Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[tartare]

The authorities have begun a search and rescue for Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight MH370 after the Beijing-bound plane lost contact with air traffic controllers this morning, the airline said today.

MAS said flight MH370 lost contact with Subang Air Traffic Control at 2.40am.

The B777-200 aircraft left the Kuala Lumpur International Airport at 12.41am and was expected to land in Beijing at 6.30am.


"The flight was carrying 227 passengers (including two infants), 12 crew members," the airline said in a statement.

"Malaysia Airlines is currently working with the authorities who have activated their search and rescue team to locate the aircraft," it added. – March 8, 2014.

[Jack1985]

B777-200 - ATC have lost all contact, search teams deployed. :sad:

[Capvermell]

Also just confirmed on Sky News at 00.26 today (Saturday 8th March)

Looks like the plane has already been missing for five to six hours but that details have only just been released to the press by the airline and/or local authorities

Sadly doesn't look at all hopeful.

This is potentially only the second hull loss of a 777 involving fatalities in flight despite more than 1,000 being in service and also potentially the first one ever involving the loss of all passengers and crew on board. Until the crash landing of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 at San Francisco International Airport on 6th July 2013 (resulting in the death of three passengers and the injury of most passengers on board, twelve with critical injuries) there had been no fatalities involving the hull loss of a Boeing 777. There were no fatalities but a significant number of injuries (none life threatening but one serious) when BA's 777-200ER (G-YMMM - serial number 30314) landed 270 metres (890 feet) short of runway 27L at London Heathrow on 17th January 2008.

[Jack1985]

Anyone know of the safety record of Malaysia Airlines? My own view would be quite a reputable airline?

[Capvermell]

From the airline's own website page at MH370 Flight Incident | Malaysia Airlines (http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html)


Saturday, March 08, 07:30 AM MYT +0800 Media Statement - MH370 Incident released at 7.24am

Sepang, 8 March 2014: Malaysia Airlines confirms that flight MH370 has lost contact with Subang Air Traffic Control at 2.40am, today (8 March 2014).


Flight MH370, operated on the B777-200 aircraft, departed Kuala Lumpur at 12.41am on 8 March 2014. MH370 was expected to land in Beijing at 6.30am the same day. The flight was carrying a total number of 227 passengers (including 2 infants), 12 crew members.


Malaysia Airlines is currently working with the authorities who have activated their Search and Rescue team to locate the aircraft.


The airline will provide regular updates on the situation. Meanwhile, the public may contact +603 7884 1234 for further info.

[HeathrowAirport]

Aircraft missing is 9M-MRO Boeing, B777-2H6 (ER) (B772) - cn: 28420

[electric-chris]

If FlightAware is correct (which it may not be), looks like it had just reached FL350 when contact was lost.

Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370/history/20140307/1635Z/WMKK/ZBAA/tracklog)

[Towhee]

Anecdotally, it's great. Landed last month in BKI in the dark in heavy rain and extremely limited visibility (as a pax). Actually, pondered why they proceeded.

Eta: replying to query regarding MH's safety record

[Jack1985]

Just an update according to FR24, the flight was detected as landed 39 mins after it departed Kuala Lumpur, a flight tracker image released shows the last traceable information was within that time frame, it looks to me like two things;

Either complete radio failure
OR
The aircraft has gone down within Malaysia

However the first theorem is compounded by the fact the aircraft is missing past its arrival time in Beijing by nearly 2hrs 40mins well outside required reserves.

I just hope I'm wrong. :sad:

[saunj11]

ASN Aircraft accident 09-AUG-2012 Boeing 777-2H6ER 9M-MRO (http://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=147571)

[AQIS Boigu]

...from Wikipedia...not bad for an airlines of that size (100+) in the environment they are flying in...

4 December 1977 - Malaysia Airlines Flight 653 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_653), a Boeing 737-200 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737) (9M-MBD) was hijacked and crashed in Tanjung Kupang (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanjung_Kupang), Johor, killing all 100 people aboard. It remains the deadliest crash of all time in Malaysia up to this day.

15 September 1995 - Malaysia Airlines Flight 2133, a Fokker 50 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fokker_50) (9M-MGH) crashed during approach in Tawau (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tawau), Sabah due to pilot error. 34 people were killed.[73] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines#cite_note-ASN19950915-73)

[glendalegoon]

any wx info for route of flight?

[repariit]

Flightware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370) shows that it did not go far. Would coverage be that limited there? Or, would the search area be that close to their departure?

[flt001]

Last data from ADS-B is about an hour before at FL350 half way across the Gulf (although seems others say different).

Company Facebook statement here. (https://www.facebook.com/my.malaysiaairlines/posts/514299315349933?cid=crisis_management_19726844&stream_ref=10)

Really hoping for some good news :(

[LASJayhawk]

I can assume that there is no signal from the ELT. So unless they pulled it out, I doubt any good news will be forthcoming. :(

[Jack1985]

AQIS Boigu Thanks for the information!

China Authorities have confirmed the flight never entered Chinese Airspace, and FlightAware have said the last recorded information shows the aircraft at 35,000 ft and 468kts - Information for MH370 was lost 20mins after departure :(

[flt001]

Unless my timezone maths is wrong the last data from FR24 is about 1hr 40min before LOC with atc. So assuming they carried on they would be over central Vietnam.

Lots of other planes showing up on the map in the region so either the transponder stopped for some reason or (more likely) the data never made it to FR24.

[PuraVidaTransport]

Flight Aware often does not have complete data. Airline statement says they departed at 12:41am and lost contact about two hours later at 2:40am. Looking at the Flight Aware estimated positions (at 1:42 since that data set has departure at 11:43am), they would have been flying above the mountains/jungles of south central Laos about that time, around 200Km due west of Da Nang, Vietnam. Not good news at all.

[LASJayhawk]

Man I hope this guy is correct.


Ridzuan Chan Abd Rzd Latest unofficial update. Landed in Nan Ming - cockpit electronics malfunction...yet to b confirmed.
11 · 8 minutes ago

[tcufroggie]

Reports now saying airline has begun notifying next of kin. Doesn't sound good.

So any reasons why the ads-b data would have cutout over an hour before they reported LOC to radar somewhere over Vietnam? (Beyond just spotty web based tracking tools...)

[RobertS975]

For the plane to have landed in the NanMing district of China, it would have had to traverse Laos, VietNam and several hundred miles of China. This simply seems unlikely as the Chinese have stated they have never tracked this flight.

[Towhee]

"The missing plane is believed to have been involved in a crash in August, 2012, when it damaged the tail of a China Eastern Airlines plane at Shanghai Pudong Airport, according to unconfirmed reports.

....in the incident, the tip of the wing of the Malaysia Air
lines Boeing 777 broke off..."

Malaysia Airlines plane missing with more than 200 passengers on board (http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia-airlines-plane-missing-with-more-than-200-passengers-on-board-20140308-hvgnx.html)

[camel]

Beijing-bound MAS plane carrying 239 people missing - The Malaysian Insider (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/authorities-activate-search-for-missing-beijing-bound-mas-b777)

[hawkerjet]

Correction:: Took off at 12:41; Lost contact at 2:40

[Gunnadothat]

Not sure why people are referring to Flight Aware... Flight Radar24 had the aircraft last position about halfway between the coast of Malaysia and the coast of Vietnam. Interestingly, following and preceding aircraft at the same route and level are in full coverage.

[NoseGear]

The airways from KL towards Beijing don't cross over Laos or Vietnam, they are mainly coastal routes that pass initially to the south of Vietnam, in the area of Con Son Island, and on up the coast towards the area of Guangzhou to connect to the airway up to Beijing. So, if they lost contact about 2hrs into the flight they would have been over water, albeit there does seem to be some confusion as to just when LOC occurred. If they went into the water, this would of course hamper any SAR response and could account for the lack of an ELT signal. Weather seems relatively benign, as it is this time of year, and of course, if it had landed anywhere, which it would have done by now, we would have heard. Also assuming no last minute contact with any ATC unit, I think it is sadly safe to assume that an immediate and non survivable incident has happened. :(

[flt001]

FR24 have just tweeted that they have good coverage in that area, with planes in contact all around where they 'should' have been. However ATC contact is not lost for another 1hr 20mins.

So either are something happened to the transponder at 17:20UTC which was part of a chain of events leading to loss of contact 1hr 40mins later OR this is unrelated transponder issue either onboard or with the ADS system FR use.

[1stspotter]

During the hours after the LAM Embraer flight was missing some rumours on Twitter said the aircraft landed safely.
I do not know the reputation on this source but i have my doubts. Atc should have been able to monitor the aircraft.

[hamia]

Chinese TV news still has the plane missing.

[barrel_owl]

Still unconfirmed, anyway:

Missing plane found safe. Cockpit comms malfunctioned | FZ : Malaysia News - General, Political, National, Business, World (http://www.fz.com/content/missing-plane-found-safe-cockpit-comms-malfunctioned)

PETALING JAYA (March 8): The missing Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200 has landed safely in China.

fz.com was informed by a source at the Emergency Response Team that the Beijing bound MH370 piloted by Capt Zahari Ahmad Shah had landed this morning at Nanming, Guazhou.

It had lost contact with the control tower at 2.40am, after taking off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) at 12.35am.

According to sources the plane’s transponder (cockpit communications system) had malfunctioned while over Vietnam airspace, causing the loss of communications.

[Hogger60]

At the two hour + mark, they would have been abeam VVTS or a bit north talking to HCM control. The route runs up to the coast past Hainan then they would crossed into China through VHHH.

[Load Toad]

If they were safely in the ground we'd know by now.

Come on people - think about it - a 777 landing at even a remote airfield - no radio messages, not one person having a working phone....

[DCP123]

Use FlightRadar24 and playback starting at about 17:15 UTC. MAS370 is the one sorta midway between Malaysia and the closest part of Vietnam. Its at 35,000 on heading 25 until 17:19 (01:19 local), then it goes to zero feet. Radar coverage is good in the area.

Where the plane is (generally) is not the question. What caused it to get there is the question. Sorry. That plane is not on the ground anywhere.

Also, airlines don't call next of kin if they think there's any hope.

[1stspotter]

Chinese state television reported that 160 Chinese nationals were onboard the flight.

One Russian citizen was among the passengers, ITAR-TASS news agency reported.
Also an unknown number of Australian citizen.
In total 13 nationalities were on board the flight.

[UberGroober]

It does seem extraordinary to me that Air Asia CEO Tony Fernandes referenced the "radio failure & safe landing in China" rumour on his twitter account. That seems very rash, IMHO. Beyond credulity to see how that can be true, sadly.

[ACT Crusader]

If they were safely in the ground we'd know by now.

Come on people - think about it - a 777 landing at even a remote airfield - no radio messages, not one person having a working phone....

Exactly. Some very irresponsible comments and reporting going on in social media. It is looking very grim however.

[1stspotter]

Pressconference delayed. Will start at top of hour.
MAS denied rumours of aircraft landing in China.

[Carbon Bootprint]

There is already a Wikipedia entry for MH370. It reports registration as 9M-MRO, delivered in 2002.

