Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[YYZjim]

Professional pilots should bear in mind that the MH370 S&R fiasco will likely result in the public's demanding changes. It might be wise for professional pilots to propose their own solution, rather than wait for governments and regulators to impose new rules. Perhaps the pilots' unions should propose that:
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.
This service would:
1. increase the difficulty of a third-party hijacking;
2. protect all pilots from the stain on them which may remain if the mystery of MH370 is never sorted out; and
3. provide much comfort to future passengers.

[Pontius Navigator]

Yep, it is possible that with fatigue (and short temperateness, he could have made a monumental mistake by deciding to do something to the flight (and pax). A spur of the moment act thought through from 9:30pm to midnight?

This begs the question as to what he did with FO and pax? Further, what was the ultimate end of MH370 according to the captain's spur of the moment plan?
Or maybe he said to the FO "I'm knackered" or words to that effect, "You have it, I'm going back to get my head down." . . .

[SLFplatine]

Quote (RetiredF4):
That leaves the outside job, from a group with resources, money and motive.

Could that group be some political motivated group from inside or outside Malaysia to make some statement and do some damage (terror), or a criminal group with the intent to make money from the load and aircraft (crime)?

4. MH370 could have been hijacked with the intention to land it somewhere, for its load or for criminal or unknown political reasons.

5. Planning for such a landing needs wealthy, influential and powerful assistance, only states or state organizations can provide.

Now look for somebody along the suspected flightpath with the power, the ability, the will and the recklessness for such a plan.

Iran (IRGC -Quds Force)? -Difficult to see motive here unless to torpedo Iran-U.S detente discussions; the IRGC is not in favor

Note info contained in early WSJ story when plane first went missing indicated one of the passengers was a Malaysian aircraft engineer

[mickjoebill]

Out of your 23x specimens in the back, there are at least 10 or so that will come back without permanent damage. Altitude tolerance is extremely individual. I don't think that's a risk I'd take
You would also have to factor that a few cabin crew could apparently survive on the portable air for as long as those in the cockpit.


Mickjoebill

[adnoid]

You only occupy either seat (L/R) , because of your PA . Pax don't get on board a remote.

I'm glad we got that straightened out.

[510orbust]

Barrel Owl - Push heading select dial the knob to your intended track and the aircraft turns, not sure if this is your question, used daily on every flight for vectors to avoid climbing or descending aircraft or delaying vectors

[GALAX]

What evidence do you have regarding which waypoints were entered in the FMC? I haven't heard anything like that. Just because the aircraft flew towards or over waypoints doesn't mean that they were entered in the FMC, right?

[galaxy flyer]

barrel_owl,

Simples, the airway was loaded in the FMS, containing IGARI, BITOD....to Beijing. The FMS commanded the turn from 025 to 040 to follow the FMS plan; someone loads VAMPI,o follow BITOD, and makes VAMPI the new active waypoint, the plane turns westward into oblivion.

Isn't this the Professional PILOTS Rumor Network?

GF

[flash8]

The last known Satellite 'ping' could have been received whilst the a/c was on the ground.

Rupert Murdoch suspect the a/c in is Northern Pakistan. The guy may be loopy but could have a point.

Assuming a sophisticated hijack one would assume the a/c is on the ground somewhere now, dumping into the sea seems a rather odd statement to make, especially as it may never be found.

[rigbyrigz]

FR24 shows it instantaneously change from FL35 to FL0 as 25 degrees change to 40. Not clear this right turn was a real turn, is it. More likely an anomally?

[gazumped]

I think you may find crew oxy has 3 selections, Normal, 100%, and Emergency. Pax oxy is via oxygen generators, duration 12 minutes, once activated. Crew oxy is supplied by actual oxygen bottles, duration depending on configuration, but usually oxy endurance runs into several hours.
Cheers Gaz

[harrogate]

My favourite post so far is the one a few pages back that said "there's nothing complex or elaborate about his home flight sim setup".

http://www.sharelor.net/uploads/2/6/5/1/26515655/2563978_orig.jpg

Yeah. Looks pretty standard to me.

[barrel_owl]

Barrel Owl - Push heading select dial the knob to your intended track and the aircraft turns, not sure if this is your question, used daily on every flight for vectors to avoid climbing or descending aircraft or delaying vectors
Correct, if you push HDG, this overrides the current flight plan stored in the FMC and the aircraft simply turns to the new selected track. But this also results in the aircraft following now the pilot's inputs, not the FMC. See my point?
Then, two questions:

1. If the FMC had been pre-programmed to follow to VAMPI after IGARI, as reported here, then why did the aircraft clearly turned right, as headed for BITOD?
2. If the cockpit intended to hijack the aircraft after IGARI and make a straight left-turn following navigation points in manual without following the original flight plan stored in the FMC, then why should they care to insert a change in the FMC after IGARI?

Sorry, but this report that the left turn had been pre-programmed in the FMC and reported in the ACARS log before 1:07 makes no sense to me.

[barrel_owl]

barrel_owl,

Simples, the airway was loaded in the FMS, containing IGARI, BITOD....to Beijing. The FMS commanded the turn from 025 to 040 to follow the FMS plan; someone loads VAMPI,o follow BITOD, and makes VAMPI the new active waypoint, the plane turns westward into oblivion.

Isn't this the Professional PILOTS Rumor Network?

GF
You can change the flight plan and add new waypoints at any time. Now, if your theory is that VAMPI was loaded just after the aircraft had reached IGARI and was following to BITOD (right before disappearing from radar at 1:21 MYT), how could the last ACARS log report such change in the flight plan at 1:07?

[rigbyrigz]

Or programmed a course correction to 40 degrees THEN left?

But I see the good point.

Here is the ABC NEWS quote reported extensively:

"Adding to the intrigue, ABC News reported that the dramatic left turn was preprogrammed into the plane's navigation computer. It's a task that would have required extensive piloting experience.

Two senior law enforcement officials also told ABC that new information revealed the plane performed "tactical evasion maneuvers" after it disappeared from radar. CNN was unable to confirm these reports."

??

[510orbust]

Adding to my theory it was shot down

[barrel_owl]

Or programmed a course correction to 40 degrees THEN left?

But I see the good point.
It is refreshing that someone finally sees my point. Thank you.

Here is the ABC NEWS quote reported extensively:

"Adding to the intrigue, ABC News reported that the dramatic left turn was preprogrammed into the plane's navigation computer. It's a task that would have required extensive piloting experience.

Two senior law enforcement officials also told ABC that new information revealed the plane performed "tactical evasion maneuvers" after it disappeared from radar. CNN was unable to confirm these reports."
Exactly, another unconfirmed and unverified "report" which holds no water.

[ettore]

Yes. "Unable" means unable. So, please, would you cool down for a while on wild theories. We're talking about 239 souls.Thanks.

[redmin888]

gazumped

On 777 oxygen generators are not use for the pax. For the passengers on the 777, O2 are off a gaseous ring main which comprise of 12 to 16, 115cu bottles in the aft cargo bay sidewall. The flight crew has their own 115 cu bottle in the MEC

[Pontius Navigator]

I think you may find crew oxy has 3 selections, Normal, 100%, and Emergency.

If this is standard, I expect this is:

Normal - oxygen/air mix to maintain at equivalent to 10,000ft.

100% - no air mix in the event of loss of cabin pressure - 2mm overpressure to ensure a good supply

Emergency - 4mm pressure in the event of smoke and fumes. It is not true pressure breathing which would be up to 30mm.

[ATCNetwork]

Would be great if you could see a summary of the actual facts on these 242 pages of posts.

[Cassini]

Every flight simulator enthusiast with good add-on have sufficient knowledge to reprogram fms with new waipoints.

[Gamebeater]

Here is an example of the foolishness of the media in reporting on this matter. The Associated Press at 03/16/2014 12:14 am EDT says:

“The third indication is that that after the transponder was turned off and civilian radar lost track of the plane, Malaysian military radar was able to continue to track the plane as it turned west.
The plane was then tracked along a known flight route across the peninsula until it was several hundred miles (kilometers) offshore and beyond the range of military radar.”

What drivel. IGARI to VAMPI to GIVAL is hardly “a known flight route.” All you have to do is look at the aeronautical chart of the area to see that these waypoints are not connected by any airway. We can talk about GIVAL to IGREX by way of MAPSO and DUKUN on P628 but the bottom line is that the AP is full of it and adds to the confusion of the public.

[bunk exceeder]

SARSAT/коспас seems not to have been mentioned. Why wouldn't it be able to pick up the 406 MHz ELT in a 777 were one to go off?

[Juliet Tango Whiskey]

The aircraft COULD have gone below radar afterpassing IGARI, but then the range would have been decreased at low altitude. :ugh:

[ettore]

Bunk. I repeat it for you alone : Would you please cool down for a while on wild theories. We're talking about 239 souls. Thanks.

[wdowell]

My favourite post so far is the one a few pages back that said "there's nothing complex or elaborate about his home flight sim setup".

http://www.sharelor.net/uploads/2/6/5/1/26515655/2563978_orig.jpg

Yeah. Looks pretty standard to me.

It's still almost certainly only FS with pmdg 777 add-on. The only difference is that he has a few monitors spread out (frankly I've seen better!) - it's not as glam as all that but has some attempt to making it spatially more accurate

[trad]

Amazing that they are searching as far away as Kazakhstan, with several dangerous flyover areas, and not considering one of 3 airbases in S.E. Iran that has long runways and large hangars.

[letsjet]

'Fanatical' missing Malaysia Airlines plane pilot pictured wearing political T-shirt | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581817/Doomed-airliner-pilot-political-fanatic-Hours-taking-control-flight-MH370-attended-trial-jailed-opposition-leader-sodomite.html#ixzz2wAESBpSd)

"It has also been revealed that the pilot's wife and three children moved out of the family home the day before the plane went missing."

Does anyone know if this has been confirmed or reported from another source?

[500N]

letsjet

I'd take anything the DM says with a grain of salt - or a hundred grains.
Just the spin on that article when I read it a few hours ago was enough
to put me off, truth or no truth. They are character assassinating the pilot
with no real facts.

[dicks-airbus]

Reading a few posts back the family situation was deemed not to be an issue. Also being at a political event on the day of the flight could be ruled out as what happened to MH370 can clearly not be called impulsive (imho).

[VH-XXX]

READ this.

From 2 hours ago Nine news Australia is reporting that the pilots wife and children moved out the day before.

There's your "stressor."

'Obsessive' pilot pictured with political slogan (http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2014/03/17/06/12/obsessive-pilot-pictured-with-political-slogan)

[Andu]

The news media are making a big deal that "the pilot" acknowledged a frequency change some minutes after the ACARS was disabled.

However, they're not making a big deal that he did so with "roger that", (or similar), a phrase that many have said was unusual in the circumstances.

Has voice recognition proved that it was the Captain's or FO's voice that made that acknowledgement? I very much doubt it. It could have been - and in my opinion, quite likely was - someone other than either of the operating crew.

Blaming one or both of the pilots is too convenient - it absolves the authorities of many very uncomfortable and inconvenient implications that have the potential of gutting passenger bookings and costing airlines enormous sums in increased security procedures.

I for one am not buying it.

[Iron Duck]

Bunk. I repeat it for you alone : Would you please cool down for a while on wild theories. We're talking about 239 souls. Thanks.

I have no wild theories. That's my point: nothing seems to fit; therefore, I think the current situation was unintended. However, with Occam as a guide, I still think it worth trying to deduce what might have been the original intention, because that may then indicate where to look.

[oldoberon]

About 8 pages back EPPo posted today's update and says they had 6 pings that is basically 1 an hour after falling of milrad.
Please follow me through this.


If you look at the map by Volcanicash page 203 #4043 ( http://s8.postimg.org/ye87yekz9/isat.jpg )

Counting back that is 40, 45,50,55,60 65. He clearly could not have gotten that close to the centre of the elevation rings ,and still get to those final arcs, so he must have flown at tangent to them, My best guess is

1st ping 45 - west bound from final radar loss point
2nd ping 50 still west ish bound
3rd ping 55 still west ish bound
he then turns NW or SW
4th ping 50
5th ping 45
6th ping 40

and ended up on the north or south arc.

But there was a rush to the north (Andam sea) why?


Finally if you look at this link from Vinnie_boombatz p201 #4011
http://telecom.esa.int/telecom/media/img/hiresimage/BGANX1-Obj4-hres.jpg


It shows the beaming arrangement of the I-4 series inmarsats (3 cover the world), there is wide beam (the whole area), a number of regional beams and finally the narrow beams. ( used I-3 diag for explanation purpose only)

To my knowledge the signals were picked up by the old I-3 sats which use 4 to cover the world and only have wide and regional beams.

As I understand the workings of the system the sat send a "hello anyone there" signal using the wide beam and if a reply is received it calculates the best regional beam to use transmits back to the response using the regional beam. Sat engineers pls confirm/correct.

The point of this post is to ask an expert if it can do that why don't we know a more accurate position ie a shorter arc based on the regional beam.

[brika]

Rupert Murdoch suspect the a/c in is Northern Pakistan. The guy may be loopy but could have a point.

Assuming a sophisticated hijack one would assume the a/c is on the ground somewhere now, dumping into the sea seems a rather odd statement

Facts:
1 This is terra firma

2 Unless you are a NASA space rocket in active launch mode, what goes up must come down

3 MTOW of MH370 is 297,550 kg.

4 Max range of a 777 200ER is 14,305 km (7,725 nautical miles)

5 largest dimensions of the T7 are 60.9 x 63.7 m

6 Hundreds of humans would know where it is – pax, ground/air crew, atc/radar controllers and so on

Logic says:

1 MH370 kissed terra firma well within the first day of its flight

2 MH370 either used the ocean or a hangar or a crowd of other parked planes to hide.

3 in the former scenario it may never be found. In the case of the latter, who is covering up?

Or am I the only one lost (other than MH370)?:confused:

[rigbyrigz]

RE: "another source for story of pilot's wife and three children..."

At Singapore Seen | Family of MH370 captain moved out of home before disappearance (http://singaporeseen.stomp.com.sg/singaporeseen/this-urban-jungle/family-of-mh370-captain-had-moved-out-of-home-even-before-disappearance)

per this link, it seems that the MALAY MAIL interviewed the maid and determined the same fact (or rumor or news) that the Mirror reports.

[Piper73]

In the military I can tell you that operations are generally Monday to Friday; this event occurred on the weekend which is the period of incompetence, including those learners monitoring radar, especially from areas not exactly known for their military prowess. Therefore most of this data and reporting needs to be treated with scepticism.
A hijacking usually is done to demand something using the lives of the passengers as collateral. If the hijacking was done to divert the cargo, it is highly unlikely that a somebody would sacrifice the lives of 200+ people purely for money, for a religion yes, but not asset gain.
The search should remain in the location where contact was lost.

[Airbubba]

Perhaps those who fly in the area regularly (I do not) could 'rate' the quality of the ATC authorities in the area?

As pointed out by a previous poster here, the Yangon FIR appears to me to be conspicuously worse than the others as far as comms. Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Ho Chi Minh seem to have very good overwater communications in my experience. Singapore has the best ATC lah, those folks are great for taking you around the weather when they have you on radar. I sometimes have trouble understanding the Lumpur controllers, it may just be the accent.

However, this doesn't mean that the Burmese military side might not be awake and watching closely even though ATC will not answer.

[sardak]

bunk exceeder
SARSAT/коспас seems not to have been mentioned. Why wouldn't it be able to pick up the 406 MHz ELT in a 777 were one to go off?IF the ELT went off, then Sarsat MIGHT pick it up. The system is not flawless, on both the beacon and satellite sides. There has been no mention from the authorities about an ELT signal, so presumably a signal has not been received. When a signal is detected, alerts go to multiple locations, so there isn't a concern that someone somewhere missed the alert.

Mike

[fly123456]

Now, if we can call fact the diversion to the west, the airplane surely would have been picked up by radars if it had overflown PAK/IND or other country with military air force.

Hence I believe, again, IF it flew westward, that it lies somewhere in the bay of bengal. Although the pings from the satellite seem to indicate it flew for 5h, I just can't believe no military force could have spotted it, if over their territory.

[TURIN]

I earlier commented about there being access to the E/E bay located outside the cockpit and that this was questionable. However, it makes sense after reading this:

"This access is potentially needed for extreme emergencies, such as by the cabin crew to fight an E/E bay fire."

Question is do you put possibility of emergency above chances of sabotage...?

At the risk of adding 'facts' to this discussion.

Many airlines have chosen (or been mandated by their local CAA) to lock the MEC access hatch from underneath. It is often a bolt that requires two spanners to undo it or it can be a spring loaded shoot-bolt. I have seen both used on the same aircraft type by the same airline (not Malaysian).

Opening one of these locked hatches from the cabin would not be a quiet affair and would need considerable effort.

On the other hand if someone did manage to conceal themselves below until the time was right, the hatch is usually covered by a velcro sealed carpet. Not easy to push open from below.

Sorry to butt in.. I'll put my tinfoil hat back on now.

[oldoberon]

SARSAT/коспас seems not to have been mentioned. Why wouldn't it be able to pick up the 406 MHz ELT in a 777 were one to go off?


yes it would but it didn't so most likely not in the drink?

[TURIN]

ELT is set off by an impact (G-switch?) I think. Not being submerged.

