Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[MountainBear]

MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled - Latest - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-acars-cannot-be-disabled-1.521314?)

According to this article the reason that ACARS was switched off was because it was a flight to China and the ACARS service provider used by Air Malaysia does not cover China.

[VinRouge]

2 hour cvr? Not a chance it's still on there.

[sprocky_ger]

I am not a pilot (I'm not considering flight simming for 24.5 years as being a professional pilot :E )

Theories I heard / read and ruled out (due to my logical approach and analysis of available information and / or simming experience)

1. Kidnapping by aliens
-> Oh, c'mon!
2. Landing at any airfield (especially Diego Garcia or airfields with short rwy)
-> Really? There would have been a bunch of people to notice that. Even if it was Diego Garcia: after such a long time something would have leaked to the media.
3. Iran or North Korea (or any "suspect" country / terrorist "club") captured the plane
-> Sorry, this is way out of their imagination. Although this might have given them the idea for future ops
4. Items in cargo hold might have been of interest for the pilots (or any suspicious persons / groups)
-> this would have required a landing (see point 2.)
5. Pax (IT specialists) might have been of interest for the pilots (or any suspicious persons / groups)
-> this would have required a landing (see point 2.)
6. An experiment was carried out
-> Stealth features on a pax plane? Way out of technological capabilities.
7. Fire (especially on main gear)?
-> Radar data (assuming those are correct) showed that the plane climbed above planned FL. Why should a pilot do this in case of a fire?
8. (has been ruled out already) the plane might have been sighted near Maledives.
-> Last contact was around 1:20 near Malaysia. Flight to Male would have been 5hrs - maybe 6hrs. That would be around 7:00/8:00 Malaysia time or 4:00/5:00 Maledives local time. How can somebody identify that aircraft in the dark?
9. Zaharie Ahmad Shah used his self-made simulator for approaches to Indian, Sri Lankan destinations as well as Diego Garcia / Male
-> So what? Not mentioned in the media: which other airports he used to approach? I like island-hopping in my sim. Diego Garcia and Male were also on my list. Am I suspicious now?

Did I miss some speculation? My approach is to wait for the analysis. In the case of AF447 it took more than two years. In the meantime I just "enjoy" ruling out any theory that isn't logical. It's a shame that so many people that call themselves "specialists" or "professional analysts" start to create their own stories to get some attention when so many humans are missing.

[xcitation]

Tokenbird

I've created such a picture on my flight planning software but didn't want to put the picture up here because my software provider might not want me posting screenshots of their software on the internet.

Looks like the Malaysians aren't the only ones with issues releasing data!:oh:

[Airmike767]

http://www.civilaviation.gov.eg/accident/Reports/B777_SU-GBP_cockpit_fire_accident%20final%20Report%20responding%20to %20boeing%20comments%2019-09-2012a.pdf

The entire report and easily could be the issue!

[awblain]

There was only a moon for the first part of the night. By the time the aircraft left Kuala Lumpur it was set. At the time of the flight it was a moonless night.

[GarageYears]

To clarify incorrect information that leads to the wrong scenarios and assumptions:
- I have asked pilot friends and between us we have over 100,000 commercial hours. None of us know how to turn the Acars off in the flight deck. Cannot be done.:rolleyes: Really.... try MFD > COMM > MANAGER > ACARS

Four clicks and ACARS is OFF

:mad:

(to clarify - this does NOT turn off the transceiver, since ACARS is simply a SOURCE for the selected transceiver unit, which incidentally can be ANY of the VHF, HF or SAT radios fitted, but I'm not going to explain all the mode select logic here...)

[Mr Optimistic]

If acars is shutdown that way does it send a report? Can the comms channels not just be switched off?

[GarageYears]

If acars is shutdown that way does it send a report? Can the comms channels not just be switched off?

It does not send a report if shutdown as described above. There is no magic here, the system simply uses the same set of radios as voice comms - think of it as a fancy modem (remember them?), that gathers certain information from other systems.

[sprocky_ger]

I mentioned the speculations I was aware of. My opinion is -sshhhh, nobody should know it right now - that the aircraft finally crashed. It may be that one (or several) of the crew had intentions to land the aircraft somewhere (I'm not ruling out this rumour) but it did not come true (again: my opinion). Might be the pilot lost control in low level flight (unlikely) or the aircraft ran out of fuel. Still speculations and not founded on any evidence.

[Sheep Guts]

These Kota Bahru Fisherman definitely saw something.

Several ground witnesses claim they saw Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/19/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane-ground-witnesses/)

The airport there closes at midnight or remains open for late departures. Also the VOR VKB is a very busy airway intersection and a lot of traffic very high overhead. Maybe our reported Radar hits from Thailand and Malaysia saw the aircraft flying towards KOTA BAHRU, and followed some other target after VKB.
Obviously the description "lights like coconuts"means the aircraft landing lights were on. So it was below 10000 feet. Was it trying to land at WMKC. Maybe our Flightradar24 friends can show what was flying through and above VKB around 0130am?

[parabellum]

"satellite signal can only come from a moving plane - BBC has learned" no source given


What they probably mean is the air/ground logic has to be 'Air' for a signal to be transmitted, no guarantee the aircraft ever reverted to 'Ground'?

[brika]

suninmyeyes #6060

Very well explained indeed.

Would not all the evidence (and lack of it) so far leave the signature of a pilot (?who) on a suicide mission with the intention of no one ever finding any evidence? Also no suicide note found, so far.

Besides the aussies are quite sure of an area in the South Indian Ocean (in line of pings and probable point of fuel exhaustion (albeit responsible for this quadrant's search).:sad:

[PompeyPaul]

Apparently

BBC News - New clues in search for Malaysia Airlines MH370 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26654975)

[pharmaboy]

What chance that the turns etc were searching for an airport that would have lights on?

Just thinking that in an emergency with no comms, flying on visuals mostly, landing on an unlit airfield is going to be something to avoid, if not impossible, and I would guess that different airfields have different policies after curfew.

(Non professional long time lurker)-

[mickjoebill]

**If** this indeed occurred, it seems to me to be pretty important in working out causation as it would show:

- there was something wrong enough to cause incoherence and, it seems likely, no further subsequent contact;
- radio working, with Fariq speaking; but
- crucially: there is no attempt by MH 370 to hide itself (e.g. by simply not answering) and indeed there is action inconsistent with an attempt at stealth

The latter would be hard to reconcile with a rogue flight deck or intruder bent on stealth, unless it is the aftermath of a scenario similar to FedEx 705 with either: a rogue left able to fly stealthily and who does so, or no-one left able to continue flying.


911 hijackers mistakenly transmitted to ATC when they meant to make an announcement to the cabin, the reported mumbling could simply be a mis-keyed mic from a rouge on the flight deck.


Mickjoebill

[costalpilot]

Im thoroughly confused. Initialy I thought it was wrong of anyone to assert as fact that they knew when a new waypoint was inserted into the flight plan. But I came here and the posts I read seemed to me to accept the premise. I retired 10 years ago but do not recall that a flightplan change was somehow automatically reported to the ground.

But now, "what we know" is being challenged---here anyway, not on CNN. For two days CNN has been challenging its "experts" to explain why a new off course waypoint was entered into the flight plan. As in this report from WOLF today. And I quote:

" significant new developments.....and right now to that sharp turn to the west that the jet took about an hour after takeoff. A senior US official tells CNN the altered route was actually entered into the plane guidance system at least 12 minutes before the co-pilot signed off with air traffic controllers with the words 'all right, good night'".

Someone please tell me how anyone would know what was entered into the flight plan short of someone transmitting that info via acars.

this is a question.

[ExSp33db1rd]

#6060 suninmyeyes.

Point of interest - you mention that you never select Stby. on the transponder, even when selecting a new squawk ?

"in my day" we were told to always select stby. when re-selecting, to guard against "accidentally" - even momentarily - pausing on one of the "77XX" emergency selections whilst re-arranging the numbers, to do so would immediately set off an alarm in the ATC unit monitoring, and even if immediately changed would raise suspicions that you were in trouble, and subsequently trying to mask the situation - i.e. a hijack attempt, so action would be irrevocably started.

What's changed ?

Thanks.

[DCrefugee]

One big thing I took away from this is that the Australians appear to be taking a larger public role, as is the NTSB. That's good.

The other big thing is the AMSA guy saying there were multiple SATCOM "keep-alive" pings, and their records are available. They have some more processing to do on those pings.

They're also saying the aircraft may have been on a 180-degree heading, but they didn't say where that track began.

[overthewing]

@Sheep guts

Maybe our Flightradar24 friends can show what was flying through and above VKB around 0130am?

At 17.30Z, the only flight in the air above Kota Bharu was China Eastern Flight MU5093, going south towards Singapore at 37,000ft.

[Space Jet]

@DCrefugee

So there saying there is more than six pings?

[brika]

costalpilot #6388

tell me how anyone would know what was entered into the flight plan

Incidentally, at the KL press conf today, it was questioned and denied. They were sure that no other flight plan was on the plane.

This begs the question as to who entered a new flight plan - turnback - zig-zag -then out over the wide blue ocean towards the South Pole.:suspect:

[GarageYears]

What's changed ?

The current generation of transponder control heads use push-buttons to enter the code, so the code does not 'change' until the fourth and final digit is entered. The older rotary controls would of course scroll through the digits as they were changed, so if you paused mid-entry, you'd get an undesired code - some of the more recent rotary units have a few seconds 'pause' built into them, such that the code isn't 'set' until you stop turning the controls for 3-5 seconds (yet again negating the need to select STBY).

[Ian W]

Are you suggesting stacked beam height finding rather than a nodder?

I don't think I've seen a nodder in years. The more modern three dimensional radars are usually stationary antennas with electronically scanned/steered beams. There are also stacked beams and multipath radars that do the same. Not sure what the new MADGE system is.

When an aircraft is maneuvering the size of the primary response can vary considerably particularly aircraft with large vertical surfaces like the T7. All I was pointing out was that sudden increases in signal can cause quite large errors in the primary systems height finding.

I think that the last nodder I watched was at Lindholme :)

[Aireps]

One "fact" that has not been mentioned much here is the (supposed) radio contact between MH 370 and another aircraft in which an MH 370 pilot (likely the FO) was reported to be "mumbling".

As reported (and the source seems to be MISSING MH370: Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-pilot-i-established-contact-with-plane-1.503464) on 9 March):

Based on the timing, the reported destination (NRT), the statement that the aircraft was a 777 and was "far into Vietnamese airspace when he was asked to relay" and the fact that the pilot knew enough to recognise the voices on MH 370, the relevant flight would appear to be MAS 88, KUL-NRT, a 772, scheduled dep 23:35, which was near Da Nang at that time.
So: what is the source and status of this "fact"? I haven't been able to find anything "official" (for what that's worth), but it seems unlikely that the NST would print something like that if it were complete fiction.

I've posted on this report by NST 5 days ago: Radio contact with MH88 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-194.html#post8377615), but this alleged communication between MH370 and MH88 was never confirmed by other sources.

[Ian W]

Quote [Old Carthusian]:
However, even though the rarity of the hijack or pilot deviance explanation is significant this particular line of investigation still fits the known facts better.

Correct:ok:: While several theories could fit the facts of plane going 'dark' (cascading electrical, mechanical failures for whatever reason) and turning west off course (airworthiness, compromised avionics issues, cockpit fire -head for the nearest airfield you know) there is the fact of the Immarsat data indicating the plane continued to fly for 7+ hours (and the turn was per-programmed) -Unless of course the Immarsat data is not a valid incontrovertible fact which raises a whole set of questions as to why it has officially been presented as such.:(

And the INMARSAT data shows that the aircraft did not go dark due to total power failure as power was still on to the SATCOM.

While it is difficult to follow the repeats of assertions of denials of assertions of corrected information .... :confused: It is apparent that the INMARSAT data is believed by the Australian, New Zealand and US maritime reconnaissance who are flying out into the middle of nowhere and also by the Chinese who are searching again in potentially reachable areas. I rather doubt that these new searches would be happening due to a PR statement.

What is clear is that the public (which unfortunately includes us) is not being given the full picture - for obvious reasons.

