Is Ukraine about to have a war?
It seems a lot of Russian upper echelon are disappearing...
https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/n...eared-from?s=r
Or
https://defense-update.com/20110124_...on_subsys.html
https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/n...eared-from?s=r
Or
https://defense-update.com/20110124_...on_subsys.html
Last edited by T28B; 26th Apr 2022 at 17:17. Reason: WOFTAM
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From TASS https://tass.com/world/1443525:
"Moscow hopes Transnistria won’t be drawn into Russia-Ukraine conflict — senior diplomat
On April 26, the authorities declared heightened terror alert after a series of attacks committed on Transnistrian territory
MOSCOW, April 26. /TASS/. Moscow hopes that Transnistria will not be drawn into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko told reporters on Tuesday.
"Let us wait for the end of the investigation. We would like to avoid this scenario," the senior Russian diplomat said, responding to a question about Moscow’s actions, if Transnistria was drawn into the conflict.
"Let us wait for the results of the investigation and what is behind these developments. This is either terrorism or a provocation or hooliganism. The latter is the least possible explanation," he said.
The authorities of the self-proclaimed Transnistrian republic declared heightened terror alert on Tuesday after a series of attacks committed on Transnistrian territory.
On April 26, unidentified assailants blew up two antennae of the regional radio center in the community of Mayak of the Grigoriopol district in Transnistria. On Monday, the building of the Transnistrian State Security Ministry in Tiraspol was shelled from hand-held grenade launchers. No one was injured in both cases. In March, the Transnistrian security services received anonymous reports of mass bomb threats at schools, healthcare institutions, trading centers and other facilities."
The troop losses are fatalities, not including injuries. You armor/cav guys would have a better idea of injury rates for crew/dismounts from these systems getting knocked out, but my estimates are around 1'5-2:1 for injuries to fatalities. Can't imagine Putin getting Xmas cards from the troops this year.
The MBT losses are bad, getting up towards 30%, the BMP/BTRs are shocking, that's between 9-10 guys in each full complement if they were manned. The fatality rate seems to have reduced, markedly, last look the losses were tracking within about 5% of the expected losses for the material loss, now, even reducing the fatality rates still gives a much higher expected fatalities to that presented. At the same as earlier reports before this second offensive, the expected losses would be over 48,400, even reducing those accounting for greater caution gives an expected fatality number of 33,500.... there looks like underreporting of fatalities, or a lot of empty vehicles getting hit. Those don't include injuries. They are getting mauled for what they have achieved, and can always go home and avoid the unpleasantness and 5-year out-of-date rat packs.
I'm thinking that carousel ammo supply for autoloaders is bad for your health, and is going to make buyers of these designs start to think of alternatives.
The MBT losses are bad, getting up towards 30%, the BMP/BTRs are shocking, that's between 9-10 guys in each full complement if they were manned. The fatality rate seems to have reduced, markedly, last look the losses were tracking within about 5% of the expected losses for the material loss, now, even reducing the fatality rates still gives a much higher expected fatalities to that presented. At the same as earlier reports before this second offensive, the expected losses would be over 48,400, even reducing those accounting for greater caution gives an expected fatality number of 33,500.... there looks like underreporting of fatalities, or a lot of empty vehicles getting hit. Those don't include injuries. They are getting mauled for what they have achieved, and can always go home and avoid the unpleasantness and 5-year out-of-date rat packs.
I'm thinking that carousel ammo supply for autoloaders is bad for your health, and is going to make buyers of these designs start to think of alternatives.
The troop losses are fatalities, not including injuries. You armor/cav guys would have a better idea of injury rates for crew/dismounts from these systems getting knocked out, but my estimates are around 1'5-2:1 for injuries to fatalities. Can't imagine Putin getting Xmas cards from the troops this year.
The MBT losses are bad, getting up towards 30%, the BMP/BTRs are shocking, that's between 9-10 guys in each full complement if they were manned. The fatality rate seems to have reduced, markedly, last look the losses were tracking within about 5% of the expected losses for the material loss, now, even reducing the fatality rates still gives a much higher expected fatalities to that presented. At the same as earlier reports before this second offensive, the expected losses would be over 48,400, even reducing those accounting for greater caution gives an expected fatality number of 33,500.... there looks like underreporting of fatalities, or a lot of empty vehicles getting hit. Those don't include injuries. They are getting mauled for what they have achieved, and can always go home and avoid the unpleasantness and 5-year out-of-date rat packs.
I'm thinking that carousel ammo supply for autoloaders is bad for your health, and is going to make buyers of these designs start to think of alternatives.
The MBT losses are bad, getting up towards 30%, the BMP/BTRs are shocking, that's between 9-10 guys in each full complement if they were manned. The fatality rate seems to have reduced, markedly, last look the losses were tracking within about 5% of the expected losses for the material loss, now, even reducing the fatality rates still gives a much higher expected fatalities to that presented. At the same as earlier reports before this second offensive, the expected losses would be over 48,400, even reducing those accounting for greater caution gives an expected fatality number of 33,500.... there looks like underreporting of fatalities, or a lot of empty vehicles getting hit. Those don't include injuries. They are getting mauled for what they have achieved, and can always go home and avoid the unpleasantness and 5-year out-of-date rat packs.
