Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[oldoberon]

glendalegoon

I THINK I heard the minister in a Malaysian press conference say that all the cabin crew were in a union, but not the pilots. Only just audible, and a rapidly swallowed aside.

Incidentally, I wish they had a radio mike to pass to questioners, or the chair would précis questions to the microphone. So annoying, and gives such a bad impression, to hear, again and again, the answer but not the question.

your recollection is correct.

Not only a radio mike, would he stand where he does when he is making his speech, his voice goes so quiet when answering questions, 1/2 the time all you can hear is cameras firing away.

[fg32]

KLN94
How can we access the Tomnod images of the area which may have been taken soon after the accident?
You can't, it seems, directly. They obscure it on purpose to prevent people picking and choosing and leaving coverage gaps. Maybe also to make clients pay who must choose.
There is a way to find where a map is, once you are looking at it.
This was posted here by some smart person whose name I have forgotten, sorry:

Load a map at Tomnod

Change the word "challenge" in the url to "api". This brings up a page with the latitude & longitude on it which you can then google. You can then decide whether to search this area or select "Jump to random map" and start the process again
Incidentally, before anyone sneers at Tomnod, it is run by the very same Digital Globe company that supplied the images which are so central to the current Aussie search.
For all we know these very images were found by the crowd ! Probably not, though, the finder would be shrieking, and the publicity would be good for Tomnod, not just Digital Globe.

[slats11]

Someone asked why focused search near extreme end of the arc. I would say because this location fits with two hypotheses. 1. A deliberate plan to make the plane as hard to find as possible 2. Some mechanical problem and then the plane flew with autopilot until fuel exhausted (seems unlikely to me, but the location they are searching is consistent with this hypothesis).. Anywhere short of this location is arbitrary. It is also possible the pings were detected by a 2nd satellite, which would considerably narrow down the arcs.

We have been told that primary radar tracked something in the middle of the night. This was without any advance notice ie they did not really know what was happening. By the time if the last ping, it was morning and they knew they had a big problem. Every primary radar would have been looking hard. Surely this is the reason the central part of the arc was discounted. Could possibly be because the Pacific satellite didn't see the pings, but as Ana explained there are other reasons why pacific may not have seen. Indian seeing is more reliable than pacific not seeing. So I suspect more likely this area was discounted because they had lots of primary radar looking by time of last ping.

Still don't buy the theft theory. Too many variables, need other people involved, and probably couldn't set it up by the time you knew you had valuable cargo.

The only explanation making sense is that of someone who wanted to die, but wanted to disappear and for the world to never know where or why or how. Internally this individual was very rational - could not have managed this if irrational. But incomprehensible to others. There have been plenty of these throughout history.

[iainp]

Assuming the fuel ran out and it crashed into the sea from high altitude, would a bit of aircraft 24m long really survive the crash intact?

[costalpilot]

So, Greta, (fox news) is now going to explore the possibility that MH 370 could have made a successful water landing in the southern Indian ocean,
just like Sully did in the Hudson.

right Greta, why not fly 7 hours to the open ocean to attempt yr tricky water landing. Lucky for us. She has a NTSB expert who doesnt expect that theory would occupy much of the sar peoples time.

greta points out the the cvr "keeps looping every two hours" so, she figers, we arent going to get much......apparently greta expects all we will hear off it is, glug, glug, glug...

thankfully after this " breaking news" analysis, greta is moving on to a discussion of the olympic ice dance team: putin and obama.

[parabellum]

Regarding radar coverage, either military or civil, you can bet your bottom dollar that Singapore would have information that they would not make public, ever.


SLFplatine asked about FDR/CVR being ejectable, yes of course they can and Martin Baker, if asked would be happy to produce a unit that under pre set conditions would eject from the aircraft and float. Now the problems, it would have to be a removable self contained unit as regulatory authorities would require a function test now and then, so spare units would be needed and a test rig would be needed, (possibly run by MB), the zeros behind the $ sign just get longer! A unit located in the horizontal stabilizer, designed to eject at an angle, so avoiding fouling the sinking wreckage, which may, by now, be inverted, should suffice, these days many of the electronic boxes are connected via multi pin bayonet type connectors and secured by conventional means to prevent the unit vibrating or being shaken out, back to Martin Baker who specialise in perfecting systems where conventional securing can be breached when required.


Short answer, yes, an ejectable and floating CVR/FDR is quite feasible.

[NeoFit]

It seems necessary to specify:
one of the ULB (FDR) was not found (dolphin/shark/ E.T /other).
The second one (recovered) was out of duty.
BEA declared the CVR ULB (S/N ST24703) " was thus considered as not functional ". [cvr.ulb.examination.report (http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol.af.447/cvr.ulb.examination.report.pdf)]

[mmurray]

Here. (http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/210232014_MediaRelease_PlannedAircraftDepartureTimes.pdf)

This lists the planned search aircraft departure times.

[Airbubba]

This lists the planned search aircraft departure times.

Any idea who the civil Gulfstream just launched to the search area would be?

[GarageYears]

Flash memory wears out with use, just as you said. Use being read/write cycles. In the case of a 120GB drive being used as described above a read/write cycle is only going to happen once every 2000 hours. Combine this with the fact that "Most commercially available flash products are guaranteed to withstand around 100,000 P/E cycles before the wear begins to deteriorate the integrity of the storage". Once again doing the math 2000 hours per cycle by 100,000 cycles is about a 200 million hour lifespan of continuous use. 24 hours/day, 365 days per year...so that is somewhere north of 22 thousand years! Yes, this is all very nice and all that but you must meet the following:

Number of channels ................. 4
Impact tolerance ...................... 3400 Gs /6.5ms
Fire resistance .......................... 1100 deg C /30 min
Water pressure resistance ........ submerged 20,000 ft <<< 8900 psi

That's just the executive summary.

[Memetic]

Markdem.

CVR do use SSD e.g. (Aircraft Data Recorders | Rugged Solid State Drives | CWC-AE (http://www.cwc-ae.com/product/solid-state-drives)) selcted as it was one of the first results on Google.

However, beware when lookiing at the data you have for that SSD you use for logging. There is a difference between MTBF and drive endurance. SSD are only guarenteed to be written to a certian number of times. Enterprise grade drives are typically specified to endure 5 years of being written to a certain number of times per day. So you buy different endurance levels for different applications.

It is also not as simple as assuming because you can have 100k programme / erase cycles you can expect to write to the entire avaliable memory 100k times, short verison, you cannot write to individual memory cells, you have to write in blocks of cells, so even changing one wears many cells (Write amplification (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Write_amplification)) of course there are clever flash memory management algorithms in the SSD controller working to reduce these effects and extend life.

[Evey_Hammond]

I posted the original instructions and had that problem too until I worked out why. I'll wager that the reason why you're ending up over mainland China is because you've missed out the comma separating the 2 co-ordinates or left an erroneous character in. To get the correct location the co-ords should be 4.607861, 90.746107.
Hope that helps ;)

[VH-XXX]

Any idea who the civil Gulfstream just launched to the search area would be?

This wouldn't be the first time that a privately owned aircraft has joined the search in Australia.

Abby Sunderland and Tony Bullimore are examples of this.

There are some very generous businessmen in Australia and they would likely not charge for their services as they have not charged in the past.

[Markdem]

Yes, this is all very nice and all that but you must meet the following:

Number of channels ................. 4
Impact tolerance ...................... 3400 Gs /6.5ms
Fire resistance .......................... 1100 deg C /30 min
Water pressure resistance ........ submerged 20,000 ft

That's just the executive summary.

The first item is software - not related to storage device (except for recording length)
Item 3 and 4 have to do with the CVR\FDR it self, not the storage device. (I have never seen a PCB that can withstand anywhere near 1100C).

Item 2 - Honest question. Why would you need to withstand acceleration\deceleration for 6.5ms? Besides, proper shock absorption will take care of it anyway. How do you think they do it now?

[Neogen]

Day 4 search area is narrower than day 3.

http://i.imgur.com/h4L9ram.png

[MountainBear]

In theory you can get data off a hard disk that has been overwritten. You can see the faint traces of the magnetic fields from the previous data writes and try to deduce information from tat.

In this case though someone says the CVR is solid-state so different technology.

SSDs are actually easier to recover erased data from than magnetic based drives, a little appreciated truth. However, because of the way that consumer SSDs are designed this recovered data tends to be less contiguous making it more difficult to extract coherent information. Overall, I wouldn't be optimistic but if they pass the CVR along to the NSA I wouldn't be entirely pessimistic about their chances either. I'm sure they would find it a nice challenge.

[rigbyrigz]

Evey: "I posted the original instructions and had that problem too until I worked out why. I'll wager that the reason why you're ending up over mainland China is because you've missed out the comma separating the 2 co-ordinates or left an erroneous character in. To get the correct location the co-ords should be 4.607861, 90.746107.
Hope that helps"

Thank you Evey for providing this useful API info to me and many others!

Turned out the problem is NOT the punctuation (takes the comma, or ignores it) but if you Google the Lat + Long, you get China, if you Google-MAP it, you get the ocean off Indonesia. Google is a bit quirky here if you don't specifically choose MAP function there. Cheers.

[Vinnie Boombatz]

The Japan Coast Guard has been flying a Gulfstream:

Sailors looking out windows trump technology in jetliner search | Malaysia | The Malay Mail Online (http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/sailors-looking-out-windows-trump-technology-in-jetliner-search)

But the press release says civilian.

From a year ago:

Second chance at life comes at a cost - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-22/second-chance-at-life-comes-at-a-cost/4479248)

"Along with the Orion, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority had at various stages of the rescue mission five planes in the air. Two of those were chartered commercial jets - a Bombardier global express and a Gulfstream 550."

[brika]

Neogen's map

The consecutive search areas show a pattern of a large swirl - probably following data of sea currents in that area.

[Airbubba]

The owner of one of Australia's major television networks lives in Perth....he has major business interests in West Australia.
I suspect he would own a private jet...so my money would be on the fact that there is a television crew down the back.
This is the same network that had a cameraman on-board the Australian navy vessel that picked up Tony Bullimore. The cameraman was smart enough to stick a network branded cap on Mr Bullimore's head, just before he went public.

I had the same thoughts that there would be media on board the Gulfstream.

AMSA is doing a great job with its media kits including TV camera ready graphics and hi-res photos. You can see the number one engine loitered on an AP-3C in some of the cockpit shots. Why number one? No generator on that motor.

[BPA]

Looks like a Global Express VH-TGG is on it's way to the search area.

[Alloyboobtube]

The possibilities are still endless , without the Data recorder to see who or what was controlling the A/C and the CVR probably of no use , then sadly the questions will forever remain unanswered.

[Coagie]

awblain:There were rumors that the French submarine Emeraude that went looking for AF447 couldn't really exploit its listening equipment to the full because while it was large, it didn't have much sensitivity at such high frequencies.

Do the Australian navy have ships with suitable big sonar to hand? They seem to Leeuwin-class survey vessel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeuwin_class_survey_vessel) but on the wrong side of the country. Looks like there should be room for some extra stuff onboard if the US has a special 40+ KHz sensitive device. awblain, contact the Australians and get them to deploy this ship to the search area immediately! Use my name if you have to ... Actually, if this ship can paint a picture of the bottom of a 20,000 ft deep ocean, as well as that top of the line "Hummingbird" brand fish finder out of Eufaula, Alabama can paint the picture of the bottom of a typical lake (It's as if the lake is drained. You can see sunken boats and other features in detail), and I'll bet that it can, then they should deploy it. Maybe they haven't mapped that area yet, and they can kill two birds with one stone, by mapping the area, while reviewing the maps as they are scanned for the wreckage. That ship sounds totally bad ass for it's application. Thanks for sharing the info.

[AndyJS]

"The British satellite company, Inmarsat, says it had indications the missing Malaysia airlines flight may have crashed into the Indian Ocean as early as 9 March, two days after the aircraft disappeared."

MH370: Search for missing plane resumes at daybreak - live | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/21/mh370-search-for-missing-plane-resumes-at-daybreak-live)

[brika]

..with a range of 9360 km. Used by private orgs and military. ?18 pax.

[Neogen]

This is where India was searching till 15th March before they suspended the search after analyzing their radar data:

http://i.imgur.com/InSJSw5.jpg

http://indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/MAPs.jpeg

[brika]

..I believe they have another Leeuwin class ship as well -HMAS Melville - may already be in area.

[Porker1]

@ AndyJS

Am still trying to get my head around that quote! "....as early as 2 days after the aircraft disappeared."! What are the journalists drinking? Are they including some bizarre refueling theory that hasn't been shared with us?

[Andu]

but the speed would start to bleed off due to the thrust reduction and control inputs. As the speed bleeds off the A/P will try to hold the altitude and then eventually disconnect.Not on the 777 I flew. If the TAC can handle the asymmetry, (debatable without a bit of help from a friendly foot - the TAC is not designed to do all the work, just to assist, and it gives different percentages of assistance in cruise than on takeoff), once the speed reduces to the lower envelope protection, the aircraft will descend, maintaining that min safe speed, I think at 300fpm, a more than acceptable rate of descent for a ditching.

[AndyJS]

@Porker1

Some more information about the Inmarsat data:

"Malaysia failed to act on satellite data that showed missing flight MH370 flew for another seven hours after it disappeared, it has been revealed.

Inmarsat, a British satellite company, has told the BBC that it knew on March 11 that the plane was likely to be in either the southern Indian Ocean or central Malaysia and not the Malacca Strait or South China Sea.

The company handed the information over to Malaysia on March 12, but then the country apparently failed to act on the data.

Inmarsat has now spoken out over fears that the search has been mishandled because Malaysia did not publicly acknowledge the data until March 15."

Flight MH370: Malaysia 'knew plane flew for another seven hours at least three days before widening the search' - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/flight-mh370-malaysia-knew-plane-3265129)

[brika]

More likely then to undergo a surface breakup as compared to a nose-dive.

[Neogen]

This is the current location of the Norwegian vessel Hoegh St Petersburg:

http://i.imgur.com/aEIPmCW.png

Seems they are close to search area..

[imaynotbeperfect]

Both HMAS Leeuwin and HMAS Melville home port is Cairns which is an awful long way away, even by AUS standards of distance.

[Alloyboobtube]

If it is the aircraft is it possible to salvage the recorders in 20,000ft of water or more.

[atr-drivr]

Senior VP from Immarst says passed data was passed within a couple of days to Malyasia government.....waited for days to act...:confused:
Thanks Andy. Fox just passed same info...

