Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Passagiata]

Anti Ski On: "On a side note, I have twice had my credit card 'cloned' in that region, and both times the card was used to purchase flights."

Last year when my credit card number was stolen, it was used to pay for two flights between western Europe and the Caucasus. I raised it with my credit card company, who were uninterested. I decided to the info to the airline myself, and the information they sent me included the fact that the passengers had apparent Middle Eastern names. No idea whether there was anything sinister involved, but it seemed wise to at least pass on the info to the airline in the apparent absence of any other channel. It did make me wonder whether surveillance & intelligence can possibly keep up, though.

[beamender99]

Can you post a link to that story. I don't see it on Al Jazeera. I had a look and could not find anything.


I saw it on the rolling text not on a news item.

[truthinbeer]

Quote:
On three occasions I've filmed the detonation of 500ml of home made liquid terror in an airframe, these were demonstrations on unpressurized hulls which were not traveling at 500mph.

Was a "liquid ban" in force at the first security point on this flight? No liquid ban or not enforced as far as I am aware. Wife and I transited KL a few months back. I was surprised when she was able to board unchallenged with a 750ml bottle of water.

[smiling monkey]

Basic question.
Do jetliners communicate much with each other during long flights or is the protocol to remain silent unless reporting unusual conditions?
It seems that MH370 had plenty of company in the area, so wondering if there is any insight to be gathered from communications with these other flights.

Airlines usually have a company frequency that we use to communicate with flight operations and with other pilots in range. There's also a common 'unoffical' frequency that pilots use to contact other pilots from different companies. Sometimes, operational information is shared, like weather ahead if it's known that another aircraft is in the vicinity of where you're heading.

After the MH370 lost contact, there were other MAS aircraft in the air trying to contact MH370 on various frequencies..

[jimsmitty01]

I think terrorism can almost be ruled out, because no one has come forward to claim. What would the point of the attack be, if there has been no stated motive, or further threats?

[clayne]

Mickjoebill asked

It is some time since I last flew through KLIA, but when I used a domestic MAS service there was screening before boarding, and, again before immigration. However, it doesn't preclude someone from another location coming in. I guess they'll be checking the tickets to the stolen passports.

They definitely check for liquids pre-boarding and as recently as a week ago I found myself having to finish a bottle of water at the pre-boarding screening area as a result of this (KLIA). It would also be interesting to know if the "questionable" passengers had checked in bags. All in all though I'd rate bag screening security in Malaysian airports to be noticeably less hassle than the US - and this would mean it's more prone to manipulation. Of course bags and luggage may have nothing to do with the final outcome as well.

Being in that I was just there a week ago for a decent time period and have MY-side family as well (although none on that flight thankfully) I feel a deep sense of sadness for those affected. MAS is a safe and professional airline and I have serious doubts as to the crew contributing to any kind of catastrophic error.

[clayne]

No liquid ban or not enforced as far as I am aware. Wife and I transited KL a few months back. I was surprised when she was able to board unchallenged with a 750ml bottle of water.

Definitely not what I've observed. It's a matter of if they detect it or not. You'll notice a stack of bottles at the post-scanner screening desk because these are bottles which have been "caught." That being said it doesn't seem to be strictly enforced or as high priority as some may think it would be.

[rondun]

What would the point of the attack be, if there has been no stated motive, or further threats? And bin Laden claimed responsibility for 9/11 when exactly?

Nothing can be ruled out at this stage

[Anti Skid On]

No liquid ban or not enforced as far as I am aware. Wife and I transited KL a few months back. I was surprised when she was able to board unchallenged with a 750ml bottle of water.

Were you in transit, or, did you pass through security with it? Water can be purchased in most airport transit lounges which are air side

[Aphrican]

Has this picture from a 2012 incident been posted yet?

http://cdn.feeyo.com/pic/20120810/201208100951017177.jpg

[SaturnV]

llagonne66, the point of the photo of the Brazilian general is that they first searched along the track, and subsequently ran their grids to the right of the track.

Several days later, they finally ran a grid to the left of the track and the LNP, and they found the debris field. By that time, five days in, the currents had scattered the field, which led to two years of frustration, trying to backtrack on the supposed drift to determine the origin point.

Lesson learned, if you don't find it right away, be systematic in your grids, rather than looking where you think it might be.

Recovery of the boxes should be much easier in this instance. Apprehension about ever recovering AF447's recorders was because of the bottom, full of crevices, canyons, and cliffs.

[Ixixly]

Oil slicks seen near where plane vanished | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/oil-slicks-may-be-from-missing-plane/story-e6frfkui-1226849277144)

They seem to show the "Oil Slicks" here, I'm no expert, but in my current part of the world we see slicks like this all the time, except they aren't slicks. I've been told they're stuff that washes off Coral, like an algae or spores or some such, we get them everywhere around here. Is it possible these "Oil slicks" are a red herring?

*EDIT*

Coral Spawn Slicks they are, just remembered that, not algae or spores! They look exactly like what is in that photo.

[truthinbeer]

Were you in transit, or, did you pass through security with it? Water can be purchased in most airport transit lounges which are air side

Boarded flight KUL-SYD after a stay in KL. Water was carried from our hotel.

[beamender99]

Can you post a link to that story. I don't see it on Al Jazeera. I had a look and could not find anything.

I saw it on the rolling text not on a news item.

My original posting was deleted I know not why.
Al Jazeera have just repeated on their midnight London time News
The location near the Tho Chu islands ( my corrected spelling) is where the Vietnamese Navy are searching.


In a live report from their correspondent in the region stated that there is a press conference scheduled in 45mins time so more information may be disclosed.

[compressor stall]

Ixixly.

The oil sheen I think is the faint smear part top right of that pic. The orange appears to be coral spawn.

[Porrohman]

New Straits Times is reporting that another Malaysian Airlines flight made contact with MH370 at "just after 1:30am";

SEPANG: A BOEING 777 pilot, who was flying 30 minutes ahead of the missing Malaysia Airlines aircraft, said he established contact with MH370 minutes after he was asked to do so by Vietnamese air traffic control.

The captain, who asked to not be named, said his plane, which was bound for Narita, Japan, was far into Vietnamese airspace when he was asked to relay, using his plane's emergency frequency, to MH370 for the latter to establish its position, as the authorities could not contact the aircraft.

"We managed to establish contact with MH370 just after 1.30am and asked them if they have transferred into Vietnamese airspace.

"The voice on the other side could have been either Captain Zaharie (Ahmad Shah, 53,) or Fariq (Abdul Hamid, 27), but I was sure it was the co-pilot.
"There were a lot of interference... static... but I heard mumbling from the other end.

"That was the last time we heard from them, as we lost the connection," he told the New Sunday Times.

He said those on the same frequency at the time would have heard the exchange.

This, he said, would include vessels on the waters below.

He said he thought nothing of it, as the occurrence (of losing contact) was normal, until it was established that MH370 never landed.

"If the plane was in trouble, we would have heard the pilot making the Mayday distress call. But I am sure that, like me, no one else up there heard it.


Read more: Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/pilot-i-established-contact-with-plane-1.503464?cache=03%2F7.212150%3Fpage%3D0%3Fpage%3D0%2F7.24706 6%2F7.490557%2F7.502513%2F7.576388#ixzz2vQ8TnTsw)

[etudiant]

I think Al Jazeera was referencing this Vietnamese story:
Vietnam Navy says Malaysia Airlines plane crashes off Tho Chu Island | Tu?i Tr? news (http://tuoitrenews.vn/society/18157/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-has-not-entered-vn-airspace-caav)


The Admiral who was mentioned has since said that he had been misquoted and that his only reference had been the oil slick. So there is nothing factual. Even the oil slick may be a red herring, as it may not be from aviation fuel.
I'm astonished that a plane stuffed with all manner of floatable items can disappear so completely.

[parabellum]

Carrying water on board: Serious water problems in KL at the moment, have been for some time, quite possible the rules have been relaxed whilst the shortages continue. Friends in KL say they are often without water for several hours a day, sometimes more than a day. Let us hope that the carriers of the stolen passports haven't exploited this loophole.


Coral Spawn or Oil Slick?: What those yellow slicks remind me of is the
mucky liquid, including some oil, that you see when a ship has washed it's tanks at sea. Often forbidden but that doesn't stop it happening!

[p.j.m]

Not only 2 passengers travelling on stolen passports, the Chinese redacting the name of one passenger from the Xinjiang province, one Russian listed on the passenger manifest denying he was on the flight, now the FBI are getting involved.

FBI to investigate disappearance of a Malaysian Airlines jet - latimes.com (http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-fbi-disappearance-malaysian-airlines-jet-20140308,0,5571373.story#axzz2vQ4QTtx2)

No "evidence" of terrorism according to FBI officials, though "images they find can be used with the bureau's vast counter-terrorism technology to look for matches with known members of Al Qaeda or other terrorist organizations"

[mickjoebill]

Not the first plane crash where passengers had fake passports

RiskandForecast.com | Risk Watch | At least 10 passengers of crashed Air India plane had fake passports (http://www.riskandforecast.com/post/dubai/at-least-10-passengers-of-crashed-air-india-plane-had-fake-passports_512.html)

[MrSnuggles]

Lots of updates here...

Oil slicks spotted in search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/08/malaysian-airlines-plane-live)

[Gunnadothat]

The story coming to light about the stolen passports on MH370 isn't surprising.

When we passed through WMKK in January, my wife was able to get through immigration on my sons passport - it appears that not too many visual checks were made.
The error was noticed when my son attempted to go through immigration a few minutes later, which caused some angst in the family but didn't appear to spook the officials who simply looked at my wife (now airside), and processed her passport accordingly.
-edit... Just to put it into perspective though, we travel through 4 or 5 times per year... first time there was any issue...

[Jack1985]

The Malaysian Civil Aviation General has confirmed that no ACARS message linking to malfunctions of the aircraft were sent to Malaysia Airlines Operations Centre at press conference just broadcast on Sky News.

[Capt Kremin]

24 hours plus now and the most intriguing part of this is the absence of any reports of a crash or wreckage from the numerous boats/aircraft in the area.

All of the main scenarios discussed have some sort of inflight breakup as the main explanation. So far there seems to be no witnesses to anything like that. Where are the seat cushions, suitcases and pieces of magazines floating on the water that we usually associate with such an event? No bodies either.

Even large pieces of floating wreckage aka AF447? We are not talking the mid Atlantic here. It is a smallish body of water heavily populated with all sorts of marine traffic. It is very strange.

There are air defence radars scattered though out the area. Surely they must be being reviewed for primary traces to aid the search.

[Psittacine]

Rumour, supposition, insight, speculation and deduction are what makes PPRuNe so popular...and a most effective and timely networking medium facilitating powerful information collation, communication and interaction after the fact with vigour and detail.

Having read each and every post on this thread, as always it was gratifying to get an early industry perspective. It is timely, argumentative and deductive with an oversight of critical introspection and thoughtful supposition and counter argument that relegates the commercial media to the back seat; I am sure every crash investigator has it bookmarked.

For MH370 there are social, engineering and military aspects that are yet to be investigated before a reasonable cause can be allocated. As with most incidents there will be a chain of events uncovered that will lead to that final event. Here we seem to have a catastrophic inflight failure with no current reports of debris or electronic/human distress/ACARS signals in a proven Boeing aircraft in clear weather with as yet no terrorist claims.

Whatever the reason for “MH370 contact lost” it seemed to have happened instantaneously…hopefully with least suffering to the unfortunate victims.

[jugofpropwash]

Re the report that the other aircraft reportedly contacted them around 1:30.

