Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Capt Kremin]

At this stage I find the most intriguing part of this is why they would commit assets like P3Cs to a sea search in the Malacca Strait.

Nothing so far released would justify that. "Evidence of an Air turn back"...?

That is not an air turn back if they are searching there. Some of the journalists, notoriously ignorant on aviation matters, need to start asking some pertinent questions such as;

Why are valuable assets being used to search an area diagonally opposed to the original flight path and what evidence has been found to support that search?

If a primary radar trace has been observed flying in that direction, why is a sea search being carried out there... I.e. what evidence is there that the observed trace went down in the sea at that spot?

The Malaysians seem to be withholding information.

[Lonewolf_50]

Why are valuable assets being used to search an area diagonally opposed to the original flight path and what evidence has been found to support that search?

If a primary radar trace has been observed flying in that direction, why is a sea search being carried out there... I.e. what evidence is there that the observed trace went down in the sea at that spot?

The Malaysians seem to be withholding information.
Capt K, I seem to recall that the AF 447 ACARS info was a leak, not an official release, initially. With that in mind, there may be a bit of data with a time tag that, while not the usual data like radio call, transponder, etc, would take the datum of "last radar/transponder return" and expand a point datum to an area based datum (farthest on circle) on elapsed time.

Why haven't they shared that info yet? Perhaps due to security reasons opaque to you or I, but making much sense to those holding fragments of data and trying to make sense out of it.

If you've had a chance to get involved in a SAR operation, I think you'll appreciate how one has to account for the many unknowns one faces early in the operation.

[Evenrude]

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JE4MbiIGdZ4

[B Sousa]

Things float. Even things from an exploded plane and falling from 30? whatever thousand feet. Once debris is spotted and an estimate on its drift at least there will be a Ballaprk to play in for wreckage. Next will require a deep sea submersible which are available ...at a price. Im not sure of the depth in that part of the world, but I do think its way over my head. Another big problem, but today not something that cannot be done.
Black Boxes are a must but even they will only tell configuarion and telemtry at the time, not the cause.

[ExSp33db1rd]

[Black Boxes are a must but even they will only tell configuarion and telemtry at the time, not the cause.]

Cockpit voice recorders may.

[VH-Cheer Up]

In an area where maritime rights are sometimes a matter of dispute, isn't it odd that no country's military has yet come forward with their military radar recordings showing how the aircraft tracked after transponders stopped transmitting.

Didn’t they pick anything up after contact was lost? That would be embarrassing = loss of face.

Did someone see it depart from the flight plan, send up fighters to, um, investigate... perhaps things went pear-shaped = loss of face. Realising their mistake and believing the 'people' don't need to know everything their regime is up to, they decided to keep it quiet!
So far, three days, they still haven't been found out.

The truth will come out eventually. Maybe.

[Bedder believeit]

I haven't read the hundred's of opinions both professional and amateur here but I have noticed a few comments re radar both primary and secondary. Allow me a minute to explain. Primary radar is a basic skin paint return and is subject to slant range error. So if an aircraft at 37,000ft overflies a primary radar head, the radar display will not show the return as overhead the radar head's location but will push the return to a point about 5 Nautical miles to one side. This is because primary radar is 2 dimensional. A secondary radar return is synthetically produced by one or more SSR receivers and via a Radar Data Processing computer, a SSR return is electronically produced on the radar display. Thus you could say that a Secondary radar return is in effect 3 dimensional. So if an aircraft was to overfly a co sited primary radar head along with one or more Secondary radar receivers, then as the aircraft flies overhead at 37,000ft a 4 to 5 mile discrepancy between the position of the primary return and secondary return will be apparent.
This is not relevant as to why or what has happened to the Malaysian 777 but is an observation made by a recently retired controller with over 40 years experience

[DX Wombat]

isn't it odd that no country's military has yet come forward with their military radar recordings showing how the aircraft tracked after transponders stopped transmittingNo. We don't know that they haven't. All that is known is that nothing has been said publicly and the only people who need to know are those charged with conducting the search.

[Richard W]

Jetstream67:
Secondary radar stopped abruptly (Flight24)
But Primary radar (where? Whose? What type) continues tracking long enough for searchers to issue a claim it 'turned back' (so 180degs exactly ?? and at what turn rate- a few clues from that maybe ??), Then vanished. (n.b. even small lumps of metal don't just vanish on (presumably) military radar which can also normally tell altitude from return range !!)Military radar usually measures range and angles (and often closing speed too). However, at low angles, elevation angle measurements, and thus altitude measurements, can easily become unreliable because of multipath and possibly even ducting effects. At this point, the angle seems low enough that measurements may not have been accurate enough to usefully indicate altitude. Multipath effects can also cause the target to vanish.

[SLFgeek]

If some physical evidence in the local area doesn't turn up soon, then we will probably have to invoke Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's hero, Sherlock Holmes;-“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”
With all the myriad possibilities, has anyone considered the recent EY461 incident ? I doubt that would cause a sudden disintegration, but it is a recent event, and originated in that part of the world.

Did 9M-MRO have inflight wifi service ? Another method of getting something out, if there were sufficient time to do so.

From what various posters have said, the aircraft was not under civilian primary radar coverage at the time the various signals were lost. If there had been a naval ship in the area, with an air search radar operating, they may have seen something that could lend a clue. Beyond that, if the aircraft ended up transiting some remote land area, would a military radar automatically scramble jets to see what was up there, or would they note it and ignore it (because it wasn't considered a threat) ?

[glendalegoon]

bedder beleivit


your knowledge of radar is a very welcome addition to the thread. as many of us know radar sep is required to be more conservative the farther from the radar antenna.

it would be odd, but believable if the secondary and primary were confused by someone leading to the idea of a turnback.

anyway, I do wish we would get an actual statement from authorities about the way the radar was being used, but there might be a military secret or something else involved.

all I am suggesting is that the searchers may be looking in the wrong spot.

being a good old rooting tooting American, I'm betting our ships and planes spot it before anyone else.

;-)

[FullWings]

Looking at the ever-widening search area, the logical conclusion is no, they don't have any useful primary/military radar plot. It could be that there are some recordings that might produce something when analysed but it's almost past the time frame for that now - I'm sure that was thought of not long after they drew a blank originally.

[training wheels]

(c) to coincide with the "10,000 foot checklist" of other items.

There is a '10,000 foot checklist'? In my company, the seat-belt signs are in the after take-off checklist, but often that item is deferred until we're clear of weather obviously.

BTW, we do check that pressurization is normal passing 10,000 ft, and I'm sure many other airlines will have the same procedure as well, for obvious reasons. Of the thousands of flights I've done, I've had two instances where pressurization wasn't normal passing 10,000 ft, one resulting in an RTB (return to base) and the other, maintaining altitude until the problem was rectified (as it was a simple fix). In our case, pressurization was a problem; could it have been the same for MH370?

[broadreach]

Fingers crossed that the most recent debris search doesn't turn out to be another false lead. Two comments:

Deletion of posts: I would like to buy a bottle and a bucket of ice for the mod or mods who've been monitoring this thread, to be imbibed as soon as the hubbub's died down. You have done a superb job of trying to keep it credible, even if there might have been a few deletions that could have remained.

Malacca Straits: Think pragmatic, not conspiracy. It's not every day that a superpower has the opportunity to explore sensitive areas with some of the most sophisticated kit available. At this time we have no idea whether there was any real indication the aircraft was heading west. But put yourself in superpower shoes and wonder whether it might not be a good idea to get an update on your existing data, with full support from local governments? Of course you'd go for it.

[Mr Optimistic]

My experience as a pax without any claims to rigour is that things loosen up in the cabin just after reaching cruise. People get to their feet and movement starts.

[Hedge36]

Well, I'll be... My original post has gone now. GlobalNav, Barti01 and Hedge36's references to it are the only evidence it ever existed.

This IS a rumour network and surely it is permissible to discuss (a) speculative ideas and (b) forum conduct? Why should anyone want to shut that conversation down without simply turning off the whole idea of PPRuNe?


On another forum I frequent, it's often pointed out that the mods do a fairly thankless job decrufting runaway threads such as this, and as such should be spared from their actions being questioned.

The simple rule: no whining.

Rule 2: if you don't like it, feel free to request a refund of your membership.

:)

[bono]

If you take the point in time where transponders shut off as t=0, or corresponding location as origin point, a few results can be arrived at:


1. Lack of debris on sea surface in the immediate vicinity of origin point lead us to believe that the aircraft did not structurally disintegrate, either due to aerodynamic forces or through explosives .
2. Lack of IR signature confirmation by US SBIRS (Infra red spotting satellite system) also lends credence to the result that the aircraft did not explode in air at origin point.
3. Suicide theory can also be laid to rest because a pilot intent on committing suicide will not linger around in air and in fact will try to head down right away after turning off transponders leading to debris field around origin point.
4. However, since we know as a fact that the aircraft eventually crashed, it leads us to believe that the aircraft was severely impaired at t=0, even if it was structurally intact. Whatever happened around t=0 was catastrophic enough to eventually bring the aircraft down. It not only took out communication ability of the pilots but a lot more than that.
5. A set of pilots finding themselves in a catastrophic situation are highly likely to look for a landing strip ASAP. Given that they have likely lost their navigational ability as well (most likely), at night, they are going to head for nearest land, wherever they might think it is.
6. If we take it as a fact from Malaysian authorities that the aircraft tried to turn around, it could be an indication that the pilots were in trouble and wanted to find land in haste.
7. Malaysian authorities claimed in the beginning (perhaps even now) that they lost radar contact at 2:40AM, more than an hour after t=0, if that is true then they were tracking an aircraft in huge trouble looking to land somewhere or anywhere. But it provides a radius of around one hour flying time from origin point to search for.
8. Regarding US SBIRS lack of IR signature, it could depend on what their system is optimized to detect. A missile launch is sustained bright fire, an aircraft crashing in a fireball is short term quick burning fire. SBIRS probably accurately confirm that the aircraft did not explode in air, however, will it also accurately confirm that it did not burn under jungle canopy for a short time?.

[MG23]

All that is known is that nothing has been said publicly and the only people who need to know are those charged with conducting the search.

Bingo. There's sure to be a lot of information being correlated around the world to try to work out where the aircraft is, and there's no need or benefit to putting all that out publicly; just look at the reaction to every new debris report, and then imagine reporting perhaps dozens or hundreds of uncertain radar traces or other possible sightings that are unlikely to be correct, and may well contradict each other.

If nothing else, it would be unfair on the families to raise hopes and dash them when a report turns out to be false.

[henra]

Looking at the ever-widening search area, the logical conclusion is no, they don't have any useful primary/military radar plot. It could be that there are some recordings that might produce something when analysed but it's almost past the time frame for that now - I'm sure that was thought of not long after they drew a blank originally.

+1.

Indeed if they had useful Information they would have had ample opportunity of discretely getting it to a Search Ship or plane by now which would have run 'accidentally' across some wreckage even potentially on its way to the search area if it wasn't close to LKP. Would have been a big PR trump for the corresponding Navy.

Occam's Razor says: Even the Military have not much more Information regarding the final whereabouts or what happened after the last transmission. Since that would be a quite embarrassing fact for them they might be tempted to keep rather silent about it.

Realistically, simply no one was expecting anything critical from a Military perspective in these small hours that particular night. Actual everyday surveillance capabilities might not be as good as everyone assumes.

I'm still confident it will be found soon. A 777 is a big aircraft. That doesn't simply disppear. It might however be somewhere else than where it is being looked for atm.
On the other Hand the question might be how systematic the Search is being carried out when considering how many different (and not centrally managed) parties are involved.

[Willoz269]

There are a few questions here indeed.

The aircraft, if indeed it was in the middle of the Gulf, would have been just outside the Malaysian radar cell and about to enter Vietnam's. Modern birds like the 777 use ADSB (which is what you see in apps like Flight Radar 24, it is NOT a radar feed).

The thought of the aircraft turning back comes not from a radar observation but from ACARS. More investigation is needed. If it was from radar (assuming the return was spotted), means very little. Radar does NOT tell you which direction the aircraft is facing, it simply gives you the next return. For example, you can be going north and move in a sideslip to the right, the radar will show your return to have turned.

If the data came from ACARS it is a different story, but still inconclusive. It could be showing a violent breakup. Without other data such as speed and amount of correlated data showing the "turn", there is not much to go by.

The gulf does not have a lot of strong currents, so any debirs, once found, should be (hopefully) localised.

I am starting to wonder if the initial hunch to look to the north-west and possibly even terrain south west of Ca Mau and around Kota Bharu is correct!

[tdracer]

If they don't find anything within 24 more hours, I think it may be time to step back and consider possibilities other than a crash into the ocean. The area of ocean where the 777 is reported to have disappeared is relatively densely traveled, and a 777 would leave a whole lotta floating debris (especially if it broke up in-flight). Add dozens of dedicated search ships and aircraft and it becomes hard to believe we could go 72 hours without finding a trace.

There is an awful lot of the reported 'facts' in this case that are not adding up.

[grumpyoldgeek]

It's been years since I've worked in the field, but in the day, the powers-that-be were extremely reluctant to publicly disclose anything that would reveal capabilities of their military radars. Even if it meant helping with a civil matter.

[gleaf]

Once upon a time two commercial aircraft did a mid air over the grand canyon. My source said both were reporting being elsewhere and each was taking passengers for an off track sight see of the canyon.

Results was Congress mandate the US Air Force put in place 100% coverage of the US for ATC.

Take care not to extrapolate the US flight coverage picture to the rest of the world. I get 600+ miles between Kuala Lumpur and Bien Hoa Air Base in Viet Nam. That is a lot of water with no eye's on a scope.

[Old Boeing Driver]

I'm curious as to whether or not an inflight breakup would not cause a fireball or flash of some kind.

I suppose it would possible, but I think not probable.

If NASA is telling the truth about not seeing a flash of any kind, and so far, no reports from the surface, plus the 3 or 4 aircraft in the area on clear night have not reported they saw anything, then it either disintegrated with no flash, or it was flown somewhere else.

However, if it disintegrated with no flash, it should be near where they last saw it on radar...yes?

There are a lot of international implications in the area, and I'm sure all the countries involved in the search want to be very careful about what they release.

[jugofpropwash]

Yesterday there was the report of a gentleman who had seen a bright white light descending sharply.

Given his location, the last reported position of the aircraft, etc - would this match the scenario of the flight descending to avoid radar and possibly crossing Malaysia toward the west? Could he have seen either the usual lights, or possibly landing lights? Might the pilot have illuminated the landing lights either in an attempt to attract attention (if he was under duress) or simply to see better if flying at a very low altitude?

