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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 26th Apr 2022, 10:51
  #4721 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by peter we
look here.
https://defence-ua.com/
Searching in Ukrainian I'd beyond me but there was an 5 articles from 2018 about testing the various weapons systems that had been developed. They make a lot of weapons.
on the other hand could be Himars
https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/...roji-7110.html


https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/novitni_rszv_m270_ta_himars_vid_ssha_vzhe_nischjat_rashistiv _gur_zrobilo_tonkij_natjak-7108.html
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 11:05
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
I am not sold on the idea of dropping the Kerch bridge. Apart from reprisals for such an attack, it may be costly to achieve and the resultant wreckage could block the access to the Sea of Azov, which needs thinking through. There are other, less costly, means of denying or hindering the use of the bridge short of its destruction.
Ukraine once had port access in the Sea of Azov, which was denied by an aggressor called Putin. The denial of the Sea of Azov is an objective. After murdering thousands of civilians, and executing unarmed people, I'm not sure that being upset about stopping a boat or two from accessing an enemy port is an issue. In January, I would have said otherwise, after 24 FEB and after Bucha, nah, not going to lose sleep over that. Russia isn't just after Ukraine, they have publicly stated they want to connect to another breakaway group in Moldova, heck, there is the Borsht and Tears in Knightsbridge, so lets declare that as a breakaway republic from blighty, and make a day of that too.

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Old 26th Apr 2022, 11:11
  #4723 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon...o-arm-ukraine/

Calling all weapons makers: Pentagon seeks new ideas to arm Ukraine

WASHINGTON ― In its effort to quickly arm Ukraine against Russia, the Pentagon has announced the equivalent of an open casting call for companies to offer weapons and commercial systems that can be rushed to the fight.

The Defense Department on Friday posted a broad request for information from industry on the federal contracting website sam.gov. The move is part of a stepped-up dialogue between the Pentagon and industry, and a sign of the challenge of boosting arms production in response to the ongoing conflict.

The RFI, on behalf of the new undersecretary of defense for acquisitions and sustainment, Bill LaPlante, is seeking input “from across industry” about air defense, anti-armor, anti-personnel, coastal defense, counter battery, unmanned aerial systems, and communications equipment, such as secure radios and satellite internet gear.

To that end, the DoD asks that responding companies describe their weapon, product or system in 100 words or less, and ― in the case of munitions ― check off “appropriate target type(s),” such as area, fixed, airborne/missile, maritime, mine, moving, hard or soft. The RFI says information received will be used to develop requirements for an actual solicitation at a later date……

The cutoff for submissions is May 6, and the DoD is evaluating proposals on a rolling basis…..

Have the correct contacts now for the US DOD on this RFI/RFP. Any person needing same, you can PM me, and I will provide the information, need confirmation of identity.
Back in 2012-2017 we had a relationship with a prime contractor, that is no longer the case. Any current SAM registered suppliers, prime or secondary, I would be interested in a discussion on proposal. I have made a proposal for URA, NATO (and USA of course) and AUS. Prefer to include JPN and ROK, but am foreign entity, unknown what position OSD has on Ferringhi at present, last time with the clown at AATD it was not impressive. Open to the proposal for current SAM registered suppliers for JV.

Most of my work is in performance, prop/rotor/wings, low speed and up to supersonic, but have one additional proposal for an interesting munition, that is proposed as well.
An indicator of the effectiveness of the mod, the one on the rotor, the normal RPM to stall is 82%, modified it is 68%. Normal case hits max left pedal as the rotor stalls (exciting, even at 1/2" skid height) Modified, at 68%, the left pedal demand is 50%.

Question:
1. what is the change in CL given the above observations
2. what is the minimum change in applied torque.... use a linear approximation of TR CL, Max Left 14, Neutral 0.

just an old school maths problem....


