Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 10th Jan 2023, 02:52
  #13321 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2022
Location: Worcestershire
Posts: 149
Received 11 Likes on 8 Posts
old addage adjusted

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Leaving the symbolism aside, does the supply of Bradley and Marder FV significantly improve Ukraine fighting abilities ? Do they not already have a large - albeit rather mixed - number of IFV from Britain, Australia and numerous other countries ? Are these Western units much better ( if at all ) than all the BMP variants ?
variation has a quality of its own. keep them guessing
MJ89 is offline  
The following users liked this post:
Old 10th Jan 2023, 04:37
  #13322 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,871
Received 116 Likes on 67 Posts
We have discussed endlessly the possibility of the demise of V.V. Putin, by sickness, bullet, poison or window, but there are two competing figures beginning with P and ending in -in.

No-one IIRC has yet talked fully about the danger of the influence that the other one holds, (the head chef at the Hotel W), almost controlling Putin at present as if he were a puppet, and the possibility that he too might not be absolutely safe from nasty accidents. In fact, the tough Beef Stroganov that he has been stewing up around Bakhmut may not have been quite as soft and juicy as Putin's palate had anticipated.
jolihokistix is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 11:02
  #13323 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,103
Received 2,432 Likes on 1,014 Posts
Ouch

NutLoose is online now  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 11:10
  #13324 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,103
Received 2,432 Likes on 1,014 Posts
Russia now deploying their hellfire missile, the 305 LMUR

https://www.theinfographicsshow.com/...armor-missile/


US considering supplying Strikers.

NutLoose is online now  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 13:11
  #13325 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: london,uk
Posts: 735
Received 4 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
Agree with you. However that is not happening - the conversations on Bradleys/Tanks etc are for far smaller numbers...just enough to keep Ukraine on the front foot as Russian tactics improve and lessons are learned. The West will keep Ukraine from losing, as I have said, but we didn't want them to win too quickly. I know this.

However, have we now reached the point where we are prepared to finally arm Ukraine and watch them win? I don't know the answer to that, but looking at the types and numbers of vehicles etc being suggested, I suspect not. We want the Russian military ground down to the point that if Putin does stumble out of a window and die of cement poisoning, his successor - who could be even 'worse' - will have nothing left to fight with (apart from Nukes, and who knows if they even work, although some probably do but it's a risky game to fire one to see if it is functional)

This is reality folks and if you want to hurl insults like OMEGAV6 because you have nothing intelligent to say, then crack on if it makes you feel better.
the number of Bradley's is to be determined. They sent 3 Himars to start with. It's all about the training.
peter we is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 15:23
  #13326 (permalink)  
Administrator
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: The Gulf Coast
Posts: 1,663
Received 259 Likes on 116 Posts
If I may offer a to peter's point there: It's all about the training.
The rate at which you can train the soldiers with modern equipment is a key determining factor in how many - Leopard 2s, Bradleys, HIMARS, or other systems - you can bring to bear how soon.
(And that gets longer and more expensive with aircraft).

If I may add to peter's point:
As you deploy formations of weapons systems, you also have to activate a combat support / logistic capability to keep them in the fight. {Note 1}
That doesn't happen overnight.
{Note 1}: This appears to be where the Russians fell down rather badly during their initial attempt at a Blitzkrieg in February of 2022.
T28B is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 16:16
  #13327 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,103
Received 2,432 Likes on 1,014 Posts
It helps that some of the western countries are repairing and returning kit for Ukraine,

Such as Slovakia


Lithuania


Poland


NutLoose is online now  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 17:02
  #13328 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,103
Received 2,432 Likes on 1,014 Posts
It looks like an ex Eniskillen fire engine was damaged in Kherson.


