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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 08:49
  #4561 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...raine-00026970

Mystery drone: How the Air Force fast-tracked a new weapon for Ukraine

…..The Phoenix Ghost “is a different type of aircraft, it’s a one-way aircraft that is effective against medium armored ground targets,” said retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and member of the Aevex board.

The drone can take off vertically, fly for six-plus hours searching for or tracking a target, and operate at night using its infrared sensors, Deptula said. Phoenix Ghost has a longer loitering capability than the Switchblade, which can fly for less than an hour, he said.
Weapons like these sound all well and good, but how would/could they differentiate between say a Russian grad launcher and Ukrainian grad launcher? Can they be geofenced so that they only search a specified area, and woe betide any blue forces which stray into this area?

I also read that Switchblade will simply fall to the ground if it doesn't find a target i.e. doesn't self-destruct or attempt to return to the launch point for re-use, which I believe the likes of Harop do (a much bigger and more expensive system, admittedly).
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 08:56
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“We’re learning a lot what Russia has been investing their money in, the sophistication and the reliability of their equipment, and.. their ability to execute that mission in a synchronized fashion,” he said.
LOL. He's being too polite. So basically what he's saying is that they've spent next-to-nothing (at least on the kit - they've got a couple of lovely yachts though), what they have is cr*p and is unreliable, and their dimwit conscripts can't operate it when it does work.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 09:00
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Weapons like these sound all well and good, but how would/could they differentiate between say a Russian grad launcher and Ukrainian grad launcher? Can they be geofenced so that they only search a specified area, and woe betide any blue forces which stray into this area?
My understanding is that they are remotely operated, not autonomous. The identification and and selection of targets is still the responsibility of the operator, just as with the other weapons that they are using.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 09:10
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Vlad seems to be having some need of OH&S work on fire safety.
1. First he sets fire to RFS Ronson, which is untidy, and ends up with a scum ring around the bath that is the Black Sea. Untidy.
2. Then his dudes in Tver bunsen burn the shed down that was the aerospace R&D facility. Adding more CO2 emissions and soot to the NW of Moscow.
3. Then someone drops their cigarette into their Vodka at Russia's biggest chemical plant, the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant self-immolated.

Is it rat season? Are the rats around the Kremmin getting hungry and chewing on tasty electrical wiring? Perhaps, a good OH&S audit is in order, I suggest ISO18001:2007 or ISO45001:2018. It may be that the Kremmin is still using the ISO 18001:1812 "overture" version which is about 2 centuries out of date, like most fire extinguishers in Russia, and most concepts of civilisation.

Never mind, as long as Russia is setting fire to itself, it at least shares some irritation about on the home front, much as Putin has to innocent people of Ukraine.

Drinking and smoking is bad, Don't smoke in bed. Don't invade your neighbor's turf. If these concepts are too complex to comprehend, are there any adults available to do an intervention session?

SAFETY ALERT: STOP INVADING YOUR NEIGHBORS



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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 09:11
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Originally Posted by Recc
My understanding is that they are remotely operated, not autonomous. The identification and and selection of targets is still the responsibility of the operator, just as with the other weapons that they are using.
Wikis suggests the Switchblade 600 can operate in autonomous mode, albeit without elaborating exactly what that means.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 09:15
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And they’ll only be used in a target rich environment - so even if a HVA can’t be identified, they’ll be an tank, tanker or IFV around.



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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 09:24
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Originally Posted by Recc
My understanding is that they are remotely operated, not autonomous. The identification and and selection of targets is still the responsibility of the operator, just as with the other weapons that they are using.
If the kit is the same on both sides and no Z is visible, then go back to basics. Which way is it pointing? At the good guys equals bad and vice versa.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 09:27
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Looks busy this morning with Swedish Gulfstream up and down Poland's eastern border, USAF Rivet Joint and NATO Sentry both on Moldova's western border, tankers on station as usual.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 09:57
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From a UKR source.