Also - Since this transpired in the middle of the night, with it dark outside and many passengers presumably resting - if the pilots were quietly threatened into cooperation and the various coms were shut off, would passengers even have been aware of a hijacking?

[bubbers44]

We know a 777 disappeared over the ocean and we have not found the crash site. Any reasonable speculation at this point as to why is impossible.

It took two years to get the answers for AF447. The shallow water near their last known position will make this one much easier. The black boxes will tell the story when they are found.

The media wants to keep public interest up with scraps they have like stolen passports but nothing will be known until the FDR and CVR are recovered.

[dmba]

The vast majority of the speculative posts here are all with good intentions. This forum has managed to maintain a good level of respectability compared to everywhere else. I saw a youtube video of a guy suggesting that FR24 had altered the planes flight path. He has merged together a trace of the actual flight in question and the one of the following day. His video has been viewed 60000 times and a lot of people seem to believe the guy...so although you might complain about having non-pilots on here at least you don't have people intentionally spreading lies...

[mkenig]

The 1956 Grand Canyon mid-air had nothing to do with "sightseeing". That it occurred over the Grand Canyon was purely coincidence. There were changes in altitude due to weather and other factors. Changes in altitude were granted but not relayed. The crash resulted in the coordination of ATC under the newly created FAA.

1956 Grand Canyon mid-air collision - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1956_Grand_Canyon_mid-air_collision)

[HeathrowAirport]

"Malaysian authorities have released security video of the two men who used stolen passports to board the Malaysia Airlines plane that vanished over the South China Sea to international security agencies and will soon release them publicly."

Source: Missing Malaysia Airlines jet: Security footage of mystery passengers to be released (http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-jet-security-footage-of-mystery-passengers-to-be-released-20140311-hvh8m.html#ixzz2vbmpqHEo)

[StormyKnight]

The vast majority of the speculative posts here are all with good intentions. This forum has managed to maintain a good level of respectability compared to everywhere else. I saw a youtube video of a guy suggesting that FR24 had altered the planes flight path. He has merged together a trace of the actual flight in question and the one of the following day. His video has been viewed 60000 times and a lot of people seem to believe the guy...so although you might complain about having non-pilots on here at least you don't have people intentionally spreading lies...

Too true, anything without logic is quickly jumped on which is good, either by removal or several posts quoting & disproving with there own evidence.

At least here, most posts have a link to their source, so forum users & judge for themselves about the factuality of a comment. A very good habit to be in.

[MrDK]

@bubbers44
It took two years to get the answers for AF447

It took but a day to find debris

[Old Carthusian]

I am not surprised at all the speculation going on here - this is clearly a very unusual accident and the eventual explanation will be of a very unusual and rare nature. One would not have expected that the pilots of AF447 would display such levels of inability to fly their aircraft and would crash it in such a way.

However, it would be wise to wait until at least a little more information emerges. One should also not expect British or American levels of transparency from the Malaysian authorities. Other countries organisations don't necessarily share the view that all items of information should be released and so withhold certain items. They also get very prickly when challenged (bureaucrats are like that). Military involvement will also limit the amount of information released. Military organisations are past masters at operating the 'need to know' principle to its fullest. Add in possible turf wars and one begins to think that it is amazing that so much has been released. All this, though, doesn't help the search which would benefit from sharing information. But then a search involving a lot of different agencies always has the flavour of trying to herd cats.

[tartare]

OBD - it would be either the National Reconnaissance Office or the DOD itself whose SBIRS satellites would have seen a flash, not NASA.
A few pages back, there was an explanation as to why an in-flight breakup in the cruise might not necessarily result in an explosion.
Agree with the above poster.
This is a part of the world where there is a fair bit of military tension at the moment.
If military radar is being used as source data to try and help in the search, I would imagine there would be huge sensitivity and scrutiny before releasing anything that might give a clue to operational capabilities.
I suspect that's the real reason for the Civil Aviation guy's rather mysterious comment that he `can't tell the press everything.'
I also suspect that's why they're looking in the Straits of Malacca as well... they know something we don't yet.
Some insight can be gained here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia%E2%80%93Malaysia_relations) as to how any search involving military capabilities there might be a little `delicate' so to speak.

[etudiant]

The two individuals with stolen passports bought the cheapest flight available for their routes, so they flew economy.
Sitting in the back of the airplane, they would draw attention just by coming forward into the first class/cockpit area. That seems inconsistent with a planned hijacking. They are more likely just two of the victims rather than perpetrators.

[Old Boeing Driver]

Thanks for the correction. I couldn't remember.

I did see the previous posts about the no flash break up. I'm just not sure

I agree with the above poster as well.

Have a good evening.

[paddylaz]

Interesting new tidbit:

CNN' chief national security correspondent said the revelation that Mr Ali bought passports and tickets for the two Iranian passengers adds to concerns the loss of the Flight MH370 might have been a terrorist atrocity.

Jim Sciutto said: "This adds to the concerns because a terrorist group would go to a fixer too."

"They piggyback on drug smugglers and immigration smugglers, so absolutely they could go to this guy. He may know nothing about it. He would be just given a sum of money and told 'get these people on an airplane, get them passports'."

[B772]

MH have decided to bring the families of all the 'lost' passengers to Kuala Lumpur as soon as possible. There is an additional service from Beijing to Kuala Lumpur today especially for the families, the details being highly confidential. The overflow passengers will be accommodated on scheduled services. The OneWorld partners of MH have been requested to assist with transport to KUL from all parts of the World except China.

The reasons for this action appear to be due to the unrest and problems being caused by the families of 'missing' passengers in China. All costs including medical and cash are being borne by MH. Each family is being provided with at least one MH staff member acting in the role of a caregiver. MH staff from Australia have been sent to KUL to assist with the families of 'missing' non Asian passengers.

The name of the Chinese passenger whose name was obscured on a passenger namelist released has now been released. The investigation team now believe there is a link between the 2 passengers using fake passports and the disappearance of the aircraft which could be anywhere.

A disaster recovery management specialist from Atlanta has been engaged to assist MH with dealing's with Authorities

[jugofpropwash]

CNN' chief national security correspondent said the revelation that Mr Ali bought passports and tickets for the two Iranian passengers adds to concerns the loss of the Flight MH370 might have been a terrorist atrocity.

Earlier in the thread, there were quotes from the ticket agent who sold the tickets. If accurate, it really doesn't sound like there was any particular requirement to get the two with stolen passports on the same flight - never mind a particular flight. If that's true, then it seems unlikely they were terrorists.

[shawk]

From CNBC World:
Updates on MH370: Malaysian authorities have postponed news conferences indefinitely.

[tvasquez]

I am kind of amazed that nothing has turned up after 3 days. I still don't think weather is an issue but I went ahead and assembled a collection of charts profiling the upper-air data, sea-surface temperature, and currents for you all to peruse. I saw several pages back that people were asking about winds aloft, so I have included some radiosonde profiles from both Ho Chi Minh City and the Malaysian coast.

Tim Vasquez
Weather Graphics

Link:
Collection of meteorological and oceanographic images for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - Weather Graphics (http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia)

Sample chart: FL340 chart for 08/0000 UTC with observed radiosonde and interpolated winds:
http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/20140000_250_small.gif

[Towhee]

Sadly, the South China Sea, at least the stretch between Kota Kinabalu, in Malaysian Borneo, and Hong Kong, is incredibly littered with debris and garbage. There are also plenty of large patches of oil. If the rest of the SCS is similarly polluted, wouldn't this increase the difficulty of locating debris from MH 370?

[Stanley11]

The Malaysian authorities are handling the situation rather respectably. Their efforts to take care of the families are First world standards, in my opinion. There are enough experts and assets allocated to the search and I am certain the boots on the ground are doing all they can, systematically. Taking care of the families is now the priority as the 'rescue' efforts become 'recovery'. Those in the business would understand the meaning and mindset shift.

Having a loved one missing is horrible. I was once in a flight that was diverted, delayed and then returned to the place of origin. It was before the days of cellphones. My fiancee then was worried sick and could not find a means of finding out what went wrong and fearing the worse. In such situation, they will cling to any hopes, any theory that offers a chance of survival. They are extremely vulnerable. I find that in such circumstances those that try to profiteer are the scums. Reporters that try to sensationalise, clairvoyants that claim that they can help to locate the missing, lawyers that circle to get a class action suit, etc. The NST already reports that 'Bomohs' (the local title for clairvoyants) are joining the search.

MISSING MH370: Help from bomohs must be in accordance to Islam - Latest - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-help-from-bomohs-must-be-in-accordance-to-islam-1.507063)

http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-raja-bomoh-arrives-to-help-find-missing-plane-1.506402

[woodja51]

Given the massive amounts of speculation on this event which in all honesty is bizarre given the lack of physical evidence so far might I suggest this accident/ unlawful interference or what ever the cause is a good catalyst for ICAO to revisit Interpol procedures for passport databases/ info sharing and also real or semi realtime data transmission or alternative methods of flight data retrieval to what is current installed.

Similarly, and not that this implies a cause in this case- merely another Achilles heel to address, look at the U tube link below which highligts what I believe is a weak spot in a 777 ( in fact all Boeings greater than 767 in size as fitted) defences. I have been banging away trying to mandate a fix for several years but frankly am getting a sore head doing so. Although I honestly believe this will most likely turn out to not be relevant in the MH case, it provides information that might be in need of attention by authorities ( IMHO only)


B777 E/E ACCESS - MSc. RESEARCH (Copyright - M WUILLEMIN) - YouTube

[jugofpropwash]

Woodja,

Similarly, and not that this implies a cause in this case- merely another Achilles heel to address, look at the U tube link below which highligts what I believe is a weak spot in a 777 ( in fact all Boeings greater than 767 in size as fitted) defences. I have been banging away trying to mandate a fix for several years but frankly am getting a sore head doing so. Although I honestly believe this will most likely turn out to not be relevant in the MH case, it provides information that might be in need of attention by authorities ( IMHO only)

Would someone accessing this area be able to shut down all coms/transponder/etc by pulling appropriate C/Bs?

[MountainBear]

is a good catalyst for ICAO to revisit Interpol procedures for passport databases/ info sharingNo it isn't. There are damn good reasons why no one cared before and those damn good reasons will continue to exist after the cause of this accident has been determined.

The fact is that the illegal passport has nothing to do with the incident. The entire airline security apparatus is designed to make sure that the authenticity of the passport is irrelevant to the actual security of the plane. There is nothing a terrorist can do with a fake passport that he or she cannot also do with a real one.

If this does wind up being a terrorist incident the focus will be...rightly so...on how the explosives got on the plane...a fact for which the passport is not relevant. There is no good reason to turn the airline industry into the goon squad for the immigration authorities.

[woodja51]

No , nothing to worry about according to several very large carriers ,
Boeing, FAA, Homeland security , FBI , OTS (Australia ) .. hmmm anyone else
I have advised.

I might add I have 3000 command hours B777 ( among other types ) so not just an academic ..

Maybe there might be some traction on this, if there can be said to be anything
good about any crash occurring changing the status quo at all

[LASJayhawk]

Jugofpropwash: the breakers are on the flight deck, but most of the radios and fancy electronics are in the e&e bay. So yes I could start pulling boxes.

Don't have a layout of a 777 bay handy, but in general HF and Sat Comms are in the tail.

[prayingmantis]

@Passenger_389: Completely agree with every statement you made. Couldn't have said it better myself. The theories are getting more bizarre, and are becoming less factual. And it's a stretch to say there are many facts to begin with.

Anything is possible, within reason. A plane lost without debris, at least at this point in time, narrows things down only marginally: e.g. areas searched, mechanisms of crash.

Apologies for putting it bluntly, but this story is in its infancy and has yet to be told. It will be fascinating once discovered, but until then, everything is mere speculation. Being a pathologist (side job as pilot) it's akin to trying to postulate a cause of death and not even having a body to autopsy yet. We're still at the "missing person" stage. Once the correct areas are searched thoroughly, evidence will be uncovered. Undoubtedly it will. Until then? Not much to go on, in my humble opinion.

Of course the theories will continue to run wild...

[mickjoebill]

There is nothing a terrorist can do with a fake passport that he or she cannot also do with a real one.


Not quite, in many countries a known terrorist can't get on an airline using his own identity.
The entire airline security apparatus is designed to make sure that the authenticity of the passport is irrelevant to the actual security of the plane.
Yes, in its present state, the concept of using an immigration document for security is partially flawed because the most careful examination of identity happens when a passenger[B]arrives[/B at the destination.

Passports can be stolen (even blank ones), pictures photoshopped, facial features altered…

Lets keep passports for proof of nationality and that can continue to be run and governed by each country, but why not add a second, robust and modern layer of identity check which could be managed and implemented by interpol.

Something along the lines of a retina scan, so no additional documents to carry, can't be faked, sold or manipulated by corrupt officials.

Essentially a bad guys record would stay with his retina record.

So after passport control you'd step up to the Interpol Retina Scanner™, wait a few seconds then continue on your merry way.

Sure the rollout would take many years, but reliance solely on a piece of paper and a photo is not the future!

Transport bodies have mandated numerous restrictions on the flying public, no smoking, X-ray radiation, shoes off, belts off, physical searches, no liquids, metal and explosive detectors, all of which target trying to catch the implements of terror rather than the terrorist.

If airlines and airports the world over can agree on such a wide range of security impositions a retina scan can be achieved.

[mabuhay_2000]

Aviation doesn't exist a bubble. Many criminal activities can be carried out using commercial aircraft.

To suggest that all that matters is stopping aircraft from blowing up is very short-sighted.

If a terrorist, using dodgy documents, takes a commercial flight from A to B so that they can commit a terrorist atrocity, wouldn't it be a good idea to intercept that terrorist before they can carry out said atrocity?

It is simply not acceptable to suggest that AVSEC has no role to play in crime-fighting or ground-based terrorism.:suspect:

[BreezyDC]

At the risk of confusing folks on this forum with facts, a summary map of ocean currents in the search area is at Air-safety and antiterror authorities appear stumped about direction of investigation of Malaysia Airlines jet (http://online.wsj.com/news/interactive/MALAIRMAP0810_c?ref=SB10001424052702304704504579430210684954 006)

...and they ain't flowing north in the South China Sea.

[mabuhay_2000]

Excellent comment, with which I thoroughly agree.

There is no good reason, expense aside, why a universal biometric ID system cannot be introduced.

The focus of AVSEC is wrong, as it stands. I have been saying this for years. The focus has to be on catching the terrorist, to remove them from the board, not just the prevention of terrorist acts.