NutLoose is online now  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 18:37
  #13329 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 64
Posts: 7,073
Received 261 Likes on 170 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
helps that some of the western countries are repairing and returning kit for Ukraine, Such as Slovakia Lithuania Poland
Nice neighbors to have. (Tweets deleted in the interest of brevity).
I went ahead and dug up some articles about the success that BFV's had versus Russian made armor in Iraq/Kuwait.
Interesting reading, which makes the donation of the BFV (if the TTP and training are a part of that package) look better than my first impression of that news.
Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 19:24
  #13330 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Central UK
Posts: 1,558
Received 99 Likes on 54 Posts
Reports that Russia has taken th town of Soledar should be of great concern.
Soledar is placed on a massive system of salt mines that extend for miles deep underground and would offer the Russians impregnable and infinite space to stockpile troops, munitions and armour in total safety.
The prospect of a large force being prepared underground unseen and of unknown quantity that can just erupt from a score or more of entrances like a horde of Orcs must be immensely serious.
One can only speculate whether the opportunity to steal an entire lucrative industry is not also a considerable motivation for Prigozhin. I cannot imagine the idea has escaped him while he has tens of thousands of mobiks to expend in gaining that prize.
meleagertoo is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 19:41
  #13331 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 299
Received 195 Likes on 34 Posts
Originally Posted by meleagertoo
Reports that Russia has taken th town of Soledar should be of great concern.
Soledar is placed on a massive system of salt mines that extend for miles deep underground and would offer the Russians impregnable and infinite space to stockpile troops, munitions and armour in total safety.
The prospect of a large force being prepared underground unseen and of unknown quantity that can just erupt from a score or more of entrances like a horde of Orcs must be immensely serious.
One can only speculate whether the opportunity to steal an entire lucrative industry is not also a considerable motivation for Prigozhin. I cannot imagine the idea has escaped him while he has tens of thousands of mobiks to expend in gaining that prize.
They said the same about the Mariupol Steel Works, that it was impregnable and was designed as a nuclear bunker.
The Russians dealt with that in several weeks.
Plus if the salt mines are so great, then surely the Ukrainians are popping up behind the Russian lines and creating havoc?

I would suggest with the equipment and training the Ukrainians are getting, then their tactics will change considerably and bypassing a load of Orcs underground will be a win.
My thought is that salt mines are probably very dry places and troops need a lot of water to survive...anything that keeps the enemy fixed in position while armoured columns thrust deep into Putin's rear is going to make him go goggle-eyed.
Spunky Monkey is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 21:04
  #13332 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Baston
Posts: 3,195
Received 402 Likes on 190 Posts
Originally Posted by T28B
If I may offer a to peter's point there: It's all about the training.
The rate at which you can train the soldiers with modern equipment is a key determining factor in how many - Leopard 2s, Bradleys, HIMARS, or other systems - you can bring to bear how soon.
(And that gets longer and more expensive with aircraft).

If I may add to peter's point:
As you deploy formations of weapons systems, you also have to activate a combat support / logistic capability to keep them in the fight. {Note 1}
That doesn't happen overnight.
{Note 1}: This appears to be where the Russians fell down rather badly during their initial attempt at a Blitzkrieg in February of 2022.
With regard to training, I wonder if some of the older forum members [of whom I am one] might have missed a generational difference, in that young folk, raised in a sophisticated Western techno age, are incredibly quick on what we might call gadgetry? Fortunately my lot has spawned seven graduates with good degrees in relevant subjects, but thay are no better than the dullest village youngster in using technology: they all quickly infer much from little and are fearless in application.
I hope and believe that the modern young people of Ukraine are similarly blessed, and that the Orcs, gazing at a screen or a piece of complex kit through vodka eyes, see something shiny to loot or wreck, and cannot find the ON button.
langleybaston is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 21:26
  #13333 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Rhone-Alpes
Posts: 1,143
Received 220 Likes on 126 Posts
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Interesting reading, which makes the donation of the BFV (if the TTP and training are a part of that package) look better than my first impression of that news.
Just read that Ukrainian crews are to be trained down at the Grafenwöhr training area in Bavaria.
Tartiflette Fan is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 21:32
  #13334 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,706
Received 132 Likes on 64 Posts
Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
They said the same about the Mariupol Steel Works, that it was impregnable and was designed as a nuclear bunker.
The Russians dealt with that in several weeks.
Plus if the salt mines are so great, then surely the Ukrainians are popping up behind the Russian lines and creating havoc?