It is the FDR/CVR pingers that are water activated.

[Dingo63]

I still say, makes no sense to "steal" the plane without knowing for sure you can't be tracked. How could they know for sure all the cell phones in the back were off? How did they know who had radar coverage and where? Impossible for criminal-minded to know all those countries abilities or status like that. One AWACS or P-3 in the area unknown to them could undo their whole plot.

How could you be sure someone at your intended destination wouldn't notice or report Maylasian T7 arriving/parked/refueled/departed? Surely they had to have all the details worked out and this only works if no one knows where they went. Impossible to iron all that out. One slip-up and their whole plan unravels.

Hard to say if Maylasian knows where/what happened, but all of the countries in that area with AD radar have reasons for a shoot-down, and a propensity to cover it up by keeping quiet. If they didn't shoot it down, they'd still keep quiet. I'd like to think negotiations are ongoing and a team is assembled to get to the aircraft and passengers, but that all seems just way too complex and too much drama for real life.

I agree that there will be a need to mandate/put a system onboard commercial acft for either passive or active pinging equipment. I would think a low wattage system could be installed that would be isolated from system, but able to relay info in regular intervals. Maybe initially only required for Oceanic flying or rtes with more than 100 miles of non-radar.

[bunk exceeder]

Ettore, I'm cool. I'm just wondering why a bi-national global system of ELT sniffing satellites has not been mentioned among the pictures of people straining to look out of windows on maritime aircraft and surface ships bobbing through the water? Without saying whose ELT it is, shouldn't AN ELT be detected were it to go off? The little yellow ELT in our 172 then backs it up with a GPS signal reducing the accuracy circle to 50M. I sort of assumed the one in my old Jumbo had that too.

As for attaching Lat/Long to ACARS messages and live streaming FDR info, this soon to be system would appear to allay many concerns about proper ATC and position information, without breaks in coverage, full time, at long last:

Aireon Global Leadership (http://www.aireon.com/AboutAireon/GlobalLeadership)

Perhaps there would be merit in eventually transmitting FDR-like information real time for certain critical parameters such as red EICAS stuff.

[lakedude]

Originally Posted by ackfoo
Quoting lakedude:
Triangulation doesn't require the points of measurement to be in a triangle, or even for there to be three of themMaybe a picture will help you understand. Even if you had 100 satellites in a line there would still be a ghost point on the other side of the line of satellites with no way to determine which was the real point. The only way to determine the real point from the mirror image ghost is to have one satellite that is not on the same exact line (yes I know the earth is round and that this is really a 3 dimensional issue).

http://i.imgur.com/5XrKO5B.jpg

[rigbyrigz]

Just from the perspective of technical feasibility, with no real theory (new or proposed) resulting:

a) pilot (or someone) pre-programs left-turn VAMPI before IGARI is reached. This is before 1:07 and so appears as an ACARS event

b) ACARS off or gone, no more events logged and reported

c) pilot (or someone) programs or turns 40 degree course correction for reasons unknown, but could be to lessen suspicion of Vietnam ATC. No ACARS so no record of this

d) as soon as 40 degree turn is achieved, then left 180 degrees to VAMPI, no ACARS now so no report of this...

with some "mastermind bizarre logic" ascribed to this sequence of events, it would at least "explain" what barrel_owl or others are questioning?

[ettore]

Hi, Bunk.

Glad to see you're right back on track. Took a bit of explanation. Was worth it. Thanks :)

[MarkJJ]

Can I put the VATSIM idea out there, please, helmet back on again too

[redmin888]

Turin

The fix ELT on the 777 can be set off manually in the flight deck or by impact (G-switch) The aircraft also carrys 2 ( depending on airline this number) portable 406 MHz ELT. The are activated by water and located by the doors. The have a floatation material over it and an antenna. Unless it is manually release from its stowage it will not float to the surface like a bouy and transmit. so it will sink to the bottom. The CVR and FDR have an ultrasonic beacon bolted on each of the and they will transmit away underwater

[MarkJJ]

Wonder if anyone can put the Asia chart up from here

http://www.planningcharts.de/

[Tfor2]

Could a commercial pilot please take us through the following for clarification, which I'm sure has already been covered in the great morass of this thread's history?

Air Traffic Control: Routes are segmented, aren't they? In other words, the pilot's last words were "All right, good night." What was said by ATC in the previous transmission, of which this was the answer? And doesn't it follow that at the time when leaving one segment of ATC, and being handed off to the next, that there is a change of radio frequency, with the next segment expecting the transponder I.D. Wouldn't the a/c be queried by the next ATC? Or does it fly into a blank distance with no ATC? At some point, ATC somewhere must have been calling them repeatedly.

[TURIN]

redmin888

Thanks for the full explanation I wasn't aware of the ability to set the ELT off from the f/d. I'll be looking for that switch tomorrow, be sure. :O

[LFRT]

http://s29.postimg.org/4m494l5jr/128148.jpg

Zoom and contrast adj on lower left corner
http://s16.postimg.org/bjvby1s2d/zoom.jpg

source : Tomnod (http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014/map/128148)
(Replace "challenge" by "api" in url to get the coordinates)

[220mph]

Think in terms of two pilots locked in their cockpit - with only a marginally visible horizon, no altimetry, no heading info, no cockpit lights, no navigability. They tried to turn back once things started to go sour - but once your systems are taken out, you need some sort of roll-out heading advisory. At that westerly turning juncture, having decided to turn back, it all became a world of hurt. No flight instruments make Jack a dull boy. That was probably as good as it would ever get for that hapless crew.

TheShadow ... not sure what you are saying? No altimeter, no heading etc? Even with all of the electronic flight instruments inop you still have your backups. Analog altimeter, artificial horizon, Airspeed, and compass. Everything you need to fly the aircraft.


And the pilots have to have had an awareness of where they were at when everything went down, and a good understanding of the general area. Turn towards land - and fly the aircraft and find an airport.

At altitude, even at night, with generally decent weather, it would seem it should not be that hard to keep the aircraft in the air, find land and an airport ...

[AAKEE]

I dont get it about the angular rings from inmarsat.

There seems to be about 300-450km between each 5 degree ring.

Inmarsat is at 35.786 km altitude. 5 degrees from that will be about 3110km... just would like to se where they get this scaled rings from ?

[SeenItAll]

This thread has certainly brought out the "analysts" whose textbooks are films like "To Catch a Thief," "James Bond," "Mission Impossible" or the "Oceans #" movies. I would prefer to take instruction from analysts whose "texts" were actual science classes, SAR or aviation experience.

That said, as someone who is a professional in decision analysis, the smart money should be on a chain of events that are consistent with one another. Not a parley bet of several one million-to-one chances.

What appears to be an important chain of consistency in terms of all of the information that we have is that every significant occurrence seems to have the effect, intended or not, of making it harder to track the location of this plane.

Comms termination as are crossing FIRs
ACARS termination
Travel backtrack between Malaysian and Thai airspace at FL295
Feint to the north, then heading to the south

I have seen no simple explanation of why all of these strange events should occur other than because some sentient individual is willing them. All of them suggest that this individual doesn't want this plane to be found, ever. If this person wanted to head to the Stans, why didn't they commandeer one of the many flights from KL that head towards Europe? Far few tracks would need to be covered. The idea that this plane secretly landed is beyond far-fetched. Further, I see hundreds of millions of dollars being spent by dozens of governments looking at sea, not at land.

While I have no crystal ball, it seems certain that this individual had to have extensive knowledge of T7 systems, as well as extensive knowledge of flight surveillance systems in SE Asia. This individual would also have to be well-placed to effectuate this plan on the plane. One of the flight deck crew seems to be the most likely possibility. Shooting the companion pilot or getting him off the flight deck and then turning off the A/C packs and opening the outflow would incapacitate everyone behind the flight deck door in short order -- especially if the altitude was in the >FL350 range.

The aforementioned analysis is based on consistent logic. I am not a psychologist and cannot venture a guess as to why this pilot may have done this. Hatred at MAS, hatred at the Malaysian government, upset at home situation -- or perhaps wanted to end his career as a lost icon that lives forever in aviation history -- such as Amelia Earhart or D. B. Cooper.

All of this suggests that this plane headed southwest into the furthest and deepest location of the Indian Ocean -- say halfway between Australia and Diego Garcia. Given the remoteness of this area, its bad weather for surface navigation, and its great depth, this is where the plane was crashed.

While I hold out hope that we may find some floating evidence of the crash, I am betting that in my remaining lifetime the actual plane will not be found, and no final proof will be established as to exactly what happened, or why.

[vapilot2004]

Like all modern aircraft with EICAS/ECAM display systems, most of the 777 cockpit panels are merely control interfaces, or in Boeing vernacular, CDU's. The actual units are generally racked in the EE bay and not at all user friendly as to disablement.

The transponders are an easy disable - switch them to standby. Done. However, to prevent the ACARS system from transmitting data requires a bit more work. On the 777, ACARS is an integrated part of the AIMS and as such, has no off switch. One can disable the reporting module of the AIMS by either pulling specific CB's located in the EE bay (ACARS modem), de-racking the primary units (2 - ACARS modem LRU's) located in the EE bay AIMS cabinet, or (simplest method) by accessing the ACARS page on an FMS CDU and switching the data link to an unused frequency, deselecting ACARS downlink, or putting all 3 VHF radios in voice mode.

Similarly the SATCOM system is also fully integrated and while there is a control page available via the FMS CDU, there is no off switch. The cockpit CDU can however change birds and channels, but according to a senior maintenance engineer, this action would trigger a logoff signal to be sent heavenward. That signal is not part of the current set of known facts.

According to information we have so far, it appears the ACARS was disabled, while the SATCOM system remained active, allowing the aircraft to be known to be flying 4-5 hours after last comms were received.

As a side note, under current software revision, there is an FMS CDU page which will show the status of an active SATCOM link - and again going by facts known at this time, the interlopers were likely unaware of this CDU function or failed to understand the system fully. The information so far suggests the interlopers were knowledgeable at least to the level of an experienced 777 pilot, with some additional knowledge of the rarely used FMS pages to disable the ACARS.

[27/09]

Position information based on the last received satellite pings has been released.

It seem obvious that if Search and Rescue have position information from theses pings they will have the same information from older pings. From this info they should give a pretty good idea of which direction the aircraft headed.

Why they haven't released the data on the other pings?

[PieChaser]

Backseat Dane,

I'm sorry if this has been touched upon before, but a search in this thread for "fake flight plan " doesn't return any hits. So:

Could whoever piloted MH370 have filed a "fake" IFR flight plan for "Whatever flight XXX/Private XXX" in advance and then, when the aircraft had been disappeared over the ocean in an area without ATC and radar coverage, simply present himself as "Whatever flight XXX/Private XXX" in accordance with the filed flight plan to ATC when entering controlled airspace, set the ACs transponder to the designated squawk and then all of a sudden be a legit flight being able to travel in controlled airspace without anyone including military types noticing (for the time being at least)?

Or would ATC know in advance that "Whatever flight XXX/Private XXX" had in fact never taken off from it's filed origin and therefore flag it as trouble? Does - or rather must - the ATC handing the aircraft off into uncontrolled airspace advise the ATC in the other end that "Whatever flight XXX/Private XXX" is approaching in accordance with filed flight plan?

(With a Mode S XPDR I guess you really can't unless ATC doesn't couple the transponders ID with the ICAO database or doesn't notice the discrepancy, but can the pilot of a 777 toggle the transponders mode and run in ie mode A/C?)

((Asking because I'm trying to weed out a conspiracy that's pretty much off the top))

My thoughts also! Especially for an onward flight!

Re my post 4508

Just a thought.
I spent several years building my own aircraft, and although I am pretty competent with electronics, I am by no means an expert.
However I bought an off the shelf mode S transponder, set the hex code myself, installed it then test flew the aircraft. All done with no airframe or avionics experience, as is the case with a lot of home builders out there.
If you were able to smuggle a mode S transponder aboard that T7 I suspect it would be relatively easy for an electronically savvy guy to hook it up and set what ever hex code he desired thereby cloning another aircraft.
I am sure a licensed avionics engineer will shoot me down if I am way off the mark here.
But it may just explain why this guy appears to have been able to fly his aircraft wherever he wanted.

[island_airphoto]

TFOR 2:

I have been "lost" when X controller forgets to hand me off and eventually I fly out of radio range. After some screwing around I find the freq for Y controller and they either want to know what took me so long or who the hell I am :rolleyes:

So........if you wanted to vanish, a freq change is a good place to do it ;)

BTW - For *some* routes, there are sections that have no comms at certain altitudes. New Orleans to Tampa has one such area at 12,000 and below that is about 100 miles long. I do not believe this route is one of these.

[poorjohn]

A few hours ago in post #4761 I posted a link to an extremely lucid post in which a gentleman/woman with a clear mind, no apparent agenda, and enough intelligence to know what s/he did and did not know, went to a lot of trouble to write a very long summary of much of what has been covered here, over and over again over hundreds of pages.

When I looked to see if the post had survived moderation, it was still there. But no one had mentioned it in subsequent posts, either to say 'yeah, that guy sure did a useful summary' or the contrary.

Being basically grumpy, I conclude that the bulk of the chatter here is coming from people who just want to see their opinions in writing, and/or have no interest in actually reading what others have posted.

That's my opinion; I've read this thread from page one and have made two other contributions: very early, I researched and posted a link to the Federal Register entry in which the FAA was announcing the AD regarding satcom antenna/skin crack, then the link to that summary.

[Rabbitwear]

Interesting to see the guy who put the fake FR 24 video on youtube dahboo7 had all his videos removed and was almost arrested, he subsequently set up a new Chanel dahboo77 and put all the videos back, some people live on the edge.
I don't think MAS 370 is meant to be found we may never know.

[Ian W]

[QUOTE=alwaysontime;8381491]Some drones are the size of light aircraft and yes several jets have been brought down by light aircraft collisions in the past
QUOTE]

The trick is for the captain to shut down some comms just before the collision have the collision then sign off the current controller with a laconic americanism then put the SSR/ADS to standby. Obviously learned the stiff upper lip from the English school :cool:

[ExSp33db1rd]

The fix ELT on the 777 can be set off manually in the flight deck or by impact (G-switch) If someone deliberately hijacked the aircraft they wouldn't want the ELT to activate, so wouldn't use a flight deck switch, and why have such a switch anyway, if you need the ELT you need the ELT, I guess the only reason would be in the case of an accidental activation - heavy landing ? (!!)

If the aircraft has landed deliberately on some secret airstrip, highly unlikely I guess, then it woudn't activate and the same reason as above would apply.

Maybe ? one could land on the ocean, as per the Hudson ditching, softly enough to not activate it, tho' I doubt it, so I guess the only answer is that it has deliberately not been switched on, or activated on contact with the ocean then promptly sank and was swamped. The water activated ones mentioned already are intended for use in liferafts by survivors, I doubt that they too could continue working X-fathoms down.

So - I don't think lack of an ELT signal is too big a mystery ? i.e. it's drowned, or it's deliberately repressed.

[barrel_owl]

Just from the perspective of technical feasibility, with no real theory (new or proposed) resulting:

a) pilot (or someone) pre-programs left-turn VAMPI before IGARI is reached. This is before 1:07 and so appears as an ACARS event
If the pilot or the F/O had pre-programmed VAMPI after IGARI, then you would see the aircraft turning left over IGARI or, much probably, slightly before IGARI. That simple. This is what you see every day when your aircraft is following the flight plan stored in the FMC. The right turn observed on the secondary radar and confirmed by official sources does not support a scenario with VAMPI programmed as next waypoint. No way. In my opinion, the turn from 25° to 40° is a clear indication that the aircraft was still following the original flight plan to BITOD. And if you track any other flight of MAS370 (now MAS318) on flightradar24, you can see that this is exactly what happens every day with that flight as soon as it reaches IGARI.
I have no clue what the aircraft did after it turned off the transponder and disappeared from radar. However, I think it is safe to say that it was still following its original standard flight plan WMKK-ZBAA until the last blip reported by the secondary radar.

b) ACARS off or gone, no more events logged and reported

c) pilot (or someone) programs or turns 40 degree course correction for reasons unknown, but could be to lessen suspicion of Vietnam ATC. No ACARS so no record of this
I don't get your point. What do you mean with "someone programs a turn to 40°"? If you push HDG and select 40°, then the FMC is overridden and the aircraft follows your inputs, no matter whether the next waypoint programmed on FMC is also on 40°, or maybe 265°, 190° or whatever. And which is the logic in pre-programming a waypoint clearly off-course (VAMPI) then? Sorry, I can't see the rationale.

d) as soon as 40 degree turn is achieved, then left 180 degrees to VAMPI, no ACARS now so no report of this...
"As soon as 40 degree turn is achieved" means that the aircraft was still following its original flight plan on FMC to BITOD. Very simple. I can't see any other explanation.
Obviously it may actually have turned 180° left after it disappeared from radar, however I see no evidence that a "left-turn had been pre-programmed on the FMC" as reported by Daily Mail and other junk media. The behavior of MAS370 on radar does not support this claim.

[Undertow]

CNN were saying a few hours ago that they had reason to believe the final pings, one hour apart, were from approximately the same location - possibly the exact same location and that suggested the plane was on the ground at the final ping. They haven't "unsaid" that but they don't seem to be talking it up now.

