Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[SOPS]

Ok, so if it caught fire, it would not have stayed airborne for hours. So where is the wreckage?

[Lost in Saigon]

Been answered before, so I suspect this will b yet another short lived answer but....

No need to switch the Xpdr to standby on modern kit of the type installed on the T7, you just punch in the new code..

This FO was new to the aircraft. Was he even told there was no need? Even if he was, old habits are hard to break.

[Coagie]

Ok, so if it caught fire, it would not have stayed airborne for hours. So where is the wreckage? How do you know it didn't burn itself out before doing too much damage? The plane could have flown itself until it's fuel was exhausted.

[Coagie]

This FO was new to the aircraft. Was he even told there was no need? Even if he was, old habits are hard to break. Good point.

[SOPS]

Ok, point taken.

[1a sound asleep]

This FO was new to the aircraft. Was he even told there was no need? Even if he was, old habits are hard to break.

Does anybody have a source to establish exactly how many flight hours he has on the 777?

[Rightbase]

Capt Kremin

Constant magnetic headings over this scale are indeed weird.

First, wind drift leads to a non-recoverable drift of longitude coordinate.

Second the longitude drift rate for given wind strength increases as latitude becomes more polar.

So the westerlies could have more effect on the longitude of the end point than the easterlies.

So a more Westerly heading would be needed to arrive in the same place.

And the aircraft would arrive there on a more Westerly heading - ie on a heading nearer to the direct track.

It's a rhumb world.

[don't trust anybody]

There is a lot of talk about decompression and the subsequent affects of hypoxia on crew and passengers.
There is another possible cause for crew incapacitation, which is insidious and can appear similar in nature to hypoxia- cabin air contamination.

[misd-agin]

Does anybody have a source to establish exactly how many flight hours he has on the 777?


Richard Quest was on one of his training flights in Feb (19th). So he had one to maybe three months experience on the 777.


First officer on missing jet was transitioning to 777-200s - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/08/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-first-officer/)

[Sheep Guts]

Ok, so if it caught fire, it would not have stayed airborne for hours. So where is the wreckage?

SOPS,
They did stop searching in the South China Sea about 10 days ago. Did they cover it all, did all countries check their waters and coastlines. Answer IS no because they were all told to stop due the Sat data. Well IMHO the SATCOM installation which is above the economy section in B777 at the back of the aircraft could have still been pinging as wreckage in the ocean which subsequently sunk after 08:11. The only thing needed for accurate handshakes is ADIRU info for direction. If this ADIRU info was cut surely it would still handshake at its last recorded position of the satellite MAY NOT BE STRONG SIGNAL but floating in the sea it would vary in strength. The Satcom installation in the B777 is totally autonomous to the rest of the avionics which are located in the pointed end of the jet. It has its own power supply, battery is close by Rack E10, SDU Satellite Data Unit, BSU Beam steering unit ( which would be stuck in one position after no ADIRU info)in Rack E11. They will have to retrace their searches and cover new areas in the South China Sea and Malacca straits, this time Thailand needs to be included. All options are still on the table.
Formation Drivers theory on an intense Lithium Ion battery fire in the forward cargo and then burning antenna connections or boxes in or near the forward avionics is still plausible. Loss of the Transponder and the VHF effectively simultaneously would indicate some coaxial junction box may have been damaged.

[Livesinafield]

The live ATC archive has vanished of their website, anyone else see this?

[Lost in Saigon]

Does anybody have a source to establish exactly how many flight hours he has on the 777?


Richard Quest was on one of his training flights in Feb (19th). So he had one to maybe three months experience on the 777.


First officer on missing jet was transitioning to 777-200s - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/08/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-first-officer/)

Was the FO finished with his training? Has it been established whether or not this was a Line Indoctrination flight?

The Captain was an examiner so there is a good chance the FO was not fully qualified yet.

[Bobman84]

How do you know it didn't burn itself out before doing too much damage? The plane could have flown itself until it's fuel was exhausted.

Does not explain anything as a fire to destroy all communication etc would also render the plane's hydraulic systems and electrics to fail too, making the plane unable to continue flying for long.

Seriously, how can you believe such a theory when it turned around as we know, but not towards the airport?

Compare that to other major fires where communication of the situation on board was relayed to ATC (SR111 & SA295).

[Lost in Saigon]

Is it known what type of transponder MH370 had?

There are at least two configurations that I know of. One has a keypad and one has rotary selectors. Do they both automatically go to "Standby" while a new code is being selected?

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y17/msowsun/photo%20stuff/Photo14/_atc1a.jpg~original

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y17/msowsun/photo%20stuff/Photo14/_atc2a.jpg~original

[GlueBall]

Do they both go to "Standby" when a new code is selected?

I have operated both types and not ever gone to STBY to select a new code.

[Lost in Saigon]

That doesn't answer the question as to whether or not they "automatically" go to standby while selecting a new code.

[Uncle Fred]

Excellent work Capt Kremin. Very nice graphic.

I think that many of us who fly the 777 for a living agree with you. The AP is going to follow a limited number of lateral inputs--LNAV, HDG HOLD, HDG SEL, TRK, or LOC. Plus, for LNAV we know that it is a three-step process of selecting the waypoint, executing it, and then selecting LNAV on the MCP. How many times have we had that drilled into us about "Execute then LNAV?"

At the very least, the initial turn off course and the entering and/or selection of new waypoints reveals very deliberate actions--by whom I will leave open pending further discovery and investigation. I think however, that many posters have overlooked just how deliberate those actions need to be and that they were most likely not the result of a happenstance case of hypoxia or fire brigade duties...

[CowgirlInAlaska]

Livesinafield The live ATC archive has vanished of their website, anyone else see this?

I found it here, live: LiveATC.net Worldwide Airport Coverage Map (http://www.liveatc.net/feedmap/feedmap.html)
and archives ATC Audio Archives | LiveATC.net (http://www.liveatc.net/archive.php)

I've listened to most of the recordings for 3/7 and 3/8, and can't find that flight on Kuala Lumpar / WMKK ATC. Am I not looking in the right place or is it gone? I remember that the original news report said it "lost contact" with Subang (or Sepang?), so he took off under WMKK who passed him to that SZB and then contact was lost or? I couldn't find ATC for the "Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport" aka SZB.

[RobertS975]

It does get tiring when we continually have to revise and dismiss the data that we thought we knew for certain. Agree with previous poster... only certainty is that a B777 is missing.

So now the previous data that the turn inputs into the FMS that supposedly happened before the final voice transmission may not have happened after all.

[Towhee]

. According to the World Health Organization, the rate of suicide in Malaysia is close to the lowest on the planet; a tenth or so of rates in European countries.

But, is this due to Malaysia's measurement criteria? In a society where suicide is taboo (and not saying this applies), facts on the ground may be interpreted to uphold the norms. Durkheim spoke to this in his classic Suicide.

The rate of suicide-by-loaded-aircraft amongst pilots is vanishingly low as well; statistically it's zero plus noise. Pilot suicide is a highly unlikely explanation for this incident. Unfortunately, so are all the other possible explanations.

The commercial aircraft accident rate is also vanishingly small, too, isn't it? What % of this rate is due to pilot suicide?

As for the culture of suicide - I think the opposite... I think that in countries such as Malaysia etc, the pride and prestige of being an airline pilot is still very high compared to the western world where it seems to have been devalued...

Agree. But perhaps this introduces other issues. Malaysia is still a traditional society, wherein individuals reach various developmental milestones at an earlier age, as the West did years ago. So, one marries at 20, is a grandparent at 53. At the same time, individuals on certain career paths --whether young women working in MNC assembly plants, or pilots flying international routes-are exposed to Western values and lifestyles. This presents problems for the young women, who are sometimes 'ruined'. They may no longer fit in to the society within which they're trapped. Could this apply to pilots as well?

SIM cards...I was able to purchase a microSIM for my unlocked cell at an airport kiosk in KK recently, without showing any ID. I paid for it in ringgits. Only Mexico seems to strictly enforce an ID requirement.

[GarageYears]

That doesn't answer the question as to whether or not they "automatically" go to standby while selecting a new code.

Yes, they do go into standby as soon as the code selector knobs or buttons are active. In the case of the keypad, it releases as soon as the 4th digit is entered, and the rotary has a 3-5 sec timeout.

[GlueBall]

So now the previous data that the turn inputs into the FMS that supposedly happened before the final voice transmission may not have happened after all.

What difference would that make...? You can turn the jet WITHOUT inputs to the FMS.

[kjblair]

It didn't crash into the South China Sea. The plane still had power at 8:11 when the last "ping" occurred. You can't make a connection with the Inmarsat satellite without having power. That is, unless you're postulating that the plane remained intact with power and then disappeared below the surface.

[OleOle]

Capt Kremin,

excellent post. Probably the unpublished ping arcs fit quite exactly your 197 solution. Would that be the HDG to return from IGARI to KUL ??

That may be the reason why all SAR is concentrated south.

Tim Vasquez has something identified, that could be a contrail belonging to the HDG 197 solution. INHO a must read:

Investigation of a possible "southern arc" contrail from Malaysia Flight 370 - 8 March 2014 - Weather Graphics (http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/contrail.shtml)

http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/io-route-sum.gif

[rampstriker]

I've listened to most of the recordings for 3/7 and 3/8, and can't find that flight on Kuala Lumpar / WMKK ATC. Am I not looking in the right place or is it gone? I remember that the original news report said it "lost contact" with Subang (or Sepang?), so he took off under WMKK who passed him to that SZB and then contact was lost or? I couldn't find ATC for the "Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport" aka SZB.

MH370 departed to the East. Live ATC only covers North & West Sectors.

[kwh]

Although if a country under the possible northern flight path had not wanted to say 'Our Air Defense Radar in that sector went u/s 3 months ago and we can't afford to repair it right now' then 'Our military radar didn't detect MH370' is an entirely accurate but also entirely useless answer...

[Heli-phile]

Excellent post. A/P systems mode knowledge plus navigation basic principles create a very convincing case. Thank you.

[Kooljack]

oldoberon:-

The fact that it was 370 was confirmed at a mid week conference by the minister based on a variety of data, so your sleepy byes argument is like most of your argument....

I disagree....the Chief of Air Force when asked by the media at that time, if the Air Force Radar Operator saw the air turn-back (i.e. in real-time), answered "No! We only saw a recording!"

[MarkJJ]

Any chance the INS would have become primary navigation means due to a loss of GPS? Flying ref ADIRU only?

[ATC Watcher]

On French radio a spokeperson from the Sat company operating the satellite in question said that what they saw was a cluster of debris, but that included " a wooden pallet and some tighting ropes of different colors "...

If this is true , the international show will have to go on a little longer...

As to debating if a transponder go stand by automatically when changing squawks,:rolleyes: what is the relevance ? It will not tell you if the aircraft is there , or in the North arc , or in the forest of an isolated island somewhere .

[aviator1970]

unlikely..no nose wheel brakes... so very low probability for heating....why fire?

[OPENDOOR]

....an entirely accurate but also entirely useless answer...

Probably drafted by a room full of lawyers...

[threemiles]

I've listened to most of the recordings for 3/7 and 3/8, and can't find that flight on Kuala Lumpar / WMKK ATC. Am I not looking in the right place or is it gone? I remember that the original news report said it "lost contact" with Subang (or Sepang?), so he took off under WMKK who passed him to that SZB and then contact was lost or? I couldn't find ATC for the "Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport" aka SZB.

Scan through previous posts and you will find that the aircraft was on another frequency than the one archived.

[aviator1970]

@MarkJJ
ny chance the INS would have become primary navigation means due to a loss of GPS? Flying ref ADIRU only?

No INS exists onboard... IRS exists... and incase GPS signals are shielded or unable for any reason... it will automatically revert to IRS as a primary source mode of navigation. but RNAV means of terrestrial aids such as VOR DME will be used to more accurately position fix.

[stadedelafougere]

One question from an engineer, and to the aerodynamicists here:
If we assume the aircraft ran out of fuel, but was correctly trimmed in the final stages of the flight, the aircraft would stall from high altitude.
If we also assume that there were no crew inputs at this time of the flight, and because commercial airplanes are stable by design, I believe the aircraft would have started descending and entered some sort of small amplitude (due to stable design) phugoid mode at speeds close to Vs and kept in that kind of mode until reaching sea level.
What would be the aircraft attitude upon reaching sea level (order of magnitude of the pitch angle?)

[BWV 988]

hamster3null replied:

current search is based on the premise that the debris drifted substantially to the southeast in two weeks since the crash. They are searching way outside the arcs by now.

Yes, but many posts ago, the mechanism for excluding (western) parts of the 40 degree 00:11 UTC ping arch wasn't clear. With a big search going on this far east, MH370's previous (yet unknown) pings would appear a good reason why.

The speculation about piggybacking another flight to exit SE Asia for a sustained period of time can also be put to rest as the possible candidates flew on more westerly and therefore ping-incompatible headings.

[SOPS]

As we have said before, the 777 won't stall. the FBW won't let it. And even if both engines fail, the RAT will provide power to autopilot and hydraulics. It will decend at a shallow angle, basically.

[Pontius Navigator]

but RNAV means of terrestrial aids such as VOR DME will be used to more accurately position fix. Which of course are limited to line of sight or roughly around 200 miles maximum. They also need operator input.

[Albert Driver]

Just when you thought you'd finally drowned it, the issue of fire just keeps on springing up

So, for the benefit of non-pilots, let's talk about fire - from the point of view of this former 747-400 commander's experience.

Cargo Fire:
The T7 is fully equipped with cargo fire detection and suppression for some 30 minutes or so (T7 drivers will fill in the number).
I've had a cargo fire warning. It rattles your eyeballs and soaks you with adrenaline. You can't ignore it. You do the drill and fire the bottles, put out a Mayday, ask for radar assistance, point the aircraft at a runway and get going down (in whichever order is appropriate, or all at once). It's just like we regularly practice in the sim. Mine turned out to be a false warning - but still......
In the position of MH370 there would have been radar assistance, a choice of runways within the fire suppression time available supported by the familiarity of being near base.
There is no way a cargo fire caused the loss of MH370, with no Mayday call, plenty of assistance available and time in hand to land.

Wheel bay fire:
If there had been a fire in the wheel bay the crew would have known about it from the sensors immediately after take-off. They would not have got as far as leaving departure control without asking for a return to land. Let's put this one to bed.

Flight-deck fire:
If a fire occurs behind a flight-deck instrument panel you know about it immediately. From experience, you smell it and see the smoke long before it takes hold. This type of fire can be difficult to deal with but there are extinguishers and axes/jemmies to hand. Oxygen masks on, Mayday, descent and diversion by the handling pilot while the other crew member(s) deal with the problem, is the response. There may be loss of some services depending on which panel is affected but at the end of the day the handling pilot can just take out the autopilot and fly the aeroplane, for which radar assistance resulting from that Mayday call is most helpful. Provided the fire is controlled to keep the smoke down and a runway is within reach there is no reason why a safe landing should not result.
For the reasons given for Cargo fire, a flight-deck fire did not cause the loss of MH370.

Electrics Compartment fire:
I've experienced smoke in the electrics bay. The compartment has a high airflow for cooling purposes and we smelt it on the flight-deck immediately, before there was any visible smoke. A quick check of the flight-deck panels, a zoom out into the cabin to check for smoke. a call to the galley-slaves to check the galley equipment - and it became immediately apparent where it must be coming from. In my case the appropriate CBs tripped themselves and the problem solved itself but in a more severe case it would be little different to the flight-deck fire case as above, except for some small extra difficulty of access (although our engineer was down there like a mole in a hole).
For the same reasons an electrics bay fire did not cause the loss of MH370.

Cabin fire:
Causes can be many. I've experienced a small furnishings fire (caused by an illegal cigarette we think). Smoke identified the source long before fire took hold. The cabin crew were on to it straight away with more extinguishers carried to the scene than I thought existed on the aircraft!
I've also had an electrical cabin fire. That was more difficult to locate as the smoke was distributed by the recirc fans. It eventually scorched a side panel revealing itself and the cabin crew pounced upon it relishing, it seemed, the opportunity to use the axe to get to it! We were already on approach by then but I'm confident that had we been in the middle of the Atlantic we would have dealt with it just as safely.