If the other pilot is uncertain whether it was pilot or copilot that he contacted, could it not also have been someone else in the cockpit? And he claims he heard "mumbling" - could that suggest that the crew was somehow partially incapacitated? Either under threat/control, injured, or possibly the presence of toxic fumes/pressurization problems?

Is there an incident timeline posted anywhere with take off, scheduled landing, last contact, etc? Thanks.

[RTD1]

Maybe this is a silly question, but is it possible that they're just looking in the completely wrong area? So far the SAR efforts are concentrated in the central part of the Gulf of Thailand. Is it possible the plane made landfall over Vietnam and crashed in a remote area there? Or perhaps even in the South China Sea?

[Interested Passenger]

regarding that conversation, he said others on the frequency could have heard it. could the mumbled reply actually come from one of them?

[Jack1985]

Did anyone watching the Sky News press conference awhile ago notice how defensive the general became when a reporter questioned Malaysia's passport scrutiny? there seems to a plug on information or maybe just like us they are clueless as to what happened.

[Lost in Saigon]

Re the report that the other aircraft reportedly contacted them around 1:30.

If the other pilot is uncertain whether it was pilot or copilot that he contacted, could it not also have been someone else in the cockpit? And he claims he heard "mumbling" - could that suggest that the crew was somehow partially incapacitated? Either under threat/control, injured, or possibly the presence of toxic fumes/pressurization problems?

Is there an incident timeline posted anywhere with take off, scheduled landing, last contact, etc? Thanks.

I find that report to be suspicious. I can see a situation where he thought he was speaking to MH370 but was taking to another aircraft by mistake.

My logic is that if it was indeed MH370 they would have had a meaningful conversation and had them establish contact with the appropriate ATC facility.

[B17NNS]

What time is daylight? Presumably air SAR will recommence?

[Machinbird]

During the search for AF447, BEA convened experts in the field of oceanography to come up with an estimated position (The Drift Group).

Toward the end of the report, they reported an unreconciled observation by the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) on board the COSMO SkyMed 1 satellite.

The shape of the slick was cusp shaped, not elongated as it would be from a ship.

I hope people are looking for this type of information now.

[Roger Rimjob]

Having looked out for MH370 crossing the same area this evening , The coverage seems very stable in that region on FR24 to suggest that when it indicated altitude 0 last night it was infact not receiving data due to something sudden.

Apart from the major course changes and the jump to 49800ft for about 3 minutes in exactly the region you refer to, your statement is entirely and 100% correct.

[Capn Bloggs]

If a completely destructive explosion would it be possible there could be no discernible debris?
I can't imagine a 777 being blown to little pieces. Look at the result of the standard car bombing; plenty of major damage but you can still see what it basically was.

Even if a big bomb went off amidships, the tail and wings would fall off but would still be in big pieces for the float down to the ocean. And all the stuff in the cabin, cushions, furnishings wouldn't just be vapourised.

[PoppaJo]

What time is daylight? Presumably air SAR will recommence?
Already 3 hours into Daylight in the search area.

[barrel_owl]

Speculation is part of the research and investigation process.
As long as you can't rely on conclusive evidence, you can only speculate based on the few ascertained hard facts.

That said, if ACARS do not indicate any mulfunction, as reported by the airline, this is an additional indication of a sudden catastrophic event.

My two cents.

[jugofpropwash]

Lost in Saigon -

Yeah, to me hearing "mumbling" buried in static isn't any sort of positive connection. As you say, it could have been another aircraft, and even if it was the right flight, no actual meaningful information was exchanged.

The lack of debris bothers me. Unless they're looking in the wrong place, if there was a bomb or a breakup, it seems that there should be a fairly large debris field. It's been daylight for awhile now, and yet no reports of debris, and no one claiming to have seen a fireball or other explosion.

What if the pilot attempted a ditching? As I recall, when Sully landed in the river, there was little debris other than the rafts and life jackets. If the plane was ditched, and for some reason the passengers were unable to get out before it sank, would that explain the lack of debris?

[Psittacine]

Besides the usual wild speculation from the plane spotters and wannabe pilots does anyone one have any factual /concrete infromation of what happened to this aircraft.
You seem to want it all want it now. Are you gen. Y?

Seems an inane and frustrated comment so far into this thread and adds absolutely zero to the discussion. Just what contribution would you be making to aviation if you had this factual/concrete information other than to inject some hind-sighted speculative comment for all of us plane spotters and wannabe pilots to read.

[evilroy]

Does anyone know about the last reported tracking? Was it primary radar? SSR? ADS-B?

The reports say "radar" but lots of laymen throw that term around generically.

[ve3id]

I wonder about the credibility of the Captain who was quoted as saying he had a conversation:

"He said those on the same frequency at the time would have heard the exchange.

This, he said, would include vessels on the waters below."

The Maritime Mobile Service uses frequencies in the range 150-160 MHz using Frequency Modulation, and well as some HF SSB. The aeronautical service uses frequencies between 108 and 132 MHz, using Amplitude Modulation, as well as some HF SSB.

The HF SSB frequencies are not in common between the services, unless we are talking about 2182 or 5680 kHz, the distress frequencies.

Two aircraft half an hour apart at 35,000 feet should be able to talk very clearly on VHF, where the boats below would not be listening (unless military). However I wonder why he would be using HF if VHF was adequate?

[truthinbeer]

Even if a big bomb went off amidships, the tail and wings would fall off but would still be in big pieces for the float down to the ocean. And all the stuff in the cabin, cushions, furnishings wouldn't just be vapourised.

Good point. What about debris from a plunge? Strange nothing is floating about though thinking about the Brazil crash...

[TylerMonkey]

Sully landed in daylight. I am not aware of any successful night ditching of a passenger jet at sea.
Just my .02 worth.

[Toruk Macto]

I will be surprised if a fisherman did not see something , the sea is littered with powerful lights at night , think its related to squid fishing . Maybe someone knows something out there but has no way of communicating it .

[Anti Skid On]

Onetrack said I was under the impression that any dive into the sea from cruise at FL350 would still result in rapid breakup as VNE was exceeded?
Perhaps the 777 airframe is exceptionally robust, more so than we thought.

The Fedex MD11 where the jumpseat riding FE tried to take control was flown way past the barberpole and had substantial damage, but was still able to be landed.

I remember watching a doco about the design and build of the B777 and the wing structural test was very impressive as it allowed something like a 6m flex up and down before failing. My guess is it would be pretty robust.

[Sorry Dog]

What if the pilot attempted a ditching? As I recall, when Sully landed in the river, there was little debris other than the rafts and life jackets. If the plane was ditched, and for some reason the passengers were unable to get out before it sank, would that explain the lack of debris?

Doesn't seem to fit the no radio situation.

Think of the Gol 737 flight after collision. Pilots were probably under too high of G load to operated anything other than the yoke or pedals if that. Aero forces broke the tail off, but it was still in large intact pieces until ground impact.

It's still a large search area, so lack of debris reports less than 2 days after search started I think is not unexpected. It's hard to be patient after something like this.

[Lost in Saigon]

Good point. What about debris from a plunge? Strange nothing is floating about though thinking about the Brazil crash...

The debris is there. They just haven't found it yet. The two "Oil Slicks" they think they found may not be from MH370 either.

Really, at this point we know almost nothing other than the aircraft has gone missing while cruising at 35,000' without a distress signal of any kind.

Everything else is speculation.

[truthinbeer]

I wonder about the credibility of the Captain who was quoted as saying he had a conversation:

Not the first time in this accident reporting that people have been misquoted...

[Novezeil]

Xiamen Daily, a relatively reliable chinese newpaper has reported another idenitity dismatch (name and passport no didn't match) was found on the boarding list, according to the exit&entry administration authority of Xiamen city.

A different media also reported they found the original owner of doubtful passport number was at home (at China) and didn't go aboard recently. (The second news has not been confirmed by China authority yet.)

[Capt Kremin]

WRT to crew incapacitation; the aircraft was shown steady at 35000 feet so presumably the auto pilot had been engaged not long after departure. Crew incapacitation at this point would mean the aircraft simply flew on at 35,000 till fuel exhaustion.

This Aviation Herald report (http://avherald.com/h?comment=4710c69b&opt=0) has the crew in contact with ATC as well so incapacitation at that point can be ruled out. The report states that both radar and radio contact was lost around 0122 local.

It will be interesting to see primary and secondary radar traces from that point on. The lack of transponder information from then on points to either massive electrical failure, or deliberate switching off.

[jimmydfw]

I've followed this thread and enjoyed everyone's insight. I just wanted to add this to the mix:

They are reporting an additional 2x possible stolen passports being used on the flight.


Two more Europeans passengers with suspect identities onboard missing MH370 - The Malaysian Insider (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/two-more-europeans-passengers-with-suspect-identities-onboard-missing-mh370)

I can not believe that the stolen passports are a red herring.

[etudiant]

Does not the absence of debris pretty much eliminate the various in flight breakup options?
No in flight breakup and no Acars suggests purposeful action rather than accident.

[xyze]

possible or not on the 777?

[Stanley11]

Just throwing this out there...

In the crash of MI185 at Palembang of a 737 in 19 Dec 1997, the crash site had very little debris. The aircraft apparently went into a steep dive and plunged into the palembang river. There were some debris that were on the surface (due to the inflight breakup) and surrounding dry land but at the impact area, most of it went straight into the riverbed due to the immense speed. Pilot suicide was concluded by the NTSB but the Indonesian government official report could not definitively state it as a concrete finding. A group of families took their own action to sue the manufacturer of a part which commands the rudder and was awarded some settlement (in USA courts). The vid is available on youtube.

If there is anything to take from this incident, it would be that the high speed of impact will leave few floating debris. Any that were generated during the breakup would be scattered over a wide area and very difficult to find (compared to a narrow river). As for the lack of comms and silence in the cockpit, apparently the MI185 incident captain had a history of disabling the CB to the CVR which was NTSB's key link to the suicide theory. Though investigators also revealed that there was a history of problems with the power to the Black boxes in the preceding flights.

Really hope to find out what happened soon so that the families can get some closure.

[Jack1985]

Two more Europeans passengers with suspect identities onboard missing MH370 (http://my.news.yahoo.com/two-more-europeans-passengers-suspect-identities-onboard-missing-005206266.html)

Regards the above post, it's almost unanimously accepted that was a case of pilot suicide something that is primarily disputed in Indonesia.

[Psittacine]

Does not the absence of debris pretty much eliminate the various in flight breakup options?

I think the only supposition with a probable outcome is that debris will be found.

[jugofpropwash]

If (and I do mean if) the other captain did actually make contact with the aircraft after it lost contact/disappeared off radar then it throws a whole different perspective on this.

[LASJayhawk]

Cant believe it was #5. I would think you would get at least 1 squawk in between FL350 and the water.

[Capt Kremin]

The report from the MH flight asked to contact the MH 370 indicates they were using 121.5. I have never been asked to contact another aircraft on HF. It would be very rare.

[Ida down]

I think we will all be relieved when something happens, especially those poor family relatives of crew and passengers. Just why no seats or life jackets have surfaced, I like many others, have no idea, other than they are searching in the wrong area, but my knowledge of that area, is it a busy one, they fish all night and day, its just weird nobody saw anything. Its not like its in the middle of the Atlantic. But until they do, just so much is on hold. Boeing (is it our aircraft that caused it) Malaysian Airlines LAMES (what did we miss?) Security at KL (who did we let thru) refuellers (everything was normal) Flight Ops, (did we miss anything with these two pilots) and if so, what? And for the aviation industry en masse, a terrible tragedy has taken place, one we hate to acknowledge, and to have to be forced to believe once more, neither machine, nor man, is infallible.