[BPA]

VH-MLE,

VH-TGG IS A Global Express, not a Gulfstream.

It departed YPPH at 0833(WST) for the search area.

[Pace]

If it is the aircraft is it possible to salvage the recorders in 20,000ft of water or more.

Yes there are remote control and manned control devices which can go that deep but unlikely as a bit like finding a needle in a haystack.

[Coagie]

I keep hearing these "expert" commentators on TV, saying they don't know why the 406mhz signal hasn't been detected from at least one of the ELT's, while they are talking about the plane being in the Indian Ocean. It's because 406mhz won't go through water!!! The ELT is for a crash on land. Why can't at least one of them know this? Most of them are experts on many aspects of airplanes and crashes, but they shouldn't make out like the ELT's will work through water!

[SLFplatine]

Originally Posted by Staggerwing http://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-post8390930.html#post8390930)
Hunter 58,

Early in this blog, I made a post concerning radar tracking by naval vessels that may have been close to the flight path of the aircraft. I did not receive a reply from anyone at the time and maybe you could answer the question: would naval vessels be able to track the aircraft using primary returns and, if so, what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?

I was assuming that there would have been some naval vessels, from various countries, operating somewhere in the area believed to have been overflown by the aircraft.

Regardless I would think it would be safe to assume the U.S. has satellite coverage of everything that moves in that neighborhood.

[Capt Kremin]

VH-TGG is owned by the Gandel Group. John Gandel owns a large private property business. He is a multi-billionaire. It looks like the aircraft was chartered by AMSA.

[SLFplatine]

Quote: Sometimes the aircraft stays together and floats for days.

Hardly likely if it goes down in the roaring 40s

[LASJayhawk]

FWIW: The recorders are rated to survive for 30 days at 20,000 feet.

[Interested_Party]

The Hoegh St Petersburg was diverted 3 days ago. When was the news broken?

http://i56.photobucket.com/albums/g191/99ql/ScreenShot2014-03-21at30422PM_zps7a3fe31f.png

[dougdrvr]

The CVR and FDR will last for years (depending on impact damage) its the sonar pinger batteries that are certified for at least 30 days. Anything over 30 days is gravy.

[ExSp33db1rd]

DOES ANYONE KNOW if malyasian air has a pilot's union? IFALP?

wondering why we haven't heard from them if they have one? Why should we, if there's nothing to say, don't say it ?

We don't know if the pilots were HERO or ZERO, and 'suggestions' that the pilots might have been implicated in some deliberate way are perfectly valid at the moment but until any unproven allegations are made against them the Union has no role to play - yet.

[GunpowderPlod]

BBC News just now "It's far too early to be jumping to conclusions." !!:)

[kappa]

In spite of the SNR “signal-to-noise ratio”, I prefer to get my info on this forum rather than on the TV. I know I will read everything that is said or published anywhere and whether it is, or becomes, a reliable “known”.

Tonight I was glancing at a news article on the web and saw a reference to the info that it has been confirmed that there were multiple “pings” recorded (a deduction here many days ago). But what was new to me was that it was reported the later “pings” indicated (in addition to what has been the accepted data) that the aircraft was “over water” and that was a/the reason the search had shifted to the southern arc.

I didn’t bother to mentally record where I saw this because I was sure I would see it on these pages; but I see nothing. Is this more press speculation and made-up “facts”?

[completely deck]

Or is it possible to "create" a WP by entering latitude and longitude in the FMG?

Yes it's possible to enter coordinates as waypoints.

[MG23]

I didn’t bother to mentally record where I saw this because I was sure I would see it on these pages; but I see nothing. Is this more press speculation and made-up “facts”?

I think so. I don't see any way the satellite data could really show the aircraft was over water... banking between mountains, maybe, from the signal level and dropouts, but any reasonable altitude over water should be pretty much perfect conditions, just like flying high over land.

[Shadoko]

...that the aircraft was “over water”...In some languages, INMARSAT could be heared as ATSEASAT (in mar ~ en mar ~ en el mar (Spanish) = at sea...). So, perhaps a Gogol translate interfered? :8

[OXCART]

Regarding the CVR and FDR lifespan at the bottom of the ocean:

The FDR/CVR for Itavia Flight 870 which was shot-down on June 27, 1980 were only recovered in July of 1991 at a depth of 3700m (12140ft).

Both were in excellent condition and manufactured in 1966.

[Rabbitwear]

Old FDR had stainless steel tape , I think modern technology would be solid state and possibly more easily destroyed.

[Capt Kremin]

Some insights from an ex-RAAF P3 pilot.

As one of the ex P-3 people with experience of searching for things in the Southern / Indian Oceans I thought I might be able to contribute some informed comment on this thread.

Re the P-3 endurance - it is not crew duty but engine out depressurized considerations (3 engine 10,000' cruise) that is the real limiting factor. You have to base everything on returning to Perth / Pearce. We were able to fudge this a bit by using a tailwind component on some flights but you don't actually know the 10,000ft winds so you don't want to get too greedy. There are also issues with loitering engines which is a normal P-3 procedure to extend time on station. Because of the risk of a prop overspeed on a restart you need to be able to start the engine at some altitude with a relatively high TAS or the drag could be really high and you will end up in the drink off SW WA. If there are icing conditions, even a thin layer of cloud can cause a loitered engine to ice up in a flash - can take days to thaw out the solid lump and you are struggling to get back to PER / PEA so you won't loiter. With a limited on station time the benefits of loitering are small and while the risks of a malfunction during engine shutdown are small as well you have to decide if it is worth it. In my series of searches very few captains loitered engines and then only when the weather was clear enabling hi alt shutdowns and restarts.

If the crews are on the ball they will be taking off overweight, using true cruise climbs to on station (i.e set max cont engine temp and max range cruise speed and slowly climb continually) and using min operating reserves (15 mins fixed and no variable). However, to get more than three hours on station would be great going. You actually land with plenty of gas because of the 3 eng 10 considerations.

Re the search

Objects will be very hard to spot!!!! Especially if they are awash.

I was asked by an artist to describe the colours I observed so he could do a painting of one of the yachtie rescues. He painted it but when I described the colours you could see is heart sink - I told him we were in a grey aeroplane over a grey and choppy sea with grey cloud and a hazy grey horizon. We spotted one sailor visually but what we spotted was him standing on the top of the cabin of his sinking yacht which was awash - it was the contrast (he appeared black) which made him visible and we had a beacon location accurate to about 5nm enabling a dense sector search over a reasonably low sea state (3 - 4) and about 2 - 3 mile vis. The other two were radar homings to upturned yachts which stuck above the surface and made good radar and infrared targets - and we had reasonably recent satellite beacon positions to go on. (N.B. none of them had proper EPIRBS but used a French tracking system where the beacons only sent signals intermittently for short periods). You couldn't make them out visually until fairly close as they were white hulls in very angry seas with lots of white wave crests, sea spray, etc; even though they were sticking well out of the water. I did 4 missions searching for stuff down there and the weather was never good and one of the most striking features was how the conditions changed rapidly with time and over small distances.

With any potential MH370 wreckage, there won't be much temperature contrast to help infrared and if the sea state is up, picking out a radar target against sea clutter will be hard (although both the radar and IRDS are better than in my day). I think the best chance is for any items picked up on satellite to be quickly passed to the crews so they can narrow the area of probability. This will be difficult as detecting and interpreting any images may take some time. I hope it is quicker than AMSA passed on satellite beacon data when we searched for the yachties (it was 17 years ago but the importance of speed in transferring the info was one of our biggest debrief points to AMSA). At least they should start to be getting some actual drift rates from beacons and buoys that will have been dropped which should help, and awash objects shouldn't have high wind drifts to complicate the issue.

I can understand sending HMAS Success down there as it is a versatile ship with the ability to lift and store items out of the water - carry a decent helo, etc. However, I would love to see an ASW ship (ie an ANZAC class) and better yet a submarine heading South to search for the data recorder beacons (in the predicted flight path) - their batteries will only last a couple more weeks at best. While the area is large making detection probability low, detecting the beacons is the best way of speeding the time and reducing the cost of finding and recovering the recorders.

[nonsense]

There is only one logical explanation. But nobody wants to say it out loud. No technical failure nor hijack could have taken MH 370 to this place of all places.

Suicide happens. Even pilots commit suicide, and as has been noted, a small number have done so, not in the privacy of their own homes, but in the cockpit of large passenger aircraft.

Some suicidal people choose not just to kill themselves, but to vanish in the process; this incident looks an awful lot like a very nearly successful attempt to do just that, thwarted only by the satellite pings proving the aircraft remained intact for many more hours and hinting at it's location.

But Egyptian investigators aren't the only ones who feel that the possibility of suicide must not be acknowledged. Doubtless both our posts will vanish like previous posts suggesting that, actually, aviation experts are not qualified to determine that no pilot would ever commit such an act.

Move right along people, there is no elephant in the room, nothing to see here....

[Rabbitwear]

Is the search area within the boundaries of the flight time availiable to the 777 , what was the fuel load, has it been published anywhere.
Forgive me for not reading nearly 7000 posts

[Contact Approach]

Why would he deliberately fly that far? Same disappearing act could have been achieved at much shorter distance.

[rampstriker]

@kappa

Here's Andy Pasztors March 14th WSJ article. (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304185104579437573396580350?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702 304185104579437573396580350.html)

Malaysia Airlines' missing jet transmitted its location repeatedly to satellites over the course of five hours after it disappeared from radar, people briefed on the matter said, as searchers zeroed in on new target areas hundreds of miles west of the plane's original course.

The satellites also received speed and altitude information about the plane from its intermittent "pings," the people said. The final ping was sent from over water, at what one of these people called a normal cruising altitude. They added that it was unclear why the pings stopped. One of the people, an industry official, said it was possible that the system sending them had been disabled by someone on board.

The people, who included a military official, the industry official and others, declined to say what specific path the transmissions revealed. But the U.S. planned to move surveillance planes into an area of the Indian Ocean 1,000 miles or more west of the Malay peninsula where the plane took off, said Cmdr. William Marks, the spokesman for the U.S. Seventh Fleet...


How did "the people" know the aircraft's altitude, speed and whether it was over water from the last ping? If this is true, then it's pretty evil for them to allow the current goose chasing in desert Central Asia. Good catch!

[tartare]

Great post Kremin.
You've got to take your hat off to those young P3 crews, hell of a job.
And it's often bumpy as sh!t out there too.
I stood behind an RNZAF P3 Captain, holding onto the back of his seat as we did sharp low levels turns over the Manukau Harbour in 2003 - had me nearly puking - not quite the g's but just as nausea inducing as fast jets.
And the guys down the back just carried on staring at their screens with no windows, as if nothing was happening.

[fred_the_red]

Agree with tartare. I remember spending many hours in a Nimrod S&R over the North Sea. Hour after hour of very low level 90 degree turns had even the most hardy of crew reaching for the bags.
Good luck to everyone involved in the operation :D

[MrDK]

@Dont Hang Up
State of the art technology does not have to be safe to be installed in your teenage kids' PC. Failures are an inconvenience not a disaster.
Keeping safety critical systems safe means they may run a generation (or two) behind the latest capabilities. That is not a bad thing.
Let's face it, using "current technology" batteries in aircraft has created a few issues recently.

@bsieker
And of course PCs have more memory. They are decades newer and they don't have to survive hours in a kerosene-fuelled fire and/or weeks deep under water. Not to mention a 3500G(!) impact shock and still be readable.

To say that a mechanical magnitic tape recorder is safer and more reliable than solid state is :mad:.
Some military specs for solid state call for 15,000G.
It has already been establised that SSD has been used in CVR, so that negates all arguments about reliability, submertion and G-force.
Only question left is why only enough memory for 2-hours, when 1,000's is inexpensive.
IF reliability of a memory block is a concern look at corporations, governments and militaries that have been using RAID systems for decades, which can incorporate any number of mirror storage devices, so if one fails the same data will be on 1, 2 or 3 other devices.
Unlike a mechanical media SSD can be made fully waterproof by potting.

In the case of MH370 and speculating that it flew for several hours after transmissions stopped, a revolving recording time of only two hours means that some of the most important audio from around the time when contact was lost will probably not be retrievable even if the recorders are found.
How reliable is that?

[Hempy]

Agree with tartare. I remember spending many hours in a Nimrod S&R over the North Sea. Hour after hour of very low level 90 degree turns had even the most hardy of crew reaching for the bags.
Good luck to everyone involved in the operation :D

Add the fact that the poor bloody coneheads sitting in the cabin of the aircraft are all facing sideways...
Go get em 10/11 Sqn

[Propduffer]

rampstriker (http://www.pprune.org/members/414758-rampstriker?) (post 6867)

That article was first released on the 13th and I saved the earlier version of it. The version the WSJ currently displays is from the 14th and is an update.

Here is a snippet from the copy I saved from the 13th which includes an extra sentence claiming that they had speed and altitude information.

(Flight 370) transmitted its location repeatedly to satellites over the course of five hours after it disappeared from radar, people briefed on the matter said, as searchers zeroed in on new target areas hundreds of miles west of the plane's original course. The satellites also received speed and altitude information about the plane from its intermittent "pings," the people said. The final ping was sent from over water, at what one of these people called a normal cruising altitude. They added that it was unclear why the pings stopped. One of the people, an industry official, said it was possible that the system sending them had been disabled by someone on board.....

There will be many books written about this episode, I hope one of them is devoted to the release, mis-release and non-release of information regarding flight MH370.

[Mesoman]

Quote:
Originally Posted by fred_the_red http://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-344.html#post8391653)
Agree with tartare. I remember spending many hours in a Nimrod S&R over the North Sea. Hour after hour of very low level 90 degree turns had even the most hardy of crew reaching for the bags.
Good luck to everyone involved in the operation :D

Add the fact that the poor bloody coneheads sitting in the cabin of the aircraft are all facing sideways...
Go get em 10/11 Sqn Yep. I've been on lots of P-3B flights with (side facing) nugget sensor operators. Sub hunting involved flying lots of low level patterns. We always made them clean their own barf off their consoles. Yech.

My secret to not getting sick (beyond experience) was good Navy box lunches. Slowly eating those, and periodically orienting to face straight forward, did the job. It wasn't helped by the smell coming from the tactical spaces.

[Astrax]

Rabbitwear said
Old FDR had stainless steel tape , I think modern technology would be solid state and possibly more easily destroyed.

