Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Livesinafield]

When are they going to install a camera in the cockpit and some in the cabin that will transmit live video to a central station so that we shall be able to know exactly what happened during a crash before recovering the voice and data recorders?
This should be easy to do these days?


It Isn't as simple as just installing it, the tech is there

privacy is an issue personally i wouldn't want a camera linked to a live feed to my ops watching my every move in the cockpit every time i was at work, also cabin cameras look at the privacy breach for 200+ passengers

and one more thing CVR's get leaked, i personally don't want to be on liveleak with 2 million people watching me die in a plane crash thank you


Can a radar trace depict an aircraft breaking up?


Primary surveillance radar can yes

[Mr Optimistic]

Successive primary returns can do. That plus trajectory reconstruction. A surveillance radar (military) could in principle have tracked on primary. Did one? Who knows.

[roving]

A day or so ago, someone posted that the sea beneath the flight path was some 50 metres in depth. That reminded me of something my late father told me when he was stationed at RAF KL in 1950's.

Once a week he would fly a STOL a/c from KL to the Shell oil company site in Borneo. He said the sea was so clear he could see shoals of sharks swimming beneath him.

It is surprising that if there are large sections of the aircraft in the area being searched, none have been found.

[HamishMcBush]

Can a radar trace depict an aircraft breaking up?
Depending on how fast the breakup and how many large pieces, pretty sure it can. Some sort of radar (IIRC) Picked up the space shuttle disintegrating some years ago, didn't it?

BBC (UK) reporting that:

BBC has confirmed that a man falsely using an Italian passport and a man falsely using an Austrian passport purchased tickets at the same time, and were both booked on the same onward flight from Beijing to Europe on Saturday
also that the USA's wonder tracking systems have not picked up any sign of an explosion in the atmosphere in the vicinity of the flightpath, ruling out a bomb/explosion.....

...and so the speculation goes on and on.....

[nitpicker330]

As an Airline Pilot regularly flying in and around that area it worries me that they can't seem to piece together what happened from Radar traces, ADS, CPDLC, etc or find the damn 777. It's not a Cessna 150 they are looking for.

[BlackIsle]

mickjoebill

Radar detection of break-up - it depends on the radar equipment. If the equipment is a mix of Primary and Secondary radar then yes it is quite likely that a break-up can be seen ( as with Lockerbie Panam ). On the otherhand, if it is Secondary only then once power on board is lost the transponder response is also lost and until that time, the only radar return would be from the transponder irrespective of whether the airframe was intact or not...

[Flaps_Five]

Can anybody shed light on MH training on recovering from unusual attitudes? Cockpit resource management?

Air France Asiana appear to point to these very issues that contribute to an accident. As we know things to get out of hand very quickly regardless of the cause.

[8d8]

Suggest people review China Airlines 611 accident. Taipei to Hong Kong about 10 years ago and TWA a bit earlier. Neither set of crew were able to make a mayday transmission. Both were under radar control.

[nitpicker330]

Yeah so? Both were catastrophic failures that rendered the crews disabled.
The Radars in Taiwan, China and Hong Kong that we're using "primary" skin paint returns would have seen the pieces large enough to reflect radar returns.

What's your point?

[mr.newfy]

the principle objector to flt deck video recorders are the aircrew themselves. and live streaming a non starter for the same reasons.
Pilots Blast NTSB on Cockpit Video Cameras (http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/technologyandresearch/a/cockpitcams.htm)
https://www.alpa.org/portals/alpa/pressroom/inthecockpit/CockpitVideo.htm

[MartinM]

An active radar could actually track down the aircraft path even with transponder OFF. The F/A18 Doppler radar can indeed see depict aircraft falling apart. I don't think a civil radar does. I wonder if the was no US Naval vessel sneaking around the area. For clarification, are both ATC, Malaysia and Vietnam only relying on Transponder?

[MartinM]

Suggest people review China Airlines 611 accident. Taipei to Hong Kong about 10 years ago and TWA a bit earlier. Neither set of crew were able to make a mayday transmission. Both were under radar control.


Absolutely right.

[threemiles]

The two tickets were issued by the Six Star Travel travel agency in Pattaya. It resides in the Central Festival building, the same as the Pattaya Hilton. Next to the Pattaya Police Station.

This does not mean the 2 suspects bought the ticket there, it is just the place of issue.

[paulftw]

Was wondering if the recent spate of toilet fires on the flight from OZ to Mideast were a testing ground for something else that didn't work then, but it did this time. Both Muslim carriers, good airlines, and was wondering if any false passports were on the Etihad flight as well?? I'm just thinking out aloud......

Don't expect much from Malaysian damage control in handling this terrible situation, lived there 28 years and know how well they handle these and other issues, hopeless !!!!!

[AtomKraft]

This is all very strange.


A bomb seems the most plausible explanation, but that would produce a massive debris field on the ocean.


As the debris fell, it would be a very strong return for primary radar, which seems to have been painting the a/c before the accident took place.


I'm sure there will be news soon.

[ddd]

Sorry, what I meant was that the video will be recorded (just like the VCR)...it will only be watched in case of an accident....but the recording will be at a location on earth.

[skyrangerpro]

Flightradar24.com
Here is a #MH370 situation update from Flightradar24 because of the many questions we get.

The ADS-B transponder of an aircraft is transmitting data twice per second. FR24 saves data every 10-60 second depending on altitude. On cruising altitude data is normally saved once per 60 seconds. By analyzing all our databases and logs we have managed to recover about 2 signals per minute for the last 10 minutes.

The last location tracked by Flightradar24 is
Time UTC: 17:21:03
Lat: 6.97
Lon: 103.63
Alt: 35000
Speed: 471 knots
Heading: 40

Between 17:19 and 17:20 the aircraft was changing heading from 25 to 40 degrees, which is probably completely according to flight plan as MH370 on both 4 March and 8 March did the same at the same position. Last 2 signals are both showing that the aircraft is heading in direction 40 degrees.

Today there are reports in media that MH370 may have turned around. FR24 have not tracked this. This could have happened if the aircraft suddenly lost altitude as FR24 coverage in that area is limited to about 30000 feet.

FR24 have not tracked any emergency squawk alerts for flight MH370 before we lost coverage of the aircraft. Playback for flight MH370 is available on Flights database - Flightradar24

Well that's useful clarification, thank you.

Is it fair to conclude from the above then, that if your coverage was still functioning, that the aircraft descended from FL350 to below FL300 sufficiently quickly (less than 30 seconds) that there was no time for a further reading to be taken.

The only other possible explanation is that the transponder stopped functioning. Or was switched off.

[MartinM]

A bomb seems the most plausible explanation, but that would produce a massive debris field on the ocean.

Yes, but small enough to make it hard to detect for visual searches. Large pieces could certainly be found quicker.

If the plane exploded in 35'000 ft then the mass of debris would spread in a very large area. And remember Af447. The pieces were found, if I recall right my memory, more than 100 miles off the position where they were thinking of what Af447 position must have been. The debris drifted with the current.

[BluSdUp]

Hi all .
If it was terrorists ,here is what they did:
Entered the flight-deck by force or for a visit by invitation of the crew at top of climb pluss a few minutes ,when coffe i provided .
Then incapasitated the crew and did 3 things that takes 2 seconds:
Firehandel 1 and 2 ,release and pull. Battery off.!

This will shut down any and all transmissions from the aircraft in less then 10 secunds.
Can any of you active 777 captains tell me I am wrong, but only if You know why,!?
I shure hope this did not happened , but it explains the so called total loss of contact.
If this is the case we are posible in for a new wave of terrorist cells that are hard to stop.

[1960sPAX]

As reported by many irritated professionals, this thread is unusual on this site for the sheer amount of amateur and extraneous speculation clogging it. However ; there's a reason for that. I've been lurking on this site for many years, only contributing to areas open to aviation enthusiasts, and never wanting to get in the way, and have watched carefully the reactions of professionals to many previous threads. The disproportionate non-expert response here seems to be precisely because of a spectacularly unusual lack of technical information for those with expertise to process in this timeframe.

[training wheels]

privacy is an issue personally i wouldn't want a camera linked to a live feed to my ops watching my every move in the cockpit every time i was at work, also cabin cameras look at the privacy breach for 200+ passengers



Agree with you there, but yet they have CCTV cameras in the terminals, on public buses and trains now. The public is becoming more accustomed to their presence and I dare say, in the near future, we'll see them in aircraft passenger cabins as well. Perhaps this be a deterrent to potential hijackers as well. I'm sure EK would have found cabin CCTVs helpful in their recent toilet fire fiasco.

[chefrp]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/10/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0

Read this article...two points

1) 2 people on an aircraft with stolen passports is rare (uncommon)
2) 5 ticketed passengers failed to board the flight and their luggage was removed (sounds like a lot of missed passengers) a diversion?

[nitpicker330]

Malay Military chief just said on News Asia that 20 fixed and rotary wing Aircraft as well as 40 Ships out looking now. From Malaysia and other countries.
Examining military Radar data now too.

[AlphaZuluRomeo]

Really, at this point we know almost nothing other than the aircraft has gone missing while cruising at 35,000' without a distress signal of any kind.

Everything else is speculation.
Agreed 90%.
For those looking for 10% left facts, three other things we know yet are:
- that stolen and/or faked passeports (number no less than 2, perhaps more) were used to board the aircraft; so far, this is unconclusive.
- that the aircraft was involved in a wing clipping in 2012, subsenquently repaired and returned to flight status; so far, this is unconclusive.
- that the "most online" figure of PPRuNe was raised yesterday, from its precedent record dated june 1, 2009 (i.e. 447).

[porter]

AlphaZulaRomeo your comment

- that the aircraft was involved in a wing clipping in 2012, subsenquently repaired and returned to flight status; so far, this is unconclusive.

Are you sure?


08:12 GMT - Broken wing tip - Malaysia Airlines says the plane that disappeared suffered a broken wing tip in 2012 but was fully repaired and cleared to fly.

"The aircraft had a clipped wing tip. A portion, possibly a metre (1.1 yard) of the wing tip, was torn," Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya told reporters.

"It was repaired by Boeing and cleared by Boeing and was approved by various authorities. It was safe to fly."

Source:
Malaysia Airlines investigation: Live Report (http://my.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-airlines-investigation-live-report-042933746.html)

[toung]

There are many automatic ELTs on 777 even121.5, 243,406mhz. Where are they?

[TWT]

Who's in charge of co-ordinating the search ?

Are the Vietnamese in charge ?There are Vietnamese and Malaysian assets out there now.Throw in a few Chinese vessels.Add a C-130 from Singapore and soon,a couple of P3C Orions from Oz.

Sounds a bit tricky.

[Trim Stab]

Who's in charge of co-ordinating the search ?

Singapore probably.

http://www.mpa.gov.sg/sites/images/pdf_capture/singapore-srr.jpg

[lilkim]

Singapore has also deployed their submarine to assist in search. :D

[nitpicker330]

Let me see.

Malaysian flagged carrier

Probably inside Malaysian Airspace

I'd say Malaysia would have the lead in the SAR op.

[airbus_driver319]

Meth,

As has been stated many times! They didn't need a visa if they were staying less than 72 hours....

[macroman]

Reports of sightings of debris off the Vietnamese coast starting to pop up on news feeds. Nothing confirmed at this stage though.

[snowfalcon2]

Sun has set and soon we should get reports from airborne search. The most recent I've seen, from a Thanh Nien reporter aboard Mi-171 helicopter no 02, was negative however. It took off after the AN-26s had returned to investigate at N072740 E1025848. This is in the vicinity of the oils slick spotted yesterday but further west.

However, flying at 500 metres (1500 ft) or lower, the crew judged the slick not to be oil.
The crew also observed several objects floating in the sea, which on closer observation were determined not to be from MH370.

I guess we will have some more of these false alarms, until the shipborne search starts in earnest as vessels arrive in the area. So far I have not seen any report of ships in action which would be capable of locating the CVR and FDR pinger.

[jbr76]

Chinese consular records should show what visas were issued, since a holder of either of the stolen passports would require a visa and we may assume that MAS ground staff would have checked that the visas were in order.

You DO NOT have to have a valid visa to enter China if you are a transit passenger with an on-going ticket to another country. You can stay in China for 72hrs.

The e-ticket photo supplied shows an on-going ticket to AMS, (KUL-PEK-AMS) which would match up the theory of whom-ever having no intention of setting foot in China at all.

Get your facts straight.

[Andy_S]

AF447 was found by now and that was in the middle of the South Atlantic.

Jeez there's some c*** being spouted on this thread.

No, AF447 hadn't been "found by now". Suspected debris was spotted about two days after it lost contact, but the first actual debris wasn't recovered until five days after the incident.

The location of AF447 on the ocean floor wasn't discovered until almost two years after the accident.

[luoto]

Interpol might disagree. Fairly global is 166 countries. Now, whether Malaysia checks it...

Stolen and Lost Travel Documents – holds information on more than 39 million travel documents reported lost or stolen by 166 countries. This database enables INTERPOL National Central Bureaus and other authorized law enforcement entities (such as immigration and border control officers) to ascertain the validity of a suspect travel document in seconds.
Databases / INTERPOL expertise / Internet / Home - INTERPOL (http://www.interpol.int/INTERPOL-expertise/Databases)

[lapp]

Chinese consular records should show what visas were issued, since a holder of either of the stolen passports would require a visa and we may assume that MAS ground staff would have checked that the visas were in order.


Do the effort of reading thread or inform yourself, passengers in transit requires no visa.

[snowfalcon2]

According to a Thanh Nien report, a "composite inner wall window piece" would have been spotted by a Vietnamese marine police seaplane (the DHC-6?) at N473208 E1032226. The seaplane had to return [presumably due to nightfall.]