[Psittacine]

Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/pilot-i-established-contact-with-plane-1.503464?cache=03%2F7.218081%3Fpage%3D0%2F7.236222%2F7.26189 5%3Fkey%3DMalaysia%2F7.288047%3Fkey%3DMalaysia%3Fkey%3DMalay sia)

This is the report URL. The report is hazy on detail and does not state that MH370 was clearly identified on the first call. The report is silent on the response to the Vietnamese Controller's request for a second contact. Far from definitive information.

121.7 being VHF and thus LOS was probably the best frequency to use if not SOPs.

[alloha]

I ve been in KLIA twice (last time 2 years ago).Immigration checks carried out thoroughly (even when they noticed the official invitation from MAS for assessment ) as well as the security checks on my flights back to Europe ( 2 points of security,first after the immigration and the second right on the boarding gate,where i forced to leave two bottles of water,as i didnt expect second security check). So i am bit surprised about concerns for the security in KLIA. As far as it goes for the passport issue ,one of them was not on the INTERPOL missing list but still no clue what went wrong with the other one,especially on a flight bound to China where visa restrictions are quite strict .

[llondel]

Given that the recorders should be emitting audible pings if they're intact and under water, I would have thought the searchers would have deployed an array of sonobuoys to listen. Perhaps they have, it's not something the media would think of reporting to the general public unless they ended up being responsible for finding the orange boxes.

[Seven]

Of ALL the accident threads on PPRuNe over the years this one is by far the most embarrassing to read. By a country mile.

Not too sure about that - there have been some pearlers over the years.

As far as cringeworthy or embarassing coverage about MH370 goes, however, most of the comments here seem almost benign.

It's appalling to see so many so called "esteemed" media outlets from a host of countries running a gaggle of images of bewildered and clearly devastated individuals who seem to be desperately trying to make sense of the situation and shield themseleves from the invasive shutterbugs at the same time. Stories are smattered with cliches, conspiracy theories and speculation presented as fact.

One does expect this with the usual suspects, but it seems the slightest hint of an information vacuum appears reason enough for the "respected" media sources to climb on to the bandwagon as well. Of course, all in the name of "public interest".

[p.j.m]

- Terrorism. Over water is a favourite/preferred method of terrorists when it comes to those sort of acts as it is harder for investigators to find key pieces of evidence and proof. The fact the aircraft was lost over water at such a height and between two bodies of land would have to be considered as a possibility.

Again, so many possibilities with so little evidence at this stage. However all our thoughts should be prioritised towards the families and friends of those killed, as well as those good people at Malaysian who will be distraught at this event. R.I.P

Given the lack of debris found, in an area of dense marine traffic, and the sudden loss of all telemetry, and 6 or 7 hours of fuel onboard, in the dead of night, if the aircraft was hijacked, where would be the limits it could travel to?

I'm thinking the "*stans" are not outside the realms of possibility.

[thaiphoon]

I sincerely doubt that another a/c established contact with MH370 at 01:30 as MH370 had plunged already more than an hour earlier.

[Jack1985]

Breaking news on Sky News now that, Malaysian Authorities have confirmed four passengers are being investigated following the ''receipt'' of information from Interpol. A news conference by Malaysia's Transport Minister will follow on Sky News very shortly.

[StormyKnight]

@letsjet Not sure what the protocol is for a new thread or even if one is permitted on the same incident....Perhaps after 48 hours we start again? :eek:

It has been quite a while since the last incident, so I guessing everyones "in for a chat", but to be honest I have read the whole thread, & there is very little wild speculation, almost all of it is possible & given the lack of contrary evidence to date no one can conclude that anyones post doesn't have some possible truth to it. They are all theories anyway after all!

Theres plenty of stuff posted that I didn't think myself of as being a possibility, both technical & left field...but it all goes into the pot for me to decide what I think may have happened.

Also a splattering of "newbie" questions helps sort out some of the misinformation & perhaps corrects some assumptions made by more experienced persons.

The number of graphics I have seen with the flight travelling direct from A to B is astounding. Just shows how much the news stations don't know about flight lanes & great circles. Luckily they are not in control of SAR (Search & Rescue).

Yes the thread is long, real details are slow to come to light, every little bit of new information will have several pages spent on it to determine its worth, especially if you only get a bit every 6 hours or more...

[Capt Kremin]

There are numerous air defence radars in the area. Some of them would have tracked the primary return of the aircraft.

Switching off the transponder and flying elsewhere, undetected, is not really credible.

[cockpitvisit]

if the aircraft was hijacked, where would be the limits it could travel to?

If the aircraft was flown somewhere else by hijackers, it would not have disappeared from the radar (even if the hijackers turned the transponder off).

[k12345]

Did anyone notice on the flight radar 24 track from the same flight number last night, the tracking signal seems disappear around about 40minutes into flight, then comes back on 21 minutes late at the tip of Vietnam. Same thing on the 1st March as well.

The tracking always seems to stop on these occasions as the aircraft turns from 25 degrees to 38 degrees. On other days the signal is apparent the whole way across to Vietnam. (weather/atmospheric conditions perhaps cause the loss of sign on some days??)

Anyway, that gives a rough distance of ~220km and a fairly short flying time between A and B for the search teams assuming it kept the same heading.

If last signal ATC contact was potentially around 1.30am (10mins after it goes off the flight radar screen) Then plane would have been perhaps only ~110km off of the Vietnam coast at that point.

Doesn't seem like that big an area to search if using grids with multiple S&R aircraft and it is near impossible for something to drop out of the sky without noticeable debris being scatter around if there was an explosion.

The search and rescue seems very badly organised from what i've seen and compared to the s&r of other aircraft lost at sea in recent years (Helicopters, North Sea).

[guestofguest]

Italian:
Mar 8, CZ748, 00：35-6：30 KUL-PEK

Mar 8, CZ767, 11:55-15:15 PEK-AMS

Mar 8, CZ7737, 20：55-22：20 AMS-CPH

Ticket No. 784-*******099

Austrian：
Mar 8, CZ748, 00：35-6：30 KUL-PEK

Mar 8, CZ767, 11:55-15:15 PEK-AMS

Mar 8, CZ7689, 21:05-22:25 AMS-FRA

Ticket No. 784-*******100

[ChristySweet]

RE Post 563

I wonder about the credibility of the Captain who was quoted as saying he had a conversation:

"He said those on the same frequency at the time would have heard the exchange.

This, he said, would include vessels on the waters below."

The Maritime Mobile Service uses frequencies in the range 150-160 MHz using Frequency Modulation, and well as some HF SSB. The aeronautical service uses frequencies between 108 and 132 MHz, using Amplitude Modulation, as well as some HF SSB.

The HF SSB frequencies are not in common between the services, unless we are talking about 2182 or 5680 kHz, the distress frequencies.

Two aircraft half an hour apart at 35,000 feet should be able to talk very clearly on VHF, where the boats below would not be listening (unless military). However I wonder why he would be using HF if VHF was adequate?

According to the article at New Strait Times link ;

....the captain, who asked to not be named, said his plane, which was bound for Narita, Japan, was far into Vietnamese airspace when he was asked to relay, using his plane's emergency frequency, to MH370 for the latter to establish its position, as the authorities could not contact the aircraft.

[camel]

news conference:

Search area extended due to possiblity air turn back.

Oil slick found by vietnamese but no debris yet reported.

Passenger manifest/ passport discrepency issues being investigated by international agency's .

No contact made by any another pilot after radar contact lost.

[jugofpropwash]

If one flies low enough, is it possible to be "below radar" and therefore not tracked, or is that one of those things that only works in the movies?

[Mahatma Kote]

Military Primary Radar has the ability to measure altitude and also compute bearing and speed. They have to do this to vector interceptor aircraft or missiles.

This was shown in TWA 800 where radar returns after transponder failure were used to determine the trajectory and velocity of the major components. This was done by the NTSB using military system software.

[Capt Kremin]

Primary radar only gives lat and long, it does not give FL, speed or heading. I would be extremely concerned if any pilots thought otherwise.

Primary radar records can and are used to deduce all those parameters, with the possible exception of altitude, in accident investigations.

See the report for Egypt Air 990.

[Ida down]

Very Ex BA might be on the money, 4 PAX now suspect, and FBI called in. Still no sign of aircraft.

[Novezeil]

At where the MAS conference took place, one of the relatives said his brother was one of the passengers on board, and his phone, which has a singapore number, has successfully been dialed.

However till now, the recent two dial has not got any responses. Malaysia authority has recorded this number for further investigation.

[mm43]

NTSB - Press Release
March 8, 2014
The National Transportation Safety Board has a team of investigators en route to Asia to be ready to assist with the investigation of the March 8 Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 event. The Boeing 777 went missing on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Once the location of the airplane is determined, International Civil Aviation Organization protocols will determine which country will lead the investigation.
Because of the lengthy travel time from the United States, the NTSB has sent a team of investigators, accompanied by technical advisers from Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration, to the area so they will be positioned to offer U.S. assistance. The team departed from the U.S. tonight.

The country that leads the investigation will release all information about it.

[Una Due Tfc]

If you have enough readings from PSR, you can deduce heading, what i'm saying is SSR gives live, factual readings of heading, received from the transponder, PSR is all guestimation

[Capt Kremin]

I wouldn't be surprised to find that the two fake passports, on an aircraft travelling to Beijing, is anything really noteworthy.

[glofish]

Stuffed up rapid descent due decompression and forgetting to put on the masks?

[LASJayhawk]

A single primary radar (skin paint) gives you bearing and distance, nothing else. If you observe multiple returns you can deduce heading and speed.

If you want altitude you need a second radar stations returns time synchronized to the 1st station., and observing multiple sweeps.

I'm not counting a tactical radar that has a very narrow beam width and a very narrow scan angle, and has almost no use for civil aviation.

BTW: who is the genius that decided mode A would be Code, and mode C would be Altitude? :ooh:

[Mahatma Kote]

If you have enough readings from PSR, you can deduce heading, what i'm saying is SSR gives live, factual readings of heading, received from the transponder, PSR is all guestimation

Military surveillance radar systems do it all in real time and are more than accurate enough to vector interceptors to (predicted) location and altitude.

Vietnam especially runs round-the-clock military surveillance due to a number of ongoing territorial disputes.

[Una Due Tfc]

LAS

DME based on PSR is getting VERY oldschool. I'm sure it is still used in accident investigation for confirmation, but with CPDLC and ADS, it's very much a backup

[Ida down]

Stormy Knight, I guess it boils down to this business needs answers, and fairly quickly at that. I imagine most on this blog are either pilots or engineers, all who are using experience as to their opinion what might or might not have happened. For those who suggest it is a poor blog, might take into consideration until something concrete shows up, speculate is all we/us can do. But the very nature of the business puts some urgency into it, and people react to that. Some, suggesting that pilots and engineers iqnore the whole dreadful thing, until something gives them a lead, is nonsense, this affects the whole industry and regardless of whom you work for, most are thinking about Malaysian Airlines right now. No airline, unless totally hopeless, deserves this. And this is considered to be a good airline.

[philbky]

Not really surprised that nothing has yet turned up. Descent from altitude after a catastrophic event, either in large or small pieces, would be subject to trajectories influenced by, amongst others, the forward motion of the aircraft, the force of whatever caused the catastrophy and wind, which could scatter debris over a wide area well away from the point of the event. In effect we are back to basics once the aircraft fails to be a complete unit and the fact is the area to be covered can be thousands of square kilometres.