Guess not.
Magnetic properties change with temperature and stainless steel is usually low magnetic material.
Data programmed into solid state Nand memory may after the solder process, show no change in data retention.
Light weight, small dimensions make it easier to protect.

[bcpr]

Another "They didn't ask us for it."

Satellites Searching for Missing Plane Have Limits - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/satellites-searching-missing-plane-limits-22992129)

A Pentagon spokesman, Rear Adm. John Kirby, said that as far as he knows, the U.S. has received no specific requests to review its satellite data in response to the discovery in the southern Indian Ocean.

[oblivia]

The first item is software - not related to storage device (except for recording length)
Item 3 and 4 have to do with the CVR\FDR it self, not the storage device. (I have never seen a PCB that can withstand anywhere near 1100C).


All those requirements relate to the "crash-survivable memory unit", which is basically a tough metal container filled with an insulating material and the solid-state memory chips.

However, you're absolutely right to say that the storage capacity could easily be increased. Indeed, these units come off the shelf with 512KB of ROM memory but can be expanded with optional flash memory.

[Communicator]

I believe the original version of the WSJ story was based on the notion that substantive ACARS messages were received from the aircraft (by Boeing, Rolls Royce and perhaps MAS), and that those messages included location and altitude information.

WSJ later understood that only non-substantive "pings" were received from the aircraft via Satcom.


@kappa

Here's Andy Pasztors March 14th WSJ article.

Quote:
Malaysia Airlines' missing jet transmitted its location repeatedly to satellites over the course of five hours after it disappeared from radar, people briefed on the matter said, as searchers zeroed in on new target areas hundreds of miles west of the plane's original course.

The satellites also received speed and altitude information about the plane from its intermittent "pings," the people said. The final ping was sent from over water, at what one of these people called a normal cruising altitude. They added that it was unclear why the pings stopped. One of the people, an industry official, said it was possible that the system sending them had been disabled by someone on board.

The people, who included a military official, the industry official and others, declined to say what specific path the transmissions revealed. But the U.S. planned to move surveillance planes into an area of the Indian Ocean 1,000 miles or more west of the Malay peninsula where the plane took off, said Cmdr. William Marks, the spokesman for the U.S. Seventh Fleet...

How did "the people" know the aircraft's altitude, speed and whether it was over water from the last ping? If this is true, then it's pretty evil for them to allow the current goose chasing in desert Central Asia. Good catch!

[starliner]

I reckon any fairly literate person with 1 hour of research, could switch a transponder to standby, switch off ACARS transmission, and manage course with the AP heading selector. If they have a PC SIM even better. They could not, of course, do much more than that. Hijack (gone wrong) seems just as possible as any other scenario here, doesn't it ?

[rampstriker]

I believe the original version of the WSJ story was based on the notion that substantive ACARS messages were received from the aircraft (by Boeing, Rolls Royce and perhaps MAS), and that those messages included location and altitude information.

WSJ later understood that only non-substantive "pings" were received from the aircraft via Satcom.


Interesting that the story mentions satellites rather than a single satellite. That would imply a satellite in addition to Inmarsat's detected the pings. Perhaps a satellite that could also detect an "echo" from the plane's ping being reflected off water? Hmmm. That could give you all sorts of useful calculations.

[InfrequentFlier511]

What would you see if you scanned an area of ocean with LADS? Obviously not the ocean floor at those depths, but would it pick up semi-submerged objects of the size reported? Would it be any better, faster or more reliable (or serve as an aid to) visual search, when light or visibility is not that great? Or would it require a far finer search grid than can be searched visually? (How wide a swathe can you search visually?)

[Interested_Party]

May I please just clarify from one who operates the equipment commercially and has flown for 35 years:
- With the sole exception of the 'handshake' pings no information has come from the aircraft. The only other information on the flight may be the primary radar information and the accuracy and interpretation may be suspect.
- The transponder may have been turned off or may have failed but there is no way of knowing which.
- Pilots cannot turn off the ACARS from the flight deck. If you doubt this ask one who flies a B777 or perhaps explain why I am wrong?
- There was no position, altitude or speed information transmitted to the ground after the incident. The only way that may happen is through the transponder (off/failed) or CPDLC. CPDLC would not have been used on this sector as KL and Vietnam do not use it.
- The 'ACARS' does not transmit any flight plan information that the pilots may have programed into the FMC. CPDLC does so through the ACARS but CPDLC was not used. There is no way of knowing what was in the plan or changes.

All of these theories of hijack/interference/crew involvement appear to be based on information that the aircraft did not and could not transmit. They came from officials listening to pilots, misunderstanding and trying to look important by telling the media inaccurate information and the media then happily published it.

[Mahatma Kote]

2. They were published. http://i.imgur.com/zNgnicG.png?1 (http://apicdn.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=1e857e7500cdd32403f752206c297a3d&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-344.html&out=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzNgnicG.png%3F1&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news-13%2F)

No they weren't. Read the fine print. Only the final ping was published. The others are interpolations by the BBC based on a high probability track.

[Neogen]

UPDATE 8 (Day 14): MISSING MH370: India says no to China - Latest - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/latest/8-font-color-red-update-8-day-14-missing-mh370-font-india-says-no-to-china-1.524714)

India has declined China's request for permission to allow four of its warships near the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago.

China still interested in searching near Andaman!! Do these Chinese know that others dont know.. why working on separate line?

[Ornis]

Interested Party

The Aviationist » What SATCOM, ACARS and Pings tell us about the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 (http://theaviationist.com/2014/03/16/satcom-acars-explained/)
ACARS transmissions can be switched off by the pilot from inside the cockpit, by disabling the use of VHF and SATCOM channels. This means that the system is not completely switched off, but it can’t transmit to the receiving stations.

[FE Hoppy]

Interested_Party

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 12
May I please just clarify from one who operates the equipment commercially and has flown for 35 years:
- With the sole exception of the 'handshake' pings no information has come from the aircraft. The only other information on the flight may be the primary radar information and the accuracy and interpretation may be suspect.
- The transponder may have been turned off or may have failed but there is no way of knowing which.
- Pilots cannot turn off the ACARS from the flight deck. If you doubt this ask one who flies a B777 or perhaps explain why I am wrong?
- There was no position, altitude or speed information transmitted to the ground after the incident. The only way that may happen is through the transponder (off/failed) or CPDLC. CPDLC would not have been used on this sector as KL and Vietnam do not use it.
- The 'ACARS' does not transmit any flight plan information that the pilots may have programed into the FMC. CPDLC does so through the ACARS but CPDLC was not used. There is no way of knowing what was in the plan or changes.

All of these theories of hijack/interference/crew involvement appear to be based on information that the aircraft did not and could not transmit. They came from officials listening to pilots, misunderstanding and trying to look important by telling the media inaccurate information and the media then happily published it.

You don't need to turn off ACARS. You need to disable transmission via VHF,HF and SATCOM. You can do that. Check your FCOM

There are many ACARS message formats including position reports and flight plan reports. Just because your company doesn't use them doesn't mean they don't exist. Google ACARS if you don't have the documentation.

I know lots of pilots who have learnt a lot about ACARS and SATCOM from this tragic event. You may wish to take the opportunity also.

[ExSp33db1rd]

@ExSp33db1rd

Maybe the role should be to constantly point out that one or both of the pilots may be totally inocent and to support them and their families until the facts are known.Quote:
Quote:
DOES ANYONE KNOW if malyasian air has a pilot's union? IFALP? wondering why we haven't heard from them if they have one?


Why should we, if there's nothing to say, don't say it ?

We don't know if the pilots were HERO or ZERO, and 'suggestions' that the pilots might have been implicated in some deliberate way are perfectly valid at the moment but until any unproven allegations are made against them the Union has no role to play - yet.Totally agree, and I hope that they are in fact giving the families that support, I would expect no less from my membership in similar circumstances, but the question was asked as to why "we" hadn't heard from them, "we" don't need to know at this stage, and if the support isn't there, what are "we" able to do about it anyway ?

I repeat, if there's nothing to say, don't say it - just get on with it. The Malaysian Pilots' Union - if there is one - doesn't need our approval or otherwise.
It might be "nice" to know, it certainly isn't "need" to know.

[Interested_Party]

Ornis, I read the Aviationist article and they quote "Although this is still debated, according to several pilots the ACARS transmissions can be switched off by the pilot from inside the cockpit, by disabling the use of VHF and SATCOM channels".

FE_Hoppy, I have just re-read my FCOM. No way is explained to turn off the SATCOM. Yes each ACARS is customized to an airlines specs. I have carefully read through all I could find on available specs and it did not appear to offer downloading of flight plan data to the airlines ops. Yes, we can all uplink a plan.

Would you agree that with the acars and transponder off then no data apart from the ping response came from the aircraft after the incident?

[Wannabe Flyer]

News Flash: Indian Navy's P-8I and Air Force's C-130J take off from Indian shores to re-join search for missing Malaysia Airlines jet....

Not sure if they are headed out to Bay Of Bengal or down to Perth. If the former is there some new information that is in synch with the Chinese request to enter Bay of Bengal

[xgjunkie]

SLFplatine
Early in this blog, I made a post concerning radar tracking by naval vessels that may have been close to the flight path of the aircraft. I did not receive a reply from anyone at the time and maybe you could answer the question: would naval vessels be able to track the aircraft using primary returns and, if so, what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?

I was assuming that there would have been some naval vessels, from various countries, operating somewhere in the area believed to have been overflown by the aircraft.

Regardless I would think it would be safe to assume the U.S. has satellite coverage of everything that moves in that neighborhood.

Typical naval air search radar operates out to approx 450km and to a height in excess of 150,000ft.
There may well have been many warships out there but the radar operators are trained to take notice of a contact if it threatens the ship, ie... Flies towards it. Single contacts at high altitude on a constant heading are usually deemed friendly and ignored.

[rampstriker]

FE_Hoppy, I have just re-read my FCOM. No way is explained to turn off the SATCOM. Yes each ACARS is customized to an airlines specs. I have carefully read through all I could find on available specs and it did not appear to offer downloading of flight plan data to the airlines ops. Yes, we can all uplink a plan.


MAS didn't subscribe to ACARS reports via SATCOM on this plane (expense reasons). But FE_Hoppy indicated in an earlier post disabling ACARS comms was about 5 keypresses on the MFD though (MODE>COMM something something)

An ACARS contract can be set up so that a Waypoint Change triggers an ACARS event report.

[RATpin]

Any one know if an SH-60 was embarked with HMAS Success?

[Oldpilot55]

Infrequentflier 511
Do you mean Lidar? Green laser Lidar can penetrate up to 70 metres or so depending on the properties of the water (and atmosphere) so yes it can be used to detect objects under the surface. My understanding is that a swathe is recorded which is dependent on height of the aircraft above the sea. There will be an optimum height for maximum penetration but clearly the lower you fly the narrower the swathe. Its an angular thing.
Another complication is that other sensors on the aircraft will benefit from height eg if you are looking for a large object then you might want to fly higher and this would conflict with a deep penetrating Lidar survey.
They will also be using other sensors such as radar and various types of photography.

[Hunter58]

The gorgeous Megan Kelley ( fox news)interviewed the vice chairman of the senate intelligence committee, Senator Chambliss and he told her. (And I quote from the video):

"We know for example that somebody manually turned that transponder off."

Kelley asked how do we know that?

answer: "well those that have examined it and er particularly the folks from Boeing who obviously made the airplane , from what they have been told, ah there just simply is no way that a catastrophic event turned that transponder off. Somebody had to manually turn it off. "

She said she asked him if that means its a highjacking or a terroist act and he said absolutely no question about it.

she then asked tom blank a former deputy had of tsa and he wildly veered off the subject talking goobldy gook.

Now BOEING should know better than that. Incidents and accidents in aviation do NEVER happen because of one cause. And it is gobbeldygook anyway, there are plenty of possibilities with a catastrophic event that can take the transponder out. And taking the transponder off-line can be the reaction of another catastrophic event.

If those conversations with Boeing effectively happened the only advise I can give their General Counsel is to hire the lawfirms already.

Who did Boeing send there to make such unqualified remarks? An accountant? A lawver? A salesman?

INCREDIBLE!!! No wonder the aircraft has not been found yet. aif even the 'experts' can't give you any reasonable answers...

[volcanicash]

http://s3.postimg.org/r4tzkukeb/MH370_Ping_Map.jpg (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjJxzETCQAAxMFP.png)

Are we still doing this? Just to be clear, the original source of this infographic was Reuters Asia Financial Graphics team (https://twitter.com/ChristineHHChan). Their version did not show information about earlier handshake signals. The “ping” arcs were added by an Australian designer (https://twitter.com/_AntiAlias_) and are simply (quote) “rough reverse extrapolation of NTSB tracks based on constant speed and track assumptions”. As has been previously noted here, the nature of these additions is clearly indicated on the graphic.

[D.S.]

Hunter58

Now BOEING should know better than that.

...uhm, but we don't know what Boeing knows, nor why they would have said what they said

[Hunter58]

How did "the people" know the aircraft's altitude, speed and whether it was over water from the last ping? If this is true, then it's pretty evil for them to allow the current goose chasing in desert Central Asia. Good catch!

The real problem is, the don't know, the just ASSUME because it would have to cross some radar coverage. And as long you don't KNOW you better look at both places.

There are still too many loose ends and obviously too many people involved who do not have the necessary knowledge to advise the right decision. See the alleged Boeing replies regarding the transponders.

[D.S.]

Neogen said,

China still interested in searching near Andaman!! Do these Chinese know that others dont know.. why working on separate line?are probably dying to see what all equipment India is hiding on them.

There have been a few reports indicating they were kind of dying to get on the other side of the Peninsula, period, for a while. They were eventually invited over to the other side to help search when Malaysia finally gave up on the public (not private) 'it didn't turn around' stance, and now they are refining the area they specifically want to look at? Hummm... they could always just tell India to specifically look wherever if they had an idea - it is not like they physically have to do it themselves

Remember, there is a reason nearly everyone in the area distrusts China.

[3Greens]

Takes a bit more than loss of C Vhf on the 777 that I fly. 777 has satcom. Not going to go into details of how to do it here; suffice to say that one has to Know a bit about the 777 to fully disable the ADS/ACARS system

[Oro-o]

Hunter58

Quote:
Now BOEING should know better than that.
...uhm, but we don't know what Boeing knows, nor why they would have said what they said

The "source" of this is 2nd hand information from a known liar. I would not take anything Saxby Chambliss says an accurate reflection on facts without independent verification. A more histrionic dissimulator is hard to find this side of Caracas.

