Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[jugofpropwash]

As I said before, we know that the FO did not follow proper procedures with respect to smoking and access to the cockpit so there is no reason to suppose that his RT procedures were any more correct.

I'm still trying to figure out why the FO is getting the blame for this? Isn't the Captain in charge of the airplane? Given what I've learned about Asian culture on Pprune, I can't imagine that the FO just decided on his own to allow the girls into the cockpit. I really don't even see him questioning a decision made by the Captain.

Now, maybe he should have questioned it - or at least reported it - but recently three "junior" pilots allowed a plane to be flown into the ground without saying a word, so....

[Sheep Guts]

The Satellite antenna on the B777 is at the rear top of fuselage above Economy cabin. It comprises a High Gain Antenna and a separate Low Gain Antenna both have Line Amplifier/ Diplexers boxes connected. Also connected in the same area are SDU satellite data unit and BSU and other boxes are all part of the Satellite system. All in an area behind wing and well away from the Flight Deck or nose of the Aircraft. Probably for wave propagation interference reasons.
So it's fair to say the Satellite unit is autonomous to the rest of the avionics in the aircraft.
With that in mind it's probably plausible. That it could transmit handshakes by itself, as wreckage in the sea of a broken up airframe.

Any B777 techs out there, have an idea?

[Track5milefinal]

Time of India reports: Practice runways for Male, Indian, Sri Lankan airports and 1 US military base found on seized flight simulation software.

What do you all make of this??

Microsoft's Last version of Flight Simulator had over 24,000 airports including International air force bases... nothing to rave on home about.

[ZAZ]

LOL
Runway can take a 737 or BAE111

[Airbubba]

What do you all make of this??

I can make a hat, a brooch, or a pterodactyl...

Can you provide a link or quote for this report? The captain's sim may just have a large generic database, world wide charts now easily fit on a 16 GB tablet computer. Many legacy FMS boxes still have memories measured in megabytes, not gigabytes however. I'm thinking he had at least a 256 GB SSD drive in his computer from the Facebook pictures.

Edit...

Just found this:


Malaysia Cops find five Indian Ocean practice runways in MH370 pilot’s simulator, BH reports

March 18, 2014

KUALA LUMPUR, March 18 ― Investigators have discovered the runways of five airports near the Indian Ocean loaded into Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s home-made flight simulator, a Malay daily reported today.

An unnamed source told Berita Harian that while it was too early to make any conclusions on the new finding, it was still considered an important element in the probe on the whereabouts of the plane and its 239 people.

“The simulation programmes are based on runways at the Male International Airport in Maldives, an airport owned by the United States (Diego Garcia), and three other runways in India and Sri Lanka, all have runway lengths of 1,000 metres.

“We are not discounting the possibility that the plane landed on a runway that might not be heavily monitored, in addition to the theories that the plane landed on sea, in the hills, or in an open space,” the source was quoted as saying.

Although Defence Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein denied yesterday that the plane had landed at US military base Diego Garcia, the source told the daily that this possibility will still be investigated based on the data found in Zaharie’s flight simulator software...

Cops find five Indian Ocean practice runways in MH370 pilot?s simulator, BH reports | Malaysia | The Malay Mail Online (http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/cops-find-five-indian-ocean-practice-runways-in-mh370-pilots-simulator-bh-r)

[*Lancer*]

ZAZ, the runway on Christmas Island is easily big enough. It's not a scheduled operation :rolleyes:

[cockpitvisit]

Time of India reports: Practice runways for Male, Indian, Sri Lankan airports and 1 US military base found on seized flight simulation software.

What do you all make of this?? :sad:

Microsoft Flight Simulator contains thousands of runways "out of the box".

Maybe they meant "add-on airport packages" - you buy them to get more detailed visual scenery around certain airports. It tells absolutely nothing - you don't really need these bells and whistles to practice landings, and every serious flight simulator enthusiast will have a lot of such scenery packages installed.

Microsoft Flight Simulator doesn't have a built in FDR, so I doubt they will find out exactly what he was doing with it. They might be able to figure out the rough areas where he was flying the last time by looking at the "last accessed" timestamp of individual scenery files. But that's pretty much all you can figure out - unless he he explicitly recorded his simulator flights.

[DuneMile]

Two-thirds of passengers on board the missing Malaysian Airlines plane have been cleared of any links to terrorism, according to officials.

Missing Plane: Families In Hunger Strike Threat (http://news.sky.com/story/1227589/missing-plane-two-thirds-of-passengers-cleared)

[Wally Mk2]

This thread is now very hard to follow with multiple in depth posts covering every 'guess' known to mankind, I mean since the jet went missing there's been approx 1 post every 3 mins, 24 hrs a day. Christ is this the biggest aviation mystery/event since 9/11 or what?

All I wish now is for the relatives to find some sort of peace with all this
Can't imagine what they are going thru:-(.

It's the biggest guessing game I've seen/heard in aviation since God knows when!


Wmk2

[Ornis]

Persistent airborne position reports would allow aircraft to be tracked but not necessarily alter the outcome of an occurrence for the passengers.

From a safety point of view, better for an airline to spend the money on pilot training.

[Blake777]

From the New Straits Times:

"One Orion commenced searching the Indian Ocean to the north and west of the Cocos Islands yesterday. The next sweep will take place this evening as an AP-3C Orion transits from the Cocos Islands to RAAF Base Pearce in western Australia," he said in a statement yesterday."
Abbott said he also informed Najib that Australia would make additional maritime surveillance aircraft available to extend the effort to locate MH370.

It's a despairingly isolated and vast area to cover.

NST also reports that Malaysian investigators are currently favouring the theory that MH370 headed north.

[captainjim47]

According to historical data this flight normally loses ATC contact around the area of the last report. Most flights regain contact just short of the Vietnamese coast. It was coming right at the time of last report, towards the oil rig. That lends credence to his claim the plane was coming straight at the rig, not moving left or right from his perspective. I would imagine the ASW towed array sonar on one of the A-B class destroyers could pick up the pinger if they ran down that bearing line to the oil rig. Anyone know what frequency that thing pings at?

[firenine]

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - Australian Press Conference

DJu_pm40Xyo

[nitpicker330]

Sheep Guts..

The Low gain and High gain antennas require a couple of things to work--

1/ ADIRU aligned so the sat dish knows where to look for the satellites
2/ Power supply from the Aircraft

So NO it would not work on a crashed Aircraft in the Sea unless the above requirements were met!! Yes not likely I'd say.

p.s. Low gain for data, high gain for data and voice.

[ana1936]

Australian search: description and maps

Malaysia Airlines MH370: AMSA to coordinate new search 3,000 kilometres south-west of Perth - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-18/australia-takes-charge-of-multinational-search/5328904)

[B777FD]

Microsoft's Last version of Flight Simulator had over 24,000 airports including International air force bases... nothing to rave on home about

You can save a flight so you can load it and be straight on approach or finals etc. perhaps flights were saved for approaches or landings at certain airports. That would raise the significance somewhat.

[nitpicker330]

I certainly hope Boeing is running flight simulations using MH Aircraft spec data to calculate exactly where they think it would run out of Fuel considering all the data they know about the flight profile from Radar traces. ( FL295 over Penang, 5,000' later on etc )

They should be able to see the expected Range.

[ana1936]

AMSA media release with links to search area maps.

https://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/18032014MH370Update2.pdf

(It seems you can not show their maps directly on PPRuNe.)

[Wantion]

Nice find ana thanks for sharing ! :ok:

[Mach2point7]

The information below was extracted from "Understanding Satellite Pings" to be found at: TMF Associates MSS blog » Understanding ?satellite pings?? (http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2014/03/15/understanding-satellite-pings/)

Can anyone confirm that this chart was indeed released today by the Malaysian Government ?? Or is it somebody's interpretation ?? The reference to "range at minimum speed" is perplexing.

"UPDATE (Mar 17): This picture was released by the Malaysian government today. It shows clearly that the ends of the arcs were determined based on the minimum and maximum speed of the aircraft, and were not based on the overlap of the Inmarsat satellite coverage areas."

http://tmfassociates.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MH370_Mar17.jpghttp://tmfassociates.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MH370_Mar17.jpg

[Neogen]

Search area for 18th March:

http://i.imgur.com/tDE0hfd.png

[techgeek]

Is anyone else troubled by the lack of accurate empirical data released to date?


Was ACARS log-off received?
Was AMSS log-off message received?
Was ADS logged on and contract established and, if so, for which reports?
The pings were sent to AES
The pings were received from AES
6 pings - list UTC for each ping
1 "ping position plot" from last ping released - where are the other 5?
Is Inmarsat unable to preserve details of past pings and, if so, how do we know 6 pings occurred ?
Either "pre-programmed waypoint(s)" were or were not reported by ADS contract over ACARS and, if not, how do we know this?
Did both Vietnamese and Malaysian primary radar paint a/c altitude excursions?
If FL430+ confirmed, did pilot practice 777 flight on home sim in coffin corner?
There must be a map of locations wreckage is known to NOT be located!


Every one of these items can be determined without FDR or CVR. I believe these things have been known to investigators for days now. :ugh:

[D.S.]

So if the new seemingly supported (at least multiple organizations verifying it through "unidentified sources") news is true, then a couple things might be able to be put together to come up with an explanation for another glaring, and rather inexcusable, issue.

First, we (might) now have verification that initial Turn/WP change was actually programed into the system prior to 1:07

Then handover contact with plane at 1:19 or 1:22* which was at least rumored/questionably "verified" to be Co-Pilot
(*both times are frustratingly seemingly "confirmed," as is typical for absolutely everything the Malaysian Government says)

We also have the very unconfirmed but possible contact with Japan-Bound plane/MH88(?) saying they spoke to who they believed was the Co-Pilot shortly after 1:30 (if it is true, it is very reasonable that pilot was told by investigators to say absolutely nothing more about it while the investigation is ongoing. It is also likely a recording of said communication exists, and is now in the investigators hands. Again, if it is true, at least)

Could those things (and who knows what else that hasn't leaked) possibly be the reason behind the simulator sitting unchecked for at least 9 days?

Maybe they only took said simulator now because of the public outrage over the seemingly unexplainable and inexcusable ignoring of possible evidence as to the whereabouts of the passengers. Was their not doing so prior because they already had a solid reason to believe the pilot was not the one who was even in question here when they were tossing around their possible involvement?

More ifs and maybes than I usually like to work with, but makes sense while merely connecting some suspected/semi-confirmed/possible facts without conflict to absolutely everything else we do know.

I would gain back quite a bit of respect for the Malaysian Government if the above was true. And I do really, really want at least the Pilot to be clear in this - he seems like a truly fantastic guy from what little I know about him

[ana1936]

Just a reminder of my own maps posted on PPRuNe from last Saturday …

http://www.csse.uwa.edu.au/~mark/personal/MH370/australia.png

This showed where the red ping circle meets the blue max range circle, outside the white JORN radar circle.

So, if you look at the AMSA search area, (link posted above) you see they are searching exactly that area.

(Although ``exactly'' is a bit of a misnomer for such a large deserted search area).

[Blake777]

Hmmm... Does that search area map for the Australians give a hint that JORN may have been on??

[The Wawa Zone]

In regards to 'runways' on the sim:

An unnamed source told Berita Harian that while it was too early to make any conclusions on the new finding.

Then why, pray tell, release the information now in this form. Either the 'unnamed source' is looking for something, anything, to tell someone, or this is part of some attempt to blame the owner of the sim.

This is very much in keeping with the controlled release of drivel that has characterised the last 11 days.

BOSSIE; I'd prefer the .45 Glock any day !

[clayne]

Hmmm... Does that search area map for the Australians give a hint that JORN may have been on??

Red circle meets the blue circle. Nothing to do with JORN.

[D.S.]

techgeek (http://www.pprune.org/members/354161-techgeek) said

Is anyone else troubled by the lack of accurate empirical data released to date?It is worse than just that - so many of the actual known facts are only confirmed facts depending on the Malaysian Press Conferences you happened to have caught. Everything they say is seemingly kinda-facts, with their details fluctuating slightly just enough to leave plenty of speculation. (and every so often they throw in some good old flat out contradiction for good measure!)

I can honestly say I have never seen anything like it before. Just mindbogglingly frustrating, really

[onetrack]

If MH370 actually did go into the Indian Ocean, in the region of the latest search area - then it's highly likely a % of any floating, surviving wreckage will almost certainly, eventually wash up onto the West Australian coast, due to constant prevailing S/Westerly surface winds.

[ana1936]

Searching around where the red and blue circle meets tells us either that JORN was on, or that for some other reason they think (or guess) that the plane did not zig zag around much after leaving the Andaman Sea. It just went straight (almost due) south at its cruising speed of about 900 km/h.

And went into the water during the hour or so after 8:11am.

[nitpicker330]

The fact that Australia have now committed 3 x P3's 1 x C130 1 x 737 Wedgetail the Kiwis 1 x P3 and the US 1 x P8 Poseidon to the search SW of Perth must say something about what info they now have.

[onetrack]

D.S. - Put yourself in the Malaysians position. This is their 9/11. They have never had to deal with anything like this before.
MAS has an excellent safety record, they're not African cowboys, despite the occasional laxity in procedures.
They're obliged to hand out some info, they're no doubt working with conflicting basic data that has to be analysed and re-analysed to ensure erroneous information is discarded.

They have to give some hope to the relatives, whilst not giving away crucial investigation lines that often involve military secrecy. It's kinda like tight rope walking, but with no end to the rope.
I don't envy them, particularly when you consider the amount of skill in planning and deceit, that went into this disappearance. It's unparalleled in the history of aviation, or any other transportation field, for that matter.

The additional horror will come when the lawyers start, and when MAS goes under, due to the run-on effect of this event on its image and revenue.

[harrryw]

Australia (and the US ) have massive submarine detection arrays covering all that area so if the plane did hit the sea there I am sure there would be some indication.
And whoever the Captain's inlaws are does not seem to need admitting. There is no secret to his (and many other people's) political leaning.

[Blake777]

Apologies ana1936 - your post crossed mine. I was interested also in the fact that the first search area, for which I haven't seen a map, was north and west of Cocos Islands. Now they have moved to the published SAR which is where the blue and red circles intersect. It just does bring up the question that they have chosen currently to eliminate waters closer to WA, which is likely not to be coincidental.

Thanks for your work on the mapping by the way - extremely helpful.

[wdew]

Clasping at straws but the hot GLEX activity around Ghanzi in Afghan could be related ?????????

[butterfly68]

The history tells that when something so mysterious happens it's a normal tendency to try to find to solve it with complicated or even sci-fi solutions,( let's see Amelia Hearhart disappearance in 1937, it was even told that she could have been captured by the Japanese soldiers and kept prisoner, but what probably happened was just a crash in the sea because the airplane run out of fuel). So what I am thinking is that also in this case it could be more simple then what the whole world is wondering. Electrical failure, maybe fire, ACARS and Transponder failes, maybe smoke or an Hypoxia situation recognised by the crew which immediately tried to turn back to KL, tried to insert new data in the FMS ( under hypoxia you think you are doing right when in reality you do crazy things)and this could explain the erratic behaviour of the plane and then it just flew until it run out of fuel. :(

( by the way, I'm not familiar with the ACARS system, is there any alarm that the crew will receive in case it fails suddenly on its own? can the crew notice it in case it happens?)

[DespairingTraveller]

The "evidence", that this accident has a "criminal" background is so rediculously "thin", I really don´t understand this whole discussion.Quite. As far as I understand events, the "criminal" interpretation all stems from a statement (by the Malaysian PM?) that ACARS and transponders were deliberately switched off.

As far as ACARS is concerned, this was subsequently clarified to confirm that an expected transmission simply did not occur. I don't think anything has been said about the transponder.

Absent a deliberate switch-off, it's difficult to see what has been confirmed so far that is inconsistent with an (as yet not understood) mechanical or electrical failure, possibly a fire, which culminated in loss of crew, after they had attempted a turn back to attempt a landing somewhere. The aircraft then flying on in whatever condition of autopilot or trim it was left in, until it met its end at fuel exhaustion. It's happened before.

And even a deliberate switch-off doesn't prove criminal intent...

And yet the entire world seems now to be gripped in a fever of speculation and hysteria about mysterious cargoes, government plots, hyper-terrorists, concealed landing strips, terrain-hugging airliners and Bond-like super-villains - presumably stroking white cats in high tech conference rooms!