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Old 26th Apr 2022, 11:32
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Originally Posted by fdr
Ukraine once had port access in the Sea of Azov, which was denied by an aggressor called Putin. The denial of the Sea of Azov is an objective. After murdering thousands of civilians, and executing unarmed people, I'm not sure that being upset about stopping a boat or two from accessing an enemy port is an issue. In January, I would have said otherwise, after 24 FEB and after Bucha, nah, not going to lose sleep over that. Russia isn't just after Ukraine, they have publicly stated they want to connect to another breakaway group in Moldova, heck, there is the Borsht and Tears in Knightsbridge, so lets declare that as a breakaway republic from blighty, and make a day of that too.
That is a short term argument and there is a lot of maritime traffic to Rostov that could be interdicted. Is there a counter argument based on the longer term post war requirement? For example the relief and rebuilding of Mariupol?
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 11:57
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 12:08
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I have to hand it to the Ukranian PR campaign



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Old 26th Apr 2022, 12:24
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As regards cut price defensive and offensive weapon systems. a few weird and wonderful WWII ideas should be operational now!!

Balloon Barrage. Took out a few V-1's in 1944. With modern electronics could come with small proximity fuzed warheads up the line (fibre optical line would allow remote arming / disarming), plus lightweight carbon fibre / nylon lines would allow stuff that goes bang to be strung between balloons.

Operation Outbound. Royal Navy balloon bombing campaign against German electrical grid and rail electrical system. Balloons dragged wire over power lines causing Phase shorts between the lines or the ground with shorted out the power systems causing trips of Substation breakers and damage to transformers . US did the same against Iraq gird with wire chucking Cruise Missiles in 1991. Use drones.

Parachute and cable system. Rockets today can be fitted with very cheap guidance systems that will allow them to fly in a direction you want and deal with any off axis disturbance. Build a device that will fire 5 rockets at the same time in a 120 degree arc from a central location with carefully packed lightweight cables in between them out to a distance of 200 metres of so with the device hidden on a hedge line as a Russian Helicopter just about to fly over it at low level. Attach some warheads to the rockets and cables bottoms. Warhead self destruct after 30 seconds or so if the lines don't wrap around the chopper and drag a bomb on to it. Would have a faster reaction time than a MANPADS.
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 12:35
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It seems a lot of Russian upper echelon are disappearing...

https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/n...eared-from?s=r

Parachute and cable system. Rockets today can be fitted with very cheap guidance systems that will allow them to fly in a direction you want and deal with any off axis disturbance. Build a device that will fire 5 rockets at the same time in a 120 degree arc from a central location with carefully packed lightweight cables in between them out to a distance of 200 metres of so with the device hidden on a hedge line as a Russian Helicopter just about to fly over it at low level. Attach some warheads to the rockets and cables bottoms. Warhead self destruct after 30 seconds or so if the lines don't wrap around the chopper and drag a bomb on to it. Would have a faster reaction time than a MANPADS.
Or
https://defense-update.com/20110124_...on_subsys.html
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 12:50
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
I am not sold on the idea of dropping the Kerch bridge. Apart from reprisals for such an attack, it may be costly to achieve and the resultant wreckage could block the access to the Sea of Azov, which needs thinking through. There are other, less costly, means of denying or hindering the use of the bridge short of its destruction.
Plenty of options for destroying the function of the Kerch bridge without blocking sea passage.


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Old 26th Apr 2022, 13:42
  #4730 (permalink)  
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Things are escalating in Moldova/Transnistria after yesterdays “attacks”. Two more reported today.

Just not sure what they and Russia can do. They aren’t up to attacking Ukraine in the rear without Moldova doing the same to them. Meanwhile Russian forces aren’t in a position to break through past Mykolaiv, let alone past Odessa - and I don’t think they’d risk an amphibious landing.

They wouldn’t be mad enough to try another airborne assault would they?

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Old 26th Apr 2022, 14:10
  #4731 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
That is a short term argument and there is a lot of maritime traffic to Rostov that could be interdicted. Is there a counter argument based on the longer term post war requirement? For example the relief and rebuilding of Mariupol?
If the access to the sea is not interdicted now, then the assumption of recovery of Mariupol is moot. Any action that precludes access to Crimea from the southeast, and impacts the ability for Russia to transfer munitions around to Sevastopol are worth considering. Look on the brightside, the rebuilding of a bridge and dredging of the channel gets to be paid from the funds frozen from the Russian accounts, there has been considerable consideration of that outcome. The problem is immediate, and that is of more concern now than later.

The good thing is, that the discussion at all, makes a need for Russia to reset AAA/SAM capability. There are 4 x S300 locations around Crimea that have been identified and indicated in the public domain. Of those, only one would have any effect to a strike on the western end of Kerch's bridge.