I also agree with you that it's an excuse for China to do some spying - my first instant instinct was the camel's nose was trying to poke under the tent...

[Saint-Ex]

Excellent interview by Fox`s Megan Kelly with Inmarsat ceo Chris Mclaughlin. He explained in layman`s terms exactly why the hourly ping was identified as that particular aircraft and the Inmarsat equipment responsible for the signal His measured answers to other leading questions were an example to all.

[InfrequentFlier511]

Oldpilot55

Essentially, yes, LADS (http://www.hydro.gov.au/aboutus/lads.htm) is a variation on LiDAR. The Australian Hydrographic Service made extensive use of it to update coastal charts. I think they used a Dash-8, which wouldn't be much use here, plus I wouldn't want to be betting the success of the mission on technology that isn't proven for the task, but it's food for thought.

[surely not]

A couple of (well probably 10-20 by now) pages back in this thread there was a post claiming some high ranking US Military official was 100% certain Pakistan was behind this and that within 24-48 hours it would become public.

72 hours on and I think we can safely file that 'concrete information' in the rubbish pile of conjecture that surrounds this flight. Hopefully he will be demoted and kept out of any meetings discussing the next war to embark upon.

I agree with calls to refrain from casting the pilot as a villain. For all we know as a fact he might be the hero who has sacrificed his own life to put the aircraft on this heading and thwarted the hijackers original plan.

How long is it before there will be some confirmation of what the debris is that has been spotted floating in the Ocean some way off Australia?

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

I keep hearing these "expert" commentators on TV, saying they don't know why the 406mhz signal hasn't been detected from at least one of the ELT's, while they are talking about the plane being in the Indian Ocean. It's because 406mhz won't go through water!!! The ELT is for a crash on land. Why can't at least one of them know this? Most of them are experts on many aspects of airplanes and crashes, but they shouldn't make out like the ELT's will work through water!

Now I'm puzzled, why are ELTs activated on contact with water then? Given 71% of the earth's surface is water there's a good chance you need ELTs to transmit from or through water isn't there? And these 406MHz ones are the latest type?

[ EDIT - I now understand that it's the CVR/FDR that are fitted with an underwater locator beacon not the ELT, apologies ]

[HarryMann]

... because they should float?
C'mon... let's just sit back & listen to the experts in their fields & not keep posting repetitive questions & nonsense noise here.

Go up a gear everyone & don't post unless it's a serious contribution or a question of some thought, understanding and erudition.

[Speed of Sound]

Now I'm puzzled, why are ELTs activated on contact with water then?

They are not.

They are activated by a g-switch which is one of the reasons why they are so unreliable.

[EngineeringPilot]

They are activated by a g-switch which is one of the reasons why they are so unreliable.


Yep the ELT g-swithc activates on an acceleration of 3.5 ft/s, and they have a battery life of only 30 days upon activation.

[TURIN]

SLFJB

I would assume there would be a three crew compliment on such a flight.

[Heli-phile]

Until definite wreckage is found the northern arc is just as valid as the southern. Surely the southern route would offer no 'benefits' for hijackers.

[Lancair70]

Typical naval air search radar operates out to approx 450km and to a height in excess of 150,000ft.
There may well have been many warships out there but the radar operators are trained to take notice of a contact if it threatens the ship, ie... Flies towards it. Single contacts at high altitude on a constant heading are usually deemed friendly and ignored.


Is this data saved at all ?

Reviewing it may reveal something?

That's of course if there were any Naval ships in the area at all.

They are activated by a g-switch which is one of the reasons why they are so unreliable.

I know that ocean going EPIRB's are available that activate on contact with water. Surely that could be built in to Aircraft models.

[GreyhoundMUC]

The fixed ELT is activated that way, but airlines may have also portable ELTs, some are activated with fluids (even urine) like water, seawater and they float, also have a self erecting antenna, others are handheld with push to talk feature! These portable ones are stored in the cabin for the flight attendants, or directly with the liferafts. Only a lurker here, but more than twenty years of breathing cabin air for a living!
I just hope that this freak story gets a proper explanation soon. My thoughts are with our colleagues, the passengers and all their families!!!

[RichardC10]

Volcanicash
Are we still doing this? Just to be clear, the original source of this infographic was Reuters Asia Financial Graphics team. Their version did not show information about earlier handshake signals. The “ping” arcs were added by an Australian designer and are simply (quote) “rough reverse extrapolation of NTSB tracks based on constant speed and track assumptions”. As has been previously noted here, the nature of these additions is clearly indicated on the graphic.As you say, these published maps are just cartoons and don't reveal anything exact about the route derived by NTSB from the pings. The original AMSA maps showed the search area straddling two courses stated as being the NTSB solutions, but AMSA said then they had already corrected for currents since the 8th March, so the NTSB course solutions must have been well to the West of the search area. Therefore, the course lines on the AMSA maps were just sketched in to give a general idea. The fact that the search area has moved significantly to the East in the last few days may suggest the original AMSA West to East drift correction is was wrong.

[Pontius Navigator]

SLFJB

I would assume there would be a three crew compliment on such a flight.

May I suggest that that is an invalid assumption. It is true that there should be 3 pilots but no one has answered my earlier question:

What was the culture amongst MAS aircrew? We know there were acknowledged breaches of the rules, was it the norm for the PNF to have a kip on a red eye?

[Ornis]

ELTs switch on when the aircraft crashes but often the aerial breaks so the transmission is not heard and they don't work under water. Hence the suggestions of having EPIRBs that float. Life rafts have PLBs with an ON switch.

Whatever is done to improve security, nothing can stop determined pilots killing passengers; it might make it more difficult to disguise the fact and get them the benefit of the doubt.

[givemewings]

Golf-Mike-Mike, very possible the media is confusing the aircraft-mounted ELTs with the portable ones in the cabin. Most are designed to float while tethered to a slide raft and many of those models have a water activation mode... the older style was such that to use it on land you needed to use dirty water or urine in a bag and stand the beacon in it... needless to say the newer ones are much easier to use....

SLFJB- what you describe would be consistent with a 3-pilot crew, I wouldn't think any 2-pilot crew would take rest like that (with one outside the cabin) In my experience it'd be one captain 2 f/os unless a training sector where it may be 2 captains one f/o, so if one did rest in the cabin there'd still be 2 pilots up front

[SLFJB]

Most article's mention 2 pilots

One very experienced ( over 15000 hrs) and one less experienced ( but still very able). Did not see reference to a staff of three.

Given that it is reported that the senior pilot had attended some political event that day, - possibly even likely that he was getting some shut eye outside the flight deck.

As stated above have NOT seen any reference to 3 on the flight deck

Would you have three for a 6 hour flight?

[WetFeet]

Is there any way of getting the actual flight planned route filed, including the waypoints that would have been programmed into the FMS for the flight before departure? Just something that is niggling me at the moment.

[Blake777]

Anyone notice that Hishamuddin definitely said six pings were received at the press conference tonight?

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

Further clarification today from the Malaysian authorities that the data came in from INMARSAT but was sent to and from the US and the investigation team twice for further processing and then corroborated by the UK's AAIB.
SAR assets were dispatched to both corridors immediately they concluded that analysis. So explaining timescales over which they got it, processed it, and announced conclusions from it.

They've also just re-confirmed their belief that the first officer made the "All right, good night" call.

[A69]

Anyone notice that Hishamuddin definitely said six pings were received at the press conference tonight?

Yeah he did say so. But we already were quite sure about that right?
This being now confirmed brings in a whole new angle in.

[El Grifo]

Now finally being revealed that the the aircraft was carrying a consignment of Lithium-Ion batteries !

[Squawk_ident]

At the end of the press conference that ended just now, a journalist from ?Reuters asked about a phone call that was given from ? the cockpit to ??? and the answer was "we are investigating". The sound was not good. Anyone heard about this phone call??

[bunk exceeder]

SLFJB- not sure what you mean about turning the Comms off when away from the home airport. I've never heard of that before. And napping down the back presumes three crew and no bunks.

At my old airline, three crew kicked in at about 8:30 flight time and 9+ for a daytime report. The blanket FAA 8 hr thing does not apply everywhere and I don't know what kind of FTL's Malaysia use.

I would hope that we wouldn't sleep off the flight deck leaving only one pilot alone up there. It sort of defeats the purpose of having two pilots, non? Rather than getting away with an emergency, I would think it more likely that the cabin crew or a savvy pax would complain to management and you'd have an interesting time explaining yourself.

[EngineeringPilot]

@Squawk_ident

Anyone heard about this phone call??


Yes apparently the captain made a personal phone call to someone before take-off. Last I heard was the matter is being investigated, nothing out of it yet.

refer to link: Pilot 'made call in cockpit minutes before take off' (http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2014/03/21/10/44/pilot-made-call-in-cockpit-minutes-before-take-off)

[glenbrook]

ELTs switch on when the aircraft crashes but often the aerial breaks so the transmission is not heard and they don't work under water. Hence the suggestions of having EPIRBs that float. Life rafts have PLBs with an ON switch.

Whatever is done to improve security, nothing can stop determined pilots killing passengers; it might make it more difficult to disguise the fact and get them the benefit of the doubt.

I still find the suicide theory very hard to accept.
If this is suicide it is surely one of the most complicated and bizarre suicides in history. Leaving aside the astonishing cruelty of taking 226 others with you, what counts against murder-suicide, in my opinion is the infeasibly elaborate nature of the plan. You have to ensure the FO (or Captain) was out of the cockpit, passengers and crew incapacitated, you have to make sure this happens on an ATC handover, then you have to sneak past the radar of half a dozen countries and fly seven hours into the Indian Ocean somewhere.
Furthermore this audacious and intricate plan must be executed perfectly by an individual who is so miserable that he no longer wants to go on living. So many things could go wrong with this.

Admittedly there have been pilot suicides in the past, but they have been simple and quick. If murder-suicide is the best explanation that can be made fit the data so far, then I prefer no explanation until something else turns up.

[Hunter58]

Now finally being revealed that the the aircraft was carrying a consignment of Lithium-Ion batteries !

El Grifo

can you give us a source for this invaluable information?

[El Grifo]

can you give us a source for this invaluable information?

Today's press conference.

They covered it in some detail.

[1a sound asleep]

Missing MH370 carried lithium ion batteries as cargo but not seen as 'dangerous' (http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/se-asia/story/missing-mh370-carried-lithium-ion-batteries-cargo-not-seen-dangerous-201)

[Finn47]

Going forward industry-wide, could another pound of weight be invested in doubling the life of the flight data recorder's pinger from 30 to 60 days? I think I suggested doubling or tripling the underwater locator beacon battery size already in one of the AF447 threads. One Dukane ULB only weighs 7 ounces (200 grams), battery included, so the amount of added weight would not be much more than a pound or so for two slightly larger ULBs. Besides, they are located on the outside of the recorder boxes, so finding space for them might be easy.

[cynar]

@wewereborndrunk

I'd caution about reporting from the New Straits Times. The piece you cite is a television report based on a New Straits Times story that *speculates* that Australia is holding back vital data sourced from its Jindalee radar.

I have noticed that repeatedly the New Straits Times takes a hypothetical (e.g. the Australians have amazing radar and therefore must have seen the plane), combines it with a fact (the Australians would not tell Bloomberg news agency if they saw anything) and then creates a sensationalist story (Australians know and are refusing to share). There is no original reporting, no news, and it's not what I would call journalism.

As to the Jindalee, it's been discussed a lot on here. It would have had to be on and pointing in the right direction. The Australians, no more or less than any of the other nations, are hardly going to publicly announce when and where their radar is pointed.

However, imo, the data or lack of data (and either is helpful) gathered by Jindalee is obviously going to be internally leveraged within the Australian SAR effort. That imo is part of why they're taking the lead in the south. They can leverage their intel without routing it through other countries. They certainly are not hiding it from their own SAR effort -- otherwise they'd be putting on a multi-million-dollar theatrical event! Let's show some good faith that what seems to be a well-conducted and earnest search in the Indian Ocean is exactly that.

[Squawk_ident]

During the PC the MAS CEO was questioned about these batteries packages. Answer was that it was properly packed and NOT considered dangerous/hazardous as per ICAO standards.

[max nightstop]

There is little evidence about anything, so all possibilities remain open.

So, if the Lithium batteries weren't categorised as dangerous goods, how can you pack them according to ICAO instructions? ICAO only provides instructions for dangerous goods, doesn't it?

A quick search reveals lithium batteries have UN code 3090 or 3481 in the dangerous goods manual, so they are categorised and the CEO is lying.

[AndyJS]

"Anyone notice that Hishamuddin definitely said six pings were received at the press conference tonight?"

The only way they could have narrowed down the search to such an extent is with the data from all six pings. It would have been impossible with just the final ping at 8:11 (unless I've got the facts wrong).

[currawong]

They say ICAO, probably mean IATA

[500N]

Cynar,

Any data aust has us likely to be shared with the us and nz if relevant to the sar effort.

[Hunter58]

Hmmm, it is two years since I left cargo operation, but at my last place we did consider those batteries as CAO (cargo aircraft only), and included a temperature check before loading and a holdover time in hot outside temperatures. Basically we treated them like any other temperature sensitive material with the addition of an potential offload in case of.

Malaysian Cargo has obviously changed a lot since management change.

[Spirit8804]

Along with the searching of the southern oceans, there has been talk of "survivors". While I for one am hoping that this may be the case, is it really feasible?

[currawong]

The quantity may have been too small to qualify as such.

But again, this has not been disclosed.

[bunk exceeder]

And Dangerous Goods range from corrosives and the real stuff to things which aren't dangerous when limitations are complied with. Like gas powered hair curlers, matches, and sporting ammo. I would be interested to know what "a shipment of lithium ion batteries" actually means. A couple of new laptops in their boxes? Or a slab of just the batteries?

[Hunter58]

currawong

DGR is DGR. It always qualifies. The quantity allowed on board is a different subject.

[cynar]

@500N

Totally agree. I have thought from early on that the U.S. and Australia would pool intel that might not necessarily be routed through Malaysia. Sort of a back-channel. Plus, they might not reveal the exact *sources* of the intel, even to one another.

[Pontius Navigator]

Is this data [from Naval Warships] saved at all ?

That's of course if there were any Naval ships in the area at all.

Data can be saved for post-exercise or post-operation analysis. The key question though is their presence.

First, it would only be an anti-air war capable ship that would have such an air guard radar. Data recording is routine in maritime patrol aircraft and airborne early warning aircraft and, if replicated in a surface ship, could therefore be recovered.