I don't get it.

[SOPS]

Please stop this non standard RT talk. I got handed over last night and the controller said to us, and I quote, "XXXXX 456 call XXX on 123.45. Have a good flight, see ya" it happens all the time, nothing suspicious about it at all.

[Pontius Navigator]

SOPS, if it is my post to which you refer, you have picked up the wrong inference. RT was just another possible indicator of the professional standards by that FO and tolerated by at least two captains.

BJ,

The RT is only one aspect and a minor one.

[ajamieson]

Question. When the New York Times reports that the left turn was ",,,carried out through a computer system that was most likely programmed by someone in the plane's cockpit who was knowledgeable about airplane systems..." - is that a convoluted way of suggesting that the auto-pilot had not been disengaged?

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

Please stop this non standard RT talk. I got handed over last night and the controller said to us, and I quote, "XXXXX 456 call XXX on 123.45. Have a good flight, see ya" it happens all the time, nothing suspicious about it at all.

Maybe you're missing the point - it's what he said in reply (and what they said to him at that point that prompted his response) that we're interested in. Would you not readback the frequency and your callsign before the "good night, bye, tarra, ciao, see ya" bit ?

If ATC had already given him the frequency and had it read back, then they said something like "by the way, I'll see you at the game next week", then you might say "All right, good night". But if the good night was in response to the frequency handover it was just a bit lax that's all ;)

[Mesoman]

Today's search pattern is a funny shape. Anyone know why?

The press kit for the Aussie SAR operation for 18th is at: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B4w6RpGjTiQpTUxRZzVULTRNaWc&usp=sharing&tid=0B4w6RpGjTiQpM1dxMzdSTHRMeW8 (previously posted in this thread).

[Mahatma Kote]

Please stop this non standard RT talkI tuned into WMKK ATC this morning (mid morning Malaysia time) and the very first thing I heard was 'Roger that"

[a320--]

'Good Night' + 'Good Morning' it's said all the time with ATC here in Asia when not in a busy area. Nothing to be suspicious about.

[msjh]

Quote:
1995 era code on an aircraft is perfectly hackable; quite easy in fact.
I am not sure how you reached this conclusion but nothing could be further from the truth. In fact substantial analytical work went into the n-version (voting) Ada development, including Z/VDM specifications and absolutely strict and correct interfaces (this was for the 744 and I am sure has been enhanced and developed since).

I spent time working with the 744 FADEC Software so I do know at least a little about what I talk about (as well as having time on the 737 Classic).

To criticize code in the sense of vintage is a complete misnomer. Software tools in the mid 80's were starting to get very serious in terms of system provability and verification, and the Ada compilers were excellent in picking up all sorts of nasty things (static and dynamic). All the development teams were isolated and all produced seriously good provable engineering.

Yes, time has moved on since those early days, but essentially most of the work stands intact as well it should.

Rogue data insertion into the architecture would be completely non-trivial.

I completely agree with the points you make about the quality of the code. It is difficult to have a debate in an open forum for obvious reasons. However, I stand by my claim.

[MATELO]

Best quote in 11 days.

If the plane is to be found it will be by experts doing their jobs . . . Not by unprofessionals speculating where it is

[Dusthog]

If the transponder stopped transmitting, ATC is always quick to let you know. Nothing was said from ATC about this, not even when handed over to Vietnam Control :rolleyes:

[sandos]

Will there be any (Malaysian) press conference today?

[DespairingTraveller]

It just niggles me a little that if you join those "last ping" arcs the curve goes through the last active reported position S of Vietnam to a reasonable accuracy. Yes I realise if the aircraft had sat ditched and powered for seven hours something should have been found. So not a very plausible scenario. But still it niggles.
Me too. It does niggle.

Presumably the SAR operation would not have been activated until the aircraft was overdue Beijing at 0630, plus some slight margin. I believe that's the norm. Sunrise wasn't until shortly after 0600 that day, anyway. The operation had been activated by the time of the MAS press release at 0724, but the last "ping" was at 0811, little more than three-quarters of an hour later. They'd have been very, very lucky to have overflown the incident site in the first hour or so of the search, even if they were airborne and on station by then. Yes, I know the sea area is shallow, but human beings miss things, and stranger things have happened.

Publicly at least, the abandonment of the search east of the peninsular seems to have been driven by the Malaysian military radar contacts, which the authorities weren't convinced by for several days, hence the divided search.

I hope they were right in their eventual choice.

[volcanicash]

Mach2point7 said:http://s4.postimg.org/4cawb2g71/MH370_Mar17_Thumb.jpg
Can anyone confirm that this chart was indeed released today by the Malaysian Government ?Ugh, no this is absolutely not any kind of official document. Simply my rough interpretation to illustrate what had been implied at yesterday’s press conference by the authorities regarding the corridors. I thought I had made that clear in my original post, but will go back and edit.

Going to a dance, send three and fourpence... :ugh:

[Mats Hosan]

March 18

"Flight 370’s Flight Management System reported its status to the Acars, which in turn transmitted information back to a maintenance base, according to an American official. This shows that the reprogramming happened before the Acars stopped working. The Acars ceased to function about the same time that oral radio contact was lost and the airplane’s transponder also stopped, fueling suspicions that foul play was involved in the plane’s disappearance."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?hp&_r=1

[Aluminium shuffler]

Arch-conspiracy theories like that by LX-GB1 and others are not helpful and show a complete lack of undertsanding and credibility of the poster. Please stop speculating if you don't understand aircraft and ATC architecture.

Suggesting that the 9/11 aircraft were remotely piloted singles posters out for their own stupidity. Suggesting that a standard FBW aircraft could be remotely hacked and flown is equally stupid. Comparison to a specially equipped 707 and 727, just on principle that they were made by the same company as this missing aircraft surely has to qualify for some sort of cretins' award?

[Wantion]

Another view

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/5329096-3x2-700x467.jpg

[ashs2ashs]

media press conference starting now

Live TV | Astro Awani (http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live)

[SOPS]

That a long way to fly ( and back again) before even starting a search.

[VH-XXX]

Last time Australia was involved in a search this far out (Tony Bullimore), a private Global Express? was flown from Melbourne to Perth and then used to search for the yacht. No charge was requested for the use of the aircraft. Admittedly they had exact coordinates due to a PLB being activated, however if I'm not mistaken there weren't that many SAR aircraft capable of those distances out of Australia. I believe the P3 has a range of some 5,500m which makes searching somewhat difficult with a circa 2000km search range excliding transit.

What a way to end it all... a one-way no return trip to Antartica but without enough fuel.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/5329096-3x2-700x467.jpg

[OleOle]

For those interested in the surface current in the Australian search region for the last 10 days.

Buoy 14908 (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=14908)

(Sorry don't know how to post the pic)

The northern limit of the westward drift of the roaring forties seems to be around latitude 47S. So if debris is in the region, it may not get washed away to patagonia.

[Swiss Cheese]

"Informed" sources suggest that data will be revealed later this week that last placed MH370 on an established Southern track. The Australians may be closer than they first thought.

In due course, I would also not be surprised if the CVR/DFDR circuit brakers had been pulled...

[tichy]

Actually John Young does a really good job of explaining the search area from 5:00-6:30 for the impatient

If you look at the video on the 'RCC MH370 search B-Roll'.
Its a 1080p video, quite interesting
At 0:25 you can see their asset tracker, ships and aircraft.
At 0:40 you see the data from the search area, no indication as to what it is returned from
At 1:12 it shows the search area labelled

RSCU102
A11
1500FT

[mickjoebill]

Press conference
After reviewing evidence the investigating partners are sticking to the notion that transponder was "turned off" by someone onboard.

Malaysian govt stressing 25 international partners now onboard.
Malaysians and other should put politics and differences aside.
North and South vectors divided into 7 sections, each section 400x400 nautical miles.
Australia and Indonesia searching southern corridor the area is "huge" so they are seeking help from usa "satellites and radar" to help.
Still not discounting any possible causes.
Govt has been consistent in focusing on SAR, he says CNN and UK daily mail have raised the concern of the effects of internal Malaysian politics ( inference is that foreign media are wrong)
Conference continues but ABC oz have ceased live coverage

[VH-XXX]

Interestingly this is a similar search area to a few years back when Abby Sunderland needed rescuing Australia sent a Qantas A330 Airbus.

Later picked up by a fishing vessel. Tony Bullimore was picked up by an Australian Navy ship. You need some pretty decent sea-going vessels to look at a resuce in this area not to mention as a platform for searching for a CVR.

Solo sailor Abby Sunderland alive, awaiting rescue by boat | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/national/solo-sailor-abby-sunderland-out-of-contact-distress-signal-activated/story-e6frfkp9-1225878274560)

http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2010/06/11/1225878/504745-pn-news-abby-search-map.jpg

[Evey_Hammond]

I'm looking forward to some good translation of the questions & answers section of this press conference because I can hardly understand a word due to poor sound setup! I'm particularly interested in the 3 questions that caused some amusement (from a French reporter?)

[OXCART]

@Wantion

There seems to be a Chinese registered vessel south of the Planned Search Area

HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship

Where are they going?

[EXEK1996]

On the search maps the possible aircraft track has been provided by the NTSB. So do they know it went South?

Why havent the position of the pings prior to 0811 been released?

ana1936 thks for the maps.

[captains_log]

Malaysian press briefing complete with nothing new really:


Care assistants are with family members who have threatened hunger strike

Decrompression affecting the pilots has not been ruled out

Malaysia pilots not previusly flown in the 'southern corridoor'

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

I'm looking forward to some good translation of the questions & answers section of this press conference because I can hardly understand a word due to poor sound setup! I'm particularly interested in the 3 questions that caused some amusement (from a French reporter?)

The last part of the French question was the only one I could make out, "Do you have protection", presumably alluding to the personal risks of being the acting Transport Minister at the moment as opposed to birth control ;)

[Little cloud]

Yesterday (17th) Tim Vasquez provided links to weather satellite imagery of the SE Indian Ocean area on the 8th March.

http://www.pprune.org/8382068-post4888.html

His images are from around 0000 - 0200 UTC and are around 2km resolution. However there are 250m pixel images available from around 0300 to 0500 UTC available on this site:

Rapid Response - LANCE - Near Real Time (Orbit Swath) Images (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/)

It's necessary to type the date in the small box at top left, click on the relevant thumbnail and select a resolution. There are two sets of images, firstly the Terra satellite with earliest coverage, unfortunately about 3-4 hours after the last 'ping'. So only a persistent contrail would be visible. To my untrained eye there's no visible contrails over the open sea areas. I expect the professionals have already enhanced these images as part of the search.

[mickjoebill]

SOPS That a long way to fly ( and back again) before even starting a search.

3hr 40min transit 2 hours on station, then return....
Search for missing Malaysian Airlines MH370 begins 3000km south-west of Perth | theage.com.au (http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/search-for-missing-malaysian-airlines-mh370-begins-3000km-southwest-of-perth-20140318-34zyn.html)

[Wantion]

@OXCART
Apparently NAN TONG

HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501228 (http://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/HANG-SHENG-1-IMO-0-MMSI-413501228)

[EPPO]

If the transponder stopped transmitting, ATC is always quick to let you know. Nothing was said from ATC about this, not even when handed over to Vietnam Control.

It's also strange that while Vietnam ATC made every effort to contact back the a/c, Malaysians seemed oblivious to the matter, despite having been warned by their counterpart. I think a missing plane is something to worry about.

[harrryw]

HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501228 (http://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/HANG-SHENG-1-IMO-0-MMSI-413501228)

seems to have an enormous speed for a cargo vessel. THey say it is going 49.7 knots.

Sounds more like a navy ship.
something like this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Littoral_combat_ship

[bono]

OleOle
For those interested in the surface current in the Australian search region for the last 10 days.
Buoy 14908

... here it is:

http://i57.tinypic.com/2my2cds.jpg

[Cheerio]

If you click in the 'Track' tab it seems to be performing some sort of search pattern. Not sailing a straight line thats for sure.

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

"Up until the point at which it left primary military radar coverage, the aircraft's movements were consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane".

They always emphasise the deliberate action bit but for the crew's reputational sake and keeping an open mind, I wish they'd include a caveat that this could just as easily mean somebody trying whatever they could to fly/navigate an aircraft facing considerable difficulty rather than, what seems to be in vogue, assuming foul play by the crew or a passenger.

Fortunately he went on to say they are keeping an open mind and are ruling nothing out until the aircraft and FDR/CVR are found.

[EXEK1996]

That Cargo Ship is never going to make Nantong the way its going,...definitely could be conducting a search....

[xyze]

Cheerio:

Well spotted.

It's either searching, fishing, not under control or lost.

It is certainly not doing a simple cargo run.

[FE Hoppy]

It isn't doing 50kts either so I would be suspicious of the track.

[Msunduzi]

Cheerio:

Well spotted.

It's either searching, fishing, not under control or lost.

It is certainly not doing a simple cargo run.


Looks more like fishing.

[Lord Spandex Masher]

The good news to come out of this is US stealth technology R+D coats have just been slashed.

[mbriscoe]

I just tweeted this to Don Lemmon at CNN:
#370QS what is the reason so many facts are coming out as "US officials say" rather than direct from Malaysian govt?

I agree this "US officials say" approach is yuk. And when I found one main reason, the ABC NEWS story, it gave me serious cause for doubt. Now that NY Times and WSJ are both very definitely saying this is what they have also learned from sources and just recently, folks we do know are not allowed to give their names, it seems to ring true. Not a good state of affairs, but true.

It could result in the Malaysians being reluctant to involve the Americans much because they know many things passed in confidence will be then given to the press.

I would rather the various authorities got on with the investigation rather than briefing tame reporters off the record.

[max nightstop]

There has been much talk of the Malaysian military primary radar and actions consistent with a deliberate act but I haven't seen a trace or any justification for the consistency statement. Do they mean it flew straight and level, or that it performed nice rate one turns, or an impressive aerobatic sequence? I am suspicious at the apparent confusion from the Malaysians.

If the Vietnamese were looking for it after it failed to make contact, isn't it inconceivable that the Malaysians weren't doing the same? If they were, and the military were tracking it and it was flying in a controlled manner, what would be their next actions. Intercept? Shoot it down if it was heading for land and not responding? If that had happened could they obfuscate the investigation to avoid detection of their action? Which governments would be complicit in such a cover up?

No one wants the spectre of a successful hijack to reenter the geopolitical domain.

[brika]

I think a missing plane is something to worry about.

I think we can safely say that that is the understatement of the year/decade.

Sorry to interrupt the “smooth flow” of conversation here.

Now the 10th day, the trail of MH370 is clearly quite cold. The amount of manpower, time and finance expended is uncountable and still growing rapidly with no real results. The effects on families and friends are profound.
Discussions about the hows and whys no doubt will lead to further improvements to make our airways, airlines and lives safe and is always welcomed.

But answers will only start coming when MH370 and/or its FDR/CVR is found. The priority now is therefore on finding the a/c. No doubt many of the searchers/investigators are greatly motivated and altruistic. However the greatest motivator of human behaviour by and large is money. It would bring into play millions of people all over the world (who so far have not been involved in the SAR and have no motivation to do so), including the ordinary inhabitants of countries along the corridors of search.

Why doesn’t someone announce a reward? The Malaysian Government should be the one to initiate this. This a/c incident is unprecedented and the methods used to find it should also be.

Tin hat on.:oh:

[tvasquez]

Funny that the search area was defined so far south today. Yesterday after posting the Indian Ocean sectors at High-res visible sectors for Southeast Indian Ocean - 8 March 2014 - Weather Graphics (http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/iozooms.shtml) I received a PM from a user named Chicklets. He has 0 posts to his name and is unable to get past the moderation, but he said this: "Southwest Region, 0100 UTC, four squares over and three down from top left. In the top middle/left of the square there appears to be a nice straight line."

Maybe my eyes at age 45 are already getting too weary to see it, but perhaps one of you can make it out. If it's there, that would place the coordinates at roughly near 43N 87W (within 2 deg), which is right in the area VH-XXX posted. If this artifact is really there, anything going south would easily peg it as MAS370. If you all do crosscheck and identify anything conclusive I will check the imagery and get an exact lat/long set.

