Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Squawk_ident]

Melbourne FIR follows the E075 Meridian from the S06 Parallel untill the South Pole.
On the other side of the E075 and south of the 45S Parallel is Johannesburg FIR and Mauritius FIR on the north of it.
I hope that this debris will be positively identified as part of the MAS370 especially for the families. Astroawani Malaysian TV is covering live this finding. The next press conference should be interesting to watch. Normally at 0930Z.

Live TV | Astro Awani (http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live)

[awblain]

From the released pair of pictures alone, the objects just look like whitecaps.

The reports from the Australian PM are that the objects looked "awash", which means there must be multiple sightings lurking unreleased showing a persistent object covered differently by water.

The released pictures were taken four days ago, so I'm sure the objects have been verified to be still there on several more images since, which is good news: and if the objects had been afloat for several days before being seen on 16th, and seen again since, then they're probably still on the surface now for when a ship arrives at the scene. 24m is far too big for a container, and probably an inverted yacht.

From the weather and measured drift in the images since 16th, the location of any sunk wreckage shouldn't be too uncertain. However, the water's substantially deeper here than where AF447 was found though, giving a submarine a harder time to find data recorder signals. For AF447 it did still take a long time to locate the wreckage on the seabed, despite finding surface debris more quickly in shallower water. I guess that experience will help this time.

[FE Hoppy]

For those thinking about the N/S FMC input error. Think also that the track solution based on handshake range is valid both north and south. With no other data the solutions in both directions are equally valid and at yesterdays press brief it was said that both routes are being investigated.


N/S FMC error is not very likely for a number of reasons.

[training wheels]

N/S FMC error is not very likely for a number of reasons.

Don't stop there. Please tell us why.

[Space Jet]

Daily press conference in 15 minutes
Live TV | Astro Awani (http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live)

[VH-XXX]

Someone asked if containers float; yes they absolutely do and are a major boating risk.

[Capn Bloggs]

N/S FMC error is not very likely for a number of reasons.

Don't stop there. Please tell us why.
Oh come on, Training Wheels! Do you really think someone smart enough to actually create a user waypoint in the FMS would then sit there for hours as the aircraft headed in the wrong direction by 135-odd degrees because they messed up N and S?

[Flingwing47]

actually we do have air to air refueling available down under :) - regularly used

[OleOle]

Posted here previously

http://i57.tinypic.com/2my2cds.jpg

from

Buoy 14908 (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=14908)


It seems the area is north of the circumpolar current. AF447 came down in the Equatorial Counter Current. There, the surface current pattern are much more random and thus with AF447 it was harder to back track them. I'm optimistic drift analysis in this part of the ocean will be more accurate.

[VinRouge]

The images came from a commercial sat. I suspect there are higher rse images available if a nation were to put in a request.

Not to mention synthetic apature stuff available on aircraft these days too.

[mseyfang]

For those thinking about the N/S FMC input error. Think also that the track solution based on handshake range is valid both north and south. With no other data the solutions in both directions are equally valid and at yesterdays press brief it was said that both routes are being investigated.


N/S FMC error is not very likely for a number of reasons.


Not likely? You're right there.

But mistakes get made all the time. I'm sure all of us have had a :ugh::ugh:moment at least once in our lives. If you read accident reports, there are plenty of instances where you're left scratching your head.

It's not a hypothesis that can be discarded out of hand. Could also be a crew under duress that did it deliberately to avoid the aircraft being used for nefarious purposes. Truth is, none of us know yet -- it's all hypotheses, theories and speculation now.

[2dPilot]

Anybody have an informed opinion on how long it might take an fbi expert to recover deleted files off a computer?

Depends if they've been overwritten with new data. When you delete a file most operating systems just mark that bit of storage available for re-use, and mark the filename as deleted, which really means 'dont show this file in listings'. The actual data is still there untouched.
If the file has not been overwritten, there are programs that will scan a disk in minutes and extract the missing files.
If the data has been overwritten, there are techniques for sensing the incredibly tiny magnetic changes left from a few previous data writes.

The answer is minutes to days, if at all in multiple overwrites.

[Ancient Mariner]

The Norwegian vessel St. Petersburg, owned by Hoegh will apparantly reach the area where the debris has been found "within hours".

[training wheels]

Oh come on, Training Wheels! Do you really think someone smart enough to actually create a user waypoint in the FMS would then sit there for hours as the aircraft headed in the wrong direction by 135-odd degrees because they messed up N and S?

That's assuming everything was ops normal and they were monitoring the cruise. For all we know, the incorrect entry could have been made in a near hypoxic state due to depressurization, both crew eventually becoming completely incapacitated and the aircraft continued on flying until fuel exhaustion.

[GlueBall]

Could it be that someone may have wanted to enter in to the FMC the coordinates for Urumqi Airport

You wouldn't be inserting coordinates for Urumqi, because it's a defined waypoint and defined airport BY NAME in the FMS database. :ooh:

[Passagiata]

The scans are dated four days ago - hopefully the objects are still floating ...

[slats11]

If the US aircraft has found something, wonder when we will hear.

I wound expect quick news if not from MH 370. A false sighting is not that significant.

If it was MH 370, the significance of that might delay release of news until everyone was primed.

[training wheels]

You wouldn't be inserting coordinates for Urumqi, because it's a defined waypoint and defined airport BY NAME in the FMS database. :ooh:

Yes, agree and point taken.

[mmurray]

This solar map (http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html) gives an idea of how much more sunlight the searchers have.

[Ngineer]

I do not find it remotely credible that two pilots would hijack their aircraft in this way.
It is thus likely that one was locked out.


Doesn't explain ACARS or ATC comms lost.

They soon will be running out of light in WA. Not sure if they will be able to identify the objects by sunset.

[gchriste]

Latest: AMSA News ‏@AMSA_News 4m
RAAF P3 crew unable to locate debris. Cloud & rain limited visbility. Further aircraft to continue search for #MH370

[LiveryMan]

If '24 metres' is measured from the rear, does this then bring the Satcom Antennae Fuselage AD into play?

Most unlikely as this particular 777 apparently did not have the antennae the AD addresses.

[WingNut60]

Australia's entire submarine fleet is headquartered at Garden Island (suburban Perth).
I presume that there is some SAR capability operating out of there.
Probably about four or five days away from current target site - presuming something is available to be mobilised.
Double that distance if you look at Diego Garcia and US or British assets.


For this aircraft to have flown to the current target area it would have travelled about 7,000 km.
Is that possible? Even with a generous allowance for sea drift, is that possible?

[Frequent Traveller]

Anybody have an informed opinion on how long it might take an fbi expert to recover deleted files off a computer?

Answer : no 'informed opinion' to your question may be offered until the wrecked 772 body is located at the bottom of the Indian Ocean (depth : - 2000 m ? - 4000 m ? deeper ?). The crash has (if ?) happened - say - before 10h00 LT 08Mar, ie more than 300h ago, which @ surface currents of - say - 3 kts ? - resp. 7 kts ? means somewhere 900 nm ? - resp. 2,100 nm ? away in the reverse current direction ? from where these debris are located today ... many uncertainties still, I'm afraid ...

[Hempy]

If the object spotted is indeed "24m" it's simply too big to be ANY sort of shipping container..

[NiclasB]

Does anyone have figures of the approximate time on station the Aussie P3C would have? The wikipedia figures would suggest around 8 hours (16 hours endurance minus 2500nmi return trip @328KTAS). That does sound like a useful time (ignoring the fact that the general search area has roughly the size of Sweden/France/California).

If any wreckage is found floating, would it be possible to drop bouys to listen for the CVR/FDR pings (in the right frequency band)?

[mary meagher]

No doubt the experience accumulated during the search for AF447 will help. The difficulty in mid-Atlantic, between Brazil and West Africa was the underwater terraine, the Ridge being bisected by the Romanche trench, the third deepest in the Atlantic Ocean, and with a profile resembling the Himalayas.

The underwater terraine of the Indian Ocean may be less challenging. However, the CVR won't tell us very much, being overwritten after 2 hours....
and it is very unlikely that technical difficulties were involved in bringing down the aircraft.

[awblain]

bono,

Right. A container comes off the ship at less than 32.5 tons, and as long as the nature of the contents only allow it take on about 38 tons of water, it'll remain a menace to shipping. If it takes on more, then it goes to the bottom.

If the size of 24m is correct, then it's too big to be a container.

I assume that several containers were found during the search for objects.

[Ranger One]

No-one is mentioning the elephant in the room here; now granted the image isn't the best, but the shape of the object, that we can see in the image released, is not that far short of being approximately square, to my way of looking at it.

If - IF - the 24m dimension is approximately correct, I would eyeball the rough dimensions of object as 24m x 20m.

Call it 80' x 60'.

I'm struggling to picture what bit of a 772, when reduced to wreckage, could be that size or anything close to it. It's the wrong shape and size for a bit of wing or fuselage or tail.

I wouldn't get over-excited by this until we know a lot more.

[Speed of Sound]

If any wreckage is found floating, would it be possible to drop bouys to listen for the CVR/FDR pings (in the right frequency band)?

It would be possible, but that would be a bit pointless given that the 'wreckage' is probably over 100 miles away from the crash site and even if it were right above it, it's unlikely a pinger would be heard from the surface in water of that depth.

[Token Bird]

@ xcitation

Looks like the Malaysians aren't the only ones with issues releasing data!

Nothing to hide, just thought it wouldn't be wise. I've never been convinced by the assertions that it went west, let alone that it followed that waypoint pattern. But when someone brought it up again I just plotted it out of curiosity.

Now it seems the investigation has moved on and the Australians are searching in what seems to be a likely area for the aircraft to have ended up. And now potential debris has been spotted, I think it's now just a waiting game.

[KLN94]

The sea floor in the area where the debris was discovered is around 3000 metres and flat and featureless.

3000 metres is well within range of ROV's.

Here is a marine chart image of the seabed from a screenshot.

http://pprune1234.smugmug.com/Pprune/i-xfM5nzD/0/X3/Approx%20position%20of%20M370%20wreckage-X3.jpg

Thanks to PJ2 for taking the time to explain to me how to post it.

[OleOle]

I understand each wing tank of the 772 can hold 35000 liters, if they didn't rupture that's a potential for 35t of buoyancy.

[mseyfang]

From the US, extensive coverage this morning on the voice of conventional wisdom "Morning Joe" (cable, MSNBC). Preliminary reporting indicating that nothing was positively identified on the first pass due to weather. Live report from OZ as I write this.

[AviatorDave]

Do MH normally service ZWWW? If not, it may not be in the FMC navigation Database. Different airlines use different databases. If ZWWW was not in the database then it would have to be entered by LAT/LONG with an elevation 50' above the field.

All the Best

That is true. It might hence be interesting to know how much of a custom tailored agreement MAS have with their database supplier.

Still, going south for hours if planning to go north should alert a person that is apparently able to operate a 777's FMC.

[Livesinafield]

can anyone, confirm that data collected from the pilots simulator indicated he had made several approaches to Diego Garcia?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/465677/Information-deleted-from-flight-simulator-of-missing-Malaysia-Airlines-pilot

[mickjoebill]

News interview with flight crew on Channel 7
Summary
Location is approx 1500 NM Sw of Perth.
Flying at 100ft asl
They had all sensors operating
Channel 7 have a crew onboard an orion that will return at midnight.

[mach411]

The possible debris location is remarkably close to a potential reflected route after the IGARI waypoint:

http://i.imgur.com/QqtnhME.png

[500N]

Are you talking the Aussie AMSA Press conference or some other TV show ?


If Aussie, I don't think he said today, I think he inferred they had had then a while - few days - while they were analysing them.

[Speed of Sound]

For this aircraft to have flown to the current target area it would have travelled about 7,000 km.
Is that possible? Even with a generous allowance for sea drift, is that possible?

The return journey from KUL-PEK is around 4,600 miles so if MH370 was tankering fuel, with reserves, it could easily have travelled 7000 km.

[mickjoebill]

TV news Weather report
Location in middle of developing cold front.
Vis 1km in areas of rain
Low cloud 500 ft
Rough seas, big swells

[The Livster]

Think he corrected himself," received the information today but was unsure of date the pictures were taken "

[OleOle]

I wouldn't expect surface current to be more than 0.5 - 1 knots in that region, amounting to lets say 150 - 240 nm in 12 days. If drift wasn't in a straight line it's even less.

Those drift buoys are exposed to the wind as well, their behavior shouldn't differ much from debris.

[Token Bird]

can anyone, confirm that data collected from the pilots simulator indicated he had made several approaches to Diego Garcia?

Where in that article does it say that? What it actually says is (my italics):

Some of the information already recovered from the simulator suggests the pilot may have practised landing at a remote US military base on Diego Garcia

[Speed of Sound]

So, were they tankering fuel?
Surely this point has been determined by now

The Malaysian authorities confirmed that there was nothing unusual about the fuel uptake for this flight and the perceived wisdom when this was discussed a few days ago, was that MAS would pay less than 30% for fuel at KUL than they would at PEK therefore it would make no sense to buy fuel in China.

[Space Jet]

Channel 9 will have a "Special Report" from a reporter who was on board one of the Australian search aircraft after the footy show (in twenty minutes).

This is Melbourne so not sure if other states will have it but I think they would.

[Evanelpus]

can anyone, confirm that data collected from the pilots simulator indicated he had made several approaches to Diego Garcia?

So what? I've done approaches with a 737-800 onto a carrier in the pacific, doesn't mean I'm actually going to do it.:ugh:

[Token Bird]

Surely its obvious looking at the data, he either flew there or he didnt

There was something a few days ago about how he had certain airports in his database, including Diego Garcia. I think it's likely this article has sprung from that. Airport is in database = may have flown there, along with all the other hundreds/thousands of airports that were probably in his database :rolleyes:

[PPMAGETO]

"Malaysia Airlines plans to fly relatives of the passengers and crew to Perth if the objects are confirmed to be from MH370, the company's chief executive Ahmad Jauhar Yahya has said."

[V-Jet]

I know its a Lo res (highly magnified) image, but it looks to me a lot more like 2 x 40' containers on their side than any part I could recognise as Boeing.

Aircraft (especially when badly bent) dont look so square. The tail of AF447 springs to mind.

No ELT heard from the P3? Or have I missed a good explanation?

Having written this I have no doubt there will be a PC announcing confirmation of fuselage pieces!

[harrryw]

The Orions seem to have only two hours on target. I know that is a lot with the gear they have but (and I know it is probably a silly question.) I thought they could be aerial refueled for extended range. I know extra crew would be needed especially the pilots though the operators could probably get some rest on the transit flight. It seems that an extra two or three hours on station would be of benefit as time is of the essence in any search although sadly in those conditionions I doubt there are any survivors.

[pax britanica]

Why would an experienced T7 pilot need to practice approaches to DG. Even allowing for the fact that FS X is very unlikely to have an accurate rendering of the place it is dead flat, no obstructions, no complex approach no nothing . If he could land a T7 as his day job then he could land at DG without ever having to practice.

I think the only significance DG could have for this sad story is that it is one place where there will be an alert and active air defence radar coverage however it is actually provided and we would know if MH370 went anywhere within 500 miles of the place.

[Space Jet]

Latest Press Release From Malaysia
They like the Southern Corridor

Thursday, March 20, 05:30 PM MYT +0800*Malaysia Airlines MH370 Flight Incident - MH370 Press Briefing by Hishammuddin Hussein, Minister of Defence and Acting Minister of Transport


1.*** Australian satellite images

At 10:00 this morning, the Prime Minister received a call from the Prime Minister of Australia, informing him that ‘two possible objects related to the search’ for MH370 had been identified in the Southern Indian Ocean. The Australian authorities in Kuala Lumpur have also briefed me on the situation, and the Australian Foreign Minister has spoken to the Foreign Minister of Malaysia.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) continues co-ordinating the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines aircraft within Australia’s search and rescue area, with assistance from the Australian Defence Force, the New Zealand Air Force, and the US Navy.

