Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Fornax]

What about the contact a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Narita 30min ahead of MH370 made on 121,5 after it disappeared and failed to check in with Vietnamese ATC - they heard mumbling and static from MH370.
Guess this contact is recored by (several) ground stations.
Here you could (maybe) hear if there are any signs of hypoxia, state of AC (background noise etc).
Find it strange this have barely been mentioned at all...
Or is this contact also a hoax?

Also, they ought to check/know if "Allright, goodnight" was common practice by these pilots, or the pilot on the R/T doing that last conversation.
If they usually were by-the-book pilots regarding R/T, its a bit strange with this R/T - again: first signs of hypoxia?

[Heli-phile]

So, question to 777 jockeys here: Does the 777 FMS (or any for that fact) store any previous flight plans up to a certain amount? Or is a flight plan gone once you wipe it and put the next plan in the following day say?

Most regular routes are preprogrammed and called up on demand to save having to sit and laboriously enter every waypoint. However to select and activate a new route requires at least 4 menu options and selections ( depending what point you are in the FMS) Never heard of any occurrence as you are suggesting.

[Ramboflyer 1]

If the aircraft flew extra 5 hours the voice recorder would now be erased for the time of disappearance , unless it was disabled as well , then it would contain the required data if found. FDR would have all the parameters , unless it was switched off during initial climb and masking the entire scenario , the recorders may not have the answers.
I think the CIA should visit these jokers making fake videos and youtube you need to ban some people.

[slamer.]

Investigator: Missing plane flew over Malaysia

8:08 AM Saturday Mar 15, 2014

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/201411/SCCZEN_AP140315041115_620x310.jpg


Investigators are increasingly certain the missing Malaysian Airlines jet turned back across the country after its last radio contact with air traffic controllers, and that someone with aviation skills was responsible for the change in course, a Malaysian government official said.
A Breaking News report by CNN says a classified analysis of electronic and satellite data conducted by the United States and Malaysian governments shows Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 likely crashed into the Indian Ocean on one of two flight paths. One flight path suggests the plane crashed into the Bay of Bengal off the coast of India; the other has it traveling southeast and crashing elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, according to the analysis.
A US official said in Washington that investigators are examining the possibility of "human intervention" in the plane's disappearance, adding it may have been "an act of piracy." The official, who wasn't authorized to talk to the media and spoke on condition of anonymity, said it also was possible the plane may have landed somewhere.

While other theories are still being examined, the official said key evidence for the human intervention is that contact with the Boeing 777's transponder stopped about a dozen minutes before a messaging system on the jet quit.

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/201411/flight_460x230.jpg (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/video.cfm?c_id=2&gallery_id=141678&gal_objectid=11220118)


The Malaysian official, who also declined to be identified because he is not authorized to brief the media, said only a skilled person could navigate the plane the way it was flown after its last confirmed location over the South China Sea.
Earlier Friday, acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said the country had yet to determine what happened to the plane after it dropped off civilian radar and ceased communicating with the ground around 40 minutes into the flight to Beijing on March 8.
He said investigators were still trying to establish with certainty that military radar records of a blip moving west across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca showed Flight MH370.
"I will be the most happiest person if we can actually confirm that it is the MH370, then we can move all (search) assets from the South China Sea to the Strait of Malacca," he told reporters. Until then, he said, the international search effort would continue expanding east and west from the plane's last confirmed location.

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/201411/Seeker_460x230.jpeg (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/video.cfm?c_id=2&gallery_id=141636&gal_objectid=11220118)


The Malaysian official said it had now been established with a "more than 50 percent" degree of certainty that military radar had picked up the missing plane.
On Thursday, a U.S. official said the plane remained airborne after losing contact with air traffic control, sending a signal to establish contact with a satellite. The Malaysian official confirmed this, referring to the process by its technical term of a "handshake."
Boeing offers a satellite service that can receive a stream of data on how an aircraft is functioning in flight and relay the information to the plane's home base. Malaysia Airlines didn't subscribe to that service, but the plane still had the capability to connect with the satellite and was automatically sending signals, or pings, said the U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to discuss the situation by name.

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/201411/Missing_Jet_460x23032449.jpeg (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/video.cfm?c_id=2&gallery_id=141649&gal_objectid=11220118)


Hishammuddin said the government would only release information about the signals when they were verified.
"I hope within a couple of days to have something conclusive," he told a news conference.
Malaysia has faced accusations it isn't sharing all its information or suspicions about the plane's final movements. It insists it is being open, and says it would be irresponsible to narrow the focus of the search until there is undeniable evidence of the plane's flight path.
No theory has been ruled out in one of modern aviation's most puzzling mysteries.
But it now appears increasingly certain the plane didn't experience a catastrophic incident over the South China Sea as was initially seen as the most likely scenario. Some experts believe it is possible that one of the pilots, or someone with flying experience, hijacked the plane for some later purpose or committed suicide by plunging the aircraft into the sea.

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/201411/ind_Jet_460x230.jpeg (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/video.cfm?c_id=2&gallery_id=141667&gal_objectid=11220118)


Mike Glynn, a committee member of the Australian and International Pilots Association, said he considers pilot suicide to be the most likely explanation for the disappearance, as was suspected in a SilkAir crash during a flight from Singapore to Jakarta in 1997 and an EgyptAir flight in 1999.
"A pilot rather than a hijacker is more likely to be able to switch off the communications equipment," Glynn said. "The last thing that I, as a pilot, want is suspicion to fall on the crew, but it's happened twice before."
Glynn said a pilot may have sought to fly the plane into the Indian Ocean to reduce the chances of recovering data recorders, and to conceal the cause of the disaster.
Scores of aircraft and ships from 12 countries are involved in the search, which reaches into the eastern stretches of the South China Sea and on the western side of the Malay Peninsula, northwest into the Andaman Sea and the India Ocean.
India said it was using heat sensors on flights over hundreds of uninhabited Andaman Sea islands Friday and would expand the search for the missing jet farther west into the Bay of Bengal, more than 1,600 kilometers (100 miles) to the west of the plane's last known position. Spokesman Col. Harmit Singh of India's Tri-Services Command said it began land searches after sweeping seas to the north, east and south of the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
A team of five U.S. officials with air traffic control and radar expertise - three from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and two from the Federal Aviation Administration - has been in Kuala Lumpur since Monday to assist with the investigation.

[charlieboy747]

"If the aircraft flew extra 5 hours the voice recorder would now be erased for the time of disappearance, unless it was disabled as well"
Are you one of those people who thinks CVRs still work on a thirty minute loop? The CVR will still have the previous three flights recorded on it, even if they flew on for 5h. It's not the 1960s for god's sake.

[Golf-Sierra]

Preprogrammed route theory is a red-herring, since the alleged route flown by the airplane makes no sense. It is a zig zag.

Could an unqualified person (i.e. non pilot) looking at the HSI and heading towards a waypoint have done that?

Get real - today even 8 y.o.s run flight sims on their tablets. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that if you select a value in the HDG window on the MCP - that is the direction the plane is going to fly. But to know that the wp you see on the HSI is in fact a virtual point somewhere over the ocean - that is a different story.

Mid air collision = fuel patch on ocean.

Pilots become incapacitated. Plane make erratic climb/descent.

Someone attempts to take over controls (ala Helios) - pax, cc, maybe someone who is going for a ppl/cpl? Doesn't know how to operate radio (hence garbled RC). Doesn't understand nav displays (hence goes from wp to wp, hoping it is an airport).

Collision explains why local authorities reluctant to share primary radar data.

FFS, a patch of jetfuel on the ocean at LKP, you can't just dismiss that.

[CaptainDrCook]

As SLF, if a flight I am on turns gradually by 150 degrees, I notice it. Not all are oblivions.

The human balance system can't detect small changes in direction (but is very good at detecting sudden changes). A commercial flight could do a 180 degree turn in around five minutes at night with no one noticing it on board.

[henra]

amongst lots of other systems this would take out the FMS so no information to the moving map in the cabin and the flight instrument display system, But the Satcom C/Bs are in the MEC, downstairs, so the satcom would still be logged on to a satellite, (pinging ?), the aircraft could be flown on basic, standby instruments and raw navigation,

But that doesn't seem to match the alleged proper adherance to the official Airways when flying west?!

This whole thing remains really mysterious. Are we (the public) receiving only just incomplete or also false information from the different parties involved?

Here's really hoping FDR + CVR will be found in a readable condition since it is the only hope to end all this speculation.

[DaveReidUK]

Kudos to the former AAIB investigator who was the only person on Channel 5's panel who declined the invitation at the close of the programme to speculate on what was behind MH370's disappearance.

No comment on the "security expert" panellist who posited a cyber-attack. :ugh:

[grumpyoldgeek]

As SLF, if a flight I am on turns gradually by 150 degrees, I notice it. Not all are oblivions.

Then you're doing better than me or the pilot was ham-fisted. I was on a US Air A320 and the only way I could tell that the pilot started a racetrack holding pattern was looking out the window. And I'm a pilot.

[parabellum]

Anyone know if there were any positioning Tech Crew on the flight?

[BraceBrace]

If you have a fire, depressurizing is a normal procedure in many cargo aircraft since there is no fire protection system on the main deck. 777 freighter has this procedure. The problem off course with passengers is that you automatically activate the passenger oxygen system and re-establish oxygen generation on the main deck, which is exactly what you are trying to avoid.

As far as the different flightplans work: a different flightplan could very will have "survived" on route 2 when there has never really been a complete shutdown (it might be removed if you change the databases during preflight, I'm not sure, but that happens not very frequent...). But activating a flightplan on the other route 2 page pretty quickly can lead to "not on intercept heading" if I recall quickly. So I don't really consider it something that can happen "by accident".

[mercurydancer]

The shuttle Challenger exploded at 50,000 feet. Not 65.000 feet.

Columbia was noted to be breaking up by observers in California so an awful lot of visibility before Columbia finally disintegrated.

[1stspotter]

ABC News reports that two data systems were switched off with an interval of 14 minutes.

First at 1:07 AM the data transmission system was not sending data anymore, then at 1.21 AM the transponder did not sent any data.

ABC suggest this was done deliberatley.

The 'ping data' to satellites is the only system which cannot be shutdown manually.

Malaysia Airline Search Intensifies in Two Widely Separated Areas - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/International/malaysia-airline-search-intensifies-widely-separated-areas/story?id=22909835)

[Aisle2c]

Aisle2c

"Tourist, whatever about the sarcasm, if it helps find the plane (or remnants of) quickly, then it should be done."

Why, exactly?

It seems to me that avoiding potential future causes of trouble is more important than finding a crash site.

Once you are dead, you are dead.
Forever.

The only time constraint is to spare the families anguish. That is valid, but not as important as avoiding future anguish.


No, the likelihood of saving anyone is remote, but getting to the crash site quickly will help in the recovery of as much of the aircraft as possible, which can help in explaining what happened.


As we currently can see, they don't even know what ocean the plane is in.

[olasek]

Crew select some routing in FMS. However they select the wrong one and continue with Hypoxia getting worse. This doesn't make much sense.
A crew experiencing hypoxia would be donning masks and not playing with an FMS (assuming a competent crew). There would be a blaring horn and red master light blinking - this would occupy their attention, not FMS.

[mickjoebill]

The shuttle Challenger exploded at 50,000 feet. Not 65.000 feet.
It initially exploded at 45000 feet and continued to 65000 feet.

[parabellum]

About twice a year, since I joined PPRuNe in April 1997, either Danny or Rob have explained why posts on threads such as this get deleted, if a post is frivolous, repetitive, asks questions already answered, makes statements that clearly show the poster hasn't bothered to read the previous pages, makes really stupid claims, like 'aliens' etc. makes a post that is quite irrelevant, then they will be deleted, as they contribute nothing to the discussion and take up unnecessary space. It isn't 'censorship', as some suggest, it is good house keeping and goes some way towards reducing the amount of fatuous 'glue' that the aviation professionals here have to wade through.

[Titania]

As an insomniac SLF and being mostly awake during night flights, I can tell looking at the sky at night if the plane is changing direction. I can even tell you which direction that would be, where are the planets if any are visible, trace the ecliptic and guess the approximate local time without looking at my watch. Ancient mariners had this skill practised a thousand times better than I. Do you mean to tell me that pilots would not know to navigate by the stars?

[DWS]

Does anyone here KNOW how often the ACARS- system on a 777 or on this 777 pings absent a response or ( contract ) to supply engine related data?

Note that BA claims no such contract- and RR also claims no ( engine? ) data after a few minutes before transponder shut down.

I suspect that some technical types consider DATA only to be ( engine parameters and the like ) and the non technical types do NOT consider a simple ping to be DATA … or vice versa depending on background.

And about 99 percent of the media pundits don't know the difference.

So when RR says NO engine data - they **probably mean ** no engine parameters- and do not count a ping per se as DATA

The press probably thinks or defines NO DATA as being NO pings

Yes its splitting hairs or whatever- but his old engineer would consider the ping as " hello- are you there " as an address or attempt to communicate and NOT DATA as its commonly used. I would consider altitude and speed and time as general DATA and Engine parameters as " engine " data .

Lacking one ( engine ) data IMO does NOT mean NO DATA if altitude and speed are part of the transmission.

Back to my question does anyone KNOW the ping repitition rate or ( try every xx minutes or seconds and if no answer to dump data, try again in xx minutes ) ???

[p.j.m]

as it is best understood


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BirwabjCIAACtVF.png:large

as provided by
Disparition du Vol MH370 : la zone de recherche étendue à l?Océan Indien | Air Info (http://airinfo.org/2014/03/14/disparition-du-vol-mh370-la-zone-de-recherche-etendue-a-locean-indien/)

This is the path before adding on the new statement from the US/Malaysia team, which indicates around the end point of the plotted path one of two directions were taken - one in the SW direction toward MEMEK and one nearly due north toward SANAR

According to CNN, the US and India have basically determined one of those directions is where the plane will be found, and that is where the two Countries will be looking headed froward

that plot is at best 2.5 hours, but we know the aircraft was flying for at least 5 hours, with enough fuel for maybe 7 hours or so.

[olasek]

that plot is at best 2.5 hours, but we know the aircraft was flying for up to 5 hours.
There is no contradiction between 2.5 hours and up to 5 hrs.