The coordinate must be erroneous, but the description is the most fitting so far. Let's see if it holds. The news item said "the pilot could take pictures, but not clearly".

Disclamer, as usual: Based on Google translation.

EDIT: Dantri gives the coordinate as N083247, which puts the sighting 14NM to NE of the AN-26 sighting earlier today and 44NM / 82 km SSW of Tho Chu.

[Hotel Tango]

I would be of the opinion that the false passports belonged to people who paid their way to a "new life" in Europe, and that it is not connected to this accident.

[Anti Skid On]

According to this report (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/09/malaysia-airlines-missing-plane-investigation-widens-live) something 'yellow' has been spotted by Singaporean SAR and the Vietnamese were going to be on site in a boat by 12.20 GMT

(I realise this differs to what Snowfalcon 2 has posted - at least one of the reports must be correct)

What would be yellow? Life rafts, the green internal paint?

[parabellum]

On the Australian PBS channel tonight, in their World news bulletin, they said Singapore would coordinate the search.

[barrel_owl]

According to a Thanh Nien report, a "composite inner wall window piece" would have been spotted by a Vietnamese marine police seaplane (the DHC-6?) at N473208 E1032226. The seaplane had to return [presumably due to nightfall.]

The coordinate must be erroneous, but the description is the most fitting so far. Let's see if it holds. The news item said "the pilot could take pictures, but not clearly".
Interesting. Finally some hard facts or at least some serious clues.
Can you please provide a link to this information?

[Anti Skid On]

Spicejetter, please explain how it is a disgrace?

I think the SAR efforts are acceptable given the situation and the absolute lack of clues as to the whereabouts of the aircraft.

[Law FS]

There has been some good analysis, timely information and euradite comment on the forum.
Far more informative than the stale tripe being dished up by an ill informed, lazy and ignorant media.
If you can't sort out what is worthwhile from what is not, then complainers should move on. No disrespect intended.

[aterpster]

Seems like the coordinates would be approximately:

N 18 40, E 107 40

[toffeez]

The Vietnamese have said the yellow object found by the Singaporeans does not come from a 777.

[Capt Groper]

The BBC pics of possible oil skick looks more like red tidal algee. That frequents tropical waters due to warning oceans. Surely Boeing and Engine manufacturer would have recieved telemetry data?

[Global Warrior]

The only thing we know for sure is that the triple 7 is somewhere on planet earth, either in bits (more likely) or in one piece (very very unlikely)

Apparently no distress call was heard and it disappeared in next to no time.

So what would bring down a large airliner with such rapidity that no distress call was made? Here are some options..whether they are applicable to this accident... i have no idea!!!!!

1) Shot down. This may account for the silence, confusion and/or lack of willingness to divulge too much information.

2) Mid Air collision. This is possible if it happened to be with a UAV in this case as there have been no reports of any other missing aircraft.

3) Structural Failure leading to in flight breakup. Another possibility such as a cargo door opening in the cruise or the loss (detachment) of a control surface maybe. Rupturing of a pressure bulkhead might have the same consequence as seen before or a few other possibilities...stress cracks etc. An initial failure would cause the crew to deal with the failure first, to bring the aircraft under control, this then may result in a manoeuvre to get back home... and then the secondary effects or additional breakup renders the aircraft uncontrollable. This may explain a non communication scenario as in Aviate, Navigate, Communicate. Contrary to what non pilots may think... the first action of any pilot in a non normal event is to control the situation, not bang out a distress message, verbally or otherwise.

4) Flight Control Issue. Ive never flown a FBW aircraft so "put this out there" IF a control surface separated, what would the computers do? If the right aileron (high speed or low speed) detached, for example, during a left turn, how would the computers compensate?

5) Bomb on board. Again possible but difficult to do with the amount of security these days....but then how secure is this region?

6) Hi Jacking. Possible... especially if it was bungled and went wrong... such as a fight breaking out in the FD, AP tripped due to unintentional force applied on the stick... A/C goes off in its direction whilst the melee ensues and A/C hits the water. However the supposed communication with the aircraft might debunk this myth.

7) Crew incapacitation. This would only really be likely if another inexperienced or flightsim champion person tried to hand fly the aircraft instead.

8) Terrorist attack. In association with 6 above, Terrorist decides to commit suicide. Possible. He (she) gains access to FD, knock out Capt and F/O and push hard on the stick.

9) Crew Suicide. Possible but unlikely i would to suggest.

Im sure there are a few more potential failures that would have the same effect.

I think descending down to 500 feet and flying to some remote island to land is rather unlikely. I wouldn't want to do it during the day, let alone at night!!!

[KKN_]

Fore those suggesting CCTV cockpit live streams, how on Earth would you transmit all the data? With an update rate of several/second in a resolution that gives some useful idea of the inner workings, in any lighting condition?

Advance of technology is all well, but it seems that even for a rather simple set of parameters only some of the possible transmissions are paid for by the airlines.

[lapp]

Just a month ago, Interpol released:

INTERPOL’s Stolen and Lost Travel Documents (SLTD) database currently contains 40 million records from 167 countries. Though it was searched more than 800 million times in 2013, with the United Arab Emirates alone making one in every eight searches as the third largest user, Secretary General Noble said not enough countries are making use of this critical global policing tool.

“The bad news is that, despite being incredibly cost effective and deployable to virtually anywhere in the world, only a handful of countries are systematically using SLTD to screen travellers.

“The result is a major gap in our global security apparatus that is left vulnerable to exploitation by criminals and terrorists,” said Secretary General Noble.

[wce.kempy]

Seems like the coordinates would be approximately:

N 18 40, E 107 40

Isn't that off the north Vietnam coast? Doesn't seem right.

[deptrai]

Martin,

For clarification, are both ATC, Malaysia and Vietnam only relying on Transponder?

primary radar is used for approach control, eg at VVTS, but not built to cover entire oceans. There's certain physical limitations on radar range :)

[Capn Bloggs]

However, flying at 500 metres (1500 ft) or lower, the crew judged the slick not to be oil.
I would have thought that'd be obvious. Aviation Turbine fuel is clear, and an aircraft wouldn't carry anywhere near enough "oil" to make that slick.

The BBC pics of possible oil skick looks more like red tidal algee
or Coral Reef spawn...very similar colour.

[snowfalcon2]

Links to Dantri (http://dantri.com.vn/) and Thanh Nien (http://www.thanhnien.com.vn/pages/default.aspx)


Here's a map of the most interesting sightings so far. The red pins are from today.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/19786702/MH370/Spottings%2020140309B6.jpg

Keep in mind that as far as I'm aware, there is still no confirmation that any of this (except the last known position) would belong to MH370. Patience...

[Livesinafield]

N 18 40, E 107 40

Isn't that off the north Vietnam coast? Doesn't seem right.


Appears to be right in the middle of china....

[CodyBlade]

Malaysia DCA is leading the SAR.

Singapore only assisting with assets.

[barrel_owl]

About 20 top management employees from semiconductor company Freescale Semiconductor (with HQ in Austin, TX,) were among 38 Malaysians onboard MAS flight MH370.

Read full article here (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/semiconductor-firms-top-management-onboard-missing-mas-flight):

[MPN11]

primary radar is used for approach control, eg at VVTS, but not built to cover entire oceans.

Fag-packet max range for raw radar will be in the order of 200 nm for high-flying aircraft, usually quite a bit less.

[barrel_owl]

Thanks a lot for the infos and the screenshot.
Yes, no confirmed debris so far, only suspicious objects spotted.

[Stanley11]

Submarines to search? :rolleyes: sure, the sonar may yield something but it's got to be a WTF moment here! Even if they find something, surely they won't be surfacing and collecting the debris.
Sure hope it isn't an opportunity to go to where they normally don't get to go...

[CodyBlade]

No Submarines involved.

Learn to filter out the BS.

[nitpicker330]

Well according to a Singapore Airforce mate the Sing Navy operate Subs in that exact area and were probably in or near the area at the time. He said they would be useful in locating debris on the sea floor using their active Sonar, advanced local knowledge and would most likely join in the search.

Yes they are being used.

[andrasz]

Would there be someone lurking here who would have knowledge of Malaysian (and Vietnamese) primary radar coverage ? My understanding is that the typical maximum range of current civilian PSR is about 60 miles, question is where are the facilities located.

[JayG_Bull]

Would there be someone lurking here who would have knowledge of Malaysian (and Vietnamese) primary radar coverage ? My understanding is that the typical maximum range of current civilian PSR is about 60 miles, question is where are the facilities located.


http://aip.dca.gov.my/aip%20pdf/ENR/ENR%201/ENR%201.6/Enr1_6.pdf

A bit dated, but I don't think it'd change dramatically.

[snowfalcon2]

This is a picture from Dantri of the "window liner" object that was sighted just before nightfall today.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/19786702/MH370/0309%20debris%20Q1_-a001c.jpg

Interesting rainbow pattern on the sea as well, might indicate oil but hard to tell.

[Nozzer]

Another one.... Just released by India Today. Not sure it makes perfect sense, but...

Mystery around the 154 Chinese passengers on board the missing Malaysian airliner deepened today with a Chinese man, who was believed to be among those on the flight, saying he did not even board the jet, state media has reported.

The Chinese police said one of the persons listed did not board the ill-fated Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on Friday. The person, a resident of Fujian Province in east China, has no departure record and is still in Fujian, Chinese police said today.

The owner said the passport has never been lost or stolen.

[MFC_Fly]

Would there be someone lurking here who would have knowledge of Malaysian (and Vietnamese) primary radar coverage ? My understanding is that the typical maximum range of current civilian PSR is about 60 miles, question is where are the facilities located.
Why does it have to be civilian radar?

I can assure you that military early warning radars are designed to detect aircraft much further than the range you quoted and, unlike what some have said earlier, are very capable of utilising primary radar to determine the height of aircraft as well as bearing and range.

[fullforward]

It looks like the ELTs failed miserably on both this and the AF447.
Anybody with a more specific knowledge dare to comment?

[msjh]

As someone who does a lot more photography than flying these days, the colour of the sea (to me) looks more like low-light noise in the photo than anything else.

[Stanley11]

To Codyblade

No Submarines involved.

Learn to filter out the BS.

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Singapore sends 2 warships, naval helicopter to search for flight MH370 (http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-story/missing-mas-plane/story/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-singapore-sends-2-warships-naval-helicopter-mh370)

Learn to check for confirmation before you criticize. :rolleyes:

[Nightingale14]

Re; reports of Chinese man on false passport, this report in the Sunday Mirror today: " Questions are now being raised about a Chinese passenger who was on the flight. Chinese authorities say the passport number of missing passenger Zhao Qiwei - in fact, matches the passport of a man whose surname is Yu. He is said to be alive and well in the Fujian Province.According to Yu, he has never lost his passport, nor has he ever used it since it was issued in 2007."


Missing Malaysia Airlines flight live: Passengers who boarded plane with stolen passports 'bought tickets together' - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-live-3219331#ixzz2vTBOTs8L)
(http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=dndq0sFGyr34avadbi-bnq&u=DailyMirror)

[rh200]

It looks like the ELTs failed miserably on both this and the AF447.
Anybody with a more specific knowledge dare to comment?

If by ELT you mean the one putting out an electromagnetic signal, then they most likely haven't failed. Electromagnetic waves don't go so well under water, thats why they have a pinger.

[Mr Optimistic]

Military radar range for something that big would be something like to the radar horizon with a 10 degree mask. 160nm plus I would hazard.

[henra]

This is a picture from Dantri of the "window liner" object that was sighted just before nightfall today.



Although I'm not so sure about the oil colurs, I have the distinct feeling: We are getting closer. That looks indeed suspiciously like a window liner of an airliner. You don't see that floating in the water on your regular Sunday.

Edit: If the CNN message is true we are indeed back to zero.
/Edit

That said it is a fairly light part and wind will play a significant role in where and how far it will drift. Might be quite some miles away from the crash site itself.

[Aireps]

At 18:30 local time, Dantri (http://dantri.com.vn/xa-hoi/phat-hien-vat-the-la-nghi-la-manh-vo-cua-may-bay-mat-tich-847437.htm) reports the debris at this position:

SkyVector Chart (http://skyvector.com/?ll=8.79222,103.37389&chart=304&zoom=5) (center crosshair)

[LiamNCL]

hasnt the debris been denied to have came from a 777 already ?

[Coagie]

I hope the vessels "listening" for the ping from the black boxes, realize it's at 40khz, so is out of the range of human hearing. It will need to be down converted in order to hear it. As silly as it sounds, the French nuclear sub that went around listening for the ping from AF447, literally listened for it, through their headphones, without alteration, so it's no wonder they never heard it. It needs to be seen on a spectrum analyzer or down converted to human hearing range, unless, of course, you have a dog on board to listen for it.

[luoto]

interpol just confirmed no one could be bothered to check its database. N2014-038 / 2014 / News / News and media / Internet / Home - INTERPOL (http://www.interpol.int/News-and-media/News/2014/N2014-038)

[FFHKG]

Agree with several contributions (including a couple whose postings have disappeared). A lot of questions remain unanswered by both the airline and the authorites in Malaysia elsewhere.

Nobody seems to have addressed the question of how did those with the stolen passports enter Malayasia – if in transit at KUL from Thailand, how come that Thai exit immigration did not pick up on the stolen passports? Thailand issues entry visas, which should have expired in both the stolen passports. If they were already in Malaysia, where are their photos and fingerprints that Malaysian Immigration take for all arrivals?

Could it be corruption, incompetence or something more sinister?

I also find it more than a little puzzling that Malaysian ATC did not tell the airline that its plane was missing much sooner, and why MH’s own systems did not alert them sooner. Why, if it now appears, there are radar indications that the flight turned around has it taken 36 hours for this info to come to light?