AMSA’s Rescue Co-ordination Centre (RCC) Australia has received satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search for MH370.

RCC Australia received an expert assessment of commercial satellite imagery today. The images were captured by satellite. They may not be related to the aircraft.

The assessment of these images was provided by the Australian Geospatial Intelligence Organisation as a possible indication of debris southwest of Perth.

As a result of this information, four aircraft have been re-orientated to an area 2,500 kilometres southwest of Perth.

A Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion aircraft arrived in the area at about 10:50AM.

Another 3 aircraft have been tasked by RCC Australia to the area, including a second RAAF Orion, a Royal New Zealand Air Force Orion, and a US Navy P-8 Poseidon.

The Poseidon was expected to arrive early this afternoon. The second RAAF Orion was expected to depart RAAF Base Pearce, Perth, mid-afternoon. The New Zealand Orion was due to depart this afternoon.

An RAAF C-130 Hercules aircraft has been tasked by RCC Australia to drop datum marker buoys to assist in drift modelling. They will provide an on-going reference point if the task of relocating the objects becomes protracted.

A merchant ship that responded to a shipping broadcast issued by RCC Australia on Monday was also expected to arrive in the area this afternoon.*

The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Success is en route to the area but is some days away. The ship is well equipped to recover any objects located and proven to be from MH370.

Every effort is being made to locate the objects seen in the satellite imagery. It must be stressed that these sightings, while credible, are still to be confirmed.

2.*** Assets deployed

The search for MH370 is a multinational effort. I will now give you an update on the assets which have been deployed.

During the course of this operation, the Chief of the Defence Force has spoken to his counterparts from countries including:

•******* Australia

•******* China

•******* India

•******* Indonesia

•******* Japan

•******* Maldives

•******* Nepal

•******* New Zealand

•******* Singapore

•******* Thailand

•******* Vietnam

•******* The UK

•******* And the USA.

All were very supportive, and all offered their assistance. As the focus of the search has moved from the South China Sea and Straits of Malacca to the northern and southern corridors, our international partners have continued to provide whatever support they can.

A number of assets have been deployed at different phases of the search and rescue operation.

Currently, there are 18 ships, 29 aircraft and 6 ship-borne helicopters deployed along the northern and southern corridors, as follows:

Aircraft

In the northern corridor, there are 4 aircraft:

•******* 2 from Malaysia

•******* 1 from Japan

•******* And 1 from the US.

In the southern corridor, there are 25 aircraft:

•******* 2 from Malaysia

•******* 5 from Australia

•******* 3 from China

•******* 4 from Indonesia

•******* 2 from India

•******* 4 from Japan

•******* 1 from New Zealand

•******* 2 from South Korea

•******* 1 from the UAE

•******* And 1 from the USA.

Ships

All 18 ships are in the southern corridor:

•******* 6 from Malaysia

•******* 1 from Australia

•******* 5 from China

•******* And 6 from Indonesia.

This deployment includes 6 helicopters:

•******* 3 from Malaysia, and 3 from China.*

Until we are certain that we have located MH370, search and rescue operations will continue in both corridors. I can confirm that Malaysia is sending 2 aircraft to Kazakhstan, and the UK is planning to send 1 ship to the southern corridor.

In addition to the assets I just listed above, a number of countries in the northern corridor are carrying out search and rescue operations within their own territory:

•******* China is using every means possible, including 21 satellites, to search the area within its borders, and is ready to send more ships and aircraft wherever they are needed.

•******* In Cambodia, 4 helicopters are conducting search operations within Cambodian territory.

•******* The Laos Air Force is carrying out search operations within Laos.

•******* Singapore are using their International Information Fusion Centre, where a Malaysian representative is stationed, to notify mariners and help with the search.

•******* The Thai military are conducting search operations in the northern part of Thailand with all available aircraft.

•******* And Vietnam are conducting search operations within their territory using an unspecified number of aircraft.

Together this represents a significant international force deployment. I am thankful for the co-operation of our partners as we continue to focus on finding MH370.

3.*** Family care

The high-level team I announced yesterday is leaving for Beijing this evening.

I would also like to confirm that representatives from the Malaysian government spoke to the families who were present here yesterday.

In addition, the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy to China, and the Chinese Ambassador to Malaysia, will lead a briefing today for the Chinese families who are here in Kuala Lumpur.

Also in attendance will be the Department of Civil Aviation, the Armed Forces, the Royal Malaysia Police, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and MAS. A similar briefing will also be held for the other families.

4.*** Concluding remarks

For families around the world, the one piece of information they want most is the information we just don’t have: the location of MH370.

Our primary focus has always been to find the aircraft. And with every passing day, our efforts have intensified.

Yesterday I said that we wanted to reduce the area of the search. We now have a credible lead. There remains much work to be done to deploy the assets. This work will continue overnight.

[ChicoG]

10:02pm: Norwegian car carrier Hoegh St Petersburg has reached the search area, the ship owner said on Thursday.
The car carrier was on its way from Madagascar to Melbourne when it got a request from Australian authorities to assist in investigating the objects.


Read more: Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Debris found in search for MH370, says Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott (http://www.smh.com.au/national/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-debris-found-in-search-for-mh370-says-australian-prime-minister-tony-abbott-20140320-354xz.html#ixzz2wVA20uuh)

[layman]

@harryw

P3 not fitted with air-to-air refuelling capability

P8 does

[slats11]

We have not heard many details about Chinese search. It is interesting that all Chinese air and naval assets are apparently south.

I guess there are reasons they would prefer it went south. But you have to wonder what information they got from all their satellites.

[mrbigbird]

FBI Joins Malaysia Jet Probe as Simulator Data Sought
By Angus Whitley, Manirajan Ramasamy and David Fickling
March 19, 2014 11:00 PM EDT
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The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation joined Malaysia’s inquiry into the missing jet as authorities sought to retrieve deleted data on a computer flight simulator belonging to the plane’s pilot.
The FBI’s involvement, disclosed yesterday by the White House, widens the U.S. role in probing Flight 370’s disappearance. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and Federal Aviation Administration are already working with Malaysian authorities, as is the U.S. military.
“There’s been close cooperation with the Malaysian government,” President Barack Obama said in an interview with a Dallas television station. He said the investigation is a “top priority.”
The search area for the Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200ER narrowed in the southern Indian Ocean after an analysis of the plane’s probable fuel reserves. Aircraft from Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. patrolled a zone the size of Italy while the inquiry into the simulator opened a new front in the mystery that began March 8 when Flight 370 vanished with 239 people on board.
Malaysia gave India new coordinates to look for the plane, following which the country will deploy its P-8I long-range aircraft, D.K. Sharma, a spokesman for the Indian Navy, said by phone today. India will search the ocean in a location south of Jakarta, Sharma said.
Simulator Examined
Malaysia has brought in local and international experts to examine the simulator, Hishammuddin said. Some data had been deleted and “forensic work” to retrieve it was under way, he said. The data log was cleared on Feb. 3, according to Khalid Abu Bakar, the country’s police chief.
The homes of pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid were searched on March 15 after Prime Minister Najib Razak said the Malaysian Airline System Bhd. (MAS) plane was intentionally diverted. It lost contact and disappeared from radar screens less than an hour after it left Kuala Lumpur bound for Beijing. Initial inquiries indicated the co-pilot was last heard by air traffic controllers.
“The passengers, the pilots and the crew remain innocent until proven otherwise,” Malaysian Acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said. “For the sake of their families, I ask that we refrain from any unnecessary speculation that might make an already difficult time even harder.”
White House Press Secretary Jay Carney declined to comment on the status of the investigation into Flight 370 while confirming that the FBI was involved.
Patrols Resuming
“We are finding that the level of cooperation with the Malaysian government is solid,” Carney told reporters. “But I have no update on the course of the investigation. It remains the case that, you know, we are not in the position yet to draw conclusions about what happened.”
Air patrols by the U.S., New Zealand and Australia are resuming today in the southern Indian Ocean, according to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.
An assessment by the NTSB allowed the search to be focused on an area about the half the size of the zone planned earlier, according to John Young, the agency’s general manager of emergency response. The search zone is about 305,000 square kilometers (118,000 square miles).
Fuel Load
The search for the Malaysian jet, which lost contact with air traffic control less than an hour after leaving Kuala Lumpur at 12:41 a.m. on March 8 en route to Beijing, is the longest in modern passenger-airline history. The previous record was the 10-day search for a Boeing Co. 737-400 operated by Indonesia’s PT Adam Skyconnection Airlines, which went missing off the coast of that country’s Sulawesi island Jan. 1, 2007.
The Boeing 777 was carrying 49.1 metric tons (54.1 tons) of fuel when it departed Kuala Lumpur, for a total takeoff weight of 223.5 tons, according to Subang Jaya-based Malaysian Air.
Satellite signals emitted periodically from Flight 370 even after other communications were shut down showed the jet operated for almost seven hours after last making contact. That may have taken the plane more than 3,000 miles from its last known location to the limits to the fuel on board, if it remained airborne the whole time.
U.S. investigators are reviewing satellite pings from routine flights in an attempt to determine the accuracy of the estimates of where the jet flew, said a person familiar with the probe who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
Accuracy Estimates
A jet carrying global-positioning equipment would know its exact position, and that could be compared with estimates derived from its pings to the Inmarsat Plc satellite, the person said.
The distance from the London-based company’s satellite over the Indian Ocean to Flight 370 must have been calculated using the time it took for radio beams to travel back and forth, Tom Stansell, a consultant who helped develop the GPS system starting in 1960, said in an interview.
The arcs released by the Malaysian government showing where the plane was at 8:11 a.m. on March 8 are probably accurate to within about 100 miles, Tim Farrar, president of Telecom, Media & Finance Associates of Menlo Park, California, said in an interview. The company does satellite and telecommunications consulting.
Much of the area Australia is scouring is within the Roaring Forties, a region between the 40th and 50th degrees of latitude south known for strong winds and wave conditions, according to charts provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority. That may diminish the chances of debris still being afloat so long after the jet vanished.
To contact the reporters on this story: Angus Whitley in Sydney at [email protected]; Manirajan Ramasamy in Kuala Lumpur at [email protected]; David Fickling in Sydney at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Anand Krishnamoorthy at [email protected] Ed Dufner, Bernard Kohn

[parabellum]

The FMC is very useful for an established route, SID or approach but don't get mesmerised by what may or may not have been entered into the FMC, in this case, quite possible that from 01.19 the rest of the flight was conducted in FLCH and HDG Select.

[bud leon]

So many people seem to think that the participation of players like China, Malaysia, US, Indonesia etc is dominated by geopolitics, deception, and even commercial advantage. There is no doubt that security sensitivities will influence actions and will certainly influence public information sharing. There is no doubt that cooperative approaches are challenged by a whole range of sovereign and institutional barriers. But all of the people involved are people; people with families, friends, relatives and emotions and I would expect that most players just want to help people suffering.

Think about it. It's difficult enough to agree on what you are going to have for dinner each night. Instead of this somewhat paranoid and dysfunctional view, which is not entirely unwarranted, I happen to think we are seeing an effort of global cooperation that we should celebrate rather than pick holes in. Because the holes are going to be there despite best efforts.

[Speed of Sound]

The arcs released by the Malaysian government showing where the plane was at 8:11 a.m. on March 8 are probably accurate to within about 100 miles, Tim Farrar, president of Telecom, Media & Finance Associates of Menlo Park, California, said in an interview.

Interesting!

Until now, most people with a knowledge of Inmarsat operation, latency and other errors have said that the 'ping distance' is accurate to +/- 5 km. If this new estimate of +/- 100miles is true, then even the very limited conclusions that can be drawn from analysing the 5 previous ping arcs would become virtually useless as the arcs become even more 'blurred'.

[Hydrogen Alpha]

My guess is that two Australian P3s and a C130, a USN P8, a NZ P3, and an Australian warship are not being launched on the basis of photographic evidence as poor as that shown to the media by the Australians.


It must be possible that the US National Reconnaissance Office KH11 satellite constellation has produced high quality images which we have (obviously) not seen, or which have been degraded.

[Lost in Saigon]

I understand each wing tank of the 772 can hold 35000 liters, if they didn't rupture that's a potential for 35t of buoyancy.

Even if intact, the wing tanks have vents, and I would expect them to be filled with water after this length of time.

[SLFplatine]

Quote [parabellum]:
"The FMC is very useful for an established route, SID or approach but don't get mesmerised by what may or may not have been entered into the FMC, in this case, quite possible that from 01.19 the rest of the flight was conducted in FLCH and HDG Select."

While the maneuvers after IGARI are probably indicative of the plane being under control and being flown in an evasive manner, the sudden altitude changescould indicate the plane was not fully under control (?). If the plane ended in the far southern reaches of the Indian Ocean could that indicate an attempted return to KL by a pilot in an incapacitated state who then passed out after setting HDG? Just asking.

[awblain]

H alpha,

You're right that the single-epoch released image just looks like a wave. The Australian government person interviewed said that the two objects appeared to be "awash", which implies multiple views to see this happening. Then again, a stack of containers, or an upturned yacht would be "awash" too.

I think it's reasonable to assume that there is much more imaging available; however, the resolution of the images released is of order of a meter, at least for sunlight reflecting off the surface, so it's probably adequate for the purpose. The tone of the Australians today has certainly been very positive. It seems hard to imagine they'd have made a statement/released the four-day-old image if they weren't quietly confident of finding wreckage.

[oldoberon]

Interesting!

Until now, most people with a knowledge of Inmarsat operation, latency and other errors have said that the 'ping distance' is accurate to +/- 5 km. If this new estimate of +/- 100miles is true, then even the very limited conclusions that can be drawn from analysing the 5 previous ping arcs would become virtually useless as the arcs become even more 'blurred'.

But any indication is better than 1/3 of the world surface, I have always assumed (yep dangerous) the shallower the angle the greater the spread of the beam, rather like a torch shining on the ground

[harrryw]

Once Queensland had a premier famous for "Feeding the chooks." His press conferences always gave provable facts..he kept a little back for his favorites and gave enough that everyone could write a good story without asking awkward questions.
It seems Australia has taken this art to an even higher degree. I think at least now the facts we get will be straight even though they may not be the whole story.

[structor]

Quote:
Originally Posted by OleOle http://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-post8389892.html#post8389892)
I understand each wing tank of the 772 can hold 35000 liters, if they didn't rupture that's a potential for 35t of buoyancy.

Even if intact, the wing tanks have vents, and I would expect them to be filled with water after this length of time.

NB: density difference means 35000 litres of fuel at SG= 0.85 would have only ~ 5 tonnes of buoyancy

[Bobman84]

There are a few guys flying out tomorrow morning from Melbourne to assist in the search (AMSA).

[rgbrock1]

The Norwegian car carrier Hoegh St. Petersburg has reached the area in the southern Indian Ocean off Australia where two floating objects, suspected to be debris from the missing Malaysian jetliner, were spotted, the ship owner’s said on Thursday. The cargo ship is currently 30 NM from the location of the objects.

[awblain]

150kms isn't too shabby, given the level of knowledge otherwise.

Plus, that gives the width of a very long arc. If things drift by maybe several 10s of miles per day, that makes even a point from ten days ago a swath that wide by now.

[dillboy]

Are we to assume that the distress radiobeacon failed in this case, or that some of the data that the search and rescue teams have been using includes that received by this device?

I understand that these devices can react to either water immersion or impact forces?

Would be grateful for an answer from someone with knowledge.

[Token Bird]

A flight crew combing the southern Indian Ocean for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 said they are getting radar hits of “significant size,” indicating something lying below the water’s surface, ABC News America also reports.

Interesting paragraph above was found at: Possible wreckage spotted in search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, RAAF plane on its way to identify objects | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/world/possible-wreckage-spotted-in-search-for-missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-raaf-plane-on-its-way-to-identify-objects/story-fndir2ev-1226859680610)

[nitpicker330]

The P8 did NOT find anything on Radar.

