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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 3rd Mar 2022, 21:04
  #2321 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed, the stupid thing is since the cold war and the peace that ensued NATO had continued to decline in strength, something that was one of Putins goals, since his actions he has reversed that in a significant way. He has brought a new sense of purpose to it and a regeneration in its future strength.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 21:05
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Originally Posted by admikar
FFS, have you never negotiated in your life?
I think the word you are searching for is "ultimatum" - the antithesis of negotiation.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 21:23
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The nuclear weapons in Ukraine question was settled in Budapest in 1994, when in exchange for surrendering physical control of the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world and acceding to the non-proliferation treaty Russia , the UK, and the US commited to respect the independence, sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine; confirmed their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force, or economic coercion to subordinate Ukraine's exercise of sovereign rights to their own interest.

By his reaction to the Euromaidan including fostering of separatism in Yanukovych supporting Oblasts and occupation of Ukrainian territory in Crimea in 2014 Putin tore up the agreement. Prolonging violient separatism was a way of indefinitely postponing the chance of NATO accepting Ukraine's wish to join.

I do wonder if his plan is to create the previously threatened South-East Ukrainian Autonomous Republic as that's where he is having success and appears to be using better forces and that the action in northern central Ukraine is a brutal diversion and he declare peace and withdraw from those areas once he has consolidated his puppet state in the relevant oblasts and separating the Western leaning ones from the sea.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 21:40
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Originally Posted by SLXOwft
I do wonder if his plan is to create the previously threatened South-East Ukrainian Autonomous Republic as that's where he is having success and appears to be using better forces and that the action in northern central Ukraine is a brutal diversion and he declare peace and withdraw from those areas once he has consolidated his puppet state in the relevant oblasts and separating the Western leaning ones from the sea.
It was my impression, for the past few years, that Putin has wanted to annex the two provinces whose recognition as separate was his premise (however dubious) for the recent invasion of Ukraine.
This idea (me guessing on how he'd pursue a limited war) left me puzzled at the broader push towards Karkhiv and Kiev, since a "weight the main effort" approach would focus on those two regions as a second bit taken (Crimea being the first bit a few years back) that was both digestible and manageable.
My thought was that the big build up in the north was intended as a threat, even a feint, roughly a Sword of Damocles, while the move into Luhansk and Donetsk was accomplished.
Obviously, my estimate was incorrect. (And it would still result in no land bridge to Crimea).
The air superiority I expected the Russians to exercise seems to not have materialized.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 3rd Mar 2022 at 21:52.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 22:11
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And don’t forget part of Moldova that was on the Belarus map.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 23:25
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V o A .........

...
Nadine's taken some flak ...
Voice of Auntie - While we're on the subject, I note that the BBC "is to launch a daily short wave radio service across Ukraine and parts of Russia." Refs - NYT, Huff Post etc

15735 kHz - 1800 to 2000 and 5875kHz - 0000 to 0200 Kiev Time (GMT + 2)

I don't know when it's going to start but I hope it will quickly move to H24 and all of Russia.

Perhaps Sky could donate their TV channel, recently forcibly 'vacated' by Russia Today ***. (Dontcha just miss the cloud cuckoo fellow-traveller fishy rubbish they broadcast ?) ... Apparently some of their presenters got conscience-struck by the editorial bias.

Or Elon Musk might use a bit of his satellite tech to bring some free-to-view TV Reality to picturise the truth-starved majority across all of Mother Russia. ... Difficult to shoot down his entire murmuration.
...
LFH
...
*** Similar arrangement with DirecTV in the USA - also now terminated.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 23:55
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An A-10 Thunderbolt II rolls in on a simulated target. (Image credit: Tom Demerly - TheAviationist.com). in the box, one of the memes circulating online these days.

A-10 Pilots Say Why Stopping the Russians Outside Kyiv Is a Very Dangerous Mission.


In every war, some images become iconic. So far in the Ukrainian war, the MAXAR satellite photos of Russian vehicles lined up for “40 miles” along the PO2, T1019 and T1011 highways north of the Hostomel Airport outside the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv have made headlines around the world.
The photos of highways clogged with Russian invasion forces have prompted armchair experts on social media to post memes of the A-10 Warthog with “BRRRRRRT!” scrawled across them. The Facebook “experts” suggest a few A-10s could just roll in and use their GAU-8 30mm cannons and AGM-65 Maverick missiles to decimate the Russian vehicle column. “That’s what I told my wife!” one of the posts read.

But according to current A-10 pilots, there’s only one problem, “It’s not that easy”. An Air National Guard A-10C Thunderbolt II pilot told TheAviationist.com. “It has to be a pretty permissive environment for us to just roll in and do a gun run. That doesn’t happen much anymore.”