Also, I am surprised that there seems to have been little mention of the FAA Airworthiness Directive for Boeing 777’s issued as recently as Wednesday 5th March 2014 which refers to “cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin, which could lead to rapid decompression and loss of structural integrity of the airplane.”
(http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgad.nsf/0/d91639a24674ca8f86257c920050edf7/$FILE/2014-05-03.pdf).

One lesson that surely needs to be learned from this event is that immigration and airline security systems world-wide need to be linked to the Interpol database for missing passports and those travelling with such documents detained. Had that been the case in this instance, closer attention might now being paid to the question of the structural integrity of the Boeing 777 aircraft in this instance.

[Silver Shadow]

@Yankee Whisky --- that Vietnamese report first came up way back at post #54 --- and was later discredited/retracted. So it is stale (not) news.

[TylerMonkey]

If it is only 720 kms from KL to the coast of Vietnam why do they say the plane was airborne for 2 hours ? I'm guessing time zone change to Vietnam adds one hour ?

edit: Flight MH370 departed from Kuala Lumpur International Airport at 00:41 on Saturday (16:41 GMT Friday), and was due to arrive in Beijing at 06:30. Air traffic controllers lost contact at 01:30.

Looks like 49 mins in flight total.

[fly123456]

If the 2 'unknown' passengers were ticketed all the way to AMS, it makes more sense as to why they were holding stolen passports.

A LOT of people are trying to illegally migrate to EU.

And a lot fail only when reaching their final destination, where checks are better carried out.

[EGLD]

privacy is an issue personally i wouldn't want a camera linked to a live feed to my ops watching my every move in the cockpit every time i was at work, also cabin cameras look at the privacy breach for 200+ passengers

I'll try to be polite, because I have the upmost respect for those in your profession, but your privacy concerns should not be influencing the decision to have live video being recorded and sent back to HQ in the case of the safety of an airliner, likewise the passengers have no right to privacy in such an environment, I would argue (much like any privately owned space that's actually a public space e.g. pub, train, bus)

frankly, it would clearly be beneficial to have this data being recorded and transmitted for the safety of millions of travellers every year, and if you or your passengers object to being recorded on the basis of personal privacy being put ahead of safety, one would suggest you find another job/airline

no-one is suggesting these videos be monitored all day long for discrepancies in how you work, they can be deleted at the conclusion of an uneventful flight

would it be more or less intrusive than the x-ray body scans passengers already have to endure??

anyway, one can only imagine the horror of the families of the people aboard this 777

I was struck by how the first shots we saw in the UK were of people who had just seconds earlier been told of the news, and had a scrum of reporters and cameramen sticking cameras in their faces and shoving them around

showing the absolute worst side of human rubber necking behaviour during a horrifying experience for those involved

one other thing while I'm on a roll :rolleyes:

worse than the conspira-loons on threads like this, are the forum police trying to shut down speculation and others posting in a way they are not happy with. you aren't moderators, let the mods decide what's appropriate and what isn't

like this post no doubt :ooh:

[deptrai]

There's specialzed hydrophones to locate the pingers. www.phnx-international.com/specs/TPL-25_SpecSheet.pdf

If they're not already in the area - with all the assets already available - I sure they're on their way. As for the talk about a singaporean submarine joining the search, I think some media misreported the Submarine Rescue Vessel, which is a surface vessel equipped for underwater search and rescue, as a "submarine". It will be far more useful than a submarine.

Edit: Cody Blade - exactly :)

[goeasy]

For those critical or curious about ELT performance.... Any radio transmitter needs an external aerial to propagate the signal. Here lies the problem in ELT design.... How to have an aerial attached that won't break off or disconnect in a serious collision or explosion. And none are designed to work under water, as far as I know.

Most modern airliners have one or two installed, that are triggered by a collision, or switched on manually. Each slide/raft also has one in the case of ditching.

[aterpster]

Mr. Opti:

Military radar range for something that big would be something like to the radar horizon with a 10 degree mask. 160nm plus I would hazard.

I can only speak for US ATC en route radar, which are the same as USAF radar. They paint out to 200 n.m. Would an airplane at FL 350 be over the horizon at 200 miles?

[luoto]

But which ELT is used in Boeing 777s? This isn't my area but reading about them is interesting and it seems one can still elect to use a cheaper model that is up to 97% prone for false alarms.

Different types of ELTs are currently in use. There are approximately 170,000 of the older generation 121.5 MHz ELTs in service. Unfortunately, these have proven to be highly ineffective. They have a 97% false alarm rate, activate properly in only 12% of crashes, and provide no identification data. In order to fix this problem 406 MHz ELTs were developed to work specifically with the Cospas-Sarsat system. These ELTs dramatically reduce the false alert impact on SAR resources, have a higher accident survivability success rate, and decrease the time required to reach accident victims by an average of 6 hours.

Presently, most aircraft operators are mandated to carry an ELT and have the option to choose between either a 121.5 MHz ELT or a 406 MHz ELT. The Federal Aviation Administration has studied the issue of mandating carriage of 406 MHz ELTs. The study indicates that 134 extra lives and millions of dollars in SAR resources could be saved per year. The only problem is that 406 MHz ELTs currently cost about $1,500 and 121.5 MHz ELTs cost around $500. It's easy to see one reason for the cost differential when you look at the numbers. However, no one can argue the importance of 406 MHz ELTs and the significant advantages they hold.
NOAA - Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking - Emergency Beacons (http://www.sarsat.noaa.gov/emerbcns.html)

Some explanation about beacon searching:
Anatomy of a 406 MHz Rescue using an EPIRB ELT or Personal Locator Beacon | ACR ARTEX (http://www.acrartex.com/landing/rescue/)
http://www.cap-es.net/NESA%20MAS/Aircrew%20Chapter%2010%20-%20Electronic%20Search.ppt

Interesting also:

Artex B406 Boeing Emergency Locator Transmitter | ACR ARTEX (http://www.acrartex.com/products/catalog/elts-commercialmilitary/b406-4/)

[Tray Surfer]

goeasy,

Most modern airliners have one or two installed, that are triggered by a collision, or switched on manually. Each slide/raft also has one in the case of ditching.

I fly on the 747, 777, 767 and 787, of which none have an ELT per slide/raft in case of ditching. It is part of the equipment removal to be performed by the cabin crew, to remove the one, or two, portable ELT devices and re-locate them to the slide/raft in the case of a survived and evacuated ditching.

[David75]

>interpol just confirmed no one could be bothered to check its database.

Actually stunned in this day and age there isn't electronic communication back to the issuing organisation to confirm and validate the passport. Particularly for a flight where you've got an hour or so from check in to departure.


Interpol might be helpful but the issuing organisation is the best source of information. Could probably also pick up differences in photos in the passport quickly as well.

[MFC_Fly]

Mr. Opti:



I can only speak for US ATC en route radar, which are the same as USAF radar. They paint out to 200 n.m. Would an airplane at FL 350 be over the horizon at 200 miles?

No

The rule of thumb we used was radar horizon = 1.23 x (sq rt of the height) [for sea level to aircraft height]

[CodyBlade]

It's not a 'Submarine' as in captain Nimo's.

But a 'SUBMARINE SUPPORT' ship.

Ps get your chart out and check the avrg depth there.

[arcniz]

A totally speculative but possibly plausible scenario one can see, based on facts and comment cited in world press and here (from reading every current pprune thread item to this point), is that some unknown circumstance might have very rapidly put the aircraft into an high-g deep flutter mode, possibly with multiple other instabilities and spin, such that the flight crew were physically unable to move enough or to see well enough to respond with corrective control inputs.

In such situation, the instrumentation, flight and airframe sensors and perhaps also the antennas might similarly have been impaired or overloaded by vibration and rotation of the airframe to such extent that data values were beyond allowable limits or range and thus filtered or overridden in some cases.

A relatively high rotation but relatively flat spin ensuing might also have confused any remaining data-link capability to the extent of sync-loss and absolute blocking of resync signalling needed to maintain the links data transfer capability, even while the aircraft was still flying and operating in an impaired but largely intact condition.

End result of this scenario is descent to the sea at moderate velocities with or without final breakup occurring at and after first contact with the sea surface -- leaving little or no floating debris and practically none shed while airborne.

(Foregoing is all guesswork, but based on some personal knowledge and experience with all of the above. Is my attempt to add a different perspective to some of the confusing "facts" that are on the table now.)

[Global Warrior]

EGLD

I'll try to be polite, because I have the upmost respect for those in your profession, but your privacy concerns should not be influencing the decision to have live video being recorded and sent back to HQ in the case of the safety of an airliner, likewise the passengers have no right to privacy in such an environment, I would argue (much like any privately owned space that's actually a public space e.g. pub, train, bus)

I don't think you need to be apologetic for asking. It is a sensitive issue and you have every right to comment on it.

I think that 1 issue with this is the amount of data that would have to be transmitted and stored. I think at anyone time there are around 10,000 airliners in the sky... Thats a lot of data. It may be that there are bandwidth and storage limits... Don't know, I'm not a techie.

The other aspect to this, though is the mis use of the information, by your employer. Its already happened with the voice recorder. You only need to go on to YouTube to hear recordings which probably shouldn't be in the public domain...but that has been released by the police or whatever. I understand the desirability of having this information available... but i personally don't want big brother looking over my shoulder every second I'm at work.

But putting this in perspective of this incident/accident... its likely all you might see would be a picture followed by nothing if the power was lost or there was a catastrophic break up. And the problem i personally have... and i can't speak for anyone else... is that incidents such as this one drive the necessity to get this technology in the FD to then "spy" on the people doing their jobs, which is then abused by employers and regulators pursuing their own agenda.

Its a delicate issue.

[luoto]

I wonder if any mechanics on the 777 know? This has a line drawing of the antenna positions Introduction to Antenna Placement and Installation - Thereza Macnamara - Google Books (http://books.google.fi/books?id=HgGJtUcyYagC&pg=PA99&lpg=PA99&dq=elt+installation+boeing+777+antenna&source=bl&ots=4AL-FOW2kh&sig=qth4atcOVBP0ZkZDBKqx75EU0VQ&hl=en&sa=X&ei=UG8cU62xBIKutAaoyIDoBg&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=elt%20installation%20boeing%20777%20antenna&f=false) fig 3.7. And a pic of a typical elt http://www.emteq.com/cmsdocuments/EMTEQ_406_MHZ_Automatic_Fixed_ELT.pdf

[SloppyJoe]

frankly, it would clearly be beneficial to have this data being recorded and transmitted for the safety of millions of travellers every year, and if you or your passengers object to being recorded on the basis of personal privacy being put ahead of safety, one would suggest you find another job/airline

On the contrary it is such a huge news story with so many people interested because it happens so rarely in comparison with the number of people who travel by air. Why are you not pushing for mandatory cameras to be installed in private cars? Far more die on the roads than in the air and it would be a great way to isolate major reasons for car crashes. Why not have mandatory cameras on everyone that record in a 60min loop, could be a law that requires spectacles with inbuilt cameras? Then whenever something happens it can be instantly decided what the reason was.

When was the last time a commercial aircraft crashed and the reason for it remained unknown? I honestly don't know. Wanting these cameras is a sign of who you are, you want instant answers, hungry to know the reason something happened even though it is in no way connected to you and will probably not affect you in any way. In time I am sure we will all know why this aircraft disappeared just as we have with many other incidents that remained a mystery for some time. Relax, it will all be clear soon and we can stop with the ridiculous knee jerk reactions like suggesting live feeds should be everywhere.

[slip and turn]

For those critical or curious about ELT performance.... Any radio transmitter needs an external aerial to propagate the signal. Here lies the problem in ELT design.... How to have an aerial attached that won't break off or disconnect in a serious collision or explosion. And none are designed to work under water, as far as I know.Funny you should mention it - there is more data being released today on BBC News in the UK on the location of Lydia the Great White Shark tagged 19,000 miles and one year ago in Florida and currently mid-Atlantic than there is on this 777.

[snowfalcon2]

I delved a little into this in order to get some feeling for possible wind and current drifts. I found the closest stations to be Kuala Terengganu (WMKN) in Malaysia and Phu Quoc (VVPQ) in Vietnam, on both sides of the Gulf of Thailand.

During the last two days, WMKN metars show weak southerly winds with NE in the afternoons, presumably a coastal seabreeze, less than 10 knots. VVPQ reported slightly more breeze at E-SE between 3 and 12 knots.

It is of course possible that winds in the middle of the gulf, where MH370 vanished, are different, but my guesstimate for the area is for light to medium winds from the E-S sector. Which would have kept any debris from an in-flight breakup in a reasonable area, and pushed any debris and oil on the surface in the direction W-N.

Perhaps someone can dig out some upper level wind charts from the area for the last two days. This might help in guesstimating the debris spread from any in-flight breakup at cruise level.

[jcjeant]

No speculations there
As for the AF447 the locating beacons (ELT) failed miserably in their mission
This is ridiculous to not have some in external location instead in the aircraft
There are also aboard ships and they are not located in the bilge !
It is now hoped that the CVR and FDR pingers will work

[Hornbill88]

<<Nobody seems to have addressed the question of how did those with the stolen passports enter Malayasia – if in transit at KUL from Thailand, how come that Thai exit immigration did not pick up on the stolen passports? Thailand issues entry visas, which should have expired in both the stolen passports. If they were already in Malaysia, where are their photos and fingerprints that Malaysian Immigration take for all arrivals? >>

Perhaps they entered Malaysia using different, valid passports.

[physicus]

I suspect there are many more reasons to travel on a stolen passport than terrorism. Especially if your destination is in Europe: What do the immigration people do with those that arrive on stolen passports? Can they return them? Where to? If the "refugees" don't cooperate, immigration will never know where they're from, thus can't ship them back. Apply for asylum and hope you can establish a foothold. That's how economic migration to Europe works these days as far as I know anyway, happy to stand corrected.