MH370 suspected wreckage images released | Plane Talking (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/03/20/mh370-suspected-wreckage-images-released/)

[oldoberon]

say original 180mls wide ie 90mls either side of a centre line, the drifting is hopefully only in one direction so you lose the other 90mlies.

Right now the width of search area would be about the same as day 1 but increasing as every day goes by,

If it landed on the centre line you get 10x20 =200, compared to original 180, if it landed on eastern edge you get 90+200 = 290

however if it landed on west edge 180 of the 200 is the original area

[captains_log]

Although ive been tracking this thread very regularly! I may of missed this question answered.
What about these image findings via sat, they are 4 days old, im sure daily images from this area have been rescanned? Which would indicate with current drift approximations more debris or potentially finding the same? But nothing more recent has been published anyway.

Either that or now due to currents/weather nothing is left afloat which means it was an awful amount of effort to find nothing.

[Jetset 88]

Bearing in mind how long it took to find and later recover the Air France AF447 Flt Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder, I have often wondered why these, valuable to the search and subsequent enquiry, items are not given some form of barostatic release. If so designed they could then automatically deploy to release themselves to the surface if the lost aircraft were to descend below a certain depth of water. As merely a retired global and ETOPS flier, I am in no way qualified to know anything about such design matters, yet is it not time that the boffins put their thinking caps on to produce such an aid to their recovery?

The parameters for 'release to the surface' could be clearly defined so as not to activate such a device unless extreme water pressure were experienced by the sensing device. The trigger for release could then be by self-contained electrical, barostatic or even chemical means.
Realising that cost versus the number of times such inventions are needed form a large part of the design equation, it brings to mind the saying that, "Necessity is the mother of invention."
Nevertheless, regardless of the cost of design and fitting such a device to long-flight, over-water aircraft, at least the families and relatives of those lost would have greater hope of some form of final closure for their lost ones.

[slats11]

Well, I think their naval assets might find the northern search area difficult to navigate

True enough. Perhaps didn't make myself clear. I was just surprised they had that many ships down south that quickly (although we don't now how far along the southern corridor they are). Presumably they have been busy doing their own analysis of the data. And maybe these 4 days old images have been shared

Still a bit surprised the Chinese appear to have got caught out regarding the "debris" they spotted early on.

[Flightmech]

I have often wondered why these, valuable to the search and subsequent enquiry, items are not given some form of barostatic release. If so designed they could then automatically deploy to release themselves to the surface if the lost aircraft were to descend below a certain depth of water.

Probably because if they were still in an intact piece of the aft fuselage they would be required to unscrew themselves from their mounts, open the cargo door and swim to the surface?

[buttrick]

Mm, Funny how the Indonesians don't join in as it is almost certain that 370 flew straight over the top of Jakarta, without iff!!!

More face-saving perchance?

[Sawbones62]

50 Plus:

This technology already exists...search this thread or Google for Crash Position Indicator.

It's not required for airliners under current regulations, but is used in the military and offshore exploration industry.

Just needs money, will and regulations.:}

[nitpicker330]

Indonesia ARE involved sending assets to help search.

AMSA search finished for today

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/20032014MediaReleaseUpdate7MH370FINAL.pdf

[philipat]

Mm, Funny how the Indonesians don't join in as it is almost certain that 370 flew straight over the top of Jakarta, without iff!!!

More face-saving perchance?
No way in Hell. Jakarta would be nowhere near the flight path. Aceh is an incredibly sensitive area for Indonesia and there is no way that anything flew over or around Indonesian airspace in North Sumatera without being spotted. The Military is the ONLY Organisation in Indonesia which works efficiently. And this would be a Military operation. Trust me.

This aircraft was deliberately flown, by human intervention, around sensitive air space and controls using carefully selected waypoints by someone(s) who knew what they were doing. Why we don't know. And I suspect that is what was intended. IMHO.

[slats11]

Just saw this conformation from Malaysia that there are already images from other satellites.

Possible wreckage spotted in search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, RAAF plane on its way to identify objects | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/world/possible-wreckage-spotted-in-search-for-missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-raaf-plane-on-its-way-to-identify-objects/story-fndir2ev-1226859680610)

DEBRIS CORROBARATED BY MORE THAN ONE SATELLITE: MALAYSIA
Malaysia’s Defence and acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein says the satellite images of what appears to be debris is corroborated by more than one satellite.
He said this is why the latest sightings off Perth are more credible than previous sightings of debris.
Mr Hussein said the information from Australia was “corroborated to a certain extent from other satellites”.

Presumably (hopefully) better resolution than the images taken on the 16th but released today. If they have another position from another satellite, it is more likely they the air search will be successful.

[SLFplatine]

Quote: Still a bit surprised the Chinese appear to have got caught out regarding the "debris" they spotted early on.

Believe that was released by a civilian agency -Amateur Chinese sleuthing?

[Livesinafield]

i suspect if it was confirmed as the wreckage, it would have been "released" by the Chinese state...


Amuses me how after it was a "red hering" the Chinese then say ahh yes it wasn't released by the state

[TxAggie94]

Quote:
I have often wondered why these, valuable to the search and subsequent enquiry, items are not given some form of barostatic release. If so designed they could then automatically deploy to release themselves to the surface if the lost aircraft were to descend below a certain depth of water.
Probably because if they were still in an intact piece of the aft fuselage they would be required to unscrew themselves from their mounts, open the cargo door and swim to the surface?

Probably because if they were still in an intact piece of the aft fuselage they would be required to unscrew themselves from their mounts, open the cargo door and swim to the surface?


Agreed. And every bit of complexity you design in to a system increases the testing and certification effort and also increases the ongoing maintenance effort. All of this then increases the failure rate. This is true of both complex electronic solutions as well as complex mechanical solutions. Don't forget that after the box mechanically unmounts itself from the structure, it has to disconnect the harnesses that provide it power and data.

Is it technically possible? I'm sure it is. Something along the lines of an ADELT used on SAR aircraft, perhaps. But you impose all those penalties (weight, cost, opportunity for error and failure rate) on every aircraft built.

It leaves a bad taste in one's mouth to think it comes down to a willingness to spend money. But, it still has to be feasible to design, manufacture, sell and service. And that includes economic feasibility. And it is more than just money. You also increase the risks.

[25F]

Here is the mystery 24m object and a 777-200, more or less to scale.

(First attempt got modded, maybe I was supposed to use the img link tags.)
http://oi62.tinypic.com/124vq5s.jpghttp://

[captains_log]

Philipat - This aircraft was deliberately flown, by human intervention, around sensitive waypoints by someone(s) who knew what they were doing. Why we don't know. And I suspect that is what was intended. IMHO.

Do we have any actual proof of this so far? We have some pings and a last known point no actual proven flight path has been published? :(

[GQ2]

That image could almost be a section of fuz and wing-roots...with chutes/rafts deployed. It begs the question; What are the sea temps, wind-chill there..? Any maritime survival experts here like to offer chances for survivors..?

[galaxy flyer]

WRT the "deployable ELT", the C-5A had something called CDPIR, can't recall the words to the acronym, but it was mounted on the top of the T-tail and was either released by pilot action or deployed at some loading and would float. It was a maintenance nightmare, often failing its BIT test and requiring an avionics man on a high lift. In the end, it was removed on the B-models and replaced by a conventional ELT.

It's possible, but cost is the issue

[oldoberon]

I read earlier cvr was now 24hr not the old 30 mins, they are digital not tape so even if wiped or over written forensic analysis will reveal a lot (given time).

pls corect me if wrong in general and specifcally on this aircraft

[FE Hoppy]

CVR 2 hours
FDR 25 hours

[wiggy]

Not entirely but the flight path around Thai/Indonesian airspace in and arounf North Sumatera is NOT a path that would have been flown randomly.

I think the question being posed is not why was that flight path used, but is there any evidence that flightpath was actually flown.

[mickjoebill]

It's possible, but cost is the issue
Fast track solution is to scatter $200 plbs throughout the cabin.
Assign plbs to passengers seated by the doors, make it a requirement to get the seat.
One on every slide, one by every door.
Half of the Flight crew and cabin crew to wear them.

New plbs could be designed with a delay and 60 second duration audible alarm to minimize effects of false and accidental alarms.

They need to be a little smaller in size.

[DCrefugee]

Even if the boxes are found. The CVR reveals nothing, The DFDR reveals a more precise version of what we roughly already know?

This was very intelligently planned by someone(s) who did not want the facts ever to be revealed??

Presuming the CVR is of the two-hour, looping variety, only the last two hours of cockpit activity would be recorded. The only way the CVR would have anything useful would be if someone was still alive and talking for the record.

This presumes no one opened the CVR circuit breaker at any point. If someone did open the breaker after a deliberate diversion was complete, perhaps to ensure a record of what happened in the cockpit, useful information may still be available.

If someone did open the breaker after the diversion began, it's also possible they closed it at some point when it was obvious there were less than two hours remaining until flameout, then made some kind of a statement.

All of which presumes MAS370's diversion was deliberate, not an accident.

[JamesCam]

Does the CVR have internal batteries, so that device continues to operate even if the aircraft's supply to it is lost or degraded?

[philipat]

I think the question being posed is not why was that flight path used, but is there any evidence that flightpath was actually flown.

Yes, fair point. I was simply assuming that at least SOME of the Malaysian information was correct, although that might be a stretch.

But I still do not believe there is any way that the aircraft flew over Indonesian airspace without being spotted. Aceh is a very sensitive area for Jakarta. The "Reported" flight path around the Northern tip of Sumatera would make sense ONLY if someone was trying to evade both Thai AND Indonesian detection? Other than that, I stand corrected.

[captains_log]

CVR 2 hours
FDR 25 hours


Sorry if this gets deleted as innapropriate im not sorry for saying it, 2 hours for CVR is an utter disgrace. In this day and age for compression and audio storage could easily be hundreds of hours to SSD. I hope if anything from this terrible loss of souls there is an extensive review of how voice/ data is recorded and tracked if lost due to tragedy or otherwise.
AF447 proved a 30day ping is massively inadequate, pitch SAR time against the extra cost of carrying a 21 century black box..

[geneman]

We have seen low-resolution satellite images of objects in the sea, reported to be around 25m long.

Given the sensitivity of surveillance techniques, we do not know the origin of the data or if other images are available, in the visual spectrum or via radar.

What someone COULD perhaps release is whether these objects have been detected by more than one satellite or during more than one pass of a satellite over this area.

If they have been seen only by a single satellite in a single pass, then their potential significance is greatly diminished.

There is obviously a lot of junk floating around the world's oceans.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

That image could almost be a section of fuz and wing-roots...with chutes/rafts deployed. It begs the question; What are the sea temps, wind-chill there..? Any maritime survival experts here like to offer chances for survivors..?

If that image is what you says ... this must be a beacon activated ....
Anyways if this was survivors in this zone ... not in raft or any floating object with some protection .. after so long time and with the average temperature .. my best guess is no survival possible

[Ian W]

I hesitate to add to pure speculation; but assuming this large object is part of the aircraft, this would mean we're looking at an impact gentle enough to not send big bits to the bottom, less than 12G to not set the ELT off, but solid enough not let anyone on board switch on the ELT if inclined to do so, nor deploy slides/rafts and trail an EPIRB. Does that sound about right?

ELTs rarely if ever work. When they were discussed previously there were many examples of inadvertent operations but almost no occasions when they have worked.

[philipat]

I posted a comment a couple of days ago saying that if the plane was flying on autopilot following an emergency it would have been difficult for it to have avoided Indonesian airspace. So therefore if it did avoid Indonesia airspace it's probably more evidence that it was being deliberately flown by someone. (I don't think this point was picked up for discussion at that time). That is exactly the point that I have been trying to make. But it is true that there is now NO direct evidence that the aircraft flew North out of Malaysian Airspace over the Staits of Malacca, out of Indonesian airspace then West, then South again to the South IO, BUT, if actually so, I STONGLY suggest that this was NOT random???

[Speed of Sound]

Can I remind those advocating 'detachable' DFDRs that apart from the obvious difficulty of the device extricating itself from a crushed wreckage, the idea is to locate the wreckage as well as the data recorders.

[MG23]

I can't see the last-but-one page, so it may have been posted already, but here's an interesting new WSJ article for those who thought Inmarsat took a long time to process and release the satellite data:

Critical Satellite Data Was Delayed in Search for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304026304579449680167673144)

[island_airphoto]

RE flight level 450:
That is high enough for the pax to pass out even using the passenger oxygen system :(

[AndyJS]

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/03/20/article-2584816-1C6FBFA400000578-209_634x609.jpg

[EFHF]

Are we to assume that the distress radiobeacon failed in this case, or that some of the data that the search and rescue teams have been using includes that received by this device?

I understand that these devices can react to either water immersion or impact forces?

Would be grateful for an answer from someone with knowledge.
Airborne distress beacons (ELTs) differ in design and certification philosophy from the recorders (CVR, FDR) in that they are really only designed to remain operable after survivable accidents and to assist in SAR efforts. The recorders OTOH are designed to contain their recordings in accidents which are not survivable to the crew and passengers, to assist in a different post crash activity, accident investigation.

The weakest link in airframe mounted ELTs is the antenna connection. If there is significant airframe disruption, the ELT to hull antenna connection is usually severed and without an antenna the ELT transmission is unlikely to reach the satellites or be heard on VHF guard frequency. Also even if the airframe is intact, it being inverted and the ELT antenna under the wreckage usually precludes proper transmission from the site.

Other distress beacon types (some PLBs for example) have internal automatically deploying antennas and do not rely on external atenna facilities to transmit effectively.

However, the design philosophy issue is carried over to other distress beacons in that for example there are maritime accidents where supposedly automatically releasing EPIRB buoys have failed when a vessel has capsized so fast that the EPIRB rack has gone under water at such an angle the buoy has failed to release and gone down with the ship instead. Those are also rarely survivable accidents for the ships crew.

[EPPO]

Yes, absolutely, especially now that digital memory is so cheap. A Tb hard drive could record the entire life of an aircarft CVR?

Yeah, but you'd need to replace it every two years or so. Flash memory 'wears out' with use, and mechanical HDs even more. An hour of qualified service personnel costs lots more than an SSD. Then add to the bill the cost of updating maintenance procedures, testing, certification...

Usually, you cannot have five-nines reliability with cutting-edge technology. You have to choose.

[wild goose]

Why bother trying to climb to FL450 with all the risks of coffin corner?
If they wanted to incapacitate everyone, why not depressurize at FL350 and let the pax O2 just run out.

Doesnt make sense:=

[er340790]

CASARA S&R Navigator / Spotter here:

Well, I took a look at those images and have to say that, to my eyes at least, they look more like wave-action. It would be nice to have zoomed-in and consecutive images to see if they changed at all with time.

Tomnod has coverage of the new areas, so if people do have any spare time, PLEASE log-on and give it a shot. :ok:

Just a personal observation - it seems incredible that MAS still has the relatives at KL. The 'expect the worst' message went out days ago and any possible wreckage only confirms a catastrophic crash. Surely the best thing is to get everyone home to calmly wait for the eventual facts to emerge, not this ongoing media circus(?)

[captains_log]

Please we do not have any substantial evidence of MH370 climbing to FL450 :(

[Speed of Sound]

I can't see the last-but-one page, so it may have been posted already, but here's an interesting new WSJ article for those who thought Inmarsat took a long time to process and release the satellite data:

I suspect that the Inmarsat 'ping' data was a victim of the backlash against the flood of unreliable information coming from the Malaysian authorities. At the time it was first offered, the authorities were under considerable criticism for releasing information one day then retracting it the next. So the first information of any significance was treated with kid gloves.