I had shunned these images giving any useful information since much of the air mass is subsident, but looking at the images in those southern sectors I do see cirriform clouds south of 40N consistent with jet stream westerlies and heightened relative humidity in the upper troposphere. If the plane got that far south and was at FL450 for any extended duration it would certainly have been laying down a persistent contrail (or a shadow, as that area looks mostly cloud-covered).

I do realize at this point we're grabbing at straws, so this could just as very well be some anomaly in the cloud texture.

Regarding the mention of 250m AQUA/TERRA satellites... that would certainly be my first "go to" solution if the flights were in the air during the late morning, but by the time those satellites were overheard I'd expect any contrails to be long gone or diffused into a cirrus layer with an unidentifiable origin.

[damirc]

Oddly enough there seem to be two Hang Sheng 1:

HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501228 (http://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/HANG-SHENG-1-IMO-0-MMSI-413501228)

and

HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501230 (http://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/HANG-SHENG-1-IMO-0-MMSI-413501230)

(and one of them is where it is to be expected...).

[SLFplatine]

Quote (onetrack):
If MH370 actually did go into the Indian Ocean, in the region of the latest search area - then it's highly likely a % of any floating, surviving wreckage will almost certainly, eventually wash up onto the West Australian coast, due to constant prevailing S/Westerly surface winds.

Not necessarily; one, the Leeuwin current off of West Australia runs parallel to the coast and, two the search area extend below 40˚ south latitude which puts in in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current -if it went down there debris might wash up on Tierra del Fuego or the West Antarctic Peninsula

[ManaAdaSystem]

Draw a line from KL to point of lost contact, then from this point across Malaysia to the last raw data radar position point, then from this point south towards the deepest area of the Indian Ocean. Put a X where the known fuel reserves would have been exhausted.
Put a 200 NM circle around this X and start searching within this circle 4000 meters or so down.

My guess.

[oldoberon]

ANA1936, your red blue white map spot on, well done.

The search area appears to confirm Jorn was On.

[mbriscoe]

Oddly enough there seem to be two Hang Sheng 1:
HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501228 (http://apicdn.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=1e857e7500cdd32403f752206c297a3d&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-283.html&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vesselfinder.com%2Fvessels%2FHANG-SHENG-1-IMO-0-MMSI-413501228&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-282.html)
and
HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501230 (http://apicdn.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=1e857e7500cdd32403f752206c297a3d&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-283.html&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vesselfinder.com%2Fvessels%2FHANG-SHENG-1-IMO-0-MMSI-413501230&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-282.html)
(and one of them is where it is to be expected...).
D.

Also unusual of a merchant vessel not to have an IMO.

[ChrisJ800]

hope that chinese ship is an icebreaker as its on or close to continental Antarctica heading south at 51kts! Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions - AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:117.1326/centery:-71.51899/zoom:8/oldmmsi:413501228/olddate:lastknown#)

[Tourist]

Harryw

re your link to US littoral combat ships

Are you aware what "littoral" means?

[Sober Lark]

From what I've seen of the convoluted 'lose face' reasoning of this investigation so far, I can only imagine the pressure on any crew member there to try to remain asymptomatic rather than lose face by seeking help or stepping down whilst taking antidepressant medication.

[Wantion]

@tvasquez

I can see it ! can you put a circle around it and post it here ?

How does that line up with the current search area and predicted paths..possible to overlay the positions ?

[Beanbag]

Naive question from a non-pilot: assuming a decompression, might the (disoriented) pilot have pulled the transponder/radio CB by mistake thinking he was doing something more appropriate? That is, on the 777 is there any CB located near the radio CB that you might reasonably want to pull following a decompression?

[Tallman]

So of the options re aircraft final destination we have:


South China Sea - Not likely due to data and intensive search - Cause would be sudden destruction/crash and not found.
Northern Sector - Less likely outcome at present: Cause would be Sophisticated Hijacking. Possibly same scenario re pax as per 3 below but hostage option another possibility, i.e. they were alive whilst in the air at least. Either aircraft landed somewhere and dodged radar/satellite, crashed due to running out of fuel, deliberate action by PIC to avoid 9/11 type scenario or some fight happening on board as per United 93.
Southern Sector - Most likely outcome at present: Suicide mission to remote place so aircraft hopefully never found to make sure of insurance pay-out for family. Pilot overcomes/shuts out other crew member(s), goes up to incapacitate (..) pax then sneaks away as far as possible and runs out of fuel or crashes.


Hypoxia scenario starting just after 1:20 and before 1:37 less likely due to data, i.e. too many unlikely (and not aimed at alleviating situation) input moments from some agency on board. Only scenario I can remotely consider would be hypoxia scenario after point of last radar contact (02:40) due to fight between PIC and others on west coast of Malaysia and aircraft continues south until fuel runs out.

What else fits the data so far?

[Ian W]

Similar ATC experience, half of it in this region.
While I agree with you on the "goodnight" bit, its the "alright,..." that sounds a bit odd to me togther with the lack of callsign if that is the case.
I've spoken with hundreds of MH flights over the years and can't recall anyone acknowledging a frequency transfer with just "alright, ......"

Granted he is answering his own countrymen ATC, so maybe a little more familiarity crept in there.

It would be of more interest to hear what the ATC said on handoff - if the controller was punchy and professional 'alright goodnight' would be strange, if the controller was flippant and made some comment on handoff then that may have triggered the 'alright goodnight'. Out of context it is not what you would expect, however it may make more sense in context.

[A_Van]

Many interesting versions have been addressed and discussed, but the "Occam's razor" principle suggests to first evaluate and elaborate the most obvious options.

IMHO, this means to focus on a "trivial" hijacking. If that was possible in US back in 2001, why similar guys (e.g. islamic extremists) cannot do that now in KL where the security is not very tough (my personal opinion as a passenger that flew to/from that airport several times in the recent years)?

A long and careful (and hidden) work of many security services may (and hopefully will) bring more on the desk than chaotic search involving many planes and vessels. After 9/11 the details of the entire gang were revealed quite quickly. Thus, it was doable.

It appears that in China (because of their known regime) they could screen background of their passengers, but there were people of many nationalities onboard. I wonder if all the countries whose citizens were in the plane are eager to cooperate and have capabilities to dig out all the aspects of their personal life? But again, this now seems to be the only way to crack the puzzle. If the debris were not found in 10 days, the probability of finding them later reduces exponentially.

[Huck]

From what I've seen of the convoluted 'lose face' reasoning of this investigation so far, I can only imagine the pressure on any crew member there to try to remain asymptomatic rather than lose face by seeking help or stepping down whilst taking antidepressant medication.

Not just there....

[Sheep Guts]

Are there any countries left searching the South China Sea? Or has it been totally abandoned? I hope not. They should keep there options open.

[Ian W]

When your "always on" device shorts and catches on fire, you'd wish it had a breaker to fully disable it...

I agree - give a breaker to disable it - and disabling the device will be treated by all agencies as an emergency squawk - as obviously it would only be turned off if you were being hijacked or you were on fire. So within a short period you would have a fighter escort to the nearest suitable airport for landing as if you had a suspect cargo - be taxied to the most remote part of the airport and have everyone, including you, carefully searched and interviews without tea and biscuits. :=

I believe that the world has now got to this state. IFF it turns out that this was a crew initiated 'hijack' AND the aircraft is subsequently used for some kind of terrorist incident. Expect pilots' views on what they don't like not to be given a whole lot of precedence.

[harrryw]

Yes....I do know littoral means close to shore. Probably comes from lighters which were used for cargo.
THe point I wass making with these was small ships which normally could operate at 20 knots but could perform for some time at the speed the website quoted.
'
I think the only people who really know what they are are not likely to tell us. I do notice that the tracks of the Pilot Boat Parmelia however are pretty accurate so presumably these tracks are not too inacurate either.

[RTD1]

Thailand just released radar confirming the turnaround.

Thai military radar data bolsters belief that Flight 370 changed path - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)

The Thai military was receiving normal flight path and communication data from the Boeing 777-200 on its planned March 8 route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing until 1:22 a.m., when it disappeared from its radar.

Six minutes later, the Thai military detected an unknown signal, a Royal Thai Air Force spokesman told CNN. This unknown aircraft, possibly Flight 370, was heading the opposite direction.

Nothing really new there, but it confirms what was already believed.

This part is interesting though:

"The unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently, on and off, and on and off," the spokesman said. The Thai military lost the unknown aircraft's signal because of the limits of its military radar, he said.

That sounds a lot more like an equipment failure than someone deliberately turning off the transponder.

[Space Jet]

In relation to those vessel tracker and marine traffic websites they work by volunteers feeding in the VHF AIS data frequency exactly like flight radar 24 so if there out of coverage of the nearest feeder it will only show the last position of the vessel when it had coverage.

I believe you can pay $300 a month to marine traffic and get the vessels position by satcom.

[oldoberon]

It is perfectly logical that Malaysian would be tankering fuel running up to China. It is a govt-owned carrier that reportedly is running well into the red. For all we know, the fuel guys up there will not extend credit, or keep a tight leash on the outstanding receivables, or are demanding a prepaid surety account, or have cut the carrier off completely. TWA got into that bind in its last days (actually, the last year). Nobody would sell them fuel on open account. Since Malaysia is a "producer," and the govt has its fingers in that pie, likely some brother-in-law has the supply contract and gets the fuel at say 17 cents a gal. and re-sells it to the Carrier at say $2.20. Meanwhile the Chinese guys are demanding cash up front at (pick your number) $4.00. The solution is driven by the economic realities: they tanker.

I noted that everybody was being very cagey about saying "the normal fuel load was taken on." Normal for what? Normal for the flight parameters, or normal for their not having open-account credit in Beijing? Or, normal for the brother-in-law? Nobody knows. Hey, it's Asia; things are opaque as a matter of course. :O

How much of this tankered fuel would you burn just to carry it, ie more weight less MPG.

however this extra weight may be the reason why max pax was not available as opposed to some very heavy freight in the hold.

[nitpicker330]

Nope, that sounds like Thai Military Primary Search Radar was painting the MH 370 at the limit of the Radars range hence it was intermittently painting the target.

[Blake777]

Have you considered that unfortunately there is no outcome at this stage that can please anyone in the aviation industry?

Two options are especially displeasing - rogue pilot or a cascade of pilot/s errors.

But would it be any better if found to be a catastrophic failure of the aircraft or fire?

The most pleasing option may seem to be a hijack by a person unknown - what would that do for crew security? The question on the safety of the flight deck will then rear its ugly head again.

In the extremely unlikely event of a stowaway, a new round of people including ground crew come under scrutiny and crew are still not secure.

All options are unpleasant but I lean in favour of a rogue captain or possibly the captain under duress heading south to cause a catastrophic embarrassment to the Malaysian Government. The civil unease this incident has caused has the potential to bring down the current Government - especially if the aircraft is not recovered - which may have been the person as yet unknown's intention.

[mrbigbird]

I have read this thread from day 1.

Loads of wacky theories out there. Like really out there.

But amongst all the chatter here on pprune there is occasionally some real cutting edge analysis that breaks new ground - often well ahead of news media and especially those god awful 'news' conferences from KL.

I had been firmly of the view after reading all that I have here, that the aircraft most likely ended up in the Indian Ocean at the far end of the southern arc.

I just couldn't conceive that anyone, even after initially engaging in such purposeful and tactical flying, as now seems almost certain, could fly north and avoid detection.

But what has troubled me from day one - why plan this thing thing so carefully, fly so tactically, so dangerously, initially so far north, only then to fly for 6/7/8 hours simply to drop it in the drink.

Many things about this don't make sense. But that to me is the most illogical.

And then I read this post ...

"leanderandhero

Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: sestos
Age: 61
Posts: 4
It is on the ground in western Xinjiang.
I have observed all comments here with interest since Saturday 8 March.
The quality of the technical knowledge on PPRuNe is, for the most part, the best in the world.

The site.....and the 'Mods' deserve great praise.

Tanto nomini nullum par elgoium

I have not posted here for 12 years.

I was a professional pilot. (7000 hours) Before that, a British Army officer. With experience of terrorism.

For the moment I propose this, for discussion:

The aircraft landed safely in western Xinjiang, the homeland of the Uygurs, at about sunrise on Saturday 8 March. On an unpaved desert strip. The passengers are alive. They are hostages. The plane is now in bits and hidden. It is no longer required.

'Echelon' knows this.

The Chinese are looking there.....furiously. For 3 or 4 days.

I will say more tomorrow."

.....

Another crackpot I thought.

Them I googled 'Echelon'

Ok I thought. Interesting. But most likely another red herring.

Then on wading through all today's posts one thing started to jump off the page.

Not one, but virtually all of the countries tied up in this human tragedy have been caught out and actually admitted that their radar capabilities and monitoring is not just hopeless but on weekends and other times simply non existent. They don't even bother turn on what they have on.

These failures and gaping holes in radar coverage have been reported/admitted by Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, India and now Australia.

And these admissions have been obtained only now after 9 days of extreme pressure.

If the aircraft managed to get to northern china and if hostages or ransom negotiations are underway (and with most of the passengers being Chinese that could certainly firm up a motive) I can guarantee the Chinese would deny all and everything. Including radar tracks.

They have already issued instructions to local media not to investigate or comment on the disappearance.

And remember that very first red herring about the large plane parts they spotted floating new the last known position.

That was fishy from day one.

I'll post below some of the most intriguing comments/stories that have made me start to question what I had concluded most likely happened.

"17th Mar 2014, 22:50 #5452 (permalink)
ILS27LEFT

Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Europe
Posts: 165
Chinese Terrorism
"Meanwhile, claims that a 35-year-old Uighur man from China’s troubled autonomous Muslim province was on Flight MH370 may be looked at in a new light. The group claimed responsibility earlier this week but were dismissed as opportunistic and not credible, but Malaysian reports now say the passenger had taken flight-simulator training in 2005."
Uighur separatists? claim over missing flight MH370 may be re-examined | News.com.au"


" #5523 (permalink)
xcitation

Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: California
Age: 44
Posts: 141
@simon001
Quote:
Also, there are parts of Malaysia and Indonesia between point 2 and the top of the southern red arc. Was there no military coverage in these areas?

I am expecting there is a good reason for this but it would be nice to see some detail behind the maps. I'd be wondering if I was a family member.
According to the military chief for India on the Andaman islands they only operate when required to. I have heard that this is during normal working hours and they turn off in the evening."


" 18th Mar 2014, 06:20 #5568 (permalink)
Blake777

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: WA
Posts: 8
From the New Straits Times:


NST also reports that Malaysian investigators are currently favouring the theory that MH370 headed north."

--------------------

"Malaysia Plane May Have Flown Into Radar Black Hole — Indian Military
Mon, March 17, 2014 6:04pm EDT by Andrew Gruttadaro


Was the hijacker of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 able to escape detection by flying into a part of the Indian Ocean that isn’t covered by radar? That’s the question being investigated after a senior official in the Indian military revealed that they only sparingly check the radar systems in that area.
Initially it seemed impossible that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, a Boeing 777 carrying 239 people, could have disappeared without anyone noticing, but it turns out this modern age of surveillance isn’t as constant as we thought. On March 17, an Indian official admitted that they rarely monitor the radar systems that Flight 370 likely passed through."


Flight 370: Did Radar Systems Miss It?
One of two proposed flight paths the disappeared plane could have taken extends from Indonesia to the Indian Ocean. If Flight 370 did fly through this area, then there’s a good chance that Indian radar systems didn’t even pick it up, a senior military official told CNN.

The official revealed that the radar systems covering the Andaman and Nicobar Islands aren’t as closely watched by the Indian military as others. That leaves open the possibility that the systems did not notice the plane as it crossed through the area. If Flight 370 flew along that proposed southern corridor, then there’s a good chance that it did so through this “black hole” in the Indian Ocean.

---------------

By Peter Apps and Frank Jack Daniel

LONDON/NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Whatever truly happened to missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370, its apparently unchallenged wanderings through Asian skies point to major gaps in regional - and perhaps wider - air defenses.

More than a decade after al Qaeda hijackers turned airliners into weapons on September 11, 2001, a large commercial aircraft completely devoid of stealth features appeared to vanish with relative ease.

On Saturday, Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak said authorities now believed the Boeing 777 flew for nearly seven hours after disappearing early on March 8. Either its crew or someone else on the plane disabled the on-board transponder civilian air traffic radar used to track it, investigators believe.

