Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[joshannon]

I wrote the South China Morning Post article.

Its seems from the eye witness report that the plane was heading back to K.L, and if that's the case they are looking in the wrong place for the wreckage.

Surely if the plane was shot down, by Vietnamese or the Malaysian's - both btw have trigger happy MIG fighter pilots, they would come clean.

If the plane was hijacked and they knew it - and was heading back to K.L. someone could have made the decision to shoot it down. It then would have been, a Malaysian Air Force decision backed by the government.

Surely though the government would not have made that decision without contacting a Chinese Premier (else it would be an international incident, and could spark war).

There are over 6000 news sources for the same information. No-one knows very much, but someone knows exactly what happened to this flight.

There is of course another possibility that I hinted at.

It is possible to get below ground radar, and turn off your transponder, and fly VFR. If that was the case the plane could be anywhere now, especially if this had been planned and refuelling stops have been made.

Already if this is Al-Qaeda its the most daring hijacking since 911 but not following the same pattern.

Or is it? Even when the first plane hit the WTC the only reason we knew it was a hijacking was:
1/ we saw it
2/ people made mobile phone calls from the plane

In this case they would have been out of mobile coverage, no one would have been awake, it was dark, so no-one could see what was happening.

It made no sense to ditch the plane. It did/does make sense to fly the plane to an undisclosed location, and make an announcement to the world, release x,y,z or pay us x billion for the plane and the passengers.

As every day goes on with no concrete evidence that a plane ditched, there is a stronger possibility that it didn't ditch, or there is a conspiracy i.e. someone is not telling us the truth.

There are in this region earthquake a network of thousands of monitors under the sea catching the slightest movement. I wonder if anyone has checked that data.

[Unixman]

awblain Sorry but that is wrong. It didn't take 2 years to find the wreckage - bits were found within a few days ( including 50 bodies). What you meant to say that the data recorders took 2 years to be found - a very different thing.

[awblain]

From the current BBC story:

Commander William Marks from the US Seventh Fleet, which is taking part in the search, says he expects the plane's flight recorders to be floating in the water.

Maybe that's why no-one's found anything?
Cmdr Marks has been inadequately briefed.

[Ida down]

As each day goes on it becomes more bizarre, where the hell is it? It is not a Cessna for God sake, and on Australian TV tonight we had the head of the American Aviation Accident Bureau, saying it was either a stall, or a bomb. Stall? What a high speed stall, surely this aircraft is not capable of a high speed stall? Is this aircraft capable of getting into coffin corner?

[Eclectic]

So we have the following factors:

1) Transponder ceased working.
2) Aircraft turned.
3) Garbled radio message with another aircraft.
4) Possible fisherman sighting flying low.
5) Possible businessman sighting flying low.
6) USA P3 Orions searching Malacca Straight.

So something very traumatic was happening in the cockpit, but not enough to stop the plane flying at that time. Obviously at some stage it did stop but the potential search area is immense.

The traumatic cockpit even could be:
1) Cockpit fire or other major mechanical/electronic event.
2) Terrorism.
3) Crew suicide attempt.

[Andy_S]

awblain Sorry but that is wrong. It didn't take 2 years to find the wreckage - bits were found within a few days ( including 50 bodies). What you meant to say that the data recorders took 2 years to be found - a very different thing.

awblain is quite correct.

Some bodies and some floating debris were recovered about 5 days after AF447 went down.

The wreckage (i.e. the fuselage on the sea bed) wasn't located until almost two years after the event.

[Carjockey]

Someone mentioned in an earlier post that maybe it came down on land, in Malaysia. There are mountainous (2000m) and heavily forested areas running north to south right across the peninsula, these areas are sparsely populated in the north near Kota Baru. If it came down somewhere there it will take some finding.

[snowfalcon2]

Two items of interest, as local sunset approaches in approx 45 minutes:

- HQ Search and Rescue Aviation Administration reports Hong Kong authorities have notified a "large area of debris" reported by an HK aircraft at approx 60km SE of Vung Tao, some 500 km away from IGARI i.e. the last known position of MH370.

[This is a new area but lies fairly close to planned route of MH370. I looked briefly at the area and it seems there is a stretch of fairly rural coast east of the big Vung Tao city. This may explain why no reports until now, though the report also says there are many fishing boats in the area].

Local authorities have been summoned to take a look.

- Vietnam has moved two modern CASA 212 maritime search aircraft , 8981 and 8982, from the Hai Phong area to the Tan Son Nhat airport of Ho Chi Minh City. These aircraft should have better search capabilities than the AN-26 aircraft used so far for large area searching.

[MATELO]

1) Transponder ceased working.
2) Aircraft turned.

6) USA P3 Orions searching Malacca Straight.


Makes you wonder if the public are being kept out of the loop.

[AtomKraft]

This a/c has 'lost contact', but what exactly was its last contact?


Was it just a radio call, position report or something similar, or was it actually being seen on radar, and then seen to no longer be on radar?


If the latter, and still not found, things are indeed unusual.


If the former, it may have flown for many miles, thus searchers looking in the wrong place- may not even be in the sea.

[Ulight]

As suspected the oil found wasn't from the plane.

Missing MH370: Oil slick not from plane, says MMEA - Nation | The Star Online (http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/03/10/Missing-MH370-oil-slick-not-from-plane/)

[A Squared]

1) Transponder ceased working.
2) Aircraft turned.

6) USA P3 Orions searching Malacca Straight.

Makes you wonder if the public are being kept out of the loop.

So what precisely do you find sinister about US P-3's assisting in the search? If we have we have P-3s in the region, it seems an natural and obvious thing to have offered their assistance. You're aware that the purpose of a P-3 is locating things in the water, right? and as such, would have relevant capabilities to offer? I'm at a loss for how you possibly interpret this as indicating a conspiracy.

[Eclectic]

So what precisely do you find sinister about US P-3's assisting in the search? If we have we have P-3s in the region, it seems an natural and obvious thing to have offered their assistance. You're aware that the purpose of a P-3 is locating things in the water, right? and as such, would have relevant capabilities to offer? I'm at a loss for how you possibly interpret this as indicating a conspiracy.

Not sinister.
Get a map out.
MH370 disappeared on the right hand side of the Malay peninsular.
The USA P3 Orions are searching on the left hand side.

This implies that the searchers know the plane did not break up immediately the transponder stopped working, but that it continued flying.

[BOAC]

sinister about US P-3's assisting in the search - not 'sinister', but if you knew where the Malacca Straights are you might raise an eyebrow?

[awblain]

I would consider it to be sinister if P3s were not helping with the search.

I would hope that clandestine agencies whose role it is to take regular radar images of the ocean surface would also help if they could.

[Capn Bloggs]

A Squared, before you go off half-cocked, have a look where the Straits of Malacca are: miles away from the current search position and on the other side of Peninsula Malaysia. What in effect the authorities think is that it may have ended up there: that means it flew the whole way.

If this hasn't been specifically mentioned by the authorities then yes, one could well wonder that we're being kept out of the loop.

[wishiwasupthere]

They're RAAF AP-3C Orion's searching Malacca Straits out of Butterworth, not US.

[mindsweeper]

So what precisely do you find sinister about US P-3's assisting in the search? If we have we have P-3s in the region, it seems an natural and obvious thing to have offered their assistance. You're aware that the purpose of a P-3 is locating things in the water, right? and as such, would have relevant capabilities to offer? I'm at a loss for how you possibly interpret this as indicating a conspiracy.

It is absolutely strange if those AC's are looking for something in the Malacca Str. Unless they are on a whole other mission...

[Backseat Dane]

So what precisely do you find sinister about US P-3's assisting in the search? If we have we have P-3s in the region, it seems an natural and obvious thing to have offered their assistance. You're aware that the purpose of a P-3 is locating things in the water, right? and as such, would have relevant capabilities to offer? I'm at a loss for how you possibly interpret this as indicating a conspiracy.

If there's a hint of a conspiracy it'd be the mere fact of a search going on in The Malacca Straight. Not who's in fact searching - at least that's my take.

It's not a very logical place to look for a plane gone missing en route from Kuala Lumpur til Beijing - specially considering the last position of the plane as reported by FR24.

[awblain]

The airline press release at least stated that the now-show passengers' baggage was offloaded.

5 out of 250 doesn't seem an unreasonable number not to board, and their names are known and their passports were scanned, so they can easily be eliminated. Baggage tag scanner records should show whether they did have bags on board.

[Stanley11]

both btw have trigger happy MIG fighter pilots, they would come clean.


@Joshannon

You wrote this article in the South China Morning Post?

Sir, may I ask you what led you to remark that Vietnamese and Malaysian MIG fighter pilots are 'trigger happy'? Do you have any examples of late to suggest that they are less than professional than what you allege? I sure hope that your mindset of vietnamese soldiers/pilots are not the 1960s vietnam war era generation. What fighters do Malaysia have in their fleet? Do you know that there are Sukois and F-18s apart from their Mig 29s? So how are the Mig pilots are trigger happy compared to the rest?
This very statement discredits you and brings your credibility as a journalist to that of a sensationalist opportunist.

[jbr76]

Quote:
Starting to look this way. Could the Malay Govt be covering up the fact that they took this plane out, because it was a security threat (hijacked, full of fuel, heading for KL)?

Heading for KUL? It was heading for PEK! The conspiracy theorists who drummed up the banter regarding the flight making a turn back to KUL is totally and utterly unsubstantiated and and cannot be confirmed due to the integrity of some of the radar data that was logged. There is no credible data thus far that backs that theory up or has been confirmed.

People please, before hitting the send button on your post please ensure you have read the facts surrounding this flight properly.

This flight departed KUL and was heading for PEK.

I am sick of reading people's posts on here who are quoting incorrect information. :ugh:

[andrasz]

Can someone point to a credible primary source that in fact there is any search activity in the Malacca Straits ? Just because the aircraft are BASED in Butterworth (on the Malacca coast) does not mean they are searching there. I can imagine the apron at Kota Baharu getting rather cluttered, so a base 200km away might be more suitable for the long-range P-3s.

[Eclectic]

Heading for KUL? It was heading for PEK! The conspiracy theorists who drummed up the banter regarding the flight making a turn back to KUL is totally and utterly unsubstantiated and and cannot be confirmed due to the integrity of some of the radar data that was logged. There is no credible data thus far that backs that theory up or has been confirmed.

People please, before hitting the send button on your post please ensure you have read the facts surrounding this flight properly.

This flight departed KUL and was heading for PEK.

I am sick of reading people's posts on here who are quoting incorrect information.

You seem to be missing this piece of information: BBC News - Missing Malaysia Airlines plane 'may have turned back' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26502843)

[SaturnV]

From ABC News
The search has been expanded to the Straits of Malacca on the other side of the Malaysian peninsula in order to discount the possibility that the aircraft turned back to Malaysia airspace. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet is using a P-3C Orion marine surveillance aircraft to search in the northern section of the Strait of Malacca today, according to the group’s Facebook page.

[philbky]

The similarity to the Comet 1 accident off Elba is in some ways striking. For all our modern comms and tracking equipment, once a return/downlink has gone, it's gone and what happens to the airframe and all conveyed therein is as clear in 2014 as it was in 1954 until someone like a fisherman comes up with a report of seeing the incident, and that could be days, or genuine wreckage/bodies surface.

[Ulight]

TR?C TI?P: Xác minh thông tin nhi?u m?nh v? g?n V?ng Tàu | Xã h?i | Báo ?i?n t? Ti?n Phong (http://www.tienphong.vn/xa-hoi/truc-tiep-xac-minh-thong-tin-nhieu-manh-vo-gan-vung-tau-684926.tpo)

[A Squared]

A Squared, before you go off half-cocked, have a look where the Straits of Malacca are: miles away from the current search position and on the other side of Peninsula Malaysia.

Yes. I've flown over the Straits of Malacca, I know where they are. If one assumes that the airplane had some sort of accidental catastrophe, then true, the straits of Malacca are very improbable. Thing is, we don't know that it *was* an in flight disintegration/uncontrolled descent/etc and we don't know that it *wasn't* a commandeering/ hijacking. If you do not assume those are not possibilities, then the straits of Malacca stop being an impossibility. I've been involved in search and rescue, and you don't only search in places you think are probable, although you give them extra effort. Ideally you search everyplace that is physically possible for the plane to be locate, although that can be a really big area so you try to reduce that as much as possible. But, yeah, you do send assets to search areas with a lower probability, rather than concentrating all assets in the area you think is most probable, given your assumptions. It's pretty obvious that a hijacking scenario hasn't been absolutely ruled out, so the possible ares that it could be are a little more widespread than "directly downwind from the last point of contact".

Besides, it looks like nobody really knows whose P-3s they are or what they're doing.

edit: I see a later posts suggest that they are US P-3s searching for MH370.

[Ulight]

TPO - According to air traffic management agency in Hong Kong, one of their aircraft detected several unidentified fragments at position coast from Vung Tau is about 60km to the southeast (how to position the plane missing over Malaysia 500km).

Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tienphong.vn%2F)

[Hempy]

I presume standard ICAO SARPHASE procedures where followed?

Precisely. The uncertainty phase commenced soon after Subang was unable to make contact with the aircraft. After all communication attempts failed, the alert phase was issued at 2:40, pretty much an hour after the start of uncertainty phase, and I'm sure all relevant authorities started preparing for a SAR mission. Full scale distress phase was probably declared at/around ETA BJS.

The same timescales happened with AF447, SAR was only launched after the aircraft failed to make contact anywhere beyond its remaining endurance. An overwater SAR mission is a very costly exercise, and diverts scarce resources which potentially might be needed for another emergency. Such resources are not sent off on wild goose chases until at least the basic facts are gathered and analyzed.

lol and therein lies half the problem. Lose the blip but keep comms: no phase required. Lose comms but can still 'see' the aeroplane: Incerfa appropriate. Lose comms AND lose the blip = an immediate DISTRESFA where I come from.....

[A Squared]

With all that speculation, I'm wondering, couldn't the cause of the accident (if it was one) simply be a human glitch?

I mean, we've had pilots
- accidently shutting down the engines instead of retracting the gear
- accidently setting the parking brake inflight, causing all tyres to burst on landing
- accidently selecting a lower flap setting instead of a higher one on approach, causing the aircraft to stall
- accidently trimming the rudder to the point the autopilot disconnects, causing the aircraft to flip over

Why does it have to be terrorism, a UFO, a meteorite? It could simply have been a pilot accidently pushing the wrong button for no apparent reason ...

I don't know of any airplane 777 or not which has a button when accidentally pushed causes it to break all contact and disappear off the face of the earth. One would expect that such a button would have a big red guard over it. Maybe with a printed warning too.