[1stspotter]

Malaysia Airlines VP tells CNN no distress call or problems reported from MH370 before disappearance, plane was at 35K ft

[aussiepax]

So a catastrophic event over water, with no time or ability to communicate, is what that may imply. Ominous.

[Username here]

I thought the press conference releasing flight crews names and hours was odd - considering they don't even know where the jet is...

CAPT 18,000 hours FO 2700.

[glendalegoon]

back last century a india 747 blew up over the atlantic canada to england, blamed sieks

always ask if the plane left on time , time bomb considerations

[1stspotter]

The two infants aboard MH370 are from China and the US. 38 Malaysians aboard the aircraft. Also 2 Canadians and one person from Austria. 3 adults from US.
152 from China, 12 Indonesia, 7 australia

[Just N Cider]

Apparently 7 Aussies

[Hogger60]

I thought the press conference releasing flight crews names and hours was odd - considering they don't even know where the jet is...

CAPT 18,000 hours FO 2700.

They released the names because the aircraft is down. They have already started S&R operations over the S China Sea.

Another press conference is set for 0500 GMT

[1stspotter]

Complete list of nationalities here BNO News -- Inbox (http://bnowire.com/inbox/?id=2220)

[iskyfly]

Not surprising that the whereabouts of the aircraft is unknown. ATC is one of the worst in that area.

[lurker999]

A following MAS flight (KUL-SVG) appeared to go off track crossing the coast of MY up to about the point that flightradar lost its signal and then turned back onto track past that point.

Maybe it was WX.

[Nil Einne]

I agree things are looking very dim.

That said I don't see the notification of next of kin says any more than the public announcement by the airline that they lost contact with the plane hours ago and a SAR has been launched. I don't know about standard practice but in this age of social media and quick spread of news, it seems unlikely any airline would want next of kin feeling you don't care. So the contact will begin soon after the announcement, if not before.

[vee1-rotate]

Chinese news reporting signal has been detected 120 miles southwest of Ca Mau province

https://twitter.com/chinaorgcn

[1stspotter]

This is a very reliable and fast source for news coverage
BNO News -- Inbox (http://bnowire.com/inbox/?id=2220)

[jdj5211]

IF that report is true, 120 miles SW of Ca Mau Province puts the aircraft in the water.

[dn88]

If the signal really has been detected 120 miles SW of Ca Mau it's a bit strange that the flight didn't lose contact until 02:40am, they're saying it took 2 hours from take-off to travel approx 400nm.

[yssy.ymel]

Chinese news reporting signal has been detected 120 miles southwest of Ca Mau province

I take it that by "signal" they mean either the ELT or the pingers from the black boxen. :(

I guess we wait and see. Very sad.

[EDIT: Does make sense - didn't look at the scale on the map]

[1stspotter]

Pretty shocking to see the complete passengerlist posted as photos on twitter including names and nationality.

[mclaren]

Hi, Looking at FR24, on the final seconds of the flight you can see the colour change (meaning alt) on MAS370. I do fear this is as we suspect :( It does look from this image though that it took 10nm to go from FL350 to nothing. So sad :-(

http://gyazo.com/db5c9c475f6d9110f5bf0ee629d7e410.gif

[flyaway777]

A following MAS flight (KUL-SVG) appeared to go off track crossing the coast of MY up to about the point that flightradar lost its signal and then turned back onto track past that point.

Maybe it was WX.

Looking at the Aviation Weather Centre satellite image from 0315 UTC there was no weather of any significance between KUL and the eastern coast of Vietnam.

http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat/intl/ir_ICAO-E_bw.jpg

[camber]

Flight radar indicates no MH 777's flying right now. They have a fleet of approx 16 -200's. Have the airline grounded the fleet?

[framer]

I imagine that Boeing will have their fingers crossed that it's not a similar malfunction of the ADIRU accelerometer that MAS had in a 777-200 out of Perth in 2005.
Does anyone know if there was a hardware fix for that?

[1stspotter]

I guess privacy does not matter in Malaysia. A screenshot showing names of crewmembers including captain and FO is on Twitter as well. Taken from MH crew application. Bizar.

[camel]

Ca Mau is on the southern most tip of Vietnam .120 SW of there is the Gulf of Thailand

[LandIT]

@camber - you can't have looked far. For example, MAS151 another 777-200 is nearing KL from Jeddah right now. Another one, MAS72, is half way to Hong Kong.

[DCP123]

DN88,

The location of the supposed "signal" is only strange if you assume that the airline's statement that they lost radar contact with the plane two hours into the flight is accurate. Publicly available radar information shows the plane disappear from radar at 17:19 UTC after departing at 16:43 UTC.

The place where it disappeared from radar corresponds fairly well with the location of the supposed "signal."

Frankly, I don't know what this signal is supposed to be. The last radar signal? If so, the area is right. The ELT? Not likely to be heard from the bottom of the ocean, is it? The pinger on the black box? Has anybody really gotten the right equipment to hear that into the crash area? If so, that's great. But, for now, until I hear a report that clearly states what is being discussed, I'm taking the report of signal with several grains of salt.

[mclaren]

I do wonder, if urthecast (in conjunction with NASA) could assist here. They have a live feed on the ISS (International Space Station) and this is soon to go live to the public, however it is currently live to them only while they fine tune the systems as they are going to be broadcasting this live on TV next weekend.

I digress. The ISS circles the earth every 90 minutes, and this camera can scan 90% of the earth in this time. Only parts it can't get are the poles. It is 1M resolution so can zoom in very close to earth, so much that it can see vehicles moving on the streets and pedestrians walking along the pavements.

If they have scanned this area (if they have this switched on), then perhaps this is data which could assist the NTSB and other SAR teams.

[1stspotter]

Very unlikely scenario but still. North Korea tested a missle which came close to a Chinese aircraft two days ago.

North Korea Missiles Passed Near China Southern Passenger Jet - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303824204579420623335971350?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702 303824204579420623335971350.html)

[youwantmetodowhat]

the speculation on CNN and on this site as to where the aircraft disappeared could be helped if the flight plan and its last reporting point was released. I've heard everything from East of Koto to North of Danang :ugh:

[djlynch]

I think we have to assume that the FlightAware data with the last position 20 minutes after takeoff is incomplete for some reason. FlightRadar (tweet (https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/442145510615289856)) shows it getting to at least the position 120 miles southwest of Ca Nau that has been reported elsewhere as a "signal".

[estuardo]

Vietnamese authorities now say the reports a signal had been detected were false. “We have been seeking but no signal from the plane yet,” Pham Hien, director of a Vietnam maritime search and rescue co-ordination centre in Vung Tau, told Reuters. “The information on local media about the signal near the Cape Ca Mau was inaccurate,” Pham said.

<From The Guardian>

[LapSap]

Can confirm MAS 777s are flying right now.

[Towhee]

How did that individual obtain the manifest?

[tvasquez]

You all may remember me as the meteorologist who worked up the case study on Air France 447 several years ago. I took a look at the data and as far as I can determine, the last ADS-B position was at N6.80 E103.52, 2014-03-07 17:21, with the plane flying at FL350 and with a TAS of 474 kt.

Unfortunately with it being night, we don't have the best satellite imagery to work with, but the 10.8 micron infrared is shown below, with the flight track superimposed. Looks like mostly clear skies with thin cirrus debris at FL400-500. The animation showed weakening of this cloud field. So it's very unlikely that weather was a factor. Flight level winds would have been roughly 010/15, and with only marginal instability it looks like it would have been a smooth ride.

http://i.imgur.com/IDDXTBY.jpg

I would plot out the whole intended route, but I don't have the information and I don't have good charts of the RNAV structure over Vietnam. However the weather across Vietnam and north to Hong Kong looked VFR all the way.

Looking at other flights crossing between Malaysia and Vietnam I saw no interruption of their ADS-B data. Unless there was a problem with the transponder or a FIR handoff it appears the plane may have actually gone down at this spot. If worse comes to worse, that area is on the continental shelf and in only 150 ft of water and it doesn't get much deeper, so if the plane was lost and the CVR/FDR is down there, it should be nothing like the AF447 search.

[eric900]

Yea, I found it kinda odd that they disclosed all the passengers' information, even the number of the identification document and the date of birth when all the passengers still haven 't been confirmed dead:ooh:

[1stspotter]

Beijing airport published the passengerlist by showing a print. Have seen photos now at websites and Twitter. Seems common in Asia.
Sad photos of shocked relatives at Beijing airport

[GunpowderPlod]

4.7073,102.5278 is NE of KL, still in Malaysia...

[1stspotter]

Yahoo singapore reports what we feared at post number 1
Vietnam media quote Navy Admiral Ngo Van Phat saying military radar recorded #MH370 crashing into sea 153 miles south of Phu Quoc island

Also other media reports
http://tuoitrenews.vn/society/18157/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-has-not-entered-vn-airspace-caav
And
http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraft-goes-missing--says-airline-023820132.html

[otech]

Yahoo Singapore's twitter reports wreckage has been found in ocean.

All sorts of reports going round though... so not sure how credible.

[paxrune]

Article says Vietnam Navy confirms crash

Vietnam Navy says Malaysia Airlines plane crashes off Tho Chu Island | Tu?i Tr? news (http://tuoitrenews.vn/society/18157/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-has-not-entered-vn-airspace-caav)

[thcrozier]

Regarding publication of names and details:

Yes, unlike in the United States, in most countries the media immediately publishes the graphic gruesome details including high quality video and photography of any tragic event. That is, unless it would have a political effect. I find that quality refreshing, in a twisted sort of way.

[The Dominican]

Ca Mau is on the southern most tip of Vietnam .120 SW of there is the Gulf of Thailand

I saw a flight track somebody posted on FB with that position but that would be 40 minutes and not 2 hours as they are reporting:confused:

[INTEL101]

BREAKING: "Vietnamese Navy has confirmed the plane crashed into the ocean."

Source: Vietnam media: Navy confirms flight MH370 crashed into the sea (http://bit.ly/O4s2bO) #MalaysiaAirlines #MH370

[Novezeil]

China No.1 leading official television CCTV has censored the No.84 record of the boarding list during boardcasting.

The image on twitter shows the name belongs to a muslim chinese who may came from Xinjiang where may have connection to the terrorist attack in Kunming several days ago. He's an artist, joined an artical conference at KL with 23 other artists from China.

[RatherBeFlying]

A lot depends on the marine search capabilities in the area. Beijing has the resources, but whether the Vietnamese want them in their waters is another question.

An aerial search may turn up debris; then you have to get a boat to pick it up.

Once debris is located, there will be a starting place to search for the pinger, but that equipment has to be brought in to the area.

Local fishermen might turn up something, but do they have radios?

[Australopithecus]

None of the reports coincide geographically with the initially reported lost contact two hours after take-off.

I wonder if the flight was due to make a position report at that time and hence it was the time when ATC reported it lost. i.e., sometime after the last radio transmission from the flight, but well after the time of impact.

[INTEL101]

UPDATE [12:37]: Tuoi Tre, a leading daily in Vietnam, reports that the Vietnamese Navy has confirmed the plane crashed into the ocean. According to Navy Admiral Ngo Van Phat, Commander of the Region 5, military radar recorded that the plane crashed into the sea at a location 153 miles South of Phu Quoc island.