Might explain the reluctance to provide info on earlier pings if true. At least until absolutely verified or otherwise.

[vovachan]

Can a B777 land on unpaved surfaces?

[27/09]

This report here in NZ.

Flight 370 search: Pilots key suspects in jet mystery - National - NZ Herald News (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11220825)

They now want to look in a Taliban controlled area

[Flightmech]

A B777 could probably land on an unpaved surface once!

[RichManJoe]

TMF Associates MSS blog » Understanding ?satellite pings?? (http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2014/03/15/understanding-satellite-pings/)

[rigbyrigz]

OK Barrel, you convinced me,
it must be spilled coffee or such;

ABC NEWS is junk media;

All the official investigative, LE, and SAR operatives that have concluded it was deliberate piloting expertise in play are idiots;

FR24 and his radar plot shows are unquestionable gospel;

and all the hanky-panky that has so far left this flight mystery un-found and
unsolved, suggests that the FMC and HDG activities (we can review or just guess at) would only be straightfoward and normal and not devious or confusing.

[galaxy flyer]

After this much time, I find it hard to believe it being on the "northern track" or on the ground. The US has ample satellite means of reconnaissance to identify the plane, if it ws at any known airport. An off-airport landing would likely trigger the ELT, unless it can be deactivated in flight. It can't on my plane.

GF

[James7]

Exsp....If the aircraft has landed deliberately on some secret airstrip, highly unlikely I guess, then it woudn't activate and the same reason as above would apply

There are 2 portable ELT in the cabin plus those in any rafts. Not sure if this ac had life rafts in the stowage. Also in the slide rafts but difficult, (not impossible) to get.

These can be activated at anytime, just put in water. Galley/ toilet sink would suffice.

The question is why we're they not activated by the crew. Most likely because the 'pilot' was assuring everyone over the pa that they were diverting etc etc.

The SAT ping being picked up was from the engine monitoring system, mentioned earlier in the thread. This is independent from the ACARS sat system which can easily be disabled. Or just pull the cb's in the overhead panel.

[barrel_owl]

OK Barrel, you convinced me,
it must be spilled coffee or such;

ABC NEWS is junk media;

All the official investigative, LE, and SAR operatives that have concluded it was deliberate piloting expertise in play are idiots;

FR24 and his radar plot shows are unquestionable gospel;

and all the hanky-panky that has so far left this flight mystery un-found and
unsolved, suggests that the FMC and HDG activities (we can review or just guess at) would only be straightfoward and normal and not devious or confusing.
I really have hard time understanding your sarcasm.
If you think I am wrong, then please care to explain me exactly where and why.

[The Dominican]

Until there is concrete evidence of their evolvement, I consider the flight crew as two more victims in this horrible crime.......!

[ana1936]

The single satellite ``location'' measurements that they are doing will not be able to tell that the last couple of pings were from the same location.

They will just tell us that they were from about the same distance from the satellite, i.e. on the same concentric angle circle, e.g. the 40 degree circle.

If this happened then landing (on land or in the sea) may be one explanation. Another might be that the plane's path turned to be more around or tangential to the circles, rather than perpendicular.

[dmba]

The whole 25º to 40º was explained in the first couple of days with FlightRadar saying they see it as according to flight plan and it being clear for all to see in historical flight data...non-starter

[xgjunkie]

Interestingly the Malaysians are in full political mode. I'm intrigued that the Malaysian PM mentioned the FAA, NTSB, AAIB as the promulgators of this information regarding the Inmarset ping. If hewas confident 100% that the info was ironclad then they would have claimed it themselves, instead the PM is hedging his bets. It clearly shows he is putting these agencies credibility on the hook and not just their own. If this information turns out in the future to be incorrect which is a possibility then the Malaysians will not be the ones getting the blame for it. A bit of political insurance in my opinion, when you read the PM's statement it is obvious that the Malaysians at the time are not 100% in support of it. The statement makes no mention of the lead investigator and the minister of transport who were quite active in the investigation. I suspect that these men don't quite agree with the info aboutthe ping.
There may be a whole lot more to this yet.

[Sheep Guts]

They need to keep sweeping the South China Sea especially near the South Veitnam coast. To stop searching this area now is insane. By now it's under the ocean, the wreckage probably sunk after the last sat ping at 08:11am. The search and rescue effort hadn't even properly started then.

[ExSp33db1rd]

Can a B777 land on unpaved surfaces?

Been answered, and remember, one of the first hijacking events by the PLO (Leila Kahlid ? ) was to take 3 aircraft to the Jordanian desert, a Boeing 707, a Convair 880 and a VC-10.

None left.

[TylerMonkey]

Sheep Guts is convinced it is still off Vietnam. Is any of the radar tracking data and vector changes on airway intersections that are now being supported by various agencies not sinking in yet ? It seems well documented , or are they totally off base ? I know where my bets are.

[dmba]

In actual news, any update from the ELKA ATHINA?

Are there any sources for a report of the sighting?

[Heli-phile]

Elka Athena
Quote:
Originally Posted by PortVale
In actual news, any update from the ELKA ATHINA?
Are there any sources for a report of the sighting?


This report seems to have dropped of the scope. No update and not taken up by any news agency.

[bcpr]

ELKA ATHENA

Google translation:
Newsbeast.gr | ?????? : ?? «ELKA Athina» ??? ???????? ??????????? ??? Boeing (http://www.newsbeast.gr/world/arthro/655201/to-elka-athina-den-edopise-adikeimena-tou-boeing/)


Neither the Greek ship, nor other sail boats found traces of the fatal flight

Not found eventually Greek freighter «ELKA Athina» in the Straits of Malacca traces of the fatal Boeing 777 of Malaysia Airlines that disappeared eight days ago.

[D.S.]

PA28Viking (http://www.pprune.org/members/85489-pa28viking) said


Yes - With the transponder we would expect another signal ½ second later and we didn't get it.
But we don't know when the next ACARS message was to be expected.You seem to be under the impression that only 1 single system transmits through ACARS. That is not correct.

The actual experts almost certainly know when the next transmission was expected and/or when it itself sent a message saying it was being logged off (and we know this time too - they told us when it was; 1:06)

... And moving on to the post you were replying to ...

I think people are forgetting the far eastern face saving culture. They have locked themselves into a spiral which is rapidly disappearing up their own fundaments.

I posted it before, there are only TWO facts:

1. Where the transponder transmitted last
2. Where the ACARS last transmitted.

Anything else cannot be proven yet!!!!! I will not argue with you over what the actual facts are as I am not sure you will ever concede something you don't want to hear could ever be a fact. However, I will address your two bullets

1 - The Transponder last transmitted at the Malaysia/Vietnam handover location at 1:21

2 - ACARS last transmitted somewhere along the 40 Degree line at 8:11

...hence everyone knowing for a fact the plane didn't go down at ~1:30, and that the ACARS system wasn't "destroyed in a catastrophic event" like so many others are obsessively insisting - merely the VHF (and possibly/likely HF) connections of the ACARS were disabled; the Satalite connection was still functioning (and is the reason we have the pings)

I will also like to add that at least the actual experts (now) running this investigation obviously have some freakin common sense, as this part of it isn't exactly very difficult to understand. It is beyond sad (and really quite alarming, honestly) that so many here seem completely unable to grasp such a simple reality though.

[brika]

Exsp....If the aircraft has landed deliberately on some secret airstrip, highly unlikely I guess, then it woudn't activate and the same reason as above would apply

There are 2 portable ELT in the cabin plus those in any rafts. Not sure if this ac had life rafts in the stowage. Also in the slide rafts but difficult, (not impossible) to get.

My understanding was that ELTs had automatic function -other than manual, impact and water. Could someone deactivate all, including fixed ELT near tail?

Secondly, does Cospas-Sarsat monitor the southern Indian Ocean area?

[D.S.]

strake (http://www.pprune.org/members/56415-strake) said

I think Occam's Razor comes into play and that would suggest the wreckage of the aircraft is at the bottom of the sea within a few hundred miles of where it was lost on radar. It just hasn't been found yet. So your "Occam's Razor" conclusion is...

- Absolutely all the hard tech data being used by some of the greatest minds Governments and the Planes Builders employe is just all wrong
- It is really in the 30-75 Meters deep water that 14 Countries searched for 8 days without finding even a seat cushion, let alone a 777 wing

Have I summarized your position pretty well?

Now compare that to the actual Experts theory

- People who knew what they were doing did what they knew how to do

I'm sorry, but we shouldn't even be having to argue this; your argument is flat out asinine and it is being presented to counter an unbelievably simple explanation that all the actual experts seem to agree on

[tvasquez]

I have just now posted high-resolution visible satellite sectors for the eastern Indian Ocean between 0000 and 0200 UTC. This is the highest resolution data I have access to and is just barely within the range of being able to detect contrails. I have applied an enhancement curve that specifically brings out early morning contrast.

High-res visible sectors for Southeast Indian Ocean - 8 March 2014 - Weather Graphics (http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/iozooms.shtml)

I don't know if this will have any practical value for finding the plane and I foresee people seeing all kinds of patterns in this data and perhaps even the face on Mars. But in my view it's better having more data out there rather than nothing at all. I do suggest treating all signatures as nothing conclusive and checking what you see against FR24 archives. This is provided as-is.

Most of the region is covered by marine-layer stratocumulus and will be similar in nature to the cloud layers that occur off the California coast in summertime. Unfortunately this region is subsident with fairly dry air, so contrails will generally not be seen here for planes below FL390.

If anyone sees anything definitive, I will locate it on my software and provide an exact lat/long coordinate set, but as I have a lot of other things going on, my time to explore this set is very limited. Feel free to copy the images, make animations, repost, or however you prefer to use the data.

Tim Vasquez
Weather Graphics

[jmmilner]

For those who think the captain's home simulator is a red flag due to how complete it appears, take a quick look at Viperpit(s).org (http://www.viperpits.org). You'll see multiple examples of F-16 cockpits that put the captain as well as Hollywood to shame, complete with fully operational displays, gauges, buttons and switches, all connected to free software (BMS 4.32) that does a damn good job of simulating an F-16C Block 50/52.

[Severe Clear]

I am breaking a longstanding rule of mine not to post. I am a grateful observer of this forum. For about seven years I have visited because of the quality of thought, reason and gravitas offered herein. During this thread I felt obliged to register because I found myself reading postings constantly, copying them and evaluating.

Once I was paid to fly and conduct SAR. When I aged I failed the paid or "pro" part of this site's offering and thus I listened and learned. And then I married into a family of producers (generations) of these great airplanes and I have to pay attention.

Today, I observe a profound change in postings and attitudes. There IS TOO MUCH speculation on the souls aboard MH370. I survived a horrific crash in the Andes and know what my Father went through. I have lost seven flying buddies, brothers really and each lost was profound torment. I ache and choke when I visualize the family's waiting for crew and passengers...

Not to take the time to do your homework and read all the posts is juvenile.
It also is a loss for your search for fact. This is not a forum within which you can validate your view of your cleverness or intelligence. It is a gathering of experienced aviators and those that allow aviation to exist...honor that.

And finally, my great Scottish Aunt Bette, said: " ...there is no sense havin' ignorance unless you can show it." This is one place I know I hope never to show my arrogance, let alone ignorance. I have many questions, and they get answered here by remarkable women and men.

Please forgive my intrusion. I find what I am reading too much to remain silent.

[downwindabeam]

Did they mess up, or has it been a propaganda triumph?

Had you heard of Anwar Ibrahim prior to March 7th?


I think that if we're going down this route, one must ask if the Malaysian government itself has anything to gain from the shift of focus to this disappearance. Being the ones who also control the investigation it is not implausible that they would gain from the disappearance of this airplane.

I also want to say that the Australian girl coming forward with the cockpit pictures and perhaps even the telling of the Captain's wife and children leaving the day before smells too much like a set up for the end of this story. It's a smoke screen being put forward to add beef to the story.

[rigbyrigz]

Tim Vasquez
Weather Graphics

Thank you for providing this.

It has crossed my mind in a hopeful moment that
some TOMNOD like satellite photos of the areas needing crowdsearch
searching would be posted... I was fancying USA using their
photos and putting them on the massive healthcare.gov site. LOL.

[SLFplatine]

Quote (galaxy flyer):
After this much time, I find it hard to believe it being on the "northern track" or on the ground. The US has ample satellite means of reconnaissance to identify the plane, if it ws at any known airport. An off-airport landing would likely trigger the ELT, unless it can be deactivated in flight. It can't on my plane.

Not to mention the Chinese -over whose territory the 'northern track' is indicated. -my opinion: given the sat capabilities of the U.S. and China a whole lot more is known than has been released.

[DCrefugee]

2 - ACARS last transmitted somewhere along the 40 Degree line at 8:11

Not my understanding of the public information. ACARS was shut down shortly after feet wet and before Malaysian ATC bid the flight farewell. Shortly after which the transponder(s) was/were disabled.

The SATCOM system, however, continued to function, in a sort of keep-alive mode, but did not pass flight or aircraft data to the satellite(s). It's the last of those recurring signals that Inmarsat has plotted along roughly the 40N arcs.

[Neogen]

Posted By The Dominican

Until there is concrete evidence of their involvement, I consider the flight crew as two more victims in this horrible crime.......!

I completely agree, its bad to malign someone who is not present to defend himself.

[Cani]

Google Translation -> "The horror continues: The Greek ship did not detect the Boeing - Greek tanker named " ELKA Athina"

[Sheep Guts]

Reasons not to stop searching in the South China Sea

1. Last SSR 01:22 am near IGARI waypoint
2. Very descriptive eyewitness account from the Song Mercur Oil Rig off Vung Tau. Which was checked by one Veitnam Aircraft only, no sea or sea floor sonar search ever done to date.
3. Chinese reported a seismic event in South China Sea off Veitnam at same location.
4. The 40 degree IOR Satellite ring passes through the same area South Veitnam coast . Which is only being discounted for one reason radar coverage. The last ping at 08:11 am was on this 40 degree ring. Some reports saying all the pings came from 1 place. Yes they did come from one place, the wreckage in the South China Sea until it sunk some time after 08:11am.
5. Kota Baru police report loud bang off the coast.

Reason to now discount the Malaysian Military Radar

1. It came to us way later in the search. And seems erroneous in nature,
2. The area of reported tracking Mh370 over the Malay peninsula is a high traffic region! many aircraft in and out of Phuket , hadyai , Krabi, langkawi, and Penang etc.
3. Aircraft was reported at multiple FLight levels, some way above service ceiling B777. To me these plot are all different aircraft doing different things and not one aircraft. I bet the jet at FL450 was a Bizjet for sure.
4. Many countries have reported no primary radar contact with such a target at the times reported now Indonesia, India, and even now Pakistan deny radar contact.


PLEASE DO NOT STOP SEARCHING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA! KEEP YOUR ASSETS IN PLACE AND START DOING SEA FLOOR SEARCH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AIRWAYS!

[D.S.]

jmmilner (http://www.pprune.org/members/293542-jmmilner) said

For those who think the captain's home simulator is a red flag due to how complete it appears, take a quick look at Viperpit(s).org (http://apicdn.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=1e857e7500cdd32403f752206c297a3d&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-246.html&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.viperpits.org&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Fnewreply.php%3Fdo%3Dpostre ply%26amp%3Bt%3D535538).

It is not He Had Simulator = He Did it

I am pretty sure not a single person believes that.

What it instead is

-Plane goes missing in extremely sophisticated way; one that was quite possibly practiced before attempting to pull off.
-Last known person to fly the plane has a devise he can practice flying the plane on, in nearly any situation, in his home.

It makes no sense refusing to check it, just like every single other person on the plane needs to be checked to see if they possibly have a way of figuring out how to pull this off.

[Old Boeing Driver]

Since this thread was started on March 7, there have been almost 5,000 posts, and over 7.5 million views.

We have muddled through a huge number of theories, and possible causes.

Once in awhile, someone brings up that 239 souls may have been lost.

As we trudge through this, I would ask all to take moment, a breath, and think some good thoughts about those on board MH 370.

Regards,

OBD

[Ian W]

Professional pilots should bear in mind that the MH370 S&R fiasco will likely result in the public's demanding changes. It might be wise for professional pilots to propose their own solution, rather than wait for governments and regulators to impose new rules. Perhaps the pilots' unions should propose that:
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.
This service would:
1. increase the difficulty of a third-party hijacking;
2. protect all pilots from the stain on them which may remain if the mystery of MH370 is never sorted out; and
3. provide much comfort to future passengers.

No need to lighten the pilots pocket books :D

The system you are describing is already expected to be retrofitted to aircraft in the near future. It is Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Contract (ADS-C) Extended Projected Profile or ADS-C EPP. This will be used over VHF data link FANS 2/B and over SATCOM FANS 1/A (it already is in use by some aircraft). FANS 1/A ADS-C is transmitted ~every 10 minutes but could be at 90 second intervals; FANS 2/B ADS-C could also be transmitted every 90 seconds. This would be in line with SESAR/NextGen and would also answer the BEA requests after AF447. The advantage of ADS-C EPP is that it transmits up to 128 waypoints from the FMC active route and a lot of other data. :D

[sleemanj]

Malaysian jet 'avoided radars in three countries' | Stuff.co.nz (http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9836664/Malaysian-jet-avoided-radars-in-three-countries)


Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 dropped to altitudes as low as 5000 feet, or 1524 metres, using a dangerous flying technique called "terrain masking" to avoid radar in at least three countries, investigators believe.



