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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 20th Feb 2023, 17:28
  #14761 (permalink)  
 
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Very sad story

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/20/w...war-death.html

A very good article from the NY Times on the personal cost of the war.
Typically you can read a few article a month for free.
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Old 20th Feb 2023, 18:14
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Originally Posted by Pali
Strange thing he speaks Russian without even slightest Ukrainian accent which is a bit unusual. Артём Коваленко sounds as a pure Russian name. But anyhow if Russians broke through defences and they were encircled and attacked from behind it is not surprising that they surrendered. Seems like green inexperienced unit to me.
Can’t comment on the accent but your other points ring true. They’re soldiers not Kamikaze pilots.
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Old 20th Feb 2023, 18:42
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I just wondered if Romania would come to Moldovas aid and put troops as peace keepers in the country at Moldovas request if the trouble is caused by "civilian dissenters," that then changes the whole format.
You do realise Romania is in NATO? Not only that, but there is a large multinational NATO presence based in Romania. I can speak for Constanta and say there are CH-47s, Black Hawks, Eurofighters, F-18s and more. Plus a shed load of Yanks in the pub!
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Old 20th Feb 2023, 19:51
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Originally Posted by Pali
Strange thing he speaks Russian without even slightest Ukrainian accent which is a bit unusual. Артём Коваленко sounds as a pure Russian name. But anyhow if Russians broke through defences and they were encircled and attacked from behind it is not surprising that they surrendered. Seems like green inexperienced unit to me.
What did the people who made this video want it to achieve? I think we can probably guess. To what extent do we think they are compelled to portray the truth? Are there any reporters or other neutral people there to check? Do we think the man himself is who he says and is under no influence?

It would be childish of us to pay any attention to it IMO.
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Old 20th Feb 2023, 20:15
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Originally Posted by 212man
You do realise Romania is in NATO? Not only that, but there is a large multinational NATO presence based in Romania. I can speak for Constanta and say there are CH-47s, Black Hawks, Eurofighters, F-18s and more. Plus a shed load of Yanks in the pub!
Some things never change.

Interesting perspective about how the war has gone and also about "When is the time to introduce Ukraine F-16's?" and his observation is "not yet." He understands combined arms warfare. Starts at about 2:50.

https://www.skynews.com.au/insights-...454d1d06a3f478
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Old 20th Feb 2023, 23:01
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Further RAF Aircraft for Ukaf?

further western aircraft* I see more headlines on sky with previous prime-ministers asking to give Raf jets. not sure weather to laugh, shout or cry....or think the impossible. we all know f16s make sense.
But ok, politics... if the tranche 1s are to be binned anyway, why the **** not start training them on them. if they (boris/truss) saying it, we cant be that crazy thinking/considering it.
The Italians are (reportedly) offering Tornado and AMX....INTERESTING to think how these would fare. amx rather,
Germans have all the tonka spares and existing fleet. Their is a force to be wielded just, time, politics, and guts needed.

If we did commit the tranche 1s then im guessing they are old enough to not risk much on off chance of a loss, seeing as they are about to be retired and 30 year old tec.
but they could be a good statement for EURO-fighters "brand" and pilots trained on a typhoon can then go onto further marks. germany/spain/italy have tranche 1s also i guess.
We seem only ones wana scrap them first, well let them fly.

Last edited by MJ89; 21st Feb 2023 at 02:06.
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Old 20th Feb 2023, 23:02
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Didn't one of the Scottish Islands recently lose their internet link shortly after a Russian "trawler" had passed by?

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Old 20th Feb 2023, 23:05
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​​​​​Interesting perspective about how the war has gone and also about "When is the time to introduce Ukraine F-16's?" and his observation is "not yet." He understands combined arms warfare. Starts at about 2:50.

https://www.skynews.com.au/insights-...454d1d06a3f478
Interesting perspective yes, but the obvious difference between Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine is that the later conflict is not a civil war. Moreover the parallels between Russia's imperialism by invading Ukraine and the described US Vietnam intervention as described are at least as clear.
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Old 20th Feb 2023, 23:24
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Originally Posted by alfalpha
Interesting perspective yes, but the obvious difference between Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine is that the later conflict is not a civil war.
As seen from our PoV, I concur. I was more focused, for this forum and this discussion, on what he had to say about "what they need, really" (ammo, training, etc) and the "each aircraft you send up there also has EW and other support" ... the 'macro' issue is more or less JB fodder, but it's hard to get TV people to not delve into that realm of the war / politics interface.
Note that this was an Australia-based TV show.
Moreover the parallels between Russia's imperialism by invading Ukraine and the described US Vietnam intervention as described are at least as clear.
Tenuous, check a map.
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Old 20th Feb 2023, 23:43
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Apologies, I wasn't very clear, I was referring to the text article by Professor Siracusa which the link took me to.
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 07:06
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Few hours until putins address speech, sure hope its uneventfully anticlimactic(just in case), guessing a declaration of general war. But its in the hours after the tv channels go back to that panel show and bear nets active the plans become clear. lot of the usual twitter ripples on the anniversary dates, seems to be more hype than normal.
Belarus's entry however forced would make quite the shit hitting the fan show. Who knows how many Russians are in Belarus, trains arrive trains leave. could the do an Italy and switch sides.