UPDATE [11:32am]: VN Express, Vietnam's largest news site, reports that Vietnam Emergency Rescue Center just announced it has found signal of the missing plane at 9.50am 120 miles South West of Ca Mau cape, the Southern-most point of Vietnam.

The signal is believed to be the ELT (Emergency Locator Transmittor) , which can be activated manually by the flight crew or automatically upon impact.

[MountainBear]

I imagine that Boeing will have their fingers crossed that it's not a similar malfunction of the ADIRU accelerometer that MAS had in a 777-200 out of Perth in 2005. Does anyone know if there was a hardware fix for that? Framer. There was a software fix.

http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/24550/aair200503722_001.pdf

That's the report.

[Hempy]

It is all a little bit stinky here, unless there was some massive electrical failure I can't see how there was no voice call/CPDLC/ADSC emergency sent - unless it was all rather abrupt..

[deptrai]

A lot depends on the marine search capabilities in the area. Beijing has the resources, but whether the Vietnamese want them in their waters is another question.

An aerial search may turn up debris; then you have to get a boat to pick it up.

Once debris is located, there will be a starting place to search for the pinger, but that equipment has to be brought in to the area.

Local fishermen might turn up something, but do they have radios?

Very few fishermen have radios. Vietnamese Coast Guard has state of the art, very capable fast oceangoing SAR vessels. Vung Tau, not far from where to a/c reportedly crashed, is the centre of the offshore industry in VN; lots of helicopters there, large anchor handling tugs/supply ships with equipment for salvage etc.

[no sponsor]

9M-MRO fitted with Rolls Royce engines.

[KelvinD]

9M-MRO fitted with Rolls Royce engines
And the point is??

[Old King Coal]

Prior to contact being lost, which is reported as being just over 2 hours into the flight, along a route that typically takes 5½ hours to fly, the aircraft would therein be approaching it's halfway point along the route and that would (if it was following a great-circle track between KUL & PEK), logically, put it somewhere over the Gulf of Tonkin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin), it being an area of sea which is 300 miles (500 km) long, 150 miles (250 km) wide, and up to 230 feet (70 metres) deep.
That said, having just looked at the airway chart, they might well have been flying on airway M771, which would put them east/south-east of Hainan Island, over the South China Sea.

That might also fit with the report that the Chinese are reported to have launched two search vessels from harbours that are relatively close by to that same area.

http://www.dropbox.com/s/fz7y3r38775ijfs/MH370.PNG

[p.j.m]

Prior to contact being lost, the flight had been airborne for just over 2 hours

Seems to be a lot of conflicting information, but there are now at least 4 sources (including the Vietnamese navy) putting it in the ocean between Malaysia and Vietnam, barely 40 minutes into its flight.

http://i.imgur.com/uoLG4bp.jpg

UPDATE [11:32am]: VN Express, Vietnam's largest news site, reports that Vietnam Emergency Rescue Center just announced it has found signal of the missing plane at 9.50am 120 miles South West of Ca Mau cape, the Southern-most point of Vietnam.

The signal is believed to be the ELT (Emergency Locator Transmittor) , which can be activated manually by the flight crew or automatically upon impact.

not looking good unfortunately...

[RoyHudd]

Radio calls to ATC are the LAST thing you consider doing when faced with a major problem of any sort concerning the aircraft. People on the ground cannot usually help quickly.

Professionals adhere to a 3 step sequence....Aviate....Navigate....Communicate.

After all, what is the point of wasting essential time talking to people who are not in a position to help you.

(Sorry, ATC, you are essential in crowded and tricky environments, but not to immediately help with tech/weather/terrorist/passenger issues, mostly tech.)

So in a case like this, the CVR and FDR may give all the info needed to solve the questions. Radio calls may not.

[Edition12]

I don't mean to speak for others, but I would have thought from my reading that most of the radio call related comments were speculating that the abscence of comms are indicative of a situation where the tech crew definitely haven't had time to make a call - that is, they probably agree with you that the crew were at the beginning of AVIATE NAVIGATE COMMUNICATE.

That being said, I'm speculating on speculation and I dislike speculation at the best of times. Fingers crossed for good news from the search.

[Australopithecus]

Roy, if you are leaving your assigned altitude either in or out of controlled flight would you not consider a mayday call? Granted there may be many compelling things to do first, like donning O2 masks etc.

However, the absence of data from the transponder, data link, ACARS, Vox etc all point to a sudden catastrophic event.

[Hempy]

Radio calls to ATC are the LAST thing you consider doing when faced with a major problem of any sort concerning the aircraft. People on the ground cannot usually help quickly.

Professionals adhere to a 3 step sequence....Aviate....Navigate....Communicate.

After all, what is the point of wasting essential time talking to people who are not in a position to help you.

(Sorry, ATC, you are essential in crowded and tricky environments, but not to immediately help with tech/weather/terrorist/passenger issues, mostly tech.)

So in a case like this, the CVR and FDR may give all the info needed to solve the questions. Radio calls may not.

That is all fair and true, but over the ocean and going down 'aviate' and 'navigate' become somewhat redundant... Logic would suggest a 'come find us' of some sort would cross one of their minds. Unless, like I said, opportunity wasn't presented from FL350 down..

[nitpicker330]

The departure time quoted in the media was most likely pushback time. Airborne time would be 15 to 30 mins later.

On today's flight plan it's about 1:00 flight time from WMKK to the VVTS FIR boundary at DUDIS and another 1:10 to the Sanya FIR at DONDA. So after 2:10 mins flying time they would be in Chinese airspace.

So it must have occurred just before they entered Sanya?

That's assuming they used M771 which they normally do.

[thcrozier]

@deptrai:


That's probably right. I was unaware of offshore oil exploration in Vietnam until I read about it in last month's Journal of Petroleum Technology. It's quite extensive, which means there are probably a lot of state-of-the-art deep water robots nearby, and hopefully up to date mapping of the sea floor. Maybe even seismic sensors.

[nitpicker330]

John, I fly that route on a regular basis and communication with ATC is good.
VHF is available for most of the time. The 777 would also have been established on CPDLC data link using ADS-C connection with VVTS. ( unless it was u/s )
There is only a small time spent on HF and even then the HF quality with Singapore is excellent most of the time.

If this happened in Vietnam airspace as posted then they would have been on VHF with Hochiminh and identified on radar.

I'm guessing as we all are but something catastrophic must have happened for the crew not to have said something to someone.

[Hogger60]

Agreed. Especially with HCM control. Spent many nights trying to get them to answer any radio call with little success, especially that time of night, and their CPDLC can be spotty. They very easily could have flown for a while with no radio contact with HCM.

[Hogger60]

Nitpicker, I will pick the Nit with you here. There are some nights flying along at 0300 along M771 when HCM is darned near impossible to get hold of on either 120.7 or 133.05, and CPDLC can be down. Maybe better during the daylight hours.

[nitpicker330]

Hogged--- I've been flying in and around VVTS airspace for 25 years now and can honestly say the number of times I had trouble getting through would be able to be counted on one hand.

In the last 5 years I've connected to CPDLC on every flight ok and spoken to VVTS CTL without problem day or night.

I don't know what you are on about?

Now of you'd like to talk about Yangon......there IS a problem there..

[Andu]

I haven't trolled through all the other posts, so apologies if this point has been covered before.

Having flown that route many times myself, (and in a 777, not that that has anything to do with it), I'd be very surprised to find there were not quite a large number of eye (or at least ear) witnesses to the aircraft hitting the sea. The number of fishing boats in those waters beggars belief. Overflying that area at night, there are so many fishing boats, each with a light, you could be forgiven for thinking you were overflying a huge city.

If I'm correct, it will probably be a day or two before any such eye/ear witnesses return to port.

[Hogger60]

Nitpicked, last week no CPDLC, and couldn't talk to them on 133.05. They couldn't hear us, though we could spottily hear them. Not the only flight having the problem that night. Week before again no CPDLC, though the radios were fine. I find that during the last year there are nights when there are radio problems, all I am saying.

[nitpicker330]

Ok fair enough.

Andu---Good point about the fishing boats, there are thousands of the coast of Vietnam. Maybe one did see something??

[MainDude]

This is the ADSB information from FlightRadar24

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By2H_61RvkllSDRnNzhoNU8xUUU/edit?usp=sharing

[Hempy]

Nitpicked, last week no CPDLC, and couldn't talk to them on 133.05. They couldn't hear us, though we could spottily hear them. Not the only flight having the problem that night. Week before again no CPDLC, though the radios were fine. I find that during the last year there are nights when there are radio problems, all I am saying.

In all fairness, losing comms is one thing, but losing comms AND losing the track off the satellite is another

[camel]

news conference:

the search is concentrating on the last area of radar contact, over the sea,at 1.30 am, 120 nm east of kota bharu(malaysia).that area would be south/west of vietnam.in the gulf of thailand.

[SalNichols94807]

If you check out the tropospheric propagation forecast page, unstable VHF/UHF comms around Viet Nam shouldn't be a surprise.

[KrispyKreme]

Just thought of something, does the b777 on this leg carry fuel in the centre tank? Could we be possibly looking at a TWA explosion again? Just no time to make any calls etc...

[nitpicker330]

The 777's MH use do have centre tanks fitted. Most if not all the 7 hours fuel would have been in the wing tanks.

[KrispyKreme]

Nitpicker330, so more than likely a little fuel left in the centre, hence could have the correct air/fuel mixture, SOP at my work is to remove all fuel from the centre and some of the aircraft I work on now employ nitrogen generation systems.

Anyhow just speculations

[eztempo]

You mean that captains trained to fly by computer may not catch obvious trouble (thinking San Francisco)?

[glendalegoon]

krispy kreme. regarding fuel tank. while Idon't fly the 777, I do recall that the TWA explosion was around 13,000' and the ullage was a factor due to temps, being at35000 it would be nice and cool.


HOWEVER any explosion could damage the cable between the cockpit and the transmitter and or antenna. Thus any attempt at communication might not work.

for those mentioning fuel exhaustion or starvation, it should be noted at 777 at FL350 should easily be able to glide in excess of 100 miles (zero wind).

On tV someone reminded me of the BAE146 operated by the then PSA in which an angry employee got aboard with a gun and shot the pilots and the plane crashed into the ground in california sort of near paso robles. no radio call there.

[parabellum]

Even if ATC had not picked up an emergency call there are enough North and South bound aircraft as well as West bound aircraft at that time of night and surely one of these would have picked up the call. Do MAS allow bulk carriage of Lithium batteries on their a/c?

[p.j.m]

#PrayForMH370: Relatives told to come to KLIA with valid passports (http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraft-goes-missing--says-airline-023820132.html)

UPDATE [3:03pm]: At KLIA, the brother of a passenger says relatives are being told to bring a valid passport because they need to 'travel to the crash site'. Relatives have to be at KLIA before 6pm with valid passports for MAS to make 'travel arrangements'.

[Australopithecus]

Lithium batteries: I just bought some very high powered ones. They came interstate by post in a cheap box without any warnings or special handling labels. I suspect that they are in our aeroplanes a lot more than we think.

I imagine a cargo fire would at least give a few minutes of alarm, especially in a modern aircraft with cargo fire detection.