...it is understood investigators say it is more likely the plane is in the northern corridor where there are unstable governments, mountainous terrain and extremist groups.

[ika]

Consensus is it was a deliberate act with significant knowledge and non-trivial planning and flight for several hours either on Northern arc through China towards Eastern Europe or South to Indian Ocean. No single convincing explanation has yet emerged as to why go to these lengths. A few thoughts.

A) The theory of going North and landing somewhere remote for re-use as a weapon is interesting but I am assuming all strips of sufficient length are known as a result of a Cold War spanning many decades after the advent of high resolution satellite imagery and have been investigated by now by satellite, and ones with convenient hangarage more directly (although we may not know). One would hope that (at least) until it is found all the military around will be on high readiness and alert for any unexpected primary contact or questionable secondary and a T7 trying to creep along slowly at low level pretending to be a GA VFR flight with no tx is likely to get noticed, so 2nd part of plan seems less likely to work, we hope. But that's not to say any terrorist who has done what seems like the difficult bit was sufficiently rational and self-critical to have figured that out, and may have a plan. So I'd say this is still possible but not that likely.

B)Or did they carefully plan everything else but then have a "Doh!" moment by overestimating fuel on board or burning more than planned in initial high climb then lower level flight and fail to make a visible target perhaps in Europe and crash somewhere dark in remote Eastern Europe, without a fireball after engines flameout, still waiting to be discovered. Seems possible, question is could they have disabled ELTs first (and would they have bothered if intending to hit somewhere else anyway).

C)Indian Ocean if you want to make it hard to be found, this could be the pilot wanting it to be a long time to have cause discovered so his estranged family don't suffer, but arguably a dive at Vne into ground in remote jungle with lots of fuel still on board possibly with some erratic inputs, less planned and muffled struggle sounds on CVR (and maybe even a radio call suggesting distress) in case it survives would seem simpler unless he really wanted to keep a mystery alive. So possible but frankly seems unlikely. I would remain sceptical of any conjecture based on his t-shirts, family situation, etc as I suspect a sizeable proportion of professional pilots who won't ever plan or execute a complex disappearance have personal lives which could be construed as indicative of latent dissatisfaction with something. Now if his flight sim happens to have a route corresponding to route flown and relevant recent manual extracts, then we might reconsider but until then nothing to me supports this.

D)Or someone else who actively wants extended mystery, perhaps a true Bond villain type organisation who wants to show it can make a plane disappear... yet then apparently keeps quiet? Of course they may be in secret discussions as to what they want with some vague threat to repeat if motive is financial and they seriously think (unlikely) they can elude most of the world's co-ordinated efforts to track them. Seems unlikely.

E)Personally I doubt whether a religious or political fanatical terrorist organisation would go to such systematic lengths and not want a show either with a dramatic climax or publicly claiming responsibility and I suspect all chatter from all known such organisations has been minutely scrutinised for any hint. Time may reveal more, but if something useful were known or even suspected, there would be a lot of pressure to reveal at least something by now to allay public unease that authorities didn't have a clue.

F)Or a true "terrorist" wanting extended uncertainty - I suspect many rational pilots and passengers are more uneasy about flying and this may give a similar knock to aviation as 9/11. Perhaps a fanatical environmental group unheard of previously, many environmental activists are intelligent people with the wit I guess to access information, and off the radar (no pun intended) of conventionally blinkered security services. A recent BBC Horizon as it happened showed a group of trained US security people all failed to spot a similar threat and only a newbie did as the experienced analysts all looked for the usual suspects. Worryingly it seems hard to rule this out, though I suspect if it were correct, it is unlikely to be repeated, which if appreciated makes it less worrying, I suppose! Possible but also seems unlikely.

G) Interestingly the northern track plus any flying beyond last "ping" gives a good chance of aircraft being in China. Now given that China was the original destination, and the passengers were naturally full of people who know the country, it is not impossible that there was a plan to throw people off the scent then head back to a point in China for some purpose. Now just suppose (admittedly no evidence I have seen to support this) Chinese military discovered it some time after it had first entered Chinese airspace then hastily intercepted and shot it down. Would they A) freely admit to the watching world their air defences are porous and that they have just shot down an aircraft with hundreds of their own citizens on board or B) keep quiet and go on the offensive and criticise another county's incompetence for the incident? I don't know and it would be speculation from me or anyone else without inside knowledge to pursue this thought, but I can't quite see yet why this can be ruled out.

Before anyone shouts (although it seems this may be summarily deleted) I fully accept there is no evidence (to my knowledge) convincingly supporting or disproving any of these theories yet, which is my point. It would be good if at least some of them could be concisely sensibly rejected with even a single hard fact, rather than just someone else's supposition that they are unlikely. I personally don't see a better explanation out there yet, though there may be one. So applying Sherlock's principle, one of these unlikely theories for an unlikely event may be correct. I fear however, hoping to be proved wrong, that the only fact which will do the trick is the finding of the aircraft, which may take some time.

[glenbrook]

The only thought more appalling than the fact of this tragedy, is the terrible thought that we may never know what happened.

If, as seems to be accepted, someone deliberately turned off all comms and flew the a/c seven hours away from the original flight path, then it's a reasonable conclusion that they do not want it to be found.

I assume all circuits in a modern aircraft have circuit breakers. This presumably includes the CVR/CDR. It would seem logical to hit that breaker as well. That would be the ultimate insult to the victims, assuming the airframe is ever found.

[brika]

Reasons not to stop searching in the South China Sea

You may be right. Not to forget Malaysian police reporting hearwitness accounts of a loud bang near coast off Kota Bharu.

[Evey_Hammond]

Not sure if anyone here has given Tomnod a go or not - I have but found it annoying that I couldn't see where my map related to / the actual area I was searching. I figured if someone has a theory of where the plane went down then it would be nice to be able to search that specific area, not just a randomly generated map.

I saw someone post a way round this so thought I'd share it incase anyone is interested. I can't see this info in the thread already so hopefully this post will stay!


Load a map at Tomnod (http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014)

Change the word "challenge" in the url to "api". This brings up a page with the latitude & longitude on it which you can then google. You can then decide whether to search this area or select "Jump to random map" and start the process again :)

[brika]

changing challenge to upi brings up page not found.

[rigbyrigz]

With CNN covering other matters, I switched on FOX and Judge Pirro's 2 hour MH370 special. BTW, some of the annoying "talking heads" and hosts/hostesses on TV make the most annoying folks in this forum (probably including me) seem like Mother Teresa...

...interviewing her 2nd "guest expert" she started off a query with "we know there was a unexpected turn pre-programmed into the flight..." - the guest started to say "thats not clear" and she argues "yes it is" and (with host perogative) changes the subject and moves forward.

SO I grant you this is an un-sourced issue (reported by ABC NEWS and FOX and "their sources") that could make this less than a FACT.

That "maybe fact" and the timing of the off-ACARS-14-minutes-transponder-THEN "alright goodnight" has had me convinced for some time that deliberate actions not electro-mechanical mishap (like coffee or batteries) is afoot. The authorities who have seen other data appear to believe this, though I dont trust them and I dont exactly rule out a KAL shootdown mentality in this day and age.

SO: has anyone sourced a reliable time-sensible unexpected-pre-programmed-turn?
Reliable is of course the operative word.

[Evey_Hammond]

api not upi :)

[mocoman]

What has been of most concern is the seeming insistence to not adhere to a single timeframe.

Why has UTC not been used since day 1 to describe events?

The first few days were a catalogue of mistaken timezones.

:mad:

[V-Jet]

For those who think the captain's home simulator is a red flag due to how complete it appears, take a quick look at Viperpit(s).org. You'll see multiple examples of F-16 cockpits that put the captain as well as Hollywood to shame, complete with fully operational displays, gauges, buttons and switches, all connected to free software (BMS 4.32) that does a damn good job of simulating an F-16C Block 50/52.



The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy.

I do NOT understand why someone with as much experience as this guy flying the real thing would build such a box, let alone use it! He could have used the Sim's at work, clearly he was senior enough to probably even bring friends in if he particularly wanted to.

I understand fighter combat sims and the like - they are good fun, but it is always acknowledged they are toys. In fact the 'good' sims to my mind are the ones that don't pretend to be anything else.

I accept there might be weirdo anorak wearing pilots out there who might want to make a cardboard (although cardboard is accurate, and most pilots have used them in basic training), milk carton, string and elastic band box painted to look like the one you are forced to spend 1000 hours a year in, but in 30 years I have NEVER met one personally. He clearly spent money on it, and for what it is its no doubt good, but if you have kids and don't fly I would liken it to something 'Mr Maker' on TV would create in comparison to a real FFS, let alone the aircraft.

That sim would give you basic terrain awareness - though no more than Google Earth and I would assume Flight Management Computer functions. NOTHING else would even remotely be like 'the real thing' nor even the 'real' MAS sim the guy could access whenever he wanted to. Any 'practice' he would get from that construction would be considered (IMHO) 'Negative Training'. In other words, using it would lessen your physical flying skills on the 'real thing'.

Ive got 15,000 odd hours in Boeings and extra in full flight sims. The last thing I would be doing is building one at home so I can pretend I am at work when I am at home. I have enough manuals to read already without having to create others myself to explain to me how to fly a box I built for fun:):)

As an aside, I spoke with a mate of mine who flies tripplers and I asked him how his gold stealing plans are progressing. He said he would have 50-60 tonnes on board every time he takes off from one particular airport but T7's are actually quite hard to hide. He's not giving the problem his full attention obviously, but it's not something you would just wake up one night and think 'Ive got a really great idea to try sometime'...

[XB70_Valkyrie]

My understanding was that ELTs had automatic function -other than manual, impact and water. Could someone deactivate all, including fixed ELT near tail?

Secondly, does Cospas-Sarsat monitor the southern Indian Ocean area?

re cospas-sarsat, yes.

But given all of the other recent evidence (that the satcom may have been transmitting after the a/c would have been out of fuel) it is less likely that it crashed and more likely that it landed, so the ELT is unlikely to have been automatically activated.

Now if one of the pax had their own 406 MHz PLB....

[ana1936]

as per previous posts, it seems likely that the Australian JORN radar system was not operating at the time

[VR-HFX]

One small thing that caught my eye in this sea of dross and odd bits of logic was post #1388.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=217116208486081&set=vb.216929135171455&type=2&theater

How does the security camera video footage from inside the terminal get onto facebook in such short order?

[ana1936]

Also see map from earlier ...

http://www.csse.uwa.edu.au/%7Emark/personal/MH370/australia.png

Red circle is 40 degree arc for IOR. Blue is limit of 6 hours flight from Phuket at 900km/h. Pink is limit of coverage of POR. White is 3000km radar coverage from Laverton.

So there are places on the red arc which are reachable by 8:11am but not covered by JORN.

[glendalegoon]

I realize I'm flying pretty low tech planes by some standards but PLEASE TELL ME HOW SOMEONE KNOWS IF THERE IS PREPROGRAMMED TURN IN the FMS without having the FMS present?

rigbyrigs, how does someone know without being on the plane if it is pre programmed?

I don['t know

anyone?

[V-Jet]

Much like Huck Finn in Tom Sawyer;

WHY would you fly South?

Suicide = why wait?
Ditch = why risk it? - bloody dangerous if there is no reason.
Time = risk of discovery/(some) crew getting back control?

[DCrefugee]

The US has ample satellite means of reconnaissance to identify the plane, if it ws at any known airport. An off-airport landing would likely trigger the ELT, unless it can be deactivated in flight. It can't on my plane.

I can easily arm or disarm my ELT from the left seat...

I can't envision the airplane getting into or beyond Pakistan or any of the other 'stans without U.S. surveillance assets seeing it. Same for the respective militaries of India and China and their territories. But that doesn't mean it's not there. They may have seen it but not recognized it for what it was, or they allowed it in with full knowledge of what was going on.

For one thing, it's not impossible to file and fly as a different aircraft, even one operated by a government, with full ATC knowledge. And it's unlikely any U.S. surveillance assets were looking in the right direction at the right time to pick out this T7 from the clutter, but there may have been some non-scheduled flights acting like a big Boeing. I think theories about it tailgating another aircraft are a bit far-fetched because of the skills required, but masquerading as yet another Boeing doesn't seem all that difficult.

At the end of the day, if this isn't a result of a mechanical failure, a botched hijacking that ended over water, or suicide, it's a very sophisticated and well-executed plan, to an unknown end. If so, the airplane likely is on the ground somewhere, well-camouflaged or hangared, perhaps having landed before dawn at a secluded location, like a military base. That means state actor, or at least someone acting with a government's tacit approval and a sophisticated, well -planned, -disguised and -implemented endeavor. So far.

Who has the resources and testicular fortitude to plan and pull this off?

Ultimately, though, I think the highest probability here is Captain Speaking did a deadstick lawn dart into the IO, and some trace will be identified in 48 hours or so.

[Neogen]

Originally Posted by Sheep Guts
Reasons not to stop searching in the South China Sea

They dont want to search that area despite all the eyewitness account and other evidence points to that direction. Reason, someone doesnt want the truth to come out on what they did to MH370.

[Taildragger67]

People sorry if this has already been discussed on any of the previous 171 pages of this thread, but:

what does the centre point of those arcs represent and how was it determined?

Thanks

[galaxy flyer]

Been covered, it's the geosynchronous satellite position.

Please resize the graphic

[techgeek]

Hmmm tomnod hasn't given up on the S China Sea

[rigbyrigz]

foxnewsinsider.com NOW joins ABC NEWS in reporting the "pre-programmed turn":

"Investigators believe that someone intentionally switched off the jetliner’s tracking devices and then flew the plane for several hours. The left turn that was made was reportedly pre-programmed into the plane’s navigational computer, raising a lot of questions."

I somewhat agree with BARREL questioning that, and the timing, as the 40 degree course correction occurred at the waypoint first, and the ACARS was gone by then. (although I suggested a convoluted workaround possibility).

I wish ABC NEWS and now FOX would confirm this reliably, name a source, whatever. Its NOT a trivial point!

UPDATE to GLENDALE. The event log for ACARS supposedly shows the FMC entry. Thats why the timing of the ACARS system being alive/active, and other entries, is so critical now.

[MarkJJ]

Someone smarter than me post the Asia chart

http://www.planningcharts.de/index.php?option=com_jdownloads&Itemid=3&task=finish&cid=35&catid=17&m=0

[ana1936]

The IOR satellite which heard the pings is more than 38000km straight above a point at 64E on the equator. That point is the centre of the red circle. If a circle is drawn with that centre it represents points that are equidistant from IOR.

The ping at 8:11am came from a point on that red circle.

[cockpitvisit]

I find it strange that investigators talk about two possible routes based on Inmarsat pings. These are not routes, but merely candidates for the final resting point (+/- one hour's movement).

My understanding is that the satellite logged the signal round-trip time, which allowed to calculate the distance between the airplane and the satellite. So for every one of these 6 pings, there is a ring on the Earth surface where the airplane must have been during the ping. The portions of the ring that are too far away for the fuel load are cut away, and so we get the curve on the map as shown by investigators.

From the 6 pings, there must be 6 different rings. But we are only shown curves from a single ring (probably from the final one). Is there any information about the other 5 pings? It would at least help determine the lateral motion of the plane (how much it moved "towards" or "away" from the satellite).

If all 6 pings had the same round-trip time, it probably means the plane stood still (maybe flying a holding pattern until the fuel ran out). It is very improbable that the plane was programmed to fly a curve that would keep the same distance from the Inmarsat satellite for hours. This isn't a Great Circle route at all.

Unless of course the whole Inmarsat story is a cover for a leak from intelligence sources.

[Lost in Saigon]

I realize I'm flying pretty low tech planes by some standards but PLEASE TELL ME HOW SOMEONE KNOWS IF THERE IS PREPROGRAMMED TURN IN the FMS without having the FMS present?

rigbyrigs, how does someone know without being on the plane if it is pre programmed?

I don['t know

anyone?

Yes, we now have news media reporting that the Malaysians are saying the turn was "Pre-programmed". What they aren't aren't saying is how they know this.

I fly the B777 and I can't think of a way for anyone to know what was programmed on the FMC of MH 370.

Some airlines can upload a flight plan directly to the aircraft, but even so, the pilot has to request the upload and activate the route.

This just seems to me like more bad information and more bad media reporting.

[glenbrook]

The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy.

I do NOT understand why someone with as much experience as this guy flying the real thing would build such a box, let alone use it! He could have used the Sim's at work, clearly he was senior enough to probably even bring friends in if he particularly wanted to.



I agree, it makes no sense at all. There is nothing he could learn from it for any conceivable purpose. A man goes home from work and then starts playing on his sim, which is the same as his work???
It is quite bizarre, and indicates someone obsessed.

[MrDK]

@YYZjim Professional pilots should bear in mind that the MH370 S&R fiasco will likely result in the public's demanding changes. It might be wise for professional pilots to propose their own solution, rather than wait for governments and regulators to impose new rules. Perhaps the pilots' unions should propose that:
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.
This service would:
1. increase the difficulty of a third-party hijacking;
2. protect all pilots from the stain on them which may remain if the mystery of MH370 is never sorted out; and
3. provide much comfort to future passengers.

