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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 16th Mar 2022, 02:01
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If Putin wanted to "demilitarise" Ukraine why is Russia giving them so much abandoned weaponry? He is achieving demilitarisation of Russia instead, stocks of rockets are more and more depleted, air force losses are reaching 1 billion USD etc.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 02:24
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According to CNN.

On CNN,
@SethGJones
says US officials estimate "about 6,000 to 8,000 Russian ground-force fatalities" so far. That would mean "there have been more Russian combat fatalities in just about two weeks of war in Ukraine than the US had in both Iraq and Afghanistan in 20 years."
ouch..
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 02:35
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6 Russian T80U tanks from the elite 4th Guards 'Kantemirovskaya' Tank Division stuck in the Ukrainian mud and abandoned

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Old 16th Mar 2022, 03:14
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying

On another hand, NATO is collecting vast amounts of Russian military communications, all the same time while the Ukrainians are depleting Russian armor and aircraft, along with quite a few senior officers that are no longer available for making trouble in Baltic and East Europe - for the price of several Stingers, Javelins, NLAWS, Bayraktars and other undisclosed items.

Really it's quite the bargain for NATO, even given the Putin Premium on oil and gas that will be with us for quite some time.
Not just that previous apparently unknown equipment is being exposed.

Russian Ground Forces Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles, known in the West as SS-26 Stone, have been using an apparently previously unseen decoy, in an effort to spoof Ukrainian air defenses as heavy fighting continues in the wake of the Russian invasion that began late last month. Penetration aids, or PENAIDs, of a broadly similar kind, have previously been associated with much longer-range strategic missile systems, namely intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). However, these decoy munitions now point to Russian efforts to ensure that its short-range battlefield ballistic missiles, too, are better able to defeat increasingly sophisticated anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defenses. Whatís especially surprising is that Russia has now revealed this potentially significant aspect of the Iskander-M, one that it had previously managed to keep under wraps, at least from the general public, during the conflict in Ukraine where it isnít likely even needed.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...coy-capability
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 07:15
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RatherBeFlying

I am wondering how long it will be before the magnitude of Russian losses makes it back to the home population.
I think this has been raised on here previously. Not so much the casualties (apart from PoWs), but today I was listening to a talk by a former senior Australian Defence public servant (Paul Dibb). He said he had information from 'impeccable sources' that captured conscripts are being given a phone to ring home.

He thought the information that they are (1) in Ukraine, and (2) things are not going well, will be spreading rapidly.

Unfortunately, he did not think this was likely to bring about Putin being deposed by other members of government or a 'palace coup' or there would be sufficient numbers to start a popular rebellion.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 07:29
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Here is a link to anyone who might be interested: https://iview.abc.net.au/show/nation...s-club-address

He had some very interesting things to say on what is motivating Putin and why he is not about to be turfed out anytime soon.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 07:31
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There are are reports on Oryx that a fifth Russian general has been killed, which if true is a terrible attrition rate in three weeks. The German army also had an incredible loss rate of generals towards the end of the Second World War and it seriously impacted their effectiveness. The losses seem to be brigade level commanders leading from the front. Although in the fog of this war what is the front line and who is on your side is somewhat blurred as not all Russians seem to be willing participants.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 08:54
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Originally Posted by lederhosen
There are are reports on Oryx that a fifth Russian general has been killed, which if true is a terrible attrition rate in three weeks. The German army also had an incredible loss rate of generals towards the end of the Second World War and it seriously impacted their effectiveness. The losses seem to be brigade level commanders leading from the front. Although in the fog of this war what is the front line and who is on your side is somewhat blurred as not all Russians seem to be willing participants.
As I said earlier in the thread....

Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker
I was chatting with a good friend (from childhood, who went on to serve in various parts of the British Army) earlier today over WhatsApp, who is currently 'somewhere in Ukraine'. He was always an exceptional shot (we both shot at Bisley a fair bit in our youth but he was naturally talented) and he is, once again, making use of said talent.... ​​He remarked that Russian troops seem to be obsessed with saluting their officers. Are Russian troops terrified of not paying compliments or are they 'fragging' their officers courtesy of the opposition? It may explain why the Russians keep losing senior officers....
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 09:38
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Missile crosses from top left to bottom right this morning 35 sec mark. Could be London ( just think ww2 V1s) or any modern European city skyline. History repeats itself!
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 09:43
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
6 Russian T80U tanks from the elite 4th Guards 'Kantemirovskaya' Tank Division stuck in the Ukrainian mud and abandoned
Could this be deliberate? There have been persistent rumours of Russian soldiers purposely disabling their vehicles to avoid combat.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 09:53
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well I was rubbished by some on here when I pointed out (pre-invasion) that mud would be problem for Russian tanks.....................
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 09:58
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It mudst become worse.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 10:03
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What we absolutely do not need is another outbreak of McCarthyism - you can't blame the majority of the Russian people for the actions of their 'elected' leaders.

Yes, sanction and punish those with clear links to Putin and the Kremlin as hard as possible but assuming every Russian schoolkid in UK or outside of Russia is the progeny of corrupt oligarchs and the like is just ignorant thinking.

The Russian people are not the enemy, it is those that lead them who are.

I hope the Poles have had enough and are preparing to go in regardless of the wishes of the US.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 10:20
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Blimey:
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 10:29
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Sorry, another brilliant one:
​​​​
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 11:31
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 12:00
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Some interesting discussions going on regarding the Russian flotilla in the Black Sea apparently headed to Odessa. There are rumours that the Kremlin is unhappy the Russian naval infantry have not played their part in the conflict to date and are urging their command to join the fight. Their very tentative probing along the coast suggests they're not entirely happy with their prospects, especially given the absence of meaningful air support, nor any sign of a breakthrough at Mikolaiv to link up to. Another debacle could be brewing.

(also, imagine the propaganda value were the Ukrainians to sink something like the Moskva...)
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 12:08
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Considering that the Ukrainians have just sent two SU30's to the bottom of the Black Sea in the Odessa area, albeit by SAM's, I would imagine they are not a little hesitant.

Having no top cover over landing areas is a recipe for disaster.

IG

Last edited by Imagegear; 16th Mar 2022 at 12:25.
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 12:08
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Is that flotilla in International waters? At what point does it become a legitimate target for Ukrainian forces?
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Old 16th Mar 2022, 12:11
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
What we absolutely do not need is another outbreak of McCarthyism - you can't blame the majority of the Russian people for the actions of their 'elected' leaders.

Yes, sanction and punish those with clear links to Putin and the Kremlin as hard as possible but assuming every Russian schoolkid in UK or outside of Russia is the progeny of corrupt oligarchs and the like is just ignorant thinking.

The Russian people are not the enemy, it is those that lead them who are.
.
What better way to put pressure on one's government than to ensure the wealthiest cannot do all the things money can buy.
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