Incendiary devices:
In the cargo hold it becomes just another cargo fire, unless it is also an explosive device, in which case case the aircraft either breaks up (which we know MH370 did not do initially) or it may cause a decompression as well as a fire. In the latter case the fire suppression systems would likely be rendered inoperative or ineffective - clearly a more critical case. But pilots practice loss of cabin pressurisation drills frequently. If this had happened and the aircraft survived the initial explosion and the emergency descent they were still within range of a runway and they would have declared an emergency. Pilots do not forget to put on oxygen masks. In this case you just need a closer runway - and MH370 had one.
In the cabin, it's just a bigger fire. Trust me, the cabin crew will be there with extinguishers within seconds. There are more than enough extinguishers around.
If it is also an explosive device then we are back to the cargo hold explosion situation as above. The cabin crew may be stunned and react slowly but the flight crew will descend the aircraft and declare an emergency. There is no evidence that happened in this case.

The point I am making is that all fires on aircraft can be dealt with by the crew. There is ample equipment on board and sufficient crew members trained to use it. The problem is not in dealing with the initial fire but whether there is a runway close enough to use while the fire remains suppressed. That is what causes hull losses due to fire in flight. In the case of MH370 there was a choice of places to go and a radar controller to talk to and get help from.

[stadedelafougere]

@SOPS

Thanks for the answer. I'm not familiar with the T7 protection laws and only have basic knowledge of Airbus ones. So stall protection is not lost even if engines are not running on T7.

Could the 'shallow' descent also mean survivable aircraft attitude and speed upon reaching sea level?

[eezeegeebee]

From waypoint IGREX to waypoint SPOLE (South Pole) how close would that put the aircraft to the final ping mentioned.

I was just about to post a reply which would answer that question with a map. The answer is that at 468kts after 5.5 hours it should be at about

-32.050, 97.68333

which is comfortably inside the last ping zone. If someone would care to provide better estimate for the endurance at IGREX and the forecast G/S I'll come back with an even more accurate position.

If, and it's a big if of course, there was some human control over the direction it took from the LKP, using NAV mode to a far-away waypoint would guarantee a straight line GC and therefore the greatest distance. What better than a pilot waypoint at 90S?

[PorcoRosso]

As we have said before, the 777 won't stall. the FBW won't let it. And even if both engines fail, the RAT will provide power to autopilot and hydraulics. It will decend at a shallow angle, basically.

You mean, like an A330 ? I think Airbus was more or less, positive on that as well : the FBW will prevent a stall . We know that it's not entirely true .

I do not know the 777, but I think I remember someone stated that there is an alternate law mode, which does not guarantee AoA prot .

[offa]

A fire doesn't necessarily means it will bring the aircraft down .... depends what's burning or smoldering? It could be producing enough toxic fumes or floating debris that it incapacitates everyone onboard. Remember the Helderberg when most (all?) the passengers died from smoke inhalation and toxic fumes from smoldering plastics. OK the tail came off eventually but possibly in MH730's case the fire just smouldered away or even burnt itself out? Transponder could be coincidental or tripped from a fire in FWD belly and close to the E&E compartment. Selecting HDG back toward base and FLCHG to e.g. FL100 would seem a normal action while actioning the fire / smoke checklist. If everyone was incapacitated in the meantime the aircraft would just continue at the selected altitude, heading and airspeed until it ran out of fuel at which point it would descend at the selected airspeed until it impacted the ocean and came apart.

[bratschewurst]

"According to the World Health Organization, the rate of suicide in Malaysia is close to the lowest on the planet; a tenth or so of rates in European countries."

But, is this due to Malaysia's measurement criteria? In a society where suicide is taboo (and not saying this applies), facts on the ground may be interpreted to uphold the norms. Durkheim spoke to this in his classic Suicide.A fair point. WHO data is self-reported by country. But suicide is taboo to some extent in most countries, including the 150 or so reporting higher suicide rates than Malaysia. I doubt that a 10-1 or 20-1 ratio would be explained entirely by reporting bias.

"The rate of suicide-by-loaded-aircraft amongst pilots is vanishingly low as well; statistically it's zero plus noise. Pilot suicide is a highly unlikely explanation for this incident. Unfortunately, so are all the other possible explanations. "
The commercial aircraft accident rate is also vanishingly small, too, isn't it? What % of this rate is due to pilot suicide?

I found 4 or 5 incidents of pilots deliberately flying aircraft with passengers into the ground over 30 years. I haven't tried to figure out how many fatal accidents there've been amongst airlines during the same period, but I know it's way, way more that that. Pilot suicide causes a tiny proportion of what is already a tiny number.

No one is arguing that pilot suicide is not a possible explanation for this event. But, when all the possible explanations are historically so improbable, I think it's a mistake to believe that one is less improbable than another. There's simply not enough data to come to any statistically meaningful conclusion. And it's really not fair to the two pilots in question, even though it is the conclusion that many people will draw if, as I believe is likely, the wreck site is never found.

There was a Northwest DC-6 that crashed into Lake Michigan in 1950 that still has not been found. The longer nothing is found on the surface, the harder it will be to locate the main wreckage.

If there's one lesson that must be taken from this incident, it is that the industry needs truly reliable tracking of commercial aircraft from takeoff to touchdown. The amount of bandwidth needed for such tracking is not large, especially if data was sent more often when the aircraft was not obviously in cruise (ie, constant heading, speed and altitude). Or, of course, such a system could be built on the existing ADS-B infrastructure. If something like that had been in place two weeks ago, the CVR and FDR would already be in the lab.

Disappearing aircraft and unsolved mysteries are very bad for business.

[Wizofoz]

I do not know the 777, but I think I remember someone stated that there is an alternate law mode, which does not guarantee AoA prot .

There is no AofA protection on the 777 in NORMAL law- it's quite different to the Airbus in that respect.

With the autopilot off, you can stall the aeroplane just like a Cessna. It will stop trimming near the stall, but if you keep pulling on the Control Column, you can stall it.

I didn't read the whole post this was in response to, but if the suggestion is that with the crew incapacitated, and the engines flamed out, the aircraft would continue on Autopilot with the RAT, that is entirely incorrect.

Firstly, if there is a power interruption on both main busses, the aircraft reverts to secondary control mode, and the Autopilot will not engage in that mode.

Once power is restored, primary mode and therefore autopilot capability can be restored, but only by pilot action.

HOWEVER- the RAT only provides a small amount of AC to a load-shed system- the Autopilot is NOT available on RAT power only.

In the event of a double flame-out, the APU automatically starts- but if the reason for the flameout is fuel exhaustion, the APU wouldn't start either.

If the aircraft flew on Autopilot until it's fuel was exhausted with unconscious pilots, it would have then entered a simple attitude holding mode, and descended wings level but otherwise uncontrolled.

[Lord Spandex Masher]

Why are we talking about stall protection?

If the aircraft was "trimmed correctly" and then ran out of fuel it would still be....trimmed correctly. It would descend at the trimmed speed until it hit whatever. It wouldn't stall.

[Cassini]

So SOPS if i understand you correctly, autopilot off, no protection from t7 fbw?
And if power is off (engines and apu off), ram can power adiru? If not, how is there autopilot available?

[aviator1970]

Being ETOPS 180/192 minutes.... it would have a seriously good fire extinguisher for a class E fire suppression system which would be a mix of heavy duty halon and metered discharge means of ensuring prevention of smoke entering the passenger areas, ensuring sufficient time to give r/t calls and worst case a planned ditching...

[Methersgate]

AFAIK (not pilot; containership ops) you cannot "suppress" a runaway lithium ion battery with Halon.

Lithium-Ion Battery Hazards | content content from Fire Protection Engineering (http://magazine.sfpe.org/content/lithium-ion-battery-hazards)

[oldoberon]

oldoberon:-



I disagree....the Chief of Air Force when asked by the media at that time, if the Air Force Radar Operator saw the air turn-back (i.e. in real-time), answered "No! We only saw a recording!"


pretty sure in a later post i stated he said confirmed by other data /sources. I was not meaning to say or imply they claimed they knew for 100% certain the next morning, although they did say contact lost over the Malacca straits. In the 1st instance that was contact of a return suspected to be 370, it was either the next or next but one they confirmed it was 370.

Do you believe it has never been confirmed?

[repulo]

I saw on a map that after the last contact it flew along/to waypoints. That doesn't make sense if a fire has been going on. Except if the FMC reverted to the second route loaded. Don't think its probable, but have to admit that I don't know the 777's FMC that well (737 pilot). To me it looks like someone knew what he was doing, at least navigation wise.

[RobertS975]

Glueball, of course you can make the left turn without the FMS. But previous and constant reporting over the past week stated that the left turn was programed into the FMS BEFORE the last voice transmission, the "Good night" transmission. That had tremendous implications that the intent to turn off course towards the west was established without the crew reporting anything out of the ordinary.

The left turn may now have been made in response to an emergency, not planned in advance. My larger point was that once again, what we thought we knew, what we thought was factual pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, turns out once again to apparently be false.

[aviator1970]

All recordings I have seen of radars are no less than the originals being replayed in a later time frame... quality or accuracy doesn't really suffer one bit... in fact one can slow it down pause etc...which might not be possible in real time so I think its a non issue..

[Pontius Navigator]

oldoberon, given I posted a link to the recognised air picture which showed MH370 by military track number and marked with an arrow some 200nm WNW of Butterworth - yes.

[Turbineernie]

Thanks for your clear and concise review about fire in the air.
What about about a slow incapacitation, by for example carbonmonoxide poisoning or other invisible products? (The garbled transmission, instinctively turning back not being able to iniate an emercengy descent could be compatable with such a sort of event.
Suggest we should all do some more proper brainstorming!
The WHAT IF and WHY BECAUSE type of thinking ,as the public would expect from professionals (leave the aliens where they belong )
My thoughts are with all the fine people from Malaysian Airlines who dearly miss their colleges

[Bergerie1]

Dear Albert Driver,


Thank you so much.


I also have been in an aircraft we thought was on fire (fortunately it wasn't) but all the smoke and fumes convinced us at the time it was. Thank you for bringing a massive dose of common sense and experience to this debate - I totally agree with you! There is only one priority - GET IT ON THE GROUND ASAP - and at the same time, try to put it out.

[Tourist]

Lord Spandex

If the aircraft was in trim with engines providing thrust, it would no longer be trimmed after engine failure.

[JamesGV]

@Pontius Navigator

Raised the point before re the Indian Navy base at Andaman and Nicobar Islands. You said "its for maritime" (didn't have time to get back).

"The Naval chief said that one of the primary functions of INS Baaz would be to provide information, based on ‘airborne’ maritime surveillance. “Maritime domain awareness is the key to effective and informed decision making in the maritime arena. Despite numerous advancements in the field of information gathering over sea, airborne surveillance, using aircraft and UAVs, remains invaluable,’’ he said".

Guess they "don't" have "Primary" then ???
That's how they "missed" them :oh:

[Chronus]

The dissertation by Messrs. Engin Uzuncaova and Miguel A. Ayola, in their paper titled Boeing 777 Flight Control System, gives a useful overview of the FBW system used for the first time on a commercial airliner. Section 4 deals with Safety Analysis and states that the probability of a given failure condition is consistent with its severity, and that all failure combinations producing a catastrophe are extremely improbable.

The paper may be found at.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.86.8618&rep=rep1&type=pdf

If we accept that the aircraft remained airborne for the whole period of its endurance, then it would be safe to assume that its electrical primary flight control system remained operative throughout the whole of this period. The crew were for reasons yet unknown were unable to divert it from its last assigned course and robotics became their master. Such a scenario does give rise to concerns over total reliance on automation and its implied dependence on electical power. In a similar vein I do recall there was, some years back, a short spell of trying to replace the old clicking cog mags with electronic ignition for light piston aircraft, it was soon abandoned.
What with first for FBW and all computer design, have we heard anything at all from the folks at Seattle. I just wondered whether they have made any comment at all.

[Wirbelsturm]

If the aircraft was in trim with engines providing thrust, it would no longer be trimmed after engine failure
The 777 uses an automatic speed trimmer, it would still continue to trim even after an engine failure. If hydraulics & electrics were still available after a double engine failure (Auto RAT deployment or high windmill speed) the system and the autopilot would remain engaged and try to maintain the assigned flight profile.

[fireloop]

The 777 uses an automatic speed trimmer...

(Auto RAT deployment or high windmill speed) the system and the autopilot would remain engaged and try to maintain the assigned flight profile.

If you don't know for sure... don't post.

A/P will disengage.
After fuel starvation it becomes a big glider... gliding all the way down at the speed with which it was happily cruising along.

[JamesGV]

Pontius Navigator

I agree...but Campbell Bay, Camorta, Car Nicobar, Port Blair, Diglipur.
All "asleep".

[Lord Spandex Masher]

Lord Spandex

If the aircraft was in trim with engines providing thrust, it would no longer be trimmed after engine failure.

Good point. I thought the post everyone was responding to (which I can't find now) intimated that it was trimmed correctly after the engines had failed.

In your case wouldn't it be less likely to stall as the loss of thrust would cause a nose down response anyway?

[awblain]

(can only downlink pictures when in range of an earth station)

I think you'll find that more sophisticated space imagery users have high-bandwidth relay satellites. Sensitive information need never travel down from low Earth orbit.

As to changing orbit - it can be done, but unless it's a pressing urgent life-threatening need, just wait for the orbit to come good.

Good to see that there's apparently some French radar data being reported. I trust it's close in time to the crash, and might provide a chance to find the sea floor wreck, and with it the data recorders.

[papershuffler]

Here's one for you to tear apart (please excuse the vague nature of the question, I'm trying to not direct you down any particular line of enquiry):

Can you think of any possible reasons for which a pilot could have thought he were communicating correctly with an ATC but wasn't receiving acknowledgements, or attempting to make contact and failing?

[Kooljack]

If, and a big if, Malaysia Airlines was carrying something dangerous, but proclaimed not dangerous due all ICAO/IATA regulations having been complied with, then you need your memory refreshed with this incident on 15 March 2000 which totalled one of their A330-332 - 9M-MKB:-

After arrival from a flight from Beijing, baggage handlers were unloading 80 canisters weighing 2,000kg when they were hit by the strong toxic fumes. Five ground handlers became ill while unloading the canisters.
A check by airport fire and rescue personnel revealed the canisters contained a chemical called oxalyl chloride. Several canisters had leaked, causing severe damage to the aircraft fuselage. The aircraft was considered damaged beyond repair.
After a five-year lawsuit a Beijing court ordered Dalian, a Chinese state-run company, to pay USD65 million in compensation, plus interest, for destroying the Airbus A330 with falsely declared cargo with corrosive chemicals. The company had mis-identified the canisters as being a safe powder-type chemical.
(ASN Aircraft accident Airbus A330-322 9M-MKB Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KUL) (http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20000315-0))

I was told the sheet-metal toolboxes belonging to the mechanics who went into the hold to check on the damage, disintegrated due to corrosion within a matter of hours!

[deadheader]

With an open mind to all possibilities, the skipper's call from a fraudulently-obtained phone story appears to be gathering momentum: Flight MH370: Pilot's last phone call - World - NZ Herald News (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11224831)

[Chronus]

Swissair 111 offers the best comparison for a hypothesis. The electrical short caused a fire, which was detected by the crew 53 minutes after departure. 13 minutes after that a rapid succession of aircraft systems failure were recorded on the FDR`s. About a minute later comms and SSR were lost. About five minutes later the aircraft crashed into the sea. The crew must have become incapacitated in that time frame of 14 minutes. In the case of Swissair 111 the fire was all too consuming so as to incapacitate not only the crew but also the aircraft.

In such a scenario, in the case of MH370, it follows that the crew alone must have been incapacitated, the aircraft`s flight control systems must have proven sufficently robust and in conformity with their manufacturing specifications and design criteria for the aircraft to have remained aloft for such a long time thereafter. In such a scenario a ground alert system for crew incapacitation, and for its associated remote and/or on board auto electronic reversionary activation and control system ( analogous to drivers safety device "DSD", also known as a dead mans handle on trains and kill switch on boats) could provide a further redundancy measure for future flight safety. In the case of Swissair 111 the recommendations had also referred to a cockpit camera, installed as part of a such a system, along with continuous flight monitoring, would also be a further deterrent to unlawful intereference with an aircraft by any persons on board.

