Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[LegallyBlonde]

Malaysia Airlines missing plane could be as far south as the Cocos Islands, Heard Island | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/world/malaysia-airlines-missing-plane-could-be-as-far-south-as-the-cocos-islands-heard-island/story-fndir2ev-1226859228851)

ON Heard Island, the closest landfall to the Australian search zone for the missing Malaysian Airlines 777, all is quiet.
As usual.
No one lives there. There’s not a building on the place, let alone a runway.
It is home to Australia’s only active volcanoes and four species of penguin. It’s one of the most inhospitable and pristine environments in the world.
Likewise on the Cocos Islands, also way out west in the Indian Ocean and another of our farthest-flung outposts, there is no sign of any search activity.
As Australia takes charge of the southern sector search for the missing jet, they are seeking the possible location of a satellite “ping” that came from the airliner some seven hours after it went missing off civilian radar.
If the jet took the southerly route — rather than the other possibility, of flying northwest towards Kazakhstan — it likely crossed somewhere over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, 2770 kilometres northwest of Perth, before heading on towards Heard Island.
A law officer on Cocos confirmed this. “Mate, I can’t say anything but I can just say there’s no extra activity on Cocos Islands. There’s nothing unusual going on here.”
The Australian search area is located 3000km southwest of Perth, covering 600,000km of empty, freezing ocean.
It is being conducted by three (and soon four) RAAF P-3 Orion Aircraft, a New Zealand Orion and a deep-sea-probing, state-of-the-art, submarine-searching US P-8 Poseidon.
The tiny Heard Island and McDonald Island grouping are approximately 1000km further southwest of the search zone.
Located only 1500km north of Antarctica, volcanoes rise sharply from the sea. It is considered a hostile, icy place at the best of times.

[Pontius Navigator]

Another thing that it hard to get for me. They see an unidentified plane in the area and they dont scrumble a fighterjet to check it out?! Im referring here to the Malaysians, of course. Wouldnt this be the normal reaction to a plane that fails to be identified through normal sops.

Discussed many pages back and undoubtedly falls into the unnecessary secrets area. Whether they saw the rogue flight path in real time or from tape analysis would reveal their level of alertness.

Whether they have interceptors at high alert 24/7 or a lower state, say 30min, or not at night, or not at weekends etc etc.

The width of Malaysian air space FIR to FIR is fairly narrow so even in the best circumstances decision time, scramble time, and time to intercept means a low chance of intercept which could also increase the do we/don't we decision process time.

The fact is they didn't scramble and they didn't seem to react in real time; the reasons why are speculative and not really germane to the analysis and search.

PS

At a very rough estimate the width available to intercept and track is just 400 miles. At 450kts that is around 50 minutes. Assuming a 15 minute decision time by the scramble authority, 15 minutes (max) for the scramble, and 5 minutes to height, the interceptor is already set up for a tail chase.

Geography often dictates defence posture. As for week end and over night working, remind me what the US posture was on 6 Dec 1941.

[Pininstauld]

No one ever thought, before 447, that a professional crew flying a modern jet owned by a mainline natonal carrier could be capable of doing what they did. Yet only a few years later and here we are again with an even more bizarre mystery to unravel. It is a novel situation. That is why the solution to this riddle will most likely be found "outside the box". Until, and unless, there is a debris field to examine, nothing can be ruled out. But, with sufficient evidence already available to show intentional interference shouldn't operational and maintenance directives be out already governing accessibility of the Transponder switching panel and transponder CB from the flight deck?

[mach411]

The graphic below is using an equidistant projection, and has a 40° and 50° satellite elevation arc drawn on it. The red tracks represent the two speeds used by the NTSB and an assumption is made that about 200+NM west of Aceh, North Sumatra, the heading was set to 180°M.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/2pytbw6.jpg

Thanks for that mm43, gives an idea of where the intermediate satellite pings probably fell.

By the way, I believe the correct projection to use would be an azimuthal equidistant projection, centered on the Inmarsat IOR satellite. (Azimuthal equidistant projection - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azimuthal_equidistant_projection))

[Andy_S]

Interesting and incisive thoughts about Boeing, and following the money.

If it’s Wednesday, it must be Boeing conspiracy day on the MH370 thread……..

Please bear in mind that it might actually be in Boeing’s interest for this issue to be resolved in order to demonstrate that it wasn’t a mechanical or systems issue with the 777 that caused MH370 to disappear.

As for the share price, well done. You’ve put two and two together and got five…… The stock markets are driven by sentiment and can be susceptible to events, so there’s absolutely nothing surprising about a fall in the Boeing share price. There’s an old stock market adage “Sell on the rumour, buy on the news”; you’re just seeing this process in action. You can bet your bottom dollar that some of the people who sold their shares in Boeing will be buying them back at a lower price.

To suggest, as someone did a few pages ago, that MH370 could potentially cause Boeing to collapse is simply hysterical.

[Lorimer]

I'm with you on this one, Jazzbag, (post 6033)

Aim: To Hijack a 777
Method:
To make the aircraft vanish thereby presume crashed into the sea... the only thing they overlooked was that the engines kept talking to the satellite even though the ACARS was disabled.
-one or both pilots? or trained pax assisted by maybe one pax (the engineer?) depressurise the aircraft just 15 mins before the change over point.They could be wearing Oxygen masks which explains the garbled transmission with background noise.. Maintain altitude to starve the oxygen from the pax systems which last 15 mins ..(the pilots would last 30 mins or more) Intent is to disable all passengers who would notice the change in course and may try to storm the cockpit.
-the attendants with the mobile oxygen may have realised something wrong and try to break down the cockpit door.. so the pilot/s decide to climb to 45000 to disable these brave guys. When this works successfully the aircraft is descended to level 295 below RVSM and in between semi circular FLs.
-Now the plane is flown to a remote airfield maybe in South Central Asia.

What you've not mentioned is that having depressurised the aircraft for 20 minutes or so (air-conditioning packs off, outflow valve open), the pilot(s) or whoever was in the flight deck then closes the outflow valve and turns the packs back on. The OAT was likely -50ºC so the aircraft would be getting mighty cold. You would need to get back to a warm, oxygen-rich environment as quickly as possible. It could be that some mobile phones were left on (there always will be and lack of O2 won't affect them), but no one to make any calls at any stage thereafter.

Now that it's just "you' on board, the carefully thought-out plan can commence. And for all those 1000s of people reading this blog who don't imagine there was a plan, the precedent is 9/11. The complete creativity of that plan caught the whole world by surprise. I admit it does need a brave step of imagination but so it did back in 2001. I believe that General McInery's thoughts concerning a safe landing in Pakistan are to be taken seriously. He did ask the interviewer not to push him on some of his sources which had obviously been agreed prior to the interview (Lt. Gen. McInerney: Flight 370 Could Have Landed in Pakistan | Fox News Insider (http://foxnewsinsider.com/2014/03/18/lt-gen-mcinerney-flight-370-could-have-landed-pakistan)).

[EngineeringPilot]

What would you do as pilot of a 777 (or comparable aircraft) if faced with a 'significant' electrical fire in the exact position south of Vietnam where MH370 deviated from course?


I am not a pilot yet but I am aware that in case of any in-flight emergency, the pilot rules are to aviate, navigate and then communicate.
This explains a lot about an electrical fire or such event, since in such cases, the first priority of a pilot would be to land the aircraft. Which thus explains the west turn towards Langkawi Airport, closest airport at the time, and also easiest to navigate to on auto-pilot since smooth terrain on that route from where they were (as compared to going back to KLCC).
Second priority would be to find the source of the fire, i.e. assess the problem. In case of electrical fire, they would switch off electrical "busses", and turning them back on one by one to isolate where the problem comes from. Thus explaining lost of ACARS and all comms.
Climbing to from FL350 to FL450 would explain going to highest flyable altitude to minimize oxygen in an attempt to switch off fire. However, very difficult not to stall at this altitude, which explains sudden drop to FL250, a/c may have stalled and pilots struggled to regain control which happened at FL250. Heading continued on auto-pilot to Langkawi airport.
Lastly would be to communicate, but I guess things happened quickly, and since "busses" were off, that did not happen as something probably incapacitated the pilots (smoke for example), and they fell unconscious. Thus flight continued on auto heading until fire destroyed control electricals, or they ran out of fuel, thus crashed.

[suninmyeyes]

I am a 777 pilot and have waded painfully through all these pages.

Just a few points:

To be pedantic the 777 transponder cannot be turned off in flight from the flight deck. ie depowered with digits blank. There is no off switch, however there is a standy position which will stop it radiating. You would have to pull the circuit breaker to totally depower it. In flight on the 777 you never go to standby if you are given a change of squawk.

The suggestion of taking off with main tank fuel pumps off is not a valid possibility. The electronic checklist would not tick itself off, and there are clues on the eicas screen. If you did take off like that and the engines failed in cruise you would get low pressure fuel warnings first and your radios would still be working normally.

As to who made the last radio call. If the Captain is handling pilot the copilot would normally make the radio calls. However for various reasons i.e. the copilot out of the flight deck, copilot on the intercom to cabin crew , the Captain may have made the call. So role is not definitive proof.

In the event of a fire you do not climb to snuff out flames.

The 777 does not have a mach trimmer.

Can a 777 get to FL450? In true mythbuster spirit we put this to the test in a 777-2 simulator. A 777 with a full load of passengers has a zero fuel weight of between 170 and 180 tonnes, say 175 tonnes. 8 hours of fuel is approximately 52 tonnes. So a takeoff weight of approx 227 tonnes minus a bit of taxi fuel. At that weight the FMS says Max Alt FL409. The plane will climb easily to FL410.