Another popular meme that you can see online these days.Even before the Russians crossed the border into Ukraine, defense and aerospace analyst David Axe wrote in Forbes magazine that, “If Russia invades Ukraine, its front-line air-defenses will be the most dangerous in the world”. Axe went on to say in his January 10, 2022 article, “If that Russian army rolls in, a whole lot of additional MANPADS and SAM vehicles will come with it. They, combined with longer-range SAMs on the Russian side of the border, could force the Ukrainian army in Donbas to fight without the benefit of any aerial support”.

While some of Axe’s analysis hasn’t been entirely accurate – the Ukrainians have gotten some combat aircraft in the air- they have already suffered the loss of one of their most celebrated combat pilots, Col. Oleksandr Oksanchenko, who was shot down in his Sukhoi by a Russian S-400 Triumph surface-to-air missile (SAM) near Kyiv on Friday, Feb. 25, 2022.

And even though recent upgrades to A-10C Thunderbolt II have improved its targeting and communications capabilities, the A-10 was built to fight a very different war than the one we are seeing now in Ukraine.

An A-10 Thunderbolt II Davis-Monthan AFB training at low level in the western U.S. (All images: TheAviationist/Tom Demerly unless otherwise stated)

The A-10 was originally conceived to offset a massive imbalance in the number of tanks between the Soviet-backed Warsaw Pact and the NATO alliance. Strategists anticipated a huge flood of Russian tanks pouring through the Fulda Gap in Germany. At the height of the Cold War, the A-10 was intended to moderate that imbalance by providing a dedicated tactical anti-armor asset that could kill Soviet tanks. But although the A-10 was heavily armored with a titanium tub surrounding its cockpit, its prospects for survival even in the Soviet air defense era were poor due to a concentration of effective, highly mobile anti-aircraft weapons systems perfected by Russian suppliers in the real-world testing grounds of the Vietnam War and the many Arab-Israeli wars.

In his 1993 book, “Warthog: Flying the A-10 in the Gulf War”, author William H. Smallwood wrote about the dangers A-10 Thunderbolt II pilots faced when performing close air support missions over Iraq:

“I myself figured that, knowing the number and kind of SAMs [surface-to-air missiles] the Iraqis had, that if we ever went to war, 20 to 25 percent of us were not coming back.”
Smallwood wrote about one of his experiences in Iraq:
“I rolled in and as I was strafing the target I started taking AAA [Automatic Anti-Aircraft fire]- heavy AAA. I was diving at about a 60-degree dive angle – and this was my near-death experience. I saw what appeared to me to be a fireball come by my canopy. It was either heavy AAA going by or a missile…”

An A-10 Thunderbolt II of the Michigan Air National Guard.Going back as far as the Vietnam conflict, the Republic F-105 Thunderchief, a supersonic aircraft designed for high-speed medium and low level nuclear strike missions, suffered withering losses over North Vietnam, a country protected by a Soviet designed air defense network. According to researcher Rebecca Grant of AirForceMag.com, “The cumulative totals were shocking: The Air Force lost 40 percent of its total production of F-105s to combat in Vietnam.” And it was nearly as bad for the iconic F-4 Phantom II. Grant writes, “Approximately one out of every eight F-4s ever built by McDonnell Douglas—for all services—was destroyed in Vietnam”.

And remember, these losses were to early Soviet Bloc air defense systems supplied to the North Vietnamese and almost always crewed by North Vietnamese, although intelligence suggested Soviet “advisors” also played an active role in the air defense of North Vietnam.

In the post-Vietnam era, U.S. strike doctrine improved exponentially with the introduction of “stealth” or low radar observability when the F-117 Night Hawk, the “stealth fighter”, was introduced. For a decade, the F-117 “stealth fighter” operated with near-impunity against sophisticated Soviet-bloc air defenses during precision, low observable strikes. In December, 1989, during Operation Just Cause in Panama, U.S. F-117s dropped laser-guided bombs next to a Panamanian barracks as a diversionary strike. And in the F-117’s greatest performance on January 17, 1991, the stealth fighter brought “shock and awe” to downtown Baghdad, Iraq in the opening hours of Operation Desert Storm.

But even this temporary immunity to Soviet-designed air defense systems was fleeting. On March 27, 1999, the Yugoslav 3rd Battalion of the 250th Air Defense Missile Brigade shot down a USAF F-117 Nighthawk with an S-125 Neva/Pechora surface-to-air missile (SAM) outside Budanovci, Serbia in Yugoslavia. Russian air defense doctrine had achieved parity with U.S. stealth technology.

It’s important to understand that the A-10 Thunderbolt II first flew a half century ago in early 1972. It wasn’t until almost a decade later in 1981 that the F-117 flew for the first time. In fact, it could be argued that the Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II actually has more in common with its WWII namesake, the propeller-driven Republic P-47 Thunderbolt, than it does with the current low-observable F-35 Lightning II that can strike a vehicle column with impunity from a distance using precision stand-off weapons.

