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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 17th Mar 2022, 10:13
  #3341 (permalink)  
 
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More tank landing craft on the way?
Round Africa will take a bit of time.

Quote: Four Russian warships were spotted sailing through a strait in northeastern Japan, possibly transporting troops and combat vehicles to Ukraine, the Japanese Defense Ministry said.
Four Russian tank landing ships were confirmed to have passed through the Tsugaru Strait between Japan's main island of Honshu and its northernmost main island of Hokkaido from the Pacific Ocean into the Sea of Japan.

https://japantoday.com/category/nati...ops-to-ukraine
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 10:42
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
More tank landing craft on the way?
Round Africa will take a bit of time.

Quote: Four Russian warships were spotted sailing through a strait in northeastern Japan, possibly transporting troops and combat vehicles to Ukraine, the Japanese Defense Ministry said.
Four Russian tank landing ships were confirmed to have passed through the Tsugaru Strait between Japan's main island of Honshu and its northernmost main island of Hokkaido from the Pacific Ocean into the Sea of Japan.

https://japantoday.com/category/nati...ops-to-ukraine
Will be interesting to see where they're headed, given the Black Sea isn't accessable to them currently.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 10:50
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker
Will be interesting to see where they're headed, given the Black Sea isn't accessable to them currently.
Surely to Vladivostok, to disembark whatever's onboard for ongoing rail/air transport towards Ukraine?
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 10:54
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They headed south away from Vladivostok… (?) And the ships themselves are very important.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 11:18
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Is it me or is Putin in his speech not only having a go at his elite earlier on, but also starting to sound like Hitler in his dreams of the Russian version of a true Aryan race. (About 1.50)



A lot of his Armour that is being used was apparently shipped from Siberia
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 11:22
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Perhaps Russia will make Turkey an offer they cannot refuse.

And maybe the Navy is rushing to show their loyalty, as slowly as possible.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 11:32
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Perhaps Russia will make Turkey an offer they cannot refuse.
Turkey? A NATO country?
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 11:36
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A NATO country that bought S-400's from Russia and gave up F-35 program involvement to do so.

On the flip side of the coin they also provide Bayraktars to Ukraine. Looking after their own interests as all countries do.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 13:08
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More targets hit, transport by the looks of it.

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Old 17th Mar 2022, 13:16
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Interesting read

https://cepa.org/the-next-10-days-will-decide-this-war/
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 13:48
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More footage from Kherson airport post strike, taken on foot, they're going to need a serious FOD plod.

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Old 17th Mar 2022, 13:59
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Originally Posted by ehwatezedoing



Am I the only one who find those numbers grossly inflated?
For a start the US is estimating Russian troops loses at 7000, not the same as 13800.

Still a pretty a big number nonetheless....
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 14:08
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From my post 3471

Russia’s dilemma is only worsened by its combat casualties. Although I am always skeptical about enemy body counts, I do believe the numbers of dead are in the thousands (possibly in the 5,000-6,000 range suggested by US sources) and the numbers of wounded much higher. The modern battlefield is extremely lethal, especially for poorly trained or disciplined soldiers. These are very high numbers for just the first two weeks of war and many come from Russia’s elite units — they are hard to replace (and the Kremlin won’t be able to conceal these losses from the Russian public and all those for long.)
A figure is also been banded around on Twitter of 1000 POW's

Also

NEW from @CBSDavidMartin: A U.S. official estimates Russians have lost 5,000-6,000 killed in the first 2 weeks of battle. Standard battlefield math assumes 3x as many wounded as killed, so that puts the number of wounded at 15,000-18,000.
From the link here


Which tallies with that figure of losses as a total.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 14:13
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
More footage from Kherson airport post strike, taken on foot, they're going to need a serious FOD plod.
When I watched the earlier footage I did wonder what kind of tyres they had on that SUV - how was it able to go more than a hundred feet without getting four flats. There's FOD everywhere
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 14:30
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Originally Posted by ehwatezedoing
For a start the US is estimating Russian troops loses at 7000, not the same as 13800.

Still a pretty a big number nonetheless....
Yes, but that's KIA and obviouslythere will be much greater WIA. The figures from the Kyiv Independent don't specify, so could actually be an underestimate if it were KIA+WIA.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 15:14
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Re 4 x Tank landing ships. Possible scenarios.
1. Destination Odesa. Run the Bosporus blockade somehow at night. (Three went through pre-ban at the beginning of February.)
2. Feint. They’ll cross east around south of Japan and back up the east coast to the Kuriles or Vlad.
3. Sale agreed to China who desperately need such craft for certain plans of their own. Perhaps Russia had been saying no, but the situation has changed?
4. Other.
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 15:34
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Re 4 x Tank landing ships. Possible scenarios.
1. Destination Odesa. Run the Bosporus blockade somehow at night. (Three went through pre-ban at the beginning of February.)
2. Feint. They’ll cross east around south of Japan and back up the east coast to the Kuriles or Vlad.
3. Sale agreed to China who desperately need such craft for certain plans of their own. Perhaps Russia had been saying no, but the situation has changed?
4. Other.
Any idea of their maximum sustained speed? Odesa would be 10,000 miles via Suez, which is 2 weeks at a continuous 30 knots (which feels rather on the high side). A more plausible but still rapid 20 knots pushes that out to 3 weeks, without any allowance for RAS, Suez and Bosphorus transits and other potential delays, so realistically more like a month. Surely they can't be planning that far ahead???
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 15:41
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Re 4 x Tank landing ships. Possible scenarios.
1. Run the Bosporus blockade somehow at night. (Three went through pre-ban at the beginning of February.)
r.
Has this happened before ? How did the Turks react ,
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 15:45
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Yes, TF. 9 Feb 2022

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...uding-new-lst/

And a good article with photos of the latest four ships here:
https://news.usni.org/2022/03/16/rus...hern-black-sea
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Old 17th Mar 2022, 15:50
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That was before Turkey invoked article 19/21 (not entirely clear which actually applies) of the Montreux convention on 28 Feb:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...s-to-warships/
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