The fact that they were travelling to the same destination (if that's true) and that they bought sequential tickets on CSN, all that proves is that those two probably had something to do with each other. Perhaps they were both from the same family. It would be interesting to see some stats on how many illegals arrive at AMS every day.

[EGLD]

Why are you not pushing for mandatory cameras to be installed in private cars?

Because private cars aren't carrying 300 people? I know that buses in the UK have CCTV and no-one complains, especially not the "pilots"

"We" have decided that we need to know minute details of what is said on an airliner, so it's clearly beneficial. To have this data at least updated remotely as the flight takes place would clearly be of huge benefit, would it not? so why wouldn't video of the cockpit be of even more benefit?

I don't want to derail this thread, I probably should've sought out the no doubt other threads on this subject, but felt I wanted to comment on the privacy issue

The technicalities of whether it's possible are irrelevant if we can't get past the privacy issue

Thanks for the considered responses though, unlike the PM :rolleyes:

[Global Warrior]

It is of course possible that winds in the middle of the gulf, where MH370 vanished, are different, but my guesstimate for the area is for light to medium winds from the E-S sector. Which would have kept any debris from an in-flight breakup in a reasonable area, and pushed any debris and oil on the surface in the direction NW-N.

Perhaps someone can dig out some upper level wind charts from the area for the last two days. This might help in guesstimating the debris spread from any in-flight breakup at cruise level.

The last point of contact with the aircraft might not be the point of break up, if indeed that happened..... It may have travelled 90 degrees to the last known direction whilst/if the crew had time and attempted a recovery... That was part of the issue with AF447... It had turned 180 degrees from the original track by the time it hit the water, i understand

[luoto]

"Interpol might be helpful but the issuing organisation is the best source of information. Could probably also pick up differences in photos in the passport quickly as well."
I suspect this isn't the thread for deep discussions about that, but certainly with today's technology one could get a "fingerprint" of the original image, a comparable scan "fingerprint" and a scan of the person presenting the document with AI processing in the background. If one has advanced TX of bookings/manifest that is even easier. No doubt someone has calculated the cost of implementation/ongoing operation is more than the notional loss of airframe/lives. Plus if one has this everywhere, it is harder to infiltrate or exfiltrate assets one wants to slip in for whatever reason. A lot is "security theatre" or carefully restrained implementation.

[kwh]

For a more in-depth primer on radar horizon calculations in a variety of units, see Computing Radar Horizon (http://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/Radar/Radar_Horizon.htm)

The aircraft wouldn't have to lose very much height at that distance before it dropped below the radar horizon for a land based radar site at 200Nm out. Nevertheless, I'm confused - why can they not say 'it was travelling at [x] knots on vector [y] at rate of descent [z] before it vanished from our scopes'? That's what military radar installations are there for, surely?

[luoto]

"This is ridiculous to not have some in external location instead in the aircraft"

External ELT antennas exist. Can't speak for the implementation on the MAS777's. See p.8 http://www.honeywell.com/sites/servlet/com.merx.npoint.servlets.DocumentServlet?docid=D8D741ACD-7E84-6FB2-C0F5-F0579B51DCEA

[Coagie]

There's specialzed hydrophones to locate the pingers. http://www.phnx-international.com/sp..._SpecSheet.pdf (http://www.phnx-international.com/specs/TPL-25_SpecSheet.pdf)


Deptrai, I hope they're using the "specialized hydrophones" to locate the pinger. The French nuclear sub, looking for AF447 didn't! That's why they went back to review the sonar tapes of that sub. Don't know if the dynamic range of the tapes would have recorded 40khz anyway.

[MartinM]

The last point of contact with the aircraft might not be the point of break up, if indeed that happened..... It may have travelled 90 degrees to the last known direction whilst/if the crew had time and attempted a recovery... That was part of the issue with AF447... It had turned 180 degrees from the original track by the time it hit the water, i understand

Right. But AF447 was transmitting ACARS data to AF HQ all the time until it hit the ocean. The last 4 min from 38'000 down to ZERO were indeed documented by ACARS until it turned silent. Around 250+ messages were sent. But ACARS was considered false, even in this forum, by the time it hit the internet. No one believed that the information is true. ;)

MH370 does not seem to have sent any ACARS data. ACARS is self powered. Meaning that is like earlier poster mentioned, he would pull fire handles and switch battery off in less than 10sec, ACARS would still send coordinates and vital aircraft data.

This means that MH370 got either destroyed immediately, which on AF447 was not the case, or MH learned from AF447 incident and keeps the ACARS data for themselfs.

[etudiant]

Has it become the norm for military and civilian radars to capture and store the data at high resolution for playback?
Unless it is, it would be asking for a lot to have a military radar operator pay attention to an undistinguished blip at long range during the small hours of the morning.

[baron_beeza]

There was mention earlier about the various electrical systems on some of these aircraft. A simplified version of many of the airliner systems is available on the web.

B777 Electrical (http://www.smartcockpit.com/aircraft-ressources/B777-Electrical.html)

http://www.smartcockpit.com/aircraft-ressources/B777-Airplane_General_and_Emergency_Equipment.html


These are for study purposes and are generally 'dumbed down' versions of the schematics found in the engineering and crew training manuals.
They do give a good indication of the system layout you would expect to be seeing though.

[SloppyJoe]

Because private cars aren't carrying 300 people

But if you are after preventing deaths it would be far more productive in cars given the numbers of accidents and fatalities. There is no recording method in them so much remains a mystery.

A live video would not be of much benefit, what are you recording? The backs of two guys/girls, would the definition be good enough to see instrument indications? The only reason for this would be to know the plane has crashed, not why. We know the plane has crashed as it did not land. Sound recording is already there, not live but we will know soon enough and that is far more valuable than a video of a cockpit environment without much definition. The benefit would be far outweighed by the cost and misuse by companies.

Lets focus on something sensible when the findings are found. Spend the money on better identity checks, training, maintenance or whatever it is deemed caused this sad event rather than ludicrously expensive high definition multiple live feeds from every possible angle of an aircraft in flight. Its the knee jerk reactions that make everyones life harder, not safer. How am I safer not being able to take nail scissors onto an aircraft when I can purchase a large glass bottle full of flammable liquid to take on the flight with me? I could smash that bottle over someone, set them on fire and stab them. I am all for implementing better security and surveillance measures if they make sense but live camera feeds are not it.

[MartinM]

The aircraft wouldn't have to lose very much height at that distance before it dropped below the radar horizon for a land based radar site at 200Nm out. Nevertheless, I'm confused - why can they not say 'it was travelling at [x] knots on vector [y] at rate of descent [z] before it vanished from our scopes'? That's what military radar installations are there for, surely?

My AAA Radar consist of two systems a active search radar which goes in flat terrain in a 360 degrees view from zero to 25nm. So i have a capability to detect any moving subject within this dome of 25nm around my radar. I have coupled to this a tracking radar which allows me to track a specific subject up to 25nm. This is a very powerful radar. I can track down a bike driving inside the 25nm dome, if i like to.

Every radar has a dome it can scan. But i bet none of the search radar installations is directly sitting at the coast of MY or VN. So 200nm could be just not enough.

I personally would not see any reason why a level change would make the aircraft disappear from radar screen.

I don't think an AWACS or Sentry was in the airspace. I don't see any US carrier activity in that area. This could have been an advantage ;)

[3db]

Coagie,
The 40kHz is an electromagnetic wave. Humans (and dogs) can't hear electromagnetic waves directly. We (and dogs) hear sound pressure waves, which dogs can hear at 40kHz but us humans can't.
The electromagnet (radio) wave is made audible for us by electronics. That is why they listen for it with a radio receiver. 40kHz does travel through water, but not very well. However, it also depends on how sensitive your radio receiver is, as well as a host of other things.

[Global Warrior]

This means that MH370 got either destroyed immediately, which on AF447 was not the case, or MH learned from AF447 incident and keeps the ACARS data for themselfs.

So a conspiracy theory is brewing ;) If they had the data...Why would they not just send the search party to its last known position?

Maybe because it was shot down by the Americans and they have told the Malaysian Govt they have to come and cover up their actions?

We've had alien theories...why not this one :D

[frozenpilot]

The issue of cameras being installed is indeed a very sensitive one. I personally as a pilot do not support this. Firstly, Airline management could potentially abuse this information. When you are employed as a Pilot and achieve an Airside pass you are supposed to be scrutinised with background checks etc. Most Airlines still utilise locked door procedures, so we should be entrusted to carry out our duties with trust and our protocols prevent unauthorised access.

The more serious point is " big brother" I a, don't want someone to watch me picking my nose! B, as many other pilots will relate to, when we are under line check feel more pressurised. The last thing I want is when dealing with a serious problem the thought that the safety department/management will be viewing my actions after the event, and with hindsight. This could become a distraction and affect flight safety.

There could of course be an honest broker hat holds recordings and deletes within a defined period... But the CVR/FDR/ACAR's when located always paint the true picture.

[lapp]

<<Nobody seems to have addressed the question of how did those with the stolen passports enter Malayasia – if in transit at KUL from Thailand, how come that Thai exit immigration did not pick up on the stolen passports? Thailand issues entry visas, which should have expired in both the stolen passports. If they were already in Malaysia, where are their photos and fingerprints that Malaysian Immigration take for all arrivals? >>


So naive, stamps are easy to counterfeit. Where the photos are, in Malaysia even if they are not willing to say.

[MartinM]

If they had the data...Why would they not just send the search party to its last known position?

Didn't they do exactly this on AF447? Yes they did, but the debris was 100nm off that position due to the ocean current.

I wounder why no one till now has posted the ocean current depication by the time of the incident.

[onetrack]

The stolen passport and shadowy pax theorists seem to forget that if a hijacker (or hijackers) just wanted to down an aircraft and go down with it, they wouldn't be bothering to indulge in stolen passport shenanigans. They'd use their own passports because they wouldn't care about being identified. A stolen passport is used to evade proper ID, and the aim is to live in a foreign destination where they can't be picked up easily.

The aircraft is reported to have suddenly dropped around 700' from cruise, then altered direction some serious amount, somewhere in the range of 180 deg - then it totally disappeared - and not a shred of wreckage has been found after approximately 48 hrs.
Vietnam has 17 aircraft and 35 ships in the search, there are 8 other nations involved, with around another 40 aircraft and about 45 ships.

I'm beginning to think this is a suicidal hijack - the hijacker/s overpowered the crew, grabbed the controls and aimed the aircraft straight down vertically. It speared in vertical and buried itself in the sea bed, leaving very little surface wreckage, and badly damaging the FDR and pinger.
The FDR is designed to withstand an impact equating to approximately 310mph, but a vertical high-speed dive into relatively shallow water would cause serious damage to it.

After the recent stabbing attack in China, it would appear Muslim Uighurs would have enough reason to destroy an aircraft containing a large number of ethnic Chinese - and they would be able to do this more easily from a largely Muslim, multi-ethnic country - where the authorities would not be on high alert for Uighur terrorism, as the Chinese currently are.
The Uighurs have been linked to Al-Qaeda by the Chinese, and the Uighur stabbing attack is not the first terrorism attack on Chinese by Uighurs.

[Coagie]

"Coagie,
The 40kHz is an electromagnetic wave. Humans (and dogs) can't hear electromagnetic waves directly. We (and dogs) hear sound pressure waves, which dogs can hear at 40kHz but us humans can't.
The electromagnet (radio) wave is made audible for us by electronics. That is why they listen for it with a radio receiver. 40kHz does travel through water, but not very well. However, it also depends on how sensitive your radio receiver is, as well as a host of other things."


3db, You're dead wrong! It's a sound wave coming from the pinger. These "electromagnetic waves" you speak of, don't travel very well in water, so the pingers on the black boxes use sound waves, not radio ("electronmagnetic") waves. For instance, think of how far a whale can communicate with sound in the ocean. With a name like "3db" you should know better!!!

[Pinkman]

http://http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304732804579427991198487418?mod=bbc_europe&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702 304732804579427991198487418.html%3Fmod%3Dbbc_europe (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304732804579427991198487418?mod=bbc_europe&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702 304732804579427991198487418.html%3Fmod%3Dbbc_europe)

[airbus_driver319]

I don't think there are too many cellular towers in the middle of the ocean! :ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Bobman84]

Object suspected of belonging to missing plane found Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority says a navy plane has found parts suspected of belonging to the Malaysian Airlines plane, Reuters reports.

Parts of tail and door? Keen for further information.

[duffyp99]

Know next to nothing on this stuff (tho hugely interested) but plenty about Malayisan Work practices. Seems to me that lack of ACARS is a key part of the mystery, is it possible/conceivable that MH have not been collecting/monitoring it properly and/or have lost it ? If that were the case and ACARS data was being transmitted, just not received, it would change the whole picture wouldn't it ? Might also explain the concern about not getting the whole story at the press events.

[skytrax]

@Onetrack
Not necessarily. Because those involved mght have been on a watch list so that explains unsing fake travel documents.

[theredbarron]

Pure speculation here, but if the aircraft had broken up in-flight at its cruising altitude would not wreckage be spread over a very much larger area and consequently be more likely to be spotted quickly, compared to the concentrated wreckage field which would result if the aircraft had impacted the sea more-or-less intact?

[andrasz]

Nevertheless, I'm confused - why can they not say...