The key point though is the presence of a naval ship, possible in the Bay of Bengal and unlikely in the southern ocean, and whether that ship was an air defence vessel. That is highly unlikely.

[Sheep Guts]

During the PC the MAS CEO was questioned about these batteries packages. Answer was that it was properly packed and NOT considered dangerous/hazardous as per ICAO standards.

That is the biggest admission yet. I'm sorry but all Lithium ion batteries UN3840 are categorized as dangerous goods. But different quantities and sizes are declared permissible dangerous goods. Either carry on by pax or in devices for carry and checked. Even certain lithium ion batteries by 100wh cannot be checked on.
If these batteries were placed in the cargo hold of MH370 in 5kg packs they are permissible under ICAO for pax aircraft. But the Airline must have a DG on pax aircraft policy.
35kg packs are Cargo Aircraft Only.
Honestly these new Lithium Ion battery rules that came out this year can be very confusing.
Irrespective the ICAO Drill for UN 3840 is 9FZ was upgraded from 9FL last year. But is this change enough. I think these batts should be banned from all pax flights. Except for carry on reason, laptop etc.
Once you put the new Z code on something and put in a cargo hold. Nothing will put out the fire. Seems insane to put this on a pax aircraft and also for that matter a cargo aircraft. A cargo aircraft can still crash into a village.
http://www.icao.int/safety/DangerousGoods/DGP%2024%20Working%20Papers/DGP.24.WP.076.4.en.pdf

[givemewings]

I was not saying that the flight in question has a 3-man crew. I was merely saying the behaviour described by SLF is 'typical' of a 3-man op. On a 2man crew the 'usual' method is controlled rest on the flight deck, not outside of it.

It's a valid question but the media have already started the lynch mob, let's not give them any more to start with until we can verify if it did in fact happen.... unlikely, I might add...

[currawong]

Hunter58,

We are on the same page then.

"Limited Quantity" I think is the term - been a while though :ok:

[funfly]

I know that this has been posted before but I can't find the answer.

As I understand it, the so called 'black box' has a loop system and will show only a certain period of time prior to a crash.

Obviously if only a few hours are contained there will be no information about the time of the event some (assumed) 7-8 hours prior to termination.

Does anyone have a figure for the time contained in the black box?

[Caygill]

Hunter58

DGR is DGR. It always qualifies. The quantity allowed on board is a different subject.

I must say lithium cells in forms and quantities that are prone to chain reactions are a risk I'd classify even above live ammunition. That said, single packed cells, perhaps as a part of some small electronic device is not very likely to cause that nasty fire that cannot be put out. They would still qualify as DGR though.

[Howard Hughes]

IATA Lithium Battery Guidance Document (http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/cargo/dgr/Documents/Lithium-Battery-Guidance-2013-V1.1.pdf)

[captains_log]

Lets just clarify we are talking about lithium-ion (rechargeable) as opposed to lithium which are single discharge (disposables)

And after the UPS crash i realised thanks to many very informative people on here just how dangerous this can be as cargo.

Read here for more info...imho it shouldn't be travelling as air freight.

Managing the lithium (ion) battery fire risk - Industrial Fire Journal - Fire & Rescue - Hemming Group Ltd (http://www.hemmingfire.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/1790/Managing_the_lithium__ion__battery_fire_risk.html)

[givemewings]

They may not be dangerous as properly packed cargo... but imho they are inherently dangerous as the average Joe does not see them as such...

case in point... a few years ago (before i knew better) ordered a couple of spare batteries for my Olympus camera. I was actually shocked when they arrived in a manila padded envelope marked as 'gift'. Not even isolated terminals and freely clinking around the bag.... I emailed the seller and they could not have cared less so I filed a report with eBay and explained that they needed to have a clear instruction on sale/shipping of these batteries.

Just think how many of these little 'gifts' are flying in your cargo hold daily :eek:

[EngineeringPilot]

@funfly

Does anyone have a figure for the time contained in the black box?


Blackbox can contain a minimum of 25hrs of flight data, apparently. However a CVR (cockpit voice recorder) can record upto 2hrs of audio.

Refer to link: What Is a Black Box?: Air Crash Investigation - National Geographic Channel - UK (http://natgeotv.com/uk/air-crash-investigation/black-box)

[wewereborndrunk]

Although I linked to that particular article, there are other news organisations that have asked the same questions about Australia's Over the Horizon Radar, including Bloomberg.

UK, AUS, NZ , Canadian and US intelligence surveillance systems are pretty much run as one system, centralized and guided by the US.

The US/Australian OTH radar is a joint operation and therefore it wouldn't even be a case of the Australian "handing over" information. As with GCHQ, this kind of intel is live streamed and patched into the US's global surveillance system.

Australia's OTH radar is not switched on or pointed in any direction, it is on permanently and covers the entire area as shown on the map I posted. One of its prime uses is as a missile defense detector and will track any moving object within its zone of detection.This zone of detection goes out at least 3000 km from the coastline of Australia, and most defence anaylists agree probably quite a bit more.

A large commercial airliner flying within this zone would automatically be detected, especially if it is flying over open water.

[Rob21]

CVR: last 2 hours

FDR: last 24 hours

[givemewings]

Mariner, perhaps it wasn't very clear but my point was I don't think they are very often packed properly. If shipped according to the regulation it minimises the risk but yes, it is still there (UPS6 anyone?)

Problem is all the joe publics out there who haven't a clue and then worse the freight forwarders who couldn't give a toss and just throw it on without honest documentation. I've worked with freight enough to know that there are a huge amount of either deliberately misleading descriptions or ignorance as to what constitutes a DG by air... Commercial freight is one thing but regular mail going on pax aircraft is a can of worms I hate to think about...

[7478ti]

I'd suggest that those quotes on all sides are likely very inaccurate, and were taken out of context,.... and were not even properly understood in a relevant context by the recipient? Usually only by finding the aircraft remains, and examining key components such as the E2 and E3 racks or their components, or perhaps information from definitive implicit or explicit sources such as a QAR, CVR, or DFDR, could a useful assertion, let alone a conclusion like that even be reliably made. Otherwise, those kinds of statements at this stage generally reflect a significant media misunderstanding of simple restatements of design objectives and requirements, or certification assumptions or criteria, and not an investigation fact.

[brika]

I would highly recommend reading the posts at

Lithium-Ion Batteries Linked to Airplane Fires - Slashdot (http://beta.slashdot.org/story/06/07/17/1857232/lithium-ion-batteries-linked-to-airplane-fires)

They seem to know what they are talking about.:hmm:

[cynar]

Interview by Fox's Megan Kelly with Chris McLaughlin, the VP from Inmarsat, regarding the pings and timeline of furnishing the data to the investigation. This is a great, factual interview, and the VP is clear and refuses to speculate beyond his expertise.

Satellite company official speaks out on tracking missing jet after it lost contact | Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/20/satellite-company-official-speaks-out-on-tracking-missing-jet-after-it-lost/)

[md80fanatic]

Yep the ELT g-swithc activates on an acceleration of 3.5 ft/s, and they have a battery life of only 30 days upon activation.

A tad pedantic yes .. but ft/s is a velocity. Ft/s/s is an acceleration. I'm not sure where the 3.5 value comes from (a pedant would label it as -3.5) but it seems awfully small to me. At that rate it would take some 28.5 seconds to decelerate from 100 ft/s to a complete stop. That would mean the ELT would activate upon normal braking after a landing.

(Edit to correct time to stop)

[EPPO]

Afterthought: the a/c did have about 30 or so high tech people on board who collectively would have had a significant amount of L-I batteries either in cabin or in hold or a mixture.

You don't need techies on board for that. Just think of all the laptops, smartphones, tablets and the like that pax carry with themselves in any normal flight. Nearly all of them have Li-Ion battery packs.

Anyway, it's extremely unfrequent that they ignite/explode, but if that happened in cabin (i.e. when stowed in the luggage compartments together with coats), there would be a problem...

[balaton]

Hi All,

Reading your comments on CVR/DFDR data storage capability triggered an obvious question, not directly related to this event: In our high tech, electronic world with unbelievably huge, lightweight, super-fast data storage devices why on earth an advanced "electronic" aircraft has this two hour limit on voice storage???? Just to log a couple of voice tracks from the cockpit. Ridiculous!
(I could recall many events/accidents in recent aviation history where this limiatation was a negative factor in the investigation process.)

Cheers,

[currawong]

Again, there is no evidence to suggest batteries, or anything else in the hold for that matter had anything to do with this event.

[Hunter58]

currawong

sorry, there is also nothing leading the the conclusion that there were no batteries involved. However, you can paint a likely scenario from it, much better that some highjack or heist or suicide.

Also, remember, oxygen containers were supposedly safe to transport in any aircraft. Until ValuJet....:\

[Kerosene Kraut]

All data just needs to be stored outside the a/c. Including position data.

[blind pew]

Balaton
yes I agree but the CVR criteria comes from the days when pilots justifiably didn't trust management and the unions dictated the recording length and the ability to wipe it.
It was introduced in the UK after the Staines disaster in 1972 - sadly not a lot has changed if the recent Nat Geo program is anything to go by.

[currawong]

Hunter58,

not on the same page anymore.

The Valuejet oxygen generators were DG then, as they are now.

They were on board illegally. End of story.

[yarpos]

the CVR device also has to survive going in at high speed, being submerged , being on fire. If you can meet all the survival requirements more capacity would be good.

[Volume]

Also, remember, oxygen containers were supposedly safe to transport in any aircraft.That´s why they were probably marked as hazmat...
e.g. History Of ValuJet Airlines (http://avstop.com/history/historyofairlines/valuejet.html)
it was determined that oxygen generators, used in aircraft passenger service unites and classified as "HAZMAT" was on board flight 592 and had been loaded in the forward cargo compartment.
Maybe a lot of people supposed that this was purely another authorities bureaucratic nonsense, but those who knew their stuff never supposed them to be safe...

[brika]

Some few hundred posts ago….some said the AP would result in a descent rate of 300fpm to maintain flight until it gave up.
Don’t recall IMMarsat giving details of altitude of pings, simply distance. IF already taken into account, please delete this post and would be grateful for link.
Questions:
1 Given the shape of earth, it would depend on the altitude and distance of a/c to be able to talk to satellite, which means there is a minimum and a maximum altitude for satellite horizon areas, according to the distance. True?
2 If true, then would this not change the projected line of flight -from point of fuel exhaustion and altitude (PFEA) into a much broader lane? If true, then
a) how long would it take a/c to touch sea level after George has done his job, taking into account possible altitudes (max to min)?
b) what would be the maximum possible lateral deviation of a/c from PFEA to sea level, taking into account one engine running on air before the other (which means the lane gets broader still)?

[DaveReidUK]

A tad pedantic yes .. but ft/s is a velocity. Ft/s/s is an acceleration. I'm not sure where the 3.5 value comes from (a pedant would label it as -3.5) but it seems awfully small to me.A bit of confusion here.

In this context, 3.5 ft/s is indeed a velocity - specifically it's the change in longitudinal velocity required to activate the ELT, provided that's also accompanied by a minimum longitudinal acceleration of (minus) 2G.

At least that's the simplified version, there is actually a curve of G-vs-duration that defines the exact conditions required for activation.

[Interested_Party]

As to the Lithium-Ion batteries there have been concerns for a while and discussions between IFALPA, IATA, ICAO. For now they are acceptable to be carried in devices. i.e. we all want our iPads delivered on time, eh? It is not unusual to be flying with maybe 3 tonnes of the batteries in their devices.

Sorry, not picking on anyone specifically but here is a statement from further up that is an example of assumption based on no facts what-so-ever that should not be made and we are seeing a lot of that:
"If MH379 was operating in LNAV which seems to have been agreed"
Surely it is not up to us or anyone to agree about the flight conduct without facts?

[Pontius Navigator]

BBC reporter at Pearce "And some of the planes even come back after dark"

Assume they leave the search area at last light which may be about 2 hrs later than at Pearce then they will get home about 6 hours after dark.

The following day, to get there at first light they will need to take off about 2 hours before dawn.

Don't they think? If they can't think why don't they ask why the planes land so late? :uhoh:

[GarageYears]

CVR questions A couple of questions about the CVR:

(a) Does the CVR record even when absolutely no voice input is being fed into it? For example, if there was complete silence for the last 5 hours of the flight, would it actually record this silence for the final 2 hours?

(b) If the CVR was disabled, would it continue to contain data from the previous 2 hours up to the point it was disabled? Or does disabling it cause the data to be wiped?

(a) Yes - it records continuously. The aircraft sounds are just as important as voice input. Typically there are 4 tracks - cockpit area mic, Capt mic, FO mic and I think 3rd Crew mic?

(b) Yes, but disabling it is only possible by pulling the CB, which in the T7 is in the E/E compartment. It is possible to erase the data, but that is only possible when on ground (WOW) and the engines are both shutdown.

[dmba]

Didnt mean to cause such a ruckus, but, are you saying they couldn't get locked out, or could they? Any questions are legitimate at this point.

It appears the reaction answered your question.

[500N]

PN

That BBC reporter obviously hasn't though through why the planes are sent when they are and the first one before dawn as it would answer her own question.

And it's not like the RAAF at Pearce are not available to ask.

[Neogen]

Batteries in cargo hold.. interesting, were they in forward or rear hold?

[SpannerTwister]

A while ago someone was asking about the "old style" FDR and someone mentioned that they used a "Stainless steel" tape.

Others then asked how long the data would survive on a stainless steel "tape".

Just to clarify, the stainless steel tape is actually a really long roll of stainless steel foil, not unlike your aluminium cooking foil, but slightly thicker, and of course, much stronger and about six inches wide.

There are several "styluses" (stylii ??) in the FDR and each one physically "scratches" a mark on the foil corresponding to the parameters it is recording.

The "tape" was replaced on a regular basis.

So, assuming the box basically survived the crash, that is it didn't physically melt in an extreme fire, the tape and the data recorded on it would last until the end of time, if not longer.

Suffice to say, any number of orders of magnitude longer than any other available technology!

[GarageYears]

Quick question: Are the Aussie P3s equipped for AAR?

The US P-8 is, but uses the flying boom type per US standard practice. If the answer is affirmative for the P-3s I assume they are drogue/hose, and therefore incompatible with US tankers?

AAR would obviously allow a lot long time on station....

[Pontius Navigator]

A sharp cabin crew could stay on O2 for hours with use of portable O2. Certainly outlast the pilots. Hiflo would keep them alive ( just) above 40k. Above 40k you need to pressure breathe. They would come round once aircraft descended to reasonable level.

