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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 12th Mar 2022, 23:23
  #3121 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
NATO is not just sitting and watching. Continuous sophisticated weapon supplies to Ukraine and numerous economic sanctions and financial restrictions is a helluva lot! Rushing in with direct military effort would instigate WW3, a crazy outcome that could end humanity.
I fully respect this view, nevertheless it is time to provide the support that will make the difference. Putin’s war is illegal and it is time to deny Russian forces air superiority. I am not an AirPower strategist, but Russia must be denied freedom of the skies over Ukraine.

Putin is using the possession of nuclear weapons as an umbrella to prevent decisive support for Ukraine and this is just unacceptable. There is risk that this strategy will be imitated by China, Iran, North Korea and other counties who achieve possession of nuclear arms. America should communicate clearly to Putin that any employment of weapons of mass destruction will be answered by overwhelming force without measure.
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Old 12th Mar 2022, 23:33
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
I fully respect this view, nevertheless it is time to provide the support that will make the difference. Putin’s war is illegal and it is time to deny Russian forces air superiority. I am not an AirPower strategist, but Russia must be denied freedom of the skies over Ukraine.

Putin is using the possession of nuclear weapons as an umbrella to prevent decisive support for Ukraine and this is just unacceptable. There is risk that this strategy will be imitated by China, Iran, North Korea and other counties who achieve possession of nuclear arms. America should communicate clearly to Putin that any employment of weapons of mass destruction will be answered by overwhelming force without measure.
The Russian air force does not have air superiority. Their losses to date show that. It seems there are limited short-range and cross border sorties but I have not seen that described as Air Superiority and I doubt the Russians see themselves as having freedom of the skies. The air above Ukraine is not an aviation friendly environment with both sides having extensive surface to air hardware.

To other posters on here. There is a BIG difference between seeing what is happening as far as the west is concerned and what is actually happening. Just because you don't see it, does not mean it is not happening.

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Old 12th Mar 2022, 23:58
  #3123 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
America should communicate clearly to Putin that any employment of weapons of mass destruction will be answered by overwhelming force without measure.
The only one who wins that scenario is China.
As to your suggestion of an ultimatum, he knows that what you propose is a bluff - which is why he's doing what he's doing.
He knows that there is not, to date, unity of purpose to that level among the various Western governments.
We all have to much to lose, the risks are too high to escalate.
The Russians have been preparing to do this for a number of years as that low grade civil war in Ukraine has gone on.
This didn't happen overnight.
The time to deliver an ultimatum that was backed by the full faith and confidence of the allied governments was before the tanks rolled.
But we bickering allies could not provide a united front, which I think (as seen looking west from Putin's chair) provided the cracks and openings through which to maneuver politically. I am glad to see that Ukraine is fighting hard and making him realize that he's not entitled to what he wants.

The lack of resolve before the tanks rolled leaves the same Western political leadership in the position of cleaning up afterwards.

Air wise, the ELINT and INT assets are probably being used to provide Ukraine with info that they can't create organically.
Space wise, I am a bit out of date. Most of what I know that applies to this is bound by NDAs so I won't comment.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 00:03
  #3124 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
I fully respect this view, nevertheless it is time to provide the support that will make the difference. Putin’s war is illegal and it is time to deny Russian forces air superiority. I am not an AirPower strategist, but Russia must be denied freedom of the skies over Ukraine.

Putin is using the possession of nuclear weapons as an umbrella to prevent decisive support for Ukraine and this is just unacceptable. There is risk that this strategy will be imitated by China, Iran, North Korea and other counties who achieve possession of nuclear arms. America should communicate clearly to Putin that any employment of weapons of mass destruction will be answered by overwhelming force without measure.
Denying the freedom of the skies over Ukraine is an interesting idea that is frequently thrown around. To do so requires at least air superiority by Ukraine or an airspace that is inimical to aviation up to the service ceiling of Russian ac. To be effective, in either case, it would have to extend outside the borders of Ukraine to prevent the effective use of stand off weapons. So far I have not seen a strategy to achieve this. The Ukrainians do not have the resources AFAIK and the intervention by a third party is likely to be problematic.