[spongenotbob]

This site (New Straits Times) seems to have the most real-time coverage, nearly minute-by-minute updates:

New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/)

Latest:

- Massive search ongoing in the South China Sea
- Contact lost at 2.40 am Malay time, 2 hours into the flight

[freshgasflow]

Hello and at outset , I need to say I am not an aviation professional. I would be grateful, if someone can succinctly explain to those of us non professionals, how the ELT would work, with reference to the B 777.

i.e.

Where is it located?
What triggers it ?
In the case of ocean crash, as the AC or its debris sinks, does the ELT detach and float ? If so, how does it detach ? E.g. is it a solenoid like mechanism etc.
What is the ELT signal ? Is it low frequency or high frequency ?
What position information does it give ? Or is there no position signal, and one needs to use triangulation to find it?

Any other info would be great. Thank you in advance.

[777boyo]

We entered HCM FIR last night westbound at FL340, passing Moxon (the boundary with WSJC) at about 1720Z, transitted HCM and Phnom Penh and exited, passing overhead PNH at about 1810Z.

We experienced no problem with VHF Comms with HCM Centre, and VVTS CPDLC/ADS also worked fine. We encountered no adverse wx - in fact it was a beautiful clear NE monsoon night, though there was some limited scattered lightning visible way off to the SW.

121.5 was congested, with both HCM Centre and another MH flight trying to contact MH370. HCM Centre were also making repeated attempts to contact the aircraft on the normal Centre frequency.

[DaveReidUK]

Publicly available radar information shows the plane disappear from radar at 17:19 UTC after departing at 16:43 UTCTo state that the aircraft "disappeared" from "publicly available radar" is virtually (npi) meaningless.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar

[thcrozier]

@Freshgasflow

Start here: NOAA - Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking - Emergency Beacons (http://www.sarsat.noaa.gov/emerbcns.html)

[freshgasflow]

The reason I am asking this forum about the ELT is that Google gives a huge amount of nonspecific information on ELT. This forum has experts who can tailor the information specifically to the B 777.

Let me add another question. What type of crash / situation will make a ELT signal not be detected ? I.e it is designed to with stand ground impact ? and designed to float , so shouldn't it "always" work in a crash ?

[skytrax]

Any speculations in regards to what happened to this aircraft are non sense at this point in time. Wait at least until they find it. As per now, the aircraft is considered missing, they can only change the status to crashed after they locate it. Don't go about assuming of what it might had happened because many out there are gonna use these speculations in the wrong way. Think about the families of the ones involved.
A very sad day for us working in the same industry and not only.

P.S. B777 has several beacons. The ELT is designed to start emitting once is submerged. But wait, as I said, we dont even know for sure if the plane hit the water. They only know that it lost contact above the sea.

[Flyingmole]

Why is it meaningless to say Publicly Available Radar? And why do airlines and airports not (i) go to FlightRadar24 (ii) move the map to the Malaysia arae (iii) pit "MA" into the filters to track only Malaysian aircraft (iv) go to the 'Playback' control and set it for 16.45 hrs 07.03.2014 and (v) watch a reply of the tragedy as MH370 is tracked flying North until at 17.23 GMT at 6.97 Latitude and 103.63 Longitude it disappears from the screen. Can anyone tell me why, when it took me just five minutes to do the above, that nobody in search & rescue, the airlines, the airports or the press seem able to cotton on to the fact that all this inof is out there, just waiting to be accessed?

[thcrozier]

Gasflow: Your question has various answers. You might be better off asking at the Tech Forum.


Anyway, here is one ELT approved for installation in the 777:


Artex B406 Boeing Emergency Locator Transmitter | ACR ARTEX (http://www.acrartex.com/products/catalog/elts-commercialmilitary/b406-4/)


There also "pingers" which are supposed to send out a signal from the FDR and the CVR if they are submerged in water.

[CaptainEmad]

Gasflow,

The Artex B406-4 Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT) system consists of the ELT transmitter installed in the aft overhead cabin adjacent to the ELT antenna on the upper aft fuselage. Connected to the ELT transmitter is a programming dongle. Finally, a Remote Switch is installed in the cockpit to control the ELT system.

The ELT automatically activates during a crash and transmits the standard swept tone on 121.5 and 243.0 MHz. It also transmits a 406 MHz encoded digital message.

ActivationAutomatic by 4.5 feet per second (2.3 G) Primary G-Switch or Manual https://www.cobham.com/media/185117/g406-4%20description,%20operation,%20installation%20and%20mainten ance%20manual.pdf


It stays with the airframe. Have a read of the AF447 thread...:E
Try google.com. It is a search engine.

[nitpicker330]

Flight Radar24 is a compilation of unofficial personal receivers out in the world placed into one website in Russia for us all to watch. Whilst I love the App and use it frequently It doesn't cover all of the planet and is unreliable.

Remember ADS-B transmit receive data is "line of sight" and maybe, just maybe the data you are watching comes to an end because MH 370 moved out of sight of the receiver Flight Radar24 use in that part of the World.

"Not to be used for navigation" or proof of....

[FlyingTinCans]

Flyingmole,
FlightRadar24 may give you the impression it's an accurate radar tracking service, it's not.

It's not regulated, it can be highly inaccurate and is not used for any official purpose, it's nothing more than a grown ups toy

[ARNSpoty]

Flew in the same vicinity yesterday (07/02 - 2150LT as crew) and surprisingly the smoothest one so far, not at all sign wx

[StormyKnight]

@nitpicker330 You may be right but in my experience, the ALT doesn't drop to zero before the signal is lost. The signal transmitted is digital, i.e. it sends a value. I'm not sure however on the degree of error correction used in the signal for decoding or determining a valid transmission. And I might point out my experience is with planes going out of range, not those having some sort of problem which results is the signal stopping.

Also Flightradar & similar services do not use RADAR...they use a digital signal transmitted by the plane which contains the GPS location, speed & altitude plus the Callsign details. The digital data is decoded to reveal the GPS location of the plane as determined by the GPS on the plane. In my opinion this is very accurate...as accurate as a GPS can be...+- 10m horizontal?

[LapSap]

nitpicker330 is one of the few speaking any sense here.

He is correct when he says the route was most probably via M771 which is basically over water the whole way until Hong Kong. Possible it could have been via DAN A1. Haven't seen the FPL.


As he and others have said, basing assumptions of crash location on publically available, incomplete surveillance data is just non-sensicle.

That said nitpicker, the data I saw seemed to stop abruptly right at TOC. Virtually the same update infact.

Is there any action you carry out regularly virtually right at TOC? eg switch tfr pumps on/off etc?? Just wondering.
Any thing else that could trigger a catastrophic failure just at TOC? Pwr reduction/engine disintegration?

[mickjoebill]

We experienced no problem with VHF Comms with HCM Centre, and VVTS CPDLC/ADS also worked fine. We encountered no adverse wx - in fact it was a beautiful clear NE monsoon night, though there was some limited scattered lightning visible way off to the SW.


777Boyo,
Thanks for a very pertinent report, on Friday March 7th the (1/2 moon) set at Kuala Lumpur at 22.39hrs local time, none the less, could you define the horizon?

[Australopithecus]

Flight Radar24 ADS data is still dependant on enthusiasts being in range with proper equipment. Can you see other flight tracks in the area? ( I am not going to pay to look)

I can watch FR24 targets near me wiggle around and sometimes jump 20 miles in a second. I think its a useful gizmo, but not for forensics.

[SiriuslyCold]

newbie here.

I'm wondering why no one has remarked on FlightAware's ADS-B data further down the page (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370/history/20140306/1635Z/WMKK/ZBAA/tracklog), where it's picked up at 22.3598, 114.0461 by the receiver at VHSK?

[StormyKnight]

Just putting this out there...possibly related technical question.
If the GPS for the ADS-B lost power OR lost connection to the ADS-B transmitter, would the ADS-B still transmit an altitude of zero feet or can it transmit that it has invalid data due to no GPS connection?

[dk88]

After 15 hours Malaysia Airlines PR confirms that #MH370 disappeared near last Flightradar24 position and not "after 2 hours of flight"

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/442222070727204864

[Australopithecus]

1. It does not use GPS altitude information.
2. There are at least two GPS receivers
3. In the event of GPS signal compromise there is still inertial position data via the FMS

[p.j.m]

Flight Radar24 ADS data is still dependant on enthusiasts being in range with proper equipment

Others have mentioned that other aircraft prior to and after MH370 were tracked their entire flightpath between Malaysia and Vietnam. I don't believe there is a lack of coverage from the ADSB receivers in the area.

Also the data from FR24 pretty much exactly lines up with that published by MAS, and other sources such as the Vietnamese Navy.

MH370 Flight Incident | Malaysia Airlines (http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html)
The last known position of MH370 before it disappeared off the radar was 065515 North (longitude) and 1033443 East (latitude).

MAS does not indicate what type of radar their data comes from.

It would see that all that remains to be seen is whether the aircraft crashed there (as the additional altitude data from FR24 seems to indicate) or whether that was where the electronics ceased working.

[Squawk_ident]

Observing FR24 the latest ADSB transmission of the MAS370 is at 6.97N 103.63E at FL350. At this time the aircraft is over IGARI 6.94N 103.58E on the R208 at heading 25. Seems that MAS370 was cleared direct IGARI because slightly offtrack. IGARI is the last WPT before the FIR boundary WSJC Singapore / VVTS HoChiMinh. At 1720z, over IGARI, a right turn is initiated to BITOD to join the M765 as per FPL I presume.
The mag course between IGARI and BITOD is 059°. The last adsb transmission of the aircraft is 40 deg precisely during this right turn. Flight level remains unchanged but becomes 0ft as the turn is initiated.
Closest aircraft in the vicinaty of the MAS370 is the CES539 at FL360 6.03N 104.96E from PVG to KUL on the L642.

[spongenotbob]

That said nitpicker, the data I saw seemed to stop abruptly right at TOC. Virtually the same update infact.

Is there any action you carry out regularly virtually right at TOC? eg switch tfr pumps on/off etc?? Just wondering.
Any thing else that could trigger a catastrophic failure just at TOC? Pwr reduction/engine disintegration? Now that's an insightful post. I noticed the same thing, ~1000 fpm climb up to 35,000 ft, ONE more position report at 35,000 ft, then nothing.

What would a typical MAS flight crew on a routine 777 flight do immediately upon reaching TOC?

11:57AM 4.2042 102.2904 25° Northeast 472 543 30,000 1,200 http://e1.flightcdn.com/images/live/arrow_up.gif http://e0.flightcdn.com/images/live/fasource.gif FlightAware ADS-B (http://flightaware.com/adsb/) (WMSA / SZB)
12:01PM 4.7015 102.5251 25° Northeast 468 539 35,000 960 http://e1.flightcdn.com/images/live/arrow_up.gif http://e0.flightcdn.com/images/live/fasource.gif FlightAware ADS-B (http://flightaware.com/adsb/) (WMKP / PEN)
12:02PM 4.7073 102.5278 25° Northeast 468 539 35,000 http://e1.flightcdn.com/images/live/blank12x13.gif http://e0.flightcdn.com/images/live/fasource.gif FlightAware ADS-B (http://flightaware.com/adsb/) (WMKP / PEN)

[StormyKnight]

@Australopithecus Correct, however the underlying data will be precise, the web site smooths out the flight paths & attempts to predict where a plane is until it gets an update...often aircraft seem to overshoot the runway, only to latter after an update to their location have their position & track corrected.