[LowObservable]

MH370: Bad weather hinders search for missing plane after new satellite images | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/23/bad-weather-hinders-search-missing-plane-mh370)

Mere SLF here - albeit 40-year, 2-million-plus-mile SLF - but I don't recall seeing a lot of wooden pallets being loaded on aircraft.

[MrDK]

I think the wreckage will never be found (if there is one).
The fact that US and UK are hardly participating in the primary search area, to me, is a sign that they know more.
Disclosing what they know could breach national security.
Maybe, just maybe, they are out there looking elsewhere and are keeping it under wraps.
US and UK militaries are usually eager to participate both in a supportive role and as a training exercise ... but not this time
Take a guess.
Maybe they are too busy?

http://i.imgur.com/nczeJj2.png

[compressor stall]

MrDK

You could just as easily argue the opposite.

eg. US UK know where it is, roughly. They had few citizens on board so politically and economically not worth sending more assets.

[donpizmeov]

Don't tell anyone, but the UK don't have any MPA anymore. So not much they can do to help with the search.

[henra]

If nothing else, this shows that a "ghost plane" would have taken a curved path to the crash site due to reversionary AP modes and changes in magnetic variation.

Any direct line over such a distance however, must be deliberate programming of the FMC.



Great post Capt Kremin!


Just a small remark/question: Do we have any somewhat reliable indication MH370 did in fact fly straight to this Point? I haven't really seen that mentioned and definitely not confirmed from a reliable source. Did I miss something?


Moreover, should Tim Vasquez be right with his contrail theory, it would look more like the curved line. The angle of that potential contrail in the Meteo Satellite image seems to match your curved line surprisingly well.

[Kooljack]

deadheader

With an open mind to all possibilities, the skipper's call from a fraudulently-obtained phone story appears to be gathering momentum: Flight MH370: Pilot's last phone call - World - NZ Herald News

Well, the media has certainly added some new spice to this whole enigma.....may not be close to the truth (as track-records has shown), but still spicy! ;)

[Cassini]

wirbelsturm, t7 is not auto trimed for speed change. Autopilot is not available on rat power. All mcp controls are dead and fbw is not available in normal mode.

[Ian W]

Swissair 111 offers the best comparison for a hypothesis. The electrical short caused a fire, which was detected by the crew 53 minutes after departure. 13 minutes after that a rapid succession of aircraft systems failure were recorded on the FDR`s. About a minute later comms and SSR were lost. About five minutes later the aircraft crashed into the sea. The crew must have become incapacitated in that time frame of 14 minutes. In the case of Swissair 111 the fire was all too consuming so as to incapacitate not only the crew but also the aircraft.

In such a scenario, in the case of MH370, it follows that the crew alone must have been incapacitated, the aircraft`s flight control systems must have proven sufficently robust and in conformity with their manufacturing specifications and design criteria for the aircraft to have remained aloft for such a long time thereafter. In such a scenario a ground alert system for crew incapacitation, and for its associated remote and/or on board auto electronic reversionary activation and control system ( analogous to drivers safety device "DSD", also known as a dead mans handle on trains and kill switch on boats) could provide a further redundancy measure for future flight safety. In the case of Swissair 111 the recommendations had also referred to a cockpit camera, installed as part of a such a system, along with continuous flight monitoring, would also be a further deterrent to unlawful intereference with an aircraft by any persons on board.


I think that your description adequately falsifies the fire hypothesis. Swissair 111 crashed inside 20 minutes of fire breaking out. In that time the crew had set up an approach but unfortunately extended it to dump fuel. They had lots of time to talk to ATC about their problem which got steadily worse with molten metal raining down from burning cables in the cockpit roof panels. So even in this really severe emergency they were able to communicate. Swissair 111 burnt out and crashed - it did not fly on for another 7 hours. You have to surmise a fire of Swissair 111 proportions and at the same time a fire that is not of Swissair 111 proportions. These are mutually exclusive states.


Albert Driver in post http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-380.html#post8396452 adequately covers fire issues.

[jmjdriver1995]

awblain at 1525 posted: ...As to changing orbit - it can be done, but unless it's a pressing urgent life-threatening need, just wait for the orbit to come good.


You can increase or decrease the altitude of orbiting satellites if you are willing to burn precious & limited fuel supply, but changing directions is EXTREMELY limited. Orbiting objects don't make right angle turns.

[awblain]

I'll stick my neck out and hazard that the French have had a good long look through their satellite radar and seen something interesting. If the US (and maybe Russia and China?) can do the same with their views within a few hours of impact, then the mystery might be coming to an end.

And there's still time to catch the sonar beacons in time to have some power left.

Then again, Titanic was found in the end, with only approximate chronometer/sextant positions, so it's not forever hopeless if a ~ten mile position is known.

[Kooljack]

Ian W
You have to surmise a fire of Swissair 111 proportions and at the same time a fire that is not of Swissair 111 proportions. These are mutually exclusive states.

An oxymoron....pun unintended. :rolleyes:

[The Ancient Geek]

The southern Indian Ocean is a remote area with no major shipping lanes. Ships travel slowly so only ships which are already in the area will join the search. The nearest UK or USA ships were probably a thousand miles away.
A chinese ship happened to be in the area and joined the search.

Simple - Anyone nearby will offer help, everything else would take too long to get there.

I am confident that if the USA were asked to provide extra aircraft they would send some, maybe nobody asked.

[InfrequentFlier511]

With an open mind to all possibilities, the skipper's call from a fraudulently-obtained phone story appears to be gathering momentum...


I think the media (and possibly the Malaysian government) are making too much of this. We know that Caprain Zaharie was somewhat politically outspoken; it stands to reason that some of his friends would be likewise. With a healthy amount of paranoia, an outspoken critic of the government may well prefer not to make it too easy for the government to listen in on their personal life. Bear in mind that Anwar himself has twice been imprisoned not for crimes against the state but for (alleged) aspects of his personal life.

I'm not suggesting that the Malaysian government is in any way complicit in the disappearance of MH370, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they found some way to leverage it for domestic political advantage. We have already seen attempts to link the incident to the good captain's political alignment.

[awblain]

Given the quality of the information that has made the current search area the current search area, a single P8 seems to be an appropriate commitment of resources from non-locals.

If and when there's definitely something to see, then a more substantial presence from the airframe and engine manufacturers could be justified.
A game of hunt the faint deep pinger would probably interest most well-equipped navies, with substantial kudos available to the winners; as well as the satisfaction of doing something very concrete for the safety of those millions that take to the air every day.

[TerryB]

GarageYears said:
Yes, they do go into standby as soon as the code selector knobs or buttons are active. In the case of the keypad, it releases as soon as the 4th digit is entered, and the rotary has a 3-5 sec timeout.

If it had a digital keypad and someone started entering a new four digit code but did not complete the entry (became incapacitated or just distracted by a bigger problem) does the transponder time-out and go back to the old code or just sit there in standby waiting for the last digit which never comes??

[737Jock]

For the purpose of this exercise, it is reminded that pilots, a long long time ago at the beginning of their careers, learnt to not just input bearings in an electronic device but also to calculate them by hand (bearings /speeds /distance), in such a way that I would expect any of you pilots to still be able to do the calculations in a second without paper and pencil, possibly in a split second. Without getting into complicated trig, recall that you subtracted various angles, the most common of which are 90°, 180°, 270° and 360°. In between, geometry remnants would kick some memories of angles such as 30°, 45° and their complements.

That would be a wrong assumption.

First of all we don't enter bearings into the FMC. We enter airways or waypoints, that are contained in a verified database, into the FMC. Bearings are barely ever used!

The biggest concern in everyday life regarding angles is that you don't bust your crosswind limitations, and on 99% of days thats not a concern either.

Doing complicated raw data VOR radial intercepts, or even holdings is not something that is done regularly (nor trained regularly) in modern aviation (bar maybe a few companies).

[imaynotbeperfect]

AUS press reported this morning (Monday) that Ocean Shield, an offshore support vessel with an underwater ROV on board and normally based in Sydney has been dispatched.

Its got a way to go, just entering Bass Strait. This link shows her current position

Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions - AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:149.8087/centery:-37.82912/zoom:8/oldmmsi:503728000/olddate:lastknown/_:9786067fe6e4e3f4755fab9643420856#)

[awblain]

Now the despatch of ROV operating ships indicates the commitment of real money, or at least an absence of other gainful work.

Sounds like evidence that's there's going to be something to find.

[wdew]

I see the Xue Long is in area already. Got there quick or left a while ago ....

[500N]

The other question is, what are the us going to send that would greatly enhance what is already here, considering they have already sent a P8.


AW
Re the Ocean Shield, sounds like good forward planning to me.

We (as in Aust) have only had it a short while and specifically purchased for Disasters and disaster relief. Heaps of deck space, accommodation, a helipad and ROV, all very useful if they find anything and for taking items from other ships that pick wreckage up.

[fred_the_red]

Is it safe to assume a) CO couldn't enter cabin (either from known (ie. engines) or unknown (cargo hold fire) combustion sources) and, b) if CO were present, a/c are fitted with appropriate detectors?

Thanks.

[500N]

I see the Xue Long is in area already. Got there quick or left a while ago ....



By coincidence, it was in port in Perth and restasked by China a few days ago to join in.

[mercurydancer]

Isaircrafts the only means?
UK sent a ship; would that bethe only one available?
The US could nearlyblanket the area, but no
Some countries with the most technology are taking an armslength here.
Not customary.

Not by any means. The US cannot be everywhere at every time. If you have not noticed there is a kerfuffule in Crimea that may require US ( and for that matter UK) assets to be deployed as close as they can.

Yes HMS Echo is the only UK ship that can get to that area within a matter of days. Other RN ships could not get there within weeks. How fast do you think ships move?

The US have not provided satellite imagery because the Chinese can see exactly what they see.

[awblain]

500N,

Fair enough... if it's a ship dedicated to accident investigation rather than a commercial vessel, then that's not so indicative that there is yet any work for it to do.

[mmurray]

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/24032014MediaUpdate13MH370.pdf

[max nightstop]

I can't see any way that CO could be present in the cabin. There are no detectors for it, because it isn't conceivable.

[grayton]

Now reported that military radar (whose?) showed MH370 making sharp turn & descending rapidly from 35k to 12k .

[compressor stall]

I see the Xue Long is in area already. Got there quick or left a while ago ....

The Xue Long is an Antarctic Supply Vessel run by CHINARE - Chinese Antarctic Research Expeditions. It runs from Perth to Xongshan, which is on the Antarctic coast, roughly under the mid Indian Ocean. Around 71E from memory.

[YYZjim]

The following figure shows the Earth from a vantage point above the west coast of Australia. Three lines (semi-ellipses) of longitude are shown in colour. The red one passes through the point on the surface directly below the Inmarsat-3F1 satellite. The green one passes through the last known position (last secondary radar contact) of flight MH370. The red one passes through the two large pieces of debris spotted several days ago by the Australian government. The three points on the Earth's surface are marked with dots in the corresponding colours. The left and right limbs of the Earth do not correspond exactly to lines of longitude. In order to approximately define the visible horizon, I have shown the western-most and eastern-most lines of longitude which are almost fully visible from the selected vantage point.

http://www.mh370.ca/View_of_Globe_final.gif

The co-ordinates of the lines of longitude and the coloured dots are as follows:
Western-most (leftmost) visible longitude = 15 deg E
Co-ordinates of Inmarsat-3F1 = 64.4804 deg E, 0.7495 deg N
Co-ordinates of last known position = 103.5786 deg E, 6.9208 deg N
Co-ordinates of debris sighting = 43.9761 deg S, 90.9603 deg E
Eastern-most (rightmost) visible longitude = 175 deg E

Note the following distances:
Radius of the Earth, to sea level = 6,371 km (kilometers)
Altitude of Inmarsat-3F1 = 35,786 km
Estimated altitude from during silent flight = 5 km

Using trigonometry, one can calculate the distance from the satellite to the airplane:
Distance from Inmarsat-3F1 to last known position = 37,455 km
Distance from Inmarsat-3F1 to debris field = 42,515 km

Now, using a value of 298,000 km/sec for the speed of light, the time taken for a radio signal to make a round-trip from the satellite to MH370 can be calculated as:
... to last known position = 0.251 seconds
... to debris sighted = 0.285 seconds
Several days ago, a spokesman for Inmarsat said that they had observed "the pings lengthening" as the flight progressed. The round-trip times I have just calculated suggest that the round-trip ping duration increased by 34 milliseconds during the silent part of the flight.

One can also calculate the average speed of flight MH370. To do this, one must know the following times:
Time at last known position = 17:21 UTC on March 8, 2014
Time of last satellite ping = 24:11 UTC, just after midnight
Subtracting the latter from the former gives the time of silent flight as 6.83 hours

The distance flown by MH370 during its silent flight can be calculated using the angle enclosed by two of the rays shown in the figure. The first is the ray from the Earth's center (the black dot) to the last known position (the green dot). The second ray extends from the Earth's center to the debris field (the red dot). The enclosed angle is 52.16 degrees. Assuming flight MH370 flew a great circle route, this enclosed angle represents 52.16 / 360 = 14.49% of a complete circle. Since the Earth's radius is 6,371 km, the Earth's circumference is 2 times pi times the radius, or 40,030 km. MH370 flew 14.49% of this circumference, or a distance of 5,800 km. It flew this distance in 6.83 hours, at an average speed of 5,800 km / 6.83 hours = 849 kilometers per hour. This can be converted into knots at a rate of 0.54 knots per km, to obtain 460 knots.

References:
a. Telecom, Media and Finance Associates, Inc. (http://www.tmfassociates.com) reports that the pings from MH370 were exchanged with the Inmarsat-3F1 satellite at 64E longitude.
b. Home - Inmarsat (http://www.inmarsat.com) states that their satellites are in geostationary orbit at an altitude of 35,786 km (22,236 miles) above sea level.
c. Online Satellite Calculations (http://www.satellite-calculations.com) states that the location of Inmarsat-3F1 at 22:51 UTC on March 22, 2014, was longitude 64.4804 deg E and latitude 0.7495 deg N. [As the tilt of the Earth changes during the seasons, geostationary satellites drift above and below the equatorial plane. Since we are quite close to the Equinox now, the satellite is quite close to the Equator. I have neglected the drift which has occurred during the last 14 days.]
d. Wikipedia (http://www.wikipedia.org) reports that the last known position of MH370, defined as its last secondary radar contact, was longitude 103 deg 34 min 43 sec E and latitude 6 deg 55 min 15 sec N at 17:21 Zulu on March 8, 2014. The same site reports that the final satellite ping was received at 00:11 Zulu on March 9, 2014.
e. A satellite photograph has been copied onto many sites. It is labeled as "Australian Government, Department of Defence, Mar 16/14" and the source of the photograph (Digital Globe) is given as well. Figures overlaid on the photograph show the debris at longitude 90 deg 57 min 37 sec E and latitude 43 deg 58 min 34 sec S.
f. Wikipedia (http://www.wikipedia.org) states that the mean radius of the Earth is 6,371 km (3,959 statute miles).
g. I have assumed that the airplane was at an altitude of 5,000 meters both at its last known position and at the start of its descent into the Australian debris field.

[InfrequentFlier511]

Bear in mind that the Ocean Shield is not an especially fast vessel (RAN lists its speed as 16 knots; as-built it was much happier at 12 knots) so the voyage from its base in Sydney to Fremantle is going to take the better part of six days. Add bunkering time in Fremantle, and another three or four days to get to the search area, and the wrong end of the 30-day pinger life of the FDR is looking unpleasantly close.

[Backoffice]

If you have a look at Xue Long's current position and using the "density" tool on the left, move the slider for all traffic to the right, you will see what appears to be where other ships have been searching.

Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions - AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:99.96091/centery:-38.67876/zoom:8/oldmmsi:412863000/olddate:lastknown)

[Control Eng]

I worked on ATC software development in the infancy of ADS-B, I haven't been involved for sometime but -

LFRT posted the raw ADS-B data recorded by FR24 and others.