With a 300-600km range of cruise missiles that the URA has come up with, the Red forces have new problems with the defense of their MSR, and that is going to be taking away capability from other areas. Each battery takes combat teams to operate, so dispersal of Red force away from the FEBA is not a bad thing.

If Lavrov is sensitive to having missiles fired at infrastructure, perhaps next time he will be a little more careful in starting something without consideration of the consequences. My cat has about as much of a say as Lavrov has in the affairs of the evil empire of Vlad, and at least my cat is occasionally friendly.
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 14:14
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It seems a lot of Russian upper echelon are disappearing...

https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/n...eared-from?s=r
I felt strangely unable to click on the link labelled "Subscribe to Russia's War on Democracy" ...
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 14:14
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Oddly enough reading this

https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-ch.../31476839.html

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov argued that the Russian troops in Transnistria were mostly guarding the arms depot, and that a pullout would leave that site unsecured. Polygraph previously fact-checked that claim and similar ones and found them misleading.

The Russian troops that are not operating under the authority of the Joint Control Commission are not neutral peacekeepers and are accused of propping up the separatist state and its military. They have held joint military exercises with the Transnistrian armed forces.

It was the intervention of Russian troops in 1992 that secured Transnistria’s de facto autonomy from Moldova. Since then, the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have repeatedly called for Russia unconditionally to remove its troops from Moldovan territory.

Russia and the OSCE signed an agreement in Istanbul in 1999 that set a deadline for Russian troops to leave by 2002. Nothing has budged.
and a clue to the size of it from 2017

Moraru has now sent a letter to the UN to ask to include the topic of the removal of the Russian troops on its agenda.

“The government of Moldova, according to Article 11 of the UN status, is calling for the inclusion of the issue of definite removal of international military troops from the territory of Transnistria on the agenda of the 72nd session of the General Assembly,” Moldpress quoted the letter as saying.

The information was confirmed by parliamentary speaker Andrian Candu, claiming that “for 25 years, under the pretext of a peackeeping mission,” Russia “illegally maintains troops, ammunition and arms” on Moldova’s territory.

“At the end of this session, the parliament adopted a declaration demanding that they should be withdrawn and the Moldova’s neutrality and statehood should be respected. It was not a simple document. We will continue to do everything to reintegrate the territory,” Candu wrote on Facebook.

Moldova’s Constitutional Court ruled on May 2 that the Moldovan authorities are entitled to use any means in order to prevent any situation (including the presence of foreign troops on its territory) affecting the country’s neutrality.

GOTR (Operative Group of Russian Troops) has been maintained by Russia in the Moldovan separatist republic of Transnistria with the declared mission of securing the 20,000 tonnes of ammunition left from the USSR.

Moldova and Ukraine took control this year of their border and removed Transnistria's involvement in the process, which generated economic hardship to the separatist region. This came after Moldova cut electricity purchases from Transnistria, generating even deeper losses in the separatist region.
https://www.intellinews.com/moldova-...istria-127689/

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Old 26th Apr 2022, 14:16
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
I felt strangely unable to click on the link labelled "Subscribe to Russia's War on Democracy" ...
Not a problem, read on

Not only Shoigu disappeared from the public space, but also other key security officials - Zolotov, Bortnikov and Kostyukov

I am reposting this interesting article that appeared earlier today in Moscow Times.

Moscow Times

Not only Sergei Shoigu fell out of the public field, but almost all the main security officials. We came to this conclusion after studying the reports in the media and official sources about the activities of Viktor Zolotov, Igor Kostyukov, Valery Gerasimov, and Alexander Bortnikov. They all disappeared at about the same time.

The head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, disappeared on March 13, right after he went to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior and accepted the icon from the hands of the Patriarch himself. Then Zolotov complained to the Primate of the Russian Orthodox Church that in the war with Ukraine "not everything is going as fast as we would like." Prior to that, on March 11, Zolotov presented awards to the Russian Guardsmen who distinguished themselves in hostilities. There were no more videos of him.

The last photo with Zolotov hangs on the website of the Russian Guard in a publication dated March 22. It says that he held a working meeting in Moscow with the leadership of the department. At the same time, initially, the material appeared for some reason on the website of the Samara department of the Russian Guard. There were no videos or any comments from this event.