It appears to have first flown back across the South China Sea - an area of considerable geopolitical tension and military activity - before overflying northern Malaysia and then heading out towards India without any alarm being raised.

The reality, analysts and officials say, is that much of the airspace over water - and in many cases over land - lacks sophisticated or properly monitored radar coverage.

Analysts say the gaps in Southeast Asia's air defenses are likely to be mirrored in other parts of the developing world, and may be much greater in areas with considerably lower geopolitical tensions.

"Several nations will be embarrassed by how easy it is to trespass their airspace," said Air Vice Marshal Michael Harwood, a retired British Royal Air Force pilot and ex-defense attache to Washington DC. "Too many movies and Predator (unmanned military drone) feeds from Afghanistan have suckered people into thinking we know everything and see everything. You get what you pay for. And the world, by and large, does not pay."

"TOO EXPENSIVE"

Air traffic systems rely almost entirely on on-board transponders to detect and monitor aircraft. In this case, those systems appear to have been deactivated around the time the aircraft crossed from Malaysian to Vietnamese responsibility.

At the very least, the incident looks set to spark calls to make it impossible for those on board an aircraft to turn off its transponders and disappear.

Military systems, meanwhile, are often limited in their own coverage or just ignore aircraft they believe are on regular commercial flights. In some cases, they are simply switched off except during training and when a threat is expected.

That, one senior Indian official said, might explain why the Boeing 777 was not detected by installations on India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands, an archipelago which its planes were searching on Friday and Saturday, or elsewhere.

"We have many radar systems operating in this area, but nothing was picked up," Rear Admiral Sudhir Pillai, chief of staff of India's Andamans and Nicobar Command, told Reuters. "It's possible that the military radars were switched off as we operate on an 'as required' basis."

Separately, a defense source said that India did not keep its radar facilities operational at all times because of cost. Asked what the reason was, the source said: "Too expensive."

"SOMEONE ELSE'S PROBLEM"

Worries over revealing defense capabilities, some believe, may have slowed cooperation in the search for flight MH370, particularly between Malaysia and China. Beijing has poured military resources into the search, announcing it was deploying 10 surveillance satellites and multiple ships and aircraft. It has been critical of Malaysia's response.

While Malaysian military radar does appear to have detected the aircraft, there appear to have been no attempts to challenge it - or, indeed, any realization anything was amiss.

That apparent oversight, current and former officials and analysts say, is surprising. But the incident, they say, points to the relatively large gaps in global air surveillance and the limits of some military radar systems.

"It's hard to tell exactly why they did not notice it," says Elizabeth Quintana, senior research fellow for air power at the Royal United Services Institute in London. "It may have been that the aircraft was flying at low level or that the military operators were looking for other threats such as fast jets and felt that airliners were someone else's problem."

Current and former officials say that - hopefully, at least - such an incident would be detected much faster in North American or European airspace. There, military and civilian controllers monitor radar continuously on alert for possible hijacks or intruders.

The sudden failure of a transponder, they say, would itself prove a likely and dramatic cause for concern.

"I can't think of many situations in which one would actually need to switch them off," said one former Western official on condition of anonymity.

U.S. and NATO jets periodically scramble to intercept unidentified aircraft approaching their airspace, including a growing number of Russian long-range bombers.

In some other areas, it is simply not seen as worth maintaining a high level of alert - or radar coverage itself may not even exist.

"NOTHING MUCH HAPPENS AT NIGHT"

Investigators now say they believe MH370 may have turned either towards India and Central Asia or - perhaps more likely, given the lack of detection - taken a southern course towards the Antarctic. That would have been an effectively suicidal flight, the aircraft eventually running out of fuel and crashing.

The waters of the southern Indian Ocean and northern Southern Ocean are among the most remote on the planet, used by few ships and overflown by few aircraft.

Australian civilian radar extends only some 200 km (125 miles) from its coast, an Australian official said on condition of anonymity, although its air defense radar extends much further. Australia's military could not be reached for comment on Saturday and if it did detect a transponder-less aircraft heading south, there is no suggestion any alarm was raised.

U.S. military satellites monitor much of the globe, including some of the remotest oceans, looking primarily for early warning of any ballistic missile launch from a submarine or other vessel.

After the aircraft's initial disappearance a week ago, U.S. officials said their satellites had detected no signs of a mid-air explosion. It is unclear if such systems would have detected a crash landing in the southern Indian Ocean.

On India's Andaman Islands, a defense official told reporters he saw nothing unusual or out of place in the lack of permanent radar coverage. The threat in the area, he said, was much lower than on India's border with Pakistan where sophisticated radars are manned and online continuously.

At night in particular, he said, "nothing much happens".

"We have our radars, we use them, we train with them, but it's not a place where we have (much) to watch out for," he said. "My take is that this is a pretty peaceful place."

-----------------

MH370 Australian search looks at target 3000 km from Perth | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/03/18/mh370-australian-search-targets-location-3000-km-from-perth/?wpmp_switcher=mobile)

He wouldn’t be drawn on the possibility that MH370 has come down along the mirror image northern hemisphere arc from which the last known electronic trace from the jet could have come, other than to give the media a lucid explanation as to why both arcs were, signal wise, of equal validity.

[Mats Hosan]

11:42: Jonathan Head BBC News, Bangkok tweets: #Thai air force takes 10 days to acknowledge it did track #MH370 turning west - makes Malaysian government look swift. Click here for the report. Thai Air Force radar may have detected Malaysia's MH370: Thai Air Force Chief | MCOT.net | MCOT.net (http://www.mcot.net/site/content?id=53282141be047004a08b463f#.Uygoaq2SymB)

[Simplythebeast]

Sky. News now reporting that times etc provided by Malaysian Transport Minister and Prime minister are not accurate and that what was given by them as fact is now axknowleged by the Authorities to be speculation?

[oldoberon]

The thread search function is down now and I am unable to locate the superbly informative post from a satellite expert made here earlier today, but in it he said essentially that there is probably not a log of the earlier hourly Inmarsat pings. They are just written to an overwritable memory buffer and it's probably lucky the last ping had not been overwritten when Inmarsat searched for an MH370 record.

site search function has never worked for me and others have made similar comments.

use google but limited to this site,

take the standard url address ie the address for the thread and prefix with it search terms

<nyt site:http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost>

<> remove them just there to stop text appearing as a link

can't recall who posted the info originally but from me many thanks.

[G-CPTN]

BBC News - Missing Malaysia MH370: Search planes grounded by 'red tape' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26629937)

[APLFLIGHT]

Singapore Airlines (SQ) #68 ? 08.03.2014 ? WSSS / SIN - LEBL / BCN ? FlightAware (http://de.flightaware.com/live/flight/SIA68/history/20140307/1640Z/WSSS/LEBL)

[harrryw]

this although it is weather radar will give an idea of the range it was operating over from Surathani to Butterworth.
Met there quote max range as 240 km. I would expect a lot better from military radar but physically at 415 km they claim to have painted at Butterworth and I think that is physically almost impossible unless the plane was flying very high level.
They did say Surathani radar detected it.

TMD Weather Radar (http://www2.tmd.go.th/radar/srt.php)

[MPN11]

"The unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently, on and off, and on and off," the spokesman said. The Thai military lost the unknown aircraft's signal because of the limits of its military radar, he said.

That sounds a lot more like an equipment failure than someone deliberately turning off the transponder.

Nope, that sounds like Thai Military Primary Search Radar was painting the MH 370 at the limit of the Radars range hence it was intermittently painting the target.

"Sending out" is surely transponder, not primary radar receiving a reflected signal from a skin paint? The "limits" referred to could as easily be display limitations as anything - the radar display only goes to <insert figure here>.

But then reporting in a second language has dogged pronouncements since Day 1.

[Stuffy]

This analysis that gives fire then a dash for Langkawi,with its 13000 ft runway, is good, but.....

https://plus.google.com/app/basic/stream/z13cv1gohsmbv5jmy221vrfyiz3vdhbop04#

This reply is better:-

" Okay, the theory make sense, but you forgot some procedures in case of 'Cargo fire', 'Engine fire' or 'Cabin fire': Everytime you stick to your checklists. In this case the aircraft gives you ECAM actions! You have to work through this! Perfectly you can watch those Crew Resource Management on Sim Training Videos on YouTube. A good one is this: 'A380 Engine Fire - Pilotseye.tv' Link:PilotsEYE.tv - A380 EngineFire - SimulatorPattern Toulouse - Bonus DVD|BDAfter you analysed the problem as a pilot you inform ATC. You're right with: Aviate, Navigate, Communicate. Aviate: Autopilot on and work correctly. Check. Navigate: Autopilot still on. Communicate: Inform ATC: Short message, takes only few seconds! Then start ECAM actions. Watch the sim video. And the other ones. The Theory fits not to the outcoming information about disabled ACARS before last radio transmission etc. - They intercept an other airway captured by primary radar: IGARI - VAMPI - GIVAL - IGREX.*


- Inmarsat Satellite still gets requests from aircraft hours after disappearing. - No debris found in street of malacca. If it were on fire, look at other incidents, the crew were not able to fly for hours. they crashed within 1 hour!- They are more alternate and possible airports to land in that area.

[Lonewolf_50]

According to historical data this flight normally loses ATC contact around the area of the last report. Most flights regain contact just short of the Vietnamese coast. It was coming right at the time of last report, towards the oil rig. That lends credence to his claim the plane was coming straight at the rig, not moving left or right from his perspective. I would imagine the ASW towed array sonar on one of the A-B class destroyers could pick up the pinger if they ran down that bearing line to the oil rig. Anyone know what frequency that thing pings at?
As previously posted, dozens of pages back, typical acoustic beacons that conform to the spec operate on a frequency of 37.5kHz +/- 1 kHz (http://estock.aviall.com/pdf/catpage/1991.pdf)

Also, as previously noted, and thanks to my Navy experience in ASW, towed array will run into some ambiet noise problems in that area, due to water depth. Not that they shouldn't try anyway, if that is a high probability search area. If you go back through the last fifty pages of this thread, you'll see why it isn't a high probability search area as of this writing.

nitpicker330
Nope, that sounds like Thai Military Primary Search Radar was painting the MH
370 at the limit of the Radars range hence it was intermittently painting the
target.
Thta was my takeaway as well. Someone noted that crossing language barriers the occasional nuance or context may be lost.

[OPENDOOR]

@RTD1

That sounds a lot more like an equipment failure than someone deliberately turning off the transponder.

Or that it was at the limits of reception of its output power of 200watts (wow, didn't know that)

Useful information for anyone with transponder or SSR questions (pre mode s)

Transponder Basics - AVweb Features Article (http://www.avweb.com/news/avionics/183231-1.html?redirected=1)

Edit; End piece from the above 1998 article;

The FAA is now talking about a future ATC system based not on radar surveillance, as is used today, but on "automatic dependent surveillance" in which aircraft continually transmit their GPS position to ground stations which keep track of them and tell controllers where they are. In view of this, it's possible that Mode S may become obsolete before we need to worry about it.

Possibly (as others here have suggested) a standalone version of the above will be mandated as a result of MH370

[Pontius Navigator]

FBW94, answered comprehensively, scroll back.

[mrbigbird]

"China searches own territory for missing Malaysia Airlines jet


7:26 AM, March 18, 2014 | 0 Comments

China is hunting for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 over its own territory, state media reported Tuesday, as the country also said that it has found no terrorism links to the 154 Chinese nationals that were on the missing jetliner.

Chinese Ambassador to Malaysia Huang Huikang said background checks on Chinese nationals didn't uncover any evidence suggesting they were involved in hijacking or an act of terrorism against the plane, according to the state Xinhua News Agency.

The remarks will dampen speculation that Uighur Muslim separatists in far western Xinjiang province might have been involved with the disappearance of the Boeing 777 and its 239 passengers and crew early on March 8."


Question: now if they and everyone else seems so supremely confident that there is no way that the missing aircraft could have avoided radar through Thailand India or China - why are they now confirming they are indeed searching their own territory?

[Speed of Sound]

After 9/11 the details of the entire gang were revealed quite quickly. Thus, it was doable.

If I remember correctly, didn't 'suicide videos' of the participants start to appear in the public domain fairly soon after the attack?

[400drvr]

I am not in any way trying to present an explanation of what has happened to MU370. Instead after watching the news shows talk on and on, one thing comes to mind. One of these reports talked about the altitudes that the aircraft was tracked at. From the low 20,000 foot range to 45,000 feet which as I understand it is above the certified altitude of the 777. So in my mind there are 2 reasons that would explain such deviations in altitude. The first being the aircraft was experiencing mechanical difficulties in which the pilots were having a hard time controlling. Or, the cockpit crew was no longer a part of the equation and some one else was in charge.

[Evanelpus]

Not been around here for about 5 days so 'm sorry if this has already been asked.

Has the projected range charts for this flight been calculated at maximum operating heights/speeds? I noticed the press were saying the aircraft could have decended to as low as 5/6000ft to avoid radar but this would have had a drastic effect on fuel consumption surely.

[misd-agin]

oldoberon - How much of this tankered fuel would you burn just to carry it, ie more weight less MPG.

however this extra weight may be the reason why max pax was not available as opposed to some very heavy freight in the hold.








You burn slightly less than 3% per hour, of any additional weight carried. Simple rule of thumb is 3% for mental math.

[FE Hoppy]

"The unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently, on and off, and on and off," the spokesman said. The Thai military lost the unknown aircraft's signal because of the limits of its military radar, he said.

It's a shame someone with technical knowledge cannot immediately ask for clarification.

"Unknown aircraft" = Primary
"sending out" = Secondary

Unknown aircraft + Sending = The primary was tracked constantly(unknown) and the SSR was intermittently transmitting garbage data (it's mode s so even without an assigned code you still know who it is)

Perfect example of poor communication.

[OleOle]

I have to admit my ignorance:

In the T7, if the FMC is in HDG mode, does that mean it follows course over ground, true course or magnetic course ? And likewise if you are e.g. in Phuket and set e.g. Ushuahia as next waypoint, would it automatically follow a great circle ?

Knowing the answers to these question and knowing all of the "ping arcs" may give some clues as to how the AP was set on that last journey.

[Stuffy]

Quite simply, crash or hijack?


Malaysia Airline MH370: 9/11-style terror allegations resurface in case of lost plane - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10700652/Malaysia-Airline-MH370-911-style-terror-allegations-resurface-in-case-of-lost-plane.html)

[mrbigbird]

There sure do seem to be a lot of stories popping up tonight about China.

As has been the pattern since day one it is investigative journalism that is providing all the new legitimate leads and leaving the authorities in KL to play catch up.

RT News.

Connecting the dots: Missing Malaysia Airlines plane a terror attack aimed at China?
Get short URL Published time: March 18, 2014 09:28

Students walk past a giant mural featuring missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 displayed on the grounds of their school in Manila's financial district of Makati on March 18, 2014 (AFP Photo / Ted Aljibe)
Tags
Accident, Asia, Intelligence, Planes
While the terror angle behind the missing Malaysia Airline Boeing 777 plane is being probed, there are several questions which, though unanswered yet, can help in piecing together this jigsaw puzzle.

CIA Director John Brennan made a significant remark on March 12 that his agency has “not at all” ruled out terrorism as possibly having played a part in the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370. He also said that there have not been any credible claims of responsibility from terrorist groups for the plane’s disappearance.

Obviously Brennan couldn’t have been unaware of claim of responsibility for the plane’s disappearance by the Chinese Martyrs’ Brigade – unheard of before now. This outfit had released a statement through an impossible-to-trace encrypted Hushmail anonymous service on March 9 saying: "You kill one of our clan, we will kill 100 of you as payback." According to the statement it was a response to the Chinese government for its persecution of the Uyghur ethnic minority.

This implies that the CIA chief attaches no importance to the claim, something which Malaysia's acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein has debunked in an on-record statement.

The needle of suspicion over the mysterious disappearance of MH 370 would inevitably point to the Chinese Uighurs if investigators conclude that the Malaysian plane was indeed a victim of terrorism.

The Muslim Uighur community is one of China’s 56 ethnic minorities which is in majority in the restive Xinjiang Autonomous Region. They have had a brief taste of independence as East Turkestan at least twice (in 1933 and 1950) but this independence proved to be short-lived. The Uighurs still harbor ambitions of becoming an independent state, a red rag for Beijing.