Last edited by MJ89; 21st Feb 2023 at 08:20.
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 08:18
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 10:41
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Originally Posted by 212man
You do realise Romania is in NATO? Not only that, but there is a large multinational NATO presence based in Romania. I can speak for Constanta and say there are CH-47s, Black Hawks, Eurofighters, F-18s and more. Plus a shed load of Yanks in the pub!
Yes of course i do, hence I said independent Peace Keepers simply to back up the Modovan services if requested.

If we did commit the tranche 1s then im guessing they are old enough to not risk much on off chance of a loss, seeing as they are about to be retired and 30 year old tec.
but they could be a good statement for EURO-fighters "brand" and pilots trained on a typhoon can then go onto further marks. germany/spain/italy have tranche 1s also i guess.
We seem only ones wana scrap them first, well let them fly.
I believe it was stated that only after the war. ( and then they may be Tranch 1, ugraded Tranch 1 or even new builds and passing on our older jets.. who knows.)


Last edited by NutLoose; 21st Feb 2023 at 10:54.
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 11:29
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Are the skies over Ukraine a remotely benign environment for any air defence aircraft, F-16 or otherwise? If not, what is the point of offering them just to have them confined to low level ops or dodging SAMs?
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 11:44
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Re Belarus:

"As the whole world watches Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine, the Kremlin is quietly absorbing neighboring Belarus into its orbit. Russia’s encroachment on Belarus may, however, be the result of a meticulously composed plan. A group of European and U.S. media outlets, including the Kyiv Independent, has obtained a 17-page document allegedly detailing Russia’s plans to subjugate Belarus and dismantle its independence. "

https://kyivindependent.com/investig...elarus-by-2030
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 11:57
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If that is true then it will only be a matter of time before Ukraine is defeated. And that will be because support from the west was too little (way too little) and too late! By the end of this year Ukraine and Belarus will be Russian. The west had better start massive spending on their own defense before they're too late on that count too. I believe that we failed Ukraine and we in time will pay the price! No, I'm not a military person (nor a troll), but simply stating how I see it. It frightens me!
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 12:23
  #14777 (permalink)  
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Few hours until putins address speech, sure hope its uneventfully anticlimactic
We’ll you got your wish, that was underwhelming….
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 12:27
  #14778 (permalink)  
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Exclusive: a consortium of international investigative journalists including @holger_r and myself have obtained the Russian Presidential Administration’s strategy document for Vladimir Putin’s takeover of Belarus by 2030.

​​​​​​​https://t.co/hE6thFAzkl
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 12:50
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Originally Posted by FUMR
If that is true then it will only be a matter of time before Ukraine is defeated. And that will be because support from the west was too little (way too little) and too late! By the end of this year Ukraine and Belarus will be Russian. The west had better start massive spending on their own defense before they're too late on that count too. I believe that we failed Ukraine and we in time will pay the price! No, I'm not a military person (nor a troll), but simply stating how I see it. It frightens me!
Disinformation is designed to frighten the opposition in to making a mistake. I'm not military either but even I can see this is a bluff.
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Old 21st Feb 2023, 12:53
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Originally Posted by FUMR
If that is true then it will only be a matter of time before Ukraine is defeated. And that will be because support from the west was too little (way too little) and too late! By the end of this year Ukraine and Belarus will be Russian. The west had better start massive spending on their own defense before they're too late on that count too. I believe that we failed Ukraine and we in time will pay the price! No, I'm not a military person (nor a troll), but simply stating how I see it. It frightens me!
Well, since you've stated no military knowledge, and you can have no insight into the forces available on either side, how do you reach this decision which is at odds with the current development of the war, and totally ignores the absolutely overwhelming superiority of the forces supporting Ukraine ? The point you make in many of your posts of slow and inadequate arms-delivery, I half-agree with, but this is such an uncertain and novel experience for Western politicians, that I can't tale it amiss that they have been making slow moves, awaiting results, before taking the next step.
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