However once in cruise...with constant airspeed & heading, the depicted map position will be quite accurate. The location, airspeed, heading details for an aircraft are the actual details from the aircraft. You will notice the aircraft moves but these details do not update. The website is calculating where the plane is to give the impression of more regular updates, but it doesn't change the numerical details withe these calculations. It only updates those with the raw (true) data from the plane itself.

[p.j.m]

Emergency rescue message to all vessels near by to assist on all aircraft #MH370 pic.twitter.com/WS6ZYReQal

http://i.imgur.com/ikl7rNi.jpg

all seems to point to the same location

http://i.imgur.com/eKzlqEY.jpg

[underfire]

gasflow, there is also the 'pinger' is part of the 'black box' which is located near the top of the fuselage back near the beginning of the tail section. It is meant to survive an incident...

[SteinarN]

I also wonder about the damage sustained in 2012 where a part of the wing got cut off. Do anyone know where it could be possible to get more information about the extent of that damage, specifically how many meters of the wing was cut off?

[The Rage]

Flight was transfered to HCM at position IGARI. But they never called. Comms and radar contact was lost in that area. Wx in the area was clear. Light chops at Fl370 and Fl390. clear wx all across vietnam. Lights across the country were vissible.
What ever happened, was very sudden. Accars data was lost at same time. Indicating a possible breakup in flight.
Both countries are fully capable of having SAR vessels in the area by lunch or early afternoon. News of wreakage should start to come in soon. The area in concern is covered by both countries military radars. Excact position would not be too difficult to locate.

[Cross Check]

120nm SW of Cape Ca Mau would put the aircraft around IGARI - BITOD joining M765 - coincides with the handoff from Lumpur to HoChiMin. Water depth around there is 50-60m give or take so recovery won't be so difficult (compared to say Adam Air years back). Apparently water in flow/out flow from the Gulf of Thailand isn't that fast so drift isn't a major issue either. Based on that, wreakage will be reasonably contained depending on the sea state. There's a gas-rig platform in the area (Bunga Kekwa A), who knows some survivors might be lucky.

[Hempy]

Is there full -B coverage on that route or do they switch to contract? If it goes to contract the standard reporting rate is 15 min.

[Bobman84]

I also wonder about the damage sustained in 2012 where a part of the wing got cut off. Do anyone know where it could be possible to get more information about the extent of that damage, specifically how many meters of the wing was cut off?

Equally curious. Catastrophic wing failure explains a few things and has happened before, but one would imagine very unlikely these days?

Hopefully more factual information with regards to the aircraft's confirmed fate comes from the search and rescue team in due course.

[threemiles]

Factual:

ADS-B position data is coming directly from airplanes. There is nothing like inaccuracy, although position quality may be less than RNP-1 for certain airframe/equipment combinations.

Bashing this system is nonsense when it is the only source of data that is available at this time.

FR 24 is not a Russian website, but Swedish and well reputated in my eyes.

More factual:

Aircraft disappeared at 17:22Z from FR24. This may be due to
a) lack of further transmissions for whatever reason
b) failure of ground receiver, however other aircraft where continued to be received
c) failure of FR24 network and server processing

Aircraft had just passed IGARI waypoint and turned right from track 025. Last reported track was 040. If it was to follow M765 it should have turned to heading 058 (can't say what track, don't know variation in the area), but there may be direct routing by VVTS involved. Others flying there will know more.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/se1myn0lvjmd7u7/igari.jpg

Last reported FR24 position is N6.97 E 103.63
This equals to N6 58' 11.99" E103 37' 47.99"

FR24 data shows the following sequence (note that ADS-B sends positione about 1 per second, but FR24 consolidates these data to about 1 per minute. Further visible movements of the aircraft are due to FR24 forecast algorithm)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/q15ip8rwr6mgj9x/mas370.avi

UTC LAT LONG GS TT FL

17:13 6.00 103.14 472 025 350

17:15 6.13 103.20 472 025 350

17:15 6.24 103.26 472 025 350

17:16 6.36 103.31 472 025 350

17:17 6.48 103.37 472 025 350

17:18 6.58 103.41 472 025 350

17:19 6.68 103.46 472 025 350

17:20 6.80 103.52 472 025 350

17:21 6.93 103.59 471 040 0

17:22 6.97 103.63 471 040 0


Indication of an altitude of 0 may result from a variety of circumstances depending of the type of Mode-S/ADS-B packet received. FR24 will likely know more because it has much more packets and the type of packets received.

[SOPS]

Rage...how do you know ACARS data was lost at that point. Or are you speculating?

[onetrack]

The Bunga Kekwa A gasfield, in the PM3-CAA block is certainly in the right spot to have seen the aircraft go down - but how many staff would have been on duty in the wee small hours, and would they have been looking in the right direction?
There must be communications between Bunga Kekwa A and the mainland - surely some information would have come in by now from the platform, if they'd seen anything?

This is certainly a strange and puzzling incident, particularly with the B777's superb accident record. Then again, so was the AF-447 crash a total puzzle.
The major difference this time, it's a Boeing, not a Bus. I can't help but suspect major pilot error/incapacitation here.


http://images.energy365dino.co.uk/standard/104800_8bd45fb117d04f58a1cd.jpg

[underfire]

Given the ADSB system on an aircraft, I would doubt reliability on continued broadcast during an event.

[FlyingTinCans]

threemiles,
FR24 is not the only source of data available at this time, it's the only source of PUBLIC available data.

I'm not 'bashing' just trying to highlight to the less informed that a search & rescue operation will not solely be based on an App you can download on your phone that is run from an unregulated company with the help of enthusiasts and hobbyists.
It is a great little graphical tool and I know some of my colleagues wives use it to know when to put the dinner on, anything more than that is just speculation

[Al Murdoch]

Image of wing damage:

http://pic.feeyo.com/posts/569/5691311.html

[ManaAdaSystem]

FR24 could be correct, but it could be way off as well. I have seen position shifts and track shifts over Europe many times. It is useful as information only, not proof.
But 0 altitude is 0 altitude, and that is where MH 370 is right now.
A catastrophic failure of some kind. Bomb, terrorist attack or structural failure.
I think they should start looking at the documentation for the wing repair. It would not be the first time a botched repair brought down an airliner, but I'm baffled by the complete lack of communication.

The 777 does send maintenance reports home to base when something goes wrong?

[HotDog]

If that is what the Vietnamese Navy Admiral has quoted, looks like that is it. Why for God's sake? This is bad, bad, bad. Bad for aviation, bad for Malaysian Airlines. And if this politicised (and you can almost be sure it will be, reengineering done in foreign ports) even before they know why, I will be writing a letter to my MP (Labor) and will want to know why.


Ida, you are presuming maintenance error by an off shore facility that the average Australian who is convinced that no other nationality is capable of proper maintenance of hundreds of thousand aircraft operating outside Australia. Good luck with your letter to your (Labor) MP. Please post his reply if you get one, shouldd be good for a laugh!

[StormyKnight]

Picture of wing tip on "other involved aircraft"

http://i6.hexunimg.cn/2012-08-09/144577673.jpg

[underfire]

3miles,

FR24 is just a group of people with ADS-B recievers that feed the system...you may have 400 covering an area or 1...

Manadasytem, yes, 777 can be equipped to be monitored by Boeing Center real time..

[Flightmech]

Should be sending messages as routine via Boeing AHM. You can configure this down to virtually tell you every time the lab is flushed if you want to pay the extra.

[DXBWannabe]

Looking at the damage that was done to the right wing, I'm wondering how the plane was allowed to keep flying. How can you even fix the wing when that much damage has been done to it? I'd love to hear some input from maintenance guys and what they think of the situation.

[Capt Groper]

There are thousands of fishing boats in this part of the world so somebody should easily spot any wreckage.
In some locations you can imagine walking from boat to boat...

[Heathrow Harry]

Well its all we have right now in the public domain so we can use it but be mindful of the possible problems

As for anyone on the platform seeing something I'd have thought it unlikely - especially at night anyone working will be inside or heads down at their work. Better bet might be any safety or supply vessel in the area

But unless there was a fire it would just be a dark piece (s) of metal so not likely. Should be easier in daylight

Should be able to find the FR failry quickly - this should be a lot faster than the AF crash to resolve

[fly123456]

Any idea of how much fuel they'd carry for such a flight?
I suppose no fuel in the centre tank?

[Flyingmole]

As I seem to have stirred the proverbial by daring to refer to FR24 as a source of data, I'd like to make a point or two. (i) I get the strong impression that because it is not 'official' , many 'flying' people pooh-pooh it. (ii) While FR24 may indeed not be 100% reliable, a simple check in the sky (i.e look at plane, check with FR24, see if what it says correlates with Mk I eyeball) indicates that it is pretty reliable. (iii) When there is a terrible disaster and a total absence of 'official' information, is it not sensible to at least pay heed to whatever information is available and to rapidly check it out? As as example of 'official' versus 'unofficial', yesterday I checked into LHR to wait for a delayed EY to arrive and take me to AUH (fog plus no runway lights had previously shut AUH). On duty Etihad staff at LHR had no idea where the two incomings were: I was able to accurately tell them of their ETA simply by having a dekko at FR24. "Well, you know more than I do, sir!" said the EY chap. FR24's prediction was spot on. QED

[Chutchada]

ToC may be a suitable time to switch on the centre tank fuel pumps to recover the fuel which could have migrated there during the climb?

[Commuting Pilot]

I can't help but suspect major pilot error/incapacitation here.

Incapacitation would have left the aircraft flying along at the last flight level and if LNAV engaged, then on the planned track. Any major event, such as decompression, that occurred to the aircraft would have been picked up by MAS Ops via ACARS.

Pilot error? After 2hrs plus and at FL350 the aircraft would have certainly been on autopilot. What error could they have made that resulted in the aircraft being lost?

Aircraft do not just suddenly fall out of the sky without some huge catastrophic event occurring. No radio calls at all were allegedly received (maritime operations monitor 121.5 too) and I am sure that slowly the events will be pieced together and a conclusion will be made.

It's extremely sad to read this morning's news and my thoughts are with everyone directly involved and affected by this incident.

[boxerpilot]

Li-ion perhaps. Burns fast

[momo95]

Fairly experienced crew, according to Malaysian officials the captain had 18365 hours.

[nick murry]

All you will see from the 777 at TOC is a thrust reduction and depending on SOPs turning off the exterior lights.. Whatever happended happend sudden. Eg bomb or possible pilot suicide. Pilot error in cruise is virtually non existant. Who knows, one of the pilots might of gone to the loo after reaching TOC.. Pure speculation. A very sad day

[snowfalcon2]

I'm puzzled. It's now approx 18:30 local KL time and sun sets in 1 hour. Local weather seems favourable for searching, the search area seems to be fairly well defined and there appears to be good radar coverage in the area to have it pinpointed. Still, no credible reports of traces after almost one full day's search - no oil slick, debris etc. reported so far.