[ntq1947]

... Commander William Marks from the US Seventh Fleet, which is taking part in the search, says he expects the plane's flight recorders to be floating in the water.
"In calm seas, if there were a soccer ball [football] or a basketball floating in the water, the radar could pick it up. They [flight recorders] typically have a radio beacon and so for example our P3 [radar] - if they are flying within a certain range of that - will pick up that radio beacon. We have not yet picked up anything, but that's typically what those black boxes contain." ...


The sentence in bold letters, is incorrect, as far as my knowledge is concerned.

[xxzz123]

By now any flight deck, accident investigation, terror prevention or ATC staff will now be very suspicious about the last 24 hours lack of developments. This simply does not happen in todays environment, A/C hit TOC at 35, no conclusive radar signature, no wreckage, conflicting data, relatively shallow seas, someone somewhere is holding back the tragic fate of this 777.

[Backseat Dane]

1) Catastrophic in-flight breakup due to foul play (e.g. bomb/missile): seems very unlikely such an event would exactly coincide with the change of heading.

2) Catastrophic in-flight breakup due to mid-air collision: possibly related to a change of heading but lack of any report of other aircraft being involved appears to rule this out.

3) Hijacking either by passengers or crew: the planned change of heading could have been used together with a disabling of the electronic systems to conceal a further re-routing.

4) Aircraft malfunction and/or pilot error: the change of heading could have been part of or have triggered a causal chain of events that brought down the airliner. Probably there's a few scenarios here such as, for example, the turn could have put forces on the repaired wing that caused it to fail.

It seems to me that scenarios 3 and, especially 4 are the most likely ones. Any other ideas what the coinciding change of heading and last contact might mean?

Re: 1) A bomb rigged with an accelerometer/compass trigger (essentially a smartphone would do it, programmed as some sort of inertial navigator) plotting the course of the aircraft - assuming the same flight files the same flight plan day in, day out - and then set to go off at this turn, because the perpetrator knows that at that point of the flight the AC will have reached cruising altitude and be somewhere over the sea?

A timer set to go off at XX o'clock would be a far more simple approach, agreed, if someone was plotting to bomb the AC. So just speculating.

[Stanley11]

With all that speculation, I'm wondering, couldn't the cause of the accident (if it was one) simply be a human glitch?

Of course pilots fail. For example, call on the wrong frequency, fail to turn on transponder, but that usually will be rectified.
This case is truly bizarre and baffles many experts. I'm sure by now many experts, beyond this forum, had contributed and brainstormed to figure out what could've happened and based on the probabilities and resources, chased those leads.

[Deaf]

Can someone point to a credible primary source that in fact there is any search activity in the Malacca Straits ? Just because the aircraft are BASED in Butterworth (on the Malacca coast) does not mean they are searching there. I can imagine the apron at Kota Baharu getting rather cluttered, so a base 200km away might be more suitable for the long-range P-3s.

Why they are at RMAF Butterworth is because:

"The base is home to:
RAAF 324 Expeditionary Combat Support Squadron (324 ECSS)
RAAF 92 Wing Detachment Alpha"

RMAF Base Butterworth - Royal Australian Air Force (http://www.airforce.gov.au/RAAFBases/RMAF-Base-Butterworth/?RAAF-D7L28SwhbW9d5AXjy/DemMYuiw7wQuOR)

[A Squared]

Given the likely track of the aircraft, if they are searching the Malacca Straits, why then are they not searching the land of Peninsular Malaysia?

Do you know that they are not?

[Teal]

@A Squared
Besides, it looks like nobody really knows whose P-3s they are or what they're doing.

edit: I see a later posts suggest that they are US P-3s searching for MH370

Old news (yesterday) - Australia offered two of its RAAF Orion PC3s to assist in the search - No Cookies | thetelegraph.com.au (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/australia-sending-two-p3c-orions-from-darwin-to-malaysia-to-aid-with-the-search-for-missing-malaysian-flight-mh370/story-fni0cx12-1226849627658)

These are probably already based at Butterworth (adjacent the Straits of Malacca) where the RAAF has had a presence since the 1950s.

[Stanley11]

This flight departed KUL and was heading for PEK.

I am sick of reading people's posts on here who are quoting incorrect information. :ugh:

Sir, I think you're mistaken. IF the flight was somehow commandeered, the origin or destination of the original flight becomes a moot point. They will go wherever they want (fuel permitting). Of course the original flight path would go into disguising the intent but I think you get my point.

[Ulight]

With location of potential wreckage spotted in Vietnamese paper it would put MH370 on M765 meaning if they took a right turn at IGARI onto M765 and then kept going, that would be roughly on that path.

Putting it out there, could a 777 could glide about 30 minutes from 35,000 ft as if engines went out at IGARI that would mean just over 200 nm @ ~450 kts which is around that spot?

[KeyPilot]

There are conflicting posts in this thread about the length of time to locate wreckage in AF447 - which is (at this stage) the obvious comparable incident.

Some have said it was several days, some the following day.

I have just looked at the BEA accident report, and they seem to say wreckage was found only after 5 days (6-Jun vs accident date of 1-Jun), although it is not clear as they do not make explicit reference to FIRST wreckage sighted.

Can anyone corroborate this?

[valvanuz]

The straits of Malacca is one of the worlds busiest shipping lane with hundreds of ships transiting daily, not counting local traffic, ferries and fishermen. If a large plane were to crash, there would be many witnesses and debris would be spotted within hours.

[philipat]

"Do you know that they are not?"


If they were they would have reported it. Makes them look like they are covering all the bases.

[Calldepartures]

The aircraft appears to be off course.. Speculate as to why this may be but I fear it can only be an intentional act given the lack of all communication. (Both verbal and digital)

[PAXboy]

With no apologies to the conspiracy people:

History tells us that the simplest explanation is the most likely.

[lurker999]

the Australian P3Cs took off from Darwin this morning to join the search.

[xxzz123]

We can go around in circles for another 48.hours but this aircraft can not possibly have disappeared. This is relatively busy airspace thouroughly covered by Mil and Civ radar. If the 777 simply fell out of the sky some authority either knows where it happened or if she went off course before the event. Either way we need to simplify and stop speculating. Stop discussing what may have happened and start looking at where the 777 could now be nearly 48.hours into the incident.

[andrasz]

I would likely to remind everyone that the last VERIFIED change of heading was from 015 to 040 a minute before transponder signal was lost, corresponding to the intended flight path.

The possibility of a return was hinted by the chief of the Malaysian Air Force early yesterday, but has been downplayed and unconfirmed ever since. Any scenario based on this information is pure speculation at this stage.

[Eclectic]

MH370 did not break up or crash at the point where the Flightradar24 feed ends.
Otherwise something would have been found by now.
So it kept flying with the transponder off.
But why no mobile phone contact?
1) Too far from any cells.
2) Passengers incapacitated by depressurisation.
The latter theory would fit in with the garbled radio transmission.
It would be interesting to know the cause of such a decompression event.
Bungled Hijack attempt? This might also explain the transponder stopping transmission.
Structural failure from the wing repair?
Small explosion?

So where is the 777 now?
If it had crashed over land the ELT would have activated and been seen by satellites. This is why they are not searching the landmasses.

So it is at the bottom of the sea, where the ELT transmissions can't be seen.
But the reality is that it could be anywhere in a radius of well over 1,000 miles.

[rog747]

re The similarity to the Comet 1 YP accident off Elba is in some ways striking. For all our modern comms and tracking equipment, once a return/downlink has gone, it's gone and what happens to the airframe and all conveyed therein is as clear in 2014 as it was in 1954 until someone like a fisherman comes up with a report of seeing the incident, and that could be days, or genuine wreckage/bodies surface.

agreed philbky

also sister ship comet YY also took off from Rome CIA going to JNB some months later and went missing off stromboli and hardly any thing was found

[DB64]

The possibility that they are looking in the wrong place certainly seems plausible. It is also not unheard of for it to take several days to locate wreckage, Adam Air 574 for example.

[SpoiltVictorian]

It took them 73 years to find the Titanic at the bottom of the sea!

[A Squared]

The latter theory would fit in with the garbled radio transmission..

I've seen a couple of references to a garbled radio transmission. I apparently missed that in the previous discussion. Anyone know where that was originally posted? Or have a link for information on this?

[MartinM]

... Commander William Marks from the US Seventh Fleet, which is taking part in the search, says he expects the plane's flight recorders to be floating in the water.
"In calm seas, if there were a soccer ball [football] or a basketball floating in the water, the radar could pick it up. They [flight recorders] typically have a radio beacon and so for example our P3 [radar] - if they are flying within a certain range of that - will pick up that radio beacon. We have not yet picked up anything, but that's typically what those black boxes contain." ...


The sentence in bold letters, is incorrect, as far as my knowledge is concerned.

Well, if they would be at the surface. But the CVR/FDR does not float if they are stuck in the fuese of the plane which sinks to ground.

Underwater the P-3 only would pick up the sound if they would deploy the sonnar buoy.

Thinking on the size of the area - if you actually have no bloody idea of where to deploy the buoy, it would be almost impossible to pickup the signal.

Remember, AF447, the signal was captured by a submarine on its sonnar!

[1stspotter]

I've seen a couple of references to a garbled radio transmission. I apparently missed that in the previous discussion. Anyone know where that was originally posted? Or have a link for information on this?
MISSING MH370: Pilot: I established contact with plane


MISSING MH370: Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-pilot-i-established-contact-with-plane-1.503464)

[StormyKnight]

With no apologies to the conspiracy people:

History tells us that the simplest explanation is the most likely.

But what is the simplest explanation for what we do know?

All signals immediate cut
No seen explosion (by eyewitness/satellite)
No claim by militant group
No floating debris found after 2 1/2 days
Inconclusive radar track after signal cut


Hijack, C/Breakers pulled crashed immediately
Hijack, C/Breakers pulled low altitude crashed some time later
Cockpit explosion/decompression
Avionics bay explosion/decompression
Pilot / First Officer suicide

[chris14679]

Even if one of the oil slicks did prove to have come from the aircraft, it still does not mean the aircraft crashed there.

In the event of total engine failure, surely the pilots would have dumped their fuel to reduce weight and improve gliding performance?

On another point, perhaps the various communications antenna on a 777 (or routing of the cables to them) are located in such a way that a single event could knock out all communications, radar transponder etc. together.

Assuming that the same event knocked out the engine controls and the navigation lights, the pilots would attempt to glide to the nearest suitable runway, which would probably be KBR (Sultan Ismail Petra Airport).

Assuming the eyewitness report is accurate then the navigation lights were disabled in the unknown incident but the landing lights were still operable and they were turned on. The position of the sighting is consistent with the aircraft trying to line up seaward of Bachok for a landing at KBR.

If the gliding aircraft ran out of altitude before reaching the airport it could have ditched at low speed resulting in no break up and therefore little or no release of debris. If the fuel had already been dumped there would be no oil slick either.

Damage from either the ditching or the earlier incident could have caused it to sink rapidly. Maybe even some bags containing mobile phones floated free.

Speculation but seems plausible. I'm no expert - any of the experts here think such a scenario is feasible?

[abkasti]

2 days
at 2 june 2009
"1230 GMT: Debris is sighted by Brazilian search planes looking for the missing airliner 650km (390 miles) north-east of Brazil's Fernando do Noronha island."

at 31 may 2009
2200 GMT: AF 447 takes off from Rio de Janeiro's Galeao International Airport, heading for Paris Charles de Gaulle.

[Ida down]

Deaf, I don't suppose anybody has thought to ask, the TSV refueller?

[Ulight]

Just for reference, it is now dark over the search area:

Day and Night World Map (http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html)

[Livesinafield]

the garbled radio exchange seems to have disappeared a bit, i am sure if it was more important or genuine, we would have heard a lot more about it

As someone said it took a long time to find Adam Air 574 because of the uncertainty of the last location, rest assured it will be found

Unfortunately the 777 is in the sea, it hasn't landed anywhere at some secret location for all the to be well

[1stspotter]

Debris of the Air France aircraft were found only after FIVE days.
Initially it was stated that at June 2 (the next day) debris were found. As can be found on numberous websites.

However, this proved to be wrong. This article is dated June 6:
Brazilian officials retract statements that items pulled from the Atlantic were remains of Flight 447. Likelihood of discovering the cause of the crash appears to be fading.

Debris found not from Air France flight after all, Brazil says - Los Angeles Times (http://articles.latimes.com/2009/jun/06/world/fg-air-crash6)

They will find something sooner or later.

[highflyer40]

I think you would most likely be hard pressed to find one flight anywhere in the world where someone wasn't travelling on a fraudulent/stolen passport

only the issuing countries computers would flag up the discrepancies, and the handful of other countries that have invested to resources to to access interpols data on the ground.

as to the 5 no shows... airlines try to overbook every flight by 15-20% because statistics show that about that number of pax will not board for whatever reason, stuck in traffic, slept in, denied boarding, forgot passport.

[rog747]

i am amazed they have not got subs in there yet with sonar or ships with sonar buoys listening out already or have they?

not really been reported as ?

[The Ancient Geek]

FWIW, aircraft do occasionally vanish without trace.

G-AGWH was found after 50 years.
A russian built freigter was recently discovered in the Congo jungle +/- 20 years after going missing.
A 737 is believed to have sunk into a swamp.

There are several other similar mysteries, it does happen but hopefully this one will be found soon, until wreckage is found the circumstances and causes will remain a mystery.

[Lemain]

We don't actually know that it did 'crash into the South China Sea'. Might have severed comms 'deliberately' descended at Vne until a few hundred feet, using RA and GPS proceeded to a pre-planned landing place. I'm not ready in my own mind to give up those souls as lost.

[Spencerconnor]

Do Rolls Royce monitor the performance of its Trent's in live time? If so, wouldn't this data at least give an indication of when they stopped in live time?

[philipat]

"as to the 5 no shows... airlines try to overbook every flight by 15-20% because statistics show that about that number of pax will not board for whatever reason, stuck in traffic, slept in, denied boarding, forgot passport"


I think you are missing the point. Their bags were already checked and on board but removed by MH before the aircraft departed. So it is highly relevant to ask who were they? Did they ever show to collect the bags? What was in the bags?

[paddylaz]

They had a press conference just now,

Latest is:

1) Oil traces in the ocean are from a ship, not an aircraft


2) Stolen passport users are not of 'asian appearance' as previously reported. He says they look like (I'm not joking) "Mario Balotelli"


3)Debris of some sort spotted east of Ho Chi Minh (formerly Saigon). Surveillance vehicles en route and should arrive there tomorrow (aka a few hours from now)

[Papillon]

@philipat, it's not especially unusual for passengers to fail to make it to the gate and be offloaded. It happens all the time.

