Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Feathered]

Breaking news from WSJ suggesting that new ACARS data shows the aircraft may have flown up to 5 hours toward the Indian Ocean at cruising altitude.

Meanwhile other reports state that the United States Navy is now relocating a Destroyer to the Indian Ocean for the search.

Updated March 13, 2014 8:43 p.m. ET

Communication satellites received intermittent data "pings" from a missing Malaysia Airlines jet, giving the plane's location, speed and altitude for at least five hours after it disappeared from civilian radar screens, people briefed on the investigation said Thursday.

The final satellite ping was sent from over water, at what one of these people called a "normal" cruising altitude. The people declined to say where specifically the transmission originated, adding that it was unclear why the transmissions stopped. One possibility one person cited was that the system sending them had been disabled by someone on board.

The automatic pings, or attempts to link up with satellites operated by Inmarsat PLC, occurred a number of times after Malaysia Airlines Flight 370's last verified position, these people said, indicating that at least through those hours, the Boeing Co. 777 carrying 239 people remained intact and hadn't been destroyed in a crash, act of sabotage or explosion.

Malaysian Airlines said it hadn't received any such data.

If the plane remained airborne for that entire period it could have flown more than 2,200 nautical miles from its last confirmed position over the Gulf of Thailand, these people said.

Satellites Received 'Pings' on Location, Altitude From Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 for Hours After Jet Fell Off Radar - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304185104579437573396580350?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTT opStories&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702 304185104579437573396580350.html%3Fmod%3DWSJ_hp_LEFTTopStori es)

[onetrack]

Would the "mumbled" communication between the MH370 crew and the Japan-bound B777, as the last reported contact, possibly indicate slow hypoxia?

Slow decompression leading to stealthy hypoxia seems by far, to me, the most likely event. Confused crew, gradually slipping into unconsciousness, make cockpit errors, turn off transponder accidentally, try to set return course, select wrong heading, along with incorrect reduced height setting - aircraft sets off flying steadily into the Indian Ocean until fuel exhaustion.
Many aviation people with extensive knowledge are emphatic that the transponder must have been turned off by a deliberate action.

It just happens by pure coincidence that the course the disoriented crew set, is into an area not covered by any radar, and their flight over the Malay peninsula isn't picked up by the Malaysian military, or dismissed as a radar return of no consequence.

The denials by the Malaysians are in line with what they do actually know - but the Americans know vast amounts that the Malaysians (or Chinese) don't know - and the Americans are not about to tell anyone what they do know.
One must keep in mind, it takes days to sort through logs, and decipher the right info from the vast amount of electronic noise.

Uncontrolled decompression - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontrolled_decompression#Notable_decompression_accidents_a nd_incidents)

[dmba]

https://www.mapbox.com/blog/flight-MH370-search-efforts-from-space/

[slats11]

We spend a lot of time trying to eliminate single points of failure. We do this because many years of hard won and at times bitter experience have shown that single points of failure are weaknesses, and that redundancy intrinsically makes systems much less likely to fail.

When I fly in a helicopter, I sometimes think about the various single points of failure.

There is an enormous amount of redundancy built into modern airliners, and I applaud the efforts of engineers over the years.

There is still a major single point of failure. However unpleasant, we do need to consider this. Especially with several (widely accepted) precedents involving over recent years (and not counting 9/11 here).

Clearly we are all interested in this incident. To this discussion, we all bring our past experience, professional background, and personal biases and prejudices. A balanced discussion that attempts to integrate our differences and cancel out bias is most likely to lead to the answer.

I find some of the theories with 100's of posts a bit to hard too accept, and there is no single point of failure and too many things have to line up just right. We have some event which simultaneously destroyed all forms of communication and incapacitated the pilots, but left the autopilot fine. Or we have hypoxia (either sudden or gradual onset) which also knocked out the transponder. Or we have a fireball across the sky seen from a oil rig far away, but no debris you would expect to find at the end of such an event. While some things may be conceivably possible, that does not make them plausible.

As more information slowly comes out, these theories are starting to fall down.

Against this background, I can't help wondering why the few posters speculating about a single point of failure are repeatedly deleted.

[Turkey Brain]

Notes from an average B777 pilot. I feel deeply sorry for family and friends affected by this terrible situation. I have read most posts, 2000+.

1: Depressurisation without the necessary descent.

Leading to pilot incapacition sounds very plausible. Putting your mask on then checking your mate has his or hers on wastes time, maybe 5 to 10 secs. If you then find that the oxygen is not working game over, too late to descend the aircraft, your unconscious.

I have heard aviation doctors suggest that one pilot should use his useful conscious time, maybe only 5 secs to start the plane down to min safe altitude. The other puts on his oxygen straight away. If all goes wrong with donning the oxygen mask or supply at least the plane is going down and you might regain consciousness later at a lower level and hence regain control.

If the plane did depressurise and the crew were incapacitated why did it stay at a high altitude? Possibly the autopilot was working, because it flew at a high altitude and on a relatively steady westerly heading for maybe hours, using the best guess from primary radar and ACARS 30min radio pings! This suggest that the electrics were working in some way, but no transponder signals.

Seems too much of a coincidence, autopilot ok, transponder not, aircraft depressurisation and pilots not OK. Aircraft heading about west.

2: unlawful interference.

Timing perfect, just out of normal radio range, miles from land near a change of airspace. Transponder switched off, radio silence apart from some garbled messages. Military radar think they saw an aircraft flying west at FL295. ( Can't remember but I think all the 911 aircraft turned back with transponders switched off. So it's happened before. ) Plane eventually disappears. Did the pilots fool the hijackers or were the hijackers on their own and lost. Unfortunately I can't see a successful ditching being the outcome, because of the lack of ELT's etc.

Big problem with this theory, why didn't the few passenger phones that were almost certainly on, not get a signal over Malaysia or anywhere else. Not sure anyone would plan to bring jammers on board or confiscate every phone.


3: Note on transponder use.

We don't touch the transponder when busy.

When we do select a new code we just type in the new code,
NO switching to stby. When practicing Rapid depressurisation in the SIM it's very rare to see anyone select 7700, were just too busy. We turn of the airway or away from traffic, most pilots keep an eye on nearby traffic using TCAS. Some use look down on TCAS during emergency descent, it's force of habit from normal descents.

[simon43]

Thanks. Had no idea HF ACARS would be used by an airline such as this.


I don't know whether or not they would use it - but the HF ACARS system exists in that region.....

HF voice comms is (AFAIK), commonplace for aircraft flying over ocean routes where VHF comms coverage is not available - I have listened in many times to the HF traffic for south-east Asia.

[Feathered]

HF ACARS is most often used near the poles, due to poor satellite geometry.

[cynar]

Because the CVR only captures 2? hours, we will never know what exactly happened in that cockpit at 1:30 am. Barring the remote landing-strip, all safe scenario, at least.

[LASJayhawk]

I no longer have any clue what to think... Even if you threw every box out of the EE bay, the HF's are in the back...

Can ANY 777 driver tell me what the load shedding is for things the communicate with the ground???

[RatherBeFlying]

It seems the US can track cellphones from drones, likely based in Diego Garcia, and occasionally dispatches a Hellfire to a target identified from a drone and/or satellite.

Perhaps a number of cellphone pings were picked up and associated with the errant flight.

We can expect that any information derived from such activities will be carefully sanitised.

The destroyer sent out on the track most likely has at least one helicopter equipped for searching the ocean surface and underneath.

[dmba]

On CNN it has been suggested that whoever turned everything off / whatever disabled everything failed only on the ACARS system. In which circumstances could the only remaining system be ACARS after a genuine accident?

After which we are now being told the plane flew in a different direction for some time.

[tlbrown350]

Once the P-8A gets on station in the Indian Ocean I hope we get answers quickly. It sounds to me U.S officials have more info than we know after receiving the raw radar returns from the Malaysians.


U.S. Navy to Add P-8A Poseidon Longer-Range Plane to Search Effort - China Real Time Report - WSJ (http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/03/13/u-s-navy-to-add-longer-range-plane-to-search-effort/)

[Tim_CPL]

Pretty interesting the US Navy is sending a P-8A Poseidon to the Indian Ocean. That plane is bristling with antennaes and advanced electronics for ELEINT and SIGINT and could be a vital tool in the search for electronic signatures. Clearly the search is now electronic, not visual....

[opsmarco]

I find some of the theories with 100's of posts a bit to hard too accept, and there is no single point of failure and too many things have to line up just right.

No accident is dependent on a single point of failure. Never. It always ends up being a chain of events. Holes end up aligning themselves with each other, and the worse happens. If they ever find them, and I hope they will, for all the families sakes, you'll see. Whatever happened, it was a sequence of events, of actions that led to this situation.

I've been reading this thread since the beginning, and I am one of the crazy ones who go thru every single post I missed after a good night sleep, I can provide some explanations, but I won't dare to speculate on what happened. Too many variables, too many things I don't know, and too many things nobody knows.

Let's just hope, for a bit. Even if just for them to find the aircraft. Explanations will come much later...

[Ollie Onion]

Quote from US authorities:

"Boeing offers a satellite service that can receive a stream of data during flight on how the aircraft is functioning. Malaysia Airlines didn't subscribe to that service, but the plane still had the capability of connecting with the satellite and was automatically sending pings, the official said."

[alistomalibu]

Depending on the type of surface (mountains, etc.), if you are at the limit of the radar coverage, a descend could be enough to lose the VHF communication and Transponder signal with the air traffic control.

[Concorde 002]

Long time lurker, have absolutely no experience in the industry other than by association. I'm totally in awl of the expertise and knowledge of the professionals here.

I'm inclined to believe that there was a decompression as this seems to be the most logical reason for the disappearance. I have just one question that after 150 odd pages doesn't seem to have been addressed. That is if in the early stages of hypoxia and associated confusion just how easy would it be to switch off the transponder in either error or in confusion with another procedure? ie is it just a simple switch or more elaborate process?

Thanks!

[slats11]

Big problem with this theory, why didn't the few passenger phones that were almost certainly on, not get a signal over Malaysia or anywhere else.

Who has said they did not get a signal? Has anyone said that?

Some phones very likely did register with the network if they passed in range.

Passengers may have tried to use their phones if they realised there was a problem. But they may have tried to call, and voice contact would likely be fleeting. SMS is more reliable with marginal network, but I think your first instinct would be to call.

Plus passengers can use (non assisted) GPS even if no network coverage - although there likely would be no external evidence of this.

[Space Jet]

Turn a knob :)

http://www.oaviao.com/avioes/boeing/b_777/fd_b777_usa/nav/img_nav/atc.jpg

[LASJayhawk]

Concord 002. It would take turning 1 rotary switch about 90 degrees ccw. So not hard at all

[MarkJJ]

Wx radar would have been on I presume as per company SOPs, as it's non passive does any one know if that Doppler could be picked up by any one or thing looking at that bandwidth at that time?

[marconiphone]

Search Organisation
It's easy to sit back & be critical of all the various agencies presently involved with the search for the B777,
Yes, it is, very.
but to me it does appear, the Malaysian Authorities are well out of their depth. There appears to be a division of action & responsibility between both the Military & Civilian sections.
Does that surprise you?
At this stage, all of the local authorities appear to be running about , but doing little & achieving less.
How can you possibly know? A bit of subconscious disdain for the 'foreigner', methinks. Although I agree the press conferences have been pretty bad.
All this demonstrates, that the local agencies in Malayisia, have absolutely no idea of what happened to the missing 777 & where it is.
What? They don't know where the aircraft is? Quelle surprise. I think we knew that.
The Thais, Vietnamese, Singaporeans, Australians, Burmese, Americans, Chinese don't know either. But everyone has to follow up every possible lead, don't they?

[OldDutchGuy]

LAS Jayhawk: Yet, it appears that operators of the -2ER could order different avionics suites; some transponders are push-button. In that case, pushing in one button would disable the xpndr, presumably by accident or confusion.

[mrantarctica]

@Opsmarco

We're talking about low likelihood mechanical errors not human error. In such mechanistic error/systems it's always much more likely that a single problem with widespread manifestations has occurred than 2-3 unrelated problems with their own manifestations occurring simultaneously. I think this is what the OP sought to look for a single point of failure rather than numerous disparate but coincidental mechanical failures in a relatively modern and safe aircraft.

With regard to human errors - then yes, often initial errors are compounded by subsequent errors by the same or different persons due to various types of cognitive bias, inexperience and situational factors.

[GvonSprout]

As someone who in his professional capacity has been closely involved in investigations and trials of both aviation and maritime casualties, I commend (as others have) the mods for keeping this forum sane in the face of perhaps repetitive, incendiary or unhelpful posts. The breadth of expertise residing here is breathtaking and the measured and knowledgable posts on technical issues ranging from VHF coverage maps to inter connectivity of electrical systems, a/c behavior and satcoms is helpful in getting to the bottom of what is going on through rapid brainstorming and analysis (and debunking) of various theories. I have been at the centre of these storms when information is coming in thick and fast, often too fast to evaluate, and have immense sympathy for the Malaysians here - particularly when their task is made all the harder by having to chase down false leads (satellite pics) or to respond on the spot to the worlds press on the status of what turn out to be irrelevant ADs for the aircraft. So don't underestimate the value of what you're doing, and please keep it coming.
Despite all the (very harsh) criticisms of early coordination efforts it does now look as if we are reaching a point where the Malaysians are being given genuine international assistance from all directions and a picture is coming together. It's not necessarily a pretty one, but if the Americans really have (remarkably) been able to isolate the pings of this aircraft's attempts to communicate even whilst out of radio coverage, then we may soon know where it, and the poor souls on board, are.

[GarageYears]

I believe there are 3 options for the transponder control panel, all from Gables, and all have a rotary control for mode control, such that STBY is at least a 2 position turn from the normal operating position. It certainly is NOT a simple push button or toggle switch. As a current T7 pilot previously noted, no one turns the transponder to STBY in normal ops.

[kaikohe76]

Actions for Rapid / Emergency Descent

May be a few minor differences with varying aircraft types, but basically I would think.,
- Oxy Masks on.
- Transfonder 7700
- Throttles closed (A/T out)
- Turn out of airway or away from other traffic.
- Vert Speed to maintain IAS on barber's pole, initially 6000ft/min plus???
- Communicate with Cabin Crew (if possible, but may well not be an option at this time)
- Maintain this config to at least 10'000ft or MSA if higher.
- Assess situation & take appropriate action.

Possibly of course, the very nature of the problem that required a rapid descent in the first place, may well prevent all the above actions being taken in order.

[opsmarco]

@MrAntarctica

I agree. As you must agree that sometimes a technical fault with a very low probability of happening happens, and since the probability for that issue to arise, crew wasn't ready and did not respond the way they should (I'm speaking theoretically, as I said, I won't speculate on what happened here), starting a chain reaction...

But remember also something : the Boeing 777 is an amazing aircraft, we all agree on that. But if you look at the numbers, statistically, a problem that has an extremely low probability of happening on the 777, the more aircraft fly, and the longer the model is in service, the higher the probability that same issue arises...