At the same time, after March 13, the name of Zolotov was mentioned in the news of the state media only in connection with the sanctions of Japan and the United States. On March 17, information appeared that Zolotov allegedly fired his deputy Roman Gavrilov. According to some reports, Gavrilov was his close friend and was "person number 2" in the Russian Guard. media claimed that Gavrilov was detained on suspicion of embezzling funds from the National Guard, which were intended for fighters fighting in Ukraine.

The name of the Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov also ceased to appear in the media. On March 12, he had a conversation with a colleague from Turkey, and on March 4 he discussed the situation in Ukraine with the Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burcar. There are no more messages, as well as photos or videos, with Gerasimov.

On March 24, the Pentagon announced that Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were refusing to speak to them on the phone. The last time they spoke was February 18.

There is no information about the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Igor Kostyukov. Recently, only the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov wrote about him. According to his sources, Kostyukov's health has "drastically deteriorated" - the military man is experiencing a "burning sensation in the heart."

Alexander Bortnikov appeared only at meetings of the Security Council led by Putin on March 24 and 11. At the same time, the director of the FSB was dressed in the same clothes (even the color of the tie was the same - red), behind him the same background, and the frame itself was exactly the same angle. On both broadcasts, Bortnikov appears only for a few seconds and does not utter a word. There is no more news about him.

Earlier, the media wrote that the head of the Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, had ceased to appear in public space since March 11. Sources close to the minister said he was "unwell and has heart problems."

After Shoigu was shown on video on March 24, he allegedly took part in a meeting of the Security Council with Putin. However, we found that the footage with the minister is very similar to the broadcast from a similar meeting on March 11th. The minister's tie has moved in the same direction, the background has not changed either. Mediazona came to the same conclusion.
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 14:16
  #4735 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Things are escalating in Moldova/Transnistria after yesterdays “attacks”. Two more reported today.

Just not sure what they and Russia can do. They aren’t up to attacking Ukraine in the rear without Moldova doing the same to them. Meanwhile Russian forces aren’t in a position to break through past Mykolaiv, let alone past Odessa - and I don’t think they’d risk an amphibious landing.

They wouldn’t be mad enough to try another airborne assault would they?
No one outside of Russia would trust an internal action in an area controlled by the Russians. They have a long history of false flag operations. Seems they are tripwired to deny actual attacks by the blue team, and are happy to accuse others of their own false flag operations. At least they are consistent, you know that they are lying as their lips move.

What would be the rationale for an otherwise rational defense of Ukraine by the URA to cause any additional excuse that would support a Russian narrative to march across the south of Ukraine? There is zero tactical or strategic value in that, and the area is famous for it's adherence to Stalinist Soviet practices, of which, truth-telling is noticeably absent.

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Old 26th Apr 2022, 14:23
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
I felt strangely unable to click on the link labelled "Subscribe to Russia's War on Democracy" ...
I will also give you there thoughts on Moldova realase 10 hrs ago

Russia sets their eyes on Moldova

My warnings from the disinformation and threats coming from Moscow

Over the past several weeks there has been a significant uptick of heated rhetoric and disinformation directed at Moldova. It has gotten worse over the past two weeks and became even more worrying over this weekend. Since last year I have been warning about Moldova being a target. After Putin’s puppet Dodon lost election in 2020, Russia began an aggressive disinformation campaign towards Moldova and the Sandu government. Last fall, Russia weaponized energy putting pressure on Moldova along with other European countries, in particular Germany. Since Russia launched their brutal war crimes campaign on Ukraine the threat towards Moldova has increased. At the center of this is Russian occupied Transnistria (the West recognizes Transnistria as belonging to Moldova) which hosts Russian troops and could be used as a launchpad for Russia’s operations against Odesa and southern Ukraine.

Russia uses the presence of their troops in Transnistria to put pressure on the Moldova and run destabilizing operations against Moldova. The situation is very similar to Russia’s occupation of Donbas and it was no surprise that shortly after Putin signed his illegal decree in February to recognize Donbas as Russian territory the Kremlin puppets in Transnistria requested the same recognition.