[Heli-phile]

John Young AMSA (Emergency response division) briefing was very interesting.
Acting on information from NTSB He explained that:

"Regular messages from the aircraft, at approximately hourly intervals during its flight. Those transmission were detected by a communications satellite over the indian ocean and with the time of those communications and the distance, Then clarified "They can't plot exact distance but sequentially they can be build up into a route the aircraft took."

The wording here is crucial, it implies that all pings were received and from that, a 'join the dots' plot can be derived. This would be the first confirmation that all pings were received, not just the last one!
Unless the Australians are assuming this is what NTSB has done, this would indicate the aircraft has been plotted heading due south or of course due North as the arcs are mirrored!

[LASJayhawk]

FWIW: every satcom I've worked on has gotten its position data from the FMS.

Working satcom implies working FMS to me...

[AndyJS]

BBC News, which is usually very reliable, is reporting that the aircraft must have been flying at 8:11, although the reasoning behind this hasn't been revealed.

[Vinnie Boombatz]

Apologies if this was already posted:

AMSA :: Australian Maritime Safety Authority (http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/)

Most recent John Young press conference (excerpted on BBC):

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B4w6RpGjTiQpQ2dlbmJJMkRPeUE&usp=sharing&tid=0B4w6RpGjTiQpM1dxMzdSTHRMeW8

Summary update for 20 Mar 2014:

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/200314MediaRelease_Update5MH370search.pdf

And the link to more media at the bottom of the PDF:

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B4w6RpGjTiQpM1dxMzdSTHRMeW8&usp=sharing

He cites the NTSB several times. The NTSB seems to have stopped posting after 12 March, with only one other release prior, on 8 March.

Press Release March 12, 2014 (http://www.ntsb.gov/news/2014/140312.html)

"NTSB UPDATES STATEMENT ON MISSING B-777 INVESTIGATION MARCH 12

National Transportation Safety Board investigators who traveled to Kuala Lumpur over the weekend are assisting Malaysian authorities who are leading the search efforts for the Boeing 777 that went missing five days ago.


Investigators with expertise in air traffic control and radar are providing technical assistance to the Malaysian authorities who are working on locating the missing jetliner.


The NTSB plans no further releases of information on the investigation."


8 March release:


Press Release March 8, 2014: NTSB positioning team to offer assistance in investigation of Malaysia Airlines 777 event (http://www.ntsb.gov/news/2014/140308.html)


"NTSB positioning team to offer assistance in investigation of Malaysia Airlines 777 event
March 8

The National Transportation Safety Board has a team of investigators en route to Asia to be ready to assist with the investigation of the March 8 Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 event. The Boeing 777 went missing on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.


Once the location of the airplane is determined, International Civil Aviation Organization protocols will determine which country will lead the investigation. Because of the lengthy travel time from the United States, the NTSB has sent a team of investigators, accompanied by technical advisers from Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration, to the area so they will be positioned to offer U.S. assistance. The team departed from the U.S. tonight.


The country that leads the investigation will release all information about it."

[JanetFlight]

As far as it goes, as long as the days are passing by, i can only deduce one simple thing:

We have here a 1000 piece Big Puzzle...and we only have Twelve of them... :rolleyes:

[mickjoebill]

Tracking flight MH370: ACARS and transponder - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-19/tracking-flight-mh370-acars-and-transponder/5331124)

The head of aviation at the University of News South Wales, Professor Jason Middleton, helps explain just how these systems work and why there is no exact location for the plane.
A rough location can be extrapolated by measuring the time it takes for the ping to be picked up by two satellites.

"[Investigators] are actually using not the signal itself, but the time of reception at different receivers," Professor Middleton said.

"So if you sent out a ping of some sort and it arrives at two receivers and you're exactly halfway between, you can expect that ping will be received – milliseconds later – at the exact same time at both, because it's got the same distance to travel.

"On the other hand, if you're two-thirds closer to one than the other, then that one will receive the signal more quickly than the other."

Professor Middleton says you can use that satellite data to identify a rough line on the surface from where the signal most likely originated.



Any guesses where the second satellite is? The further apart the greater the doppler effect.

If two satellites are used it would be almost impossible to spoof a signal from a fixed point, an idea I raised earlier. You would need to send two pings a split second apart in a way where only one ping was received by each satellite.

For those that want to keep the dream alive that the aircraft has landed;
A drone could have shadowed the flight then turned off and mimicked the ping, but not many drones have speed and endurance to cover the route.

Pingers located on water and land that were activated in sequence.

911 conspirators still claim that ACARS was received after aircraft had crashed.

There was a fast moving ship at the southern search area in the middle of nowhere, a few days ago before the search area was announced..

On the net, so easy to cast doubt on the plausible eh?



Mickjoebill

[GTC58]

Flash8

It does not do anything to the AC bus. It is a software selection only which has no effect on the electrical busses.

[The Wawa Zone]

John Young AMSA briefing
John Young AMSA (Emergency response division) briefing was very interesting.
Acting on information from NTSB He explained that:

Quote:
"Regular messages from the aircraft, at approximately hourly intervals during its flight. Those transmission were detected by a communications satellite over the indian ocean and with the time of those communications and the distance, Then clarified "They can't plot exact distance but sequentially they can be build up into a route the aircraft took."
The wording here is crucial, it implies that all pings were received and from that, a 'join the dots' plot can be derived. This would be the first confirmation that all pings were received, not just the last one!
Unless the Australians are assuming this is what NTSB has done, this would indicate the aircraft has been plotted heading due south or of course due North as the arcs are mirrored!

No, there is really only one arc with a bite taken out of the middle to eliminate the area covered by the adjoining satellite which did not receive a '0011Z ping'.

When John Young says 'sequentially' he is probably indicating the use of earlier 'ping rings' in the calculations. I suggest that if so, these would be a series of running fixes from the last reliable co-location of radar fix and 'ping ring', using max and min ground speeds, which would branch out into some but not all of the final arc.

[GarageYears]

Any guesses where the second satellite is? The further apart the greater the doppler effect.

There is no second satellite. There is only one INMARSAT satellite that picked up the pings. They have used the response time delay to determine the distance only and that is relatively imprecise.

See this: TMF Associates MSS blog » 2014 » March (http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2014/03/)

It's extremely well written and right on the money in terms of details.

[The Wawa Zone]

A Q. for 777 avionics techs; could the ARINC data bus be damaged / destroyed in a way that prevented Transponder and ACARS transmissions, but in a way that still provided position information to align the SAT antennae and allow 'pings' ?

[Heli-phile]

Here, what part of my summary did you miss?

The wording here is crucial, it implies that all pings were received and from that, a 'join the dots' plot can be derived. This would be the first confirmation that all pings were received, not just the last one!
Unless the Australians are assuming this is what NTSB has done, this would indicate the aircraft has been plotted heading due south or of course due North as the arcs are mirrored!

[AndyJS]

New BBC video report, which includes one of the Australian search and rescue people talking about the hourly pings being used to help with possible locations. This means they do have information from all of the pings, but it isn't being made public, as suspected:

BBC News - New clues in search for Malaysia Airlines MH370 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26654975)

[DCrefugee]

So there saying there is more than six pings?

They're saying there's more than one ping and they have their records.

[mm43]

The head of aviation at the University of News South Wales, Professor Jason Middleton, helps explain just how these systems work and why there is no exact location for the plane.
A rough location can be extrapolated by measuring the time it takes for the ping to be picked up by two satellites.To the best of my knowledge the Inmarsat I-3 series satellite at nominal position 0° 64°E had logged the unique ID of this aircraft when the SATCOM was activated prior to departure Lumpur. The Satellite checked hourly that the bird was still in range by 'pinging' it. The return time of the signal originated by the SAT and acknowledged by the aircraft is the means of creating a position line (in this case a curved one) that is being used to determine the radius of a circle on which the aircraft could be. This whole procedure has been explained in many posts to this thread, and the Professor should at least get his facts right.

The basic explanation can be found on -page 297 Post #5935 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-297.html#post8386785)
and an example showing the possible 180°M heading is on - page 299 Post #5971 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-299.html#post8386973)

The BBC seems to be reading PPRuNE, and its a pity the professor hasn't.:ok:

Only ONE satellite is involved.

[LASJayhawk]

Wawa: been to NG737 school as an avionics tech. No direct hands on in a 777. In general most boxes have 2 different buss inputs. Not so say it couldn't happen, but sems way out there. And you would get error messages on the EICAS.

In retrospect, it the pings included basic lat/long info, just degrees and min. We wouldn't be so lost at this point. And the satcom needs it to point the Antenna anyway. 10 bytes once an hour...:(

[mseyfang]

Fascinating that the reported flight track appear to follow the FIR boundaries. Would be great to overlay the track on your FIR map. The U turn when a/c touched the Indonesian FIR could be consistent with evasion. This would make sense if pilot thought he might have a tail/intercept/monitored after his crossing of the peninsula. If there was a low altitude over the Peninsula and Straits it would also be consistent with radar evasion. I think we have to give evasion a high probability given the known/likely data points


Try www.skyvector.com (http://www.skyvector.com) -- it has global high altitude charts and a flight planning function that enables you to compute leg distances. Input WMKK-ZBAA into the base flight track, then drag the track line over the asserted waypoints. Bearings and leg distances will be computed and you'll be able to see how they match up with the FIR boundaries.

ETA: Let's see if this works. Link to map here: http://skyvector.com/?ll=5.6874142420386775,100.19677734758944&chart=304&zoom=7&plan=A.WM.WMKK:F.WM.MATSU:F.WM.GUNBO:F.WS.IKUKO:F.WS.UPRON:F .WS.IGARI:F.WM.VAMPI:F.WM.GIVAL:F.VO.IGREX

Tried to post an image, but the link works. Times are based on an assumed 462 knots i.e. M= .80.

[ReadMyACARS]

I have put together a map of the known bit of info
MAS370 (http://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v3/davidtriggs.b8370eov/page.html#6/5.802/101.096)
I have marked up the flight plan, the three named waypoints mentioned by various sources and confirmed by Malaysian authorities, the Inmasat angle ranges and the final 40° line.

I have added the known points of info we have, last radio transmission, last acars, last primary radar return, based on their timing and then joined the dots a bit from the last known point to waypoint GIVAL. Comments by the Malaysians say it tracked towards VAMPI, but not over VAMPI.

Based on the last known radar point 200 nm of Penang gives us a gound speed in the range of 420 knots. If I stretch the last known point to 250 nm of Penang it comes back at about 470 kts which I think is more reasonable. The last GS from Flightaware had it at 468 kts.

The possible flight paths are my own supposition, it had to get from the last known radar point at 0215 (local) to the 40° inmarsat intercept at 0811 (local) so the lines reflect approx positions based on a number of ground speeds.

[Sheep Guts]

Will they release the ping data today?

[lakedude]

The wording here is crucial, it implies that all pings were received and from that, a 'join the dots' plot can be derived
A "join the dots" plot is not possible from one satellite. There would be several full circles, one for each ping, no dots. Parts of each circle could be eliminated but an exact plot would be impossible from the ping data from only one satellite.

This is the unfortuate truth of the matter. If a second satellite was involved two connect the dots plots could be made, one to the north the other to the south in a mirror image.

If a third satellite was in line with the first two it wouldn't help anything but if it was off the line to the north or south it would pinpoint the exact location.

[INTEL101]

ReadMyACARS...that is very astute - assuming they took the southern arc.

:D

[femanvate]

Egypt Air ground accident via Airmike767
http://www.civilaviation.gov.eg/accident/Reports/B777_SU-GBP_cockpit_fire_accident%20final%20Report%20responding%20to %20boeing%20comments%2019-09-2012a.pdf
On July 29 2011 an Egyptair 777-200 Flight MS667 Reg SU-GBP was preparing for departure at Cairo Apt and had just finished boarding when the cockpit crew oxygen system malfunctioned and started an intense fire on the RHS of the cockpit.
Everybody evacuated safely through the still-connected passenger bridge through doors 1L and 2L, and the fire was brought under control by the airport fire dept but not after melting huge holes in the exterior acft skin and causing severe damage to the entire fwd section of the plane.
The accident report in the link above is a very sobering read if you imagine the incident happening 60 mins later as the 777 has departed and at altitude.
There would be no time to talk to the ground, and very little time for the crew to effect a descent before smoke/heat/depressurization took everybody out

[kristofera]

@intel101 ...or it could mean that there are unidentified radar echoes (from drone overflights and whatnot) frequently enough for them to ignore those that don't seem to pose a threat...