However, no such conclusive evidence has emerged yet. The Uighurs have come under the scanner because of ‘circumstantial evidence’. The MH 370 episode has come close on the heels of the March 1 terror incident in which knife-wielding assailants had killed at least 29 innocent people at a train station in the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming.

Also, of the 227 passengers on board MH 370 (apart from 12 crew members) at least 153 were Chinese nationals, a fact that must have been known to the perpetrators.

Besides, Uighurs continue to have links with Al-Qaeda-affiliated group, Jemaah Islamiyah, which has a presence in Malaysia, as well as the Philippines and Indonesia.

Nevertheless, there may be several reasons why the shadowy group’s claim is bogus and is just trying to make hay while the sun shines. First, the outfit has not given any details of the plane which is being searched by 12 countries’ navies. Six days after its disappearance, nobody knows what has happened to the ill-fated plane. Second, it may just be an attempt to whip up ethnic tensions between Uighurs and Han Chinese in China.

Third, hardcore terrorists seldom claim responsibility for their acts, as shown by the University of Maryland’s Global Terrorism Database according to which the perpetrators claimed responsibility for their acts in only 14 percent of the more than 45,000 terrorist acts that have occurred since 1998.


Some 20 activists demonstrate in front of the Chinese embassy in Vienna to protest against the repression of China's Uyghur minority in the northwestern region of Xinjiang (AFP Photo / Dieter Nagl)

Was China the prime target of the terrorists, if indeed it was a terror attack? Which terror group could be behind the suspected plane crash? It might be the Chinese Uighurs, but the actual perpetrator might still claim responsibility for this outrage which is too dastardly and too brutal a crime for any terror outfit to take responsibility without alienating the people. Besides, isn’t it possible that the real perpetrators would like to keep the waters muddied and lie low so that more attacks could be launched in the near future.

There is also a possibility that no organized terror outfit per se was involved in the act and instead it may have been a lone wolf (two wolves in the current context as the needle of suspicion is pointing to two men with "Asian features" who boarded the plane on stolen passports). Who will take responsibility for the terror attack if the perpetrators, on suicide mission, themselves perished?

Of course the ground staff of Malaysia Airlines and several Malaysian agencies are guilty of gross dereliction of duty. First they allowed two Asian-looking men who were traveling as European citizens to pass unchallenged. Second, they failed to run a check of the men’s stolen passports against Interpol's vast database of more than 40 million lost and stolen travel documents. Just these two preliminary precautions would have prevented the tragedy.

The dice seem to be heavily loaded in favor of China as prime target of the terror attack theory. There are several circumstantial reasons for this and China has repeatedly figured in the entire narrative thrown up so far.

The two prime suspects with "Asian features", who boarded the plane on stolen passports of two Europeans Christian Kozel (Austria) and Luigi Maraldi (Italy), had purchased their one-way tickets together from Pattaya (Thailand) and were due to fly on to Europe from Beijing. This eliminated the need for the duo to apply for a Chinese visa and undergo further checks.

Thailand has had a festering problem for years with Islamist terror outfits like Al-Qaeda in Southeast Asia, and China has suspected some of its restive Uyghur population to be in touch with terror modules in Southeast Asia.

Malaysia itself has figured prominently in the Uighur saga in recent years and Uighurs do have a reason to hate Malaysia, a country which deported several Uighurs to China in 2011 and 2012 for abortive bids to travel on false passports.

Uighurs are a Turkic ethnic group living primarily in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region in China, where they are officially recognized as one of the ethnic minorities. In 2009 violent riots broke out in the region’s capital Ürümqi that mainly targeted Han (ethnic Chinese) people. Over 1,000 Uighurs were arrested and detained during the riots, over 400 individuals faced criminal charges. Nine were executed in November 2009.
However, the most important question is whether there is any linkage between the Malaysia Airlines plane episode and the March 1, 2014, weird attack in the south-western Chinese city of Kunming, in which knife-wielding assailants killed at least 29 innocent people at a train station? The two episodes are too close for comfort for the Chinese. If an inter-connection is established, it would be really very bad news for Beijing.

There may not be any answers to the questions yet but these are leading questions which hopefully should be answered in the next few weeks. Hopefully it would not take very long before the wreckage of the missing plane is spotted and recovered and the Black Box, containing the Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), is recovered now that every major navy in the region is employed and satellites are being used to track the missing flight.

The discovery of the wreckage itself would proffer a clue to whether the plane had a sudden mid-air explosion or whether it nose-dived into the sea because of mechanical failure. A violent bombing would inevitably throw the wreckage to great distances – scores of kilometers at least – while in the latter scenario the wreckage would be confined to a much smaller area.

[Speed of Sound]

Has the projected range charts for this flight been calculated at maximum operating heights/speeds? I noticed the press were saying the aircraft could have decended to as low as 5/6000ft to avoid radar but this would have had a drastic effect on fuel consumption surely.

In your absence, 'projected range charts' have been replaced by 'ping arcs' which allegedly show the last received 'pings' returned to the Inmarsat system.

As these were timed at 08.11 the aircraft would have been at the outer limit of it's range anyway however it was being flown, therefore close to if not already at fuel exhaustion.

[oldoberon]

So if anything comes of this event, has anyone suggested that all aircraft above a certain class (say 12,500 #) be required to be fitted with a GPS tracker?

The cost could be quite minimal. You locate it outside of the pressure vessel, power it from ship power with an E-battery backup good from the time of any reasonable loss of power. i.e., good for 8-10 hours.

These devices already exist and are carried by hikers, skiers, and many people that adventure out into the wilderness alone or in small groups.

The cost to retrofit every airliner and business jet in the world would probably be less than the cost of this search mission alone.

(I KNOW some private jet owners won't want the device, but at least all commercial airlines and air taxi operators could be mandated to fit them.)

Thoughts? I could post links to providers who offer these devices to adventurers, but not looking to advertise for anyone...just the idea here.

surely these devices tell the holder where they are not possible searchers.

WEhat I would like to see ( and I don't care about pilots or bean counters just pax)

A gps receiver and dedicated satcom transponder

Both electrically and physically isolated from all other aircraft systems.

It should be in a rear fuselage location outside the pressure cabin but in it's own enclosed cavity. the power supply should be a separate bus with an inline monitoring device. If system demands too much power of severe fluctuations occur it is disconnected. Disconnection triggers the cavity being filled with nitrogen and loss of signal on the satellite triggers a preset ground plan and notifies crew. All do able in my opinion but one problem I see is polar routes as they must lose sat communication.

[ildarin]

This just in!!!
Time of India reports: Practice runways for Male, Indian, Sri Lankan airports and 1 US military base found on seized flight simulation software.

What do you all make of this?? :sad:


They're in the database I use, too.

That's the way the database comes.

[dicks-airbus]

@Speed of Sound

As these were timed at 08.11 the aircraft would have been at the outer limit of it's range anyway however it was being flown, therefore close to if not already at fuel exhaustion.

Where does the fact come from it was flying at 8.11?

[misd-agin]

evanplus - Not been around here for about 5 days so 'm sorry if this has already been asked.

Has the projected range charts for this flight been calculated at maximum operating heights/speeds? I noticed the press were saying the aircraft could have decended to as low as 5/6000ft to avoid radar but this would have had a drastic effect on fuel consumption surely.


Most, if not all, of the experts have done a poor job of explaining this. If you're operating the aircraft efficiently your fuel flow actually decreases at low altitude(3%, 250kt vs. .84) so your endurance goes up slightly.


The big hit is on your range. Range is cut drastically at lower altitude.


Flying at optimum cruise altitude increases your fuel flow by approx. 3% but your speed increases resulting in a range increase of over 70%.


So endurance is fairly constant while range changes significantly.

[OleOle]

From the low 20,000 foot range to 45,000 feet which as I understand it is above the certified altitude of the 777. So in my mind there are 2 reasons that would explain such deviations in altitude. The first being the aircraft was experiencing mechanical difficulties in which the pilots were having a hard time controlling. Or, the cockpit crew was no longer a part of the equation and some one else was in charge.

A third conceivable reason could be that negative and positive g was introduced deliberately, to detain someone who would wanted to enter the FD.

[mrbigbird]

From crikey.com blog

The head of the Australian Search:

"He wouldn’t be drawn on the possibility that MH370 has come down along the mirror image northern hemisphere arc from which the last known electronic trace from the jet could have come, other than to give the media a lucid explanation as to why both arcs were, signal wise, of equal validity."

Could someone with mapping software plot the mirror image on the Northern Arc of the current declared search area on the southern arc.

My hunch is that this will be smack bang over western Xinjiang, the homeland of the Uygurs.

If that turns out to be the case me thinks we might just have found the plane. Or where it has been hidden.

[Speed of Sound]

Where does the fact come from it was flying at 8.11?

It need not necessarily have been flying, it just needed to be capable of answering the enquiry from the satellite ie. SATCOM system switched on and being provided with sufficient power.

[Dont Hang Up]

From the low 20,000 foot range to 45,000 feet which as I understand it is above the certified altitude of the 777. So in my mind there are 2 reasons that would explain such deviations in altitude. The first being the aircraft was experiencing mechanical difficulties in which the pilots were having a hard time controlling. Or, the cockpit crew was no longer a part of the equation and some one else was in charge.

A third conceivable reason could be that negative and positive g was introduced deliberately, to detain someone would wanted to enter the FD.

A fourth is that their height-finding with primary is not all it should be.

[dicks-airbus]

This just in!!!
Time of India reports: Practice runways for Male, Indian, Sri Lankan airports and 1 US military base found on seized flight simulation software.

What do you all make of this?? :sad:

@ildarin: I read the post that on the flightsim PC specific practices were stored re. these destinations/fields. Who knows, maybe these were especially demanding or had nice scenery. May well mean nothing.

[mrbigbird]

@ speed of sound

I have seen reports that claim the last two pings were at the same location which some suggested could mean it was on the ground.

Given that 59 minutes could have elapsed after landing before that second last pin the plane could actually have been on the ground for 2hrs 59 minutes.

[India Four Two]

As many posters (including me) have stated, an aircraft on MH370's track to SGN at FL350 would have been well below the horizon at the drilling rig's location.

An industry contact, who is in the offshore drilling business, told me that the purported author of the email exists and was working on the rig on the 8th.

Neither the owners of the rig nor the oil company that the rig is working for, was happy with this individual's actions. Not so much due to the unwanted publicity, but due to the deluge of communications from journalists.

Of course, the correct action for an individual in these circumstances would have been to contact the captain ( a drilling rig is a vessel, even though it is mostly anchored) and let him contact the appropriate SAR authority.

My contact speculated that this individual is probably no longer on the rig or even in Vietnam and is unlikely to be employed in the oil industry again.

[Pontius Navigator]

"He wouldn’t be drawn on the possibility that MH370 has come down along the mirror image northern hemisphere arc from which the last known electronic trace from the jet could have come, other than to give the media a lucid explanation as to why both arcs were, signal wise, of equal validity."

A mirror image of the northern arc would be the southern arc. Was that what he meant?

If the image were reversed then it would have been recorded on the other satellite.

[Capn Bloggs]

My contact speculated that this individual is probably no longer on the rig or even in Vietnam and is unlikely to be employed in the oil industry again.
Just culture in action...

[overthewing]

Of course, the correct action for an individual in these circumstances would have been to contact the captain ( a drilling rig is a vessel, even though it is mostly anchored) and let him contact the appropriate SAR authority.

My understanding was that he emailed management in the company for which he works? If he'd told the 'captain' and had his story dismissed, this seems a reasonable course of action to me.

[harrryw]

Correct practice maybe.India four two.but if it turned out that he had reported it and the report dismissed as it will cause us too much trouble and he still considered it correct what else was he to do.
How would suppressing it help the search. I think about the same as Indonesia refusing acccess to the search planes. (I am sure the US would have done the same though)

[dicks-airbus]

@mrbigbird

I have seen reports that claim the last two pings were at the same location which some suggested could mean it was on the ground.

Given that 59 minutes could have elapsed after landing before that second last pin the plane could actually have been on the ground for 2hrs 59 minutes.
So if the above is true re. pings and if they landed, then they landed between the 3rd and 2nd last ping. Take the arc and go backwards along the line of pings with an average speed based on time contact lost minus time of last ping?

[overthewing]

I'm a little puzzled by the Chinese statement that they've 'cleared' all the Chinese pax.

From NY Times:

“China has conducted a thorough investigation, and to date we have not found any signs that any passengers on board the plane participated in destruction or terror attacks,” Mr. Huang said at a news briefing in Kuala Lumpur for Chinese reporters, according to a summary on the website of the state-run People’s Daily newspaper.

Wasn't there one passenger travelling on a Chinese passport, where the passport owner was alive and well and had never lost or mislaid his passport? So do the Chinese government know who that passenger really was, in order to absolve him from suspicion?

[Rightbase]

Not plausible to me that it would burn through the pressure hull to get to the innards without somebody noticing. But I'm not an expert. ;-)

[OleOle]

Could someone with mapping software plot the mirror image on the Northern Arc of the current declared search area on the southern arc.

From my understanding "mirror" means just that. The geometrical problem is symmetrical to the axis satellite<->LKP (from primary radar). Whatever information from previous pings there is, it remains symmetrical.

The southern ocean option probably takes the "flying dutchman" scenario into account, i.e the only conceivable reason why it would be there, is because it flew on a/p until fuel exhaustion.

The designated search area is where max range and ping arc intersect, i.e on the extreme end of the arc. Mirrored to the northern arc that would be in the Caspian Sea or maybe a little earlier due to jetstream? On the northern arc the "flying dutchman" isn't the only option, so it may not have gone in a straight line / great circle.

Thinking about it: If the FMC was in HDG mode the trajectory on the northern branch would have a different shape than on the southern branch. On the norther branch the trajectory would bend away from the center on the southern branch it would bend to the center. Stand to be corrected.

[GlueBall]

Obidiah post #5709 ...can be associated with practical logic, because normal, average reasonable people can one day be overcome with life's challenges, snap, and come off the rails. ...Just as Eqypt Air 990, LAM 470, Silk Air 185, and Ethiopean 702 just last month when the copilot had locked out the captain over Egypt and hijacked himself to Geneva. :{

[FE Hoppy]

Nobody is using hypothetical scenarios to define why to search any area. They are using last known position. Simple as that.

The last known position is anywhere along the north and south corridors.

[FE Hoppy]

Hogger60

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: In the weeds
Posts: 135
Quote:
This guy has come up with a very plausible theory. That is pending that TCAS is based on transponder data which I believe it is?

Shadow plane theory
The formation flying theory just doesn't hold water. This guy's theory is based on finding the SQ flight using TCAS, and then catching the other aircraft and shadowing it. But in the 777 when you turn on the TCAS, you turn on the transponder and ATC will now have a primary return. TCAS and the transponder are integrated. You can't use TCAS alone.
Hogger60 is online now Report Post

You can join up without TCAS.

[G-ARVH]

If there was a Wheel Fire in the main Wheel Well they would get a EICAS Fire Wheel Well Warning and they would have followed the QRH procedure and then declared a Pan or Mayday as required. This would certainly NOT include climbing to FL450 to put out the Fire!!!
( the QRH from memory says to slow below MLO .82/270kias and extend the gear, if the warning continues LAND ASAP. )

Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however let’s assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5

A sequence of events took place that resulted in the crew making a standard left turn after the coms bus was disabled. This action is consistent isn’t it of the crew looking to regain the reciprocal track or at the very least turning off airway. At the same time they would be working through the QRH while trying to get below MLO when events overtook them.

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. It’s good to see the Aussies taking a bigger lead in this investigation along with the Kiwis. They have the resources experience and knowledge of both the Southern and Indian Ocean, and I’m quietly confident they will locate the hull and recover the FDR in the fullness of time. When that happens (and it will happen) we will finally find out how hard the crew worked to save the aircraft and its passengers. When it happens those of you who have been publishing grossly irresponsible comments suggesting the crew committed suicide, or these ludicrous suggestions the aircraft is parked up on some secret 10,000 ft runway that the rest of us conveniently have never heard of, will end up with substantial egg on face.

