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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 17th Mar 2022, 16:10
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One other question is...... What is their range, and is it sufficent to travel the 10.000 miles without refuelling or have they tanker support for them, a lot of countries will not touch them.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 16:17
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
That was a passage, but not breaking any blockade, which was implemented Feb 28th AFAIK
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 16:21
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That’s why I said ‘pre-ban’ for the early Feb passage. Pressure then built up on Turkey to stop passages by warships. (Unless returning to home port?)
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 16:53
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It depends if the Egyptians will let them pass through the canal too, as they have been fence sitting of late and are worried about their wheat.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 17:00
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It depends if the Egyptians will let them pass through the canal too, as they have been fence sitting of late and are worried about their wheat.
And going via the Cape is 80% further.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 17:16
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I am puzzled by what exactly this extract from Nutty's link - https://cepa.org/the-next-10-days-will-decide-this-war/ - means

" Their public call for 16,000 troops from Syria and elsewhere indicates this. Employment of “stop loss” by Russia on conscripts whose time is about up is another indicator. The Ukrainian diaspora is flocking home to help the fight; Russians are not coming back home — and indeed, many are leaving to avoid Putin’s fight.There is now an opportunity to exacerbate their manpower problem.  The next intake of conscripts into the Russian Army is on April 1, when around 130,000 Russian families are required to send their sons (18-25) to Conscription Centers where they will be inducted into the Russian Army as privates."

Is he implying the current "class" of conscripts will be retained ( stop-loss ? ) ? Whilst from a "warm bodies " point of view " the Army might currently wish to do so, where would they get all the equipment/training personnel etc ?

On the other hand, if they let these many thousand ( unsure how many in Ukraine ) conscripts who have fought in Ukraine go home, they become tens of thousands of completely believable eye-witnesses who return home and tell everyone what is happening. Wouldn't this represent an explosion of emotion/protest that would be much greater than has been seen so far ? Obviously many family members of the new class of conscripts would be extremely vocal about not wanting their sons to go to "Putin's war ".

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Old 17th Mar 2022, 17:46
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
their range, and is it sufficient to travel the 10.000 miles without refuelling
Notwithstanding the timing issues that are odd, India will be forced to be friendly.

This is not bad for the West, otherwise India on the UA side antagonizes PRC to side with RUS more.

Fortunately, there is already a little vibe about PRC doing the right thing.

​​​

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Old 17th Mar 2022, 18:17
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Pasta's question re LST performance is answered in Navalnews:
Operational range is around 3500 nautical miles with 16 knots.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 18:24
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Originally Posted by Geriaviator
Pasta's question re LST performance is answered in Navalnews:
Ouch! So that's 26 days via Suez (if non-stop) with 2-4 RAS refuellings, and not allowing for all the other delaying factors. Makes no sense to me, I reckon they're just going to offload whatever they have at Vladivostok and send it on by train/air.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 18:34
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Su 25 being shot down, it says Ukrainian, but difficult to tell who's it is.



update


Dramatic footage of a UA Su-25 crash near #Kherson on Feb 26th. During this incident, the Ukrainian Air Force lost two aircraft at once. One of them was a Su-25M1K "19 blue". Based on this video, the second one was most likely a Su-25M1 "30 blue".




Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Mar 2022 at 21:59.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 19:17
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Maybe not the right place to post, but it is related to the War and if it gets to the Russian people it 'could' make a difference to the populations ideas of what is really going on.

A powerful msg from Arnold Schwarzenegger.

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Old 17th Mar 2022, 19:44
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...
Pasta's question re LST performance is answered in Navalnews:
Quote:
Operational range is around 3500 nautical miles with 16 knots.
Should just about get them to Pearl in ten days ..........

LFH
...
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 20:12
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Re 4 x Tank landing ships. Possible scenarios.
1. Destination Odesa. Run the Bosporus blockade somehow at night. (Three went through pre-ban at the beginning of February.)
2. Feint. They’ll cross east around south of Japan and back up the east coast to the Kuriles or Vlad.
3. Sale agreed to China who desperately need such craft for certain plans of their own. Perhaps Russia had been saying no, but the situation has changed?
4. Other.
Sorry but there's b*gger all chance they'll attempt to transit the Bosphorous without the Turk's say-so.

Regardless of their destination, whatever they have on board is hardly going to be a game changer.

To me this smacks once again of Russian desperation, their various forces being urged to "do something" and justify their existence.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 21:07
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Suspected Mig 29 belly landed in a field.

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Old 17th Mar 2022, 21:49
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Russian KA-52 MI-28 helicopters tactics , “toss bombing” to extend their rocket ranges.

https://theaviationist.com/2022/03/1...ckets-ukraine/


Russian KA-52 & MI-28 attack helicopters firing rockets in an unconventional way. By firing upwards they greatly extend their range but will have terrible accuracy. #Ukraine#Russia#UkraineWar

.

Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Mar 2022 at 22:04.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 22:19
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Couple of hours ago, spotters on Twitter noting unusual movements of Russian nuclear command and control aircraft near Omsk and Novosibirsk.
I wonder if we'll see more veiled threats about nuclear weapons shortly.
Russia has an avowed strategy of escalating to de-escalate.

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Old 17th Mar 2022, 22:26
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more

Flight twitter observing some strange aircraft movements in Russia: - multiple Russian Military Special Flight Squadron planes leaving Moscow for Ural Mountains (this is where RUS nuclearcommand is) - exodus of private jets from Moscow to Dubai what do the oligarchs know…


What's going on here? -RuAF Tupolev Tu-204-300 RSD3 -RuAF Sukhoi Superjet 100-95B RSD71 -RuAF A319-115CJ RSD72 -RuAF An-148-100E RSD73 -RuAF Ilyushin Il-96-300PU RSD74 -RuAF Tupolev Tu-214PU RSD78 -RuAF Tupolev Tu-214SR RSD79 -RuAF SuperJet 100-95B RSD80

https://aviationsourcenews.com/news/...out-of-moscow/
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 22:40
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Hmmm somethings going on?


Mass transfer of helicopters from #Belarus to #Russia airbase Sescha among this path. Identified: 4 Ka-52s, 4-Mi28s (1st group) 5(+1 witness didn't notice type) Mi-8s (2nd group) we also know of 2 more that have flown to Secha It's not clear if this is bc of a lack of helicopters
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 22:58
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Nutty I think you have to dial things back a notch
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 23:04
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Just wondered if there is a depleted uranium risk in the Russian tanks which have been destroyed?
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