Following is all the ADS-B data i could gather from 1642 to 1721 UTC :
255 cue points with time, altitude and speed data (and discontinued lat/long, climb rate and squawk data).
.
.
.
SOURCES/METHOD USED :

- "FR24 Gr" = FlightRadar24 graph (MH370 - Malaysia Airlines - Flight history - Flightradar24). The raw figures (time, alt & speed) for the 185 cue points of the FR24 graph are included in the page's source code, all i had to do was grab them and translate them in the right units.
- "FR24 Pn" = FlightRadar24 "pinned" page (same url). The data you get each time you press the FWD button. Adds location and heading to some of the 185 "FR24 Gr" points.
- "GE" = Google Earth. For the first "FR24 Pn" points (just after takeoff, in the 327° straight line), i got the lat and long data from Google Earth. Presumably it can be done with every other "FR24 Pn" cue point, that's why i marked their missing lat/long data with a "*"
- "FR24 Pb" = FlightRadar24 "playback" page (Flightradar24.com - Live flight tracker!). Oddly enough, the points are not the same as in the "pinned" page. And these ones also include the climb rate, the squawk and the data feeder (registered ADS-B receiver which the data came from)
- "FA" = FlightAware data (Registre de suivi des vols ? MAS370 ? 08-03-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware). No squawk data on this one, and some minor discrepancies when compared to FR24 heading and velocity data.
- "PF" = PlaneFinder. 3 additional cue points, still better than nothing.

Once all this data collected, i ordered them by growing altitude until FL350, and adjusted the remaining cue points, based on their timestamp (feel free to interpolate the points where seconds are replaced by XX).

T[UTC];LAT[°];LONG[°];HDG[°];ALT[ft];SPD[kts];RoC[ft/mn];Squawk;ADS-B feeder;Data Source
.
.
.
17:20:22;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:33;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:49;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:XX;6,9300;103,5900;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:21:XX;6,9700;103,6300;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb



I am assuming that the raw data presented reflects directly what was received by the ADS-b ground station.

It is the last two transmissions that I find of interest.

ADS-b data is primarily derived from GPS, however there is a requirement that the altitude data should correspond to that displayed to the pilot, so at cruise it will be pressure altitude.

I believe that because of this requirement the altitude data is not generated in the ADS-b equipment, but provided externally via a data bus from the pressure altimeter/FMC?.

The last two ADS-b transmission do not have any altitude data (it has presumably been set to zero as there is no valid data).

All previous messages contained credible altitude data.

IMHO there is no physical control that would enable just a single field of an ADS-b message to be selectively suppressed and even if there was for what purpose?

If, as seems to be accepted, the SSR/ADS-b was disabled by someone on the flight deck, how was suppression of altitude data accomplished?

The other possibility is of course that the source of the pressure altitude (altimeter/FMC?) failed / was disabled just before the SSR/ADS-b.

So T7 pilots/MX'ers

Is there some way to suppress altitude output? and if so why would someone want to do that when he is disabling the SSR/ADS-b.

Why wouldn't the ADS-b switch to an alternate altimeter, or is a manual input required?

Are the SSR/ADS-b and pressure altimeter on the same CB?

What would be the consequences of losing all pressure altimeters?

[Titania]

Thanks to FE Hoppy, I just dug up the following references:

Volume of air entering the cabin from the cargo hold (http://books.google.es/books?id=sAgdRy6JJiYC&pg=PA41&lpg=PA41&dq=Volume+of+air+entering+the+cabin+from+the+cargo+hold&source=bl&ots=v0UzXgzp1L&sig=gt-JFiW7rkNr5IYNeeBEry_dtM4&hl=en&sa=X&ei=7WMvU6eMAcTI0QXsx4CYBA&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false)

From which I gather that there is air entering the cabin from the cargo hold, in particular CO2 (Carbon dioxide, not monoxide), from, for example, dry ice, under even normal circumstances. It remains to be calculated just how much dry ice would be needed to attain a lethal level of 3%.

The second point would be, what if it's not just a small escape of this gas, but a large one which may have been triggered by (a) a smouldering fire damaging the dry ice containers, and (b) what would be the effect of extremely cold CO2 mixing with very hot Lithium (-ion or not) fumes plus the normal air in the cargo hold. Perhaps one of the posters has chemistry knowledge and can chime in.

It would also assume that for whatever reason (maintenance or defect) the pressure of the cabin was not higher than the hold as recommended, which I understand may happen, therefore there would be upwards flow from the hold to the cabin.

If, as is posited in this reference, it is possible for CO2 to reach the cabin, what about nitrogen containers instead of dry ice?

Either of these two products (CO2 or Nitrogen) would rob oxygen from the living (whether humans or animals), at the same time as, theoretically, extinguishing any fire. Depending on the contingencies, it may be possible that fire alarms are not triggered because of this.

Boeing Smoke Detection Systems (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/2011_q2/3/)

I do not understand the consequences of the limits of detection of a fire in this article. If a fire occurred in extremely close proximity to a nitrogen container, rupturing it, and if the nitrogen extinguished the fire, would there be enough smoke particles to trigger the dectection systems, while all the nitrogen emptied itself in the hold?

That is assuming that the placement of the goods involved has been made according to regulations - which they may not have been, and assuming also that the distance between the detector and the fire is fairly close which may or not be the case.

This is also assuming that the goods involved are in the hold or baggage compartments - what if they were carried in the cabin? Well maybe not nitrogen or dry ice, too bulky, but some similar hazardous material - one never knows what a passenger has in a bag...

@Max Nightstop

This reference here: Fire Protection Systems (https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aircraft/amt_airframe_handbook/media/ama_Ch17.pdf) explicitly says that Carbon monoxide (CO) detectors do exist.

What I am learning from this reference is that pilots can control the airflows from hold to cabin.

Quote from page 17-18:

Fire detecting sensing elements are located in many high-activity areas around aircraft engines. Their location, together with their small size, increases the chance of damage to the sensing elements during maintenance.

The following reference B777 Air Systems - downloadable pdf file (http://www.smartcockpit.com/aircraft-ressources/B777-Air_Systems.html) details the air flows in a B777. I do not have the knowledge to analyse this document.

@Yawn
Thank you.

@Fred The Red

Is it safe to assume a) CO couldn't enter cabin (either from known (ie. engines) or unknown (cargo hold fire) combustion sources) and, b) if CO were present, a/c are fitted with appropriate detectors?

From the above references,

(a) no.
(b) I don't know for sure but this would need checking - perhaps cost may limit their use?

@others :)
Thank you for helping examining this theory.

[DaveReidUK]

I am assuming that the raw data presented reflects directly what was received by the ADS-b ground station.The last two ADS-b transmission do not have any altitude data (it has presumably been set to zero as there is no valid data).Your assumption isn't valid. Those are not original ADS-B transmissions, they are FlightRadar24's processed data, originating from enthusiast Mode S receivers with software that may also have done some pre-processing of the raw data as sent by the aircraft.

If you have been involved in ADS-B development, you will know that the message format quoted in your post

T[UTC];LAT[°];LONG[°];HDG[°];ALT[ft];SPD[kts];RoC[ft/mn];Squawk;ADS-B feeder;Data Sourceis never transmitted by an aircraft in that form. Positional data (ie lat/lon) and velocity (groundspeed and track) are always sent separately.

So you cannot infer from the absence of individual parameters in a FlightRadar24 pseudo-message that the aircraft was sending null values.

[porterhouse]

Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. Two plus two equals four. For you maybe but for me your theory makes little sense. There is no 2+2 = 4 here, at least we are far from any such simplicity.
You have to explain why this aircraft turned sharply South (or North) after exiting the Malacca straits. The aircraft trajectory and its zigzagging even inside the straits makes little sense when compared to possible approaches to Langkawi airport. If on the other hand you claim that the aircraft never exited Malacca straits and crashed somewhere there then you better find it... water there is very shallow, search area limited, it is also a very busy area and pieces should be floating now for everybody to see. By the way your post is exact replica of hundreds identical, not much originality.

[25F]

I found 4 or 5 incidents of pilots deliberately flying aircraft with passengers into the ground over 30 years. I haven't tried to figure out how many fatal accidents there've been amongst airlines during the same period, but I know it's way, way more that that. Pilot suicide causes a tiny proportion of what is already a tiny number.

I'll say it again.

There are very few instances of airliners being lost in the cruise with no immediately apparent cause. Of those, the instances of suspected deliberate pilot action form a significant fraction.

There is no statistical argument against it being a possible cause in this case.

[OPENDOOR]

@Control Eng

Is there some way to suppress altitude output? and if so why would someone want to do that when he is disabling the SSR/ADS-b.

Turn off mode c, physically break the connection to, or destroy, the altitude encoder unit.

[LASJayhawk]

No separate encoder, the altitude info comes from the ADIRU. Going to mode A (code) only sending no C or S data will give you a flag (invalid altitude) not 0'

On changing codes...On the digital controllers with rotary knobs, they continue to squawk the old code until several seconds have passed without a change then switch to the new code. IE is you are squawking 4444 and change the first digit to 6, the transponder squawks 4444 til a few seconds have passed, then squawks 6444, no standby in between.

I never tried to enter 3 digits on a push button one, so I can't say what it would do if you only entered 3 digits, but best guess would be it would disregard the change and continue to squawk the old code.

[olasek]

This would probably indicate decompression or fire.It could indicate many different things.

[truckflyer]

Yankee Whisky

If you read some of the posts of experienced guys on type or similar types, you will see that this explanation does not make sense. Read post from "Albert Driver" Post 7598, where he makes some excellent points.

Also the Zig zag flight, does not make sense with what has happen. Finally if this was true, why did they not attempt the approach?
Because somebody must have been awake to set them on south course after passing airport.

[selfin]

Assume HDG Mode on 180 until fuel exhaustion.

A 180M track ends up too far east of the present search area. The same case results from a 180M heading (link (http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/contrail.shtml) to winds from Vasquez).

Assuming IGREX as a starting point then the following graphic shows constant magnetic tracks for 180, 190, 200 and 210 degrees.
Disregard the lengths.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/320x240q90/541/k5uu.jpg (https://imageshack.com/i/f1k5uuj)

180M TRK (text (http://pastebin.com/BDMGxcmd) | kmz (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/58528689/MH370_pub/IGREX180M1000m.kmz)), 190M TRK (text (http://pastebin.com/kzzmsEAh) | kmz (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/58528689/MH370_pub/IGREX190M1000m.kmz)), 200M TRK (text (http://pastebin.com/SdgPKEYe) | kmz (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/58528689/MH370_pub/IGREX200M1000m.kmz)), 210M TRK (text (http://pastebin.com/jj9UM8F6) | kmz (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/58528689/MH370_pub/IGREX210M1000m.kmz)).
Map here (http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/display/20140323170627-09154-map.html) (expires 20140327 at 0000Z).

[SeenItAll]

A 180M track ends up too far east of the present search area.

The present search area is not the area where the authorities think the plane went down. It is the area to where the authorities think the wreckage will have drifted over the past two weeks. Given that the general direction of drift is eastward, don't discount the 180 track yet.

[Hogger60]

Yankee Whiskey, I guess being quoted by numerous media outlets for getting this post up on Wired.com wasn't enough, so now you have to spout you nonsense in full on PPrune too.

My second favorite part of your theory (my first is that the raging electrical fire that killed everyone onboard mysteriously went out, letting the autopilot stay engaged even with no electrical power) is that the PF was headed to Langkawi, even though it was closed, a very dark place to land even when the lights are on, and a one direction runway for approaches (the opposite direction he was heading), Penang was closer (and open 24/7) with approaches on both runways, and full firefighting support. Both pilots had flown into and out of both of these airfields many times, and both knew one was closed one was open. Push the ALT button in the FMC and head direct to PEN.

I am sure you like the "simple" theory since it appears you did minimal research (if any) on B777-200ER's, Malaysian Airlines, or the area in which contact was lost with MH370, because you would have had a much more informed and valid argument if you had.

[onetrack]

To those obsessive adherents to the "aircraft fire" scenario that disabled the crew but left the aircraft flying for many hours afterwards - I have just one question.

Skywriting aircraft produce copious amounts of highly visible smoke from the injection of a relatively small amount of low-viscosity oil into the hot exhaust manifold.
Tyre fires on the ground produce enough black high-density smoke to blanket large areas of cities.

A large aircraft flying at high altitude with a substantial fire on board would produce a smoke-containing contrail so highly visible, it could be seen with a naked eye from the ground - even in early dawn light.
This contrail would surely be highly visible on weather satellite pics, would it not? The projected flight path is over a number of high-traffic shipping lanes. And yet no-one on a ship has reported seeing an extensive smoke contrail?
I look at Tim Vasquez's excellent contrail examination site, and there is only one vague contrail picked up in the Southern latitudes - and this contrail is regarded and examined as a regular contrail - not a smoke-filled one.

I consider that a total lack of any space images showing any contrails from serious amounts of smoke from a major, aircraft-disabling fire, and a total lack of eyewitness reports of smoke contrails, to be a total lack of evidence supporting a fire theory.

[SpannerTwister]

I'll leave it to you pilot types to cover the "Pilot Stuff" while I'm turning the spanners !

However, from the PDF someone posted a page or two ago regarding aircraft fire systems,

Page 17-2

Class D—fires involving combustible metals, such as magnesium, titanium, zirconium, sodium, lithium, and potassium.


And from Page 17-10

However, do not use Halons on a class D fire. Halon agents may react vigorously with the burning metal.

Anyone got a chemist friend who could comment on what "vigorously" might mean in this event?

What would happen if a small or otherwise controllable lithium-battery fire occurred and the pilot discharged the Halon extinguishing system on it?

[cribbagepeg]

Halon at very high temperatures - um, phosgene, no? Just a little bit poisonous. Halon works well on flames as it is inert and heavier than air. In the case of incendiary Magnesium, Titanium e.g., a bucket of sand is a better way to go. Early Teflon (tm) research by duPont killed at least one scientist when the fry pan under test got a bit too hot. According to the legend.

[Capt Kremin]

Some refining here...

http://i1275.photobucket.com/albums/y451/captainkremin/Googleearth3_zpsa43d63f2.jpg

I refined the initial no wind 197 degree green line track to 200deg M/515 knots GS from the initial point and am pleased to see it closely resembles Selfins much more professional effort which incorporates the winds.

The pink direct track now has hourly markers at 485 GS. From there I extrapolated psuedo-satellite arcs based on the distances from IOR of these hourly markers; the thinking being here that if they were roughly equidistant from each other then there is a good chance that would indicate that the aircraft took a direct track to the search area, taking into account GS changes due to wind changes.

They appear to do that.

Extending the arcs through the initial 188 deg M track and the 200 deg M track reveal large discrepancies at different parts of those tracks, indicating that the aircraft did not take those tracks.

I stress: A lot of this is supposition but it appears to support the case I made earlier that:

The attitude of the Malaysian government that the aircraft was deliberately taken to this area stems from the fact that the evidence supports a direct track taken to reach the initial search area.

A direct track can over that distance can only be practically achieved by a FMC entry due to the massive changes in magnetic variation. That in turn implies technical knowledge and intent.

There is also no reason for a southerly heading to be in the HDG box to send the aircraft south after reaching a route discontinuity, particularly as this would have have to be been turned that way over an hour after contact was lost.

I acknowledge the suppositions. There are many technically/mathematically inclined people reading this who can possibly comprehensively disprove those assumptions if they are flawed. Please feel free to do so if you are able.

[bcpr]

Lithium battery-Halon fire tests-PowerPoint file from FAA:

www.fire.tc.faa.gov/ppt/systems/lithium%20bat%20060602.ppt

[Chris2303]

Pardon my ignorance but if there was something at the bottom of the ocean surely the MAD in the Orions would find it?

[Control Eng]

Can you please check were I stated that I
have been involved in ADS-B development
or that these were
original ADS-B transmissions
or that I inferred that the messages were
transmitted by an aircraft in that form
as you yourself quoted, I said
I am assuming that the raw data presented reflects directly what was received by the ADS-b ground station

ATC systems receive ADS-b data from ground stations over data links. The links transfer data packages that contain combined squitters of ADS-b transmissions.

The data package formats were ADS-b receiver manufacturer specific but content wise were remarkably similar to those displayed, however they did have validity flags.

I am fully aware that FR24 relies on enthusiast Mode S receivers but am amazed that you seem to consider that this particular programmer was astute enough to be able to write a program that selected just these two particular messages to drop the altitude (while keeping the lat/long from the same squitter) when all his other messages were presented in totality.

[bratschewurst]

"I found 4 or 5 incidents of pilots deliberately flying aircraft with passengers into the ground over 30 years. I haven't tried to figure out how many fatal accidents there've been amongst airlines during the same period, but I know it's way, way more that that. Pilot suicide causes a tiny proportion of what is already a tiny number. "

I'll say it again.