[aerobat77]

I have to admit my ignorance:

In the T7, if the FMC is in HDG mode, does that mean it follows course over ground, true course or magnetic course ? And likewise if you are e.g. in Phuket and set e.g. Ushuahia as next waypoint, would it automatically follow a great circle ?


in the hdg mode the autopilot will follow a contant heading which will result with wind drift in a different course over ground . heading is set by the heading knob. the final course over ground will also change if winddirection or speed changes over time and the hdg is not readjusted. the fmc has nothing in common with this mode - fmc follows a programmed track or route ( LNAV ) and the autpoliot here corrects by itself for winddrift to maintain a given track .

[Msunduzi]

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. .



And they knew almost exactly where the Helderberg was, he was in communication to the end.

[FE Hoppy]

G-ARVH If there was a Wheel Fire in the main Wheel Well they would get a EICAS Fire Wheel Well Warning and they would have followed the QRH procedure and then declared a Pan or Mayday as required. This would certainly NOT include climbing to FL450 to put out the Fire!!!
( the QRH from memory says to slow below MLO .82/270kias and extend the gear, if the warning continues LAND ASAP. )

Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however let’s assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5

A sequence of events took place that resulted in the crew making a standard left turn after the coms bus was disabled. This action is consistent isn’t it of the crew looking to regain the reciprocal track or at the very least turning off airway. At the same time they would be working through the QRH while trying to get below MLO when events overtook them.

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. It’s good to see the Aussies taking a bigger lead in this investigation along with the Kiwis. They have the resources experience and knowledge of both the Southern and Indian Ocean, and I’m quietly confident they will locate the hull and recover the FDR in the fullness of time. When that happens (and it will happen) we will finally find out how hard the crew worked to save the aircraft and its passengers. When it happens those of you who have been publishing grossly irresponsible comments suggesting the crew committed suicide, or these ludicrous suggestions the aircraft is parked up on some secret 10,000 ft runway that the rest of us conveniently have never heard of, will end up with substantial egg on face.

And how do you explain everything after that?

And what was the fire doing during the climb?

And why would anyone go up when LAND ASAP for SMOKE?

It doesn't hold water.

[Lonewolf_50]

Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however let’s assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5 FWIW: The hole that I see in this analysis is the flight deck crew continuing on the first leg of their route / departure to the handover point and checking out with ATC on VHF with no meniton of a malfunction, nor of a fire, and likewise no record of them contacting on the company ops freq of such a problem. *retracted*
EDIT: for G-ARVH We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. It’s slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning. I'll retract the critique, but leave it up in case someone else was thinking along the same lines. Thanks for clearing up the scenario. :ok:

[Speed of Sound]

The reports that he was a staunch political supporter of Anwar and his party and perhaps even somewhat fanatical toward the democratic cause is also noteworthy.

Aren't most people normal people 'fanatical' about democracy?

Someone who is anti-corruption and pro-democracy is unlikely to use the lives of 240 people to make their point! :ugh:

[GarageYears]

The last known position is anywhere along the north and south corridors.

OK, the arcs define the possible location based on the SATCOM ping, but they are also limited by other factors based on maximum range based on fuel load and minimum airspeed range. We have a last known radar fix, and given the time this occurs we can calculate fuel burn to this point, so this defines the *start* of the following calculation. Next we can calculate the minimum airspeed possible from this point to reach the arc point and corresponding fuel burn - if the aircraft cannot have reached the arc then we know it was traveling at some higher speed (but I don't think that applies). Finally we can calculate the maximum range based on optimum cruise speed/min fuel burn, and plot that point on the arc. These two points define the segments of the corridors that apply. At any point between these limits we have a possible distance flown available based on fuel remaining.

[G-ARVH]

We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. It’s slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.

[dicks-airbus]

There are only two known, proven facts till now:

1) MH370 was at least powered up till last ping received to Inmarsat (8.11).
2) The airframe is still missing.

Everything else (for now) are speculations, from wheel fire, Capt. political/private motives, Chinese terror groups, and so on, and so on.

[wild goose]

Persistent reports in the media as well as posters here refer to a descent to 5000' to "avoid radar".
1) at 5000 ft you are still very visible to radar
2) with no Transponder (and no primary returns) how do they know the a/c was at 5000 ft?
3) if the aircraft was tracked doing this over "two or three countries" then what countries were they? What was the flight path?

Sorry, doesn't make sense.

Also, journalists, why aren't you asking about the pings?
The last ping was on the 40 deg arc. On what arcs were the other pings?

The Malaysians are just not being forthcoming about everything they know, they are worthy of hearty condemnation on this.

[Pontius Navigator]

@ildarin: I read the post that on the flightsim PC specific practices were stored re. these destinations/fields. Who knows, maybe these were especially demanding or had nice scenery. May well mean nothing.

"Practice runways for Male, Indian, Sri Lankan airports and 1 US military base found on seized flight simulation software."


Do MAS fly to any of these runways? Has he ever flown to any of these runways?

Curiously I have been known to go to Google Earth and examine a particular area before visiting it :)

[selfin]

Obidiah post #5709 ...can be associated with practical logic, because normal, average reasonable people can one day be overcome with life's challenges, snap, and come off the rails. ...

If we suppose Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah intelligently masterminded the disappearance of his own aircraft in connection with his political views, then we must consider him sufficiently intelligent to keep the world entertained during his trial. A suicide scenario, involving the murdering of 238 innocent people, is far less of an effective end game than a high profile criminal trial.

Secondly, the steps taken to disappear appear to have been premeditated so it is less convincing to believe it was commissioned by an "average reasonable person coming off the rails."

[oldoberon]

guys
WHO, WHY, WHERE, HOW.

The only thing that is relevant right now is WHERE, the rest can wait

[FE Hoppy]

G-ARVH We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. It’s slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.

How long was it from take off to hull loss?
What altitude?


How did a smouldering fire outside the pressure hull keep burning with enough intensity to burn through the pressure hull as the aircraft cruised at altitude?

Where is the wreck?

How did it keep pining for 6 hours?

Do yourself a favour and pop this in the bobbins file.

[Blake777]

I realise that the Malaysians are never going to say, but I'm thinking recent talk of very low altitude/terrain mapping may be them trying to explain discrepancies in their primary radar data. Like - why they picked up an unidentified aircraft at some points but not others (land over Malay Peninsula).

There is a video of a 777 re-enacted flight in the New Straits Tines where there was no secret that the Malaysians were toying with terrain mapping to "recreate primary radar and satellite data". Reading between the lines it's obvious the aircraft got through their defences that night.

[Dak Man]

Possible sighting in Maldives

Malaysian Airlines MH370: live - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10704769/Malaysian-Airlines-MH370-live.html)

[AnQrKa]

Murder/Suicide generally has no political motivation. This could be such a case. Instead of the lone nutter in the mall with an assault rifle, take your life along with 240 new friends in a jet.

Its happened before.

[IcePack]

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/534459-ey461-toilet-fires.html

Now theirs a thought:eek:

[India Four Two]

Just culture in action...
Capn Bloggs,

True, but in this case, Western culture.

overthewing and harryw,

I take your points, but going up the chain of command would have been the first thing to do and if that didn't work, a more discreet public announcement would have been less career-limiting.

[onetrack]

The aircraft flew into the Southern section of the Indian Ocean until it ran out of motion lotion, that much seems to be the most likely scenario at this point - until further fact-backed info comes to hand.
Why else are there 5 Orions and a Poseidon searching that area as from tomorrow, local time? It's because nearly everything points to that spot.

Thus we can believe with a reasonable degree of certainty, that the aircraft was still fully flyable until the end. That puts a fire right out of the ball park.
Whether the aircraft flew on AP until it dropped out of the sky as part of a plan - or whether it did a Helios, we will only know when the wreckage is found.
I'm not normally a betting man, but I'll wager there's a very good chance some wreckage will be found in the next week or two.
One thing in favour of a recovery from the Indian Ocean is the area is deep enough for subs to operate, unlike the Gulf of Thailand.

As regards the military interception capabilities - you can spend $100B on the finest military equipment the U.S. or Russia or China can provide - but it's only as good as the abilities and motivation of the guys driving it.
In the case of numerous SE Asian countries, those abilities and motivation are currently lacking - and the reason being, there's no real elevated tensions or major military threats in the region.
A few riots and demonstrations in Thailand are just part of the run-of-the-mill life for these people.
Crony capitalism and nepotism rules, pay the bribes, get on with life. No-one's currently looking to invade anyone elses country.
A little skirmish or two over the Spratleys is no reason for Thailand, Malaysia or even Vietnam to be on full invasion alert.

As far as the Captain and FO go, I'll also lay some money we'll end up finding out these guys were heroes, not baddies.

[Speed of Sound]

Do we actually know that information is available from pings prior to the published 'last ping' at 08.11?

Somewhere earlier in this thread, a poster who seemed familiar with Inmarsat protocols suggested that the log of SATCOM responses is overwritten with each new response which means that only the final ping data exists. As earlier, hourly pings will only reveal a series of concentric arcs that show no more than that the aircraft was 'in the area', there seems no reason to withhold them.

[averow]

The news item is very intriguing. The only issue I have
Is why did it take so long for this purported sighting in the
Maldives To hit the media ? Puzzling....

[kcockayne]

Hogger60.

When you switch on the TCAS & Transponder you DO NOT then get a primary return. You get a sqawk & a height readout (Modes A & C) from the transponder (unless Mode c is switched off - & if it is, you won't get TCAS advisory).
A Primary return is a blip of reflected electro magnetic energy, which contains NO coded information &, therefore, NO a/c identifying info. It is therefore, useless for TCAS purposes.

[funfly]

The most likely scenario seems to be the suggestion made of a technical problem, whoever was flying turned sharp left, possibly to get back to nearest runway, then without further input aircraft continued until fuel used.

The spanner in the works is the last verbal transmission attributed to the second officer - a seemingly 'normal' response after what seems to have been a traumatic event.

How 'normal' an R/T response this would be from a professional pilot I would question. It would surely be relevant to hear his level of R/T on his other flights, much this was in or out of character could say a lot.

[kenjaDROP]

@mrbigbird
@dicks-airbus

How do you account for the possibility of being stationary for 2 hours 59 mins....and it being possibly landed for this period?

The investigators monitoring the 'pings' - by time- or attenuation-shift, or whichever way they have managed to do it - have confirmed a strong probability of the last two 'pings' indicating transmission from the same location. Obviously they would have seen shift between the 2nd-from-last 'ping' and the penultimate, indicating the a/c was still moving at least up to the penultimate 'ping'. Minimum one hour in the same place, maximum ??? (once the 'pings' stopped).

Ditch into ocean, empty tanks, no major hull breach....one hour of buoyancy?

[StrongEagle]

D.S. - Put yourself in the Malaysians position. This is their 9/11. They have never had to deal with anything like this before.
MAS has an excellent safety record, they're not African cowboys, despite the occasional laxity in procedures.
They're obliged to hand out some info, they're no doubt working with conflicting basic data that has to be analysed and re-analysed to ensure erroneous information is discarded.

Perhaps MAS is doing all it can, but an article in Malaysia Today suggests that the plane could have (and should have) been intercepted by Malaysian Air Force jets, had they not been asleep at the wheel.

Air Force caught napping. MH370 could have been saved | Malaysia Today (http://www.malaysia-today.net/air-force-caught-napping-mh370-could-have-been-saved/)

[jugofpropwash]

I don't think the following is very likely - but then, we ran out of likely scenarios a week ago.

Someone suggested the possibility of the crew/passengers being exposed to toxic fumes. At some point we were told that a large shipment of mangosteens was on board. Is it possible that the fruit was over ripe/rotting and fermented? Could fumes from fermenting fruit have gotten into the cabin air supply and slowly intoxicated the crew, causing stranger and stranger actions?

[Pontius Navigator]

Persistent reports in the media as well as posters here refer to a descent to 5000' to "avoid radar".
1) at 5000 ft you are still very visible to radar.

Only on a flat earth within 88 miles of the radar head.

[MPN11]

Ground Master 400 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Master_400)

Ground Master GM 400 403 406 Thales Raytheon 3D air defense radar technical data sheet pictures - Army Recognition - Army Recognition (http://www.armyrecognition.com/france_french_army_military_equipment_uk/ground_master_gm_400_403_406_thales_raytheon_3d_air_defense_ radar_technical_data_sheet_pictures.html)

Sadly no mention of height finder accuracy, which might have separated wheat from chaff in the various 'pronouncements' from KUL.

[Neogen]

Now this is getting interesting:

Thailand’s military said on Tuesday that its radar detected a plane that may have been Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

Mr. Montol said that at 1-28 a.m., Thai military radar “was able to detect a signal, which was not a normal signal, of a plane flying in the direction opposite from the MH370 plane,” back toward Kuala Lumpur. The plane later turned right, toward Butterworth, a Malaysian city along the Strait of Malacca. The radar signal was infrequent and did not include any data such as the flight number.

They released this info after 10 days..

When asked why it took so long to release the information, Mr. Montol said, “Because we did not pay any attention to it. The Royal Thai Air Force only looks after any threats against our country, so anything that did not look like a threat to us, we simply look at it without taking actions.”

Does it change existing assumptios?

[Fake Sealion]

The release of the Thai radar observation after 10 days is jaw dropping. Surely this was discussed with the Malaysians/US etc and has been discounted days ago and has been misleadingly entitled "just released"? ?

[OleOle]

Do we actually know that information is available from pings prior to the published 'last ping' at 08.11?

I haven't looked into the docs (http://legacy.icao.int/anb/panels/acp/meetings/amcp2/) yet (thanks techgeek). How stuff (pings) is logged in the space equipment and then downlinked is probably not covered by the spec. At some point I was afraid logs could have been overwritten (I no longer am).

Earlier I reasoned/estimated on technical grounds why i would expect the precision derived of the pings to be better than 5km. I hope I do find something on the precision in the spec.

It was officially stated that primary radar track was correlated to sat ping arcs. That statement IMHO only makes sense
- if sat pings are sufficiently precise
- AND pings form the first two hours of flight (during primary radar coverage) are still in the log.

So all pings should be in the log, probably even pings from earlier flights or when the a/c was parked at the gate. Those earlier pings in the log from a definitely known (parking) position can even be used to calibrate the measurement of in flight pings to a better precision.

*IF* the precision is actually that good (5km), then taking into account known wind drift and making assumption on a/p settings (FMC versus HDG - Thanks aerobat77 ) and TAS I would expect you can come up with some pretty precise estimations of the flight path.

P.S.: This is only educated conjecture !! (But i think supported by the fact of SAR equipment being rushed to the south)

[OldDutchGuy]

Depending on "which" freighter this one is, it is either apparently 58 meters long, or 81 meters long. Either way, for a displacement hull operating a full throttle it would not make more than 12 knots. There is an upper limit correlated to the square root of the waterline length on a displacement hull after which point you can add infinite power and the hull will not move any faster (you get a huge wake wave, though! :)).

The more interesting question is: what is a tiny freighter doing way down there? Such smaller boats are typically coastal freighter. Could be a fish-processing or whale-processing vessel. Dunno. Just guessing. Don't count on that crew in those waters to spot any aircraft flotsam. Or spend effort hauling it in.

[Widger]

Even more confusion. When the first report about the Maldives broke, i though okay, it must be Somalia then, especially if you extend the satellitte arc around the globe, Somalia looks good. Then i read witnesses saying it was heading north to south east. That will either be it piling into the base at Diego Garcia, mistaken directional awareness of the witnesses or it was a USAF aircraft returning to DG.

Another Red Herring probably.

[grimmrad]

Maldives position (the island Kudahuvadhoo) does not fall on the satellites arc of assumed last position/ping. So, either the satellite information is wrong or the "eye witnesses" are off/a hoax. I'd lean more towards the latter but at this time with all the information disaster in front of us...

The German news outlet "Die Welt" reports in their online article (http://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article125925632/Malediven-Bewohner-berichten-von-tieffliegendem-Flugzeug.html)
"Die Berichte von Größe und Farbe des mysteriösen Flugzeugs stimmten mit der Maschine der Malaysia Airline überein." = Reports of the size and color scheme of the mysterious plane are in concordance with a plane of Malaysia Airlines."

[ZOOKER]

When the Maldives sighting report first appeared on the Daily Telegraph website, the time was quoted (as far as I recall) as about 0615 local. It also mentioned that it was low enough for the observers to make out the a/c doors.
The information is not on the latest update. Surely if the doors were visible, the logo/colour-scheme would be too? Could they possibly mean the lights in the cabin? Would it still be dark in The Maldives at that time in the morning?