Over the past few weeks the attacks on the Moldovan government in Russian media and the propaganda by Russian propagandists has been escalating. It feels very similar to the months leading up to the launch of Putin’s brutal campaign in Ukraine. This took an alarming turn over the weekend when Russian media reported that Russia may soon the independence of Transnistria (Pridnestrovie) in the near future. Hours after Putin signed the decree recognizing Donbas there were reports that Russian tanks rolled into Donbas. A few days later Russia officially launched their war against Ukraine.

The following are several alarming developments that were reported in Russian media over the weekend.

Here comes Russia’s pretext for protecting Russian speakers which they have used for other invasions

-On April 22, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that the goal of the "second phase of the special operation" in Ukraine is to control the south of Ukraine, which will make it possible to gain access to Transnistria, "where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population."
Russia calls President Sandu a “nazi” and announces that the recognition of Transnistria may come shortly to “uproot nazism.” Same pretext as Ukraine
From Moscow Times- Russian edition

The Russian authorities may recognize the independence of Pridnestrovie in the near future, said Viktor Vodolatsky, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs.

According to him, Pridnestrovie actually considers itself a part of Russia and wants to repeat the fate of South Ossetia, the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. Earlier, the authorities of these regions announced their desire to join the Russian Federation.

Vodolatsky said that Moldovan President Maia Sandu and “her Romanian curators” allegedly want to implement the Ukrainian scenario in Transnistria and unleash a war.

The deputy called Sanda herself a Nazi, since St. George ribbons were recently banned in the country, and now Russia needs to “uproot Nazism” in Moldova.
Pridnestrovians are our citizens. They understand that only together with Russia they themselves, their children and grandchildren can continue to live in safety and peace. All this nationalism, Nazism, which has taken root next to us, should simply be destroyed, uprooted and forgotten about for many years.
Viktor Vodolatsky added that the Pridnestrovians "are in isolation" and it is necessary to create a "corridor" to Russia.

Earlier, the acting commander of the Central Military District, Rustam Minnekaev , announced that, as part of the “second phase” of hostilities in Ukraine, the Russian army should establish full control over southern Ukraine in order to secure access to Transnistria. There, according to him, there are facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.

“ Apparently, we are now at war with the whole world, as it was in the Great Patriotic War, the whole of Europe, the whole world was against us. And now it’s the same, they never liked Russia ,” the officer said.


This conspiracy I found particularly alarming and it took me a bit to trace back the disinformation that I was seeing on social media to its source.
All day I was seeing Russian disinfo accounts spreading insanity of Romanian troops infiltrating Moldova and preparing to disguise themselves in Moldovan military uniforms to start a war. I couldn’t understand where this troubling insanity was coming from and finally found the interview where this “insider information” was revealed. It is even worse than I thought. The person who revealed this information is terrorist Igor Girkin aka Igor Strelkov, a Russian intelligence officer, who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea and occupation operations in Donbas.

The following is his interview printed in Russian media outlet Moskovsky Komsomolets

Strelkov was put in his place about the "annexation of Moldova"According to Strelkov, in all headquarters, a significant part of the Moldovan officers were replaced by officers of the Romanian army (in all key positions), and in the commandant companies of military units that perform the functions of the military police, the personnel were completely replaced by Romanians.

Also, according to him, on the territory of Moldova, warehouses of military uniforms and footwear, NATO army rations and other auxiliary military equipment are being hastily created and filled from outside. The weapon is not imported. Girkin's sources suggest that this is not necessary: ​​when the Romanian army occupies Moldova, it will "come with everything of its own." Mobilization of Moldovans, in all likelihood, is also not planned.

The statements of the former Minister of Defense of the DPR, specifically for MK, were commented by the director of the International Institute of Recent States, political scientist Alexei Martynov .

“It is clear that these statements by Girkin are just a way to remind yourself of a loved one who was completely forgotten against the backdrop of a special operation in Ukraine,” the expert believes. “There is absolutely nothing behind them. We have been hearing these tales from Transnistria for 30 years. Although a Romanian plane flew past there for the last time, probably back in 1992 ...

- Is the annexation of Moldova by Romania such an incredible scenario?

- Why is it Romania?

- They want to unite for a long time, that's a good reason.

- To unite and send troops is a big difference. With all due respect to Romania, this is not Erdogan's Turkey, which, on the sly against the backdrop of this whole situation around Ukraine, goes and takes its own in Iraq. This is not India, which is now taking Punjab, and not China, which, perhaps, will also soon go to take away its own type of Taiwan ...