There are very few instances of airliners being lost in the cruise with no immediately apparent cause. Of those, the instances of suspected deliberate pilot action form a significant fraction.

There is no statistical argument against it being a possible cause in this case. No. It is of course a "possible cause." But there is an argument against it considered being more likely than other highly improbable causes. The difference between 1 occurrence in 1 million of explanation A and no occurrences of Explanation B in the same one million is not significant enough to make predictions about whether A or B is more likely to have actually happened in a given case.

[Mahatma Kote]

@titania

To give an idea of just how nitrogen can be toxic

80% of the air we breathe is Nitrogen. It's only poisonous at great pressure such as deep-sea diving.

At sea-level pressure or lower it can only harm by displacing normal air completely and so eliminating the oxygen.

Gases that can kill or render unconscious are rare in aircraft. As you point out CO - Carbon Monoxide is one.

Another one very relevant to aircraft is HCN gas - Hydrogen Cyanide. It's a by-product of heating certain types of plastics and was the primary cause of death in at least one otherwise survivable accident - where a plane crashed and a small fire started that generated smoke and HCN from seat cushions that killed most passengers before they could exit.

However HCN would be very unlikely to be generated without large amounts of smoke.

[auraflyer]

Anyone got a chemist friend who could comment on what "vigorously" might mean in this event?

Halons are haloalkanes -- carbon skeletons with fluorine, chlorine or bromine instead of hydrogen atoms.

The most common ones used as suppressants are called Halon 1211 and Halon 1301 (respectively, CF2ClBr and CF3Br).

The FAA did some tests on Halon 1301 and Li-Ion batteries a decade ago: http://www.fire.tc.faa.gov/pdf/04-26.pdf

From the executive summary:

"Halon 1301, the fire suppression agent installed in transport category aircraft, is ineffective in suppressing or extinguishing a primary lithium battery fire. Halon 1301 appears to chemically interact with the burning lithium and electrolyte, causing a color change in the molten lithium sparks, turning them a deep red instead of the normal white. This chemical interaction has no effect on battery fire duration or intensity.

The air temperature in a cargo compartment that has had a fire suppressed by Halon 1301 can still be above the autoignition temperature of lithium. Because of this, batteries that were not involved in the initial fire can still ignite and propagate.

The ignition of a primary lithium battery releases burning electrolyte and a molten lithium spray. The cargo liner material may be vulnerable to perforation by molten lithium, depending on its thickness. This can allow the Halon 1301 fire suppressant agent to leak out of the compartment, reducing the concentration within the cargo compartment and the effectiveness of the agent. Holes in the cargo liner may also allow flames to spread outside the compartment."

To answer the question, it does not appear that the vigorousness of the reaction with the halon is the main thing; rather, it is the participation of the intended suppressant in the fire and its consequent failure to extinguish it. The report suggests that the halon did not make the fire worse (which you would expect if the reaction added anything to the combustion process).

From p 9-10 you can see that the Li reaction is indifferent to the presence of the halon, but other reactions are affected:

"The color change of the lithium sparks indicated that a reaction was occurring between the lithium and the Halon 1301. This reaction had no effect on the fire progression, neither hindering nor promoting the spread of the battery fire. The vented electrolyte fires, normally pale red in color, turned bright red when exposed to Halon 1301.

The battery fire continued to propagate until all batteries were consumed, continuing long after the 1-propanol fire was extinguished. The halon also had no effect on the peak temperatures in the test chamber, peaking at about 1400°F. This is similar to the peak temperatures exhibited in previous unsuppressed fires. However, the overall temperature profiles were lower, due to the extinguishment of the 1-propanol and battery plastic coating fires."

The FAA also tested Halon 1211, which is also ineffective: http://www.fire.tc.faa.gov/pdf/09-55.pdf

I suspect this is likely because lithium is very reactive and, compared to fluorine and chlorine, bromine is the most reactive when attached to a carbon atom (the basis for, e.g., Grignard reagents). The two together are thus able to undergo reaction, especially given the temperatures produced by the primary failure. The whole thing is worth reading in its (scary) entirety.

All in all, a Bad Thing.

[oldoberon]

Chris2303

Most of airframe etc non magnetic and very deep water. Suggest MAD for merchant ship detection (after sinking)

[Control Eng]

But the mode S (ADS-b) lat/long data is present, just the altitude is missing (0?). How do you select which ADIRU is used by the SSR/ADS-b?

[Airbubba]

Pardon my ignorance but if there was something at the bottom of the ocean surely the MAD in the Orions would find it?

Nope:

To reduce interference from electrical equipment or metal in the fuselage of the aircraft, the MAD sensor is placed at the end of a boom or a towed aerodynamic device. Even so, the submarine must be very near the aircraft's position and close to the sea surface for detection of the change or anomaly. The size of the submarine and its hull composition determine the detection range.

From: Magnetic anomaly detector - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_anomaly_detector)

[Sheep Guts]

SpannerTwister,

What would happen if a small or otherwise controllable lithium-battery fire occurred and the pilot discharged the Halon extinguishing system on it?

This is transcribed from the Emergency Response Guidance for Aircraft Incidents Involving Dangerous Goods manual Red Book.

Lithium Ion Batteries UN3480 have an ICAO Dangeroous Goods Emergency Response Drill code(issue 2013/2014) of 9 F Z

Meaning the following from the Table 4-1. Aircraft Emergency Response Drills


Drill No. 9

Inherent Risk-------- -------No general Inherent Risk

Risk to Aircraft- -------------As Indicated by drill code

Risk to Occupants- ----------As indicated by drill letter

Spill or leak procedure------ Use 100% oxygen; establish and maintain maximum ventilation if " A " drill letter

Fire Fighting Procedure------All agents according to availability- use water if available on " Z " drill letter; no water on "W" drill letter

Additional considerations----If " Z " drill letter consider landing immediately otherwise, none

ADDITIONAL RISKS:


DRILL LETTER : " F "--FLAMMABLE


DRILL LETTER: " Z "--- AIRCRAFT CARGO FIRE SUPPRESSION SYSTEM MAY NOT EXTINGUISH OR CONTAIN THE FIRE; CONSIDER LANDING IMMEDIATLEY


So basically use everything you have on lithium ion batteries but containment is not guaranteed. Seems insane to put Lithium Ion batteries on any pax /cargo aircraft in any quantity really.

[Titania]

@Mahatma Kote

At sea-level pressure or lower it can only harm by displacing normal air completely and so eliminating the oxygen.

Precisely.

I am not talking of a plane that has depressurized, I am talking about a plane with normal pressurization, somewhat a little higher than sea-level.

If such quantities as shown in the Mexican pool example were liberated, then this nitrogen would rarefy oxygen. It could be another oxygen-scavenging gas than nitrogen (but we'd need a chemist to tell us which).

If the liberation of the gas was slow and not due to explosion, but due to damage to containers, and if the placement of the nitrogen allowed it to seep to cabin and cockpit through defective venting systems (air conditioning, pressure differentials between different parts of the aircraft), then one could posit that there would be a slow hypoxia onset for all living things in the plane.

That theory of slow-setting hypoxia, where I put forward that such damage to nitrogen (or other similar gas) cylinders may have been caused by a lithium battery fire (although it could be something else I suppose), is the simplest that takes care of all aspects of the flight, the behavior of the pilots and the end result.

Ohoh, I've been mod-ded too!!! Better quickly save the interesting posts before they disappear...

[jugofpropwash]

I wondered why it took so long for this CNN story to show up on this forum. What happened to the 45,000 feet deal??? This is just another example of most of the "facts" all these gullible "experts" are going by, are ones they get via the Malaysian government and are subject to change at any time. I don't want to hear any more of this "We all know..." stuff, when NO, we don't "all know..."!

Keep in mind that CNN's 12000ft story came from "sources" too - so whether it's any more or less accurate than anything else we've heard is debatable.

The story has changed so much and so many times that I'm not even totally sure there ever was an airplane.

[Coagie]

Quote:
"Halon 1301, the fire suppression agent installed in transport category aircraft, is ineffective in suppressing or extinguishing a primary lithium battery fire. Halon 1301 appears to chemically interact with the burning lithium and electrolyte, causing a color change in the molten lithium sparks, turning them a deep red instead of the normal white. This chemical interaction has no effect on battery fire duration or intensity.

The air temperature in a cargo compartment that has had a fire suppressed by Halon 1301 can still be above the autoignition temperature of lithium. Because of this, batteries that were not involved in the initial fire can still ignite and propagate.

The ignition of a primary lithium battery releases burning electrolyte and a molten lithium spray. The cargo liner material may be vulnerable to perforation by molten lithium, depending on its thickness. This can allow the Halon 1301 fire suppressant agent to leak out of the compartment, reducing the concentration within the cargo compartment and the effectiveness of the agent. Holes in the cargo liner may also allow flames to spread outside the compartment." Is it possible if an aircraft still used a Halon fire suppression system, that, in the course of fighting a Lithium-Ion battery fire, that all the Halon might be emptied from the tanks and extinguishers in a futile attempt to extinguish the fire, and all the Halon expelled displaced enough oxygen aboard the aircraft, to make everyone pass out? I know in places I've worked that employed Halon fire suppression, there was an audible alarm along with a strobe light that warned that the Halon system was about to go off, and you had a certain number of seconds to either get out or disable a false alarm, because you couldn't breathe, once the Halon came out.

[Coagie]

Keep in mind that CNN's 12000ft story came from "sources" too - so whether it's any more or less accurate than anything else we've heard is debatable.
I kept it in mind. We all should.
The story has changed so much and so many times that I'm not even totally sure there ever was an airplane. Jugopropwash, I'm with you there!

[Tfor2]

Cockpit Voice Recorders: The output from vastly updated technology is now available and ready to record hours of audio and video activity on the flight deck. However, it appears that concerns of pilot privacy still forbid their full use. 30 minutes max and no video. Is there a conflict here?

We bereft pax are left to wonder what the point is of spending millions to retrieve this piece of evidence from the bottom of the ocean, only to find there's nothing on it.

Let's hear from some of you pros out there.

[threemiles]

But the mode S (ADS-b) lat/long data is present, just the altitude is missing (0?). How do you select which ADIRU is used by the SSR/ADS-b?

you don't
i agree, i was irritated by these transmissions, too
but the answer is likely the behaviour of the transponder when it is switched to off or stby or the cb is pulled

[Plumb Bob]

Mere SLF here - albeit 40-year, 2-million-plus-mile SLF - but I don't recall seeing a lot of wooden pallets being loaded on aircraft.Much air cargo gets loaded on “unit load devices”, e.g. (metallic) aircraft pallets and also in cargo containers like lower deck containers and igloos. However, a lot of said cargo is trucked into the airport on smaller wooden pallets, and that cargo is often forklifted (together with the underlying pallets) directly onto 125 x 96 inches aircraft pallets and the like. So a lot of wooden truck-type pallets fly without this being noticeable to even attentive passengers, I think. The wooden pallets serve to keep the load forkliftable, not only for assembling the aircraft pallet load, but also for subsequent surface transport.

[Wannabe Flyer]

As per the confirmed report the flight took on board 53 tons of fuel at KUL.

Query: would this include the reserve fuel from prior sector of aircraft on board or the fresh uptake only?

If it is the fresh uptake only would that not add about 800 km or another hour to the flight being calculated?

Assuming another 800 km range and the aircraft continued to fly south from where the last ping to IMERSAT, is there sattelite coverage in that area to pick up subsequent pings 30 minutes later or this really the black hole as being described.

Thank you

[Methersgate]

I am only a simple seaman but I know two things that are relevant here:

1. As I said in 7608, Halon does not suppress a lithium ion battery runaway.

2. The biggest cause of loss of life amongst merchant seamen is entry into enclosed spaces with unsafe atmospheres: we are taught that if the atmosphere in the space, always tested before entry, is anything other than 20.9% O2 we do not enter the space, because if the O2 content is below normal, it has been replaced with something else.

[selfin]

Capt Kremin (#7676 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-384.html#post8397161), 24th 0211Z), the posted (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-384.html#post8397113) tracks do not take account of wind. For the 197M constant magnetic track coordinates: text (http://pastebin.com/w6g4RP0q), kmz (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/58528689/MH370_pub/IGREX197M1000m.kmz).

[averow]

You do realize that Li Ion batteries are the MAIN backup batteries on the Boeing 787 ?

[Coagie]

Much air cargo gets loaded on “unit load devices”, e.g. (metallic) aircraft pallets and also in cargo containers like lower deck containers and igloos. However, a lot of said cargo is trucked into the airport on smaller wooden pallets, and that cargo is often forklifted (together with the underlying pallets) directly onto 125 x 96 inches aircraft pallets and the like. So a lot of wooden truck-type pallets fly without this being noticeable to even attentive passengers, I think. The wooden pallets serve to keep the load forkliftable, not only for assembling the aircraft pallet load, but also for subsequent surface transport. Even though a wooden pallet could be on an aircraft, it doesn't mean anything, because wooden pallets are all over the place, all over the world. I'd be surprised if they didn't find one!

[DCrefugee]

Its possible he turned back with out telling anyone

Not really...

They would have mashed the mic button and told ATC they were returning, if for no other reason than to request the equipment. And there are plenty of other reasons to tell ATC, including basic professionalism.

[auraflyer]

You guys are serious right?? A fire developed, the crew failed to declare an emergency, switched off the ATC and ACARS, then the plane flew for 7 hours down the Indian Ocean??

No.

I do know what occurs when halons are used on a Li ion fire. That is fact and I recounted it, with FAA citations. I also gave my thoughts (based on my own first hand experience) as to why it might be that halons are ineffective in that kind of case (as a matter of fairly simple chemistry).

That is ENTIRELY separate from suggesting that something along those lines did or might have occurred here. I have not done so (read my post carefully); indeed, my own (irrelevant) opinion is that the deliberate course changes indicate it didn't happen.

[hamster3null]

Is it possible if an aircraft still used a Halon fire suppression system, that, in the course of fighting a Lithium-Ion battery fire, that all the Halon might be emptied from the tanks and extinguishers in a futile attempt to extinguish the fire, and all the Halon expelled displaced enough oxygen aboard the aircraft, to make everyone pass out? I know in places I've worked, that employed Halon fire suppression, there was an audible alarm along with a strobe light that warned that the Halon system was about to go off, and you had a certain number of seconds to either get out or disable a false alarm, because you couldn't breathe, once the Halon came out.

It's not possible.

Halon is used for fire suppression in enclosed spaces. One of the nice features of Halon is that it is not particularly toxic (despite the alarms) and it efficiently suppresses most fires at concentrations of only ~5%. It would not be able to prevent all lithium batteries from burning, but it would prevent the fire from spreading to other materials, as long as the cargo hold remains in one piece and reasonably airtight.

In the event that the fire is so inconveniently located that it burns through the bulkheads separating the cargo hold from the passenger cabin, halon would leak through the holes and would fail as a fire suppressant, but it would not by itself kill anyone or displace oxygen anywhere.

[Toruk Macto]

Telling the world your problems comes naturally to some cultures , to others its not such a natural reaction . He would feel very comfortable flying in this airspace , at this time of night he may have even felt he owned it to a certain extent . Maybe he thought turn it around and get it on the ground ASAP and talk later but time run out .

[Coagie]

Ngineer:You guys are serious right?? A fire developed, the crew failed to declare an emergency, switched off the ATC and ACARS, then the plane flew for 7 hours down the Indian Ocean??

Yeah mods, keep that one going. Hey, chill out! What's the matter? Afraid someone will make you think? Maybe change your paradigm? Does it hurt your feelings? The worst that can happen is you might learn something about Lithium-Ion battery fire suppression. If you have to think a little more to try to make it fit into what you believe, it couldn't hurt anything, could it? At least it's not a time portal or alien abduction theory. With Lithium-Ion battery problems in the news all the time, it isn't outlandish, especially in light of how few real facts we do have to think a fire or fumes could have been involved. You don't find what's over the hill by staying at the bottom of it.

[Sheep Guts]

Selfin,
Capt Kremin (#7676, 24th 0211Z), the posted tracks do not take account of wind. For the 197M constant magnetic track coordinates: text, kmz.