Because they don't know. The issue of radar coverage is rather complex:

Civilian ATC is used to monitor and control civilian airspace. It uses two types of radars - Primary Surveillance Radar (PSR) and Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR). The first is a physical 'echo' from any object within range (as already discussed, that is typically 60NM), the second is essentially a two-way radio communication between two computers using an interrogation - response protocol. Most of the world (except the deep ocean regions and some very remote land areas) are covered by SSR, but PSR is typically based at major airports to cover the surrounding airspace. The information from both sources are displayed on ATC radar screens, and in an area with dual coverage an aircraft with no transponder signal will show up as an unidentified blip on the screen. However in areas with only SSR, aircraft with no transponder signal will not show up.

When MH370 'disappeared from radar', the transponder signal was lost. But that does not immediately equate to anything happening with the aircraft, it just means that there is no transponder response. This is why Malaysian ATC tried for another hour to contact the aircraft, and only when it should have been visible to Vietnamese PSR did they raise the alarm that something was amiss.

Military radar in normal peacetime works the opposite way. Rather than controlling civilian airspace, it just monitors it, with a real-time data link to civilian ATC. On military monitors the known and identified targets are blanked out, so observers can focus on any unidentified targets. Thus military radar would not have monitored MH370, and if in the few seconds between loss of transponder signal and descent below observable height an unidentified blip would have appeared, that would have likely gone unnoticed. In all such cases it is a lengthy reconstruction process to retrieve the primary military radar data (which may first need to be 'weeded' to remove traces of any hush-hush activity), then match all targets with known and identified aircraft before anything may be said with any certainty.

I'm sure this is being done as we speculate in vain. In such cases the radar manufacturer may also be involved to attempt to amplify any possible weak signals that would have been filtered out as background noise by the processing software, but would still be recorded within the primary raw data. Naturally this takes time measurable in days or weeks, and is usually done as a part of an investigation process if no other sources are available to reconstruct the last moments of an aircraft.

[MartinM]

Pure speculation here, but if the aircraft had broken up in-flight at its cruising altitude would not wreckage be spread over a very much larger area and consequently be more likely to be spotted quickly, compared to the concentrated wreckage field which would result if the aircraft had impacted the sea more-or-less intact?

Yes, spread over larger - no, for spotted more quickly

If the debris is all together the visibility would by better from the air as it would be a large dark anomalie in water.

To find a single part, as large as a rubber boat, in an area as large as, flying at probably 7000 feet or higher, is almost impossible.

Apart from this, think on all the rubbish cargo ships tend to loose all over the place. This reminds me on a movie i was just watching, "all is lost" with Robert Redford. Unless you put a big light on, no one will find you.

[flyboy328]

These acoustic locator beacon is are not that powerful!

Detection range at 200ft water-deph is only around 3000 meters.

I am not a SAR Expert but i think these Locators are not intended to be received by airborn search-teams but rather by ships, divers or subs.

By law they need to be able to transmit for at least 30 days.....

[andrasz]

Pinkman, the WSJ article links to the same photo of the 'window panel' that we have already seen, could be any piece of unrelated floating debris (eg. some large piece of Styrofoam packaging). Until it is retrieved and confirmed as an aircraft part, it's no new information.

A positive search result would likely reveal a debris field rather than isolated pieces, the sea had been calm over the past 2 days.

Also by now looking for any oil slick would be rather futile. While thicker than petrol, aviation kerosene is still rather volatile, a thin surface film of it would have evaporated by now with 30C+ daytime air temperatures.

[FREDAcheck]

Primary Surveillance Radar (PSR) ... is a physical 'echo' from any object within range (as already discussed, that is typically 60NM)

@andrasz

What limits primary radar to a range of "typically 60NM"? I mean, the distance to the horizon at FL350 is over 200NM, so is the range typically limited by sensitivity, or noise and clutter at low angles of elevation?

[Wirbelsturm]

Aircraft can drop passive sonobouys which will detect the locator beacon.


The P3 carries about 100 of them in rotary dispensers. They can be set for depth and 2, 4 and 8 hour endurance but, in this scenario where you are looking for a short range transmission, you would set them for the shortest life so as not to block up the transmission channels to the aircraft.


Also temperature, salinity and thermal profile of the water will greatly decrease or increase the distance at which an acoustic beacon can be detected, you just need to search both above and below the isothermal layer.


Hope that helps.

[skadi]

I am not a SAR Expert but i think these Locators are not intended to be received by airborn search-teams

Anti-Sub aircrafts are able to deploy so called sonarbuoys to collect accustic signals...

[MartinM]

Military radar in normal peacetime works the opposite way. Rather than controlling civilian airspace, it just monitors it, with a real-time data link to civilian ATC. On military monitors the known and identified targets are blanked out, so observers can focus on any unidentified targets. Thus military radar would not have monitored MH370, and if in the few seconds between loss of transponder signal and descent below observable height an unidentified blip would have appeared, that would have likely gone unnoticed. In all such cases it is a lengthy reconstruction process to retrieve the primary military radar data (which may first need to be 'weeded' to remove traces of any hush-hush activity), then match all targets with known and identified aircraft before anything may be said with any certainty.

I would not bet on this. One of the learnings of September 11, was for USAF to join the tactical and civil radar systems into one. Until Sept 11, US civil and military radar system were separated!

Swiss civil and military (tactical) radar is merged too. Civil or military ATC can initiate a scramble of F/A-18s.

And looks like Malaysian Air force seem to have more radar data than they currently disclose. All they say is that they are analyzing data.

[CodyBlade]

A Singapore Sub operating near the Malaysian east coast [at the time?] at 30/70m water depth?

He is pulling your leg lah.

You obviously don't know the sensitive dynamic between Malaysia and Singapore.

[Coagie]

flyboy328, You're right.
Seems like people always confuse the ELT's with the acoustic locater beacons. Two different things. One's for locating an aircraft lost on land, the other is for one lost on water. One uses radio, and the other uses sound.

[MPN11]

Ex-ATCO input.

Airfield search radars do not need to operate at long range: 60 or so will suffice.
Military and Civil Area control radars used to work out to much longer ranges - up to 120/150 in my day.
Air Defence radars work to even longer (classified) ranges.
Those are primary radar ranges ... SSR coverage will be similar.

As noted (and illustrated in a link) previously, Malaysian coastal (Air Defence?) radars reached almost to the Vietnam coastline at the FLs we are looking at.

[luoto]

It is probably worthwhile noting that elt beacons are not the same as the underwater beacons attached to the CVR/FDR or similar. The former has a totally different frequency range (not sure about its water penetration and a quick search was shy to talk about max depths) and a much shorter battery life I.e. http://v5.books.elsevier.com/bookscat/samples/9780750681377/9780750681377.pdf and the underwater beacons can work for over a month at up to 6 km deep (if that is the rating the reality might be better) http://rjeint.com/pdf/DK120.PDF plus the methods of activation are different. I don't know how rugged they are, if there was a colossal explosion or impact in flight, as to whether they would survive no matter what the spec sheets may imply.

[bille1319]

Well if these flotsam snaps and location charts are to be believed and they would need to have seen them close up, not from 1000's then it looks like the doomed airliner hardly turned around but headed 40degs port in it's dying minutes. Hope they keep floating long enough til first light and get some part/serial numbers of the bits.

[repariit]

Quote:
Object suspected of belonging to missing plane found Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority says a navy plane has found parts suspected of belonging to the Malaysian Airlines plane, Reuters reports.
Parts of tail and door? Keen for further information. US NBC news report says that these items are not from MH370. Not the further information that we had hoped to hear.

[SaturnV]

From the Washington Post, the sequentially issued tickets to the two individuals with the stolen passports were sold by a travel agent in Pattaya Thailand. No information on routing from Bangkok to Kuala Lumpur. Subsequent itinerary was Kuala Lumpur to Beijing to Amsterdam. At Amsterdam, one individual booked to Copenhagen, the other to Frankfurt. Seems like a circuitous routing to their final destination.

Would not immigration officials at Schiphol receive a passenger manifest of the incoming flight, and check that manifest against a database of reported passport losses, and identify that individual for special attention on entry?

[MPN11]

SaturnV ... Depends on how intelligent the false passport bearers are, and what story they were told by the passport producer/seller as they handed over large numbers of baht.

Many illegals get picked up at passport checks ... that doesn't stop others following the same route, losing their money in the process.

[lapp]

Would not immigration officials at Schiphol receive a passenger manifest of the incoming flight, and check that manifest against a database of reported passport losses, and identify that individual for special attention on entry?

No they would not, there is no such requirement in Europe or anywhere else but the US.

[Acklington]

earth :: an animated map of global wind and weather (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=104.11,7.61,1952) - the prevailing current below the last reported position MH370 would carry debris towards the east coast of Malaysia.

[CodyBlade]

Don't think this qualifies as a Singapore Submarine!

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/ad44/Blade336/Subsupport_zps1a54b311.jpg (http://s920.photobucket.com/user/Blade336/media/Subsupport_zps1a54b311.jpg.html)

Like I said filter out the BS.

[Global Warrior]

Chilling words...

The cumulative effects of system malfunctions, reduced longitudinal stability, increased angle-of-attack in the turn, supersonic speed, high altitude and other factors imposed forces on the airframe that exceeded flight control authority and the Stability Augmentation System's ability to restore control. Everything seemed to unfold in slow motion. I learned later the time from event onset to catastrophic departure from controlled flight was only 2-3 seconds. Still trying to communicate with Jim, I blacked out, succumbing to extremely high g-forces. Then the SR-71. . literally. . disintegrated around us. From that point, I was just along for the ride. And my next recollection was a hazy thought that I was having a bad dream. Maybe I'll wake up and get out of this mess, I mused. Gradually regaining consciousness, I realized this was no dream; it had really happened. That also was disturbing, because I COULD NOT HAVE SURVIVED what had just happened.

You Must Read This Test Pilot's Story of an SR-71 Disintegrating During Flight | Gizmodo UK (http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/03/you-must-read-this-test-pilots-story-of-an-sr-71-disintegrating-during-flight/)

[luoto]

Re Amsterdam and use of API/PNR data, I couldn't see anything newer than this. Answer to a written question - Use of PNR in the Netherlands - E-007686/2011 (http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getAllAnswers.do?reference=E-2011-007686&language=FR)

Of course, if the power makers had extracted their digits earlier ...? http://www.defenceweb.co.za/media/jukebox/bordercontrol2010/Thomas_Marten.pps and http://www.worldtek.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Thomas-Marten.pdf

Readded NL does have API requirements as verified on sites such as Emirates.com. Delivery announcement-http://www.arinc.com/news/press_releases/2012/03-13-12_arinc_delivers_apis.html

[wlatc]

Since the first post on this thread, the following information has been received:

Aircraft missing.

Everything else is interesting reading, but sheds absolutely no light on what has happened.

OK, back to the chatter...

[wiggy]

I've been led to believe by our in house security folks that these days in many parts of the world your passport is more valuable to a thief than your wallet ( that's certainly correct in my case :rolleyes:).

Before getting bogged down on the significance of these passports to this flight is it worth considering how many passengers on widebody flights are travelling on false documents....right now?

[Global Warrior]

I only posted this because i think it describes what an in flight break up feels like... from someone that survived one. The A?C type to my mind doesn't matter... But if something like this happened to MH370... it sheds light on why there was no comms and probably how (fortunately) quick it could have been :(

RIP

[shawk]

Via BBC:
When an Air India plane crashed in Mangalore in 2010 en route from Dubai, with the loss of 158 lives, as many 10 fraudulent passports were recovered.

[training wheels]

The FDR is designed to withstand an impact equating to approximately 310mph, but a vertical high-speed dive into relatively shallow water would cause serious damage to it.

A Silk Air 737 that dived in to the Musi River in Palembang was obliterated when it hit the water, but the FDR survived and was recovered with useable data. Google Silk Air MI 185. The aircraft nose dived from a similar flight level to MH 370.

[ECAM_Actions]

So if any of the passengers are carrying fake passports, that immediately means it was their fault if it crashed? :ugh:

I'm not down-playing the seriousness of the theft of passports, but it is getting just a little ridiculous.

In other (real) news, after the loss of secondary RADAR from MH370, they are saying the aircraft possibly turned around, according to primary RADAR track.

[SaturnV]

thanks luoto.

The Malaysian authorities say they are examining video of the two individuals traveling on European passports with European forenames and surnames. It will be interesting to see how European they look.

lapp, according to Air Canada, there are 16 countries that require API besides the U.S., including China.

http://www.aircanada.com/en/travelinfo/APIS/apis.html

[David Bass]

For those who don't know about ATC radar, I hope the following can help a little.

An example of a relatively modern primary surveillance radar (PSR) produced by SELEX - the ATCR-33S - is quoted as having a detection range of 60-100 NM in S-band. I recall that the lower limit is a guaranteed level of performance in bad weather with some failed transmit modules, so a fully functional radar in good weather is likely to exceed the upper limit quoted.

They have another model that works in L band which is claimed to have a range of approximately double that - so 100-200 NM.

I would imagine that the ranges quoted above would be typical of PSR available in relatively modern ATC systems that wanted primary radar. Legacy systems from the 1970s and 80s would likely be at the lower end of the quoted ranges, but almost anything is possible with enough watts. Military specific radars are likely to have longer ranges.

PSR can give some idea of altitude because (some types) can scan "beams" at different angles to the vertical and have processors that convert the angle plus the range into height, but this isn't going to be precise.

Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR) generally has a significantly longer range than primary, because it relies on the aircraft transponder replying to an interrogation pulse. The return signal identifies the aircraft and should by now also include height data.

Without confusing matters by attempting to go into the details of Mode-C, Mode-S etc, ADS-B as used by the public air traffic websites relies on an (ad-hoc network of) receiving antennas that eavesdrop on the replies from (extended) SSR interrogations. The receivers decode extended data that is generated by the aircraft, but are susceptible to overlapping transmissions by other aircraft in range, and I suppose by other RF noise.

