Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[NutLoose]

No hiding the losses from the Russian public now, they are having to ship wounded to as far afield as St Petersburg.

Twitter

Interesting article. It seems a heck of a way to instruct anyone, fly them across the world and back

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...uences/629541/

If the Soviet Union could deploy thousands of advisers to North Vietnam in the middle of the Vietnam War without triggering a nuclear conflict, the U.S. can deploy advisers to western Ukraine, or at least to Poland, to train Ukrainian soldiers. Instead, we ship Ukrainian troops to Biloxi, Mississippi, to learn how to operate the Switchblade drone, where their congratulations come from the secretary of defense on a Zoom call from his Pentagon desk. It would be better if he were draping his arm about their shoulders in some muddy field a lot closer to their homeland.

[t43562]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Seen that the guy was repeatedly elected, he clearly has a Ukrainian constituency. In war however, that no longer counts.
Ukraine is being purged of its Russian component, exactly what caused Putin to intervene directly. Only his actions ensure that the purge will be much more comprehensive.

I don't think it's at all evident from the facts that Ukraine is being purged of any Russian component - Odesa is almost completely Russian speaking for example I believe. My ex-colleagues in Ukraine are all Russian speakers and very nationalistic and pro-Ukraine. The situation is complicated but getting simpler, IMO.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

No hiding the losses from the Russian public now, they are having to ship wounded to as far afield as St Petersburg.

Interesting article. It seems a heck of a way to instruct anyone, fly them across the world and back

Has Peskov made another, more revelatory , statement, or does this tweet refer back to the one where he spoke of 1 000 or 1 500 casualties ?

Perhaps there are simulators at Biloxi that they don't want to move.

[Geriaviator]

Brilliant and incisive article from TheAtlantic, Nutty, thank you for this and for your steady flow of info.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Selensky refuses visit by the German President* - Frank-Walter Steinmeier - following on from his visit to Poland.

Selensky refused to receive FWS because he said that he had been too close to the Russians in his official positions ( he was German Foreign Minister 2005 to 2009 and again from 2013 to 2017 ). I'm unsure how to view that: it was his job to have good relations with them, it's not as if he went on holiday with Lavrov;

Possibly political manoeuvring by Selensky to get a visit by Bundeskanzler Scholz who has been reticent about arms-deliveries, preferring to leave it up to Brussels to co-ordinate matters. Selensky obviously believing that once he got him on the spot he would be able to manage the scenario and put Scholz under pressure to do a lot more.

* This is a purely representational role for a "retired" high-level politician ( "well-loved " is always better)

[Fitter2]

Regarding Medvedchuk arrest

Seen that the guy was repeatedly elected, he clearly has a Ukrainian constituency. In war however, that no longer counts.
Ukraine is being purged of its Russian component, exactly what caused Putin to intervene directly. Only his actions ensure that the purge will be much more comprehensive.

In a healthy democracy, anyone is entitled to stand, and even the most extreme views in any direction can attract support. However, when your country is invaded by your neighbour who razes towns to the ground, and rapes youg girls and murders your citizens in cold blood, then merely arresting one of your own countrymenn who supports the invasion and is the designated head of a puppet government once all the legitimate governamr are put before a firing squad, then arrest is a fairly mild action.

[PPRuNe Towers]

Post 4285 further up this page provided by Timmy gives a particularly effective analysis - especially of the reality the Ukranian military are having to face and succeed in versus Putin's problems.

Rob

[Lonewolf_50]

And as they leave or withdraw,

they leave little presents behind

.

[beardy]

Originally Posted by PPRuNe Towers

Post 4285 further up this page provided by Timmy gives a particularly effective analysis - especially of the reality the Ukranian military are having to face and succeed in versus Putin's problems.

Rob

I concur. Most importantly whoever succeeds Putin must be capable of generating sufficient confidence in their constituency to be able to persuade them that this was 'Putin's' war and a mistake otherwise the resentment, tension and latent hostility toward Ukraine will continue to fester leading to a delayed and maybe better prepared round two.

[RatherBeFlying]

Will the United States Run Out of Javelins Before Russia Runs Out of Tanks?

Somewhat US centric, but does include contributions from other countries.

Stocks are running down and production may take several months to ramp up.

Interestingly the article links to an estimate of RF combat losses at 40,000 ≈ 25% of invasion force @ March 31 when estimated WIA unable to return to combat are added to KIA.

The elite units are largely depleted. The replacements will likely be much less effective.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying

Will the United States Run Out of Javelins Before Russia Runs Out of Tanks?