Sorry if I wasn't clear enough, I think I better go to bed, now...

[Pitot Probe]

I cannot confirm which type of XPDR is installed in the 777 in question.

With my operator we have this one on our -200s:

http://i765.photobucket.com/albums/xx292/CX150/corel4_rsz.jpg (http://s765.photobucket.com/user/CX150/media/corel4_rsz.jpg.html)

This is the "push type" some posters are referring to.

[GarageYears]

^^^ But the mode control is rotary and two clicks from 'normal' to get to STBY

[Pitot Probe]

Actions for Rapid / Emergency Descent

May be a few minor differences with varying aircraft types, but basically I would think.,
- Oxy Masks on.
- Transfonder 7700
- Throttles closed (A/T out)
- Turn out of airway or away from other traffic.
- Vert Speed to maintain IAS on barber's pole, initially 6000ft/min plus???
- Communicate with Cabin Crew (if possible, but may well not be an option at this time)
- Maintain this config to at least 10'000ft or MSA if higher.
- Assess situation & take appropriate action.


You are not even close for a B777's Emer Descent procedures!!

[INTEL101]

Actually it does not. There are now automated log scanning tools that look for anomalies which they can find in seconds if properly used.

As for why RR did not receive any reports from the ACARS that would have been because MAS did not subscribe to the service. Does'nt mean the signals were not received by the satellite and then sent to a master subscriber (er...maybe the NSA).

[Dress]

WSJ now reporting that the pings included "location, speed, and altitude."

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304185104579437573396580350?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTT opStories&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702 304185104579437573396580350.html%3Fmod%3DWSJ_hp_LEFTTopStori es

[kaikohe76]

I'm with you & all you say & thanks for your comments. I still would suggest, there does seem to be this Cvil V Military thing, on just who is in charge.
As you rightly say, nobody can say for certain at this time, what happened & where is the 777. To me, it would help if there was just one single agency, tasked with handng out the information.
Unfortunately, whatever the outcome, it will not be good I'm afraid.

[ttowne1267]

Does the B777 not have an automatic Emergency Descent Mode?

[BlueConcorde]

9M-MRL had rotary transponder as of 2008:
Photos: Boeing 777-2H6/ER Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Malaysia-Airlines/Boeing-777-2H6-ER/1988879/L/)

9M-MRM in 2011 too:
Photo: 9M-MRM (CN: 29066) Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-2H6(ER) by A. W. Raeven - JetPhotos.Net (http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=7083621)

[rampstalker]

REALLY, how is making a comment on dropping a sonobuoy from a P8 to listen for pingers worthy of being dropped from this thread?

P8 can drop sonor buoys or hydrophones and one is being sent to look/listen in the indian ocean?


comment pasted above from an earlier thread.
well to be honest they may be doing just that as well as the use of dumking sonar.

Only time will tell just what the pros are up to out there, but rest assured they will not have left any stones unturned or procedure possible untried.

Its all to easy for us to sit back and say they should have done this or done that or go here go there.

As for the passing of info to the media.
Lets just take a short breath here.
What if this situation was the result of a security lapse or its tied to an act of terror then of course the powers that be would not want to pass on all the info that they may have to hand as it may have an effect on possible actions they have or are planning. Untill the dust settles we wont know all the facts we can only continue to speculate.
However from where I am sat nice and cozy in China reading the threads and watching BBC and CNN, I can see vast sums of money and effort being expended by not only Malay but from some governments close by and all in an effort to assist close this out. So hats off to them guys.

[auv-ee]

grumpyoldgeek (http://www.pprune.org/members/126369-grumpyoldgeek)

Quote:
"There is probably a significant likelihood" that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is on the bottom of the Indian Ocean, a senior U.S. official told CNN's Barbara Starr Thursday, citing information Malaysia has shared with the United States."
And I submit that there is a significant likelihood that US subs or subhunters have picked up the underwater ping from the emergency locator transmitter.

If so, expect a breakthrough in the next 12-24 hours. Unlikely. The ocean is very large, and submarines are very few. If the plane is in the Indian ocean, the pingers are likely too deep to be heard by a sub or sonobuoys unless nearly overhead. See: Pinger Range (http://www.pprune.org/tech-log/395105-af-447-search-resume-48.html#post5683946), much of which could apply to this situation.

Edit: I should have mentioned, that reliable reception of these pingers, if they are deep, requires a deep (towed) receiver. That is why the US Navy has deep-towed pinger locators, which were used (unsuccessfully) to search for AF447.

[flash8]

Anyone can turn off the transponder but nobody can turn off the telemetry. That's all you need to know about what went down

Easy access within the cabin via E11 to the SATCOM, would disable all telemetry.

But I'm still interested whether this 777 is equipped with Satphones... unlikely I guess seeing it would completely redefine the scenario.

[Pitot Probe]

^^^ But the mode control is rotary and two clicks from 'normal' to get to STBY

That picture is from FCOM1.

The normal position for the switch is TA/RA.
It NEVER leaves that position except when called for by the Checklist (normally following an engine failure. Then it goes from TA/RA to TA ONLY).
It is completely inconceivable to me that any 777 pilot can accidentally select standby on this type of XPDR.

Switching it to STBY will also create an TCAS advisory message on EICAS.

----

WRT Emer Descent and the XPDR:

There is no changing of the XPDR mode in ANY checklist associated with Emer Descent.
The Emer Descent checklist only calls for 7700 set.
This is normally accomplished by the PM (we are trained to do it at the same time as we transmit a MAYDAY message).
The PF will be getting the aircraft in a descent and will not touch the XPDR as he's too busy with flying.

---

Disclaimer: I do not fly 777s for MAS

[harrryw]

All Thai airports are Military Air Force bases and hence the statement that they do not have them on the peninsular is not correct.

[kands]

Given the sparse but interesting data of pings of the ACARS system but no data, - a hypothesis to explore is: could this be this is another SwissAir Flight 11 – a fire in the Main Equipment Center (MEC) underneath the cockpit? If there’s a fire a smoke detector illuminates the ‘EQUIP COOLING OVRD’ message on the cockpit EICAS.

see diagram here: http://www.skybrary.aero/images/B772_MEC_FIRE.jpg

It’s possible after seeing a message the crew began a turnback to Malaysia. But if the fire continued it could knock out communications equipment, which would explain the loss of comms, and blow out the crew oxygen bottle which could cause rapid decompression and crew hypoxia if it went off through the fuselage and/or the fire could have damaged the fly-by-wire flight controls which could explain the continued flight.

While just a hypothesis, unfortunately a 777 had a fire in this exact location – luckily for them on the ground in London Heathrow in Feb 2007. See the UK AAIB report:
http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources.cfm?file=/S2-2007%20N786UA.pdf

The report said, “…Prior to this accident the aircraft manufacturer was involved in investigating 11 in-service reports of power panel overheat events, three of which involved major damage to the panels. The affected panels were the P200 and P300, and the affected contactors were the RBTB, Auxiliary Power Breaker (APB)and the Primary External Power Contactor (PEPC).

Now imagine if the fire occurred in the air at 35,000 feet.

[mrantarctica]

@Opsmarco

I agree. As you must agree that sometimes a technical fault with a very low probability of happening happens, and since the probability for that issue to arise, crew wasn't ready and did not respond the way they should (I'm speaking theoretically, as I said, I won't speculate on what happened here), starting a chain reaction...

But remember also something : the Boeing 777 is an amazing aircraft, we all agree on that. But if you look at the numbers, statistically, a problem that has an extremely low probability of happening on the 777, the more aircraft fly, and the longer the model is in service, the higher the probability that same issue arises...


Technical faults do happen. The more times you fly, the more likely it is that something will eventually happen somewhere. I think you're alluding to a modified diluted version of the anthropic principle here - in that obviously something must have happened to the plane - in your view, possibly sequential multiple failures, hence the low likelihood is of less relevance. The trouble with this reasoning is that we don't actually know what happened to the aircraft. All we can say is that we have an a priori probability of various events occurring. When you stack unlikely events, the overall sequence becomes even more unlikely.

I agree to some extent with your chain reaction idea. In particular, if the plane is damaged and the environmental conditions change such that the crew are incapacitated then it significantly hampers their recovery efforts. However, largely these crew don't respond to crises in the same way than an unprepared individual might (i.e. not be ready etc.). A large part of their training incorporates being ready to fly broken planes insofar as I would actually say that these professional pilots are experts in flying broken planes more than unbroken ones. Obviously, the jet pilots out there can correct me on this point if I'm mistaken. But my impression is that it takes a whole lot more skill to fly a broken plane than a perfectly functioning one, and that's exactly why these experienced pro's are up in the sky not just anybody.

[mabuhay_2000]

Whatever passport you used, the airline would still need to see a valid passport, either belonging to the final destination country or with a valid visa for said country.

[mm43]

@flash8But I'm still interested whether this 777 is equipped with Satphones... The aircraft appears to have been fitted with an Inmarsat Aero L package which works through an omni-directional antenna in the global beams of the I-3 series of satellites.

Aero L is used for low speed (600 - 1200 bps) real-time, packet data comms used mainly for ATC (CPDLC) and ACARS services.

In short, no SatPhone services.

[LASJayhawk]

AFAIK: the only things I can think of witha push button type of mode select is the Collins PL4/21 with RTU's for tuning the radio or the Honeywell equivalent ( primus 800?) while quite nice in your King Air or Gulfstream, not quite the thing Boeing is in to.

[nitpicker330]

Ok sorry I stand corrected. Didn't think anyone but the USN had them yet.

[Pitot Probe]

I have a question: Can a planeload of passengers be disabled by action from the cockpit? Meaning, if the a/c becomes depressurized, overhead functioning oxygen masks would automatically drop down. Could they be prevented from doing so; could the oxygen pressure be turned off from the cockpit? (Assuming some kind of mischief up ahead desiring the silencing of passengers and their cellphones.)

No.
But the Pax will most likely run out of oxygen before the pilots do.

(I cannot give you exact numbers because of the following variables:
1. How many passengers are loaded on the aircraft and how many puts on and activates their masks.

2. Oxygen duration for the pilots is also dependant on the amount of crew (2/3/4) and the setting of their mask. 100% or not. EMER or not.)

[nliving]

My background is healthcare with no knowledge of aviation except that it takes me to nice vacation locales.

While a shortage of O2 would be a critical event, might I also suggest an increase of CO2 as an equally important factor. Thank you.

[grumpyoldgeek]

Pretty interesting the US Navy is sending a P-8A Poseidon to the Indian Ocean. That plane is bristling with antennaes and advanced electronics for ELEINT and SIGINT and could be a vital tool in the search for electronic signatures. Clearly the search is now electronic, not visual....

Or acoustic. The P-8A can carry up to 121 sonobouys.

[GTC58]

Tfor2

Pax oxygen can only be turned off on the 777 from the cockpit below 13500' cabin altitude.

[bratschewurst]

WSJ now reporting that the pings included "location, speed, and altitude.

This seems very odd. First there were pings simply to get the satellites' attention; now it's claimed the pings were sending significant data. Why would the system be designed that way? Where would it be getting the data from? And why didn't anyone seem to know that this capability existed? Wouldn't it be more logical for that data to be sent with the ACARS information rather than in an "are you there?" ping?

Possibly this is a mis-reporting of a claim that location, speed and altitude could be derived from the pings by various analytical techniques.

[mabuhay_2000]

Calling Malaysians "muppets" is ridiculous. Particularly when you have no knowledge at all of what comms gave taken place between them and the US, or any other country for that matter.

And, thus far, every leak from a so-called "reliable" source has turned out to be hogwash.

There would also be the matter of exactly when this US info, if it exists (which has still not been OFFICIALLY confirmed by the Malaysians or the US), was made available.

I simply don't buy into this theory that the Malaysians are a bunch of bumbling fools. My interactions with them, in 20+ years of living and working in SE Asia have not shown them to be bumbling fools.

If you simply don't have the right info you will not find the aircraft. It's really that simple, isn't it? They have no logical reason to prevaricate and will be painfully aware that their failure to find the aircraft is making them look bad. They'll want to find it as much as anybody else.

All the leaks from so-called "reliable" sources clearly do not help, and that's down to glory-seeking journalists who want to score the big story.

[cockpitvisit]

While a shortage of O2 would be a critical event, might I also suggest an increase of CO2 as an equally important factor. Thank you.

Not really. The lack of O2 happens due to the low atmospheric pressure after a depressurization, not due to passengers consuming all the oxygen. CO2 would take many hours to accumulate to dangerous levels, and since the plane is no longer airtight, it would be simply vented out.

[MG23]

This seems very odd. First there were pings simply to get the satellites' attention; now it's claimed the pings were sending significant data. Why would the system be designed that way?

To be honest, it could be a useful feature (e.g. the satellite could tell you were likely to leave coverage in an hour if you were near the edge of the beam and heading outward), but I also suspect it's a misunderstanding. Normally that kind of information would be sent in ADS messages over ACARS, and, if any were received, we'd have known where it went long ago.

[CommanderCYYZ]

I guess they are serving random maps/images, mine are all in the range 46000 to 48000

[Heli-phile]

it is a simple mechanical rotary knob.

[guitboy]

[Quote]:
This seems very odd. First there were pings simply to get the satellites' attention; now it's claimed the pings were sending significant data. Why would the system be designed that way? Where would it be getting the data from? And why didn't anyone seem to know that this capability existed? Wouldn't it be more logical for that data to be sent with the ACARS information rather than in an "are you there?" ping?

Possibly this is a mis-reporting of a claim that location, speed and altitude could be derived from the pings by various analytical techniques.[ End Quote]

If the pings where received by, for example 3 satellites, could they not be triangulated?

[etrang]

I simply don't buy into this theory that the Malaysians are a bunch of bumbling fools.

Mabuhay, the time line is quite clear; media reports say "the US has data indicating a 5 hour flight", then at the next investigation up-date the Malaysians say "the report is not true because we asked Rolls Royce about ACARS messages". Clearly the discussion with RR does NOT disprove the original claim which has now been repeated by White House sources. This is only one example.

[GlueBall]

It's conceivable that out of 200+ mobile and smartphones with identifiable GPS receivers some didn't get turned OFF, or weren't switched into FLIGHT mode. Assuredly, those recorded GPS satellite signals could be traced from the airplane's last known position.

[StormyKnight]

It's conceivable that out of 200+ mobile and smartphones with identifiable GPS receivers some didn't get turned OFF, or weren't switched into FLIGHT mode. Assuredly, those recorded GPS satellite signals could be traced from the airplane's last known position.

Um..A GPS receiver is just that, it only receives radio frequencies. There is no way to determine if a GPS receiver is active (its like detecting your TV or car radio is receiving a channel)

Mobile phones however transmit & receive.

[LASJayhawk]

767/777 drivers. Is normal procedure to leave the APU running or do you shut it off after start?