[thelearner]

Port Vale - those co-ordinates are only just over 100 km from Ho Chi Minh City and 50 km offshore, in what I would imagine would be very busy shipping waters. Also would suspect radar coverage there, and this would be appx an hr further into the flight than the last reported contact? EDited to add PortVale has added a map to his post which I was unable to do.

[Ulight]

All over the place sites are reporting things like this: "Aviation sources in China report that radar data suggest a steep and sudden descent of the aircraft, during which the track of the aircraft changed from 024 degrees to 333 degrees. The aircraft was estimated to contact Ho Chi Minh Control Center (Vietnam) at 01:20L, but contact was never established." (Crash: Malaysia B772 over Gulf of Thailand on Mar 8th 2014, aircraft missing (http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0)) ..

However, I think they are just misreading the track log which STARTS with 333 degrees ... Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370/history/20140307/1635Z/WMKK/ZBAA/tracklog)

Unless time goes backwards?

[Lychee]

With so many countries, aircraft and ships involved can someone tell me who coordinates the search, decides how long to carry on looking (an earlier post made reference to the Air France wreckage took two years to find), and who pays for the costs incurred? Or does each individual governments pick up their own costs?

[MrCyberdude]

On Sunday, MMEA's search team found a "yellowish" oil slick about 10 miles (16km) long, some 20 nautical miles (37km) south of the last point of contact of MH370
Tests on a sample of the oil slick found off the Kelantan coast reveal that it was not from the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 flight.

Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) eastern region enforcement chief Datuk Nasir Adam revealed test results showed that it was bunkering activities.
"This is information I received from Kuala Lumpur. The oil slick is from bunkering activities and not from an aircraft," said Nasir at the MMEA's base in Tok Bali here on Monday.

Missing MH370: Oil slick not from plane, says MMEA - Nation | The Star Online (http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/03/10/Missing-MH370-oil-slick-not-from-plane/)

[philipat]

"@philipat, it's not especially unusual for passengers to fail to make it to the gate and be offloaded. It happens all the time."


In my experience in Asia, that is a lot for a single flight. It may be nothing but it is important to know who they are, did they later collect their bags or just disappear etc. My point was that this was not, as the other poster suggested, just a case of "Check-in" no shows because their bags were checked and on board, but of course offloaded prior to departure. I also note that KUL is a great airport for making very short connections (As is SIN) which is why I use it a lot as the connex times to Europe are very good in both directions and I have never had a problem with bags not making the transit.

[yssy.ymel]

@PortVale - found NOT to be a debris trail from MH370 - just ullage from a ship.

[SOPS]

I assure you, it's normal for people to check in and no show at the gate. They get lost in the airport, too much time in Duty Free, what ever, it happens all the time.

[gchriste]

@yssy-myelin this is a new report as of today, not linked to yesterday's reported oil slick. You can see in the above photo small debris maybe?

[MartinM]

Debris found at N9.72 E107.42Hell. Have you seen how far this is from the actual (supposed) position of the aircraft.

And see how close to the coast.

How can an airliner of that size enter into Ho-Chi Min controlled area without being seen? If the airliner was going down in this area, Ho-Chi Min would have had this on the PSR for sure. And I would assume that if the aircraft would not repsond to controller atempts to contacts, they would scramble at least two Jets two intercept. No one penetrates controlled area, not answering, no transponder. This would certainly lead to an intercept.

Surface water currents in the Gulf of Thailand
http://www.fao.org/docrep/field/003/ab751e/AB751E06.gif

The debris drift would not go in this direction ;-)

This is just rubbish of some freighter ...

[david1300]

@phillipa: "I think you are missing the point. Their bags were already checked and on board but removed by MH before the aircraft departed. So it is highly relevant to ask who were they? Did they ever show to collect the bags? What was in the bags?"

Not so, I believe. I believe they were checked in but it wasn't confirmed the bags were loaded. They could have been connecting passengers from another flight booked through and boarding passes issued, but they never made it to the gate. Various possibilities, including late arrival of their inbound connecting flight, would preclude them from boarding and also preclude their bags from being loaded.

[onetrack]

"Hong Kong's Air Traffic Control Center reported on Mar 10th 2014 around 17:30L (09:30Z) that an airliner enroute on airway L642 reported via HF radio that they saw a large field of debris at position N9.72 E107.42 about 80nm southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, about 50nm off the south-eastern coast of Vietnam in the South China Sea and about 281nm northeast of the last known radar position. Ships have been dispatched to the reported debris field."

Sea depth at the reported location appears to be around only 50M, to 100M at most.

This location is a very long way from last reported position? Doesn't seem to be right.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/5fgegl.jpg

[Sheep Guts]

Just watching the current KL news conference. After negating another oil slick discovery and also telling reporters the 2 stolen passport suspects did not appear Asian. He reiterated that all Malaysian authority checks were conducted in accordance with policy and procedure. They seem to be very quick to non implicate their own authorities.
Surely they can't have completed investigations on their own protocols for safety and security checks.
I'm sorry but these News conferences are only getting worse. There probably needs to be a Security person briefing the Passport case and the DCA gentleman maybe stick to the ongoing search. It's tough I know . But I thought the Asiana crash news conferences held in the states were a lot better handled.

[Simplythebeast]

Just watching a female pilot on Sky news saying that having spoken with colleagues the most likely scenario is that the aircraft commenced a turning manouvre and the wing flexed beyond tolerance leading to structural failure, or that a short circuit started a very intense and fast spreading cockpit fire. Im sorry but where do they get these people from?

[philipat]

"How could they have located and removed the luggage from five no-shows already in the hold, and still leave within six minutes of scheduled departure time? "


Especially on the late flights, they are typically closing the doors 10-15 minutes ahead of scheduled departure. Either they find and offload the bags OR the passengers turn up. Whichever comes first generally. And after the longhaul heavy traffic is already gone, taxi time is very short, so its entirely possible

But five is a large number and, whilst there may be nothing at all to it, is does warrant examination. And I'm sure they have done so. Just not given out any information.

[glenbrook]

Never have I seen a blog like this on PPrune, nor any other aviation blog for that matter. In every airline, from the cleaners to the Senior C and T Capts everyone has a opinion. And none of us have a clue. My kids fly, and they report this is nbr 1 conversation on all flight decks, in Australia, anyway. May tomorrow give us insight, and the poor families, at least put out of some of their misery, so this thing can be solved, and people laid to rest.

There have been so many daft posts here, both from passengers and crew. It's annoying when you see a stupid post about meteors or a conspiracy. Sometimes I think why can't these people go get their kicks and dream up theories about Emilia Earhardt or DB Cooper. But really I understand.
Psychologically it is more comforting to make up a implausible theory than to simply accept that so little is known that no conclusions can be drawn. I intend to fly in that zone next week, so this incident troubles me too.

The only thing that comforts me is my belief that with the resources that are being applied to this incident, something will be found, although it could take a while yet. The Gulf of Thailand is a big place to search. If something has happened where the aircraft has ditched and sunk in one piece then we may be waiting some time for more information.

[Eclectic]

Curiouser and curiouser. From AH:

According to the states run Chinese news agency Xinhua Chinese police established that one of the Chinese passengers listed on the manifest never left China, is still at home and in possession of his passport, therefore was not on the accident flight. The passenger's passport had not been lost or stolen, the numbers on his passport and the passport number noted on the manifest are identical however.

Malaysia's Defense Ministry said, that as result of the verified discrepancies between passenger manifest and people on board of the aircraft, the Austrian and the Italian, the entire manifest is under scrutiny. At least 4 names are suspicious and are being investigated with the participation by the FBI from the USA.

China Southern Airlines, code share partner of Malaysia Airlines, reported that they sold a total of 7 tickets for the accident flight, amongst them the tickets for the Italian and the Austrian as well as one Dutch, one Malaysian, two Ukrainians and one Chinese.

[Xeque]

I just watched the KL news conference.
What I cannot understand is why they are concentrating all their search resources on the Malacca Strait? This would imply that they are certain the aircraft did a 180 and flew back across Malaysia. If this had been the case then they should have picked the aircraft up using their defense radar. Passengers would have been able to use cellphones at that point as well.
Extending the search in the Gulf of Thailand, or even the Gulf of Tonkin would make more sense if wreckage is really what they expect to find.

[snowfalcon2]

Short update at the end of today's air search in the Vietnam area:

- Vietnamese helicopter Mi-171 02 and the DHC-6 have returned to base at Phu Quoc and reported no positive sightings.

- The Director, Maritime Activities at Vung Tao port authorities reported that it had requested a passing containership to investigate the "metal debris" sightings off Vung Tao reported by a Hong Kong aircraft. However, the containership had detected no such fragments during 1730 to 1900 local time. There is a speculation the sighting may have been off nylon fishing nets or "sponges". Many fishing boats are in the area.

- Tomorrow, Vietnam plans to extend the search further northeast, apparently off the eastern coast in the South China Sea area.

- "A total of 34 aircraft and 40 vessels from various countries are involved in the search".

Source: Dan Tri via Google translate

[Passagiata]

If the fake passport holders were Africans (seems likely now ) then does that make hijacking/terrorism or people-smuggling more likely?

[A Squared]

@PortVale - found NOT to be a debris trail from MH370 - just ullage from a ship.

Given that ullage is the unfilled space in a container above the liquid, that seems unlikely.

[philipat]

"Not so, I believe. I believe they were checked in but it wasn't confirmed the bags were loaded. They could have been connecting passengers from another flight booked through and boarding passes issued, but they never made it to the gate. Various possibilities, including late arrival of their inbound connecting flight, would preclude them from boarding and also preclude their bags from being loaded. "


According to The Minister AND the MH Official at an earlier Press Conference, the bags from the missing passengers were on board but were located and offloaded before departure. I'm not suggesting that this is necessarily significant, just another item to check, especially if the passengers never claimed their checked bags after departure. We don't know.

[Laneez]

Now SKY news are shocking at the best of times but Capt J Alexandra your five mins of fame was a joke!! I am the flight safety officer for a big airline here in SEA and we are helping MAS in any way we can everything you said made you look stupid!!:mad:

[SOPS]

It easy, I assure you. You can remove no shows and depart on time. We do it all the time. I don't think there is any conspiracy there.

[Ulight]

Assuming cruising at 488 kts, and the first part of the flight path being DCT PIBOS R208 IKUKO M076F290 R208 IGARI M765 BITOD, it's possible to string together the following:

Leaves KL, makes it to IGARI, makes the turn from R208 onto M765. That would be consistent with the bearing of 26 degrees seen on Flightaware (Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370/history/20140307/1635Z/WMKK/ZBAA/tracklog)) to IKUKO, a slight left to 17 degrees then a right turn *of* 40 degrees to 59 degrees when moving from R208 onto M765. Assume an 'event' happens at this point, the a/c is at FL350. Looking at previous threads on this forum, 100nm seems feasible for a 777 to glide (http://www.pprune.org/tech-log/10205-gliding-777-747-etc-can-done.html). BITOD to VCS is 173.5nm, and the debris is past that by probably 80+ miles, so what could happen?

http://i57.tinypic.com/25i0zf9.jpg

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

Disappointing that no journalist at the latest news conference probed for an answer as to why they were searching a huge chunk of the Strait of Malacca west of Malaysia unless they had pretty firm evidence (military primary radar ?) to suggest the 777's turn-back had continued (without any other trace) for 300+ miles from the last known position en route ?

If everyone is publicly saying it disappeared at or near the IGARI waypoint they'd need a very strong suspicion or other evidence to divert the SAR effort so far away surely ?

[ Xeque I see you posted the same query while I was typing :-) ]

[paultr]

As a long time lurker i hope it is not too ghoulish to make my first post concerning what appears to be an awful tragedy.

However, having just watched the latest news conference I am mystified as to why they seem to have so many search areas in the Malacca Straits. It would seem more logical to extend the current search areas to the west and east of the bottom of Vietnam.

Is it normal practice to cover all bases or does this suggest they know something they have not announced ?

For tbe aircraft to have got to the Straits it would have to have flown over land - surely it would have been picked up on radar ? If it had turned around would it have not flown back on a reciprocal course as the pilot woukd figure there would be more chance of being found ?

[Nightingale14]

No they cannot have been Africans, not the Italian one anyway, as he is white skinned and Malaysian airlines said the passengers who boarded checked out for the photos. May not have been a good match but likely to spot an African travelling on a Caucasian passport....

[philipat]

"If everyone is publicly saying it disappeared at or near the IGARI waypoint they'd need a very strong suspicion or other evidence to divert the SAR effort so far away surely?"

Agreed, I posted the same thing earlier. Also, if the aircraft was back on a Westerly track, why are they not searching the dry land on Peninsular Malaysia (I don't think the aircraft would have detoured round Singapore?!!). There is a strong suggestion here that they have a lot more information than that being announced. Which would be normal.

[Dont Hang Up]

There is a lack of clarity on the type of surveillance data on which the last observations were made.

At the limits of coverage range, typical monopulse radar returns will continue to give good range information but with increasing bearing uncertainty. This can lead to false indication of a turn manoeuvre. ADS-B on the other hand may give increasingly intermittent coverage as the limits of the receiver range are reached, but all data decoded will be good. Error correction ensures a very low probability of path-loss data corruption.

It is important to know which type of surveillance source gave indication of a turn in those final returns.

[philipat]

"No they cannot have been Africans, not the Italian one anyway, as he is white skinned and Malaysian airlines said the passengers who boarded checked out for the photos. May not have been a good match but likely to spot an African travelling on a Caucasian passport.... "


There are Africans with Italian Passports and older non-Biometric Passports can be doctored, including a change of photograph. And in fairness KUL is quite good at this stuff. My wife and I recently transited KUL connecting to an MH A380 flight to LHR. We both have British Passports and, whilst I am obviously Caucasian, my wife is of Asian descent. Despite the fact we were travelling together in First Class, my wife was stopped at security for about 10 minutes because, although her face matched her picture in the Passport, she did not "Look British" (Whatever that means these days). I did pose that question but always go along with all security procedures without complaint. I thought that was very impressive security

[Return 2 Stand]

"How could they have located and removed the luggage from five no-shows already in the hold, and still leave within six minutes of scheduled departure time? "


Especially on the late flights, they are typically closing the doors 10-15 minutes ahead of scheduled departure. Either they find and offload the bags OR the passengers turn up. Whichever comes first generally. And after the longhaul heavy traffic is already gone, taxi time is very short, so its entirely possible

But five is a large number and, whilst there may be nothing at all to it, is does warrant examination. And I'm sure they have done so. Just not given out any information.