Damn straight, Sir

This probably warrants a thread of its own as it is not necessarily unique to this event (thought it will be triggered by it).

From a technical point of view the frequency of transmissions need not be in static intervals.
Transponder signals are somewhat continuous (short intervals).
ACARS can be dynamic in intervals depending on the "health" of the airframe. If all is good space them out or if faults/irregularities are detected send as often as possible.

While in flight, I see no reason that anyone should have control over that type of communication.

[hillberg]

"Thunder Ball"
Sooner not later they will cut back the searches, A notoice will come out "Please watch out for XYZ"
It's all about money, Not people. CYA not the truth.
The insurance carriers, Joint power Authorities & your Corrupt public officals will lead the way.

That plane can sit in 2 conditions.
1, Hijacked in one peice waittin for the payout.
2, Hijacked in a watery or dry smokin hole. Someone goofed.
3, Used as a weapon & blown out of the sky. Nobody wants to come clean.
Door 1, 2 or 3

[Mahatma Kote]

Can the transponder on a 777 have its ID changed during flight?

That is is it possible to change the ICAO aircraft unique serial number and/or aircraft identification parameters.

If so, is it feasible MH370 was 'rebirthed' while out of civil radar range and entered new airspace as a different aircraft?

[D.S.]

Sheep Guts (http://www.pprune.org/members/21885-sheep-guts) says

Reasons not to stop searching in the South China Sea

1. Last SSR 01:22 am near IGARI waypointLast sightings (both military and civilian radar, plus eye witness accounts) had it back both over and past the peninsula after that time

2. Very descriptive eyewitness account from the Song Mercur Oil Rig off Vung Tau. Which was checked by 1 Veitnam Aircraft only, no sea or sea floor sonar search ever done to date.http://tvaraj.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/location-of-aircraft-last-seen-on-radar-screen-and-eye-witness-location-of-crash2.jpg?w=584&h=318

he was 370 miles away. I don't know how many more times that can be stressed! His account is not creditable in the sense of "having anything to do with this investigation."

Plus, Vietnam told Malaysia on day 1 they watched the plane turn around, so it is not like it would have continued moving towards him - if anything, that distance would have been greater than 370 when he claims to have seen who knows what


3. The 40 degree IOR Satellite ring passes through the same area South Veitnam coast . Which is only being discounted for one reason radar coverage. The last ping at 08:11 am was on this 40 degree ring. Some reports saying all the pings came from 1 place. Yes they did come from one place, the wreckage in the South China Sea until it sunk some time after 08:11am.By 8:11 there were ships, planes and satellites searching the area. How exactly did they miss a 777 sitting on the sea surface? (let alone one only 30-75 meters below the surface if it did actually sink)


...so the question is, do you have a real actually factual reason to search there, or is it just a gut feeling telling us to continue to search the very small body of very shallow water for more than the 8 days 14 countries already searched it?

[Airbubba]

Israel Prepares for Possible Attack by Hijacked Malaysian Plane

As terrorism fears grow in Malaysian plane case, Israeli officials increase already-tight precautions

By Times of Israel staff and AP March 16, 2014, 9:41 pm EDT

Israel has tightened security in its airspace following the disappearance and possible hijacking of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 on March 8, Channel 2 reported Sunday.

According to the report, security officials and aviation authorities recently held a security assessment and decided upon a series of security measures intended to enhance safety in Israeli airspace.

Among the measures, airliners are now required to identify themselves much earlier when approaching Israel’s airspace. [anybody see this yet in a NOTAM? - Airbubba] Other actions were not disclosed at this time.

The increased security came as El Al’s former global security chief told The Times of Israel he believes that the disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines flight points directly to Iran.

Israel tightens airspace security after jet's disappearance | The Times of Israel (http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-tightens-airspace-security-after-jets-disappearance/)

Once again, obviously there is still very much that is not being disclosed publically. :eek:

[D.S.]

DCrefugee (http://www.pprune.org/members/302131-dcrefugee) said

Not my understanding of the public information. ACARS was shut down shortly after feet wet and before Malaysian ATC bid the flight farewell. Shortly after which the transponder(s) was/were disabled.

The SATCOM system, however, continued to function, in a sort of keep-alive mode, but did not pass flight or aircraft data to the satellite(s). It's the last of those recurring signals that Inmarsat has plotted along roughly the 40N arcs.

It is a ACARS transmitted data collection though, from everything I understand

Don't have time right now to search for a better mention, but here is a quick one at least

Modern aircraft can communicate with airline operations bases and sometimes with the headquarters of its manufacturers automatically in order to send maintenance alerts known as ACARS messages. It was this system that sent out the regular ping, which may have lasted for several hours, the sources said.

[ana1936]

cockpitvisit

The ping information released was only from the final 8:11am ping. Info about the earlier pings has not been released although there was apparently some unconfirmed rumour from CNN earlier this morning that the previous ping was from the same distance as the last.

The pings do just give us distance from satellite (based on signal travel time).

Yes, the investigators must have other rings for earlier pings.

The fact that POR and AORE did not hear pings at 8:11am rules out parts of the red circle. Travel distance also helps a little.

That gives two red arcs: north and south.

The plane either went to the north arc or the south one. Thus there are loosely two ``routes''.

[rigbyrigz]

Role of ACARS event log:

"Event Log – In near real-time, the event log gives you a view of what is happening
in your fleet worldwide. From data taken from the Aircraft Management System and
transmitted through the EFB channel, you can determine what aircraft are on, in,
out or off. You can also access communications open/close events, view messages
sent or received, or determine when new content has been downloaded for transfer to
an aircraft."

(of course ACRS must be ON/active!!!)

[Mach2point7]

ana1936 posted some time ago:
"The red arcs are determined just by working out the accurate distance of the ping source from one single satellite (IOR).

The ping messages are very accurately timestamped using very accurate clocks at both ends. Even though this communication system is not for GPS purposes it uses similarly accurate clocks. So we know that the plane was, say 38000km, from the satellite at 0:11Z.

That gives a circle on the surface of the earth.(The so-called 40 degree circle).

No other satellites could be used as there are only four satellites altogether in space listening for ACARS pings. They do not cover the relevant longitudes: they are below the horizon from most of the Indian Ocean and middle Eurasia.

The fact that that the other satellites (POR and AOR-E) did not hear the 0:11Z ping rules out some chunks of the red circle.

This leaves the two red arcs."

ana1936 - your posts have been first class. Are you satisfied with the gap between the two red arcs and that it appears that POR did not pickup the ping? Perhaps, being near the extreme range limits of POR, it can be acceptable that the ping was not received ??

[galaxy flyer]

Can the "pings" be used to discern azimuth o those arcs? I understand how the arcs are defined, but is it just an assumption that the plane moved "around" the arc or is there a azimuth solution?

[clayne]

From http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/malaysia-pilot-t-shirt-fuels-talk-hijacked-flight-article-1.1723724 (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/malaysia-pilot-t-shirt-fuels-talk-hijacked-flight-article-1.1723724#ixzz2wBIibkdQ):

"The mystery of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet deepened Sunday as a photo surfaced of its pilot wearing a T-shirt with the slogan “Democracy is Dead” and searchers set course for the Indian Ocean.

The T-shirt further fueled fears that Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah, an ardent supporter of jailed Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, hijacked Flight 370 along its path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in an act of anti-government protest."


So let me get this straight. Because the Captain is wearing a shirt declaring "Democracy is Dead" in protest of the overall UMNO/BN approach to government (and the obvious treatment of Ibrahim), and is a supporter of Ibrahim he is now more strongly considered to be some kind of hijacking suspect? What century are we in?

The pilot's viewpoints on politics and support of PKR are nothing special. There's quite a sizable contingent of people in MY with the same opinions and support for the opposition has been growing for years.

Secondly, Anwar Ibrahim is *not* jailed. The accuracy of modern media and "journalism" these days is just flat out appalling. It's no longer about being precise or accurate - it's completely driven by eyeballs.

Terrorists have won, haven't they? Time to burn some witches.

[jugofpropwash]

The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy.

I do NOT understand why someone with as much experience as this guy flying the real thing would build such a box, let alone use it! He could have used the Sim's at work, clearly he was senior enough to probably even bring friends in if he particularly wanted to.

If the information that's been made public is accurate, it appears that the flight was very carefully planned to avoid radar detection - and it's possible that some of it was done at a low altitude in the dark. Further, depending on exactly where they went, the northern arc might have mountains to dodge.

Seems like if someone was going to try something like that, they would want to practice that route until it was automatic - the same way that various emergency procedures are practiced. And I can't imagine that they would want to do it on the simulator at work.

[Space Jet]

Here are some acars reports, these were taken off a site that streams acars online

ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: .VH-OQC Operational Coms
Message label: 87 Block id: 1 Msg. no: U58A
Flight id: QF0012
Message content:-
TO OPERATIONS
DELAY. LAST DOOR CLOSED ON SCHEDULE HOWEVER JUST AFTER DOOR CLOSURE
ECAM FOR SURV-WX RADAR AND TAWS. SPOKE WITH ENGINEER AND COMPLETED
A RESET. PUSHED BACK AT 0602
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 06:30]

ACARS mode: S Aircraft reg: .CC-CQF System Status
Message label: H1 Block id: 0 Msg. no: C18A
Flight id: LA0801
Message content:-
#CFB.1/WRN/WN1403152001 732102506MAINTENANCE STATUS ECU3 CHAN A
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 07:00]

ACARS mode: S Aircraft reg: .CC-CQF
Message label: H1 Block id: 1 Msg. no: C19A
Flight id: LA0801
Message content:-
#CFB.1/WRN/WN1403152001 732103006MAINTENANCE STATUS ECU3 CHAN B
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 07:00]

ACARS mode: S Aircraft reg: .VH-OJU Inbound With PAX Details
Message label: 86 Block id: 4 Msg. no: M05A
Flight id: QF0108
Message content:-
ARI
ETAB 2125YSSY
WHLCHR 02 / MED
ASST MINORS PAX
SICK N
SI NO TO AQIS.
h M O $O
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 07:45]

ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: .VH-OJU AMDAR Weather Report - Lat,Long,Alt,Turbulence etc
Message label: H1 Block id: 5 Msg. no: D26A
Flight id: QF0108
Message content:-
#2TBKLAXYSSY
AMDAR 1521
D3330S15305E2101F340M507272041008
D3337S15251E2103F301M401281029009
D3343S15239E2104F266M308298025010
D3349S15229E2106F236M235303035009
D3354S15219E2108F208M168299034007
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 08:08]

ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: .VH-OGR Engine Report
Message label: H1 Block id: Msg. no: D004
Flight id: QF0091
Message content:-
#2UBBLD-TKO
VH-OGR QFA0091
2207 15MAR14 SYD- NOU- CL 7 VER026
LEFT ENG RIGHT ENG
======== =========
CL NO CL NO HPSOV POS
NC NO NC NO PRV POS
98 1
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 09:11]
ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: .VH-OGR
Message label: H1 Block id: Msg. no: D005
Flight id: QF0091
Message content:-
#2UB00 PRV EXIT PRESS
NC NO NC NO FAV POS
H H TEMP RANGE FLG
181 196 FATS TEMP
NC NO NC NO PRSOV POS
0 0 ISO VALV
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 09:11]

[ICT_SLB]

A question to Lost in Saigon,
Is there (or was there ever) an Emergency Descent Mode available on the 777 AFCS? Some of the more recent systems initiate a 90 degree turn away from the programmed heading followed by a maximum rate descent to around 10,000 feet after a cabin depressurisation is detected.
The similarity of this scenario to the latest version of MA370's possible flight plan - even to matching the SATCOM line of position - bears review.

[Lost in Saigon]

A question to Lost in Saigon,
Is there (or was there ever) an Emergency Descent Mode available on the 777 AFCS? Some of the more recent systems initiate a 90 degree turn away from the programmed heading followed by a maximum rate descent to around 10,000 feet after a cabin depressurisation is detected.
The similarity of this scenario to the latest version of MA370's possible flight plan - even to matching the SATCOM line of position - bears review.

None that I know of, and certainly not on the B777 fleet that I fly.

[ana1936]

Thanks.

One answer …

The gap between the red arcs over south east asia can be explained because those points lie well within the coverage of the Pacific INMARSAT POR.

http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/I-3-satellite-coverage-November-2013.jpg

The Malaysian SAR map

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiwPWMOCYAAG3ZC.jpg:large

omits red over that area and puts dashed lines in the region under POR coverage.

Thus we assume that the expert teams are satisfied that POR would have picked up the 8:11am ping if it was in that region and that it did not.

Obviously there must be some fuzziness to the ends of the arcs and the POR region because a satellite which is very low over the horizon but still above it may not pick up a signal.

However, when you look at places on the arcs at e.g. the south coast of Vietnam then the POR satellite is at about 10 degrees apparent height and it should have heard a ping.

[XB70_Valkyrie]

glenbrook

having a nice computer sim at home isn't out of the question for an experienced pilot.

I wanted to make up one for the plane I was on but it was too expensive. I am after all a cheap airline pilot.

Having a sim at home allows someone to run and rerun scenarios. Obviously the control feedback isn't the same as a real a/c or sim but the visual fidelity is certainly there, especially compared to say an older Thales sim (I was just in a Thales B747-400 sim).

But the FMS/FD/FMC are terribly dumbed down on most of the PC sims.

[ana1936]

GF

I think that we can conclude that the experts have no way of getting azimuth estimates from the pings.

They are using (very accurate) ping timings to gauge the distance between aircraft and satellite.

But that just gives you a circle of candidate locations on the earth.

(As I have said, bits of the circle can be ruled out by using other reasoning, e.g. lack of ping receipt by other satellites and time of flight).

[LASJayhawk]

Ana1936

Would you hazard a guess to the accuracy of the location? Within a degree, maybe 2?

I mean if the plane was a degree or so west, it would be out of view of the POR if I'm reading the map right. Could that be withing the margin of error?

[rigbyrigz]

The B737 I know is the following op guide. I assume the 777 is much more elegant and automated.

Automatic Downlinks
The FMC can be configured by the airline to automatically transmit downlinks of
FMC data at predetermined points during the flight or in response to specific
information requests from the airline dispatcher. The FMC response in these cases
is completely automatic and no crew action is necessary.

[ana1936]

Accuracy of location from pings.

My understanding is that "width" of the circle on the earth corresponding to timing/distance measurements (satellite to aircraft) could be very small. Satellite messages often have very accurate clocks on each end.

The accuracy of limits of the gap area, the missing arc over SE asia under POR coverage, would be much less. With POR at a very low altitude above the horizon the possibilities for signal transmission may be affected by the surrounding landscape.

Eg, you may be in a valley in Vietnam and POR is above the hypothetical 0 degree horizon but is obscured by a mountain.

[Taioma]

Apparently these modern aircraft have a "secret" compartment underfloor that even pilots are unaware of......if so, why ?

[Airbubba]

Has anyone mentioned the possibility of an offline jumpseater (pilot) and perhaps more than one jumpseater?

I searched the threads and found no reference.

With overseas airlines, something similar to the American concept of an offline jumpseat rider is very rare in my experience. Sometimes you might be allowed to ride in the cockpit on a full aircraft but you still have to buy a ticket (BTDT on LH years ago).

As you perhaps know, there was some offline jumpseat involvement in the planning for the 9-11 attacks.

[No Hoper]

Apparently these modern aircraft have a "secret" compartment underfloor that even pilots are unaware of......if so, why ?
That would be where the "chemtrail" solution is held.:eek:
There are no "secret" compartments.
There are access panels to? ...... yes access the internals of the aircraft for maintenance.

[volcanicash]

ana1936 said:

bits of the circle can be ruled out by using other reasoning, e.g. lack of ping receipt by other satellites and time of flight

In today’s (Sunday) press conference, the DCA Director also referred to calculations of the aircraft’s minimum and maximum speeds from last point of contact as considerations in determining the arcs.

[galaxy flyer]

ana1936,

Thanks, sir. Then is it fair to say the plane could have been "holding" for hours at any point on the arcs as well as traveling in a track that could be describing those tracks?

[Whittle]

If so, is it feasible MH370 was 'rebirthed' while out of civil radar range and entered new airspace as a different aircraft?

Mahatma Kote: I hope others will answer that (because I can't) but in conjunction with or separately from that there surely has to be a possibility that this aircraft is sitting in a hangar or other enclosure somewhere and is being repainted. If it is to be used for something clandestine then it will not emerge as a Malaysian Airlines plane but in the colours of another airline. A bit like the process that a stolen car goes through, except in this case, at least externally, it would somewhat easier (other than the scale of the paint job), because airlines like to advertise themselves in distinctive livery. Under those conditions, surely, more checks would have to be made in any interception. I hope that susceptible countries are alert to this possibility. Yes, it is only a possibility, but someone needs to be thinking outside the box and I haven't seen that possibility mentioned (forgive me if it has been).

[LASJayhawk]

ana1936

Understood. The "look angle" might also come into play. IE if the aircraft was flying north along the red line, but was banked left wing low the fuselage might shroud the antenna from the POR satellite with it that low in the sky.