There is a Global Hawk base not far away, afterall.

[FE Hoppy]

@Readmy ACARS.

A lot neater than my google earth version which is not suitable for public viewing.
You might want to look at the due south assumption which appears to come from the NTSB. That along with the 08:11 range and assumed ground speed might confirm start points for the plot.

[mickjoebill]

It is apparent that the INMARSAT data is believed by the Australian, New Zealand and US maritime reconnaissance who are flying out into the middle of nowhere and also by the Chinese who are searching again in potentially reachable areas. I rather doubt that these new searches would be happening due to a PR statement.

More compelling reasons in my view are that OZ public prefer its government does something i.e. "have a go" to find its six Aussies and the rest of the passengers, rather than appear to wait for more conclusive information.

Also there was a Chinese registered vessel ALREADY in the area at the time the search was announced and the SAR could monitor it.


ABC noon news interviewed Aussie Jeff Askew ex Group General Manager Security and Emergency Management at Qantas for 15 years, and formerly with police and defence and Australian Airlines, he now runs a consultancy company, with a "top secret" clearance.

Summary;
He says they probably will find the plane, it may take time.
He couldn't answer questions about Pine Gap but says they wouldn't hold back info.

Last two weeks public have learnt it is more difficult to find a plane than previously thought, the capability is not there.
Says this incident will have ramifications to airlines and manufacturers. Will be driven by what is found to be facts.
Changes could be to airspace management and broad security of it including passports.
Live tracking of flights, passenger screening, change to looking for bad people not just bad things.
Airlines will need to manage threats from inside (pilots) and greater cargo security.

Industry has understood these issues, but were not at forefront of thinking.
Pilots should not be able to close down transponders, so fire issues will need to be addressed.

Says Malaysians Airlines did the best they could then other agencies took over.

[papershuffler]

Great map. Just had one query. Bearing in mind the Indonesian denial that MH370 crossed their airspace:

But according to the Wall Street Journal yesterday, Indonesia said its two radar stations in the Aceh province, nearest to where Malaysia lost sight of the Boeing 777-200ER carrying 239 people in the Straits of Malacca, found no indication of the aircraft.
“Malaysia said their radar detected [an object] near Pulau Perak, and then it disappeared.
“Had the plane entered Indonesian territory, the two radars must have detected it,” First Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto of the Indonesian air force told the WSJ.


Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro has asserted that the military radar placed in Sabang, Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam -- Indonesia's westernmost point -- did not detect missing flight MH370 or any other foreign aircraft crossing Indonesian airspace.“I have received a report about it. The air defense radar system in Sabang is very sophisticated and it did not detect any aircraft,” he said in Jakarta on Wednesday, as quoted by Antara news agency.
The minister said the military radar owned by the Defense Ministry was more sensitive than civilian radars so that there was no reason to doubt its accuracy.

MH370 not detected by Indonesian military radar: Defense minister | The Jakarta Post (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/03/19/mh370-not-detected-indonesian-military-radar-defense-minister.html)

Does that infer that more turns were made before hitting 'open water'? Or do you think that the current path is far enough away from Indonesian primary radar capabilities (whatever they are)?

[The Wawa Zone]

Heli, the 'mirror image' is only a result of the arc(s) being drawn about the equator. The arcs are actually part of a Position Circle with one segment already eliminated by non reception by the adjoining satellite, and actually a second one (through Africa) outside the max range of a great circle track from the last radar fix, also eliminated.
The 'dots' would be the running fix on each later segment or arc, out from the centre, but note there would be two on any hourly range circle centered around each prior fix, being the circle intersect points along the next arc. Note that later arcs can be inside earlier arcs if the thing had done 180's. The area would actually grow in tree branch fashion.
The test of validity would be a feasible set of points along the final arc. Its a DR nav solution.

lakedude; look up 'running fix', with a radar fix near an early ping as a strart point.

[ZAZ]

Jindalee is an OTHR using High Frequency transmissions determined by an FMS A frequency management system.
It has three main lobes.
But only one transmitter with a steerable beam at a secret location.

The time of the alleged transition of the Malaysian flight, it has been suggested occurred off the beam when the radar beam was looking North.


Debate will occur as to if any HF OTHR operating in the 17-24 MHZ band would have propagation at that time of day/night.


And why ask Jindalee why not ask the Russians and the UK one on Cyprus and all the other OTHRs operating at the time,


To find out if you had HF prop between central Australia and Malaysia...
You would need the sounder data from Xmas island, but it would be easy using IPS charts on the day to see the MUF on the NW path to see if the OTHR would have produced a paint, which would be just a dot and have to be correlated with other radar data from Malaysia to join the dots.
I think if the RAAF have data they have given it to their Orion pilots and it maybe the reason why the search area has been narrowed slightly.


I still ask the question (please don't shoot the messenger) if the aircraft was under pilot/hijacker control, how did the people involved control 200 passengers for 7 hours going into daylight over vast expanses of ocean.
When it would become obvious that they weren't going to China?


As in Boston a few passengers could easily overcome the person guarding them and the longer the standoff went on the more determined the people would become to find out what was going on and try something.




And so far no one on board appears to be a radical...bent of self destruction 3000km out in a remote ocean. what would be the point?

[Lazerdog]

Was VHF used in the Gulf of Thailand during the hand off or was it HF?

[AndyJS]

The blog post linked to by marlin was rather unimpressive IMO.

The writer of it ought to bear the following points in mind:

(a) The Indian radars covering the Andaman Islands may not have been on during the night because it was "too expensive" according to some reports recently.

(b) Also, there ought to be more coordination between different countries. You could have a situation where a plane hijacked by terrorists cleverly flies along the air borders between, for example, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia and none of those countries scrambles its fighter jets because they each think it's not in their territory, flying in the other direction, and "not a threat". The plane could then change direction at the last minute before an attack.

[oldoberon]

A "join the dots" plot is not possible from one satellite. There would be several full circles, one for each ping, no dots. Parts of each circle could be eliminated but an exact plot would be impossible from the ping data from only one satellite.

This is the unfortuate truth of the matter. If a second satellite was involved two connect the dots plots could be made, one to the north the other to the south in a mirror image.

If a third satellite was in line with the first two it wouldn't help anything but if it was off the line to the north or south it would pinpoint the exact location.

Think we all know that except the good prof.

However like many have said on here ian_W and I thjnk yourself and others there must be ways to extrapolate some date out of the missing ping data basesd on the spacing (range between them, estimated speed etc and if looks as if the experts have done it.

should have released it who knows perhaps ppruners would have come up with an answer earlier

[ReadMyACARS]

Thanks for the feed back, sorry it too 6000 message befoe I got there.

Apparently Jindalee wouldn't have picked it up,for one it might not have been on and another it apparently is used to concentrate on areas for periods of time.

Some years ago I heard the claim, not refuted, that no civilian had ever actually seen what Jindalle produces. So we really don't know.

The reason I took the aircraft out to BEDAX was so that the Indonesian radar wouldn't have seen it. Again, I have to make a presumtion that the radar at Lhokseumawe was not capable of primary returns or it didn't have the power. All the circles on the map are 60 nm, but, depending on power they shoud be capable of much further than that.

I'll have a look at the due south idea, because that was actually my first thought, the pilot took it to a certain waypoint and then headed south.

[Hunter58]

@marlin

Thank you. This is my suspicion since a long time. The malaysian air force did not scamble because it was an identified track. They had never lost it but marked as civil, friend or whatever is their denomination. Now I would love to see the track plot from their air command system published for the exact track the aircraft took.

The indonesian radar did not pick it up because it never went that far!

[INTEL101]

Aha...nothing like a poke in the eye with a sharp stick to provoke a response and when you filter out the understandably indignant adjectives at:

MH370: I Speak Out | The Crap In Between SeaDemon's Ears (http://seademon.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/mh370-i-speak-out/)

what is left reveals a fairly close correlation with the path proposed by "Read my ACARS" at:

MAS370 (http://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v3/davidtriggs.b8370eov/page.html#6/5.802/101.096)

Which is an excellent piece of deduction.

Am guessing that the new radar data likely came from the Andaman Islands base which is why the donor wishes to remain anonymous.

[HappyJack260]

Lakedude and oldoberon:
Quote:
Originally Posted by lakedude
A "join the dots" plot is not possible from one satellite. There would be several full circles, one for each ping, no dots. Parts of each circle could be eliminated but an exact plot would be impossible from the ping data from only one satellite.

This is the unfortuate truth of the matter. If a second satellite was involved two connect the dots plots could be made, one to the north the other to the south in a mirror image.

If a third satellite was in line with the first two it wouldn't help anything but if it was off the line to the north or south it would pinpoint the exact location.
Think we all know that except the good prof.

However like many have said on here ian_W and I thjnk yourself and others there must be ways to extrapolate some date out of the missing ping data basesd on the spacing (range between them, estimated speed etc and if looks as if the experts have done it.

should have released it who knows perhaps ppruners would have come up with an answer earlier

Actually it's a fairly simple relative velocity calculation, if you assume steady course and speed. Ranges from pings at hourly intervals give you velocity made good (VMG) over the hour towards the satellite's position; for a given speed there are only two possible courses which would generate that VMG - one (assuming closing on satellite's position) NW, one SW.

Repeat for whatever speed range you want to get, and for each speed you'll get a different pair of tracks. If you know the pings, it's a simple calculation which I'm sure would have been done within hours of the ping information reaching the authorities.

So they presumably have a good reason for not making it public.

[TristanPerth]

Live from question times in the parliament of Australia. PM Tony Abbott just informed the house that some debris have been found and might relate to MH370. They're dispachng assets to verify.

[nitpicker330]

Update---

Just watching Australian Parliament live and the Prime Minister just announced new information has come to hand from expert satellite photo analysis. They have spotted possible debris in the water and a P3 is expected oven that location at this time of writing 03:08 UTC

[ZAZ]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4d/JORS.svg/300px-JORS.svg.png
And like I said the other day it is being used to look for Asylum seeker boats at the moment not aircraft.




OTHR had a display at AVALON AIRSHOW with diagrams, the people said the only way to beat OTHR was to fly TANGENTIALLY, which correct me but according to the great map above the track was just about tangential to the transmitter site and at the limit of the somewhat low powered Harts Range NT.
At extreme range the backscatter returns would determine the resolution, and a plane makes a small fast target boats are slower, bigger and better and what OTHR was designed for..



REF below.........
This paper presents an overview of ship detection by high-frequency (HF) skywave backscatter over-the-horizon radar (OTHR). Ships have been detected at ranges of 2000 km or more by OTHR that uses sufficient resolution in the radar spatial and Doppler frequency domains. The HF sea-echo Doppler spectrum limits the target signal-to-clutter ratio (SCR), as a function of the ocean wave-height distribution, wind direction, radio frequency, and ship target radial velocity. Maximum sea-clutter spectrum purity, and hence larger SCR, is achieved with the use of stable single-mode ionospheric propagation. Real-time measurement and interpretation of ionospheric propagation features therefore must guide the choice of OTHR operating frequency. Experimental data recorded at the ONR/SR1 Wide Aperture Research Facility (WARF) bistatic OTHR in central California demonstrate reliable ship detection in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. WARF transmits 1-MW average effective radiated power, using a linear frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) waveform, and receives with a 2.55-km broadside array of vertical monopole element pairs. Swept bandwidths as high as 200 kHz have been used. Sufficient spectral resolution is achieved with a coherent integration time (CIT) of 12.8 s. Longer CIT, and autoregressive (AR) spectral analysis techniques such as Marple's algorithm, have been used to improve Doppler resolution.
Published in:

Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of (http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/RecentIssue.jsp?punumber=48) (Volume:11 , Issue: 2 (http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/tocresult.jsp?isnumber=25746)  )

[AndyJS]

"The indonesian radar did not pick it up because it never went that far!"

Wouldn't it have been difficult for the plane to have avoided Indonesian airspace if it flew in the southern direction?

[fg32]

I have found something so ridiculous it just has to be a stupid coincidence, but the logic is so good, I feel compelled to share it with you, even at risk of upsetting the mods.

Question…..If the best place to start looking on the southern arc is where the Aussies are now starting to search, where is the best place on the northern arc ?