I know, from experience, that airlines want the path of least resistance when it comes to AVSEC and they see it as a hindrance, not a useful tool in the wider fight against all forms of criminal activity. That, IMHO, is a shortsighted view.

[mabuhay_2000]

That thought has been nagging away at me, too.

We have only the airline's word that all the bags were removed. Where are the bags? What was done with them? Where are the no-shows now? Did they reclaim ALL their bags?

I guess that, unless a whistleblower says otherwise, we won't know whether the airline is telling the truth or not. We'll just have to accept their word that they did.

[BreezyDC]

OK, let's try again without links to other press websites (although the forum rules only cite links to other "aviation websites"):

At the risk of adding facts to this forum, published maps of currents from Oceanographic Society of Japan data show both currents flowing south where the planned flight path approaches Vietnam. One current in the South China Sea flows south past the coast of Vietnam and its southern tip on down past the east coast of Malaysia. Another flows clockwise south along the Cambodian coast and rotating south west and then west from the southern tip of Vietnam and back up the east coast of Thailand at the Isthmus of Kra.

[philipat]

In such a scenario, firstly the communication with the home hub would have leaked and, secondly, in such an emergency situation with no other traffic around (4AM Local?) especially in what I believe were conditions of light winds at KUL, the aircraft would have come straight in over land for Runway 32 and not gone out into the Straits of Malacca?


But to deploy such enormous resources to the grid in the Malacca Straits, there must indeed be information which is not being shared.

[compressor stall]

What "evidence" (or observation) is there that the Malaysian Government is not being completely open with what they know?

[LASJayhawk]

BreezyDC...your 1st post with the link is still there, right where you left it.;)

http://www.pprune.org/8365573-post1596.html

[MTOW]

The terror organisations recognise that the sure way to win the current war they're waging against the West is to use the Ronald Reagan ploy of making the war simply too expensive for the other side to wage. If this turns out to be a terroist attack, it's clever, particularly if it can be repeated.

Someone, be it a terrorist who forced his way into the cockpit or a pilot who has been recruited or forced to co-operate with the terrorists, had to have enough knowledge of the 777 to know which nav and comm. functions to disable - and in a very short time - to cause it to disappear (in an electronic sense) in a matter of seconds. After that, it's just a question of getting the aircraft a long way away from the commonsense search area before ditching it or flying it deliberately into the sea to destroy it. (When your foot soldiers are willing to die for the cause, the possibilities that can be employed are endless.)

The effect of two or three similar disappearances will be huge. The incredible expense, both to governments and airlines, in just trying to find the missing hull, will eventually become crippling; the drop off in passengers, as airline travel becomes something less than 100% safe in the public's perception, will hurt the airlines' bottom line; the increased security measures will make airline travel an even more painful experience than it has become since 2001.

All will end up making travel very, very expensive, which means the bad guys will have won, for without easy and cheap air travel, Western society will not be what it has become over the last fifty years.

[philipat]

"What "evidence" (or observation) is there that the Malaysian Government is not being completely open with what they know? "


1. Lack of information regarding the basis for the turn back scenario.

2. Reasons for the extensive high value assets search of the entire Straits of Malacca all the way up the coast of Sumatera.

[Hedge36]

I'm still waiting for someone to explain why, exactly, the Malaysian government has a responsibility to divulge information of any sort to anyone except the families of the passengers and the search teams tasked with locating the airframe.

[philipat]

Agree completely but that was not the question I was responding to.

[harrryw]

You may think that the airline (or govt) only needs to repond to relatives but all of us do have a stake in knowing that our present and future safety in air travel is assured and will not be subject to coverups.

[LongTimeInCX]

woodja
Very interesting post and video highlighting a serious security weakness.
Your efforts to bring it to the attention of the powers that be should be applauded. I would question however, whether a public forum along with YouTube are sensible places to disseminate such information. Clearly many on this planet have some weird neuro-wiring, and I wouldn't like to think they got the idea for the next aviation disaster from your video.

There was a punchup with the blockheads some 70yrs ago, and posters on the London underground used to say "Ssshhh, loose lips sink ships!"
I'm not saying this glaring security hole shouldn't be fixed, just that these places may not be the most prudent to air such weaknesses in our systems.

[Ex FSO GRIFFO]

To Mr Hedge 36...

Er......

In the 'Public Interest'..???

[mattyj]

hedge36, because we fly planes too, and we're worried it might happen to us..

[Hedge36]

You may think that the airline (or govt) only needs to repond to relatives but all of us do have a stake in knowing that our present and future safety in air travel is assured and will not be subject to coverups.


Well, that's a lovely sentiment. Unfortunately, at this point, without an aircraft there's little one can do but wait. That nothing new has been learned as of yet means nothing has changed with regard to your safety, and no evidence has yet been unearthed regarding a coverup.

[camel]

Philipat

1 . They said there may be indications on military radar of a 'turn back' and also that those indications might be confirmed by singapore..but no details

2 They are most likely not allowed to disclose details of any information. at least not until the aircraft is found, which might then verify the 'indications of a turn back' especially if coming from another country.

[Pom Pax]

Malaysia Updatel (http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html)

[Bananafishbone]

Creds: A PP (737/767/A330) who is only SLF when the company makes me.

Does the 777 QRH procedure for smoke shed electrical sources as dramatically as the Airbus? 767 IIRC just sheds high draw items likely to burn up (recirc fans et al) but leaves the AC buses powered. Be nice if I'm wrong as this memory is from my previous type and it's been a few years.

Shed electrics and descend (in preparation for smoke clearance) and of course LAND ASAP are all standard actions for profuse unknown smoke. I don't have access to a 777 QRH, but it's not a far leap to wonder if the procedure sheds enough electric sources and buses to interrupt the ACARS/Mode C transmissions which have been so profusely fretted over here. Never mind the burdonsome comms while on mask and goggles.

Though it's not as if this scenario has been discussed wrt the 777 lately.

FAA: Some Boeing 777s need fixes in case of fires (http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/05/09/boeing-777-fires/2147173/)

If the flight turned back towards land in search of that ASAP landing, they spent no small amount of time flying away from the last known position. I've not seen that map of current search area - apologies if it covers this scenario.

Let's hope not for speedy resolution but an accurate one which prevents another loss.

[anawat]

Crash: Malaysia B772 over Gulf of Thailand on Mar 8th 2014, aircraft missing (http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0)

[StormyKnight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiYLRfzCIAAT9XF.jpg

The left red box is a long way to not be spotted on primary radar!

[Ida down]

Hedge, probably because the whole industry is jittery right now. And that includes the PAX. Its in the interest of all, for whatever happened, be released as soon as possible, as they have always done. People, given something concrete to deal with, find is easier than facts kept behind closed doors. The industry needs to know what happened to that aircraft, and as soon as possible.

[Feathered]

Re: Earlier comment about the 2009 Air France recorder recovery:
Debris does not mean answers. With AFR447, there were some details transmitted from the aircraft via ACARS that night. However, the full picture of what actually happened (including the prolonged stall and a stall warning that only functioned when the aircraft was starting to recover from the stall due to the computer disregarding very low airspeed indications) as well as crew inputs were not known until the flight recorders were recovered. That happened in mid 2011, about two years after the accident. Air France and the French government tried with great effort to locate the flight recorders before giving up and hiring Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution to find the recorders. Phoenix International recovered them shortly thereafter.

[StormyKnight]

Also - China deploys 10 satellites to help in search for Malaysia jet

China deploys 10 satellites to help in search for Malaysia jet | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/us-malaysia-airlines-china-idUSBREA2A03V20140311)

[updrifter]

training wheels wrote:

BTW, we do check that pressurization is normal passing 10,000 ft, and I'm sure many other airlines will have the same procedure as well, for obvious reasons. Of the thousands of flights I've done, I've had two instances where pressurization wasn't normal passing 10,000 ft, one resulting in an RTB (return to base) and the other, maintaining altitude until the problem was rectified (as it was a simple fix). In our case, pressurization was a problem; could it have been the same for MH370? Aside from the Payne Stewart Learjet incident there has been another prominent case of crew and PAX being knocked out by hypoxia. Helios Airways flight 522 in 2005, a Boeing 737.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

The problem was simply that the pressurisation system was set to "manual" instead of "automatic". The 737 flew on auto until fuel was empty and crashed.

In case of MH370 I wonder where it would have ended up in such a scenario. For sure it would have gone far, but it should have attracted attention somewhere on the way?

[jugofpropwash]

If they think the aircraft attempted to turn back, then why are they looking in the Malacca Strait? Unless the maps are deceptive, from the last known location, a return to origin would be just west of south. The Malacca Strait is west. That doesn't sound like "turning back."

[baron_beeza]

A shootdown ?

What target do you go in search of in darkness and at 2 am ?
Any hi-jackers may have done just a little planning I would have thought.


If that would be a serious option perhaps closer to the end of the flight would make a statement and be some form of possibility, certainly as far as seeing a potential target goes.

I don't see anything that suggests the aircraft has been taken over.
After 3 or 4 days I also doubt very much that the media, and us, are getting told anything like the real facts. This certainly is a strange one and I feel for the friends and relatives.

[Hedge36]

Hedge, probably because the whole industry is jittery right now. And that includes the PAX. Its in the interest of all, for whatever happened, be released as soon as possible, as they have always done. People, given something concrete to deal with, find is easier than facts kept behind closed doors. The industry needs to know what happened to that aircraft, and as soon as possible.


Oh, trust me - I agree with the need to get pertinent information out as quickly as possible. However, I don't believe any pertinent information yet exists.

If, by chance, some miscreant or gang of miscreants brought this aircraft down by force (be it an explosive or a hijacking gone wrong), we won't know the full nature of their actions for quite some time. As a result, we can't be any more mindful of our environment than we are at this very moment.

If the aircraft failed, we won't know THAT for a long time, either.

And yes, I agree that the Malaysian government bears a responsibility to our industry to disseminate whatever information they glean from this case as quickly as possible. I just don't think they know anything.

The general public, facts or no facts, will be unnerved by this incident. Regardless of the cause, the perceptual damage to the industry is already done, yet the flying public seems to have an unreasonable expectation that the case be wrapped up before the evening repeat of American Idol (42 minutes, if you record it and skip the adverts).

It seems the local guv has plainly stated that the odd search area is due to the possibility that the aircraft turned. What else could be covered up at this point?

[LASJayhawk]

Thanks to Pom pax link we now have times an cycles.
AFTT: 53465.2
Cycles: 7525

I would note on the Southwest 737 the total cycles was 39,786. BUT, they estimate the first crack started at about 1500 cycles.

Ntsb report in word format, with pretty pictures of the bird is here: http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/2013/AAB1302.pdf

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that this could be a failure do to a hidden manufacturing defect.

[porterhouse]

If they think the aircraft attempted to turn back, then why are they looking in the Malacca Strait? Their search may have nothing to do with aircraft turning or not turning (evidence of either can be sketchy) . Perhaps they simply want to search everywhere their search assets can be easily dispatched because of easy logistics and/or distance - clearly other countries are covering other areas.

[Heliox]

The last known location for MH 370 @ IGARI.
The initial SAR efforts were centered around IGARI. (East of Peninsula Malaysia)

Then we get a cryptic statement that radar indicates a turn back may have occured. MMEA starts by initiating a search in the Malacca Straits centered around Pulau Perak

We now have an expanded SAR area that includes the Malacca Straits and up to the Andamans. This is west of Peninsula Malaysia. The new search area is HUGE, nearly five times that of the search area centered around IGARI.

The head scratcher for me is this ...

How is it possible for a large commercial airliner to fly from IGARI to the Malacca Straits, without getting picked up by an assortment of civil/military radar?

If you straight line IGARI to Pulau Perak, you come within spitting distance of 2 military airbases (Butterworth and Gong Kedak) and 2 civil airports (Penang and Langkawi)

I do not know for sure what is the radar coverage like in that region but surely, in a border zone between Malaysia/Thailand with 4 airport/airbases on the Malaysian side alone, there must be some kind of comprehensive coverage?

So unless MH 370 did some really spectacular low level flying to get under radar coverage, then either ...

i) It did get picked up by radar crossing the peninsula, hence the rather large west coast search area. IF SO, then why are the people "in the know" still searching IGARI?

ii) It did not get picked up by radar approaching/crossing land. IF SO, why the humongous search area in the straits of malacca on the basis of a short radar track indicating a turn back? Unless they had a much longer radar track of MH 370 beyond the turn back?

iii) In which case, Gong Kedak airbase operates SU-30 MKMs, Butterworth airbase operates F/A-18Ds. These are front line fighters for the RMAF, with at least a couple of birds on Alert 15/30/60(?) that could have been scrambled to have a look-see? To me, a large commercial jet deviates 180 deg and does not respond to comms, heading back towards land surely warrants an intercept to have a look-see?

I can understand a difficulty in locating MH 370 if it crashed outside radar coverage and expanding the search area further with a bias towards no-radar coverage areas.

I find it difficult to understand searching a supposedly high radar coverage area, unless they know it did crash there and are not telling us ...

Much appreciated if anyone can shed some light on this.

[Akron36]

Was MH370 equipped to send ACARS data stream - if so to whom, the airline, Boeing?

What is the range of the of the emergency signal emitted from the black box?

If the plane ditched in the Malacca Straits it must have overflown Malaysia; but its transponders must have been turned off or the flight path would have been visible to FR24 etc right? But visible to military defence systems right?

AF447 should have been much harder to find but for the relative transparency of Air France and other authorities concerned and therein I suspect, lies the rub.

[Passagiata]

Assiduous moderating (for which, thanks!) has not avoided this PPRUNE mention in the Sydney Morning Herald:
Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: the conspiracy theories (http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-the-conspiracy-theories-20140311-hvh9t.html)

[onetrack]

As of this morning (Tues, March 11, Vietnam local time), Vietnamese SAR have widened their search area to 20,000 sq km, out to Con Dao Island, which is 97NM SSW of Vung Tau (approximately 180kms).
The Vietnamese SAR crews are searching to the East of the Vietnamese mainland as far out as Con Dao, and also the area South of Con Dao.
Vietnamese SAR currently have 12 aircraft airborne, including 2 x CASA-212's equipped with "modern technical devices to European standards".

[Dai_Farr]

@ Long Time in CX:

woodja
Very interesting post and video highlighting a serious security weakness.
Your efforts to bring it to the attention of the powers that be should be applauded. I would question however, whether a public forum along with YouTube are sensible places to disseminate such information. Clearly many on this planet have some weird neuro-wiring, and I wouldn't like to think they got the idea for the next aviation disaster from your video.