[porterhouse]

So, Yes, a crew could inadvertently make active a previous flight's route, very easily, in 2key presses of the FMC
No, not that easy, they would be prompted for discontinuity and they would have to acknowledge it and 'fix' it. 2 keys wouldn't do it.

[VinRouge]

Look at the route. It's not part of a recognised route structure. It's following the fir boundary. Why do this? Because if you want to cause max confusion, and you are in the know, you do this to play one airspace against the other, by flying along the boundary instead of,across it until you are outside of radar coverage.

Problem is, with the endurance they had, jet could be anywhere in the Indian Ocean.

[400drvr]

It's very easy to forget there are real people and real families who's lives have been changed forever. For the families involved I hope they have the answers they are looking for and deserve very soon.

[porterhouse]

but we know the aircraft was flying for at least 5 hours Nobody know for sure how long they were flying.
But per the CNN article and news video this graph ends where they either went North West or South East, watch the relevant CNN video, it is all there.

[Passagiata]

About twice a year, since I joined PPRuNe in April 1997, either Danny or Rob have explained why posts on threads such as this get deletedThanks a million, mods, for doing all this and also not closing off this conversation to insiders only. It has been fantastic for non-tech, non-pilot folks to be able to tap in and learn - and stay a jump ahead of the tabloids. We'll go back on the SLF thread when the plane's found... :}

[KKN_]

Does anyone here KNOW how often the ACARS- system on a 777 or on this 777 pings absent a response or ( contract ) to supply engine related data? KNOW no - but if one would take the unnamed NYT article sources at face value, handshakes should be frequent enough to estimate (and discard) an apparent 40'000ft change 'in the space of a minute'. Might be extrapolation though (which must use grotesque FL when done from longer time steps).

[jet_noseover]

40K feet drop in one min would make the T7 break apart. Shedding parts, etc.

[Titania]

Do you mean to tell me that pilots would not know to navigate by the stars?
Yes. It's not a commonly needed skill.

Nor would they be able to use the sun by day?

I am left without voice. It may not be a "commonly needed skill" but it's darn useful and I would have more confidence in flying if I knew that failing all equipment the pilots would know where they are and where they go... I was taught as a child, it's not that difficult, no need to be an astronomer...

It's a skill that could have come in handy to the pilots of MH370 on this moonless night without clouds.

[dmurray14]

Does anyone here KNOW how often the ACARS- system on a 777 or on this 777 pings absent a response or ( contract ) to supply engine related data?

Note that BA claims no such contract- and RR also claims no ( engine? ) data after a few minutes before transponder shut down.

I suspect that some technical types consider DATA only to be ( engine parameters and the like ) and the non technical types do NOT consider a simple ping to be DATA … or vice versa depending on background.

And about 99 percent of the media pundits don't know the difference.

So when RR says NO engine data - they **probably mean ** no engine parameters- and do not count a ping per se as DATA

The press probably thinks or defines NO DATA as being NO pings

Yes its splitting hairs or whatever- but his old engineer would consider the ping as " hello- are you there " as an address or attempt to communicate and NOT DATA as its commonly used. I would consider altitude and speed and time as general DATA and Engine parameters as " engine " data .

Lacking one ( engine ) data IMO does NOT mean NO DATA if altitude and speed are part of the transmission.

Back to my question does anyone KNOW the ping repitition rate or ( try every xx minutes or seconds and if no answer to dump data, try again in xx minutes ) ???

I know literally nothing about the SATCOM system on the 777, but my take on the situation is that it is similar to cell phones. You can have a cell phone that is not subscribed to any service, however it is still going to "ping" the towers and attempt to register with the network and get online. The network will reject it (as the radio/customer is not subscribed), but they would theoretically have a record of the IMEI/SIM identifier sent to them during the registration process. So, I don't think there is any contradiction here. Assuming the A/C was equipped with the SATCOM radio, whether or not it was actually subscribed, it was likely attempting to join the network on a regular basis. Perhaps as part of the registration header, the A/C sends it's current position (maybe to assist in locating the correct satellite or ground gateway) - but does not successfully register due to lack of subscription. This would corroborate a statement from both RR & Boeing's saying they didn't receive any information from the customer, as well as the fact that the provider (Inmarsat? or whomever it is) received "data" from the plane.

[VinRouge]

Why is it useful? Gps, ins, nav aids, magnetic compass and you want us to get our astrolabe out too?

[mickjoebill]

The airline and nation are probably n complete shock about the only conclusion you can draw from this.

Surely a FBI style investigation of the homes, bank accounts, medical records, telephone records of those with access to the flight deck is underway?

Otherwise there could be an unread note, left on the kitchen table?


Mickjoebill

[xgjunkie]

I think people are thinking far too much into this tragedy.

My belief is it was a simple catastrophic event most probably a serious raging fire and the aircraft was pulverised into tiny pieces upon hitting the sea near its original track.
There have been a few instances in history where that has happened where it left very little debris floating.

My problem with the hypoxia then anoxia theory is should the aircraft had headed west over the malay peninsula, crowded airspace with the transponder off then how come no atc controllers on duty in the area noticed it with primary paint and made a song and dance about an unidentified aircraft being in their airspace. Sure a military facility claims they painted the aircraft but that is not officially released info. If the military painted it then so would the civvies.

I believe this current preoccupation with engine or airframe reporting picked up by inmarsat may again be over-reaching. Are inmarsat absolutely 100% sure they were listening to the accident aircraft? How do they know MAS hasnt been swapping systems on the planes for maintenance and the system registered to mh370 was not on another plane?

As for the terrorism angle, excepting 9/11, most terrorists want to announce to the world what they are trying to achieve, not cloak and dagger so turning off transponders etc... Achieves what advantage for them?

The vast majority of accident sequences end up being very simple indeed. Anything else requires complexity that is outside the limits of most people.

[overthewing]

If any of this turns out to be true, you can see why the Malaysians were flustered. They start off with something that looks like a 'straightforward' destruction /crash, then are gradually presented with a bunch of facts that add up to something almost beyond belief. You'd hardly want to go public with this and look like mad people. The internal arguments must have been fierce.

[porterhouse]

Nor would they be able to use the sun by day?Pilots have truly numerous ways to navigate these days, neither Sun nor Stars are on the agenda,

It's a skill that could have come in handy to the pilots of MH370 on this moonless night without clouds. WHY?
There is absolutely zero evidence that these pilots got lost or could no longer navigate.

[physicus]

My aviation maps for that area do not show the boundaries as depicted in the image p.j.m reposted, only some of the lines (few of them in fact) delineate between Chennai (VOMF), Kuala Lumpur (WMFC), Jakarta, Yangoon and Bangkok (VTBB) FIRs. By leg:
- IGARI-VAMPI crosses in and out of VTBB/WMFC FIRs
- VAMPI-GIVAL follows no boundary and remains inside WMFC FIR
- GIVAL-IGREX remains well inside WMFC.

All based on the (current) SkyVector Hi/Lo alt enroute charts.

What sort of chart was used by the OP?

[p.j.m]

As for the terrorism angle, excepting 9/11, most terrorists want to announce to the world what they are trying to achieve, not cloak and dagger so turning off transponders etc... Achieves what advantage for them?

And if thy want x number of aircraft for a future act of terrorism, do you think they are going to tip their hand before they actually commit it?

Personally, I think we need security beefed up, and on high alert at the current point in time.

[misd-agin]

You will not notice turns using 5 degrees of bank UNLESS you are looking outside and using stars for reference when the turn starts.


You will not notice very small rates of climb(100-200' FPM).


The changes are so small if you feel the initial movement, doubtful, if it stays at that pitch or bank attitude for a long time your body will use the increased G (from the 5 degree bank) or slightly increased pitch attitude, as the new baseline.


The best odds of noticing small changes would be if you're standing. Most people don't notice the G loading change, felt as a weight increase, during turns unless they are standing. Your body is more in tune to the weight or pitch changes when you're standing vs. when you're sitting.

[p.j.m]

Nobody know for sure how long they were flying.

true, however if indeed there is SATCOM telemetry for 5 hours, that would prove at least 5 hours of flight.

We don't know Inmarsat's reception coverage (although we'd like to think they can receive SATCOM anywhere), we do know the aircraft had around 7 hours worth of fuel.

[DWS]

Insider Was Needed to Disable Plane Systems - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579439653701712312?mg=reno64-wsj)

Insider Was Needed to Disable Plane Systems
If multiple communication systems aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 were manually disabled, as investigators increasingly suspect happened, it would have required detailed knowledge of the long-range Boeing Co. 777's inner workings.


f multiple communication systems aboard Malaysia Airlines 3786.KU +2.13% Flight 370 were manually disabled, as investigators increasingly suspect happened, it would have required detailed knowledge of the long-range Boeing Co. BA +1.00% 777's inner workings.

The first loss of the jet's transponder, which communicates the jet's position, speed and call sign to air traffic control radar, would require disabling a circuit breaker above and behind an overhead panel. Pilots rarely, if ever, need to access the circuit breakers, which are reserved for maintenance personnel. …

…

A physical disconnection of the satellite communications system would require extremely detailed knowledge of the aircraft, its internal structure and its systems. The satellite data system is spread across the aircraft and disabling it would require physical access to key components. Disconnecting the satellite data system from the jet's central computer, known as AIMS, would disable its transmission. The central computer can be reached from inside the jet while it is flying, but its whereabouts would have to be known by someone deeply familiar with the 777.

Getting into the area housing the 777's computers would "not take a lot" of knowledge, said an aviation professional who has worked with the 777. However, this person added, "to know what to do there to disable" systems would require considerable understanding of the jet's inner workings. Some airlines outfit the access hatch to the area below the floor with a special screw to prevent unauthorized intrusion, the person added.

Orbiting satellites are designed to check in with the aircraft's satellite-communication system hourly if no data is received during that time. The pings from the aircraft became a subject of scrutiny earlier this week, said a person familiar with the matter, several days after the plane first went missing.

Goes on

[cynar]

NY Times is reporting shared Malaysian military radar data shows extreme changes in altitude and direction following loss of secondary radar contact.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?hp

[Vinnie Boombatz]

@Physicus (#3579):

You can zoom in here:

ArcGIS Viewer for Flex (http://gis.icao.int/flexviewer/)

Some FIR boundaries look similar, some don't. The ICAO boundary between Thailand and Malaysia, for example, zigs and zags a lot.

[Silanda]

Excuse me if I'm not up to date but are there any sources for this flying five hours/terrorism other than the Wall Street Journal? They won't say what their sources are and I get the feeling that most other news sites are just regurgitating the WSJ's stories. It must be doing wonders for their site views but is there any corroboration at all?

[dicksorchard]

Historically the mystery of an aircraft disappearing never to be seen again is not something new . Happened not that long ago in 2003 . If a 727 can disapear - why not a 777 ? No trace of 844AA has ever been found or that of the two Non Pilots supposedly on board .

"According to press reports, the aircraft began taxiing with no communication between the crew and the tower; maneuvering erratically, it entered a runway without clearance. With its lights off and its transponder not transmitting, 844AA took off to the southwest, and headed out over the Atlantic Ocean. The 727 and the two men have not been seen since."

on May 25, 2003, shortly before sunset, Padilla boarded the company’s Boeing 727-223, tail number N844AA. With him was a helper he had recently hired, John Mikel Mutantu, from the Republic of the Congo. The two had been working with Angolan mechanics to return the 727 to flight-ready status so they could reclaim it from a business deal gone bad, but neither could fly it. Mutantu was not a pilot, and Padilla had only a private pilot’s license. A 727 ordinarily requires three trained aircrew.

Its an interesting story and well worth a read . If you want conspiracy theory's this has everything you need - but the fact is no trace of this aircraft has ever been found .


http://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/the-727-that-vanished-2371187/?page=1

[Livesinafield]

Altitude and Direction changes
NY Times is reporting shared Malaysian military radar data shows extreme changes in altitude and direction following loss of secondary radar contact.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/wo...-radar.html?hp


When you look at it like that, it's seems a bit more uncontrolled

[CogSim]

It was a night flight. Many pax will bee asleep or dozing. A gentle turn will probably go unnoticed. So even if there was some malicious event occurring, e.g. an act of piracy, the passengers may have not even noticed that anything was wrong and switch on their phones to contact people (as 9/11 told us they would).

I don't know where all this "gentle turn" business is coming from. Officially, we don't have any confirmation that the aircraft deviated from its track.

All the unofficial leaks so far have indicated a "sharp turn towards west".

And *if* as the latest NYT leak indicates, your behind was launched 10000 ft up into space, and then dumped 20000 ft I think you'd notice, sleeping or not.

[onetrack]

I am struggling to come to terms with the information presented, that the worlds superpowers, with their ability to land spacecraft on the moon, cannot find a 200+ tonne aircraft in the Earths atmosphere, or on land or water.
We were told over 30 yrs ago, that the cameras in satellites could read a car numberplate from 100 miles up. Admittedly, they have to be pointed in the right direction, and people with Mk1 eyballs, have to scan the info received. However, since 2001, surveillance and information processing has been increased 1000-fold.

We are left with only two eyewitness accounts.

1. EIGHT people, in a group on a beach in North Eastern Malaysia, ALL HEARD a massively "loud frightening noise" - a mid-air explosion - at around 1:30AM local time, pretty much right about the time of disappearance of the aircraft. This sound was so loud they rushed to the nearby area they thought it had come from.

2. An oil rig worker, on a highly-elevated platform WITNESSED a fireball in the sky, in the correct direction, at height, right about the time of the aircrafts disappearance.

It's been advised, no space satellite of any superpower, picked up this fireball. Despite this seemingly impossible scenario, it can't be dismissed that all the sky surveillance missed this event.

I can come to no other conclusion other than that a catastrophic event enveloped the aircraft and it suffered a mid-air explosion of such immensity (fed by 40 tonnes of JetA1, plus a possible list of flammable cargo items) that it was virtually vaporised. Think of the scenes of the Boeings hitting the WTC. They were virtually vaporised, and we saw the unbelievable intensity and immensity of the explosiveness of many tonnes of JetA1 when it was all ignited at once.