They were probably transit pax. If they didn't make the flight it's unlikely that the bags made it to the aircraft. If the bags did make it to the aircraft they would have been last on and likely loose in the bulk rather than in a can, very easy to locate.

[luoto]

" ACARS is not mandatory equipment. Aircraft can dispatch under the MEL with inop ACARS."

Do many carriers despatch with u/s ACARS ? Especially from hub? Mh said nothing about u/s ACARS so unless no problem alerts got lost in translation to no reports due to u/s ACARS.

[philipat]

"They were probably transit pax. If they didn't make the flight it's unlikely that the bags made it to the aircraft. If the bags did make it to the aircraft they would have been last on and likely loose in the bulk rather than in a can, very easy to locate"

How many times?? It was CONFIRMED BY THE MINISTER AND AN MH OFFICIAL that the bags were already loaded but were located and offloaded before the aircraft departed. Connex times at KUL, as at SIN, are very short. I have had 25 minute connections from Bali to London and had to get on the train out to the Satellite and Both I my bags made the connection.

[India Four Two]

Apart from being up-current as others have noted, the latest reported debris location (SE of Saigon) would be well within the range of the primary radar at Tan Son Nhat and more importantly, it is very close to the largest complex of offshore oil and gas platforms in Vietnam. Lots of people and lots of work boat activity.

[The Ancient Geek]

A stall does not imply a breakup.
AF447 was in a stall and dropped at 10000fpm in a nose high attitude.

[A Squared]

I just watched the KL news conference.
What I cannot understand is why they are concentrating all their search resources on the Malacca Strait?

How did we get from "P-3s searcing in the straits of Malacca" to "concentrating all their search efforts on the Malacca Strait" ?

I haven't seen the news conference you mention, but every recent article I've read says the search (in addition to being widend in the straits of Malacca) has also been extended further into the South China Sea than before. WHich makes sens when you don't find what you're looking for where you think it's most likely, you move the search into a wider area.

That's not the same as "concentrating all their search efforts on the Malacca Strait". Not even close.

[flt001]

Here's a screen grab of the search area from the media conference for those who missed it:

http://i57.tinypic.com/300v3uw.png

[Acklington]

I post 1361 proves credible then sea currents need to be taken into account, considering this report is 3 days after disappearance - earth :: an animated map of global wind and weather (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/07/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=109.69,10.48,3000/grid=on)

[AR1]

Promised I wouldn't get involved in speculating - and hopefully this doesn't count.

Regarding the pilot contacting MH370.

Why would Vietnam ATC request relay contact of an aircraft on Emergency frequency asking 'if they had transferred into Vietnamese airspace'? Unless of perhaps the A/C was overdue at that time. In which case I cant imagine it was MH370 responding.

[hawkerjet]

has the possibility of a drone hitting the aircraft been explored? That may explain the exuburance of so many international navies being involved

As the passport angle is being investigating more, it should also be noted that many countries in SE Asia still don't have the new style passports with embedded chip. It's realitively easy for people to get passports in this neck of the woods, as I have seen from various "helpers" leaving one country to go home and then coming back under a new passport with different name and birth dates..

[camel]

AR1

the report of a pilot contacting the a/c (in the New Str Times) was discredited in one of the news conferences saying that no contact had been made.

there was another poster a long time ago on this thread,flying in the area, saying that he had heard atc trying to reach the a/c . sorry i dont have time to find it now ..maybe you can look?

[very ex-ba]

One of the noshos was a Singapore businessman who decided to reroute to Singpore instead of taking the flight, due to a more urgent business meeting. His two colleague he believed. in the article I read, were on the MH370, but may have rerouted to Shanghai for a different meeting.
His story was reported in The Straits Times, a few days back and at that point he obviously had not seen the pax list, because he hadn't been able to contact his colleagues but wasn't sure which City they had gone to in the end.

So that accounts for one nosho and possibly for 3.

It's easy enough to check out the noshos reasons for missing the flight as they will all be alive.

[Eclectic]

Malaysia Sending Ships to Check Debris Near Hong Kong - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/plane-debris-hunters-seek-suspected-aircraft-window-part.html)

Malaysia Sending Ships to Check Debris Near Hong Kong

[rachcollins]

There are reports around that the two passengers that were travelling on fake passports were originally booked on different airlines flying different routes before being changed onto MH370.

Benjaporn Krutnait, owner of the Grand Horizon travel agency in Pattaya, Thailand, said the Iranian, a long-term business contact who she knew only as “Mr Ali”, first asked her to book cheap tickets to Europe for the two men on March 1. Ms Benjaporn initially reserved one of the men on a Qatar Airways flight and the other on Etihad.

But the tickets expired when Ms Benjaporn did not hear back from Mr Ali. When he contacted her again on Thursday, she rebooked the men on the Malaysia Airlines flight through Beijing because it was the cheapest available. Ms Benjaporn booked the tickets through China Southern Airlines via a code share arrangement.

A friend of Mr Ali paid Ms Benjaporn cash for the tickets, she said, adding that it was quite common for people to book tickets in Pattaya through middle men such as Mr Ali, who then take a commission.

[Lonewolf_50]

After finding cracks in the Wings on the 787 production line and added to the 787 Battery issue, this couldn't have come at a worse time for Boeing. The last thing they need is for this to be blamed on the manufacturer.
FWIW, the 777 is a considerably more mature aircraft/program/system than the 787. Don't see how 787 growing pains/issues are relevant to a 777 going missing.
I would suggest a Pan Am 103 situation but the curious bit is lack of wreckage so far.
If it happened over the ocean, why are you surprised that it's hard to find? Most stuff sinks. (Granted, there is plenty of stuff in an aircraft that floats) Having been involved in two maritime SAR efforts for missing aircraft, I can say that it is a damnably frustrating and time consuming endeavour. At least on the second occasion, one of the two pilots was found alive. (By another asset in the SAR mission, not by my crew).
Surely if the plane was shot down, by Vietnamese or the Malaysian's - both btw have trigger happy MIG fighter pilots, they would come clean.
On what basis do you assert that Malaysian and Vietnamese military pilots are trigger happy? Who have they shot up, or shot down, lately? Not well played. :=

Regarding Commander Marks of US Seventh Fleet: he overlooked Rule number 1 of a staff officer, which reads "Never overlook a chance to keep your fool mouth shut."
What a high speed stall, surely this aircraft is not capable of a high speed stall? Is this aircraft capable of getting into coffin corner? Why wouldn't it be? Doesn't every plane in this class have a coffin corner that pilots know to avoid? I don't think any airplane design is able to void the laws of physics, nor the fundamentals of aerodynamics.
but if you knew where the Malacca Straights are you might raise an eyebrow?
I do, and I did. Seems someone is searching based on an ever expanding datum.

I wish to ask about something that got a lot of press after a well publicized incident over cabin pressurization: the private jet carrying Payne Stewart (golfer and US Open champ) and his friends went down after such an incident ... but it flew by itself for quite sometime after the pressurization failure took place.

With this 777:
Q1. If the aircraft gets to FL 350, and levels off, under what set of conditions would an explosive decompression, or other major cabin pressure incident, be related to the AP not being able to maintain cruise altitude, airspeed, and heading?

Q2. What about an event near the change from climb to level off? I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that the 777's AP allows the crew to have already programmed in the altitude and airspeed/Mach Nr desired for the flight to PEK, and that upon reaching the programmed altitude, it would do as selected ... unless WHAT happened?

I realize that I am asking about two major and more or less unrelated systems failures/malfunctions. (Talk about low probability).

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

@ Luoto

At a previous press conference the authorities have already said (and someone posted many pages back) that they had received nothing untoward on ACARS from the aircraft, implying that (a) it was functioning, and (b) no adverse indicators prior to its final transmission.

[monoceros]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiXhKYFCAAI19bJ.png:large
note the dotted red box around both the original area and the :confused: new :confused: area.

From: Malaysia Airlines flight MH370: Civil aviation chief confirms that search area has been widened - live | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2014/mar/10/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-search-continues-live-updates)

[JamesT73J]

Quite possible, but switching your transponder off, you may still appear on primary radar returns if you're in radar range, but as an unidentified blip.

I'd add that it would require some detailed knowledge of the surveillance properties of a large area of airspace, and where could one take a 777 that wouldn't be noticed?

For my tuppence I think SAR seems like a long and very painstaking process, and it's incompatible with rolling news and social media.

They'll find it. It just may take a while.

[OPENDOOR]

I realize that I am asking about two major and more or less unrelated systems failures/malfunctions. (Talk about low probability)

Helios 522 + TWA 800?

[YRP]

Coagie makes a good point. If you are seriously interested in effective research I recommend learning a few quick-win effective research techniques so you don't have to bash fellow PPRuNers for their sources! E.g. start with Google and a few well chosen search words like AF447 acoustic locator sonar frequency.

Then in seconds you might easily stumble over stuff like:
BEA to examine why acoustic sweep missed AF447 recorders - 5/5/2011 - Flight Global
https://fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/dow...issertacao.pdf


Slip and turn, none of these links nor the ones I found make as strong a statement as Coagie did, that the submarine search was ineffective because they were simply unaware of the signal being sought.

However that second link is quite interesting. I had not seen it; thank you for including it.

Coagie, there is a big difference between not knowing what signal to look for and adjusting the sensors settings / filtering / noise suppression, whatever, to improve the sensor range. Further, none of the sources I found indicate that the reanalysis of the tapes actually _did_ locate the signal. It appears it gave them a new search possibility that did not pan out, unless it was the basis of the phase 3 search.

Michelson interference? As in the Michelson-Morley experiment on the speed of light that demonstrated the lack of an ether (or that by a coincidence we happen to be stationary relative to the ether... always wondered why they discounted that possibility so readily -- okay only being tongue-in-cheek here :) ). I'm not quite sure what that has to do with underwater acoustics...

[Roadster280]

Very ex-ba -

The max radius of a cell in the GSM system is 35KM, usually much less. CDMA is about double that in theory (although in practice, about the same).

If the postulation is that the flight had descended to low level, then those ranges hold true. They would have to be within 35KM or so of a suitable cell. Added to the attenuation effect of being inside the aircraft skin, it doesn't seem likely to me. If the aircraft landed on a remote airfield (also seems improbable to me), it would have to be so isolated as to be entirely devoid of communications for it to have not been picked up by now. You can't hide an intact B777 when the world is looking for you. There's always the sat phones of course, but they aren't exactly commonly carried.

On the subject of the those whose phones have been called and they rung, this seems like rubbish to me. For the phone to have appeared to ring, the phone must be registered with the network (i.e. in a group of cells), been paged, and then responded to the page. If that had occurred, the network KNOWS which cell the mobile responded from, and records it. Ergo, the SAR authorities would know where to look. If they knew which cell to look in, I doubt it would take so many days to find it, and I would have expected the authorities to have said they know where the phones are/were.

I've had nothing to add on the aviation aspects, I'm just frequent SLF, so I have kept out of that, but I am a telecom engineer.

[luoto]

"So it is at the bottom of the sea, where the ELT transmissions can't be seen.
But the reality is that it could be anywhere in a radius of well over 1,000 miles."

So even if the Elt beacon is out of range, the emergency locator beacon that is usually with CVR/FDR will have/should deploy and be visible to those scanning the known frequency up to 6000m deep. I gave full details and links yesterday. Or course the signal won't radiate from 10km asl though.

I also caution people to read carefully Official statements with modifiers such as may. One word can give a lot of wriggle room and convey different meanings,

[training wheels]

A CCTV video of the Captain and FO going through security before they board the flight. I'm amazed at the clarity of the video. Surely the fake passport holders boarding the flight could be easily identified as well.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=217116208486081&set=vb.216929135171455&type=2&theater

[jeeplaw]

[quote[The max radius of a cell in the GSM system is 35KM, usually much less. CDMA is about double that in theory (although in practice, about the same).

If the postulation is that the flight had descended to low level, then those ranges hold true. They would have to be within 35KM or so of a suitable cell. Added to the attenuation effect of being inside the aircraft skin, it doesn't seem likely to me. If the aircraft landed on a remote airfield (also seems improbable to me), it would have to be so isolated as to be entirely devoid of communications for it to have not been picked up by now. You can't hide an intact B777 when the world is looking for you. There's always the sat phones of course, but they aren't exactly commonly carried.

On the subject of the those whose phones have been called and they rung, this seems like rubbish to me. For the phone to have appeared to ring, the phone must be registered with the network (i.e. in a group of cells), been paged, and then responded to the page. If that had occurred, the network KNOWS which cell the mobile responded from, and records it. Ergo, the SAR authorities would know where to look. If they knew which cell to look in, I doubt it would take so many days to find it, and I would have expected the authorities to have said they know where the phones are/were.

[/quote]

I absolutely agree. I'm not in aviation, but I deal more with the forensic analysis of data, including cell phones. As of today it looks like 19 people have come together to say they've attempted to call and successfully ring onboard cell phones.

19.

Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Passengers' Mobile Phones Ring But Not Answered (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-passengers-mobile-phones-ring-not-answered-1439560)

That seems a little suspect, but at the same time not that unbelievable. These phones could have been roaming and could have registered, profile/prl updates with the nearest network cell. When I travel internationally that's how it works for me if my phone is set for that.

I wonder how much of this information is going up the flagpole to the people who need to know, assuming it's true. At this point in time, I have no reason based on the what the news is reporting that it's NOT true. So in essence, there may be a phone that is registered on a network receiving incoming trx.

Now where those phones are? Who knows, but as you mentioned the authorities CAN backtrack off the signals.

[India Four Two]

It would appear that an aircraft falling over a dense jungle canopy, especially if breaking up at altitude, would be difficult to find.
Perhaps that is where they should be looking, especially in southern Vietnam.


Wild Goose,
There's not much canopy left in southern Vietnam. South of Saigon, it is effectively one giant, heavily-populated rice field, broken up by canals. Someone would have noticed a 777 coming down.

[RatherBeFlying]

The US (and probably other) Navy operates hydrophone networks to track submarines. There's other listening posts. When the USS Scorpion collapsed underwater, research hydrophones in Newfoundland and the Canaries caught the sound and triangulation helped narrow the search.

A lot of tape had to be analysed to determine which noise was the collapse event.

There would be an acoustic event if an intact hull (or big enough piece) hit at speed. But would the sound propagate in shallow water to wherever a hydrophone would pick it up -- provided that there's any hydrophones that would pick up acoustic events in the area.

Navies are very secretive about where their hydrophone networks are placed.

[threemiles]

A CCTV video of the Captain and FO going through security before they board the flight. I'm amazed at the clarity of the video. Surely the fake passport holders boarding the flight could be easily identified as well.