[Speed of Sound]

*IF* the precision is actually that good (5km), then taking into account known wind drift and making assumption on a/p settings (FMC versus HDG - Thanks aerobat77 ) and TAS I would expect you can come up with some pretty precise estimations of the flight path.

Am I missing something here?


Surely these additional pings would just give us a series of extra arcs that tell us nothing more than the average speed for each hourly portion of the flight and whether the aircraft was traveling away from or towards the satellite?

[wingspan68]

This is a forum and in such, members can publish whatever they want as long as they follow the rules. The MH370 event is for all of us an incredible and unreproducible event. I appreciate to read other opinions and ideas what could have happened and everybody can make his own conclusion. All I can say is, that since 9/11 for me EVERYTHING can be possible, think outside the box. All I can do is hoping the best but expecting the worst...

[oldoberon]

Do we actually know that information is available from pings prior to the published 'last ping' at 08.11?

Somewhere earlier in this thread, a poster who seemed familiar with Inmarsat protocols suggested that the log of SATCOM responses is overwritten with each new response which means that only the final ping data exists. As earlier, hourly pings will only reveal a series of concentric arcs that show no more than that the aircraft was 'in the area', there seems no reason to withhold them.

if they were over written we would have been told ( because no one wld be guilty of anything)

There are reason to not produce them I gave a hypothesis where by I believe it would be possible to show to show it was on a constant track/hdg but have no idea what it was or where in the area it was.

However I argue a constant track/hdg is more indicative of a southern route than a northern (nothing to detect them down there.

The excellent maps showing the fuel range, satellite 40 ring and Jorn short the southern arc considerably albeit it leaves the most inaccessible section of it as the target.

Right now it appears more effort is being focused south

[flash8]

Captain Shah's wife and 3 kids walked out on him

Means nothing, just as Tsu's alleged (and I mean just that) debts meant nothing, scurrilous, the crew are totally innocent until proven otherwise beyond reasonable doubt.

This focus on the crew is simply the most convenient way to scapegoat as the media have to focus upon something supposedly tangible.

[Pontius Navigator]

Flash, sadly the crew are tangible whereas person or persons unknown are not.

In the case of the former it would be negligent of the authorities not to consider one or both to be culpable.

As they are also re-examining the passenger list, and I would hope the cabin crew, they may have additional persons to consider in greater detail.

[Speed of Sound]

Each range will curtail the final arc.

Will it?

In fact I will modify my previous post to say that the arcs will not even give an average speed of the aircraft unless it is flying to or from the satellite on a radial.

In themselves, the previous pings tell us virtually nothing.

[GlueBall]

This focus on the crew is simply the most convenient way to scapegoat as the media have to focus upon something supposedly tangible.

It's hard to imagine a NON CREW to have the sophisticated knowledge of B777 systems and flying skills to operate with such cunning precision as such.

[FE Hoppy]

the outer most points of the final arc are based on long range cruise from last radar position.

That creates range at time points outwards from last known radar position. If any range from ping arc falls inside the equivalent range from last known position ring it reduces the range from that time.

Also if any range from ping arc falls completely outside the range from last known position ring then the aircraft was flying faster than long range cruise and this also reduces the further maximum range.

and the same applies for maximum speed calculations and minimum speed calculations.

[rcsa]

Maybe the Capt had practiced approaches to Male, DG, and other locations because as a keen flight sim enthusiast and 15,000 HR commander who presumably often operated over the Indian Ocean he wanted to see what the approach patterns were for airfields that he might one day need to divert to?

All the airfields that people are getting excited about are listed alternates for IOR ETOPS. Chugging around Africa in a C-182 I often check out the approaches and obstacles on possible alternates even if I have no intention of landing at them. It's common sense, not conspiracy.

[Tfor2]

More twisted info. he and his wife had been apart many months and his 3 children are all adults and live their own lives.

Where does this info come from?

[oldoberon]

Am I missing something here?


Surely these additional pings would just give us a series of extra arcs that tell us nothing more than the average speed for each hourly portion of the flight and whether the aircraft was traveling away from or towards the satellite?

NOT TRUE.

if you flew at 90deg to the rings the 1hr period would carry you the maximum distance from the previous ring. If you flew at a true tangent to the previous ring the distance from it to the next ring would be the minimum (same distance flown but less distance out from previous ring.

If that variance was constant each hour it indicates aircraft on a consistent course but no indication to what that course would be, I did state in the original post way back assuming a constant speed ( as that is what the seem to be assuming.

However to me a consistent course equals south

[Token Bird]

Going back to this lovely map with the arcs and the concentric range circles (http://tmfassociates.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MH370_Mar17.jpg) where on each arc would the aircraft had reached if it just continued flying at its last known speed?

Would the point of intersection of the southern arc and a circle representing range at last known speed be around the same area the Australians and Kiwis are currently searching?

[DaveReidUK]

if they were over written we would have been told (because no one wld be guilty of anything)Either that, or it's simply the case that up to now nobody asked the only people (Inmarsat) who were in a position to answer the question.

But I'm struggling to see what would be the point of the satellite keeping a log of historical ping acknowledgments, so overwriting old data in a circular buffer makes perfect sense.

There are reason to not produce them I gave a hypothesis where by I believe it would be possible to show to show it was on a constant track/hdg but have no idea what it was or where in the area it was.Even if the previous pings had been available, that would only have provided a set of concentric arcs in a chronological sequence. There would be an infinite number of hypothetical tracks that could intersect the series of arcs.

[mach411]

In themselves, the previous pings tell us virtually nothing.

Most likely yes but not necessarily.

There are at least two possibilities that would tell us something:

1) The difference in distance to the aircraft between consecutive pings is close to the max distance the aircraft could have flown in the time between pings. This would mean the aircraft was flying either directly away or directly towards the satellite.

2) All or several pings measured the same distance to the aircraft. This would mean the aircraft was either stationary or flying exactly along the equi-distant radius to the satellite.

[OleOle]

If the a/c was in HDG mode it would have followed a loxodrome (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhumb_line). Each heading gives a different loxodrom. Simply speaking each of these loxodromes can be seen as curves (not circle segments!) around the point where IOR is in the Zenith. Loxodromes with higher curvature will produce higher differences in ping times. Thus you can derive the heading of the loxodrome.

In reality the calculations to fit the loxodromes to the ping and wind data will be quite complicated. Something like this must have been done to get to the courses which are depicted in the press kid from AMSA.

[oldoberon]

Re post 5682: Oloberon said "surely these devices tell the holder where they are not possible searchers."

No, these devices broadcast the GPS-derived position to satellites and alert searchers to the location via text message etc.

Google "spot personal emergency locator beacon"

Many pilots own such things and carry them in whatever aircraft they may be flying.

Apologies, for some reason I can't actually quote in this forum, don't know why, so you'll have to scroll back to better see the context.

.

thanks for the correction.

[tuj]

AIS data is notoriously unreliable. The AIS system is meant to prevent collisions between ships, and for that purpose it works well. There are a number of large multinational firms as well as government that subscribe to the AIS satellite and terrestrial coverage. There are two constellations of civilian satellites I am aware of that can pick up the AIS transmissions; there are probably more that are military/intelligence.

I worked extensively with a large AIS dataset for several years. We often times would see vessels with incorrect IMO numbers, duplicate vessels (in different positions) or even vessels located in the middle of Africa or Siberia. Part of this is due to how the transmissions arrive at the satellite; the transmissions can 'collide' and the satellite gets confused as to the true transmissions that are arriving simultaneously. This means that using the AIS data requires several layers of data cleansing.

Speed was notoriously unreliable on AIS and does not correspond with distance traveled for a vessel track. We would sometimes see vessels traveling at an indicated 100kt; obviously impossible. We would ignore speed and compute a vector based on the last two positions and elapsed time. Destination is also unreliable on AIS as it is entered by the crew and often times they will forget to change it after leaving a port.

Finally, AIS transmitters are deliberately turned off around the horn of Africa, mainly to avoid detection by pirates.

Spoofing an AIS signal would be trivial for anyone as well who wanted some type of 'civilian' cover.

[jugofpropwash]

In themselves, the previous pings tell us virtually nothing.

Not quite. Repeated pings on the same circle would strongly suggest the aircraft on the ground and still transmitting. Also, the location of earlier pings would give dual locations (north and south) and times for the countries overflown to do a very careful search of the radar and/or confirm possible visual sightings.

[grimmrad]

To all who do not want to believe that the crew might be involved (and I can totally understand why, they are your peers): There are 200+ people on board, two of them we know are trained to fly a T7 - who would be your first suspect (albeit shouldn't be your only one)?

[mbriscoe]

In relation to those vessel tracker and marine traffic websites they work by volunteers feeding in the VHF AIS data frequency exactly like flight radar 24 so if there out of coverage of the nearest feeder it will only show the last position of the vessel when it had coverage.

I believe you can pay $300 a month to marine traffic and get the vessels position by satcom.

The ship tracking websites work in the same way as the aircraft tracking ones, i.e. using volunteers. But it seems unlikely that there are any volunteers in the middle of the Indian Ocean so those tracks must have been uploaded by a ship via satellite.

There are sometimes errors in the AIS data and some aircraft and helicopters, particularly SAR ones, transmit AIS. These tend to only have a MMSI, i.e. no IMO.

[sky9]

I have doubt's about the crew, I really can't see anyone climbing 2000ft above max alt especially at the weight they were likely to be at. I suspect that the aircraft climbed at full power ran out of speed then dropped down to FL295 if that's what it did.

[GlueBall]

commander who presumably often operated over the Indian Ocean he wanted to see what the approach patterns were for airfields that he might one day need to divert to? All the airfields that people are getting excited about are listed alternates for IOR ETOPS.

ETOPS alternate airports in the Indian ocean? A current check of MH System Timetable destinations and routes shows no service and no routings across the southern Indian ocean. MH does not operate in the southern Indian ocean south of Male. :ooh:

[Airbubba]

Spoofing an AIS signal would be trivial for anyone as well who wanted some type of 'civilian' cover.

Here's a report of an AIS spoofing demo:

The Guys Who Can Make Oil Tankers Disappear, Virtually - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/guys-make-oil-tankers-disappear-virtually/story?id=20565851)

VHF ACARS (and possibly CPDLC) is similarly vulnerable from what I see.

[Chief Whip]

How confident are the authorities of the radar fix at 02:15 which has MH370 heading West? For me this fix and the two current search areas just don't match up. in my view either the 02:15 fix is wrong or they are searching in the wrong area?

[Neogen]

How confident are the authorities of the radar fix at 02:15 which has MH370 heading West? For me this fix and the two current search areas just don't match up. in my view either the 02:15 fix is wrong or they are searching in the wrong area?

This can be triangulated with data from Indonesia and Thailand. Thailand has shared their data after 10 days.. so lets see if there is any new update tomorrow

[Pontius Navigator]

It's hard to imagine a NON CREW to have the sophisticated knowledge of B777 systems and flying skills to operate with such cunning precision as such.

We know there were two people on board who were knowledgeable about the aircraft. Only two?

[Speed of Sound]

2) All or several pings measured the same distance to the aircraft. This would mean the aircraft was either stationary or flying exactly along the equi-distant radius to the satellite.

It wouldn't even tell us that as it is feasible that the track flown could be backwards and forwards across the line. Pretty unlikely granted, but with a +/-5km error it is not outside the bounds of probability.

I accept however that the final two pings being the same distance from the satellite would strongly suggest a stationary aircraft and more coincident arcs than that would suggest the aircraft is on land and not in the process of sinking or drifting and therefore likely to be on the 'northern arc'. Those are the only conditions that I see the prior pings being of any help to the search.

[dicks-airbus]

@twothree: Your explanation does not explain why the flight then continued via various waypoints...

Also there is perhaps a simple explanation why the search is south. Because the north end of the arc is not really accessable (politically) for a large scale search.

[Romeo E.T.]

not B777 rated , but 0ver 10K hours on B737's, I have been thinking about this for a while.

I cannot help but still think its a catastrophic loss of electrical power, similar to to uncapping the battery switch and turning it off.......poof...instant darkness, no back up stby power....just total silence.

The engines will continue to work, being totally capable of suction feed only, as long as no large thrust changes are made.
The hydraulics will still operate as the hydraulic solenoids are only capable of being turned-off with electrical power, and without electrical power they are designed to default to open.

but Autopilot, autoflight systems, avionics, radios ACARS etc and vitally important pressurization will all fail.
If the crew were rendered unconscious thru this, the aircraft could well start a series of climbs and descends because the thin air at 35000ft is not conducive to aerodynamic stable flight.....but once it gets into thicker air at about 20000ft, the aerodynamic forces will allow the aircraft to reach a relatively stable flight regime, especially if the aircraft was in a cruise trimmed position at 35000ft.

the climb to 45000ft also makes sense w.r.t electrical failure......MACH TRIM......the aircraft has a tendency to tuck nose down at high cruise mach numbers, so the electrical mach trimmer applies some "nose-up trim" and then balances this with applied forward deflection of the control column........the loss of electrical power and the aircraft would release its forward control column input, hence the climb, into even thinner air, followed by phugoid action, as it would drop off at the top, eventually it would settle into an "in-trim" cruise at a much lower more dense atmosphere

Why the turn, I cannot explain

[twothree]

Must have missed that about it flew to other waypoints. Which ATC stations noticed it?

[aviator1970]

@Romeo
why do you think pressurisation would fail?

[paull]

I clearly stated you would not get the heading

I understand all the wrinkles, but assuming constant heading and some assumption about cruise speed, you will actually get a track/position. (Actually 2 in most cases).

If the circles are relatively close together in time, it is flying north (or Sth, depending on the circles), if they are wide apart (or don't change) then it is flying E or W. Anything in between can be worked out with some assumption about cruise speed, possibly even without, I'll have to think about it.

[Not a great example, sort of assumes the satellite is sitting over the pole, which it isn't but it does not really change the viability. Also noted OldOberon post which I failed to credit and should have.]

[arearadar]

After contact was lost, no secondary, track unknown how were these later `sightings` identified as being MH370.
Pure speculation.

[oldoberon]

I understand all the wrinkles, but assuming constant heading and some assumption about cruise speed, you will actually get a track/position. (Actually 2 in most cases).

If the circles are relatively close together in time, it is flying north (or Sth, depending on the circles), if they are wide apart (or don't change) then it is flying E or W. Anything in between can be worked out with some assumption about cruise speed, possibly even without, I'll have to think about it.

You obviously understand this better than me, all I could see would be a constant spacing (assuming constant cruise speed) equals a constant hdg/trk but thought it would /could be anyone one of miilions of tangents with respect to the circle or arc of it.

The fact that it has made someone think about it and get even more info from the scenario is good enough.

BTW i assumed constant speed because a) i think on auto pilot and b) references to cruise speed.

[FE Hoppy]

@Romeo

Tell me again what Mach trim does?

[paxrune]

Re the Maldives witnesses who claim the plane was so low and close they could "see the doors" -- well, did they happen to catch the word "MALAYSIA" on the side!? Did the media care to ASK this rather important question?

These witness reports are remarkably weak.

[Mark in CA]

Interesting article.

FiveThirtyEight | How Statisticians Could Help Find That Missing Plane (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-statisticians-could-help-find-flight-370/)

[aviator1970]

As the aircraft speed increases in the transonic regime... the cp tends to move back causing the nose to to dip downwards... a Mach trim counters this nose down movement by deflecting the stabilizer.... true in a B737 NG above .61 mach...

[Msunduzi]

Re the Maldives witnesses who claim the plane was so low and close they could "see the doors" -- well, did they happen to catch the word "MALAYSIA" on the side!? Did the media care to ASK this rather important question?

These witness reports are remarkably weak.



You are assuming the witnesses can read, may be the description was a way to describe how close for people who can not read.

Maybe not weak, maybe just allowing for the ability of the witnesses

[alanda]

Maldives uses dhivehi, not roman script.

[Pontius Navigator]

all I could see would be a constant spacing (assuming constant cruise speed) equals a constant hdg/trk but thought it would /could be anyone one of miilions of tangents with respect to the circle or arc of it.

I may misunderstand this but if there was constant spacing (between rings?) then it would indicate flight along a radial from the nadir.