Yes, some parts of the aircraft survived and fell into the sea in the Gulf of Thailand. They were so scattered, they never produced an identifiable field of debris, in a sea full of SE-Asian rubbish - and the heavier parts went straight to the bottom, over a wide area.

The reports of the reputed flight path, the so-called "pings" being followed, are all electronic noise being erroneously followed - like confetti being tracked, instead of the wedding.
It's been proven, as Mickjoebill pointed out, that ACARS events have been recorded long AFTER a crash silenced the power plants.
I cannot really believe, for one minute, that the supposed "aircraft track" to the West is following a flight deviation that involves a dog-leg path from waypoint to waypoint. There is limited fuel, a hijacker of any persuasion isn't going to ignore that fact.

It's stupidity to even conjecture that a path such as the dog-leg one outlined to the West, is the aircrafts path, and that it has been hijacked with evil intent.

Aircraft follow the laws of physics and the laws of physics state that man-made constructions fail, and airborne objects return to Earth faster than you can say Jack Robinson.

[Ian W]

Actually, an electrical fire would explain all of those things. For one, if there is an electrical fire (or a suspect electrical fire) turning off power to the affected system is exactly the right thing to do. It also could explain the flight path deviations because the an electrical fire in the cabin would not affect the engines but could affect the ability to control the plane.

FAA: Some Boeing 777s need fixes in case of fires (http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/05/09/boeing-777-fires/2147173/)

Batteries are NOT the only thing that can cause an electrical fire. The in- flight entertainment system can cause them too, see article above.

In that case there would have been an emergency call or at least a brief 7700 squawk. Even Swiss Air managed to talk to the controllers even as molten metal was raining in the cockpit. The time 1:07 for the ACARS log off was before the aircraft was handed over to Vietnam. So the nice good night from the pilot was as they were fighting a fire?

[SaturnV]

The main reporter for the NY Times story wrote it from Sepang Malaysia, he was assisted by two reporters in Washington.

The climb to 45,000 ft, the descent to 23,000 ft, are based on Malaysian military radar. The 40,000 foot descent in one minute is based on engine data, and is discounted as unreliable by 'investigators'. (The source for the 40,000 foot descent reference was a Washington official.) The two initial course changes, and flight then stabilizing at a cruise altitude of 29,500 feet are based on Malaysian military radar.

The NY Times article does not reference the VAMPI, GIVAL, IGREX waypoints.
The VAMPI waypoint looks to be near the island of Pulan Perak, where earlier reports said Malaysian military radar lost track of it.

GIVAL is about 54 NM from VAMPI.

[cynar]

In reply to Silanda --

Reuters and ABC News both independently have reported that there is data indicating that the plane flew for 4-5 more hours after transponder shutoff. Further, the WSJ has developed the story with additional sources subsequent to their scoop.

[porterhouse]

he so-called "pings" being followed, are all electronic noise being erroneously followed - like confetti being tracked, instead of the wedding. You have a right not to like the electronic evidence but frankly your so called "witnesses" can equally easily be dismissed. As per earlier examples of aircraft accidents human witnesses are notoriously unreliable. Find me a piece of a floating debris where those witnesses claim that something happen and then we are talking...

[Communicator]

Note that BA claims no such contract- and RR also claims no ( engine? ) data after a few minutes before transponder shut down.

I suspect that some technical types consider DATA only to be ( engine parameters and the like ) and the non technical types do NOT consider a simple ping to be DATA … or vice versa depending on background.

And about 99 percent of the media pundits don't know the difference.

So when RR says NO engine data - they **probably mean ** no engine parameters- and do not count a ping per se as DATA

The press probably thinks or defines NO DATA as being NO pings


Exactly. The closest analogy is an email client (think Outlook) checking in with the server every few minutes, even when there are no messages. Note that BA and RR as final recipients would NOT SEE these events - only actual messages are forwarded between the aircraft and BA and RR. Inmarsat's press release disclosed that Inmarsat has provided link data to its client SITA (which runs part of the ACARS service). SITA then forwarded the information to MAS.

Not sure how often ACARS pings occur - would guess somewhere between once every 5 minutes and once every hour.

[flt001]

About an hour into the flight, the plane's transponders stopped functioning

In the ensuing minutes, a second system sent a routine aircraft-monitoring message to a satellite indicating that someone made a manual change in the plane's heading, veering sharply to the west.

Those system-monitoring messages are suspected to have been disabled shortly afterward, according to some of these people.

"Increasingly, it seems to be heading into the criminal arena," said Richard Healing, a former member of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board.

WSJ - Source (http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB10001424052702304185104579439403486098062-lMyQjAxMTA0MDEwNDExNDQyWj)

[StormyKnight]

I'm totally against sharing this but it's had over 1 million views and the guy is getting money for advertising...despite the "second video" showing reg of the flight from the next day. Ie this is fake. Sick.

Busted! Flight Radar Caught Changing Flight Path of Malaysia Flight 370! - YouTube (http://youtu.be/hNZtz-HVy6c)

This had duped an awful lot of people, I do hope not related to NY Times though.

That video makes suggestions on this forum look far from fantasy.

This flight is from the next day. On FR select playback & choose UTC TIME of 2014-03-08 17:00 hours


The question is though is if this data from another flight be in obvious error, how can we rely on the actual flight data? Does ADS-B have error correction or CRC (Cyclic redundancy check)?

[island_airphoto]

So if we have a given of:
Inmarsat data is good

This seems a huge amount of trouble to go to if the end result was the plane in the sea. Why not just go right in right away?

So this seems to leave us with the plane actually is hidden somewhere or the plan failed for unknown reasons.

[GarageYears]

The claimed altitude of 45Kft seems highly implausible - balancing a pin on a knife-edge sort of thing. As for the claimed altitude loss of 40Kft in one minute, well, it doesn't seem likely there would be much left after trying that one. Am I wrong? Anyway one of the CNN talking heads (I forget who), but covering the Pentagon I think, basically dismissed this as information derived from the Malaysian radar system at the extreme limit of it's capabilities and likely highly unreliable. Any other supporting evidence?

[uqcodonn]

Aussiepax - it might be relatively easy to notice a turn in daytime when light levels and shadows in the cabin change in response to a turn (or you are sitting near a window) but it might not always be as detectable as many think. There's an excellent article on spatial disorientation in the current issue of Flight Safety Australia called 'Don't believe your ears". It also features Captain de Crespigny in an interesting experiment with a Barany chair and gives the methodology so anyone who's interested can replicate these somatogyral/somatogravic illusionary experiments with their own rotating chair at home. The author states that even the graveyard spiral isn't detectable to the inner ear - a pilot can still sense they are in straight and level flight. From the story... "One telling detail in how the vestibular apparatus functions is that the semi-circular canals have a stimulation threshold of two degrees a second. You will not feel yaws or rotations slower than this. Autopilot software on airliners exploits this fact; so that passengers are unaware an aircraft is zig-zagging to avoid storms or traffic. But the threshold also means pilots can't detect a slow divergence from straight-and-level flight."

Full article here:

Civil Aviation Safety Authority - FSA issue 97 - Don't believe your ears (http://www.casa.gov.au/scripts/nc.dll?WCMS:STANDARD::pc=PC_101919)

[jet_noseover]

cynar, DFDR would/will tell plenty. That can not be overridden. Whatever can be retrieved from CVR be a bonus.

[Passagiata]

Porterhouse:
You have a right not to like the electronic evidence but frankly your so called "witnesses" can equally easily be dismissed.Indeed & the witnessing doesn't all concur. Australia's Channel 7 stumped up a witness (Australian tourist I think) who said that a plane had flown low along their beach on the Malaysian peninsula in the middle of the night, heading west.

[p.j.m]

So if we have a given of:
Inmarsat data is good

I think the only given is that the Inmarsat data received is good. We don't know the limits of reception for the satellite system, or who its sent on to.

The data is likely used by numerous identities, not just forwarded (on a subscription basis) to MAS, or RR or the NSA etc

At this point in time its not known if the absense of data, equals the last location of the aircraft.

[island_airphoto]

I didn't mean to imply last Inmarsat record = end of the airplane. They could have finally found out how to turn it off. OTOH for the entire time it WAS on the plane had to be intact at least with electrical power.

[JanetFlight]

Interesting...

Re Missing Flight MH370: Smoke from North Sentinel Island « Roy Spencer, PhD (http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/03/re-missing-flight-mh370-smoke-from-north-sentinel-island/)

[SQGRANGE]

"The claimed altitude of 45Kft seems highly implausible - balancing a pin on a knife-edge sort of thing. As for the claimed altitude loss of 40Kft in one minute, well, it doesn't seem likely there would be much left after trying that one. Am I wrong?"
No, for a start why take the aircraft outside its safe operating altitude and to achieve such a rapid decent in one minute would probably cause immeasurable structural damage.
So if the intention was to "confuse" anyone by then flying somewhere else (after taking major steps to disable comms) why take that risk.
Brings this NYT info into serious question.

[barrel_owl]

Inmarsat's press release disclosed that Inmarsat has provided link data to its client SITA (which runs part of the ACARS service). SITA then forwarded the information to MAS.
Inmarsat simply stated that "routine, automated signals were registered on the Inmarsat network from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370" (link to the official Inmarsat webpage (http://www.inmarsat.com/news/inmarsat-statement-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370/)).

Maybe I am grossly misunderstanding their official statement, but honestly I can't read there any confirmation of what's being widely speculated on several mainstream sources and here during the last two days.

[nliving]

"#3523 (permalink)Hypoxia as a way to get compliant pax and cabin crew?
I suppose one way to make passengers and cabin crew compliant with any kind of nefarious activity on the flight deck would be to depressurize the aircraft slowly while the flight crew put on O2 masks. If everyone in the back has blacked out from hypoxia then there wouldn't be much resistance emanating from the cabin. Could this work?"

Yes, and as I suggested yesterday an environment of elevated CO2 would also incapacitate the passengers - whether intentional or as an accident. Once the passengers were unconscious O2 masks would be futile as the liter flow is too low.

Just wondering what a pilot would do if their entire passenger manifest were accidentally overcome (dead) by elevated CO2. Land in Beijing with Malaysia Airlines taking blame immediately, or ditch the plane in the deep ocean and leave speculation open for months if not years. My opinion only.

[olasek]

and the laws of physics state that man-made constructions fail
There is nothing in Physics about it.
But we know from statistical analysis of causes of aircraft accidents that what fails even more is pilot's mind.

[StormyKnight]

ABC News reports that two data systems were switched off with an interval of 14 minutes.

First at 1:07 AM the data transmission system was not sending data anymore, then at 1.21 AM the transponder did not sent any data.

ABC suggest this was done deliberatley.

The 'ping data' to satellites is the only system which cannot be shutdown manually.

Malaysia Airline Search Intensifies in Two Widely Separated Areas - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/International/malaysia-airline-search-intensifies-widely-separated-areas/story?id=22909835)

Since the data is not transmitted continuously this is not a valid conclusion. The ACARS Data is ONLY transmitted in very short bursts that can be up to 30 minutes (suggested normal interval by MAL CEO & others on this forum) apart in cruise. The LAST ACARS DATA transmitted (not ping) was at 1:07....but that doesn't mean the system stopped then, it just means that from then on till actual turn off, there was no issue with the engines i.e. no events & the time period between reporting had not expired so the ACARS did not need to transmit.

[training wheels]

Do you mean to tell me that pilots would not know to navigate by the stars?

Yes. Star navigation wasn't in the ATPL Nav syllabus in 2006 when I did mine. Maybe it was in 1956 when commercial aircraft carried a navigator on board?

[Sheep Guts]

The primary radar plots from the Malaysian military need to be confirmed with civilian counterparts and other military. If they can't they need to run a live test. Get a B777 and fly it on the SAME track and see what their radar returns are like. They could do this today just coordinate all agencies. Malay, Thai and military.
The area where these returns are reported is high traffic area. Flights to India to Phuket, Langkawi, Penang, Hadyai, Krabi etc etc. Also is this primary radar data accurate, with jumping flight levels sounds like different targets to me.

The Immersat info needs to be made public. Tell us what they exactly have. If it's just dumb keep alive pings it's next to useless. If they have plots they need to come forward.

[island_airphoto]

I know how to navigate by stars, but I learned it on a boat. It was not taught when I was in flight school in the 1980s.

[Passenger 389]

Onetrack,

Weren't the Kiwi rig worker "eyewitness" (who may well have seen something, just not the missing plane) and those 8 "earwitnesses" on the coast of Malaysia situated hundreds of miles apart? (Perhaps 750km or more, judging by one map posted earlier). Seems a mighty long way for either (let alone both) to have seen and heard a 777 "vaporize." It wasn't Krakatoa.

[SOPS]

Star navigation wasn't in the syllabus in 1977, when I did my ATPL. I have seemed to survive over 20000 hours without it.

[mickjoebill]

Remember that cabin crew have access to portable bottled air, the question is would this supply outlast the endurance of the pilots supply?
Temporarily venting air may not guarantee permanently disabling all of the cabin crew?

[MountainBear]

In that case there would have been an emergency call or at least a brief 7700 squawk. Even Swiss Air managed to talk to the controllers even as molten metal was raining in the cockpit. That all depends on the nature of the fire and where it began. Contrary to assertions it doesn't require a "raging" fire or "molten metal" to take out the comm systems. It is possible that some of the electrical systems were disabled on the plane before anyone smelled smoke or even realized there was a fire. Anyone who is interested in fire on board airplanes should read the entire accident report of the UPS 6 crash in the middle east (2010).

http://www.gcaa.gov.ae/en/ePublication/admin/iradmin/Lists/Incidents%20Investigation%20Reports/Attachments/40/2010-2010%20-%20Final%20Report%20-%20Boeing%20747-44AF%20-%20N571UP%20-%20Report%2013%202010.pdf

[olasek]

That all depends on the nature of the fire and where it began Then find an accident with fire which (roughly) fits data of this accident, so far you aren't even close.
Even on this UPS 6 flight you cite, with extremely fast spreading fire, the crew had time to declare emergency.