OK, the sea crossing is some 200-250 NM so it is a sizeable piece of water and the middle parts may be beyond helicopter range. But it's not in the middle of the ocean either.

Hope we get clarity soon.

[SOPS]

Please stop rubbish speculation. 777 uses automatic scavenge pumps in the centre tanks. Fuel does not "mitigate " to the centre tank during climb. Please stop making stuff up.

[Bobman84]

Missing MAS 777-200 had uneventful history - 3/8/2014 - Flight Global (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/missing-mas-777-200-had-uneventful-history-396793/)

Missing MAS 777-200 had uneventful history
By: GREG WALDRON SINGAPORE Source: 16 hours ago
The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER bearing registration 9M-MRO was delivered in 2002, and had an incident free history prior to disappearing on 8 March while operating the Kuala Lumpur-Beijing sector.

Journalists eh? FlightGlobal at that.

He must have forgotten about the wing incursion incident.

[henra]

The major difference this time, it's a Boeing, not a Bus. I can't help but suspect major pilot error/incapacitation here.


What should the pilot have done to achieve this? Do you assume they were manually flying aerobatics at that point in time, when they were suddenly incapaciated during the maneuver???

You can safely assume they were on Autopilot before this (whatever it was) occured.

What happened then will hopefully be answered by the FDR/CVR.
At the moment nothing can be really ruled out.
Structural failure (e.g. incorrect repair of wingtip?)
Failure to mind the store while AP disengaged/did strange things.
Explosive device.
CWT explosion.
Suicide.
FCS problem.
x other scenarios.
Although some might be more likely than others.
We will know for sure when they found and analysed the recorders.
Until then I'm afraid the only thing which might become clearer somewhat sooner is if it disintegrated at altitude, once the wreckage has been found.

[Worldwidew]

3 Italian Sources to confirm that passenger Luigi Maraldi was not on flight as stated by the passenger manifesto.

Is there foul play suspected here??? An aircraft disappearing out of the sky .... smells of foul play.

Luigi called his parents from Thailand to tell them he was safe on the ground and was never on the flight.

Sources:

Aereo scomparso in Malaysia, mistero su Luigi Maraldi: non era a bordo ma chi è salito con il suo passaporto? (http://www.meteoweb.eu/2014/03/aereo-scomparso-in-malaysia-mistero-su-luigi-maraldi-non-era-a-bordo-ma-chi-e-salito-con-il-suo-passaporto/267991/)

Aereo Malaysia Airlines caduto in Vietnam, Luigi Maraldi chiama casa: 'non ero sull'aereo' | The Horsemoon Post (http://www.horsemoonpost.com/2014/03/08/aereo-della-malaysia-airlines-disperso-tra-la-malesia-e-la-cina-attivate-le-procedure-sar/)

Aereo Malaysian scompare in mare. 239 a bordo. Paura per italiano ma è vivo | Blitz quotidiano (http://www.blitzquotidiano.it/cronaca-mondo/aereo-malaysian-scompare-in-mare-239-a-bordo-anche-litaliano-luigi-maraldi-1810638/)

He reported his passport stolen in Thailand on August 1 2013

The flight manifesto:

http://images.says.com/uploads/story_source/source_image/262264/1d61.jpg

He was clearly on the passenger list. Now the question becomes... who was using his passport?

And is this foul play connected to the aircraft disappearance?

[737Jock]

I know my airline has a huge screen (can see it from the entire room) with FR24 in their ops center to simply track the entire fleet. They also have weather overlay addons with it (radar, colour coding airports etc)

I would definitely rate it a bit higher then an enthusiasts tool.

[Super VC-10]

Another photo of the wing damage sustained by 9M-MRO -

?????????????????? - ???? - ??? (http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2012-08/10/c_123564158.htm)

[On_The_Top_Bunk]

Any nautical people have any idea of water depth in the approximated area of the last position?

Will crash recovery be hampered by depth?

[Top_Cat]

Bathymetry Data Viewer | ngdc.noaa.gov (http://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/bathymetry/)

Roughly 100m depth.

[GlueBall]

ALL references to the Perth in-flight upset incident involve ANOTHER airframe.

9M-MRG

[Heathrow Harry]

check the earlier posts - not very deep at all apparently

[DaveReidUK]

All references to the wing-tip damage incident at Shanghai Pudong involve ANOTHER airframe. Sorry, that's rubbish.

http://pic.feeyo.com/pic/20120810/201208100956203830.jpg

[Edmund Spencer]

Most civil aircraft reach top of climb approximately 30 minutes after take off, give or take. (Depending on ATC restrictions A/C weight etc)
This aircraft had, apparently, been airborne for a couple of hours, so well into the cruise.
From my experience out of WMKL you are usually pretty close to TOC as you coast out from the east coast of the Malaysian peninsula, depending on the hand over from KL to Singapore ATC.
These guys are quite good and you normally get your requested/filed level shortly after crossing the coast.
This, undoubtedly, sounds like a massive and rapid catastrophic disaster which completely overcame the crew before they could even announce anything on the radio.
Bomb, airframe failure, oxygen, cockpit incursion, meteor strike, something highly, highly unusual for this modern aircraft to simply fall out of the sky and disappear?

[HeathrowAirport]

Isn't Malaysia extremely tight on security, along with Beijing bound aircraft checked NSA style by the Chinese Government? I'm no expert in Security but Aviation Terror incidents are not easy, but not impossible for those flights. More importantly why would a terrorist target that city pair.

It is intriguing that the aircraft has been involved with a structural incident In the past; but I'm pretty sure that part of the 777 wing is just aerodynamic and not mainly structural integrity. I suspect wing box and spars were replaced in any repair job. G-BNLL had similar damaged and flew happily - before doing it again.

The fact Boeing tweeted waiting for news reports suggests even they don't know what's entirely happened; suggestive of something happening very quickly with no trace.

[TWT]

ASN and BEA say it was 9M-MRO that sustained wingtip damage at Shanghai-Pudong

ASN Aircraft accident 09-AUG-2012 Airbus A340-642 B-6050 (http://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=147560)

http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/2012/2012.semaine.32.pdf

[Clockandagger]

If plane is in 100m, this is divable for significant numbers of professional divers and FDR should be recoverable with appropriate equipment.

Recommended technical diving limit 100m. Maximum depth authorised for divers who have completed Trimix Diver certification with IANTD[7] or Advanced Trimix Diver certification with TDI.

So sorry to wake to this news today

[Heathrow Harry]

RATPIN -there are several weather related posts earlier - to sum up it was very benign

[deptrai]

I occasionally run an adsb receiver in South Vietnam, I never hooked it up to publicly transmit anything to the global internets, but I can confirm that "enthusiast" coverage over large parts of SE asia is spotty and random. Most of these gadgets are not online 24/7, not redundant in any way, and a lot of airspace isnt covered. Central Europe is different, but believe me, That the track disappeared but others were tracked says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

(And for those here who might be interested in looking at the ongoing search operation by tracking ships: publicly accessible martitime transponder - AIS - coverage is much worse. Last time I checked, there was a french electrical engineer working for a shipyard who set up a very capable yagi out of Saigon, but that's about it).

A good friend of mine worked at the maritime rescue coordination centre in Vung Tau, and now works for the central SAR coordination in VN. He's a hard-working, highly dedicated professional, a ships officer by training (just like me, originally, before I found myself in aviation), he once spent a half a year working at Solent MRCC as part of an exchange and professional development program. His father was a professional mariner, before him, I attended his funeral. He sometimes complains about being underfunded, compared to the armed forces in VN, but I'm very impressed with the capabilities of vnese Search and Rescue. They have some state of the art equipment, patrol aircraft, very modern vessels, and most importantly, highly dedicated and motivated professionals. They have a tough job, with no opportunities for financial gain.

I wont disturb him with any questions now, but my thoughts are with him, and all the others involved in this massive search operation. Let them do their job.

[Shutterbug]

If you've flown in that area of the world you'll realize how congested the waters are. As earlier comments have pointed out, there must literally be thousands of vessels at sea, and hundreds in the area of the last known a/c location. It just boggles the mind that aside from the a/c disappearing without a trace, there have been zero reports that one might expect in such an event from eye/ear witnesses on the ground or at sea.

Puzzling. Sympathies to all the crew and passengers and their loved ones anxiously waiting for any shred of news.

[shimin]

I have not got he full information. How many flightcrew members in this flight? I know the missing time is the very early moring during flight. Only two men crew for such a long and mostly nigh flight? I mean that will be very tired for oly two man crew. Or two of three, like AF447, and one of them was on his/her rest during cruise phase? What I heard is 53 years old captain with a 27 years old young FO. Too deep rank?

[The Ancient Geek]

194 posts already and no real substance - please calm down guys.

All we know is that the aircraft vanished from radar and no radio communication was received.

We have a very approximate location involving thousands of square miles of sea and it could take a long time for the first debris to be seen. If the aircraft met the water in one piece this will narrow down the search area, If the aircraft broke up in flight the main wreckage including the flight recorders could be a hundred miles from a piece of lightweight debris.

Sadly the reality is that the flight recorders are unlikely to be recovered for a long time, weeks or even months.

Until then all speculation is pointless.

[Bobman84]

Until then all speculation is pointless.

Whilst I agree and you weren't on the site during the AF447 initial moments, this thread will grow exponentially until such time as wreckage is confirmed and then grow even more.

Mysterious circumstances will always draw great interest.

[OPENDOOR]

Have I got something wrong here? FlightAware last reported position 4.7073 102.5278 Course 025 is over land in Malaysia 107nm bearing 027 from KL.

[Ian W]

It is technically very simple to have 5 second updates on every aircraft anywhere in the world. It is possible to have continual real time feed of important data, shortly it will be possible to have real time FDR/CVR upload 'to the cloud'.

The best we can expect though from operators is an ACARS messaging system that reports maintenance issues - not necessarily in order of occurrence, ADS-B transmissions to ground stations - when in range, ADS-C satcom around every 10 - 20 minutes or on vector changes (dependent on contract). The reason that
Now in all honesty with the worlds technology how in the f**k do we lose an aircraft like that .
Is due to accountants not wanting to spend the extra even on more ADS-C transmissions (you know they are a $2 a pop?) and some not wanting real time capability for the company to be able to watch FOQA or listen in to flight crew. All these discussions were 'hamster wheeled' for AF447.

AF447 also showed how long it takes to get from FL350 to sea level. The fact that the crew did not 'communicate' means that whatever happened was extremely fast and prevented communication. This indicates an event more like PanAm 103 than AF447.

If there were that many fishing boats out and as it was a clear night anything approaching TWA800 in magnitude would have been seen by hundreds of people. I suspect we will start getting eyewitness reports soon.

[LongTimeLurker]

Italian network Retequattro reported an hour ago that the italian citizen in the passenger list had called home from Thailand telling his father he is alive and well and has never been on that flight.
Journalist speculated about a false/stolen passport.

[CaptainEmad]

I dont know, but MAS is reporting this position,
Even though they got the lat/long muddled up.

Sepang, 8 March 2014: Malaysia Airlines is still unable to establish any contact or determine the whereabouts of flight MH370. Earlier today, Subang ATC had lost contact with the aircraft at 2.40am. The last known position of MH370 before it disappeared off the radar was 065515 North (longitude) and 1033443 East (latitude).