I'm thinking that carousel ammo supply for autoloaders is bad for your health, and is going to make buyers of these designs start to think of alternatives.
Last edited by langleybaston; 26th Apr 2022 at 19:59. Reason: clarity
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a death is [at worst] easily buried or cremated. And dead men tell no tales
When will people learn how to keep their fool mouths shut?!
'US helped Ukraine in shooting down Russian plane carrying troops' (msn.com)
Sometimes it is best to leave that in doubt.
'US helped Ukraine in shooting down Russian plane carrying troops' (msn.com)
The US reportedly provided Ukraine with intelligence used to shoot down a Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war.
The US reportedly provided detailed information on when and where Russian bombs and missiles would strike. In addition, US intelligence on where and when Russian missiles and bombs were set to hit allowed Ukraine to move its aircrafts out of the strike path, current and former US officials told NBC News on Tuesday.The real-time information assisted Ukraine in pushing back on the Russian attack on a key airport near the capital of Kyiv. US officials said the intelligence sharing was massive and unprecedented for a country that is not a Nato partner.
The US reportedly provided detailed information on when and where Russian bombs and missiles would strike. In addition, US intelligence on where and when Russian missiles and bombs were set to hit allowed Ukraine to move its aircrafts out of the strike path, current and former US officials told NBC News on Tuesday.The real-time information assisted Ukraine in pushing back on the Russian attack on a key airport near the capital of Kyiv. US officials said the intelligence sharing was massive and unprecedented for a country that is not a Nato partner.
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Re Germany sending Gepards to Ukraine, the Swiss are now apparently applying their veto to prevent Swiss made ammo from being transferred from Germany to Ukraine 
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...craft-vehicles
I just do not get it, after all the Ukrainians are just the middle men, Russia is the end destination of it hopefully, seriously though, how can you make a living selling arms and ammunition from a supposedly “neutral” country and then veto who they can sell, give or indeed fire it at. Who the hell would buy it under those terms.
The cynic in me does wonder if Germany deliberately picked a weapons system they knew they couldn’t deliver to show they were going to deliver “ heavy weapons” fully aware that Switzerland would veto it, thus allowing Germany a get out clause and the ability to blame the Swiss whilst showing the West they were “complying” with the requests to do more.
.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...craft-vehicles
I just do not get it, after all the Ukrainians are just the middle men, Russia is the end destination of it hopefully, seriously though, how can you make a living selling arms and ammunition from a supposedly “neutral” country and then veto who they can sell, give or indeed fire it at. Who the hell would buy it under those terms.
The cynic in me does wonder if Germany deliberately picked a weapons system they knew they couldn’t deliver to show they were going to deliver “ heavy weapons” fully aware that Switzerland would veto it, thus allowing Germany a get out clause and the ability to blame the Swiss whilst showing the West they were “complying” with the requests to do more.
.
Last edited by NutLoose; 27th Apr 2022 at 01:41.
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Last edited by NutLoose; 27th Apr 2022 at 01:43.
- BTG structures are based on mechanised troops for the bulk of the forces. A single-vehicle kill has a high risk of fatalities vs injuries from cookoff and fires, apart from the shock/fire/kinetic effects of the munition causing the vehicle kill.
- Red force observed casualty care in the field from drones seems to be to leave the injured to their fate. There is less evidence of attempts to care for wounded compatriots to get to first aid.
- No evidence of dust-off or casevac operations by Red force.
Ukraine is more likely to have a 3:1 or higher injury to fatality ratio, they are taking care of casualties, and are conducting a lot of small unit interdiction or fighting from prepared defenses. They are also conducting casevac of their injuries.
Red forces exhibit very low morale, and presumably, that isolates the individual to personal survival needs rather than working for collective care.
https://www.hotnews.ro/stiri-razboi_...at-rachete.htm
With photos, video.
Russia (?) blows up the Zatoka road/rail bridge over the Dniester estuary between Odesa and Romania. A very dangerous move, on the face of it, just asking for trouble.
With photos, video.
Russia (?) blows up the Zatoka road/rail bridge over the Dniester estuary between Odesa and Romania. A very dangerous move, on the face of it, just asking for trouble.
Last edited by jolihokistix; 27th Apr 2022 at 02:20.
how can you make a living selling arms and ammunition from a supposedly “neutral” country and then veto who they can sell, give or indeed fire it at. Who the hell would buy it under those terms.
Disarmament Champion Cleaning Up Own Act : Stung by New Image as Gunrunner, Sweden Tightens Weapons-Export Laws - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)
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Russia to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria from Wednesday, hence they are weaponising it, odd as the map shows the flow goes through Romania to Bulgaria, so I do not know how that works,
.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-europe
.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-europe
Russia will cut off the gas to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday in a major escalation in the standoff between Moscow and Europe over energy supplies and the war in Ukraine.