Now it gets interesting. At FL410 There is a very small gap on the airspeed tape between the VMO and the yellow which is minimum manoeuvring speed. If you disconnect the autothrottle and firewall the thrust levers, then wait until the speed is about to trigger the VMO warning and then disconnect the autopilot and raise the nose you can do a zoom climb. Although into the yellow pretty quickly there is still a long way before you get to the red digits on the airspeed which is the point at which the stick shaker activates.. The elevator gets incredibly heavy as it is made artificially heavier as the Boeing 777 really doesn't want you to do this. With P2 pulling with all his might he still could not raise the nose to anywhere near 10 degrees. Putting the flight controls into direct mode made it easier. We got it to FL 443 at which point the stick shaker activated and P2 gratefully reduced the back pressure. This sim had GE engines. RR are a bit more powerful and if they had used an hour more fuel than our simulation I think it would have been feasible. Interestingly at FL440 the cabin alt was still at 8000 feet as per normal, so it must have used a higher diff than normal but still had not reached the max diff where the relief valve opens.

As regards the possibilities:

I believe the event probably started with the flight deck door opening and either a pilot exiting or someone else entering. I suspect someone with knowledge then deliberately disabled transponder, acars and satcom.

As for the gradual depressurisation theory. I cannot buy that because the normal cabin alt is 8000, if it gently depressurised it might not be noticed but at 10,000 feet cabin alt there is a very loud horn and red "cabin Alt" warning. No pilot should be unconscious by this point, the passenger masks don't even drop until a cabin altitude of 14000 feet so they would have seen the warning at 10,000 feet and taken action.

The rapid depressurisation theory and the pilots unconscious due to either failing to put masks on or failure of the oxygen system. This might have been a possibility except the transponder stopped radiating. In an emergency descent you do not touch the knob of the transponder switch. I have never put a 777 transponder to sby in flight and it would be totally alien. The transponder selector knob is not part of the emergency descent checklist.

A massive electrical failure or smoke in the flight deck? Possible but extremely unlikely for it to all happen at once with no chance to get even a radio call out. Also flying for 5 more hours. Would it not be better to head for land then circle and get attention?

A great mystery.
　

[FlyingOfficerKite]

It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma ...

I can't believe the suicide theory;

Don't think it crashed due to mechanical failure;

That really only leaves 'interference' with the aircraft and crew.

Worst case would be ransom demand, with hostages dispersed - and no way of extracting them.

The body language of the Malyasians suggests more knowledge than answers.

[G-ARVH]

Oxy tank failure? Breach of the pressure hull following failure of the regulator apparatus on the Oxy tank? Electrical fire, smoke, fought by increasing altitude to FL45, which put out the fire, but if the pressure hull was breached, proved terminal to all carbon-based life-forms on board?

Agreed, well said. Read what RCSA, has written he knows what he is talking about.

I must say i finally do not believe all the fancy rumours.

Ii think they had somekind of an initially undetected smoldering fire in the electronic bay which disabled one system after another - starting with acars. after system failures began they decided to turn back to malaysia , using the heading mode .

Just in the turn the fire melted through the structure resulting in a rapid decompression. the crew oxygen bottles, stored in the electronic bay, failed and the pilots were out of order. the decompression by itself also put off this fire.

The autopilot continued to work and stucked in the turn on a heading towards indian ocean where the plane continued until fuel exhaustion and then crashed.



Here is another sensible post from Aerobat 77, smouldering fire in the Electrical Bay situated under the cockpit floor.


Boeing, Rolls Royce, Airbus and the London Insurance Underwriter’s along with every airline maintenance and overhaul organisation around the world including 800,000 aircraft engineers / mechanics and 500,000 commercial pilots, will be thinking along these lines. None of the aforementioned will be thinking of the monstrously irresponsible and ridiculous conspiracy theories that have spread throughout this thread.

[500N]

Tango

"It did occur to me that while there are clear geographical and logistic reasons for Australia to take charge of the Southern search area, there is also the possibility that the US may be more willing to reveal any information they may have to the Australians than the Malaysians."

Pine Gap and other technology is jointly manned by BOTH Aus and the US and I doubt any hold ups would be occurring of relevant info between the US and Aus considering how close the two countries are, we share virtually everything else !

[bono]

John Young gave on camera briefing without any reporters. Key Points:
1. Search area has shifted a little closer to Perth due to refinements based on data analysis
2. Only one aircraft participated in search on 18th March, but 4 are participating on March 19th and maybe 5 on March 20th.
3. Search conditions were good on 18th March as search crew could see marine life but did not locate anything of relevance to search.
4. A few ships will pass through search area as well.

Pictures/video at Media site:
http://goo.gl/sltQz9


http://i59.tinypic.com/35n6b6e.jpg

[catch21]

Is it possible for the 777 in question to fly to full endurance, i.e. fuel exhaustion, without any manual intervention?

[Andu]

OleOle, in answer to your question re extending the range of Jindalee/JORN: I understand the aerial array involves very large tracts of land. I don't believe there's be anywhere near enough land available on Cocos to have an aerial farm.

If I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will correct me.

[Bobman84]

Not sure why they think finding the black box will necessarily prove anything, as if it kept flying normally for a few hours, how exactly would that help the investigation and answer the questions of the press?

[bono]

http://i59.tinypic.com/15xmnv6.jpg

[Neogen]

Wow... They didnt confirm whether plane past through the two waypoints on west. They dont have any data to corroborate :ooh:

So anything that they have been saying regarding MH370's path so far is smoke..

[Space Jet]

I get the impression they know its crashed with no survivors.

They just said during the press conference "our focus is to find the aircrafts black box and we have the team who found the AF447 black box in KL now to see what recovery assets they have"

[caa]

Naval Communication Station Harold E. Holt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Communication_Station_Harold_E._Holt)


Get the full capability of protection here.


And here.


Pine Gap - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap)




Don't tell me they don't fully check for threats 24/7 or keep records.

[Wannabe Flyer]

Flight Sim Cache/Logs was wiped clean on Feb 3rd.

[mightyauster]

Is it possible for the 777 in question to fly to full endurance, i.e. fuel exhaustion, without any manual intervention?
Yes. The fuel system is very simple. The engines feed from the centre tank first and then from their respective wing tanks, in the normal configuration, with no action necessary from the crew.

[Gamebeater]

In this latest presser the journalist asked a simple question whether there was evidence MH370 actually passed through the waypoints after turn around. The response was to say that "we are concentrating our efforts on finding the aircraft." In other words no answer to what should be data available to the investigation and important to our understanding. Why the evasion?

[LadyL2013]

The press should be ashamed of the way they behaved at the end of that press conference.

[Wannabe Flyer]

I get the impression they know its crashed with no survivors.

Pretty sure most have discounted the shadow takeover theory with it being hidden in some remote location with all alive for some other use someday....!!!

Bigger question remains where are the remains.

[Sheep Guts]

Space Jet,

I get the impression they know its crashed with no survivors.

They just said during the press conference "our focus is to find the aircrafts black box and we have the team who found the AF447 black box in KL now to see what recovery assets they have"

Also they cleverly diverted everyone's attention from the South China Sea. Have they really stopped searching in the South China Sea? So more developments to come I think.

[OleOle]

The possible routes in the AMSA maps show that NTSB is convinced MH370 didn't head due south, i.e. south pole could not have been the final waypoint. Otherwise the routes should be parallel to the meridians.

[Alloa Akbar]

BBC News - Missing Malaysia plane: 10 theories examined (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26609687)

Several references to "Forum" speculation.. beware the Journo's :eek:

Personally, I am still struggling with the concept that in this day and age, 247 Tonnes of mixed metals travelling at 500 Kts can just vanish without a trace.. The whole thing stinks in terms of lack of a cohesive multi national SAR mission, lots of politics, agendas and reluctance to divulge info.

In terms of speculation and conspiracy theories, well who would have thought that a bunch of folks would hijack a few planes and fly into skyscrapers in the USA?? Nothing would surprise me here.

[dicks-airbus]

@APLFLIGHT: Makes sense to me. From what is known, I would bet on it being the most likely scenario.

No surprise: "and that between Rolls-Royce, Boeing and the U.S. government, officials know a lot more than has come out."

Surprise: "When the Israeli defense forces, when they increase their defense alert, they must know something,” McInerney said.

[Northern Hawk]

First off, thanks for your excellent post (#6078) @suninmyeyes. Long on facts, short on fantasy...just the way it should be.

My question to the board: the AMSA search area is now but 3% of the total 'southern arc' search area. I gather that this is due to the the focus on the route scenarios provided by the NTSB. Anyone know how these were derived? Simple 180° header south from the Bay of Bengal x fuel? Computer modelling of various sets of satellite ping arc data? Anyone know?

[dicks-airbus]

@Wannabe Flyer: Read today that Allianz has started insurance payouts.

[Wannabe Flyer]

@DA

Wow thats fast and premature, are your sure that is not the interim relief that MH provides?

Over and above this people do take out life insurance policies and any bizarre amounts or coverage usually needs some investigation.

[OleOle]

Vermisste Boeing: Allianz zahlt für den Flug MH 370 - Versicherungen - Unternehmen - Handelsblatt (http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/versicherungen/vermisste-boeing-allianz-zahlt-fuer-den-flug-mh-370/9635498.html)

- 100 milion $ to be paid
- paying for airframe as well as to families
- all payments will be made this week
- it seems to be a standard clause for airline insurances, that money is paid rapidly, independent of the cause

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

The Sky reporter should be criticised for being part of this press mob.

I think the pictures of the authorities man-handling family members back into the hotel room, where they're effectively held under house arrest, is rather more disturbing

[MartinM]

Hmm. What happens with the payment the insurance company made, if the plane and the passengers show up?

[mixture]

I think the pictures of the authorities man-handling family members back into the hotel room, where they're effectively held under house arrest, is rather more disturbing

They're not under house arrest.

I'm sure they are being well briefed, and its for their own good that they are being kept away from the savage journalists !

If I were in their position I'd probably want someone keeping the media well away from me too !

[Hornbill88]

There are only a few facts available and all else is speculation that is not proven to be right so far.

One of the "facts" that has been circulating for some time is that the a/c turned at two or more waypoints after IGARI. At the press conference just now someone asked what was the evidence for this "fact". The head of the CAA blatantly evaded the question replying that the emphasis is on searching for a/c, ie I think indicating that there is no evidence. As previously noted here, the origin of this "fact" is Reuters quoting an unnamed source.