*IF* ADS-B data is received correctly by a receiving antenna *AND* the aircraft was transmitting its position (and altitude) data correctly *THEN* the position reported should be correct.

If however the data packets were corrupted by other transmissions, or the aircraft was no longer reporting its position correctly, you could receive anything, or nothing. There are mechanisms (checksums, for example) that should reject corrupted data, but nothing is foolproof.

Apologies in advance to those I've offended by errors, omissions or by teaching the art of egg sucking. This was intended to be a simple factual post. As always, corrections are welcome.

[YRP]

Read this article...two points

1) 2 people on an aircraft with stolen passports is rare (uncommon)
2) 5 ticketed passengers failed to board the flight and their luggage was removed (sounds like a lot of missed passengers) a diversion?


Point 2 is not unusual. Almost every major accident, someone comes up with some "divine intervention" story of having missed the flight due to traffic / impulsive change of plans / other issues. It turns out that almost every successful flight has a few people who missed or avoided the flight. If that were not the case, airlines would not oversell flights.

Failing to board... could be one group got lost in the bar/shopping/restaurant. Not notable. It is certainly NOT a sign of terrorism. What terrorists would want to call attention to the flight (for which something nefarious was in the works) through something like this?

Point 1... statistically unusual events do happen. But it might be simpler. This might be two people travelling together... both "needing" fake passports for the same reason, eg migration as suggested in various posts.

[luoto]

Some US figures about prevalence of fraudulent documents: http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/newsroom/fact_sheets/travel/frad_doc_detect.ctt/frad_doc_detect.doc Another link suggested 9/11 hijackers had modified documents but I appreciate some of the facts in that case are controversial to many (chances of two passports belonging to hijackers surviving a massive fire unscathed). One can be sure that if the authorities state the problem is X, the real figure will be much, much higher due to those who escape detection.

[virginblue]

Would not immigration officials at Schiphol receive a passenger manifest of the incoming flight, and check that manifest against a database of reported passport losses, and identify that individual for special attention on entry?
No they would not, there is no such requirement in Europe or anywhere else but the US.

But surely red lights would have flashed when those two passengers travelling on stolen showed up at the Schengen border at AMS - given that the passports produced to the immigration officer were registered as stolen with Interpol?

[andrasz]

@FREDAcheck

The transmission power output. Theoretically a 200NM range is possible, but in normal civilian operations unnecessary, and power requirement increases exponentially with target distance.

[scoobys]

I flew as an f/a doing long haul for years, if I was given a quid every time someone tried to bin or burn their passports in the lavs on arrival into egll I'd be a millionaire, then they would tell immigration they where from a different country,have been persecuted and have just so happened to have lost their passports and please Mr Blair can I have asylum..

Why people are so surprised illegals are on flights is example of how naive I'll informed and unqualified people can be...

Let's see if this post survives

[YRP]

Freescale Semiconductor managers on board
About 20 top management employees from semiconductor company Freescale Semiconductor (with HQ in Austin, TX,) were among 38 Malaysians onboard MAS flight MH370.

Read full article here:


This is journalists taking a sensational approach here. These might have been management prospects but no 30 year old Malaysian based employee of Freescale who can be spared for a month long course is in top management.

For anyone familiar with the semiconductor industry, this has as much truth to it as media reporting on aviation details. :)

[MPN11]

Good (and rare) post, David Bass. I would have expanded more in my earlier one, but England v. Wales took priority :)

My background in Terminal ATC spanned the decades from the old GCA truck MPN11 to AR1 and AR15. In Area Radar (more pertinent here) I spent years working the T82 (with stacked beam height-finder capability) and remotely fed Air Defence T84/T85. Then at LATCC with its multitudes of radars feeding a computerised combining machine that gave the best radar cover for each 15x15 mile box.

I suspect the Malaysian and Vietnamese authorities will have some radar recordings to assist, once processed. Whether either one wishes to reveal the extent of their Air Defence radar cover is a separate issue. I suspect there would be discreet hints to their National search assets, but I doubt we would see that revealed.

[Old Boeing Driver]

I have read the story about the SR-71 mission several times.

I am guessing MS370 was about M.85 at FL350 for cruise.

Disregarding all the conspiracy theories for the moment, there is an indication that the plane's direction turned abruptly to the left. (if the data is correct)

The captain was a 777 simulator fan. Maybe demonstrating something on the real plane?

Question for all...???

Is there anyway the plane could have exceeded designed speeds in a short period of time so as to disintegrate?

[Livesinafield]

Just been informed reuters has a source saying preliminary investigations indicate a in flight disintegration. ..


Don't shoot the messenger

[very ex-ba]

Having an Eticket issued to a final country does not necessarily mean anything more than sometimes (often) it is cheaper to book a ticket to point D via point B&C than to terminate the journey in B or C.
Canny travel agents and passengers do this all the time.
It is called cross border selling. The pax has no use for the final coupon(s) and they just nosho for it. Nothing the airline can do about it, and pax has got himself cheaper fare.

If you have the correct ID you can disembark even at transit points, and enter that country with practically no questions asked, expecially within the EU. Arriving pax with an EU passport are not cross checked with the flight manifest or whether their ticket actually permits them to stopover or only transit point B or C from an airfare point of view.

Immig is not interested in cross border selling of tickets. They are only interested in whether an arriving pax has the correct documents to enter their country.

The US in this regard is much tougher- hence queues to enter the US take several hours to get through.
An EU passport holder arriving within the EU, has their passport scanned and off they go...if that.

[CodyBlade]

Correct ex-BA.

Creative routing my the travel agents.

[The Ancient Geek]

How close is the 772 to coffin corner at FL350 ?
An autopilot can disconnect for any number of trivial reasons and a hamfisted attempt to regain manual control at altitude could possibly lead to loss of control and/or confusion as per AF447.

[ECAM_Actions]

Sky News just reporting that they have VERIFIED a photo showing what appears to be part of an aircraft door as an actual photo from the search. They also say they have another photo showing a tail fin (but refused to show it pending verification).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiSevV6CYAAXXLl.jpg

[SaturnV]

The rationale used by the Reuters source:

"The fact that we are unable to find any debris so far appears to indicate that the aircraft is likely to have disintegrated at around 35,000 feet," said the source, who is involved in the investigations in Malaysia.

If the plane had plunged intact from such a height, breaking up only on impact with the water, search teams would have expected to find a fairly concentrated pattern of debris, said the source, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Reuters goes on to say that the source spoke before reports indicating wreckage/debris had been spotted.

[luoto]

I think some carriers scan in the image of each passenger's passport for each flight to help any unfortunate in-air misplacing of docs. I recall one of the telly Airport-like programmes mentioning this in the past.

Can any ACARS expert state whether previous flights of MH370 would have had confirmed ACARS tx/rx of regular information, I.e positions at a given location? Is it so that ACARS connects to a series of downlink stations and whichever answers first establishes the connection gets the message (removing the out of range issue?).

As it seems many hobbyists routinely grab ACARS transmissions, should it be odd that this flight's wasn't. I presume ACARS should have redundant eqpt inboard (I understand there can be several comms paths). Google brought up this link (about 9/11 and some controversial claims, but if one focuses only on the technical side) shouldn't it imply that MH would have received many 'no connection' responses to any ACARS messages it might have originated? After t/o would they proactively originate many msgs on a typical flight? http://911woodybox.********.fi/2012/10/united-93-received-18-acars-uplinks.html

[YRP]

Coagie, do you have a reference for the claim that the French submarine was not listening for the right signal from the AF447 black boxes?

I find it very hard to believe. People generally are not that stupid. Sonar operators (if that is how they were listening) would have in depth technical knowledge of their equipment.

[barrel_owl]

Originally Posted by barrel owl
Freescale Semiconductor managers on board
About 20 top management employees from semiconductor company Freescale Semiconductor (with HQ in Austin, TX,) were among 38 Malaysians onboard MAS flight MH370.

Read full article here:
This is journalists taking a sensational approach here. These might have been management prospects but no 30 year old Malaysian based employee of Freescale who can be spared for a month long course is in top management.

For anyone familiar with the semiconductor industry, this has as much truth to it as media reporting on aviation details.

Freescale USA confirms staff were on board MH370 | The Rakyat Post - The Rakyat Post (http://www.therakyatpost.com/news/2014/03/09/freescale-usa-confirms-staff-were-on-board-mh370/)

[luoto]

The Reuters report is rather caveated and has lots of wriggle room.

(Reuters) - Officials investigating the disappearance of a Malaysian airliner with 239 people on board are narrowing the focus of their inquiries on the possibility that it disintegrated in mid-flight, a senior source said on Sunday.

[mseyfang]

@OldBoeingDriver Unlikely in my opinion overspeed alone would cause disintegration. United 175 hit the WTC at 513 knots at 700 feet and remained intact until impact, which is past the barber pole. Vmo for that airplane is 360 knots IIRC. Overspeed plus some kind of abrupt maneuver, possibly.

[WilyB]

the French submarine was not listening for the right signal from the AF447 black boxes?

I find it very hard to believe.

Particularly since the French are among the leaders in sonar technology, selling them to the US and the UK among others.

Thales Underwater Systems - Sonar Systems - Naval Technology (http://www.naval-technology.com/contractors/sonar/thales-sonar/)

[poorjohn]

PROBABLY UNRELATED MISINFORMATION: Is the mention of an AD related to 777 cracks (AvHerald comments) of interest here?The only useful link is to [Federal Register Volume 78, Number 187 (Thursday, September 26, 2013)] which I'm not sure how to conjure up.

Yup, seems likely to be routine airplane-safety business. Here's part of the text of the publication of the intended AD: We received a report of cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin underneath the SATCOM antenna adapter. During a maintenance planning data inspection, one operator reported a 16-inch crack under the 3-bay SATCOM antenna adapter plate in the crown skin of the fuselage on an airplane that was 14 years old with approximately 14,000 total flight cycles. Subsequent to this crack finding, the same operator inspected 42 other airplanes that are between 6 and 16 years old and found some local corrosion, but no other cracking. Cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin, if not corrected, could lead to rapid decompression and loss of structural integrity of the airplane.

[er340790]

Just a word of caution from a S&R Tech (CASARA) on the reported 'oil-slicks' apparently seen by the Vietnamese. These waters are near some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. Many vessels still routinely (and illegally) 'flush' their tanks while at sea. Yes, the sheen could be from aircraft Jet A1 - but would dissipate pretty quickly, in hours not days.

There is a distinct possibly it came from a passing vessel though...

[oyviv]

Quoting Scoobys:
I flew as an f/a doing long haul for years, if I was given a quid every time someone tried to bin or burn their passports in the lavs on arrival into egll I'd be a millionaire, then they would tell immigration they where from a different country,have been persecuted and have just so happened to have lost their passports and please Mr Blair can I have asylum.
unquote

I was once airline staff at a major airport. The same thing happened there! Traveling on a fake passport is not necessarily related to terrorism! In an earlier post someone suggested that the supposed itinerary of the users could mask their country of origin, making a repatriation difficult. Sounds plausible too!

[andrasz]

Sky News just reporting that they have VERIFIED a photo...

That was one amazing feat of investigative journalism, given that the photo was posted on an official Vietnamese website several hours ago (and linked several times on this forum too). However there is nothing yet to suggest that whatever we see on the photo comes from the aircraft.

[YRP]

barrel owl, sorry might not have been clear.

I don't mean that the Freescale employees weren't on the flight, simply that they were unlikely to be top key employees. This wasn't a "decapitation" of the company management as the article seemed to be implying. It may have been low level managers from one of their Malaysian fabs.

[Global Warrior]

I have read the story about the SR-71 mission several times.

I am guessing MS370 was about M.85 at FL350 for cruise.

Disregarding all the conspiracy theories for the moment, there is an indication that the plane's direction turned abruptly to the left. (if the data is correct)

The captain was a 777 simulator fan. Maybe demonstrating something on the real plane?

Question for all...???

Is there anyway the plane could have exceeded designed speeds in a short period of time so as to disintegrate?

Probably .82-.83...

I haven't heard that the turn was abrupt.

WTF is a simulator fan??? Was he a training Capt?

Im 1000% sure PIC would not have been "demonstrating" anything. Sims are for demonstrations........ Not the A/C on a revenue flight. Sometimes training (not that I'm insinuating this was a training flight at all) is about showing new pilots the page numbering system in the flight manual!!!

FBW aircraft have envelope protection so exceeding limits is difficult.

GW

[Coagie]

"I find it very hard to believe. People generally are not that stupid. Sonar operators (if that is how they were listening) would have in depth technical knowledge of their equipment."


YRP, They may have knowledge of their equipment, but not knowledge of what frequency to listen for from an aircrafts acoustic beacon. That's not something they do everyday.
And yes, people are generally that stupid. They just front like they know what's going on. It's a natural defense mechanism.
As far as a reference, look it up yourself. You'll remember it longer. Believe me, if you do your own research, you'll find how competent/incompetent people, governments, businesses, etc really are!

[Old Boeing Driver]

That was kind of the direction I was going.

Maybe a scenario where a malfunction got them way too fast, and then a ham-fisted recovery started various mechanical failures.

I know not applicable here, but harmonic resonance in a helicopter utterly disintegrates it in a few seconds.

I was wondering if there might be something similar with this situation.

Just another wild theory.......

[toffeez]

"MH 653 was a scheduled domestic flight from Penang (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penang) to Kuala Lumpur (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuala_Lumpur) in Malaysia, operated by MAS. On the evening of 4 December 1977, the Boeing 737-200 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737) aircraft flying the service crashed at Tanjung Kupang (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanjung_Kupang), Johor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johor), in Malaysia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia). It was the first fatal air crash for Malaysia Airlines (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines) with all 93 passengers and 7 crew killed instantly. The flight was apparently hijacked (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_hijacking) as soon as it reached cruise altitude. The circumstances in which the hijacking and subsequent crash occurred remain unsolved."

