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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 16th Mar 2022, 20:00
  #3321 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
submarines in the Black Sea.
Let's see, who has a coast line on the Black Sea?
1. Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Moldava.
2. Who among them has submarines? Turkey, Bulgaria, Russia.
a. I don't see any submarines in the Ukrainian order of battle, guessing that was a contentious issue as CIS broke up and Ukraine became independent.
b. Romanians have a Kilo for training and appear to be building 3 for their own use, not sure on details, old Jane's article.
3. Who is going to send a submarine poking around to keep an eye on the Russians?
a. Turkey (NATO): why? What's the benefit for the risk?
b. Russia: Why spy on your own flotilla and risk a blue-on-blue?
c. Bulgarians (NATO): what's the benefit for the risk?

NATO has in general not been actively confronting the Russian forces to date.

TF, if you'd like to expand on why you think this is a good idea
(rather than a video game style wish fulfillment of 'well, we have this unit we need to put it into play!' line of thinking)
I'd be interested to hear it.
As I review the Ukranian order of battle, I do see that in Odessa there are some naval infantry formations who have rocket launched artillery, but I am not sure if those are 'smart' rockets that could shoot at moving ships at sea, or not. (Guessing Not).
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 20:01
  #3322 (permalink)  
 
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That area of the Black Sea and especially the approach to Odessa is very shallow for many miles out - we are talking no more than 20 metres depth.

Not only that but the approach to the port of Odessa is very tightly constrained by depth so no room to maneuver, shallow sandbanks, sunken obstructions, etc which is why access is limited to one or two very clearly defined in and outbound channels.

Not somewhere to be when you are expected and unwelcome. It would be a turkey shoot.

Any significant sub would equally well struggle to avoid detection.

IG.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 20:03
  #3323 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
We are providing anti ship missiles, it was announced in Feb.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/worl...v-b988444.html
I think that was medium-term. This link - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neptune_(cruise_missile) - says that Ukraine has anti-ship missiles with a range of 300 km;
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 20:06
  #3324 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50;11200928
c. Bulgarians (NATO): what's the benefit for the risk?

NATO has in general [b
not been actively confronting the Russian forces to date..
In what way would what I suggested - somewhat light-heartedly I confess - be any different from all the surveillance aircraft watching the contested airspace from NATO/international airspace ?
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 20:22
  #3325 (permalink)  
 
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Taking out tanks in Mariupol


.




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Old 16th Mar 2022, 20:31
  #3326 (permalink)  
 
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A thought - most of the oligarchs' jets are on the Luxembourg (LX) register (a few are on the Isle of Man (M) register). Given Lux is in the EU, why does the EU not pressure Lux to de-register them?
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 20:45
  #3327 (permalink)  
 
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What's interesting is that it's the 4th round that really seems to do the damage - but that's filmed from the opposite side of the road, meaning either there were two camera platforms, or just one but the tank remained in position long enough for the camera platform to get to the other side of the road between #3 and #4 . . . not surprising seeing what hits #2 and #3 probably did to it
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 20:52
  #3328 (permalink)  
 
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The Tank was already "brewing up" after 3.., 4 set off the internal stores.

IG
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 21:02
  #3329 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
What's interesting is that it's the 4th round that really seems to do the damage - but that's filmed from the opposite side of the road, meaning either there were two camera platforms, or just one but the tank remained in position long enough for the camera platform to get to the other side of the road between #3 and #4 . . . not surprising seeing what hits #2 and #3 probably did to it
I think that it is drone footage of a (presumably prepared) ambush. Most of these videos seem to have some confusing edits, which I presume are deliberate to avoid giving away positions or other useful information but it is just the drone moving position rather than fixed cameras. You can see that the 2nd hit breaks the left track which the tank then reverses off. After that it would have been immobilised. Astonishing that the Russians tried to do this without any apparent infantry support. What were they expecting to happen?
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 21:02
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There was an RAF Typhoon out of Cyprus shadowing an RAF A330 tanker over the Romania coast a couple of nights ago. No hiding there, transponder on bold as brass. A mistake or just letting the Russians know they were there? It seemed odd at the time.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 21:09
  #3331 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TURIN
There was an RAF Typhoon out of Cyprus shadowing an RAF A330 tanker over the Romania coast a couple of nights ago. No hiding there, transponder on bold as brass. A mistake or just letting the Russians know they were there? It seemed odd at the time.
Not really a secret, it's on the MoD webpage
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 21:26
  #3332 (permalink)  
 
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I suppose it makes it loud and clear who you are, better to be lit up like a beacon than be dark and seen as a possible Ukrainian threat to the Russian military, after all they can’t deny it was known who and what you are if the world can see and track you.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 21:35
  #3333 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by trim it out
Not really a secret, it's on the MoD webpage
Yes, I appreciate that but it just seemed odd that one lone RAF Typhoon was sqawking 'here I am'. I've not seen any others before or since. It was there for about 4 hrs.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 21:39
  #3334 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TURIN
Yes, I appreciate that but it just seemed odd that one lone RAF Typhoon was sqawking 'here I am'. I've not seen any others before or since. It was there for about 4 hrs.
Fair point. As they are there in a "policing" role I wouldn't have thought a squawking aircraft being too out of the ordinary if they were on an overt patrol. Possibly squawking because they were more than one aircraft too.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 22:28
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
To be fair, Putin did warn everyone that he was about pull the trigger on Ukraine.
"Give it to me, or I'll smash the place to pieces."
Who, exactly, are you being ďfairĒ to? If anything, his statement underscores his premeditation and guilt.
He has said other things over the years, mentioned in prior posts, that he has reneged on.
So only tells the truth when it, rarely, suits him. The bastard. Sadly reminds of someone else, closer to home.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 23:37
  #3336 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wunfootin
Soon the farmers will be running out of mostly Russian supplied fertilisers not to mention the strategic metals..
Not sure the Ukrainian farmers will run out of strategic metals judging by the rate they're acquiring armour plate ...
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 02:37
  #3337 (permalink)  
 
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Things just got a whole lot worse for Putin.

According to the White House, the $800 million in security assistance will provide Ukraine with: 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 100 drones, "over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds," 25,000 sets of body armor, 25,000 helmets, 100 grenade launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns, 400 shotguns, as well as "2,000 Javelin, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons, and 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems.


The US will specifically provide Switchblade drones to Ukraine, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN. The small, portable, so-called kamikaze drones carry warheads and detonate on impact. The smallest model can hit a target up to 6 miles away, according to the company that produces the drones, AeroVironment. It's unclear which model the US will send to Ukraine.The Switchblade drones were added to Ukraine's extensive list of requested military and technological assistance after Ukrainian officials consulted with congressional partners over the weekend on a draft of the list.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/politics/biden-military-assistance-ukraine/index.html


https://youtu.be/4T5Jcmh8dAk
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 04:22
  #3338 (permalink)  
 
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Ukrainian garages stripping captured APC heavy machine guns and converting them to handheld weapons so the Ukrainians can use them in defence.

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Old 17th Mar 2022, 09:37
  #3339 (permalink)  
 
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They need to be careful. You could have somebodyís eye out with one of those.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 09:54
  #3340 (permalink)  

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They need to be careful. You could have somebody’s eye out with one of those.
I think that's the general idea.
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