Part of the problem is that interesting facts only emerge under questions from journalists. If the journalists don't ask the right questions, facts don't emerge.

I don't altogether blame the Malaysians for this. The more they tell, the more we will want. Perhaps we should just leave them to get on with their job.

[Skillsy]

Many eons ago, when the community couldn't understand why the crops had failed for the second year running, the river had dried up or some village immaculate conception had occurred, we needed solace, normally in the shape of a witch, burnt at the stake We don't appear to have traveled much beyond this.

The community stills appears to require a witch when events cannot be understood and we appear have a coven of four in this instance.

Initially we had the mad Malay witch which couldn't produce the evidence required. This witch grew with impatience to cover the whole of South East Asia.

Next witch on the block (well stake) was the FO. Obviously not up to the task, he was ripe for a bit of kindling. However why have a FO witch when you can have a captain and he has a flight sim.
Oh NO he hasn't,
Oh YES he has murmur the ever deepening crowd.

Finally we have an onboard engineering witch, not as potent as a captain witch which was disappointing for the amassed crowd but a way a select few can knowingly nod, probably the FO and Captain collective no doubt. ;)

Is it time we got back to thinking that the crew may have attempted to save the aircraft due to another reason or is that just not plausible or interesting?

[Carjockey]

A profound glimpse into the mentality of the Malaysian authorities...

"I would like to take this opportunity to state that the passengers, the pilots and the crew remain innocent until proven otherwise. For the sake of their families, I ask that we refrain from any unnecessary speculation that might make an already difficult time even harder,'' he added.Malaysia says no sighting of MH370 in Maldives, people on board innocent till proven otherwise (http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/se-asia/story/maldives-says-no-sighting-mh370-airspace-hishammuddin-20140319)

[TWT]

Some data had been deleted from the flight simulator found at the home of the pilotYes,cache deleted in early February.Doesn't prove or disprove anything.Maybe the hard drive was getting full.Next....

[Alchemist1]

Are you kidding?

If it weren't for a WSJ article that they DENIED (?!) for functionally semantic reasons, for an entire day, the world would probably still be searching by LKP.

They contradict data almost daily.

Newspaper leaks have generally preceded the allocation of SAR assets.

Utter gong show.

[DocRohan]

I agree with TWT...deletion of data means nothing in itself....Additionally, data is never "really" deleted...I am sure the IT people will be able to recover the deleted data anyway (unless he had a great quality multiple-overwriting program!)

[Ron Swanson]

GTC58 said The B777 has a super critical wing, as such it is not really designed to have aerodynamic inherent stability. Without pilot inputs it doesn't take very long for the aircraft to depart its altitude and flight path in manual flight.

This is not true at all. The B777 is a fly by wire aircraft, the aircraft is flow by the primary flight computers (PFC) which interpret pilot inputs to the flying controls and the current flying conditions (speed, alt, configuration) and move the control surfaces as appropriate. If there is any inherent instability of the wing design it is irrelevant.

If the the auto pilot is switched off and the pilot makes no input on the flying controls the aircraft will continue to fly on roughly the same path as it was before the A/P disconnected.

[Simplythebeast]

Journalists showed themselves in their true light today. Appalling behaviour.
Seems the Captain must have been responsible now due to his flight sim files having been deleted.......talk about a bunch of idiots!

[LX-GB1]

There is an inference in the comments made at today's press conference, but what is needed are meaningful facts, not inferences.

CNN reports:
Malaysian politician: Flight 370 pilot supported me, but was no hijacker

Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim: MH370 pilot supported me, but was no hijacker - CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-flight-anwar-pilot/)

[Steve073]

If it were a fire, and they were attempting to land at a nearby airport, would they have needed to have dumped fuel before attempting the landing?

Aborted if there were no runway lights where they were attempting.

Perhaps hoping a military response would be mobilised to guide them somewhere else....

If they did dump fuel, how did they manage to keep flying for so long?

Not enough facts to go on.

[parabellum]

Ron,
No auto pilot or auto throttle, even a small amount of turbulence will change the attitude and/or course of the aircraft surely? The last position the trim system left the aircraft in would also have an influence. A slight climb and the speed will drop off and the aircraft will eventually stall, (it may even reach FL450!).

[Gamebeater]

Given the evasions in the presser ignoring the question on actual waypoint crossing there now is exposed the lack of any evidence whatsoever that waypoints were entered for the turn to the west. All we have it the aircraft turned to the west which is consistent with an attempt to land at the nearest airport which apparently failed possibly due to incapacitation and followed by continued powered flight in a Markov Chain Random Walk. Trim deteriorates with changes in weight, wind and other variables.

[imaynotbeperfect]

The predicted flight path 'to the south' not being parallel to the lines of longitude presumably is because they're assuming a magnetic 180 degrees rather than a true south ?

[Hempy]

In this evening’s Kuala Lumpur briefing the Malaysia authorites said the co-pilot did not make MH370′s last radio call “all right good night” before the lost 777-200ER went dark and diverted from its intended flight path from the Malaysia capital to Beijing on 8 March.

So, if he didn't make the radio call before it went 'dark', the implication is surely that he made the call after it did. And if this is the case, after the initial event, surely the press conference tonight is suggesting that suspicion is on the FO??

[barrel_owl]

P.S. Apologies to BARREL. The 40 degree turn from FR24, no longer discussed much but an obvious fly in the ointment, I can't stomach bringing up right now; esp. when FR24 has some accuracy issues.
rigbyrigz,
thank you for mentioning the "fly in the oitment" and delving into this issue.

I read your last posts and all the answers you got. My question is: was there any official confirmation by the Malaysian authorities about the left-turn allegedly programmed into the FMS and reported in the last ACARS at 1:07? I am asking because I confess I could not keep track much of the news during the last 24 hours and I may have overlooked this detail.

In principle, I completely agree with the posters who answered your questions. Changing a flight plan is a matter of few keystrokes, no matter whether you have a secondary flight plan prepared or you change you original flight plan "on the fly" by adding/deleting one or more waypoints.
The key point is whether the pilot and/or the F/O did this before 1:21. Any official confirmation about this?
Thanks.

[pvmw]

Now I was wondering: If one inverts so much money into such a RADAR on the mainland, then wouldn't it be logical to take advantage of the location of Cocos (Keeling) Islands to dramatically extend the range

There are two radars (plus Jindalee, the prototype) about 900 miles apart. Each has a Tx and Rx array about 1/2 mile long separated by about 50 miles. JORN also relies on transponders along the coast to provide real time data on the ionosphere. These are typically 500+ miles from the radar arrays.

Jorn is BIG. The Cocos archipelago is only about 5 miles across.

[OleOle]

My question to the board: the AMSA search area is now but 3% of the total 'southern arc' total search area. I gather that this is due to the the focus on the route scenarios provided by the NTSB. Anyone know how these were derived? Simple 180° header south from the Bay of Bengal x fuel? Computer modelling of various sets of satellite ping arc data? Anyone know?

Very interesting question. Yesterday this was discussed to some length in this thread. Probably computer modelling is the way to go. The shrinking that happened to the search area from yesterday to today is an indication that they are doing constant simulation runs. By doing more runs and feeding in more data and assumptions they can home in a little bit more on the target.

The data would be:
- set of ping arcs
- wind vectors on assumed flight path
- atmospheric parameters(temp,pressure,humidity) and resulting engine performance

Assumptions would be:
- Fuel on board
- TAS which puts restraints on fuel flow
- Altitude which puts restraints on TAS and fuel flow
- assumptions on HDG setting or flightplan in FMC
- assumptions on throttle setting


The model can become quite complex.

[parabellum]

Interesting.

We were taught to go to standby, set the new squawk, and return to ON,

The logic was to avoid the possibility of going through an emergency squawk (unlikely) or flicking through other squawks.


Remember an Air Trafficker telling us, quite a long time ago, never go to SBY, they will lose the return and it may not come back immediately, which 'blinds' them, also, an inadvertent emergency squawk can be easily sorted by R/T within seconds.

[EngineeringPilot]

A slight climb and the speed will drop off and the aircraft will eventually stall, (it may even reach FL450!)


No the B777 will not reach FL450 through a "slight climb" manoeuvre, climbing to that altitude requires special actions and forced manoeuvres, as explained in details by a fellow 777 pilot a few pages back.

[Eclectic]

The pilot deleting records from his flight simulator will be a very temporary inconvenience.

Look up forensic data recovery.
Even physically smashing the hard drive leaves data that can be recovered.

[Mark654321]

12 Days in and still no commitment from any Transport Authority, Airline or Aircraft producer that Transponders be permanently locked in some way???

Will we learn nothing from this and 9/11 ???

[parabellum]

No the B777 will not reach FL450 through a "slight climb" manoeuvre, climbing to that altitude requires special actions and forced manoeuvres, as explained in details by a fellow 777 pilot a few pages back.


Sorry, I put an exclamation mark in but should have added a smiley, that statement in brackets was definitely tongue in cheek! :)

[Ian W]

A third conceivable reason could be that negative and positive g was introduced deliberately, to detain someone who would wanted to enter the FD.

And another reason for primary radar height finding to be inaccurate is that the size of the aircraft gave a strong radar target that fooled the height finding algorithms.

[clipstone1]

It is nothing unusual to collect the funds for the Hull Insurance from the relevant insurers. Most policies say something like "when an aircraft has disappeared and not been seen for a period of at least 48 hours" insurers will pay the agreed hull value. In doing so they will take any rights of salvage over the aircraft, thus if it were to be found in one peice it would be insurers property to dispose of how they saw fit.

Remembering the aircraft is not owned by MAS, therefore any funds will be owed to the lessor of this aircraft.

The bigger issue will be the SAR costs, as has already been said, the AF SAR costs were $40m, in this loss searching in so many places the costs could exceeed $40m, most airline insurance policies will cover SAR but with a limit of about $10m leaving the airline to foot bill.

[harrryw]

Admissions that the waypoint sent was only the original course.
Refusal to answer whether the plane actually flew to the waypoints zigzaging as previosusly reported. (Saying we have moved past that.)
Before I had some faith in them. I now sense a coverup.
Of course the no new way point activated in message messes up several pages of this topic, and the no waypoints will be a few more if true.

