Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

https://www.hotnews.ro/stiri-razboi_...at-rachete.htm
With photos, video.
Russia (?) blows up the Zatoka road/rail bridge over the Dniester estuary between Odesa and Romania. A very dangerous move, on the face of it, just asking for trouble.

Not unexpected, and either a fit of pique or it suggests an attempt to set up for an attack on Odessa. Now, how do you get around an impenetrable 12' fence? (that was the ultimate solution to the "Mexican" problem... ) Like fighting Daleks, going upstairs is an option... “This is an [insert to taste] , surrounded by water. Big water. Ocean water,” to repeat the immortal words of 45.

The USSR had a similar issue back in '41-'42 at a little town called Stalingrad. I seem to recall they found a way to work around the problem. Interestingly, Stalingrad, now Volgagrad has some beautiful lines of communication passing over the Volga. They are nice, pretty bridges. Bridges are great, they don't move much, in fact they kind of move at the same pace as the turf underneath. Just upstream is another beautiful bridge at Saratov. Now, at 600kms, the URA missiles are just a wee bit shy of range, but someone around here has a simple field mod for cruise missiles, apparently adds about... enough to "reach out and touch someone..." out around those bridges. Seems only fair.

On Kerch, the rationale eludes me as to why a defender (who happens to actually legally own the territory to the west of the midpoint of the passage) would not want to block the waterway. Particularly after the Ukraine-Romania link being struck. Any ships in the Sea of Azov are able to support an assault on Odessa, and I for one don't think that the Russians have a right to gate crash parties in the area.

Huff'n Puff's comments on WW-III while annoying to all indicate the bankruptcy of ideas and options that the Red team (Red nose?) find themselves in following the Wile Coyote version of the Von Schlieffen plan that was put out by the Kleptokriminocrats in Fort Fumble (the Kremlin with F-troop laagered)... If they don't like people objecting to their actions, then don't do it. 5-year-olds get to learn that, but apparently, that bit of developmental experiential learning was skipped at the KGB training courses and at F-Troop.

The actions on supplies of oil/gas to the EU is akin to holding a gun to your head and threatening to pull the trigger. Russia's behavior at present is damaging to Russia's long-term interests. Darn near 100% of their exports are based on energy, arms, and grain (and a bit of vodka). For planning purposes, those tend to be inelastic demands, and so having a reliable supplier is more important than the % of a cost in getting a reliable supplier. So, lets count the ways...

1. Russia is a reliable supplier of energy? Nup
2. Russia is a reliable supplier of arms? Nah
3. Russia is a supplier of good-quality arms? Only if you are interested in turret toss team entries... or submersible cruisers, or SU-34 carousel rides, hmm
4. Russia is a reliable supplier of grain? they are happy to be belligerent to anyone who F-Troop think is a threat to their picture-perfect kleptocracy... That is about every country on the planet that doesn't have the name Russia in their nametag. Nyet!
5. Russia is a good investment opportunity? Not on recent history.
6. Russia is an honest broker, says what it means, means what it says, speaks truth and only truth? (See Pinocchio)
7. Does Russia respect UN conventions?
8. Does Russia respect the Geneva Conventions?
9. etc.

A nuclear power that threatens nuclear war because their feelings are hurt and they are embarrassed, is the best advert for giving out nuclear weapons to little countries to even up the action. Not a desirable state of affairs, but it is the situation that the failure to take conventional response due to concerns of the thugs response ends up with the rest of the world being metaphicially "Battered Wife Syndrome" survivors. None of this is enjoyable and it is catastrophic for the neighbors of such thugs as F-Troop, but equally, there is no conceivable outcome that Russia is not catastrophically damaged by their continued prosecution of a war of lunacy. In contrast, a ceasefire and return to internationally accepted borders restores the future for Russia, and removes the global risk that F-Troop represents. Time for Russia to be removed from the UNSC or to have their veto curtailed. How that has not happened to this date is a damned disgrace. The UN Charter is pretty darn clear on the obligations and expectations of signatories, and yet various countries shirk their responsibilities, and that adds risk to everyone else.