[DWS]

If you have cable- and access to Megan Kelly and rebroadcast- she has a panel of pilots, FAA, ex military, etc and spending the whole hour on the issue

debunking some, and trying to verify other info

I'm sure it will be rebroadcast ( i'm on PDST ) its 645 pm now,and her program will be on again at 9 pm my time

She also had by phone andy pastor of WSJ

On ex military type ( navy captain ) made an expected comment he doubted that then Pentagon/Navy would dispatch military assets into the Indian ocean just to give the troops sea time . . . . ( paraphrased )

And most believe then US has much more info than released

And most now believe it was a criminal act . .

One pilot explained that if pilot dumps pressurization at 30 K or higher, then passengers will be goners after a while …

Pinging is supposed to be on 1 hour intervals . .

[SMOC]

Phugoid Motion
I'll probably get deleted again, but still wondering after days why no one seems to have mentioned Phugoid, up & down motion lack of control, to explain staying in the air for hours without reaching an airport, and now, confirmation of extreme changes in altitude.

Damage to the a/c that led to lack of control leading to phugoid motion, eg. Engine Thrust only control, would allow the plane to fly around for hours with very little control over direction.

Phugoid - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Examples are:
1985- Japan Airlines Flight 123
1989- United Airlines Flight 232

I'm interested to know what role the 777s envelope protection would play in a disconnected A/P ghost flight?

[Innaflap]

I habent seen it mentioned on here but CNN is saying that there were lithium ion batteries in the hold.

CNN Exclusive: Analysis shows Flight 370 crashed in Indian Ocean - CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/14/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?c=intl-homepage-t&page=4)

[papershuffler]

As pointed out elsewhere, and IIRC already on this thread, pax could figure out the plane was off course by looking out of the window...downwards...at the dark sea they were flying over for hours and hours, when it should have been land, with lights every now and again.
That is, assuming they were conscious and the flight path went over the sea for a long period of time.

[StormyKnight]

Interesting...

Re Missing Flight MH370: Smoke from North Sentinel Island « Roy Spencer, PhD (http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/03/re-missing-flight-mh370-smoke-from-north-sentinel-island/)

Jim Thompson says:
March 14, 2014 at 2:33 PM
From Reuters about a hour ago (1541 EST):

(In reference to North Sentinal Island)

A fire spotted on an island inhabited by the Sentinelese tribe was unconnected to the missing flight, Rear Admiral Sudhir Pillai, Chief of Staff of the joint command, told Reuters

“I can confirm we’ve been watching the smoke on the island by air and by boats along the coast for some time,” Pillai said.

“But we believe it has nothing to do with the missing Malaysia Airlines plane,” he added, saying that it was possible that the fire was lit by the tribe, who are known to burn thick grassland.

He added that he believed the smoke on North Sentinel island started before the aircraft disappeared seven days ago.

[smiling monkey]

Even though I don't the fly the 777, it's obvious that climbing to 45,000 ft is not possible with the load they were carrying still only an hour in to the flight. 43,000 ft is the service ceiling of the 777, so 45,000 ft would be close to absolute ceiling and coffin corner, if they ever got that high.

[FE Hoppy]

smiling monkey Even though I don't the fly the 777, it's obvious that climbing to 45,000 ft is not possible with the load they were carrying still only an hour in to the flight. 43,000 ft is the service ceiling of the 777, so 45,000 ft would be close to absolute ceiling and coffin corner, if they ever got that high.

You need a performance course mate.

[bwohlgemuth]

Math.

40k service ceiling.

40k ft/min = 454mph = 395knots. And that's a straight nosedive from 45k. More than likely that would be at an angle of 30 degrees. Which means lateral velocity would be x3. That means a dive at almost 1200 knots. Mach 2.

45k - 40k descent = 5k to recover....

Lets say they use all 5k and skim 10 ft above the water.

40kft/min = 666.7ft/s / 32ft/s = 21g's That would be spread out over a space of 7 seconds. "ouch"

[CogSim]

A quick summary to keep us focused:

Official Confirmed

01:07 Last routine engine data transmission
01:17 Sign off Subang ATC
01:21 SSR lost (near IGARI)

Official Unconfirmed

01:21 Malasian military PSR picks up unidentified target at IGARI
No time provided: Target moves towards VAMPI and then towards GIVAL
02:15 Unidentified target turns towards IGREX and is lost on Malasian military PSR

Unofficial Unconfirmed

- MH370 makes a sharp turn to the west (speculation?)
(presumably someone putting together SSR lost of MH370 and PSR pick up of unidentified target at IGARI)
- Acars handshake signal detected for a few hours after SSR lost (leak, via WSJ)
- Altitude fluctuations at IGARI of unidentified PSR target (leak, via NYT)

Rumors

Everything else

[FE Hoppy]

The 40 descent in a minute is erroneous. The other data is from PSR and needs to be treated with caution.

The 45000ft alt is certainly attainable and probably maintainable. For all those shouting coffin corner, remember this is the absolute altitude at 1g. Not the 1.3g normally shown in your AFM. And with a zoom climb you can top out some way higher.

[jet_noseover]

galaxy flyer, sloppy post from bwohlgemuth,:

Can't go 45k and then can't survive a 40k/min plunge. At any angle above 60 degrees you are supersonic. Any angle above 60 degrees, the recovery is over 20+g's.

But at the same time the T7 would shed its parts while going down 40K in one min. Not including ANY angle. Add anything above 30 deg angle and you are talking aerobatics. 777 will not cooperate in this scenario

[Sheep Guts]

If this CNN report of lithium ion batteries is true, then it puts the likely hood of a Malay peninsula fly over as a maybe. The scaling down of the Vietnamese search is not a good idea.

[Towhee]

. For the flight time to Beijing, the center tank would most likely have been empty except for residual fuel as a matter of 777 procedure. The main wing tanks would have sufficient fuel for the trip. Could a short that caused a spark within a fuel boost pump have ignited the trapped vapor within the center tank?

The National Transportation Safety Board attributes the explosion of TWA Flight 800 off Long Island in 1996 to this cause. That accident involved a 747 and not a 777. Boeing recommended both a mechanical and procedural modification for the potential, but not totally verified, problem for many Boeing airplanes. Airlines began the modifications within two years after the investigation was complete. Did Malaysia Airlines comply with the modification?

From an article.

[wes_wall]

Problem in the cockpit. A rapid climb to FL450 for what ever reason, resulting in a stall, aircraft falls off, banks left, turns 130 degrees plus/minus and recovers in the mid 20s. Then on to where, and why.

[kopatuc]

I just want to ask 2 Q's to anyone with B777 Tech savvy.....

1. What damage would be caused to Avionics and, eventually, Nav A/T and A/P if 2 cups of coffee/liquid were dropped/spilt on the centre pedestal.?

2. How many water activated ELT's are carried on the B777.?

[GTC58]

Towhee

this can not happen to the B777 as the O2 in the center tank is replaced with nitrogen.

[ildarin]

Quote:
Originally Posted by MountainBear http://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-post8376651.html#post8376651)
This is a software and not a hardware issues so it depends on how the software is programmed. MS Windows is a good example. The computer OS knows whether you shut down normally or whether there was some type of power failure or abnormal shutdown. Whether the specific communications software on the 777 operates in a like fashion, I have no idea. I suspect it does not because I cannot think of any good reason why it should.

Maybe an upgrade of the software is required, so that on manual turn off, it sends a message saying "I'm switched off". But perhaps the black box records this data?

For what operational or safety issue, would it ever need to be turned off?


It catches fire, or something on the same circuit catches fire...

A lot of non-pilots seem to be posting comments about taking things out of the pilots' control.

If you folks insist on flying my airplane for me, you'll have to get yourself a type rating and do it right - I won't be on board.

[Capt Quentin McHale]

nliving,


Just curious as to your slow cabin depressurisation theory. Would'nt the cabin altitude switch automatically drop the pax oxy masks at a certain cabin alt/trip point WELL BEFORE pax fall unconscious.


Also, as the B777 is equipped with oxy generators overhead in the cabin for the pax. How do you measure the oxy litre flow, as the generators don't have gauges attached to them?

[GTC58]

B777 has 1 airframe mounted ELT and 2 portable ELT's.

[FE Hoppy]

Pax oxy auto deploy is dependent on the system being armed.

[GTC58]

The B777 has no oxygen generators. It is bottled crew and pax oxygen. Oxygen pressure is indicated on the Status page

[GTC58]

system is always armed. auto deploy can not be shutoff and masks drop automatically at approx. 13500' cabin altitude.

[xcitation]

A grizzly thought, would PF climb to FL450 after depressurizing the cabin to ensure all on board are KO'd because the drop down dixie O2 is not enough. At that altitude a pressurized O2 mask is required.

[Flugbegleiter]

A grizzly thought, would PF climb to FL450 after depressurizing the cabin to ensure all on board are KO'd because the drop down dixie O2 is not enough. At that altitude a pressurized O2 mask is required.
That was my thought, too... It certainly would make sense and would be the easiest way to eliminate any possible "problems" from pax or cabin crew.

[SOPS]

Hate to break the bad news, but the all,the fleet of the 777 a I fly have chemical generators for the pax. I guess it's an airline option.

[StormyKnight]

A grizzly thought, would PF climb to FL450 after depressurizing the cabin to ensure all on board are KO'd because the drop down dixie O2 is not enough. At that altitude a pressurized O2 mask is required.

It would be very interesting to see what was simulated....if that data was recorded.

[CommanderCYYZ]

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 pilots lauded for strong ties to the community | National Post (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/14/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-pilots-lauded-for-strong-ties-to-the-community/)

On the face of it, none of this would seem to indicate deranged or potentially terrorist pilots.

[selfin]

@Physicus (#3579):
You can zoom in here:
ArcGIS Viewer for Flex (http://gis.icao.int/flexviewer/)

Some FIR boundaries look similar, some don't. The ICAO boundary between Thailand and Malaysia, for example, zigs and zags a lot.

ICAO's GIS does not agree with Burma's declared Yangon FIR boundaries (Burma's ENR 2.1 here (http://www.dca.gov.mm/index.php/aeronautical-information)).
Skyvector also fails to correctly chart some of these FIR boundaries.

2. An oil rig worker, on a highly-elevated platform WITNESSED a fireball in the sky, in the correct direction, at height, right about the time of the aircrafts disappearance.

It's been advised, no space satellite of any superpower, picked up this fireball. Despite this seemingly impossible scenario, it can't be dismissed that all the sky surveillance missed this event. (#3595 Permlink (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-180.html#post8376535))

The photographed print of the email (link (http://vipmedia.globalnews.ca/2014/03/letter1.jpg)) sent by the rig worker Mike McKay does not contain an observation time. In his opening paragraph he states, "I believe I saw the Malaysian Airlines plane coming down. The timing is right." It is unfortunate that he did not give an accurate observation time.

In the email he furnishes estimates for distance and bearing ranges. His two references to the initial altitude are "... burning at high altitude ..." and "... at a lower altitude than the normal flight paths."

Considering McKay's postulate with some additional assumptions:


target at a distance of 50 km to 70 km from rig,
target on a true bearing of 255 to 285 degrees,
target at an altitude 10,000 to 25,000 ft AMSL,
target instantaneously adopts a random course after observation and glides without turning,
glide ratio is between 6:1 and 12:1,
no wind,
spherical earth

and assuming a triangular distribution for (1) and (2), a uniform distribution for (3) and (5) and a discrete uniform distribution for the new course in (4), then the 99% confidence ellipse for a 10,000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation can be plotted (link to map (http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/display/20140313091429-31028-map.html); link to coordinates (http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=RSLkAi0q)).

Although this location falls to the east of the area (http://r.tuoitre.vn/i/s500/2014/03/WR0D34UC.gif) initially searched by Vietnam, debris drifting SW at 2 to 3 knots would by now have travelled about 400 to 500 NM to shore. Furthermore, the McKay scenario appears to be contradicted by the significant additional evidence alluded to by the US and Malaysia indicating a westward crossing of the peninsula followed by prolonged flight (cf. 'pings'). It is not convincing that a burning aircraft would endure prolonged flight of 4 to 5 hours. I think we can therefore set the McKay observation aside vis-à-vis MH370.

[xgjunkie]

That all depends on the nature of the fire and where it began
Then find an accident with fire which (roughly) fits data of this accident, so far you aren't even close.

Valujet 592 fits PERFECTLY!

While they had time to issue a mayday, maybe the malaysian crew were taken by suprise and didnt get time.

[lhp]

...data transmissions, so the AC's equipment was subscribed and registered. The cell phone that's pinging without being subscribed should really have its settings mobile network boxes unchecked. That is what you would expect from a professional outfit like an airline.
I am puzzled by this pinging. If the electronic equipment and antenna is intact enough to send a signal to a satelite or cell tower, then why doesn't it send a datastream, even though there may be no data to collect due to other equipment failure? I strongly suspect that the military traced a different airplane, one that crossed paths with MH370 near the point where MH370 flew out of civilian radar range and lost the transponder. The pinging is generated by the plane that crossed MH370's path, but is not generated by MH370's equipment. Possibly the AC that the military radar tracked shot down MH370 or collided with it and kept on flying. That maybe why it chose the track along the boundaries of ATC's, so as to fall between the cracks, sort of speak.

[xgjunkie]

this CNN report of lithium ion batteries is true, then it puts the likely hood of a Malay peninsula fly over as a maybe. The scaling down of the Vietnamese search is not a good idea.

They have got that from here? I know i mentioned it a few thousand posts ago.

[bwohlgemuth]

But at the same time the T7 would shed its parts while going down 40K in one min. Not including ANY angle. Add anything above 30 deg angle and you are talking aerobatics. 777 will not cooperate in this scenario

Exactly...777 will not handle speed/g force/etc. Wherever that took place would have a large amount of debris as the plane fell apart.

The gruesome idea that the plane went to 40k and then depressurized to knock out the cabin is pretty horrible...but hypoxia would be faster than hypothermia.

Each day this story turns more and more into a bad movie plot.

[galaxy flyer]

It's already been posted, the data is likely in error and it didn't drop 40,000' in one minute.