Answer….In the symmetrical location in the northern hemisphere, i.e. just turn the Aussies South Latitudes into North Latitudes.

In planning their search, the Aussies will I suggest (unlike us and the press) have had full access to all the pings, at best accuracy, and will have done the best possible calculations to merge and reconcile them based on suitable assumptions ("joining the dots").

And here's the point: apart from some differences near the beginning, where uncertainty is big anyway, such calculations would likely be equally valid in either hemisphere.

So I looked.

Takliman Desert. Uyghurs.

I wish I hadn't found this…its too stupid for words.

It really looks as though - if the Aussies were in the Northern Hemisphere, they'd be searching the land of the very Ughyur terrorists who were the first and only group to have claimed this disappearance as their work. The claim was, it seems, laughed out of court.

You couldn't make it up, could you?
Please someone check and tell me I'm wrong. It makes no logical sense at all. It has to be either error or coincidence.

I see no possible reason to take MH370 there. :ugh:

PS…incidentally, the Aussie search area is bang on the 40 degree arc…they obviously believe in the Inmarsat data.

[tartare]

Abbott saying debris spotted.

[flyingfox]

Sounds as though Australian P3 Orions are tracking to debris. Australian Maritime Safety will be holding a press conference in just over an hour from now. @ 1530 AEDT.

[slats11]

There is no second satellite.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. If they do find something, I suspect there was another satellite.

[AndyJS]

If it hadn't been for those pings, this plane would probably never have been found, assuming this is it.

[TelcoAUS]

This just in from the ABC:


Malaysia Airlines MH370: Tony Abbott says possible debris found in Indian Ocean - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-20/abbott-says-possible-objects-found-mh370/5334314)

[TristanPerth]

Autralian Maritime Safety Authority to hold briefing about found debris at 3:30pm AEST.

[Mahatma Kote]

The Australian-led search for the missing Malaysian Airlines flight has had an apparent breakthrough, with satellite images showing two objects in waters off Perth.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott told Parliament on Thursday afternoon that an Australian P-3 Orion aircraft had been diverted to check out the objects and would be followed by other planes.
The first Orion was due to arrive on the scene about 2pm, he said.
Mr Abbott stressed it was not yet clear whether they were parts of the plane.
But Mr Abbott described the breakthrough as "new and credible information."
"The Australian maritime safety authority has received information based on satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search," Mr Abbott said.
"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified."
Mr Abbott said he had informed his Malaysian counterpart, Prime Minister Najib Razak, and promised to keep him updated.
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority, which is co-ordinating the search, has called a news conference for 3.30pm.
Missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370: PM Tony Abbott says satellite images could be wreckage of crashed plane (http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh370-pm-tony-abbott-says-satellite-images-could-be-wreckage-of-crashed-plane-20140320-354ij.html)

[Heli-phile]

John Young AMSA briefing
John Young AMSA (Emergency response division) briefing was very interesting.
Acting on information from NTSB He explained that:

Quote:
"Regular messages from the aircraft, at approximately hourly intervals during its flight. Those transmission were detected by a communications satellite over the indian ocean and with the time of those communications and the distance, Then clarified "They can't plot exact distance but sequentially they can be build up into a route the aircraft took."
The wording here is crucial, it implies that all pings were received and from that, a 'join the dots' plot can be derived. This would be the first confirmation that all pings were received, not just the last one!
Unless the Australians are assuming this is what NTSB has done, this would indicate the aircraft has been plotted heading due south or of course due North as the arcs are mirrored!

if as per my summary above could you do same plot for northern arc (mirrors southern arc of course)

[harrryw]

ABC News - ‎Thursday‎, ‎20‎ ‎March‎ ‎2014




Possible debris found in Indian Ocean, says Prime Minister Tony Abbott


http://www.abc.net.au/news/



Just on australian radio now

[Howard Hughes]

Evidence to date suggests the a/c was not lost by a simple Pan Am 103 bomb or other catastrophic airframe failure.
How do you reach that conclusion?

I suspect that if they are able to recover the FDR we will find a fairly benign situation that has gone horribly wrong. Prior to AF447 who would have thought a perfectly good aircraft would have descended from cruise level into the Ocean?

As for the CVR, I am expecting nothing but silence (as the loop has been overwritten).

Having read the entire 320 pages, I am looking forward to some definitive answers, if indeed they are able to recover the flight recorders.

[Neogen]

Am guessing that the new radar data likely came from the Andaman Islands base which is why the donor wishes to remain anonymous.


Very true, inside info from Naval command is that data was provided by India to Malaysia on 15th or 16th March, thereafter India stopped searching in Bay of Bengal. In fact they shared quite a lot of information that helped to narrow down the search area. However, India does want to be anonymous due to several reasons.

[ChrisJ800]

Oz press briefing is at 15:30 AEST (04:30z)

[500N]

I was just about to say the Australians could be relied upon to find the plane if it was in the area they were searching...

They kind of have to do it quite often (yatchs, people etc) plus we have the right gear and experience to do it.

Hopefully the Orion has spotted something, the aircraft will have been over it now for over 30 minutes.

[ReadMyACARS]

D.S. Map updated with new route, thanks very much for the suggestion. This also raises the GS to 426 kots.

I have added the Due South Theory, which as it turns out, if the aircraft tracks via 200 NW Penang at a GS of 426 kts and then via BEDAX and hits the Inmarsat intercept line at 0011 (0811 local) still at 426 knots it works very closely.

But I still think that IGARI - 200 NW PENANG @ 426 gs is a bit slow.

fg32 the Inmarsat intercept look pretty good given the inherant inaccuracy in how precise it can be. What we do know is that there was no signal at 0111, so we have at last got a boundary to work with.

[ReadMyACARS]

This might also help

MAS370 (http://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v3/davidtriggs.b8370eov/page.html#7/6.179/96.790)

[Capt Kremin]

This Australian announcement strikes me as significant as I cannot see why the Australian PM would be in a rush to get it out before confirmation via the P3C; there unless they were fairly certain it was wreckage.

[7x7]

The P3 is going to eyeball possible debris sighted by a high res satellite. I'd be guessing that some of the high res satellites available could read serial numbers on floating objects, so there's a very good chance that the P3 crew know exactly what to be looking for.

[500N]

I wouldn't say he was in a rush. More keeping everyone informed in a calm manner with (as someone said in another thread), no embellishment.

Otherwise you would get a media feeding frenzy between when AMSA announces it will hold a press conference and the actual press conference.

Take the "wind out of the sails" so to speak by letting everyone know at the same time ?

[500N]

"Provided the debris is reasonably proved to be from MH370, the world's press will be scrambling to charter planes to fly over that area for photos.

Given that these are "uncharted" waters, what chance is there of that? And who has permission-giving rights or will it be a melee?"


Well, if the Aust Gov't releases the photos, no need and removes any chance of a melee.

And what chance has a charter aircraft got of finding by eye sight a spec in the ocean ?

Yes, Australia could declare a no fly zone which they might need to do if you have multiple search aircraft flying around at various levels.

[nitpicker330]

I see the PM is being passed info during question time.

I wonder if he might say more on the search in a few minutes?

[SierraLimaFoxtrot]

Expect ABC24 will cover it

ABC News 24 live stream - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-05-03/abc-news-24-stream/167392)

edit: I believe it might be geoblocked. :(

[AndyJS]

I still can't think of many scenarios explaining how the plane might have ended up off the west coast of Australia.

[nitpicker330]

ABC NEWS24 ( Australian ) live stream will not work outside Australia in my experience of trying before.

I suggest that it will be covered by CNN international live

[500N]

I'd put the emphasis on the "middle of an ocean" that just happens to be "off the west coast of Australia by 2000+ kms" !

You could also say it was north of the Antarctic !

[Heli-phile]

AndyJS I still can't think of many scenarios explaining how the plane might have ended up off the west coast of Australia

In what way. The number of variables are manyfold, starting with heading select set to 190 degrees..and pressing HDG.

[jportzer]

I'd put the emphasis on the "middle of an ocean" that just happens to be "off the west coast of Australia by 2000+ kms" !Exactly, Australia is only involved simply because there is no one any closer!
Australia has one of the largest search and rescue regions of any country.

[Heli-phile]

Any Navy boys or girls have any idea on receivable range for submerged FDR's

[rigbyrigz]

True that the ABC24 and other Live AU TV news streams do not work now.
After checking a few alternatives, best so far seems to be LIVE from Austl parliament
(where PM made latest announcement)
showing now w/w on
Australia's Public Affairs Channel | A-PAC (http://www.a-pac.tv/)

[slats11]

Hoping they have found something. At least some closure for the relatives.

I suspect this is a real development. If so, protocol would be to let Malaysia know before public announcement. Any word on a press conference in KL?

If it has been found, I suspect help from various undisclosed sources. There is an obvious need to keep details and capabilities undisclosed. But there is also a need for governments to send a message that "you will not be able to get away with that" - in order to help protect people in the future. So there is a need to find a balance between these at times conflicting needs.

Boeing would have wanted this found for obvious reasons. And Boeing is a significant player for both government and defence.

[Opensoar]

Deep part of the ocean?

[500N]

" If so, protocol would be to let Malaysia know before public announcement. Any word on a press conference in KL?""


Our PM called the Malaysian PM before announcing in Parliament hat something was found.


"I suspect help from various undisclosed sources. There is an obvious need to keep details and capabilities undisclosed."

All the PM said was from Satellite imagery. I doubt much else will come out unless whose ever satellite it is says so.

Suggest wait until the AMSA news conference in 10 minutes, then speculate further if you wish.

[rigbyrigz]

RE: "I suspect this is a real development. If so, protocol would be to let Malaysia know before public announcement. Any word on a press conference in KL?"

Australian PM Abbott also stated he informed Malaysian PM about latest development.

UPD:
500N post was first, this confirms.
Austl PressConf (John Young, AMSA) started, regular CNN covering it
LOL for me, was watching Anderson Cooper CNN (11PM Live NY time)
when they broke in with this, meaning it was NOT live at 11.

[500N]

FYI, the two objects HAVE been identified by AMSA, just no one has said what they are.

[VH-XXX]

Objects found in Malaysia Airlines search (http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2014/03/20/14/13/objects-found-in-malaysia-airlines-search)

Two objects possibly related to the search for a missing Malaysia Airlines plane have been identified, Prime Minister Tony Abbott says

"The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has received information based on satellite information of objects possibly related to the search," he said before question time.

"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified."

The prime minister said an Australian airforce Orion had been diverted to locate the objects and is expected to arrive in the area shortly.

But he warned against drawing any premature conclusions or hopes on the search.

[fred_the_red]

Poseidon a/c on scene too, apparently.

[1a sound asleep]

LIVE FEED Video: Two objects identified in MH370 search (http://video.theaustralian.com.au/v/120541/Now-Streaming)

[VinnieC]

The actual ditching or crash location would be hundreds of miles away from the debris location.

[Opensoar]

How will they confirm anything with a fly past? Isn't it likely they'll need people in the water in which case it'll be a long time before we hear anything.

[kvraghavan]

Largest image assessed is "24 metres".

[500N]

Two satellites have been re tasked to take High Res photos.

They are throwing one hell of a lot of aircraft to this as well as a warship.

One aircraft over location, other aircraft arriving in a staggered timeline from 4.00pm, then about 6.00pm and 8.00pm.

Civvy ship being diverted.


Largest object is 24 metres. 2nd one smaller than that.
Plus other objects in water in the vicinity.

[slats11]

Largest object stated to be 24 metres in size.

Weather in area poor for aerial search.

[ChrisJ800]

Largest object assessed at 24m in size per AMSA briefing. The AP-3C Orions have sonar buoys that can be dropped to locate black boxes.

[spongenotbob]

Live feed KTLA

Two Objects Found in Search for Missing Malaysia Flight: Australian PM Reports | KTLA 5 (http://ktla.com/2014/03/19/objects-related-to-missing-malaysia-flight-may-have-been-found/#axzz2wTTgYjih)

[Airbubba]

The AP-3C Orions have sonar buoys that can be dropped to locate black boxes.

I got the idea from an earlier Ozmate news conference that the sonobuoys on the AP-3C, like the AF 447 submarine, couldn't pick up the ultrasound from the boxes.