[China Flyer]

I was taught to do the same thing when I flew something small, pointy and fast.

However, on "modern" airliner-type transponders there is no need because one changes the squawk by pressing the Clear button, then simply pressing the four buttons corresponding to the given squawk.

I guess one could accidentally press 77 or 76 or 75, but that would be silly, given that one is sitting in a comfortable seat in shirtsleeves, not pulling "g" and fumbling with a gloved finger in a dark part of the cockpit.




edited to add: I agree with calypso (http://www.pprune.org/members/16032-calypso).

[calypso]

What would you do as pilot of a 777 (or comparable aircraft) if faced with a 'significant' electrical fire in the exact position south of Vietnam where MH370 deviated from course?

Turn towards the nearest suitable runway, run the appropriate checklist. Just as he would have practiced many times in the simulator during his career. The company simulator, not his own.

I would keep well away from undocumented home made procedures. These are complex machines and you can run into pretty severe unintended consequences if in the spirit of the moment you go off piste. Avionics fire, fumes, smoke is a well covered scenario with well defined containment actions planned by boeing engineers and test pilots with far more in depth knowledge and time than I would have if suddenly confronted with the problem.

[Hempy]

What would you do as pilot of a 777 (or comparable aircraft) if faced with a 'significant' electrical fire in the exact position south of Vietnam where MH370 deviated from course?

Turn towards the nearest suitable runway, run the appropriate checklist. Just as he would have practiced many times in the simulator during his career. The company simulator, not his own.

Said checklist including 7700 on the squawk and a MAYDAY call..

[EngineeringPilot]

Turn towards the nearest suitable runway, run the appropriate checklist. Just as he would have practiced many times in the simulator during his career. The company simulator, not his own.


Indeed. Anyone looked into Langkawi airport as the runway he might have been heading to? To me this is the theory that makes sense..
Checklist also involves cutting electrical busses, refer to 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia, where fire was the cause, and transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.
Climbing to FL450 also appears to me as an attempt to put out fire; hijackers climbing to FL450 do not make sense.

[ChrisJ800]

12 Days in and still no commitment from any Transport Authority, Airline or Aircraft producer that Transponders be permanently locked in some way???

Will we learn nothing from this and 9/11 ???

OK here we go again on this issue. A transponder is an electronic component that as such can short out, cause phantom 76 (emergency) codes or in my case a phantom echo 100 feet above me. Without an off switch I would have had to land or vacate the control zone. Any electronic component needs a CB and/or off switch.

[funfly]

All the theories about emergency returns are negated by the fact that the FO made his 'laid back' RTT response after the transponder was disabled and, now we are told, after the left turn.

[Andy_S]

Anyone looked into Langkawi airport as the runway he might have been heading to?

You. Repeatedly........

Climbing to FL450 also appears to me as an attempt to put out fire

Someone who actually flies the 777 was quite clear, earlier today, that this is not how it's done.

[formationdriver]

Absolutely. 100%.

[atlast]

The last RT call is not a proven fact. Many times call signs are confused and other aircraft reply. One of the most common phrases heard in the cockpit is,"Was that for us?"

[oldoberon]

It's by no means certain that Inmarsat have access to any stored (ephemeral) data on any but the last ping.

I know it is in here somewhere that the CEO/some senior inmarsat bod said on the 1st day they announced it they had all the pings and had handed over the data, under the circumstances I doubt they have not got a copy of that data even if the satellite has now auto deleted it.

also these two posts

page 296 post 5915 volxanicash

For what it's worth, in Sunday's press conference the DCA Director specifically said that Inmarsat had provided data for six handshakes. He also said they had times and coordinates - although he obviously didn't actually mean "coordinates".

page 248 #4952 volcanic ash

In today’s (Sunday) press conference, the DCA Director also referred to calculations of the aircraft’s minimum and maximum speeds from last point of contact as considerations in determining the arcs.


You could google search for the DCA conference

[Ian W]

We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. It’s slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.


And how does the slow burning tire explain the extra fix put into the active route of the FMC?
The EIDAS warning and the tire pressure warning would also appear on ACARS the tire pressure warning as the aircraft taxied.

I may have missed that but I don't think the extra warnings on ACARS have been reported in any of the briefings.

[uncle8]

Quote
"Interesting.
We were taught to go to standby, set the new squawk, and return to ON,
The logic was to avoid the possibility of going through an emergency squawk (unlikely) or flicking through other squawks."

The Australian AIP requires the use of standby when changing codes and explains why.

[nitpicker330]

On our A330 and 777's it never goes into STBY, stays in AUTO.

In fact in a lot of Airports if it's not working on the ground they call you up and ask you to turn it on so their ground movement radar can see you.

[aviator1970]

Now with a numerical key pad their is no need to put transponder to standby... just key in the assigned code... Easy;)

[Ian W]

Persistent reports in the media as well as posters here refer to a descent to 5000' to "avoid radar".
1) at 5000 ft you are still very visible to radar
2) with no Transponder (and no primary returns) how do they know the a/c was at 5000 ft?
3) if the aircraft was tracked doing this over "two or three countries" then what countries were they? What was the flight path?

Sorry, doesn't make sense.

Also, journalists, why aren't you asking about the pings?
The last ping was on the 40 deg arc. On what arcs were the other pings?

The Malaysians are just not being forthcoming about everything they know, they are worthy of hearty condemnation on this.

If you are behind a hill you may disappear and experienced controllers and military used to their radars will be able to say how low the aircraft would need to go to 'hide' behind the hills. Solid track suddenly disappears into radar shadow - you know you can see things to just over 5000' but less than that they disappear - assumption it was at 5000' or below. Controllers also have to know the bottom of their radar cover due to range - so a track disappearing as it flies away can give a good indication that it flew out of the bottom of the radar lobe. It is a simple task to calculate the bottom of the lobe at that range. Talk to another radar unit in another country and they had solid returns where it disappeared for you, QED
The flight path has been reported into the Malacca straights that is why the search suddenly switched there when the military confirmed their primary tracking. Thailand has also now belatedly confirmed the same track.

It does add up.

[LegallyBlonde]

Gamebeater wrote

The rate of BS per minute here is approaching the MACH Numbers.


Today's prize must go to the 'rotting mangosteen' theory:E

[harrryw]

@Ian W

And how does the slow burning tire explain the extra fix put into the active route of the FMC?

In the press conferance they stated there was no extra waypoint in the message. All there was was the original course to Beijing.

[barti01]

I stopped following this thread so closely as I used to because all the theories and speculations were killing me, but I need to ask one question now. I keep seeing posts about initial climb to FL450 here and there, and wondering how possible this is, since someone actually flying T7s mentioned few thousands posts ago that such climb would not be possible given the amount of fuel the a/c have had. forgive me in case that's already a closed topic...

[captains_log]

All the theories about emergency returns are negated by the fact that the FO made his 'laid back' RTT response after the transponder was disabled and, now we are told, after the left turn.


Can we verify this, if this is the case then that's quite significant.

[Shadoko]

Hi,
Just a very short question from (evidently!) a non pilot (sorry if stupid or recently asked):
what do the a/c if the AP is on and nobody do anything when the last WP is reached?

[Icarus2001]

The Australian AIP requires the use of standby when changing codes and explains why.
Standby is also required until entering the runway on departure and immediately after landing.

Wrong.

In the jet I fly the TCAS/transponder stops transmitting when a code is changed until last digit is set.

The transponder is turned on prior to taxi and turned off on the bay.

[metro301]

Shadoko,

Reversion to heading or track mode will occur

[DespairingTraveller]

Quote: All the theories
about emergency returns are negated by the fact that the FO made his 'laid back'
RTT response after the transponder was disabled and, now we are told,
after the left turn.

Can we verify this, if this is the case then that's quite significant.
Only if someone has a recording or transcript of the press conference - it was in the questions, not the minister's statement.

And I thought the sense of what the respondee said was the other way around from what is being implied here now. I.e. it was consistent with innocent action.

But it was a presser and I'm not positive what the exact question was either.

[oldoberon]

I don't know Hempy. I though I had read ages back that Vietnam saw them turn back to Malaysia, and they had told the Malaysians. I don't know if this means they told them in real time, or only later when everyone realised it had gone missing. Not sure anyone knows given the way so may things have been stated one day and then revised the next.

People here have said they heard HCM trying to contact them. I think also the other MH flight was asked to try to raise them.

I read they informed KL that they could not contact them and that radar indicated the plane had turned, my belief is the radar data was given just before or whilst the aircraft was transiting malaysia on it's new course.

Re trying to contact them a pilot has confirmed he heard them going bonkers trying to raise MH370 and asking another flight to do so.(think that was on 121.5

[aviator1970]

shadoko
The Track mode usually would get reset to heading mode.... so if their is a substantial difference the ac will turn and roll out... just Keeping it simple...

[aviator1970]

Sharp end (the pilots ) always easy to blame.... what a pity... esp since they aren't around to clarify.. blunt end (everything else) as always going scot free, namely the airline, management, Boeing etc...:*

[Zarg]

If the co-pilot was heard to say, "All right, good night." It begs the question, what frequency? VHF? HF? Satellite? If VHF this would automatically - by line of sight - narrow the search area. As a former AusSAR SSARO in Australia, I am confused by the staggering amount of disinformation. A sudden or slight loss of pressurisation or fire on board as outlined above makes more sense to me.

[md80fanatic]

Ron Swanson said:

GTC58 said:
The B777 has a super critical wing, as such it is not really designed to have aerodynamic inherent stability. Without pilot inputs it doesn't take very long for the aircraft to depart its altitude and flight path in manual flight.

This is not true at all. The B777 is a fly by wire aircraft, the aircraft is flow by the primary flight computers (PFC) which interpret pilot inputs to the flying controls and the current flying conditions (speed, alt, configuration) and move the control surfaces as appropriate. If there is any inherent instability of the wing design it is irrelevant.

If the the auto pilot is switched off and the pilot makes no input on the flying controls the aircraft will continue to fly on roughly the same path as it was before the A/P disconnected.