[FIRESYSOK]

Although confirmed by several 772 Drivers that a fully loaded and fueled 772 would NOT be capable of reaching FL450. Even FL 400 would be challenging at that stage of the flight??

They don't know that. One, the aircraft in question wasn't fully loaded. Two, no 777 pilot has tried to climb to 45000. Their FMS tells them they can't reach it safely, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have achieved that height if only for a few minutes.

[RetiredF4]

@PPMAGETO

I wonder, why your pic did not get any attention. First time i see the possible position arcs from the former sat-pings too.
What is the origin of this graph, I read BBC based on NTSB?

And big question: why is there no arc for the time 3:11? Aircraft unpowered or position arc identical with the 2:11 or 4:11 arc?

http://www.pprune.org/8390293-post6648.html

[D.S.]

captains_log (http://www.pprune.org/members/301553-captains_log) said

Do we have any actual proof of this so far? We have some pings and a last known point no actual proven flight path has been published?we have

- a few released/leaked hits

- Thailand saying it never left their radar (meaning for long, at least) and never crossed into their territory (which means WP start North of border over sea, go south a fair distance and skirt this non-linear border, WP end North of border over sea)

- No other radar hits anywhere anytime after the above series of hits to cross the Peninsula
(...well released hits, at least. There is the possibility some of the more "secrete" locations might have pinged it and they just don't want to publicly let people know said secrete locations are there. Little/No reason not to release hits from known radar locations though, and if one was deliberately trying to avoid radar, the known locations would be the only ones whoever was piloting would know to avoid)

- Governments involved (who have more data than us) saying they interpret everything as deliberate

... if not deliberate, it will probably be unbelievably difficult to come up with a series of events to produce what happened in reality. Would maybe be possible, but that's a possible well down the scale and rather on the verge of impossible

[LASJayhawk]

I don't see how it could have been flying HDG. The last 2 pings were at 7:11 and 8:11 on the same 40 degree arc. That implies to me that it flew to a waypoint before 7:11 and went into a holding pattern at it.

Are there any waypoints in the search area that would meet the criteria?

[ianwood]

I took a break from following the frenzy of posts some 40 pages ago. Some amazing intelligence on satellites and RF. Very impressive. But I am also amazed by the number of posts from seemingly intelligent and informed people who are STILL advancing theories on decompression, fire or other mechanical failure. At least one major news outlet has been parroting the same unfounded and emotionally driven theories having read them on this site!

[MagnusP]

US satellite the unspoken source that sparked search (http://www.smh.com.au/national/us-satellite-the-unspoken-source-that-sparked-search-20140320-355zt.html)

This may inform the debate.

[500N]

Magnus

I just read that before I came on here. Confirms what John Young didn't say in the PC.

Interesting thing that was said was the re tasking of two satellites to produce high res images
of the area so it will be interesting what they show.

[buttrick]

With no IFF all supposed radar returns are suspect!

[aa5bpilot]

@geneman

Given the sensitivity of surveillance techniques, we do not know the origin of the data or if other images are available, in the visual spectrum or via radar.
Based on the images linked from post 6512 (http://www.pprune.org/8389567-post6512.html) (permalink? (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-post8389567.html)) they are sourced from Digital Globe. Coordinates and time are also available in the margins, which have been cropped out in many media articles.

What someone COULD perhaps release is whether these objects have been detected by more than one satellite or during more than one pass of a satellite over this area.According to the story from post 6636 (http://www.pprune.org/8390203-post6636.html) (permalink? (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-post8390203.html)), the suspected debris has been corroborated by more than one satellite. I suspect the released photos were intentionally sourced from civilian data.

[PriFly]

Because your map is wrong. Haven't we been through this like 4000 posts ago where the Last Known location was somewhere in the Indian Ocean/Andaman Sea and NOT in SCS?

[D.S.]

on the "more satellite images likely" / "satellite images should be very detailed ... look at Google's images!" thing, I just want to throw this out

Remember, Google has plenty of time to take as many detailed shots as they like. They can zoom in the focus to get the best possible image - they know what they are going for, and know it aint gonna be moving anytime soon

This isnt quite the case here though. They are searching Thousands of miles, in a quick time period, on a moving surface

These images were from 4 days ago already. They are likely a portion of multiple snaps as the entire region was being quick scanned at a resolution high enough to spot something, low enough to allow for the entire area to be hit with said images to be gone over. They likely made a few passes, but I doubt there was a ton of them. There likely isn't a more zoomed in snap of this as they didn't know for a couple days to even zoom in a shot right there; there was that much area being searched.

At this point (and really, since they started narrowing down the search to smaller and smaller areas) they have probably been taking higher resolution zoomed in snaps. But this is 4 days later, that debris possibly isn't even there anymore so who knows if they have even been able to find it once again on another satellite image.

Not saying they don't have more images, they very well could. And not saying this is exactly the resolution - I imagine they may have blurred it little. But I doubt there are images anywhere near the resolution we would see of say, the released images of suspicious whatever peaking out of the sand in Afghanistan cira-2002, let alone anything close to the Google like "omg, I can see the gnome on my lawn!" type snaps.

IMO, at least

[fg32]

RetiredF4And big question: why is there no arc for the time 3:11? Aircraft unpowered or position arc identical with the 2:11 or 4:11 arc?
Please lets not start a whole new cascade of misunderstanding based on casual reading of PPMAGENTO's map. The arcs other than the red one at 8.11 are GUESSES. No such arc information has been released

Seriously, unless I have missed something, only ONE ping has ever been released, though the existence of more (5?) unreleased ones has been hinted but not confirmed. And we might assume that those involved have used them to "fit the dots" and refine their predictions. (e.g. the Aussie search area ?). But we can't be sure, I think, and we don't have them ourselves. So not released or leaked. Not the ping angles.

[Ian W]

Sorry if this gets deleted as innapropriate im not sorry for saying it, 2 hours for CVR is an utter disgrace. In this day and age for compression and audio storage could easily be hundreds of hours to SSD. I hope if anything from this terrible loss of souls there is an extensive review of how voice/ data is recorded and tracked if lost due to tragedy or otherwise.
AF447 proved a 30day ping is massively inadequate, pitch SAR time against the extra cost of carrying a 21 century black box..

I fully agree. With terabyte SSDs consumer items there is no excuse for being this parsimonious. I would think the only excuse is that by comparison to previous recording systems the current CVR/DFDR are an improvement. However, even carrying the recordings is now becoming obsolete with recording to 'the cloud' being perfectly feasible. And had that been the case with MH370 this thread would have been considerably shorter and a lot of anguish would have been spared.

[fg32]

MagnusP

US satellite the unspoken source that sparked search

This may inform the debate.
I don't really think so.
This is media garbage.
These images are not from a sensitive US source (implied "governmental") whose identity needs protecting. They are from a commercial organisation that proudly plasters its copyright notice in the corner of each. The very organisation that proudly claims it immediately manoeuvred its satellites to get the original South China Sea images that appeared so promptly on their own crowd-sourced photo search engine Tomnod.

[awblain]

The published images have a Digital Globe stamp, and appear to match Digital Globe satellite performance, so there's no reason to suspect those images came from a more expensive Three Letter Agency's resources.

Hopefully much more did, on which the Australians' seemingly confident despatch of ships and aircraft was based. The best indication of where it was at would be if a radar satellite pass had caught it in flight. Then the speed, direction and link to the red arc would be assured, if not publicly known.

[Pontius Navigator]

Or was the aircraft excursion on Plan A, skirting Indonesia and Thai airspace and then something else happened that resulted in a turn on to south?

Postulating: the aircraft was under control for the first part of the excursion by, let us suppose, a hijacker. Then, while heading NW, something happened to disable the hijacker and this resulted in the turn south. At this point there was no competent pilot available to control the flight.

[GQ2]

@'DS';- you talked about satellite resolution with regard to Google. Sure, the high-level stuff is from satellites. However, all the detailed, zoomable stuff is from normal, coventional aerial-photography. If Google satellites were THAT good, the military wouldn't need their own assets...!

[25F]

It's quite possible that the USA's NRO has obtained some high-res images of these "objects of interest", either before or after the civilian images were obtained. And then shared the results of the analysis, if not the actual images, with the civilians. Hence a great deal of activity over some fairly blurry "things". One of which just looks too big, to my uneducated eyes.

[FE Hoppy]

I think we can put the FL450 to bed can't we?

The FL450 claim was related to PSR and therefore not very accurate.
I haven't seen a source for the claim.

However a 777 pilot did test it out in the sim and got pretty close http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-303.html#post8387369

However he had the wrong engines and if the post a couple of pages back is to be believed he was a tad too heavy.

Could it have got to FL450? Most probably yes. Did it? We don't know and it's not important.

If the purpose was to incapacitate the passengers then an hour at 35000ft cabin alt would do the job too.

[fg32]

D.S.
On more careful reading of your post, is see you were indeed using the word "ping" in a different sense. I should have concentrated harder on the context. Apologies. I shall take the liberty of editing my post to remove reference to yours.

[Squawk_ident]

GQ2

That image could almost be a section of fuz and wing-roots...with chutes/rafts deployed. It begs the question; What are the sea temps, wind-chill there..? Any maritime survival experts here like to offer chances for survivors..?
The first inhabited land not too far from the believed spot is the French island Ile Amsterdam, aka Nouvelle Amsterdam. There is a permanent scientists base here of about 20/35 researchers. The French Wiki proposes a concise description of this island including a weather summary.

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amsterdam_(île)
The air temperature is never low especially in this season but it rains a lot and all the year here. January, February and March are the warmer months.

[costalpilot]

The same information source that gave us a descent of 45k fpm (the descent rate of a meteorite, as one ppruner pointed out) also gave us the climb to fl450. Apparently that source was hung up on 45. If one number is clearly wrong, the others are obviously suspect as well.

CNN had a reporter and a t7 pilot in a t7 sim the day after the suspect claim was made, and among otherthings the pilot demonstrated was a zoom climb to fl450. Im sure the pilot was smart enuff to program approximate numbers into the sim. He made it up there, but there was no safe speed indication on the speed tape. The yellow and red were completly merged and the guy was barely able to hang on to it. And why go there in the first place.

one ppruner makes the point that having Diego Garcia in the sim program indicated to him something nefarious on the part of the pilot. The ppruner thought having it in the program was a clear indication of bad intent. Which goes to show that "a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."Imo.

apparently some ppruners missed the admission by the Malaysian gubment that their radar picked up MH 370 going across their sky after the diversion but failed to do anything about it.

[SLFplatine]

Philipat: I would think Indonesia would have taken notice of a plane sans ident heading 263 out of Malaysian airspace and over the Malacca Strait, No? The Indonesian Defense Minister said Indonesia military radar did not pick up any signs of MH370. (Of course he did not say they did not pick up any signs of any aircraft that morning one of which might possibly have been MH370)

[oldoberon]

RetiredF4
Please lets not start a whole new cascade of misunderstanding based on casual reading of PPMAGENTO's map. The arcs other than the red one at 8.11 are GUESSES. No such arc information has been released

Seriously, unless I have missed something, only ONE ping has ever been released, though the existence of more (5?) unreleased ones has been hinted but not confirmed. And we might assume that those involved have used them to "fit the dots" and refine their predictions. (e.g. the Aussie search area ?). But we can't be sure, I think, and we don't have them ourselves. So not released or leaked. Not the ping angles.

up until AMSA the reports of more pings were wsj, a us official, although volcnicash in his post on the 16th said the briefer has confirmed it, I have watched that but it is not in his "speech" so i am assuming it was a question/answer

However the AMSA guy stated there were 6 more pings which have been analysed

[maliyahsdad2]

I fully agree. With terabyte SSDs consumer items there is no excuse for being this parsimonious. I would think the only excuse is that by comparison to previous recording systems the current CVR/DFDR are an improvement. However, even carrying the recordings is now becoming obsolete with recording to 'the cloud' being perfectly feasible. And had that been the case with MH370 this thread would have been considerably shorter and a lot of anguish would have been spared.

Except whatever caused the possible total communications failures on MH370 could also knock out the cloud version (c)CVR/(c)DFDR at the crucial moment.

[Yancey Slide]

Even if intact, the wing tanks have vents, and I would expect them to be filled with water after this length of time.

IIRC, the overflow vents are fitted with one-way valves. Course, that assumes empty airtight tank flooding through the vents rather than any of the other possible ingress avenues (fuel quantity sensor holes, fill caps, broken fuel lines as it detached from the engine and hull, et al....)

[fg32]

oldoberon
However the AMSA guy stated there were 6 more pings which have been analysedYes. On the probabilities I think they exist, and have been used. Available to some, but not to us.
And they are NOT as marked on PPMAGENTO's map. Those are guesses.

Just trying to stop disinformation spreading. It propagates like a d**n virus once started.

[A_Van]

Some semi-off-topic observation, sorry....


Reading again and again about those "inmarsat pings" I feel myself back in 70's and not in the second decade of the XXI century.


Military world (aviation, first of all) has Link-16 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Link_16) in place for more than 20 years allowing a crowd of various entities (airborne, maritime, ground platforms) to operate collectively in the same information environment, in real time, all over the world.


More recent frameworks like LVC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Live,_virtual,_and_constructive) allow real pilots operating real airplanes train collectively with their colleagues operating sims at the AF bases on the ground. When first such experiments started some 5-6 years ago I once asked a guy about his feelings expecting him saying "well, you know, it's just a trick and fun". But he was serious and the only complaint was about no wingman seen when he was turning his head in the cockpit when in the air. The stuff from the same very Boeing (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130121/TSJ01/301210009/Boeing-Expands-ILVC-Project), by the way.


Moreover, modern technologies (http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/joint-battle-command-platform-jbc-p-enters-production-and-deployment-phase/) allow a regular dismounted infantry soldier to stay online in real-time, even he/she is in the middle of nowhere. Satellite networks such as MUOS (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_User_Objective_System) secure a 64+ Kbps connection, which is enough not to only send telemetry, but interact with team members.
Some "other civil worlds", like e.g. car makers start using IoT (internet of things) techniques to let cars talk to each other and service centers.

With all that mentioned, it looks outrageous that aircraft carrying hundreds of passengers just sends trivial pings every hour, and these ping data are even not easy to find and analyze. Add 1 buck to the ticket price and with 1 Bln passenger per year you can build and deploy, in a few years, a MUOS-like network specially serving civil aviation. And enjoy a hell of data in real-time, in a shared global data space, including not only flight variables but heartbeat rate, blood pressure etc. of every crew member. Of course everything is encrypted and could be decrypted only by those concerned.

[Triskelle]

It seems from today's posts that some people still doubt the scenario leading to the search area. I agree with some of the comments about 'why perform such an elusive flight path to ultimately ditch in the ocean?'. Also the assumed path after loss of contact with civilian ATC appears to be based on military primary radar tracks with no secondary radar identification. I've gone back to the start of this mystery and looked at MODIS images for the area. On 8th March there were some fires and smoke visible NE of Quang Khe in Vietnam - which very close to the planned flight path and also on the same radial from the communications satellite as the published 'arcs' (but in the area between the N & S arcs, if extrapolated). The fires were not apparent on the 6th March, probably not there on 7th (although SCT/BKN CU over the area), visible on 8th but not there on 9th (although perhaps one faint area surviving). Just possibly MH370 if control was lost soon after the last contact with ATC? The MODIS image can be found at Rapid Response - LANCE - Subsets (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=FAS_Indochina.2014067.aqua.721.250m) (MODIS Aqua bands 7-2-1 at 250m resolution) and the area of interest on 8th March is close to the right edge of the image about 2/3 of the way down. Apologies if this idea has already been explored but I though it perhaps worth adding to this thread as another possibility.

[oldoberon]

oldoberon
Yes. On the probabilities I think they exist, and have been used. Available to some, but not to us.
And they are NOT as marked on PPMAGENTO's map. Those are guesses.

Just trying to stop disinformation spreading. It propagates like a d**n virus once started.


