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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 17th Mar 2022, 23:14
  #3381 (permalink)  
 
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Nutloose has highlighted exactly the Tweets I was talking about earlier.
The escalating to de-escalate strategy would not necessarily result in game over however - and that's the logic Russia uses.
Pre this conflict, Pentagon scenarios have reportedly modelled Russia detonating a tactical nuclear weapon in an unpopulated area in an attempt to intimidate NATO and force a backdown.
In only one of five modelled outcomes did wargamers recommend a like for like NATO retaliatory nuclear detonation.
Such a scenario presents a very challenging dilemma for NATO in gauging an appropriate response.
That's not to say the plans won't already have been prepared.

Last edited by tartare; 17th Mar 2022 at 23:32.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 00:21
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
more

Flight twitter observing some strange aircraft movements in Russia: - multiple Russian Military Special Flight Squadron planes leaving Moscow for Ural Mountains (this is where RUS nuclearcommand is) - exodus of private jets from Moscow to Dubai what do the oligarchs know…



What's going on here? -RuAF Tupolev Tu-204-300 RSD3 -RuAF Sukhoi Superjet 100-95B RSD71 -RuAF A319-115CJ RSD72 -RuAF An-148-100E RSD73 -RuAF Ilyushin Il-96-300PU RSD74 -RuAF Tupolev Tu-214PU RSD78 -RuAF Tupolev Tu-214SR RSD79 -RuAF SuperJet 100-95B RSD80
Would they broadcast their movements if it were a serious situation? Maybe a psy war operation to heighten Western concerns?
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 00:34
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I think that's exactly what they're doing.
Making quite sure the west can see that they're all heading to the Urals.
It's pure, straight up intimidation.
But I also think it's serious... it's a linear path - what's the next step?
You sit down in the subsequent meeting, discuss your options, in the full knowledge that GCHQ and the NSA are listening.
Perhaps someone is authorised to `leak' to western media the contents of some of those discussions.
Many further steps follow, before we get just one small warhead moved from a storage area, and mated to a delivery system.
I know both sides monitor each others weapons.
But would they pick up the SIGINT or ELINT of just one weapon being moved?

Last edited by tartare; 18th Mar 2022 at 00:47.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 00:57
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Are small 'tactical' weapons reliably monitored?
If reports are correct that Russia still has 5000 plus nuclear devices in service, tracking them individually would be a major task. Funding for such an effort seems unlikely to have survived during the past three decades of 'counterinsurgency' focus.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 01:41
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As far as I can see from open source material - no.
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/t...clear-weapons/
There may be classified MASINT techniques we are not aware of.
The warheads are around the size of a football.
Very easy to transport just one from the (presumably) known locations where they are stored.
You'd assume or at least hope that there'd then be some limited activation of Russian command and control infrastructure which western SIGINT would rapidly pick up.
It all seems very Tom Clancy, but also a real risk in my view that in the next 10 days or so, there will be more nuclear threats.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 05:23
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Twitter reporting BearNet active again.
More incoming Kalibrs for Kiev by the sounds of things.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 05:50
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Originally Posted by tartare
I think that's exactly what they're doing.
Making quite sure the west can see that they're all heading to the Urals.
It's pure, straight up intimidation.
But I also think it's serious... it's a linear path - what's the next step?
You sit down in the subsequent meeting, discuss your options, in the full knowledge that GCHQ and the NSA are listening.
Perhaps someone is authorised to `leak' to western media the contents of some of those discussions.
Many further steps follow, before we get just one small warhead moved from a storage area, and mated to a delivery system.
I know both sides monitor each others weapons.
But would they pick up the SIGINT or ELINT of just one weapon being moved?
If it hasn’t happened yet, the Western Allies need to “leak” an indication that severe dire (not just financial) consequences would follow Russian use of tactical nukes. No matter what Russian tactics might be. Putin is using this threat of nuclear war as an umbrella to protect his actions in Eastern Europe and the more times it works, the more we can expect him to continue, at the risk of countries beyond Ukraine. It’s time to stop this monster.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 05:51
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Good article from Forbes about the limitations of the VVS.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=74fc159d3319
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 06:04
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Detonating a nuke would be just like shouting to the World "we are no more able to fight any conventional war". Next step: either MAD, or Russia degraded to third-world status.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 06:57
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Lviv airport hit... appears to be cruise missiles.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 07:40
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About this time in a crisis, Nostradamus gets a mention - I wonder what his predictions are for the current situation - if there are none we might need the fallout shelter.

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Old 18th Mar 2022, 08:15
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I did not see this posted before , but some very frontline reporting from the BBC ( Kharkiv)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785679
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 08:31
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Evaluation of Russia by Finnish Intelligence Colonel (subtitles) | December 3, 2018

If you want to understand some rationality behind irrational Russian actions, this might help...

If you prefer dubbing over subtitles, full English audio version available here:

Last edited by JPcont; 18th Mar 2022 at 08:58.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 09:28
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I know we periodically moan about the media mis-identifying various kit (e.g. the 'army' Chinooks), but it gets on my t*ts the way they misidentify the munitions being used in this conflict. A few days ago some journo said Lviv was being shelled and today they're talking about rocket fire. They're missiles FFS!
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 09:36
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JPcomt, excellent. An hour well spent. Thank you.

Last edited by jolihokistix; 19th Mar 2022 at 11:48.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 10:00
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I know we periodically moan about the media mis-identifying various kit (e.g. the 'army' Chinooks), but it gets on my t*ts the way they misidentify the munitions being used in this conflict. A few days ago some journo said Lviv was being shelled and today they're talking about rocket fire. They're missiles FFS!
The Mirror keeps referring to the RAF guy on TV discussing the war as a General.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 11:42
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JPcont, that's the most interesting article I have seen for years, it answers many questions as to why the Russians are different to the West. Thank you for posting it and good wishes in what must be anxious times for Finland.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 12:58
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Are small 'tactical' weapons reliably monitored?
If reports are correct that Russia still has 5000 plus nuclear devices in service, tracking them individually would be a major task. Funding for such an effort seems unlikely to have survived during the past three decades of 'counterinsurgency' focus.
How accurate are those numbers likely to be? Apparently Russia has (or rather, had) approximately 12,400 tanks. Yet we've not only seen Russian forces using some decidedly dated variants but we have also seen overall incredibly poor serviceability of even their more modern vehicles.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 13:20
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Originally Posted by JPcont
If you want to understand some rationality behind irrational Russian actions, this might help.
Thanks for that link, gave reasons for stuff I already had some ideas about, like the strong leader mentality.Of course China works in very much the same way.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 13:27
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Russia's claims to how the destruction is from their point of view..

Demilitarization of Ukraine in numbers * Currently destroyed: - more than 90% of military airports, as well as anti-aircraft missile systems; - 72.4% of the Air Force; - 62.3% of tanks and armored vehicles; - 51.4% and 39.7% artillery and MLRS, respectively.




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