[olasek]

Valujet 592 fits PERFECTLY! Doesn't fit AT ALL.
The ValuJet flight was over in minutes after the fire was detected.
maybe the malaysian crew were taken by suprise and didnt get time. Sure.. they didn't have time to utter a single sentence but instead had hours to wonder through the airspace, trying different directions, altitudes.... :ugh:

[ekw]

it is quite sad that a popular senior pilot with a passion and love of his job is being character assassinated on here - not cricket guys sorry
he's one of you

It is not about one person. No stone must be left unturned. The people who had the opportunity must be looked at objectively and that includes securing any evidence that might shed light on their innocence or otherwise. The longer they leave it to forensically examine the Home SIM the greater likelihood it can be tampered with.

[p.j.m]

I habent seen it mentioned on here but CNN is saying

I just saw an "expert" on CNN claim that there was a seismic event (earthquake/aircraft crash) in the exact location at the exact time that contact was lost with MH370 and that the area was a "non seismic" area.

Perhaps someone should let him know the "event" happened an hour after contact was lost, and that the area is inside the "Ring of fire" seismic zone! :eek:

[1a sound asleep]

All these suggestions about sabotage - maybe just maybe the supposed changes in heading/altitude were just a pilot trying to take control of a major systems/control failure. In the absence of any realistic motive or sabotage plan its possible there is no foul play. We are yet to question the absolute accuracy or detail of these pings and who has decoded them

[galaxy flyer]

So, while struggling to gain control, they enter a new flight plan, remain at altitude, cease any comms FOR FIVE HOURS!

[StormyKnight]

Guys, its simple it doesn't add up, but there will be an explanation in time...

[smiling monkey]

All these suggestions about sabotage - maybe just maybe the supposed changes in heading/altitude were just a pilot trying to take control of a major systems/control failure. In the absence of any realistic motive or sabotage plan its possible there is no foul play. We are yet to question the absolute accuracy or detail of these pings and who has decoded them

Well said. I was thinking the same as well. The fact of the matter is, no-one knows 100% what happened to MH 370. What about the right to be innocent until proven guilty? A lot of people on here making sensationalist accusations with little or no proof. :rolleyes:

[olasek]

maybe just maybe the supposed changes in heading/altitude were just a pilot trying to take control of a major systems/control failure. It is clear from the path (if the path is correct) they did not have big problems with controlling the jet, they could climb, descend, they could fly perfectly straight and make turns. Frankly the scenario that flight controls are busted and at the same time ALL communications channels are also down while the jet remains airborne for hours is so unlikely that alien abduction is probably equally likely at this point.

[truth_hurts]

It managed to pass through Indonesian and Thai airspace undetected, which is a bad sign for both countries air defense, if it dropped to a low altitude say -it may not be visible to radar.

[Retired Boeing]

A very few 777 carriers paid for bottled oxygen option for the pax cabin. Nearly all have chemical generators (plus a handful of portable bottles) for cabin crew.

[Heli-phile]

The dumb, ignorant ill-informed nonsense that is being posted about this incident is getting me down. Is there a way to limit posts to industry only, Maybe CPL/ATPL holders....any ideas! Im sure this has happened before but this thread seems the worst ever and media will start adopting some of these far fetched brain dumps as plausible. 40,000'/min descent is a great example!

:*:*

[hillberg]

No Smokin hole or water debris ,Nothing, just like the comms.

No answer today, No answers at all. All points to getting jacked .

What does the insurance carriers say? Cargo or pax for ransom?

Someone dreaming to become the next Airheart?

[91XRAY]

< harragote >

Isn't there a relatively simple process of deduction re: the possible primary radar sighting of an aircraft over the Malacca Strait, I.e. if it wasn't MH370, then what aircraft was it? That issue is a sub-story in itself.

If it was another aircraft with a low radar sig, did it play a part in the demise of MH370, either intentionally or unintentionally? Did one plane limp off west and the other limp off east? Was it fast moving from east to west and collided with MH370?

Are the Malaysians behaving like they're under duress from another nation (China or the US) with regards to what they're comfortable saying publicly about what actually happened?

It's just another theory, but speculation will continue 'til some hard facts emerge.
I believe there are roughly three or four posts in this wonderful thread that at least allude to this question.

And it is one well worth asking in expanded form ie any body have LOA of any kind in the area ? Manned or unmanned ??


For many of the 'aftermath' speculations this could fit.

In otherwords, the key critical first event was a mid collision of some kind.

And yes, one can wonder about that other track.

One Malaysian official when queried as to why they let it go over came back with something alone the lines of it '- appeared friendly'.


Many appear unsatisfied with this 'minor' aspect of the tale.

It does on the first pass, seem more than strange that unidentified airspace intrusion of this type is not a concern.


However, perhaps...... this kind of observation is a regular thing ??

And if you think about it, perhaps a regular ( and arranged ??? ) drone crossing point or similar ?


Then, we can look at the media.

To the best of my knowledge, this possibility or speculation has not once been raised, while they are quite willing, in some cases, to go off the deep end with many other.


Well, who knows, but sometimes what is not said is @ least as useful as what is.

[Sheep Guts]

CNN Report
CNN Exclusive: Analysis shows Flight 370 crashed in Indian Ocean - CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/14/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?c=intl-homepage-t&page=4)

"Among the things being considered is whether lithium batteries in the cargo hold, which have been blamed in previous crashes, played a role in the disappearance, according to U.S. officials briefed on the latest developments in the investigation. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release details to the media.
If the batteries being carried on the plane caused a fire, it still doesn't fully explain other anomalies with Flight 370, the officials say."

I would love to know where the Cargo manifest was disseminated from? And who their source is?
The cargo on board if any is still a missing piece of information here.
Could an uncontrolled lithium ion battery fire in the forward cargo cut all cabling from the avionics to the rest of the aircraft ie. antenna cables etc? Is the proximity forward cargo to the avionics bay and cabling close enough to warrant concern?
New ICAO / IATA lithium ion battery carrying rules were implemented last year world wide.

[techgeek]

Endurance must be less than 7 hours if acft maneuvered as much as now being reported. Especially if most of the flight was at FL230. A much narrower search area should be established based on new data from Malaysian PSR and Inmarsat packets.

Based on known flight to IGARI then assuming acft DM FL230 and went D VAMPI D GIVAL D IGREX anyone want to hazard a guess at the range after IGREX?

[fatlittlepig]

the totality of what we know at this point IMHO, points to deliberate "hijacking" of the plane by either the captain or copilot. an external hijacker is not going to be savvy or technically proficient to fly through these navigational waypoints, in addition the pilot apparently timed the flight diversion to after the plane left the first country's air traffic control etc.

I suspect this will turn out to be suicide by pilot, I believe for whatever reason he was trying to hide his plot in this odd way. if they haven't already investigated thoroughly the pilots personal life's, financial situation, evidence of depression etc that would be a serious oversight.

[jimmydfw]

I find it odd that the First Officer is outed on Australian TV as having broken security protocol by inviting a couple of highschool girls on the flight deck and trying to hook-up with them while they were on holiday in Thailand. I can venture that was not an isolated event as well. The forum's attitude here was that its unfortunate the media portrayed him like that and he shouldn't be remembered that way. Also noting the captain on that flight will likely face disciplinary action (rightly so). Even if, and I'll admit it, they don't look like the terrorist types, it demonstrates a willy-nilly attitude towards his duties and responsibilities on the flight-deck as well as security.

Captain Shah on the other hand, has had no reports of wrong doing (so far). He's demonstrated a love for flying with his #1 Carreer #2 RC models #3 Flight Sim hobby. Contrary to the FO, Capt. Shah is immediately suspect because he has an over the top computer gaming setup? You guys need to give it a rest. Its a hobby, something to throw time and money at and a pretty interesting hobby to many people.

I'm sure there are plenty of people here (myself included) whom some would think they have gone overboard on a hobby and have way too many putters or drivers. Who on here has spent more than $2,500 on a bicycle? Fishing equipment? Home theater system? Classic cars? Gun collection? Ham radio setup?

Also, I'd venture to guess that a capt. wih 18,000+ hours probably wouldn't need to 'practice' cutting the circuit beakers and flipping a u-turn in the sim. More likely, he spends most of his sim time flying WW2 fighters in dogfights or gliders over the Alps.

One more thing, from looking through capt. Shah's youtube history, it appears he was most likely an atheist and certainly not any kind of religious nutjob terrorist candidate.

[CYTN]

SKY REPORTING - Malaysian official reporting plane hijacked

[ana1936]

Last satellte traces of plane are from 1000 miles west of Perth

Missing Malaysian Jet Said Tracked to Ocean Off Australia - Bloomberg (http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-14/india-looking-for-malaysian-jet-as-u-s-sees-air-piracy.html)

(post edited to correct error in units: thsnks for feedback)

[mickjoebill]

We are yet to question the absolute accuracy or detail of these pings
and who has decoded them

The reliability of ACARS was questioned days ago by referencing the discrepancies on 9/11 data.

[Tfor2]

How about the future? What will change? Henceforth, ALL planes need to have an I.D. broadcasting at ALL TIMES whilst in the air, and NOT under the control of the cockpit. This will not only discourage future events of this kind, but will serve PAX with the comforting knowledge that never again will they be at the mercy of terrorists, mentally challenged pilots, or disorganized authority. The technology has existed for a long long time, and that it has never been used is unforgivable.

[xgjunkie]

Valujet 592 fits PERFECTLY!
Doesn't fit AT ALL.
The ValuJet flight was over in minutes after the fire was detected.

maybe the malaysian crew were taken by suprise and didnt get time.
Sure.. they didn't have time to utter a single sentence but instead had hours to wonder through the airspace, trying different directions, altitudes....

Rubbish! the aircraft took off 2:04pm. At 2:10 the pilots became aware they were on fire, at 2:13 the pilots were incapacitated and the aircraft impacted water. It took less than three minutes to destroy that aircraft. From pilots first awareness. That fire was very fast moving and this one could have been equally so.
There are NO officials FROM the search effort saying the aircraft flew longer than last contact other than the media. I suppose you are another rascist that doesnt believe the Malaysians are capable of conducting SAR effectively.

[olasek]

The reliability of ACARS was questioned days ago by referencing the discrepancies on 9/11 data.This has long time ago been debunked as total rubbish. There was no discrepancy in ACARS data, there were however ACARS msgs sent to those aircraft after they were already destroyed on 9/11.

[JanetFlight]

At 5 UTC Malaysian PM will adress to the world...according latest dev. by the Malaysia Gov and Secret Services they almost reach the conclusion of a Hijacking case:

Missing Malaysia Plane Was Hijacked (http://news.sky.com/story/1226362/missing-malaysia-plane-was-hijacked)

[porterhouse]

It took less than three minutes to destroy that aircraft.Correct! therefore that accident has nothing to do with MH370 were aircraft was airborne for hours, are you incapable of understanding that? Yes, the media so far is the only source of data, if you don't like what media writes don't read this thread. If you don't believe what CNN says about Pentagon's analysis - go directly to Pentagon. Or better travel to Malasia and search for clues yourself because I suspect you won't believe anybody.

[mabuhay_2000]

I don't agree with your sentiment.

I am not a pilot, but I am a VERY experienced investigator and AVSEC expert.

This is no longer about flying, per se. This is now an investigation to find the aircraft and, I would suggest, people like me are far more qualified in that regard than holders of flying licences!

However, I see no real problem with people who have various relevant skills pooling their knowledge and experience to try and figure it out. In the course of figuring it out, a lot of extreme ideas will be put forward and then be dismissed as and when information is forthcoming. That is the nature of investigations, no?

Whilst I would say that, in the vast majority of cases, the obvious cause is the correct one, there are the odd cases where something left-field turns out to be the cause. That sifting requires solid, corroborated information. None of us has access to that right now.

We can posit ideas based on various assumptions, but you know what they say about assuming? To assume makes an ASS of U and ME, as I was taught decades ago on an intelligence analysis course run by the government that employed me at the time. A course run by the best in the business, I might add!

So, where does all that leave us? Basically, in terms of solid facts, pretty much right where we were when the story went public last Saturday.

If, IF, for example, the Immarsat data proved to be accurate, along with the Malaysian radar data, we could eliminate a whole lot of theories and shut down a large of chunk of the SAR effort.

Until such time as that firms up, they'll have to keep looking pretty much everywhere within the flight range, as fuelled.

I feel sorry for the Malaysians, frankly. They have half the world on their case.

[PieChaser]

How about the future? What will change? Henceforth, ALL planes need to have an I.D. broadcasting at ALL TIMES whilst in the air, and NOT under the control of the cockpit. This will not only discourage future events of this kind, but will serve PAX with the comforting knowledge that never again will they be at the mercy of terrorists, mentally challenged pilots, or disorganized authority. The technology has existed for a long long time, and that it has never been used is unforgivable.

Maybe they already do!!

[radar2425]

I'm not a professional pilot but I do spend my days in front of the scopes. Just wanted to ask a quick question--hopefully without getting blown up :uhoh:

Let's assume that the AC really did make the left turn at the time of alleged disappearance and seem to follow a direct-to-fix to VAMPI then GIVAL and eventually IGREX (and who knows where beyond that).
Would those fixes have had to been manually dialed in or would they show up on one of the many glass screens as an available "go direct" option with the push of a button? I am just guessing that since they were so far off the intended (loaded?) flight path that they wouldn't be.
I do not pretend to know what has really happened (partial crew incapacitation, hijackers, etc). But I'm curious about the possibility of at least someone being in control for a while and managing to stay aloft.

[mabuhay_2000]

Oh, and I forgot to mention the geo-political angle.

There are a number of countries with dogs in this race. As I know from experience, governments are ruthless. They will not care one jot for the feelings of the families of the pax and crew. Not one jot. I have seen people's characters destroyed for the 'national interest'.

Governments will do whatever is best for their own interests. Whatever they say publicly should be treated with healthy scepticism until the aircraft is found, if it ever is found. If one of them wants that aircraft never to be found, it will probably never be found.

That's the reality of how things work, however distasteful it is to the honourable and decent amongst us.

[Airbubba]

Article in a a Canadian newspaper


Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 pilots lauded for strong ties to the community | National Post

On the face of it, none of this would seem to indicate deranged or potentially terrorist pilots.

From the article above:

Fariq was a “good boy, a good Muslim, humble and quiet,” said Ahmad Sarafi Ali Asrah, the head of a mosque near Fariq’s two-story home in a middle-class neighborhood on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur.