The clearly stated they exist.

everything 100% agree with your reply

[RichardC10]

oldoberon
up until AMSA the reports of more pings were wsj, a us official, although volcnicash in his post on the 16th said the briefer has confirmed it, I have watched that but it is not in his "speech" so i am assuming it was a question/answer

However the AMSA guy stated there were 6 more pings which have been analysed I guess they will not release the other ping data. The arcs from the last ping made the public point that MH370 wasn't in the South China Sea. After that there is no up-side to releasing more data - it will just spawn loads of duff amateur analysis (including my own) that doesn't help them in any way.

[Ian W]

Isn't this 'cloud' just marketing terminology and it's really a dusty old server in someone's back yard? I wouldn't store my aunty's birthday photos there, let alone vitally important data.

The term 'The Cloud' really means remote storage somewhere. For air safety this could be NTSB or AAIB servers or wherever. The main point being that it is not on or part of the device doing the recording of the data. So instead of the aircraft recording to a device secreted somewhere in the aircraft that then has to be found and decoded if it survived, the data is immediately available for decoding if there is an emergency. Allowing SAR and investigation to start immediately after an incident. By putting the storage in the NTSB (or similar) it should allay the concerns that some pilots have of management misusing the data.

[oldoberon]

Can't see what PPMAGENTO posted but Washington Post has 4 rings - but they could be back-calculated?

Objects sighted may be linked to Flight MH370 - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/satellite-locates-malaysian-flight-370-still-flying-seven-hours-after-takeoff/2014/03/15/96627a24-ac86-11e3-a06a-e3230a43d6cb_graphic.html)

they said there were 4 from their 1st or 2nd report, just because they have 4 they are sticking with it because that's all they have,

[Ornis]

A Van
With all that mentioned, it looks outrageous that aircraft carrying hundreds of passengers just sends trivial pings every hour, and these ping data are even not easy to find and analyze.

The pings establish a link for the data stream - ACARS.

[Lost in Saigon]

Even if intact, the wing tanks have vents, and I would expect them to be filled with water after this length of time.

IIRC, the overflow vents are fitted with one-way valves. Course, that assumes empty airtight tank flooding through the vents rather than any of the other possible ingress avenues (fuel quantity sensor holes, fill caps, broken fuel lines as it detached from the engine and hull, et al....)

I would assume one-way valves are there to keep the fuel from venting overboard. There must also be vents that allow air into the tank as fuel is consumed.


http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y17/msowsun/photo%20stuff/Photo14/typical_Boeing_vent_system.jpg~original

[MG23]

With all that mentioned, it looks outrageous that aircraft carrying hundreds of passengers just sends trivial pings every hour, and these ping data are even not easy to find and analyze.

That is all they do... when someone turns all the other reporting features off.

In a normal flight, it would have been sending ADS and other data on a periodic basis (or when the status changed), reporting position and other information.

[awblain]

The only issue remaining is how to ensure constant connection with the cloud during the important failing/crashing/screwing-up bits.

A live satellite data link would be of some use on non-polar routes, but when things went wrong enough to care about what was being recorded, could that link be assured to still be working?

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

I suspect that the Inmarsat 'ping' data was a victim of the backlash against the flood of unreliable information coming from the Malaysian authorities. At the time it was first offered, the authorities were under considerable criticism for releasing information one day then retracting it the next. So the first information of any significance was treated with kid gloves.

Just reported on UK BBC News, Inmarsat apparently gone public with the view that:
(a) they are surprised that the search continued in the S China Sea after last Wednesday, 8 days ago, when they sent the satellite data to Malaysia, as the pings clearly pointed to the two well-known arcs we've seen as the likely location of MAS370
(b) they can't understand why the concentration on two corridors following the two arcs because in their view the aircraft was at one end or the other, not somewhere along the arc, "according to the laws of physics", and most likely to be south as the northern route would have likely been picked up by radar as it crossed several countries.

[oldoberon]

oldoberon
I guess they will not release the other ping data. The arcs from the last ping made the public point that MH370 wasn't in the South China Sea. After that there is no up-side to releasing more data - it will just spawn loads of duff amateur analysis (including my own) that doesn't help them in any way.

at the very earliest when the 1st report comes from the investigating authority which may well be Oz by the look of it,

[NigelOnDraft]

For air safety this could be NTSB or AAIB servers or wherever. ..... By putting the storage in the NTSB (or similar) it should allay the concerns that some pilots have of management misusing the data.Are you really sure you, and other passengers, would wish to see airline tickets costs shoot up to support this, and the numerous cancellations / delays / diversion caused whenever the Satcom could not get/lost a "logon"?

Take ACARS as an example. A long standing system that (for me) only uses VHF in central Europe. Breaks / fails often, sometimes intermittently, sometimes for rest of flight.

These systems are not designed for safety, are "nice to haves" commercially, and some airlines just do not use them for cost reasons. it is a massive step to elevate them to "flight safety" / "No Despatch MEL items".

[bfd777]

The sat image is multispectral and can be used to discriminate various "spectral signatures". Depending on which sat this came from it would have 1.8-2.4m resolution in multispectral and 50-60 cm in panchromatic.

[paull]

fg32


And they are NOT as marked on PPMAGENTO's map. Those are guesses.

Many on here, myself, oldoberon, PontiusNavigator, have been saying this is something that can and has been done.

We know the pings exist, we know that Inmarsat/SITA provided a map like this, but less refined as early as the 10th. If you say we do not have it, then the only way you can tell us that PPMAGENTO's map is wrong is if YOU have the data and hence know those are (bad) guesses.

The last bit of the tracks also appear on the Australian presentation at the press conference, marked as provided by NTSB. So, do you have the data? I see you are London based, as is Inmarsat, if you know for a FACT it is wrong, then say so.

[awblain]

I can understand Inmarsat's point of view about "following the lines", since
they did go to the trouble of ended the arcs at a reasonable point that is about a range-of-the-aircraft distant from the departure point, noting that a call at 0911 just didn't happen.

[arearadar]

How did the Malaysians identify supposed MH370 ?

No Secondary, no turn and observe as no communication.

[buttrick]

Fuel systems on aircraft vent inwards and out wards. This makes sure that fuel is usable even if tank pressurisation is lost!!

[Yancey Slide]

I would assume one-way valves are there to keep the fuel from venting overboard. There must also be vents that allow air into the tank as fuel is consumed.

The pressure vents on the aircraft I flew were generally part of the fueling cap and were spring-loaded closed. As fuel was pulled out of the tank the vacuum would overcome the springloading and allow air in to equalize the pressure (intentionally simplified..)

[oldoberon]

arearadar they had it on primary and so did vietnamese, when it turned back.

[JamesCam]

the data is immediately available for decoding if there is an emergency. Allowing SAR and investigation to start immediately after an incident. By putting the storage in the NTSB (or similar) it should allay the concerns that some pilots have of management misusing the data.

All good as long as the transmissions to the remote storage cannot be inhibited by actions on the aircraft. Unlikely at best. Probably best to retain the physical DFDR on the aircraft as well as a backup.

FDR and CVR boxes were historically provided to provide evidence for crash investigations after an accident, not an attack on the aircraft. Clearly the latter scenario requires protection of the equipment in ways not previously envisaged. As others have said, the pitiful voice storage time really needs addressing too! It needs to be at least greater than the endurance of the aircraft with a full fuel load.

This subject is probably best shifted to Tech Log as not really relevant to the current situation.

[AndyJS]

Economist article:

"The disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet shows how air-traffic communications need to be updated"

The enigma of flight 370: The sound of silence | The Economist (http://www.economist.com/news/international/21599378-disappearance-malaysia-airlines-passenger-jet-shows-how-air-traffic-communications?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/soundofsilence)

[OleOle]

- Inmarsat-C uses TDM (time division multiplexing).
- Symbol duration within the time slots is 8.64s/10368 symbols = 833 microseconds per symbol

Transmissions in adjacent time slots have to arrive at the receiver (satellite) within the accuracy of one symbol. => Propagation delay has to be known with min. accuracy of 833 microseconds which is corresponds to 250km.

That is imho the upper error margin for the ping accuracy. For reasons given earlier I'm still optimistic accuracy is far better.

The arcs with greater radius have more favorable geometry thus accuracy is better further out. Think cutting a tomato (earth) into slices. Put the tomato to the far left of the cutting board and imagine the satellite to the far right. Each cut through the tomato marks points that are equidistant to the satellite. The skin of the slices is the set of points on the surface that lie within the error margin. The outer slices (those closer to the satellite) have more skin, i.e bigger error.

Stand to be corrected.

[costalpilot]

Just a hunch but if a heavy crashes into the ocean I dont xpect the presence of one way valves or vents would have any relevance as to the buoyacy of the CRASHEd wing.

imo

[richardgb]

Can I ask a fairly basic question.

Is there anywhere an unimpeachable peer reviewed and generally acknowledged statement of the known facts as opposed to theories?

For instance do we know with any degree of certainty whether the various statements about:

changes in altitude,
following pre-programmed way points
published zig zag tracks
fuel load on departure
whether the last verbal communication was before or after the initial divergence from the flight plan
satellite ping data and the consequent assumptions about the two arcs of likely location
radar or lack of radar returns
...and several others
are known to be true with any high degree of certainty?

Is international law / convention involved here and if so which is the authority that is charged with bringing all this data together. Is it in fact the Malaysian government/Aviation authority as appears to be the case judging by what we see on the television?

[Lonewolf_50]

I respectfully disagree with The Economist. Their analysis does not appear to handle the simple matter of "On" / "Off" switches. They seem to have missed a point during editing:
Planes far out at sea keep in touch using VHF radio, and the newer ones send ACARS data continuously via satellite.
Depends on the options chosen by the airline, doesn't it? I don't think "continuously" is correct, based on what folks who understand these systems have presented in this discussion.

I suspect they meant "HF radio" for planes "far out at sea" since VHF is line of sight. On the other hand, how far from shore "far out at sea" means could depend upon who is reading the article.

[D.S.]

arearadar (http://www.pprune.org/members/337713-arearadar) said

How did the Malaysians identify supposed MH370 ?

No Secondary, no turn and observe as no communication.Per March 11 (I believe it was) press conference said radar hits were corroborated in at least some areas with civilian radar (we have no details of this, just that Daud said this). Hits being a feasible flight path for MH370, approximate rough idea of specs on unidentified blips and process of elimination (how many 777-like 'unidentified' planes are flying around at 2AM?) would lead to a very high degree of certainty, I would imagine.

Also, they (Malaysia) and Vietnam both recognized the turn within moments of it happening, somehow, as both countries said as much in the first couple days. It is possible the turn was before Transponder dropped, or that both countries had secondary on it at that time, but they are just not telling us that.

[buttrick]

The Inmarsat arcs shown at the pcs are for the 8:11 ping only! The others may or may not coincide with them.

To get down where the flotsam has been found the other pings would very likely be coincident.

IF (big if) the flotsam is 370 then there would not have been enough fuel to get there AND do all the Radar returns etc!!

[arearadar]

Where does it say that the a/c was continuously tracked without a break, thus retaining identification ?
I read that a/c disappeared from radar.
After that. primary returns were observed but identification was not confirmed. How could it be ?
As a controller of 33 years experience that wouldn`t satisfy me.

[awblain]

Lonewolf, you don't have to be respectful to the Economist, although it does usually provoke some thought at least.

And they do have a point that this repeated misplacing of large airliners is getting to be a bit of an embarrassment.

But, if you want to talk, you need power, and when you most want to talk, you may not have any. A location and direction at last power would at least have been helpful in the cases of AF447 and today.

[fg32]

paull
If you say we do not have it, then the only way you can tell us that PPMAGENTO's map is wrong is if YOU have the data and hence know those are (bad) guesses.

PPMAGENTO's arcs are guesses. Not because I say so. Because he says so. Look closely.

And in all these 6000 odd posts, and all my reading, I have never seen the number for any arc but the 40deg one. If you have, I am eager to hear.
I don't know what gave the impression that I was claiming special knowledge. Quite the opposite.

Now the Washington Post's arcs just may be a horse of another colour. Might be the first flicker of a leak. Good find. I am digesting them.

[kenish]

If the two floating objects turn out to be from the 777, they might be the horizontal stab assembly and the vertical fin. Mass media incorrectly reports the vertical to be 20m / 60 feet. This is the height of the tail above the tarmac parked on the ramp, not the size of the vertical itself. I'd estimate the vertical is 10m / 30 feet which is close to the smaller object.

The horizontal stabilizer is a single assembly made up of the left and right surfaces and the carry-through structure. It's not two surfaces bolted to the sides of the fuselage since it obviously needs to be very robust. A severe g-load (in the air or an impact) that caused a horizontal stab failure would likely separate it as a unit. The span is 24m / 71 feet, again close to the reported dimensions of the larger object.

I'm not sure if the stab contains fuel tanks...if it does, they would presumably be empty and further help with floatation. A 777 expert can clarify/correct this point. Recall the AFA447 vertical was afloat for 5 days with no signs of sinking.

Hope the objects are from the 777 and lead to FDR and CVR.

[Pace]

Not difficult, but expensive.

How expensive has all this searching been? Should we rely on an antiquated black box which is probably miles down somewhere in the ocean and will probably never been found to get answers.

someone should have known the answers in detail soon after the aircraft went missing.

the Airfrance accident took two years this is likely to never be found.

[Dalex64]

re: 'too much data'

Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight: Why Black Boxes Don?t Transmit Data in Real Time - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2014/03/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-why-black-boxes-dont-transmit-data-in-real-time/)

[Ancient Mariner]

Some 2.9 billion people used air transport to help them realize their business and tourism needs in 2012, according to preliminary figures on scheduled services released today by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

It should not be necessaty to increase the ticket prize by much to make data enter the "could".
Per

[x_navman]

Too much data'

Really? How much room does say 12 hours worth of a series of numbers sampled say every 5 seconds really take up.

And if bandwidth is a problem then isn't the answer to add more. Wouldn't a few more satellites paid for by the world's aviation industries cost less than the sorts of monies that are now being expended?

I'd like to see an analysis of the complexities and economics. Has one ever been done?

i think live data - even if it's just a subset of the full recording would be useful, and probably possible with the current satellite communications system.

But the suggestions I've seen onTV of real time video streamed from all commercial aircraft in the air, over a satellite communication network, is almost certainly not possible without a whole new satellite system.

You would want at least some reasonable video quality - not like the CCTV footage on crime TV shows, where you can't tell who it is or what they are doing.

Just like home internet connections, satellites data services are optimized for much greater bandwdith down than up, and they are not really designed for video streaming. a satellite connection for streaming is _much_ more expensive than just a regular data connection, and at least for the common services, even streaming is mostly restricted to 256kb/sec or 512/kb/sec, so not very high res. also, the antennas are huge.

[awblain]

The Washington Post has presumably taken the Australian search box, drawn straight lines - ideally great circles - back from either side of it towards the "last contact", and without too much difficulty plotted circles that are centered on the satellite footprint, and cross the tracks 500 miles back from the 0811 track.

Perhaps they had some official advice on whether that was appropriate or perhaps not. They do label them as provided by the NTSB, so I guess that's probably true. The Australian box extends East - so maybe that's for currents, or maybe there's something else the Australians are taking into account.

However, assuming the Australian box is right, then to be there at 0811, there isn't much option but to head there in something like a straight line.

[Hunter58]

@arearadar

The only confirmation given regarding radar coverage was that civil radar operating with SSR obviously lost signal from the flight. There never was any communication regarding whether the military ever lost the signal or not. As a former military operator myself I believe that the system never lost track and never reidentified the target since it was recognized as civil / friend or whatever they use in Malaysia.

Command centers and the associated computers do auto-track and target building since the early 1960, so no real tecnological breacktrough. And if the civil system report data into the military one any flight identified by the civil system will be auto-updated to a friendly.