[macilrae]

cockpitvisit (http://www.pprune.org/members/44918-cockpitvisit)

"From the 6 pings, there must be 6 different rings. But we are only shown curves from a single ring (probably from the final one). Is there any information about the other 5 pings? It would at least help determine the lateral motion of the plane (how much it moved "towards" or "away" from the satellite)"

Maybe somebody has explained this already but you are absolutely right - we have to assume 'they' only had the transit time for that single last ping - if not there would seemingly be a treasure trove of further information from the other pings. However I think we can rely on 'them' to have extracted every last scrap of useful data.

[techgeek]

@D.S.

ADS-C can send route data either on a periodic basis or if changed:

Predicted Route Group

Latitude at next waypoint
Longitude at next waypoint
Altitude at next waypoint
ETA at next waypoint
Latitude at next +1 wpt
Longitude at next +1 wpt
Altitude at next +1 wpt


If so equipped and engaged the a/c could send this data w/o pilot knowledge. ADS-C update with info listed above would be sent from plane to ground automatically when the pilot changed the next or next +1 WPT.

I'm not saying this is what happened. Just saying that what has been reported is possible.

[Suastiastu]

@Galaxy Flyer
There is no suggestion that the aircraft moved "around the arcs" - the arcs represent a set of positions where the aircraft may have been on the last hour's ping transmission.
I would be really interested to know the arcs where the aircraft may have been on each of the proceeding hours' ping transmissions.

[onetrack]

To those asking about the ELKA ATHINA story, reported in various media as "the Elka Athina has reportedly picked up suitcases from the Malacca Straits" - the media have once again done a superb job of distortion.

The ELKA ATHINA was directed to keep an eye open, for possible wreckage that could include items such as suitcases, by the Indonesians. It was requested to do so as part of the SAR efforts in the Malacca Straits.

No report has come in from the ELKA ATHINA as to any wreckage sighting, so we can presume at this point, the crew of the ELKA ATHINA have seen nothing.

Back to the smoking holes 30' in diameter, the tinfoil hats, the crystal balls and the aliens .... :(

[galaxy flyer]

Ah, the arc only describes the possible location of the last ping; not the 6 pings we heard of?

[Kulwin Park]

It sounds like the world has a BROKEN ARROW on its hands - like in the movie with John Travolta, where plane is hijacked for its cargo :suspect:

[Shadoko]

Tomrod site :
Tomnod (http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014/map/637975)

Are the a/c flying visible on the pictures? On the pic from the link above, on the "submap" 637975 (it is the fifth rectangle from the right edge, and the twentyfourth from the bottom), there is an "intact" a/c, even visible as a very small white point on the thumbnail map). And I don't see its shadow, but there is a black "band" on the pic, just west of the a/c.

From the api vs chalenge link, it this one : "id":637524,"overlay_id":1272,"lat":11.603921,"lon":92.775247,"status":1,"msg":"Retrieved map ID = 637524"

[mickjoebill]

Australian PM just announced that he received a request from Malaysian PM a short time ago for Australia to take command of the search of the "Southern vector".
Oz PM says the Australian Government will "do its duty" toward those in the "ill fated flight".
More Oz maritime resources were offered and accepted today.

After the PM's statement, the opposition leader offered condolences to the families, extraordinary and rather direct message to announce in public unless you know that all the families have given up hope....

[Space Jet]

@Shadoko :eek:

Thats near Port Blair... :eek:

[Mahatma Kote]

This site Radar Basics (http://www.radartutorial.eu/13.ssr/sr04.en.html)

Provides an excellent in-depth explanation of current radar technology, especially the capabilities and operational characteristics of primary radar and secondary radar.

Many of the questions asked on this thread are answered quite clearly and simply on the site.

The link is to secondary radar entry, but the site covers a lot more.

The little green << and >> symbols help you navigate the site.

[ana1936]

My understanding is that the investigation team has the (distance/angle) data from all six(?) pings but has only publicly released the last one.

However, apparently CNN started reporting a few hours ago that the second last ping was from approximately the same angle as the last one. But they (I think mistakenly) thought that that meant the plane had stopped and apparently they have gone silent on this since then.

To repeat, all we know is that at 8:11am the plane was on (or crossing) one of the red arcs.

The public know nothing about where is was before that. The experts will know a bit more from the previous pings.

And not even the experts know where it was after 8:11am.

Except we can guess that something happened to the plane before about 9:11am.

[LASJayhawk]

Shadoko. That looks like a 777-200

Anyone know what the time stamp is referenced to?

[Airbubba]

Are the a/c flying visible on the pictures? On the pic from the link above, on the "submap" 637975 (it is the fifth rectangle from the right edge, and the twentyfourth from the bottom), there is an "intact" a/c, even visible as a very small white point on the thumbnail map). And I don't see its shadow, but there is a black "band" on the pic, just west of the a/c.


That looks to me like a B-737 or the P-8A maritime patrol aircraft variant.

[auraflyer]

It sounds like the world has a BROKEN ARROW on its hands - like in the movie with John Travolta, where plane is hijacked for its cargo

No, BROKEN ARROW is a US term for a specific incident -- an accident involving a nuke that is not likely to cause nuclear reprisals. Look it up, along with BENT SPEAR.

[JanetFlight]

Shadoko, thats an Airbus 320/319.

[Space Jet]

@LASJayhawk

Time the photo was taken

[Heli-phile]

The arc's showing north and south 'routes' potential locations for the final SATCOM 'ping' are only very approximate guides. Added to this, in the most extreme scenario the final 'ping' could have been sent up to 59 mins before the aircraft had actually landed or its engines were shutdown or had flamed out. (I.E. final event could potentially occur only 1 minute before the next ping was due to be transmitted)
This being the case we need to add that extra 59mins potential range, so at 480kts add another 480nm!
Also if still at altitude and the engines flamed out on this 59th minute then at FL390 you could easily add an additional glide distance of a further 150nm. (still air) Therefore, in this extreme scenario there is (very roughly) a potential further 630nm of omni directional error. Effectively you can redraw these arcs, giving them a 630nm radius (or put another way 1260nm wide!) Perhaps someone could apply these distance and post the revised arc's.

[milkandhoney]

Tomnod's data all relates to the 9th of March. Their initial batch was just in a different location to the second. So that plane in that segment was flying in that spot on the 9th of March.

[Sheep Guts]

ANA,
CNNs report may refer to the fact it was stationary wreckage the ping was coming from.Thats why it was the same angle.

Anyway let's wait see what eventuates. It's pure lunacy to start searching the Indian Ocean after not even properly covering the sea floor in South China, majority of the search has been by air. They need sea craft in the area.

Gosh I've had enough of this thread bye bye and good luck to all concerned.
My hearts condolences and sympathy to all the families affected.

[onetrack]

@Kulwin Park - We have only a few clues of substance, and a lot of missing information. Trying to draw conclusions without all the information that is currently in the hands of top investigators is pretty fruitless.

We can rely on this much. It's not what we are being told, it is what we are deliberately NOT being told, or what is being obfuscated.

To recap:

1. The aircraft made repeated and obviously well-directed attempts at total concealment. In that respect it has been superbly successful.
Whether those well-directed attempts were by hijackers directing the Captain or FO, or by the Capt of FO acting of their own volition, isn't known.

2. Cockpit security is the major issue here. I don't recall too many successful attempts at cockpit entry since 9/11.
Either someone used a particularly clever ruse to gain cockpit entry, or it was purely the crews efforts that made the aircraft disappear.
One FO who has been shown to have a casual attitude to cockpit security is a major concern here.

3. Nothing has effectively been stated about the cargo. The only statement issued was "there is no hazardous cargo on board".
From that statement we note that the value of the cargo was omitted.

4. Terrorists are the only people who are happy to play with hundreds of innocent people lives, like a cat plays with a mouse.
It's stretching the bounds of credibility that two professional flight crew, previously showing no signs of depression, extremist anger on forums, or all the signs of extremism (and wearing a T-shirt saying "Democracy is Dead" doesn't make you an extremist) would suddenly hijack a very large aircraft without leaving some important clues.
I've looked and looked and not seen those important clues.

5. The most likely scenario is a particularly clever hijacking by a well-organised extremist Islamic group, to a remote site, such as a dry salt lake bed, where a B777 could land successfully.
The terrorists used the Captains skills to good advantage, under threat of death. He complied because he wasn't prepared to behave like Indiana Jones.
There's not one of the 634 airstrips mentioned, where the arrival of a B777 wouldn't raise immediate concern and communication - UNLESS the terrorists had already taken over the airstrip, and silenced communications from it.

The aim of the hijack would be to secure the valuables in the hold - because terrorism requires financing, and the terrorists finances have been drying up due to increased financial systems surveillance, and the blocking of funding transfers.
The hold could likely have contained a large shipment of easily-utilised banknotes, not just gold or diamonds.

The bonus would be a free aircraft in the deal, to use as a weapon sometime in the future. It has been immediately camouflaged upon landing to facilitate the theft and the disappearance.

Feel free to shoot me down. :)

[xcitation]

@Shadoko
Tomrod site :
Tomnod

Are the a/c flying visible on the pictures? On the pic from the link above, on the "submap" 637975 (it is the fifth rectangle from the right edge, and the twentyfourth from the bottom), there is an "intact" a/c, even visible as a very small white point on the thumbnail map). And I don't see its shadow, but there is a black "band" on the pic, just west of the a/c.

From the api vs chalenge link, it this one : "id":637524,"overlay_id":1272,"lat":11.603921,"lon":92.77524 7,"status":1,"msg":"Retrieved map ID = 637524"

That does look like a 777 in flight!!!
From the time stamp it is over 24 hours after the last known contact, so probably another a/c.
If it was in the water you would see the wake/waves breaking on it.

[rigbyrigz]

RE:.....
..........
The bonus would be a free aircraft in the deal, to use as a weapon sometime in the future. It has been immediately camouflaged upon landing to facilitate the theft and the disappearance..."

Oy Vey. U make me yearn for the coffee spill theorists to come back on!

[DCThumb]

Not a 777 unfortunately, it is a 737 derivative - I have overlayed pictures of both and the wing sweep is wrong for a 777. Trying to post image...

[glendalegoon]

ONETRACK, I think you are mistaken.

regarding FO's casual attitude about cockpit security. are you aware the captain would have to "OK" visitors in the cockpit and not the first officer?

are you aware that some countries allow for cockpit visits, the USA doesn't, but it did 50 years ago, so it is not unheard of (thanks to United Convair 240 crew that let this former 8 year old boy stand in the cockpit, looking at an orange radar screen with hood)

IT IS QUITE HEALTHY in my view for a pilot, age 27, to want to have cute girls in the cockpit. FOR THE RECORD malaysian airlines didn't punish him 3 years ago and only expressed some outrage recently (a PR ploy if you ask me).

IF you want to have cute girls in the cockpit, you probably don't want to hijack your own plane.

[onetrack]

FOR THE RECORD malaysian airlines didn't punish him 3 years ago and only expressed some outrage recently (a PR ploy if you ask me)Yes - but Malaysian Airlines didn't even know about the "cockpit transgressions" until the blondes squealed to the media, to get some dollars. So how could they punish the FO if they knew nothing of the transgression?
Yes, the Malaysian PR is in full swing right about now. Wouldn't YOU be trying to soothe a LOT of nervous future SLF in their position?

The Malaysian political PR is in full swing too - they are using every attempt possible, to blacken a Captains name who just happens to be a strong supporter of an Opposition Party leader, that the ruling party wants to see eliminated for good.

[McRotor96]

A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving and taking his 3 beloved children with her. This man, a normally decent individual, is boiling with rage, frustration, humiliation and loss. His life as he sees it is over - pointless. His anger immense.

The next day, his first alone, he is on the flight. People are behaving normally. It enrages him more. He is not thinking rationally, the rage is all-consuming. He decides.

His plan is simple enough. At the appropriate point, go invisible, fly back over Malaysia and then take the plane to 45,000 feet. He doesn't want to die by smashing the plane into the water. Lack of oxygen is an easier death.

And he doesn't want it to look like suicide. He programs a flight path into the autopilot, and hopes that the plane will return from 45,000ft and follow that path until it flames out in the middle of the ocean, never to be found.

He will be missed - oh yes - his family will cry for him. They never should have left.

[glendalegoon]

one track


you don't know what malaysian did or did not know 3 years ago. and remember the captain let those girls in, the copilot didn't order the captain to let them in.

sorry charlie, it doesn't work like that. and even a horny young man of 24 (then) wouldn't throw away his new job flying a 777 to hit on some girls. it had to be "accepted" by some people in the know then

[OldDutchGuy]

In other words, it had been programmed to turn by someone in the cockpit. This aircraft did not go into a heading mode. It was a deliberate, and premeditated turn, if the investigators' leaks to the media are to be believed.

This is why they know 'conclusively' that the airplane was hijacked/piloted on its rogue course.

Sorry, Sysock, we cannot "know conclusively" what you suggest from the entry programming a turn. All we can conclude is that the turn was programmed. That part, is "fact." the "why" part is all inference. And other inferences might be drawn; for example, that it was programmed in error.

To show you what happens (inference, of course!) when you program a coding sequence in error, look at KAL 007. Yes, we cannot conclusively establish that as error, either! Although, deliberately tempting nervous and touchy Russians at the height of Cold-War tensions by flying over an off-limits Kamchatka Peninsula bristling with heavy weaponry strikes me as foolhardiness way past what any serious pilot would do. Just saying'.

And once again, I emphasize the difference between "Fact" and "inference." Specifically, we have precisely ZERO FACTS that any act here was deliberate by the flight crew. Or any passenger. Or aliens brought in by teleporting. Or much of anything else. What we KNOW as FACT is that it took off, climbed out normally, topped, levelled, went to the proper waypoint, communicated with no stress in voice - and vanished.

Everything else past that is inference. Inference is what we think "might have happened" and we are converting that, in frustration, into "what did happen." Sorry, guys, but I am not going past the facts. :(

[onetrack]

A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving and taking his 3 beloved children with her. This man, a normally decent individual, is boiling with rage, frustration, humiliation and loss. His life as he sees it is over - pointless. His anger immense

@McRotor96 - Show me where he expressed his rage. The maid has reported nothing by way of domestic disputes. The children are all adults. This was a "drifting apart" of a mature married couple - possibly because he spent more time playing on the SIM setup in the back room, rather than playing with her. So she decided to move out. It was an amicable split.
The Captains closest friend has expressed his opinion that the Captain was a fine, honourable individual, and he would fly anywhere with him. He said nothing about him being a hothead - which he would need to be to fit your scenario.

[rampstalker]

One of the post before was saying that untill the full facts are known and the investigation is made public then we really should not lay any blame on to the crew for this incident.
Malay police are investigating every one on the aircraft and involved in the dispatch of the flight. This is a normal line of investigation so untill its all out in the open and facts are proven please lets lay off the crew. They are as much victims as are the family of the crew just as the pax and pax familys.

Oh and so what if he had an F16 flight sim in his home. In some of the airlines that I have worked in the past 30 years there were many flight crews that lived and breathed flying to the extent of flight vid games and so forth. And I would say that they were all total pros too, not weirdos. To obtain and maintain the CPL cost more than an arm and a leg in the first place so anyone up front must really love his job.

Back off untill the full facts are known and proven, please.

[Shadoko]

a/c on Tomnod's site: I did not think it was in water, but on Google Earth, a/c in flight are blurred from their speed (and often with a red-green-blue "offset" because the three colors channels are registred one after the other). No colors here, because pics are one channel ones, but I am surprised there is no blur from speed. Perhaps the a/c was going to land in Port Blair? I don't find it on radar24.
Or it is kind of test to see if viewers are careful or to make some stats :) ?

[The Bullwinkle]

A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving..................His life as he sees it is over - pointless

Mmmmmm............ Not necessarily true. He could even feel relieved!!!

I'm fairly confident he's not the first Airline pilot to go through a divorce!

[The Wawa Zone]

ana and Galaxy Flyer, if the distance rings can be regarded as position lines at known times, then using the max ground speed (and min GS of zero) out of the first ping ring corresponding to one of the early radar fixes, you can create a running fix on a later ring.
Actually you will produce two running fixes; one in each direction outward or along the initial ring. This will produce a probable area enclosing a 'tree-branch' set of possible tracks as you move towards later rings in this way.
This will enable someone with earlier 'ping' data to resolve the distance limit on the two final arcs (actually one arc with the adjoining satellite's coverage area already eliminated).

The Malaysians may be waiting for the USG / FAA to do this for them so that they can blame them if it goes wrong.

[jugofpropwash]

A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving and taking his 3 beloved children with her. This man, a normally decent individual, is boiling with rage, frustration, humiliation and loss. His life as he sees it is over - pointless. His anger immense.

The next day, his first alone, he is on the flight. People are behaving normally. It enrages him more. He is not thinking rationally, the rage is all-consuming. He decides.

His plan is simple enough. At the appropriate point, go invisible, fly back over Malaysia and then take the plane to 45,000 feet. He doesn't want to die by smashing the plane into the water. Lack of oxygen is an easier death.

And he doesn't want it to look like suicide. He programs a flight path into the autopilot, and hopes that the plane will return from 45,000ft and follow that path until it flames out in the middle of the ocean, never to be found.

He will be missed - oh yes - his family will cry for him. They never should have left.

I don't buy it. This wasn't planned over night. If the Captain is the guilty party, and the stories of him and the wife splitting are true, then I'd say it's the other way around. Either she sensed there was something going on with him and got out of there, or he intentionally ran her off, knowing the media would descend on her.