Similarly, first officer Gamil al Batouti was praised after the Egyptair 990 crash:

An observant Muslim, Mr. Batouti prayed five times a day, in accordance with Islamic teachings, his relatives said. He made a pilgrimage last winter to Mecca, accompanied by his wife, Umayma Dahi, whom he had married in 1965 and is the mother of the couple's five children.

Only occasionally did he return to his home village, but he usually did so during Ramadan, when he would distribute cash to the poor in accordance with Islamic tradition.


EgyptAir Pilot, From Privileged Background to a Terrible Prominence - New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/25/us/egyptair-pilot-from-privileged-background-to-a-terrible-prominence.html?src=pm&pagewanted=2&pagewanted=all)

However, Gamil al Batouti was facing a possible termination hearing after exposing himself to underage girls at the Hotel Pennsylvania in Manhattan.

See: FBI Exposes EgyptAir Pilot | The Smoking Gun (http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/crime/fbi-exposes-egyptair-pilot-0)

Oddly enough, the NTSB archive seems to be missing the 70 plus page FBI report on al Batouti that was originally posted and discussed here on PPRuNe.

The argument against suicide was made here in the pre-911 SU 990 mishap since 'Muslims don't commit suicide'. Similarly, on this thread the possibility of terrorism was dismissed in early posts 'because Malaysia is a Muslim country'.

I was initially skeptical but given what we now know, I believe a closer look at the crew would certainly be warranted.

If it was me, I'm sure they would check even if the preacher said I sang in the choir at Beulah Baptist.

"You know, now that I think about it, Airbubba did always seem a little strange..."

[Neogen]

At 5 UTC Malaysian PM will adress to the world...according latest dev. by the Malaysia Gov and Secret Services they almost reach the conclusion of a Hijacking case:

Missing Malaysia Plane Was Hijacked

The official said that hijacking was no longer a theory. "It is conclusive."

Another twist or all the time they knew this and were negotiating with the hijackers..

[xgjunkie]

It took less than three minutes to destroy that aircraft.
Correct! therefore that accident has nothing to do with MH370 were aircraft was airborne for hours, are you incapable of understanding that? Yes, media so far is the only source of data, if you don't like what media writes don't read this thread. If you don't believe what CNN says about Pentagon's analysis - go directly to Pentagon.


Really!
Im not at all concerned what a overhyped media is saying, they are clutching at straws and a stack of mis-information, it sells papers and appeals to morons and high school kids.
I am an empiricist and am happy to accept what Malaysian officials say until they give me cause for concern.

What is it that many of you here simply cannot accept that this aircraft didnt exist minutes after last contact like so many dozens of others.

Statistically, reality and history is on my side.

This plane crashed shortly after last contact.

Any of you who actually fly through SE Asia like to suggest ATC wouldnt issue alarm about an unidentified primary contact flying through their airspace heading west over the Malay peninsula.

ATC didnt see it therefore it didnt happen!

[1a sound asleep]

Missing Malaysia plane MH370 said to be traced to sea off Australia (http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/se-asia/story/missing-malaysia-plane-mh370-said-be-traced-sea-australia-20140315)

KUALA LUMPUR - The last satellite transmission from a Malaysian airliner missing for a week has been traced to the Indian Ocean off Australia

[olasek]

many of you here simply cannot accept that this aircraft didnt exist minutes after last contact like so many dozens of others. Wow!
What else do you have in store for us? What piece of infinite wisdom??
Malaysian government doesn't believe it, US government doesn't believe it but you are free to post your nonsense on this forum - good luck.

[p.j.m]

KUALA LUMPUR - The last satellite transmission from a Malaysian airliner missing for a week has been traced to the Indian Ocean off Australia

Interesting... (if true) The authorities must have know this for days! But surely the Jindalee oth radar would have picked it up if it headed towards Australia.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4d/JORS.svg/300px-JORS.svg.png

Flight 370 may have flown beyond its last known position about 1,000 miles west of Perth, and that location may not be an indication of where the plane ended up, said the person, quoted by Bloomberg

[grimmrad]

It is getting very strange - first west-ward traces towards India, now near Australia? Ever occurred to someone that this is probably the first case of an airplane incident where sources of information are said to be from the White House. Prime ministers addressing the public, explanations followed by denials...
It is certainly unusual and the fact that from the US side even the WH is involved in the flow of information seems to indicate that this is more than a technical issue. Just my 2 c (until deleted)

[mattfl]

Fox News just announced jet was hijacked:

Investigators conclude missing jet hijacked, steered off course, official says | Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/14/malaysia-airlines-search-heads-toward-indian-ocean/)

Seems like another Ethiopian 691:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_961 (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/14/malaysia-airlines-search-heads-toward-indian-ocean/)

[Bitmonx]

At this point it is almost equally interesting to find out what happened to MH370 and why it took more than a week to find out where it most likely is.

[xgjunkie]

Wow!
What else do you have in store for us? What piece of infinite wisdom??
Malaysian government doesn't believe it, US government doesn't believe it but you are free to post your nonsense on this forum - good luck.


I wait with anticipation the Malaysian PM address, I suspect he will say nothing new other than they suspect possible hijacking as they are unable to locate the wreckage.
Other than that, to my knowledge the Malaysian govt is not claiming the aircraft flew west as yet. The US government says they are confident it did but not 100% sure. The Australians have not been told at all considering the aircraft would most likely if your silly senario had a scintilla of reality be in their jurisdiction for SAR efforts.
It seems to me a lot of misinformation generated particularly by a clueless media.
I guess we will find out in time.

[drop24]

Last sattelite traces of plane are from 1000km west of Perth

Not to nitpick but the report says miles not KM. If it was 1000 km it's conceivable that the plane could have landed in Western Australia but 1000 miles likely means it ended up in the ocean. Sounds like after his joyride up to FL450, 40000 ft/min descent roller coaster, and deceptive course changes, he decided to head for the place where the wreckage was least likely to be found, the South Indian Ocean.

[Space Jet]

I don't think the PM has been to any press conference so for him to attend there must be a preety good update.

[xgjunkie]

If you are an empiricist, then you should be sitting there saying that, right now, we have no idea where the plane is because we have no FACTS to go on, other than it has disappeared.

I believe i am, end of contact, fireball observed, boom by witnesses.

Those are the only facts so far that Malaysia has announced.

Everything else is media hype, you guys have invested so much time in wild theories from everything to anoxic crew to alien abduction. Its ridiculous and sad. I feel sorry for the families who are being given false hope by this sorry episode of schoolboy tomfoolery.

How about we trust that the Malaysians are competent adults who know what they are doing.

[StormyKnight]

Heaps of posts on twiiter reporting MH370 was hijacked.

Also that the Prime Minister will hold a press conference at 1PM local time (5:00UTC) i.e. in 1 minute...

I assume it will be on Live TV | Astro Awani (http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live) which currently is showing a replay of yesterdays press conference.

[NoEngine]

OK am new to this forum, and yep, am annoyed by "speculation".

The "news" in my part of the planet is somewhat confusing.

"Facts" seem to be sparse.

can some one tell me me exactly how much fuel was loaded onto MH370 at KL. How far could it have flown?

[jugofpropwash]

I find it odd that the First Officer is outed on Australian TV as having broken security protocol by inviting a couple of highschool girls on the flight deck and trying to hook-up with them while they were on holiday in Thailand. I can venture that was not an isolated event as well. The forum's attitude here was that its unfortunate the media portrayed him like that and he shouldn't be remembered that way. Also noting the captain on that flight will likely face disciplinary action (rightly so). Even if, and I'll admit it, they don't look like the terrorist types, it demonstrates a willy-nilly attitude towards his duties and responsibilities on the flight-deck as well as security.

I'm curious why the FO is being blamed for that incident? Isn't the Captain in charge of the aircraft? At worst, I would think that the FO would be guilty of going along with it - or perhaps for not reporting it afterwards.

Being a long time reader of Pprune has taught me about the Asian mindset of not questioning one's superiors - would that not come into play here?

[Runcible]

Now that it's been officially declared to be unlawful interference, you'd have to take a contrarian view in questioning this paranoid conclusion - via the other possibilities.

Simply assuming that "somebody" was switching off comms equipment is to disregard a more simplistic explanation - such as an avionics bay/ main load centre explosion/fire that progressively disabled systems. A progressive failure that was epicentric to aircraft electrical (and thus also avionics) system integrity could conceivably knock out comms, transponders, ACARS etc and distract the pilots (getting on oxy, getting their oxy mask mikes to work, talking to the rear).

So after such an event, assuming the aircraft remained controllable, what would the pilots have left? Radio comms? Transponder? Flight instruments for control on a dark night? If there was a discernible horizon but despite cloud cover below to hide any land-mass, it may well have been controllable - however directionality might have been a problem (did they have an E2A wet compass?). So if they turned back towards KL in an essentially electrically inert airframe, it may have been a rough guess heading based on a timed turn and nothing by way of electronic navigation.

What might have happened in regard to height keeping? Was their altimeter disabled? Would that have led to a purported momentary excursion to 45,000 ft? If a 777 aircraft is partially electrically inert, what happens in respect of maintaining cabin altitude? Would the pilots be (or become) aware of any insidious depressurization? How long would their oxygen last? Would they be facing inevitable loss of consciousness if they'd remained at height - leading to the aircraft droning on westward (on autopilot or not). Could the pilots have become disabled leading to a Helios type scenario with a 3rd party (pax or rear-end crew) using the code to access the cockpit and trying to operate the aircraft?

Alternatively, although the cockpit door can prevent terrorist ingress, maybe the terrorist network became aware that they could access the avionics bay from the forward galley - and thus disable the aircraft from there via covertly disrupting comms and avionics (and cabin pressurization?) in an orderly sequence. One of their first tasks may have been to kill the cockpit to rear internal comms, thus leaving the pilots to wonder "What in hell is happening here?" -as various systems warnings cooked off).

After any such nasty terrorist disruptions in the avionics bay, the pilots would be left in a similar scenario to that described above, i.e. "flying by the seat of the pants on a dark and moonless night over-ocean". It would be challenging to say the least, even in daylight.

I doubt that all possibilities have thus far been credibly canvassed. The various data-points thus far established may be explicable via the technical intricacies encompassed within either of the above scenarios.

I'd like to hear any contrary views.

[RifRaf3]

The posts about heading changes and who might be making them ignore the fact that the average, GPS equipped, mobile phone or tablet running an FMS app pre-loaded with a planned hijack route can be easily followed in HDG SEL mode by a child. No need for astro, FMS input training, flight plan changes, or other silly suggestions. It's more capable than the FMS in some older types and was often used as a backup, albeit unapproved.

[RatherBeFlying]

Would they be heading to the Terres australes et antarctiques françaises:confused:

That's about all there is West of Perth. No airports and not much likelihood of landable beaches.

[porterhouse]

It seems to me a lot of misinformation generated particularly by a clueless media.Most disinformation is coming in fact from you.
Because while others are pursuing various leads you already know what happened - that the aircraft plunged to the ocean within minutes.

How about we trust that the Malaysians are competent adultsThen make up your mind - if they are competent adults truly their government knows what it is saying. If they are competent adults your statements are nothing but a poppycock.

[xgjunkie]

. Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, who is leadingthe investigation denied it.
"It is not conclusive. I'm heading the investigation and nobody is saying that. It's not true. We are looking at the possibility, we're looking at all possibilities. We're doing every profile of the passengers and crew but there is no firm evidence or leads so far," he told the Telegraph.

Apparently the investigation team do not believe the plane was hijacked.

I hope the Malaysian PM calms everybody down and asks the media to respect the families

[jugofpropwash]

well in fact if the reports are true that the aircraft has been jacked then all those that wrote in to cast doubts on the crew and the crews motives for owning a flight sim should now hold heads in shame.

Um, the way I'm reading it, it appears that their definition of hijacking includes the possibility that it was hijacked by some portion of the crew. Unless/until I see evidence otherwise, to me it appears that those with the greatest opportunity were in the cockpit. Not saying either is guilty - but if I were charged with investigating the disappearance, it's certainly where I would start looking.

[xgjunkie]

Then make up your mind - if they are competent adults truly their government knows what it is saying.

Remind me again Porterhouse what the govt is saying officially?

My view is this plane crashed minutes after last contact. History has many instances in the past where very little debris was found.

But if you have an altered perception of reality then go ahead, publish it.

[fred_the_red]

"While the media focus has so far been on the so-called 27-year-old "party pilot" Fariq Abdul Hamid, who broke airlines rules by inviting two women passengers into the cockpit of plane in 2011, attention has now swung to the 53-year-old senior pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah.
Advertisement
Television journalists in Kuala Lumpur reported that police had raided Mr Zaharie's home as evidence emerged pointing to piracy or pilot suicide, but officials denied it, saying his background was under the same scrutiny as all the 239 people on board."

Read more: Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Investigators suspect MH370 deliberately flew off-course (http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-investigators-suspect-mh370-deliberately-flew-offcourse-20140315-hvj2d.html#ixzz2w0PmMQhK)

[xgjunkie]

. Runcible
Yes, the fire theory has a problem, doesn't it?

That being that the aircraft seems to have flown on for another 5 hours.

A fire severe enough to take out all electronics, but not bring the aircraft down until it flamed out, hours later?

Seems highly unlikely!

Except it didnt. You are all pinning your hopes desperately on this inmarset report.

[mabuhay_2000]

I'll remind you.

They are saying they DON'T KNOW. They are not committing to ANY THEORY at present. Presumably because there are no FACTS to support any theory.

And, please, cite me any previous air crash where the aircraft crashed in shallow water, really shallow water in oceanic terms, and left not a single trace.

I cannot think of a single one.

[ZAZ]

Re OTHR Jindalee


Err no it would not have tracked the flight.




Its a daylight test radar looking for boats.

[xgjunkie]

I understand I might be upsetting some ego's here but if this Inmarset info is 100% correct then why then are the Malaysians not using that as conclusive proof that the aircraft continued flying. They are not.
They are still searching in the last contact area.

How about a dose of logic. Anything else means you lot thinks the Malaysian investigators are totally incompetent.

[philipat]

Perhaps because it involved triangualtion with "Other Satellites" which Government(s) don't necessarily want you to know about?

[VH-UFO]

"Its a daylight test radar looking for boats"

Rubbish!