[Una Due Tfc]

Okay okay I do not work in military and never have or ever will, if you have enough PSR heads in enough different locations then accuracy increases obviously, but in comparison to ADS or SSR? MAH 777's are full CPDLC apparently so that's the most up to date on board telemetry we are going to get before the FDRs are recovered

[PlatinumFlyer]

Can anyone comment on the total lack of ACARS data. The key to being pointed early in the right direction on AF447 was ACARS. With all the resources of PPRUNE members, someone on a positon to know must be in a postion to know if there were ANY ACARS sent.

[Jack1985]

The South China Morning Post is running pictures of two debris fields spotted from a flight at 36,000ft this morning, they were taken from a MAS flight en-route from PEK to KUL.

Can anyone comment on the total lack of ACARS data. The key to being pointed early in the right direction on AF447 was ACARS. With all the resources of PPRuNe members, someone on a positon to know must be in a postion to know if there were ANY ACARS sent.

At the news conference they said no ''erroneous'' information was received via ACARS.

[wings123]

A photo taken by a passenger flying the same route has surfaced on twitter: https://twitter.com/JournoDannyAsia/status/442495115911630848/photo/1. Apparently, it shows an area outside of the search location.

[Cool Guys]

VN Express, Vietnam's largest news site, reports that Vietnam Emergency Rescue Center just announced it has found signal of the missing plane at 9.50am 120 miles South West of Ca Mau cape, the Southern-most point of Vietnam.

The signal is believed to be the ELT (Emergency Locator Transmittor) , which can be activated manually by the flight crew or automatically upon impact.

[Una Due Tfc]

No ACARS/ADS means the fuselage broke up immediately, the cockpit was severed from the transmitters

[Pom Pax]

glofish Stuffed up rapid descent due decompression and forgetting to put on the masks?
A new thought!

I have 2 questions
1. What was the previous rotation of this aircraft?
Possibility of package hidden on board and not discovered by cleaners.
2. How long was the aircraft on the ground in semi darkness at KLI?
Possibility of of unauthorised entry.

[LASJayhawk]

Platinum: Sky News is reporting no abnormality. I presume that means good data til there was none.

Una: Understood. And I thought your earlier post explained it well, but there was a backlash of but in the XXX investigation...

When you think about it, when all else fails the old school stuff still has its place, even if it is in the aftermath of a disaster. It is interesting that they are reporting an increase of the search area in case the aircraft turned back??

[SalNichols94807]

No, multiple PSRs do not necessarily mean that you have improved track accuracy. For that to happen, one has to have track to track correlation, with some kind of smoothing and filtering. Mathematically it's not trivial. So, what most air surveillance systems do is pick the tracking source in which they have the greatest confidence and ignore or suppress the other inputs.

Also, most PSRs scan in az, but not in el. IOW, we don't frigging know how high you are, hence Mode C. Military surveillance systems will use a combination of search and height finder radars to develop a track that is coherent in az and el.

Phased array radars of course can do it all, but the el scan tends to be very duty cycle intensive. IOW, you can lose the track while you're farting around trying to see where the target is in el.

[p.j.m]

The South China Morning Post is running pictures of two debris fields spotted from a flight at 36,000ft this morning, they were taken from a MAS flight en-route from PEK to KUL.

New possible sighting of debris at sea as China sends warships to join search for missing Malaysian Airlines flight | South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1444179/new-possible-sighting-debris-sea-china-sends-warships-join-search-missing)

http://i.imgur.com/8BQdspv.jpg

The poster, whose profile information says he is a banker working for China Minsheng Bank in Beijing, wrote that he took the snaps from his window at a height of 11,000 metres, at about 6.45am on Sunday.

[Mahatma Kote]

Malaysian Customs and Immigration takes photos of each departing passenger's face as well as electronically scanned fingerprints.

Stand by for the images of the four suspect passengers - if they are 'interesting'

[LASJayhawk]

The Ca Mau think was 1st reported a day ago.

If the A/C ELT was going off the 406 signal would have been picked up by satellite long ago. And I would like to think every pilot within a thousand miles was listening to 121.5 on a comm "just in case"

Do we know for sure this aircraft had an ELT installed? Maybe it had one of the "Firestarter406's" in it an was pulled after the 787 barbecued?

[underfire]

The FDR has a pinger. It is strange that this has not been mentioned.

[RetiredTooEarly]

A photographer I most definitely ain't!

Just wondering that if this pic was taken enroute fro Beijing to KUL, IN THE MORNING, seems very dark to me and debris appears very uniform in size?

Just wondering if this sort of stuff would show up from 11,000 metres, even on zoom?

[Brookfield Abused]

Seems like a fairly vertical shot from a Window seat and must be very high zoom also?
If any truth, then no doubt the A/C sent their exact position to the relevant Search coordinators.

[Jack1985]

Two passengers on the flight had onward flights from PEK meaning they avoided visa checks and would be allowed on the flight to PEK - PAX 1 had onward flight to AMS and then CPH, PAX 2 had onward flight to FRA both with China Southern Airlines.

Both passengers were using stolen passports.

[Passenger 389]

Pom Pax,


"1. What was the previous rotation of this aircraft?
Possibility of package hidden on board and not discovered by cleaners."



It appears 9M-MRO had been to a number of destinations during the past week, including multiple trips to Mumbai, Dhaka (Bangladesh), and Denpasar (Bali).

[StormyKnight]

Another report of debris...
Some debris has been spotted in the seas between Malaysia and Vietnam but it is unclear whether it came from the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, a Chinese official said on Sunday.


MISSING MH370: Hishammuddin: Four names in flight manifest under probe - Latest - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-hishammuddin-four-names-in-flight-manifest-under-probe-1.504004)

[porterhouse]

Just wondering if this sort of stuff would show up from 11,000 metres, even on zoom? Your scepticism is justified. These are photos of the debris fields like I am the Pope.

[Weheka]

Agree with B A, how would you get a shot of debris from 11000 meters which appears to be vertical?

[B772]

Regular visitors to Bangkok would be aware that 'anything' can be purchased in Bangkok. Fake ID's including FBI, Secret Service, drivers licences for any Countries etc etc. Stolen Passports in Thailand are valueable and are modified as required with a new picture.

There are many fake passports in Malaysia sourced from Thailand due to the passport rules there. If you lose a passport in Malaysia it is a serious matter and you have to wait a period of time for a replacement. If you lose the replacement you may be ineligible for a further issue for up to 5 years.

Malaysia also has a Passport Blacklist with a target update of less than 1 hour after receiving notification from a Government Agency or Court. You are added to the Blacklist. You can be denied leaving Malaysia if you become Bankrupt, have an upcoming or current Court Case, owe Income Tax, been convicted of a Criminal Offence and numerous other reasons, hence travel on fake Passports.

Readers may also be surprised to hear the critical parts of some Passports including US Passports are made in Thailand, a Country with a radical Islamic population.

It will be interesting to see what is said about the 'impersonators' on MH370. I hope they could turn out to be Malaysian businessmen.

[LASJayhawk]

Cool guys: 26 hours old

http://www.pprune.org/8358676-post54.html

later found to be incorrect.

[Innaflap]

Article on the 4 persons of interest

Two more Europeans with suspect identities onboard missing MH370 - The Malaysian Insider (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/two-more-europeans-passengers-with-suspect-identities-onboard-missing-mh370)

[Jack1985]

Malaysian officials have just said the aircraft made an attempt to turn-back - Live on Sky News

[k12345]

http://ww1.sinaimg.cn/bmiddle/6aca1bebjw1ee97m0dug6j20xc18g447.jpg


http://ww1.sinaimg.cn/bmiddle/6aca1bebjw1ee97lwru5jj20xc18gn2d.jpg

??_RAYMOND?????_?? (http://www.nianzhi.cc/user/1791630315)

Photos are not from right above if you see the same shot less zoomed in shot (first link)

[StormyKnight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiQZ9K5IMAAbE1c.jpg
Found a "less cropped" version of the debris...with windows frame for reference....

https://twitter.com/search?q=mh370%20debris&src=typd&mode=photos

[RatherBeFlying]

The various jurisdictions may not be on the best of terms with one another and may be reluctant to reveal the capabilities of their various military radar systems by releasing detailed tracks.

I am still bemused at the lack of reports of debris when it seems the area is covered by fishing boats -- are they all NORDO?

A high speed impact would produce small fragments. Perhaps there's a lot of normal flotsam in the area such that the extra debris would not attract attention.

[SalNichols94807]

Well it appears to have been taken at night, which begs the question: what is the light source causing each "fragment" to illuminate with exactly the same intensity?

This is a photo of ground based lights.

[Weheka]

"Found a "less cropped" version of the debris...with windows frame for reference...."

A photographer I a'int either, but the photo just doesn't look right, almost looks like the lights of a town or city?

[Jack1985]

Just to keep the facts straight

As stated about 10 posts back No ERRONEOUS ACARS,

Yes that information was posted by me. Cheers for that.


In relation to the photo the South China Morning Post is claiming it was taken by a passenger at 6:45 AM this morning en-route from PEK to KUL with MAS.

[PPRuNeUser0179]

Does anyone know of a link which would provide updated information from the authorities?

[Innaflap]

This is one of the photos from the PEK/KUL flight that claims to show debris:

Missing Malaysia Airlines jet carrying 239 triggers Southeast Asia search - Page 10 - World News - Thailand Forum (http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/709464-missing-malaysia-airlines-jet-carrying-239-triggers-southeast-asia-search/page-10)

Looks a bit more plausible than the cropped one

[LASJayhawk]

Underfire: 2 UAB's one on the FDR and one on the CVR. Assuming they are wet then they will be going off, but if covered by debris the range will be limited.

I'm starting to wonder... A few months ago the TSA in the US decided they had some authority to start inspecting part 145 repair stations at or near US airports. It would not take more than a few min. for a MX person to disable the UAB's and the ELT on an aircraft.

[chucko]

Follow-up question at the KL presser (also live on BBC World News) brought out that it was "military radar" that indicated the possible turn-back. Didn't say whose military radar.

[clayne]

I too am quite skeptical of the "debris" photograph. I guess it's possible that with highly angular setting or rising sunlight that debris could be lit in such a way. One would have to assume the photographer is capable of recognizing what are lit city lights and what are something that looks out of the norm - and hence why they brought it to outside attention. Additionally it does appear the shot was taken in the early morning according to reports.

On the flip-side it could also be completely bogus.

[peterporker]

The picture would appear (to me) to show fishing boats (probably squid). The amount of fishing boats in this area is unreal and they look very similar to this picture from the air at night.

[camel]

news conference;

main focus to locate a/c.

military radar shows a possible aircraft turnback.

search widened to include land/sea area on the western side of country/malacca straits.

they have cctv of the 2 pax using stolen passports,from check in to departure gate.

22 aircraft and 40 ships involved in search.incl 5 from indonesia.

5 pax did not board the a/c ,their bags were removed.

[oblivia]

One would have to assume the photographer is capable of recognizing what are lit city lights and what are something that looks out of the norm - and hence why they brought it to outside attention.

The photo was posted to Weibo, a Chinese social media site.

[k12345]

Looking at the debris photos and information from the poster on Weibo. His photo was taken at 6.39am according to his tv screen and he was travelling on Beijing to KL route with Malaysia airlines and was about 90 minutes from KL.

At 6.39am KL time malaysian airlines flight MH361 from Beijing to KL was exactly over this area and i've just checked the flight track for it .

It seems further away than areas being searched, and all other flights usually show up over this area on radar. This is maybe 40-50km from Phan Thiet and maybe 20km from the coast of vietnam.