Jackets left on
Alarm seems to go off, but
Manual search rather non existant

As these details pop up (by whoever for whatever purpose), we will see many more of these breaches.
All passengers searched?
All hand baggage screened?
All belly baggage screened?

[Nightingale14]

Seems you are correct about doctored passport photos as Malaysian authorities have confirmed Italian passport holder was black. Says believes dealing with a passport forgery ring.

[flt001]

Given the press conference and the SAR grid update, are we now able to assume that an 'event' causing it to crash into the sea at IGARI is now not the favoured theory, unless it slipped under the surface at this location without trace, although there is some precedent for this it does seem unlikely.

Therefore it flew for some distance after the last piece of public available data and crashed somewhere else. I'm discounting the theory that this bird is somewhere on the ground intact. Assuming the authorities have more detail than us (very much hope so) the change in SAR grid does seem to indicate the plane flew for at least another 30-60mins before crashing somewhere.

That leaves us with the option of an unlikely catastrophic electrical failure at FL350 causing the transponder to fail along with anything but basic instruments & controls, perhaps a RAT failure so no chance of radio contact. Then an attempted return under VFR at night, got lost, fuel starvation and crash. We then need to factor in the failure/non activation of the ELT.

In other words the last two paragraphs need a lot of holes to line up to occur.

The more realistic option based on this (sad to say) is someone pulled the CBs in an attempted hijack, flew for sometime, passengers/crew attempted to retake and the result was a crash.

In both cases the SAR area is much larger as the plane could have flow in any direction for 4/5 hours. I think it will be found but outside even the current search grid.

[Marty33]

Does it seem likely to the 777 guys that the pressurization was not set, mis-set, or malfunctioned? Was MH 370 already at cruise? Possibly a Payne Stewart Lear Jet type of event?


Failing that theory, seems like explosive decompression from whatever cause is most likely.

[SloppyJoe]

The US (and probably other) Navy operates hydrophone networks to track submarines. There's other listening posts. When the USS Scorpion collapsed underwater, research hydrophones in Newfoundland and the Canaries caught the sound and triangulation helped narrow the search.

I would assume this sort of technology requires line of site (or whatever it is called underwater). I am guessing that the previous incident you are talking of happened in the Atlantic? Where it is thought this aircraft went down is almost surrounded by land, I do not know how the sound wave would get around these masses.

[AN2 Driver]

The position of that debris field would indicate it stayed on the flight plan route or close to it.

[Wire_Mark]

@Roadster280

Unless extended range is enabled which will give a 70km cell range :)

Another quiet, lurking telecom engineer here too.....

[papershuffler]

Tribute page to the captain with pics of his sim set up at home:

TRIBUTE: Who exactly is Malaysia Airlines Captain Zaharie Shah of MH370? - Sharelor (http://www.sharelor.net/1/post/2014/03/tribute-who-exactly-is-malaysia-airlines-captain-zaharie-shah-of-mh370.html)

(sorry if link already posted, I haven't seen it here.)

[RedRobot]

Hello all. I only have 1 post but I will try to make it a good one.

In regards to someone referencing cabin pressure. A little more info...

On October 25, 1999, a chartered Learjet 35 was scheduled to fly from Orlando, Florida to Dallas, Texas. Early in the flight the aircraft, which was cruising at altitude on autopilot, quickly lost cabin pressure. All on board were incapacitated due to hypoxia — a lack of oxygen. The aircraft failed to make the westward turn toward Dallas over north Florida. It continued flying over the southern and midwestern United States for almost four hours and 1,500 miles (2,400 km). The plane ran out of fuel and crashed into a field near Aberdeen, South Dakota after an uncontrolled descent.
http://i59.tinypic.com/oh1rtc.jpg

[Mark654321]

in light of today's switch to searching mainland Malaysia, The Malacca Straits and further north to the Andaman Sea.
Can a Airliner traverse the whole of Malaysia without anyone detecting it?
Also should we not have heard from Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam's Aviation Authorities about any efforts they might be taking to find this missing aircraft?

[Stanley11]

Can a Airliner traverse the whole of Malaysia without anyone detecting it?

If ever there is a chance of a 'cover up', this might be the only one that makes sense. In other words, if the aircraft really did cross over to the Malacca Straits and M'sia didn't know about it from the onset, it might reveal a severe and embarrassing gap in the air defense and radar coverage in that part of the country.

[barti01]

Stanley11, link to news in post #1385 under the map

[snowfalcon2]

this is basically the same area as the previous info about Vung Tau debris?

Yes.
Vung Tau Port Authority already had a passing ship check the area and it reported nothing special. The Port Authority have also sent out a fast boat, but it will not have arrived before darkness.

I suspect this is also the same sighting that has been reported "off Hong Kong", as it originated from the HK aviation authorities after a pilot report.

[snowfalcon2]

The position of that debris field would indicate it stayed on the flight plan route or close to it.

If you mean the Vung Tau sighting,
Sorry to disappoint you but in previous postings the flight plan route was over the Vietnamese mainland via BITIS over TSN and HCMC.

[timmermc]

Despite some critics, it seems authorities giving there best:

Asia News | South East Asia News | AsiaOne (http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/missing-mh370-1788-vessels-17800-crewmen-deployed)

[1stspotter]

In 1979 a Varig Boeing B707 took off from Tokyo Narita to Los Angeles. The cargo aircraft lost radio contact 30 minutes after takeoff.

The remains of the aircraft nor of the crew were never found.
The cause of the incident was concluded as cabin depressurization, which killed the crew.

1979 Boeing 707-323C disappearance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Boeing_707-323C_disappearance)

[SaturnV]

Egyptair 990, intact, went straight in 60 NM off Nantucket. Very little debris on the surface. Small oil sheen on the surface when the first Coast Guard ship arrived near the position where transponder contact was lost. Depth at the site was 250-270 feet. U S Navy found the boxes from the pingers, and what happened in the cockpit was subsequently revealed.

Excerpts from the ATC transcript:

6:54:00 R86 Egyptair nine ninety radar contact lost recycles transponder squawk one seven one two
.....
7:05:29 R86 So yeah could you just switch Lufthansa over and ah ah maybe ask him I could I could ask him
7:05:32 B18 Yeah send him back when you're done
7:05:35 R86 All right thank you
7:05:36 B18 Sure
7:05:37 R86 Alpha zulu
7:05:55 DLH499 New York Center Lufthansa four ninety nine heavy is uh one two nine uh one two five nine two
7:06:02 R86 Lufthansa four ninety nine New York Center I could use your assistance could you try calling a Egyptair niner niner zero on this frequency and see if he's ah checks on
7:06:13 DLH499 Okay standby Egyptair niner niner zero this is Lufthansa four ninety nine do you read
7:06:30 DLH499 Egyptair niner niner zero this is Lufthansa four ninety nine do you read
7:06:43 DLH499 I am sorry there is no reply New York and at one two one five we have no ELT
7:06:51 R86 Lufthansa four ninety nine I want to thank you for your assistance you can return to Boston center now.

If the co-pilot had waited until mid-way across the pond, might never have found him.

[Roadster280]

@Wire_Mark - agreed, but so far as I am aware, ERCs are to be found in sparsely populated interior regions, like Australia, Canada, Russia etc. I don't know if there any in the area under consideration.

On the 19 whose phones have "rung", thinking about it, I suppose the home network could be configured to provide ring tone to the calling party while the mobile is paged. This isn't done in European and N American networks, but I don't know about China. I do know that so called "Colour Ring Back Tones" are very popular in Asia, where the caller hears music while the called party is located. This may be behind this story. Either way, examination of the signaling records will reveal whether it is "synthetic" ring tone, or the mobile genuinely has responded to a page. I expect the Chinese have looked into this.

[acad_l]

Re the 1979 Varig Boeing B707 cargo that disappeared in the Pacific with some painting collection and was never found.

"The cause of the accident was concluded as cabin depressurization."

Hmmm.

That quote is not particularly credible. If you look at the source, it sounds more like pure speculation. Newspaper article twenty years later.

(I lived in Brazil at the time. The captain, who had survived the Varig Ermenonville fire and crash, frequented the same car dealership which I patronized. After that first crash, he was said to go weekly on a pilgrimage to Aparecida.)

[selfin]

Can a Airliner traverse the whole of Malaysia without anyone detecting it?

Malaysia's civil/military declared PSR (ENR 1.6 (http://aip.dca.gov.my/aip%20pdf/ENR/ENR%201/ENR%201.6/Enr1_6.pdf)) coverage depicted here:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/320x240q90/802/o7va.jpg (https://imageshack.com/i/mao7vaj)
Google map version (http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/display/20140310081149-31028-map.html)

[Steve6443]

Just watching a female pilot on Sky news saying that having spoken with colleagues the most likely scenario is that the aircraft commenced a turning manouvre and the wing flexed beyond tolerance leading to structural failure, or that a short circuit started a very intense and fast spreading cockpit fire. Im sorry but where do they get these people from?

From here perhaps? But being serious, those people are asking about the lack of ELT signals, just think back to the crash of Air Inter 148 where the ELT was destroyed on impact, they aren't indestructible......

[First.officer]

Post 1334 - I was wondering the exact same thing, are the Trent Engines monitored in live time (via ACARS?) by RR?? no answers I've seen thus far, and I was under the impression possibly these days, that faults and alike are automatically sent back to the engine manufacturer for remedial action(s)?

[mabuhay_2000]

I am not a professional pilot, so I will not be trying to add anything to that side of the thread, although I have read all the comments with interest.

I am a retired police detective inspector, serving in the UK and HKG, leading serious crime squads and intel units, who moved into AVSEC after my police service. I spent several years managing airport security ops for a number of airlines at a couple of 'hot' Asian airports.

Therefore, I will restrict my comments to the case-solving and AVSEC side of these events concerning MH370. First up, common sense and logic invariably worm best when trying to figure out these cases. Somebody, somewhere, knows a lot more than they are letting on for public consumption and I'd wager that various nations and agencies are not sharing what they know with the others involved.

A large object, such as a B777 cannot simply disappear without somebody having some knowledge of its last known whereabouts. Failure to plot it on military radar seems highly unlikely. Failure to share that information seems rather more likely. In a busy shipping area it also seems highly unlikely that somebody wouldn't have seen something.

It seems highly unlikely that it could have evaded detection and landed somewhere after a highjacking. First, it would need a considerable runway to accommodate it and, second, it would have had to overfly a hefty chunk of land and somebody would most likely have seen something.

It seems much more likely, unfortunately, that it has gone down somewhere and the fact that nothing at all of it has been found strongly indicates that the search is not being conducted in the right area.

That brings back round the loop to the failure of parties to share what they know of its whereabouts from various military and government services who track even the smallest of aircraft flying in airspace around their nations' borders.

But there is pretty much no other logical conclusion that they are looking in the wrong places.

[LASJayhawk]

If there was a structural failure for what ever reason, I have no doubt we will find the aircraft.

If a government wanted the aircraft or the people on board for what ever reason, then I doubt we will find it. It would not be that hard to spoof the ATC system with another aircraft with a mode s transponder strapped to the boeings call sign.

[Capt. Inop]

Can a Airliner traverse the whole of Malaysia without anyone detecting it?

A B777 sure can't. And that's what we're talking about in this thread?

[Old Boeing Driver]

A worthy, analytical, and common sense post.

We know the plane disappeared, but where is it.

I think you are correct in that they are looking in the wrong place.

[pax britanica]

To add to the recent postings from Telecoms people -I am not a mobile phone expert but I do know about undersea cables and one of the big problems here is elapsed time since the incident if there are significant surface or sub surface currents in the area.
Even a modest surface current of 3 or three knots can expand the potential search area by an enormous amount after three or four days creating a classic catch-22 where the longer it takes to find a trace means the harder it is to find a trace.

Sub surface currents are not always well documented and do not necessarily act in the same way as surface ones. So rather than a predictable drift of say 2 knots eastwards they can add a sort of crosswind component effect creating a north or southeast vector making the SAR job harder still.

Otherwise it seemed very unlikely from the start that there is, whatever the cause, going to be a very sad outcome

[Taildragger67]

Can a Airliner traverse the whole of Malaysia without anyone detecting it?

If said airliner's transponder was inop (either intentionally or not), then whilst there might be a radar return, would it necessarily be recognised (and recorded) as belonging to that particular aircraft?

[nigel osborne]

Latest info at 15.30 today suggest possible debris now found a long way from its final known position. We have been here before though so lets hope its true this time.

CNN reporting the two people who produced the stolen passports allegedly looked Iranian and African ??

Also seen reported elsewhere that after ATC lost contact with MAS 370 they asked a Vietnam Airlines pilots to try and contact the plane. He was 30 mins ahead of the MAS plane. Reported that he made contact but seems voices from the cockpit were very muffled as if it was miles away.

Malaysian Authorities are still not commenting why they have been searching the Maccalan Straights, which is in completely the opposite direction from where it had been heading.

[flt001]

A B777 sure can't. And that's what we're talking about in this thread?

This is what confuses me. Assuming they have a half decent military radar system they will know or not if MH370 crossed back over the country. That is why they are searching there after all...but if they know this then why still bother to search along the flight path and up towards HK.

Unless they don't actually know anything more than FR24! :confused:

[andrasz]

@selfin

Many thanks for your efforts, it is one of the most informative posts in the past 500 (if not 1000).

I would have assumed that an aircraft would NOT be able to cross the peninsula without appearing on PSR but apparently this is not the case (though we do not know how many military radar sites are there that are unpublished in the AIP).

... whilst there might be a radar return, would it necessarily be recognized ...

selfin's diagram demonstrates that theoretically even a T7 could cross the peninsula without showing up on radar. However if it does show up for any period, I'm sure the radar return would be investigated, especially if ATC is aware that there is a missing aircraft. Of course there is always the possibility that a weak return beyond the effective range was recorded, but not displayed. ATC radar screens no longer show actual signals from the radar antenna, rather a computer generated image that is based on the processed signals. There are very complex algorithms to filter out backscatter and other noise (one of the most closely guarded secrets of military radar manufacturers), and whether a faint real target makes it on the screen will be a function of whether the computers can distinguish between noise and target. Also the radar display may be set for a certain range, so even if the actual radar antenna captures a more distant target, it will not necessarily display on the screen. However the primary signals are stored for a period of time, to be retrieved in situations we are now discussing. Also as it had been discussed previously on this thread, the military operates more sensitive radar stations the existence of which are not necessarily in the public domain, and their data may be available. Using more sensitive (hence slower) algorithms much more may be retrieved from the raw signals than what was originally displayed on the screen. Undoubtedly this had already been done, and may have prompted the search along the western coast of the peninsula.

