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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 11th Apr 2022, 14:46
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The problem I can forsee is ammunition as the NATO standard round is a different calibre to the ammunition the Ukrainians are using in their ex Soviet tanks, that said all of NATO should be able to supply ammunition for them.

There are various version of the Leo 1, does it say which version we are talking about the -4 an -5 are the newer models
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 14:51
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The problem I can forsee is ammunition as the NATO standard round is a different calibre to the ammunition the Ukrainians are using in their ex Soviet tanks, that said all of NATO should be able to supply ammunition for them.

There are various version of the Leo 1, does it say which version we are talking about the -4 an -5 are the newer models
It seems to be the Leopard 1A5 that's being talked talked about.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 15:10
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The problem I can forsee is ammunition as the NATO standard round is a different calibre to the ammunition the Ukrainians are using in their ex Soviet tanks, that said all of NATO should be able to supply ammunition for them.

There are various version of the Leo 1, does it say which version we are talking about the -4 an -5 are the newer models
I think the problem is more likely to be that Leo 1s use the old RO 105mm gun. It'll be interesting to see just how much 105mm APFSDS (or similar) ammo has been retained in NATO warstocks.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 15:10
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Rheinmetall ready to supply up to 50 tanks to Ukraine (Leopard 1 and Marder).
I have great respect for Rheinmetall, having been hit by one of their 20mm. ☹️

Mog

Last edited by T28B; 11th Apr 2022 at 21:26. Reason: fixed quote bracket
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 15:29
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Her argument is that these units are pledged to NATO and cannot therefore be "removed"
Seeing as they will be used to degrade NATO's principle adversary, surely there should be no reason to hold back?

How are the German public reacting to all this prevarication?
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 15:33
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Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin
I think the problem is more likely to be that Leo 1s use the old RO 105mm gun. It'll be interesting to see just how much 105mm APFSDS (or similar) ammo has been retained in NATO warstocks.
These aren't ex-Bundeswehr tanks, but ones taken in part-exchange by Rheinmetall when selling their new stuff to foreign states, so likely to be fairly old ( although, obviously, "just one careful owner" ) . A couple of articles have said that ammunition will be a problem and Brazil was mentioned as a possible supplier as their tanks use the same type.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 11th Apr 2022 at 16:02.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 15:54
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Seeing as they will be used to degrade NATO's principle adversary, surely there should be no reason to hold back?

How are the German public reacting to all this prevarication?
Strangely all the comment is by reporters and politicians and the only explicit public expression of emotion seems to have been the pro-Russia car convoys.( just displaying Russian flags, no propaganda/speeches allowed ) There were many more anti-war demonstrations at the end of February, and there continue to be much smaller ones still, but nothing happening on a national scale i.e. city-centres inundated. Also bizarrely the Green foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, is probably the most fiercely outspoken in favour of Ukraine weapon-shipments and cancelling all Russian energy supplies. The welcoming of refugees, of whom 310 000 have registered ( 84% female ) has just happened without any great fanfare Since registration is voluntary and passport checks are not being enforced, the numbers will certainly be higher:

Given Germany's generally greater sensibility to political events and readiness to get out on the streets, I find this "stillness" very strange. There has been next-to-no dissent about the proposed purchase of F 35's, an extra 100 Mrd for the Bundeswehr to make it a capable force again and the raise to 2% for future military expenditure.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 16:21
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Useful analysis of the techniques the Russians use for shooting themselves in the foot.
https://on.ft.com/3vaGhT3
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 16:34
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Whilst reading around, I came across an interesting article in the Austrian paper, Der Standard.

As a neutral country , Austria currently spends 0.7% on defence, the military want this raised to 1%.