If anyone has an idea, I would love to read it.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 00:12
  #3125 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav

Putin is using the possession of nuclear weapons as an umbrella to prevent decisive support for Ukraine and this is just unacceptable. There is risk that this strategy will be imitated by China, Iran, North Korea and other counties who achieve possession of nuclear arms.
Have Iran and NK got a large arsenal of ICBMs?
As for China, why would they annihilate the very people who owe them Trillions of $$$?
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 01:50
  #3126 (permalink)  
 
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Hmmmm

A senior Russian diplomat warned that Moscow could attack foreign shipments of military equipment to Ukraine. Speaking Saturday, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow has warned the United States "that pumping weapons from a number of countries it orchestrates isn't just a dangerous move — it's an action that makes those convoys legitimate targets."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia...-war-1.6382718
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 01:52
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I don't reckon they'd have the balls to do it frankly.
That would bring the war right to NATO's doorstep.

Last edited by tartare; 13th Mar 2022 at 03:07.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 04:15
  #3128 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare
I don't reckon they'd have the balls to do it frankly.
That would bring the war right to NATO's doorstep.
Withhout further clarification, this is nothing. Once in Ukraine obviously they will be targets. Outside Ukraine on NATO territory they become something completely different , but this is not stated;
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 08:24
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Tony Abbot (an ex Australian Prime minister) promises to shirtfront Putin....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-...r=HtmlFragment

Where is Abbot now when the world so badly needs him?

DoT
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 09:35
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Bermuda suspends airworthiness certificates of hundreds of Russian aircraft

The Bermuda Civil Aviation Authority has suspended the airworthiness certificates of Russian aircraft. Aircraft that have been on the territory of other countries since March 13 without such documents may be denied return to Russia, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR) explained . According to the IBA consulting agency, 745 Russian aircraft out of about 1.4 thousand are registered in Bermuda.


https://bernews.com/2022/03/bcaa-airworthiness-system-restricted/
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 10:33
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Originally Posted by Usertim

Bermuda suspends airworthiness certificates of hundreds of Russian aircraft


https://bernews.com/2022/03/bcaa-airworthiness-system-restricted/
How many western owned AC are still in Russia? Any sign that Putin would confiscate them as a countermeasure?
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 12:35
  #3132 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pali
How many western owned AC are still in Russia? Any sign that Putin would confiscate them as a countermeasure?
There was a news piece a few days ago that stated approx 500-ish western leased aircraft, and that the leasing companies had managed to impound only 20 or so on non Russian soil. No info on accuracy of that article.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 12:42
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I think Rain at the afterburn pocast and his guest does a very good explenation on why no-fly zones worked in some places in the 90s, and why it will not work in Ukraine. And actully will not help the civilian population that much.

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Old 13th Mar 2022, 12:57
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Usertim
Pete Adhemar strikes!
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 13:10
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Originally Posted by Dead on Time
Tony Abbot (an ex Australian Prime minister) promises to shirtfront Putin....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-...r=HtmlFragment

Where is Abbot now when the world so badly needs him?

DoT
He was voted out. Democracy is a weird thing. If only Putler was in a Democratic system.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 14:25
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One returned home.
olexander scherba
#StandWithUkraine#PutinIsaWarCriminal#PutinsWar#RussianInvasion#UkrainianHeroes#FreeIvanFedorov


Last edited by T28B; 13th Mar 2022 at 23:09. Reason: Learn how to edit your posts
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 14:33
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New York Times journalist killed 8n Irpin

Vitaliy Popov
@Vitaliy23404583
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 15:30
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
The only one who wins that scenario is China.
If that ends in a nuclear exchange then nobody wins, not even China. Unless you are referring to an overwhelming conventional response, in which case it would have to be one that doesn't result in things escalating to nuclear conflict.

China has 1.4 billion mouths to feed and the prevailing winds will blow all the fallout from Russia onto the agricultural land in China. The Chinese will always act in their own best interests (as can be said for basically all other countries!). The Chinese are doing their best to stay as neutral as possible because it best serves their interests right now, and the depths of their loyalty to Putin are probably best revealed by the fact they have abstained from several key votes in the UN rather than vote with their ally (a friendship that has no limits apparently....).

I think things will be quite different if nuclear war starts to become inevitable, China will be forced to pick a side and will choose the one that best guarantees the war doesn't go nuclear. So they won't be taking Putin's side. Note that I said Putin and not Russia.....
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 20:18
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The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent
·
President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Ukrainian soldiers wounded in battle as they are getting treatment at the military hospital in Kyiv.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 20:19
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