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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 13th Jun 2022, 11:23
  #6281 (permalink)  
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So, did those who had finished their year get sent home or kept on ?
Kept on - to much outrage.

Latest reports, today, or that home based units are now being ordered to generate a 3rd BTG.

The norm is one and most scraped the barrel for a second. a third means taking all the remains staff and instructors plus any remains recruits - and still ending up with a unit 50% manned and with hardly any equipment.

Plus, of course, it means there is absolutely no-one to train this years recruits and nothing for them to train with.

This really sounds like the last throw of the dice.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 11:58
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Russia looking at sending "humanitarian aid" to Nicaragua in the form of missile systems that can hit US Cities... I would hate to think what they classify weapons aid as.

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Old 13th Jun 2022, 12:07
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Good to see.

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Old 13th Jun 2022, 12:14
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Kept on - to much outrage.

Latest reports, today, or that home based units are now being ordered to generate a 3rd BTG.

The norm is one and most scraped the barrel for a second. a third means taking all the remains staff and instructors plus any remains recruits - and still ending up with a unit 50% manned and with hardly any equipment.

Plus, of course, it means there is absolutely no-one to train this years recruits and nothing for them to train with.

This really sounds like the last throw of the dice.
The 3rd are going to the be the training BTG's + new contract soldiers
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 15:23
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RF is leaning heavily on its artillery which seems to be the one thing they have to their advantage. Short supply lines and so far inexhaustible inventory of shells have put UKR on its back foot.

With UKR firing at one tenth of the RF rate, NATO is falling way short in resupply.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 15:34
  #6286 (permalink)  

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I heard about a week ago it's the calibre trap. USSR 152 mm for UKR pistols are no longer in use in CEE even, and the lefomtover stocks were finite. The 'Atlantic west' could easily stone RF with 155 mm, however the defenders don't have the machienery to shoot those. Apart from the gifted sets which are very scarce given the length of the front line. And dispersed adding another logistic night mare.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 15:43
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I just hope this Ukrainian hasn't just doomed himself and his friends by thanking this American, who needs enemies when the American reporter it telling the world the guys unit, current location and movement too and when............ I wish they would think before they report stuff like this or give it a few days... Words fail me.


His reporting of the volunteers being rushed forward is frightning though.

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Old 13th Jun 2022, 16:29
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent
I heard about a week ago it's the calibre trap. USSR 152 mm for UKR pistols are no longer in use in CEE even, and the lefomtover stocks were finite. The 'Atlantic west' could easily stone RF with 155 mm, however the defenders don't have the machienery to shoot those. Apart from the gifted sets which are very scarce given the length of the front line. And dispersed adding another logistic night mare.
I was watching a video about the American M777 most modern artillery piece which said that Biden had shipped 108 guns ( of total establishment of 810 ) and 40 000 shells. There are various types of shell -some GPS/satellite-guided - which the commentator reckoned would have the same value as 10 ordinary Russian shells. Range from 25 000m to 40 000m according to shell. The M777 costs $ 4 million/pc and is being supplied on "Lend-Lease " which the commentator described as being "pay us when/if you can ". I don't know how much of that is accurate but did interest me as I have wondered how everything is being accounted for. If anybody has more definite info on that - particularly what happens when Poland (say) gives T 72 to Ukraine and is promised M1 Abrams as a replacement. The Abrams has a headline price of $ 8 million: foc to Poland, cut-price or what ?

Another video also talked about the MLRS and HIMARS multi-rocket systems which have been supplied by USA, UK, maybe NL and Canada which have the range and accuracy for counter-battery fire , as well as targeting Russian ammunition depots close to the front line. The comment here was that the arrival of these systems should require the Russians to move their supply dumps further back and complicate their re-supply efforts somewhat.

EDIT: Just found the M777 video
HIMARS

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 14th Jun 2022 at 13:32.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 16:41
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I just hope this Ukrainian hasn't just doomed himself and his friends by thanking this American, who needs enemies when the American reporter it telling the world the guys unit, current location and movement too and when............ I wish they would think before they report stuff like this or give it a few days... Words fail me.

https://twitter.com/MacWBishop/statu...42918955298816

His reporting of the volunteers being rushed forward is frightning though.

https://twitter.com/MacWBishop/statu...72660915707905
Nutty

He gave it more than two weeks . Report from "late May "but published June 12th. I also didn't read any unit identification in the report and they were all using cover-names, so certainly not blabbing sensitive stuff.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 17:13
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The soldier, whose uniform markings identify him as a member of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, is in his early twenties.
The post was 21 hrs ago., hence my concern
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 17:40
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The post was 21 hrs ago., hence my concern

But as far as I understand it was reporting events more than two weeks old. His unit identification isn't going to change, at any time but where he was two weeks ago, where's the value ............ ?