[D.S.]

How about a dose of logic. Anything else means you lot thinks the Malaysian investigators are totally incompetent. News flash - almost everyone on the planet feels the Malaysian Officials are
1) Incompetent
2) Unsure how to handle the situation
3) Hiding inconvenient truths that make them look bad
4) All of the above

A commentary carried by China’s state news agency Xinhua (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-03/15/c_126270157.htm) demanded: “Why is the silence on the flight being kept so long?”
Complaining that officials had been largely silent, it added: “Mounting evidence points to the theory that, including the possibilities of pilot error or terrorist activity, the loss of MH370 with 239 people on board is a man-made event rather than the result of a mechanical breakdown.
“If sabotage is not ruled out, withholding information from the public can be dangerous, even lethal.”


that is relayed by the Guardian, a site which has been trying to downplay the possibility of hijacking.terrorism since day one. It comes from this article which lists many of the real facts some here desperately don't want to hear


Flight MH370: Malaysians convinced missing airliner was hijacked | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/flight-mh370-malaysians-convinced-missing-airliner-was-hijacked)


...and I just want to say how comical it really is that the "evidence" is that the plane made last verbal contact somewhere and someone in no position to see the crash says he saw the crash per a Government who is on record saying something, saying they didn't say it a few hours later, then saying it again the next day.


The really odd thing though? If one really believed the Malaysian Government and Eye Witnesses then they would believe the plane went West!


After all, the very first thing the Malaysian Government said was the plane went missing at 2:40 (not 1:30) there was evidence it turned West and that there were multiple eye witnesses spotting a plane flying near the Malaysia/Thailand border at roughly 1:45. Why are those facts provided by the Malaysian Government the ignored ones, but the ones that make zero sense and has every Government there is questioning their ability to give straight answer the only things believed?


Just because you desperately, obsessively want something to be true, doesn't mean it is. This goes for both a poster or two here, and the Malaysian Government.

[The Wawa Zone]

Hey Mr. Sheep, do you know if ACARS sends a 'shutting down' message home when shut down in the normal way, or does it just go silent from that point on ?

[1a sound asleep]

San Francisco Live Video: ABC7 News (http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/live)

LIVE STREAM

[mabuhay_2000]

To be fair, my interactions with the Malaysian police during my time in the RHKP were good. They were efficient and competent. Admittedly, that's going back a couple of decades now, but I see no reason why that would have changed much.

[StormyKnight]

San Francisco Live Video: ABC7 News (http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/live)

LIVE STREAM


This one also showing live video from the conference now....note conference itself has NOT started.
http://www.livestation.com/reuters?source=redirect#

[CommanderCYYZ]

Any interactions I have had with police, or any officials in MAL have, without exception, involved the passage of money. Nothing else seems to work.

Just getting her a police record report to immigrate to Canada took 18 months, a trip to the Malaysian High Commission, a trip to KL and an amount of cash.

Then again, she's Chinese Malaysian.

[p.j.m]

Re OTHR Jindalee

Err no it would not have tracked the flight.

Its a daylight test radar looking for boats.

err what?

Jindalee Operational Radar Network - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_Operational_Radar_Network)

Officially the system allows the Australian Defence Force (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Defence_Force) to observe all air and sea activity north of Australia to distances of 3000 km

The JORN is so sensitive it is able to track planes as small as a Cessna 172 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cessna_172) taking off and landing in East Timor 2600 km away

[Sheep Guts]

Wa wa,

Don't know that one sorry. Last ACARS to MAS was 0107am. This Satelite pinging is still to be clarified as to what type of info was coming back. If it was just benign keep a lives, then it maybe useless data.

[Frenchwalker]

For those that dont understand bahasa malay the pm is delayed ....its normal malay time GMT whatever ;)

[ZAZ]

The extent of available JORN coverage and actual system performance is highly variable and principally dependent on the state of the ionosphere, environmental conditions and an object's size and construction.


AT 200am there is no path to that region on 24MHZ which the JORN uses check your ips charts
The RAAF guys live in the Alice and go to work at 800am

[Icarus2001]

s will not only discourage future events of this kind, but will serve PAX with the comforting knowledge that never again will they be at the mercy of terrorists, mentally challenged pilots, or disorganized authority.

Do you see how ridiculous your comments are?

The pax are ALWAYS at the mercy of the highly trained pilots. Being able to track the aircraft cannot stop that just like speed cameras do not stop speeding and CCTV does not stop crime, it is merely a tool for investigation and prosecution.

Really is this the standard of critical thinking you posess?

[flash8]

to me the clearest indicator would be the time the transponder failed/disabled after TOC, if it was within minutes I'd strongly suspect a human aspect to this. Can anyone clarify the timing?

[Pin Head]

It was a heist.

6tonnes of gold on board.

[parabellum]

There is limited fuel, a hijacker of any persuasion isn't going to ignore that fact.


Unfortunately not so. Some hijackers have no interest in making a successful landing, Ethiopian B767, for example or, more obviously 9/11.
Others have shown no realistic appraisal of an aircraft's range capability, ordering crews of short haul B737 over Europe to fly direct to the Middle East and been unable to comprehend that a landing for refuelling would be necessary.

[Voodoo1977]

Just wondering two things:

1. Would shutting down one engine extend the range? If so, by how much?
2. Also thought it was a pretty strange that on day one the US sent only one ship to the area. Maybe they knew that there was nothing to find.

[Patsplace]

What would be the length of runway, absolute minimum, if you had no intention to ever take off again, would you need for a 777?

[FIRESYSOK]

It was a heist.

6tonnes of gold on board.

Source please

[me myself and fly]

Malaysian PM - Comms disabled, transponder switch off.

[me myself and fly]

Malaysian PM - Plane was Hijacked

EDITED actual wording

Flight 370's movements are consistent with 'deliberate' action 'by someone on the plane' - Malaysian Prime Minister

[StormyKnight]

Malaysia Prime Minister says he was brief this morning

MH370 confirmed as the plane seen by Primary Radar

8:11am Malaysian Local Time last sat communication

[fa2fi]

I don't see why there's so little concerning the pilot(s) having done this. After all they're trained and have access to the FD. Even if a would be hijacker was trained, then they'd still need access to the flight deck. Is there evidence we're not hearing about which the investigators are more convinced it was a passenger who did this and not the crew?

[p.j.m]

So after 7 days of telling us there was no doubt the aircraft crashed at a little after 1am in the Gulf of Thailand, and no other option, Malaysia are now they admitting "credible evidence" days ago about the aircraft being tracked over the Straits of Malaca, now they admitting raw SATCOM data tracked the aircraft over the Straits of Malacca and to either Kazakstan or Southern Indian Ocean (i.e. off Australia)!

So seems they HAVE been lying the whole time, and other reports are in fact true!

[mabuhay_2000]

This is a hell of a press conference.

The last CONFIRMED contact with satellite was at 8.11am local. That is 7.5 hours after take off, which would be at the extreme of suggested range, based on fuel suggested fuel load.

[me myself and fly]

Malaysian PM - Based on new data MH370 could be in the northern corridor (Thailand - Kazakhstan) or southern corridor (Indonesia southwards)

"PM: Nothern corridor between Kazachstan & Turkmenistan to northern Thailand OR Malaysia to Southern Indian Ocean"

[threemiles]

last ping from mh370 to satellite at 8.11 am Malaysia time
that is 6 hrs 50 after last radar blip or 7 hrs 30 after takeoff

[HighAndFlighty]

@Helen_D


If the theory is that the aircraft crashed into the sea, deliberately or otherwise, wouldn't the "impact" have been picked up by the various sonar/SOSUS/seismic recorders?


That is exactly what the Chinese, in there traditionally oblique way, are suggesting.

[nitpicker330]

Holy smokes.......if I was a relative of one of the pax/crew on the Aircraft I would hold out a lot of hope they are sitting somewhere waiting to be found......

[flash8]

Some posters need to take a step back. There is absolutely a 0% (zero) chance this a/c entered Russian airspace.

[PieChaser]

The way this is going, someone's going to be speculating on a landing, refueling and onward flight!

[sleemanj]

So Kazastan???

That is at the extreme of one of the areas. And the other area seems a lot more likely.

Given the new last known time is at the extent of endurance, it's probably in the drink, and the Indian ocean is a deep drink.

[Fatfish]

Now, perhaps they'll have a search in the pilot's house and computers.
Better late than never

[jugofpropwash]

The last CONFIRMED contact with satellite was at 8.11am local. That is 7.5 hours after take off, which would be at the extreme of suggested range, based on fuel suggested fuel load.

Anywhere that they might have made a quick stop, had a fuel truck waiting (or even siphoned from another plane) and taken off again?

Or have we ever gotten an accurate accounting of just how much fuel was on board when they initially took off?

This whole thing seems to be planned too well to cut it that close on fuel. That would be taking a big chance with unfavorable winds, etc.

[CodyBlade]

Egypt Air FO was under investigation for incident with hotel chambermaid?
MI185 ex-airforce capt lost his TR ticket due to SB switch off habit?


Was the Capt or FO under any Co. disciplinary action?

Horrible questions, but have to cover every angle.

[p.j.m]

2/ how much fuel did it depart with


This was answered on day 1. It had enough to get to Beijing and an extra hour.

so 7 hours (plus or minus a bit).

The SATCOM indicates 7.5 hours of flight.

[Airbubba]

The Malaysian PM just finished a press conference, took no questions. Some quick take aways from scribbled notes, this is what I thought I heard:

Said human intervention was likely but still declined to say it was hijacking. One continuing focus of the investigation is the pax and crew given the latest developments.

Said there was a new northern search corridor toward Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Northern Thailand, and a southern search corridor toward Indonesia and the South Indian Ocean.

The military primary radar correlates with the satellite provider information, the track of the unknown aircraft flying back over peninsular Malaysia was indeed MH 370. ACARS was switched off before the transponder as the aircraft first left the Malaysian coast outbound.

Last satellite transmission received from MH 370 was at 8:11 am (!). Wow, this is new.

[GunpowderPlod]

Breaking: Interpol Looking at 35 Year-Old Uighur Passenger on MH370 ? Trained in Flight Simulation | The Gateway Pundit (http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/interpol-looking-at-35-year-old-uighur-passenger-on-mh370/)

[steelbranch]

If the last satellite ping was 8:11am local, then do they have position information with that also? I mean, last known position from a satellite fix?

Hard to believe it could land some place else, refuel and take off again without anyone noticing.

I tend to agree with a previous poster who commented that she went to the limit of her fuel and is now in the drink somewhere.

[me myself and fly]

‏@beaubaldwin
MH370 is thought to have gone in one of these two directions.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Biv6pD9CAAA0wwW.jpg

[bsg]

Main things from the press conference (March 15 - 16:30 ADST):

ACARS turned off before transponder turned off. "Turned off" was the exact words used.

"Satellite" data has been used to confirm that the primary radar returns of what they *thought* was MH370 was indeed MH370, and track went as previously reported - over the Malacca(?) Straight.

No mention of altitude changes.

"Satellite" data (after other comms lost) *cannot* precisely locate the aircraft, but its was in one of two "corridors".

Last comms to satellite was 08:11(?? - many hours after initial course change).

Investigations now re-focusing on crew and PAX (that order). Still looking into everything and anything.

SAR canceled in South China sea. SAR being re-tasked to likely areas.


There was a lot of "international co-operation" talk etc etc. NTSB, FAA + man + goat have access to the data and are all trying to contribute.

One thing about the speech - it was very exact and precise. I watched the ABC24(AU) live stream - they showed the english speech (not sure if there was a Malay version). That speech had been vetted by very technical people. No wiggle room for interpretation.

[drop24]

So the aircraft flew in one of these two directions.

There are also reports of it heading south.

[GlueBall]

Some posters need to take a step back. There is absolutely a 0% (zero) chance this a/c entered Russian airspace.

Did you forget about the Cessna-172 which was flown unchallenged across former Soviet Air Defense Identification Zone from Helsinki to Moscow, and successfully landed in Red Square? :rolleyes:

[RifRaf3]

Speculators on the a/c landing and/or refuelling somewhere need to be aware that US and other satellites can read the writing on a B777's wing and they will have been checking at remote strips all week. The unknown is how long it takes to bring the sats to bear and whether there were sufficient gaps in that process. And, yes, they can identify a B777 using I/R at night.

[p.j.m]

This is a lot larger than an aviation issue. There is at times a need for operational security. Frustrating at times, but necessary. .

If I was one of the relatives of those onboard, I'd want to know straight away where the aircraft was, likewise the 12 or 14 countries that wasted millions of dollars because Malaysia wouldn't communicate what was happening is criminal.

Everyone knows time is critical, if authorities/search parties had been looking in the correct place from day 1 these terrorists may well be in custody, and the passengers safely back at home long ago!

[mabuhay_2000]

If this a/c has been stolen, then certain things must be factored in.

First, whoever flew it away must have been working in concert with a ground team at the place they were heading for.

Therefore, they must have had some way of contacting that ground team to let them know they were a 'go' and that they were en route with the a/c.

How? SATCOMs, logically.

[Hansol]

Afghanistan or Pakistan , surely too much military hardware for it to approach there.

[slats11]

There will be many layers to the way the authorities have played this. They may have leaked some details re satire tracking because they know this aircraft has crashed and it poses no risk. Or because they fear it has landed and wish to deter any further flights of this aircraft. Or simply to discourage future such events.

But there will have been a reason why it was leaked.

[rcsa]

I'd be very cautious of giving too much credibility to the "stan" theoretical route. I guess that the Malaysians have chucked that in to counter Chinese criticism of the search so far. Any route from Gulf of Thailand to the stans would take the a/c through Chinese airspace or at least radar cover.

Also - a few home truths about the stans from someone who has travelled and worked in all of them over the years.

Pretty much all are ruled by anti-Islamist (though obviously Muslim) dictatorships or autarchies, who are mostly desperate to bring their countries into the international community at some level.
Geo-strategically they are beholden to and dependent on Russia and China.
Defensively they all use Soviet-era kit, and have large defence forces and good radar cover. It is unlikely they would allow penetration of airspace by an unidentified aircraft.

The only significant US-related target in the Stans is Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan, which is scheduled to close in July 2014.