However this is not an exact science. There might be some very faint radar returns that may or may not be the missing aircraft, first they need to be cross checked against other identified traffic. Also these faint signals at the edge of the theoretical range usually don't form a continuous track, but are intermittent pings as reception conditions fluctuate between poor and nil. I can easily envision that Malaysian radar picked up something that might have been MH370 given the place and the time, but authorities would not want to make a public statement about it in case it turns out to be a cold trail just like so many others - however the possibility is high enough to allot some SAR resources to follow it up, especially after three days of searching in the primary area yielded nothing.

[Prof2MDA]

I am wondering why they have not pulled the records off any of the shipping traffic that would have traversed the area. That is a high traffic region, and those ships would have most likely had such systems, as outlined in Wiki:
Voyage Radar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyage_data_recorder)

[PETERLIM]

Yes, Rolls Royce at their Derby HQ do track live the operational performance of all their aircraft engines, but not exact location. They would at least have noted when transmission stopped, probably the same time as radar transponder.

[Capt. Inop]

If there was a structural failure

It wasn't.
If the B777 were to have some nasty secrets it would have been uncovered by now. It's been in service for a long time.
For any pilot trained om the B777, it takes a bomb to remove it from the map just like that.

[mabuhay_2000]

As I mentioned in my first comment, I feel well qualified to comment on the security issues, after my years spent as a detective inspector and, subsequently, an AVSEC specialist.

The furore surrounding the confirmed use of at least two stolen passports by PAX on MH370 raises many issues but doesn't strongly indicate terrorism or foul-play in this specific case.

There is a highly variable standard of screening indifferent countries, even different airports in the same country. There is no standardised training, globally. There is no global standard for passport design and security features. There is no global agreement over the use of the Interpol stolen passport database. There is no requirement for countries to notify Interpol about stolen passports. Most countries pay only cursory attention to passports when PAX are leaving a country. Airlines have no access to any stolen passport databases and only check for the appropriate visas at check-in.

By now, you should be getting the picture: there are more holes in the security net than a sieve. However, there are a number of factors that should have set alarm bells ringing. Tickets paid in cash, tickets bought by a third party, a long-way-round itinerary, one-way tickets, etc., are all classic indicators that something dodgy is going on and should be investigated before the two PAX are allowed to board that flight.

However, all these signs were missed. Why? I think the lack of good, old-fashioned paper tickets, which contained all the information needed to join the dots on a single coupon, is partly to blame. That being said, these PAX did have a paper coupon with the info on it and still the warning signs were missed. I suspect that check-in staff, many of whom are now contracted from third party vendors by airlines, do not have the requisite training to spot the warning signs.

As I mentioned above, immigration staff often do not have access to the right information and often pay no attention to other travel documentation aside from the passer, so they miss the warning signs as well. Security staff are concerned only with physical security not documentation. Then, of course, we have to remember that even well-trained humans make mistakes.

But the bottom line is that it is far, far too easy to evade detection when travelling with false or stolen travel documents. Not all those who do it are terrorists, but they certainly are criminals and up to no good.

Does this help us solve the riddle of MH370? No, right now it's a distraction from the main aim, which is to find the aircraft. Only then can the proper investigation begin. It will have to work backwards. Finding out the cause of (almost certain) crash and, if foul play was involved, working backwards to try and find out who was involved.

[RJC]

@Roadster280 @Wire_Mark

To prevent the use of mobiles already aboard held by crew and passengers, a couple of mobile phone jammers could have been taken aboard, they are quite effective and some look like wireless access points so could easily be mistaken for a bit of IT kit by airside security.

[A Squared]

Somebody, somewhere, knows a lot more than they are letting on for public consumption and I'd wager that various nations and agencies are not sharing what they know with the others involved.

A large object, such as a B777 cannot simply disappear without somebody having some knowledge of its last known whereabouts. Failure to plot it on military radar seems highly unlikely. Failure to share that information seems rather more likely. In a busy shipping area it also seems highly unlikely that somebody wouldn't have seen something.

It seems highly unlikely that it could have evaded detection and landed somewhere after a highjacking. First, it would need a considerable runway to accommodate it and, second, it would have had to overfly a hefty chunk of land and somebody would most likely have seen something.


All you're missing is a plausible reason why they would keep it a secret. That's a pretty serious hole in the theory. The players who would have the radar track on Air Defense radar, but are keeping it secret would be: Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, tenuously, Thailand, even less plausibly, Indonesia.

Pick any one of those. Assume that they have radar track data which indicates where the airplane went. What *possible* reason would they have for keeping it secret?

[Global Warrior]

To prevent the use of mobiles already aboard held by crew and passengers, a couple of mobile phone jammers could have been taken aboard, they are quite effective and some look like wireless access points so could easily be mistaken for a bit of IT kit by airside security.

Wouldn't Hijackers just confiscate mobile phones? If indeed there was a hijack

[mabuhay_2000]

Surely large, unidentified radar return, flying in controlled airspace, would prompt an interception to evaluate a potential threat? :confused:

[scudpilot]

Surely a lot easier to just jam them than search several hundred passengers.

[Lonewolf_50]

The prolonged and unsuccessful search clearly illustrates a system failure in the organisation.
I'll offer that it illustrates the lack of a flaming datum. Estimates of where it might have gone down are not the same as more substantive cues regarding where and when it went down.

Granted, organizing and executing a multi-national search effort requires a well run command and control scheme, and a lot of practice.

[Mark in CA]

Originally Posted by mabuhay_2000
There is no global standard for passport design and security features.


The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) issues passport standards which are treated as recommendations to national governments. The size of passports normally comply with ISO/IEC 7810 ID-3 standard, which specifies a size of 125 × 88 mm (4.921 × 3.465 in). This size is the B7 format.

Machine-readable passport standards have been issued by the ICAO, with an area set aside where most of the information written as text is also printed in a manner suitable for optical character recognition.

Biometric passports (or e-Passports) have an embedded contactless smart card chip in order to conform to ICAO standards. The chips contain data about the passport holder, a photograph in digital format and data about the passport itself.

[GlobalNav]

Mabuhay_2000: "Surely large, unidentified radar return, flying in controlled airspace, would prompt an interception to evaluate a potential threat? :confused:"

As in aviation security in many countries, military radar surveillance capability is not equaled by the competence of its practitioners. :ugh:

[Swiss Cheese]

I recall the Boeing 737-400 Adam Air Flight 574 accident - 1st Jan 2007 - departed cruise altitude of FL350 and disappeared into the Straits of Makassar. Nothing was found until 10 days later when fisherman came across a large fragment of the tail. The black boxes were located by a US Navy Ship, the Mary Sears, 27 days after the disappearance, and took considerably longer to recover them.

Probable cause of the Adam Air accident was loss of control whilst attempting to trouble shoot faulty INS system.

[mabuhay_2000]

The key word there is RECOMMENDATIONS.

Countries do not have to abide by them and many don't. The security features vary from several sophisticated features to hardly any!

And security features are rendered pointless if the operators at immigration desks cannot recognise problems with them! :confused:

[Spencerconnor]

My point about RR monitoring the Trent engine is twofold.
Firstly, a live time data stream would provide a definitive timescale and secondly but crucially would indicate flight after the transponder ceased.

[Old Boeing Driver]

If the radars were operable and properly manned. At the point they lost contact, they would have only been read by longer range type radar, which may not see a primary blip at that distance. (would be primary if transponder switched off)

Closer in the radar is a bit better and probably would set off some alerts.

Your mention of a lot of different people not wanting to share info is undoubtedly correct. I perceive a big "turf" war there, and the left hand will not let the right hand have any information.

Food for thought. There are a lot of training scenarios going on in that region where fighters intercept airliners for practice.

A few years ago, an F-4 hit a Spanish DC-9 and everyone but the F-4 RIO died.

Not saying this is the case, but someone there knows more than what is being published.

[flipperb]

As the search stretches on without success, I'm inclined to wonder if the loss of Comms might have been separated from the loss of the a/c by some considerable amount of time.

Is there a scenario in which something knocks out all Comms, transponder, etc. but leaves the a/c otherwise operational? Perhaps a fire, and the crew tried to troubleshoot for several minutes (or longer) until the flight control systems were disrupted?

Such a scenario might put the crash site dozens or even hundreds of miles from where Comms were lost.

[mabuhay_2000]

Thanks for the radar pointer.

There are a lot of historical tensions between countries in this region. Malaysia-Singapore, Thailand-Cambodia/Laos, Vietnam-China, Philippines-China, Indonesia-Malaysia, etc.

The Chinese are already having a pop at the Malaysians about the perceived lack of effort and information they're providing.

Does anybody know why the US is the only lot searching the Straits of Malacca? And why they are? When the aircraft would have had to have flown all the way back across Malaysia?

Seems odd.

[Globally]

I recall a Lauda Air Boeing 767 that went down coincidentally in the same theater maybe 20 years ago, due to inadvertent t/r deployment during climb. Twin engine along the centerline like the 777. T/R opening in flight was supposed to be fail-safe, but it occurred nevertheless.

[Una Due Tfc]

Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but I was out playing golf earlier and something occured to me.

ADS bangs out a position report to whatever ATC center the aircraft is logged on to the moment Altitude or heading change, where no ADS reports received?

[DB64]

It wasn't.
If the B777 were to have some nasty secrets it would have been uncovered by now. It's been in service for a long time.
For any pilot trained om the B777, it takes a bomb to remove it from the map just like that.


Isn't that somewhat presumptive? "Nasty secrets" have often remained hidden for many years before they bite.

[LGW Vulture]

For comparative purposes only, the Adam Air 574 wreckage took nine days to discover. The CVR and FDR were recovered some eight months later!

[Organfreak]

Firstly, a live time data stream would provide a definitive timescale and secondly but crucially would indicate flight after the transponder ceased.

Don'tcha think that RR might have, er, called somebody in that case? :confused:

[Old Boeing Driver]

"It wasn't.
If the B777 were to have some nasty secrets it would have been uncovered by now. It's been in service for a long time.
For any pilot trained om the B777, it takes a bomb to remove it from the map just like that."

If I remember correctly, a faulty repair by Boeing brought JAL 123 down.

[Old Boeing Driver]

There were posts a long time ago asking the same question as to why the US was searching the Straits of Malacca.

Some answers were:

They have a P-3 base nearby and do regular SAR training.

One of the interested countries asked the US to search that particular area.

Someone knows something and wants to get their stories and evidence straight.

I know that last one entails a conspiracy, but this is a rumor network.

[John Farley]

mabuhay 2000 in post 1417 makes some very interesting and relevant observations.

If I was involved and could request one bit of information to help consider the various possible scenarios it would be be the detail behind the oft mentioned quote that the aircraft may have turned back. Presumably this was based on radar paints - but if so how many and what did they actually show?

[MG23]

ADS bangs out a position report to whatever ATC center the aircraft is logged on to the moment Altitude or heading change, where no ADS reports received?

None were received by the online ADS-spotters in the region after contact was lost. That doesn't necessarily mean none were received by ATC, as they presumably have better coverage, but it seems likely that no more were sent.

[GarageYears]

If the wingtip had "fallen off" and the aircraft kept flying (albeit severely compromised), wouldn't you think the crew might have sent out a radio call or two, eh? Anything remotely similar, short of a catastrophic structural failure, wouldn't have rendered the crew silent on the situation I'd wager.

Given the lack of discovery to date and the search areas being looked at, it would seem:

a) All comms was lost with the aircraft at time X
b) The aircraft crashed at some later time X+Y

There were also some oddities related to the passenger list (funky passports), but that fact isn't connected yet...

There, I think I've summed up all 73 pages.

[mixture]

To prevent the use of mobiles already aboard held by crew and passengers, a couple of mobile phone jammers could have been taken aboard, they are quite effective and some look like wireless access points so could easily be mistaken for a bit of IT kit by airside security.

As has been pointed out already, the pro-mobile brigade are clutching at straws. There could be any number of reasons you could hear a ringback tone on a mobile beyond it just ringing in someone's pocket....

Also, its the 21st century.... its 300 tonnes of aircraft that the whole world is looking for. Even assuming there were jammers galore and the passengers were bound and gagged.... many people outside of that aircraft would have (a) seen it on its way to land (b) seen it on the tarmac. All viable airfields have no doubt been already checked through satellite imagery and local reports. If it landed in once piece, the world would have heard about it by now !

The mobile phone ideas simply have no legs and are simply nothing more than optimistic and hopeful thinking on the part of the unfortunate bereaved families (for whom I have every sympathy and send condolences).

[Old Boeing Driver]

Good post.

I have been suspicious since the Malaysians first mentioned their radar showed the plane turned back.

2 things.

If they saw it turn back, did they lose radar contact at that time? At least they would have had a heading to use.

Next, if THEY saw it turn back, did anyone else, and how long did they track it.

Notice that their statement about turning back has not been mentioned again in any briefings.

Are they withholding info?

[Nialler]

A question from a SFL to you pilots out there:

Is it a regular occurrence that checked-in passengers don't board?

I'm sure that it i something you would notice. Does it happen often?

I'm ot asking in the sense of building on top of the multiple conspiracy theories that are already proliferating out there at the moment; just trying to establish something which can only be an anecdotal point of reference.

[joy ride]

Nasty secrets? Someone referred to this a day or two ago:

Lap joints focus of new Boeing 777 directive: FAA - 7/20/2012 - Flight Global (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lap-joints-focus-of-new-boeing-777-directive-faa-374597/)

[overthewing]

So, we don't know yet when the last ACARS transmission was received? And how this correlates with the last transponder contact? Or the last 'ET calling home' message from the engines?

Presumably the Malaysian authorities must have access to all relevant information. If all sources of communication stopped at about the same time, the most likely reason is that the aircraft is in the sea near the last known transponder position. If not, it suggests that something odd was going on.

Is this why they're searching to the west of the Malaysian peninsula? Because they have reason to think the plane was still active after the transponder stopped?

[glendalegoon]

IF anyone has the answers to the following questions, I think it might prove interesting.

1. Was the last RADAR contact a primary radar or secondary radar?

2. The media has reported the plane turning, again, see above question.

3. Does anyone have the winds aloft from cruise altitude to sea level, general is fine enough, not specific , just to understand drift if the plane came down in pieces.

[Old Boeing Driver]

Early posts indicated there was only secondary radar at the point of last contact.

I think there were some upper level wind reports in some posts. I'll see if I can find them.

[glendalegoon]

thanks old boeing driver.

I think they may be looking in the wrong place then. Primary is one thing, secondary, all you have to lose is the transponder antennas or power. then you don't know what is going on.

That 747 in japan that blew the pressure bulkhead flew for almost another half hour before crashing.

Imagine if this 777 flew another half hour beyond the last secondary contact.