Be grateful for your response .
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 18:21
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I was assuming by the post date and his referring to tomorrow going back into the line it was current as opposed to previously posted, as I was unaware it had been, the thread reads as current if that makes sense. Mentioning a mechanised unit would possibly increase the perceived threat and hence the response, you also do not want to be giving the enemy information on your opposite units as information such as experienced or conscripts/ volunteers etc tailors your actions.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 18:24
  #6293 (permalink)  
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Poland’s Defense Minister confirmed today that Poland is on track to buy 500 Himars (MLRS) with a range of 300 km & 6 Patriot Missile Defense System batteries from the US.

He also revealed that the Polish Army will get 2 new divisions, stationed by the Vistula river.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 19:00
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Mintgomery and Zhukov were great believers in massed artillery barrages. UKR’s only chance in this scenario is to do the same to the RF, otherwise they will inevitably be ground to dust: their bravery and National pride won’t defeat massed artillery.

How quickly and efficiently their supporters can achieve this is critical. Exciting dogfights or low level rotary isn’t going to be a game-changer: that’s Tactical noise for YouTube etc. Only the thunder of the guns from UKR can swing the Strategic balance.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 19:10
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I was assuming by the post date and his referring to tomorrow going back into the line it was current as opposed to previously posted, as I was unaware it had bee.
Reading through all those threads the only definitive time statements are "I’m in eastern Ukraine in late May, in a region called Donbas," followed by the publication date of June 12th of the article.

Do you have any counter arguments ....or time to say "mea culpa" Nutty ?

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Old 13th Jun 2022, 19:22
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Poland’s Defense Minister confirmed today that Poland is on track to buy 500 Himars (MLRS) with a range of 300 km & 6 Patriot Missile Defense System batteries from the US.
That is a hell of a lot. If you believe YT videos, the current total production (since 1990 ) is only 440.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 19:24
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Originally Posted by Beamr
1. NATO will not go for Baltics if Russian forces get to occupy the land area (fast moves via Suwalki gap to close Baltics from Poland and making it next to impossible for NATO countries to support Baltics as SWE+FIN are not NATO countries (see point 3)
Highway of Death?!
2. Russia will beat NATO and it will be sold to Russian people that "Russia already won NATO in Ukraine" (remember the rhetorics that Russia is not in war with Ukraine but in essence with the US and the west)
???
There are practically no Heavy NATO Weapons (except a handful of howitzers) yet involved in the battles and this little is already causing headache to Russia.
I guess they wouldn't want to fathom going against hundreds of MLRS + PzH2000, Caesar etc. with dozens of Counter Battery Radars.
Not to mention the air strikes against their Arty.
Russia must be beaten in Ukraine. Period.
Here I don't disagree.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 19:43
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Originally Posted by MPN11
Montgomery and Zhukov were great believers in massed artillery barrages. UKR’s only chance in this scenario is to do the same to the RF, otherwise they will inevitably be ground to dust: their bravery and National pride won’t defeat massed artillery. How quickly and efficiently their supporters can achieve this is critical. Exciting dogfights or low level rotary isn’t going to be a game-changer: that’s Tactical noise for YouTube etc. Only the thunder of the guns from UKR can swing the Strategic balance.
Artillery, the King of Battle (well, that's how the US Army feels about it). (Of note, Infantry is the Queen of Battle in the same jargon). A few points from the article Nutty linked to at Rolling Stone. I was interested to read that one of the crusty old vets was concerned with how the Russians use drones in support of their artillery barrages.
Fighting here isn’t a new experience for many of the paratroopers, and they are quick to remind me that for them the war began in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and sent its soldiers into Donbas to support pro-Russian separatists. Most Ukrainians remain bitter about the relatively weak Western response to those actions, and it’s why they fear the West will once again buckle to Putin’s aggression.

Ukrainians from all walks of life have told me how concerned they are about a repeat of 2014, with the international community acceding to the Russian seizure of their land — despite the blood they are spilling to defend it.
The military here has more than doubled since Russia’s invasion in late February. More than 700,000 Ukrainians are now under arms, and perhaps only one-third of those have received anything resembling professional military training.

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Old 13th Jun 2022, 19:51
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Artillery, the King of Battle (well, that's how the US Army feels about it). (Of note, Infantry is the Queen of Battle in the same jargon). A few points from the article Nutty linked to at Rolling Stone. I was interested to read that one of the crusty old vets was concerned with how the Russians use drones in support of their artillery barrages.
Am I being particularly thick, but I see no mention of drones in that article ?

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Old 13th Jun 2022, 20:46
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
The military here has more than doubled since Russia’s invasion in late February. More than 700,000 Ukrainians are now under arms, and perhaps only one-third of those have received anything resembling professional military training.
.
Thats not correct, there are 400k veterans of the war since 2014
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