So true. The wings are attached in the lateral axis (roll) with plenty of dihedral, which more or less will force wings level in the absence of control inputs. Along the longitudinal axis (pitch) the wing is mounted to the wing box with a positive cant of a 5 or 6 degrees relative to the deck angle. With that in mind, a "suicidal" pilot holding the yoke fully forward, and trimmed fully AND (aircraft nose down) should run out of control authority before the wings depart the aircraft in a dive, allowing the nose to rise checking the descent until the airspeed drops. IMHO, keeping a 777 in a headlong vertical descent from cruise would be impossible (thankfully).:ok:

[toffeez]

Anyone suggesting it was heading for Langkawi is contradicting the Thai authorities who said it didn't enter their airspace.

If the crew had such little time to act, I don't think they'd be thinking about whether Kuantan was open at that time of night. Penang would be the instinctive choice, with the hope of a straight-in approach.

[BOAC]

Heavens - what an embarrassing nonsense this thread has become. As far as I know we know two things on which to base all these 'definite' theories:

1) Contact was lost around the FIR boundary
2) The aircraft is missing

NOTHING else has been 100% confirmed as I understand it.

[Pontius Navigator]

And another reason for primary radar height finding to be inaccurate is that the size of the aircraft gave a strong radar target that fooled the height finding algorithms.

Are you suggesting stacked beam height finding rather than a nodder?

[SLFplatine]

Quote [Old Carthusian]:
However, even though the rarity of the hijack or pilot deviance explanation is significant this particular line of investigation still fits the known facts better.

Correct:ok:: While several theories could fit the facts of plane going 'dark' (cascading electrical, mechanical failures for whatever reason) and turning west off course (airworthiness, compromised avionics issues, cockpit fire -head for the nearest airfield you know) there is the fact of the Immarsat data indicating the plane continued to fly for 7+ hours (and the turn was per-programmed) -Unless of course the Immarsat data is not a valid incontrovertible fact which raises a whole set of questions as to why it has officially been presented as such.:(

[Msunduzi]

Heavens - what an embarrassing nonsense this thread has become. As far as I know we know two things on which to base all these 'definite' theories:

1) Contact was lost around the FIR boundary
2) The aircraft is missing

NOTHING else has been 100% confirmed as I understand it.

I posted early this morning something similar:

"Reading all the reports and opinions, I have learnt only two things, one, the plane is missing, two, nobody has a clue where, how or why. Which I think we all knew in the first place."

And little will be added until it is found!

[Ian W]

not B777 rated , but 0ver 10K hours on B737's, I have been thinking about this for a while.

I cannot help but still think its a catastrophic loss of electrical power, similar to to uncapping the battery switch and turning it off.......poof...instant darkness, no back up stby power....just total silence.

The engines will continue to work, being totally capable of suction feed only, as long as no large thrust changes are made.
The hydraulics will still operate as the hydraulic solenoids are only capable of being turned-off with electrical power, and without electrical power they are designed to default to open.

but Autopilot, autoflight systems, avionics, radios ACARS etc and vitally important pressurization will all fail.
If the crew were rendered unconscious thru this, the aircraft could well start a series of climbs and descends because the thin air at 35000ft is not conducive to aerodynamic stable flight.....but once it gets into thicker air at about 20000ft, the aerodynamic forces will allow the aircraft to reach a relatively stable flight regime, especially if the aircraft was in a cruise trimmed position at 35000ft.

the climb to 45000ft also makes sense w.r.t electrical failure......MACH TRIM......the aircraft has a tendency to tuck nose down at high cruise mach numbers, so the electrical mach trimmer applies some "nose-up trim" and then balances this with applied forward deflection of the control column........the loss of electrical power and the aircraft would release its forward control column input, hence the climb, into even thinner air, followed by phugoid action, as it would drop off at the top, eventually it would settle into an "in-trim" cruise at a much lower more dense atmosphere

Why the turn, I cannot explain

You'll need to explain the update to the Active Route and the 7 hours of powered SATCOM pings.

[FlyingOfficerKite]

The Flight Officers here are more than capable to respond to an electrical fire in flight and that is to get the beast on the ground as quickly as they can. It is all embedded indelibly in the mind. Reaction is immediate.

That quick reaction includes/may include donning oxygen masks, establishing communication between the pilots and, depending on the emergency, a number of further memory items ... concluding in a landing at the nearest suitable airport.

Disabling a transponder, transmitting 'all right, good night' and turning/climbing to FL450 does not form any part of the emergency procedure.

Selecting an emergency squawk, transmitting a (most likely, stressed/muffled) message to ATC, turning toward nearest/departure/alternate airfield and DESCENDING does ...

[TylerMonkey]

Plane seen in Maldives at 6:15 local = 9:15 Malaysia time.
This is 9 hrs after takeoff. Fuel load was 8 hrs maximum?
Plus fuel burn on initial trip north then backtrack to Malacca strait.
How is this sighting possibly MH370.?
Does not add up.

Who controls area.... Maldives ATC.? Do they not have a record of planes in that specific area at 6:15.?
Should be easy to rule it out if they do.

[INTEL101]

"Files containing records of simulations carried out on the program were deleted Feb. 3," Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu said.

Read more: Malaysia: Files Were Deleted From Flight Simulator - Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/malaysia-files-were-deleted-from-flight-simulator-2014-3#ixzz2wQ0SkxZZ)

Of course, when you hit the "delete" key the file is not actually deleted; all that happens is the index entry pointing to the file segment locations on the hard drive is deleted and as long as that disc space is not subsequently overwritten, it should be possible to restore the file....so hopefully more details on the missing files will emerge.

[ChiefT]

The information situation hasn't changed since MH370 disappeared: We know, that we know nothing except, that a B777-200ER with about 300 souls disappeared from the sky on 08.03.14.

The is no proof for any theory or rumours. We are getting since then contradicting informations only.

Possibly do the governments and secret services know more and this is a classical secret service operation by providing misleading information to the public.

Again: The only thing which is sure is, that we do not know anything about what happened.

[smiling monkey]

suninmyeyes - a very professional post, thank you.

Believe it or not, this is what pprune was like before every man and his dog with no connection to the aviation profession decided to pollute this thread with absolute garbage. A case in point, is that post by a Geologist from Singapore, FFS!! :rolleyes:

[philipat]

I fly through MLE frequently. It is a busy airport open 24/7. As indeed are all the other Indian/Sri Lankan airports suggested. Diego Garcia is a US/UK Military base which is a preferred location by the Alpahbet soup Agencies to ask quiet questions of disappeared folks. Until recently, SQ used to fly 744's through MLE between Europe and SIN. Now it's a daily SIN-MLE redeye turnaround.

These are NOT places where a 772 could land without being noticed??

[overthewing]

I'm quite astonished by the absolute confidence with which those ministers confirm something which is the opposite of what they confirmed the day before, without a flicker of a blush or an acknowledgement that this is a course correction. I'm not sure that 'facts' are what we've got or will get. My new term for what comes out of a Malaysian minister's mouth is 'mangosteens'. We've had tons of mangosteens dumped on us by those press conferences.

[SOPS]

People...get a grip. You can't...well at least in the 777s I fly...upload a second route and not know about it. And if you did, you would have to execute it to make it active, then you would have to be aware you are using Route Two. This thing is getting way out if hand.

What is happening is, as I said days ago and got deleted for, there is rubbish coming from the Malaysian ministers. They tell one story and then another. They are contradicting what they said as fact 12 hours previously, they say that they know something to be true, when yesterday it was false..or the other way round.

These people are used to saying something to the media, and never having it questioned.

They, in my opinion only, are trying to cover up something big time, but are so far out of their depth, trying to do it in front of the worlds media, the cracks are showing.

[n6330v]

What baffles me the most is the fact that tangible data has not yet been released on dispatched fuel load. I would imagine that such a piece would be absolutely vital to an investigation focusing on range capabilities and potential routing.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

If this aircraft crashed on ground (jungle) like the one in Shanksville (Flight 93) .. this will be difficult to find him (the fingerprint in Shanksville was very small !!)

[RasenSmiffy]

I think the sim files are a complete red herring.
I think it is safe to assume that an educated man such as an airline pilot, who was part of / masterminded a very involved and complicated hijacking would know how to remove data in a way that could not be traced and / or files recovered.
Surely in you were planning such a thing, covering your tracks would be considered and catered for.

[WilyB]

I'm quite astonished by the absolute confidence with which those ministers confirm something which is the opposite of what they confirmed the day before,

One word: windbags

The same, all the world over.

[Evanelpus]

Plane seen in Maldives at 6:15 local = 9:15 Malaysia time.

I thought the Maldives sightings have been rubbished?

[Capetonian]

Yes, the Maldives 'sightings' have been discounted.

[Sheep Guts]

Do you think they are purposely limiting the info so that the Chinese don't get to the wreckage first?
I've noticed now on the Wikipedia page, they delisted China as a helping nation. I think something has happened diplomatically or maybe it was getting too chaotic in the South China Sea last week.

[YYZjim]

Boeing, Rolls-Royce and Inmarsat have some data which has not been shared with the public. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that the unwashed public will not be able to make any more sense of the data than have the experts who have been analyzing it for more than a week. I agree with the principle that the authorities (governments and their experts) should have initial access to the data and should be given a reasonable time in secret to work with it. But, there comes a time when the public should be given a chance to do their own analysis. I think a week of secrecy is long enough and the time for disclosure has come.

I trust Boeing and Airbus, and the engine manufacturers, too. They are engineers whose integrity I trust. The government of Malaysia, not so much. The next of kin on passengers on flight MH370, in particular, should make a plea directly to Boeing, Rolls-Royce and Inmarsat to release their data or, in the alternative, for a description of the restrictions which have been imposed on their release of the data. In the latter case, the public would have a clearer idea of who is frustrating the data-flow. I see of the website MH370 Malaysian disappeared search rescue (http://www.mh370.ca) such a plea, and I support it.

[MPN11]

The time will be ... Whatever that particular 'system' is using.