In reality, the A-10 Warthog is actually more similar in capabilities to the WWII P-51 Mustang than it is to the F-35 Lightning II, making it a poor choice for attacking a heavily defended vehicle column like the one outside Kyiv, Ukraine.And while the cost of hitting a $10-20,000 USD Russian truck with a $25,000-plus precision guided JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) seems high, remember, it costs between $5-million and $10-million USD to train a U.S. Air Force pilot.

Consider that 31 years have passed between the first flights of the WWII P-47 Thunderbolt and today’s A-10 Thunderbolt II. But 34 years have passed between the first flight of the A-10 Thunderbolt II and the current F-35 Lightning II. And, during this entire time, the Russians have been perfecting the capability to shoot down western aircraft at test sites in Russia and real-world battlefields from Cuba to Africa, the Middle East, Indo-China and the Arctic.

Although the A-10 Warthog is an emotional favorite of aviation fans, the F-35 Lightning II is more suited to attack a vehicle column in a heavily defended area like the one we’re seeing outside Kyiv.So, while we all love the A-10 Thunderbolt II, she is better off in the asymmetrical global war on terror than she is in this new super-power slugfest in Ukraine, even though that reality ruins a lot of social media defense experts’ memes.

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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 23:57
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Originally Posted by transport jock
The figure I heard before the invasion started, was that for a country of Ukraineís size, they would need atleast 300000 troops just to secure the major cities after a military victory. Thatís one of the reason the person they were interviewing said they didnít think Russia would invade because they didnít have enough troops on the borders..
Russia only has 280,000 it its entire army. It has many more in the reserves but as unpopular as this is I think you could discount them to being an effective force. You then have to counter this against the numbers they need in eastern, and southern Russia. And because itís the type of state that it is you almost need troops everywhere to keep order when/if the rioting starts.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 00:19
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I would think that an invading force would struggle to hold Basildon with 50,000 troops, never minds an entire country.

You would have to be pretty sure that much less than one on 800 people wanted to kill you in order to do that - and that is "welcoming parade with ticker tape territory", not "hostile invader who just flattened your city and killed your family"
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 01:25
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From the BBC:

Alarms raised over attack on nuclear plant

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says Russian troops are "firing from all sides" at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest plant in Europe.

As we just reported, local officials say that a fire has broken out in the plant because of these attacks.

"Russians must IMMEDIATELY cease the fire, allow firefighters, establish a security zone!" he wrote on Twitter.

Laura Rockwood, the director of the Open Nuclear Network non-profit, earlier told the BBC's Radio 4 that the war could have an impact on Ukraine's electricity grid, which depends on nuclear power.

She said military activity around a plant poses two direct risks to nuclear instillations - potential damage to a plant's infrastructure and harm to its personnel, or much more serious damage that affects a plant's operational abilities that could cause a meltdown.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 01:29
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Originally Posted by Ripton
I would have agreed but I think the longer this goes on the less likely the ascension of anyone associated with Putin will be an acceptable option as they will have become too complicit. If too much time passes they might also see themselves as being trapped. "I am in blood Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go oíer." and all that.

Lavrov being one of those already too toxic.


Telegraph at 10:06am

I think this is the only way now.
The Russians could just stop listening to Putin. If they did this, he has no power. Putin can order this, and order that, but if no one carries out his orders, he is now only the Tzar of his bunker, cut off, isolated, and now Putin is his own Russian Empire of one person...
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 02:01
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Originally Posted by atpcliff
The Russians could just stop listening to Putin. If they did this, he has no power. Putin can order this, and order that, but if no one carries out his orders, he is now only the Tzar of his bunker, cut off, isolated, and now Putin is his own Russian Empire of one person...
Hopefully a true patriot from the Federalnaya sluzhba okhrany will draw his Gurza and save the world.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 02:20
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
BBC News - Ukraine: On board a Nato spy plane monitoring Russian activity
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60612255

Fingers-crossed the assembling aircraft weren't Backfires or Blackjacks, else, with their full bomb-load, you could kiss good-bye to a couple of square miles of city centre per raid of a flight of three ! And they used these on Grozny and in Syria.
I think that the still extant Ukrainian Air Defence System would have something to say about that!

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Old 4th Mar 2022, 03:37
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What about a B-2 strike? I heard it carries 200 bombs. Could it do a strike undetected by Russia???
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 04:13
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Just when it seems impossible for Putin to become more amoral in his actions, his troops start shooting directly into zaphorista nuclear power plant. This is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Putin is a global threat, to his own army, to the Ukranian, and to everyone in the northern hemisphere. A deliberate attempt to destroy a NPP that would make half of europe and Russia, Ukraine, and everything downwind of that, which include the Former CIS states, Mongolia, China, Korea, Japan, Canada USA, etc... this is an imminent global threat. It is time to do the no fly zone and start employing counter force in Ukraine to stop this insanity. The fact that Putin is now a Nixonian type "madman" wild card does not alter the potential outcome.