There was a punchup with the blockheads some 70yrs ago, and posters on the London underground used to say "Ssshhh, loose lips sink ships!"
I'm not saying this glaring security hole shouldn't be fixed, just that these places may not be the most prudent to air such weaknesses in our systems.
LongTimeInCX is online now Report Post

The video purports to have been or contributed to someone's master's degree thesis. I couldn't comment. The fact remains, though, that since it was (and remains coz I just looked it up) on YouTube, then, for as long as it has been published, it has to be considered to have been in the public domain. If terrorists have used the internet to exchange bomb "recipes", buy weapons etc, they might well also know how useful YouTube is for making a homemade particle accelerator (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIkP9V_n9OU) !!! Look, everyone knows how to conduct an internet search and if YouTube is such a useful source of "know-how", then access to videos such as the B777 underfloor equipment bay hatch would be a cinch. If the matter had been discussed in the classroom before making it into a video, then it was no longer a secret even before the publication date. I suppose society needs to decide whether such talk is deemed careless or otherwise. Either way, in this case, the cat was already out of the bag.

You are very right, though, CX old-timer, to highlight the matter of disclosures. If pilots, engineers or other crew/staff spot a glaring error, there are channels of communication. It is a shame if, as people like the original poster of this video on here claimed, their efforts to use those channels to highlight a glaring problem go instantly to File 13! On this note, is this an innate problem of our wonderful communications technology? Is there just too much information going around? Does technology at once confound the innocent and assist those with ill-intent?

The best that can happen, now, over this particular matter is a modification, licketty-split!

[porterhouse]

for the relative transparency of Air FrancePerhaps French (and Brazilian) were more technically competent and lucky, they found debris relatively quickly and luck may also have something to do with it. But I see zero evidence of lack of transparency in this case. As a 777 pilot explained - ACARS transmission is not 100% reliable specially when SATCOM is involved.

[WangFunk]

No ELT transmission heard yet (impact unlikely)

No Seismic data

No Mayday call

No Flashbang registered

No debris so far (70+ vessels)

All happened at a waypoint where radar contact lost (supposedly)


All comms lost and no eye witnesses

[porterhouse]

military radars have not seen anything Military radars could have seen it but it takes a human being to actually crunch the data and call a target a 'threat' and act upon it. It isn't military business to sort out a stranded traffic. I bet I could fly in a jet over most of Europe, turn transponder off and none would try to pursue me, shoot me down, unless I ventured over very sensitive areas, perhaps I would be met by stern-faced aviation authorities after landing...

[ManUtd1999]

Malaysian civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, whose agency is leading a multinational effort to find the Boeing 777, said more than 1,000 people and at least 34 planes and 40 ships were searching a radius of 100 nautical miles (115 miles; 185 kilometers) around the last known location of Flight MH370. No signal has been detected since early Saturday morning, when the plane was at its cruising altitude and showed no sign of trouble.

Azharuddin said the search includes northern parts of the Malacca Strait, on the opposite side of the Malay Peninsula and far west of the plane's last known location. Azharuddin would not explain why crews were searching there, saying, "There are some things that I can tell you and some things that I can't."

Interesting quote from a Jakarta newspaper (How can jet disappear? In the ocean, it's not hard | The Jakarta Post (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/03/11/how-can-jet-disappear-in-ocean-its-not-hard.html))

The powers that be are indeed holding something back. How important the information is and why they're keeping quiet is of course unknown.

[Pom Pax]

Fact
1. The Malacca Straits are not just where the label on the map says but the entire waterway from Penang to Singapore.
2. Kuala Lumpar airport is only about 5 miles inland from "The Malacca Straits"

Not verified fact
Aircraft attempts return to base.

My guesses
With limited or no aids overflies the Malay peninsular on purpose. Turns southwards, easier to navigate with clearly defined and familiar coast line on left hand side. Plan to continue southwards until Port Dickson identified left turn and land.
But something happened, so now look in The Malacca Straits.

[toffeez]

In their latest communication the airline said "The authorities are looking at a possibility of an attempt made by MH370 to turn back to Subang" (my italics).

The plane didn't originate from Subang, and if this is more than speculation it explains why they're focussing the search on the west side of the peninsula.

[1a sound asleep]

Malaysian officials non-committal on MH370 ACARS transmissions - 3/11/2014 - Flight Global (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/malaysian-officials-non-committal-on-mh370-acars-transmissions-396857/)

Officials investigating the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER are tight-lipped about Aircraft Communications and Reporting System (ACARS) data reported by the aircraft.

WHY?

Nonetheless, ACARS data proved crucial for gaining an early understanding of Air France flight AF447, which crashed 1 June 2009. Within three days of this aircraft’s disappearance investigators released ACARS data, revealing that the aircraft had transmitted a number of failure reports for various aircraft systems.

[TwoHeadedTroll]

It is disappointing to see some comments here, along the lines of Iranian = "potential terrorist" or Asian = "less than competent". What plausible reasoning is there for an Iranian to blow up a Malaysian/Chinese flight?

State Actors: Far more violence is perpetrated against Iran by the West (including targeted assassinations of civilians) than by Iran. Furthermore, why would they take action against an ally?

Non State Actors: the primary NSAs in Iran are Sunni Baloch nationalists/separatists. I can see why they might attack an Iranian, Afghan or Pakistani plane, but it is a huge stretch to think they would put serious effort into attacking a far harder target with no obvious benefit to themselves.

Even terrorists need to have reasons, even if the media like to pretend otherwise.

[Yaw String]

Well done Captain Ross Aimer, on your interview with the World Press...some good points, however,...in response to the question of how an aircraft may react if "Landing" on water....suggesting that it would break into pieces, does not help us or the cabin staff, with the ditching demonstration, which would require far more animation!....:rolleyes:..otherwise...good stuff!

[WearyBizTrvlr]

In their latest communication the airline said "The authorities are looking at a possibility of an attempt made by MH370 to turn back to Subang" (my italics).

The plane didn't originate from Subang, and if this is more than speculation it explains why they're focussing the search on the west side of the peninsula.

Might be referring to Subang Center ATC. IIRC the flight was in contact with Subang Center when it disappeared, but close to handover to Ho Chi Minh Center. So the statement above may simply mean that the flight might have been trying to return to Subang Center airspace rather than anything more profound/sinister.

Besides, Subang is essentially KL.

[onetrack]

Let's just give the terrorism angle a rest - and the deep suspicions centred around, "they aren't telling us everything".

1. Terrorists make claims shortly after terrorism events to maximise the terror impact. No such claims have been made, apart from one online claim, from a previously-unknown group within China, that the Chinese have deemed a hoax.
More importantly, world intelligence agencies have picked up no increase in known terrorist groups "chatter" - a common happening immediately after a successful terrorist attack.

2. Of course, we "aren't being told everything"! All countries possess secretive defence agencies and installations, and they're not about to let it become public knowledge what they have, and what they are capable of.
Probably more importantly, they don't want it to become public knowledge, what they failed to pick up!

It is highly likely, that even if MH370 flew within range of a military radar, spying setup, or other military establishment, it wasn't picked up - due to lack of operator alertness, even perhaps even, unexpected downtime of the facility.

The simple facts remain that the aircraft most likely suffered a major electrical fault or power outage, or a rapid decompression caused by a cockpit fire or other reasons, leading to rapid crew incapacitation - and the aircraft flew on for an extended distance, well outside any radar coverage, before it finally splashed down in the vastness of the ocean.

Only those who have actually carried out SAR searches over the vastness of the oceans, fully understand how much even a large airliner becomes a "needle in a haystack" out there.

[nitpicker330]

Mmmmm 6 more hours fuel at 400 + kts is a big search area!!
If it did wander off on its own before flaming out...:eek:

[compressor stall]

That's my gut feeling Nitpicker.

They turned SW (smoke), DP, all incapacitated and kept going and going.

But have no answer why all went quiet on the comms front. If the electrics all died that transmit that stuff, surely the AP went out as well?

Malaysia and Indo would be understandably quiet on how an unexpected aircraft at FL 200 could transit undetected.

That's my least implausible theory anyway!

[VinnieC]

Tomnod has a campaign where you can look at sat. images taken on the day and tag anything suspicious

Crowdsourcing the Search for Malaysia Flight 370 - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/news/t/blogEntry?id=22853909)

[simon001]

Left field question for experienced SAR people out there:

We're approaching the end of 4 solid days of searching for a missing 777.

Accounting for the last transponder position, last radio call, first non responsive attempt to contact the aircraft and a possible catastrophic failure at FL350, the search area for the aircraft is large. Worse still, worst case, lest I suggest it, a hijacking attempt, initiated by killing the radio and transponder, diverting the aircraft, then something going wrong ending in a detonation that again lead to catastrophic failure, the search area could be at least 1,000,000 sq. miles.

At 450kts in the wrong direction, it doesn't take long to rack up some miles away from the original flight plan.

I have done SAR with the Civil Air Patrol in the US. I've seen wreckage and how hard it is to spot, flying almost right over the top of it. Possibly easier at sea, but I know how fatigue affects you sitting in the back staring out into a bland mass hour after hour.

At what point does such an operation scale down? I remember the Fossett search. The biggest US air search of all time. Two dozen planes over a relatively small area compared to MH370, and also at a more fine grained altitude. True, one would think it should be a lot easier the remains of a 777 at sea than a single engine plane in the mountains, but the fatigue of the search crews might be similar. At what point does the scale step down? After a week? Or, because of the need to find an answer, do we just keep going?

I am thinking the latter. We all want the black box for closure. But maybe SAR teams can chip in on the protocol. Or is this such an exceptional occurrence that it can't be answered?

[AEROMEDIC]

If went down in water, there WILL be debris, as there's a myriad of materials that will float or designed to float e.g. seat cushions.
If it went down on land, the night departure might limit witnesses and dense jungle will hide a lot.

Not that anyone here would not know that, or said it before, but just thought it was worth a reminder.

[JG1]

From known facts, the transponder was turned off, no radio comms received, and no crash in the area. This implies interference.

The one garbled transmission could have been sent during a struggle.

Its not guaranteed that this aircraft has crashed, or that any hijack went wrong.

What if the miscreants wanted an intact 777? They would have a suitably long and remote field prepared.

The cellphones ringing angle is interesting. Is it normal for a ringtone to be received upon calling a destroyed cellphone? It would be enlightening to know through which base station the calls were routed ... Last point of departure or somewhere else?

I wonder if Li Chi had anything to do with this?

[FairlieFlyer]

Helios 522 starting to sound similar esp with muffled last comms. Question is how certain it turned back

[Stanley11]

If the wreckage is on land and hidden by foliage, usage of Synthetic Aperture Radar would yield results. However, who offers that might be an issue.

[KeyPilot]

A FACT and an OPINION from me:

FACT: contrary to what has been reported by some here, AF447 wreckage was found only after 5 days, and was near to the last known position; thus, we are now currently still inside the timeframe for this accident, and the amount of time taken to find MH370 cannot be considered to be "unprecedented" or otherwise exceptional

OPINION: I am not impressed with the public face of the Malaysian search effort. Admittedly the operational side may be much better. Watching there press conference left me highly underwhelmed; specifically:
- no Powerpoint presentation summarising search activities - just a map and voiceover
- joking (highly inappropriate in circumstances) about appearance of those with with stolen passports; released that they were black only under questioning from journalists (if this was publicly releasable information, why not volunteer it?)
- no explanation as to why areas west of Malay peninsula being searched
- search areas have spaces between them; if it is possible that the aircraft is in any two given areas then it must follow (in the absence of other information, none of which has been released) that it can be in the area between them

I still believe it is most probable that the aircraft came down near its last known position; and that the failure to find wreckage so far is simply down to the (second world) searchers having missed it so far.

[nitpicker330]

The report from my colleagues CX Flt HK to KL was made last night around 1700 and I read about it this morning from the Aviation Herald, that was 11 hours ago..... They sent ships out today.....what did they find?

[[Steve]]

There have been numerous spottings of debris and "slicks" which have turned out to be something other than what is being searched for.

Is this area of ocean relatively littered with debris?

If so, and if the aircraft left little in the way of large floating pieces (this includes any option of the aircraft being outside the search area), then rather than looking for a needle in a haystack, the searchers might be trying to find a needle in a field of other needles.

[nitpicker330]

MH370: Logic says this isn't the mystery it's claimed to be | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/03/11/mh370-logic-says-this-isnt-mystery-its-claimed-to-be/)

[jcjeant]

Hi,

Keypilot
A FACT and an OPINION from me:
FACT: contrary to what has been reported by some here, AF447 wreckage was found only after 5 days, and was near to the last known position;
Another fact:
Yes 5 days after the beginning of the Phase 5 of search .. almost 2 years after the accident !!

[KeyPilot]

There have been numerous spottings of debris and "slicks" which have turned out to be something other than what is being searched for.

Is this area of ocean relatively littered with debris?

If so, and if the aircraft left little in the way of large floating pieces (this includes any option of the aircraft being outside the search area), then rather than looking for a needle in a haystack, the searchers might be trying to find a needle in a field of other needles.


One of the relatively few intelligent comments on this thread!

Yes I think this is one of the main reasons why this search didn't yield quick results

[Andu]

If this turns out to be terrorist-related, (still a big 'if' at this stage), those who are opining that the terrorists are 'breaking the usual rules' by not claiming responsibility probably should remember that the terrorists 'broke the usual rules' on Sept 11th 2001. Anyone old enough to have been in Aviation pre-Sept 2001 will recall the "don't resist, co-operate in every possible way" rules that were universal in every airline (with the possible exception of El Al and Korean Airlines) until the events of that Tuesday changed everything.

If this is terror-related, maintaining silence is proving remarkably effective, particularly while the wreckage remains not located. The mainstream media will eventually lose interest if nothing happens soon - (it would probably be a very different situation if 230 Americans had been involved, but let's not go there) - but the SAR effort will continue, downgraded, but in some form - and a considerable expense - until something is found. And then the real expense will start, particularly if a deep water recovery is involved.

Someone's said it before me - this could end end up costing a lot of governments and as many airlines huge amounts of money. Which means it will end up costing us, the travelling public, huge amounts of money as well.

If terrorists are involved, the aircraft - or more likely its wreck site - could be many thousands of miles away from the current search area.

[APLFLIGHT]

For our guest forum viewers, just to give an example of how quickly the situation can overcome a flight crew in case of a fire. (I do not directly speculate / cross-reference to this report in connection with flight MH370)

UPS Airlines Flight 6 Final accident report (source GCAA, PDF):

http://www.gcaa.gov.ae/en/ePublication/admin/iradmin/Lists/Incidents%20Investigation%20Reports/Attachments/40/2010-2010%20-%20Final%20Report%20-%20Boeing%20747-44AF%20-%20N571UP%20-%20Report%2013%202010.pdf

[philipat]

@keypilot

FACT: contrary to what has been reported by some here, AF447 wreckage was found only after 5 days, and was near to the last known position; thus, we are now currently still inside the timeframe for this accident, and the amount of time taken to find MH370 cannot be considered to be "unprecedented" or otherwise exceptional

Actually not a fact. The wreckage was spotted after TWO days but it took another 3 days to get vessels to the scene.