[Pom Pax]

People have insinuated that the Malaysian authorities are withholding information. Could it be the opposite? That they don't have information which they should have. Face is important, patronage secures promotion not merit, graft pays the wages. Such is life in all of South East Asia.

[eprn1n2]

Couple developments:

Warning of ‘possible terrorist attack on China’ received by Taiwan days before Malaysia Airlines jet vanished (http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1445314/warning-possible-terrorist-attack-china-received-taiwan-days-malaysia)

Separately, on March 3 China Airlines circulated an unrelated "aviation security notice" to all staff, warning of a "significant risk of terrorist attacks and military actions against aviation", a spokeswoman said yesterday.

In a statement, the airline said: "China Airlines on March 4 received a call claiming to provide intelligence on terrorist organisations and which referred to mainland China, saying Beijing airport would see terrorist attacks."

Iranian Bought Tickets For Fake Passport Passengers: Report (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/iranian-bought-tickets-fake-passport-passengers-report-n49016)

The two men flying on stolen passports purchased their tickets on MH370 with cash via a middle man, now identified as Kazem Ali. Incidentally, "Mr. Ali" has gone missing; attempts to contact him by phone have gone unanswered.

[barrel_owl]

Reuters: No automated messages from missing Boeing jet: sources

(Reuters) - The Malaysian passenger jet that disappeared on Saturday did not make automatic contact with a flight data-monitoring system after vanishing from radar screens, two people familiar with the matter said.

The Boeing 777-200ER is equipped with a maintenance computer capable of talking to the ground automatically through short messages known as ACARS.
[..]
In the case of the Malaysia Airlines jet, however, investigators have no such evidence to help them discover what happened to the passenger plane, the people said.

"There were no signals from ACARS from the time the aircraft disappeared," a source involved in the investigations said.
[..]
In addition to standard ACARS messages, airlines can install a system sold by Boeing called Airplane Health Management which provides real-time troubleshooting and allows Boeing to monitor the flight as well as the airline, according to its brochure.

This optional system was not installed on the missing Malaysia Airlines jet, people familiar with the matter said.

U.S. planemaker Boeing declined to comment.

Full article: No automated messages from missing Boeing jet: sources | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/us-malaysia-airlines-idUSBREA291D520140310)

[Chronus]

An important clue is that comms were lost within one hour of departure. The aircraft would have been established enroute at its assigned level within this time frame.
A further fact is that no debris has been sighted so far.
Had the flight crossed the FIR and handed over to the Vietnamese or Chinese, we are not informed. All we know is some garbled information of an attempt to relay by the Vietnamese.
The abscence of floating debris would reduce the likelihood of a catastrophic inflight breakup. It is inconceivable that a large aircraft such as the 777 disintegrating at high altitude would not shed some light weight debris which would remain afloat.
The facts known to date would appear to suggest that the aircaft ditched in the sea in a fairly intact state.

[hamster3null]

I too believe that plane, wherever it went down, it was intact like AF447, that it took 5 days to find a piece. And that first piece was the tail that in A330 is composite floating material.


It did not take 5 days to find a piece of AF447. An oil slick and some pieces, e.g. a seat(?), were spotted from the air within 2 days. It took 5 days simply to get some ships to the area where it went down.

[overthewing]

Do I remember correctly that initial reporting said the aircraft dropped 700ft just before 'disappearing'?

[Tu.114]

I have just looked at the NTSB report on TWA800 (http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/2000/AAR0003.pdf).

On page 91, it shows a synopsis of primary radar returns just after the breakup; the cloud of debris is clearly visible.

The report (http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/2002/AAB0201.pdf) on EgyptAir 990 that hit the sea in one piece shows on page 36 that also for this flight, primary returns were available nearly until the impact.

So in either case, the primary radar tapes are badly needed. However, an inflight breakup is made less likely by the lack of any observations: an explosion would be well audible and a cloud of debris rather visible to anyone in the area (probably mostly seafarers). And an impact in one piece would have needed to show on at least one seismograph, which it apparently did not (or at least the corresponding spike is not yet found).

I am not yet convinced that this aircraft has crashed.

[glenbrook]

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) issues passport standards which are treated as recommendations to national governments. The size of passports normally comply with ISO/IEC 7810 ID-3 standard, which specifies a size of 125 × 88 mm (4.921 × 3.465 in). This size is the B7 format.

Machine-readable passport standards have been issued by the ICAO, with an area set aside where most of the information written as text is also printed in a manner suitable for optical character recognition.

Biometric passports (or e-Passports) have an embedded contactless smart card chip in order to conform to ICAO standards. The chips contain data about the passport holder, a photograph in digital format and data about the passport itself.

The trouble with biometric passports is that all you need is someone who looks more or less like you. As the poster said, at airline ticket desks and exit points on immigration passports are not checked as carefully as entry points. Fake passports aren't usually needed to blow up or hijack a plane. Regular passports work well enough, unless the holder is on a no-fly list.
And, if you did need a fake passport, choosing a recently stolen one would seem a better choice.

[alanda]

...Azharuddin [Malaysian civil aviation chief] said the search includes northern parts of the Malacca Strait, on the opposite side of the Malay Peninsula and far west of the plane's last known location. Azharuddin would not explain why crews were searching there, saying, "There are some things that I can tell you and some things that I can't."...

See How can jet disappear? In the ocean, it's not hard (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/how-can-jet-disappear-ocean-its-not-hard)

[mickjoebill]

gyptair 990, intact, went straight in 60 NM off Nantucket. Very little debris on the surface. Small oil sheen on the surface when the first Coast Guard ship arrived near the position where transponder contact was lost. Depth at the site was 250-270 feet.


According to google, due to weak currents and significant volcanic activity much of the area has muddy sediment on that forms a layer up to 40 meters deep on the sea floor in some places.

Apparently the water depth in Malacca straights rarely exceeds 30 meters.
At 500 mph a distance of 30 meters is travelled in less than 0.2 of a second so would an airframe be stopped by this depth of water or would it also impact the seabed?

We have seen "holes in the ground" the result of near vertical high speed impacts. Imagine the same hole in the ground but under 30 meters of water and subsequently enveloped by 20 meters of mud.

Below is the impact crater from Flight 93, a 757 -222. The Black box was found at 7 meters feet and they excavated to 14 meters to remove all debris. So if the black box was in the tail and the deepest any wreckage was found was 15 feet deeper, the aircraft was compacted and encased in just 15 ft depth of soil.

Whilst it seems far fetched, does the physics add up?… a similar, near vertical impact to Egypt 990, but into 20 meters of water, then transitioning into soft mud that envelopes the wreckage?


http://www.dvorak.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/flight-93-crash-site.jpg

[Nialler]

@ TU14 and others, thanks for your replies.

I was of the impression that it wasn't unusual for PAX not to board and that it isn't something that is necessarily sinister.

I can also imagine that it is a PITA for all concerned, not just the ground staff, but also a pilot trying to make a take-off slot - along with us SLF, who get to seethe ground staff unloading luggage.

[GlobalNav]

"The United States extensively reviewed imagery taken by American spy satellites for evidence of a mid-air explosion, but saw none, a U.S. government source said. The source described U.S. satellite coverage of the region as thorough."

[Ian W]

IF anyone has the answers to the following questions, I think it might prove interesting.

1. Was the last RADAR contact a primary radar or secondary radar?

2. The media has reported the plane turning, again, see above question.

3. Does anyone have the winds aloft from cruise altitude to sea level, general is fine enough, not specific , just to understand drift if the plane came down in pieces.

It is extremely unlikely that anyone in ATC was monitoring anything but 'cooperative surveillance' almost certainly secondary radar. This gives a lot of information that can be used to build a labelled display. There is almost no use for primary radar in current ATC. The lesson from United Flight 93 was switch off the secondary radar (stop squawk) in a secondary only area and your aircraft is lost to the ATC system. What that system _might_ do is 'coast' the response along the expected flight plan track, so controllers may not be aware of when the real transponded responses stopped. Because the transponders are actively sending a response the range of SSR can be more than PSR so the aircraft may not even be in PSR contact. FANS ADS-C (contract reports over SATCOM) would be better as the EPP reports give a lot of FMC information but the bean counters keep these reports down to only one every 10 minutes or so.

Air defense notification systems spotting an unplanned aircraft requires the aircraft to appear on the radar _and_ for someone to be awake and observant enough to notice it. As there have been no Vietnamese air attacks on Malaysia (and vice versa) in the last decades alertness may not be at its best in the early hours. Yes the aircraft response may be found by going back over recordings - now will the loss of face be worth admitting it was missed? Looking at the radar coverage map a few posts back there are gaps that could easily be used should someone want to cross back into Malaysia (although _why_ that would be needs to be answered). There may be similar gaps over Vietnam.

Now I know that crews don't like the idea of FOQA data to the cloud or CVR/CVideoR to the cloud. But had that been the case herre there would be relatives of 200+ people who would at least have known what had happened. Also as someone who spends much time as SLF I would like to know if there was a weakness on the aircraft that currently fly thousands of people daily. It is perfectly technically feasible now with high bandwidths available on both INMARSAT and soon on 'Iridium Next' and those links would keep your EFBs up-to-date as well. Not wanting people watching over you does not cut it any more - controllers have continual watch over them with open mic recordings - even overnight staff at gas stations have it. With aircraft flying routes more over wide expanses of ocean is it acceptable that they can go missing and require huge search efforts to be made? Perhaps if the cost of multinational search and rescue was charged to the airlines things might be different.

[Super VC-10]

If the aircraft had ditched and passengers were on the slides as liferafts, wouldn't said slides have ELTs built in? We are not looking at a controlled ditching here.

[Wire_Mark]

I work as a radio optimiser for a well known multi national company in the uk. The use of jammers is common and work very well. I don't want to single out a race about this but we find that these are normally installed within mosques to stop the use of them within the vicinity.

Also we've seen in prisons but I digress.

Generally though they are band specific and not wideband. Therefore they would disrupt a gsm 900 signal but not a WCDMA 2100. For one to be on board a plane and block all frequencies for gsm, WCDMA and LTE it would be wideband unless multiple units were on board. Back to the ecr cells, we have them in the uk, or did do at t-mobile in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland. I am surprised they are not deployed in the US.

[wiggy]

Super....

As a FWIW on our configuration, and I believe most others, the slide rafts do not have built in ELTs....

[MPN11]

Having read all this from the outset, I'm becoming more persuaded by the concept of mass hypoxia ...

But what I can't quite grasp is:

How (me not being a 777 driver) the last settings on the a/p don't sustain flight in that direction until fuel exhaustion. (= search offshore near Ho Chi Min city?)
Why an initial track of 040-ish suddenly generates search activity on the west of the Malay peninsula. (= someone suspects something more than just that implied left turn at 'lost contact')

[NigelOnDraft]

Now I know that crews don't like the idea of FOQA data to the cloud or CVR/CVideoR to the cloud. But had that been the case here there would be relatives of 200+ people who would at least have known what had happenedI beg to disagree, but the upload system would surely have stopped at the same time as ADS-B / Transponder / ACARS etc.?

It depends on the nature of the failure of course, and/or how things were disabled. But I seriously airlines / passengers will want to pay the costs involved in such a system... and if it is installed for safety reasons, do you as SLF want all the delays / diversions associated with "our FDR system won't login to the satellite, so we cannot depart / must divert" :rolleyes:

NoD

[hamster3null]

Just an humble question to the 777 Skippers outthere, wich i would love to have an idea please:

Taking in account the possible scenario of an uncapacitated cockpit crew, taken by illegal interference/hijack, turning off the transponder and descending trough lets say 500 or even 1000 ft AMSL, and having in mind the endurance reported around that time was about +7 hours approx., how far the 777 could have gone in miles (aprox), like for instance a middle place in Indian Ocean or even Pacific at that lower altitude (burning more JetA), and another question...is it hard or too much complex to maintain for an non-rated 777 guy keeping the T7 a lot of hours at this 1000ft or so, specially towards East Indian Ocean (following the night/dusk planet zone) or it may be difficult?
Tanx and all the best for the SAR teams.

It's been asked before and a figure of 2000 NM was suggested.

It's unclear why you'd want to fly at 1000 ft AMSL. Without the transponder and with primary radar coverage as spotty as it apparently is, hijackers could have crossed into the Indian Ocean at FL350 without ever appearing on any radars.

Based on what we know, if it was indeed hijacked, it could have reached North Korea, any point in Indonesia, most islands in the Indian Ocean. East coast of Africa would be pushing it, but, if there was in fact enough fuel onboard for 7.5 hours at 490 KTAS, with favorable winds it could reach Yemen or Somalia. (Though it would be a gamble for hijackers if this were their desired destination, they'd have to know exactly how much reserve fuel there was onboard.)

You only need a 4500 foot runway to land a 777-200 without fuel at sea level in dry weather. There are probably dozens of poorly known or unknown runways in this range that would accept a 777 (though taking off again would be a completely different story). As a random example, there is an airport in eastern Somalia with ICAO code HCMG that is potentially within range, has a 5250 ft runway, and, as far as I can tell, sees no scheduled traffic. With minimal organization, a few determined individuals could land MH370 there, herd the passengers into trucks, torch the plane and disappear into the wind long before anyone starts asking questions.

[jmmilner]

Given the global lack of trust in governments, the press, and other humans, I'm not sure this will answer everybody's questions as to who is doing what and where but try:

BBC News - Malaysia Airlines: How is the search being carried out? (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26514556)

They provide a map of the search areas which include the South China Sea, the north half of the Malacca Strait, and central Malaysia (yes, land). Three P3s (2 Australian, 1 US Navy), multiple C-130s and assorted other maritime surveillance aircraft, helicopters, both land and sea based from 14 countries are involved, with more coming. Ships are being deployed but the bulk of the search patterns are being flown.

[LASJayhawk]

What if you has a hull breach at 35K at a location that took out some if not all of the avionics, and you're half way between land masses?

Wouldn't you try to get low into breathable air ASAP? It's not like you would have time to go back and check on the passengers. So now your low (below primary radar) what next? Would you head on to an airport that you have never been to before and might not have the charts, or turn for home and a field you have been to 100's of times? Somewhere you felt you could land blindfolded, since you pretty much are.

I'll bet they tried for home and the familiar airport, distances being equal.

Think I agree with the looking in the wrong place crew.

[Yancey Slide]

I just wiki'd JAL 123 and it says they flew for 32 minutes after the pressure dome blew.

And KAL007 flew for over 10 minutes and got out a radio call after getting hit by two missiles.

[Yancey Slide]

Wouldn't you try to get low into breathable air ASAP?

Descend and maintain 10,000 would be well above minimum radar altitude I think.

