals.
Britain supports Ukraine's right to attack Russian territory & to use Western-donated munitions to do so, James Heappey declares. Defence minister tells Times Radio that Moscow started the war & it's 'completely legitimate' for Kyiv to target Russia's 'depth' & logistics.
Heappey recognises the weapons the West is giving to Ukraine 'have the range to be used over the border' of Russia. Lavrov won't be happy about that. I wonder what other targets UKR/SAS have in mind. Good. Things are going in the right direction and Great Britain is leading the way.
Heappey recognises the weapons the West is giving to Ukraine 'have the range to be used over the border' of Russia. Lavrov won't be happy about that. I wonder what other targets UKR/SAS have in mind. Good. Things are going in the right direction and Great Britain is leading the way.
Britain supports Ukraine's right to attack Russian territory & to use Western-donated munitions to do so, James Heappey declares. Defence minister tells Times Radio that Moscow started the war & it's 'completely legitimate' for Kyiv to target Russia's 'depth' & logistics.
Heappey recognises the weapons the West is giving to Ukraine 'have the range to be used over the border' of Russia. Lavrov won't be happy about that. I wonder what other targets UKR/SAS have in mind. Good. Things are going in the right direction and Great Britain is leading the way.
Heappey recognises the weapons the West is giving to Ukraine 'have the range to be used over the border' of Russia. Lavrov won't be happy about that. I wonder what other targets UKR/SAS have in mind. Good. Things are going in the right direction and Great Britain is leading the way.
I'm with Ukraine and Britain on this. Completely legitimate logistical target.
The Kerch (Crimean) Bridge comes to mind quite easily. Ukraine already stated that it'll do its outmost to take it out if the opportunity shall arise. The Kremlin Kriminals then said that it would be a terrorist attack.
I'm with Ukraine and Britain on this. Completely legitimate logistical target.
I'm with Ukraine and Britain on this. Completely legitimate logistical target.
Germany will provide Ukraine with 50 Gepard anti aircraft tanks. I hope they send sufficient amount of ammo as well to those 35mm Oerlikons.
Also, Germany will double military support to Ukraine to 2bn Euros.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nks-to-ukraine
Also, Germany will double military support to Ukraine to 2bn Euros.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nks-to-ukraine
So are the Western leaders finally realising that this is a chance to put Putin firmly back in his box and remove most of the Russian threat much of Europe has been living in fear of for the foreseeable future?
I note that the NATO airborne activity has been heavily concentrated in this area recently, with the Global Hawk being tucked in tight to the border all Sunday night.
Now that makes for interesting problems for Emperor Putin. 600km pretty much goes up to NW of Moscow, to Tver.... Don't expect that the Tver fire at the defense research facility was an attack, it was an old building with bad wiring by all accounts, but the air defense problem becomes immense for Russia, including the whole of Kaliningrad. they have to decide if they want to protect their unfortunate SU-34s and 35s over Ukraine, or protect point defense of half of west and all od southern Russia. Interdicting production or supply is a big ask, and once deployed, it is a replay of the western desert scud hunting.
If you know the cruise missile configuration, that would be helpful.
If you know the cruise missile configuration, that would be helpful.
https://defence-ua.com/
Searching in Ukrainian I'd beyond me but there was an 5 articles from 2018 about testing the various weapons systems that had been developed. They make a lot of weapons.
I am not sold on the idea of dropping the Kerch bridge. Apart from reprisals for such an attack, it may be costly to achieve and the resultant wreckage could block the access to the Sea of Azov, which needs thinking through. There are other, less costly, means of denying or hindering the use of the bridge short of its destruction.