Still wondering about buss problems.

[GTC58]

APU is off with 2 engines running

[Mahatma Kote]

Where I come from, my understanding from very good sources is that this information is retained indefinitely.

Where I come from and where you come from are the same. The difference is I work with telephone intercept data in criminal cases.

In Australia cell-tower data is ephemeral and disappears fairly rapidly. It's called 'stored communications' and can be accessed only within a few days after the event. It's pulled from the edge switches that handle the cell-towers on an as-needs basis.

Billing information is not 'stored communications' and is kept indefinitely either under Government regulation or Telco practice. Billing information comes into existence when any call is made - even if it is free.

Malaysia and Indonesia use the same type of GSM network as Australia and probably the same manufacturer (usually Ericsson). They may have a more aggressive collecting policy on the ephemeral data, but it's more likely to be much the same as Australia.

There is another type of data called User Location Register. That's network wide and records phones registered to the network at any given time down to the cell-tower level. Again, it's not something I'm aware of that is routinely collated and stored. At least not in Australia. Roaming calls are of interest because when a phone roams to a new network the network notifies the original Telco that the phone is registered in its network. However I doubt it notifies to cell-tower level.

[Heli-phile]

APU never left on longer than it's needed.

[LASJayhawk]

Is there a service ceiling for starting the APU in the air?

[GTC58]

No service ceiling for APU

[Heli-phile]

No restriction. ETOP's aircraft are required to have APU available at all times.
What are you considering regarding APU operations on this flight? I'm intrigued!

[opsmarco]

@LASJayhawk

Don't know about the 777, but for example on the A340, according to the old FCOM I have here, if you start it in cruise, you'll have electrical power, but APU bleed is available only up to 25'000ft climbing and from 23'000ft during descent.

I'm going to check for the 777...

[GTC58]

APU bleed air max altitude is 22000' for 777

[mabuhay_2000]

But the timeline for when that information, if it exists, was made available is not clear.

The fact that the aircraft may have been pinging periodically for up yo four hours is the flight timeline, not the SAR timeline.

[marconiphone]

Malaysians 'muppets', etrang? To quote you,
'Mabuhay, the time line is quite clear; media reports say "the US has data indicating a 5 hour flight", then at the next investigation up-date the Malaysians say "the report is not true because we asked Rolls Royce about ACARS messages". Clearly the discussion with RR does NOT disprove the original claim which has now been repeated by White House sources. This is only one example.'
Yes, one example of why the Malaysians face such a challenging situation, as time and again supposedly 'reliable' sources, including sources from outside Malaysia, have proved to be misleading and contradictory. If the US 'knew' where the plane is, they would have told everyone by now and the mystery would have been resolved. None of us can know for sure, but press conferences aside, I can see no reason not to think they are doing the best job they can in the circumstances.

[GTC58]

If the information is correct that they received pings for 5 hours it might be a valid assumption that the aircraft continued until the engines flamed out. Obviously one of the scenarios could have been a successful ditching and a bunch of life rafts floating somewhere.

[LASJayhawk]

If a buss problem occurred, and took out 1 IDG, the busses tie and takes out the second. APU is off so your down to the emergency generator ( that can't carry the whole plane) and the battery powered backup...

If the event was caused by a hull breech and for some reason the pilots didn't get on O2 fast enough you would lose a lot from the load shed, and would start losing more as the radios dropped out do to low buss voltage.

I know..longshot. But just because the APU Is supposed to start at service ceiling doesn't mean this one would.

[DWS]

FROM WSJ . . ." The automatic pings, or attempts to link up with satellites operated by Inmarsat PLC, occurred a number of times after Flight 370's last verified position, the people briefed on the situation said, indicating that at least through those five hours, the Boeing Co. BA -2.04% 777 carrying 239 people remained intact and hadn't been destroyed in a crash, act of sabotage or explosion.

Malaysia Airlines said it hadn't received any such data. According to Boeing, the plane's manufacturer, the airline didn't purchase a package through Boeing to monitor its airplanes' data through the satellite system."

IMO- there is a lot of confusion re pings and data by most of the media

depending on whom you believe

1) MA did not buy the online- enroute maint package- therefore pings may only had or RR only received takeoff and climb and mayberf level off data- thus the " no data " after xxx comment

2) The simple pings may only contain altitude and speed data- triangulation by sigint or other satellites may reveal course

3) The difference in time between Acars data and turnoff of transponder may be simply due to ACARS time intervals re pinging

4) Its doubtful the Pentagon would re route a destroyer/ship AND P8 without a bit more positive info than reported

5) actions re shutoff of systems seem to be deliberate- rule out explosion

6) IF deliberate - why not fly to deepwater and dive in - no claims by any group will have greater longterm effect ( re cost $$$$$ and unknown FUD ) than simply saying ' we did it "

7) On a $$$ cost basis, the 911 was very effective and made a major change in air travel and security costs

8 ) almost any-every indication and analysis seem to indicate a deliberate action by ?????

(9) AD re corossion is a non starter as is my post about future tie in of FBW and entertainment systems PLANNED BUT NOT YET IMPLEMENTED-

JUST MHO- FWIW

[mabuhay_2000]

But human intervention is not the same thing as system failure.

From a security point of view, which is my field, preventing human intervention is whole different ballgame from making systems more reliable and less prone to failure.

The only way to stop a human intervening and doing something they shouldn't is to totally lock the human out of the equation. So the pilot would be rendered a complete spectator and would, therefore, be completely superfluous.

[Feathered]

There is no way to determine if a GPS receiver is active (its like detecting your TV or car radio is receiving a channel)

Not quite. Any receiver will also broadcast an intermediate frequency at very low power. Detecting this is how radar detector detectors work, and it is also how the television tax police in UK and France track down folks with TVs who aren't paying their TV tax. None of this helps find a GPS receiver somewhere over the ocean though. The latest news on ACARS data is quite interesting.

[XB70_Valkyrie]

If the information is correct that they received pings for 5 hours it might be a valid assumption that the aircraft continued until the engines flamed out. Obviously one of the scenarios could have been a successful ditching and a bunch of life rafts floating somewhere.

Or landed somewhere. Or ditched before the engines flamed out and floated for a while.

[perantau]

Over the course of the week, we've seen the Malaysians hold several press conferences. As we are not privy to what goes on behind the scenes to the actual SAR work, we can only draw the efficacy of their operations from these media events.

IMHO, they started the press conferences like deer caught in headlights, but are getting better. I think they have revealed what they are sure of, and were cautious with unconfirmed information at hand. Military secrecy is not unique to them, and I was suprised that earlier press conferences involved a couple of generals. If unlawful acts were considered, it is understandable that leads were not publicised straight out. They have been consistent in saying the priority is to find the plane, and I believe this is matched by what they do on the ground (well, at sea & in the air, rather).

But being in the limelight is clearly not their thing. To make matters worse, those on the podium try to communicate in English, only a second language in Malaysia. They were hesitant, clumsy and uncoordinated. And so we judge their whole operation by what we see there.

Everyone is frustrated with the lack of progress. It is all too easy to place blame as a way to vent.

[firenine]

"Seafloor event" possibly linked to MH370: Chinese researchers
2014-03-14 13:15:46

BEIJING, March 14 (Xinhua) -- Chinese researchers have detected a "seafloor event" near the waters between Malaysia and Vietnam, an area suspected to be linked with the missing Malaysian jetliner MH370, a university announced on Friday.

The event occurred at about 2:55 a.m. local time on Saturday, about one and a half hours after the plane's last definitive sighting on civilian radar.

The area, 116 km northeast from where the last contact with the Boeing plane was recorded, used to be a non-seismic region, according to a research group on seismology and physics of the earth's interior under the University of Science and Technology of China.

The seafloor event could have been caused by the plane possibly plunging into the sea, the research group said.

"Seafloor event" possibly linked to MH370: Chinese researchers - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-03/14/c_133186204.htm)

[MountainBear]

Possibly this is a mis-reporting of a claim that location, speed and altitude could be derived from the pings by various analytical techniques.It is also possible that the US Government has military capability that they do not want to talk about publicly. In other words, the data sent by Boeing is simple "I'm alive" data for non-subscribers to its service but that USA spy satellites intercept such data and store the location of the source on the fly. So Boeing doesn't know where the plane is or was but the military does, and its taken bureaucratic shuffling to get that data to the SAR people.

[mickjoebill]

One can imagine a scenario, where decompression did not occur, but comms and nav became permanently disabled and command authority in cockpit by design or circumstance was left to the autopilot. Then manual authority in the cockpit was eventually regained so there was manual input or control when it touched down/crashed in the sea.

In such a scenario, a very, very, very slim chance of the latter phase of the flight ending well enough that there are survivors currently languishing on escape slides that are not fitted with even an off the shelf $200 EPIRB.

[philipat]

In response to an earlier post, I flew in an MH 772 recently and can confirm that it was NOT fitted with a Satcom Phone system.

[Communicator]

Many smartphones include GPS functionality, but this is usually disabled to conserve power.

Presumably, there is an "NSA" function allowing the operator to turn on the GPS of a cell phone on a network.

Separately, cell phones are automatically located (by triangulation among towers) whenever they join a network cell.

[p.j.m]

The theory of MH370 continuing to fly a further 4 to 5 hours after last point of contact appears to be weakening

MAS and the Malaysian authorities are not the source of truth for these transmissions that they are denying exist.

The US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorised to discuss the situation by name, said the Boeing 777-200 wasn’t transmitting data to the satellite, but was instead sending out a signal to establish contact.


Boeing offers a satellite service that can receive a stream of data during flight on how the aircraft is functioning and relay the information to the plane’s home base. The idea is to provide information before the plane lands on whether maintenance work or repairs are needed.

Malaysia Airlines didn’t subscribe to that service, but the plane still had the capability to connect with the satellite and was automatically sending pings, the official said.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/satellite-bleep-deepens-unprecedented-malaysia-airlines-mystery/story-e6frg6so-1226854490107

[truantmuse]

Meanwhile the Chinese May have another theory;

From MalaysiaKini ( behind a paywall so I've cut and pasted)


The search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 appears to be shifting back and forth between east and west of peninsula Malaysia, with latest information from scientists in China suggesting that the plane may have triggered a seismic event when it impacted the sea some 150km off the southern tip of Vietnam.

A team of seismologists at a top China research university said they detected a slight seismic event on the sea floor between Vietnam and Malaysia on March 8 which could be a result of an impact.

"It was a non-seismic zone, therefore judging from the time and location of the event, it might be related to the missing MH370 flight," said a statement posted on the University of Science and Technology of China website.

This was also reported by the South China Morning Post.

This comes as US officials begin to set their eyes in the Indian Ocean after almost a week of futile search in the South China Sea, citing indications that the plane may have turned around after losing communication and flown on westwards for several hours.

[wiggy]

However it does not work when the cell phone moves at M.80.

If you're thinking Doppler/Doppler shift might cause problems then is it worth considering what happens to the shift when you are near the overhead of the cell phone tower?

I have evidence that it is definitely possible to receive "welcome to" text messages in the cruise at or above FL350 (remote part of the world, flying at more than M 0.80). No idea if a voice or text "out" would work and I'm not going to experiment.

[lapp]

This might apply for stationary or slow moving vehicles. However it does not work when the cell phone moves at M.80. I know for a fact a GSM cell phone will not work in a jet at cruise speed and altitude even over an area with many cell phone towers in range. Just saying.

What MK is saying is that cellphones at altitude work better when few or a single tower is in reach, because no frequency interference. There is plenty of evidence showing that cellphones work in airplanes at surpringly high altitudes. Work in the sense they register with the network not that they are useable.

[amos2]

Jimmy the con said:

"To suggest that the aircraft is currently holed up on a remote island is laughable."

I would suggest that a qualified pilot holding full back stick whilst attempting to recover from a stall...is even more laughable.

But it happened!

I figure you'll know what I'm talking about.

[freshgasflow]

I am SLF, so please forgive if question is dumb. I would like to know if TCAS screen images are recorded by flight data recorders , even though they may not trigger an alert? Is it possible that any aircraft in the region might have picked up TCAS data showing the Malaysian flight and it lies in their FDR ? I know this is clutching at straws, but at this point, we don't have much straw around.

[nitpicker330]

No.
Transponder was switched off anyway, so no other A/C would have seen it on their TCAS.

[Heli-phile]

The ELT (emergency locator transponder) not being detected suggests that:

1- Either the plane had crashed in such a remote location (I guess Indian Ocean?) that its signal is out of range.

The ELT is dual VHF (121.5mhz) and satelite encoding 406mhz. The VHF signal might be out of range in the open ocean but the 406mhz signal will be received by satellite from anywhere on the surface of the planet.

[awblain]

Network providers don't like the high-speed cell transitions from flying mobile phones. Nor do the tower antennas broadcast strongly upwards. But there's no technical reason why a signal can't be obtained aloft.

The whispering WSJ "sources", which could be "imagination" can surely suggest where these 4-hours of supposed post-disappearance signaling came from.

Ground stations will have a signal strength measure, and if you look at the power pattern of a 100-m antenna in geostationary orbit, you'll see where it could have been swept up from by any Not widely-Reknowned Organization - about a 50 mile patch.

[LiveryMan]

Jon Ostrower, Aerospace & Boeing beat reporter for The Wall Street Journal, is stating that the last ping from the missing aircraft to satellites was 5 hours after it went missing and was from over water.

He's holding firm to this claim. He says he does not know the exact location, but as that ping includes GPS, speed and alt data, he says there will be those that do know.

US is sending a ship to the Indian Ocean to search a very specific spot.

[Mimpe]

Based on the White House satellite data contribution to the discussion on the possible fate of the aircraft, perhaps deleted posts ( including my own) proposing a due west course ( ?intentionally) outside of radar coverage with a final demise in the mid or west Indian ocean ( to fuel range) might be reinstated as reasoned contributions to the discussion!.

If this search was easy to solve with conventional thinking given the existing deployed assists, it would have been.

The thesis is an intentional act by a well informed person/persons in sole control of the flight deck. The Egypt air accident of the US east coast would be a similar category event.

[LiveryMan]

The thesis is an intentional act by a well informed person/persons in sole control of the flight deck. The Egypt air accident of the US east coast would be a similar category event.


I'm slowly beginning to think the same.

Previous pilot suicides involving a simple nose dive have always been found out and published, invalidating any insurance claims the suicide was supposed to cause.

So, perhaps, just perhaps, the desperate person in this case tried to be cunning and take the plane somewhere it'll never be found, thus ensuring any insurance they took out pays up?

Just as valid a theory as all the others!

[petervee]

To enable analysis of MAS370, we should just look at facts and completely disregard subjective reports.

- 9M-MRO disapeared from radar at 35000 feet, over waypoint IGARI, at 02:40 local time (Malaysian time).
- Transponder was switched off at that point
- Plane had full load of fuel for 8 hour flight + IFR reserves to PEK (Beijing).
- plane was flying at cruise speed (.82 Mach).
- plane satcom system was pinging INMARSAT, used for CPDLC/ACARS, for about 4 hours afterwards.
- 9M-MRO had no HFDL onboard (only Malaysian A380's have HFDL); it only carried VHF ACARS and SATCOM(CPDLC).