But if someone suggested 4 days after AF447 had disappeared, that it stalled at cruise altitude and was maintained in a stalled state by intentional control input until impact with the sea, this would have been dismissed as ludicrous.

That very scenario was correctly identified on this very Board.

[simon001]

As a pilot, I *think* we can discard a couple of theories suggested recently:

1. "Urgent", but not instantaneously critical situation, eventually leading to crash. If the aircraft had some kind of failure that eventually led to the aircraft descending and crashing, the pilots would have almost certainly made a mayday call. The first duty of any pilot is to deal with the situation at hand, "aviate", but once it is clear that the situation is serious, almost any professional pilot is going to take a few seconds to make a radio call in the blind. That is ingrained in training. We just do it. We've all had to do it at one stage or another coming up through our training. It's almost automatic and it doesn't stop you diagnosing the problem and taking action. Unless it is so bad that the plane is literally falling apart or you genuinely have lost all radio contact without notice, which would be highly unusual.

2. "Hypoxia". Once on autopilot, which the aircraft would have been in cruise at FL350, even an explosive depressurization would have left the plane in cruise all the way to Vietnam, at which point the transponder would have started responding to radar pings. And of course, worst case, the plane keeps cruising and runs out of fuel way up in mainland China. It's not just going to disappear.

Four search days have gone and there's no trace along the route of flight. An enormous aircraft. 12 year old 777 in calm weather from a carrier with a good safety record. I can't think of any more likely scenario, than, as much as I hate to suggest it, but it all points to...an instantanous catastrophic event, e.g. bomb.

All things considered and in the absence of any information, am I alone in thinking that this the most likely cause?

There is, on average, a handful every decade. Fortunately, almost all are prevented:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_airliner_bombing_attacks

When most people think of an airline bomb attack, I'd say they'd think of Lockerbie in 1988. Probably because it was Pan Am and a 747. But there's been a few since then.

I just can't think of a more likely scenario at this stage, however unfortunate. 777's have an exceptional track record.

[truantmuse]

I'm a SLF living in Malaysia with a brother who is a pilot with another airline in Malaysia.

I'm not certain if anyone has seen this piece of news yet about the search in the Straits of Malacca. thhttp://www.malaysiakini.com/news/256723

The source is Malaysiakini which is viewable on paid subscription. I've cut and pasted the article here ( I hope that is ok mods)


The search for Malaysian Airlines MH307 plane has been expanded to Sumatran waters, north of Straits of Malacca, as military radar may have detected the missing plane in the vicinity of Pulau Perak.

A Berita Harian report today quoted the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) as saying the plane may have reversed course further than expected while on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Air Force chief Rodzali Daud (left) is quoted as saying that based on military radar readings from its station in Butterworth, MH370 may have turned west after Kota Bahru and flew past the east coast and Kedah.

"The last time the plane was detected was near Pulau Perak, in the Straits of Malacca, at 2.40am," Berita Harian quotes Rodzali as saying.

This contradicts with earlier reports that the aircraft had disappeared from radar screens 120 nautical miles off Kota Bharu and over the South China Sea, at 1.30am on March 8.

The Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) had previously said the search for the Boeing 777-200ER aircraft, which is missing for the fourth day, had previously been focused around the waters between East Malaysia and Vietnam.

Berita Harian also said that military radar noted that the plane was flying about 1,000 metres lower than its original altitude of 10,000 metres after the about turn.

There are 227 passengers, including two infants, and 12 crew members on board the plane. Of these, 152 are Chinese nationals, 38 are Malaysians and the rest are from 12 other countries.

Meanwhile, Utusan Malaysia reported that 20,000 fishermen nationwide have been roped in to help in the search-and-rescue operation.

The newspaper quoted Agriculture and Agro-based Industries Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob as saying that this would involve 1,788 fishing boats around the waters off Kelantan, Terengganu, Perlis, Perak and Penang.

The fishermen were roped in at the request of acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein, Ismail said.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

Keypilot
FACT: contrary to what has been reported by some here, AF447 wreckage was found only after 5 days, and was near to the last known position; thus, we are now currently still inside the timeframe for this accident, and the amount of time taken to find MH370 cannot be considered to be "unprecedented" or otherwise exceptional
Indeed if the time taken for find MH370 go not over almost 2 years :} (time to find AF447) it will not be "unprecedented"

[valmont2]

Trying to keep some perspective...

Just for the search on the East side of Pensinsular Malaysia, at the quoted 100km radius search range from IGARI, spotting a seat cushion is the rough equivalent of spotting a grain of caster sugar in Central Park.

MH seats are often blue (not always - I have no idea for this a/c), so consider the sugar in Central Park might be colored green or brown to get this in some perspective of what the SAR guys are looking for.

Even assuming there are a couple of hundred seat cushions and similar size debris, that's a spilled packet of sugar in Central Park, and quite spread out after a couple of days of drifting.

[CodyBlade]

The Press briefing is becoming a farce.

Stop giggling and laughing!

Think of the families..

[porterhouse]

an instantanous catastrophic event, e.g. bomb.
The only problem with this theory (or any 'explosion') is that it spreads a lot of debris, more floating debris the higher the altitude. Unless they search in wrong places - no debris so far.

[hamster3null]

Actually not a fact. The wreckage was spotted after TWO days but it took another 3 days to get vessels to the scene

I made this exact mistake. This is not quite accurate; while some sort of debris were located shortly after the accident, their attribution to AF447 was later retracted, and first pieces confidently identified as belonging to AF447 were only found 5 days after the accident.

However, the key difference between AF447 and MH370 is that AF447 went down completely off the radar. People searching for AF447 had a huge area, ~400 nm in diameter, to work with, and there were lots of pieces of unrelated rubble within this area. The initial search for MH370 was based on the assumption that the aircraft (or a large part of it) disintegrated at the moment when all transmissions from both transponders ceased. If this were the case, we would've found some debris, the lesson of AF447 notwithstanding. If MH370 went down in a two-phase event, with the transponder and the ADS-B transmitter shut down a one point and the aircraft disintegrating at some different point, the debris could be almost anywhere.

[aergid]

Maybe I am being a little naive here, but.....

Why are Commercial Airliners not fitted with SLBs (Sonic Locator Beacons)?

Would this not make SAR Ops of this type easier at a relatively low price....

[chucko]

The police IG at the presser live at the moment (0715) says the known Iranian lad with the stolen passport (and his buddy) were most likely asylum seekers, not terrorists. When he didn't show up at FRA, mom called the authorities.

[Frenchwalker]

It was already stated this morning that the two Iranians were trying to get to Europe via china and that they have been identified

[Bobman84]

The Press briefing is becoming a farce.

Stop giggling and laughing!

Think of the families..

Agreed.

Very unprofessional and even sarcasm from the police minister / commander.

[Ollie Onion]

Several news sites now carrying reports about several different fisherman reporting a 'low flying' aircraft moving very fast just off the Malay coast. One fisherman saying that the lights were about the 'size of coconuts' which is why he knew it was very low. Apparently these reports are why the search area has now been expanded to include areas of land.

It would appear that they really have no idea what general area this aircraft went down in.

If indeed this was the aircraft flying low back towards Malaysia then it must be a deliberate act to turn around, descend and then crash the aircraft...... of course these reports could be completely false as eye witnesses are historically very very bad sources when it comes to aircraft accidents.

[alph2z]

Since they are looking west of Malaysia I suspect they have ACARS data. But why is it kept so secret, or don't have any data, is a mystery.

Malaysian officials non-committal on MH370 ACARS transmissions - 3/11/2014 - Flight Global (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/malaysian-officials-non-committal-on-mh370-acars-transmissions-396857/)

.... acting transport minister Hishamuddin Hussein, he instead embarked on one of the search and rescue flights looking for the aircraft in the Straits of Malacca on Malaysia’s west coast.

Media reports have said that no ACARS data was received from the aircraft when its transponder disappeared from radar ....

... "All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with continuous data monitoring system called ACARS which transmits data automatically," says MAS. "Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed."

Presumably the aircraft would have transmitted ACARS data prior to its disappearance, but an industry source familiar with ACARS says this would be entirely dependent on the level of service ...

[p.j.m]

Was MH370 equipped to send ACARS data stream - if so to whom, the airline, Boeing?

ACARS is "broadcast" and unencrypted, anyone can receive and decode the messages.

[VR-HFX]

Quite some number of pages back I made a post that has disappeared as completely as MH370.

The initial press release from MH stated clearly that the a/c lost contact with Subang ATC at 0240 local time. This was also posted on page 1 of this thread. It has not been redacted to the best of my knowledge.

The transponder supposedly stopped at 0121 local. One hour and twenty minutes creates a rather large search area from the point at which the transponder ceased transmitting.

Clearly something is known that has not been shared yet.

[gulab100]

Is it possible that the entire flight from KL was on the wrong heading? is this the reason why the search in Mallacca Strait?

No offense intended.

[alanda]

Frenchwalker: two Iranians

Two Iranians? I thought the one using the Italian passport had been established as an African - I don't know what nationality.

I first looked at this thread when there was just the very first post and nothing else. Sadly, I don't think it's just press briefings which are descending into farce. So many circular discussions, spiralling down...

[armchairpilot94116]

Ci 611 inflight breakup:

The wreckage was discovered quite quickly, while this one is very unusual.

ASN Aircraft accident Boeing 747-209B B-18255 Penghu islands, Taiwan [Taiwan Strait] (http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20020525-0)

China Airlines Flight 611 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611)

[Up Down Around]

Personally I'm inclined to the "Helios" theory that that the crew became incapacitated in some way.

In other words, it's happened before and could happen again...hypoxia leading to confusion, unconsciousness and ultimately impact with the ground.

Having worked "on the ground" in various parts of Cambodia and Vietnam I am very aware that there are some extremely remote regions that are deeply forested. Just as an example, I was familiar with Ratanakiri province in eastern Cambodia.

It may sound unlikely, but at night, it could just be possible for a 777 to come down without being 'noticed'.

I don't know to what extent these areas are being searched?

[truantmuse]

I'm not certain if this piece if news has been mentioned here but Berita Harian, a Malay language daily in Malaysia is reporting that flight MH370 did indeed turn back from the SCS. The RMAF chief Rodzali Daud is quoted as saying that the last time the flight was detected by military radar, was at 2.40 am and somewhere around Pulau Perak (Perak Island) north of the straits of Malacca. It was flying at 1,000 metres lower than its 10,000 metres altitude when it turned back. Apparently the Singapore ATC also detected the plane.

The source: Berita Harian | Operasi SAR ke Selat Melaka (http://www.bharian.com.my/bharian/articles/OperasiSARkeSelatMelaka/Article)

I don't know how credible the news is but MalaysiaKini is also reporting it.

[Passagiata]

Has that debris, photographed by pax on flight to KL at 06.40 Beijing on Monday, between Vung Tau and Brunei been discounted ? :confused:

I think you're referring to the "debris" that was photographed over land and was electric lighting.

[ETOPS]

I'm surprised we haven't heard much from Rolls Royce. They have an engine data monitoring service which should have a readout from this flight...

Live monitoring helps engine manufacturers track performance - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/8111075/Live-monitoring-helps-engine-manufacturers-track-performance.html)

[Acute Instinct]

http://www.globaltimes.cn/Portals/0/attachment/2011/3d1310e7-0e48-4e95-9ca9-956175070a5c.jpg (http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=j6ZdJ3BltWgWjM&tbnid=zVEAlIkWioTPVM:&ved=0CAYQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.globaltimes.cn%2FDesktopModules%2FDnnFo rge%2520-%2520NewsArticles%2FPrint.aspx%3Ftabid%3D99%26tabmoduleid%3D 94%26articleId%3D794536%26moduleId%3D405%26PortalID%3D0&ei=BsIeU6jQB4yOlQX8vID4Cg&bvm=bv.62788935,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNGyXy8HQ1P2UeMNHACUNsNIE4DUSg&ust=1394610882638440)


Notice the lack of debris in the water in this shot? There is none. Hundreds of photos on google and not one piece of debris in the water. Clean as a whistle. The entire tail section is clean off and it landed in the water. All doors still closed and intact. You can bet if it wasn't sitting on the reef, it would be on the bottom of the ocean without a trace......This one lacked a mayday call as well......Could the tail section have parted company with the fuselage?

[Ockham]

Am i right in saying the 777 comms are located on the centre pedestal? If so could an electrical fire beneath the panels disable VHF and transponder?

[747SP5]

The 'debris' was not over land according to this -
Aerial Photos of Unidentified Objects Off Vietnam's Coast


A passenger on a Beijing to Kuala Lumpur flight on the morning of March 9 photographed unidentified objects off the southern coast of Vietnam. The approximate location of the photograph places it to the north of the area being searched for debris from the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370

The time stamps suggest they were taken in sequence, at approximately 6:40am Beijing time on March 9. This matches the flight path and time. The internal airplane map shows the airplane placed off the southern tip of Vietnam.

[airxp]

"Also raising doubts about the possibility of an attack, the United States extensively reviewed imagery taken by spy satellites for evidence of a mid-air explosion, but saw none, a US government source said. The source described US satellite coverage of the region as thorough."

Read more: Malaysia Airline's flight probe finds scant evidence of attack (http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-probe-finds-scant-evidence-of-attack-20140311-hvhgg.html#ixzz2vdgmzXH7)

I light of the above info is it possible bomb may not be the cause.

[porterhouse]

Notice the debris in the water in this shot? That's right, there is none,
Sorry, the fact that you don't see any debris on this photo doesn't mean there is none, photo is at too oblique angle to spot any floating debris. Poor example.

[mickk]

Images and interviews have just been shown on Australian TV of two girls invited to spend the entire flight in the cockpit of a Malaysian Airways flight. Ths copilot was the same one on the MH370 flight.

Smoking ciggies, posing for snaps with girls, both were plucked out of the queue by the pilot and copilot and invited to spend the flight in the cockpit.

Air steward took them into the cockpit, helped to fold out jump seats.

Pilot was palm reading one of the girls, commenting on nail polish.

Fariq Abdul Hamid is his name.

They are very pretty girls, they say the pilots seemd in control the whole flight. Dec 13 2011.

[nitpicker330]

Ok so what has this got to do with it?:=

[sarabande]

(perhaps stoopid) question from frequent PAX.