I assess it as extremely unlikely that a 777 could be brought into the Stans without being identified and probably intercepted; and impossible (not a word I use lightly) that any state actor in the region would encourage or tolerate such an act.

Also, before we get too excited about Uighur seperatists in Xinjiang, the Chinese have the place under almost complete control. If they allowed (or failed to notice) a hijacked airliner to land within Chinese sovereign territory, the repercussions internally would be inconceivable.

The only possibility with the so-called "Northern route" that I can see is that the aircraft was intercepted and destroyed or forced down in NW China by Chinese air defence. There are huge areas (look at the Takla Makan desert on GE) where this could be effected without attracting too much notice.

[alanda]

Quote: Earlier in the week the Uighurs claimed responsibility, but it was dismissed as very unlikely. Now one has to wonder...

There was one Uighur among the pax.

[Neogen]

OK if it took the path towards Central Asia, didnt' Indian Radars detect this "Unidentified object" ? any statements from Indians?


What if Indian radars detected the same, scrambled the jet and took it out. They have capability and hardware to do that and their airforce is quite edgy at this moment.

Obviously, they will maintain a stony silence given Chinese nationals on plane.

Whatever, the key question is MOTIVE? Who and why will someone do this act.

[FIRESYSOK]

Now, assuming that ACARS remained switched off, what was the nature of the signals the satellite picked up until 08.11hrs local?


The satcom was active and linking to INMARSAT until 8:11am. ACARS uses the satcom to send messages (automated or manual) to the company, Rolls Royce, or Boeing- depending.

Both the ATC transponder and the ACARS *link* to the satcom were manually interrupted at different times. The ACARS would have attempted to send a message (perhaps an automated position report) to the company or Boeing, but someone disabled its ability to do so.

The only way to do that would be to pull the ACARS c/b or disable the SAT link via a sub-menu through an FMS CDU.

[slats11]

So would I PJM. That's why relatives of those involved don't get to make such decisions.

At times the needs of many take priority over the needs of a few.

Don't think any nation will complain about SAR. It would have been valuable training. And no one is immune from this sort if threat = everyone will "cooperate".

[Mahatma Kote]

Given the possibility of a flight to the North towards Khazakstan, I note there are 86 functional airports in Kyrgyzstan and considerably more abandoned ones.

Kyrgyzstan borders Xinjiang in China. An alternative would be in Tajikistan which also borders Xinjiang.

Flights to either State can be made without crossing Chinese airspace, especially if the inwards vector is from around the Andaman Islands.

[hans66]

Outside of China, significant diasporic communities of Uyghurs exist in the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan.

Also, the 2 suggested flight paths are probably due to multi-lateration issues with the sat data. This is rougly equivalent to bearing ambiguity with sonar or the issues with correctly locating earthquake locations with data from multiple sensors.

[nitpicker330]

I'm sure ALL military satellites will be or have already checked EVERY Airport in that area for a 777.

[somepitch]

Just keep thinking 7.5 hours flight and you'll know where it is.

Why Malaysia has said SATCOM places it in 2 places at opposite ends of the earth is a mystery. There will only be 1 location pinpointed by SATCOM.

Not necessarily.. The messages may not be transmitting location data; they may be triangulating between two satellites, which would give a distance one way or the other from a given datum.

[FIRESYSOK]

Why Malaysia has said SATCOM places it in 2 places at opposite ends of the earth is a mystery. There will only be 1 location pinpointed by SATCOM.

That's not the case. It seems that the aircraft did not send position reports as previously thought. INMARSAT and whomever (US gov't probably) were able to distinguish which satellite(s) were handshaking with the aircraft, but only to a degree that established an "arc". That arc goes North, toward the 'stans, or South, deeper into the Indian Ocean.

[FIRESYSOK]

Yes, but I would think that the 'pirate' would want to be able to communicate with a ground team somewhere

INMARSAT and the United States, et al would have intercepted that immediately, no doubt.

[p.j.m]

The messages may not be transmitting location data;

they are, and its so telling that "leaks" have told us what is actually happening days before Malaysia deemed anyone else needed to know.

[somepitch]

they are, and its so telling that "leaks" have told us what is actually happening days before Malaysia deemed anyone else needed to know.

You have a source saying the Inmarsat handshakes actually contain coordinates? Or are you just inferring that? There are more ways than transmitting actual coordinates to get position data from transmissions..

[p.j.m]

INMARSAT and the United States, et al would have intercepted that immediately, no doubt.

Inmarsat only relay the signal, it's be highly unlikely they have equipment to decode anything coming off their transponders, let alone aircraft communications.

[flightdecksoftware]

If you go out from the idea this was a hijack and they tried to avoid being detected by radar, this must have been a pro with a lot of experience flying in the region. An amateur will not know how to fly waypoints to be undetected by radar. As a flight sim hobbyist I would know how to manipulate the autopilot and FMS to fly somewhere else, but I wouldn't know when exactly there will be a gap in radar coverage (certainly not sitting in the back), or where to fly to avoid radar detection. So you have two options:

1) one of the pilots did it
2) one of the PAX was a pilot and took over the plane

In both cases I think it must be more of a suicide mission than something else.

[StormyKnight]

Ok, we need to dissect what the Malaysian PM has just said.

He said that ACARS was SWITCHED OFF just after the a/c left the east coast of Malaysia. He said nothing about it ever being SWITCHED ON again subsequently.

He then said that satellites picked up signals from the a/c until 08.11hrs local.

Now, assuming that ACARS remained switched off, what was the nature of the signals the satellite picked up until 08.11hrs local?

Presumably, the signals must have been some sort of comms between the a/c and some other party. I'm guessing that whoever pulled this off would have been smart enough to encrypt any comms from the a/c to a third party.

So now the question would be... Can the various agencies crack the encrypted comms? My guess is yes, but it might take a while. And a lot of things can happen in that period.

It seems more likely that this a/c has been set down somewhere, not just kamikazes into the Indian Ocean. So, if the 'pirate' that took it thinks that somebody is onto them what will they do with the a/c and any pax/crew that may still be alive?

ACARS being turned off, means that data would no longer be sent, however the onboard satellite transmitter continued to get a baseline connection to the satellite just incase it needs to transmit the same as a mobile phone searches for cells so its ready to go when you needs to make a call. Like a mobile phone, ACARS is a two way communication....it can receive data as well like weather reports... (I think the receiving of data requires firstly a request for data from the planes ACARS system especially with regards to weather reports) - Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_Communications_Addressing_and_Reporting_System)

[sky9]

It would appear that the time has come for the FAA or NTSB to take over the investigation of this incident as the Country of the aircraft manufacturer Boeing until the aircraft is found.

If the ACARS pinging stopped at 0811 local time (00.11 UTC.) it would be interesting to check the mobile phone records of all the passengers as some will inevitably have left them turned on. If that is the case it should be possible to track those phones when they ping to establish contact with a ground base station if the aircraft flew over land or by intel. satellites.

The next question is did any flight deck crews flying the suspect routes pick up an aircraft without their transponder turned on? Routing scanning of the radar for weather frequently brings up aircraft returns.

[Methersgate]

INMARSAT uses geostationary satellites.

[Scuffers]

is it just me or is it a pretty damning indictment of the worlds military's that a plane that size can fly for 7.5 hours and not be noticed?

what happened to air defence?

[FIRESYSOK]

Inmarsat only relay the signal, it's be highly unlikely they have equipment to decode anything coming off their transponders, let alone aircraft communications.

They know exactly what transmissions came from that aircraft. They aren't amateur satellite operators.

[StormyKnight]

Inmarsat only relay the signal, it's be highly unlikely they have equipment to decode anything coming off their transponders, let alone aircraft communications.

ACARS location information is transmitted in clear text, i.e. its not encrypted & can be received at home by anyone with a receiver & decoder (software based)

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=acars+software&oq=ACARS+softe%3Dware&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l5.7618j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8

[smiling monkey]

You need a performance course mate.

I think you're the one who needs a performance course mate. :rolleyes:

This is a quote from someone who does fly the 777 from the Aviation Herald (http://www.avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0) website.

Altitude of 45,000 ft
By S Eldin on Saturday, Mar 15th 2014 04:46Z

I have serious doubts about the claim of the aircraft climbing up to 45,000 ft.

Being familiar with the type, at the 230-240 tons that the aircraft weighed one hour into flight the performance limited altitude would have been between 38,000 and 39,000 ft, increasing about 10,000 ft for every 10 tons of fuel burned.

Normal takeoff fuel would have been in the range of 44-47 tons.

To climb significantly above these altitudes is not possible because the engines would not be able to develop the required thrust and the wing would not have been able to generate the required lift, both of which reduce with increased altitude.

To be able to climb to 45,000 ft (which is 2,000 ft above the certified ceiling of this 777) the weight would have to be reduced to approx. 165 tons; in other words the weight of the aircraft, payload and virtually no fuel .

[StormyKnight]

Air defence Primary radar range is 200NM (Nautical Miles)....that is not very far from land base radar station compared to the size of the seas in that area.

[p.j.m]

ACARS location information is transmitted in clear text, i.e. its not encrypted & can be received at home by anyone with a receiver & decoder (software based)

ACARS on HF or VHF may be, but even though you can receive it, can you decode all the "non text" packets to determine what the engines are doing? I don't think so.

You've got zero chance of intercepting a satellite uplink transmission.

[mabuhay_2000]

Why is everybody assuming the comms was from ACARS?

I presume, that if it is switched off, it is off, i.e. no polling or handshaking with a ground station or satellite?

I also presume that whoever was flying the a/c would need to communicate with a ground team somewhere where they were heading. That would need SATCOMs, surely?

Is it beyond possibility that the signals picked up by the satellite(s) were voice comms between the 'pirate' and a ground team?

I can't see the 'pirate' just swanning off in the plane without a support team somewhere to help with getting the a/c on the ground. That team would have no way of knowing if the op was a 'go' unless the 'pirate' could communicate with them, would they?

[p.j.m]

Is there a log of who made what call or text to whom when? Yes.

So you now agree Inmarsat have no idea what the payload they carry holds, they only act as a relay service for their customers (as I originally said).

[davionics]

Interpretation of the SATCOM signals is key. What radios were the signals received on, which beams, was there a pattern visible in signal strength that can be attributed to potential terrestrial weather attenuation or triangulated to a track?

Rule out where the aircraft could not possibly be.

[TelcoAg]

Hell of a thread you guys have going. Don't want to interrupt, but thought you might like a general understanding of the sat location process.

When the satcom transmitter checks in with the satellite, the satellites keep a registration of what the received signal level was. It's obvious that this is all they are going off of now.

When you've got an object moving in the third dimension it will significantly expand the range that you have to consider for the transmitter to be in. What they are doing here is building an area within a received signal level (RSL) threshold where both satellite A and satellite B would be receiving a range of signal levels. For instance, you limit it to an area where sat A receives between -85 to -90db and Sat B receives between -40 to -45 DB. There are lots of other considerations such as interference levels and noise to be considered.

Once you have that area mapped, you have to mirror it across the line of latitude shared by the two satellites in geo. This is because you only have two satellites, and points where similar signal strengths intersect would happen in both places. It's kind of like picking the two spots where the circumference of two circles in a Venn diagram would cross.

Great stuff on this thread.

[HighAndFlighty]

A few posters have suggested that if, indeed the aircraft was hijacked/stolen, the hijackers/thieves would likely want to communicate with a ground crew somewhere, and for this they would need the aircraft's SATCOM capability.

I beg to differ. A simple satellite phone would do nicely. They are small enough to easily be taken on as hand luggage.

Coincidentally, a satellite phone call could well be handled through Immarsat.

Immarsat haven't said precisely what data they handled. Read into it what you will.

[p.j.m]

When the satcom transmitter checks in with the satellite, the satellites keep a registration of what the received signal level was. It's obvious that this is all they are going off of now.

why is that obvious?

Its obvious to me that the aircraft is "pinging home" sending packets of data back to a control centre, where they get distributed to various people depending on what they are and who subscribe to them.

MAS do not subscribe, so they don't get them.

[TelcoAg]

Thanks for the insight! So would it likely be comparing the levels between the IOR and POR satellites here?

Exactly right. My initial guess in this case is that those exact satellites were the ones being pinged. That's based on the bandwidth needed and general age of the tech. This was a quick drawing a put together when explaining it to someone earlier, hopefully it makes sense:

http://i.imgur.com/9ZWNnEk.png

[mabuhay_2000]

I kind of suspected that they can't triangulate, so they have only been able to narrow it down to two corridors.

[TelcoAg]

why is that obvious?

Based on the size of the area given. and the mirroring of the areas, it's obvious to me that's what they are doing. Sorry for the confusion.

I don't think the transmitted data is carrying anything meaningful in terms of the location, or they'd be going off of that.

What I've seen so far indicates RSL measurements from 2 receiving antennas.

[mabuhay_2000]

That is not at all obvious, especially as the Malaysian PM specifically said that ACARS had been SWITCHED OFF.

So what packets of data are you referring to?

[ExSp33db1rd]

I agree with LongTimeInCX, the logistics of having to look after 239 pax and crew on some bush airstrip, with or without the heightened interest of the whole World watching, is just inconceivable. A friend has suggested that North Korea could, and might have, coped with such a problem, and certainly the aircraft had the fuel to reach there, assuming that all ATC units en route ignored a silent target and also that North Korea was expecting it - else they would have shot it down as it crossed the border - but there seems to be incontravertible evidence that it went the other way.

I think it is now undoubtedly at the bottom of the Deep Blue Sea - but where?

Location of the FDR will confirm how it got there, but only the CVR ( voice recorder ) will determine why, and if that is never found we might just as well consign the event to history right now and get on with Life.

[Communicator]

It is, of course, all too easy to persuade oneself that one might have thought of X at the time: "hindsight is 20/20".

However, even bearing this principle in mind, it is breathtaking that the Malaysians failed to look carefully at their own primary radar recordings (civilian and military) around the place and time of loss of contact.

Similarly, as discussed at some length here earlier, civilian and military radar systems should have worked to make sense of each and every aircraft overflying peninsular Malaysia, including aircraft flying between established waypoints.

Either these basic steps were neglected over several days, or Malaysia's establishment balked at confronting the likely religious motivation behind a hijacking.