Analysis:
- If the transponder was switched off, it was to avoid detection;

- With transponder off, SSR (secondary Radar) goes off but primary radar can still detect 9M-MRO;

- At the point of transponder turning off, plane was 35000, at IGARI, equidistant between Vietnam and Malaysia. At that altitude its signal could be seen as far as 242 miles (theoretical limit - straight

line), well within Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand;

- If 9M-MRO was trying to avoid detection, it would have to descent fast to less than 5000 feet. Even at 5000 feet, signal could be heard at 86 miles, and at 1000 feet, 38 miles (theoretical maximums);

- The width of the sea channel between Vietnam and Malaysia is 220 miles, 110 miles each from IGARI. If the plane flew at or less than 5000 feet, it would avoid primary radar detection;, if it stayed in the center of the channel;

- at 5000 feet, maximum speed of a loaded 777 is around 280 KTIAS. If the plane emitted pings then it flew 280*4, not 480 * 4, a total of 1120 miles;

- To avoid detection, it would have to stay away from land, where primary radars are located. Primary radars are mainly military. It would thus NOT fly towards the Indian ocean, since doing so would place
the flight over Thailand and Myanmar and primary radars;

- If the intent was to fly towards the Andaman sea, a different flight would have to have been chosen. But between 22:00 and 01:00 (local), more than 16 flights leave Singapore and Kuala Lumpur headed for Europe, thus it would be very difficult to take over a 777 in the midst of so many flights, flying similar tracks to European Destinations, most of them within view of each other;

- The flight path from KUL towards PEK only has MAS370, ETD around midnight with the next flight towards similar destination succeded or preceeded more than 1 hour either way, thus no other flight would witness the event visually;

- 9M-MRO would fly over the sea, towards East and then veer Northeast;

- In order to avoid detection completely, passengers cellphones would have to be collected and turned off, all of them, or a cellphone jammer turned on. Even one cellphone left on would register onto a
network thus giving the location away. Flying at 5000 feet, means that there is a good chance that a cellphone would register onto a network, if 9M-MRO flew near an island with cellphone service;

- thus 9M-MRO would have to fly towards a remote island with no cellphone service and with a runway or area to land on water;

- US Airways flight that landed onto the Hudson river tells us that a 777 or 767 can land on water;

- there are literally thousands of islands in the area (http://goo.gl/maps/xYxJ8) and most of them disputed by many countries;

- at 06:40am (02:40 plus 4 hours), there is twilight and at 07:04 sunrise, therefore plenty of light;


To get additional facts, computers of the various suspect individuals onboard would have to be analyzed for any activity (browser history, software installed). Such data can give additional information on

where the plane may have been headed.

- The CARGO manifest would have to be released to see of there was material that could be a motive.

Whoever did this, did not realize the SATCOM system was pinging, thereby giving us a clue that the plane was flying for an additional 4 hours.

Time will tell.

[220mph]

Quote:
if we ASSUME for a moment that, for example, racks E1-E4 at the MEC have been destroyed by a catastrophic event, with several electrical and other key system failures you'd have to be able to maintain trim and make pitch adjustments in a severely compromised cabin in terms pressurization.
Yep, that's why I'm struggling with the "MEC damaged,selectively and the aircraft flew for hours" scenario....

In fact I'm not really buying any mechanical/technical scenario I've heard so far ..I'm at a complete loss.

This incident shows a a 777 bus failure and fire in MEC . (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-53.html#post8368583)

Luckily the flight was on the ground and shut right engine down, and safely de-planed. Had this bus failire and subsequent MEC fire occured in flight at altitude the consequences could it seems have been catastrophic. Look at the pictures in the detailed investigation link at bottom .... seems easy to envision after the AC bus failure and fire began that it could lead to a burn thru and rapid depressurization.

In the interim the cockpit would likely have smoke, and some of all of the flight deck instruments, comms, transponder etc may have become inoperation.

I'm purely guessing that critical flight controls are on a separate bus with backup power and multiple redundancy

[fox niner]

Could the radar sweeps from the predictive wind shear system installed in the weather radar have been picked up by anyone? The system is always emitting radar beams...the PWS cannot be switched off by the crew.

[Rightbase]

Previously reported: ACARS will store messages until it can establish contact.

It tries later by sending a ping. If there is no response it tries again later.

Previously reported: it tries every half hour.

Other communications devices will have different retry times - mostly much shorter. The airwaves will be full of pings on all digital frequencies but normally only the ones that establish contact by getting a response are then followed by data.

Service assets acknowledge pings addressed to them (thereby establishing the link) and service the ensuing data.

Surveillance assets potentially record the pings, any responses and any ensuing data.

[paddylaz]

Plot thickens!!:

Military radar-tracking evidence suggests a Malaysia Airlines jetliner missing for nearly a week was deliberately flown across the Malay peninsula towards the Andaman Islands, sources familiar with the investigation told Reuters.

Two sources said an unidentified aircraft that investigators believe was Flight MH370 was following a route between navigational waypoints - indicating it was being flown by someone with aviation training - when it was last plotted on military radar off the country's northwest coast.

The last plot on the military radar's tracking suggested the plane was flying toward India's Andaman Islands, a chain of isles between the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, they said.

Waypoints are geographic locations, worked out by calculating longitude and latitude, that help pilots navigate along established air corridors.

A third source familiar with the investigation said inquiries were focusing increasingly on the theory that someone who knew how to fly a plane deliberately diverted the flight, with 239 people on board, hundreds of miles off its intended course from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

"What we can say is we are looking at sabotage, with hijack still on the cards," said that source, a senior Malaysian police official.

All three sources declined to be identified because they were not authorised to speak to the media and due to the sensitivity of the investigation.

Officials at Malaysia's Ministry of Transport, the official point of contact for information on the investigation, did not return calls seeking comment.

Malaysian police have previously said they were investigating whether any passengers or crew had personal or psychological problems that might shed light on the mystery, along with the possibility of a hijacking, sabotage or mechanical failure.

The comments by the three sources are the first clear indication that foul play is the main focus of official suspicions in the Boeing 777's disappearance.

As a result of the new evidence, the sources said, multinational search efforts were being stepped up in the Andaman Sea and also the Indian Ocean.

[onetrack]

The Chinese Xinhua news agency is now throwing up another possibility. They claim that a Chinese research group on seismology and physics of the earth's interior, detected a "sea floor event" at 2:55AM local time (doesn't say whether Vietnamese or Malaysian local time, but we'll presume Vietnamese) that threw up an "earthquake wave".
They claim it could have been MH370 hitting the sea in that spot - which spot has been claimed to be 116km NW of the last recorded location of the aircraft. The area is reputed to be normally "non-seismic".

"Seafloor event" possibly linked to MH370: Chinese researchers - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-03/14/c_133186204.htm)

My opinion? A possibility, but unlikely. After nearly 7 days of SAR work, plus wind and wave action, surely some debris would have been found in this area of the Gulf of Thailand, by fisherman at least.

There is a world earthquake map, showing earthquakes over the last 7 days - but only magnitude 4.5 and greater.
A B777 hitting the water wouldn't produce anything near a 4.5 magnitude measurement, but it would likely be recorded as a verifiable tremor.

http://earthquakestoday.info/

[Neogen]

If it was tracked to be flying towards Andaman Island, then there might be a possibility of terrorism angle. Especially in light of recent intelligence report by government of India:

Remnants of LTTE trying to make Andaman and Nicobar islands safe haven? (http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/remnants-of-ltte-trying-to-make-andaman-and-nicobar-islands-safe-haven_913415.html) :\

[EDMJ]

Military radar-tracking evidence suggests a Malaysia Airlines jetliner missing for nearly a week was deliberately flown across the Malay peninsula towards the Andaman Islands, sources familiar with the investigation told Reuters.

Two sources said an unidentified aircraft that investigators believe was Flight MH370 was following a route between navigational waypoints - indicating it was being flown by someone with aviation training - when it was last plotted on military radar off the country's northwest coast.

And no interception by the Thai (Gripen, F-16, F-5) and/or Malayan (Su-30, MiG-29, F-18, F-5) air forces? Modern jet fighters in their inventory and no corresponding surveillance/fighter control infrastructure in place? Very hard to believe...

[philipat]

The Andamans themselves would not be five hours flying time from when the aircraft stopped transmitting.

Plus, if the Americans indeed DO have all the data they claim (GPS altitude etc.) then if the Pinger is activated every 30 minutes, they must KNOW the location of the aircraft plus or minus 250 nm? Which would explain why they are sending assets to the Indian Ocean.

[onetrack]

then if the Pinger is activated every 30 minutes, they must KNOW the location of the aircraft plus or minus 250 nm?

Yep, I'm sure they do. But you're looking for a 200' x 209' aircraft in a 250NM search square - and it's in pieces, and 90% of it has sunk after 7 days. Good luck with that. :(

http://cdn.lowyat.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/exterior200_300lr.gif

[Frosch]

Why bother "kidnapping" a B777 with pax to "hide it" before "using it elsewhere"?

Much easier booking a cargo widebody, it would come to your place, pick you up and off you go.....

[mrbigbird]

If god forbid you were of 'a mind' to crash a plane into the deep blue ocean and never be found, as some have speculated here, I would suggest that you would have no need or desire to follow way points.

This indicates some other motive and could well explain what we all thought were bizarre initial claims by 'well placed and informed' experts that the plane might have been taken over to be used for some other purpose.

[Pontius Navigator]

And no interception by the Thai (Gripen, F-16, F-5) and/or Malayan (Su-30, MiG-29, F-18, F-5) air forces? Modern jet fighters in their inventory and no corresponding surveillance/fighter control infrastructure in place? Very hard to believe...

You presume a threat. If there is no assessed threat there is no reason to maintain aircraft on alert.

For instance, in Hungary, early '90s, their major air defence operations centre was not operational overnight. Their air defence aircraft were on something like 30 minutes notice as the geography made any shorter notice period unnecessary.

[philipat]

Yep, I'm sure they do. But you're looking for a 200' x 209' aircraft in a 250NM search square - and it's in pieces, and 90% of it has sunk after 7 days. Good luck with thatThey said that they also knew the flight path so that would narrow the initial search area down substantially, assuming it didn't make another U-turn just ahead of ditching.

[mrbigbird]

If the latest reports of the aircraft following waypoints turbot to be true, and there appear to be radar tracks to verify this, all thought of a decompression event can now be discarded. Well at least until the next twist.

[clayne]

And no interception by the Thai (Gripen, F-16, F-5) and/or Malayan (Su-30, MiG-29, F-18, F-5) air forces? Modern jet fighters in their inventory and no corresponding surveillance/fighter control infrastructure in place? Very hard to believe...

Not hard to believe at all. I think it's realistic to say the majority of military might out there is simply posturing first, followed by monitoring of known and active threats second. It's not exactly mid-60s Konfrontasi out there and these days it's more likely "tak apa." Same goes for Thailand and Vietnam.

[B777FD]

I've been reading this thread since page 125 and I swear I remember someone typing Nicobar or Andaman Islands. Can't find the post now.

But whatever the case, good call on that posters part.


It was thecrozier. With particular reference to Car Nicobar. VOCX, check it out on Google maps satellite. I'm not one for outlandish theories, but it does have a nice long runway. :)

[JohnPerth]

Well, following waypoints would be a means of minimising the chances of military forces perceiving the aircraft as a threat and intercepting it.

[Neogen]

There are four airports in Andaman and Nicobar Islands:

IXZ
CBD
VO94
IN-0053

[surely not]

Assuming the B777 reaches this nice long runway at Car Nicobar, how do the hijackers keep all those working at this well kept nice long runway quiet about their arrival? There will be people with access to radio/mobile phones etc who would surely have let the outside world know they have a visitor?

[twalfa]

ELT stays for transmitter, not transponder. A small (but huge) difference.

[appuchan]

Why would anybody think that the aircraft has landed in Andaman Islands (Indian territory) and that too in an airstrip controlled by the IAF and still remain unknown for 7 days ?

[bono]

"Two U.S. officials believe the shutdown of two separate communications systems from the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 happened at different times, indicating the disappearance was less likely the result of a catastrophic failure and more the result of a "deliberate act," (http://abcnews.go.com/International/malaysia-airliner-pinging-indication-crashed-indian-ocean/story?id=22894802) according to a new report from ABC News."

New Evidence Suggests That Plane Disappearance Was A Deliberate Act | Business Insider India (http://goo.gl/e9sVHk)


My apologies if already posted earlier.

[Passagiata]

Two hours ago Australia's Radio National Drive program interview featured live discussion of the latest evidence leaked from the US
RN Drive - ABC Radio National (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/)

[Fake Sealion]

For those who watched the horror of the 9/11 events unfold on live TV it illustrated that nothing is seemingly off the agenda as far as terrorist shock, audacity and surprise is concerned. Truly stranger than fiction.

However, if there was a plot to do something wicked with the MAS aircraft, and that MAY have been the case, the world will have known about this by now.:ugh:

So..... as a poster said many many posts back - the aircraft and its passengers have perished,the aircraft sank to the sea-bed somewhere and will eventually be discovered.

Thats ALL we know.

[SRMman]

0940 GMT. The Malaysian transport minister gave the latest situation, in summary there are no new developments. He wouldn't comment on statements made by un named officials regarding data received (e.g. Rolls Royce). He said circumstances had forced them to widen their search.
Briefing continues.

[Stuffy]

When I saw the FAA report I concluded the same. However I did not consider a slow decompression.

Effectively the aircraft could be anywhere within a large radius.


Stanford student's theory on disappearance of MH370 goes viral (http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/se-asia/story/students-theory-mas-mh370-goes-viral-20140312)

[DaveReidUK]

Investigators from Rolls-Royce and the UK AAIB reportedly enroute to KL.

[MartinM]

I was listening to LiveATC recordings (archive)

WMKK Control from 15:00Z to 17:30Z on March 7. I have not found any MH370 communication with Kuala Lumpur Control. Which is sort of strange.

Did anyone find traces in LiveATC archives?

[brika]

Press conference going on at 0930 GMT
1 Turnback not 100% certified. primary military radar shows an unidentified aircraft flew across the peninsula.
2 US satelliet information cannot be revealed right now until verified and confirmed
3 we are now sharing info that is not normally shared because of national security
4 cannot confirm that there has been no hijacking
5 we are extending the search into the Indian Ocean and further into the South China Sea
6 two oil slicks found near area of last point of contact - one had jet fuel but say not from MH370. Other had no jet fuel.
7 Plane flew across the peninsula and on up to Andaman islands question - Transport minister will not confirm or verify.
8 Reports engine data continued not true.