If deliberate / accidental cut-off of all signalling/monitoring equipment occurs, would that same cause stop control of the pressurisation system ?

Thus, cut/off of electrical control occurs (which is instantaneous) followed by fairly gradual (1 to 2 minutes ??) of loss of cabin/cockpit pressure and oxygen, resulting in incapacity of whover was in the cockpit at the time.

[35hPA28]

1 - Contrary to what Holywood would have us believe, a primary radar screen can be quite messy at times and much skill is needed to produce a valid interpretation of what one sees. Even more so at the fringes of the equipment range. It may well be the case that some radar operator is "not quite sure" of seeing an unexpected return around that time in a westward direction. Malaysian authorities are under a lot of pressure (at least, a lot of attention) to show some results and maybe shooting in both directions makes sense, but claiming that the plane turned back only to find it further down the intended track the next day would look bad, as would look bad to concentrate search efforts in the Gulf of Thailand and find the fuselage much later in the opposite body of water. Hence the ambiguity in saying that some things can be told, some can't.

2 - It was a very sophisticated operation dreamed about in some think room in some powerful nation-state at some point in time and then filed, to be used later when needed, so as to divert world attention from more pressing matters...

[Weheka]

Notice the debris in the water in this shot? That's right, there is none,


Also, how long after the crash was the photo taken? Any debris is probably washed up on shore, which is only a few feet away.

[rhanson]

They are very pretty girls, they say the pilots seemd in control the whole flight. Dec 13 2011.

Come on, seriously? Your post could at least have dignified his career and accomplishments. Ffs.

[p.j.m]

Images and interviews have just been shown on Australian TV of two girls invited to spend the entire flight in the cockpit of a Malaysian Airways flight. Ths copilot was the same one on the MH370 flight.

oh please - A Current Affair?

Half the photos they showed as "evidence" showed buildings in the background. Bit difficult to explain those at 35,000 feet eh??

[philipat]

The transponder supposedly stopped at 0121 local. One hour and twenty minutes creates a rather large search area from the point at which the transponder ceased transmitting.

I think they were using ALL Local times and, as you know, Vietnam in one hour BEHIND KUL. Zulu times would have been less confusing.

[Sky Fan99]

I'm not sure it was established one of the 2 was african. I believe at the earlier news conference said he looked similar to the soccer player.

Many Iranians from the south, as well as many arabs look very dark and some look very similar to being black.

[ETOPS]

The Malaysian Airforce - TUDM - has a fighter base at Gong Kelak. It's near the coast just south of Kota Bharu. It hosts No 11 Sqdn which operates Su-30 Flankers - you would have thought there would be air defence radar there which would have "seen" a 777 passing close by (along with other traffic)

Is this radar recorded?

[Bobman84]

Woman raises questions about cockpit behaviour (http://aca.ninemsn.com.au/article/8812646/woman-raises-questions-about-cockpit-behaviour)

Meanwhile, I'm interested to see the findings of the most recent eyewitnesses (fishermen).

[Australopithecus]

Can you access the ACARS c/b on the flight deck? The earlier Boeings that I have flown all sported c/b panels but that (idiotic) youtube 777 MEC video has me wondering.

Interesting to note that the fishermen's accounts mention the aircraft lights, suggesting the 777 had electrics available. (Or it was some other fast moving low level aircraft...fighter?)

[JayG_Bull]

I found that story utter disrespectful to Fariq and his family.

That's what Australia does, finds the worst in people.

The key point in the story was the girls felt as though they were completely safe and did their job as they should have. Also, I did not see one picture with them in the air but one with the captain.

I feel as though this story showing how much of a caring person he is, is a much better sentiment:

MISSING MH370: First officer Fariq cared and loved my many - Latest - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-first-officer-fariq-cared-and-loved-my-many-1.507409)

P.S. They were flying in a 767 it appears from the pictures. Different aircraft type, different and more training since 2011. I'm sure he was an excellent pilot. Must look at the positives.

[StormyKnight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BibskYkCMAA4pbB.jpg

One man using stolen passport on ill-fated Malaysian jetliner confirmed as a 19yo Iranian

https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/443301561725636610/photo/1

[Network]

At the risk of going over old ground…….my apologies in advance, but here is my two bits worth….

The three confusing issues or facts (unless the authorities are not revealing the full information, as suspected or insinuated elsewhere) are:-

1) No comms from the crew – no mayday, no request for deviation from altitude or track (it is just possible that they may have still had selected Lumpur VHF control frequency – before getting to IGARI to change over to HCM, and actually did make some initial radio calls but the aircraft position was at the extreme range of Lumpur control).

2) No ACARS messages of any serviceability issues with the aircraft. Or more likely, there were some ACARS messages delivered to MAS maintenance control, but MAS have not been able to make sense of them – and are thus not willing to release them to the public. In other words, the messages, (and it is highly likely that there were more than one), does not fit any logical scenario – a la AF447, the actual scenario of the crew stalling the aircraft and then keeping it stalled, (by sustained crew input on the flight controls, all the way to the surface), would have been rejected out of hand even with all of the STATUS messages that AF had received.

3) No debris found – this has been covered ad-nauseum already.


Simon001 in Post #1648, and others, allude to a bomb – a scenario that fits with the above, unless MAS are sitting on some ACARS messages – particularly if their transmission occurred over a period of time – ie the problem was not instantaneous. Even if MAS are not releasing the ACARS message(s) to the public, I cannot believe that they would keep all of the countries, and relevant SAR authorities therein, in the dark about it. Particularly so the Chinese, with the majority of the pax.

Conversely, if MAS are NOT sitting on any ACARS messages then it beggars belief that they would not publically state as much, leading to the rather blameless conclusion (from the MAS point of view) of a bomb event.

Given all of the above, I do not think it was a bomb event.

So, if not a bomb what is the next most likely scenario (speculation here – running the analytic risk of AF447, without all of the FDR and Voice recorder data)?

Assuming that ACARS messages actually were transmitted by the aircraft, they are not straightforward or logical – in the sense that it cannot immediately be concluded or logically considered – to explain:-

· What was the actual single event that must have triggered the flow of messages?, together with
· What was the likely crew response to such an event?.

Given that there have been no suggestions to date of “pilot error” (the usual and handy suspect) from any source, then I suspect it must be quite difficult to make sense of the ACARS messages transmitted by the aircraft.

I would expect that an electrical fire of sorts in the E&E compartment or on the flight deck would/could make various systems unserviceable (including the left/all VHF radios), leading to the transmission of various ACARS messages. The crew would be faced with an acute emergency, and whilst dealing with it, are forced to revert to manual flight (the turn back alluded to by the Malaysian authorities). Either the radios have been rendered inop or the crew workload is so high in the smoke environment that no radio calls are made by the crew.

With an electrical fire raging under floor or on the flight deck, eventually a vital piece of equipment is burnt through or the crew are overcome. By this stage the aircraft could be heading in any direction, but clearly the Malaysian authorities have concluded that it had headed back over the Malay peninsula and, somehow, ended up in the Malacca straits.

Unlikely scenario perhaps –, but so was the AF447 and the Asiana SFO accident.

[Passagiata]

When he didn't show up at FRA, mom called the authorities.

The fact that "Mom was expecting him" doesn't preclude a terrorist attack.

[MartinM]

Nonetheless, ACARS data proved crucial for gaining an early understanding of Air France flight AF447, which crashed 1 June 2009. Within three days of this aircraft’s disappearance investigators released ACARS data, revealing that the aircraft had transmitted a number of failure reports for various aircraft systems.

ACARS revealed indeed what was going on, on the way down to the ocean. But keep in mind that ACARS data was initially leaked by an AF engineer to the internet and not through official channels. And if you go back in time, AF officials said initially that the ACARS messages proves nothing with regards what happened on AF447. Only month later, everybody was talking about ACARS.

Now with regards to ACARS on B777. Here some insights specific to a B777. B737 for instance is less sophisticated.

ACARS managment Unit (MU) is connected to a 115V BUS and to the 28V Battery BUS (B737/B777)
ACARS MU send over VHF (B737/B777) and over satelite (B777)
ACARS MU collects all vital data of the aicraft (B737/B777)
ACARS MU has downlink (B737/B777) and uplink (B777) connection
ACARS MU connect to each system independantly going over separate BUS (B737/B777)
ACARS MU has two independant, redunant fiberchannels for connecting to mentioned systems below and individual power source (B777). This is the "SAFEBus"

ACARS collect data from: (B737)
Flight Data Unit
FMS

ACARS collects information from: (B777)
Flight Management
Display
Central Maintenance
Airplane Condition Monitoring
Communication Management (including flight deck communication)
Data Conversion Gateway (ARINC 429/629 Conversion

Additional ACARS allows Airline HQ to upload/download data from the EFB (Electronic Fligtht Bag)

With regards to MH370 and ACARS, there are two options
a. Malaysian Airlines offcials are telling us not all they know
b. All ACARS related systems were destroyed immediately, otherwise it would have been sending data as it send over multiple channels.

Cheers
Martin

[NigelOnDraft]

Can you access the ACARS c/b on the flight deck?As detailed above, you do not need to deactivate "ACARS" as a system. All you need to do is prevent it transmitting...

On some types, just switch VHF3 from "data" to use it as a radio - ACARS cannot now communicate. I imagine if you turn off the Satellite link you'll get rid of that route as well...

NoD

[dicks-airbus]

Do Malaysian enrypt the ACARS messages, like some others? The header however is transmitted unencrypted always. Afaik the frequency is asia is 131,550 and can be recorded by anyone who has the equipment. Maybe someone has done this already?

[acatal]

the last press release from the airline included this statement regarding ACARS:

" All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with continuous data monitoring system called the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which transmits data automatically. Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed."

[rh200]

Question for anyone who knows.

If there was an electrical issue, such as short or fire, would ACARS not start sending out some faults? Being that most electrical issues are not short time scale events. By that I'm going on about heat to fire time scales.

[Dumbo Jet]

Network

If the second scenario you have described is a possibility - why is there no radar tracking of the plane. I realise that the transponder was not transmitting so there was no identification as a civilian aircraft but surely an object like this is exactly what military radar is programmed to track. ie an object which is not transmitting an identification signal. Then surely they would know where to search, not the splattergun approach that is currently occurring.

[silverstrata]

Nitpicker.

Planetalking blog comment:
MH370: Logic says this isn't the mystery it's claimed to be | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/03/11/mh370-logic-says-this-isnt-mystery-its-claimed-to-be)



Good article. But it begs the question why the authorities would be holding back on the information.

One possibility is the plane was hijacked and they thought it was going to be used as a missile, so they shot it down. That might cause some reticence to talk about it. The lack of flotsam and debris would then be because they are not telling us where it ended up.

[Acute Instinct]

Of course they haven't considered a water landing, people are too busy being told what to think. The Lion Air plane was pounded by surf, multiple tide cycles, and pushed hundreds of metres along a reef over 4 or 5 days and still held on to its contents........

[Australopithecus]

Nigel on Draft...that's why I asked for a 777 guy to answer. I know first hand about 737/747/330/340 etc.

On at least two of those you cannot access the c/b in flight, NOR CAN YOU SELECT VOX ON COM 3

On the 737 and 747 switching 3 to vox does not lock it there necessarily...some radio options default back to data after a few minutes.

See now why I wanted a definitive 777 answer?

[chuks]

It's a bit depressing, seeing the way this has become a huge guessing game since there's very little hard information available.

What part of "Just wait until the wreckage is located, so that the information from the FDR and CVR can be read and evaluated," is so hard to understand?

[tartare]

As sleazy and low rent sensationalist trash as `A Current Affair' may be - that's a story, and an important one.
There's no way those girls should have been on the flight deck under any circumstances.

[StormyKnight]

Good article. But it begs the question why the authorities would be holding back on the information.

One possibility is the plane was hijacked and they thought it was going to be used as a missile, so they shot it down. That might cause some reticence to talk about it. The lack of flotsam and debris would then be because they are not telling us where it ended up.

Shot down would mean a visible missile especially at night, but what if the crew/passengers crashed it knowing what was happening. If the authorities have deduced this possibility they still haven't deduced where it happened. Why else would they be looking in the north Malacca Strait?

[Heathrow Flyer]

No ACARS messages of any serviceability issues with the aircraft. Or more likely, there were some ACARS messages delivered to MAS maintenance control, but MAS have not been able to make sense of them – and are thus not willing to release them to the public.

According to Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/us-malaysia-airlines-idUSBREA291D520140310):
"There were no signals from ACARS from the time the aircraft disappeared," a source involved in the investigations said.

Although Malaysian (http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html) are less specific:
All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with continuous data monitoring system called the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which transmits data automatically. Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed.

[Heliads]

one can regularly spot the Paracels from altitude, on a clear day, along this route (seen them myself @ FL35 and from average sea level). If I was an MH Skipper rehearsing scenario on Sim. then I may have considered this contingency. Must admit though, there was quite a few Vietnamiese fishing vessels at that location last time I was there at sea level.

[Hempy]

If we suppose that at the instant the FR24 return gives a 0ft reading that some structural damage has been done, what are the pilot's likely reaction?


Surely if the plane is still flying, a descent to below 10,000ft is done.
Then a turn towards the nearest possible landing area or airport.


So which way would he have gone? Draw a line from the FR24 0ft location and search along that line, would seem to be the most likely to find where he went.

Your original supposition is flawed. There are several reasons for the last couple off ADS-B alt readouts to be zero, but it's generally from some form of packet loss. This includes switching the txdr off..

[172driver]

In my mind it's becoming glaringly obvious that only part of the available information is being made public.

ACARS - well, MA don't really say, do they?
RR maintenance center - dead silent on the issue, although they must know the timeline.
Boeing - possibly same as RR, depending on contract with MA

I'm not normally given to conspiracy theories, but I increasingly feel something bad happened that involved one of the powers that jostle for control of these waters in one way or another. And this takes a while to sort out behind the scenes....

IMHO all the talk about fake passports is a red herring - two asylum seekers who hoped for a better life and found an untimely death. The group who missed the flight - forget about it, happens every day.

I doubt we'll ever know the full story.

[Broomstick Flier]

After reading with interest all the thread, must say that I am not an advocate of the terror act theories, it sounds too far fetched and the stolen passports looks more a coincidence than anything else.

On the other hand, it just occured to me that not long time ago Egypt Air had an emergency, on the ground fortunately, with an oxygen fire in the flight deck, eventually the airframe was written-off and by the photos I have seen, on the final report IIRC, the damage was quite extensive.

What are the odds of such an event happening again with MH370? I don't have the Egypt Air's report handy, but I guess some recomendation for parts change/inspection was made concerning the oxy system.