[mseyfang]

That was kind of the direction I was going.

Maybe a scenario where a
malfunction got them way too fast, and them a ham-fisted recovery started
various mechanical failures.

I know not applicable here, but harmonic
resonance in a helicopter utterly disintegrates it in a few seconds.

I
was wondering if there might be something similar with this situation.


Just another wild theory.......


Put that way, maybe not so crazy at all. AA 587 went into Jamaica Bay in 2001 due to the overuse of rudder (a series of full deflections by the FO) after a wake turbulence encounter, which caused the rudder and vertical stabilizer to separate from the fuselage. The problem with the theory though is that it doesn't explain the abrupt and complete loss of communication.

[singleacting]

Nah, catastrofic failure is the only answer, cause? undetermined.

[Coagie]

"Okay so based on your response, Coagie, you don't have a reference. :) "


YRP, People like you have to have facts spoon fed to you. Won't this make you fall prey to propaganda? I could spend a time finding the reference from a while ago, but if you're wondering, why not look yourself? I poured over thousands of facts about AF447, over the last 5 years, and if I happen to dig it up, I'll let you know. Maybe someone else remembers the French having to review the sonar tapes? It wasn't a secret, but since it was such a big mistake, they didn't exactly shout it from the treetops!

[henra]

@OldBoeingDriver Unlikely in my opinion overspeed alone would cause disintegration. United 175 hit the WTC at 513 knots at 700 feet and remained intact until impact, which is past the barber pole. Vmo for that airplane is 360 knots IIRC. Overspeed plus some kind of abrupt maneuver, possibly.

You have to take into consideration that Mmo is potentially more critical than Vmo. Exceeding Vmo alone is empirically not that dangerous.
Significantly exceeding Mmo on the other hand can lead to nasty flutter which can then lead to disintegration.
At high altidute you would hit ciritcal Mach number prior to hitting any ciritcal airspeed. Theoretically this can become unrecoverable due to Mach Tuck. But to get to that point will required a significant and extended dive since drag will start to increase heavily when approaching Mach 1.
That said, a straight steep dive from 35k probably could lead to disintegration.

In reality straight dives are rare and less disorienting. More often a spiral dive ensues.
And that also tends to be more dangerous and also more difficult to identify and counter correctly at night or in IMC.
At lower altitudes it is therefore rather this 'graveyard spiral' mechanism that sometimes leads to in-flight disintegration (especially of GA aircraft that are otherwsie rather difficult to break up in flight). In that case a spiral dive which is not actively countered continues to accelerate in rotation and vertical speed. Due to longitudinal stability the aircraft will pull more and more g to counter the increasing speed. If not interrupted quickly by dedicated and correct action this will lead quickly to self- disintegration. Instinctive pull-up prior to complete arrest of rotation aggravates the problem and will lead to immediate disintegration.

[G-CPTN]

WTF is a simulator fan???

Malaysia Airlines Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah of MH370 is an experienced pilot. He set up this 777 simulator. - Sharelor (http://www.sharelor.net/1/post/2014/03/malaysian-airlines-captainzaharie-ahmad-shah-of-mh370-is-an-experienced-pilot-here-is-a-flight-simulator-that-he-set-up.html)

[CaptainDrCook]

You have to take into consideration that Mmo is potentially more critical than Vmo. Exceeding Vmo alone is empirically not that dangerous.
Significantly exceeding Mmo on the other hand can lead to nasty flutter which can then lead to disintegration.
At high altidute you would hit ciritcal Mach number prior to hitting any ciritcal airspeed. Theoretically this can become unrecoverable due to Mach Tuck. But to get to that point will required a significant and extended dive since drag will start to increase heavily when approaching Mach 1.
That said, a straight steep dive from 35k probably could lead to disintegration.

In reality straight dives are rare and less disorienting. More often a spiral dive ensues.
And that also tends to be more dangerous and also more difficult to identify and counter correctly at night or in IMC.
At lower altitudes it is therefore rather this 'graveyard spiral' mechanism that sometimes leads to in-flight disintegration (especially of GA aircraft that are otherwsie rather difficult to break up in flight). In that case a spiral dive which is not actively countered continues to accelerate in rotation and vertical speed. Due to longitudinal stability the aircraft will pull more and more g to counter the increasing speed. If not interrupted quickly by dedicated and correct action this will lead quickly to self- disintegration. Instinctive pull-up prior to complete arrest of rotation aggravates the problem and will lead to immediate disintegration.

While completely true, this is handling skills and knowledge that must be demonstrated before being granted a PPL. The PIC on this flight had nearly 20,000 hours... he would know how to break out of a spin wouldn't he?

[wd-15717]

Accepting that the photo purported to show the aircraft door is indeed that of a door, I don't recall 777 doors with windows of that size and more-or-less centered in the door frame. Most of the doors I've seen have windows that seem smaller and off-center. Maybe just my imagination playing tricks or an optical illusion.

[Global Warrior]

WTF is a simulator fan???
Malaysia Airlines Captain*Zaharie Ahmad Shah of MH370 is an experienced pilot. He set up this 777 simulator. - Sharelor

An x-sim fan!!!

Well you need to understand that in our profession, a simulator is a box we crawl into once/twice per year to practice procedures and (hopefully) pass competency checks. its not a computer game.

To be honest, i don't think anyone is a "fan" of simulators (job wise)...except the guy in the back that is getting paid to kill/humiliate/train/impart knowledge/empathise/motivate and pass us... all for the safety/benefit/comfort of the travelling public :ok:

GW

[chrisms86]

The scary thing to me is if the two-men theory is correct these investigators will have a hell of a time identifying the culprits. I'm just thinking of the possible evidence that would exist in a case like that and it could be very little. The main lead would be what some shady stolen passport dealer in Thailand? And CCTV footage.

Obviously whatever networks they would have been involved in are not well penetrated by intelligence agencies.

Malaysia does scan fingerprints on arrival but who is to say that procedure wasn't bypassed also.

I'm just thinking of the wider implications, it seems to still be fairly easy to blow up a plane. Allowing myself to engage in rampant speculation to address an issue larger than the incident itself

[Old Boeing Driver]

Thanks very much for your explanation.

In one of the early posts on this thread, the flightaware, or other source, showed a heading of 024 degrees. The next heading, in the same minute showed a heading of about 340 degrees (if I remember correctly). That was the last data transmission.

Some "reliable sources" had said that radar data shows the plane turning back.

I wonder if this could have been the start of a high speed problem from which there was no recovery.

Regards,

OBD

[scoobys]

"WTF is a simulator fan???"

Most of the unqualified posters on here

[Kentot Besar]

Malaysia has " highly sophiscated " Scorpene submarines which have French made technology....why are these assets not used? AF447 was in deep ocean waters. I believe the depths of the Gulf of Siam is shallower but should be able to accommodate the Scorpenes; they would certainly be a crowning moment for the much ridiculed decision to buy the subs.;):ok:

[JetBandit]

Nice to wake up this morning around 3.00 am and see that some or most of the fringe dwellers have yet to surface.

Talk of meteorites, aliens, mid air collisions, suicide, SR71 and craziness from our IT Expert, EGLD with his laughable CCTV suggestions have all but disappeared!

Just some late night dogs kicking the topic round in a fairly professional fashion.

I too am both amazed and a little disappointed to notice the severe culling of posts that are there one moment and then suddenly gone the next.

I had the decency, I thought, to tell the Mods what a "fairly" good job they were doing considering the pressure they have been under on the highest traffic topic for many a long year.

Let's hope today brings the mystery to a close! The pros in the business are mostly leaning towards terrorism whilst the rest of the pack live in a world of fantasy, understandable I guess in the circumstances of such a mystery.

[henra]

While completely true, this is handling skills and knowledge that must be demonstrated before being granted a PPL. The PIC on this flight had nearly 20,000 hours... he would know how to break out of a spin wouldn't he?

In VMC and proper daylight and in an intentional maneuver I would take that as a given .

Unprepared at night over Sea or ín IMC?
Not quite as easy. The Instruments will be apparently 'tumbling', g load will be straight vertical into the seat and without external reference even identifying the direction of rotation will not be that easy, especially when a significant rate and g load has already developped.
Vertigo included for free.
In AF447 they even didn't manage to identify a simple stall...
A spiral dive or spin w/o external reference is in a different league compared to that.

[AlphaZuluRomeo]

Hi Coagie,

The topic of my PM being raised here, let's pick it from here:
I poured over thousands of facts about AF447, over the last 5 years
So did I.

Maybe someone else remembers the French having to review the sonar tapes?
Yes, I remember the review of the sonar tapes. OTOH, I don't remember the part where the french submariners were so silly as to not know what they were looking for. The review itself is far from enough to arrive to such a conclusion.

[fastcruise]

Is recovery from spin part of PPL training, a aerodynamic flutter would lead to mid air disintegration. I would say that a ADIRU malfunction could lead to mishandling of controls to a deep stall, which would cause an almost intact descent till impact.

[Acklington]

It's track was 25 deg. Just before it disappeared its track changed to 40 deg combined with a slight drop in airspeed

[cats_five]

<snip>
Interesting rainbow pattern on the sea as well, might indicate oil but hard to tell.

Looks like digital noise from a high ISO to me.

Edit: I see MSJH agrees with me.

[slip and turn]

Coagie, do you have a reference for the claim that the French submarine was not listening for the right signal from the AF447 black boxes?
I find it very hard to believe ..."I find it very hard to believe. People generally are not that stupid. Sonar operators (if that is how they were listening) would have in depth technical knowledge of their equipment."YRP, They may have knowledge of their equipment, but not knowledge of what frequency to listen for from an aircrafts acoustic beacon. That's not something they do everyday.
And yes, people are generally that stupid. They just front like they know what's going on. It's a natural defense mechanism.
As far as a reference, look it up yourself. You'll remember it longer. Believe me, if you do your own research, you'll find how competent/incompetent people, governments, businesses, etc really are!Coagie makes a good point. If you are seriously interested in effective research I recommend learning a few quick-win effective research techniques so you don't have to bash fellow PPRuNers for their sources! E.g. start with Google and a few well chosen search words like AF447 acoustic locator sonar frequency.

Then in seconds you might easily stumble over stuff like:
BEA to examine why acoustic sweep missed AF447 recorders - 5/5/2011 - Flight Global (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/bea-to-examine-why-acoustic-sweep-missed-af447-recorders-356286/)
https://fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/downloadFile/2589871808139/dissertacao.pdf

Hope that helps :ok:

[MaxReheat]

If, and I repeat 'if', this was a mid-air explosion, would it not be 'normal' for the initiating organisation to have publicly claimed responsibilty by now?

[Dumbo Jet]

Malaysia’s air force chief, Rodzali Daud, said radar indicated that the plane may have turned back, but did not give further details on which direction it went or how far it veered off course. (Source: National Post)

Air force chief Rodzali Daud said the investigation was now focusing on a recording of radar signals that showed there was a "possibility" the aircraft had turned back from its flight path. (Source: bbc.co.uk)

Is it not possible that an inflight disintegration may cause what seems to be a significant course change on a set of radar signals, due to parts of the aircraft falling in different directions?

[STN Ramp Rat]

What do the immigration people do with those that arrive on stolen passports? Can they return them? Where to? If the "refugees" don't cooperate, immigration will never know where they're from, thus can't ship them back.

I can confirm that if a passenger presents themselves at immigration having "forgotten" where they boarded the aircraft then the immigration can ,and do, look at the CCTV footage between the aircraft and gates to work out which aircraft they arrived on. once this has been done removal directions are issued and the passenger goes back to whence they came at the cost of the airline. it is not fool proof but it does work

[southern duel]

max reheat- dont you read anything. !!! Its been mentioned in a lot of posts already !

Lockerbie !!!

Oh by the way where is the debris field . Idf that happened at FL350 it would be spread far and wide.

[Sorry Dog]

Pinkman, the WSJ article links to the same photo of the 'window panel' that we have already seen, could be any piece of unrelated floating debris (eg. some large piece of Styrofoam packaging). Until it is retrieved and confirmed as an aircraft part, it's no new information.

Agreed. It actually looks to me more like the inside of a porta-pottie missing the lid. If you've ever had to search or retrieve anything from sea you will know that it's hard to identify something like that from 200 feet much less several thousand... it has to be physically retrieved. I don't mind seeing leaps in conclusions from arm chair posters, but to that from professional reporting outfits like WSJ is kinda bothersome.

[Global Warrior]

While completely true, this is handling skills and knowledge that must be demonstrated before being granted a PPL. The PIC on this flight had nearly 20,000 hours... he would know how to break out of a spin wouldn't he?

Well....we're not taught to recover from a spin...on instruments...at night!

I have NO KNOWLEDGE of the 777 FBW system but i assume, it won't let you get close to a stall, let alone a spin.

If an aircraft departs controlled flight, its probably the result of the secondary effect of a malfunction (recovering from a failure results in the departure) a primary effect malfunction (the malfunction itself causes the departure)...or a catastrophic failure that left no options for a recovery.

[treacletopping]

My heart goes out to all the families of the passengers on flight MH370. As a daughter of one of the passengers killed on flight MH653 Yes we are still waiting for answers some 35 years later I don't expect in my lifetime to get one I just hope to god those poor families get some answers sooner rather than later.

[lakerman]

acklington I think you will find if you read all the posts the track was 025 and then it turned to 340.

maxreheat
Your comment re interested parties claiming responsibilty was made about 750 plus posts ago and repeated by many others who do not read previous posts.

[wiggy]

I have NO KNOWLEDGE of the 777 FBW system but i assume, it won't let you get close to a stall, let alone a spin.