[brika]

Just at end of press conference, Transport Minister said:

FAA and NTSB have looked at the Malaysian data and have agreed that the search should continue in both East and West direction

[Frequent Traveller]

Elsewhere earlier in this thread it has been said that 9M-MRO underwent C-check a week or so prior to the MH-370 event ... the Provider of that Maintenance service to MAS should be asked by the relevant Authorities to list those individuals who boarded the aircraft on this occasion. Correlate ?

[Heli-phile]

Hard job juggling 'National security' and full disclosure in such a bureaucratic country. I get the impression the authorities already know most of what has occurred but will not reveal it. Main issue is why....what is still at stake?

[Neogen]

Can anyone share more light on the last C-check? What was done.. it would be insightful to know in details.

[CargoOne]

Having vast experience of dealing with militaries, I've learned one thing: if they keep silence about anything particular, 9 times out of 10 it has nothing to do with classified information. Usually they simply know nothing and trying to hide it behind the smoke screen.

[mrbigbird]

"I don't subscribe to the theory of someone else hijacking the plan because by know the backgrounds of all those on board would have been examined and anyone without a pilot's licence learning to operate a 737's navigational and comms system would be suspicious...."

Agreed.

And besides to hijack a plane from outside the flight deck especially a 777 you would need a while team of people with equipment. Not just to get into the flight deck but to defend and ward off cabin crew and passengers in a counter attack - which after 9/11 would guaranteed.

Also they would have no way of ensuring they could gain control at a time where fuel resources would allow diversion to their chosen destination.

And any attack on the flight deck from out side would have resulted in mayday calls.

The cards are all starting to fall the one way.

[bsieker]

Stuffy,

When I saw the FAA report I concluded the same. However I did not consider a slow decompression.

Effectively the aircraft could be anywhere within a large radius.


Stanford student's theory on disappearance of MH370 goes viral

This has been discounted before. (1) Boeing said this particular airframe was not fitted with the specific SATCOM antenna installation that is the subject of the AD, and (2), it would not explain the cessation of ADS-B transmissions.

EDIT: I guess the third point is, the AD is from september and requires inspections, but only becomes effective in April 2014. This means the FAA does not consider it urgent. (Not to mention the nonsense of people becoming unconscious at 13,500 ft.)

[FE Hoppy]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dress
So they haven't investigated the pilot's simulator yet? Whoa.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FE Hoppy
Home Flight sim not searched yet?

What the hell have they been doing!
Why the heck should they? Seriously? Back the hell down! What evidence do you have to suggest the home flight sim has anything to do with this?

Given that an aircraft with over 200 passengers is missing and communications ceased in a "systematic" manner. There can be no doubt that anyone able to do that has to be a suspect. They should all be investigated including house searches and the flight sim could contain information pertinent to the case.

You don't just sit back and wait for the evidence to fall in your lap. You go and find it!

[Croqueteer]

A report says the Americans said that the engines continued to tx data for several hours. Surely Rolls can officially confirm or deny this?

[SRMman]

"Just at end of press conference, Transport Minister said:

FAA and NTSB have looked at the Malaysian data and have agreed that the search should continue in both East and West direction"


What he said was that the FAA/NTSB had agreed with their (Malaysian) decision to search in both areas; in other words they (US) also thought it was the right thing to do.

[drop24]

These are the way-points mentioned in the new Reuters article. Obviously the pilot probably didn't go directly over them but probably cut the corner while avoiding Thai airspace.http://i.imgur.com/Ci17JCi.jpg?1

[berksboy26]

Looking at the ATP drawing of the F/D O2 bottle many pages back, whilst the location is different, the basic installation appears to be very similar to the B767/757.
This aeroplane received base maintenance on 23 FEB - was the crew O2 bottle changed at this point (timex)?One of the checks at installation (and at other maintenance intervals at least on the B76/75) is to check that the large green on/off valve on the bottle top is both open and wirelocked - using the fine copper wire used on some FD guarded switches.
I know from a previous life that bottles have been found not wirelocked and on at least one occasion with the valve shut (and wirelocked) rendering the crew emergency oxygen system U/S. How this reconciles with the press to test and dolls eye on the oxygen mask stowage I know not and they do of course have additional portable oxy bottles on the flight deck - whether the crew (in an emergency situation) would recognise the problem is an entirely different question.
Having undergone chamber training at Boscombe Down many years ago I can only ever remember the rapid recovery once O2 is once more provided and that's when you know its about to happen.
On a different note and not wanting to denigrate a missing crew member
,whilst I am sure that many pilots have flight simulator software on their desk/laptops or iPads I still find it at least unusual or worse strange that a current high hours skipper has a room completely replicated as much as possible to a T7 cockpit.Whatevers been said on this forum thread and at MAS press conferences I cannot believe that the aircrew premises have not been searched by now.
Just a couple of thoughts at a very difficult time.

[LiveryMan]

Given that an aircraft with over 200 passengers is missing and communications ceased in a "systematic" manner. There can be no doubt that anyone able to do that has to be a suspect. They should all be investigated including house searches and the flight sim could contain information pertinent to the case.

You don't just sit back and wait for the evidence to fall in your lap. You go and find it!

Because the near-total lack of information pointing to the plane's fate necessarily means that authorities need to examine the spectre of possible wrongdoing by those who could have held its fate in their hands? :ugh:

Both pilots were fully qualified to be sat in that cockpit. Or at the very least, both held an ATPL. What makes you think they needed a "Home flight sim" to do anything untoward that their professional training and experience hadn't already furnished them with the required skills and knowledge for?

Hit your head of the wall all you like Dress, but your demands they check the home flight sim is just and ridiculous and unwarranted and others suggesting they search China for the plane.

Up to know, the only certain truth is a plane is missing. It's transponder stopped transmitting and it's not been seen or heard from since. All else is conjecture.

[Speed of Sound]

Well with the Andaman Islands being a possible hot bed of LTTE maybe it was taken so as to be used against the Govt of Sri Lanka? Filled with god knows what to be flown 911 style into something important in Sri Lanka??Can we cease all this talk about hijacking the plane to 'use later'?

If you want to hijack a plane and fly it into a building you do just that and have the element of surprise on your side. You don't hijack a plane, fly it a 1000 miles, land it somewhere then attempt to use it again when the eyes of the world (and every satellite & military asset in the region) are looking for that one plane.

Apart from anything else, how many people do you think would have to be involved in an enterprise like that?

[nitpicker330]

Ok but even the US CIA and Whitehouse have said its a possibility they can't rule out......

[philipat]

A report says the Americans said that the engines continued to tx data for several hours. Surely Rolls can officially confirm or deny this? There are two separate issues which are being confused. That engine data continued to be transmitted has been denied by all, including now, apparently, RR.

The latest, and separate, issue relates to satellite data. According to US sources, although MH did not subscribe to Boeing's ACARS satellite monitoring system, the aircraft was fitted with the necessary devices which, although not getting connected, would still Ping the satellite every 30 minutes. According to the same US sources, they have access to GPS data altitude and track. Perhaps this was possible as a result of triangulation with multiple satellites, including "Spook" satellites, which may be why specifics are not forthcoming.

If true, we should soon know because, if the pings are every 30 minutes, it should be on the same heading and within 250 nm of the last ping?

[Mark in CA]

Rolls-Royce concurs with Malaysia on missing jet's engine data (http://news.yahoo.com/rolls-royce-concurs-malaysia-missing-jets-engine-data-100810333--sector.html)

[FE Hoppy]

Both pilots were fully qualified to be sat in that cockpit. Or at the very least, both held an ATPL. What makes you think they needed a "Home flight sim" to do anything untoward that their professional training and experience hadn't already furnished them with the required skills and knowledge for?

Hit your head of the wall all you like Dress, but your demands they check the home flight sim is just and ridiculous and unwarranted and others suggesting they search China for the plane.

Up to know, the only certain truth is a plane is missing. It's transponder stopped transmitting and it's not been seen or heard from since. All else is conjecture.

So no need to look for any evidence of wrong doing then!
Oh hang on, outside of the cockpit (when he is always accompanied) where else can a "Fully qualified" pilot route plan, check fuel consumption, practice disabling equipment?

I'm not alleging anything. I'm saying this should have been investigated by now to dismiss the possibility. Thats what investigations do! :ugh::ugh:

[Orestes]

LivesinaField:

I believe the circuit breakers for the CVR and FDR on the 777 are not in the cockpit.

[threemiles]

Post 1389 of this thread

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-70.html#post8364395

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=217116208486081&set=vb.216929135171455&type=2&theater

What do you see? I see an alarm go off and almost no search, with jackets on. Big bags going through xray.

After Egyptair, Silkair, LAM and the like, would be worth to know if MH 777 flight deck doors can be opened from outside by keycode.

[fa2fi]

I should imagine there is a key code access to the flight deck. If the FAS type it in, the door alarm goes off and the door will temporarily unlock for a few seconds then re lock so long as the door is in normal mode. If it is in lock mode then the door will not open period.

[comcomtech]

I second GvonSprout's praise of the Pprune community's expertise. Pprune members are putting their collective noodle together to prune down the potential range of incredible scenarios for MH370's disappearance.

While there have been other plane disappearance mysteries, they are only a handful and most have yielded at least a few clues quickly.

The dearth of apparent clues is remarkable here, but Pprune is finding that there certainly are some: a possible radar tracking, ACARS pinging, perhaps cell phone pinging and so forth.

Perhaps the most interesting clue is the stonewalling, obfuscation, contradiction and reversals of stakeholders with access to such information. Certainly they have their military, political, economic and engineering--and possible other--reasons.

Traditionally, the world has come to expect nations to put aside such concerns in the face of disaster. And how much can any of them really be hiding?

The range of their primary radar? If the NSA has everyone's phone records, I'd be surprised if it didn't know what parts of the world are radar covered--or not.

ACARS subscription contracts? Surely pointless bureaucratic fears are mangling the truth here.

And so on. So once again, tip o' the hat to Pprune for doing the aviation community a solid in its role as Sherlock Holmes.

[gonetech]

It would seem Eric Moody's suspicion on a smoke screen may have some substance... speaking on Skynews the other day.

[Stuffy]

bsieker,

Thanks, I did not know that. The antenna destruction and slow decompression theory, worked for me. Because every possible scenario I had considered. There was always some issue that negated it.

Now the four hours of engine activity have been denied.

However there was a loss of communication. Apparently of all types.

The primary radar information of a change of course is uncertain. There is obviously quite a bit of pressure to find the aircraft. Hence the nervous reaction from the Malaysians.

Needle in a haystack time.

[Fly26]

Sky news just had a report from onboard one of the search aircraft, if any of his details where accurate and true he claims they do not have any equipment onboard to detect anything (pings etc) , so it's just visual looking out either side of the aircraft at low level. Also it quoted as a new search area, so I'm not sure this is good enough to find anything at this stage if any things to be found. :ugh:

[threemiles]

I should imagine there is a key code access to the flight deck. If the FAS type it in, the door alarm goes off and the door will temporarily unlock for a few seconds then re lock so long as the door is in normal mode. If it is in lock mode then the door will not open period.

All airlines have different equipment. It would need a source that KNOWS the MH 777, to rule out the loo theory (as it happened on LAM E190 a few months ago = deliberate CFIT).

[Livesinafield]

So this captain spent all that time building this "sim" who knows how long he had it in a post he mentions FS9 (FS2004) some posts are back from 2011, and now people are assuming he built it for the purpose of training to land on unfamiliar airfields to possibly carry out this "attack"

This is in the same category as "they put it down on a Jungle strip" BS

[fa2fi]

I understand. However there must be a way of denying access to the FD regardless of the airline setting.

[ETOPS]

Waypoint IGARI is just 94nm from the Malaysian AFB at Gong Kedak (WMGK). Based there are SU-30 Flanker fighters - I would have though such aircraft would need sophisticated air defence radar to direct them and detect threats.

Are the Malaysians saying that the equipment there couldn't track a 777 flying right past this base and it's movements past IGARI?

[Speed of Sound]

Oh hang on, outside of the cockpit (when he is always accompanied) where else can a "Fully qualified" pilot route plan, check fuel consumption, practice disabling equipment?You DO know how many hours this captain has/d, don't you?

[clayne]

Post 1389 of this thread

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-70.html#post8364395

What do you see? I see an alarm go off and almost no search, with jackets on. Big bags going through xray.

After Egyptair, Silkair, LAM and the like, would be worth to know if MH 777 flight deck doors can be opened from outside by keycode.

If you're wondering about the hypothetical difficulty of getting a weapon past security - yes, that's definitely possible (but obviously not recommended). The pat-down in Malaysian (and similarly Indonesian [and others]) airports is basically a formality and no where near as extensive or rigorous as the US. It seems like the majority of people set off the scanner - even with the obvious things removed (belt, lighters, phone, etc) so there's quite a few people getting routine pat downs and, as we all know, anything routine results in short-cuts and inattention. I could imagine that if one were ballsy and serious about it, they'd just pack a gun in their crotch or shoes - as the guards don't spend a lot of time on those areas. I cannot remember the last time I've even seen a hand scanner in the airports - it's always a pat down. IMO, security in SEA airports is mostly about the appearance of security with just adequate usage of the normal stuff (scanners), but definite swiss cheese.

That being said, I find US airport security to be a PITA/chip-on-shoulder/police-state in comparison but let's save that discussion for another time.

Personally, I'm still in the "no foul play" camp on this one. I also find the excessive paranoia over the captain's sim hobby to be firmly within the realm of "the terrorists have won."

People just want a dramatic outcome rather than the more likely sad reality.

[Memetic]

Be wary of following up news items on this story.

Cyber criminals are already using the interest generated by this event to lure people into malware laden sites.

BEWARE of new Facebook Malware Claims, 'Malaysia Plane MH370 Has Been Spotted' - The Hacker News (http://thehackernews.com/2014/03/beware-of-new-facebook-malware-claims.html)

[mrbigbird]

If reports about the likely (destination according to radar plots) is to be believed, and subsequently proved as being the Andaman Islands and we accept that someone set up a very deliberate flight path using recognised way points.

Why didn't 'they' set a direct course across the Thai peninsula.

That would have saved time and fuel.

Thoughts on why 'they' decided to fly over Malaysia first and then changed the heading?

Obviously this was not spur of the moment stuff.

Why that route?

[ekw]

Yes, if there was a second change of heading that pretty much negates the hypoxia theory - although depressurisation could still have been used as a weapon to incapacitate everyone else. Hijacking is far fetched, the logistics are too great and the risk of failure too high. So if there was a change of course, odds on it was towards deeper water. No change in heading and hypoxia is back as number one suspect. In the absence of confirmation, the lack of transponder signal still increases the odds that this was a deliberate act. Inmarsat or whoever it is that has the logs must have about 10 pings. That will allow calculation of direction and speed and hence any navigational changes. Even if there was no change in HDG murderous intentions are not completely ruled out, as any culprit might prefer self induced hypoxia to violent concussion. In every investigation like this innocent people who may have crossed the scene will be looked at. There can be no squeamishness about doing this.

