Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Wikiposts
Search
Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 7th Feb 2023, 13:52
  #14361 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Often in Jersey, but mainly in the past.
Age: 79
Posts: 7,812
Received 137 Likes on 64 Posts
Originally Posted by langleybaston
I disagree ........... its not a football game with scores.
If anywhere near true, that Russ daily figure implies about 5000 hors de combat.
I tend to disagree, LB. The numerical balance remains in Russia’s favour, and despite their military “skills” will remain so. I have always been concerned about attrition of Ukrainian personnel: they do not have the population to sustain massive losses. Of course we will never know what the relevant ratio is, nor should we. But the numbers in that table do indicate the intensity of the ground conflict. I feel for the poor sods on the ground on both sides (Wagner PMC exempt!).
MPN11 is online now  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 14:10
  #14362 (permalink)  

Only half a speed-brake
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Commuting not home
Age: 46
Posts: 4,321
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
That's the thing. The numbers are suggesting Mordor is rolling in. Not a clear indication they are running out of steam.

When was the last time we heard of a sucess in reclaiming some of the land back? Ugly qestions. With much apologies, the Kherson collapse was unavoidable given the geography and layout. Yet after months the downtown is in range of phosphorus shells.

The ongoing decoruptinization led by Zelensky office, as much as it is needed, will dissolve some of the unity bonds.
FlightDetent is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 14:23
  #14363 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Baston
Posts: 3,287
Received 718 Likes on 252 Posts
Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I think that figure is taken to mean globally :dead, seriously wounded and captured>
My 5000 figure is a crude trade-up from my assumption that losses in the list = killed.

Of course we should worry about Ukr ability to tolerate grievous losses, having a substantially smaller pool of person-power. There is however the imponderable/ unquantifiable aspect of "fighting for your country in your country" and with many of the Ukr forces with private losses to avenge. How that translates to evening-up is a matter of conjecture.

As an ignoranrt armchair general, I toy with the idea of advising Ukr to do a Gallipoli-style 10 mile withdrawal, to make that 10 miles a killing zone. The problem here is political, comparable to the holding of the Ypres salient and Verdun: where so many lives lost made it sacred ground. As I am not high up in defence [not even the tea-trolly lady] please don't tip off Putin.
langleybaston is offline  
The following users liked this post:
Old 7th Feb 2023, 14:30
  #14364 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 17,452
Received 1,611 Likes on 737 Posts
ROFL….

Russia has handed the US embassy in Moscow a note demanding it stop interfering in Russia's internal affairs - TASS
ORAC is online now  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 14:58
  #14365 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 64
Posts: 7,228
Received 417 Likes on 260 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
Yes I made the decision to post “war porn” as you succinctly put it, but with caveats warning people and avoiding linking it directly so it wouldn’t automatically display in the thread
Indeed, well done, and I thanked you for making that an "opt in" choice.
As with the naked child with napalm burns running down a Vietnam road or the soldier executed by pistol shot on the streets of Saigon or the burnt corpse in the truck as the Iraqi’s fled Kuwait, these have to be seen to show the world that War isn’t the A Team where they spray machine gun fire and no one gets killed, but it is horrific and brutal and is not the sanitised rubbish you see on mainstream TV.
Not sure why you feel that it is necessary to preach to the Choir on the Military Aviation Forum.
The sooner mankind wakes up to the fact that we are the only species on this planet that kills for “sport / fun” and recognises war in its bestial form gets you exactly nowhere, then perhaps we will learn from it and adapt.
Again, on this forum you are preaching to the choir. Maybe it's a good idea to know your audience.
If I have offended I apologise
No offense taken, Nutty. I shared in Uncle Fred's thread on JB (back around the time this war started) the emotionally charged encounter I had with the wife of a friend who lives nearby who he met in Ukraine.
She is from Ukraine.
As the war began and the topic came up she went off about what a load of our President and our government are for letting it happen, not immediately rushing to Ukraine's aid, and so on. Can't say as I blame her for her reaction. Her homeland was, and still is, being wrecked. Something like 5 to 7 million Ukrainian people are displaced/refugees, and many thousands are dead thanks to this war.
(I am also related through marriage to another man who lives within a half our from our house, whose wife is from Ukraine, but whose father (hers) identifies as Russian...another earful from a different direction from each of them on separate occasions ...)
ETA: Correction, UNHCR has 8 million as the refugees from Ukraine thanks to war.

I could do without the emotionally charged tone that you so often present on this forum: but we each have our own tastes and preferences: you do you.
Originally Posted by ORAC
Russia has handed the US embassy in Moscow a note demanding it stop interfering in Russia's internal affairs - TASS
How droll.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 7th Feb 2023 at 16:45.
Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 15:53
  #14366 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,068
Received 2,939 Likes on 1,252 Posts
I ask you, do these look like the actions of a Country that believe they can win this war outright and it's not going to be brought home to them?




https://twitter.com/aNdr0iz/status/1603406969871781888

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 7th Feb 2023 at 16:05.
NutLoose is online now  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 16:01
  #14367 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,707
Received 349 Likes on 119 Posts
Apparently the Z-team has new commander called General Melchett aided by captain Darling.