Just a thought

[MartinM]

ACARS MU switches automatically between the VHF and SATCOM. Indeed the pilot can change VHF3 from DATA (default settings) to VOICE. But ACARS MU would then switch to SATCOM which there is no reference to a switch in cockpit to turn that off. At least I haven't found one ;)

B777 ACARS can communicate on text basis with ATC. Pilots can transmitt/confirm/receive messages trough ACARS ATC. This in case that there is a voice failure.

ACARS of the B777 is highly sophisticated. It is much more than a dummy text transmission tool.

[xgjunkie]

Valujet 592 hit the everglades near vertically at high speed after a cargo fire, virtually nothing was found on the surface, the largest piece of wreckage was the size of a football.

I still think this is a serious fire possibly from the cargo deck that happened to knock out comms first. I assume comms and ACARS etc still have to run down wiring to aerials on the hull. Why couldnt that wiring have been interrupted by fire before ACARS was aware of it.
For there to be very little debris in shallow waters then this aircraft cannot have broken up in flight otherwise debris would be floating everywhere. I suspect the airframe went into the sea intact, whether controlled ditching with rapid sinking or a high velocity impact. Who knows.

[rachcollins]

The Malacca Strait is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, at the beginning of this century it had a huge problem with piracy which resulted in LLoyds adding a 1% risk surcharge to shipping travelling through it.


Huge measures were taken by Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia to rectify the problem. Radar coverage was greatly increased and patrols were stepped up in the area.


Piracy has reduced markedly since those measures were introduced, but is still a problem, I believe an oil tanker was hijacked just last year.


Could the increased search activity in the Malacca Strait be the result of unidentified radar returns which have come to light after reviewing marine radar footage at a later date ???


I'm not overly familiar with the maritime radar systems which are employed in that region, but I would assume they would have the capability of detecting low flying aircraft. I know in the UK the marine radar coverage of the English Channel is used for just that purpose.


Having conducted business in Asia in the past I am well aware of the importance of " Saving Face " You only have to look at Fukushima to understand just what sort of lengths people will go to too save face.


Is it feasible that the Malaysian Airforce are embarrassed that MH370 managed to overfly the country without being detected, could that be the reason for not disclosing that primary radar returns were detected by the Navy in the Malaccan Strait ???


I would find it very hard to believe that such a localised search would be taking place in the Strait without some sort of evidence that the plane may have been in the area, but I'm baffled as to why they wouldn't disclose such information.

[Ian W]

The terror organisations recognise that the sure way to win the current war they're waging against the West is to use the Ronald Reagan ploy of making the war simply too expensive for the other side to wage. If this turns out to be a terroist attack, it's clever, particularly if it can be repeated.

Someone, be it a terrorist who forced his way into the cockpit or a pilot who has been recruited or forced to co-operate with the terrorists, had to have enough knowledge of the 777 to know which nav and comm. functions to disable - and in a very short time - to cause it to disappear (in an electronic sense) in a matter of seconds. After that, it's just a question of getting the aircraft a long way away from the commonsense search area before ditching it or flying it deliberately into the sea to destroy it. (When your foot soldiers are willing to die for the cause, the possibilities that can be employed are endless.)

The effect of two or three similar disappearances will be huge. The incredible expense, both to governments and airlines, in just trying to find the missing hull, will eventually become crippling; the drop off in passengers, as airline travel becomes something less than 100% safe in the public's perception, will hurt the airlines' bottom line; the increased security measures will make airline travel an even more painful experience than it has become since 2001.

All will end up making travel very, very expensive, which means the bad guys will have won, for without easy and cheap air travel, Western society will not be what it has become over the last fifty years.

Or of course self powered uploads of FDR/CVR/CvideoR with a GPS position and Timestamp direct to 'the cloud' could be added at relatively little cost compared to the cost of almost a shutdown of transoceanic flight. As I posted earlier - this has gone beyond concerns about unethical management wanting to watch you pick your nose in the cockpit. Had there been a record to the cloud system on this aircraft there would be closure for the several hundred relatives, the reason for the aircraft going down could well be known as it would have been found already.

[BDiONU]

B777 ACARS can communicate on text basis with ATC. Pilots can transmitt/confirm/receive messages trough ACARS ATC. This in case that there is a voice failure.? ATC barely know about ACARS, it's an airline tool. There is nowhere in any ATC centre/tower I've worked at that displays ACARS text.
CPDLC is a whole different ball of wax.

[GunpowderPlod]

MH370 detected above Malacca Straits at 2.40am (http://my.news.yahoo.com/mh370-detected-above-malacca-straits-2-40am-062617741.html)

[Mr Good Cat]

ACARS MU switches automatically between the VHF and SATCOM. Indeed the pilot can change VHF3 from DATA (default settings) to VOICE. But ACARS MU would then switch to SATCOM which there is no reference to a switch in cockpit to turn that off. At least I haven't found one

B777 ACARS can communicate on text basis with ATC. Pilots can transmitt/confirm/receive messages trough ACARS ATC. This in case that there is a voice failure.

ACARS of the B777 is highly sophisticated. It is much more than a dummy text transmission tool.

Martin M... check FCOM 5.40.98

You can deselect ACARS satellite transmissions on the ACARS Manager page of the COMM>MANAGER menu of the MFD. A simple mouse click, but there should be no reason to do so unless they misread the bulletin about loss of VHF Datalink on BP V15... which is digressing as no relevance and only confusing this thread.

Also, an in-flight DATALINK reset should not reset OMS and EICAS maint downlinks.

[Ian W]

Aside from the Payne Stewart Learjet incident there has been another prominent case of crew and PAX being knocked out by hypoxia. Helios Airways flight 522 in 2005, a Boeing 737.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

The problem was simply that the pressurisation system was set to "manual" instead of "automatic". The 737 flew on auto until fuel was empty and crashed.

In case of MH370 I wonder where it would have ended up in such a scenario. For sure it would have gone far, but it should have attracted attention somewhere on the way?

Hypoxia would not switch off the ADS and SSR transponders. In all the cases of hypoxia and crew incapacitation I have read, the aircraft carried on with no problem squawking as normal. Just no-one answered the RT.

[Wirbelsturm]

Mr Good Cat,


Sadly there are many 'black hole' areas where you will get the 'Datalink unavailable' EICAS on both SATCOM datalink and VHF datalink.


Temporary ACARS datalink losses are very common, across Siberia/Mongolia you can lose it for 10-15 minutes.


This is a very confusing loss, much like the AF loss. Once the aircraft has been located then I'm sure there will be a lot to learn.


As to smoking/visitors in the flight deck that is very much up to the airline and the operating authority. In my airline it is forbidden to have visitors in flight and to smoke. On many other airlines those restrictions do not exist. Do you know, specifically the SOP's for Malaysian Airlines? I don't.

[SOPS]

On the 777, to have the pressurisation in manual and not realise it, is extremely hard. Much harder than on the 737. ( I have flown both all variations of both types). I don't believe the thing depressurised and the crew were unaware of it.

[compressor stall]

Rachcollins
Having conducted business in Asia in the past I am well aware of the importance of " Saving Face " You only have to look at Fukushima to understand just what sort of lengths people will go to too save face.

Is it feasible that the Malaysian Airforce are embarrassed that MH370 managed to overfly the country without being detected, could that be the reason for not disclosing that primary radar returns were detected by the Navy in the Malaccan Strait ???

I have that feeling too. It's a quite plausible scenario.

Though it doesn't explain lack of comms / elt / ACARS etc. But then again no likely theory fits the current available evidence.

[al_renko]

Looking at the planefinder.net at 17:20 local time MH370 leaves the screen,the only other aircraft close by is china eastern airlines flight 5093.

[Mahatma Kote]

MH370 detected above Malacca Straits at 2.40am (http://my.news.yahoo.com/mh370-detected-above-malacca-straits-2-40am-062617741.html)

2:40 am - exactly the same time the original reports said it was declared missing. Too coincidental!

More likely this is a journalist who's conflating different stories. 9:1 says this story dies an inglorious death.

Also I'm sure some pilots can comment on the flight time from the last reported position and time to Pulau Perak. It looks like a very slow flight to me.

[Nightingale14]

The engine manufacturers live engine monitoring service was not activated on MH370 press reports state.

[Sober Lark]

The MAS series of dangerously low fuel emergencies into Heathrow lead to bare faced denials and cover ups by MAS. UK authorities couldn't rely on assurances given and in the end had to insist that MAS provided weekly reports on fuel levels of aircraft arriving into the UK as a condition of being allowed to fly there.


With the present incident on home soil you'll find commercial aviation and military interests are far too buddy buddy to expect leaks to filter into the public domain.

[ETOPS]

Now we are getting somewhere..

Air Force chief Rodzali Daud ( left ) is quoted as saying that based on military radar readings from its station in Butterworth, MH370 may have turned west after Kota Bahru and flew past the east coast and Kedah.

"The last time the plane was detected was near Pulau Perak, in the Straits of Malacca, at 2.40am," Berita Harian quotes Rodzali as saying.

[eprn1n2]

To the guy who wondered if an AD was every issued in response to the Egpytair cockpit fire. Yes, there appears to be one on record.

The Boeing Company Airplanes (http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgAD.nsf/AOCADSearch/AC791D520194D58086257A39004970DE?OpenDocument)

Was this airframe in compliance with this AD? :confused:

[HeathrowAirport]

The B777-200 aircraft that operated MH370 underwent maintenance 10 days before this particular flight on 6 March 2014. The next check is due on 19 June 2014. The maintenance was conducted at the KLIA hangar and there were no issues on the health of the aircraft.

The aircraft was delivered to Malaysia Airlines in 2002 and have since recorded 53,465.21 hours with a total of 7525 cycles. All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with continuous data monitoring system called the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which transmits data automatically. Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed.

[ETOPS]

Well it explains why the search is now to the west.

I'm sure the Airforce know more than they are admitting.

[ETOPS]

If you plot the possible track from Kl towards IGARI then a left turn to Pulau Perak it forms a partial anti clockwise turn around the air defence base at Gong Kedak.

What exactly do the Malaysians know.....

[glenbrook]

Anyone wondering why there is so little information on this lost a/c should look to the recent admission by Malaysian civil aviation chief "There are some things that I can tell you and some things that I can't."

In this part of the world, which I know well, one of the key priorities for any investigation is to ensure that national loss of face is minimized. This means that if the Malaysians have a better idea of where to to look they are going to do their utmost to find the a/c before they share any of this information with the public, let alone the other countries participating in the search. It would be a huge embarrassment to them if say a Chinese frigate were to find the plane first. If there is any hint of error on behalf of the Malaysian flight crew, say from an ACARS message, then I am sure this will not be shared until the a/c is found.

It is all very well to try to dream up scenarios where a plane vanishes without visible debris, but the most likely explanation to my mind is that the SAR are not coordinated internationally.

The same goes for the Vietnamese and Chinese. If they have promising leads, then there is a strong possibility they will not share this information, at least not in a timely manner. Furthermore, if something is found, the information must flow all the way to the top before it is shared, even within an individual agency.

[Capt Kremin]

As flagged earlier, the Malaysian authorities HAVE been withholding information.

The last time the plane was detected was near Pulau Perak, in the Straits of Malacca, at 2.40am," Berita Harian quotes Rodzali as saying.

Pulau Perak (Pulau means "island") is approximately 85 NM WNW of Penang Airport.

The terrorism theory is fast losing traction so what we are left with is a, currently inexplicable, action by the flight crew.

[compressor stall]

Anyone else noticed that Pulau Perak doesn't exist at its lat/long on Google Earth? There's a 16km square of different - blurred - resolution image.

Its obviously an island of some strategic importance with radar installation and military activity (military chopper crash there last year).

[Che Xindamail]

The complete lack of traces, debris or witnesses can only mean one thing, hijacking. Turn off the transponder, pull the ACARS cb's, and you are invisible to all but military primary radar. Descend low and not even they will see you. You are now in a fully functioning aircraft with astounding navigational capability, but invisible to the world. Where do you want to go?

The search area should be a seven hour fuel endurance radius of last known position. Since no ELT has gone off means it didn't crash, it landed. Remote airfields in China? Indonesia? Philippines? It means you must know how to navigate and land a 777. How many pilots in the world have undergone 777 training? Even just simulator training would suffice. 5000?

Looking forward to your thoughts.

[StormyKnight]

Pulau Perak is the western-most part of Malaysia and has various civil and military structures on it including a lighthouse.

http://2.bp.********.com/-hHMfhQoc1KE/TaDqbWtkdlI/AAAAAAAADL4/on8caBjyfIc/s1600/granite.jpg

http://www.wildasia.org/images/380/RG_GreenPlPerak.jpg

https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=Pulau+Perak

Note not visible with satellite view, use map view.

[Kubalson]

A CO-PILOT at the controls of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 invited a Melbourne tourist and her friend into the cockpit where he smoked, took photos and entertained the pair during a previous international flight.
In a worrying lapse of security, it’s been revealed pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid and his colleague broke Malaysia Airline rules when they invited passengers Jonti Roos and Jaan Maree to join them in the cabin for the one-hour flight from Phuket to Kuala Lumpur.
Ms Roos, who is travelling around Australia, told A Current Affair she and Ms Maree posed for pictures with the pilots, who smoked cigarettes during the midair rendez-vous.
“Throughout the entire flight they were talking to us and they were actually smoking throughout the flight which I don’t think they’re allowed to do,” Ms Roos said.


More here: Missing flight MH370: Co-pilot entertained Melbourne woman and friend on a previous international flight | The Mercury (http://www.themercury.com.au/news/world/missing-flight-mh370-copilot-entertained-melbourne-woman-and-friend-on-a-previous-international-flight/story-fnj3ty5y-1226850952131)

[ekpilot]

What does the MEL say about one PACK inop? Altitude restrictions? Bear with me on this...

[Capt Kremin]

Being tracked over this area is no indication that it crashed there or was hijacked. If correct, this report changes the whole scenario.

[nitpicker330]

Like I said earlier.....6 hours of fuel at 450kts.......it could be anywhere within about 2,700nm of Malaysia......

[surfcat]

Indeed the whole scenario is changed, apparently officially. But it does beg the question as to why so much effort was expended elsewhere?

[dicks-airbus]

1:10 flight time makes sense from last location to Pulau Perak? What would the average speed be, considering they might have been flying low (but not too low as apparently military radar saw them)?

How much more flying time would they at that point have (min/max taking above average speed) and what airports would be reachable (where you can put down a 777) taking the initial computed average speed from last location to Pulau Perak?