[FE Hoppy]

Quote:
Oh hang on, outside of the cockpit (when he is always accompanied) where else can a "Fully qualified" pilot route plan, check fuel consumption, practice disabling equipment?
You DO know how many hours this captain has/d, don't you?

How many of those hours are relevant to the skills required in this case?


The point is, the police must investigate every possibility in order to dismiss each. Searching a house is one of the easiest tasks in this investigation requiring very few assets and very little time. Until it's done nobody knows what evidence may or may not be there!

[Navy_Adversary]

The Malaysian authorities seemed to dismiss the finding of Jet fuel in an oil slick in the South China Sea as being significant, if not connected to 370, where could the Jet fuel have come from?

[EngineeringPilot]

If reports about the likely (destination according to radar plots) is to be believed, and subsequently proved as being the Andaman Islands and we accept that someone set up a very deliberate flight path using recognised way points.

Why didn't 'they' set a direct course across the Thai peninsula.

That would have saved time and fuel.

Thoughts on why 'they' decided to fly over Malaysia first and then changed the heading?

Obviously this was not spur of the moment stuff.

Why that route?


I'm guessing that route was strategically planned, which is why the plane has now "disappeared" and we are still searching for it 7 days later! Also, such a route would probably involve flying under the ground radars, thus being undetected while making its way to where it was heading after disabling all onboard communications and ACARS and ELT

[1stspotter]

Reported by Singapore Today on Twitter
"This is latest and most accurate flight path and the reason why the search is now where it is"
https://twitter.com/sgify

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BirnQGVCAAEZ0It.jpg:large

[Speed of Sound]

But why in the world someone who takes (unlawfully, let's suppose) control of the a/c would want to follow a route neatly through all those wpts? If he wanted to take it somewhere, it would be more logical to fly direct.More logical maybe. but not so easy to an unqualified person flying the plane especially if you are unsure of your location after the struggle to take over control of the aircraft. If your 'nefarious' final destination is not in the FMC database and you really don't fancy dead reckoning at night, a bit of advance planning and judicious use of the LSKs will get you 90% of the way there.

I'm not saying that's what happened but it is certainly something to consider.

[EngineeringPilot]

The Malaysian authorities seemed to dismiss the finding of Jet fuel in an oil slick in the South China Sea as being significant, if not connected to 370, where could the Jet fuel have come from?


I remember last seeing that they said only "fuel".. Did they confirm later after testing that it was indeed "jet fuel" or was the results of the testing not publicised?

[Titania]

Please, could someone here with access to reliable knowledge confirm to me that push-back and take-off were precisely at 00:27 and 00:41 local time, respectively? I have various media contradictions (Flightstats vs. FR24 vs. others) and not interested in what the press says. Only in hard data. Many thanks indeed. Titania

[EngineeringPilot]

"This is latest and most accurate flight path and the reason why the search is now where it is"


After how many hours of flight would it then be at IGREX? Has that been released? i.e. the time at which it was at each waypoint?

[Request Orbit]

EPPO: But why in the world someone who takes (unlawfully, let's suppose) control of the a/c would want to follow a route neatly through all those wpts? If he wanted to take it somewhere, it would be more logical to fly direct.

If it stays on UARs on the associated track, then radar operators would be more likely to overlook the track as an expected everyday blip. It's entirely possible that people would just mentally filter it out.

As soon as you go off-route and start flying direct, then that would be an unusual occurrence that you'd pay more attention to.

[Request Orbit]

PortVale: Would SIA68's TCAS not go mental and force an RA if MH370 got too close?

SIA would tell ATC.

Transponder was off, so TCAS wouldn't know it was there.

[mrbigbird]

Let's back track.

Transponder turned off.

ATC ask aircraft flying ahead to try to make contact on the emergency frequency.

This was achieved. But I have seen no transcript even from memory of what was said. Just that communication was difficult because of static.

But the other Malaysian pilot said he was confident it sounded like the voice of the pilot or co pilot.

Then this avenue of communication stopped as well.

It would be very interesting to know the time line of the erratic flight levels.

Could that call up on the emergency frequency have alerted the innocent pilot to what the other was up to eg switching off the transponder. And a struggle eschewed???

It seems that some sort of conversation happened. If everything was kosher and you were in control of an aircraft and you are contacted on an emergency frequency saying that your transponder is off and ATC have lost you - that would be be more than a casual chat.

And finally what indication if any would appear on the flight deck that the transponder had been turned off. Would there be on screen messages? Alarms.

Specifically would a co-pilot know if a driver in the other seat had disabled these?

[fireflybob]

Is the conflicting information coming from the various agencies (Malaysia, USA - even China) quite deliberate?

If we suppose the aircraft has possibly landed somewhere it would make sense for the authorities to keep giving an appearance of confusion and lack of knowledge whilst getting all the ducks in a row to deal with the perpetrators when they make their next move.

[EngineeringPilot]

I'm not too familiar with TCAS' operation, but since 370's Transponder was decidedly off, would 68 know they were there at all?


SIA68 would only know MH370 was there through visual means, not on radar since transponder and acars were off

[A310bcal]

The more one sees , and the more one reads, especially regarding the route being flown and the timing of dropping off of all comms, the more this looks like a very carefully planned and executed operation. The choice of when to go "missing" and then large changes of heading to throw off any searchers ( radar or otherwise ) .....

Looks like an insider job now from where I'm sitting , but sadly I've been wrong many times in the past, so.....:confused:

[172driver]

To 'sneak up' on SIA they would have had to be able to fly significantly faster than SIA or fly some sort of lateral intercept maneuver. SIA was also a T7.... I think we're in fighter/interceptor territory here, not what a T7 is built to do.

[Speed of Sound]

How many of those hours are relevant to the skills required in this case?You are missing the point.

A senior captain with that much experience and presumably access to a whole library of company and Boeng manuals is not likely to need a homebuilt flight sim to find out how to switch off, or disable various functions.

Yes, the police should investigate everything, but with limited resources they need to prioritise the most likely areas first.

A flight sim in the captain's home and discussed on a number of enthusiast forums and YouTube is not really that suspicious.

[Steve6443]

Just my tuppence worth. The latest reports seem to indicate a plane flying along airways and my first thought was - bearing in mind their transponder was off and they weren't talking to anyone - thank goodness they didn't collide with another plane.

Some have suggested that an explosive decompression or even a slow decompression for that matter could have been the cause, losing communications - but surely anything disrupting the comms / transponder would also impact their ability to navigate?

Others suggest that some event - explosive decompression with failed oxygen would lead to hypoxia and this could have impaired their ability but how could they be so hypoxic as not to be able to enter the correct altitude in the autopilot but able to enter the details into a flight management system for a totally different set of co-ordinates?

Some are stating the pilot turned the transponder off as a precursor in a bid to commit suicide but then I recall hearing about the altitude change - if I pilot wanted to commit suicide, why not "go out in a blaze of glory" and charge along an airway toward oncoming traffic with ATC unaware what's going on? Surely, anyone intent on committing suicide isn't "rational" enough to switch from FL350 down to a level which would avoid any other traffic flying according to the Hemispherical rule.

Then why FL295? Because they were possibly transiting an area where the Quadrangal rule is in effect and they wanted to be sure that they didn't hit anything coming the other way, because this is in effect up to FL290 (see the Malaysian AIP). So why not fly at FL355? Possible because other planes flying at FL340 - 360 could see them pass relatively close under them and advise ATC of a "near miss"?

So when you add this all up together, I'm tending to think that this was a deliberate change of course, maybe a member of the crew had ulterior motives and had intended to divert elsewhere, for reasons unknown - who knows, maybe coercion of some sort or other? However he could only do this once his fellow (non involved) flight crew had actually left the cabin, for example for a toilet break, but what happened if he had miscalculated the fuel required to reach this new destination due to high level winds, due to the fact that he couldn't start his new flight because his co-crew didn't go for their break early enough, that the plane then was forced to ditch elsewhere?

I don't subscribe to the theory of someone else hijacking the plane by overpowering the crew because by now the backgrounds of all those on board would have been examined and anyone without a pilot's licence who would have been learning to operate a 737's navigational and comms system would be suspicious and I don't believe that an amateur, reliant on flight sims alone, would be able to adequately program a 737's FMS...

[flightdecksoftware]

In post 3233 The flightpath suggests transponder was disabled exactly at igari waypoint. If this is correct you could think the flightplan was already in the FMS beforehand and whoever was in control wanted tot hide the deviation from the filed flightplan exactly when reaching igari by turning off the transponder.

[Ian W]

If reports about the likely (destination according to radar plots) is to be believed, and subsequently proved as being the Andaman Islands and we accept that someone set up a very deliberate flight path using recognised way points.

Why didn't 'they' set a direct course across the Thai peninsula.

That would have saved time and fuel.

Thoughts on why 'they' decided to fly over Malaysia first and then changed the heading?

Obviously this was not spur of the moment stuff.

Why that route?

If you wanted to ensure that any AD people awake were not made edgy by your aircraft you would follow a standard route at a standard altitude and look like any other westbound. If you want to alert AD fly off route on a direct heading through procedural airspace. This also confirms the taken by someone who knows and has planned what they are doing. Anyone still pushing the decompression after a bomb, fuselage failure or oxygen bottle theories should abandon them.

[fa2fi]

You wouldn't go out in a blaze of glory because if it were apparent that it was a deliberate act, your insurance will not pay out, not to mention the shame your family would live with. Whereas going into stealth mode, flying South West into very deep sea miles from where people are looking means there's a good chance you'll never be found.

[mrbigbird]

Quote:
"The more one sees , and the more one reads, especially regarding the route being flown and the timing of dropping off of all comms, the more this looks like a very carefully planned and executed operation. The choice of when to go "missing" and then large changes of heading to throw off any searchers ( radar or otherwise ) .....

I am actually very eager to find out if this is a very carefully planned and executed operation, I am kind of hoping it is and all the passengers and crews are still being held hostage somewhere, all alive! But oh well, if this is actually the case, this hijack would be one hell of a job"

Let's assume its a hijack.

To control and subdue 200+ souls you need more than 1 pilot flying.

Just in the air alone you'd need at least 6 heavily armed hijackers just in the cabin. In light of 9/11 probably more.

I just don't see that many suspicious sleepers in the passenger list.

To me it looks like an individual going postal. But if that is the case why the precise flight path to destination unknown.

Someone mentioned significant USA military footprint nearby??

[James7]

Steve6443 don't subscribe to the theory of someone else hijacking the plane by overpowering the crew.

Agree, the pilots could have got a call out or just held open the mic. Also they would ave to be pretty quick to disable all the comms, especially the SAT phones to stop anyone in the cabin making a call on the seat telephone.

They would also have to be knowledgeable of the DATA comms system and disable the ADS CPDLC SAT HF and VHF data link.

The pilots could do this in a matter of seconds, also best to switch off the ADS CPDLC and transponder when transiting from one sector to another. This would not arouse any immediate suspicion as one sector would think the other was still in 'control'.

It would take several minutes for the controllers to be aware something was amiss and by that time the plane would be well out of the area and so difficult to spot on primary radar. It would also take time to alert an operator of a primary radar set (military), that the aircraft was lost.

[RetiredF4]

Where would MH370 have been headed, if the latest confirmed or unconfirmed rumors hold any real information? The rumors point to the region of the andaman islands group.

What place could it land there?

I would put my bet on great coco island, i posted a reference few posts earlier, here is a better reference.

Wikimapia - Let's describe the whole world! (http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=14.120678&lon=93.396578&z=13&m=b&show=/3523609/Coco-Island-Airport-(Myanmar))

1.400 meters could be enough after fuel has been used? That would explain the flighttime to use up the fuel as much as possible. By an able and trained crew i think so. Could it land unobserved? Nobody was looking there from the orbit, when the search started to concentrate to the east of Malaysia. It is a remote place, only around a thousand people there on the whole island. The airport seems to be off limits due to military presence. Could it have been refueld there? There is probably fuel available or could be made available. Could it take off again? I dont know, what do the experts say after removing all load with some fuel to get to its next destination, be it another landing place or an eternal wet grave?

But what would be the motivation for such an act? To answer that, we would have to be willing to discuss the "chinese question", they are the housekeepers on this airport. Do they have motive, ability and will to commence such a deed? What can they gain?

Think about their part in the search until now, could the satellite images have been a diversion, when the focus of the search changed suddenly to the west of malaysia?

This is my third post on this thread and it is highly speculative and probably political sensitive. I´m well aware that this post might disapear in short time by the mods- no pun intended, you guys do a great job here-, but it is worth a try.

[Andu]

mrbigbird, if the hijacker(s) gained access to the cockpit, the number of passengers in the cabin is totally irrelevant, so even a lone hijacker could carry out the takeover (although two to four would be more likely).

The doors between cockpit and cabin fitted to all wide body (and most narrow body) airliners after 2001 make it impossible for the pax to gain access to the cockpit - and, given the hour of the day that these events took place, it's quite possible that no one in the cabin, perhaps not even the First Class cabin crew, would even be aware that anything was amiss for quite some time - until just before the aircraft landed or ditched.

[xyze]

Mention has been made that although the flight was not full (with 50 or more unoccupied seats) there were passengers who flew standby. The reason given for this in this thread was that cargo uplift may have limited passenger capacity.

Question - how often does routine cargo on a passenger flight displace this much passenger uplift capacity?

If it was revealed that the cargo included a heavy valuable substance weighing as much as 50 passengers and their baggage, how many reading this thread would change their mind as to likely cause?

[Lonewolf_50]

About the passengers: it's the Midnight to Dawn flight to Beijing. Guessing most passengers intended to sleep the flight away.

About Malaysian Air Force scrambling fighters (response to poster ETOPS):

Not trying to give the Malaysians the needle here, but why would one assume they are on alert 30 or alert 15 at midnight? I have no insight into what "DEFCON" condition Malaysia maintains, but they don't have a large Air Force, and it's the late shift. The flight profile as described, heading west, may very well NOT match a given threat profile they use to scramble fighters.

My KISS principle applied to that is that it isn't a surprise that nobody launched an alert fighter section.

[mrbigbird]

Reported by Singapore Today on Twitter
"This is latest and most accurate flight path and the reason why the search is now where it is"
https://twitter.com/sgify


Looking at this track I think is beggars belief that the Malaysian military radar was unable to see this aircraft. If not in real time on the night then surely on review of the tapes.

And anyone who looks at these very precise changes of headings at recognised way points can only come to the one conclusion that the aircraft was not critically damaged and was under the command of a professionally trained pilot.

So I would suggest the leaders of almost all countries involved have known for many days that we are not dealing with a disaster caused by either mechanical or Structual defect.

This is something else entirely. Something I need not put into words.

We have been told specifically, almost from day one, in briefings that there are some things the Malaysians can tell us. And some things they can't.

It seems clear to me that this is what they were talking about. Or rather refusing to talk about.