What do you think??

[Passagiata]

On the flip side it could also be completely bogus

This. Or else aeroplane seats and suitcases etc have their own light source. And are the size of a roof ...

[planit]

The photo that shows the window frame as reference looks to me to be ice crystals that form on the window panes sometimes. This explains why they are all of similar intensity. With the normal visibility from inside a cabin with the inner protective panes you can't point vertically down so some of the possible debris would be floating in the sky !

[Mises]

According to this article: Two More Europeans with False Passports (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/two-more-europeans-passengers-with-suspect-identities-onboard-missing-mh370)

It would seem these are the two Ukrainians. I recall a list posted here earlier with the 7 Pax who booked through China Southwest. The article said they were both from the same country. That list had 2 Ukrainians.

[silverhawk]

Possible turn back? It did or it did not. No need for further interrogation of your military radar records.

When pressed by the Journalists, who at last seem to understand how to ask pertinent questions, the military and political guys were pressured into lying immediately. Ask any body language specialist.

The Aviation Minister is ALSO the Defence Minister! Double salary and conflict of interest. He must be very proud of the security arrangements at KL regarding passport recognition, either rubbish or worse ignored. On his watch.

By the way, a chest full of tacky medals do not impress anyone other than third world dictators.

[StormyKnight]

UPDATE [1.20pm]: Department of Civil Aviation clarifies earlier statement by the Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein,
saying only two – not four – passengers had boarded the flight using stolen passports.
CCTV footage shows the two individuals from the check-in point to departure. Footage will be used for investigations.

Malaysia Airlines says the aircraft had been repaired by Boeing and was certified safe to fly. They dismissed the possibility of a technical problem.

#PrayForMH370 Live Updates: Two passengers with stolen passports caught on CCTV (http://ph.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraft-goes-missing--says-airline-023820132.html)

[DWS]

Boeing 777 Wing Test - YouTube

By the way - I was at that test- Being a then recently retired injun - ear having worked on that program. And i attended the quick look summary afterwards.

They had handed out before the test a marked page showing where they expected the failure to occur. the quick look data displayed in the conference room indicated the prediction was within a few inches of expected- verifying the computer program analysis. It was as I recall on the upper surface in compression at about the second or third rib out from side of body join.

I mention this only to show that the test was accurate, did not flex ' up and down' as some say and exceeded the required load by a few percent.

And from memory - it would take a approx 3 g plus pull up ( as in recovery from a dive ) to fail the wing.

[k12345]

That photo was taken 6.39am KL time or 5.39 Vietnam time. Sunrise in Ho chi Minh is ~6:04 am local time.

So i doubt it would be pitch dark at 5.39am.

Also the sunrise from 11,000 m would be around 7 minutes earlier. Now i understand that won't illuminate the ground but it certainly won't be pitch dark when the guy took the photo.

[Tim Hamilton]

Are Malaysia Airlines telling us all they know ?

I dont think so.

1. If there was a turn back SOP would be for crew to report this - they said they did not get a report.

2. Boeing 777-200 reports constantly back to base many paramateurs of the aircrafts performance and position. MH say they dont know the position of the crash site.

There are other points also but in essence. They are keeping many things to them selves. Ref Military radar that was drag out of them from a reporter.

Watch this space Malaysian Air are not being transparent for some reason.

Watch the press conferences carefully and make up your mind.

[Tim Hamilton]

Exactly thats what I am saying above.

[500N]

That photo of "debris" when blown up looks like lights of buildings in a valley with a winding dark streak through the middle. Houses either side of it ? River ? And houses up side valleys.

[StormyKnight]

A Malaysian military radar showed trace of flight MH370 turning back before it vanished early yesterday although the pilots did not issue any distress signals, the authorities said today.
The trace has prompted the authorities to widen the search area beyond the point the Boeing 777-200ER disappeared from the air over the Malaysian-Vietnamese maritime border at 1.30am on Saturday.
The authorities are looking are studying the possibility that MH370 could have made a turn-around midway through its flight to Beijing.
Air force chief General Tan Sri Rodzali Daud said that based on the recoding of military radar, there was possible indication that the aircraft did a turn-back.
"We are still trying to make sense of this because it is corroborated by civil radar,” he said today at the latest press conference held at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport. – March 9, 2014.

Military radar trace shows MH370 turn-back, but no distress signal (http://my.news.yahoo.com/military-radar-trace-shows-mh370-turn-back-no-053514452.html)

[SOPS]

BBC reporting that we may now have four people on stolen passport.

[silverhawk]

Caught on CCTV but still allowed to travel, incompetant in the extreme!
Too late by then. By the way, every passenger in a terminal is 'caught on CCTV'

Idiotic press release.

[threemiles]

Military radar may be primary (passive) while ATC is secondary (active).

The turn-back info just hints to the possible fact that after a catastrophic failure electricity went away and a bigger part of the assembly spinned, thus producing primary radar returns.

[SloppyJoe]

That picture does not show fishing boats nor does it show debris. I know exactly what it shows as have flown over this very spot many many times and always stare in amazement at these lights. To the east of VVTS is a large area where they grow flowers. This is a picture of these fields (greenhouses) where they grow the flowers they are lit up at night. It is unmistakable, flying from HKG to SGN it is just prior to TOD.

[John Hill]

Must be late in the day there now? What has been found? There should be a mile or so of floating seat cushions and baggage surely?

If the plane is not there where is it?

[Five Green]

If I was a betting man I would say the pic in post 658 is taken over the greenhouses along the coast of Vietnam. When you fly over them sat night they are all lit up and look like glowing rectangles. If you look closely you can see how the greenhouses follow the valley contours.

[Tim Hamilton]

Why did the CNN reporter have to drag this information out of the military man at the conference. Ref Military radar picking up turn back. He was most uncomfortable admitting to it. For some reason Malaysian are not being 100% transparent with the public !! Perhaps protecting their good safety record.

[Xeque]

Two confirmed pax using stolen passports and now (possibly) four.
No sign of the aircraft and no wreckage yet. Only the oil slicks and these in an area with many oil and gas platforms any one of which could have had an accidental spillage. Complete and sudden loss of all communications.
Is it possible that this is a successful hijack? Is this aircraft sitting on the ground somewhere, incommunicado while the hijackers make their demands directly with governments?

[John Hill]

Better check the apron at FNJ. :(

[Tim Hamilton]

Yerr there is definately something else going on here !

Just put all the pieces we know together and look at the news conferences.

Malaysian Airlines is NOT telling us all they know.

[Inoppy]

Would have to agree that the picture looks very similar to the greenhouses close to SGN. There are many located near Mui ne and Phan Thiet.

[SOPS]

I'm starting to think the aircraft has been hijacked as it seems to have completely disappeared. If it crashed, surely by now some wreckage would have been found.

[chefrp]

Watch the press conferences carefully and make up your mind. Here in South East Asia information is guarded closely and not shared, as is the case in the west. This is no surprise. Are they hiding/not sharing information? Probably...there is also the cultural problem of "not wanting to lose face" that always gets in the way. This terrible event could change the way they do business as they have been thrust on to the World Stage :uhoh:

[porterhouse]

If it crashed, surely by now some wreckage would have been found.
I would not used 'surely'.
Whatever the delay it may be result of incompetent or very slow search operation.

[ChicoG]

Whatever the delay it may be result of incompetent or very slow search operation.

Or, for whatever reason, looking in the wrong place will do it.

[jugofpropwash]

Report said that they were extending search area to include land area on the western side of the country.

What is the terrain like? Are there unpopulated forest/rain forest type areas where the terrain might mask crash debris?

If not, I'm beginning to wonder if the plane actually was hijacked. Could someone plot out a circle showing how far the fuel on board could have gotten them?

[bille1319]

Until they find seats cushions floating from the doomed airliner one would think they could extend the radius to the limits of its endurance because who knows that the hijacker(s) may have pulled all the coms circuit brakers and taken it below radar to some isolated landing strip on a small island in the S China Sea?

[CobaltBlue]

Was anyone else watching the Malaysian news conference on CNN about 90 minutes ago. One thing the commanding general said was that they had aircraft searching off western Malaysia, in the vicinity of Penang. That is a very long way from the last recorded radar fix go the aircraft.

Puzzling!

[John Hill]

Could someone plot out a circle showing how far the fuel on board could have gotten them?

In no particular order and only a guess...

India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Japan, Russia, Mongolia, Korea South, Korea North, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Bhutan, Australia.

[StormyKnight]

In no particular order and only a guess...

India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Japan, Russia, Mongolia, Korea South, Korea North, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Bhutan, Australia.

Yes a slightly bigger SAR area....

[jugofpropwash]

In no particular order and only a guess...

India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Japan, Russia, Mongolia, Korea South, Korea North, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Bhutan, Australia.

Ok, so where is there a flat surface long enough to land the plane - and out of the way where it won't be seen?

[jugofpropwash]

Thinking outside the box...

For a moment, let's assume it is a hijacking. Either demands are being kept secret, or there have been no demands. Why do people usually hijack a plane? To defect, for ransom, to exchange for political prisoners, to make a 'statement'... What if there was someone in particular on the plane the hijackers wanted? The passenger who's name the Chinese redacted bothers me....

[clayne]

Surely any airspace a hijacked and unidentified plane flew through would have raised suspicion by now. Doesn't it seem more simple that the wreckage just hasn't been located yet? As much as I'd prefer the plane was hijacked and is in hiding somewhere with everyone relatively safe, my gut says something catastrophic happened.

[John Hill]

Ok, so where is there a flat surface long enough to land the plane - and out of the way where it won't be seen?


90% of Mongolia, 80% of Siberia, 75% of Australia?

Unfortunately it is more than likely somewhere close to where they are looking in the South China Sea.

[torquewrench]

Malaysia Airlines says the aircraft had been repaired by Boeing and was certified safe to fly. They dismissed the possibility of a technical problem. JAL123 had been repaired by Boeing, and had been certified safe to fly.

Please note that I am not suggesting the idea that MH370 was lost as a result of post-repair structural failure. I do not believe there is enough information at this point to advance any hypothesis. We need more hard data. There is very little hard data at this time.

I am merely noting that there is historical precedent for an inadequate manufacturer repair leading to an in-flight structural failure, with hull loss, and with massive loss of life. It is one of many different possibilities.

[Metro man]

As the flight was a code share with China Southern might it be possible that they were the intended target if it proves to be a terrorist action ?

Not all hijackers are smart, and they wouldn't be the first people to find themselves on a different airline to which they thought they'd be flying.

[stonevalley]

This is becoming a joke were it not so tragic for victims and family.

"Looking in the West of the country" must be a mistake on the part of a reporter. What was probably intended to be a reference to looking to the West of the presumed crash site has been distorted.

There is no reason to look to the western side of the country at all and apart from a couple of airports there is really no place for a 777 to land and it is heavily populated

Don't suspect the Malaysians of a sinister cover-up. They lack the skill for that. Incompetence in most things is their strong suit.

The plane would have crossed a large area of mountainous jungle on its route over central Malaysia but I believe it was still being tracked after it crossed the coast

[CobaltBlue]

"Looking in the West of the country" must be a mistake on the part of a reporter. What was probably intended to be a reference to looking to the West of the presumed crash site has been distorted.

There is no reason to look to the western side of the country at all and apart from a couple of airports there is really no place for a 777 to land and it is heavily populated

No, I was watching the interview. The Malaysian commanding general specifically said that they had placed aircraft to look for debris off the coast of west Malaysia, and he specifically mentioned Penang.