Beamr is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 20:07
  #14368 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Rhone-Alpes
Posts: 1,174
Received 284 Likes on 159 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
I ask you, do these look like the actions of a Country that believe they can win this war outright and it's not going to be brought home to them?
..
I don't really have any in-depth knowledge of how Russian propaganda developed during WW2 , Nutty, but I don't ever have the impression that it was noted for its fine-tuning to actual events, and I certainly don't believe it has evolved since then.
Tartiflette Fan is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 21:28
  #14369 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Herefordshire
Posts: 777
Received 588 Likes on 210 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
I ask you, do these look like the actions of a Country that believe they can win this war outright and it's not going to be brought home to them?..
Even supposing they do eventually force a level of success that would allow them to claim 'mission accomplished', do they imagine the West would just forgive and forget after the horror show they've caused?
Video Mixdown is online now  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 21:33
  #14370 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Baston
Posts: 3,287
Received 718 Likes on 252 Posts
Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
Even supposing they do eventually force a level of success that would allow them to claim 'mission accomplished', do they imagine the West would just forgive and forget after the horror show they've caused?
It is possible that Russia might "win the war" whatever that means. I pray not.

However, if the free world has any virtue remaining, Russia has already lost the peace for at least two generations.


langleybaston is offline  
Old 7th Feb 2023, 22:51
  #14371 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 17,452
Received 1,611 Likes on 737 Posts
Russia continues to devolve into fiefdoms under the control of companies and warlords….

​​​​​​​⚡️Ukraine’s intelligence: Russian Gazprom to create its own private military company.

Russian state-owned energy monopolist Gazprom is creating its own private military company, Ukraine's military intelligence said on Feb. 7, citing the decree signed by Russian PM Mishustin.
ORAC is online now  
Old 8th Feb 2023, 05:50
  #14372 (permalink)  
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
Posts: 481
Likes: 0
Received 12 Likes on 10 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
The manufacture of artillery shells, I am surprised how simple and low tech the stencilling is compared to the rest of they system, and also the packing.



https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...C4pdSR9oQtAAAA
We always think in terms of a countries resources but what are the raw resource levels for the West?
In other words how much metal can the Earth provide (and the West has access to) for a full blown war?
uxb99 is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2023, 06:12
  #14373 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,962
Received 150 Likes on 90 Posts
While we are having fun with hypotheticals, the traditional word for oxymoron/paradox/conflict/conundrum/contraditction/antilogy in the east is 矛盾, (maodun in Chinese, mujun in Japanese), the pictograms for spear and shield. If Putin wields a spear, and Ukraine holds a shield, which will prevail?

Putin is approaching with weapons. Is Putin a truly irresistible force? Can Uraine truly be an immovable object?

The answer will lie in the ability of one to overpower the other, or the inability of one to match the other. Putin must be thinking of his own blackbelt.

Last edited by jolihokistix; 8th Feb 2023 at 09:15.
jolihokistix is online now  
Old 8th Feb 2023, 08:09
  #14374 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: England
Posts: 29
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 2 Posts
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will arrive in the UK today, in his first visit since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year.

Downing Street said he would be holding meetings with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and make a speech in Parliament.

No 10 has also announced that British training of Ukrainian forces will be expanded to cover fighter jet pilots and marines.

It's also expected the UK will announce fresh sanctions targeting Russia later.

Plans have been announced to train Ukrainian pilots to fly Nato-standard fighter jets in the future, a key request from Ukraine.

President Zelensky addressed MPs in March last year, speaking virtually from Kyiv, the first time a foreign leader addressed MPs in the Commons chamber
mikeoneflying is offline  
The following users liked this post:
Old 8th Feb 2023, 08:42
  #14375 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 17,452
Received 1,611 Likes on 737 Posts
Reference the above.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/p...ssian-invasion

PM extends Ukraine military training to pilots and marines as President Zelenskyy makes first visit to the UK since Russian invasion
ORAC is online now  
Old 8th Feb 2023, 09:26
  #14376 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2021
Location: EHEH
Posts: 534
Received 249 Likes on 78 Posts
According to the media, Bakhmut is very close to be taken by the Russians. To me that translates as a major failure not of the Ukraine but of the west. All that hesitation is now costing the Ukrainians dearly. Our western leaders sicken me and I have no longer have any trust in them whatsoever.
FUMR is online now  
The following 2 users liked this post by FUMR:
Old 8th Feb 2023, 09:43
  #14377 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,079
Received 66 Likes on 40 Posts
It is not that easy supporting Ukraine when you try to avoid sliding into WW3 facing some irrational opponent in Moscow at the same time. This war will not end soon and will have more ups and downs.
Less Hair is online now  
The following users liked this post:
Old 8th Feb 2023, 09:48
  #14378 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Scotland
Posts: 832
Received 98 Likes on 51 Posts
Originally Posted by ORAC
Reference the above.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/p...ssian-invasion

PM extends Ukraine military training to pilots
How on earth are we going to do that?
Timelord is offline  
Old 8th Feb 2023, 09:50
  #14379 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2021
Location: EHEH
Posts: 534
Received 249 Likes on 78 Posts
Originally Posted by Less Hair
It is not that easy supporting Ukraine when you try to avoid sliding into WW3 facing some irrational opponent in Moscow at the same time. This war will not end soon and will have more ups and downs.
Which is what that "irrational" opponent is calculating on. He considers the west weak and we're proving him right!
FUMR is online now  
Old 8th Feb 2023, 09:56
  #14380 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: aus
Posts: 1,317
Likes: 0
Received 111 Likes on 69 Posts
Originally Posted by Timelord
How on earth are we going to do that?
Yep first thought as well, maybe they are training already experience pilots for the EF Tranche 1 Block 5 that they are retiring in the next few years

Maybe they are just the front country for someone elses aircraft ie RAAF F-18's, French Mirage 2000 or dutch F-16

So many option so little details
rattman is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.