[Opensoar]

Water there is several thousand meters deep and after drifting, wreckage on the surface is likely a long way from recorders. What's the range of those sonar detectors ?

[Perth_WA]

AMSA doing their level best to locate survivors?

[500N]

The poor weather is going to be a bugger. The staggered arrival of aircraft plus the C-130 that is going to drop buoys mean any gap in the weather will help.

The AMSA guy and Air Commodore is good at not answering questions if he doesn't know and saying they will get back to them when he has info :ok:

Playing a VERY straight bat with the media !

[Capt Kremin]

24 metres x ??. More info needed AMSA.

[Passagiata]

Telling near-over-reach by Air Commodore in response to question about credibility of sighting. Almost a statement that they wouldn't be allocating all those resources without very good reason- quickly gulped with a glance to the AMSA chief? Did anyone else notice? Did that mean the object is large enough that there is a tiny chance of survivors clinging to it?

[Teal]

Four hours flying time (for Orion aircraft) from RAAF Base Pearce (Western Australia) to the site. They can spend about two hours in the area before returning.

[Andu]

I don't know AMSA's John Young's background, but after all the bog ignorant instant aviation expert news anchors we've endured for the last two weeks, what a breath of fresh air to hear someone speak to the media as he is in the press conference.

[ChrisJ800]

HMAS Success also being diverted to the refined search area but could be days away.

[500N]

Yes, he almost over reached.

"24 metres x ??. More info needed AMSA. "

Capt K.

He is waiting for more confirmation and as he just said, he doesn't want to speculate until they have seen them.

The 24 metres is an assessment on the low res Satellite image, that is why they are trying to locate it, get it etc.

High res image and visual from Orions etc will be needed to identify.

They just said images will be released to the media as soon as it is available.


Andu
"I don't know AMSA's John Young's background, but after all the bog ignorant instant aviation expert news anchors we've endured for the last two weeks, what a breath of fresh air to hear someone speak to the media as he is in the press conference."

Agree 100% :ok:


What a breath of fresh air, play the media with a straight bat.

[rigbyrigz]

Re: "Telling near-over-reach by Air Commodore in response to question about credibility of sighting. Almost a statement that they wouldn't be allocating all those resources without very good reason- quickly gulped with a glance to the AMSA chief? Did anyone else notice? Did that mean the object is large enough that there is a tiny chance of survivors clinging to it?"

Briefing now over. No new briefing yet scheduled. Mr. Young did specifically say in response to a question about survivor family hopes: "our priority will be to look for survivors first"

-he also indicated other Australian searching would be redirected to this sighting.

[500N]

So, aircraft arrive 4, 6 and 8pm so hopefully the weather will clear or be reasonable enough to find and get a visual.

4 hours out, 4 hours back and 2 hours on station searching.

The crews are going to be buggered at the end of each day.


The weather is going to be the problem if it turns to pea soup !

[Opensoar]

24m is not 62' Anderson - more like 78'

[rampstriker]

A featureless abyssal plain sea bottom would make wreckage really stand out on sonar scans, no?

[KeyPilot]

I don't know AMSA's John Young's background, but after all the bog ignorant instant aviation expert news anchors we've endured for the last two weeks, what a breath of fresh air to hear someone speak to the media as he is in the press conference.

Well said. The difference in professionalism, openness and transparency between the Australians and the Malaysians couldn't be greater.

They are indeed throwing resources at this, however I can't help but feel it will turn out to be unrelated. 24m seems too big to me. Which part of a 777 with its longest side measuring 24m, will still float after a week-and-a-half at sea?

[wild goose]

There has been some speculation regarding a fire or an oxygen bottle explosion in the forward avionics bay.
Based on knowledge of what systems are there, if such an event had occurred, would it be possible for the crew NOT to receive a cabin altitude warning or indication, should a depressurization have occurred?
This could possibly lead to the crew becoming incapacitated, with them attempting to return to KL, becoming disoriented and then losing conscious.

[completely deck]

As reported, low visibility in search area in question:

http://i.imgur.com/e9YykxZl.jpg (http://imgur.com/e9YykxZ)

[Airbubba]

Telling near-over-reach by Air Commodore in response to question about credibility of sighting. Almost a statement that they wouldn't be allocating all those resources without very good reason- quickly gulped with a glance to the AMSA chief? Did anyone else notice? Did that mean the object is large enough that there is a tiny chance of survivors clinging to it?

I really does seem like a sudden reallocation of assets and a PM announcement would mean they are convinced it is a real lead. A lot of urgency for a couple of 'blobs' in the water.

[500N]

That looks quite a storm.


"I really does seem like a sudden reallocation of assets and a PM announcement would mean they are convinced it is a real lead. A lot of urgency for a couple of 'blobs' in the water."


Really ?

Get real. You have professional people looking at the images and making estimates.


As the AMSA guy said, we have been doing this for years so have some experience in it
and based on that decided to take the course of action they have.

It's a hell of a lot better than how the Malaysians conduct briefings etc !



"like a sudden reallocation of assets"

When you own them, you can do what you want with them. This is bread and butter work for the AMSA, RAAF
and probably the US. I doubt the US would jump on board and re task Poseidon without it being worthwhile.

[Bleve]

Which part of a 777 with its longest side measuring 24m, will still float after a week-and-a-half at sea?

The wings. If it flew to fuel starvation, then fuel tanks in the wings would now be air tanks and float.

[Tokyo Geoff]

https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/446508093091119104

Australian Broadcasting Corporation editor Jon Williams tweets: Crew on @USNavy P-8 spotter tell (ABC correspondent on board P-8) @WrightUps: "significant radar returns" coming from site where possible #MH370 objects spotted.

[lurker999]

500N John Young referred to the conditions as moderate.

what that means i have no idea. it's pretty wild and wooly out there.

[KeyPilot]

"The wings. If it flew to fuel starvation, then fuel tanks in the wings would now be air tanks and float."

It's highly unlikely that the wings would survive contact with the sea intact. Indeed, for either or both of them to be floating, they would have to have been sheared from the fuselage.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't see this being MH370 wreckage.

[RatherBeFlying]

Buoys will be dropped to facilitate relocating the objects.

If from MH370 several days of drift will have to be accounted for to determine a search area for the FDR.

[slats11]

24 m = 80 feet. Ok, just an estimate. But it is a big piece of something.

He also said it was "awash". If so, the drift will be largely based on current rather than current and wind. Will help a bit estimating backtrack.

2 hours overhead only. AC sequenced to maintain continuous coverage for the rest of today. They are doing best they can do with limited assets at long range.

He also said it was a bit south of search area. That Chinese ship was also to the south I believe.

[Capt Kremin]

P3's have significantly more endurance than 10 hours. My guess is that they need to allow for a possible 3 eng return to Pearce due lack of alternates.

[tartare]

Does the orstraylian version of the P3 have the ability to take FLIR pix or photos and then upload them back to base via satellite?
I assume that if they actually spotted something in the next 2 hours of bouncing around out there, they'd be able to get a shot and send it back?

[Perth_WA]

The AMSA web site has just been updated with more information including a media statement.

[/URL]

[url]http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/ (http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/)

[500N]

Re the Chinese ship.

Did you notice the way the media question re the Chinese ship was deflected ?????

Also
The Chinese ship was there way before anyone else ??????
What did they know that no one else did ?

I guess they had Satellites like the US has.

[Howard Hughes]

Does the orstraylian version of the P3 have the ability to take FLIR pix or photos and then upload them back to base via satellite?
Or Coast Watch DH-8's certainly do, I would be surprised if the P-3's didn't have the capability.

[tartare]

I suspect what's happened is that AGIO just downloaded a big dump of commercial and maybe some spysat IMINT, and set some sort of pattern recognition algorithm going on the data set.
It pops up lots of frames to examine.
That's when the experts pull them up on the huge monitors and start looking in detail.

[simsam]

If this is the missing airplane will Australia be responsible for doing the investigations?

[LFRT]

HANG SHENG 1 Current position (IMO N/A MMSI 413501228) - Vessel Finder (http://www.vesselfinder.com/?mmsi=413501228)

It's the same one we were following some days ago, the miraculous 50-knots sailing cargo ship.

Well, i guess everyone got its share of the fallen cake. And ours is utter rubbish

[NobodyIsHome]

Deployed US Navy P8-A search on site is 250-270knots @ 5,000
range of 1,200 miles with 4 hours on site.
From Perth


http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=79729

[Perth_WA]

Media Enquiries: 1300 624 633
20th March, 2014: 1530 (AEDT)
Search operation for Malaysian airlines aircraft: Update 6
Statement from AMSA Emergency Response Division General Manager John Young
* All times will be expressed in Australian Eastern Daylight Savings Time.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority is coordinating the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines aircraft, with assistance from the Australian Defence Force, the New Zealand Air Force and the United States Navy.
AMSA’s Rescue Coordination Centre Australia has received satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search for the missing aircraft, flight MH370.

RCC Australia received an expert assessment of commercial satellite imagery on Thursday.

The images were captured by satellite. They may not be related to the aircraft.

The assessment of these images was provided by the Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation as a possible indication of debris south of the search area that has been the focus of the search operation.
The imagery is in the vicinity of the search area defined and searched in the past two days.

Four aircraft have been reoriented to the area 2500 kilometres south-west of Perth as a result of this information.

A Royal Australian Air Force Orion aircraft arrived in the area about 1.50pm.

A further three aircraft have been tasked by RCC Australia to the area later today, including a Royal New Zealand Air Force Orion and United States Navy P8 Poseidon aircraft.

The Poseidon aircraft is expected to arrive at 3pm. The second RAAF Orion is expected to depart RAAF Base Pearce at 6pm.

The New Zealand Orion is due to depart at 8pm.

A RAAF C-130 Hercules aircraft has been tasked by RCC Australia to drop datum marker buoys.

These marker buoys assist RCC Australia by providing information about water movement to assist in drift modelling. They will provide an ongoing reference point if the task of relocating the objects becomes protracted.
A merchant ship that responded to a shipping broadcast issued by RCC Australia on Monday is expected to arrive in the area about 6pm.

Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Success is en route to the area but is some days away from this area. She is well equipped to recover any objects located and proven to be from MH370.

The focus for AMSA is to continue the search operation, with all available assets.

The assets are searching for anything signs of the missing aircraft.
Weather conditions are moderate in the Southern Indian Ocean where the search is taking place. Poor visibility has been reported.
AMSA continues to hold grave concerns for the passengers and crew on board.

E: [email protected]
Media materials are available in electronic form here:
AMSA :: Australian Maritime Safety Authority (http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/mh370-search.asp)

[imaynotbeperfect]

HMAS Success last seen on the AIS 17 hrs ago steaming at 17kts on a course of 243 degrees.

I guess that's limit range for the AUS West coast receiving station

Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions - AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/oldmmsi:503119000/zoom:10/olddate:lastknown)

[rampstriker]

The Chinese ship was there way before anyone else ??????
What did they know that no one else did ?

I guess they had Satellites like the US has.

The Inmarsat ping data had to have been shared with the Chinese "officially" so they could do the Northern search.

[Andu]

It's highly unlikely that the wings would survive contact with the sea intact. Indeed, for either or both of them to be floating, they would have to have been sheared from the fuselage.I'd have to disagree with the first part of that comment. (And not so much with the second.) The engine pods would quite possibly shear off, and in doing so, might possibly shear at least one wing off. (If there was any sort of swell running at the time of ditching, the most skilled pilot would be hard-pressed to stop one wing digging in to the water while the aircraft was still at a considerable speed - and (see below), there is film in existence to show that that can turn the alighting into a rather violent affair.)

However, most reading here will have seen the Ethiopian 767 ditching in the shallows off the Comorres. There's every likelihood that a wing has remained in one piece, and with its fuel tanks empty, (as they would almost certainly be if it the MAS 777's wing), it would float on or immediately under the surface for quite some time.

[Capt Kremin]

If the wreckage is found in the Australian FIR then they will lead the investigation.

[500N]

A good summary in point form of the news conference here
as well as the tasking of the Aust, US and NZ aircraft.


Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Debris found in search for MH370, says Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott (http://www.theage.com.au/national/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-debris-found-in-search-for-mh370-says-australian-prime-minister-tony-abbott-20140320-354xz.html)

[Yawn]

The professionalism of AMSA, 10 and 11 SQNs makes you feel good to be an Aussie.