[techgeek]

@Shadoku

Looks like a 777 to me ... but taken next day? 09MAR 04:12 - anyone know what TZ the timestamps are on tomnod?

[Mahatma Kote]

A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving..................His life as he sees it is over - pointless Actually they had been separated for some time but shared the house along with some children. It's not like this was a bombshell.

There is also nothing to say that the wife and adult children hadn't simply gone to visit relatives.

They have at least one grandchild so presumably not all the children were staying at home anyway.

[dmwalker]

But you can buy add-ons that simulate the real thing.

To see how real they can be, take a look at some of the PMDG Boeing 777 tutorials on Youtube, for example.

[Heli-phile]

In fact it seems almost obligatory in some fleets!!

[Airbubba]

A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving and taking his 3 beloved children with her. This man, a normally decent individual, is boiling with rage, frustration, humiliation and loss. His life as he sees it is over - pointless. His anger immense.

Don't know if it applies in this case but, having gone through a divorce with children, many of us can certainly relate. And, as a pilot, anyone that goes to a shrink for help needs to have his head examined because then you lose your medical and you are really angry. :rolleyes:

It is an avenue that certainly should be investigated in the human factors aspect of the investigation.

I would imagine that the visiting FBI agents will tread very gingerly on the scrutiny of a community activist with Muslim origins as portrayed in media accounts due to political considerations at home and in Malaysia.

[xcitation]

@Onetrack
The Captains closest friend has expressed his opinion that the Captain was a fine, honorable individual, and he would fly anywhere with him. He said nothing about him being a hothead - which he would need to be to fit your scenario.
In the interview that friend said he knew Capt for 2 years and had not seen the sim in the basement - but implied he was aware of it. For someone at 57 a friendship of 2 years sounds rather brief - a relatively new acquaintance.

[Mahatma Kote]

community activist with Muslim origins

How do you know he's a Muslim? He looks pretty Indian to me - a sizeable minority in Malaysia.

He could easily be Hindu, Muslim, Christian, or unaffiliated.

[VinnieC]

Been trying to stay away from the internet and pprune on Sunday, but my mind keep wandering back to the missing plane. Guess people in the industry (me ground ops, dx and PPL) just can't keep the mind away from something so strange and so mysterious happened in the industry.

Anyways, I want to say that it just doesn't make sense the captain did it - it doesn't fit his personalty. From his past, we can see that he's a very proactive chap and isn't afraid to show the world what he's fond of and proud of. It does not fit his personalty that he would choose such an obscure scenario to just disappear. He would want to make a statement...letting the world hear what he has to say. And if he's a fanatic supporter of the previous PM, it is well within his reach to use the aircraft in a way that would cause more serious and more potential crippling damage to the current PM.

Until solid, hard evidence is found against the pilots, I would give them benefit of the doubt.

[Mahatma Kote]

O.K. Serious question for 777 Avionics Techs.

Is it possible to alter the ICAO unique airframe code in the transponder using pilot available menus; or engineering menus using pilot accessible equipment?

[HappyJack260]

Quote:
Are the a/c flying visible on the pictures? On the pic from the link above, on the "submap" 637975 (it is the fifth rectangle from the right edge, and the twentyfourth from the bottom), there is an "intact" a/c, even visible as a very small white point on the thumbnail map). And I don't see its shadow, but there is a black "band" on the pic, just west of the a/c.
That looks to me like a B-737 or the P-8A maritime patrol aircraft variant.

It measures about 125' length by 125' span - that's nearer to an Airbus A320 than a 777.

[Bravo Romeo Alpha]

I lived and worked in Malaysia on ATC and airport projects for 10 years, and the Captain appears to be a Malay Muslim to me. Some posts have referred to him as Captain Shah - not so as that is his father's name. He is Captain Zaharie. This mistake may have come from the Daily Mail, which also referred to the Prime Minister, Najib Razak as Mr Razak - wrong again he is Prime Minister Najib. Do these people actually graduate in Journalism? Whilst on matters of respect, the Malaysians and their neighbours (plus participants from China, US, Australia and NZ) are quite capable of organising and conducting Search and Rescue missions. They started in the right place (last known position) and expanded the search area as more CONFIRMED data became available. The last position at the start of the search was in the Singapore FIR and also SRR - so it was up to Singapore to start the search action. However this can be delegated to another SRR (in this case KL) if coordination and communications are better facilitated. The mistake the Malaysians made was in not using a professional media person to run their press conferences. The 24 hour news cycle demands fast updates and if the media don't get it they go nuts and they and their experts start going off in all directions. The great shame is that the relatives of those missing have to put up with this.

[Exoixx]

Stumbled across this forum while looking for info and it seems to be one of few places on the internet right now that is attempting a serious discussion about all this so I hope no one minds my intrusion..:)

As regards the pilot's wife leaving him, no truly reputable sources seem to be reporting that. I've seen a few say it's been confirmed as untrue by Malaysia but have no source for that so can't be sure. However, I think we all know that if a detail like that were true it would be all over the news networks as they are desperate for new information to allow further speculation so I think it's safe to assume that is not true.

Same goes for the ridiculous article in the Mail on Sunday about the pilot being a political 'fanatic'. Here in the UK, the Mail is well known for fabricating and twisting stories to ridiculous extremes. It has a nasty habit of assuming anyone with a foreign name is a terrorist, is trying to steal our jobs or is the cause of cancer. I would seriously encourage everyone to avoid both the Mail and the Mirror like the plague.

Now, i'm not a Pilot or an aviation enthusiast so I'm going to stay well away from the technical discussion (no need to add further speculation from someone who has no idea what they're talking about - enough of that on CNN). But i'm going to throw my two cents in here on a couple of other points:

The suicide theory makes very little sense to me. While i'm aware similar has happened before, it seems to me that whoever was flying the plane was going to incredible lengths to remain undetected (lengths that would require skill, knowledge and I would imagine planning). Makes zero sense to do any of that, especially to that extent, if you are intent on killing yourself. Similarly, most suicidal folks don't want to kill another 200+ innocent people along with them. Sure, the pilot could have had a sudden breakdown but thousands of people have breakdowns every year and they don't all go on a murder spree. Yes, there are exceptions but they are incredibly rare.

As for terrorism, I can't see any logical reason to go to the expense of making a plane disappear just for that sake alone. The fact no one has officially claimed responsibility is key here, I think. The way I see it the only explanations for this would be
1) No terrorists involved
2) Plane has been hijacked and hidden to be used in another attack of some sort in the future - which seems ludicrous to me. There must be cheaper, easier and less time consuming ways to get hold of a plane - particularly when it comes to the large terrorist networks. 9/11 was about making a point. The hijacking of those planes was not purely to crash them into WTC but to make a point using an American airline with mostly American passengers. The terror is not just to make people fear this could happen but more importantly that it is them specifically that is being targeted. And even more importantly, it's about making maximum impact (really didn't wan to make that pun but cannot think of another word) by being as unexpected as possible. In the case of MH370, it would achieve little. Even if being prepared for some future attack, the world is now on alert, aware that something could happen. Makes far more sense to implement an attack when the target is unsuspecting and will not get a chance to stop you (which, let's face it, probably could have been accomplished in this instance).
3) This was a dry run for some potential attack in the future - This seems more likely, I think. Can't see a terrorist network having any issues whatsoever with 200+ lives for a practise run.
4) The plan went wrong. This is the theory i'm leaning toward at the moment. Now this could mean either there was intent to actually attack and something went wrong OR it was a dry run that went wrong. Both scenarios would explain a lack of anyone coming forward to claim responsibility, especially if it was a dry run. When you think about it, with all this coverage any terrorist network is getting a lot of information about what works and what doesn't, what the authorities pick up and what they don't.

I guess the theory of it being an accident could still be feasible? I may not be an aviation geek but I am a Titanic geek and if that has taught me anything it's that a random sequence of extremely coincidental events can come together to make a situation previously thought unthinkable, thinkable. It's rare. But it happens.

Those are my thoughts anyway. Sorry for the ramble.

[A A Gruntpuddock]

I think the problem is that 'facts' are announced then either withdrawn or qualified.

And what is published seems to be contradictory.

For instance, radar apparently shows the plane to have turned back then flown off to the NW.

But the satellite data indicates that it ended up in a different direction.

Intermediate satellite 'pings' are supposedly available, but locations of these are not posted so we can't see if these correlate with the radar plots (or indeed with anything else).

Not surprising that people are reluctant to accept the official version of events. :(

[SOPS]

The ABC in Australia has dug up some 'expert' saying ( again) that the use of good night on the radio is very strange as it is not normal procedure. I wish they would give it a rest, there is nothing abnormal about it at all, especially when you are talking to your home ATC.

[220mph]

The transponders are an easy disable - switch them to standby. Done. However, to prevent the ACARS system from transmitting data requires a bit more work. On the 777, ACARS is an integrated part of the AIMS and as such, has no off switch.One can disable the reporting module of the AIMS by either pulling specific CB's located in the cockpit, de-racking the primary units (2) located in the EE bay AIMS cabinet, or by accessing the ACARS page on an FMS CDU and switching the data link to an unused frequency.

How would someone initiate a "log off & shutdown" on the ACARS? Or does switching freq do that?

[Bravo Romeo Alpha]

No I am not surprised - I had morning tea every day in KL at an Indian Muslim restaurant. But usually different names from Malay Muslims. Anyway it does not matter much so long as we get the names right.

[aviator1970]

As per my experience even changing the data frequency to an unused frequency wont help as in most cases the system uses SATCOM to communicate automatically in case no VHF handshake takes place.... reracking etc is impossible in air too!!!

[clayne]

No I am not surprised - I had morning tea every day in KL at an Indian Muslim restaurant. But usually different names from Malay Muslims. Anyway it does not matter much so long as we get the names right.

I believe you mean Mamak.

Anyway, there are too many people trying to tie Islam into this event whereas it's completely irrelevant and shows serious ignorance. I don't mean your post - I mean the others directly alluding to or hinting that because the pilot is a "Muslim" things will be investigated differently than if he were not. This is in addition to the already existing unfounded suspicion being thrown at the captain.

[mseyfang]

The ABC in Australia has dug up some 'expert' saying ( again) that the use of good night on the radio is very strange as it is not normal procedure. I wish they would give it a rest, there is not jining abnormal about it at all, especially when you are talking to your home ATC.

One wonders where these "experts" are found. Completely normal in practice along with others such as "so long" or "good day". In fact, it is so normal and casual that it sounds like a completely routine flight up to that point which is what led me initially to think that something catastrophic happened very suddenly immediately thereafter.

[NOLAND3]

The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy.

I do NOT understand why someone with as much experience as this guy flying the real thing would build such a box, let alone use it! He could have used the Sim's at work, clearly he was senior enough to probably even bring friends in if he particularly wanted to.

I understand fighter combat sims and the like - they are good fun, but it is always acknowledged they are toys. In fact the 'good' sims to my mind are the ones that don't pretend to be anything else.

I accept there might be weirdo anorak wearing pilots out there who might want to make a cardboard (although cardboard is accurate, and most pilots have used them in basic training), milk carton, string and elastic band box painted to look like the one you are forced to spend 1000 hours a year in, but in 30 years I have NEVER met one personally. He clearly spent money on it, and for what it is its no doubt good, but if you have kids and don't fly I would liken it to something 'Mr Maker' on TV would create in comparison to a real FFS, let alone the aircraft.

That sim would give you basic terrain awareness - though no more than Google Earth and I would assume Flight Management Computer functions. NOTHING else would even remotely be like 'the real thing' nor even the 'real' MAS sim the guy could access whenever he wanted to. Any 'practice' he would get from that construction would be considered (IMHO) 'Negative Training'. In other words, using it would lessen your physical flying skills on the 'real thing'.

I strongly suggest you take a look at what is available online for anyone to purchase in 2014.

The PMDG simulators put most CBT's and FMC trainers to shame. Not to mention the platforms themselves have the capability to map the entire earths terrain using SRTM mesh (space shuttle data)

Plenty of commercial pilots use these products to brush up before a sim check.

[ChrisJ800]

Anyone know when the next press conference in Malaysia will be?

[techgeek]

@Sicer

Reportedly VHF radio disabled by pulling CB. SATCOM uses sep radio and freq for its comm. SATCOM was not disabled.

Result: No VHF comm even if over land. SATCOM only.

[mm43]

For those needing to know the basics of how the ACARS interacts when presented with a VHF or a SATCOM option, the detailed analysis presented in the TSB Canada report into the Swiss Air Flight 111 (http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-reports/aviation/1998/a98h0003/a98h0003.asp) accident on 2 September 1998, will alert you to method in which ACARS can be routed. Nothing of any importance has changed in this methodology since that date.

[ChrisJ800]

One wonders where these "experts" are found. Completely normal in practice along with others such as "so long" or "good day". In fact, it is so normal and casual that it sounds like a completely routine flight up to that point which is what led me initially to think that something catastrophic happened very suddenly immediately thereafter.

Its being analysed based on the alleged timeframe that the words were spoken after the ACARS was logged out. So if a pilot, which one and any sign of duress, or if not a pilot, then who was speaking to ATC.

[xgjunkie]

Sheep Guts
CNNs report may refer to the fact it was stationary wreckage the ping was coming from.Thats why it was the same angle.

Anyway let's wait see what eventuates. It's pure lunacy to start searching the Indian Ocean after not even properly covering the sea floor in South China, majority of the search has been by air. They need sea craft in the area.

Gosh I've had enough of this thread bye bye and good luck to all concerned.
My hearts condolences and sympathy to all the families affected.

I wouldnt leave. Its sad that D.S enjoys his/her ad hominem and strawman attacks because he/she cant handle a contrarian viewpoint. Its often a contrarian view that helps solve problems rather than groupthink or herd mentality that D.S and others appear to suffer from.

[jugofpropwash]

For those needing to know the basics of how the ACARS interacts when presented with a VHF or a SATCOM option, the detailed analysis presented in the TSB Canada report into the Swiss Air Flight 111 accident on 2 September 1998, will alert you to method in which ACARS can be routed. Nothing of any importance has changed in this methodology since that date.

A question for the 777 pilots out there. Before all this started, how much did you actually know about the workings of the ACARS? Did you know that it would continue to send pings via the SATCOM, even if it was shut off?

[Airbubba]

Breaking news from the government backed New Straits Times in K.L.:


17 March 2014| last updated at 01:58PM

'Plane flew low to avoid radar'

By FARRAH NAZ KARIM AND TASNIM LOKMAN

TERRAIN MASKING: It dropped to 5,000 feet after turning back from Kuala Lumpur-Beijing route on March 8

SEPANG: MAS Airlines flight MH370 dropped to an altitude of 5,000 feet, or possibly lower, to defeat commercial (secondary) radar coverage after it turned back from its Kuala Lumpur-Beijing route on March 8.

Investigators are poring over the Boeing 777-200ER's flight profile to determine if it had flown low and used "terrain masking" during most of the eight hours it was missing from the radar coverage of possibly at least three countries.

Top officials, who make up the technical team that had been holed up from morning till late at night here, are looking at the possibility that the jetliner, carrying 239 people, had taken advantage of the busy airways over the Bay of Bengal. By sticking to commercial routes, the flight may not have raised the suspicion of those manning primary (military) radars of the nations it overflew. To them, MH370 would appear to be just another commercial aircraft on its way to its destination.

"The person who had control over the aircraft has a solid knowledge of avionics and navigation, and left a clean track. It passed low over Kelantan, that was true," said officials.

"It's possible that the aircraft had hugged the terrain in some areas, that are mountainous to avoid radar detection."

This technique is called terrain masking and is used by military pilots to fly to their targets stealthily, using the topography to mask their approach from prying microwaves. This type of flying is considered very dangerous, especially in low-light conditions and spatial disorientation, and airsickness could easily set in. The stresses and loads it puts on the airframe, especially an airliner of the 777's size, are tremendous.

"While the ongoing search is divided into two massive areas, the data that the investigating team is collating is leading us more towards the north," sources said...

'Plane flew low to avoid radar' - General - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/plane-flew-low-to-avoid-radar-1.516965)

Acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein has just said that the flight simulator in the captain's house has (finally) been taken to police headquarters and reassembled for forensic analysis.

[Airbubba]

Here's the latest media release from the Ministry of Transport:

MH370 PRESS STATEMENT BY MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT, MALAYSIA

MONDAY, 17 MARCH 2014, 2.15PM

1. Search and rescue operational update...

a. The number of countries involved in the search and rescue operation has increased from 14 to 26. These countries are: Malaysia, Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, China, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Turkmenistan, UAE, UK, US, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.


b. Today, the Royal Malaysian Navy and the Royal Malaysian Air Force will deploy their assets to the southern corridor.

c. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent diplomatic notes to all countries along the northern and southern corridors; and all countries from which we are requesting assistance.

d. The above mentioned diplomatic notes set out the specific support and assistance required, including:
- Radar and satellite information
- Land, sea and aerial search operations
- Search and rescue action plans for relevant countries
- Details of any information required from Malaysia

e. Today, three French officials from the Bureau d'Enquêtes et d'Analyses pour la sécurité de l'aviation civile (BEA) arrived in Kuala Lumpur to help with the search and rescue operation. The officials will share their expertise and knowledge based on their experience from the search for Air France Flight 447.