Why would you check a civil target taking a shortcut as long as he does not fly into some active military airspace and most logically the civvies have cleared him direct?

[Pontius Navigator]

Where does it say that the a/c was continuously tracked without a break, thus retaining identification ?
I read that a/c disappeared from radar.
After that. primary returns were observed but identification was not confirmed. How could it be ?
As a controller of 33 years experience that wouldn`t satisfy me.

For a controller I would agree that you would be seeking additional corroboration.

As a surveillance operator on the other hand, if I had dots 1, 2, . ,. ,. 4, ., 6
where the spacing accords with the estimated speed allowing for missing returns on a number of sweeps (even where the 'sweep' are not shown on the display) then I would consider that as possibly 'my' track. This is for a non-cooperating track where squawk flash or ident turns could not be requested. If there were no other 'Unknowns' then I would consider I had a coherent track and apply a track number to it.

In this case I think they would have to work on probabilities and not certainties.

PS

I agree with Hunter58. If the military had the primary labelled as Friendly then it would be tracked through the turn back.

PPS, thank you MPN11 ( see we are of an age :))

[wewereborndrunk]

If this latest find west of Australia turns out to be the missing aircraft I'm wondering if Australia's over the horizon radar (Radar Jindalee Operational Radar Network) wouldn't have already detected its final flight?

I think its possible that there are military surveillance systems which are capable of detecting large aircraft in this part of the world from a long distance away, and that its possible that government agencies wouldn't want to disclose their technological capabilities publicly for security reasons.

[Hunter58]

The Economist got it wrong. The only real reason for a live datastream would be that the TV networks can immediately get crews to the crashsite to sell better pictures.

And in this particular case my gut feeling is that there were too many political hick-hacks pared with absurd levels of paranoia that led to immense amounts of men and material being wasted.

The basic ingredient for any serious investigation or analysis however is missing: the use of the brain.

[threl]

Yesterday the Transport Minister mentioned that they had received further radar data but that he was not at liberty to discuss it any further. IIRC a journo asked a question about that point, and the Transport Minister just repeated himself, and then added that 'also you have to understand that this data can be sensitive to the countries involved'. Does anybody have any theories as to where this data could be from? It was not mentioned by the TM today IIRC.

[Elephant and Castle]

Common guys get a bit of perspective.

World car accident related deaths run at about 1,3 million per year.
World commercial aviation accident deaths at under 500 per year.

Should we wish to spend some money to reduce the number of accidental deaths launching lots more satelites to stream live video from all aircaft at all times would be pretty low down the list. Even if we wished to concentrate in aviation the money would be better spent on recruitment, training and fatigue avoidance.

Legislating in the heat of the moment based on the latest media frenzy is rarely a good idea.

[MPN11]

arearadar and Pontious ... A "guess-ident" by an experienced controller doesn't conform to established rules, of course. UKADGE operators were, in my experience, not quite as picky, but they usually got it right.

I spent much of a tour at 11Gp getting ATC and ADGE talking the same language ... But the full ident procedure of turns and/or squawk doesn't deny the fact that an experienced operator knows what he's looking at, in his own airspace, with a high degree of certainty. Regardless of whether they're talking to each other.

[chalkhill-blue]

It's interesting to hear how many nations now have maritime patrol aircraft in the search area or heading that way. If a B777 disappeared over the North Sea for example, the UK would be seriously embarrassed. Following the retirement of the Nimrod MR2, and the scrapping of the MRA4, the British military would not have a single properly-equipped aircraft to deploy.

[NWT]

See the BBC reporting earlier this evening that Imarsat gave the Malaysians the info that the 'ping's had been received two days after the disappearance....

[Squawk_ident]

Sunrise and sunset at these coordinates:
2357/ 1207 UTC
Source:
sunrisesunsetmap.com

[GarageYears]

It's interesting to hear how many nations now have maritime patrol aircraft in the search area or heading that way. If a B777 disappeared over the North Sea for example, the UK would be seriously embarrassed. Following the retirement of the Nimrod MR2, and the scrapping of the MRA4, the British military would not have a single properly-equipped aircraft to deploy. :D Was thinking the same thing last night... perhaps we could get some lads with binoculars to stand on the loading ramp of an A400M transport... I lost track whether any have been delivered to date, or am I still a few years early?

[Heli-phile]

Just create a waypoint

[NorthernKestrel]

RE 'Live streaming of 'black-box' data


Interesting post on RAeS website suggesting not 24/7 downlinks but a datadump of FDR/CVR stuff when 'triggered' by abnormal attitudes, rapid descents, depressurisation or even a 'panic button' for crew/FAs


Royal Aeronautical Society | Insight Blog | MH370 ? implications of a ?Black Swan? aviation event (http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/1955/MH370-implications-of-a-Black-Swan-aviation-event)

[ettore]

The Economist got it wrong. The only real reason for a live datastream would be that the TV networks can immediately get crews to the crashsite to sell better pictures.

It's just the other way around. TV outlets and yellow press filled much more prime time and pages with an un solved disappearence than they would had with a quick and efficient SAR.

BTW, what did you mention at the end of your posting, old grumpy Hunter ?


... : the use of the brain.;);)

[Intelshare]

That map the Washington Post just had with new ping arcs on it. I rang them and asked if their data was reliable or just artistic license and we had a discussion about the importance of accuracy before "a thousand geeks waste days plotting potential northern locations as well". So the lady understood what
I meant.

She said their data for the arcs, which they believe to based on an official Malaysian release, was from here..

Here?s what?s odd about that map of MH370?s final satellite ping (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/03/19/heres-whats-odd-about-that-map-of-mh370s-final-satellite-ping/)

Unless I missed something important about that blog post, I wouldn't get too excited.

---
I can't seem to post, so I'll add it to this old message.

Guys,

I'm getting bombarded with complaints about deletions here, a statistically significant number of which are all to do with a certain subject.

If your message stays up longer than ten minutes, you are on the wrong track.

Which is bizarre as I thought that missing altitude data post was really onto something. Perhaps its potential importance was overlooked?

I heard a couple of days ago that there was significant news, and I don't mean a catamaran or a pallet, the deletions all on one subject would tend to confirm things are underway.

Mods? You know how the drug industry suppresses unfavorable trials and how this can be mathematically detected? If your deletions are for operational reasons, they are way too specific and giving the game away. Mix it up a bit. The bad guys can add up as well.

[Chronus]

The Australian Government has described the sat image as credible and that the object yet unidentified appears to bear signs of it being awash or semi submerged. Some weight must be attached to such a statement given the gravity of the situation as a whole. There is much speculation as to an object of this size, reported as 24m, remaining on or close to the surface after such a long lapse of time, in the event it may previously have formed part of the aircraft structure.

The following link details the materials and technology applied in the design and construction of the B777 and may give a usefull insight as to the likelihood of wreckage that may be discovered.

http://www.southampton.ac.uk/~jps7/Aircraft%20Design%20Resources/Structures/Boeing%20777%20materials.pdf

[Staggerwing]

Hunter 58,

Early in this blog, I made a post concerning radar tracking by naval vessels that may have been close to the flight path of the aircraft. I did not receive a reply from anyone at the time and maybe you could answer the question: would naval vessels be able to track the aircraft using primary returns and, if so, what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?

I was assuming that there would have been some naval vessels, from various countries, operating somewhere in the area believed to have been overflown by the aircraft.

[Pontius Navigator]

Could someone point me to the discussion about the last verbal communication being under the influence of hypoxia? Google and the PPRuNe search engines aren't finding the one I'm thinking of. Something about pilots doing sums in a chamber, the guy next to him in the chamber was continuing 'as normal' chatting and doing sums (which didn't add up) and 'Alright, goodnight' possibly being an automatic reflex?
Thank you.

PS, there were two of us talking about it. The 'as normal chatting' would have been as perceived by the subject. Trust me when I say they would have been talking scribble as well as writing it.

I was usually one of the first back on oxygen and saw some trying ineffectually to stop the doctor putting their mask back on. You see their pencil 'scribbling' but in reality just doing nothing.

Automatic reflexes no chance.

[ettore]

Common guys get a bit of perspective.

World car accident related deaths run at about 1,3 million per year.
World commercial aviation accident deaths at under 500 per year.


To get a meaningful comparaison from a statistical point of view, one should compare the number of casualties per leg on a trip (i.e. the number of travel occurrences), either by car or by plane, instead of compairing those means of transportation on a time frame or distance basis.

Sorry folks, I'm also getting old and pedantic. :p

[Hunter58]

Early in this blog, I made a post concerning radar tracking by naval vessels that may have been close to the flight path of the aircraft. I did not receive a reply from anyone at the time and maybe you could answer the question: would naval vessels be able to track the aircraft using primary returns and, if so, what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?

I was assuming that there would have been some naval vessels, from various countries, operating somewhere in the area believed to have been overflown by the aircraft.

Staggerwing

I absolutely don't know. But I am sure there are some people here who have experience with naval radar ops. However, the radar ist the same, the differences are in the analysis behind. Due to mountaineous terrain our assets were actually adapted navel equipment.

I am sure they could have tracked the aircraft, the problem is more how they could have identified it positively or communicated with someone about it without reveiling their identity.

[XB70_Valkyrie]

Just reported on UK BBC News, Inmarsat apparently gone public with the view that:
(a) they are surprised that the search continued in the S China Sea after last Wednesday, 8 days ago, when they sent the satellite data to Malaysia, as the pings clearly pointed to the two well-known arcs we've seen as the likely location of MAS370
(b) they can't understand why the concentration on two corridors following the two arcs because in their view the aircraft was at one end or the other, not somewhere along the arc, "according to the laws of physics", and most likely to be south as the northern route would have likely been picked up by radar as it crossed several countries.

Up until this point I'd been willing to give the search management the benefit of the doubt but this latest fiasco is pretty much proof that they're muppets.

One question I had was on knowing the turn was entered in the FMC.... was this deduced because the next waypoint was seen in ADS data received before shutdown? Has anything specific (lat/long) been divulged?

[Coagie]

PS, there were two of us talking about it. The 'as normal chatting' would have been as perceived by the subject. Trust me when I say they would have been talking scribble as well as writing it.I remember it was as if everyone was very drunk. Many even had a headache afterwards. I'd imagine any voice transmissions would be noticeably slurred once judgement was impaired, but maybe it depends on the person.

[bille1319]

Does any Aircraft radio station maintain a watch on any of the international HF distress frequencies anymore or has this been overlooked that they work very well especially during this high sun spot cycle? Perhaps VHF was disabled but no one was listening on HF for her.

[GlobalNav]

@Staggerwing you asked "what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?"

Not sure of ship dimensions, so based on a guess, radar antenna 20m high, the line of sight range to a target at FL200 would be about 184 NM. An antenna 10m higher only adds 2 NM.

[fg32]

awblain
Even so, Ettore… if the average person takes ten car journeys a day and ten per year by air… or even doing it in passenger-km covered, air is still doing well, since there's a factor of 2500 in terms of raw casualties.

It's a personal choice, assessing risk, But I'm with Ettore…per journey.

Mind you - essential travel, and voluntary travel, might logically be assessed differently.
"Shall I go at all ?" is different from "I must, but how ?".

Getting slightly quieter, is it? :hmm:

[NigelOnDraft]

Up until this point I'd been willing to give the search management the benefit of the doubt but this latest fiasco is pretty much proof that they're muppetsSorry, but I disagree. The whole lesson of eventually finding AF447 was the "Bayesian" theory.

Each piece of information is evaluated, given a probability and move on from there. As with AF447, the "LKP" is often accurate, even if other info suggests otherwise. The Inmarsat info would have been evaluated, given a probability, but not straight away, enough weight to call off the other search areas.

There is also some practicality. The assets available cannot all be switched to/from areas at will.

I think it is also clear the search teams / location have been a day or 2 ahead of what we are told the "latest" info is i.e. as info comes in, someone is evaluating and actioning it. Just not the chap in front of the cameras ;)

Edit: reading a bit more on it, you concentrate on where you are most likely to find it. That is not the same as where you think it most likely is! The original search was in shallow water, and a small area... so if it was there, the P of finding it is much higher than the deep / enormous South Indian Ocean. The former search has now stopped since not only is the P higher it is in the Indian Ocean (or the N), but since the South China Sea has been so extensively searched, the P of now finding it there goes down. Or something like that!

[atr-drivr]

Did any facility SECAL the plane at any time?

[500N]

Article on the buoys being dropped from the C-130 with photos
from the C-130.

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: RAAF narrows search field as hunt for MH370 continues (http://www.theage.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-raaf-narrows-search-field-as-hunt-for-mh370-continues-20140321-hvkym.html)

[Chronus]

Staggerwing`s question on radar.

Shipborne military naval radar is horizon limited and relies on sat link for enhanced range and altitude. Airborne radar, such as EWAC is the current fashion. The actual numbers are not on general display for obvious reasons, so there is not much more than just the usual theoretical data around. The only useful tool in the area is the Ozzie Jindalee Operational Radar Network, multistatic radar using OTH-B (OVER THE HORIZON ) with an official range of 1900miles.
Here is its coverage, near enough to the current search area.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4d/JORS.svg/300px-JORS.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:JORS.svg)

[RatherBeFlying]

There's another 4-5 hours before daylight in the search area when an a/c crew can get eyes and cameras on the objects the satellite picked up.

Then we will have a better idea whether one or more of the objects came from MH370 or a maritime casualty that's been circumnavigating Antarctica since???

While it's pretty barren North of the Himalayas, before that there's a bunch of high steep heavily vegetated slopes in extremely difficult terrain that could conceal a CFIT.

If it hit the side of a gorge, the debris could possibly fall into a high volume river leaving precious little visible.

Even if the flotsam does not come from MH370, there's still nothing in the public domain to put one ping arc over the other.

[ACLS65]

To answer staggerwing at least for USN assets they would typically have some combination of these air search RADARs depending on the type of ship.

Some common examples:

AN/SPY-1 AN/SPY-1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/SPY-1)

AN/SPS-48 AN/SPS-48 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/SPS-48)

AN/SPS-49 AN/SPS-49 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/SPS-49)


250nm+ range in general with the SPY-1 and SPS-48 being phased array height finding RADARs.


I have a piece of SPS-49 antenna that I had to cut off with a hacksaw sitting on my desk.

[James7]

XB70 One question I had was on knowing the turn was entered in the FMC.... was this deduced because the next waypoint was seen in ADS data received before shutdown? Has anything specific (lat/long) been divulged?

It would be also interesting to know how ACARS transmitted the information.
If it was VHF, HF or Sat. Maybe the crew forgot at the time to switch off the HF if this was the route out. All 3 can be easily disabled.

If 'they' were going to steal the aircraft then they would most certainly shut it down Before doing anything unusual.

Was it in the secondary in case of emergency and the secondary was activated.

It would seem most odd that highly experienced operators would overlook such obvious detail to put the aircraft into 'stealth' mode.

[Pontius Navigator]

Hunter 58,

Early in this blog, I made a post concerning radar tracking by naval vessels that may have been close to the flight path of the aircraft. I did not receive a reply from anyone at the time and maybe you could answer the question: would naval vessels be able to track the aircraft using primary returns and, if so, what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?

I was assuming that there would have been some naval vessels, from various countries, operating somewhere in the area believed to have been overflown by the aircraft.

Last bit first, probably not.

Then ability to track depends on the type of ship as air search is a specialised role usually for destroyers, cruisers and carriers. Smaller vessels, such as patrol boats and up to frigates will not usually have an air search capability and would rely on data links for a recognised air picture. The RAP would only be available if they were in a link with other air defence units, ships and AWACS. It that part of the world, unless on operations or exercises, it would be unlikely that there would have been any real chance of ships being present and detecting 370.

Other than units on operations, many navies operate on a day running basis and certainly expect a weekend in port.