A country of 23m people looking after over 10% of the Earth's surface.


https://www.operations.amsa.gov.au/Spatial/File/GetImage/375?lastModified=03%2F18%2F2014%2015%3A40%3A48

Oz and NZ P3s and US P-8....Fincastle 2014.

[500N]

Is it in Australias FIR ?

Anyone know ?

Looks like it but don't know where the line stops.

[Space Jet]

How big was Abby Sunderlands yacht?

I think she abandoned her yacht around there.

[Neogen]

What all countries have deployed their P3s and P8s?

That would really be a heck of coordination for Aussies..

[Capt Kremin]

How big was Abby Sunderlands yacht?

I think she abandoned her yacht around there.

In June 2010. Almost fours years ago.

[Mesoman]

What all countries have deployed their P3s and P8s?

That would really be a heck of coordination for Aussies.. I doubt it. Both aircraft types are US Navy types and the OZ and NZ crew probably trained at US Navy facilities (we trained them decades ago on older P-3's).

They are also all operating from the same airfield, so are probably attending joint briefings and being briefed by the same folks.

They are also native English speakers (well, OZ, well, sure :8) which helps.

I doubt they will have any trouble at all.

[500N]

What all countries have deployed their P3s and P8s?

That would really be a heck of coordination for Aussies.. "


Strongly disagree.

This is a piece of piss for the RAAF, they are after all a professional lot who do this often, as well as work with NZ and the US, the providers of the other aircraft. The fact they re tasked a C-130 that quick to fly out and drop buoys says a lot, they obviously had the finger on the button.

Australia is not Malaysia and Aus has done this heaps of times before, including in war zones for the last 10 years.

[mickjoebill]

Debris was described as awash and bobbing.
The Oz Orions have FLIR and visible spectrum nose camera.


Very little shipping activity in this part of the world for thousands of miles…
Apart from the Hang Seng 1
HANG SHENG 1 Current position (IMO N/A MMSI 413501228) - Vessel Finder (http://www.vesselfinder.com/?mmsi=413501228)

51 33 16.8 South 92 35 56.2 EAST
Note that the above info may be bogus as it does not appear in some databases

Perhaps this is the commercial vessel that will be on scene in a few hours?

Piece of piss for the RAAF, they are after all a professional lot who do this often,
Indeed and plenty of recent experience searching for illegal immigrants "boat people" to the North


Mickjoebill

[Neogen]

Cumulative search so far:

http://i.imgur.com/uuuP1BD.png

Day 3 seems to be precise than day 1 & 2.

[harrryw]

@Mesoman.
I believe they have given some of your navy submarines surprises in exercises too.
I notice nothing is said about the extensive sonar type stuff in the area from both Australia and US.
My bet is this would be more signifigent than OTHR.

[Foxxster]

Just an aside re the Orion that is on station now. Apparently it is full of media as they were being taken up to get some standard search and rescue footage. Just coincidence that the possible debris was found as they were on way.

[OXCART]

@EXEK1996

I've been following this cargo ship for the past 2 days and it's acting like a fishing vessel.

[Starter Crew]

Yawn

Oz and NZ P3s and US P-8....Fincastle 2014

As an ex-Nimrod techie on Fincastles, ouch.

[rh200]

Can anyone do a map like above with the Chinese ship, currents and search areas on it as well?

[Mesoman]

@Mesoman.
I believe they have given some of your navy submarines surprises in exercises too.
I notice nothing is said about the extensive sonar type stuff in the area from both Australia and US.
My bet is this would be more significant than OTHR.
I wouldn't know about the subs, personally. I did help train Aussies and Kiwis in P-3's. I notice that the P-3C endurance (10 hours) is quite a bit less than in the old days - perhaps all the fancy electronics are heavy, or whatever.

I don't know if there is much sonar in that area (presumably, you mean SOSUS or simillar). I doubt it's a very high priority area, and I don't think SOSUS is as important as in cold war days.

Of course, we can't know about sonar. For all we know, SOSUS-like systems heard the crash or ditching. But I doubt it.

[On eyre]

Anyone for overboard shipping containers ? They do lose them over the side occasionally.

[mickjoebill]

Would the Herc also have life rafts and provisions it could push out the back?

[Yawn]

Possible N/S FMS error.

Reflected to northern hemisphere.

Great Circle Mapper (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=35.59+n++88.02+e)

You must adjust map scale.

[500N]

itflewinitflewout

What's wrong with the language ? That's standard English in Australia.

And it's not "chest beating", if you (I see you are in Indonesia) don't like it,
well sorry, tough. We call a spade a spade here in Australia.

Just look at the shambles the Malaysian media conferences are / were versus what the AMSA one's were. And they seemed to have people and aircraft going in all directions, contradicting themselves over what they said previously, confusing to say the least. If they can't present a cool, calm media conference, I'd hate to see what behind the scenes is like.

[Howard Hughes]

MickJoeBIll and EXEK1996, the most credible posts I've seen on this subject yet!:D

'On scene' in a few hours? Looks like the ship has been 'on scene for a few days...

[500N]

"Would the Herc also have life rafts and provisions it could push out the back?
Mickjoebill"


If it is set up for it, yes.

Zodiac inflatable and Ribs can be pushed out the back on Sleds, with or without people following. You have the "experts" in the West for that type of thing so you never know, especially if they have a warship to pick them up afterwards.

[SQGRANGE]

Anyone for overboard shipping containers ? They do lose them over the side occasionally.
Yes they do but for the Australian PM to announce this I think the imagery must be fairly conclusive. For the families and friends of those missing I hope so.

[TRW Plus]

I was able to find weather maps going back a week in the region being searched. Conditions have been relatively benign, in 20-30 knot west to northwest winds most of the time. No info on the weather for 5-6 days before that. But in any case, the climate in that part of the southern ocean would normally produce air temperatures close to sea temperatures, in both cases around 10-15 C. It's not frigid at this time of year (assuming we're talking 45 S) but even as far north as Ile Amsterdam at 38 S which has weather records, March has average temperatures around 15-20 C daytime and 10-15 C nights. (keep in mind March in s.h. is like September in n.h. but when you compare Southern Indian Ocean to North Atlantic the latitude comparisons due to Antarctic circulation are something like 10 deg different, e.g., 40S = 50N, 45S = 55N. For northern readers, this ocean climate would be very similar to that encountered at the end of summer well off the coasts of Ireland or Scotland (or in the Gulf of Alaska).

[Starter Crew]

I think Yawn may be saying that if this was still not an act of madness, suicide or incapacitation then someone may have wanted to go north, but messed up and drove south...

[tartare]

...or was in the final stages of dying and messed up the turn.

[philipat]

Finding any debris will help the families find closure. My heart goes out to them.

However, even if we find the Black Boxes, the CVR will reveal nothing and the DFDR will tell us more precisely what we roughly already know?

That is a brilliant plan by someone(s) who did not want the facts ever to emerge?

[alex76]

Can you track the Hang Shengs route for the past 12 days?

If so - can someone post on here a map with the route it took to get down there.

Many thanks.

[TRF4EVR]

Heh so your theory is that someone took over the cockpit, entered the waypoint in to the FMS, then hung around for half a day or so watching the rest of the instruments they presumably couldn't read, then when the egg timer went off and they didn't see China, they said "damn, guess we'd better crash". That's inspired! I swear with the talent I've seen in this thread, someone should open "PPrune detective services", Seriously, we are sitting on a gold mine here, people!

[Jake the Peg]

Yawn's idea is interesting.

If one plots the original flight path all the way from IGARI to Beijing, but 180 inverted, does one not end up where the wreckage is?
I know this means violating Indonesian airspace, but one could then work in a 'simple' fire/comms/hypoxia scenario.

[Creampuff]

Question for P3 experts: Do they carry Sonabouys that can ‘listen’ for CVR/FDR pingers?

[FIRESYSOK]

If one plots the original flight path all the way from IGARI to Beijing, but 180 inverted, does one not end up where the wreckage is?
I know this means violating Indonesian airspace, but one could then work in a 'simple' fire/comms/hypoxia scenario.

The old FMS N-S reversal scenario?

[philipat]

Aceh is a highly sensitive area to the Indonesians. And most folks in the Region are aware of that. There is no way that this aircraft passed through Indonesian airspace in or around North Sumatera without being spotted.

[fg32]

Yawn said
Xinjiang Provence 40.7140° N, 85.6494° E
Search Area close to 40.7140° S, 85.6494° E

Indeed, but did you see my previous post where I suggested a different interpretation?
If this Aussie find turns out to be a red herring, thoughts might turn to the Northern Arc again.
I believe the last Malaysian press conference did say that both arcs were still equally in the picture?

We shall see .

[Bobman84]

Looks like it's closer to the French Southern (population of 140) & Antarctic Lands and Heard Island & McDonald Islands than Perth.

Max depth of Indian ocean some 8000 metres (26,000 feet).

[D.S.]

bud leon (http://www.pprune.org/members/304779-bud-leon) said,

I imagine people who criticise the Malaysian response have little experience in emergency management, which is typified by a lot of information but little intelligence (verified information) in the early stages. And this is a particularly difficult one cutting across many countries with a lot of noise, exacerbated by media. Much of the criticism has actually stemmed from misconceptions about what has and has not been said. Australia has come in much later, when information quantity and quality has greatly improved.for the record,

This is specifically what was reported in the news cycles on March 8th:
According to a press statement by Malaysia Airline Systems Bhd, Subang Air Traffic Control reported that it lost contact with Flight MH370 at 2.40 am on Saturday.March 9th:
"We are trying to make sense of this," the Malaysian air force chief (Daud) told a media conference. "The military radar indicated that the aircraft may have made a turn back and in some parts, this was corroborated by civilian radar."March 10th
Berita Harian quotes Air Force chief General Tan Sri Rodzali Daud as saying the plane was last detected by military radar in the vicinity of Pulau Perak, in the Straits of Malacca, at 2.40 a.m. on Saturday, hundreds of kilometres off course. An AP reporter was also standing right there, hears it, and supposedly verifies the statement with multiple (unnamed) Malaysian Officials

March 11th
"I wish to state that I did not make any such statements as above. What occurred was that the Berita Harian journalist asked me if such an incident occurred as detailed in their story. However, I did not give any answer to the question.

"Instead, what I said to the journalist was, 'Please refer to the statement which I made on 9 March 2014, during the press conference with the Chief of Defence Forces at the Sama-Sama Hotel, Kuala Lumpur International Airport'," the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) chief said in a statement late last night.
His March 9th press conference statement, of course, being that there was corroborated evidence it had turned back to the Straights

Yet despite all that, the official position remained “we [Malaysia] had no reason to suspect that the aircraft that we tracked flying across our peninsula was MH370” ...until day 8 of the search.

[Anti Skid On]

Creampuff, not sure about thous bouys you mention, but I am aware that the RNZAF Orion that is departing Perth at 4pm local time (probably about now??) recently had a major overhaul and was equipped with the latest surveillance systems including technology that enables it to scan under water. By the time they get to the site it will be dark, hence why I thin they are the last aircraft to be sent out.

[buttrick]

The 180 theory seems like a credible explanation as the so-called radar returns are most likely spurious (as I have always believed).

aLso lends credence to catastrophic fire scenario leaving the aircraft on a reciprocal heading to KL but crew incapacitated.

th ac could only have reached that far at cruise speeds /altitude (FL 300 &above)

[Edition12]

Radar Hits of 'Significant Size' Registered in Indian Ocean: Flight Crew - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/International/search-crews-objects-plane-search/story?id=22979627)

"A flight crew scouring the southern Indian Ocean for a missing Malaysia Airlines plane tells ABC News that they're getting radar hits of "significant size," indicating something lurking below the water's surface.

ABC News' David Wright, the only TV reporter on board the US Navy P-8 Poseidon, said the crew tells him the radar indicates "there is something down there."

It is still too early to tell if the radar hits are related to the missing plane, which was carrying 239 people when it disappeared on March 8."

Obviously, time frames involved means that what they were referring to would have been closed on by now; whether or not the vis is good enough for a FLIR or visual sighting is a different story

[Stoove]

"The radar hits indicate something may be beneath the ocean's surface".