You would need a massive quantity of portable O2. Consider a scuba cylinder will not last that long. Certainly it will last longer at height than at depth but not that long.

Our portable bottles, a lot lighter than a scuba cylinder, would last for perhaps 20 minutes at 20k.

[OleOle]

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Would Have Been Found If Communications Box Had $10 Upgrade (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-would-have-been-found-if-communications-box-had-10-upgrade-1441174)

"When the plane was still missing on Sunday (the day after it disappeared), our engineers looked at the network data and realised that the plane had been sending signals," Inmarsat Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin told IBTimes UK.

"We couldn't say what direction it had gone in, but the plane wasn't standing still because the signals were getting longer, i.e. further in distance from our satellite."


This I consider to be the first "official" statement, that
- distance data for all pings is available
- the penultimate ping came from a smaller distance than the last.

What I'm still wondering: Malaysians 772 business class is equipped with satphone. If this service was switched of deliberately, would there be anything in inmarsats logs indicating the point in time when this happened ?

Edit: --------------------
And here some more info on reconstructing the flight path (and the last ACARS burst):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-21/missing-plane-flew-steady-speed-over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html

[DaveReidUK]

Don’t recall Inmarsat giving details of altitude of pings, simply distance.I very much doubt that they can derive altitude, for two reasons.

The aircraft is a minimum of 36,000km from the satellite. So the difference between, say, FL280 and FL410 represents around 0.01% of the satellite-to-aircraft distance, which is very unlikely to be discernible given the tolerance on the ping-derived range.

But even if it was, how do you tell the difference between an aircraft on the X° curve and one slightly farther from the origin but at a higher altitude i.e. exactly the same slant height from the satellite?

[500N]

"AAR would obviously allow a lot long time on station...."

What about the crew ?

Others have already stated it is a tiring job, the 8 hours there and back can't be decreased, how long do you want them to be on continuous duty for when another aircraft can be on station to take over on a continuous basis during daylight hours ?

[aviator1970]

I have an ELT question.

On 121.5 if you crash, drop it or flick the switch or indeed if it activates itself due to a fault, the signal is instant.

What about on 406? It transmits data. Is that instant on activation also?
The difference between the 121.5 and 406.25 MHz is
1. when the search satellite passes over the ELT the 121.5 info couldn't be saved and would be transmitted down immediately, in case no LUT(local user terminal) was within the footprint of the satellite the information would be lost. 406.25 can be saved till a LUT comes within the satellite footprint.
2. The position is judged by the doppler shift generated by the satellite moving over the ELT. Accuracy of 121.5 is lower (said to be about 20 Sq miles) than 406.25 which has a higher frequency so the accuracy is higher ( said to be about 5 Sq miles)
3. the transmission contains a unique code which is part of an international database. the Tx contains this code and enables the identification of this tx source.
4. transmission time for all frequency is same, ie there is no delay in any frequency.

[oldoberon]

O

Didnt mean to cause such a ruckus, but, are you saying they couldn't get locked out, or could they? Any questions are legitimate at this point.

no one is saying anything either way!!

for future flight safety some questions are NOT legitimate.

[brika]

quote -That MAS chief answer didn't sound like a confirmation of batteries on board to me. GobonaStick

a few pages ago, did post that CEO answered a specific Q from SKY news - cargo list? - CEO said some LI batteries NOT big ones.

List with investigators - true.

apparently dropped mention of mangosteens now.:)

[Consol]

Quote from sysconx....
'I believe this to be a tragic event with all on board incapacitated. The Aircraft flew
on autopilot and landed on the surface of water with controlled descent and a flare without falling apart sinking to the bottom whole. The crew possibly tried to come to senses and mistakenly switched off the transponder, changed the digit from N to S on the Nav. With hypoxia setting in they though they were going to sleep and responded to the controller with "good night" sign off. All the passengers never once tried anything during the whole flight. Unaware or unconscious they never put up a fight to defend themselves. '

Once again it's amateur hour and all the FS types emerge.

Do you have the slightest notion of what you are talking about?

Are you saying that a B 777 reduced to emergency/RAT/ battery power took it upon itself to do a flapless, gear up autoland ditching in the Southern Ocean?

Do you think pilots in the middle of an emergency start user defining waypoints by latitude and longitude?

The amount of known facts in the public domain on this issue is tiny. The media has misreported the facts and added huge amounts of unfounded speculation. As for the Malayasian authorities, they appear to be the modern day aviation equivalents of the Keystone Cops. Please do not make it worse by putting up more stupid ideas entirely founded on stupidity. It is perfectly clear who knows what they are talking about (there have been some excellent contributions from some) and equally clear when someone knows absolutely nothing.

Rant almost over but one more thing, if that 'Razor...' character (the name should be a chilling warning on these matters) asks one more question about cockpit door procedures I'll be asking the mods to bar him from the site. This is NOT the place to discuss these matters for very obvious reasons.:ugh:

[Oro-o]

Quick question: Are the Aussie P3s equipped for AAR?

No, the P3 is not set up for AAR. It takes considerable crewing just to get to its endurance with on board fuel (~15hrs.).

[Lonewolf_50]

From a few pages back:
There may well have been many warships out there but the radar operators are trained to take notice of a contact if it threatens the ship, ie... Flies towards it. Single contacts at high altitude on a constant heading are usually deemed friendly and ignored.
Not necessarily tagged as "friendly" ... but most likely not tagged as "hostile." (Ref: old NTDS symbology, if you get my drift.) Yes, I am nitpicking :p ... but if the Malaysian Air Force was using a similar methodology, a tagged COMMAIR contact (on its original flight planned course) would not necessarily become "of interest" if it changed course(no major status change as seen by the guy on the scope late one Friday night). Mil Radar Operators would not necessarily have all of ATC's info in front of them. This is an issue for the Malaysian Air Force to address regarding cooperation with their ATC. FWIW: 9-11 seems to have increased the cooperation and communication in the US between ATC and the USAF. Sometimes, it takes a novel event to open some previously closed doors. Coordination among the various nations in SEA between MIL/ATC .. there are politics involved.

surely not A couple of (well probably 10-20 by now) pages back in this thread there was a post claiming some high ranking US Military official was 100% certain Pakistan was behind this and that within 24-48 hours it would become public. I think you refer to the March 18 interview of retired Lieutenant General Tom McInerney(USAF) by Sean Hannity on Fox News. He's free to act as an "expert" for the media without sanction, regardless of how credible his hypothesis is, or isn't. :p

wewereborndrunk
Its looking more and more likely that if the plane did fly south that the US and Australia know exactly where this plan flew and went down.
Not bloody likely. If they knew exactly, they'd not be wasting time looking for it. They are still in SEARCH mode.
All this searching by the Australians in the South Atlantic is a bluff.
It's not the South Atlantic. It's the Indian Ocean (certainly the southern part of the Indian Ocean). Your disrespect of our friends in Australia is IMO out of line. :mad: The Aussies ought to be applauded for their efforts.

@Garage Years: A few pages back, AP-3C AAR was a confirmed as not a capability.

Thought: Lithium ion batteries and mangosteens: a deadly combination in a cargo hold? :eek: (Sorry, thought I'd toss in a little humor).

@ RazorRay: respectfully request that you learn how to take a hint. ;)

[bono]

Some one raised a very pertinent question about discussing cockpit door security procedures on an open forum. I believe that information that can reveal crucial security procedures related to aircraft operations such as access to vital areas, disabling any aircraft equipment by any manner, interfering with flight/cabin crew, ability to tamper with any equipment, etc. whether related to MH370 incident or not, must not be allowed on this forum. Posters and moderators please use caution, as innocent questions could be masking less than friendly intentions.

[brika]

If they knew exactly, they'd not be wasting time looking for it. They are still in SEARCH mode.

Agree ..though sat spotted debris would have moved on or sunk by the time a/c arrived.

Ships not far behind...now if a Leeuwin class arrived and did some tricks...:hmm:

[currawong]

Any info on how search efforts are progressing in the northern arc?

[glendalegoon]

Bono:


I agree with you. Loose lips sink ships and crash planes.

so, anything you know from your work, keep it quiet.

[captplaystation]

Razoray,

I imagine you are familiar with the recent Ethiopian incident where the FO decided to divert (alone in the cockpit ) from Roma to Geneve, you have the answer to your question there I believe.

[captains_log]

Im still baffled there isn't a single piece of debris located. AF447 wasn't exactly a heavy impact and this still left some traces albeit 50 passengers or so, a tail section and other objects. I cant believe a single body has not been found? Nothing....im not insinuitating conspiracy theories here, but there must be something floating, i can't believe it sank in one piece with nothing floating to the surface?!

[Interested_Party]

Lots of good discussion but it is important that pilots do not give away security secrets about their operation. It can be seen in another part of PPRuNe that there have been close to 11 million views of this discussion.

[25F]

Re: "Please Do Not Reveal Critical Security Info".

Coming from the IT world, it is always interesting to me to see these attitudes, which we refer to as "security through obscurity", and consider to be not-very-secure.

In designing secure systems in the IT world we (most of us) take one thing for granted - that the "attacker" *does* have full knowledge of how the system operates - everything apart from those *actual* secrets (e.g. passwords) that protect the system.

Moving on from that, it is considered beneficial (by many) to expose the workings of any system to full public scrutiny, on the basis that any flaws will be more likely to be spotted.

Whether or not that is an appropriate model for the aviation world is a different matter.

But I *will* observe that these "operational secrets" are not going to be hard to come by for a well-funded adversary.

[atr-drivr]

captains_log,

With respect, an aircraft descending at almost 10,300 FPM with little or no forward airspeed AF would certainly be in the "heavy impact" category. In the Alaska MD case it hit the water almost flat according to pilots who watched it, they said it was a large splash and then pretty much disappeared. Debris came after...

[meekmok]

Captains Log
Im still baffled there isn't a single piece of debris located. AF447 wasn't exactly a heavy impact

Descending at 10,912 feet/min into the ocean is not a heavy impact????

[Lonewolf_50]

wes, the old "phantom page" thing seems to have returned due to the immense traffic this thread is getting. Have run into about 7 different phantom pages in the past few days.

[Pontius Navigator]

Im still baffled there isn't a single piece of debris located.

. . ., i can't believe it sank in one piece with nothing floating to the surface?!

In the former case the LKP was pretty accurate and the time late was small.

Here we have no real LKP and the time late is in days.

[brika]

Lonewolf 50

The aussies have 2 -Leeuwin and Melville albeit based on the other side of Australia.

...and they can radar the ocean floor and come up with a picture as if there was no water on the floor

Each ship is fitted with a STN Atlas 9600 APRA I-band navigational radar.[1] The vessels are fitted with a C-Tech CMAS 36/39 hull-mounted high-frequency active sonar.[1] In addition, the ships carry an Atlas Fansweep-20 multibeam echo sounder and an Atlas Hydrographic Deso single-beam echo sounder, and a Klein 2000 towed sidescan sonar array.[1] The sonars and echo sounders allow the vessels to chart waters up to 6,000 metres (20,000 ft) deep.[2] There are three sets of davits fitted; although normally used to carry the 10.7-metre (35 ft) Fantome class survey boats, they can be configured for other small craft.[1] In addition, they carry a RHIB and two utility boats.[1] The Leeuwins are fitted with a helicopter deck for an AS 350B Squirrel helicopter (detached from 723 Squadron), although lack long-term hosting facilities.[1] They are armed with two single 12.7 mm machine guns.[2] Compliments Wikipedia

There is hope yet.

[Alloyboobtube]

I can't see how the autopilot would stay on after loss of all generators, there's a time lag for the rat to work. Anybody tried it in the sim.
If the aircraft sank in one piece the air in the wings would not be enough to keep it a float , especially as the cabin fills.
The wings however would be crushed by the water pressure and then still with trapped air inside floated up.

[Lost in Saigon]

Some one raised a very pertinent question about discussing cockpit door security procedures on an open forum. I believe that information that can reveal crucial security procedures related to aircraft operations such as access to vital areas, disabling any aircraft equipment by any manner, interfering with flight/cabin crew, ability to tamper with any equipment, etc. whether related to MH370 incident or not, must not be allowed on this forum. Posters and moderators please use caution, as innocent questions could be masking less than friendly intentions.


Lots of good discussion but it is important that pilots do not give away security secrets about their operation. It can be seen in another part of PPRuNe that there have been close to 11 million views of this discussion.


I think you all severely underestimate what the "Bad Guys" already know.

Many First Class or Business Class passengers have first hand knowledge simply by observing what goes on in plain view.

For others it is very easy to Google for information and the basics of flight deck security is readily available online.


SKYbrary - Flight Deck Security (http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Flight_Deck_Security)
Emergency Flight Deck Access. Most security systems have the facility for emergency access to the flight deck; such systems have safeguards built in to allow the flight crew to prevent access, for example by building in delays to the door opening such that the flight crew, if not incapcitated, can overide the lock release.

[brika]

don't hear the CEO confirming there were batteries on this flight, only that the airline carries them in general

I have my own recording from the live conf. Replayed and checked. Agree he did not say "this", however he did not say "general" either. The question was very specific to the a/c and cargo and it's impact. Not easy to dodge that by generalities I would think. However may be wrong on this.:confused:

[oldoberon]

as you said the question was specific to mah370, so unless the answer was stated to be generic, it is reasonable to believe the answer was also specific to this aircraft.

[deadheader]

The aussies have 2 -Leeuwin and Melville albeit based on the other side of Australia.

and they can radar the ocean floor and come up with a picture as if there was no water on the floor

...There is hope yet.

I believe HMS Echo is steaming there, ETA next 48hrs(?); she has at least one sounding line (complete with lead weight) over the stern & a rumoured second over the starboard quarter but this has never been officially confirmed. In any case, IF there is anything down there she will find it.

[Oldpilot55]

I looked through the spec of the Leeuwin. There is nothing there that can see the seabed 6000 metres down, despite what Wikipedia says. Unless they have a deep tow system for the sidescan and a suitable depth rated sidescan fish which I believe is unlikely. Its not something a coastal survey vessel would normally need.

[island_airphoto]

All they need is a hydrophone on a long cord to listen for the black box ping.

[Pontius Navigator]

The wings however would be crushed by the water pressure and then still with trapped air inside floated up.

This is questionable.

If the water was not too deep and the tanks were not crushed by the water pressure then they may well break free and float. I believe that was the case with the RNlN Atlantic that crashed off the west coast of Scotland. IIRC parts of the aircraft indeed surfaced after a day or two.