I would expect ACARS, r/t recording, radar recording and indeed the aircraft to all be working to the same time, properly synchronised with an atomic clock somewhere. But then again, when trying to determine a sequence of events by reference to possibly different time-stamps ...

Just a passing thought, as the sequence of events seems to be being regarded as an absolute.

[toffeez]

Spot the difference:

1) "What baffles me the most is the fact that tangible data has not yet been released on dispatched fuel load. I would imagine that such a piece would be absolutely vital to an investigation focusing on range capabilities and potential routing."

2) "What baffles me the most is the fact that tangible data has not yet been investigated on dispatched fuel load. I would imagine that such a piece would be absolutely vital to an investigation focusing on range capabilities and potential routing."

Of course the fuel load and range is being analysed, but the investigation does not take place in public, nor should it.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

Surely in you were planning such a thing, covering your tracks would be considered and catered for.
Well .. is not always true
Think about the terrorist Atta (plenty evidences In the trunk of his car)

[Kerosene Kraut]

Expect a fuel load that is good to go to the southwest of Australia. At least that's where they are looking now.

[Lost in Saigon]

What baffles me the most is the fact that tangible data has not yet been released on dispatched fuel load. I would imagine that such a piece would be absolutely vital to an investigation focusing on range capabilities and potential routing.

Assuming a "normal" fuel load for this flight was boarded when it departed at 00:41, and assuming the pinging at 8:11 is accurate, the aircraft was most likely flown until it ran out of fuel.

That tells me that whoever was once in control of the aircraft was disabled or dead at 8:11. The aircraft then crashed and could not have landed at an airstrip of any kind.

Thoughts?

[Sober Lark]

In the ICAOs Asia / Pacific regional report dated 2010, I read about the implementation of an ADS-B air-ground surveillance system to facilitate data exchange in boundary areas between neighboring ACCs of States in that area. It appears ADS-B ground stations were under construction (since 2007)for sharing in the SE Asia Sub Region of Malaysia, Thailand, Laois, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and that operational trials were expected to be conducted by the end of 2010. ADS-B is recognised as being more accurate alternative surveillance solution to radar in areas where radar installations are impractical. Does any one know what happened to this plan? Was it up and running even partially?

[dicks-airbus]

@Lost in Saigon: Read the thread. Known (unverified):

* Last two pings came from same location = airframe not moving but operative.

I think we can rule out the fire and crash scenarios. Why steal a plane to then crash it?

"There are no coincidences. Everything has a reason. Your brain may not know the reason. It may never find out."

[n6330v]

toffeez,

Although I agree with your outlook, as someone with quite a bit of expertise in public relations, I feel that transparency in crisis communication is fundamentally important in keeping the media flocks away from exactly what they're doing now. Releasing known and easily attainable information is an easy way of achieving transparency.

[atlast]

From this source

http://www.icao.int/APAC/Meetings/2014%20SEACG21SAIOCG41/IP12%20Kuala%20Lumpur%20FIR%20ADSC%20CPDLC%20Updates.pdf

It was up and running but it's reliability was questionable so it was discontinued.
Supposedly to be up and running again in MAY 2014

[Lost in Saigon]

@Lost in Saigon: Read the thread. Known (unverified):

* Last two pings came from same location = airframe not moving but operative.

I think we can rule out the fire and crash scenarios. Why steal a plane to then crash it?

"There are no coincidences. Everything has a reason. Your brain may not know the reason. It may never find out."

Sorry, I missed that part about stationary pings.

Are you saying that is proof the aircraft landed or was ditched intact?

[DX Wombat]

If we look at the fact that this a/c had vanished since 12 day without a real trace where to search and the resources brought in, it seems to me this was probably a long and well planned action. Maybe, maybe not. The location of the crashed aircraft - Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Andes_flight_disaster) was not discovered for over two months and then only after a ten days trek through the Andes by two of the survivors.

[Pontius Navigator]

I feel that transparency in crisis communication is fundamentally important in keeping the media flocks away from exactly what they're doing now. Releasing known and easily attainable information is an easy way of achieving transparency.

Media Comms was discussed in the UK press yesterday. Essentially they said neither MAS nor the Malaysian authorities had any experience in crisis communication.

They also noted that the MAS IT Department had activated a 'dark' website which was more transparent with its information.

[CodyBlade]

What baffles me the most is the fact that tangible data has not yet been released on dispatched fuel load. I would imagine that such a piece would be absolutely vital to an investigation focusing on range capabilities and potential routing.

'Released' to whom, the paparazzi? What are they going to do with it?

They don't even know [expected] what questions to ask.

[Yancey Slide]

Said expert said emergencies can be as small as a circuit breaker to as large as all 4 (ALL FOUR?) engines failing!
Then talked about South Atlantic south China sea.:ugh::ugh:

Don't get me started on the "you have to climb and convert altitude to energy if you lose an engine during cruise" stuff he was spouting. And this guy supposedly flew?

[Hornbill88]

Quote:
What baffles me the most is the fact that tangible data has not yet been released on dispatched fuel load. I would imagine that such a piece would be absolutely vital to an investigation focusing on range capabilities and potential routing.
'Released' to whom, the paparazzi? What are they going to do with it?

They don't even know [expected] what questions to ask.


Quite right, Cory Blade.

And in any case the CEO of MAS did answer this question a day or two ago.

[A310bcal]

Having been retired for more time than I care to admit, just a thought....whilst flying on active route 1 , is it not possible to put in the fix page, any 5 letter waypoint ? Then at the desired "moment", a quick Heading Select around towards ones "fix " turns the aircraft towards the fix and then , having made the big turn to new desired route, time enough to build up ones new route, altho' perhaps not enough time as the plane appears to pass the first fix/waypoint and then turn hard back towards the next airway waypoint....assuming the flight paths shown initially are correct! Thus no need to construct Route 2 at all......

[dicks-airbus]

Are you saying that is proof the aircraft landed or was ditched intact?

Of course not, otherwise we would all be a lot wiser by now. :ugh:

[Pontius Navigator]

Yancey, as said earlier, real professionals are keeping out of it and only the professional talking heads getting a hansom pay check are on the box.

[The Wawa Zone]

Quote:
GTC58 said:
Quote:
The B777 has a super critical wing, as such it is not really designed to have aerodynamic inherent stability. Without pilot inputs it doesn't take very long for the aircraft to depart its altitude and flight path in manual flight.

--------------------------------
This is not true at all. The B777 is a fly by wire aircraft, the aircraft is flow by the primary flight computers (PFC) which interpret pilot inputs to the flying controls and the current flying conditions (speed, alt, configuration) and move the control surfaces as appropriate. If there is any inherent instability of the wing design it is irrelevant.

If the the auto pilot is switched off and the pilot makes no input on the flying controls the aircraft will continue to fly on roughly the same path as it was before the A/P disconnected.



A question for actual B777 piloten only plz: So is it therefore possible that a B777-200ER could fly on with an incapacitated crew, no LNAV or VNAV, fuel burn GW and trim changes, and stay in the air no doubt with phugoid altitude excursions and heading changes typical of those reported by RMAF AD radar ? And of course, going near but not through the waypoints as alluded to by the latest Malaysian press conference effort.
If you tried it in the sim, what happened ?

[mbd]

If the aircraft had landed, would the ACARS continue to transmit on the ground and wouldn't the this look like an arc to the satellite?

[DespairingTraveller]

@dicks-airbus
* Last two pings came from same location = airframe not moving but operative.

No. No. That's an assumption that has been permeating this thread, but it is only one possible interpretation of what has been said.

The "arcs/corridors" are simply the loci of all possible positions that satisfy the constraints imposed by analysis of the satellite signals. The exact position of a ping on the arc can't be determined, or they could simply search at the last point!

If the last two pings were both from a 40 degree locus (which I think is a leak/speculation, not officially stated anyway) all that that would mean is that the last two pings came from positions on the same 40 degree locus, assuming that the two loci are too far apart to fly between in an hour.

The aircraft being stationary, whether landed, crashed or ditched, is one possible interpretation, but so is that it remained flying, either along the arc for some reason, or on a course which intersected the arc in two places an hour apart, within whatever margin of error is implicit in the analysis. It could have ended its life flying round in circles, for example...

Stating that the airframe was stationary is tempting, but is going beyond what has been announced.

[Lynx8]

Whoever is in charge of this investigation (who?) has very few ideas and very well confused.

The smoke spread to the media is firing back on them and it is now too much to deal with. Usually in this cases another "big event" happens to divert the attention. It happened many times in the past world wide. It will happen again.

Many witnesses in their key positions, mainly civil and military radar personnel, are on the cutting edge. We all know that.

God bless all the pax/crew missing and other people linked to the facts that in the future will be missing in unknown circumstances.

[Evanelpus]

Anyone else seen this yet?

Pieces of aircraft found floating on Andhra coast? : South, News - India Today (http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/aircraft-debris-missing-malaysian-plane-flight-mh-370-andhra-coast-kutta-gouduru-beach-malaysia-airlines-boeing-777-bay-of-bengal-indian-ocean/1/350197.html)

[Token Bird]

@DespairingTraveller

The aircraft being stationary, whether landed, crashed or ditched, is one possible interpretation, but so is that it remained flying, either along the arc for some reason, or on a course which intersected the arc in two places an hour apart, within whatever margin of error is implicit in the analysis. It could have ended its life flying round in circles, for example...

If we assume that it has not become stationary, but has continued to fly but has been present on the same arc at both 07:11 and 08:11, can we make the maths work if we know the changing direction of the southern arc if we follow it south and we assume that the aircraft is flying on a constant track? IE. Where would they have converged, as it were? Or would that not have occurred at all?

[FlyingOfficerKite]

real professionals are keeping out of it

Not sure who you mean (?), but I doubt there is anyone who has any inkling about this mystery within the 'professional' aviation community.

The only 'professionals' who could Post on here are hardly likely too!

This is PPRuNe and although the disappearance has caused unprecented interest in all respects and, apart from the tragic human element whatever the outcome, should be taken in the normal manner - 99% bu****it and 1% interesting comment!