Is it likely that in such rough seas the large parts of the wreckage would still be floating after so many days? I presume that SAR crews would quickly determine from their sensors if the floating object, a large part of which is reportedly below the surface, is made of ice or metal? Does anyone know if icebergs are commonly encountered in this particular search area?

[ChrisW67]

CreamPuff, the short answer is no.

The FDR/CVR acoustic beacons operate at 37.5kHz with a usable detection range of up to 3 nautical miles (higher freq => lower range). This is a result of the need for small size, reasonable power requirements, and good localisation ability. The short acoustic pinger range makes detection from near the surface in an approximate 12000 feet of water a big ask.

The anti-submarine sonobuoys are designed for the sorts of lowish frequency noises put out by machinery on/in subs and ships. These travel much further in water. (In a past life I was the engineer overseeing software development for the AP-3C acoustic processor systems (since replaced))

[Pom Pax]

Xinjiang Provence 40.7140° N, 85.6494° E
Search Area close to 40.7140° S, 85.6494° E

When you punch coordinates into the FMS is it N or S ? Or is it + or - ?
As a senile imbecile who was taught navigation nearly 60 years ago I find decimal degrees and + & - quite a challenge.

[mickk]

It is a very big ocean. What was seen could be anything from Tsunami debirs to discarded nets. The Australian PM announced it, does he have the mail or has he made a fool out of himself for PR purposes? time will tell.

The data and images would have been alalysed by now. The authorities would already know what the result is. Silence is not a positive indication IMHO unless someone is waiting for the make up lady to arrive.

[Edition12]

I hesitate to add to pure speculation; but assuming this large object is part of the aircraft, this would mean we're looking at an impact gentle enough to not send big bits to the bottom, less than 12G to not set the ELT off, but solid enough not let anyone on board switch on the ELT if inclined to do so, nor deploy slides/rafts and trail an EPIRB. Does that sound about right?

[Andu]

Any yachtie will tell you that there are literally hundreds of containers that have washed overboard from container ships and that are "lurking just below the surface". I find myself wishing that Tony Abbott had held off from announcing this development until a P3 crew had confirmed the objects were indeed from the MAS 777.

He hasn't, so now I find myself hoping that he got a "set in stone" guarantee from the satellite analysis experts that the debris is not just some junk that's got nothing to do with the 777. If this sighting turns out to be a fizzer, despite all his carefully guarded qualifications to his announcement, he will be made to suffer and to look a total fool by his always ready to criticise political opponents - lead (I hasten to add) by the National Broadcaster.

[fox niner]

Today is equinox. So if the search area is at about 90 degrees east, the sun will set at 1200Z is the search area.

The FMS of the 777 is capable of lat-long insertion as waypoints, so that LNAV can be directed towards a specific location on the globe.

For 41 degrees south and 85 degrees east, the format has to be: S41E085.

[A69]

Here's the satellite images released by Australian authorities.
bit.ly/1ds9Ij4

[pharmaboy]

FWIW, at the press conference when answering it is "just a blob" - he held his hand in a narrow fashion - ie elongated blob. Seemed to think better of whatever he was going to say , then said the blob comment.

Elongated blob would fulfill fuselage shape - though cannot imagine for a second that that would float, but perhaps he changed his description mid sentence because that's what it would sound like

[mm43]

Back in Post #5970 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-299.html#post8386973) I formed the opinion after looking at wind and magnetic variation, that the heading was set to 180°M when the aircraft was about 200NM west of Banda Aceh, Sumatra.

The winds between 10°S & 20°S were from the east, but from 30°S the westerly jet stream started to have and effect, and became the major factor by 40°S.

On top of that was a rapidly changing variation the further south the aircraft progressed, starting at 1°W near the equator and progressing to 30°W near 45°S. The track that was produced included most of that, and it was then that I decided that the heading had been set to 180°M off Aceh.

There had been no mention of 180°M until I posted the graphic.

[bud leon]

D.S You may choose to build a damning case against the Malaysians because of that possible singular contradiction but I'm not prepared to form an opinion simply by relying on media hearsay. I'd say you might be showing some confirmation bias.

There is no doubt they are not as polished as western spokespeople who not only are speaking in their own tongue but are also highly trained in media communication and issues management. They may even have made some mistakes, they are human like everyone else.

But taking the helicoptor view, ignoring the speculation of vain experts-for-rent and journalists tasked with selling advertising space in an information vacuum, what I see is an evolution of the search area as increasing amounts of information has become available and verified. There is no doubt lessons can be learned from this but casting the Malaysians as conspiratorial, face-saving incompetents is not only lazy and aggressive, it is one way not to learn lessons.

[Skyring66]

The Australian Prime Minister has been guarded in his comments. From the Sydney Morning Herald:

"The Australian maritime safety authority has received information based on satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search," Mr Abbott said.
"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified."
"I should tell the House - and we must keep this in mind - the task of locating these objects will be extremely difficult and it may turn out that they are not related to the search for flight MH370," Mr Abbott said.

Several objects - the largest 24m - have been located on satellite and aircraft despatched to see if they can find them and identify them. Abbott is making an announcement to satisfy intense media interest but is certainly not going to have egg on his face if they turn out to be something quite different.

I doubt, however, that such an announcement would have been made if the objects looked like shipping containers. Australia has been conducting maritime search and rescues in high southern latitudes for many years and have a good record. These people know what they are about, but obviously until someone has a close look at the objects, we won't know more.

Interesting that the objects were described as "awash" or under the surface. To be able to determine that from satellite imagery says a lot about the quality of the images.

[mickjoebill]

The Australian PM announced it, does he have the mail or has he made a fool out of himself for PR purposes? time will tell.


so now I find myself hoping that he got a "set in stone" guarantee from the satellite analysis experts that the debris is not just some junk that's got nothing to do with the 777. If this sighting turns out to be a fizzier, despite all his carefully guarded qualifications to his announcement, he will be made to suffer and to look a total fool by his always ready to criticise political opponents - lead

It wasn't the PMs decision to move all of the aerial assets to the new location and callout more aircraft including one that will be flying at night.
He has told the world why the planes have suddenly moved out of the original search area.

The potential target had been identified by the specialists who are familiar enough with analysing aerial images and the PM as well as the military and civilian commanders, during the press conference, repeated that it may not be wreckage.

They also said that the weather was poor and they may not be able to find it.

We have been warned that SAR in open ocean is very difficult.
Suggest Ppruners who do not have access to the content and context of the press conferences take note! If we want transparency and timely updates don't shoot the messenger!

In respect to US journos giving blow by blow from the jump seat of search planes, the US news media is very competitive and they will risk being wrong to be first and have no problem being dramatic at the expense of being dogmatic.

[500N]

"Interesting to see the photos are taken 16-March at 0416Zulu"


I got the impression at the media conference that they had had these images for a short while even though they didn't admit it and they had analysed and re analysed them before releasing them.

[mmurray]

Here. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-20/raaf-en-route-to-possible-debris-from-mh370-in-indian-ocean/5334314)

[Terry Dactil]

This may help in understanding the situation. :E
http://pickeringpost.com/kyola/resources/articles/back.png

[Anti Skid On]

They have better eyes than me then -it doesn't look like anything, even the white patterns at the side look similar.

[Razoray]

They have better eyes than me then -it doesn't look like anything, even the white patterns at the side look similar.

You need to bring a magnifying glass to the image. If you have an Apple computer the glass is built in. Distinct formations in the image suggest it is something other than a container or junk. Especially a cross section in the rear of the object....the tail?

[Wantion]

Having trouble seeing anything in those images ..other than its something...personally I would have kept it a low key finding until verified.

Hope they know more than us...and it is something tangible!

[Oldmate]

What is the approximate length of a B777 slideraft?

[slats11]

Three reasons I am hopeful this is real
1. They stressed there were multiple objects close by. That suggests they have not been in he water for that long. Over time objects will separate. There is not that much traffic in that part of the world. Wreckage from a tsunami will not still be floating in formation.
2. I continue to believe there was corroborating evidence that refined the Inmarsat data.
3. Aust PM has gone out on a limb. He has also put Malaysian PM under some pressure - if some theories are thrown into doubt, others become more likely. Not that this pressure on Malaysian PM was the purpose, but it is an inevitable consequence. So I believe he feels he is on strong ground.

[ChrisW67]

I participated in an AP-3C SAR mission for a sailor overboard in the Indian Ocean (two decades back, he was found). It strikes me that the chances of finding a 24 metre long object are reasonable if it is still floating, they have some idea of surface currents, and the weather holds. A lone bobbing head, lifejacket, or seat cushion not so much, but a debris field of the smaller items should be detectable.

I hope it really is a wing or tail and floating detritus rather than a shipping container.

[DespairingTraveller]

I think its a little odd that they are saying this debris is 24m long...its a bit precise isn't it? Why not say about 25m - can they really measure such an item by satellite to such a degree of accuracy?
Translation of a dimension originally marked up as 80 feet (by a US analyst, possibly) would do that.

We see lots of that sort of thing in the UK, where the metric and imperial systems are co-existing in an unhappy marriage and are frequently quoted side-by-side. It's by no means uncommon to see a measurement which is clearly a rounded number in one system being unthinkingly translated to some ludicrously precise value in the other... From humble recipe books on up.

[Perth_WA]

View the Satellite images here:

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_01_14.jpg

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_02_14.jpg

[pilotmike]

Putting an S instead of an N makes a difference?Yup! That's the beauty of how it works! Even putting a 4 instead of a 9 makes a difference too! So by using N E S W and 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 in various combinations you can go anywhere in the world!

It is a truly versatile system, just like writing in fact - you Ntupid, Nilly Sumpty!

[core_dump]

Noteworthy to me that we here have seen the satellite images but cnn and fox havent shown them yet

CNN did show them quite a while ago. The anchor said they didn't look like much to him. My guess is the indistinct images don't make good TV so they're not showing them over and over.

[Oldpilot55]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/5335064-3x2-700x467.jpg

If you have the focal length of the camera and the height of the aircraft then you have the (approximate) scale of the photo. Then you can calculate approximately the length of the object.

eg focal length 100mm flying height 1000 metres then scale is 0.1/1000. Or 1 to 10000.

You measure the length of the object on the photo say 2.4mm therefore actual length is 10000 times that or 24000 millimetres, 24 metres

As has been repeated many times already the longest shipping container is 40' or 12.2 metres or so.

[mickjoebill]

How will they confirm anything with a fly past?
They have stabilised camera on the nose with a powerful lens that can image visible spectrum and thermal images.
Aust PM has gone out on a limb. He has also put Malaysian PM under some pressure
Not how I read the PM question Time and following press conference with SAR.

In fact I'de say he can't lose, the satellite image specialists see a target and military and civil SAR guys make the decision to have a look.
Civil and military guys appear on tv to be articulate and open, they will take the media flack and return it with interest.

PM says good luck and Godspeed as I hope we all do.

It is a good example of an agency getting its message out quickly and clearly so it can be propagated and dominate social media and the web, rather than in the absence of good info, let social media and the web make stuff up which gets propagated ad nauseam.


mickjoebill

[costalpilot]

Anybody have an informed opinion on how long it might take an fbi expert to recover deleted files off a computer?

[bono]

Edition12
I hesitate to add to pure speculation; but assuming this large object is part of the aircraft, this would mean we're looking at an impact gentle enough to not send big bits to the bottom, less than 12G to not set the ELT off, but solid enough not let anyone on board switch on the ELT if inclined to do so, nor deploy slides/rafts and trail an EPIRB. Does that sound about right?Can aviation experts make an educated guess regarding the descent pattern followed by a fully loaded B777 as a result of fuel starvation. Does the typical nose up, one wing pointed down, corkscrew rotation hold in such cases. Might explain what kind of debris can be expected at the crash site. Where would be the center of gravity of a fully loaded B777 with empty fuel tanks? Any estimate of terminal velocity ?

[CowgirlInAlaska]

I positioned a B777 against the AMSA find... what do you think?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjJ32UFCcAA2REm.jpg

I'm surprised they held a PC so soon, but I wonder if the item was in fact already identified (logo visible?), they're just not admitting that yet, perhaps to "ease" the family into the news of their loved ones fates?