[SOPS]

I fly over that area regularly, and there are always hundreds of fishing boats in the area. Sometimes it looks like stars on the ocean, there are so many.

[tvasquez]

I occasionally run an adsb receiver in South Vietnam, I never hooked it up to publicly transmit anything to the global internets, but I can confirm that "enthusiast" coverage is spotty and random. Most of these gadgets are not online 24/7, not redundant in any way, and a lot of airspace isnt covered. Central Europe is different, but believe me, That the track disappeared but others were tracked says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.I definitely agree, but the ADS-B coverage between Malaysia and Vietnam just before and after Flight 370 are faultless. Flight 370 was in trail behind MAS52, which had complete ADS-B coverage all the way to Vietnam, and another flight followed with no problems in coverage either. Is it possible they are sourcing their data from ARINC or one of the ATC centers there?

[Wannabe Flyer]

Similarities with AI 182 ..... That was too close to home and heart. :oh:

[Livesinafield]

Another very unusal thing with this particular flight is the person listed on the passenger list, but whom definitely was not on the plane, if this is not a simple mixing of name error.

How do you know they didn't get on the plane?

[Stefan123]

Just read this:

Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370/history/20140307/1635Z/WMKK/ZBAA/tracklog)

Look at the course change and altitude change in seconds, strange.

[threemiles]

Have I got something wrong here? FlightAware last reported position 4.7073 102.5278 Course 025 is over land in Malaysia 107nm bearing 027 from KL.

Flightaware does no thave sufficient coverage over the sea.
FR24 has
Here is the full set of factuals at this time

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-mh370-contact-lost-8.html#post8359089

[milkandhoney]

How do you know they didn't get on the plane?

Because he (the Italian pax) called his family to say he wasn't on the plane, never had tickets, and he had had his passport stolen several months ago.

[Worldwidew]

Refer to my post on page 9. He called his parents in Italy from Thailand and told them he was safe and never boarded or booked the flight.

He reported his passport stolen in August 2013 in Thailand.

[threemiles]

Just read this:

Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware

Look at the course change and altitude change in seconds, strange.

This recording ends at N4.7 while the aircraft disappeared at N6.9

Flightaware has no sufficent coverage in the area

[Chutchada]

With possibly 4 ailerons and maybe 8 roll spoilers a side, I hardly think that the loss of an aileron is a complete loss of a primary flight controls?

[threemiles]

I definitely agree, but the ADS-B coverage between Malaysia and Vietnam just before and after Flight 370 are faultless. Flight 370 was in trail behind MAS52, which had complete ADS-B coverage all the way to Vietnam, and another flight followed with no problems in coverage either. Is it possible they are sourcing their data from ARINC or one of the ATC centers there?

FR24 coverage for yellow airplanes is from their own receiver fleet and/or private receivers coupled to their network.

Coverage of MAS370 at the last positon was from "F-WMKC1" station, which suggests it is located at/near Kota Bharu. This stations covers the bay until close to Vietnam. Another station in the area is "F-VVTS1", but it seems not to reach the particular area. Kota Bharu is about 10 min flying time from the last position, roughly 80 NM. No problem for any well located ADS-B receiver of any make.

[B772]

If my memory serves me correct there was a modification or similar about 5 years on the B777 Trent thrust reverser. There are 3 separate locking systems, 2 of them are hydraulic and 1 electric. The left and right hand thrust reversers use separate hydraulic systems. Could MH370 be a repeat of the Lauda B767 accident over Thailand ?

[StormyKnight]

Vietnam Search Planes Find Twin Oil Slicks, Possibly Jet Engines
Vietnamese search aircraft may have spotted two oil slicks that could be from the jet engines of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which was a twin-engine Boeing 777 jetliner, the government said on its website.

The search pilots spotted two possible oil slicks each 10-15 kilometers in length, about 500 meters apart, some 140 kilometers south of Tho Chu island off southern Vietnam, the statement said.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (http://stream.wsj.com/story/malaysia-airlines-flight-370/SS-2-475558/?mod=e2fb)

[SMT Member]

A bit of idle speculation.

There are, to me, 4 possible scenarios. 1) Sudden and catastrophic failure. 2) Act of terrorism. 3) Incorrect response to upset by flight crew. 4) Suicide.

1) Is unlikely to be caused by failure of the aircraft, albeit memories of the Lauda Air 767 inflight T/R deployment remain. Outside influences could be the one in a billion metor strike, or an accidental shoot-down by armed forces.

I don't buy the idea of onboard fire; in all such previous cases the crew have had time to radio their plight.

[Xeque]

An Italian living in Thailand reports his passport stolen in August last year.
The same name (and the same passport number??) shows up on the passenger manifest. The same Italian has since contacted his parents to assure them that it is not him. That definitely demands closer scrutiny.
One of the British newspapers (not one known for its accuracy in aviation matters) is showing the aircraft as having crossed Vietnam and come down on the south China coast and quotes Flightaware as the source for its information. Could an aircraft have flown on for so long without any kind of communication or without showing up on Vietnamese radar even if there was no SSR data being transmitted?
The Chinese government has racked up security at all its airports. Why? Do they know something others don't?
Malaysian Airlines are being particularly tight lipped although, to be fair, with no aircraft, no wreckage, no communications, no witnesses (do they get regular engineering reports from the aircraft in flight?) what can they say.
This thing gets curiouser and curiouser.

[ColB]

So perhaps someone else boarded the aircraft using his stolen passport.

Certainly one of the first avenues of enquiry for Investigators.

[Ulight]

Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware

Look at the course change and altitude change in seconds, strange.

Without knowing the FP, just speculating, but the course change may have been due to MH370 reaching IGARI. No idea if the heading information on Flightaware is accurate, but the location Malaysian published is just before IGARI slightly west from R208 (assuming it was on this path).

[Global Warrior]

A bit of idle speculation.

There are, to me, 3 possible scenarios. 1) Sudden and catastrophic failure. 2) Act of terrorism. 3) Incorrect response to upset by flight crew. 4) Suicide.

1) Is unlikely to be caused by failure of the aircraft, albeit memories of the Lauda Air 767 inflight T/R deployment remain. Outside influences could be the one in a billion metor strike, or an accidental shoot-down by armed forces.

I don't buy the idea of onboard fire; in all such previous cases the crew have had time to radio their plight.

After what happened in a Beijing Railway Station last week, I'm sure there is a lot of interest in option 2.

[TCAS_Alert]

With regards to the stolen passport, I wonder how many passengers board flights with stolen passports every day around the world. Whilst it obviously would need investigation it isn't necessarily the answer.

I think it's clear that whatever did happen was very sudden, for the aircraft to either drop to zero with no intermediate path or altitude, or something catastrophic to happen that rendered the ADS-B transponder inoperable immediately.

[WYOMINGPILOT]

Way too early to speculate but the majority of the passengers were Chinese about 160 of the 230 passengers. The Chinese have been experiencing relentless terrorist attacks from the Uyghur people from Xinjiang in the far Western China. The most recent attack was a bloody machete wielding mob who hacked up 30 plus people in Kunming, China a whole separate region in Southern, China. There have also occured almost monthly police confrontations and terrorist attacks in Xinjiang. An attempted terrorist hijacking was also carried out last year in Xinjiang on an E-175
but the crew did a valiant job in getting the aircraft on the ground expeditiously and the passengers and crew fought off the attackers. Many of these terrorist attacks go unpublished and are unknown mostly outside of China.

[Cross Check]

Gulf of Thailand isn't so deep, at worst around 80m and not even that if the flight sunk enroute from the Malaysian coast to Vietnamese coast. If they crossed over the east coast of Vietnam then there's some deep water in places - ENC shows 100-200m soundings (confirmed by some of the platforms in the area operating in 180m water), until you cross the continental shelf and it drops off to 1000+ meters, even 2000+ meters a little south of Danang. It will really depend where they can pinpoint the impact site, but if it's off the shelf deep-sea recovery will be extremely difficult.

Anyone recall at what depth the AF447 wreakage was located in? Like Airbus, I'm sure Boeing will want know why this airframe went down if humanly possible - like the Adam Air B737 before.

Actually besides Bunga Kekwa A there's around 12 other platforms in the area and north of VungTau up the east coast is heaps more. Hopefully somebody sees something floating in the water.

[snowfalcon2]

Avherald (http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0) has an unconfirmed post about a Vietnamese AN26 search aircraft spotting an oil slick at N 7.55 E103.15. The post says it's from vietnamese news.

This would be 45 NM in direction 327 degrees from the last known position of MH370 reported by FR24, indicating some kind of flying ability after the loss of contact.

Let's wait and see if this is true or false.

[HeathrowAirport]

@Cross Check

3,800 to 4,000 metres (2,100 to 2,200 fathoms; 12,500 to 13,100 ft).

[dartman748]

Well I will throw this out there. Thursday we were flying from HKG to Hano late morningi. While in HK airspace a ANA cargo flight reported a TCAS contact 3 miles, at 8 o clock, 1,000 feet below. HK atc called in the blind to the "unidentified" a/c, whih was squawking 1400 to initially identify itself, and when that did not work, to press ident, to which she got a "reply". She was able to verify their level. This went on till we transfered to Sanya, but the ANA guys were able to see the a/c and it was clearly "shadowing" them. I know the Chinese and Americans have being shadow boxing in the region of late, but this is the first time I have heard of a civilian a/c being caught up... At the time it was unnerving. Now,.... Just saying...

[Heathrow Harry]

"This would be 45 NM in direction 327 degrees from the last known position of MH370 reported by FR24, indicating some kind of flying ability"

Not so - at Lockerbie debris was scattered for mile forward of the point the plane came apart - - 7 miles and high and several hundred knots means the parabola of bits can be pretty significant.

In fact, in the absence of any other info you can calculate where breakup occurred by logging the different remnants and their size back along the debris trail

[Airbubba]

I dont know, but MAS is reporting this position,
Even though they got the lat/long muddled up.

Sepang, 8 March 2014: Malaysia Airlines is still unable to establish any contact or determine the whereabouts of flight MH370. Earlier today, Subang ATC had lost contact with the aircraft at 2.40am. The last known position of MH370 before it disappeared off the radar was 065515 North (longitude) and 1033443 East (latitude).

If that is indeed the splash point, it is less than a mile from IGARI on R208, just before the dogleg to M765 going northbound into the VVTS FIR. Technically, just inside the the WSJC (Singapore) FIR.

[barrel_owl]

Or it could just be a case of someone having the same name, surely Luigi isn't an uncommon name in Italy? Or have other details been released as well (DOB for example) which confirm it's the same guy whose passport was stolen?Same name and also same age, 37?
Looks quite implausible.

The guy is actually listed in the released Malaysia Airlines flight manifest at #101, with age 37, his actual age. However, according to La Repubblica, not only his family in Cesena (Italy) has talked to him, but also the Italian authorities from the Foreign Minister contacted him and confirmed is alive and did never boarded MAS370.