Here is the hard geopolitical truth to the situation.

Assuming Putin won't drop a bucket 'o sunshine on a remote oblast of Ukraine or on downtown Kiev is not a zero probability. Assume he does, what is the response? We have a world that is so concerned with his state of mind that we sit around watching him commit murder in plain sight, and effectively we are on a road to a bad day. As this proceeds there is no downside to him dropping one nuke, and then the response being a resounding whimper, At that point, Putin has removed the testicles of the whole world, and there is no stopping his warning shot of the same on Helsinki, Copenhagen etc, as they know the response is a whimper. The risks of doing nothing now appear to outweigh the risks of a UN intervention in force in Ukraine to stop his insanity.



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Old 4th Mar 2022, 04:24
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Originally Posted by havoc



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Quanity has a quality all of its own. How many A 10ís can you buy for the price of one F35, not to mention the F35ís serviceable rate is so low you basically need 2 on the flight line for everyone you launch.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 04:50
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Originally Posted by fdr
Just when it seems impossible for Putin to become more amoral in his actions, his troops start shooting directly into zaphorista nuclear power plant. This is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Putin is a global threat, to his own army, to the Ukranian, and to everyone in the northern hemisphere. A deliberate attempt to destroy a NPP that would make half of europe and Russia, Ukraine, and everything downwind of that, which include the Former CIS states, Mongolia, China, Korea, Japan, Canada USA, etc... this is an imminent global threat. It is time to do the no fly zone and start employing counter force in Ukraine to stop this insanity. The fact that Putin is now a Nixonian type "madman" wild card does not alter the potential outcome.

Here is the hard geopolitical truth to the situation.

Assuming Putin won't drop a bucket 'o sunshine on a remote oblast of Ukraine or on downtown Kiev is not a zero probability. Assume he does, what is the response? We have a world that is so concerned with his state of mind that we sit around watching him commit murder in plain sight, and effectively we are on a road to a bad day. As this proceeds there is no downside to him dropping one nuke, and then the response being a resounding whimper, At that point, Putin has removed the testicles of the whole world, and there is no stopping his warning shot of the same on Helsinki, Copenhagen etc, as they know the response is a whimper. The risks of doing nothing now appear to outweigh the risks of a UN intervention in force in Ukraine to stop his insanity.
I agree, that if Putin goes too far, it will be better for NATO to enter the conflict, than to stay out of it...
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 04:53
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Originally Posted by atpcliff
I agree, that if Putin goes too far, it will be better for NATO to enter the conflict, than to stay out of it...
in that case it is not NATO going in but a UN peace forcing operation or loose coalition of individual countries. NATO is a defence organisation.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 04:54
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I think if he did detonate a tactical nuclear weapon - NATO's tactics would change completely.
I'm sure there's already a contingency plan for that which none of us are aware of yet.
A lot of AWACS activity on the Polish border currently.
And Buzzards F-16s airborne out of Aviano with full combat loadout.
I actually think detonation of say a 10kt warhead is not inconceivable "...see, I'm really serious, don't muck around with me..."
Try dropping one right in the centre of Ukraine: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
Relatively light damage, radiation spread etc.
But an horrific message.
I wonder what's happening at Incirlik at the moment?

Last edited by tartare; 4th Mar 2022 at 05:21.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 05:22
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Thanks, the deliberate attack on a nuclear power station ups the ante and we are essentially on the precipice of a global catastrophe of biblical proportions. We have arrived at that position from not standing up to aggression in the past. Chechnya was an attempt at genocide, twice, Georgia was an abuse of a sovereign state, and Syria is disgraceful. The only counterpoint is that UK and US history is replete with their own share of outrages, but "what about" does not justify any genocide.

I would predict about a p=0.2 of Putin dropping a nuke somewhere in Ukraine in the next 14 days, to show the world that no one will stand up to him, the Trumpist "I can stand on a corner of 5th ave and shoot someone and no one will stop me..." And he is absolutely correct, no one will respond to a single nuke on a 3rd party outside of NATO territory. Hence the need for UN employing a unified ground intervention and no-fly zone at the soonest opportunity, to avoid one nuke being dropped on Ukraine, and then one on Helsinki, one on Malmo, etc... If he gets away with one with only handwringing that is not a big disincentive to making his fashion statement.
He has just made a bloody big one by smoking the nuke powerplant, his so-called new free republics are all downwind of that, as is lots of Russia, the whole of Kazakh, etc, and China... none of this is good. Hopefully he will not die of old age, and perhaps there really is a god. Right now, he should be pretty pissed off with us for proving there is no intelligent life in this part of the universe.

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