[B777FD]

Would someone have any idea that at its last known position ie Igari .....How much fuel did the aircraft have since it was fueled to fly to Beijing with reserves ??

It is possible to estimate the trip fuel & therefore reserves etc. but the final fuel load would be the Crew's decision. It could have carried plenty more than the minimum required to get to ZBAA.

The only ones to know for sure are those in possession of the ground copy of the loadsheet. That would show minimum required fuel plus any extra.

[dmba]

If the plane has crashed, could passengers have been saved if all the information had been made available to all resources from day 1?

Should there not be a central authority that oversees searches? I find it bad that Boeing would be prohibited from officially announcing anything because they are required to pass that information on to the country overseeing the current state of affairs.

Wherever the plane is found will suddenly be the overseeing country of the case. Just sounds like too much red tape when there is an emergency.

[papershuffler]

Or from another aircraft sneaking through for legitimite or nefarious reasons?
That would explain if there was 'strategic planning' along the 'flightpath', if it was a completely different aircraft en route elsewhere.

How much information is contained in these 'Hello, I'm here' pings?


The following questions haven't been answered, have they been asked?
- Which countries within the search area have positively ruled out MH370 crossing into their airspace? Have any?
- Which countries did/do not have the capability to confirm whether MH370 entered their airspace? (I've read that southern Thailand was not covered, it may be the case that parts of Indonesia weren't too. How widely is this known?)

[crisso]

Simply a heads-up (as a change of programme), on TV Channel 5 here in the UK tonight (14th) at 9 pm/2100z for one hour - 'The Plane that Vanished: Live'.

[500N]

So, has the aircraft crashed into the ocean or landed in some far away place ?

What is the general feeling ?

[fireflybob]

Simply a heads-up (as a change of programme), on TV Channel 5 here in the UK tonight (14th) at 9 pm/2100z for one hour - 'The Plane that Vanished: Live'.

Thanks for reminding me not to watch this - no doubt more armchair experts being wheeled out for it now.

What is the general feeling ?

Nobody knows what happened.

[dmba]

I am beginning to think there are two heros in waiting here, who have negotiated to at least prolong the inevitable or possibly save lives. They appear, to me, to have left a quite specific trace with what they had available.

The idea that pilots would take a plane should surely be the least conceivable on this forum...

[James7]

Once the aircraft was low enough and in range of mobile phone masts then all mobile phones could be tracked and positioned with some degree of accuracy.

The phone does not even have to be on. Just the battery installed.

Once a few mobile numbers of the pax have been identified, pretty simple task, then the position of these phones should be easy to locate.

[HeathrowAirport]

"Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah was in command of MH370 at the time of it's disappearance. Captain Shah was well known to many in the flight simulation community because he had developed an online presence in which he dedicated many hours of his time to promoting the enjoyment of flying generally, and flight simulation specifically.

In a manner of speaking, our community appears to have lost one of our own by virtue of the fact that he was also an accomplished 777 captain flying for a well respected airline.

There has been some conjecture in various locations around the internet as to what Captain Shah's relationship with PMDG might have been. Some have posited that since he is a flight simulation enthusiast and a 777 captain, he must therefore have been involved in the development and/or testing of the PMDG 777-200LR/F product line.

Aside from being a PMDG customer, Captain Shah had no relationship with PMDG Simulations.

Currently there are significant questions and mystery surrounding the circumstances of MH 370. As is always the case when something cannot be explained, there are many folks attempting to explain the event to the public using theories, guesswork and good, old-fashioned imagination. Some of these individuals are indeed experts attempting to apply reasoned thought process to the event in order to help the public understand what happened. Still others are working with outdated expertise, or lack of expertise in the type of flying involved, the aircraft involved or the technology involved.

Some of these commentators have focused on Captain Shah's love of the flight simulation hobby as a suggestion that he may somehow have played a role in the disappearance of MH 370. Such wild conjecture is not only insulting to those of us who wear or have worn the stripes of a captain, but has the potential to be damaging to the flight simulation hobby."

Please bear this in mind, regarding pointing the finger at Captain Shah.

[Speed of Sound]

And anyone who looks at these very precise changes of headings at recognised way points can only come to the one conclusion that the aircraft was not critically damaged and was under the command of a professionally trained pilot.What very precise changes?

If the ACARS 'pings' information is correct, then this route was constructed from between 5 and 10 triangulated positions at 30 min intervals. Just because someone has drawn a 'line of best fit' using known waypoints then superimposed it on a map of the area, that does not make it a verified route.

It is just a guestimate of where it may have gone.

[James7]

dmba...The idea that pilots would take a plane should surely be the least conceivable on this forum...

History is not on your side. Only recently an Ethiopian plane was hijacked by the co-pilot with the Captain locked out. Aircraft landed in Geneva etc..

[muddweller]

James, your humility is appreciated. Fly safely and keep the f'ing door locked!
Cheers,
Muddy.

[glenbrook]

I think it would be fair to say that quite a few pilots will, over the next few months, be very, very careful to maintain proper comms with ATC at all time.


I think you'll find that they are supposed to be doing that anyway.

There is so much bizarre theories bandied about, we should remind ourselves of what we really know

1) A/c vanishing in mid flight is incredibly rare.
2) Hijack or terrorist action is much rarer (20-50x less likely) than pilot error or technical fault
3) We have no solid information beyond the LKP in the Gulf of Thailand, only rumors.

Then list what we don't know:

SAR is searching both sides of Malay peninsula, South China Sea and Andaman Sea, because they do not know where to look.
We don't know the transponder was switched off, just that it never showed up in Vietnam airspace.
We don't know that the a/c produced no RT or mayday, just that none was heard or recorded.
We don't know if the plane turned back or not
We don't know if the engines were running for hours afterwards
We have no evidence of a hijacking, ransom or terrorist action.
We have no evidence of a rogue or suicidal pilot, which are also incredibly rare and unlikely.
Lack of debris around LKP does not mean that it did not crash there.

There have been so many false leads now, we can't really believe anything beyond what was known in the hours after the disappearance. I don't expect an imminent breakthrough. Rumors and theories are flying around the internet, but what it seems to me is that the authorities and SAR resources really don't know much more than we do. They seem to be chasing rumors too. The internet has given "legs" to some of these rumors. This does not turn rumor into evidence.

It is deeply unsatisfactory, but there is no other conclusion. We as crew and passengers just have to live with no understanding of this unsettling incident until something turns up. Don't be surprised if this takes a few more weeks.

[notadog]

Can navigation lights on a 777 be disabled from the cockpit?

No.

Nothing can be disabled from the cockpit. All of the switches are fake. They are only there for show. The pilots can control nothing. It's all an illusion to make the flying public feel safer.

The pilots are actors.

It's all a show controlled from the ground, and choreographed through the transponder.

:rolleyes:

[physicus]

If the routing IGARI-VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX is indeed correct, we're looking at a routing that is NOT following any high altitude airways. At 450kts GSP, this routing would have taken 1.5h, this another 2.5h short of when the pings ended. And at FL295…? This is looking more and more like a deliberate action to me.

[Passagiata]

Oyviv:
Quote
I just don't see that many suspicious sleepers in the passenger list.
Unquote

I thought there was a confirmed Chinese Uigher on board, from the same minority group that includes some terrorist activists who (apparently) murdered 29 at a train station in China a fortnight ago?

[pilotchipmunk]

Seriously I have been reading this thread over the last few days and really with those that are so hung up on the whole flight sim issue I must say I'm quite disappointed.
I know a lot of professional pilots who use or have built flight sims at home, some due to passion of flying and some just to practice emergency procedures and approaches on the types they fly if they are feeling a little rusty.

The fact he has a home built sim really has nothing to do with the issue.

[brika]

From WSJ, not clear if pings did actually transmit data or were just pinging. Data would have included altitude, heading, speed etc if actually received.

[Evey_Hammond]

Not sure if this post will stay but I have a question I'd like to ask: How are the professional pilots taking this ongoing story? Is it all that's talked about? Does the not-knowing make you nervous when you turn up for work? As a non-pilot I can hardly begin to image how un-nerving this occurrence must be and I am curious as to how you deal with this on a daily basis :confused:

[snakepit]

Xyze
Mention has been made that although the flight was not full (with 50 or more unoccupied seats) there were passengers who flew standby. The reason given for this in this thread was that cargo uplift may have limited passenger capacity.

Question - how often does routine cargo on a passenger flight displace this much passenger uplift capacity?

If it was revealed that the cargo included a heavy valuable substance weighing as much as 50 passengers and their baggage, how many reading this thread would change their mind as to likely cause?

50 pax at 75kgs (just an approximation of average weight) each plus 20kgs baggage would be a possible 4750kgs of freight. 1kg gold is currently about £27,000 GBP. Of course we have no idea what the freight was or whether it had any bearing on this ongoing mystery

[philipat]

From WSJ, not clear if pings did actually transmit data or were just pinging. Data would have included altitude, heading, speed etc if actually received.

There remains the possibility that data was triangulated using Spook sats. If so, they aren't going to divulge anything further. We will know whether there is anything to it within the next 24 hours if they locate the site. Or not.

[mabuhay_2000]

As a retired senior detective and AVSEC specialist, I laugh when somebody says they can't spot too many, sleepers in the PAX manifest.

If it were as easy to catch hijackers by reading down the PAX manifest, we'd catch them all easily.

Hijackers don't necessarily have the same profile as your average terrorist. Why? Because not all hijackers are terrorists.

As for the crew, the captain and first officer have nothing, it seems, in common. There is a large age gap. There is a large disparity in experience. One appears to be a man dedicated to his job, the other a bit of a playboy (if earlier reports are at all accurate).

And no one planning this type of op would have drawn attention to himself by publicizing that he had a fairly good mock simulator in his house.

If the aircraft has been nicked, its more likely to be via hijacking.

[khorton]

Then why FL295? Because they were possibly transiting an area where the Quadrangal rule is in effect and they wanted to be sure that they didn't hit anything coming the other way, because this is in effect up to FL290 (see the Malaysian AIP). So why not fly at FL355? Possible because other planes flying at FL340 - 360 could see them pass relatively close under them and advise ATC of a "near miss"?
What is the source of FL295 as the altitude? If it is from primary radar, keep in mind that the altitude will be quite approximate, and that it will be in geometric altitude (like you would measure with a tape measure). Aircraft cruise altitudes are barometric altitudes, based on measuring air pressure and converting to altitude, assuming that the air pressure vs altitude is the same as the Standard Atmosphere. But, in the real world, with variations of air temperature and local atmospheric pressure, the relationship between barometric altitude and geometric altitude can easily vary by 1000 or 2000 ft at high altitude.

So, a report of FL295 from primary radar could easily be an aircraft cruising at FL280, FL290, FL300 or FL310 based on its barometric altimeter.

[wiggy]

Does the not-knowing make you nervous when you turn up for work?

Personally no. I don't want to sound as if I'm callous or unsympathetic for the plight of the relatives, that's not the case and I'd like to know what happened but no two flights/accidents are the same and my job is to prevent another one from happening, not worrying about one I have no influence over.

I am curious as to how you deal with this on a daily basis

TBH it's report for work as normal, get airborne, probably spend some of the time in the cruise talking about the accident and having a special chuckle about some of the theories in this place.....pretty much a routine day at the office.

[CodyBlade]

FL295 was confirmed by the RMAF Chief.

[ekpilot]

So the captain builds and flies an advanced sim on his off days instead of going to the mosque 5 times a day - and HE is the suspect one!!?? Get real!

It's been 2000 posts since I last contributed, and whereas I truely appreciate the input from fellow professionals, from the aviation industry and others, I can't help but being angered by those writing here with the only purpose of satisfying their own curiosity and/or writing mindless nonsense. GO AWAY! Find another forum. Or stay. Read.. And learn.

[FE Hoppy]

As a retired senior detective and AVSEC specialist, I laugh when somebody says they can't spot too many, sleepers in the PAX manifest.

If it were as easy to catch hijackers by reading down the PAX manifest, we'd catch them all easily.

Hijackers don't necessarily have the same profile as your average terrorist. Why? Because not all hijackers are terrorists.

As for the crew, the captain and first officer have nothing, it seems, in common. There is a large age gap. There is a large disparity in experience. One appears to be a man dedicated to his job, the other a bit of a playboy (if earlier reports are at all accurate).

And no one planning this type of op would have drawn attention to himself by publicizing that he had a fairly good mock simulator in his house.

If the aircraft has been nicked, its more likely to be via hijacking.

As a retired senior detective are you satisfied that there is no reason the search the Pilot's homes?

Or would you prefer to help eliminate them from the enquiry by checking for any evidence?

[Pitot Probe]

but no two flights/accidents are the same and my job is to prevent another one from happening, not worrying about one I have no influence over.
+1


Also. I am taking Cockpit Entry Procedures a bit more seriously at the moment!

[1stspotter]

This seems a very clever job. Disappear at handover, change route a couple of times. Disable all communications.

The Malaysians and the US for sure know more than willing to tell the public. Too many smokescreens and confirm/unconfirms of leads. I am pretty sure those satellite images released by error by a Chinese state agency was another smoke screen to win time.

911 has proven the capabilities of Taliban. They know about aircraft. They never claimed the attacks.

What about hijacking the plane to a Taliban controlled area in Pakistan?
Or more likely just ditch the aircraft in a part of the Indian Ocean being certain it will be hard if not impossible to find?
Or was it heading for Karachi or a city in India and shot down?

Most passengers were Chinese. Uighur/Taliban terrorist attack?

[ShenziRubani]

so annoying to see these posts about the Capt and his flight sim hobby. What the heck! We fly airplane, love airplane (for most) and many of us have flight sim as a hobby. All these non-aviation people fishing for stuff on here need to use their brain a tiny bit: he's already a T7 captain, he doesn't need a home flight sim to learn how to hijack his own flight.
:mad:

[Comanche]

According to Shah's friends, he knew the ins and the outs of the Boeing 777 extremely well as he was always practising with a flight simulator of the plane he had set up at his home, Reuters reported.

The fact of a commercial pilot with 18000 hrs having a flight simulator set up at home is VERY VERY suspicious indeed. Sure, some of us airline pilots fly small planes on days off, but flying a 777 computer flight simulator in your spare time is unheard of in my experience and highly unusual. Apart from flying line trips, there are also the twice annual obligatory commercial simulator rides, very few pilots - if any - would have the desire to then also fly from home in some sort of low-fidelity set up, unless you were testing out certain dodgy scenario's.....

We fly airplane, love airplane (for most)

unusual for pilot with 18000 hrs, for many above 10000 hrs or so the fun fades and it really becomes more of a job. Ever heard of any pilots asking crewing for more flying rather than less? Didn't think so.

[Speed of Sound]

How are the professional pilots taking this ongoing story? Is it all that's talked about? Does the not-knowing make you nervous when you turn up for work? As a non-pilot I can hardly begin to image how un-nerving this occurrence must be and I am curious as to how you deal with this on a daily basis Your answer lies in the word I have highlighted.