In very deep water, unless the wings broke off early in the descent before the pressure crushed the tanks then maybe. If it went very deep then I would expect the tanks to be crushed.

The other question is what would float. If fuselage was largely undamaged then there may be little escape of buoyant material.

[brika]

She will certainly be an added asset.

Data shows she has a record of finding things - eg on central Mediterranean surveying the approaches to the ports of Tripoli and Khoms on the coast of Libya to improve Admiralty charts of the area. She was looking for wrecks that might be hazards to shipping. In 10 days she found the wrecks of one liner, two merchant ships, one landing craft, two fishing vessels, two barges and two large sunken pontoons. She also found at least half a dozen lost shipping containers. The landing craft is believed to be the Libyan Navy Polnocny-class landing ship Ibn Qis, which was burnt out on exercise in 1978.

Albeit in shallower waters but believe she has deeper water capability.

[blind pew]

meekmok
rate of descent. - not accurate.
if it had been in cruise when the aircraft or crew had a catastrophic event it would have been in trim with an ias of around 280knots. Assuming both engines flamed out at the same time then it would have descended at 280 knots plus a bit because of the lack of thrust vector from the underslung engines.
This probably gave a ROD in the order of 3000fpm..which might have fractionally decreased as it came into ground effect.
If this didn't happen and it went into a spiral descent it would have broken up in the air.

[flown-it]

Ancient aviator here though still current. But I haven't flown in SE Asia since the mid 60s and that was with the Grey Funnel Line!

So in the FIR in question ( Malacca Straits) could you file a flight plan and pick up your IFR clearance once airborne?:confused:

[DX Wombat]

there has been talk of "survivors". While I for one am hoping that this may be the case, is it really feasible?We can only hope. Although it would seem highly unlikely that there may be survivors we must not forget the Uruguayan Air Force flight (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Andes_flight_disaster) with the Rugby team on board, over the Andes. It was over two months before two survivors made it over the Andes to civilisation to let people know. It will depend very much on where and how the aircraft landed.

[Pace]

Pontius

The pressure on the surface is 14.7 PSI. Every 33 feet down in the ocean equates to 1 atmosphere or an additional 14.7 PSI.

Forget a solid container like a cylinder which are normally pressurised to 2000 PS1 but no where near the limits where they would implode.

Take a Balloon filled with air on the surface! At 33 feet or an additional atmosphere the volume of air would be half.

At 66 feet it would be a 1/3rd. At 99 feet 1/4 and so on.
So the given lifting capacity of a volume of contained air would decrease accordingly.

if you took said balloon down to 99 feet and filled it at the outside pressure then that balloon would expand as it rose to lighter pressures as would its lifting ability.

Hence why a diver at 99 feet who has to make an emergency ascent holding his breath will have to let air out of his lungs on the way up to save damage and death in the ascent.
At 20000 feet the pressure would be approx 8900 PS1 Compared to 14.7 PSI at the surface or 1,360 times the pressure of air on the surface

So A Relatively soft sealed structure like a wing would collapse fairly shallow unless the air was expelled and replaced with water.
A pressure cylinder would not collapse unit 8000 to 10000 feet down but that is only a guess

[Pablo26]

Has there been any information regarding MAS's use of air marshals, and whether any were on Flt. 370?

[galaxy flyer]

blind pew,

Are you B777 qual'd? I'm thinking, if t was in an ALT HOLD mode, it would, upon loss of power, try to maintain altitude until the stall warning when the A/P would disengage and it would start down trimmed at that speed.

[SOPS]

Air Marshals are an American idea generally I think.

[onetrack]

In a few hours it will be two weeks since MH370 disappeared. After two weeks, if it crashed into the Southern Indian Ocean, the savage seas in that area would have dispersed any remaining floating wreckage, and sunk most of it.

Chances of the "debris" spotted on the satellite pics being remnant icebergs, or an upturned hull of a wrecked boat? - Very High.
Chances of the "debris" being wreckage from MH370? - Very Low.
Chances of finding the aircraft in the Southern Indian Ocean when 14 days have passed and there's only a vague idea of its LKP? - Very, Very Low.

Malaysia Airlines MH370: No trace of debris in southern Indian Ocean after second day of searching - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-21/search-fails-to-find-possible-mh370-debris/5337908)

For those who have posted dream scenarios of "soft landings" or survivable landings in the mid-40 latitudes of the Southern Indian Ocean (equal to the Southern Ocean) - here's some vision of what it's like at sea level.
One day in three is fine, the wind is screaming most days, and the whitecaps and massive swell are constant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BhduxaGtNJ8

[SOPS]

Galaxy Flyer, I was about to say the same thing. I'm a 777 captain, and I'm sure if you are in ALT HOLD, it would go back to the yellow band, and then descend to maintain the speed at min manoeuvring . Well, that's how I think it would happen, must check it out in the sim.

[deadheader]

And for MH370 .. what do we have ... ?
Two supposed debris ... not a field ..... and the difference in days for the discovery is not so big ...
So .. I have a bad feeling and I'm not very optimistic ...

On the basis that pulling all comms, cutting an "interesting" path across FIR/radar/international boundaries [in what appears at least to be a deliberate act of avoidance] to then travel several 000's kms just to end up in the drink, albeit in the middle of nowhere, I'm inclined to agree with you at this stage.

[INT_QRU]

The Fansweep20 fitted to the RAN vessels is a shallow water system with a typical operating depth of 500m or so. From the surface in 3000m+ of water you need something around 12-24kHz to get any sort of decent compromise of swath width and resolution.

HMS Echo might have something more suitable

[Speed of Sound]

"We couldn't say what direction it had gone in, but the plane wasn't standing still because the signals were getting longer, i.e. further in distance from our satellite."

Inmarsat Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin

This information seems to have been missed by most posters on here. That would suggest to me that hourly pings were actually recorded and not overwritten.

[blind pew]

Galaxy nope
but it depends on what happens and what order it happens when the engines flame out...and what speed the generators go off line.
It could of course slow up in altitude hold until they stop producing usable electrical and hydraulic power.
Since there have been several theories (reports?) of varying altitude I am assuming that there wasn't anyone flying her.
What I was suggesting that if the crew were incapacitated (or incapable of controlling the aircraft due to electrical problems) then for the aircraft to stay airborne for 7 hours and then crash it would probably descend in a controlled fashion and not nose dive at 10000fpm+ as has been suggested.

[brika]

Chances of finding the aircraft in the Southern Indian Ocean when 14 days have passed and there's only a vague idea of its LKP? - Very, Very Low.

IF current search area is most likely...

The average depth of the Indian Ocean is 3,890 m (12,762 ft). Its deepest point is Diamantina Deep in Diamantina Trench, at 8,047 m (26,401 ft) deep located about 1,125 km west-South-West of Perth.
Light penetrates up to 660 feet (about where bathyl zone starts – it ends at about 6600 feet where temp drops to 4 degrees C)
The abyssal zone extends from 6600 feet to the bottom about 20,000 feet where the trenches begin. Pressures here range from 200 to 600 atmospheres. The waters though are serenely still.
(Note: The deepest descent by humans was in 1960 by Trieste (to bottom of the Challenger Deep in Marianas Trench in Pacific O – 35,810 feet – pressures of 16,000 pounds/sq inch – 1000 x sea level).

Re AF447, debris and bodies, still trapped in the partly intact remains of the aircraft's fuselage, were located in water depths of between 3,800 to 4,000 metres (2,100 to 2,200 fathoms; 12,500 to 13,100 ft). The Bayesian search theory was used by Metron to map the probable area. AUVs with side scan sonar were then used and found a fairly compact debris field 200x600 metres. The US ROV, Remora 6000, in its first dive found the FDR.

[oldoberon]

This information seems to have been missed by most posters on here. That would suggest to me that hourly pings were actually recorded and not overwritten.this was confirmed by AMSA on day 2 of the aussie searching and today by the malaysain minister in the daily briefing.


It is not news

[Speed of Sound]

Since there have been several theories (reports?) of varying altitude

Apart from the claimed PSR information of a climb to FL450 and a decent to FL295, there has been no confirmed reports of any varying altitude.

All we can say for definite is that if it continued flying for over 7 hours then most of that time must have been at or above FL300 for the claimed fuel on board.

[BOAC]

"We couldn't say what direction it had gone in, but the plane wasn't standing still because the signals were getting longer, i.e. further in distance from our satellite."

Inmarsat Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin - is there any link to this statement? Does Inmarsat know in detail what was happening to the signal elevation during the 7 hours? ?Assuming the reception angle is referenced to the earth vertical? I would assume from the above 'quote' that the elevation was increasing at some latter stage. If the information is refined enough it might be possible to re-create multiple paths of likely routes which when meshed with start pos would surely yield some clues? Initially we were told is was a '40 degree' signal, but that does not appear to be the whole story. Logically the elevation would decrease during the supposed 'turn back' and 'Malacca transit' - then what?

[Broadlands]

Little off topic but let us not get carried away with the capabilities of HMS Echo....

I spent 3 years on board and her sister ship as a civilian contractor providing support for the survey equipment and teaching Navy operators how to use it - (yes as a civilian - really!).

The vessel is fitted with survey equipment for up to 1000m depth. It is great at finding wrecks. A sidescan sonar can only see a 200m wide swathe and you can only survey at 4.5knots. Her hull mounted multibeam will see a much larger swathe, but it is not designed for detecting objects - just changes in seabed. The 'hit' rate per metre squared is too low.

While Echo is a valuable asset, but it is not magic and is limited by the equipment. What may be of more use is her ability to act as a command platform.

I now work as a Survey Party Chief running geophysical surveys (as well as a flight instructor) - so I do know this industry as well as flight instruction.

[OleOle]

Hunt for Jet Switches to Visual Search as Radar Empty - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-21/missing-plane-flew-steady-speed-over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html)

The engineers at Inmarsat were able to validate their estimates of the plane’s location by matching its position at 1:07 a.m., when it sent a burst of data through its Aircraft Communications and Reporting System, McLaughlin said. That final transmission on Acars included a GPS position that was used to calibrate the other estimates, he said.

Does that mean, the final ACARS transmission was already made via SATCOM?

If the ping at 1:11 was used for calibration, wouldn't it have been better to do the calibration against the position from secondary radar at 1:11. Transponder was switched off at 1:21.

That statement only makes sense if ACARS at 1:07 already went via SATCOM, which would mean ACARS via VHF was deliberately? disabled before.

[DX Wombat]

CodyBladewhy do you want to know the answer to this question? Probably best answered by the old saying "It is better to remain silent and be thought an idiot than open your mouth and dispel all doubt." I fear that today is the day Razoray forgot to borrow the family brain cell.
With any luck security services will be monitoring this thread and will be paying special attention to Razoray's posts.

[brika]

is there any link to this statement?

Here's one
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Would Have Been Found If Communications Box Had $10 Upgrade (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-would-have-been-found-if-communications-box-had-10-upgrade-1441174)

includes interesting bit about $10 upgrade to ACARS transmissions to send black box data in real time!

[Speed of Sound]

That statement only makes sense if ACARS at 1:07 already went via SATCOM, which would mean ACARS via VHF was deliberately? disabled before.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the VHF ACARS transmission uplinked from a ground station to the Inmarsat anyway so the fact that it is eventually received by the satellite doesn't necessarily mean it was sent by SATCOM?

[Yancey Slide]

ncludes interesting bit about $10 upgrade to ACARS transmissions to send black box data in real time!

It's not sending black box data, just position updates including GPS coords more frequently.

[MountainBear]

"We couldn't say what direction it had gone in, but the plane wasn't standing still because the signals were getting longer, i.e. further in distance from our satellite."

Inmarsat Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin

That's an odd choice of a word. I assume that by longer he means the time delays between each hourly ping, in milliseconds. If so, it is wrong to construe that delay with distance alone. Ping time can increase for multiple reasons not related to distance. One obvious confounding factor is interference of some type.

What would be interesting to do is some type of statistical smoothing. For example, if the plane was flying a consistent speed one would expect the increasing ping delay to follow a consistent, not random, pattern. OTOH if the ping delays were increasing at an increasing rate then distance alone might not explain it. The forensic calculations get complicated quickly having to take into account so many parameters. I'm going to assume that they go it right and have had many different eyeballs look at it. But I do not think we should treat the result of such calculations as a certainty, more like an educated guess.

[BOAC]

What would be interesting to do is some type of statistical smoothing. For example, if the plane was flying a consistent speed one would expect the increasing ping delay to follow a consistent, not random, pattern. OTOH if the ping delays were increasing at an increasing rate then distance alone might not explain it. The forensic calculations get complicated quickly having to take into account so many parameters. I'm going to assume that they go it right and have had many different eyeballs look at it. But I do not think we should treat the result of such calculations as a certainty, more like an educated guess. - don't forget a ?sinusoidal? rate of change if the TX crosses the concentric signal elevations.

brika - no more help in that link!

[FE Hoppy]

They have a very accurate position at 07 due to the VHF ACARS transmission. They use that datum with the next ping to work out the return time at that known range. High school maths then allows you to work out future ranges based on ping return times.

It's not rocket science although they are capable of that too!

[OleOle]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the VHF ACARS transmission uplinked from a ground station to the Inmarsat anyway so the fact that it is eventually received by the satellite doesn't necessarily mean it was sent by SATCOM?

I'm struggling with the concept too, but imho Chris McLaughlins statement only makes sense if there was some kind of SATCOM between the inmarsat satellite and the A/C, at 1:07 which was used to calibrate the signal return path between them.
An ACARS message between ground station and satellite wouldn't doe any good to calibrate the path between satellite and A/C transceiver.

[brika]

Yancey Slide #7045

IBT said "You really do need to know the height, distance, direction and a record of what has been going on the flight deck in a regular burst every 15 to 30 minutes," said McLaughlin. "If the box had been configured to send out these bursts, we would have located the plane by now."

Of course one also needs to prevent someone turning off transmissions otherwise its not am improvement

[Clear_Prop]

MountainBear:

By "getting Longer" he is referring to the fact the ping sends a timestamp with its ping, and the satellite adds its own timestamp on arrival; so in this case the difference between these timestamps (in milliseconds) would be increasing, implying a longer distance between the sender and the satellite.

[GarageYears]

I think some are getting confused between the INMARSAT link and ACARS... there isn't one, except if you pay for a certain service the SAT link will carry ACARS data.