[spongenotbob]

Over at airliners.net they seem to have found pictures of the fake Italian's and the fake Austrian's eTickets.

Some ominous things here....

- Tickets numbers sequential
- Issued by same agency on 3/6 (per airliners.net)
- Exact same fare
- Different destinations but both via KUL-PEK-AMS-(final)

http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/842775444.png
http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/842775482.png

[StormyKnight]

So to continue the conspiracy theory of a hidden agenda, since facts are a little slow...

After
2 stolen passports escalated to 4, now back to only 2
a debris field that is quite likely to be lit glasshouses on land
a possible turnback supported by military radar confirming civil radar
upcoming dusk

What's next to push this well into tomorrow?

[nliving]

Could buoy data could help locate the plane? Seems if the plane went into the sea at least some disturbance could be noted in a shallow sea. Tsunami watch systems:

National Data Buoy Center (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/)

[Colonel FOG]

It's the middle of the afternoon over here, and I am not about to shut off my systems to go to sleep. Taiwan lost a young lady, her husband, and two children on one of "my" Boeing aircraft, and the FBI called me at 6AM looking for any info I might have.

I am sending the investigators to the Leshan (Taiwan) PAVE PAWS site to see which areas of an expanded SAR their tracking might have already ruled out.

[camel]

If the a/c was turned back ,would the nearest 'big' airport be Penang?

This might explain why the search area is now including seas west of Penang, which is heading towards indonesian airspace.over 200 miles west of the last reported radar contact.

[p.j.m]

2 stolen passports escalated to 4, now back to only 2

I think that "clarification" was just that only 2 passports were identified as stolen. Likely they may well still be investigating 4 passengers onboard.

[p.j.m]

With the eyes of the world and the pressure from the media on MH

There truth will come out soon.

MISSING MH370: Chinese rescue force reaches suspected site of missing plane - Latest - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-chinese-rescue-force-reaches-suspected-site-of-missing-plane-1.504164?ModPagespeed=noscript)

BEIJING: A Chinese coast guard vessel has entered the waters around the suspected site of the missing Malaysian plane to carry out a rescue mission.

As of 11:30 am on Sunday, the vessel "China Coast Guard 3411" has entered the area and was about 45 nautical miles from where the plane was believed to be when it lost contact with ground control, according to China's State Oceanic Administration.

It is expected to reach the spot at about 2 pm on Sunday.

All crew members on board the ship are now working in six teams in charge of lookout, search, communication, medical treatment, motorboat rescue and logistic supplies, according to the administration.

[stonevalley]

Quote:
Don't suspect the Malaysians of a sinister cover-up. They lack the skill for that. Incompetence in most things is their strong suit.
nice to bring bigotry into the thread.




Nope not bigotry. Personal experience of working with Malaysian government's public and private companies and organisations for many years.

Not having a go at the people mate just the bureaucrats and politicians.

[SOPS]

Well, I'm impressed how someone can find the tickets. I wonder if those running the investigation have done the same. I know we are building conspiracy theories, but two guys with stolen passports just happen to buy a ticket, one after the other, at the same place on the same day. Coincidence? I don't think so.

[StormyKnight]

07:06 GMT - Military activity - Colleague Catherine Barton reports considerable activity at the Vietnamese military airport at Ho Chi Minh City, where an AFP news team is waiting to board a military AN26 plane.
An amphibious helicopter transfered from Vietnam's deep sea port Cam Ranh for the search and rescue mission, has just landed, while soldiers can be seen moving equipment. The AN26 the team are waiting to get on is also full of life jackets and other rescue equipment

Malaysia Airlines investigation: Live Report (http://my.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-airlines-investigation-live-report-042933746.html)

[Innaflap]

Western Malaysia - the land mass where KL is located.

Eastern Malaysia - the part in Borneo

The plane would have crossed over the east coast of Western Malaysia

[ColB]

The two etickets can't be verified. That's the problem, too many people these days like to manufacture stories for their own sick pleasure.

[p.j.m]

Has he never heard about the unexplained loss of aircraft in the Bermuda triangle? Could this not be something similar?

You've got to wonder how Subang Air Traffic Control can lose contact 36 hours ago, and only just now SAR vessels are making their way to site?

Did Subang Air Traffic Control actually raise any alarms when they lost contact?

[Stanley11]

Don't suspect the Malaysians of a sinister cover-up. They lack the skill for that. Incompetence in most things is their strong suit.

There was a case of the murder of a mongolian lady who was kidnapped and blown to bits by 'hired men' who turned out to be some shadowy part of the armed services. The case came to light because of a cab driver who made a police report because he wasn't paid for the trip as she was kidnapped. The kidnappers' get away vehicle had govt plates. Somehow the agencies didn't get the memo to cover up this neatly and it took a minister to effectively (or not) sweep the entire matter under the rug. The story centered about some submarine deal which had some pay offs but someone (mongolian lady) didn't receive their cut.

Scorpene?s Sting: Malaysia?s Bribery & Murder Scandal (http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/scorpenes-sting-liberation-publishes-expose-re-malaysias-bribery-murder-scandal-05347/)

I understand that some members are upset about going off track but this is a discussion thread and we are sharing opinions and news. No wild allegations. I am certainly not suggesting that the loss of MH370 is linked to any internal affairs. Just sharing some news here.

[ETOPS]

I have 4000 hours in command on the 772 and a thought came to me overnight. What is this airlines policy regarding the MEC hatch?

[p.j.m]

2. Time of 0240 is confusing me, as time of last radar contact, surely there would be ATC SOP for missing flights over 10 mins in this area?

Anyone with an explanation, thanks.

2.40 is Vietnam time - 1 hour behind KL & Beijing time.

[dk88]

The two etickets can't be verified. That's the problem, too many people these days like to manufacture stories for their own sick pleasure.


You can easily check the mentioned E-Ticket numbers.

[Two_dogs]

Post 721 with a link to the tickets.

Some ominous things here....

- Tickets numbers sequential
- Issued by same agency on 3/6 (per airliners.net)
- Exact same fare
- Different destinations but both via KUL-PEK-AMS-(final)Also is the red stamp part of the original ticket, or is it stamped on later...
It is in the exact same place on both 'tickets'. bogus?

[Espada III]

Surely that time should read 12.40 not 2.40 if Vietnam is one hour behind KL?

[ColB]

You can easily check the mentioned E-Ticket numbers

Agreed. Not a problem for authorities. Just a problem for the masses of home detectives and places like this and the media where photoshops propagate over time into truth.

[rodondo4]

That would make it 0040 not 0240. Surely.

Vietnam +7UTC

Malaysia +8UTC

[porterhouse]

2.40 is Vietnam time - 1 hour behind KL
2.40 is KL time, 1 hour ahead of Vietnam time (1:40)

[camel]

Rodondo


news conference said :

last radar contact was around 1.30 am

this was reported to the airline around 2.40 am

[p.j.m]

Surely that time should read 12.40 not 2.40 if Vietnam is one hour behind KL?


oops yes you are correct.

[Propolis]

According to this report no explosion has been detected which would rule out at least the bomb theory if the source is correct

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?hp&_r=0

And for the guys who believe in a sinister hijacking plot flying below radar to Dr No island or another movie plot.... How do you escape from PSR detection between FL350 and near surface? I don't think there is a stealth version of 772 and getting from FL350 to a height where PSR does not detect you should take quite some time if you want to keep. Airframe intact.

[p.j.m]

Family of Chinese passenger missing on flight MH370 makes contact with his phone - News - World - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video (http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_09/Family-of-Chinese-passenger-missing-on-flight-MH370-makes-contact-with-his-phone-1046/)

The family of a Chinese passenger missing on flight MH370 have made contact with his mobile phone and Malaysian authorities are trying to use the signal to locate the plane, Chinese state television reported on Sunday.

[500N]

Pjm

If I turn off my phone and am international, it sounds like you are connecting to it when you dial the number so it still rings to the caller.

[StormyKnight]

Some more news...
07:59 GMT - Another passport - Chinese state media is reporting that a Chinese person whose passport number is among those listed for passengers aboard the missing flight did not in fact board the plane.
According to the Xinhua news agency the person, a resident of Fujian province in eastern China, has no departure record and is still in Fujian.
Although the passport number is the same, the name listed by Malaysia Airlines for the passenger is, it says, adding the owner says he has never lost his passport.

07:47 GMT - Expanded search - Malaysian authorities have expanded their search for wreckage to the country's west coast, and asked for help from Indonesia. Searches so far had concentrated on waters to the country's east, in the South China Sea.

Malaysia Airlines investigation: Live Report (http://my.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-airlines-investigation-live-report-042933746.html)

[paddy_22002]

One 777 has been lost to a cockpit fire on the ground.
Remember the Swissair MD-11 near Halifax?

[p.j.m]

If I turn off my phone and am international, it sounds like you are connecting to it when you dial the number so it still rings to the caller.

The article may be poorly worded, but if indeed the family made contact with their son (via his mobile) and Malaysian authorities are investigating the signals location its a breakthrough!

[StormyKnight]

Pjm
If I turn off my phone and am international, it sounds like you are connecting to it when you dial the number so it still rings to the caller.

Probably the same reason there is (or was) a dial tone so the person dialling doesn't just get "nothing" until they become connected which would make them think that they have been disconnected whilst waiting for the international exchanges to actually find the phone & then make the connection.

[SOPS]

Paddy, can you please fill us in on the 777 that was lost to a cockpit fire? I don't recall that happening.

[ETOPS]

My post above (#733) was possibly too cryptic - does MH lock their MEC access hatch or could someone have gained entry?

[SOPS]

On our 777s at least, you can't lock it. That is actually a good thought.

[wiggy]

Cockpit fire details here:

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20110729-0 (http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20110729-0)

[rog747]

i think BA had a 777 damaged on the ground - refuelling fire at Denver? 2001?

[WYOMINGPILOT]

Terrorism seeming more and more a possibility.


Air force chief: Malaysia jet may have turned back (http://news.yahoo.com/air-force-chief-malaysia-jet-may-turned-back-060410114.html)


Greg Barton, a professor of international politics at Australia's Monash University and a terrorism expert, said if the disaster was the result of terrorism, there is no obvious suspect. If it was terrorism, Barton expected China would be quick to blame separatists from the ethnic Uighur minority, as authorities did recently when 29 people were killed in knife attacks at a train station in the southern city of Kunming.
"If a group like that is behind it, then suddenly they've got a capacity that we didn't know they had before, they've executed it very well — that's very scary," Barton told AP.

[fendant]

Obviously Malaysian Airline is still unwilling to tell what they really know ( or they still don't have a clue what honest and timelycommunication is ). Why did they insist for more than 20 hours that the flight is "just without communication".

These story with the 2 passports is another BIG mystery.
Both PAX ( pretend to be ) are European and the names are European.
So the Pax must look European!
Did MH do a passport check and name verification at check-in /boarding ?

Normally one-way tickets raise questions at security ( SSSS in the US , in Europe they are more discreet ), why not at MH ?
In AMS the pax would have to do the Schengen Area immigration ( where stolen passports would definitely flag up ), did they never intend to continue beyond PEK ?

For China Austrians and Italians do need a Visa for China, so they would not be able to "disappear" in Beijing. Why didn't they take the direct flight from KUL to AMS ?

Too many open questions, zero trust in MH communication

[alainthailande]

Sorry to add extra noise to the thread and even more if it's a repeat but I haven't seen this mentioned yet. Re: the two e-tickets: price is quoted in Thai Bahts (and it's within a likely price range). This would mean that they've been bought from a thai travel agent. Another connection to Thailand.
Not that I'm buying these unlikely copies as genuine information, though.