[Coagie]

I wrote about this earlier in the forum, but now that it seems there's a good chance there's a legitimate search area, I want to reiterate that submarines and P-3's are set up for listening for submarines, ships, explosions, Say Again Machines, etc, but not optimized for the ultra-sonic 37.5 khz audible ping sent by black boxes. Maybe there are some submariners or P-3 crew that can comment about this. I've read somewhere that an 8 khz ping, would be optimum for typical submarine or P-3 equipment to hear. I know it's redundant to call a 37.5khz ping "ultra-sonic" but I want to emphasize that point. You can't hear it without a dog or down converter. If the equipment has the range, you can look at it on a spectrum analyzer. Just like radio equipment is more sensitive when tuned to a specific RF frequency, listening equipment is much more sensitive when tuned for a specific audio frequency, instead of listening to a broad range of frequencies. This may have been why AF447's ping wasn't heard or not heard consistently enough.

[albatross]

http://www.c-130hercules.net/gallery/files//1/0/5/3572.jpg

Sometimes the aircraft stays together and floats for days.

[ATC Watcher]

Chronus, very interesting map. Did not know it was available as normally OTH radar technology actual operational range is not public domain.

As there is not really much ( if any) traffic flying southbound in this area on that route, it should be relatively easy to look at the tapes to see if an echo existed at the time.
Or the aircraft ( if indeed there was one there ) flew exactly outside of the operational range, reimforcing the idea that this route was not chosen at random .

[Hunter58]

I have a general problem with the southern search area.

Altough we have no confirmed track across the peninsula we do have received information regarding the general direction of the aircraft. If was reported to have crossed the peninsula on a southwesterly direction to then turn to a northwesterly direction.

The above could be explained in a catastrophic event with a direct-to entry followed by a heading mode.

Hovever, to then go to a southern route you would require some human intervention. And such intervention comes very late for 'cabin survivors'.

As a consequence the southern route is not possible in the event of a catastrophic failure.

[MrDK]

@FE Hoppy
CVR 2 hours
FDR 25 hours

It is amazing that a computer in a home you may buy for your teenage kid can outperform the storage available in a modern airliner by more than a 1000 factor.
2 hours of voice recording on a plane that may be designed to fly 16-18 hours?
In case of MH370 which may have flown for up to 8 hours and if so the voice recordings in the first two hours maybe a lot more important than the last two hours. Especially if (at least) one pilot was incapacitated for whatever reason.

The best I can gather is that the audio quality of the CVR used today is 31 kbps.
A 1TB SSD recording at 64 kbps will can store more than 72000 hours (1 channel)at twice the quality.
I believe current CVR's use either 3 or 4 channels, but even using 10 channels (some in the cabin as well), 7200 hours equals 300 days.
Based on the assumption that a CVR and a FDR use the same storage media with the FDR yielding ~12 times duration of a 4-channel CVR a 1 TB SSD would store 9000 days of data (the life of most airframes) ... all for under $1,000 (excluding DAQ which would likely be the same as current recorders).
Using the same storage media (1TB SSD), the use of 10 video cameras in full motion mode would record 40 hours of video.

Time to use current technology, methinks

[awblain]

Hunter, Inmarsat puts it on the red arc at 0811. That's not consistent with traveling in a straight line SW over Malaya. Either the SW report over Malaya is wrong, or extra turns were required.

In either case, I'd bet on Inmarsat being right, and the zigzagging over the NE Indian Ocean being a bit suspect.

[Ian W]

PS, there were two of us talking about it. The 'as normal chatting' would have been as perceived by the subject. Trust me when I say they would have been talking scribble as well as writing it.

I was usually one of the first back on oxygen and saw some trying ineffectually to stop the doctor putting their mask back on. You see their pencil 'scribbling' but in reality just doing nothing.

Automatic reflexes no chance.

That was me in the decompression chamber with a compatriot who appeared to be unaffected until we checked - remember this was just over 30 seconds - he was writing perfectly neat garbage and was not 'responsive' to the instructor who got his O2 back on rapidly. I cannot see anyone at 35,000 with hypoxia doing/saying anything sensible after a few seconds.

It would be most instructive to know what the controller said to the crew, a chatty non-standard handoff could get an "alright goodnight" in response.

[Coagie]

Post 6725 Ole Ole: More thoughts on ping accuracy
- Inmarsat-C uses TDM (time division multiplexing).
- Symbol duration within the time slots is 8.64s/10368 symbols = 833 microseconds per symbol

Transmissions in adjacent time slots have to arrive at the receiver (satellite) within the accuracy of one symbol. => Propagation delay has to be known with min. accuracy of 833 microseconds which is corresponds to 250km.

That is imho the upper error margin for the ping accuracy. For reasons given earlier I'm still optimistic accuracy is far better.

The arcs with greater radius have more favorable geometry thus accuracy is better further out. Think cutting a tomato (earth) into slices. Put the tomato to the far left of the cutting board and imagine the satellite to the far right. Each cut through the tomato marks points that are equidistant to the satellite. The skin of the slices is the set of points on the surface that lie within the error margin. The outer slices (those closer to the satellite) have more skin, i.e bigger error.

Stand to be corrected.
No correction here, but compliments on the great tomato teaching analogy. CDMA would be better for the satellite to use than time division, since propagation delay does not affect it as much, since the bits know how to put themselves back in order at their destination, since they are encoded in a Walsh Code. Of course, it's not easy to upgrade a satellite as well as the many customer transceivers, unless they have an up-loadable modulation format. So it's probably just academic. Maybe the next set of satellites and customer equipment will have CDMA modulation. Of course, the very nature of time division multiplexing may make it easier to use the shift in the spaces between the bits, as the customer moves, for tracking purposes.

[XB70_Valkyrie]

Sorry, but I disagree. The whole lesson of eventually finding AF447 was the "Bayesian" theory.

Each piece of information is evaluated, given a probability and move on from there. As with AF447, the "LKP" is often accurate, even if other info suggests otherwise. The Inmarsat info would have been evaluated, given a probability, but not straight away, enough weight to call off the other search areas.

There is also some practicality. The assets available cannot all be switched to/from areas at will.

I think it is also clear the search teams / location have been a day or 2 ahead of what we are told the "latest" info is i.e. as info comes in, someone is evaluating and actioning it. Just not the chap in front of the cameras

Edit: reading a bit more on it, you concentrate on where you are most likely to find it. That is not the same as where you think it most likely is! The original search was in shallow water, and a small area... so if it was there, the P of finding it is much higher than the deep / enormous South Indian Ocean. The former search has now stopped since not only is the P higher it is in the Indian Ocean (or the N), but since the South China Sea has been so extensively searched, the P of now finding it there goes down. Or something like that!

My point is the second one, why are they searching at some calculated end of the arc rather than along it. It isn't known what speed the aircraft was flying at. They've highlighted a search area for Australia that is at the end of the aircrafts fuel range, at some assumed cruise speed. All they know is that the transmissions were received somewhere in the arc (north or south) during those time periods. It could have been circling a single point and remained in the width of the arc and the width is not a line, it has a width due to the lack of precision of the sat data. Remember the arc is NOT a track of the aircraft. The entire arc should be given the same POD until proven otherwise.

[Hunter58]

Hunter, Inmarsat puts it on the red arc at 0811. That's not consistent with traveling in a straight line SW over Malaya. Either the SW report over Malaya is wrong, or extra turns were required.

In either case, I'd bet on Inmarsat being right, and the zigzagging over the NE Indian Ocean being a bit suspect.

Now I am more than confused.

The reports are that the left turn brought the aircraft in an SW direction before turning NW after crossing the peninsula. The zigzag was never reported and is contrary to indonesian reports. None of this says anything about the 0811 ping.

My point is that the northern location would be consistant in an catastrophy assumption. But it is not possible in a southern location as someone would have to get the aircraft out of the NW heading.

[Dont Hang Up]

It is amazing that a computer in a home you may buy for your teenage kid can outperform the storage available in a modern airliner by more than a 1000 factor.
2 hours of voice recording on a plane that may be designed to fly 16-18 hours?
In case of MH370 which may have flown for up to 8 hours and if so the voice recordings in the first two hours maybe a lot more important than the last two hours. Especially if (at least) one pilot was incapacitated for whatever reason.

The best I can gather is that the audio quality of the CVR used today is 31 kbps.
A 1TB SSD recording at 64 kbps will can store more than 72000 hours (1 channel)at twice the quality.
I believe current CVR's use either 3 or 4 channels, but even using 10 channels (some in the cabin as well), 7200 hours equals 300 days.
Based on the assumption that a CVR and a FDR use the same storage media with the FDR yielding ~12 times duration of a 4-channel CVR a 1 TB SSD would store 9000 days of data (the life of most airframes) ... all for under $1,000 (excluding DAQ which would likely be the same as current recorders).
Using the same storage media (1TB SSD), the use of 10 video cameras in full motion mode would record 40 hours of video.

Time to use current technology, methinks

State of the art technology does not have to be safe to be installed in your teenage kids' PC. Failures are an inconvenience not a disaster.

Keeping safety critical systems safe means they may run a generation (or two) behind the latest capabilities. That is not a bad thing.

Let's face it, using "current technology" batteries in aircraft has created a few issues recently.

[mm43]

Back in one of the earlier AF447 threads (http://www.pprune.org/5683946-post953.html), auv-ee explained in detail the detection range of the 37.5kHz ULB pinger.

The maximum detection range is 2 - 3km, and in rather calm sea conditions. Less than 1800 meters will provide a 90% or better chance of detection. All this is described in detail by one who knows and has the experience to go with it.

[awblain]

Hunter,

While it could be anywhere on the red arc at 0811, Inmarsat sensibly curtailed the arc at a spot in the Indian Ocean that is the number of flight hours multiplied by a reasonable speed from the South China Sea. They presumably have several earlier hours of angle measurements too, which would be consistent with that.

It seems unlikely to me that the Australian government would make such a big deal about going to look in that oceanic box unless they had some good information that looking in that box was likely to pay off.

The biggest problem with the northern route is that someone somewhere should have seen it co,ing, whereas going south there's nothing to bump into.

The earlier Inmarsat ping angles would show whether or not a steady straight flight into the void was consistent with them. I trust the heavy Australian search is based on sound information, although their released pictures of the "ocean objects" are very whitecap-looking to me. The radar shenanigans and turns over SE Asia all seems to be pretty random.

[deptrai]

Pressure masks for all cabin crew and a means for them to enter flight deck in an emergency (maybe several cabin crew pass keys...

Methinks you are offering a solution in search for a problem, just like numerous others here. As for flight deck access, for obvious reasons, no one is going to discuss this in public. Big surprise there. Yawn.

[DespairingTraveller]

@Hunter58

Altough we have no confirmed track across the peninsula we do have received information regarding the general direction of the aircraft. If was reported to have crossed the peninsula on a southwesterly direction to then turn to a northwesterly directionThe piece of the jigsaw that I think you are missing is that at the press conference a day or so back, the Malaysian official equivocated spectacularly when asked to confirm that MH370 had in fact made the NW turn and passed through or toward the subsequent waypoints. He didn't actually deny it, but was as near as possible to doing so.


So, it appears that all that is confirmed is that the aircraft crossed the peninsular heading SW, and all the conclusions and inferences drawn from the implication of deliberate human action in turning the aircraft, except for the initial turn back toward peninsular Malaysia, are, in fact, baseless.

[cynar]

@richardgb

Can I ask a fairly basic question.

Is there anywhere an unimpeachable peer reviewed and generally acknowledged statement of the known facts as opposed to theories?

For instance do we know with any degree of certainty whether the various statements about:

changes in altitude,
following pre-programmed way points
published zig zag tracks
fuel load on departure
whether the last verbal communication was before or after the initial divergence from the flight plan
satellite ping data and the consequent assumptions about the two arcs of likely location
radar or lack of radar returns
...and several others
are known to be true with any high degree of certainty?

Is international law / convention involved here and if so which is the authority that is charged with bringing all this data together. Is it in fact the Malaysian government/Aviation authority as appears to be the case judging by what we see on the television?


changes in altitude -- main source was the big Times story (35K --> 42K -->23K), seems to be extrapolated from Malaysian primary radar, and has been critiqued as not reliable. second source was Straits Times article about plane flying low at 5K feet to avoid radar. This was echo-chambered by many news outlets. If you look at the original story, the reporter only invited some Malaysian military guys to speculate, then wrote the story with the hypothetical as a fact. not reliable.

UPDATE: 3/23, CNN goes nuts with *their* altitude scoop, which is that, extrapolated from Malaysian primary radar, the flight turned back and dropped to 12,000 feet between 1:19 and 2:40 (speed and timing of drop not specified). This, imo, is simply another version of the altitude-change-calculated-from-primary-radar story, and not new news. Seems to depend on which analyst at which remove from the investigation is leaking. Of most interest here is the "2:40" time. 2:40 was a time we saw in the very first news stories, but then the Malaysians consistently said the flight dropped off their primary radar at 2:15. So what, exactly, correlates to 2:40, and why is that time making a resurgence?

following pre-programmed way points (same as zig zag tracks) Again, a big NY Times headline. All subsequent reporting and statements from the Malaysian pressers have only made this more confusing. If there is any hard data that a new flight plan was entered in the cockpit computer, it has never been directly stated or confirmed. Instead, experts seem to be extrapolating from the primary radar track, and also assuming the new flight plan was transmitted in the 1:07 ACARS burst. But no source has verified that speculation, even in news articles I've read that claim that happened.

UPDATE 3/23, Malaysian Ministry of Transportation confirms "The last ACARS transmission, sent at 1.07am, showed nothing unusual. The 1.07am transmission showed a normal routing all the way to Beijing."

fuel load on departure Normal fuel load, enough to get to Beijing with an hour to spare. Yes, reliable and verified directly in Malaysian presser. This is a fact they stated clearly and proactively and did not waffle on. I trust this as fact.

Per Bloomberg:
"The Boeing 777 was carrying 49.1 metric tons (54.1 tons) of fuel when it departed Kuala Lumpur, for a total takeoff weight of 223.5 tons, according to Subang Jaya-based Malaysian Air."

whether the last verbal communication was before or after the initial divergence from the flight plan At least in the U.S. the media went to town saying it was after, and taking this as proof of pilot deliberation. Unfortunately, at the following day's presser, the Malaysians said reports were inaccurate, but declined to provide a timeline of these events, and have deflected all lines of questioning about that critical series of events by saying their main priority is to find the plane. Upshot: we don't know. The investigators surely do, but are they leaking, and to which reporters?

satellite ping data and the consequent assumptions about the two arcs of likely location Satellite ping data is very solid fact. Data has been independently analyzed by NTSB and British Accident Board, who came to identical conclusions about the probability arcs. Further, the Australian SAR head in his presser said that they are leveraging ALL of the pings (not just the final one) in creating a probable flight path. That plus wind, current, fuel, speed, and other calculations narrowed down the southern search area. imo you'd need to be a major conspiracy theorist to believe everyone is colluding on a fake ping narrative.

radar or lack of radar returns Fact is secondary radar handoff from Malaysia was 1:19, and transponder data ceased at 1:21. Malaysian military primary radar tracked the plane (as a blip) until 2:15 when it went out of range back toward the west. They did this not in real time, but upon reviewing a recording. As for Vietnamese civilian radar, there was a report that they alerted the malaysians that the plane had turned back, but when they noticed this or when they alerted is not clear. The Thais came forward only a couple of days ago to say their primary radar had also tracked the plane west. India says they didn't see it. China says they didn't see it. Other countries are cooperating in examining their radar, but that will not be made public, per the pressers, to ensure their national security capabilities.

Law is the country the plane crashed in leads the investigation. The plane manufacturer and airline send consultants. In international waters I think there''s an international investigation protocol. The Malaysians headed this so far because it's their airline, the plane took off from their country, and nobody knew if it crashed or where.