Incidente Malaysian Airlines, "Papà sto bene, sono in Thailandia". La telefonata di Luigi Maraldi ai genitori - Repubblica.it (http://bologna.repubblica.it/cronaca/2014/03/08/news/pap_sto_bene_sono_in_thailandia_la_telefonata_di_luigi_guara ldi_ai_genitori-80511569/?ref=HRER3-1)

[airdogalpha]

Im struggling with something here...
contact lost 2hours into flight... wouldn't that put the AC between Vietnam and China? Not south of Vietnam (less than 1 hour flying time from KL)
I am confused

[Chill]

This aircraft is 9M-MRO... if there was any factors contributing to an inflight breakup event then it would have more likely been 9M-MRJ, the tail strike aircraft in ZRH, required the emmpenage to be replaced.

[Bleve]

"This would be 45 NM in direction 327 degrees from the last known position of MH370 reported by FR24, indicating some kind of flying ability"

Not so - at Lockerbie debris was scattered for mile forward of the point the plane came apart - - 7 miles and high and several hundred knots means the parabola of bits can be pretty significant.

But MAH370 was traveling roughly NE, so 327 degrees is about a 90 degree left turn. Also given normal flight speeds debris won't fall 45nm from any break up.

[Stanley11]

An Italian living in Thailand reports his passport stolen in August last year.
The same name (and the same passport number??) shows up on the passenger manifest. The same Italian has since contacted his parents to assure them that it is not him. That definitely demands closer scrutiny. Assuming this to be true for a moment, the alarming thing would be the major foul up in the authorities to flag out the passport.

[Kubalson]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?smid=tw-bna&_r=0

[barrel_owl]

@Kubalson

My two cents.
An oil slick itself is not yet a conclusive evidence of the crash site. I remember very well in 2009, during the early stage of the search for AF447, a long oil slick was also spotted by a Brazilian Air Force rescue aircraft. Eventually it turned out the slick was probably the result of ship leakage.
The actual debris area was found many miles away from there.

So it may be an evidence of the crash or may be not.

[philipat]

I'm sure we all have opinions about Immigration Officials. BUT, a Western Chinese dissident doesn't look much like an Italian, even to a totally clueless Official? Also, a Passport once reported as lost is immediately cancelled and cannot be use again??


That said, a 772 doesn't just disappear in good weather without any communication.


The problem here is going to be that the ACARS data is unlikely to help much if it just stops??

[Heathrow Harry]

Bleve

that is correct but we don't know where the plane actually broke up and what direction it was pointing when it did

you can envisage as sudden yaw that would put it at any point in the compass immediately before breakup

I have real problems with the idea that a the plane had any flyable ability and could not communicate at all

[fflyingdog]

I don't know for sure about Malaysian ,but our aircraft are always squawking on ACARS telling tales almost to the point when the Captain goes for a pee.So conceivable if equipped with ACARS, the aircraft would still be squawking technical problems even if the crew were not able to .

[snowfalcon2]

The posting in AVHerald's chat with the AN26 observation seems to have disappeared, but here is a Vietnamese site (http://dantri.com.vn/xa-hoi/tau-viet-nam-dang-tiep-can-vung-bien-nghi-co-2-vet-dau-loang-847225.htm) which tells essentially the same and looks credible enough. It is apparently from the official Vietnamese search HQ, and there is even a picture of the search area division between Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore.

Apart from the oil slick, the AN26 also reported an unspecified smoke sighting some 10 miles south of the oil slick and approx 28 NM / 312 degrees from the FR24 LKP.

Airborne search was terminated because of local sunset, but ships are continuing during darkness.

I'm still puzzled because an oil slick 45NM from LKP indicates to me that the plane would have been at least somewhat flyable, but the smoke debris 10 NM away indicates some parts have separated in the air.

Of course this may all still be false spottings and conclusions. Tomorrow will tell more.

Anyone knows the sea currents in the area? A 2 kts current during 12 hrs would account for a 24 NM drift, but to drift 45 NM the current needs to be almost 4 kts which is not that common.

[MrSnuggles]

A quick one about the Italian passport....

I) Major screw-up not to nullify that passport number to render it useless.

II) That WTC bomber from 1993 (don't remember his name) was some kind of Middle Eastern guy who posed as Italian to get on his trial run flights.

III) Wasn't he operating from Indonesia? Malaysia? Something like that. Thankfully the police force in whatever country it was, was quick to react and managed to track him down. Now he is safe in prison in the US. Thankyou, police force!

[Tu.114]

So there may have been a passenger on board travelling under a false name.

While this may well be an authority screw up to allow this to happen and, as has been mentioned, fail to flag down this passport as stolen and invalid, I would hesitate to see a bigger problem with this.

Independent of what name any passenger chooses to travel under, there still is a security control to be passed before boarding. Both for people and for their luggage. So if someone travels incognito or not, for him to take along something untoward would need minding of this little detail as well.

Now if one finds a way to bypass security checks and bring something nasty, he surely would not need to draw suspicion by additionally travelling with a stolen passport?

[philipat]

Yes, AF ACARS transmitted data all the way down through the multiple failure chain. However, and I don't wish to speculate, ACARS would NOT help much in the event of some type of catastrophic failure which resulted in an immediate stop in transmission?

[Fareastdriver]

For an Italian going to China he would need a visa before he could board the aircraft.. To get a Chinese visa you have to present a recent photograph of yourself with the application form. I'm sure a Chinese visa official would know the difference between an Italian and a Chinese.

[Chill]

That NYT article citied a telling quote.

One uncertainty about the flight involved when it disappeared from radar and how quickly the search began in the Gulf of Thailand. Malaysia Airlines said that the plane took off at 12:41 a.m. Malaysia time, and that the plane disappeared from air traffic control radar in Subang, a suburb of Kuala Lumpur, at 2:40 a.m.

That timeline seemed to suggest that the plane stayed in the air for two hours — long enough to fly not only across the Gulf of Thailand but also far north across Vietnam. But Mr. Lindahl of Flightradar 24 said that the last radar contact had been at 1:19 a.m., less than 40 minutes after the flight began.

The FR24 people should know their data well enough, why everyone else didn't is a mystery. At least that confirms a splash site in the entrance to the Gulf of Thailand - best news on a bad situation.

[Stanley11]

HK atc called in the blind to the "unidentified" a/c, whih was squawking 1400 to initially identify itself, and when that did not work, to press ident, to which she got a "reply". She was able to verify their level. This went on till we transfered to Sanya, but the ANA guys were able to see the a/c and it was clearly "shadowing" them. I know the Chinese and Americans have being shadow boxing in the region of late, but this is the first time I have heard of a civilian a/c being caught up... At the time it was unnerving. Now,.... Just saying... Interesting that you mention this. I just watched the series "Air Crash Investigation" on the episode regarding the mid air collision between a F-4 and a DC-9 in 1971. The vertical stabiliser of the F4 sliced the DC cockpit clean off. No comms from either pilots, fell off radar contact. Only survivor was the RIO on the F4.

[crewmeal]

Our old friend who knows everything about aviation David learmount is comparing AF 449 with MH370 and suggesting that at 1-2am people are at their lowest mentally and physically.

Malaysia Airlines Plane 'Crashes In Vietnam' (http://news.sky.com/story/1222674/malaysia-airlines-plane-crashes-in-vietnam)

Simon Calder suggest the comments on social media sites are wrong. Surely he can't be thinking of pprune :ugh:

[longisland]

CNN reporter Richard Quest had interview on today's TV program that he flew with the F/O that was listed on MH370 several weeks ago for some sort of CNN program. Had a short video clip of him in the jumpseat while in-flight.

[Deaf]

a Western Chinese dissident doesn't look much like an Italian

Plenty of people in Xinjiang could pass for a european some southern - some northern

[philipat]

And KUL is a great airport. Connection times are VERY short, which is the "Good" news. Transit times Europe/Asia (London to Bali for instance) can be as little as 45 minutes. The bad news is, potentially, I wonder how good the baggage checks are??

[konstantin]

Google "uyghur people photos"
;)

[henra]

However, and I don't wish to speculate, ACARS would NOT help much in the event of some type of catastrophic failure which resulted in an immediate stop in transmission?

Has the time ACARS stopped transmitting been established at all?
I haven't read anything definitive about ACARS from this flight so far.
Unlike AF447 I haven't seen anything regarding what the last transmissions of this flight were. If it stopped completely out of the blue that would be an indication towards a catastrophic event.

[MrSnuggles]

I'm sure a Chinese visa official would know the difference between an Italian and a Chinese
Yes, that might be very obvious, but some lighter Middle Eastern guys can be surprisingly similar to darker Italians.

There are some Middle Eastern guys located in Indonesia/Malaysia/Singapore.

[andrasz]

...major foul up in the authorities to flag out the passport

Whether this will have any bearing on the events or not (AND if the information proves to be true), I agree with the comments above. The immigration officers at KLIA are not the brightest, and on exit their main concern is to find that magical entry stamp in the passport. A non-roundeye holding an Italian passport with an Italian sounding name would probably trigger some suspicion, but someone with a middle-eastern or even fairer south Asian complexion would be given just a passing glance if the computer does not give any warning. Whether the passport would have been flagged as stolen and invalid depends on the Italian authorites circulating the information, then the Malaysian authorities entering that information into their immigration system. As we know, the bureaucracies of neither fine lands are known for their speed and efficiency...

Moreover Italian passport holders need a valid visa to enter China, so there had to be (a real or forged) visa sticker in that passport for whoever was using that passport to be permitted t board, that would have been checked together with the passport at the check-in counter. Now that would indicate quite a degree of determination and preparation, either to get in to China under a false identity (not exactly a risk-free endeavor), or to simply board this flight. I'm sure this is being looked into as we post.

[Mahatma Kote]

To pre-empt any discussion related to times. Vietnam is 1 hr *behind* Malaysia despite being geographically to the East.

That is, as I write, the time is 9:23 pm in Malaysia and 8:23 pm in Vietnam.

Keep that in mind when reading reports from different sources and especially the time of last reported contact - which may well introduce a 1hr ambiguity in flight duration.

This may well explain why the supposed crash location is an hour out from KL but is reported as two hours - which would be North of Vietnam.

[Tu.114]

Indeed, the Uygurs are Turkic people and there might indeed be some similiarity to a Southern European. Also, the photograph on the passport used needs not be the original one.

That said, if (and this is a big IF!) there should indeed be a criminal act involving the person in question connected to this accident, it is a bit illogical to use an airline of a fellow Muslim country for this attack, as despite the large number of Chinese nationals on the passenger list, it is nevertheless a Malaysian aircraft and the attack will rather be seen as directed towards Malaysia than China. Also, criminals in the past have tended to proudly and quickly claim responsibility for such an attack; as far as I know such word is still not out on this accident.

Not even a part of the aircraft (apart from some oil that may or may not be related to this accident) has been found yet, and already the accident is solved by many, it seems. Please be not too quick to jump to conclusions.

[IBMJunkman]

All batteries rise in temp when under load due to chemical actions. Batteries out of a circuit in a shipping container have no active chemical actions and would take on the ambient temp.

[Greenlights]

Weather normal, no mayday and even no location.
Only 2 things come in mind :
- a sudden problem (explosion)
- a unaware problem, cf AF 447
sure we need to wait for the investigation, but anyway, no need to be expert to suppose that firstly.