These tracks whether they are magnetic or true. May all be inconsequential if the new Altitudes found to be 12000' or less. The B777 fuel burn and TAS would be totally different making the current search area too far away now.

[Propduffer]

It appears to me that the Lithium-Ion battery discussion is unrelated to the disappearance of MH370. The battery issue should be discussed in the tech forum, not here. A fire scenario has been eliminated as a possibility in this forum unless I've missed something.

The battery discussion obfuscates the discussion of the potential scenarios, it is a red herring.

[hamster3null]

As per the confirmed report the flight took on board 53 tons of fuel at KUL.

Query: would this include the reserve fuel from prior sector of aircraft on board or the fresh uptake only?

If it is the fresh uptake only would that not add about 800 km or another hour to the flight being calculated?

Assuming another 800 km range and the aircraft continued to fly south from where the last ping to IMERSAT, is there sattelite coverage in that area to pick up subsequent pings 30 minutes later or this really the black hole as being described.

Thank you

There is a Bloomberg report saying that "The Boeing 777 was carrying 49.1 metric tons (54.1 tons) of fuel when it departed Kuala Lumpur". (In case you didn't know or you forgot that a ton is not always a ton - now you know.)

At 14000..14500 lbs/hr, not only is that not enough fuel for 800 km beyond the last ping, but seems barely enough just to get _to_ the last ping.

Even if extra fuel were available, extra 800 km would not suffice to fly out of range of the satellite. It is supposed to provide coverage all the way to the Antarctic, several hours further away.

[onetrack]

Does anyone else get the distinct impression, that after several days of the most intensive air and sea search effort since AF447, in which virtually nothing of real interest has been found - apart from pallets that could have come from anywhere, plus a few indistinct satellite pics that have failed to produce anything of value - that they're most definitely looking in the wrong area? :(

It's starting to appear obvious that the aircraft either went quite a bit further than estimated (lower fuel burn due to reduced power settings? - plus quite a few miles of glide after flameout?) - or it dropped into the ocean quite a bit earlier than the current search zone, and the current search zone needs to be re-assessed?

I'm also questioning, whether any large aircraft ever ditched without breaking up, and releasing at least some seating, luggage, freight items, composite structure materials that float, and give away the disaster zone?
Is the 777 that robust, that its tank-like build saw it penetrate the water at a little over stall speed, and at a low angle, that it just ploughed under, in virtually one piece?

I understand the engines would have sheared from their pylons on impact, but we have no previous ditching event specifically involving a 777 that we can refer to, to get any idea of what would happen, because there's never been a 777 lost in this way before.

[500N]

Just up in the Aus Media (newspapers)

Beijing: Chinese aircrew have spotted "suspicious objects" in the southern Indian Ocean in the search for vanished Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, the official Xinhua news agency says.

It gave no immediate further details, but an earlier Xinhua report said a Chinese military plane set off early on Monday from Perth to seek "suspicious debris" floating in the remote waters captured by satellite imagery.

More to come.

Read more: Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Chinese find debris (http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-chinese-find-debris-20140324-hvm9a.html#ixzz2wqoeq53m)

[500N]

From another source with co ordinates

The “white and square” objects were spotted by searchers aboard a Chinese Ilyushin-76 plane, it said.


“The crew has reported the coordinates - 95.1113 degrees east and 42.5453 south - to the Australian command centre as well as Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, which is en route to the sea area,” Xinhua said.

[MATELO]

So. After days and days of searching, the chinese pitch up and within minutes find something "suspicious"


Very convenient.

[500N]

An Aussie (RAAF) pilot is on board the Chinese aircraft as well so I doubt they would be BS'ing !

[hamster3null]

Does anyone else get the distinct impression, that after several days of the most intensive air and sea search effort since AF447, in which virtually nothing of real interest has been found - apart from pallets that could have come from anywhere, plus a few indistinct satellite pics that have failed to produce anything of value - that they're most definitely looking in the wrong area? :(

It's starting to appear obvious that the aircraft either went quite a bit further than estimated (lower fuel burn due to reduced power settings? - plus quite a few miles of glide after flameout?) - or it dropped into the ocean quite a bit earlier than the current search zone, and the current search zone needs to be re-assessed?

I've been getting this same impression for a couple of days. Yes, I think they are looking in the wrong area. However, it is far from obvious where the "right" area could be.

The area they are looking in is pretty strongly restricted by two "statements". Statement 1: according to Inmarsat, the aircraft was still in the air at the 40 degree arc 7.5 hours into the flight. Statement 2: Australians have a powerful over-the-horizon radar system that can track aircraft as far as 1000 NM west of its west coast, and may or may not reach much further.
Unfortunately, Australians are refusing to say whether they saw MH370 on their radars. Logic would dictate that either (a) they did not and they are looking for it in the area beyond the range of their radars, or (b) they did and it went down roughly in the area where they are looking. If it's (b), then we're wrong and they are right and sooner or later they'll find it there. If it's (a), things are more interesting.

Your proposed options don't really work. It could not go much further or drop much sooner along the same heading, if both statements above are true.

Furthermore, "Statement 1" is the only reason anyone is even looking in the south Indian Ocean. If we reject it in whole or in parts, MH370 can be anywhere - it could be on an abandoned landing strip in Somalia, it could be on the bottom of the Bay of Bengal, etc. etc., but south Indian Ocean would be very far down anyone's list of places to look for it.

If we accept "Statement 1" but also assume that MH370 is NOT in south Indian Ocean (due to the spectacular failure to find any trace of it there), it has to be along the northern arc. (And, since much of the northern arc is in mainland China and you'd expect the Chinese, of all people, to be 110% sure that it never got into their country, that limits options to Central Asia and Burma.)

[Sheep Guts]

hamster3null,


At 14000..14500 lbs/hr, not only is that not enough fuel for 800 km beyond the last ping, but seems barely enough just to get _to_ the last ping.

What Flight level is your fuel burn based on. Reports are coming out now that the aircraft dropped to 12000' or lower after its turn back. Surely this would reduce the distance covered and make this current search area way too far away now. Also making the 40 degree SAT IOR range ring handshakes much closer to the equator than previously thought.

[compressor stall]

Hang on, was that the Snow Dragon? Any idea where it was before Perth?

Antarctica. Almost due south of the search area.

[Coagie]

propduffer: It appears to me that the Lithium-Ion battery discussion is unrelated to the disappearance of MH370. The battery issue should be discussed in the tech forum, not here. A fire scenario has been eliminated as a possibility in this forum unless I've missed something.
Check out info outside of this forum for a change. Doesn't say a lot, if you get all your info and way of thinking from inside of this forum. You've missed a lot. Maybe this is the wrong place for you if you can't keep up with mild technical discussion. People aren't breaking out their slide rules here!

I think they have the right search area due to the Inmarsat info and Captain Kremlin's work overlaid by the contrails from the weather satellite picture, but just because it isn't evident, that a fire, fumes, or decompression has anything to do with the disappearance now, doesn't mean it won't become clear how or if it does later. It's bad problem solving practice to rule out everything else, without accurate facts, just because you're anal retentive.

[Kooljack]

If that wooden pallet had managed to float out of the sunken hull of MH370, wouldn't the satellites, Orions, Poseidons and ships observers be seeing some fields of little black rounded objects bobbing up and down on the ocean surface as well.....they are called mangosteens! ;)
.....suspicious objects????

[Coagie]

I'm also questioning, whether any large aircraft ever ditched without breaking up, and releasing at least some seating, luggage, freight items, composite structure materials that float, and give away the disaster zone?
Is the 777 that robust, that its tank-like build saw it penetrate the water at a little over stall speed, and at a low angle, that it just ploughed under, in virtually one piece?

I understand the engines would have sheared from their pylons on impact, but we have no previous ditching event specifically involving a 777 that we can refer to, to get any idea of what would happen, because there's never been a 777 lost in this way before. Well, it did hold together pretty well in that San Francisco crash and is "Made in America, by Americans", but, if it were as robust as all that, I'm afraid it'd be too heavy to get off the ground. Hope I'm proven wrong!

[CowgirlInAlaska]

Random Frustrated Thought: It seems like finding this plane is like looking for a needle in a hay stack, only the SAR Teams don't even know which hay stack to look in! :ugh:

I've seen more "credible" floating objects in the South China Sea on Tomnod than they've released to the media, including what appeared to be letters on something floating with an oil slick nearby. Media: *crickets* All eyes are on the South Indian Ocean :rolleyes:

[Coagie]

Hamster3null: In the event that the fire is so inconveniently located that it burns through the bulkheads separating the cargo hold from the passenger cabin, halon would leak through the holes and would fail as a fire suppressant, but it would not by itself kill anyone or displace oxygen anywhere. Thanks. I do remember the primary reason we used it was because water from sprinklers would ruin millions of dollars of equipment, and Halon wouldn't.

[rampstriker]

Well, it did hold together pretty well in that San Francisco crash and is "Made in America, by Americans"...


The 777 fuselage is made in Italy; the landing gear comes from France; the cargo doors are manufactured in Sweden, and the wings are from South Korea. Final assembly is done in the United States. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101211170)

[Hempy]

Random Frustrated Thought: It seems like finding this plane is like looking for a needle in a hay stack, only the SAR Teams don't even know which hay stack to look in! :ugh:

I've seen more "credible" floating objects in the South China Sea on Tomnod than they've released to the media, including what appeared to be letters on something floating with an oil slick nearby. Media: *crickets* All eyes are on the South Indian Ocean :rolleyes:

Nothing personal, but just because information isn't available in the public domain doesn't mean it isn't available. I guarantee that millions of dollars are NOT being wasted on a search in the Southern Ocean....

[jugofpropwash]

It appears to me that the Lithium-Ion battery discussion is unrelated to the disappearance of MH370. The battery issue should be discussed in the tech forum, not here. A fire scenario has been eliminated as a possibility in this forum unless I've missed something.

The battery discussion obfuscates the discussion of the potential scenarios, it is a red herring.

I agree that the batteries are a red herring - however, they do raise the question of what else was in the cargo that hasn't been disclosed.

[500N]

One of the media papers has drawn a map of where the new debris has been sighted.

http://i60.tinypic.com/2aadjee.jpg

[rh200]

What would be good is map of not only the various sitings, but the actual date of the sattelite images as well as the search dates.

[500N]

That info might be on the collated maps that show everything on the AMSA web site. (amsa.gov.au).

They have good maps and updates on a daily basis.

[hamster3null]

What Flight level is you fuel burn based on. Reports are coming out now that the aircraft dropped to 12000' or lower after its turn back. Surely this would reduce the distance covered and make this current search area way too far away now. Also making the 40 degree SAT IOR range ring handshakes much closer to the equator than previously thought.

At normal cruise altitude and accounting for takeoff, though without correction for below-average # of pax.

Sure, dropping to 12000' would lower the range, but we don't know the exact descent profile and we don't know how long it stayed there. It would certainly not last full 7.5 fours at 12000' all the way through. (I can't find data on fuel burn at 12000' for any large aircraft, but even going down to 25000' would cut maximum range by ~10%)

[nitpicker330]

It's easy to create a new waypoint for any place on Earth or simply just type in the Lat and Lon on the scratch pad and insert it into the Legs and away you go.

S90E180

LSK 1L

Execute.

[Sheep Guts]

Sorry to wake you up Soundasleep,

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (CNN) -- As a growing number of airplanes scoured the southern Indian Ocean in the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, authorities released new details that paint a different picture of what may have happened in the plane's cockpit.

Military radar tracking shows that the aircraft changed altitude after making a sharp turn over the South China Sea as it headed toward the Strait of Malacca, a source close to the investigation into the missing flight told CNN. The plane flew as low as 12,000 feet at some point before it disappeared from radar, according to the source.

The sharp turn seemed to be intentional, the source said, because executing it would have taken the Boeing 777 two minutes -- a time period during which the pilot or co-pilot could have sent an emergency signal if there had been a fire or other emergency onboard.

Authorities say the plane didn't send any emergency signals, though some analysts say it's still unclear whether the pilots tried but weren't able to communicate because of a catastrophic failure.

The official, who is not authorized to speak to the media, told CNN that the area the plane flew in after the turn is a heavily trafficked air corridor and that flying at 12,000 feet would have kept the jet well out of the way of that traffic.

Earlier Sunday, Malaysian authorities said the last transmission from the missing aircraft's reporting system showed it heading to Beijing -- a revelation that appears to undercut the theory that someone reprogrammed the plane's flight path before the co-pilot signed off with air-traffic controllers for the last time.

[1a sound asleep]

Sheep - Thats CNN saying military radar. Whos radar? And how can it be verified when there is no transponder encoding altitude transponder? I again suggest caution:sad:

[Kooljack]

May I suggest to any journos reading this who are going to attend the next Press Conference, to ask the officials for a 'present and latest version' of the timeline of events and facts of events from the time of departure of the flight.

[formationdriver]

Words of wisdom from anther forum: "A word of caution is always given to pilots when first learning the LNAV/VNAV system: it's best to study well and always keep an eye on what it's doing. It is only as good as the person punching the buttons, and the most common thing heard in today's modern cockpits is "What's it doing now???""

[ReadMyACARS]

Latest map of the search areas and whats been located can be found here

MH370 (http://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v3/davidtriggs.xdrlji4t/page.html#5/-42.715/89.824)

[Propduffer]

RE: Coagie, I won't address your personal attacks.
Are you sure that you understand what I meant by obfuscate?

I am in agreement with the way this forum has been moderated. I have no complaints about the redundant and off topic posts being removed. I've read most of them, there's no loss in the ones I've seen removed. This forum is for discussing the disappearance of MH370; IMO anything not germane to that discussion should be removed, including redundant posts.

I think that the stage we are now at will be seen as the "looking for a debris field" portion of the effort locate the wreckage. There are specialized vessels who are best used in their design mode, searching the bottom, but the search effort almost certainly must find a debris field first; anything from a 777 would make it possible to make a logical prediction for the likely location of the source, and from there a search with some possibility of success can be mounted for the location of the bulk of the wreck. The ping seems to me to be a long shot.

If the plane broke up on impact, as likely, there will be floating debris. It's unlikely that there will be significant radar reflections from the small pieces that are most likely to turn up.

Spotting anything real soon is unlikely, there is a lot of clutter in those waters and the weather is deteriorating. It would be hard to overestimate how difficult it must be to to spot a (probability off white or black) piece of floating debris among the whitecaps that are the norm there. Even if the short term fails to turn up anything, assuming that the aircraft broke up on impact, the debris, or remnants of it will almost certainly turn up somewhere, maybe next year on the Zealand's West Coast. But stuff will turn up someday somewhere if the aircraft broke up on impact.

[Cows getting bigger]

1a sound asleep. Military radar doesn't need a nicely compliant transponder to ascertain height. Equally, I'm sure that no one is going to spill the beans on the accuracy of their height finding radar.

[Pontius Navigator]

Pardon my ignorance but if there was something at the bottom of the ocean surely the MAD in the Orions would find it?

You are right. Google depth of ocean and range of MAD.

[Pontius Navigator]

Selfin,


These tracks whether they are magnetic or true. May all be inconsequential if the new Altitudes found to be 12000' or less. The B777 fuel burn and TAS would be totally different making the current search area too far away now.

A 12,000ft altitude does not correlate with lost radar contact at 200 miles,

[nitpicker330]

According to AMSA twitter feed the IL76 spotted the debris from 33,000' enroute back to YPPH, US Navy P8 then tasked to search the sighting area but nothing was found.

[DaveReidUK]

I am fully aware that FR24 relies on enthusiast Mode S receivers but am amazed that you seem to consider that this particular programmer was astute enough to be able to write a program that selected just these two particular messages to drop the altitude (while keeping the lat/long from the same squitter) when all his other messages were presented in totality.

Neither you nor I know exactly how FlightRadar24 processes the data it gets from enthusiasts, so I certainly wouldn't make any assumptions about the astuteness, or otherwise, or their programmer(s).

My point is simply that the data we see in those pseudo-messages isn't necessarily what was transmitted by the aircraft verbatim. If you don't believe that, look at the penultimate altitude readout (and others) before it reached FL350 - there is no encoding schema for either Mode C, Mode S or ADS-B that's capable of transmitting an altitude of 34591 feet.

[mm43]

A 12,000ft altitude does not correlate with lost radar contact at 200 milesYou're on the button there! :ok:

[simon001]

With the amount of energy and cost going into this search, news organizations and "unnamed sources" should be held accountable for the breaking news they broadcast to the world.