I would suggest with the equipment and training the Ukrainians are getting, then their tactics will change considerably and bypassing a load of Orcs underground will be a win.
My thought is that salt mines are probably very dry places and troops need a lot of water to survive...anything that keeps the enemy fixed in position while armoured columns thrust deep into Putin's rear is going to make him go goggle-eyed.
“I have a great idea…bring lots of explosives and flammable stuff then let’s all hide down a massive salt mine that our enemies have the blueprints for. We’ll be safe there!
What could go wrong?” What’s that you say? ‘Seal us underground? Pour fuel and explosives down ventilation shafts? Ignite same thereby sucking all the air out of the mines?’ Nyet…they’ll never think of that!”

Good luck with that plan!

Also isn’t one of the rules of combat : “If you make it impossible for the enemy to get in ….you make it impossible for you to get out!”
albatross is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 21:36
  #13335 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Yakima
Posts: 561
Received 137 Likes on 58 Posts
Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
They said the same about the Mariupol Steel Works, that it was impregnable and was designed as a nuclear bunker.
The Russians dealt with that in several weeks.
Plus if the salt mines are so great, then surely the Ukrainians are popping up behind the Russian lines and creating havoc?

I would suggest with the equipment and training the Ukrainians are getting, then their tactics will change considerably and bypassing a load of Orcs underground will be a win.
My thought is that salt mines are probably very dry places and troops need a lot of water to survive...anything that keeps the enemy fixed in position while armoured columns thrust deep into Putin's rear is going to make him go goggle-eyed.
Not only that, depending on how deep the mines are they will be serviced by lifts and a limited number of shaft openings, which would seem to offer nice ways to block them with a few HIMARS. If this is a surface mine, adits would also seem easy to block.
Winemaker is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 22:03
  #13336 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2022
Location: SW England
Age: 72
Posts: 251
Received 78 Likes on 42 Posts
These salt mines are pretty deep. A heavier than air gas could fill them. The Russians could try and use them as a shelter. AFAIK carbon dioxide isn't a chemical weapon. Just saying . . .
_Agrajag_ is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 22:14
  #13337 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glorious Devon
Posts: 2,575
Received 507 Likes on 281 Posts
Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
These salt mines are pretty deep. A heavier than air gas could fill them. The Russians could try and use them as a shelter. AFAIK carbon dioxide isn't a chemical weapon. Just saying . . .
Two thoughts ,it probably is illegal and pretty much impractical. If the mines are expansive, you would need an awful lot of gas and the cooperation of those running the ventilation system. I wonder if the ventilation system blows good air in or sucks bad air out or both?
Ninthace is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 22:17
  #13338 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: EGDC
Posts: 10,275
Received 604 Likes on 264 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninthace
Two thoughts ,it probably is illegal and pretty much impractical. If the mines are expansive, you would need an awful lot of gas and the cooperation of those running the ventilation system. I wonder if the ventilation system blows good air in or sucks bad air out or both?
Is Novichok available as an aerosol?.........asking for a friend.
crab@SAAvn.co.uk is offline  
The following 4 users liked this post by [email protected]:
Old 10th Jan 2023, 22:22
  #13339 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2022
Location: SW England
Age: 72
Posts: 251
Received 78 Likes on 42 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninthace
Two thoughts ,it probably is illegal and pretty much impractical. If the mines are expansive, you would need an awful lot of gas and the cooperation of those running the ventilation system. I wonder if the ventilation system blows good air in or sucks bad air out or both?
The mines are disused and have been for years. I doubt there is any working ventilation. Chances are they are already unsafe from gas build up.

No idea about the legality of using carbon dioxide. It can't be a chemical weapon given we all breathe the stuff out, can it?
_Agrajag_ is offline  
Old 10th Jan 2023, 22:52
  #13340 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: A better place.
Posts: 2,318
Received 23 Likes on 15 Posts
No doubt Ukrainian military commanders would welcome Russia storing large amounts of military hardware and people underground in one location.
Simply then a case of finding all exits - many of which may already be known - HIMARsing them shut - and entombing said hardware and people.
tartare is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.