In the 90's Austria bought used Leopard 2 A4 and has currently 56: some of these are used as spare-parts stores and the running ones have the technical level of 1980 i.e. no night-vision, weak hydraulics

15 Eurofighters with no night-fighting capability ( unsure if technical or training ) thinking about buying Tranche 1 Eurofighters from GB for spares/other material, or in the medium-term buying another plane;

It really does look like the next 10 years are going to be good for Rheinmetall, BAe, Boeing, Bayraktar et al.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 16:43
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It really does look like the next 10 years are going to be good for Rheinmetall, BAe, Boeing, Bayraktar et al.
That depends on whether the politicians have the balls to properly spank Putin and seriously degrade the threat.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 16:46
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Neutral or non-aligned, I could suggest that everyone in Greater Europe (geographically) should belatedly reconsider their position in the face of Putin’s lunacy. The cork is out if the bottle for the current “Peace in our time.”
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 17:08
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
That depends on whether the politicians have the balls to properly spank Putin and seriously degrade the threat.
Not a problem for the whole of eastern Europe, with a couple of notable and obvious exceptions, also the UK and some Scandi countries. In contrast I've seen no reports of direct military aid from the likes of France, Spain, the low countries, Italy etc. Maybe they're letting the EU do their talking?
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 17:53
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Not a problem for the whole of eastern Europe, with a couple of notable and obvious exceptions, also the UK and some Scandi countries. In contrast I've seen no reports of direct military aid from the likes of France, Spain, the low countries, Italy etc. Maybe they're letting the EU do their talking?
France - mid March E 300 million gift plus unspecified tonnage of fuel, 60 tonnes humanitarian aid to Moldova and Poland
NL - E 20 million, sniper-rifles, helmets, Manpads
Be - 3 800 tonnes fuel, 2 000 smg, 3 000 assault rifles
Italy - E 110 million gift plus unspecified military equipment
Ireland E 20 million ( noticed while searching that Ireland spends about 0.28% on defence.)+

There may be other donations, but too difficult to search everything
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 18:06
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Skua,

Excellent article you posted from FT....proves innovation and social media can be exploited to enhance Intelligence Collection.

Ukraine military and intelligence forces seem to be thinking outside the box and benefitting from that.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 18:25
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Originally Posted by SASless
Skua,

Excellent article you posted from FT....proves innovation and social media can be exploited to enhance Intelligence Collection.

Ukraine military and intelligence forces seem to be thinking outside the box and benefitting from that.
Agreed … the benefits of not being over-controlled from Moscow Centre, and permitting flexibility and initiative below Colonel level in a dynamoc scenario.

Standard Russian tactics from WW2, thanks to Zhukov. Hammer with Artillery (ground and air) and then advance, regardless of casualties. It worked in the Soviet era, but it’s a bit outdated now. Especially (in contrast to 1945) against a highly motivated, intelligent and well-led/equipped opponent. Artillery may be the King of the Battlefield, but only if the ammunition supply and personnel can get there … which seems to be a bit of a problem for RU forces.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 19:14
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Russkies are building up forces near the finnish border.
Although not quite sure why they are moving those coastal missile systems there.
Geolocated 50km from Finnish border.
https://www.google.com/maps/@60.7448...7i13312!8i6656

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Old 11th Apr 2022, 19:40
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 20:11
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 20:13
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The Russians do not want to tangle with the Finns again especially when they are getting their Butts kicked in Ukraine!

The Russians might stick to dealing with this Hornet’s Nest they stuck their head into first.
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Old 11th Apr 2022, 20:29
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The problem I can forsee is ammunition as the NATO standard round is a different calibre to the ammunition the Ukrainians are using in their ex Soviet tanks, that said all of NATO should be able to supply ammunition for them.

There are various version of the Leo 1, does it say which version we are talking about the -4 an -5 are the newer models
Apparently the plan is that the leo ones will go to western ukraine where supply lines are shorter and ukrianias can train them. This will allow the soviet / russia armor to goto the east where it will be more suitable from a training and logisitcs view

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
15 Eurofighters with no night-fighting capability ( unsure if technical or training ) thinking about buying Tranche 1 Eurofighters from GB for spares/other material, or in the medium-term buying another plane;
On another forum we had this same discussion. I suggested there 3 practical options for a ukrainian airforce in the mid term. As you suggest there tranche 1 eurofighters from UK and Swiss, the other options would be some of the 46 FA-18 sitting in hangers in australia, they could be regenerated as there was quite a few flying december of last year, got millions of miles and remote airbases you could train pilots and ground crew and no in the world would know. The other probably way more expensive but better long term is the Kuwaities were apparently looking for buyers for thier super hornets last year.
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