2. Update on the police investigation into MH370’s crew and passengers
a. On Saturday 8 March, the Royal Malaysia Police started investigations into all crew members on board MH370, including the pilot and co-pilot, as well as all ground staff handling the aircraft.

b. On Sunday 9 March, police officers visited the homes of the pilot and co-pilot. Officers also spoke to family members of the pilot and co-pilot.


c. Police visited the homes of the pilot and co-pilot again on Saturday 15 March. The pilot’s flight simulator was taken from his house with the assistance of his family. The simulator was re-assembled at police headquarters.

The NST report of low level flight over mountainous terrain in a 777 is surprising to me but predicted by some in earlier posts here. This is not the work of an amateur I would say.

[clayne]

Breaking news from the government backed New Straits Times in K.L.:

'Plane flew low to avoid radar' - General - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/plane-flew-low-to-avoid-radar-1.516965)

Acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein has just said that the flight simulator in the captain's house has (finally) been taken to police headquarters and reassembled for forensic analysis.

Might want to include a few other quotes that are more balanced:

"This followed MAS' confirmation of records that showed that the pilot had not made any amendments to the plane's fuel requirements. It was enough to take it to Beijing, with a 45-minute reserve in case of diversion to an alternate field."
[…]
"Meanwhile, another highly-placed source told the NST that initial forensics checks on Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's flight simulator showed that it was "clean"."
[…]
"A source with Malaysia Airlines, meanwhile, confirmed that both pilots were on that plane as rostered.
They had not swapped flight schedules with anyone. MAS pilots get their rosters at the end of every month."

[mmurray]

Galaxy Flyer

This seems quite informative

The Aviationist » What SATCOM, ACARS and Pings tell us about the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 (http://theaviationist.com/2014/03/16/satcom-acars-explained/)

(Assuming it is correct !)

[bdcer]

Why fly at FL295 (if that is accurate)? It gets it just above the highest terrain (Everest 29k) if it was heading that way, but it isn't a particularly "stealthy" altitude?

[rigbyrigz]

The relationship between Captain and F.O. has been subject of some scrutiny, as if they co-conspired maybe.

On the contrary, with F.O. son of a current government leader and Captain being an ardent fan of the opposition, they might even have occasion to argue the matter. Like Ibrahim's reversal of acquital on trumped up charges, (some say) which happened that same day.

Arguments can of course get out of hand on occasion. Taken to a logical conclusion (or perhaps illogical?) seems this might be more of a trigger to some impulsive craziness than a divorce even.

Crazy things can happen, and we know crazy things DID happen. Just sayin. Its keeping me up thinking about it, and the awful consequences of whatever is the actual cause of this tragedy.

[220mph]

mm43 - thanks ... found this link to TSB report on Swissair 111 TSB on ACARS (http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-reports/aviation/1998/a98h0003/02sti/06aircraft/acars.asp) ... a good educational link

[Airbubba]

Might want to include a few other quotes that are more balanced:

...Meanwhile, another highly-placed source told the NST that initial forensics checks on Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's flight simulator showed that it was "clean".

And the next sentence is:

However, experts are probing deeper into the footprint of the homemade simulator, which he had at his home in Shah Alam.

[ExSp33db1rd]

Mmmmmm............ Not necessarily true. He could even feel relieved!!!

I'm fairly confident he's not the first Airline pilot to go through a divorce!

When I was going through my divorce I was offered time off, maybe it was felt that I wouldn't have my mind on the job and perhaps be a danger as a result ?

I requested that I be allowed to continue as normal, my life at the time was collapsing around me, and the flying was the one stable thing that I knew I had control of, could achieve, and was the only 'normal' thing still available to me at the time. Had my flying been taken away from me as well, I may well have tipped over the edge, it was truly a life-saver.

( mind you, had I come across the one-time colleague who was the cause of my distress, in some back alley in Calcutta one dark night - it could have been another story !! - history now.)

[robdean]

My field is psychology. Whilst it would be absurd to assert that the pilot's possible family issues must have a bearing here, it is equally absurd to suggest that the possibility has been 'eliminated' by talking to his maid or his friends. Indeed, the person who would open up to their friends and let the mask drop in front of the maid is the kind of person more likely to 'cope' successfully. On the other hand, someone determined to keep up a front, ashamed to seek help, or in deep personal denial of the situation until the moment their family actually move out is more likely to be prone to 'snap'. Just to reinforce: I'm not saying that the pilot acted in such a manner, just that the reasoning for elimination of this possibility presented in some previous posts is unconvincing.

As regards an entirely different hypothesis, terrorism, multiple posts have expressed incredulity that responsibility would not have been claimed by now. Several answering posts have rationalised why the hypothetical terrorists might have chosen to remain silent. My personal hunch is that probably dozens of conflicting claims of responsibility have been made, that these are being looked into according to their apparent credibility, and that if any one of these claims starts shaping up evidentially as possibly genuine, we will likely then hear of it. Incidentally, this may offer one amongst many reasons not to put all known facts in the public domain: a good challenge to a claim of responsibility is to say 'OK, if you did it, tell us something about the events which we know or can verify but which is not yet public knowledge'.

[EngineeringPilot]

Correct me if I am wrong, but the jet supposedly has flown for 8 hours, with a certain amount of time at low altitude yet only had enough fuel to get to Beijing (slightly under 6 hours) and say 45 -60 minutes reserve?



I think aircrafts like the 777 get more than only 45-60 mins reserve fuel for a 6 hour flight.. Logically they would obtain at least haft the trip back if not the whole trip back as reserve (thus 3hrs fuel reserve if not more).



This seems quite informative

The Aviationist » What SATCOM, ACARS and Pings tell us about the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 (http://theaviationist.com/2014/03/16/satcom-acars-explained/)



Very interesting read about how ACARS, SATCOM and PING works for a 777 in simple terms, and also explains how investigators figured out the possible flight paths of the missing aircraft.

[arearadar]

Good morning,

Just curious about the use of Goodnight being considered abnormal.

I was a controller at London Airways for 33 years and I can`t remember a time when I didn`t say Good-day, Goodnight or whatever on transferring an aircraft.

Not standard ICAO phraseology, I agree, but was almost universal.

Dave

[Airbubba]

I think aircrafts like the 777 get more than only 45-60 mins reserve fuel for a 6 hour flight.. Logically they would obtain at least haft the trip back if not the whole trip back as reserve (thus 3hrs fuel reserve if not more).

Learn something new every day here on PPRuNe...

[xgjunkie]

I would like to make a valid point and I would appreciate all those who believe whole heartedly and without any doubt the pings are the be all and end all to this search that they not hyperventilate.

Its interesting to me that the arc from the satellite has been deleted in the area where the aircraft lost contact. I have gathered the reason for this is two fold:

1. Theaircraft was detected on primary radar in that region
2. The next satellite over did not receive a ping so the assumption is made that the aircraft could not have been in range of that satellite.

The point I would like to make and not withstanding the ping id message because it is my belief nobody has seen an example of that message to see what information is contained within a typical ping message. Inmarsat have said that there is no message other than a handshake although their equipment measures the time it took for the ping to be returned to determine the approx distance from the transmitter give or take 300 to 500 miles.

Now take a deep breath D.S, If.... The unit sending that ping message was on the ground in Kuala Lumpur it is then conceivable that :

1. The second satellite would most probably be on the horizon since it was apparently at the edge of its range in that area and at sea level may not have line of sight with the unit sending the ping.

2. It was my understanding that civvie radar had not tracked the target primary paint over the malay peninsula. I understand military radar had but there was a collective agreement that it was most probably mh370. What does that mean? Because they couldnt explain what the paint was then they have used confirmation bias and decided it must be mh370? So if the aircraft returning that ping was on the ground there would not be a primary paint.

3. Should that arc have been removed?

The point I'm making is it is entirely possible that this ping is from other Malaysian airlines aircraft at Kuala Lumpur where the arc from the satellite cuts through nearby?

What I would like to know is what exactly was in the ping handshake from both the initiating transmitter (inmarset) and mh370's supposed handshake response.

Before you all fall about with apoplexy or ignore this post all together.
Lets look at the statement from the Malaysian PM, only a few hours before the statement, the lead investigator and the minister of transport denied the satellite ping info as being relevant and just one of many leads. If they were in posession of irrefutable evidence which nobody here has seen and still has not seen then they would have undoubtedly have supported it 100%. Instead we have the PM front up who mentions the FAA, ATSB, AAIB and the deputy minister of transport, why? To put those agencies on the hook if the satellite info is wrong and to take pressure off Malaysia and it worked an absolute treat. The lead investigator and the minister were not mentioned during the statement. Why? Because they obviously had differing views but the PM has rendered this investigation completely political by stepping in.

There is a lot more to this and I am very uncomfortable being told what to think by the uninformed media.

Now, nobody has seen these messages or pings, nobody except those involved in the investigation, is it possible these pings may well be from elsewhere. Until the handshake format in its entirety is made public then my theory cannot be discounted.

For the record I believe this aircraft will be found near its last confirmed position as I stated thousands of posts ago and stopping the search in the South China Sea is a mistake.

[onetrack]

@robdean - Good post. Thanks for the additional professional insight. I have personally known several people who suicided, and in every case they exhibited regular bouts of depression and discussed how they "felt like ending it all" on numerous occasions to friends or associates.
It's true, there's the occasional personality who is totally secretive and doesn't divulge anything and suicides with no warning - but in the overwhelming majority of suicides, the warnings are there.

[p.j.m]

Professional pilots should bear in mind that the MH370 S&R fiasco will likely result in the public's demanding changes. It might be wise for professional pilots to propose their own solution, rather than wait for governments and regulators to impose new rules. Perhaps the pilots' unions should propose that:
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.

lots of unanswered questions.

Who's going to pay for the monitoring, and storage (and retrieval) of all this data, and who's going to monitor it in case 1 aircraft stops transmitting (for whatever reason), and even if they did detect an anomoly, who are they going to notify?

Even if they had access to 24*7 military numbers for every country, would they scramble jets on the say so of a civilian company who says one of the aircraft it monitors didn't "check in" ?

[amos2]

I think, with all due respect, Speedbird 33, that you should be over your problems by now!

[1a sound asleep]

Just maybe the cloak of secrecy is a hint that authorities are still negotiating with hijackers .

[CarrieE]

Exoixx (http://www.pprune.org/members/428631-exoixx) and others. The only thing that's definitely been hijacked is this forum - PPRuNe. The clue's in the title - Professional Pilots Rumour Network - and no longer safe from the keyboard warriors, know-nothings, weirdos and others reiterating what's already been said or with nothing better to do. Shame.

[paull]

...explains how investigators figured out the possible flight paths of the missing aircraft.

The 40degree arcs are greatly misunderstood, much of the press seem to think the plane was flying ALONG one of these arcs. As I understand it, these arcs show all the possible positions of the last contact, NOT the route.

Having said that, if you have all the previous transmissions (pings), and the last radar position, then assuming[Big IF] a constant speed and direction, you could come down to a choice of two actual routes AND two choices for the last actual position.

Anyone got the full list timestamps and latitude?

(All providing of course they are not constantly 40degrees, in which case, it is flying round the arc, and we have no final fix)

[SOPS]

Engineer Pilot..I fly the 777 and I can assure you that we do not carry 3 hours reserve under any normal operations. 45 to 60 minutes reserve, as reported, sounds about reasonable to me.

[Seat 32F]

@xgjunkie
"The point I'm making is it is entirely possible that this ping is from other Malaysian airlines aircraft at Kuala Lumpur where the arc from the satellite cuts through nearby?"

Surely any pings detected from other a/c would have been followed by handshake and data exchange? So can be eliminated as being from MH370?

[onetrack]

For those who do not believe the ping accuracy or the accurate interpretation of the pings - the new evidence from investigators that the B777 flew as low as 5000' in a radar-avoiding move, is now verified by the eyewitness evidence of the 4 men in Kelantan - who all gave solemn evidence that they sighted "a large aircraft flying low", early on the morning of the 8th March.

[xgjunkie]

Seat 32FSurely any pings detected from other a/c would have been followed by handshake and data exchange? So can be eliminated as being from MH370?.

My understanding is that if engine parameters dont change then no data other than a handshake occurs. That handshake essentially has no data.

[SOPS]

Well put together onetrack, there are a few things starting to come together.

[slats11]

Thanks Ana. Even I can understand your clear illustrations and follow your clear explanation. You remind me of someone from AF447 days - she had similar expertise and we all benefitted from her insights.

How "narrow" would these lines of arc be? I understand could be very narrow as for GPS. But would communication satellites have that degree of accuracy with respect to timing?

If latest reports of low level flight are true, I guess this shortens the length if arcs somewhat. Has these been verified, or just rumor?


This was not an impulsive decision. Someone knew a lot about flying a T7, but a whole lot more as well. No way this was the response of someone who had a bad day.

If very low level flight is true, this further suggests pax out of equation by then. Anyone here think he/she wouldn't call when crossing land at low level?


Depressurisation and hypoxia still likely method. Eliminating all interference was crucial. How else could this be done. People don't come back after a sufficient period of hypoxia - anaesthetic data is clear on this point. Not at FL400 or close to. These people were not acclimatised like Everest climbers - even they wouldn't survive 40,000 (and plenty of them don't survive 30,000). 1 pilot on the deck have more oxygen than anyone else.

Few other questions
1. Engineer. Do we know if on duty or off duty? Could he have selected flight as pax, or was he assigned on duty.
2. Chinese satellite photos still puzzle me. Very embarrassing for them. They have the resources for higher res photos. Seems strange they did not given the delay of several days. Very strange they got caught out like that.

[Seat 32F]

@xgjunkie: as I understand it, MH370 signal was just ping, not ping/handshake

[xgjunkie]

OnetrackFor those who do not believe the ping accuracy or the accurate interpretation of the pings - the new evidence from investigators that the B777 flew as low as 5000' in a radar-avoiding move, is now verified by the eyewitness evidence of the 4 men in Kelantan - who all gave solemn evidence that they sighted "a large aircraft flying low", early on the morning of the 8th March.

Well the kiwi on the oil rig made a statement too about a fireball.

But Sultan Ismail Petra airport is in Kelantin, any chance of a passenger jet on approach?

[costalpilot]

why would the United States intelligence community (whoever that may be in this matter) make a point of calling up CNN and informing them all of a sudden that they were focusing on the flight crew?




why would they want CNN to tell the world that?


maybe because its true, but, since when is mass communication of whats going on the concern of the intelligence community?


I don't get it.


were they prodding the Malaysians? maybe, maybe not. but I really doubt they did it to tell us what they are thinking. since when does an intelligence agency want the world to know what its thinking?

[onetrack]

Here are two of the eyewitness reports of the low-flying aircraft, as I understand -

A fisherman Azid Ibrahim who was in his boat at sea, says that at about 1.30am he saw the lights of a low-flying aircraft in the area of (Jalan) Kuala Besar.
He told The Star newspaper in Malaysia that the plane was flying so low, that the lights were “as big as coconuts”.

Another man, is reported to have seen “bright white lights” from his home about 30km south of Kota Bharu, describing what he thought was a fast-descending aircraft, at about 1.45am on Saturday morning.But Sultan Ismail Petra airport is in Kelantin, any chance of a passenger jet on approach?
@xgjunkie - Yes, it's extremely likely, seeing as they appear to be reporting an aircraft with landing lights on.
However, I'm sure some quick checking on actual aircraft movements into SIP very early on the 8th would soon eliminate any doubts, or confirm what they saw.

I'm fully of the opinion now, that the fireball sighted by the oil rig worker, and the "extremely loud noise" heard by the 8 men near Marang beach, was by pure coincidence, a meteorite explosion.
I have never actually heard a meteorite explode, but it's certainly not a rare event.

[220mph]

@p.j.m.

Who's going to pay for the monitoring, and storage (and retrieval) of all this data, and who's going to monitor it in case 1 aircraft stops transmitting (for whatever reason), and even if they did detect an anomoly, who are they going to notify?

The Spidertracks product linked above looks like it costs $1000 - $2000 per aircraft for hardware. And appx $1.60 per hour operating cost. It is a small standalone product that would provide a tamper proof method of continuous flight tracking.

Seems like a smart and minimal cost idea - especially now that we know you can apparently easily disappear a 777 ...

I suspect something similar will be required on all commercial aircraft in a very short time - even if as a backup system.

Smart airlines should be stepping all over each other to see who can announce and install these quickest - as a safety and PAX security tool.

[lakedude]

xgjunkie
"The point I'm making is it is entirely possible that this ping is from other Malaysian airlines aircraft at Kuala Lumpur where the arc from the satellite cuts through nearby?"

While I lack specific knowledge of the system in question it is very likely that the system functions in a similar way as any modern network.

For example devices that are hooked up to the internet have a unique number assigned to them called a "MAC address". No other device on the entire network has the same address. This way information can be routed though the network to an individual end user. IP addresses are similar except they function at a different OSI layer.

Same goes for 11 digit postal codes for your street address (USA). No one else has the same address in the entire country.

I'm almost certain that the plane would have a unique identifying code of some kind.

OSI model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OSI_model)

[Seat 32F]

@lakedude: agreed, in networking the ping is 'is anyone there?' so in order for a correct response the reply has to return to the originating address, therefore the ping must contain a unique ID.