[ChrisW67]

OldPilot55. The height of the "aircraft" is 7057 kilometres if the image came from an IKONOS satellite and 681 km if taken by GeoEye-1. I suspect the latter. The size calibration is a given based on the equipment used. They are two images of the same spot at the close to the same time with different filters.

[KLN94]

The sea floor in the area where the debris was discovered is around 3000 metres and flat and featureless.

3000 metres is well with range of ROV's.

I have a marine chart image of the seabed from a screenshot. How do I post that?

[CowgirlInAlaska]

Things under water appear a little larger, so if they're stating the largest object is approximately 24 meters, how much of that should be 'shrunk' to result in actual size? IF I'm right as to my guess that it's the tail, would it be accurate that it's 20 meters actual length/height? I defer to you experts! :)

[Mesoman]

The photos are a stereo pair. If you have the focal length of the camera and the height of the aircraft then you have the (approximate) scale of the photo. Then you can calculate approximately the length of the object.No, the photos represent different ways of looking at spectral information. The one on the left is brightness from all wavelengths together (monochrome). The one on the right is false color, showing information about various wavelengths and combinations by the color in the image.

This sort of thing is common in remote sensing. Spectral information can tell you interesting things - it is color vision, except the "colors" are not the ones your eyes see.

That being said, I can't tell you what the colors mean. That's why they have specialists.

[Silver Shadow]

Object 2 (http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_02_14.jpg)

Note this is Object 2 -- different coordinates to Object 1

[Volume]

Anybody have an informed opinion on how long it might take an fbi expert to recover deleted files off a computer?To identify how many files were deleted and what they were is a matter of minutes. To understand its content can take forever. A file is not like a sheet of paper anybody can readily read. To understand what temporary files of certain programs do contain is a little more complicated. If you want to track back remainders of windows virtual memory file sectors to certain programms, you need to be a real nerd, but may find very conclusive content. There is a good chance that the programm with the highest memory demand recently running was the flight simulator, so there should be a lot of not yet overwritten pieces of virtual memory on that computers hard drive. Windows is not at all optimized for privacy and security...

[harrryw]

@PilotMike
On a 777 do you input the s43e80 by typing the letters or do use use an input box with s/n etc?

[Scissorlink]

Didn't the Air France and XL/Air New Zealand tails float as well ? How long would they float for ?

[Capt Kremin]

To the speculators...

Scenario:

Fire/damage sufficient to disable any chance of communicating with outside world.

*Aircraft made at least four changes to its track. Fire/damage did not destroy Satcom system. No communications indicating problem. Fire/damage of that magnitude unlikely to leave aircraft in condition to fly on.

Contra-indicated.

Rapid depressurisation disabled pilots.

* Aircraft made at least four changes to its track. Transponder and ACARS Intentionally disabled.

Contra-indicated

Slow decompression was not noticed by crew.

* Aircraft made at least four changes to its track. Transponder and ACARS intentionally disabled. EICAS system would have alerted crew to high cabin pressure well before incapacitation. Cabin oxy masks would have fallen in cabin at pre-determined altitude, Flight crew would have been alerted by cabin crew.

Contra-indicated.

Aircraft shadowed other aircraft to escape detection

* Aircraft, on a moonless night, would have had to track and intercept target aircraft visually as TCAS turned off with transponder. Dark night and heavy aircraft. Neither pilot seems to be formation rated. Flight at 35000 feet, and above as target aircraft climbs, leaves no performance margin for close station keeping. Air to air refuelling of large aircraft takes place around FL250 due to aforementioned performance limitations. Air defence radars would have picked up two large paints. Aircraft required to fly dangerously close to target aircraft for many hours.

Contra-indicated.

Aircraft had emergency and tracked towards Langkawi

* Not supported by Satcom ping data.

Contra-indicated

Aircraft went north over Asia

* No record of any unidentified aircraft on various countries Air defence radars. Extremely unlikely to find, intercept and hold position with another aircraft flying between FL350-390 for length of time required.

Contra-indicated

Aircraft hijacked by passengers

*Security procedure make this difficult but not impossible. High degree of technical knowledge required to fly revealed track and disable ACARS. No evidence of any terrorist links to anyone on passenger list. Aircraft disappearance not compatible with usual terrorism objectives. Passengers and crew would be unable to enter cockpit to restore control if locked out.

Contra-indicated but possible.

Interference by flight crew

*No revealed motive to do so.

Possible.

[Oldpilot55]

Agreed.
Yes, it was a mistake. They are different spectrums. I've corrected the post. The scale calculation is correct though.

[glenbrook]

I positioned a B777 against the AMSA find... what do you think?


The tail height is 18.5m not 20 meters and that is from the ground to tip of the VS. The actual height of the VS from fuselage is about 10m.
Your superimposed T7 pic looks about 2x too big. Whatever that object is, it can't be the tail (assuming 24m is accurate).

[fox niner]

Bono:

Suppose no one was alive on board, but it was happily cruising along at 29500 ft, heading south.

The autopilot would keep this going as long as possible. When fuel starvation sets in, one main tank will be empty before the other main tank. This is because one engine will always consume more, fuel flow wise, than the other.
The first engine flaming out will be corrected by the TAC. No problem. Also, a 777 at zero fuel weight (ZFW) will be able to maintain FL295 with one engine.

A few minutes later the other engine flames out. All generators will drop off, so no electric power is provided. However, the RAT will kick in, providing electrical power to, also, the autopilot. (Actually, only the transfer busses, but the Autopilot is on this)
The autopilot will try to maintain FL295, but is unable to do so due to lack of engine thrust. When top of yellow band is reached, the autopilot will slowly descend with this speed until impact. This is also what happened in london with the BA 777 on the ILS when it flamed out. The A/P flew the aircraft against the ground at heathrow with minimum speed.

All a bit rusty, I last flew the 777 three years back.

[nitpicker330]

I'd bet the transfer of power would drop the A/P off......the NBPT ain't that good.

The BA 777 suffered a "Thrust rollback",the engines were still running along with their IDG's powering the Aircraft.

[Toruk Macto]

Could it be part of fuselage ? Maybe half a fuselage with 2 or 3 rips ? What's the diameter of fuselage ?

[normanton]

The Aussies must think they are onto something....

More images of a 2nd object have been released on social media.

[bille1319]

The large one: part of a wing, life raft, shipping container; The small one: part of awing, a large canoe?
Given the maneuvres MH-370 was up to as she crossed Malaysia I would doubt she had the range to make to the Southern Ocean!

[buttrick]

I think you are forgetting that NONE of the radar returns after IGARI can be confirmed as mh370!!! Only that there MIGHT have been AN aircraft giving a return!!

[Tokyo Geoff]

https://twitter.com/cctvnews/status/446558464005783552

#US P-8 has arrived in Indian Ocean area; US 7th Fleet spokesperson confirms they have located the debris identified by #Australia. #MH370

Shouldn't be long now until we have some clarity on whether this is MH370.

[Hunter58]

There is plenty of ships/yachts that have been lost in the souther ocean. Since there is no land obstruction such wrecks have a tendency to circumnavigate the globe several times before going north, and the latter is an if.

24m is no size for a smaller vessel in parts and the second picture looks very much like a yacht.

I fear we will have some disapointment.

[itflewinitflewout]

Just as a general coincidence of course, I recall that the empennage of the Air France 330 off the Brazilian coast - was the first part of the aircraft to become apparent in the water. Just an observation, I claim not to know any 'hows'.

(The empennage is relatively light from my humble experience, with much space inside, having been up in and around Boeing tails for various reasons). Rgds

[parabellum]

"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified."


To me, "identified" means they know what they are looking at.


No fuel means the wreckage would have some considerable buoyancy perhaps, if the fuselage is intact then, sadly, the strapped in bodies may now also be providing some buoyancy.

[costalpilot]

According to fox and cnn reporters, the search area where this debris was found was defined by information from usa faa, ntsb n intelligence community. This relatively small search area was outlined on CNN maps displayed all day yesterday. That they have found this debris in this area which was highlighted by those agencies gives more expectation for positive ID than any other possible search area find, imo.

anybody know the size of the largest piece of af 447 that was recovered?

[ZAZ]

The low res sat pic looks like a submerged container.
The first P3 has just landed at Pearce WA, nothing on TV yet.
Experts on TV are mindful of what the pics are
They are saying IF the debris is from the plane it will take years to find the plane using unmanned drones..
watch and learn..

[OPENDOOR]

fox niner, I asked a similar question some days ago and was told that the AP would disengage when unable to maintain FL and a/c would enter a spiral dive.

What IAS is the top of the yellow arc and Vs clean?

[Rotor Work]

6571 wrote
Could it be part of fuselage ? Maybe half a fuselage with 2 or 3 rips ? What's the diameter of fuselage ?

Dimensions of the Boeing 777-200ER



Wing span: 60.9 metres
Overall length: 63.7 metres
Tail height: 18.5 metres
Fuselage diameter: 6.19 metres

[alanda]

Quote:
"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified." To me, "identified" means they know what they are looking at.

Agreed, but "identified" is nowadays frequently used to mean just "seen" or "noted". Always use a longer word; even if it's inaccurate it sounds more impressive.

[Lorimer]

http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-touching-letter-from-a-mas-pilot-s-daughter-1.518063?cache=03D163D03edding-pred-1.1176%2F%3FpFpentwage63Dp%3A%2Fhe3D03Dn63Frea-rti3D19.3D163D03edding-pred-1.1176%2F%3FpFpentwage63Dp%3A%2Fhe3D03Dn63Frea-rti3D19.111w5ii%2Fed-1.1

Anti-skid on,

Your link to the Malaysian pilot's daughter's letter about her father (another Malaysian captain) brings a sense of reality to the world of civil aviation and its domestic tolls.

Thousands of families of airline pilots (& cabin crew!) worldwide would wholeheartedly agree with this daughter's sentiments. It is a career requiring dedication and commitment with good rewards (usually), but often with a heavy price for the families, although fortunately, only very rarely a price as heavy as this one on the 8th March.

Lorimer

[costalpilot]

It took two years to find the wreckage of af 447 even though it was relatively close to the initial surface wreckage find and the last known position. Some Aussie "expert" just opined that this debris, if from mh370, "may have drifted hundreds of miles from where the wreckage is due to the drift factors."

[skytrax]

If it gets confirmed that those are parts of the 772 it's a good start. Also, if it is indeed a 24 m part of the fuselage still intact it means that it wasn't a violent impact with the water.
I wouldn't say it was an attempt of a planned ditching but that big chunch of fuselage wouldn't be in one piece after a full speed, uncontrollable impact with the water surface. However, Im just speculating, hopefully we will know more soon.

I believe Aussie are to be congratulated for their efforts. I saw on the news that they deployed some jet fighters to try and get a confirmation asap.

[DespairingTraveller]

@Toruk Macto


Trying not to make the story fit the facts.Making the story fit the facts is exactly what you're supposed to do! As opposed to:
Making up the facts to fit the story, or
Not caring one jot whether the story and the facts bear any resemblance to each other at all.
Unfortunately, both those approaches have been demonstrated ad nauseum on almost every page of this thread... ;)

[FE Hoppy]

Ocean current map here:
earth :: an animated map of global wind and weather (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-259.06,-38.58,560)

[mseyfang]

Quote:
"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified." To me, "identified" means they know what they are looking at.

Agreed, but "identified" is nowadays frequently used to mean just "seen" or "noted". Always use a longer word; even if it's inaccurate it sounds more impressive.


Beware the passive voice, a favorite of bureaucrats and lawyers.

Rephrase this into "Following specialist analysis of the satellite imagery, we have identified two objects possibly related to the search" and it takes on an apparently different meaning, while, in reality, they are saying the same thing.

Fingers crossed that this is something that will pan out. There was some data on ocean currents posted upthread that should narrow the search area for the orange boxes.

[slats11]

Yes drift will be a big issue. However the satellite images are from the 16th, which helps a bit. Also gives them 4 days of real drift (ie not simulation) to extrapolate from. So a big job, but not hopeless. Probably learned a lot from AF447 experience.

Can anyone confirm the separation of the 2 pieces? The closer together, the more hopeful I would be. Common to find 1 piece of stuff floating around. But in close proximity would be more suspicious of 1 recent source.

Pingers might be good for another 15-20 days. If they don't find by them it will become grim.