[SOPS]

Well, it will be getting dark soon, and still no wreckage found. I am really starting to think that perhaps there is no wreckage, or if there is wreckage, it's a long way from where they are looking.

[Passagiata]

This is a scan of the ticket of the person travelling on the stolen Italian ticket.
Trip booked was KUL-PEK-AMS
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiRSj1cCUAApHMg.png:large

It's most likely faked. The accompanying supposed ticket scan, for the other "stolen passport" passenger, has its stamp in exactly the same place - wouldn't happen.

[StormyKnight]

Sorry to add extra noise to the thread and even more if it's a repeat but I haven't seen this mentioned yet. Re: the two e-tickets: price is quoted in Thai Bahts (and it's within a likely price range). This would mean that they've been bought from a thai travel agent. Another connection to Thailand.
Not that I'm buying these unlikely copies as genuine information, though.

Also the RED stamp on them is identically positioned....maybe its stamped by a mechanical system or printed rather than by hand, but if by hand, then the conclusion is that they are fake.

[SV_741_India_Bravo]

Obviously Malaysian Airline is still unwilling to tell what they really know ( or they still don't have a clue what honest and timelycommunication is ). Why did they insist for more than 20 hours that the flight is "just without communication".

Asian culture.

These story with the 2 passports is another BIG mystery.
Both PAX ( pretend to be ) are European and the names are European.
So the Pax must look European!

Not necessarily. With thousands of immigrants over the decades hardly anyone looks european anymore. Or are you saying all europeans are white, blond and blue eyed? never been to manchester eh?


Did MH do a passport check and name verification at check-in /boarding ?

In my experience, in most of the world airlines dont check passports and name verify other than a formality. Plus, dont people change a bit from the day their passport pictures are taken?
The real question is why didnt two stolen passports get flagged. This indicates an extremely serious security flaw and perhaps it has been exploited before being blocked. Extremely scary thought.

Normally one-way tickets raise questions at security ( SSSS in the US , in Europe they are more discreet ), why not at MH ?

Outside your little cocoon of the US and EU (where a world also exists), this is a common case. Add the fact that a tourism driven country like Malaysia sees many backpackers/tourists with one way tickets or changing travel plans constantly.


In AMS the pax would have to do the Schengen Area immigration ( where stolen passports would definitely flag up ), did they never intend to continue beyond PEK ?

Good question.

For China Austrians and Italians do need a Visa for China, so they would not be able to "disappear" in Beijing. Why didn't they take the direct flight from KUL to AMS ?

As has been mentioned about a dozen times before, you dont need a visa if you are transiting thru China for upto 72 hours. Please stop beating a dead horse now.

Why they didnt take a direct flight? Amazing that you are accusing someone of a malicious act then asking logical questions about their actions? Are you serious?

Too many open questions, zero trust in MH communication

They arent forcing you to listen to them. In this age of information, the truth will come out, you are free to listen to another source.

[APLFLIGHT]

Aircraft searching have discovered a suspicious object floating in the sea, Tho Chu island 100km south southwest.

Phát hi?n v?t th? kh? nghi cách ??o Th? Chu 100km - Tuoi Tre Mobile (http://m.tuoitre.vn/tin-tuc/Chinh-tri-Xa-hoi/Chinh-tri-Xa-hoi/1059655102,Phat-hien-vat-the-kha-nghi-cach-dao-Tho-Chu-100km.ttm)

[threemiles]

The e-ticket pictures for the two stolen passport travellers are not from genuine tickets, it is just a printout from some reservation system. BUT IT DOES NOT MATTER.

The e-tickets with those ticket numbers are stored in the global reservation database and can be retrieved by anyone from WWW (yes anyone). The type of printout is not relevant.

The tickets were issued in Pattaya.

Flying on a stolen passport to the EU is very naive. On arrival on a CSZ flight in Amsterdam the passports would have been identified and the holders be retained.

Appears to me the two travellers never intended to get to AMS.

[India Four Two]

I live in Saigon, but didn't hear about this until late Saturday afternoon, about 15 hours after the loss of contact. It is now Sunday afternoon and I am in my office and was able to look up some facts.

From Ca Mau, the southern most tip of Vietnam, to coast of Malaysia is about 250 nm. Apart from the 12nm territorial waters adjacent to each coast, the remaining distance is International Waters, although still within the Exclusive Economic Zone of either Malaysia or Vietnam. So the navies of both countries actively patrol these waters.

There are many oil and gas production platforms in the area, mostly on the Malaysian side of the EEZ border (about 120 nm from Ca Mau), but they would not be maintaining active lookouts. There are currently no active drilling rigs but there are probably oilfield supply vessels in the area, who might have seen something.

There will be lots of small (~10 m) wooden fishing boats actively fishing for squid at night time. Very few of them have radios and given the extremely bright lights they use, there would have to have been a fireball in the sky, for the crews to have a chance of seeing anything.

This area is geographically part of the South China Sea (although the Vietnamese never use that term - here it is the Eastern Sea), but it is more often referred to as the Gulf of Thailand, certainly in the oil industry.

There is a very naive statement on the BBC website:
Territorial disputes over the South China Sea were set aside temporarily as China dispatched two maritime rescue ships and the Philippines deployed three air force planes and three navy patrol ships.

What is happening here is that China is taking advantage of the situation to remind home audiences that the government considers the South China Sea to be "their" sea, even though in this case, the search area is well to the west of the famous "nine-dash line" that the Chinese use to base their claim (China?s infamous ?9 dash line? map | (http://energeopolitics.com/2012/11/26/chinas-infamous-9-dash-line-map/)). They are probably also hoping for a wonderful PR coup if one of their vessels finds the wreckage or participates in the recovery operations.

The Chinese say they have "dispatched" some vessels to the scene. It is highly unlikely that they are being sent from the mainland, which is nearly a 1000 miles away. It is more likely that they have diverted these vessels from routine patrol in the South China Sea, where they often harass non-Chinese fishing and oil exploration vessels.

I have participated in Emergency Response Team drills and am very familiar with the concept of an On Scene Commander. I wonder who will assume that role in this situation? A vessel from the country in whose EEC the scene is located or the one with the biggest guns?

[Soul planet]

— A catastrophic structural failure of the airframe or its Rolls-Royce Trent 800 engines. Most aircraft are made of aluminium which is susceptible to corrosion over time, especially in areas of high humidity. But given the plane’s long history and impressive safety record, experts suggest this is unlikely.

More of a threat to the plane’s integrity is the constant pressurisation and depressurisation of the cabin for takeoff and landing. In April 2011, a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 made an emergency landing shortly after takeoff from Phoenix after the plane’s fuselage ruptured, causing a 5-foot tear. The plane, with 118 people on board, landed safely. But such a rupture is less likely in this case. Airlines fly the 777 on longer distances, with many fewer takeoffs and landings, putting less stress on the airframe.

“It’s not like this was Southwest Airlines doing 10 flights a day,” Hamilton said. “There’s nothing to suggest there would be any fatigue issues.”



— Bad weather. Planes are designed to fly through most severe storms. However, in June 2009, an Air France flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris crashed during a bad storm over the Atlantic Ocean. Ice built up on the Airbus A330’s airspeed indicators, giving false readings. That, and bad decisions by the pilots, led the plane into a stall causing it to plummet into the sea. All 228 passengers and crew aboard died. The pilots never radioed for help.

In the case of yesterday’s Malaysia Airlines flight, all indications show that there were clear skies.



— Pilot disorientation. Mr Curtis said that the pilots could have taken the plane off autopilot and somehow went off course and didn’t realise it until it was too late. The plane could have flown for another five or six hours from its point of last contact, putting it up to 3,000 miles away. This is unlikely given that the plane probably would have been picked up by radar somewhere. But it’s too early to eliminate it as a possibility.



— Failure of both engines. In January 2008, a British Airways 777 crashed about 1,000 feet short of the runway at London’s Heathrow Airport. As the plane was coming in to land, the engines lost thrust because of ice buildup in the fuel system. There were no fatalities.

Loss of both engines is possible in this case, but Hamilton said the plane could glide for up to 20 minutes, giving pilots plenty of time to make an emergency call. When a US Airways A320 lost both of its engines in January 2009 after taking off from LaGuardia Airport in New York it was at a much lower elevation. But Capt. Chesley B “Sully” Sullenberger still had plenty of communications with air traffic controllers before ending the six-minute flight in the Hudson River.



— A bomb. Several planes have been brought down including Pan Am Flight 103 between London and New York in December 1988. There was also an Air India flight in June 1985 between Montreal and London and a plane in September 1989 flown by French airline Union des Transports Ariens which blew up over the Sahara.



— Hijacking. A traditional hijacking seems unlikely given that a plane’s captors typically land at an airport and have some type of demand. But a 9/11-like hijacking is possible, with terrorists forcing the plane into the ocean.



— Pilot suicide. There were two large jet crashes in the late 1990s — a SilkAir flight and an EgyptAir flight— that are believed to have been caused by pilots deliberately crashing the planes. Government crash investigators never formally declared the crashes suicides but both are widely acknowledged by crash experts to have been caused by deliberate pilot actions.



— Accidental shoot-down by some country’s military. In July 1988, the United States Navy missile cruiser USS Vincennes accidently shot down an Iran Air flight, killing all 290 passengers and crew. In September 1983, a Korean Air Lines flight was shot down by a Russian fighter jet.

[snowfalcon2]

The two AN-26 planes have landed after their morning flight. At 1440 local time, they reported "suspicious items floating in the sea" at N083621 E1031330. An Mi-171 helicopter and surface ships have been directed there for a closer look, estimated to reach there at 1900 local (UTC+7).

[This is approx 105 NM in direction 348 degrees from MH370's last known position near waypoint IGARI, as reported by FR24. It's approx 41 NM SSW from the Tho Chu island. The observation is approx 70 NM due north from the oil slick and smoke reported yesterday].

Since these sightings are in Vietnamese FIR, the authorities are preparing for the additional responsibilities that follow if MH370 is found in that area.

Other planes including a Singaporean C150 (?) plane have also identified traces or slicks on the sea but "nothing special". Many fishing vessels are said to operate in the area.

Disclaimer: From a Google translation (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=vi&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdantri.com.vn%2F).


EDIT: Corrections to the coordinates and the Singaporean info in post #736 further below.

[newfoundglory]

Flying on a stolen passport to the EU is very naive. On arrival on a CSZ flight in Amsterdam the passports would have been identified and the holders be retained.

Appears to me the two travellers never intended to get to AMS.
Exactly. Presumably the onward ticket was required to board and fly visa-free on the Beijing leg using a european passport. But oh dear something has gone dreadfully wrong here, whatever that may be.

[1stspotter]

Fake passports carried by passengers are used for various illegal activities including drug smuggling. There are various reasons why those two never wanted to go to Amsterdam.

[fft100]

Just cant believe some of the questions/accusations being asked/made here.


1. Transit passengers don't need a visa to pass through China.


2. Why go via anywhere else to go from KUL to AMS ? Obviously only asked by someone who has never used an online booking system. Most of the cheapest prices (and in some cases, a lot cheaper) are via 3rd countries.


3. Many Europeans don't look like Europeans looked 50 years ago. 50 years of mass immigration means that telling nationality from looking at someone doesn't work anymore.


What hasn't been mentioned for a while is the report that 5 PAX had their luggage removed before take off as they didn't show. Seems a very high number, esp. in conjunction with the 2 stolen passports.

[VH-Cheer Up]

If they held other credentials, they could have reboarded in PEK using those identities on a new ticket.