I'd say that although it will be a topic for discussion and much speculation, it will be business as usual.

[Frenchwalker]

For the love of god, pilots have flight sims,

i am a simply student pilot and i use my flight sim day in a day out practicing and refreshing on procedures and at $700 a nav flight its smarter to practice my navigation on a flight sim with my ipad

how do you think a Airline pilot practices? i wonder what the going rate for a 777 per hour is :ugh:

i practice aproaches and even emergency situations so that i am ready for when the worst happens "excluding the wings falling off of couse"

it is very common place for any pilot to have a flight sim

drop the nonsence

[answer=42]

@Brika

The way I understand it, the way the logic works is like this:

If (engines running) then {
Every half hour {
Get (time, direction, speed, altitude);
If (engine event) then Get (engine status);
Get (other information);
Ping (time, direction, speed, altitude, engine status, other information) to recipients;
}
}

But, because the engine status and other information reports have been switched off, what was actually happening was:

If (engines running) then {
Every half hour {
Get (time, direction, speed, altitude);
Ping (time, direction, speed, altitude) to recipients;
}
}

On reception by Rolls Royce, this ping is automatically detected as null information and is therefore filtered out, probably with no record.

The ping with time, direction, speed, altitude comes from a source other than Rolls Royce.

What we know as a consequence of the US analysis is the location at the last ping, its then current time, direction, speed, altitude and when the engines were switched off.

There appears to be a gap in time between the last way-station and the reported engine off time. This is because the way-station is in the middle of the ocean. Hence, this does not tell us much.

Question: if the routing had been maintained after the last way-station passed, what would be the identity of the next way-station and when would it have been passed?

[Van Der]

@James7 (sorry I cannot find the quote function...)
Ref your post in italics below:


"dmba...The idea that pilots would take a plane should surely be the least conceivable on this forum...

History is not on your side. Only recently an Ethiopian plane was hijacked by the co-pilot with the Captain locked out. Aircraft landed in Geneva etc.."


Also recently (Nov 2013) a LAM Embraer 190 was "hijacked" by the Captain and flown into the ground enroute between MPM and LAD, killing all 27 occupants.


http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/528841-lam-mozambique-flight-crashed-11.html


Maybe not so inconceivable anymore...?

[aterpster]

it is very common place for any pilot to have a flight sim

Not professionals.

Some have light airplanes, some fly gliders; most try to forget about all of it on their own time.

[kenjaDROP]

Those of you postulating about whether the 'ping' paging addresses from the aircraft's SATCOM system reporting would contain GPS, flight level, speed, heading, etc.....it clearly didn't because it didn't pass over ANY data string. Get it into your heads, as confirmed officially, the airline was not signed up for this aircraft to pass SATCOM data of this type to Boeing.

Why do you posters keep going over the same ground asking about data transfer from the aircraft?!

What the plane WAS doing is, nevertheless, continuing to page the (non-contracted into) satellite monitoring system with its 'pings'.

Now, if there were two satellites or, better, three which had logged only those pings against accurate time, that would - when all the mountain of data is analysed - provide a position. The continuing repeat 'pings', with known time frequency, would enable the monitoring organisation to extrapolate the heading and speed, and maybe the altitude, for as long as the 'pings' lasted.

[turnandburn]

As most incidents have multiple factors. Adecompression with mec fire with multiple bus failures, and in doning oxy masks the oxy bottles were refilled with nitrogen(the ground ones that is) this transfered to aircraft.
They just tried to turn back before being overcome with toxic fumes.Drop to FL295 give best TAS

Like UPS and asiana 747s
Everything supposition until they find something

[FlyingOfficerKite]

The fact of a commercial pilot with 18000 hrs having a flight simulator set up at home is VERY VERY suspicious indeed.

I've got an air rifle in my loft, a selection of knives in the kitchen, a pilot's licence and a map of the World.

I don't believe it - I'm a knife wielding, gun toting, international suicide pilot - AND I NEVER KNEW IT!!!

Seriously though, I'm pleased no one's mentioned the parachutes kept in the flight deck - just in case we decide its a bad day and we've had enough!

[CommanderCYYZ]

I've been flying commercial (747 and AB340s) for longer than I care to admit, and I have a flightsim at home in the basement. Does that make me crazy or a criminal?

Lots of my colleagues fly sims at home, or go to a location near YYZ where they have a near professional grade simulator that one can rent. Simulators allow you to fly situations that you hope you will never encounter in real life, or simply try other virtual AC just for the fun of it.

You guys...

[answer=42]

@KenjaDROP

Your statement:
Those of you postulating about whether the 'ping' paging addresses from the aircraft's SATCOM system reporting would contain GPS, flight level, speed, heading, etc.....it clearly didn't because it didn't pass over ANY data string. Get it into your heads, as confirmed officially, the airline was not signed up for this aircraft to pass SATCOM data of this type to Boeing.
is TRUE.

But there were other recipients than Boeing of data transmissions (via ground station or SATCOM). These include RR, who have confirmed that they received the first two normal transmissions.

[toffeez]

"Could MH370, if it had been flying for 4-5 hours have successfully landed on a 4500' runway at sea level?"

Yes, but it would have to be a real pilot with some practice at same.

[papershuffler]

The ping with time, direction, speed, altitude comes from a source other than Rolls Royce.

What we know as a consequence of the US analysis is the location at the last ping, its then current time, direction, speed, altitude and when the engines were switched off. Does the ping include identity information though?



From post on flyertalk:

India Expands Search for Missing MH370 in Bay of Bengal Sea BFW 12:30
Indian Navy Confident Missing Plane Not Near Andaman Islands BFW 12:15
*INDIA HAS CONTINUOUS RADAR DETECTION SYSTEM CLOSE TO ANDAMAN BN 12:04
*INDIAN NAVY OFFICIAL COMMENTS ON SEARCH FOR MISSING MH370 PL... BN 12:04
*INDIAN NAVY CONFIDENT MISSING PLANE NOT NEAR ANDAMAN ISLANDS BN 12:04
*INDIAN RADARS WOULD HAVE DETECTED PLANE IF IT ENTERED ANDAMAN BN 12:04


March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Indian Navy is confident missing
Malaysian Airline flight 370 not near Andaman Islands because it
would have been detected by radar, said a naval official, who
declined to be identified as the official isn’t authorized to
discuss the matter publicly.
• Says the area is a key shipping route, heavily patrolled by navy to prevent pirate attacks
• There is continuous radar detection system close to Andaman Islands that would have picked up the planeSomewhat contradictory; for them to be searching in the Bay of Bengal, the plane would have had to circumvent the Andaman Islands?

Other radar coverage info:
Vietnam - Products & Services (http://www.vatm.vn/ProductsServices/tabid/175/aid/175/language/en-US/Default.aspx)

[answer=42]

@papershuffler
Yes, it must do. The primary purpose is to provide information for maintenance of the particular aircraft.
Someone with more knowledge than I posted ages ago about the data packet structure and encryption.

[kenjaDROP]

@papershuffler

Does the ping include identity information though?

It would be better if it did, but, in a way, it doesn't have to include identity, if you think about it. If, after all the data analysis, the sat monitoring of the pings produced the track of an aircraft (carrying the capability to ping this system), non-identifiable*, in this region, then you could take a fair guess it could be MH370.

*non-identifiable via passive radar/ATC, that is.

[ChicoG]

This captain was a true Aviator who loved his job and who loved his plane and who loved flying. And he was one who believed in sharing the dream with the simulation community and had FUN doing it. I also understand he was involved with one company who makes high fidelity flight sim products.

No, aviation today does not only consist of people who can't wait for retirement, some people actually love their job. Some of them fly warbirds, some of them have a private Cessna and others have a flight sim. If that makes them suspects, then I don't know who we should trust to fly our airliners. I think we sometimes forget that there are people who genuinely love flying and live their dream in every way they can. God bless them, there are enough others too.

I really don't think someone who has a Flight Sim at home for sinister purposes would be broadcasting the fact, along with all the hardware that he's bought to put it together (sounds like he built his own -rather impressive - Gaming PC for this purpose), and more importantly using his own name.

He's obviously a really keen gamer and SIM'er, so people that keep harping on about this point really aren't doing themselves any favours.

Background chatter that can be turned down I think.

[philipat]

Why do you posters keep going over the same ground asking about data transfer from the aircraft?!

Because the Americans state this is what they have? It might be triangulated from data collected by other Spook satellites so don't expect them to be too specific.

[Comanche]

I totally disagree with you, you're making judgement on a person based on your own experience or that of other (potentially) burned out drivers (often with long careers at regional level).

I know of a pilots with 14K+ totally absorbed by their r/c hobby or flight sim hobby, building and developing planes in both. Capt Shah was even cooperating and helping a flight sim software developer to produce T7 sims.

Professional pilots flying flight sims at home - in the short haul sector at least - is more of an exception then a rule. Or at least pilots don't tell, don't ask. Admittedly, the long haul sector I know little about and perhaps the lack of landings/take offs - and my imagination may be able to stretch so far - is reason for having fun in a computer sim. If capt Shah had a business or interest on the side helping to develop sims, now that is an ENTIRELY different story and I would cordially withdraw any of my comments if that's the case.

[Hornbill88]

All through this tragic and appalling episode I have been most persuaded by the simplest solution - catastrophic malfunction, pilot tries to go back to KL, passes out and plane flies on in straight line until fuel runs out.

But I do wonder:

1 why Hashimmuddin is so evasive on background checks on crew. Maybe it is a "police matter" as he says but he is big shot enough to get the police to report, unless they have already done so and he doesn't like the answers. Ditto for the pilot's sim - seems not unreasonable to me that he should have one at home, so why not just go and take a look at what's there?

2 why no-one has said what's in the cargo - though to be fair, I'm not sure that anyone other than posters on this site has asked. The journalists certainly haven't at the last two news conferences.

3 what is the source of this notion of zig-zagging round the waypoints in the Andaman Sea and tracking the SQ flight? I can't find the original post, which might (very reasonably) have been deleted, I have only seen the comments which sound totally bizarre.

[James7]

Not sure if all or any DME stations have recording facilities but it could be possible to ID an aircraft from the DME pulses. Each DME transmits an unique set of pulses specifics to the transceiver.

The pilots obviously knew what they were doing if it is eventually found out that it was stolen / hijacked. My guess anyway.

Probably used JepView on an iPad connected to a Bluetooth GPS to navigate.
If the guy was into flight sim etc, no doubt had Jeppersen on his iPad. Or any other multitude of standalone map apps.

No need for any Flight management transmissions to give their position away.

[thcrozier]

Way way back in this thread, someone posted a nice map showing a corridor with no overlapping radar coverage on the MP. That was when there were only vague suggestions of a primary paint turning back to the Northwest.

Can't find it now. Anyone have the post #?

Peninsula

[SMOC]

Their background should be checked, their houses searched, the flight simulator carefully scrutinised etc etc - in the hope that some clue to this mystery, however small, may be turned up.

Agree, however the posts here using the simulator as proof of foul play are a joke, as it's been said people have hobbies, private planes, radio controlled, all sorts just because it's different to others doesn't make it evidence.

If he had a SCUBA qualification and crashed in the water then he must be guilty, imagine if he did skydiving as a hobby.

[dmba]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BirwabjCIAACtVF.png:large

[MPN11]

Way way back in this thread, someone posted a nice map showing a corridor with no overlapping radar coverage on the MP. That was when there were only vague suggestions of a primary paint turning back to the Northwest.

Can't find it now. Anyone have the post #?... this one? http://www.pprune.org/8368697-post2138.html

[mabuhay_2000]

Whilst I would search the homes of the two flight crew, it would be to eliminate, as things stand now.

Having dealt with thousands of criminals, bigtime and smalltime, my instinct on this is that the crew were not involved. They are clearly both intelligent men and would be highly unlikely to do anything so stupidly obvious as to build. A simulator in their house and tell the world. They'd do it on the QT. And the pics I've seen, where he shows all the PC hardware in boxes is not in keeping with a criminal mastermind, just a bloke who loved his hobby.

[lapp]

Once the aircraft was low enough and in range of mobile phone masts then all mobile phones could be tracked and positioned with some degree of accuracy.


There are no towers in the ocean.

The phone does not even have to be on. Just the battery installed.
Wrong, phones off or in airplane mode do not make any network activity whatsoever.

Once a few mobile numbers of the pax have been identified, pretty simple task, then the position of these phones should be easy to locate
So catch a fly to KL, join the investigation, they will tell you the clown you are instead of me.

[fox niner]

So did they make it to IGREX or was that the last TO waypoint? Or did they get any further according to the pings?

[ildarin]

Commander:

Quote:
I've been flying commercial (747 and AB340s) for longer than I care to admit, and I have a flightsim at home in the basement. Does that make me crazy or a criminal?
Not at all. It means you don't have much of a life. :DI got one - computer FMS simulator only. It's a waste of time to use a multimullion level D dollar simulator to practise punching buttons.

Came in handy when I took a B-717 recurrent ride and the powers that be stuck a DC-9 pilot in the right seat (hey, it's the same type rating, isn't it?)

[James7]

Lapp.

You are incorrect. Even with the phone off, it can be activated by suitable equipment and the mic turned on. Someone can listen in to your conversation.

The only way to deactivate the phone is to take the battery out and this is an absolute fact! Google it if you don't believe me. Mobile phones are a tracking device off or on. Fact!

Of course not over the ocean but it was reported to be flying over land.

Pax families will have phone numbers.

[bille1319]

I doubt if all the pax were duped. I usually carry a hand held satnav which works fine by a window seat. Surely there must have been a few awake by the window seats could see that the a/c had changed course dramatically and it being a half moon that night would cast changing shadows on the wing. Therefore it would seem to me that intervention by the pax is highly likely at the later end.

[ManaAdaSystem]

MS Flight simulator is history. It was taken over by Lockheed Martin, and is promoted as a training tool.
As for the 777: This is a picture of a MS Flight simulator addon from PMDG. It is not just eye candy, it has a programmable FMC, nearly all switches work as they do in a real cockpit. TCAS works. You can simulate failures. You can autoland. All APFD modes work. Autobrakes, autospoilers, cockpit lights. LNAV/VNAV. Radios. Transponder. All displays work. You can download realtime weather. Download nav database which is just the same as the one you got in the real aircraft. You can set it up as a virtual cockpit with the right equipment. Look around the cockpit by turning your head.
Ii is not a toy, it is usable as a training tool on your home PC at the fraction of the cost of a real simulator.

http://www.precisionmanuals.com/img/product/lightbox/777lrf/pmdg_777_VC_gate.jpg

[thcrozier]

MPN11

Similar, but the one I'm thinking of also showed the coverage coming down from Thailand, depicting an uncovered "corridor" at about 10N.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

As noted by the Indian navy is virtually impossible that the plane was able to enter the surveillance zone without being detected
The area Andaman Nicobars is a sensitive place under high supervision by the navy based in Port Blair