Moscow is making good on a threat to halt gas flows to countries that refuse President Vladimir Putin’s new demand to pay for the fuel in rubles. The European Union has rejected the move in principle but now payment deadlines are starting to fall due, governments across Europe need to decide whether to accept Putin’s terms or lose crucial supplies -- and face the prospect of energy rationing.
European gas prices surged as much as 17% as traders calculated the risk of other European countries being hit next.
Moscow is making good on a threat to halt gas flows to countries that refuse President Vladimir Putin’s new demand to pay for the fuel in rubles. The European Union has rejected the move in principle but now payment deadlines are starting to fall due, governments across Europe need to decide whether to accept Putin’s terms or lose crucial supplies -- and face the prospect of energy rationing.
European gas prices surged as much as 17% as traders calculated the risk of other European countries being hit next.
Time to lay in stocks of firewood for cooking.
Step by step one gets to Roman times.
Step by step one gets to Roman times.
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Does the shipping lanes go either side of the island or just one? If you take out the bridge, is dropping a span better or dropping the support which will be stronger but a longer job to repair and in effect take out two spans.?
The Russians are training for when the bridge gets taken out.
https://twitter.com/NullGeneration/status/1517933122544975874
..
The Russians are training for when the bridge gets taken out.
https://twitter.com/NullGeneration/status/1517933122544975874
..
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More explosions in Russia near Oktyabrskoye in the Belgorod region.
Ukraine taking the war to Russias depots and supply lines?
https://twitter.com/search?q=Oktyabr...ed_query&f=top
now being reported as an ammunition depot
https://twitter.com/OSINT88
it seems an airbase is also under attack in Russia and the air defences are active.
..https://twitter.com/search?q=Voronez...ed_query&f=top
.I don’t know what to make of this, but who would test a Rocket engine in the middle of Moscow?
..
Ukraine taking the war to Russias depots and supply lines?
https://twitter.com/search?q=Oktyabr...ed_query&f=top
now being reported as an ammunition depot
https://twitter.com/OSINT88
it seems an airbase is also under attack in Russia and the air defences are active.
..https://twitter.com/search?q=Voronez...ed_query&f=top
.I don’t know what to make of this, but who would test a Rocket engine in the middle of Moscow?
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 27th Apr 2022 at 09:57.
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More explosions in Russia near Oktyabrskoye in the Belgorod region.
Ukraine taking the war to Russias depots and supply lines?
https://twitter.com/search?q=Oktyabr...ed_query&f=top
now being reported as an ammunition depot
https://twitter.com/OSINT88
it seems an airbase is also under attack in Russia and the air defences are active.
https://twitter.com/FLgator727/statu...53828339269632
..https://twitter.com/search?q=Voronez...ed_query&f=top
.I don’t know what to make of this, but who would test a Rocket engine in the middle of Moscow?
https://twitter.com/FLgator727/statu...53828339269632
..
Ukraine taking the war to Russias depots and supply lines?
https://twitter.com/search?q=Oktyabr...ed_query&f=top
now being reported as an ammunition depot
https://twitter.com/OSINT88
it seems an airbase is also under attack in Russia and the air defences are active.
https://twitter.com/FLgator727/statu...53828339269632
..https://twitter.com/search?q=Voronez...ed_query&f=top
.I don’t know what to make of this, but who would test a Rocket engine in the middle of Moscow?
https://twitter.com/FLgator727/statu...53828339269632
..
Voronezh Malshevo Airbase is a major airbase for this war. If Ukraine has hit it - it’s a huge deal.
More explosions in Russia near Oktyabrskoye in the Belgorod region.
Ukraine taking the war to Russias depots and supply lines?
https://twitter.com/search?q=Oktyabr...ed_query&f=top
now being reported as an ammunition depot
https://twitter.com/OSINT88
it seems an airbase is also under attack in Russia and the air defences are active.
https://twitter.com/FLgator727/statu...53828339269632
..https://twitter.com/search?q=Voronez...ed_query&f=top
.I don’t know what to make of this, but who would test a Rocket engine in the middle of Moscow?
https://twitter.com/FLgator727/statu...53828339269632
..
Ukraine taking the war to Russias depots and supply lines?
https://twitter.com/search?q=Oktyabr...ed_query&f=top
now being reported as an ammunition depot
https://twitter.com/OSINT88
it seems an airbase is also under attack in Russia and the air defences are active.
https://twitter.com/FLgator727/statu...53828339269632
..https://twitter.com/search?q=Voronez...ed_query&f=top
.I don’t know what to make of this, but who would test a Rocket engine in the middle of Moscow?
https://twitter.com/FLgator727/statu...53828339269632
..
Video of the SAM response does suggest that it was a drone taken out. Probably not a quadcopter...
Last edited by fdr; 27th Apr 2022 at 05:40.
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Later edit: It seems this is one of the rare situations when the Russian authorities might have been telling the truth. A lot of old photos here, they confirm it is indeed a rocket engine test facility:
https://lana-sator.livejournal.com/160176.html
Including a schematic of the engine test benches:
Last edited by MikeSnow; 27th Apr 2022 at 05:27.