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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:02
  #2761 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
This isn't good
Is any of that "artillery", as mentioned in the post?

Looks like BMP-3s and MT-LBs. NLAWs and Javelins have been making mincemeat of them so far

Originally Posted by dead_pan
Talking of logistics, I reckon military logisticians the world over are smugly watching the footage of Russia's chaotic efforts and telling their colleagues "See, we told you it was important". No more taking the p*ss out of them.
Yep.

"PONTI are we? Enjoy your walk."
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:05
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Originally Posted by Pali
It seems like if Russian army is running out of trucks...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCo...now_moving_in/
To be fair, they are probably better maintained and the driver is less likely to poke a hole in the tank of his own truck and do a runner.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:07
  #2763 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
This isn't good
Those are airborne armour, There are at least 2S9 Nona's, BTR-MD's and BMD-4M's, all built for airborne assaults.

One would make a wild quess that Russia is planning an airborne assault in a couple of days if that is really from today from Gomel, Belarus as the Pribytki Air Base is just south of Gomel.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:10
  #2764 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Those are airborne armour, There are at least 2S9 Nona's, BTR-MD's and BMD-4M's, all built for airborne assaults.
My vehicle recognition skills are still poor I see.

Well, I knew they were Russian at least.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:20
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The question is do we impose a no fly zone now and get dragged in to a war. Or stay on the side lines for now and engage in a crash re-armament program as we did in 1938. To buy time before what I think may sadly be a inevitable war. For if Putin wins in Ukraine he wont stop their.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:30
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker
My vehicle recognition skills are still poor I see.

Well, I knew they were Russian at least.
Don't worry, those are even more vulnerable to NLAW's, LAWs et al. As they are airborne units they are also light weight. Less weight equals less armor, and those really aren't latest greatest composite as those are Soviet era. The NONA is also amphibious so it really has all the ingredients of a disaster. Eg. imagine all the seals on it supposed to prevent it from drowning, are those original? If so, I'd rather go to a gunfight with a knife than sit on one of those. With a knife I'd have a chance.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:41
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Yes, but as I've tried to point out, it may not actually be the fighters that UKR government is most interested in getting, and that may be their method of pulling NATO across the red line of intervention.
I think they are fighting for survival not for geopolitical advantage. This fight is not as a theoretical matter for them as it might be for us.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:44
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Originally Posted by scr1
The question is do we impose a no fly zone now and get dragged in to a war. Or stay on the side lines for now and engage in a crash re-armament program as we did in 1938. To buy time before what I think may sadly be a inevitable war. For if Putin wins in Ukraine he wont stop their.
Not much point in a crash re-armament programme, the moment we challenge Putin militarily, he will have no choice but to go nuclear. He is not going to fix the problems with his conventional forces and equipment in the foreseeable future.

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Old 8th Mar 2022, 16:46
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Originally Posted by scr1
The question is do we impose a no fly zone now and get dragged in to a war. Or stay on the side lines for now and engage in a crash re-armament program as we did in 1938. To buy time before what I think may sadly be a inevitable war. For if Putin wins in Ukraine he wont stop their.
No, we should not get dragged into a war. We should decide unemotionally what is worth fighting for and what isn’t. I do think it’s possible that our involvement is inevitable and should do so when we have the greatest chance of success.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 17:18
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The Jerusalem Post seems to think Zelenskyy may be close to caving into Putin's demands. Also that Russian Forces are deliberately holding back from fullscale assault.

'"Three days after Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the details are beginning to emerge. According to people who were privy to details about the meeting, the current situation is that Russia has offered a "final" version of its offer to end the crisis, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needs to accept or decline.

The proposal was deemed "difficult" but not "impossible," the sources said. It is worse than what Zelensky would have gotten before the invasion but "the gaps between the sides are not great."

Putin ordered his forces to halt – and the command for a ceasefire to be enacted was given – in order to wait for Zelensky's decision, the sources said."'
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-700677

To be honest I have thought the increasingly strident calls for intervention by NATO indicated a last ditch attempt to stave off what is the inevitable choice of capitulation without external military asssitance. However, he might go from hero to zero as others may still want to resist if supplies keep coming. I think like many, my gut says we should intervene but my head says the risk is too great. Although I hate to agree with la Truss, NATO should have intervened before a shot was fired - the consequences of Putin fired up by achieving his aims, and portraying to countries outside the western liberal democratic clique how he faced them down, may lead to an outcome the reverse of what we expect.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 17:18
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Originally Posted by scr1
For if Putin wins in Ukraine he wont stop their.
I would have thought that the mauling he has received in a small-scale offensive -irrespective of if/how he wins - would rock him back on his heels and put all other adventures on ice for a long time ( beyond his rule ). That ignores the need to replace the losses with a hugely reduced budget. Even if the Chinese do buy oil/gas, I bet they will get a very good price as "buyer of last resort ".
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 17:18
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As distressing as these scenes are, Russia is being emasculated on the battlefield, domestically and internationally. For the time being we should keep doing what we're doing and hope some sense soon prevails in Moscow.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 17:28
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
No, we should not get dragged into a war. We should decide unemotionally what is worth fighting for and what isn’t. I do think it’s possible that our involvement is inevitable and should do so when we have the greatest chance of success.
We failed to back Czechoslovakia But did stand up for Poland. what if we had stood up to Hitler when he marched in to the Rhineland or Austria. Yet again the west has woken up to late to a dictator who has ambitions to create a empire. We knew it would be difficult in 1939 yet we still stood up.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 17:47
  #2774 (permalink)  
 
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https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/276192


Another one bites the Ukrainian dust
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 17:54
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Looks legit from the Polish Government link.

https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/sta...nes-to-ukraine

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Old 8th Mar 2022, 18:00
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I'd say confirmed as published in PL gov't webpage:

The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America

https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/sta...nes-to-ukraine
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 18:14
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Jerusalem Post, or Zelenskyy. My money is on the Ukrainian.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 18:15
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Originally Posted by scr1
We failed to back Czechoslovakia But did stand up for Poland. what if we had stood up to Hitler when he marched in to the Rhineland or Austria. Yet again the west has woken up to late to a dictator who has ambitions to create a empire. We knew it would be difficult in 1939 yet we still stood up.
It would probably have been all over in two weeks if we had not had the time given us by the "piece of paper" to rebuild just enough of a defensive capability

...unless of course a Hawker Hart really could take on a 109
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 18:22
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Originally Posted by Beamr
I'd say confirmed as published in PL gov't webpage:

The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America

https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/sta...nes-to-ukraine
Statement also says The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.. Quick wiki search seems to show that no other NATO ally still deploys the MiG 29..
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 18:24
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Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo
Statement also says The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.. Quick wiki search seems to show that no other NATO ally still deploys the MiG 29..
Bulgaria has 13 in service.
oh, and Slovakia has 11.
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