The Russian war’s new “official” goals:
.
1. Full control of Donbas
2. A land connection between Russia and Crimea
3. Full control of Southern Ukraine and a land access to the Transnistria (where “Russian-speaking population is being oppressed”)
Code red for Moldova 🚨
Also code red for Odessa. But I don’t think thry have the troops to get to Odessa, though they currently hold the bridges to get their.

Taking Odessa would solve their supply line problems - but taking it could make Mariupol look like a cakewalk…
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 10:29
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Also code red for Odessa. But I don’t think thry have the troops to get to Odessa, though they currently hold the bridges to get their.
Which bridges? Not Mikoleiv.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 10:45
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Originally Posted by ORAC
From a UKR source.



Also code red for Odessa. But I don’t think thry have the troops to get to Odessa, though they currently hold the bridges to get their.

Taking Odessa would solve their supply line problems - but taking it could make Mariupol look like a cakewalk…
The Russians don't have the troops to keep Crimea anymore, let alone take Odessa. Ukraine isn't going to bend over in front of an attack on Odessa, and that has to come from the east along the coast. Odessa is the remaining port for Ukraine, they cannot afford to let that fall into Russian hands.

The Russians may retain part of Donbas, but their actions so far don't get high marks for effectiveness. They are pretty good at destroying their own troops, and they are well versed in killing civilians.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 11:20
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Some are convinced his motto is “It’s now or never” and with the continued blessing of Patriarch Killer he will push across regardless to join up with Moldova. That might explain the fresh red activity at the western tip of the Russian land grab, even as all eyes are on the Donbas.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 11:30
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Is this hinting at a shift in policy, on the BBC this morning

West cannot watch passively as Putin's 'onslaught' continues - Johnson

Johnson tells the news conference in New Delhi that the "extraordinary fortitude and success" of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the country's people in resisting Russia's forces means that the UK is able to make the move.

He pays tribute to the UK diplomats who remained elsewhere in the region.

"The UK and our allies will not watch passively as Vladimir Putin continues this onslaught," he says.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 11:42
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A million THOTS screamed in terror

The platform #OnlyFans, on which users post erotic content for a paid subscription, suspended #Russian accounts.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 11:45
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The Russian war’s new “official” goals:
.
1. Full control of Donbas
2. A land connection between Russia and Crimea
3. Full control of Southern Ukraine and a land access to the Transnistria (where “Russian-speaking population is being oppressed”)
Won't that leave a very long exposed flank with nowhere to retreat to except the sea?
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 11:49
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Is this hinting at a shift in policy, on the BBC this morning
I think it means we have still have some government surplus left to get rid of. Perhaps they found some more Saxons round the back of the shed.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 11:53
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Won't that leave a very long exposed flank with nowhere to retreat to except the sea?
That's fine; Ukraine don't have a functioning navy, so the Russian naval forces can act with impunity.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 11:59
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General consensus is that Russia's latest statement is wishful thinking in the extreme, primarily for domestic consumption. Also a view that it is intended to leave the door open for future action is they fail to achieve these aims in the next weeks and months (as if Ukraine is just going to stand by and let them settle, esp given the veritable tsumani of military aid now heading their way).
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 12:03
  #4579 (permalink)  
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Erkki Tuomioja the Deputy-Chairmen of the Finnish Foreign Affairs Committee reportedly told the Swedish Parliament today that Finland will Submit its Proposal to join NATO in the next 2 weeks.
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Old 22nd Apr 2022, 12:12
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Originally Posted by Bksmithca
Sorry looks like a media joyride with the gpro on the wingtip. Did see any signs of combat either ground or air.
It is a media joyride, published in 2012, and combat free.

My comment wasn't about Russian multi-crew rationale, or even to support that the aircraft in question was a Su-25, but rather just to point out that two parachutes don't rule out a Frogfoot.
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