REMEMBER folks the SAT transceivers on the aircraft are also voice capable, and the pings are used as a "stay-alive" status at the SAT-end of this link. In other words if the crew decided to make a SATCOM voice call, the satellite needs to be ready to relay the message.

What he's inferring I believe is that the last ACARS transmission DID include precise positional info, so the 1.11 SATCOM ping will closely correlate with the 1.07 ACARS report, and from thence the following pings can be traced/located (at least to ping arcs).

[OleOle]

They have a very accurate position at 07 due to the VHF ACARS transmission. They use that datum with the next ping to work out the return time at that known range. High school maths then allows you to work out future ranges based on ping return times.

But it doesn't make sense to take the GPS position at 1:07 for calibration, if for the next ping - which probably was exchanged at 1:11 - secondary radar position from 1:11 was available. Why then take the GPS fix from 4 minutes earlier and not the SR fix from that same minute ?

[Blue Amber]

Megyn Kelly´s interview with Mr. Chris Mclaughlin, Senior Vice President at Inmarsat; the most articulate / informative one to date.

Satellite company official speaks out on tracking missing jet after it lost contact | Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/20/satellite-company-official-speaks-out-on-tracking-missing-jet-after-it-lost/)

[TeachMe]

Quote:
"We couldn't say what direction it had gone in, but the plane wasn't standing still because the signals were getting longer, i.e. further in distance from our satellite."

Inmarsat Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin
That's an odd choice of a word.


I read that as Doppler shift away from the satellite .

[awblain]

The Inmarsat guy has six hourly ping times to work with. It should be clear whether the aircraft was heading towards his satellite or away from it over that time to an accuracy of somewhere in the region of 100 km per hour.

It could be confounded by a delay in the transponder reply, but there's no other factors that can affect it. Inmarsat must know a great deal about transponder delays, and they could run the same test on every flight since MH370 to see how wrong they are against actual flight tracks.

He has no information apart from the round-trip time to the aircraft, and his satellite over the Indian Ocean sees the whole Earth disk.

It is possible that some other mysterious geostationary satellite might have collected the signals too, which would help a lot in locating them, but I doubt the Inmarsat guy would talk about that on the TV.

If he had six hourly GPS positions reported in the replies, this uncertainty would all be gone. For a few cents per seat per trip, this would seem to be a good idea in future. Then again, the wreck of AF447 still took 2 years to find, despite much more comprehensive satellite signaling.

[FE Hoppy]

You need to ask him not me!

"On average once an hour"

[ukwomble]

I don't understand the endless confusion between SATCOM pings and ACARS data...

That statement only makes sense if ACARS at 1:07 already went via SATCOM, which would mean ACARS via VHF was deliberately? disabled before.
SATCOM pings and ACARS data transmissions are completely independent.

The article states that the ACARS data transmitted included GPS coordinates from the plane. It doesn't matter how it was sent - the GPS coordinates were part of the data.

Those coordinates were then used to 'calibrate' the interpretation of the SATCOM ping sent (independently) around the same time.

includes interesting bit about $10 upgrade to ACARS transmissions to send black box data in real time!
Interesting article.

He seems to be talking about an upgrade to the INMARSAT SATCOM box, not the ACARS system? Which would make sense since he works for INMARSAT...

[A2QFI]

Broadlands - you would know! I can't find the post but somebody said that HMS Echo is equipped with one, maybe two, sounding lines with lead weights on them. I thought these went out with Capt Cook and Admiral Nelson? Perhaps it was a bad joke!

[ana1936]

It is probable that each ping is actually an exchange satellite to aircraft and back, or vice versa. This is the only way to ensure a secure identity check within each ping.

It is not clear which end initiates the communication. There are conflicting statements by experts.

In any case it does mean that each individual ping operation does get longer to conclude as the distance from satellite increases.

Along the published southerly path the distance from the satellite is increasing for the last several pings, at least. However, other possible paths can be matched as well.

[oldoberon]

- is there any link to this statement? Does Inmarsat know in detail what was happening to the signal elevation during the 7 hours? ?Assuming the reception angle is referenced to the earth vertical? I would assume from the above 'quote' that the elevation was increasing at some latter stage. If the information is refined enough it might be possible to re-create multiple paths of likely routes which when meshed with start pos would surely yield some clues? Initially we were told is was a '40 degree' signal, but that does not appear to be the whole story. Logically the elevation would decrease during the supposed 'turn back' and 'Malacca transit' - then what?

yes there is and if you had bothered scrolling back a few pages you would have found posted by cyanr

Satellite company official speaks out on tracking missing jet after it lost contact | Fox News (http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13954206497836&key=1e857e7500cdd32403f752206c297a3d&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-348.html&v=1&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-347.html&libId=ac810e08-18eb-49a0-8e32-e68f228b2f62&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fworld%2F2014%2F03%2F20%2F satellite-company-official-speaks-out-on-tracking-missing-jet-after-it-lost%2F&title=Malaysian%20Airlines%20MH370%20contact%20lost%20-%20Page%20348%20-%20PPRuNe%20Forums&txt=Satellite%20company%20official%20speaks%20out%20on%20tra cking%20missing%20jet%20after%20it%20lost%20contact%20%7C%20 Fox%20News)

[me myself and fly]

Malaysian Airlines MH370: live - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10710250/Malaysian-Airlines-MH370-live.html)

16.38 The first was a message delivered by the cockpit at 1.07am, saying that the plane was flying at a cruising altitude of 35,000 feet. This message was unnecessary as it repeated a call that had already been delivered six minutes earlier.
Steve Landells, a former British Airways pilot who flew Boeing 777s, told The Telegraph that this second message was not required but he did not regard it as suspicious.
“It could be as simple as the pilot forgetting or not being sure that he had told air traffic controllers he had reached the altitude,” he said. “He might be reconfirming he was at 350 [35,000 feet]. It is not unusual. I wouldn’t read anything into it.”
16.25 BREAKING: The Telegraph has obtained the transcript of the last 54 minutes of communication aboard Flight MH370.
Related Articles
How MH370 vanished - and how it could have been avoided 21 Mar 2014
The final communication between the Malaysia Airlines flight cockpit and ground control can be revealed, from its taxi on the runway to its final message at 1.07am of “Alright, good night”.
The Telegraph's Jonathan Pearlman has seen the full communication record of MH370, including the crucial moments in the lead-up to the disappearance of the Boeing 777 and its 239 passengers. It reveals the messages relayed between the cockpit and air traffic controllers during the period when the plane is believed by investigators to have already been sabotaged.
More to follow...

[dnrobson]

These true experience revelations about the discomfort of low level S&R are most enlightening. There is no way you can get this kind of insight from conventional media sources. So let me express my thanks to all you professional posters whose original comments keep me coming back to this site every day.
:D

[OleOle]

SATCOM pings and ACARS data transmissions are completely independent.

The article states that the ACARS data transmitted included GPS coordinates from the plane. It doesn't matter how it was sent - the GPS coordinates were part of the data.

Those coordinates were then used to 'calibrate' the interpretation of the SATCOM ping sent (independently) around the same time.

Another try, and then i will shut up :) :

To calibrate the signal path between satellite <-> A/C transceiver, you have to know the exact position of the A/C when a SATCOM transmission is made. My assumption - which may be wrong - is that precise secondary radar fixes where available until 1:21. If the SATCOM transmission, that was used to calibrate the signal path, was made at any other time than 1:07, it would make much more sense to take the secondary radar fix from the time of SATCOM transmission to calibrate the signal path.

[TelcoAg]

It is not clear which end initiates the communication. There are conflicting statements by experts.

The Inmarsat Exec said the statement "the satellite wants to see if you still want service." That indicates to me that the satellite, not the SATCOM, initates the ping. It sounds like, after 60 minutes of silence, the Satellite wants to confirm that you are still on it's network. If you don't respond, it takes you off of its active device registry until you come back online and initiate contact.

[awblain]

Sadly, I think all Inmarsat has to work with is the time of flight of radio waves between their satellite and the aircraft on the hour, plus the uncertain time lag required for the aircraft's satcom box to reply. My understanding is that for a few dollars more, Inmarsat would have an hourly GPS position transmitted from the aircraft in their archives.

The South China Sea information allows Inmarsat to be confident that the 0100 signals were consistent with a "red arc" that goes through that area.

As time goes by, the chances of finding anything in the ocean seems to be fading.

Hopefully, agencies that listen to radio signals from a high orbit, and scan the ocean surface for radar reflections can have a look back through their records and perhaps add something to the conversation.

If any commercial or military imaging satellites happened to be taking pictures of the Indian Ocean at the time (why would they? although Digital Globe seem to have been on 16th - perhaps in response to an order) then there's a possibility that MH370 might have accidentally been spotted traveling through the frame.

With a lot of effort, once it was daylight, it might also be possible for weather satellite data to be handled carefully to look for signs of a contrail in its wake, especially since it took a lonely route.

Perhaps some whole-Earth IR missile launch warning satellite images could be searched in the same way for some warmth from the engines.

Was there really no sign of anything out there on the Australian OTH radar?

[172driver]

I've been thinking....

We all know that on every flight there is a certain number of phones that don't get switched off or put into 'flight mode'.

Now, these phones would try to lock on to a ground-based station during the flight. We've had this discussion here before and know it's perfectly feasible from 30+k feet.

IF the aircraft really headed out into the Indian Ocean, then it must have overflown Malaysia and Indonesia. Does anyone know if the Telcos in these two countries checked their logs for the night in question? If (and again, a big IF) any of the phones on board had tried to lock on to one or more of the cells in either country, then we would at least have proof of two things:

1) MH370 really did fly southwest
2) the time of passing overhead these points

Btw, same goes for the - now largely discounted - northern route.

[MountainBear]

don't forget a ?sinusoidal? rate of change if the TX crosses the concentric signal elevations.I agree, this is what I meant by it gets complicated quickly. There's a lot of different parameters that can influence ping time beside distance alone.

Let me give a wild example that I personally witnessed a number of years ago in a related context. Someone had put a wifi relay in a tree with a clear line of sight to a bedroom window in the guest house. During the day the guests kept complaining of congestion on the line, despite the fact they were the only ones at home. It was a puzzle because the ping time got steadily worse during the day and then quickly recovered at night. A full wifi site analysis was done and no radio interference was found.

The culprit that was eventually discovered? The wind. Wait, how can wind affect the radio waves? It can't, directly. But what the wind was doing was blowing the small branches of the tree around. The location experienced a great deal of diurnal heating and as the heat increased during the day so did the wind and so did the amount of interference from the tree branches and so the ping time increased during the day and fell off at night in rhythm to the wind. The owner of the guest house had put the wifi relay in a tree because he felt it was unsightly and so long as there was no wind his plan worked correctly.

The point--radio waves are a tricky thing. In a normal situation there are not many causes of interference between an airplane at 35K and a satellite. But nothing about this situation appears normal. So I think it is something of a leap of faith to say that increasing ping times=increasing distance. It's a decent assumption but we've already seen how other reasonable assumptions have turned out to be wrong.

The Inmarsat Exec said the statement "the satellite wants to see if you still want service." That indicates to me that the satellite, not the SATCOM, initates the ping. It sounds like, after 60 minutes of silence, the Satellite wants to confirm that you are still on it's network. If you don't respond, it takes you off of its active device registry until you come back online and initiate contact.


Yes, that's the typical set up. I'd be surprised if it was any other way.

[BOAC]

yes there is and if you had bothered scrolling back a few pages you would have found posted by cyanr - well, I went back 5 and lost heart - it was 6 back. Also if you had bothered to scroll back you would have seen that both brika and Blue Amber had already answered. .....and it is cynar ....but thanks anyway.

So I think it is something of a leap of faith to say that increasing ping times=increasing distance. It's a decent assumption but we've already seen how other reasonable assumptions have turned out to be wrong. -indeed, but IF there is more precise information it should be possible to analyse and form a reasonable assessment. It would be nice to see a bit more from Inmarsat.The South China Sea information allows Inmarsat to be confident that the 0100 signals were consistent with a "red arc" that goes through that area. - yes, but what makes it more likely that the southern arc is in focus? Can this be deduced from the Inmarsat data or is there (probably) some more int to point at that arc?

[awblain]

172,

Phantom phone tie ins from air to ground could perhaps rule out the "Northern Route". The phone providers of the missing passengers should know whether anything was received or sent from a live phone after take off.

In any case, a better look at the Thai and Malaysian (and Singaporean and Indonesian?) radar records should eventually be able to work out whether the reported zigzags over the Andaman Sea actually happened.

However, there's no mast to talk to from a cellphone all the way from Java to Antarctica on the "Southern Route", and while Three Letter Agencies are supposed to be able to listen to calls from a distance, a phone inside a 777 is not nearly as clear to listen to as a phone outside a 777.

[awblain]

BOAC,

I think the only thing that rules out the "Northern Arc" is the lack of any reported radar returns that way consistent with a mystery 777, and also a lack of a wrecked 777 out that way, but then there's a lot of nothing in central Asia.

It could have avoided radar coverage on an early weekend morning, and be waiting to be found in a hole in the desert or mountains somewhere.

But if it impacted on land, you might expect to have heard from the ELT beacon?

[172driver]

In any case, a better look at the Thai and Malaysian (and Singaporean and Indonesian?) radar records should eventually be able to work out whether the reported zigzags over the Andaman Sea actually happened.

Well, that's part of my point. So far we assume the observed radar return was MH370. Connecting phone lock-ons to this route would eliminate any doubt.

[ana1936]

Thanks TelecoAg. It does make much more sense to me that the satellite initiates the ping each hour.

In any case, the satellite has to send a message and get a return message as part of the ping exchange in order to be sure of the identity of the plane. Typically it would encrypt a random number using the specific plane's public key and check that the supposed plane was able to decrypt that message and return it encrypted with the satellite's public key.

The satellite's accurate clocks can then record timestamps for the sending and receiving parts of that message.

The journey of the message each way would take about 130 millseconds while it would only take 1-2 millseconds for the plane's equipment to process the incoming message and send a response back. Thus most of the 262 milliseconds difference in timestamps would be travel time.

This gives a pretty good estimate of distance between satellite and plane.

[awblain]

Mountain Bear,

But you were looking through a tree in that example, and there are none between a 777 and the satellite.

The "ping time" in that example I think is also a time required to transmit a certain amount of data across your network, so you were measuring a data rate being slowed by the whirling tree, and not a time of flight/path length increased with time like Inmarsat were.

Inmarsat have many hundreds of thousands of flight records that they can test their method against. I'm sure they wouldn't broadcast faulty information.