P.S. If subsequent posts take issue with any of the above, I'm happy to edit it. I'm really keen on "what exactly is fact" versus inference, speculation, or spin

[Hunter58]

awblain

I am sure that neither India, Nepal or China would like to admit that they missed an airliner flying a constant heading with their 'elaborate' air defence radars. However, just because they could be loosing face does not give any reason for not looking. Until now in this whole story everytime the media attention was on one side it proved to be the other.

If inmarsat is so confident on their findings, why do we not have a public analysis of their conclusions?


Despairing Traveller

and which part was the official maneuvering about? The general direction or the zig zagging which they never confirmed in the first place? There is quite a difference in the two.

[Coagie]

mm43: Back in one of the earlier AF447 threads (http://www.pprune.org/5683946-post953.html), auv-ee explained in detail the detection range of the 37.5kHz ULB pinger. The maximum detection range is 2 - 3km, and in rather calm sea conditions. Less than 1800 meters will provide a 90% or better chance of detection. All this is described in detail by one who knows and has the experience to go with it. That's assuming the people listening for it have the proper or properly tuned equipment! BTW: Thanks for the link. He definetly explains the transmission end of it. I'm just not sure all the people listening for the 37.5 khz ping of MH370's black box locator beacon, have the optimum equipment to hear it anywhere near the maximum specified distance!

[kjblair]

Although the only data point that appears to be associated with an individual handshake between the Inmarsat satellite and MH370 is distance (or angle to the satellite), that information is quite useful. From most news accounts, Inmarsat had data for the entire time MH370 had power, with each successive handshake approximately 60 minutes apart. If that is the case, they should have one at about the same time the plane’s transponder stopped working (approximately 43°). From that point, you would have very different data depending upon the path the airplane took.

For example, if the plane did a 180 and turned around, you would have the following data:

2:11 44°
3:11 45°
4:11 46°
5:11 46°
6:11 45°
7:11 43°
8:11 40°

However, if the plane turned westward and crossed the peninsula and skirted the Northern part of Sumatra before turning South, you’d have something like the following:

2:11 49°
3:11 54°
4:11 54°
5:11 52°
6:11 49°
7:11 45°
8:11 40°

Obviously, I don’t have the actual data and the numbers are probably off a bit but you get the general idea. Knowing the satellite data will allow you to narrow down the potential flight paths. I’m sure that is what the NTSB has used (along with a lot of other data) to generate the paths shown on the maps the Australians are using to show the search areas.

[D.S.]

Just to add to Hunter and Pontius Navigator's post directed toward Arearadar's reply that included

I read that a/c disappeared from radar.It is not as if we have only 1 Country involved here, either.

You have Thailand on the other side of the border showing apparently the same flight path across the peninsula. They indicate they never lost sight of the re-appearing plane (well, at least for any considerable amount of time) and say it never entered their space, basically skirting the border.

That is 3 countries (Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand) combined showing the plane going dark (all 3), turning around (at least 2 - Vietnam and Malaysia), and showing back up off the Peninsulas coast (suspected 2, but at least Thailand) with a total time frame of that series of events at about 10 minutes. Then 2 of them are able to put together a path across said peninsula starting at that time; 2 identified paths that apparently line up with each other. Meanwhile no plane continued on the flight path MH370 was on into Vietnam territory and no plane crashed into the Gulf.

I myself am fairly confident they would be able to figure out with a very high degree of certainty that it is probably not some other 'unidentified' stolen or mysterious similarly sized plane flying around the same areas at the same times ...well, short of them having WashOut and Tug at the helm, I guess.

[Lonewolf_50]

coagie, the nice thing about the deep ocean, well over a thousand fathoms, (my best guess at how deep this beacon would be based on the area being searched) is that much of the surface noise would be attenuated (bends back up toward the surface) and thus raises the potential Figure of Merit for passive detection. That said, getting the sensor deep enough to have a chance at picking up a comparitively high frequency beacon poses some problems.
mm43 has covered the rest.

[mm43]

That's assuming the people listening for it have the proper or properly tuned equipment!The USN has Towed Pinger Locater equipment containerized and ready to be flown to wherever required. Locating and chartering a suitable vessel to deploy the gear from will be the inital task.

[DespairingTraveller]

@Hunter58


Both. All he seemed comfortable with was the initial return direction. Once he was pressed on any subsequent turns, he wasn't at all happy to be drawn. I'm sorry, I forget the exact words.


But I was left with the very firm impression that there wasn't solid supporting evidence for later changes of direction, but that he didn't want to admit that outright.

[D.S.]

threl (http://www.pprune.org/members/216111-threl) said,

Does anybody have any theories as to where this data could be from? It was not mentioned by the TM today IIRC.

Could be any number of "secrete" cites run by who knows who

...could also just be Indonesia or Singapore not wanting to publicly tell everyone how far off their coast they can pick stuff up

[Coagie]

Hunter58: If inmarsat is so confident on their findings, why do we not have a public analysis of their conclusions? It's possible, that whoever is saying that they are using Inmarsat to narrow down the search area, is just using the feasibility of doing so, to cover for the real way they narrowed it down with whatever secret tracking method or equipment, but, it's only a possibility. I'd think that if such devices or methods were available to use in this case and worthy of secrecy, they'd have pinpointed the aircraft with them, but who knows?

[SandyYoung]

The 'maximum detection range is 2 - 3km' which is fairly useless. As became clear in the Air France search what's required is a massive pulse to give a sensible range, delivered at far longer intervals to allow battery life to be extended.

One huge 'ping' every hour, for example, would have had this plane located by now, assuming it's under water.

Fast pulses, in an environment where everything moves slowly, are a waste.

[kiwiflyguy]

From a former flight service manager / aviation human factors student and enthusiast:
(operated B733, 734, 738, 762, 763, 743, 744; A320, 332, 333 over the years)

I have been following this thread since inception. Very enlightening - thank you for all your insight, theories and discussion. :ok:

Lots of current talk about CVR duration - if some of the speculated theories are correct (decompression / hijack / smoke event et al.) I presume that in this technological age there will be recordings of this on camera-phones (and potentially even "water resistant" cameras) from within the cabin during any period of passenger consciousness.

In my many years of flying it has become apparent that there has been a recent surge of "pocket paparazzi" - everyone is eager to record any unusual events on mobile devices. Recent recordings / photos include evacuations (LOT, US Airways) and even relatively minor turbulence events etc.

In high-impact accidents it is still possible to find casualties intact - possibly with phones in pockets - I am intrigued to see if any media devices are recovered. Collaboratively with FDR / CVR information this may paint a very interesting (or horrifying) picture of the cabin environment prior to impact. Perhaps stored data may yield clues in this eventual investigation, regardless of FDR / CVR recovery or analysis.

I am unsure of current protocols about eventual release of this potential media device information - does it "belong" to the estate of the deceased or can it be released for "public consumption" via official channels? Does anyone have any insight?

[Squawk_ident]

Agree that two hours of recording sounds ridiculous nowadays. But with a good software you can unerase or undelete what has been rewritten on a disk. Let's hope that, at least, the recorders are found.

Thai have seen the MAS370 on their radar and didn't care because not their competence area. Vietnamese have seen the aircraft turning back, warned the Malaysian that said thank you because they are well educated. Indonesian have seen nothing or may be have seen something, but it would be a defence top secret because they are not supposed to. Singapore is mute. Malaysian discover that the MAS370 fled across their territory some days after, making some nice turns while Malaysian Air Farce was sleeping. What else?

[Hunter58]

@DespairingTraveller

Maybe said official also remembers the Masaysian Air Force going quiet on the subject althoigh they had briefed the public about exatly said track. So in order not to get whacked by the PM he backtracked as much as possible.

I believe the Air Force was right in the first place as even their back pedaling was nicely put refering to an earlier press conference.

[awblain]

If you have a big sound receiver you can hear things that are a long way down.

There were rumors that the French submarine Emeraude that went looking for AF447 couldn't really exploit its listening equipment to the full because while it was large, it didn't have much sensitivity at such high frequencies.

Do the Australian navy have ships with suitable big sonar to hand? They seem to Leeuwin-class survey vessel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeuwin_class_survey_vessel) but on the wrong side of the country. Looks like there should be room for some extra stuff onboard if the US has a special 40+ KHz sensitive device.

[Lonewolf_50]

One huge 'ping' every hour, for example, would have had this plane located by now, assuming it's under water.
Not quite. One first has to get within a reasonable range of the source, and they have not yet found the debris they think is from the plane, nor yet had a shot at working from that location (presuming they find it) back along the best calculated wind/surface current movement track to a reasonable first search datum. Once that's sorted, then a sensor can be lowered into the ocean to try and hear the ping.

Let's not put the cart before the horse. :8

[Vinnie Boombatz]

The AF447 report lists the effective range of the ULBs on the two recorders as 2 to 3 km. That's slant range, so if the water is deep, the hydrophones need to be lowered substantially, and of course good bathymetry (i.e., and underwater terrain map) helps a lot.

Main page for AF447 data:

FLIGHT AF 447 (http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flight.af.447/flight.af.447.php)

Sea Search Operations (31 MB):

http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol.af.447/sea.search.ops.af447.05.11.2012.en.pdf

"Both of the flight recorders of the aeroplane were equipped with a ULB designed to locate it when immersed. The duration of ULB transmission is at least thirty days from immersion(10). . . . As a rule, acoustic searches should always be preferred during the transmission time of the beacons. They are more effective than searches using sonar, magnetometers or video cameras.

The maximum range(11) of these beacons is of the order of 2,000 to 3,000 m. However, in the search area the average depth was 3,000 m. It was therefore necessary to bring the hydrophones(12) closer to the source of transmission, by towing specialized equipment nearer to the seabed.

(10)The regulatory minimum is 30 days, but the ULB manufacturer stated that the transmission duration was in reality of the order of forty days. This figure is determined by the capacity of the internal battery.
(11)It may be necessary to take into account the propagation of acoustic waves in a liquid medium, which depends on numerous interconnected parameters, such as the salinity and temperature of the water. When an acoustic wave is propagated in the sea, it is subject to refractions, which generate multiple trajectories. It can also happen that the acoustic waves are deflected in such a way that there is an area of shadow that is never reached by these waves.
(12)Undersea microphone. "

"The TPL20 and TPL40 systems are deep-towed devices belonging to the family of the “Towed Pinger Locators” manufactured by Phoenix International for the US Navy. The United States government made both the equipment and the associated operators freely available to the French government (17 people distributed on the two ships). In June 2009 the TPLs were the only systems capable of carrying out passive acoustic searches over large areas at significant depths.

The two TPLs are towed devices each equipped with an omni-directional hydrophone which can operate down to depths of six thousand metres with towing speeds ranging from 1.5 to 5 knots. They can be installed on all types of appropriate vessels capable of carrying a load weighing around 25 tonnes. A mapping software application uses GPS positioning information to follow the ship’s movements and the position of the towed device. The latter is equipped with a pressure sensor that permanently transmits the immersed device’s approximate depth of submersion. Management of the deployed cable length and ship towing speed is used to place the acoustic sensor at the required average submersion depth For example, an average submersion depth of 2,300 m for the TPL is achieved by deploying approximately 6,000 m of cable at a towing speed of 3 knots."

Much more interesting information in the report, such as description of an acoustic repeater that downconverts the 37.5 kHz signal to 12 kHz to be compatible with other sensors onboard a ship.

On using the French nuclear-powered submarine Emeraude:

"The Emeraude is equipped with numerous acoustic sensors including a sonar interceptor which was used during the search operations. This equipment was not originally designed to detect and localise ULB type acoustic beacons, but thanks to the optimisation of its settings and the use of additional computer software from 30 June 2009, its signal detection capabilities were enhanced."

"Deployment of the nuclear-powered submarine improved the search system and provided an interesting mobile device in terms of the surface areas covered (its average speed in the zone , between 6 and 10 kt, was higher than that of the other resources deployed). However its use proved difficult, given the safety constraints resulting from its integration in the search operations.
The presence of the nuclear-powered submarine meant that a vast safety zone had to be put in place around its patrol area in order to avoid any collision between the various pieces of towed equipment and the submarine. This permanent preoccupation with safety required delicate management of the undersea zones."

Interim report on search for ULBs:

Final report (http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flight.af.447/rapport.final.en.php)

"The first search phase aimed at detecting and locating the acoustic signals transmitted by the Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB) fitted on each flight recorder(8). As a priority, the aeroplane’s planned flight path as well as the greatest possible area inside the 40 NM circle was swept by two Towed Pinger Locators (TPL)(9).
No signal from either of the beacons was detected by the sensors deployed in the area despite TPL passing by, on two occasions, not far from the debris field, on 22 and 23 June 2009.

(8)There were two beacons on the A-330, one attached to the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and the other to the flight data recorder (FDR).

(9)The two US Navy TPL’s are the only two towed hydrophones in the world able to operate to a depth of up to 6,000 metres."

Report on tests of similar ULBs:

http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol.af.447/bea.dga.ulb.measurement.09.2011.pdf

"Masked areas are present on the beacon’s vertical axis as well as the horizontal axis, leaving the possibility of significant of "shadow" zones. . . .
- It should be remembered that each time the level falls 6 dB(micro)Pa, the signal’s theoretical range falls by half. For beacons attached in this way on a flight recorder this can be very noticeably reduced, depending on orientation, in relation to the theoretical range of a single beacon."

[GarageYears]

The CVR can't be "undeleted" or recovered because the data overwrites the previous in a circular buffer sort of arrangement. You can only recover data from a hard drive if it hasn't been written over with a new file.
:8

[RatherBeFlying]

We see a whole bunch of delay in hearing from the various militaries.

It sure looks to me that any primary echo data shared with the SAR effort has come from examining recordings.

The inference is that MH370 echoes did not get attention from anybody on a scope/display in Malaysia, Thailand, India, or Indonesia.

Were the folks watching scopes in Burma, China, Pakistan, Kazakhstan more on the ball?

[Porker1]

@Alchad

Earlier Bloomberg article quote:

"The Boeing 777 was carrying 49.1 metric tons (54.1 tons) of fuel when it departed Kuala Lumpur, for a total takeoff weight of 223.5 tons, according to Subang Jaya-based Malaysian Air."

Whether that is "normal" for the planned flight path I leave to the pilots who know these machines.....

[500N]

Weather will improve over the weekend in the search area which is good.
Currently low cloud and rain.

[500N]

This is a video from the RAAF Orion that shows a bit of footage
of the sea.

Missing plane: on board the search flight (http://media.theage.com.au/news/national-news/missing-plane-on-board-the-search-flight-5278805.html)

[glendalegoon]

DOES ANYONE KNOW if malyasian air has a pilot's union? IFALP?

wondering why we haven't heard from them if they have one?

[fg32]

glendalegoon
DOES ANYONE KNOW if malyasian air has a pilot's union? IFALP?

wondering why we haven't heard from them if they have one?
I THINK I heard the minister in a Malaysian press conference say that all the cabin crew were in a union, but not the pilots. Only just audible, and a rapidly swallowed aside.

Incidentally, I wish they had a radio mike to pass to questioners, or the chair would précis questions to the microphone. So annoying, and gives such a bad impression, to hear, again and again, the answer but not the question.

[Neogen]

Yesterday the Transport Minister mentioned that they had received further radar data but that he was not at liberty to discuss it any further. IIRC a journo asked a question about that point, and the Transport Minister just repeated himself, and then added that 'also you have to understand that this data can be sensitive to the countries involved'. Does anybody have any theories as to where this data could be from? It was not mentioned by the TM today IIRC.

Most likely this data was shared by India. They dont want to reveal capabilities of their Andaman radar. If you notice India was quick to suspend the search in Bay of Bengal on 15th March, once they reviewed their radar tapes. Inside info from Indian Naval command is that India provided significant amount of radar data to Malaysia on 15th or 16th March. The other country could be Australia.

These countries do want to be anonymous due to several known reasons.

[glendalegoon]

Malaysia Airlines Pilots' Association, MAPA (http://www.mapa.my/)