[onetrack]

NY Times is reporting that the "eye-in-the-sky" U.S. military satellites, that pick up bright flashes, or unexplained bright lights, in the upper levels of the atmosphere, have not picked up any such flashes in the region that MH370 disappeared - thus making it somewhat less likely there has been a terrorist bomb and accompanying explosion.

For the speculator who suggested the aircraft has been hijacked, and is currently sitting in the Australian Outback, I suggest you Google "Jindalee" and "JORN". JORN can pick up strange aircraft (OR even boating) movements within 3000kms of the installation.

[ETOPS]

Just been going over the '77 tech manual - access to the MEC would allow you to switch off all comms. Left ,right and centre VHF,L & R HF, Txpndr 1 & 2 and Satcom. Thus no ACARS transmission (uses Centre VHF) and no ADS-B (uses selected txpdr) CPDLC -if fitted - disabled due no Satcom.

You would also have access to the power centres thus gaining you entry to the flight deck. (No I'm not going to spell that out)

So you can take command, switch off the nav lights descend 500 feet and away you go.......

[Ares]

As much as it is current to blame terrorism on everything, I don't believe this is the explanation here for one reason: where is the claim of responsibility? Not much point in committing an act of terror (after all, you do so fro a political aim) if nobody knows you did it.

[ETOPS]

Not much point in committing an act of terror (after all, you do so fro a political aim) if nobody knows you did it.


Unless this isn't terrorism - what was on the cargo manifest?

[Mr Optimistic]

ACARS. Not known to the general public but surely known to the authorities. These plus primary skin paints ought at least to eliminate some outcomes.

[SOPS]

Beat me by one minute ETOPS. Was just thinking the same thing, what was in the cargo that someone might have wanted.

[snowfalcon2]

Some additional information from the Thanh Nien :

- Seems my coordinates for the "suspicious objects" were slightly off, should be E082136 N 1031330. The map below has it plotted:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/19786702/MH370/thanhinien_0309%20ban-do-2.jpg

- The sighting was presumably done by a Singaporean aircraft at 1500 local time (the map even says C130 Singapore)

- There is a report of a "10 meter long fragment" discovered by a USAF aircraft, but the coordinates N664825 E1032921 can't be correct.

- A DHC-6 Twin Otter on floats has joined the Vietnamese search effort. [Could be quite useful if the sea state allows.]

- A forward rescue base is being set up at Phu Quoc island, some 100 NM NNE of the latest sighting and 210 NM NNE of the last known posiion of MH370. Phu Quoc has a regional airport with an approx 1200 metres runway.

[ruprecht]

"Australia sending two P3C Orions from Darwin to Malaysia to aid with the search for missing Malaysian flight MH370"

Good luck boys (and girls)!

[hogey74]

Irrespective of the cause, the aircraft broke up, hit the water and I imagine that the end came quickly for those on board, even if only via time of useful consciousness at that height. In the absence of facts, it's natural for people to want to talk about it - particularly those with an interest in aviation who don't have people willing to discuss it with them in real life. I'm happy to hear it, even if some aren't. It's an upsetting situation so some will want to share, some need to bite. The lack of information is simply due to the lack of communication in that part of the world. It's not like TWA 800 where multiple crews saw the fireball. Facts will emerge at a slower rate than that and it may be that surprisingly salient information from witnesses is yet to emerge. AF447 was a surprise to everyone and a reminder to keep an open mind.

[Capn Bloggs]

As much as it is current to blame terrorism on everything, I don't believe this is the explanation here for one reason: where is the claim of responsibility? Not much point in committing an act of terror (after all, you do so fro a political aim) if nobody knows you did it.
That's terrorism for you. Terrorise us/the world for a few days, not knowing WTF happened, and then claim responsiblity. If they'd claimed immediately, the news would probably be back about Ukraine by now.

[StormyKnight]

I wonder if they can continue working into the night?

I suspect they could, considering they will be hunting for the "pinger" signal which is not daylight dependant...
I also guess they would need 2 flight crews (at least) per aircraft, 1 to transport over there & 1 to start the search. Is this how this sort of mission would work?

[Artie Fufkin]

As much as it is current to blame terrorism on everything, I don't believe this is the explanation here for one reason: where is the claim of responsibility? Not much point in committing an act of terror (after all, you do so fro a political aim) if nobody knows you did it.


9/11, Lockerbie...

[blaggerman]

This is a scan of the ticket of the person travelling on the stolen Italian ticket.
Trip booked was KUL-PEK-AMS
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiRSj1cCUAApHMg.png:large
It's most likely faked. The accompanying supposed ticket scan, for the other "stolen passport" passenger, has its stamp in exactly the same place - wouldn't happen.It doesn't require Sherlock Holmes to confirm that it is indeed legitimate. ;)

[CodyBlade]

Exactly,, 911 hasn't been claimed by anyone..

[p.j.m]

- Seems my coordinates for the "suspicious objects" were slightly off, should be E082136 N 1031330.

not much in it

[ETOPS]

POM PAX

You misunderstand - aircraft was at 35,000 feet. Descend 500 gets you to 34,500 thus you are flying between the normal ATC levels thus unlikely to hit anything..

[Livesinafield]

See, debris is now being spotted floating on the surface.... Can we please leave this crazy hijack and landed at a remote strip alone now?

[flypy]

Some of you think that people are just glued to radarscopes watching the paint of every aircraft don't you. Just because someone wasn't watching it at the time doesn't mean surveillance data doesn't exist.

Most modern and even semi-modern ATS systems are able to store substantial amounts of surveillance (ADS/SSR/PSR) data and replay. In addition, raw feeds from the radar (PSR/SSR) are usually "processed" to improve accuracy and reliability and may actually show more than a controller could see.

And to those who said "one primary paint is all you'd need to know where the plane is" you obviously have never actually been inside any kind of area control room or watched the screen long enough.

Subject to surveillance coverage, there will be much more data available than on one of those joke websites run by rampant aerosexuals in their pyjamas.

[jmmilner]

I wonder if they can continue working into the night?

Best time to hunt submarines, the P3C's primary mission, is at night, when they come closer to the surface for communications and, for the non-nuclear boats, to charge their batteries. Radar, MAD, IR scanners, and sonobouys al work fine in the dark but the Mark 1 eyeball is a bit limited even if they have NV goggles.

[parabellum]

Someone earlier, (Very ex BA?), mentioned a darkened cabin and crew in their bunks. It is only a six hour flight, highly unlikely the cabin crew would have anytime for bunk rest, especially in the premium cabin(s) where hijackers tend to sit.


So much information has been given out to the general public about transponders, the various emergency codes etc. that any hijacker these days will, on gaining access to the flight deck, almost certainly switch it off.


MAS seem an unlikely target for a hijacking.

[lapp]

For a passport to be stolen and picked up by Customs, it has to be REPORTED AS STOLEN first. The Italian one was, but maybe the others weren't reported stolen.


Beside that passports are checked by Imigration, not Customs, you may be surprised to learn that there is no global database of stolen/lost/revoked passports.

[ruprecht]

"I suspect they could, considering they will be hunting for the "pinger" signal which is not daylight dependant...
I also guess they would need 2 flight crews (at least) per aircraft, 1 to transport over there & 1 to start the search. Is this how this sort of mission would work?"

Most likely daylight missions between 2000 to 4000 feet, radar flood the area for debris, all visual stations manned.

[Ida down]

Livesinafield. Depends on who you are listening to. According to CNN the report of debris is false. And this has been going on all day. It would appear nobody has a clue at this stage.

[OPENDOOR]

From the South China Morning Post;

Agree - you won't see debris from 11,000m, but you may see city lights.
Don't think the plane crashed at all. Think it was hijacked by Xinjiang separatists. New flight plan to Hotan airport. Strange that K.L. -> Hotan is exactly the same distance +/- 50km as K.L. -> Beijing. Hijackers' jettisoned fuel to make it look like a crash to direct rescuers to the wrong place.
Classic case of misdirection. They could have easily turned off the transponders, and it being night time, no tracking equipment (from say satellites) would have 'eye's' on the plane.
China's 1st failed hijacking took place at Hotan airport back in 2012. Plenty of opportunity how to resolve what went wrong from hijackers point of view.
In that case the passengers successfully overpowered the hijackers. In this case that might have gone wrong.
Anonymous Pilot mentioned background distress at 1.30am when the Vietnamese ATC asked him to contact the pilots on local frequencies.
Now 4 suspects have been identified (the right number of hijackers required to take over a plane of that size).
(thoughts).

[chrisms86]

Folks are getting out ahead of their skis with the terrorism talk.

Right now we have a missing aircraft and [edited still no debris sightings]

Being familiar with that part of the world there are a myriad of reasons you might want to fly to China on a fake passport. I have not seen it been established that 5 is a particularly odd number; after all the folks who are the authorities on this subject apparently don't do a very good job.

If I can engage in some broader speculation myself this route does not make a lot of sense to me as a prime terrorist target. If I were a Chinese Muslim extremist isn't a domestic flight easier? And then I remind myself the only indication it might be terrorism is that there are 5 fake passports and again I fail to see the damning evidence in that.

For what it's worth a U.S. customs agent recently told me smugglers tend to travel in packs.

edited: 2 passports not 5. big deal

[Ngineer]

Can we please leave this crazy hijack and landed at a remote strip alone now?

Let people believe what they want to believe. No-one knows the facts yet.

I personally don't mind reading everyone's opinion although some are a bit out there (why anyone would want to illegally emigrate to China is beyond me, must be coming from a real $hit hole).

This will take some time to piece together before we know what happened with this flight.

[ddd]

When are they going to install a camera in the cockpit and some in the cabin that will transmit live video to a central station so that we shall be able to know exactly what happened during a crash before recovering the voice and data recorders?
This should be easy to do these days?

[threemiles]

I don't seem to recall the pilot who called mh370 on a separate frq hearing distress I the background???

MAS52 A330 was over SGN at the time (KUL-OSA).
MAS88 B777 was about 120NM north of SGN (KUL-TYO).

The guy claims he was on MAS88.

[skyrangerpro]

As much as it is current to blame terrorism on everything, I don't believe this is the explanation here for one reason: where is the claim of responsibility? Not much point in committing an act of terror (after all, you do so fro a political aim) if nobody knows you did it.

Presumably using the same reliable logic, Lockerbie could not have been a terrorist attack as no responsibility was claimed in the first 24 hours, correction, 24 years.

[robin]

When are they going to install a camera in the cockpit and some in the cabin that will transmit live video to a central station so that we shall be able to know exactly what happened during a crash before recovering the voice and data recorders?
This should be easy to do these days?

Difficult enough to agree the CVR with a time limited-tape. Live video isn't likely be be there for quite a while

[Chox Off]

@parabellum - 'MAS seem an unlikely target for a hijacking' - curious comment. Surely every airline, wherever they are, is a target. Given the international nature of airlines and the even more international makeup of the passengers these days,a hijack has all the newsworthy ingredients that the press yearn for.
Simply because an airline comes from a lesser country than some makes it no less secure. I'm not having a pop I'm genuinely curious.

[mickjoebill]

Can a radar trace depict an aircraft breaking up?

[chefrp]

That's terrorism for you. Terrorise us/the world for a few days, not knowing WTF happened, and then claim responsiblity. If they'd claimed immediately, the news would probably be back about Ukraine by now.

Exactly, we just dont know, and Asia has many issues with corrupt governments and anti government activities....that it was Malaysia airlines points to that it was not Muslim terrorists...because Malaysia is a Muslim country...and that would not make sense.