Somewhat US centric, but does include contributions from other countries.

Stocks are running down and production may take several months to ramp up..

Supply numbers have focussed heavily on US and UK, but Scandinavian countries have supplied several thousand anti-tank missiles. So far Germany has supplied very few, as an initial planned delivery of old DDR Strela missiles was 70% scrap and there have been no numbers for the Panzerfaust3. France has supplied no war equipment at all: whether it could be pressured to do so if supplies really ran low is up for debate.

In such a situation, would it be military doctrine to move supplies of something like anti-tank missiles from front to front as the enemy redeployed, or once delivered to Kiev, would they stay there ? The great unknown , of course, is how many missiles are being used per kill. What we see is, naturally, the " he shoots...and he kills !!!" variant, but are there 10 misses we never see ? On the figures quoted in this article, and others, it seems that Ukraine has probably received close to 25 000 missiles, so one would hope that they still have plenty left.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

The great unknown , of course, is how many missiles are being used per kill. What we see is, naturally, the " he shoots...and he kills !!!" variant, but are there 10 misses we never see ? On the figures quoted in this article, and others, it seems that Ukraine has probably received close to 25 000 missiles, so one would hope that they still have plenty left.

Not only that, there's a fair amount of evidence that some of these weapons being used against soft-skinned vehicles. Bit of overkill TBH, unless of course that's the only appropriate weapon they have to hand

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Not only that, there's a fair amount of evidence that some of these weapons being used against soft-skinned vehicles. Bit of overkill TBH, unless of course that's the only appropriate weapon they have to hand

Well since many of these will be fired from ambush, the soldiers will be carrying what they think they need and, presumably, will always take ATGM in the hope that a T 72 crosses their path: if it then turns out to be a truck with a squad inside, they might well use the ATGM if there aren't enough of them with automatic weapons;

[Tartiflette Fan]

1 500 Russian dead in Dnipro

"Ukrainische Behörden: Leichen von 1500 russischen Soldaten in Dnipro bis heute nicht abgeholt"

From the German magzine focus, a report of 1 500 Russian corpses awaiting collection in mortuaries in Dnipro. From memory these bodies have been there some time and there are other towns holding corpses in refrigerated trucks. I can't see the Russian army being very keen to do anything about this, but if it becomes public knowledge back home, then could cause a huge outcry.

[Wokkafans]

Biden Administration to Provide Ukraine More Intelligence, Heavier Weapons to Fight Russia -The moves will enable Ukraine to target Moscow’s forces in Donbas and Crimea and counter an anticipated Russian offensive (subscription required):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-exp...d=hp_lead_pos7

[RatherBeFlying]

Well since many of these will be fired from ambush, the soldiers will be carrying what they think they need and, presumably, will always take ATGM in the hope that a T 72 crosses their path: if it then turns out to be a truck with a squad inside, they might well use the ATGM if there aren't enough of them with automatic weapons;

Having seen one video where soldiers promptly dismounted from an APC and organized a defense after a tank was taken out, it may be wiser to target APCs before tanks. The tank crew may then decide to abandon the tank which can then be added to the UKR inventory.

RF senior officer losses seem to have abated, perhaps because they are pulling back and regrouping.

Hopefully UKR will be well supplied wherever RF makes its next push.

[NutLoose]

It appears some of the Marines are or have attempted to break out of Mariupol while others broke through to join the remaining troops who have decided to stay and fight on… brave men and women, let’s hope it’s not the Ukrainian Alamo.

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-pol...-fight-on.html

[fitliker]

PARIS (AP) — French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen warned Wednesday against sending any more weapons to Ukraine, and called for a rapprochement between NATO and Russia once Moscow’s war in Ukraine winds down.

Le Pen, an outspoken nationalist who has long ties to Russia, also confirmed that if she unseats President Emmanuel Macron in France’s April 24 presidential runoff, she will pull France out of NATO’s military command and dial back French support for the whole European Union.

Asked about military aid to Ukraine, Le Pen said she would continue defense and intelligence support.

“(But) I’m more reserved about direct arms deliveries. Why? Because ... the line is thin between aid and becoming a co-belligerent,” the far-right leader said, citing concerns about an “escalation of this conflict that could bring a whole number of countries into a military commitment.”

[Timmy Tomkins]

Russian data leaks

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/russia-ukraine-data

[ACW342]

Il 76 Cyprus to Sochi?

currently on FR24 RFF8654 over Black Sea heading for Sochi. Flight track shows a possible departure from a Cypriot airfield. Oligarchs bringing some valuables home? Ideas? Forte 10 seems quite interested.