Now with 7 hours endurance the Nazca Lines are ...; or could it be an abduction; who assassinated JFK ... back to PPRuNeing!!!

[n6330v]

CodyBlade,

Released to the general public. Transparency implies being transparent with your audience. It doesn't matter if they can or will do anything with the information you furnish, but in crisis management, information calms and furthermore provides you with much needed credibility.

Either way, the whole situation is frustrating for everyone involved. I'm just baffled at the way MAS and the Malaysian govt are handling the situation from a communication perspective.

[4Greens]

Briefing: We do not know what happened at this time. All we do know is that there have been a number of human errors in the system.

[jmeagher]

Basic human nature. Control and fear.

When things happen to us that we don't understand/are beyond our control, our first instinct is to "control" the uncontrollable by gaining a full understanding of it.

When something terrible happens and we can't understand it, the tension creates a huge vacuum which is so powerful that we would rather fill it with nonesense than let it stand until we can understand. Our hope is that occasionally the nonesense turns out to contain some real answers. It has happened—the outsider perspective sometimes provides fresh solutions (and we're all outsiders here to a degree when it comes to this investigation :)

Pprune is a fantastic technical forum for exploring technical/operational ideas and brainstorming solutions. As such, it occasionally also serves this other function of helping to fill void.

Both are essential and important, although the latter understandably annoying to the more-technically inclined. From watching this board for the last few years, I'd say give it some time, things will at some point return to normal. In the meantime I think pprune is providing a valuable public service and I'd like to thank the dedicated people who provide this little corner of the world for all of us come together. You work—and I know it's work—is appreciated.

jm

[Pontius Navigator]

FO Kite, I was referring to the previous post referring to the retired RAF Lt Col and other talking heads on TV not in this forum.

It was said earlier that current T7 pilots were generally too sensible to go live on TV.

As this thread is demonstrating, there are many strands to this mystery, aircraft systems, external monitoring systems, air defence and ATC systems and many others. Too easy for your talking head to be asked a question outside his knowledge and experience but to spot off anyway.

[CodyBlade]

Attention Press! Ask this:

If it exhausted fuel and ditched in Southern Indian Ocean . How come no ELT Signal.

[AndyJS]

Interesting article in the UK Guardian:

"What the air traffic controllers knew about how to stop 'flying blind'
No matter where it is, the Malaysia Airlines jet suffered from outdated technology. Eyes in the tower saw this coming"

"It has come as a shock to the general public to learn that commercial flights aren’t monitored constantly by the high-tech GPS tracking systems we’ve come to expect in our cars and smartphones."

MH370: what the air traffic controllers knew about how to stop 'flying blind' | Barbara S Peterson | Comment is free | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/18/mh370-air-traffic-controller-radar)

[DX Wombat]

Anyone else seen this yet?
I've just read the very short article which contains the following:

there was no confirmation from any official if the objects seen floating were indeed pieces of an aircraft.

[grimmrad]

From the NYT: The Malaysian authorities have asked the Federal Bureau of Investigation for help in recovering data that was deleted from a home flight simulator belonging to one of the pilots of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet, in the hope that it will provide some clue to what happened to the plane.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/world/asia/missing-malaysia-flight.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0

[dmba]

What if something happened just when the Captain was taking a break, with the First Officer in charge of the aircraft?

What I mean is: something the Captain could have dealt with himself but where the FO with limited flying experience wasn't able to react quickly enough in the few vital seconds when it could have been sorted out. The Captain got back to the flight deck a few seconds later but by then it was too late.

It was suggested that the timing of that moment to take a break would be a bit weird. 40 mins in and precisely between ATC. Doesn't make a lot of sense but then what does...?

[Dont Hang Up]

Interesting article in the UK Guardian:

"What the air traffic controllers knew about how to stop 'flying blind'
No matter where it is, the Malaysia Airlines jet suffered from outdated technology. Eyes in the tower saw this coming"

"It has come as a shock to the general public to learn that commercial flights aren’t monitored constantly by the high-tech GPS tracking systems we’ve come to expect in our cars and smartphones."

MH370: what the air traffic controllers knew about how to stop 'flying blind' | Barbara S Peterson | Comment is free | theguardian.com

Only interesting in its lack of understanding of the distinction between surveillance and navigation.

[DespairingTraveller]

@Token Bird If we assume that it has not become stationary, but has continued to fly but has been present on the same arc at both 07:11 and 08:11, can we make the maths work if we know the changing direction of the southern arc if we follow it south and we assume that the aircraft is flying on a constant track? IE. Where would they have converged, as it were? Or would that not have occurred at all? You'd have to make an assumption about its speed - strictly its ground speed, since the arcs are defined relative to a point in space fixed relative to the Earth's surface (the IOR satellite's geostationary position) . If you did that, then there'd only be one heading that could link any two points on the arc. But since you don't know where the first point is, it doesn't help find the second.

Really you need to start from a known position - last radar plot, for example - and then work out a tree of possible locations each hour from knowing which "arcs" it was on each hour, what airspeed it might have maintained and factoring in winds aloft etc. Horribly complicated and error-prone, but I imagine that there have been clever, well-informed, people doing that for days. It may be how the NTSB tracks on the Aussie search area maps were derived, I suppose.

[philip2412]

DX Wombat

That`s right,but yo can`t compare the ressources used then with MH 370.They always searched in the wrong place.

[FlyingOfficerKite]

Pontius Navigator

Understood!

That Post by a 777 Captain was interesting ... and he ended with it being a mystery!

It's now 1650Z on 19 March 2014 - where are those people and (hopefully) what are they doing as I Post this?!

That's the important issue!

[smiling monkey]

Quote:
What baffles me the most is the fact that tangible data has not yet been released on dispatched fuel load. I would imagine that such a piece would be absolutely vital to an investigation focusing on range capabilities and potential routing.
'Released' to whom, the paparazzi? What are they going to do with it?

They don't even know [expected] what questions to ask.

Quite right, Cory Blade.

And in any case the CEO of MAS did answer this question a day or two ago.

The Avherald (http://www.avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0) did report that the flight had the standard amount of fuel on board with the normal contingencies and reserves.

[Dont Hang Up]

@Token Bird
Quote:
If we assume that it has not become stationary, but has continued to fly but has been present on the same arc at both 07:11 and 08:11, can we make the maths work if we know the changing direction of the southern arc if we follow it south and we assume that the aircraft is flying on a constant track? IE. Where would they have converged, as it were? Or would that not have occurred at all?
You'd have to make an assumption about its speed - strictly its ground speed, since the arcs are defined relative to a point in space fixed relative to the Earth's surface (the IOR satellite's geostationary position) . If you did that, then there'd only be one heading that could link any two points on the arc. But since you don't know where the first point is, it doesn't help find the second.

Really you need to start from a known position - last radar plot, for example - and then work out a tree of possible locations each hour from knowing which "arcs" it was on each hour, what airspeed it might have maintained and factoring in winds aloft etc. Horribly complicated and error-prone, but I imagine that there have been clever, well-informed, people doing that for days. It may be how the NTSB tracks on the Aussie search area maps were derived, I suppose.

Any attempt at calculating movement is meaningless unless you know the tolerance of the ping-ranging in the first place. The maths just doesn't work. However as a general rule, the chances of being the same range from the satellite after one hour of flying... Well it's possible but one heck of a coincidence.

[Lost in Saigon]

The Avherald (http://www.avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0) did report that the flight had the standard amount of fuel on board with the normal contingencies and reserves.

Normal fuel at departure means at 08:11 the fuel was nearly exhausted. Therefore anything that happened after 08:11 was totally unplanned.

No Hijacker or suicidal pilot would let the fuel run down that low because it means you were no longer able to control the outcome.

[Yancey Slide]

bono:

British Airways Flight 9, sometimes referred to by its callsign Speedbird 9 or as the Jakarta incident,[1] was a scheduled British Airways flight from London Heathrow to Auckland, with stops in Bombay, Madras, Kuala Lumpur, Perth, and Melbourne.
On 24 June 1982, the route was flown by the City of Edinburgh, a 747-236B. The aircraft flew into a cloud of volcanic ash thrown up by the eruption of Mount Galunggung (approximately 180 kilometres (110 mi) south-east of Jakarta, Indonesia), resulting in the failure of all four engines. The reason for the failure was not immediately apparent to the crew or ground control. The aircraft was diverted to Jakarta in the hope that enough engines could be restarted to allow it to land there. The aircraft was able to glide far enough to exit the ash cloud, and all engines were restarted (although one failed again soon after), allowing the aircraft to land safely at the Halim Perdanakusuma Airport in Jakarta.

Are you saying that they climbed on 0 engines to gain altitude and energy?
Are you saying that a 777 at cruise altitude climbs on the 1 remaining engine like the talking head on CNN?

[island_airphoto]

Why no ELT? Because no one took it out of the airplane and put it in the water.

Re the Guardian: 101 different tracking systems do nothing when they are turned off :ugh:

[Sqwak7700]

No Hijacker or suicidal pilot would let the fuel run down that low because it means you were no longer able to control the outcome.


You should take a look at Ethiopian 961:

Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_961)

[memories of px]

he might have activated route 2, more likely he wanted to go to a particular
waypoint, having entered the name, if there was more than one in the world it would have shown the lat/long of each one, or if it was a navaid, he may have just chosen the wrong one. another possibility is that he wanted to descend to fl270 and put it in the heading window by mistake, all possibly under the influence of hypoxia.
if the aircraft was in vnav path it would keep its altitude until the engines failed, speed would reduce to 10 ten knots above min clean speed and then default to speed priority and commence a descent, all stable.

[Lost in Saigon]

Question ? Assuming the aircraft flew on without human input until it ran out of fuel. When it hit the sea, would the aircraft fuselage stay intact, or would it disintegrate creating lots of surface wreckage ?

I would expect lots of surface wreckage.

Even if “Sully” Sullenberger tried to land a B777 at night on ocean swells I would expect lots of surface wreckage.

[memories of px]

it certainly wouldnt climb on one engine, the engine out altitude would be around 22,000 ft, so if on one engine it would have to go down.