- Sandu is a citizen of Romania.

- So what? Half of the governments there have Romanian citizenship. 7 of the nine constitutional judges are Romanian citizens. 70-80% of MPs have Romanian passports. Why send Romanian troops into Moldova if it is already tightly integrated with Romania. Exactly as far as Romania needs it.

- And what will happen if the Russian Federation recognizes Pridnestrovie?

- To recognize Pridnestrovie is to automatically push Moldova into Romania. This formula is already 20 years old. In order for Moldova to become Romania, no Romanian troops need to be brought in.

- But maybe Chisinau is afraid that it is the Russian Federation that can send troops?

- What for? In Transnistria, there are already 1,800 Russian soldiers, plus military depots, which are still full. If there is an Ossetian scenario - an attack on peacekeepers, then the conversation is different. But I don't think this will happen.

In order to send troops, you need some reason. There are no such grounds for Moldova. Nothing threatens Moldova, except for Ukrainian refugees, who have already smashed Chisinau. Romania is now run by an ethnic German who knows how to count money. And in principle, they do not need any annexations or unifications. Unification is a serious subsidence in incomes, living standards of the population. Everything they need from Moldova, they already have. Romania is, by the way, a NATO country.

This is the same story as that the Poles will now take the Lviv region. If they don't, no one will let them.
Sergey Markov, Putin’s close adviser and political scientist, continues spreading Romania disinformation via a Facebook post earlier today.
“A military attack on Transnistria should begin in the near future. The Romanian army is already deployed in Moldova. Group expansion is underway. Soon there will be military provocations and then an attack. Romania with the support of NATO and with the participation of the Ukrainian army plans to seize Transnestria and carry out mass political repression against all supporters of Russia. This will put Russia in a very difficult position. After the military operation, Romania plans an enshlus in Moldova.”
Markov’s statement came shortly after a series of explosions that targeted the Ministry of State Security building in Tiraspol, Transnistrian. From RIA Novosti “As a result of the incident, windows were broken in neighboring buildings. No casualties have been reported. Eyewitnesses report that next to the building are several objects that look like tubes from grenade launchers.” Of course Russian correspondent from Russian state media outlet Ria Novosti was on the scene to capture it all.
Weeks before the start of Russia’s war they orchestrated a series of attacks to provide a pretext for their invasion due to the “dire situation” in Eastern Ukraine. Of course, it was Russian intelligence operatives who were committing all the attacks in Donbas. It feels like Russia is setting up a similar scenario with Transnistria.
Another interesting thing happened hours after the initial explosions in Tiraspol. Reports began circulating on Russian social media of another series of explostion in the city of Parcani. These social media posts were reporting this 2nd attack citing Russian media reports. I checked all Russian media outlets and couldn’t find a thing on this incident.
My final thoughts on this.

Breaking news over the weekend reported Russia’s “new” objectives in Ukraine, which include gaining full control of southern and eastern Ukraine. It really isn’t new because this has been Russia’s military strategy for over a decade and what they attempted to achieve during the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. One of the main reasons is to control the ports and have significant presence in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Gaining control over Moldova plays into this strategy and why we must pay close attention.
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 14:35
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Originally Posted by Rory57
Plenty of options for destroying the function of the Kerch bridge without blocking sea passage.

Look even further afield, there are at least 3 places where the rail and the road cross each other. There are places where the road and rail are parallel for extended distances. Any railway embankment or bridge can be used to cut the lines. One of the convoys could have an "accident" on the causeway.
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 15:03
  #4738 (permalink)  
 
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Does the shipping lanes go either side of the island or just one? If you take out the bridge, is dropping a span better or dropping the support which will be stronger but a longer job to repair and in effect take out two spans.?

The Russians are training for when the bridge gets taken out.

https://twitter.com/NullGeneration/status/1517933122544975874

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 26th Apr 2022 at 15:52.
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Old 26th Apr 2022, 15:28
  #4739 (permalink)  
 
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These guys called earlier for heavy equipment. Hopefully the Gepards, T72's, 155mm howitzers and such get there very very soon. They wouldn't mind for some more CAS either.

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Old 26th Apr 2022, 15:42
  #4740 (permalink)  
 
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