I wouldn't say the 777 FBW in normal mode will prevent you from stalling, but it certainly drops a heck of a lot of hints on the way to the stall that you are doing something wrong.....

If the FBW has degraded into secondary/direct modes then those hints/protections are absent.

[Cows getting bigger]

For those who subscribe to rapid disintegration caused by an explosion, you don't necessarily need something as Machiavellian as a terrorist bomb. As someone else already hinted, what was the cargo? Or perhaps this could be another TWA800?

TWA Flight 800 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TWA_Flight_800)

[mseyfang]

@henra Something I should have taken into account; chalk it up to being up too early this morning when we changed time here in the states. Thanks for responding.

In any case, it's all pure speculation while we wait for actual news and quite unlikely as the airplane was likely in autoflight mode and there were no reported speed abnormalities. Massive structural failure still strikes me as the most likely explanation for reasons yet to be determined.

[henra]

I have NO KNOWLEDGE of the 777 FBW system but i assume, it won't let you get close to a stall, let alone a spin.


What it probably won't do is preventing you from entering a spiral dive if the AP kicks out and no one's watching.
Has happened before.
A spiral dive is a quite different matter from a spin. It is not aerodynamically out of control and will ultimately lead to disintegration, something a spin can't do since it is a more or less 1g maneuver and aerodynamically out of control.
But all that is indeed idle speculation. Or rather not. Just musing about general technical possibilities.

[Old Boeing Driver]

Just my $.02/2quid's worth (depending on where you are).

I don't think a stall/spin scenario is an issue here.

Far more likely to be a high speed, mach tuck, and flawed recovery issue.

[Five Green]

My apologies if this has been already covered.

The pic of the debris field looks remarkably like pics I have of the green houses clustered along the coast of Vietnam at night. There is an area with hundreds of rectangle green houses all clustered together and lit up with glowing internal lights. If you look closely at the pic you will see that the lights follow a valley in the top right. There is also a distinctive domed area which is a small hill.

That is why you can see them in the dark.

In addition a flight from KL to ZBAA would fly right over them just over an hour after take off.

[MPN11]

Sadly, yes, Five Green :cool:

But it was many, many, pages ago.

[stonevalley]

Kentot Besar:

Submarines In SAR

Malaysia has " highly sophiscated " Scorpene submarines which have French made technology....why are these assets not used? AF447 was in deep ocean waters. I believe the depths of the Gulf of Siam is shallower but should be able to accommodate the Scorpenes; they would certainly be a crowning moment for the much ridiculed decision to buy the subs.

What can a sub do that a surface vessel can't in this case which will aid recovery and locating the plane?

[draoidh]

I can't help but wonder if this could be the first CAT related in-flight breakup since BOAC 911.

- a satellite photo at the time and location shows high level cirrus clouds
- CAT events have increased in numbers and intensity in the past years
- the area has recently seen a very significant CAT event (SQ 308)
- apparently the aircraft dropped and changed course before vanishing

As unlikely as it is, boats have been swallowed by monster waves of previously unimaginable strengths. Could we be dealing with a monster CAT here?

[silverstrata]

What can a sub do that a surface vessel can't in this case which will aid recovery and locating the plane?



It can hear the black-box pinger at 50 km, instead of 3 km.

[deptrai]

Silver: some of the navy surface vessels involved in this search, and sonobuoy-equipped p-3s also have capable sonar. Submarines are good at hiding, not necessarily searching a large area for flotsam or pingers (particularly not in shallow water) although of course it won't hurt to use them when they're already there.

it's hard to grasp that a large, modern airliner can seemingly disappear without a trace, and it's very disturbing...but on the other hand, we're speaking about tens of thousands of km2 search area, which will have been expanded several times now. I think it's safe to say by now ELTs wont help. I'd also dare to say that locating debris on the surface of the ocean, despite all modern long-range sensors, will ultimately still depend on mark 1 eyeball verification. In the absence of radio transmissions and acars data, until some physical evidence is found, maybe it's time to freeze this thread?

[opnot]

once again pprune lives up to its I am an expert culture
the acft is missing 200 + people have died, no wreckage at the moment, but there are 50 pages of people telling us what may have happened leave it to facts not guesswork

[Feathered]

Objects have been spotted near the oil slicks, one appears to be similar to an aircraft door, 90 km south of Thổ Châu island (Vietnam):

Malaysia Airlines missing jet: object in water might be plane's door - World - CBC News (http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-missing-jet-object-in-water-might-be-plane-s-door-1.2565649)


MAP LINK (https://www.google.com/maps?q=8.795511,103.490753&num=1&t=m&z=9)

[FIRESYSOK]

Old Boring Drivel,

You repeatedly suggest this professional crew has botched a recovery from an upset event that not I, nor anyone else is aware of. Will you please refrain; the captain has 30+ years airline experience, this is a 777, not an unmodded Learjet. There is nothing suggesting a Mach tuck scenario, spiral dive, stall, spin, or anything for that matter.

This *is* perhaps the most embarrassing accident thread on Pprune. Ever.

[IcePack]

I do hope this is not an engine failure that caused an un-observed loss of airspeed & resulting consequences eg the 747 years ago. (Sorry if this has been raised but can't read all posts it would take all day)

[Whiskey Papa]

Nothing like a B777 door! Look at a picture of a B777. Easy!

[Global Warrior]

Well speculate no more 'cause Yahoo reckon they have an exclusive.... FAIL


Yahoo News UK & Ireland - Latest World News & UK News Headlines (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-airlines-plane-no-sign-abnormality-022614993.html#LMFGywx)

[Pom Pax]

You exit Thailand with a " Valid" Thai entry stamp in 1 passport and enter Malaysia with a second passport. Now Thai & Malay Exits compare you with your entry photo. Now does it work if your exit / entry is land, sea or rail. I doubt remote border post are connect with the main airport servers.

[Enos]

The door doesn't look like a main entry door, but it could be a forward or aft cargo door, bottom right hand side.


For the T7 to over speed to the point of disintegration you would have to do it intentionally, Mate of mine got a 767 50kts trough the barbers pole over Greenland a few years back due to wind shift, and it wasn't a problem for the aircraft, for him yes!

[LASJayhawk]

That picture looks more like the emergency exit hatch on a king air than a main door to a Boeing. :ooh:

Never been in a 777, could that be an overwing exit door?

On ELT's Since it's been 6 or 7 pages, and that's about how often it comes up. An ELT is designed to work in a potentially survivable crash, not to transmit if you hit the water at 600 MPH. Not to say the ELT isn't going off, but it would be separated from it's antenna. There is a picture of one of the AF flights recorders at the bottom of the ocean on the internet. If you look you will see it is still in its rack and the rack is separated from its mounting location.

[sycamore]

T A G,wrong mantra...you`ll go high rotational that way...
Rudder first ,then pitch..

[HeathrowAirport]

I was just looking at the flight plan, IGARI -BITOD is 059*M so the final recorded track was 040* - Winds surely didn't give 19* of drift on the night?

The last location tracked by Flightradar24 is
Time UTC: 17:21:03
Lat: 6.97
Lon: 103.63
Alt: 35000
Speed: 471 knots
Heading: 40

Between 17:19 and 17:20 the aircraft was changing heading from 25 to 40 degrees, which is probably completely according to flight plan as MH370 on both 4 March and 8 March did the same at the same position. Last 2 signals are both showing that the aircraft is heading in direction 40 degrees.

BITOD-BIBAN is 035*M so I presume that ATC gave a shortcut or is this not common practice in that airspace, as it is with European during quieter times? As the final turn at IGARI suggests a route direct given by ATC.

Today there are reports in media that MH370 may have turned around. FR24 have not tracked this. This could have happened if the aircraft suddenly lost altitude as FR24 coverage in that area is limited to about 30000 feet.

So this may explain why there was a 0ft readout from Mode S as anything below 30,000ft wouldn't read correctly due to lack of coverage. Whatever happened, did so before the next data grab at 17:22:ish..

[wiggy]

could that be an overwing exit door?

Not on any 777-200 I'm aware of....

[DaveReidUK]

So this may explain why there was a 0ft readout from Mode S

We don't know that there was such a thing.

[Whiskey Papa]

Re doors. You didn't look at a picture of a B777 as I suggested, did you?

[andrasz]

1000 posts and 50 pages down, perhaps time to summarize the VERIFIED facts we know more than 50 hours after the event:


Transponder response ceased after 17:21 UTC (01:21 LT), about 40 minutes into the flight
There was no verified communication with the aircraft after this time
Last reported position, altitude, speed and heading as reported by FR24 correct
There was no significant weather in the area of last contact
No unusual ACARS messages received
At last known position aircraft had a remaining endurance of approximately 6.5 hours, equating to a range of about 5000 kilometres
Subsequently aircraft did not enter any area with civilian primary radar coverage
There were two passengers with confirmed false identities on board, further two suspect.
Same airframe suffered substantial wingtip damage in a ground accident in Shanghai in August 2012 which was repaired
Till now no part of the aircraft had been located.
... ?

[HeathrowAirport]

We don't know that there was such a thing.

I am sure I read it on here, that there was erroneous/unverified data.

[MartinM]

That picture looks more like the emergency exit hatch on a king air than a main door to a Boeing. :ooh:

Never been in a 777, could that be an overwing exit door?



T7 has all Emergency Exits as full size doors. The hatch is indeed not a T7.

Not even a Boeing at all. 737th have different overwing exits ;)

Keep searching ...

[ian16th]

Global Warrior,

you can depart one place using one passport and arrive in the UK using another!!!!! BY AIR!!! Definitly.

A lot of dual passport holders do this, as many countries that allow dual citizenship, insist that if you have their passport you must use it at their border.

I am aware that South Africa and Australia have this requirement.
Two countries where there are many dual citizens with a UK passport.

[roving]

Given the repeated assertions that terrorists would not use forged stolen passports, this link addresses the Thai trade in forging stolen passports which are then sold on not only to criminals but terrorists groups.

Thailand?s crime-busters set sights on passport fraud gangs - The BigChilli (http://www.thebigchilli.com/1/post/2012/08/thailands-crime-busters-set-sights-on-passport-fraud-gangs.html)

[JG1]

Mach tuck? Spin? What? You might as well speculate that the ap failed and it flew off into orbit.

[kinteafrokunta]

Wrt to the early reports of another MAS pilot on MH088 having established contact on 121.5, the so called static and mumbling could be feeble replies from a hypoxic pilot using a poorly adjusted O2 mask.

In an abrupt explosive decompression, people with glasses or beards normally do not don the O2 masks properly especially in a busy, highly stressful emergency situation. Just saying.......:\

[JG1]

Wrt a breakup and a debris trail.. It could have ditched... And sank... Nobody knows yet ...until the airframe is found.

[roving]

GobanaStick, the 9/11 terrorists used forged passports.


govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/staff_statements/staff_statement_1.pdf

[Evanelpus]

That's no door but it did remind me of a cabin window dado panel.

[mseyfang]

Mach tuck? Spin? What? You might as well speculate that the ap failed and it flew off into orbit.

Admittedly it is unlikely, but there have been multiple instances of ADIRU failures that have resulted in uncommanded and unexpected aircraft maneuvers. Malaysia had one in 2005 in a T7 as I recall. While these faults have supposedly been fixed, one never knows; these are devices that are highly complex and they are only as good as the programming that goes into them.

Almost all accidents involve multiple causes. An ADIRU fault resulting in an uncommanded maneuver plus an incorrect response to that maneuver could, at least in theory, explain an inflight breakup.

In any case, I readily admit that this is idle speculation. The aircraft will be found, the investigators will do their work based on facts and evidence and the cause identified and hopefully something will be learned that makes aviation safer going forward.

[broadreach]

Early in this thread some posters, who I believe identified themselves as flight crew who regularly overfly the Gulf of Thailand, mentioned the density of squid fishing boats, with their bright lights to attract the squid. Looking down at night like looking at a starry sky. One poster suggested the fishermen would have been unlikely to see any object falling from the sky precisely because of the brightness of their own lights. With which I would agree entirely. At sea, with lights on, you can see nothing outside the immediate surroundings of the boat or ship.

I'm just wondering whether the area in in which the aircraft is presumed lost is also a regular fishing ground (it may not be the same area the early posters were referring to). And, if it is, what has become of the boats over the last two days. Would they have been dragooned into the search and offered rewards for finding anything, or would they have been chased off by the navies involved due to a perceived looting risk or that of naval vessels running them over? My own guess is that fishing boats would be warned to stay clear; it would be ironic, not to mention some loss of face for the authorities involved, if it were a fisherman who came up with the first piece of wreckage.

[Ida down]

The two Australian Air Force Orions are used to looking for needles in haystacks, so to speak, given the large distances they are used to searching, hopefully they will come up with something. The agony of the families concerned is becoming too much, this is appalling, and becoming increasingly bizarre, its almost like a movie set. Lets hope today, the answer comes.

[ia1166]

There is an emergency code for access to the flight deck in case of both pilot incapacitation.

The cabin crew have portable oxygen bottles so if they have passed out they could gain access to the flight deck, fit the oxy masks and recover the pilots.

They have to remember the code of course, and be somewhat pro active.

[wild goose]

Assuming the aircraft disintegrated over the sea, or struck the sea intact, surely by now debris would have been found (see AF447).

Lack of the above would suggest the aircraft coming down over land, whether intact or otherwise. Valujet in the Everglades comes to mind. Jungle canopies can make SAR very difficult, such as in southern Vietnam or even Malaysia itself.

[ia1166]

Igari is a long way off shore.

Not sure I've seen a lot of prawn boats out that far.

There is probably more chance of another aircraft seeing an in flight explosion, and not much chance of anyone seeing a nose dive at night.