[WilyB]

Bono,

the aircraft crash landed not in the water but in dense jungle some where close to water. Phones ring because while passengers might not be alive however some phones survived.

There would have been a huge fire and a lot of smoke.

Also phones are supposed to be 'off' so the chances of one cell phone being 'on' and surviving the crash are very low. Chances of dozens of them surviving are probably infinitesimal, to say the least.

[Mr Optimistic]

If true, seems a bit coincidental if comms were lost just as cruise was reached. When would the seatbelt signs have come off and people started to move around the cabin?

[despegue]

Regarding a possible successful ditching: the street of Malacca is the World's most dense shipping lane. Any raft/slide or ditching would have been seen almost instantly.

The area where the secondary radar image disappeared is also very dense with fishing boats.

In order to reach Somalia as someone has mentioned, you would have had to stay at altitude and this scenario sounds more Clive Cussler material than reality, however not impossible.

[MPN11]

If true, seems a bit coincidental if comms were lost just as cruise was reached. When would the seatbelt signs have come off and people started to move around the cabin?
Around 5,000 ft or so. You don't fly much, I guess? :rolleyes:

[despegue]

NEVER at 5000' or so. Do not try to belittle people when you have no clue yourself. This is a website for Professional Aircrew.
In quite a few companies, seatbelt signs are only put off when cruising altitude is reached, sometimes after up to 30 minutes.

[Tri-To-Start]

Fact#3: Cell Phones still "ring" according to relatives

That means nothing!!

If you call a cell phone that's been destroyed or out of service you'll still hear a ring from your end.

[bono]

As I mentioned, this conclusion reflects what is *publicly* known at present. Later information could (most likely) change this conclusion.


Cell phones are only off during takeoff, people use them during flight for all kinds of activities (except calling off course).


Fire is highly likely in a crash into jungle but if sufficient attention has not been paid to remote areas, it could easily escape focus of scrutiny.

[WilyB]

Chronus,

what do you make of the claims by the relatives of some nineteen passengers who have called their respective family members on the flight to hear ringing tones before their calls were cut off.

I call overseas cell phones often and this happens to me many times a year. I redial and this time the person I called pick up and confirm his cell was in his hands and never rang/vibrated. Cell phone technology is still far from perfect.

Bono,

Cell phones are only off during takeoff, people use them during flight for all kinds of activities (except calling off course).

They can only be turned 'on' in airplane mode, meaning their radio is switched off. For the network, that phone is off the grid.

[opsmarco]

"If true, seems a bit coincidental if comms were lost just as cruise was reached. When would the seatbelt signs have come off and people started to move around the cabin?"

Depends on the airline's SOPs : I've seen it 10'000ft, at cruise altitude, and I suppose there are many variations. Maybe someone from MH or who recently flew with MH may provide a better answer.

[porterhouse]

the aircraft experienced massive electrical/equipment failure
In terms of probabilities I would say pilot's suicide is more probable than a "massive electrical" failure on something like 777 which is full of redundancies specially in terms of electricity.

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

Around 5,000 ft or so. You don't fly much, I guess? :rolleyes:

10,000 feet is sometimes more typical (a) to have climbed well out of the local terminal manoevering area's arrival and departure routes, (b) to avoid turbulent low cloud if any, (c) to coincide with the 10,000 foot checklist items like landing lights off, end of <250 kt speed limit. I'm a pilot but not 777 so others may know differently.

[Roadster280]

I now see why the pilots and aircraft engineers get uppity when people post garbage about their area of expertise.

Tri-To-Start

If you call a cell phone that's been destroyed or out of service you'll still hear a ring from your end.


If the phone is detached from the network, as recorded by the Home Location Register (or its successors, for the pedantic), the caller will not hear ringing. They will either get a message to say the phone is out of service, and/or redirected to voicemail.

If the phone is in service so far as the network is concerned, it will be paged in the last known group of cells ("Location Area"). If Colour Ring Back Tones are subscribed to, then you'll hear music while the phone is paged. If not, you will probably not hear anything until the phone responds to the page. It will then ring, and the caller will also get a ring tone.

[jmmilner]

I would assume this sort of technology requires line of site (or whatever it is called underwater). I am guessing that the previous incident you are talking of happened in the Atlantic? Where it is thought this aircraft went down is almost surrounded by land, I do not know how the sound wave would get around these masses. Sound propagation in the oceans is a complex process. If you want the details along with some math to back that up, there was a thesis link a few hundred posts back. The short of it is that the ocean's surface and bottom both reflect sound waves in a complex manner, resulting in channeling of the acoustic energy in what amount to a wave guide. Further complications include wave bending due to differences in water temperture and salinity. Signal loss in the channels is inversely proportional to distance, not the square of the distance as in line of sight, so signals can and do travel very long distances.

The hydrophone networks (e.g. the USN's SOSUS) were initially placed at choke points like the GIUK Gap to detect transit of Soviet submarines but proved able to track submarines as far away as the US continental shelf and low-flying Soviet patrol aircraft, all back in the 1960s. The capabilities of current systems are not publically available but I'd assume that the massive improvements in sensors, underwater cables, and computing power have produced near-realtime knowledge that might be applicable to the current search. The problem is that providing such data provides a lower bound on what the system is capable of.

The issue of propagation in shallow water interacting with surrounding land masses is complex but of critical interest to both civilian and military sectors due to the hunt for natural resources and the focus on littorial warfare. Lack of public disclosure for the supporting evidence behind the current search areas is hardly surprising.

[barrel_owl]

@HeathrowAirport
Just settled into the initial cruise attitude is also a likely time the cockpit door opens for many reasons, such as refreshments, dinner order taking and toilet rest etc

If someone says this is not a possibility, then you clearly are a wannabe.
MAS370 reached 35,000 feet (which I assume was its TOC that day) at 17:01 UTC, well 20 minutes before the last blip reported by FR24 (17:21 UTC).

I assume that 35,000 feet was TOC for that flight because the altitude did not change for 20 minutes. However, having tracked the same flight on FR24 the day after and yesterday, I noticed that TOC was 37,000 feet.

I guess only the airline may provide further information about this.

[MichaelKPIT]

I don't think we can put too much credence on the cellphone stories. I believe the process goes something like this: When you physically turn off your cellphone part of the shut down sequence is that it tells your carrier "I am no longer here - send all calls to voicemail. Goodbye." On the other hand if you simply go out of range the carrier will spend a few seconds trying to find you, and while it's doing that it plays the ringing signal to the caller. If it can't find you it then diverts to voicemail.

I can't state for a fact that's the way it works, but empirical data would lead me to believe it to be accurate. My wife is cabin crew on a major airline in the US and there have been occasions when she has accidentally left her cellphone on during take off. Naturally she turns it off if she remembers, but on those occasions, despite the phone being off when she lands, it rings 2 or 3 times before switching to VM. Conversely when it's turned off while still in range the call goes straight to VM regardless of where in the country she is, until she turns it on again.

I can also confirm that, in the US at least, the seat belt sign and the portable electronic devices sign remain on below 10,000.

[Jetstream67]

There are several nations keen to lend humanitarian assistance. Also unless the Chinese are getting more facts than we are on the fate of their citizens they are going to lose patience with the reports and results so far very soon

[Jetstream67]

For the last time the Mobile operators have a LOT more data on phone location and switch-off vs. out of range etc. than can be inferred from customer observed behaviour.


Whoever the mobile operator is has either not been contacted (!) or the results are being withheld for some reason (e.g. customer or phone not actually on the flight)

[wombat13]

Can we please stop referring to "facts".

99.9% of us are getting our "facts" from the media. This is the same media that was still reporting a 777 door spotted in the SCS 12 hours after commercial pilots & engineers on this very forum (and others), were pointing out that no such door of the "type" shown could have come from a 777. We are now told by the same media that this never was a door.....

What is most distressing is that the media need to supply "copy" - or they get sacked. Idiots on this forum, who know no more about aviation than my dog, then "dissect" it, offering up their views.

Guess where the media come looking for some insight to what is going on, eagerly ready to provide more copy? This and other forums, hence the deeply flawed process is perpetuated.

There is one undeniable fact at the moment surround MH370. It is missing.

[bwohlgemuth]

Telecom guy here...if they had ANY cell signal, it would be easy to triangulate which tower was lit up. That's a five minute job to figure out.

My guess is, the phone never un-registered from the network hence why its ringing.

[Roadster280]

The "ringing" sound, so many rings etc is a complete red herring.

What the caller hears and what the phone does are two very separate things. When a call is sent to voicemail, the signaling message from the voicemail system that acknowledges the call causes the ring tone to be played. Once the VM system has allocated the resources to answer the call, it sends the answer message, and the call sequence continues. Most of the time, the call is acknowledged and answered simultaneously, hence no "ring" before the VM system answers. Sometimes, it doesn't. So you hear a short ring before it answers.

The handset itself does not generate a ringing tone that is heard by the caller. Network equipment does this, usually the main switch (MSC).

As has been said, this is a vein of information that the authorities will have been looking into. Whether they wish to share their findings is another matter.

[Siyouma]

It's been sunrise in Vietnam for about half an hour now. I strongly suspect they'll find the crash site in the next couple of hours looking at the Aviation Herald reports....

"Vietnam's Headquarters for the Search and Rescue operation of MH-370 confirmed receiving the report by Hong Kong's Air Traffic Control Center stating that a Hong Kong based airliner reported a large field of debris while enroute on airway L642. A Thai cargo ship in the area was asked for assistance and has set course to the area but did not find anything unusual so far. A second vessel asked for assistance did find some debris. Following this finding Vietnam's Maritime Search and Rescue Services (MRCC) dispatched a ship to the debris field.

Hong Kong's Civil Aviation Department confirmed a Cathay Pacific flight from Hong Kong to Kuala Lumpur spotted large amount of debris while enroute off the coast of South East Vietnam."

The question is, how did it end so far away from it's last reported position without any contact? A bomb would have scattered debris all over the place far further back towards Malaysia no? Either a technical problem so severe it took out all communications or a hijacking/pilot suicide look most likely but suspect someone would have raised the alarm if a hijacking. After all, if it is in this crash site then they were only 50 miles from the Vietnamese coast (probably in range for mobile signal?).

Cause is still a long way off knowing but does look odds on it's around that area 80NM SE of HCMC.

[Mr Optimistic]

At that local time there is no reason to think any military radar will have been operating with vigilance in that part of the world ( let alone recording track formations)

[Jetstream67]

Mr Optimistic


Yet we are told that primary radar saw a turn back . .
Who uses primary radar ?
Operator has very good memory ?

[Mr Optimistic]

The search strategy and results to date may indicate the quality of the information they have!

[Old Boeing Driver]

It wasn't primary radar. It was secondary radar. makes a big difference on a primary only target. (transponder off)

[gulfairs]

The only thing that could cut off all communications and all electrical power, followed by silence could only be some form of catastrophic structural failure.
That aircraft had damage history, a collision with a 747 while taxiing.
It could have placed un accountable stress on the starboard wing root fittings, that decided to give up while in cruise. due to some CAT how ever light or severe as the case may be.
If the airframe went into a structural failure dive towards terra firma or water the crew would be a little more than a tad busy during the horrific descent, and would not have been able to send a radio message or mayday.:(

[Jetstream67]

Old Boeing Driver


You may be right . but


Fox news reported
"Earlier, Malaysia’s air force chief told reporters that military radar indicated that the plane may have turned from its flight route before losing contact.
Rodzali Daud didn't say which direction the plane might have taken when it apparently went off route.
"We are trying to make sense of this," he told a media conference. "The military radar indicated that the aircraft may have made a turn back and in some parts, this was corroborated by civilian radar."


Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 mystery: Jet's door may have been found, officials say | Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/09/malaysia-airlines-loses-contact-with-plane-carrying-23-people/)

[glendalegoon]

thanks OLD BOEING DRIVER. it should be obvious to anyone that primary radar will tell the story if there was primary radar contact. someone asked who uses primary radar? everyone, but usually the secondary is selected. I imagine if the radar OVER THERE is even as good as our radar was 20 years ago there should be some record somewhere that can be viewed over and over.

and it should be.

IF anyone can ask the question of someone in authority, that would be great, speculation by others is not answering the question.

DOES anyone remember when stephen fossett was lost? He the man who flew the balloon on long flights? He was in a decathalon and took off from the area near a small nevada town. HIS plane was searched for and not found until someone found his driver's license. IT TOOK almost 12 months or so. And it was on the ground not the sea.

Earhart's plane is still missing from 1937!

[GQ2]

The last radar position was already off-track - but does tie-in well with track to the position of the second debris field of HCMC..... If that info' is kosher.

[NG1]

Only guessing... having the map showing the two red dotted squares in mind the last known heading might have been in an westerly direction, otherwise they would not search in that area west of the peninsula.

Not a fact, but - from my point of view - a clear indication that somebody was able to follow the flightpath longer as we could via fr24.

[orfeas]

On BBC News now as well:

Vietnam probes possible debris from missing Malaysia plane
BBC News - Vietnam probes possible debris from missing Malaysia plane (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26506961)

[Lonewolf_50]

The only thing that could cut off all communications and all electrical power, followed by silence could only be some form of catastrophic structural failure.
Only that? The only thing? Your certainty lacks supporting evidence at this point in time.
That aircraft had damage history, a collision with a 747 while taxiing.
Repaired.
It could have placed un accountable stress on the starboard
wing root fittings, that decided to give up while in cruise. due to some CAT how ever light or severe as the case may be. If the airframe went into a structural failure dive towards terra firma or water the crew would be a little more than a tad busy during the horrific descent, and would not have been able to send a radio message or mayday.:(
You go from the "only thing" to some probables ... if ... could have.

Verdict: There is not enough info, nor sufficient weight to your analysis, to support your confidence in that being the only thing that could lead to this flight going missing, or crashing.

Why do I say this? While a 777 is not an A330, a crew without any structural failure managed to hit the ocean in AF 447.

The Adam Air flight previously referred to seems to have hit the ocean without a structural failure initiating the problem, though the after action report indicates that they flew it into structural failure. :eek:

In the case of this crew and this flight, what is unknown far exceeds what is known.

[Ida down]

That area they are searching must be like Harrods on Xmas Eve by now, they only have to see a floating cup, and they get excited, and the ATC must be thinking they are at Oshkosh. If they don't find anything today, it has to be back to the drawing board. So lets hope for a result.

[Yankee Whisky]

I think many times before has been stated that we must deal with facts and keep our thoughts as what could have happened to ourselves.


If news releases by reporters on the spot release information, this should be recorded in this spread; after all they are in touch with those who are directly involved in the investigation.


Speculation is very misleading and, dare I say, sensationalising !