Military radar tracking shows that the aircraft changed altitude...a source close to the investigation into the missing flight told CNN. The plane flew as low as 12,000 feet...according to the source....The official, who is not authorized to speak to the media, told CNN...Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 dropped in altitude after sharp turn - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/)

This kind of information, if true, would be crucial to the search effort.

Unnamed "officials". Sources "close to the investigation". Everyone seems to be anonymous. The video that goes with the article also goes on to make other claims about fishermen interviewed by the journalist that saw the plane etc.

I find it disgusting, given what is at stake her, that this kind of journalism is splattered out by CNN. I think of the families in the hotels reading this, then bombarding the Malaysian authorities for verification. Who knows if CNN had the forethought to take it to them as well. But of course, all the sources are anonymous. So who's to know how that information came out, if someone is being paid to hand it over, what CNN did to verify it etc.

What a way to torture people. Let alone the constant timeline switching of the Malaysian Transport Authority, the effect of which also completely changes the likelihood of various scenarios that searchers have had to consider.

I can't think of a better example of poor crisis management, spurious information and wild speculation than with the disappearance of this aircraft.

[Pontius Navigator]

At normal cruise altitude and accounting for takeoff, though without correction for below-average # of pax.

Sure, dropping to 12000' would lower the range, but we don't know the exact descent profile and we don't know how long it stayed there. It would certainly not last full 7.5 fours at 12000' all the way through. (I can't find data on fuel burn at 12000' for any large aircraft, but even going down to 25000' would cut maximum range by ~10%)

See my previous answer, even 25k does not correlate with the last radar position.

Then there was a suggestion to increase range but flying more slowly and reducing fuel burn. It does not work that way. There are 3 speed ranges:

Maximum - gets there fastest but uses lots of fuel.

Range - goes furthest for the fuel burn.

Endurance - flies for longest time but not as far.

To fly the farthest is follows it would need to fly at best speed which is Range speed and cruise climb.

[mm43]

... there is no encoding schema for either Mode C, Mode S or ADS-B that's capable of transmitting an altitude of 34591 feet.In this particular case and others that went before it, the FR24 range of this station was at its limit. Corrupt data due to that alone is more likely the case.

[Mesoman]

EMP or EM has been mooted a couple of times as a possible cause of electronics failure in this incident.

That didn't happen. Aircraft operate in nasty EM environments as a matter of course. On the ground, they are exposed to nearby in-band transmitters (aviation frequencies). They are also exposed to high power microwave from ATC and ground control radars, and various other radio transmitters from ATC to cell phones to public safety and ground handling radios. In the air, they fly through thunderstorms and are hit by lightning quite frequently. Lightning is an extremely high power EMP source, with characteristics similar to a couple of components of nuclear HEMP (the "EMP" threat one reads about).

This means that aircraft electronics are well protected against EM and EMP threats (although nuclear-generated HEMP *might* damage some systems). Short of nuclear weapons or lightning, getting high powered damaging EM or EMP into an aircraft in cruise altitude flight is virtually impossible. I don't believe there were thunderstorms on the known flight path, and even if they were present, it would be very unlikely they could have caused this particular set of events.

EM/EMP/ESD did not take down this aircraft.

[dillboy]

I'm wondering how long it will be before it is announced that the South China sea is to be revisited.

[awblain]

Dillboy,

Only when Inmarsat's senior people appear wandering round London in sackcloth and ashes. They've been very clear.

Before the Inmarsat statement, there was no reason to look anywhere else but the South China Sea. Now there's no reason to look there.

Yesterday's French radar note was interesting, but it's gone quiet since. It might be that it took France two weeks to extract the information, and so it'll take everyone else with similar tools another two weeks to confirm it.

[Ian W]

You do realize that Li Ion batteries are the MAIN backup batteries on the Boeing 787 ?

And you do realize that those batteries are now better designed and in armoured battery boxes that have been tested in FAA certification tests to show that they contain a battery failure by inducing a battery fire inside them?

[brika]

Australian search a/c locates 2 objects

2 orange objects spotted by searchers

10 a/c being used for search. Additional planes dispatched to search area.

Nothing concrete though. These are just leads.

HMAS Success could retrieve objects "within hours"

[hamster3null]

See my previous answer, even 25k does not correlate with the last radar position.

Then there was a suggestion to increase range but flying more slowly and reducing fuel burn. It does not work that way. There are 3 speed ranges:

Maximum - gets there fastest but uses lots of fuel.

Range - goes furthest for the fuel burn.

Endurance - flies for longest time but not as far.

To fly the farthest is follows it would need to fly at best speed which is Range speed and cruise climb.

Right. What makes me curious is the hole in the Malaysian radar track. They somehow lost the aircraft about 100NM out, just past Pulau Perak, and then reacquired it later as it was moving away. This is very strange for an aircraft at constant altitude, but it could be explained if it descended low to cross Malaysia and started to climb back out to FL350(?) when it was out into the sea.

Line-of-sight distance for an aircraft at FL120 is just above 100 NM.

The question then becomes, how much range would it lose by dropping to FL120 for ~1 hour and then climbing back?

[DaveReidUK]

In this particular case and others that went before it, the FR24 range of this station was at its limit. Corrupt data due to that alone is more likely the case.

No. Read up on altitude encoding/decoding.

No matter how many bits of the AC may have been corrupted, if any, it will still only resolve to an altitude that's a multiple of 25' or 100', depending on which encoding schema is used. There simply aren't enough bits in the ADS-B packet to encode altitudes to the nearest foot, despite what the FR24 data implies.

[desmotronic]

so ma rep just said there was 200kg of lithium batteries in the hold ...

[Pontius Navigator]

Right. What makes me curious is the hole in the Malaysian radar track. They somehow lost the aircraft about 100NM out, just past Pulau Perak, and then reacquired it later as it was moving away. This is very strange for an aircraft at constant altitude, but it could be explained if it descended low to cross Malaysia and started to climb back out to FL350(?) when it was out into the sea.

It was certainly postulated that the aircraft flew lower over the peninsular (it was heard?) or did it?

Going dark to the radar could have been the result of entering the overhead but I don't know just how bigger hole that creates. In a proper air defence system an adjacent site will cover its neighbour's overhead. We have no idea of how integrated their radar system is or if there were adjacent radars active. We have been told that the military radar saw the turn back and we have seen a picture of the last contact point. We have been shown no evidence of tracking between the turn back and the last position.

[Passagiata]

Opposition leader in Australian Parliament also speaking about the find - one orange object and one "circular green" object. This bipartisan approach - and the opposition leader sounds very grave, and spoke sorrowfully and in specifics about tragic results for humans - makes me think it's a much more definite find, given that over the last couple of days there's been a bit of sniping about whether the PM was premature in his earlier announcement.

[Squawk_ident]

The Minister of Transport indicated that there was wooden pallets o/b the MAS370 but it could not be confirmed to be the same as the ones spotted.
He also said that some debris were located (one orange and one white) by an airplane and that they might be retrieved this evening (Malaysian time) or tomorrow morning. Next PC tomorrow 0930z

Editing: Mr Hishammuddin Tun Hussein is the Minister of defence and acting Minister of Transport

[Alchad]

From what I have read, the only "source" of how much fuel was loaded is attributed to Bloomberg as being 54 MT. The Malaysian authorities if I'm correct have only said something along the lines of "sufficient for Beijing plus some reserves"


There were 227 passengers on board which included 4 or 5 (don't have the exact number) of standby passengers because of "no shows".


As the aircraft was not fully loaded with passengers - I think I've read there were 50 plus spare seats - I'm curious as to why the standby passengers were presumably only allowed on because of the "no shows".


Does this mean the fuel capacity vs payload was the governing factor?


Point of my question is to do with the possible range of MH370. One of the early posts in this thread suggested that the plane could have been tankering fuel and carrying way over the amount needed for "Beijing plus reserve". If it was carrying a large amount of extra fuel then the maximum range would be affected. The standby passenger issue seems to contradict this theory though.

[Gridl0k]

I know it was asked, didn't see an answer yet - FO was on 6th 777 flight according to press conf, first 5 were examined flights and he 'passed'.

[Ian W]

In this particular case and others that went before it, the FR24 range of this station was at its limit. Corrupt data due to that alone is more likely the case.

I would suspect that FR24 may be 'averaging' several responses. The actual outputs from the aircraft are in multiples usually of 100 ft but some 25ft.

[Kooljack]

A bit slack, but what the CEO of Malaysian Airlines had failed to add was how many hours of sim time the F/O had clocked, to lend credence to his T7 'experience'.

[Ian W]

Cockpit Voice Recorders: The output from vastly updated technology is now available and ready to record hours of audio and video activity on the flight deck. However, it appears that concerns of pilot privacy still forbid their full use. 30 minutes max and no video. Is there a conflict here?

We bereft pax are left to wonder what the point is of spending millions to retrieve this piece of evidence from the bottom of the ocean, only to find there's nothing on it.

Let's hear from some of you pros out there.

Repeated inquiries like the recent BEA inquiry into AF447 have suggested better recordings and recordings of just the instrument panel(s) by video. But despite better recordings now being simple and cheap there is considerable back pressure from crews who do not trust their management not to attempt to misuse the recordings. This shows how managers and management attitudes can directly affect flight safety. But the kind of manager that would dig around in FOQA data to get at a crew is the kind that is too short-sighted to understand the flight safety impact of doing that.

[Coagie]

These latest sightings by the Australians and Chinese make me optimistic, that they're narrowing it down. If the plane did drop to 12,000 ft as reported last night, someone must have still been around to bring it back up to cruising altitude. I'm still confident in Inmarsat, Captain Kremlin's analysis overlaid by the weather satellite's contrail photos, so I can't see it staying at 12,000 for long, if that's actually true. A few days ago, I would have been surprised if they found the FDR and CVR before the pinger batteries ran out. Now, I think they'll do it.

[Speed of Sound]

One of the early posts in this thread suggested that the plane could have been tankering fuel and carrying way over the amount needed for "Beijing plus reserve".

Many thousands of posts ago, someone published the price per litre at PEK vs the price at KUL. This along with the assumption that Malaysian receives a 'significant' discount as a state owned* flag carrier suggested tankering fuel on this route was the norm.

(*Malaysian government has a 52% stake in the company)

[comcomtech]

One of the most fascinating and gruesome mysteries since the JFK assassination, MH370's disappearance has engaged the world's collective imagination.

Yet a view of posts to Pprune and Twitter shows we still react with knee jerk enthusiasm to every tantalizing satellite sighting of flotsam, although our oceans, like space around us, is filled with junk.

Let's go back to square one for a moment:

1. Whether cell calls were or were not possible, at least 80 (30%) phones should have been on and attempting to register with cell towers. The 9-11 Shanksville aircraft was at 40,000' and several air-to-ground calls were successfully placed. But again, the question is not calls, but registration (pings). Why no analysis of cell phone registration attempts from take-off and along any possible flight path?

2. Why would radar be off in Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, as well as long-range radar in China and Australia?

3. Wouldn't civil/military radar have tracked MH370 as it overflew Indonesian space (which it would have had to do assuming it was headed to the Indian ocean)? Why no discussion of the need for this data?

4. How can INMARSAT pings all be at 40 degrees from the satellite? I realize this has been covered here on the basis of aircraft altitude, but it makes no sense to me. I understand that the 40 degrees is the angle from the satellite to the aircraft. No aircraft would fly a 40-degree curve from a satellite. Constant 40 degree pings would suggest the aircraft had landed and its engines were still running.

[GlueBall]

"I never saw anything that would LNAV us to the S Pole."
It's because you haven't wanted to snuff yourself out, cover your tracks into the middle of nowhere and keep people guessing.

[DX Wombat]

As the aircraft was not fully loaded with passengers - I think I've read there were 50 plus spare seats - I'm curious as to why the standby passengers were presumably only allowed on because of the "no shows".

I haven't seen any mention of the actual number of no shows but that maybe because I missed a now deleted post. It may be possible that it was a large party travelling together, perhaps a school trip, which for some reason was delayed en route. I haven't seen the total number of standby passengers mentioned anywhere either so maybe all of them were boarded not just five of them.

[glenbrook]

Well no thanks to the CVR with 2hours we certainly wont know what actually was discussed :(

What century are we in?

People should quit complaining about the short duration of the CVR. Just because it is possible to buy a terabyte flash disk down the road does not mean that every CVR should keep hundreds of hours.

This particular aircraft was built in 2002 and Flash technology was not nearly so advanced then as it is now. Furthermore, there is always a several year lag between the advances in consumer electronics and the components that are suitable, reliable enough and certified for use in airplanes.
Airplane technology needs to be simple and completely reliable. Boeing's experience with batteries on the 787 shows the risks of getting too fancy and high tech.

[otech]

Prime Minister Tony Abbott says Australian authorities have located new "objects" during the search for missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370.

He has told Parliament the objects were located 2,500 kilometres south-west of Perth by a Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion about 2:45pm (AEDT).

Mr Abbott says the first object was grey or green and circular and the second was orange and rectangular.

He says HMAS Success is on the scene and is attempting to locate and recover the objects.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/.... (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-24/chinese-search-plane-finds-suspicious-objects-in-indian-ocean/5341692)

[cats_five]

<snip>

HMAS Success could retrieve objects "within hours"



I see HMAS Success has a helipad. Is she carrying a helicopter at present?

[NeoFit]

@ comcomtech

4. How can INMARSAT pings all be at 40 degrees from the satellite?

What's the problem?

Several explanations have been posted here: for instance (http://www.pprune.org/8395509-post7446.html)

[GreenOnGo]

It seems that after 390 pages, we are set to repeat all previous wild guesses and conjecture. :ugh:

[Stuffy]

Illegal shipments ?

Malaysia?s unwillingness to release the full cargo manifest from missing Flight MH370 will hamper the search effort | News.com.au (http://mobile.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/malaysias-unwillingness-to-release-the-full-cargo-manifest-from-missing-flight-mh370-will-hamper-the-search-effort/story-fnizu68q-1226863022091)

[500N]

Cats

"I see HMAS Success has a helipad. Is she carrying a helicopter at present?"

I don't think so.

From my understanding, she doesn't normally carry a helicopter but can have one embarked if needed.

[VR-HFX]

Alchad

From what I have read, the only "source" of how much fuel was loaded is attributed to Bloomberg as being 54 MT. The Malaysian authorities if I'm correct have only said something along the lines of "sufficient for Beijing plus some reserves"


There were 227 passengers on board which included 4 or 5 (don't have the exact number) of standby passengers because of "no shows".


As the aircraft was not fully loaded with passengers - I think I've read there were 50 plus spare seats - I'm curious as to why the standby passengers were presumably only allowed on because of the "no shows".


Does this mean the fuel capacity vs payload was the governing factor?


Point of my question is to do with the possible range of MH370. One of the early posts in this thread suggested that the plane could have been tankering fuel and carrying way over the amount needed for "Beijing plus reserve". If it was carrying a large amount of extra fuel then the maximum range would be affected. The standby passenger issue seems to contradict this theory though.


The questions you ask are all easily answered by some simple research, even if you are unfamiliar with the a/c and have no flying experience.

The 777-200ER can hold approx 120MT +/- of avgas.
The 54MT on board was sufficient for the mission + alternate with a bit to spare.
The 777 burns approx 6.5-6.7MT an hour in the cruise.
Empty weight is approx 140MT
Max T/O weight is approx 295-298MT
300 pax and bags approx 30MT

I have no idea how much freight was uplifted but simple math tells you they could have loaded a lot of lead ingots and still been under MTOW.

On ultra long haul there is obviously a trade-off between pax/frt and fuel but for a flight of this duration there is none.

The standby pax argument is a red herring.

[Passagiata]

The huge Chinese diaspora in Perth are reported as preparing to possibly host the relatives, planning to host them in their homes if necessary, and identifying spaces for briefings, worship and counselling. I think the relatives will have a better experience in Australia if that comes about - partly of course because Malaysia is a much poorer country and Perth has of course had time to prepare, and Australia has a well organised disaster relief infrastructure and has planned for this sort of thing (not specific to an overseas disaster, but much of the planning would apply).

[lexxie747]

VF-HRX

120 mt of AFGAS??? You don't know what you are talking about, so much is true......