[compressor stall]

Re Pulau Perak. Plenty of snaps of it online (including some aerial ones), but interesting that GE has erased it completely.

So IF it's changed course at IGARI, then that gives the remaining original planned range of around 2100nm, or around 2600nm until dry.

Well, that's here..

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=PEK,+KUL,+&R=2100nm%406%B0+56%27+12N+103%B0+35%27+6E,+2600nm%406%B0+56% 27+12N+103%B0+35%27+6E&MS=wls&MR=600&MX=540x540&PM=*&PC=%23ff0000&RC=%23000080

[p.j.m]

OK, here's the latest development, from a Reuters cable:
Malaysia's military believes it tracked the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner by radar over the Strait of Malacca, far from where it last made contact with civilian air traffic control off the country's east coast, a military source told Reuters.

Reuters must be feeling pretty special, getting exclusive intel direct from a "military source" now...

[SOPS]

Seems like the leaks are starting, and the picture may begin changing. Note to people who a running the press conferences.....standing in front of microphones, with a chest full of medals, and saying things, does not necessarily make it so.

[atakacs]

Well I guess this was to be expected given the SAR operations there over the past days. That being said it makes things even more bizarre. A crash in the Malacca straight would have most likely be spotted or at the very least generated some debris by now. And if they did not crash there where on earth is this aircraft ?!

[nitpicker330]

Yep, who has it and for what purpose???

[p.j.m]

Re Pulau Perak. Plenty of snaps of it online (including some aerial ones), but interesting that GE has erased it completely.

Google hasn't erased it, they use commerical satellite images. Pulau Perak is way to tiny for anyone to bother sending a satellite over it to take a photo. Even if they did you wouldn't see much at all. Not worth the time and effort.

[compressor stall]

The obvious question is did it fly over Indonesia westbound.

[nitpicker330]

Question is how far did they manage to track it after Pulau Perak? I wonder if the Indos have checked their Radar data?

[nitpicker330]

You do realise this 777 could be at the bottom of the Indian Ocean 2000 nm west of Indo and never be found!!

[dicks-airbus]

If it was obtained, I would fly it in the opposite direction of search groups. I would fly to a remote location with near to none cell/radar coverage. On the other hand, that would be between Malaysia and Australia (my guess). But then you need a pretty solid strip to land it and you need fuel to refuel it. The third question would be, what to do with it then? What to do with the PAX (who may be pretty hungry by now). There are no political hot topics in that area for which a 777 could be used to do something. Getting more bizarre.

[Pavement]

If it was only tracked by primary radar on its reverse course how did they know it was at a lower altitude?

[nitpicker330]

As mentioned many times Military Radars obviously have the capability to determine Position AND Altitude on un identified targets. ( for obvious reasons !! )

[StormyKnight]

Re Pulau Perak. Plenty of snaps of it online (including some aerial ones), but interesting that GE has erased it completely.


GE (Google Earth) doesn't have 100% coverage of the earth, most notably small islands offshore. In Google maps, it is drawn, but only sea is seen in the sat view.
Its not a conspiracy....

[flash8]

The Press briefing is becoming a farce.

Stop giggling and laughing!

Think of the families..

Typical Eastern Behavior when nervous, cut them a little slack.

[glenbrook]

The obvious question is did it fly over Indonesia westbound.

Perhaps the pilot was just as confused about geography as you are.
Please tell me that was a typo... you mean westbound over the Malay peninsula surely?

edited...OH, you mean after flying sw over Malaysia, which is accepted now. Apologies for questioning your geography.

[nitpicker330]

No he meant what he said, it flew west south west from IGARI back to the Strait of Mellaca and the question is "did it continue west over Indonesia?"

[Capn Bloggs]

However, there are many airlines across the world who still allow the crew to smoke on the flightdeck. It is a continuing problem.
Only for the lungs of other pilot. Smokes and Fire hazard is a total red herring.

[Basil]

A CO-PILOT at the controls of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 invited a Melbourne tourist and her friend into the cockpit where he smoked
OMG! I've done that but never crashed. Very lucky; that's all I can say ;)

[nitpicker330]

Yes as a young F/O I've invited pretty young things to sit in the jump seat on 737's in Malaysia as well ( 23 years ago )

[ekpilot]

I REALLY hope for an outcome where it is made abundantly clear that the pilots did everything in their power to bring this airplane home safely. Our industry is becoming infested with insincere operators and oversight is becoming more and more diluted.

Either that they were fighting to their last breath in case of a hi-jacking OR that they did everything possible to bring back a damaged airplane to KL. Maybe with no electrics (no comms, no transponder/ACARS) possibly smoke, fire, pressurization problems - all while trying to find their way home relying on ground features only, finding and following the West Coast down to KL... I hope...

[Bobman84]

Anyone else notice how sarcastic the police inspector was when he said they were "co-operating with Chinese" and then laughed about some plan or similar?

They don't seem to be taking it very seriously, which only adds fuel to the fire of things we aren't aware about (yet).

[etrang]

Glen, immediately to the west of peninsular Malaysia is the rather large Indonesian island of Sumatra.

[dicks-airbus]

Interpol rules out terrorist attack: BBC News - Malaysia Airlines MH370: Stolen passports 'no terror link' (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26525281)

[harrogate]

Just as a side note, acknowledging the guys on stolen passports were probably not as significant as initially thought, aren't there less risky routes to Europe from SE Asia than going via China?

Wouldn't be my first choice. Why would they go via Beijing?

[Heliads]

I have been in Asia for over a decade. An Asian person laughing or smiling/joking may often suggest nervousness rather than humour. Please correct me if you think I am wrong about this. Still not had an answer to: has anyone checked the Paracels yet?

[Phileas Fogg]

This incident comes to mind:

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/426642-tu-154-emergency-landing-izhma-komi.html

[Bushfiva]

Oh dear.... :ugh:

You evidently do not realise that unless you are paying a commercial satellite operator $$$ for a bespoke tasking, ALL satellite imagery you see on the public internet, and especially all imagery you see for free is taken from historical archives .... if you are lucky it might be a few months old, but most imagery is a couple of years old at least.
Oh dear.... you evidently don't realise DigitalGlobe, which owns Tomnod, retasked two of its 5 satellites to photograph the area on Sunday.


Edit: But Tomnod's been wilting under the load for a while now, but did serve something like 22000 images while it was up.

[ASY68]

Can the B777 have both IDGs turned off and still operate? What would said system affect?

[ASY68]

Tim - Highly unlikely as both those islands have large Australian Government presence on them and we would know they have rocked up there already.

[glenbrook]

I have been in Asia for over a decade. An Asian person laughing or smiling/joking may often suggest nervousness rather than humour. Please correct me if you think I am wrong about this. Still not had an answer to: has anyone checked the Paracels yet?

Absolutely true, if you complain to someone in Asia, first thing they will do is laugh at you. But it's for your benefit, to help stop you getting angry and losing face.

The Paracels are very carefully monitored by China. Furthermore as has been pointed out, the Malaysians have admitted that the a/c flew over the Malay peninsula towards Indonesia.

[MrMachfivepointfive]

Elephant in the room. Another Silk Air 185, LAM 470, Egypt 990? Vertical impact at >M1.0 would leave very little in terms of a debris field.

[Hempy]

Elephant in the room. Another Silk Air 185, LAM 470, Egypt 990? Vertical impact at >M1.0 would leave very little in terms of a debris field.

Disregarding surface tension of course..

[Tim Hamilton]

I was just thinking very big picture (Tom Clancy) stuff.


I think we are all scenario exhausted.


I am sure the truth has already been discussed in one of these 1700 posts


Just which one remains elusive.


I still feel we are not been told everything.

[MrMachfivepointfive]

Disregarding surface tension of course.. The resulting confetti will get lost in the trillions of plastic grocery bags already floating in those waters.

[Frequent Traveller]

@ Tim Hamilton re "I am sure the truth has already been discussed in one of these 1700 posts"

You may safely assume 1900+ posts, adding all posts that have been edited away, such as the Ukraine Theory, or the Gold Bullion cargo manifest theory

[Coagie]

YRP
"Michelson interference? As in the Michelson-Morley experiment on the speed of light that demonstrated the lack of an ether (or that by a coincidence we happen to be stationary relative to the ether... always wondered why they discounted that possibility so readily -- okay only being tongue-in-cheek here :) ). I'm not quite sure what that has to do with underwater acoustics..."




YRP, Michelson's interference theory is about frequencies and what happens when they mix with one another, etc. It applies to light waves, radio waves and sound waves. It's the basis of the heterodyne circuit I wrote about, that's used in radios, fiber optic telecommunication, as well as sound beacon detection equipment, allowing it to focus on only one frequency, as sensitivity is lost, as the band you're listening for widens.

Anyway, My whole point was the submarine in the AF447 search was not set up for finding the 37.5khz pinger, and that I hoped something was learned from that, and we shouldn't assume a submarine is the best way to listen for a pinger, unless it's specifically set up for it. This disappearance is puzzling. Maybe more is known, but just not leaked to the press. Maybe the governments in that part of the world, don't leak info, but instead, wait 'till they have all their stuff in one sock to report. Maybe the western press is spoiled by it's leaky governments!

[mommus]

Even at 500 mph there would still be parts (whatever hit the water last) big enough to float or be seen from the air.

Not to mention a huge fuel slick

[Stanley11]

Let me try this again...

Regardless of what made the aircraft change its course and profile...

The discrepancy between the transponder track and radar track could simply be the radar operator falling asleep or took an extended smoke break just as MH370 turned back. When questioned, he simply said that there were no abnormalities and the report went upwards. The truth only came out when the tapes were reviewed and now the top brass have to face the public for the delay of vital information. I do tend to offer a generous amount of professional courtesy to the top dogs but sometimes they are placed in positions that are caused by operators way below the food chain.

Let's hope that this new piece of information will lead to finding the aircraft.

[ASY68]

MH370: Did authorities visit crash site today (Tuesday) | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/03/11/mh370-did-authorities-visit-crash-site-today/)

[Stuffy]

Unverified, but.......


China Times reports that "the U.S. Embassy said the 2:43 U.S. military bases stationed in Thailand U-Tapao SOS signal was listening to some of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 emergency call, said the aircraft cabin facing disintegration driver call, t (http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zx8m5/china_times_reports_that_the_us_embassy_said_the/)

[rachcollins]

Given that the US Department of Defense funded Indonesia’s Integrated Maritime Surveillance System, you would hope that they would be aware of it's detection capabilities in the Malacca Strait.

US Embassy Fact Sheet (http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2011/11/20111120161241su0.1662801.html?distid=ucs#axzz2vefBciKp)

"U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesperson
November 18, 2011
2011/1967
FACT SHEET

DoD-funded Integrated Maritime Surveillance System

From FY2006 to FY2008 the U.S. Government provided approximately $57 million via the National Defense Authorization Act Section 1206 to support Indonesia’s establishment of an Integrated Maritime Surveillance System (IMSS) strategically located to cover Malacca Strait, Sulawesi Sea, and Moluccas Strait.


Read more: http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2011/11/20111120161241su0.1662801.html?distid=ucs#ixzz2vepwcOE9


I believe that the US currently has at least one P-3C searching in that area.

If anything was identified by that system you'd hope that the Americans and Indonesians would be much more forthcoming with information.

It's an extremely strange scenario though, the evidence seems to suggest that MH370's transponder was not operating, and no radio contact has been reported since the aircraft disappeared on route to IGARI.

Even if those systems were somehow rendered inoperable it would still have been possible to make contact with the ground via cellphone while overflying the island, the seemingly complete lack of contact from the aircraft baffles me the most :confused:

[Ian W]

The complete lack of traces, debris or witnesses can only mean one thing, hijacking. Turn off the transponder, pull the ACARS cb's, and you are invisible to all but military primary radar. Descend low and not even they will see you. You are now in a fully functioning aircraft with astounding navigational capability, but invisible to the world. Where do you want to go?

The search area should be a seven hour fuel endurance radius of last known position. Since no ELT has gone off means it didn't crash, it landed. Remote airfields in China? Indonesia? Philippines? It means you must know how to navigate and land a 777. How many pilots in the world have undergone 777 training? Even just simulator training would suffice. 5000?

Looking forward to your thoughts.

I hate to disrupt the trusting faith that "ELT's go off in a crash" but they invariably don't. Indeed there was a discussion on here after the Ethiopian 787 fire at Heathrow on their usefulness at all. I have been involved in numerous incidents where they have gone off inadvertently. I would be interested if anyone can report the case of a crash where an ELT signal was useful. I have been involved in cases where military SARBEs worked as advertised but not ELTs.

[nupogodi]

Not to mention a huge fuel slick

Correct me if I'm wrong, but considering the temperatures of the water and ocean currents in the region and the properties of Jet-A, would any fuel slick not have dispersed and evaporated by this point?

[konstantin]

I haven`t read every page on this thread (dear lord!) but just wondering - whether six hours of Jindalee records are being (have been?) very closely examined.

BTW, in relation to the capability (and recalcitrance) of certain organisations - "neither confirm nor deny" type stuff...and before continuing, google "VH-SKC"...

There was no assistance forthcoming from a supposed "ally" unit in central Oz.
[As a counterpoint to that, an Emirates flight a couple of hours out of Sydney, listening to the A/G exchanges, with several hundred miles to run to crossing point, piped up with "Centre, we`ve been doing some sums and we think we`ll come close to seeing that aircraft". And they did.]

A year later I walk in for a morning shift, the doggo dude tells me that not very long after the 9/11 news broke that very same unit called Melbourne Centre and demanded the assigned SSR codes and flight details of all aircraft intending to pass within a certain distance of YBXX.

Ain`t nuthin to see here, move along, y`all...

[mixture]

Oh dear.... you evidently don't realise DigitalGlobe, which owns Tomnod, retasked two of its 5 satellites to photograph the area on Sunday.

To be honest I didn't click on the link, Tomnod is a silly name and sounded like someone's personal website !

I'd still wonder about whether any useful information will come of it... people with no SAR experience will simply be tagging general rubbish that can be found floating around the worlds waters..... all Tomnod will likely end up with is a database of false positives.

In all honesty, I think its more of a PR marketing exercise for DigitalGlobe than anything useful.

[LessThanSte]

Quote:
Disregarding surface tension of course..
The resulting confetti will get lost in the trillions of plastic grocery bags already floating in those waters.

Just FYI, I read Sunny in Chenobyl a while back which looks at this mythical pool of debris in the Pacific Ocean. Whilst it does exist, its not in the traditional sense. During an expedition to collect real pieces of debris from the area (i.e. carrier bags, plastic bottles, etc.) they encountered almost no debris. Tests did show a high-ish amount of suspended particles, but they wernt visible.