Any other angle would eventually result in flight on the tangent or for a short time effectively along the ring.

[UNCTUOUS]

Couple of questions for the cognoscenti among us:

a. If an FMS ground test set (such as the FMZ-2000 - used to replicate flight on the ground in a static aircraft) was plugged into the FMS in the avionics bay, would it have precedence over cockpit inputs (whether or not they remained intact and plugged in)?

b. There'd be a headset jack plug in the avionics bay for AVbay to flight deck liaison comms I'd imagine?

[overthewing]

Re the Maldives witnesses who claim the plane was so low and close they could "see the doors" -- well, did they happen to catch the word "MALAYSIA" on the side!? Did the media care to ASK this rather important question?

I agree it seems a little serendipitous. However, my own experience of low-flying a/c is that by the time I've heard it and raced outside, I'm looking at a plane moving away from me, with little chance of reading any writing on the side. I imagine the 'doors' they mention may well be the undercarriage bay doors.

[deadheader]

We touched on the oft displayed denial in this thread, oh about 100 pages ago now (hard to keep up!). Lets at least try to keep pace with the investigation if possible :ok:

If you really must persist with mechanical/tech incidents/scenarios occurring at precisely the moment of ATC handover & during what is statistically the safest phase of flight, against the direction of the professional investigation it must be said, then you first have to reconcile one of the few knowns:

A left turn was entered into the FMS & reported by ACARS before comms went offline & before someone in the cockpit communicated with ATC for the last time [without alerting ATC of any unfolding drama].


Please do try to keep up ;)

[tdracer]

Which raises the question as to whether 7.5 hours of fuel would be enough to reach Somalia at that sort of altitude (say about 5000 feet or lower)?

IF they were at 5k in an effort to dodge radar, as soon as they were a few hundred miles into the Indian Ocean, they could easily climb back to normal cruise altitudes to maximize the range with little risk of radar detection (assuming they continued to head away from land).

I keep thinking about that hostage/kidnapping scenario - if that was it, and it went well, I'd think that by now we would have heard something like a ransom demand.
Suppose it was intended to be a hostage/kidnapping scenario, but it went badly somehow. Perhaps dodging radar, etc. burned more fuel than anticipated and they ran out and crashed short of the destination, or there was an attempt to take the airplane back and it crashed (think United 93). Rather than admit their master plan had failed, have the would be terrorists/kidnappers instead stayed quiet and let the world wonder?

[snowfalcon2]

A few tidbits on this topic:

- AIS is not mandatory for ships less than 300 tons dw. Neither for military ships, I believe. So don't expect AIS from every rescue ship.

- An AIS transponder (i.e. a transmitter which makes your ship visible to others) identifies the ship using its MMSI number, same as its phone number on VHF DSC.

- IMO number is meant for larger ships (over 300 tdw). I copied this list from Wikipedia:

The IMO scheme does not however apply to:

Vessels solely engaged in fishing
Ships without mechanical means of propulsion
Pleasure yachts
Ships engaged on special service (e.g. lightships, SAR vessels)
Hopper barges
Hydrofoils, air cushion vehicles
Floating docks and structures classified in a similar manner
Ships of war and troopships
Wooden ships[1]


Note that SAR vessels don't need an IMO number.

As said, AIS main use is collision warning (much as TCAS, but closer to ADS-B) while the tracking function is an extra goodie.

I've had an AIS receiver in my sailing boat for a number of years and now have an AIS transponder (an approx $400 investment). Very good piece of safety equipment.

[GarageYears]

One very important piece of data I haven't seen *confirmed* is the aircraft fuel load. Obviously this dictates range. I believe MAS stated the loaded was "normal" and no "extra fuel" was loaded, but that begs the question what was normal for this route? Were they tankering fuel? :hmm:

[GlueBall]

One very important piece of data I haven't seen *confirmed* is the aircraft fuel load. Obviously this dictates range. I believe MAS stated the loaded was "normal" and no "extra fuel" was loaded, but that begs the question what was normal for this route? Were they tankering fuel?

What difference does it make....?

Airborne at 0041....last recorded satellite "ping" at 0811. Fuel: 7:30

[D.S.]

deadheader (http://www.pprune.org/members/358999-deadheader) said

If you really must persist with mechanical/tech incidents/scenarios occurring at precisely the moment of ATC handover & during what is statistically the safest phase of flight, against the direction of the professional investigation it must be said, then you first have to reconcile one of the few knowns:

A left turn was entered into the FMS & reported by ACARS before comms went offline & before someone in the cockpit communicated with ATC for the last time [without alerting ATC of any unfolding drama].I would add; two even more reliable knowns, that are extremely important and near impossible to reconcile, need to be addressed in such a scenario

- ACARS never sent emergency transmissions indicating a system failure anywhere on board

- Flight continues for hours, meaning whatever the 'catastrophic event that took out all the systems' was, it seemingly did not effect auto-pilot at all

[Finn47]

Originally posted by Zooker:

Would it still be dark in The Maldives at that time in the morning?Sunrise in the Maldives on March 8 was at 06:15, same exact time as sightings were made, according to local press reports, so it would have been possible to see an aircraft passing by.

[D.S.]

What we know* timeline
(*or at least have a separate "unidentified official" verification on from a reputable source)

- 1:07 - ACARS last transmission (thru VHF) which apparently includes notation of a WP change having been entered into system since last scheduled report at 12:37
- 1:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite?)
- 1:19 - 'Alright, Good Night' at handover (supposedly by co-pilot)
- 1:22 - Transponder goes off
(note: those previous two might be reversed, we have multiple sources seemingly confirming both possibilities. One happened at 1:19, one at 1:22 though. I'm putting them in this order mainly because...)
- 1:22 - Plane goes out of range/black from Thailand Radar (likely from the transponder going black and not the plane going out of range)
- 1:28 - Unidentified plane shows up on Thailand Radar roughly off the Kota Bharu, Malaysia coast (at Malaysia/Thailand border) and this apparently shows plane crossing the Peninsula to the Straights of Malacca (unknown endtime for this path)
- somewhere between 1:15-1:30 - Vietnam sees plane turn around.
(note: they have not told us a specific time of turn or if they know this because of a Military or ATC radar hit, but they told Malaysia they 'watched plane turn around' sometime shortly after contact was lost)
- roughly 1:30-forward, Vietnam is "frantically" trying to contact the plane
- 1:37 - ACARS misses scheduled transmission
- 1:30-1:45 - at minimum 11 eye witness reports from around and past the Kota Bharu, Malaysia/Thailand border areas (including one saying 'plane descending fast' like one of the later radar hits indicates)
- 2:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite)
- between 1:30-2:40 - Malaysian Military and Civilian radar picks up an "unidentified" plane flying over peninsula (Daud says "this was corroborated by civilian radar" in the March 9th press conference). Those include a couple radar WP hits we have specifically been told about* (and who knows how many that haven't been provided/leaked):
... VAMPI
... GIVAL
... IGREX
(note: we are not sure of the timing of the radar hits, and there is very contradictory evidence here. The most recent seemingly-official time is 2:15 for the last hit. Which hit that was, we don't know for sure)
post 2:15/or/2:40 apparent absolute complete blackout of plane (except...)
- 3:11 - INMARSAT ping received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite)
- 4:11 - INMARSAT ping received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite)
- 5:11 - INMARSAT ping received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite)
- 6:11 - INMARSAT ping received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite)
- 7:11 - INMARSAT ping received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite) near 40 Degree line
- 7:24 - Statement released by Malaysian Officials saying contact lost at 2:40 and SAR efforts are underway
- 8:11 - INMARSAT ping received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite) (thru Satellite) on 40 Degree line

*those way-points on map
http://mothership.sg/v2/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/mh370-diverted-path.jpg

(Note on map: the Thailand radar data, as we understand it, indicates a straight path from IGARI to VAMPI is not possible, so there are more unknown/unreleased turns in there somewhere. Please do not read that map as a 'straight flight' from WP to WP; it was not a straight path over the peninsula, in the very least)

Anyone have any other times to add and/or corrections? Would like to keep this as updated and accurate as possible for all, and any input is welcome! (just, want to keep it to things cross verified, so please keep that in mind if suggesting other times - that is why things like the possible post-1:30 JapanBoundFlight/MH88 call is not included here)

[SLFplatine]

A very low flying "jumbo jet" (a 747 or an A380 is a jumbo jet but we will let that pass) was purportedly spotted over the Maldives 0615 local 8 March -10 days ago, and yet so precise about the time? But we will let that pass also.
0615 local Maldives is 0115UTC ; MH370 departed KL 0030 local which is 1730 UTC (7 March) -by my math that puts the plane as having been airborne at the time of this possible Maldives sighting for 7 hrs 45 and likely about or completely out of fuel.....:ugh:

[Pontius Navigator]

D.S.

I would explain the apparent inconsistency on the IGARI-VAMPI leg, and indeed the other straight lines, as journalistic simplification given the scale of the map. They may also have chosen to ignore non-radar sources.

[INTEL101]

A few days ago, a former pilot named Chris Goodfellow articulated an entirely different theory on Google+.

This theory fits the facts.

And it's one of the most plausible yet:
Shortly after takeoff, as Malaysia 370 was flying out over the ocean, just after the co-pilot gave his final "Good night" sign-off to Malaysia air traffic control, smoke began filling the cockpit, perhaps from a tire on the front landing gear that had ignited on takeoff.

The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do: turn the plane toward the closest airport so he could land.

The closest appropriate airport was called Pulau Langkawi. It had a massive 13,000-foot runway. The captain programmed the destination into the flight computer. The autopilot turned the plane west and put it on a course right for the runway (the same heading the plane turned to).

The captain and co-pilot tried to find the source of the smoke and fire. They switched off electrical "busses" to try to isolate it, in the process turning off systems like the transponder and ACARs automated update system (but not, presumably, the autopilot, which was flying the plane). They did not issue a distress call, because in a midair emergency your priorities are "aviate, navigate, communicate" — in that order. But smoke soon filled the cockpit and overwhelmed them (a tire fire could do this). The pilots passed out or died.

Smoke filled the cabin and overwhelmed and distracted the passengers and cabin crew ... or the cockpit door was locked and/or the cockpit was filled with smoke, so no one could enter the cockpit to try to figure out where the plane was, how the pilots were, or how the plane might be successfully landed. (This would be a complicated task, even if one knew the pilots were unconscious and had access to the cockpit, especially if most of the plane's electrical systems were switched off or damaged).

With no one awake to instruct the autopilot to land, the plane kept flying on its last programmed course ... right over Pulau Langkawi and out over the Indian Ocean. The engine-update system kept "pinging" the satellite. Eventually, six or seven hours after the incident, the plane ran out of fuel and crashed.

This theory fits the facts. It makes sense. It explains the manual course change as well as the "pings" that a satellite kept hearing from the plane. It requires no fantastically brilliant pre-planning or execution or motives.


Read more: Malaysia Plane Fire - Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/malaysia-plane-fire-2014-3#ixzz2wLDLDwM5)

[jugofpropwash]

- 1:07 - ACARS last transmission (thru VHF) which apparently includes notation of a WP change having been entered into system since last scheduled report at 12:37
- 1:11 - Boeing would have received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 1:19 - 'Alright, Good Night' at handover (supposedly by co-pilot)
- 1:22 - Transmitter goes off

A question. Could PF have made a course change at 1:07 in such a way that PM would either not have noticed or not have questioned? (For example, saying it was a course correction, or waiting until PM was distracted by making a cabin announcement, etc.)

If so, I could envision the PM finishing his radio duties ("Good night.") and then having the PF send him onto the cabin on some sort of errand (or even just saying that there was a pretty girl back in the 10th row that had been making eyes at him, and he should go talk to her.)

Then PF locks the cockpit door and does whatever he wants...

[D.S.]

INTEL101 (http://www.pprune.org/members/95174-intel101) said

Shortly after takeoff, as Malaysia 370 was flying out over the ocean, just after the co-pilot gave his final "Good night" sign-off to Malaysia air traffic control, smoke began filling the cockpit, perhaps from a tire on the front landing gear that had ignited on takeoff.

The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do: turn the plane toward the closest airport so he could land.

This theory, unfortunately, pretty much falls apart right out the gates.

- it ignores the ACARS message indicating WP was altered prior t 1:07

- Between the two paragraphs events, ACARS would have sent emergency messages indicating major problems on board.

- Then, the nearest safe location to land was likely Vietnam anyway, not a frantic turn back to where you came from. (this is especially true if the cockpit is that bad off already)

- Plus, if the fire is believed to be that bad (bad enough to turn off most/all systems before you start reacting) you probably don't want to fly the plane over a city with a population of 577,000 people (Kota Bharu) and instead want to attempt a sea landing

[bsieker]

D.S.,


- 3:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 4:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 5:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 6:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 7:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite) near 40 Degree line
[...]
- 8:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite) on 40 Degree line
(my bold)

Where does Boeing enter into it? Malaysia Airlines did not have a health monitoring contract with Boeing (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-121.html#post8370088). And even if, these transmissions would have gone via ACARS, which was apparently disabled/inactive/switched off/...

These "attempted messages" as you call them, were keepalive-pings to the INMARSAT network, and have nothing to do with either ACARS, Boeing, or anyone else.

[GarageYears]

What difference does it make....?

Airborne at 0041....last recorded satellite "ping" at 0811. Fuel: 7:30

Well, I don't know where on that arc that ping occurred... the furthest they went along that arc is defined by max speed from the last recorded point on the radar trace, limited only by fuel load.

[DaveReidUK]

If the circles are relatively close together in timeThe circles (assuming that more than one could be plotted, which now seems in doubt) would be 60 minutes apart, because that's how often the satellite pings the aircraft.

The only deduction that could reasonably be made would be if the spacing between two successive rings turned to be equal to the maximum distance that the aircraft could fly in an hour. Then it would follow (as previously suggested) that the track must be along the radius of the rings, but of course that doesn't identify which radial.

If two hourly rings are spaced closer together, then it's hard to see how anything can be deduced in respect of track or groundspeed.

But as it seems that only one ring is known, it's all a bit academic.

[awblain]

Speed of sound,

I accept however that the final two pings being the same distance from the satellite would strongly suggest a stationary aircraft and more coincident arcs than that would suggest the aircraft is on land and not in the process of sinking or drifting and therefore likely to be on the 'northern arc'. Those are the only conditions that I see the prior pings being of any help to the search.

You're right - to fly equidistant from the satellite would require a non-great circle along the red arc. If the ACARS was powered off, the alleged miscreants wouldn't think they needed to worry about that, and would it even enter their heads what Inmarsat logged about data signals for Rolls Royce, and where their satellites were located?

If there are prior distance measurements, then they will help. They'll give a time to some unknown point on the arc, and thus constrain possible paths between points on the different arcs.

If the Inmarsat signal has a frequency measured in fine channels, which it probably doesn't, and better a change in frequency from signal to signal, since the properties of the transmitter aren't known, that might even add a point measurement of line-of-sight speed which would help improve the possible paths it could have taken.

[pax2908]

What useful data would have been exchanged, had Boeing decided to activate their SAT service before the event was over?

[D.S.]

bsieker (http://www.pprune.org/members/183953-bsieker)

Where does Boeing enter into it? Malaysia Airlines did not have a health monitoring contract with Boeing (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-121.html#post8370088). And even if, these transmissions would have gone via ACARS, which was apparently disabled/inactive/switched off/...

These "attempted messages" as you call them, were keepalive-pings to the INMARSAT network, and have nothing to do with either ACARS, Boeing, or anyone else.the pings are only known (supposedly) because of Boeing's Airline Health Management system, and were not connected because of MAH not having that service plan. That is where the Boeing name came in

That said, you are correct in it being stated a bit confusing, and I will update the timeline. Thanks!

Edit to say the previous posts edit is as follows
INMARSAT ping received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite)
That make more sense?

[rampstriker]

What useful data would have been exchanged, had Boeing decided to activate their SAT service before the event was over?


Likely nothing, since ACARS had been disabled.

[awblain]

I don't think the Maldives account and the Inmarsat tracks can be consistent. If Inmarsat hold to their technical knowledge about their system, then the Maldives witness account has to be spurious.

[SLFplatine]

Quote:
Then PF locks the cockpit door and does whatever he wants...

Okay, but why enter the wp in the first place before shutting down ACARS which will report a wp change?