[Lost in Saigon]

Comcomtech - your understanding is wrong ,answers are in the thread many times

Seats - a pilot confirmed often limited by freight, so pax = max-freight which in this case was max-50, 5 don't show 5 standby get on.

Yes, the standby's are puzzling to me as well. Were they revenue or non-revenue standby's? Why can't they tells us the exact takeoff weight? Are they trying to hide something? As with everything else we get from the Malaysians, we have to very skeptical of the information we have so far.

If the aircraft was at FL350 that early in the flight, I would assume they were not at Max Takeoff Weight: B777-200ER 656,000 lb(297,550 kg)?

I don't have the exact numbers but max takeoff weight could also mean landing overweight on that length of flight so it is possible that they were weight restricted by the Max Landing Weight: B777-200ER 470,000 lb(213,180 kg) ?

[Trackmaster]

It will beggar belief if Success sailed without a helicopter embarked.

[imaynotbeperfect]

I think you'll find that with this ranges its mostly SATCOM and won't be streamed live online

[atakacs]

So here is my question: did the missing Malaysia 777 keep sending 'telemetry' data to R-R until the engines stopped?
You obviously need some sort of "channel" to send your telemetry. My understanding is that it can be relayed trough ground stations and/or satellite, at an extra cost. The airline is not using (paying for) the satellite service so there was no telemetry sent once the aircraft left ground coverage.
Or did this data stream stop after the first hour or so – and if so why?
That's the 1 bn $ question... Apparently the Malaysian authorities believe it was a deliberate action (be it crew or someone else in control of the aircraft).

Side note about the "debris" sighting - I am of the firm belief that if nothing else this unfortunate incident will probably rise the awareness of the general public abut the amount of junk floating in the ocean...

[777fly]

Bigglesbrother: re post # 7796

If the satcom had been logged off via the CDU C, I don't see how any engine data could be transmitted.

[slats11]

Latest AMSA release. Looks like they are trying to locate these latest objects tonight before last light (which is pretty much right now).

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/24032014MediaUpdate15MH370FINAL.pdf


If the aircraft does turn up in this location, I think many (most) of us accept it can only have been a deliberate act. It is very hard to conceive of an accident where:
1. all the pax became incapacitated
2. there was no distress call of any sort
3. all comms were either disabled or switched off
4. the aircraft then turned back over Malaysia, then flew NW, and then turned south after flying far enough west to avoid Indonesia
5. and then flew for another 6 hours using the autopilot (which survived whatever it was which disabled lots of other systems)

The pax must have been incapacitated. GSM phones work just fine at altitude. I made a call from my iPhone at FL280 over remote Australia a few weeks back. Couldn't get out on the aircraft phone, but my iPhone worked just fine. In this day and age, 200 odd pax and crew are just not going to sit ad do nothing when they believe they are caught up in some act of presumed terrorism.

Hypoxia & hypothermia would be the only feasible way to quickly incapacitate a large number of people. The flight deck would have greater reserves of oxygen. The perpetrator may also have packed some warm clothing.

I wonder if anyone has looked at the computers of all those on board. Someone may have done some research on human physiology and altitude and hypoxia and hypothermia.

[Frequent Traveller]

We may ask MAS to disclose the cargo Manifest ... but from their mitigated response, we may deduct some unwillingness to provide full details thereof ? Whatever the reasons for holding back on this info, there is a SECOND SOURCE (who also are an "Interested Party" in this affair) : the Underwriters !

If the Cargo Manifest ever itemized any "Valuable Goods" (whichever) the correct procedure is to take out special P&I provisions for coverage of Valuables.

The P&I (Protection & Indemnity) Underwriting document could be contracted 'ad hoc' or could simply be mentioned as a routine addendum to some frame coverage, but "prudence" or correct procedure calls for such 'valuables' if any to have been explicitly brought to the attention of Underwriters.

If Malaysian management are unwilling to provide the relevant Cargo Manifest, the same info may be obtained from the aforementioned 2nd source ?

[Kooljack]

This little snippet from new.com.au:-

Malaysia’s unwillingness to release the full cargo manifest from missing Flight MH370 will hamper the search effort
By Julian Swallow
News Corp Australia
March 24, 2014 5:47PM

MALAYSIA’S continuing refusal to share the cargo manifest for Flight MH370 with an Australian-led search and rescue operation will hamper the effort to find the missing aircraft, an aviation expert says.

It is part of mounting concerns about the way in which Malaysian authorities have handled the search for the missing aircraft as it enters its third week.

Strategic Aviation Solutions chairman Neil Hansford said it also suggests Malaysian authorities are not being fully transparent about what the Boeing 777-200ER, which disappeared on March 8 an hour into a journey from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, was carrying.

“To me, there is no reason why they wouldn’t declare the cargo manifest unless you’ve got something to hide,” he said.

“There is no reason you wouldn’t have given it to AMSA (the Australian Maritime Safety Authority) on the first day of the search.”

AMSA has requested a cargo manifest for Flight M370 from Malaysia Airlines.

The manifest is expected to give the search operation a better idea in identifying objects they spot in the Indian Ocean if they indeed came from the missing plane.

However, the Malaysian authorities to date have refused to release it, insisting the document is with the police who are conducting their own investigation into the cause of the plane’s disappearance.

“There is certainly no reason why they shouldn’t share a cargo manifest with a legitimate search agency because it will only contribute to the search effort,” Professor Jason Middleton, the head of the school of aviation at the University of New South Wales, said.

“I would have viewed that (not sharing the information) as unusual.”

Professor Middleton said the only reason he could think of for not sharing the information was that something of “Malaysian national interest” was being carried on the aircraft.

“But in that case you could just redact that bit,” he said.

He said the whole investigation had been “totally characterised by innuendo and false data”.

“One of the possibilities is that someone put something on board that wasn’t supposed to be there,” he said.

Australian, Chinese and French satellite images have picked up what might be large pieces of debris from the missing aircraft, which was carrying 239 passengers and crew, while aircraft scanning the area on Saturday spotted what might be pallets and cargo straps.

Mr Hansford said Australia was spending tens of millions of dollars looking for the plane in a remote section of the Indian Ocean, 2,500km southwest of Perth.

“Here we are, Australia at great cost looking for the aircraft, and Malaysia won’t even cooperate and tell us what was on the aircraft,” he said.

Malaysia Airlines chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya on March 18 revealed the aircraft was carrying “three to four tonnes” of mangosteen.

Four days after that, he also confirmed press reports that the plane was carrying some small lithium-ion batteries but stressed they were transported according to International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) rules.

Professor Middleton said a severe fire caused by lithium-ion batteries would require “gallons of fluid to put it out”, but said if this was the cause of the aircraft’s disappearance it would be unlikely it could have flown all the way to the southern Indian Ocean.

Malaysia?s unwillingness to release the full cargo manifest from missing Flight MH370 will hamper the search effort | News.com.au (http://mobile.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/malaysias-unwillingness-to-release-the-full-cargo-manifest-from-missing-flight-mh370-will-hamper-the-search-effort/story-fnizu68q-1226863022091)

[Biggles1957]

@Frequent Traveller


If Malaysian management are unwilling to provide the relevant Cargo Manifest, the same info may be obtained from the aforementioned 2nd source ?


This assumes the Malaysians have been up-front with their insurance declarations? On the evidence of the last 14 days, it seems this may not be the case?

[Hempy]

Last a/c now RTB

11:30PM
Just to recap on the developments in the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

The flight crew of a Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion has spotted debris - up to four objects - in the search area in the southern Indian Ocean, southwest of Perth.

The P-3 Orion dropped flares onto the ocean as a marker for other search crews aboard aircraft and ships.

The HMAS Success is heading to the location to pick up the debris and verify if it is part of the Boeing 777.

A flight crew from a Chinese Ilyushin IL-76 search plane had also spotted debris in a different location earlier on Monday.

The objects were described as two larger "white and rectangular" items and a number of smaller white fragments scattered over an area of a "few kilometres".

Chinese icebreaker Xuelong is en route to the search area and should arrive early on Tuesday morning.

[flown-it]

CPDLC (Controller to Pilot Data Link Clearance) and ADS B(Air Data Service)

Just to make sure all understand what this magic does it might be appropriate to get the acronyms correct. :ugh:

CPDLC is Communication not clearance and is via satellite and FMC. It is via text and there are "canned" messages from the controller and a menu of " canned" responses for the crew to select.

ADS-B is Automatic Dependant Surveillance and is the way ATC tracks aircraft. With -B that is direct from the Transponder and if the transponder was off then AFAIK, ADS-B info would no longer be available.

[AstraMike]

Is that Short Tons or Long Tons?

I understand that a 777-200ER has a Max TOW of 656,000 LBS and a Max Landing Weight of 470,000 LBS (I am sorry, but I am old enough to think in pounds). I think I am right in thinking it took off with 54.1 Tons of fuel, or 121,400Lbs out of a possible max fuel of 303,292 LBS (assuming 6.71LB/USG)? It is logical that this figure comes from the pre-flight weight and balance calculations. Anyway, that is not nearly max fuel and if it really did climb then descend, then fly at low altitude for a while before climbing again, it would have gone through quite a bit of its 121,400LBS of fuel to get to the waypoint where it was, apparently last seen.

I do wonder what the weight of the aircraft might have been at 01:19 with regards to Maximum Landing Weight...

[Lonewolf_50]

Does anyone else get the distinct impression, that after several days of the most intensive air and sea search effort since AF447, in which virtually nothing of real interest has been found - apart from pallets that could have come from anywhere, plus a few indistinct satellite pics that have failed to produce anything of value - that they're most definitely looking in the wrong area?
Not necessarily. The area they initialy established for search, the original large zone west of Australia, was very large. Even the "smaller" areas since refined are quite large in absolute terms. Add in big seas, weather not always optimal for visual search, wind, and a very deep ocean. Needle in haystack, yet again.

On the basis that it went down somewhere near this searched area, there is still the matter of how the aircraft hit the water. If it remained more or less intact, what would you expect to find? If it hit like a ton of bricks, as AF 447 did, there is still the problem of drift and dispersion. As the first assets arrived with a time late to datum of a week the "farthest on circle" of whatever bits and pieces are buoyant is still going to be a bugger.

[oldoberon]

Re P3 debris siting, hopefully the rectangular orange object a slide and the circular green/grey object underside of a raft, as both objects relatively near to each other and two more objects with no details that would indicate a common source and not a very old one .

[LegallyBlonde]

Today's Sydney Morning Herald quoted a professor of oceanography as saying that the search area in the southern Indian ocean is quite clean and free of rubbish compared to other oceans.

I can't post a link because I don't have a sub to the Herald online, I read it in the printed edition.
Maybe the professor is wrong but I'm just posting what was said. :)

[flexthrust]

SOPS, don't think the RAT will power the Apilot after dual eng failure. It provides hydraulic PWR for primary flt controls and electric for xfer busses only from memory.

[ChicoG]

PETALING JAYA: Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is expected to hold a press conference at 10pm at PWTC on new developments on missing MH370.

[paddylaz]

Looks like they've found it (by it, i mean identifiable wreckage that could only have come from mh370).

Malaysian Prime Minister is flying in for a special emergency announcement in 1hr, with family having a private meeting 30 mins before. Highly irregular from the usual itinerary.

Looks like this is it.

[flt001]

Press conference and ROVs en-route looks like they have found something significant.

Let's hope for a quick recovery of the boxes.

14 days left.

[Pontius Navigator]

Is that Short Tons or Long Tons?

54.1 Tons of fuel, or 121,400Lbs out of a possible max fuel of 303,292 LBS (assuming 6.71LB/USG)?

Very short tons :) 121,400lbs at 1,000lb/t converts very nicely to 54.1 metric tons and not the nonsense statement of 121MT.

[flexthrust]

From FCOM
main tanks (wing) 29.1 tonnes each
Center tank 79.3 tonnes
Total useable fuel 137.5 tonnes @ fuel density of 0.8029

[me myself and fly]

Emergency meeting with Relatives at 21:30 Local tonight

Then
Press Conference at 10pm

Routine updates would likely just wait until tomorrow. Serious news to warrant another presser tonight, last one wrapped 3 hrs ago.

[Daygo]

Reports suggest that one of the items found is a square orange coloured object. Is there any possibility this could be a life raft?

[me myself and fly]

Sky Sources: relatives of missing plane passengers to be booked on charter flights to take them to Australia


(looks like they may have found the debris)

[LegallyBlonde]

Maybe Success has found something. Nothing on news here yet (Oz) Will see if anything on 1am news in half an hour.

ETA: Poor families, at least they will be treated gently if they are flown here. Hope and pray there is some closure soon.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-24/chinese-search-plane-finds-suspicious-objects-in-indian-ocean/5341692
Malaysia Airlines MH370: PM Tony Abbott says new objects located south-west of Perth - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Flight Lieutenant Josh Williams, who was on board the P-3 Orion, said the flight was successful.
"We were looking for debris in the water and we sighted a number of objects on the surface and beneath the surface visually as we flew over the top if it," he said.
"The first object was rectangular in shape and slightly below the ocean. The second object was circular, also slightly below the ocean. We came across a long cylindrical object that was possibly two metres long, 20 centimetres across.

"Everyone is quite hyped."

[slats11]

Tweet on the AMSA site states the last aircraft (Japanese and Australian P3) have left the area without any further sightings.

So the Malaysian PM press conference may be about something else. Or else tweet is wrong and AMSA are saying nothing until the relatives are told (which seems only correct).

Looking at the maps of search activities, they seem to be searching smaller areas than they did the first few days - despite more assets joining the search. Australian PM has been very bullish also. It does make you wonder what other information they have had.

[buttrick]

Ads does not need the transponder to be serviceable, just a VHF radio. That's why most aircraft on Flightradar drop off the site when they go overwater for long distances.

[skytrax]

@OPENDOOR

Not really. Slide rafts would be deployed after the aircraft ditches, what we call ditching in aviation. It is done by the pilots with the clear intention to do so.
In ideal conditions aircraft floats for a while and cabin crew would open doors in armed mode. Slide rafts are deployed automatically when doors are opened in armed mode. Cabin crew would evacuate the pax on rafts, disconnect the rafts and apply sop's to survive for as long as possible and signal when activity is observed in the nearby area.
A B777 raft is large, it can fit up to 80 pax. It does have an orange canopy.....if the sea was rough it would be very hard for a raft to be afloat after 14 days, but you never know.

[buttrick]

The life-rafts/slides operate automatically when the doors are opened, if the doors have been armed. Remember the "doors to automatic" announcements?

The slides/life-rafts MAY deploy during a crash landing where a door is damaged, but not automatically otherwise.

[oldoberon]

A quick point on the batteries were they something special, because the vast majority of them (even known branded) are manufactured IN china (look at your phone, pc, camera). Some use basic internal high quality cells manufactured in japan (and perhaps malay/singapore in offshore plants)

I vape and many forums tell us the better 18650 batteries, those which are ASSEMBLED in China using number of high quality "button" cells.

[sky9]

Would the aircraft have been ZFW limited? It would answer the question as to why the standby passengers were not loaded and also give a clue as to the weight of the "undeclared?" cargo and why the cargo manifest isn't being published.

Anyone familiar with the figures would like to do the calculations?

[scrunchthecat]

Sky News is reporting that the Malaysian government is planning to fly the families from Beijing to Australia.

[oldoberon]

BBC just read out a txt sent to relatives. from mem gist of it - we must now assume the aircraft has crashed and there are no survivors.

would they send such a bland text when he is due to meet them.

[lurker999]

Sky reporting

"Relatives told that they are sure without reasonable doubt that mh370 is lost with no survivors"

[Gridl0k]

AAIB briefed PM that Inmarsat have completed "unprecedented" further analysis, have concluded 370 flew along Southern corridor, last position Indian Ocean W of Perth.

Based on this have concluded plane lost there. Further details 'tomorrow'.

[Golf_Seirra]

News conference does not confirm wreckage found belongs to flight...only last ping confirms southern route....:rolleyes:

[captains_log]

I thought they had already more less confirmed this news, why a newsflash to confirm what we already knew :suspect:

Edit to say i believe some of this 'debris' retrieved IS from MH370.

[LegallyBlonde]

1am radio news reporting the same as Sky news - relatives told aircraft lost with no survivors.

Hope more info emerges when Captain's wife is interviewed and also explanation for his 2 min phone call with the mystery woman.