[Lost in Saigon]

No Hijacker or suicidal pilot would let the fuel run down that low because it means you were no longer able to control the outcome.


You should take a look at Ethiopian 961:

Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_961)

Okay, you got me there....

Let me rephrase that....

No INTELLIGENT Hijacker or suicidal pilot would let the fuel run down that low because it means you were no longer able to control the outcome.

The hijackers demanded the plane to be flown to Australia;[4][11] as they had been reading the in-flight magazine stating that the 767 could make the trip on a full tank and the plane had been refueled at its last stopover as well as the maximum flying time of the airplane. Leul tried to explain they had only taken on the fuel needed for the scheduled flight and thus could not even make a quarter of the journey, but the hijackers did not believe him.[10]

[Lonewolf_50]

Anyone else seen this yet?

Pieces of aircraft found floating on Andhra coast? : South, News - India Today (http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/aircraft-debris-missing-malaysian-plane-flight-mh-370-andhra-coast-kutta-gouduru-beach-malaysia-airlines-boeing-777-bay-of-bengal-indian-ocean/1/350197.html)
FWIW, currents in the Bay of Bengal are mostly clockwise this time of year. The two links below have info for those interested as it may relate to a search, either by the Indian Navy or others, should this report bear fruit.

Bay of Bengal (http://www.sea-seek.com/?geo=1802)
http://www.ipcbee.com/vol32/008-ICESE2012-D026.pdf

I could have sworn that tvasquez had posted some surface current info previously in this thread, but I can't find it. :confused:

[Yancey Slide]

it certainly wouldnt climb on one engine, the engine out altitude would be around 22,000 ft, so if on one engine it would have to go down.
I know that, you know that.....

[G0ULI]

Having read all the posts on this thread and followed this incident closely since it happened, I conclude that the Malaysian authorities and others have been transparent in releasing information. The problem is that every snippet of information has been challenged, twisted and analysed to death on this forum. The fuel load of the aircraft, Inmarsat pings, acars inoperative, flight crew and pilots, everything that has been issued has been challenged and more information demanded.

This incident started with the authorities completely in the dark, just like the rest of us. As the investigation has progressed quite a lot of information has been released or established from other sources. Can we just try an accept that the information supplied to date is the best that the authorities have, or are prepared to share at this stage of the investigation.

It is pointless being supplied with the most accurate data available and then speculating what would have happened if the data was different.

I know from working in the Far East that when pushed people tend to give you the answer they think you want to hear, rather than admit they don't know, but in these unprecedented circumstances I think that the authorities are doing their best to conform to Western expectations of transparency and accuracy.

So can we give them a break and confine the speculation to what is officially known and just accept that some information is not going to be made available.

[FlyingOfficerKite]

No Hijacker or suicidal pilot would let the fuel run down that low because it means you were no longer able to control the outcome.

Yes, it's all about control on your terms.

I don't think any pilot suicide has been planned technically in this manner or been extended to a 'no fuel' situation - more a take control, point the nose down and go scenario.

[Pontius Navigator]

Question ? Assuming the aircraft flew on without human input until it ran out of fuel. When it hit the sea, would the aircraft fuselage stay intact, or would it disintegrate creating lots of surface wreckage ?

As with everything else here, it depends.

There have been several recorded instances of aircraft making soft landings without human intervention. Admittedly the ones I know of were military jets where the crew had banged out, but there is no reason to suppose that the aircraft may have made a very shallow descent, alighted and remained intact.

Had this been the case, and passengers were not previously incapacitated, then there would be no reason why life rafts and slides were not deployed.

[MrFixer!!!]

In addition to looking at all aspects, lets not forget 777s have had fires breaking out in wiring due to unexplained reasons!!

One very fine example was Egyptair 777-200, luckily it happened on ground Accident: Egyptair B772 at Cairo on Jul 29th 2011, cockpit fire (http://www.avherald.com/h?article=44078aa7&opt=0)

and if something similar happened to MH370, we all know how limited options crew had???

[OleOle]

Today I learned three new things:

1) Thai primary radar painted MH370 heading SW (new information, previously it was W) minutes after transponder loss => could mean MH370 wanted to return to KUL, with heading roughly 200°.

2) The NTSB seems to be convinced MH370 went "southward" to antartica with heading roughly 200° (as of routes depicted in search areas of AMSA charts).

3) If in track mode the FMC runs out of way points, i.e it reaches the last way point and no further way point is programmed the a/c falls back into HDG mode with heading previously set.


So if MH370 went to IGREX in track mode (why?), and that was the only/last waypoint programmed, it would then fall into HDG mode. Maybe HDG was still set to 200° from the previous attempt to return to KUL. That would be consistent with MH370 ending up where AMSA is looking for it.

[DespairingTraveller]

@Don't Hang Up
However as a general rule, the chances of being the same range from the satellite after one hour of flying... Well it's possible but one heck of a coincidence.Agree entirely - but I was just pointing out that there other possibilities than same arc=>stationary=>landed=>hijacked, etc., etc....

And certainly calculations of likely positions from the ping history will be messy and fraught - but it sounds as though they have little else to go on at the moment, unfortunately.

[Yellow Son]

Is there a respectable summary anywhere out there on the technical details? Anyone less familiar with modern avionics than contributors to this forum is not being helped a lot by the press reports on this case. There is loose talk by the yard from journos, who clearly know even less than I do, about comms systems, satellite tracking and the like; the ones I've read clearly have only the vaguest idea as to what they are talking about. To be fair, that's just the newspapers (and the idiot box, of course), where it's naive to expect much informed comment.

My question is whether there has appeared anywhere a respectable itemisation of the onboard and external systems and what is available from them - or at least what the authorities have chosen to release along those lines?

[GTC58]

If they tried to return to the closest airport it does not make any sense to see these waypoints in the FMC. The 777 FMC has an Alternate airport function which at any time shows min 4 of the closest suitable airports. It takes 2 button pushes then to navigate directly to the selected airport via FMC which any B777 pilot would have used if on fire or any other emergency which warranted immediate landing.

ELT has an Off switch in cockpit.

[RichManJoe]

My experience, working with orbit analysts on many satellites, some geostationary, some geosync, some other, these are the most incredible analysts there are. They, by discipline, leave no stone unturned. So I am sure they have analyzed IOR's orbit to the n'th degree and have taken all this into account, along with error bars.

One question I have is how accurate they know the turn-around time for the ACARs TNC on the aircraft, as this device was not designed for ranging. My experience of TNCs are that they are software driven, not hardware, and there could be some uncertainty, on the order of maybe microseconds, depending upon the microprocessor clock speed. A microsecond is ~1000 feet, so I expect the uncertainty = uncertainty time / cos(sat elev), so maybe the uncertainty due to the TNC is on the order of a quarter mile or so, which, again is in the noise?

[Heli-phile]

When will people get it in their noggin that a 777-200 WILL NOT achieve, let alone "cruise" at FL450. :mad:
There has never been any accurate nor reliable indication as to MH370 climbing to FL450. Primary radar can only roughly approximate aircraft altitude from slant angle and range. And as for the question:
2 Trent's operating at max continuos, clawing at the sky trying to attain FL450 tend to consume fuel at a prodigious rate compared to a cruise power setting at the optimum FL ......:rolleyes:

[Pontius Navigator]

Is there a respectable summary anywhere out there on the technical details?

The UK Daily Telegraph had fairly comprehensive summary yesterday of much that has been on Pprune.

Today a number of experts have been cited:

Steven Frischling, US|Aviation Security expert - taken by force - his source, Department of Homeland Security - a pilot involved incident as there was no evidence to support a crash. One metal cargo container position is unaccounted for on the manifest.

John Cane, cane Associates Aviation Consultants, former Lt Col US Marine Corp and Harrier pilot - crashed in the Indian Ocean or in Thai or Malay jungle - not a malfunction as it flew for 6 hours. Logic -criminal act.

Jim Brauchie, former USAF Pilot now aviation lawyer - crashed in ocean and not jungle as not picked up by radar. Landing somewhere, not probable.

Robert Mark, commercial pilot and editor of Aviation International News Safety magazine - outlandish becoming more plausible. Shadowed Singapore Airliner same as Israelies have done once.

[SLFgeek]

Any attempt at calculating movement is meaningless unless you know the tolerance of the ping-ranging in the first place. The maths just doesn't work. However as a general rule, the chances of being the same range from the satellite after one hour of flying... Well it's possible but one heck of a coincidence.

Right, because the satellite rings (as they are being presented) are not finite lines upon the earth. They are likely a close approximation. Telling us that the last ping was on (or near) the 40-deg ring might actually be 40-deg ring +/- 2.5 deg (i.e. the reporting tolerance). Depending on ground speed of the aircraft, it might have been within this reporting arc but actually moving somewhat tangent to the satellite central location (not to mention that the satellite drifts slightly about it's intended parking station).

[mseyfang]

It was suggested that the timing of that moment to take a break would be a bit weird. 40 mins in and precisely between ATC. Doesn't make a lot of sense but then what does...?

Makes perfect sense as a theory to me. Overnight flight, a few cups of coffee before departure and probably over an hour since having a chance to use the can as the time pre-departure would have been tied up in preflight activities. Plane is at TOC on a routine flight, LNAV, VNAV engaged, benign weather, a routine handoff upcoming. Getting up to use the lav at this point in the flight doesn't strike me at all as odd or implausible.

[ShenziRubani]

i can't believe the Malaysians and the media are throwing the "data deleted from the pilot's flight sim" as a new lead, new carrot thrown at people. Oh yes, like no one deletes old routes, old files from flight sims, games, software. Why don't they wait until they analyze the deleted data and identify it before making it public.

[Ulysse]

Shortly after the aircraft was posted as missing a Malaysian Government minister, or perhaps an airline official, announced that the aircraft had undergone a maintenance check ten days previous to this flight.

Does anyone know if the following questions have been asked and/or addressed?:

1. What items were covered on this maintenance check and were any snags discovered and rectified ?
2. Had the aircraft flown since that check?
3. If so, were any unservicebilities logged and if so what were they?

There is undoubtedly vested interest involved in banging on about hijacking rather than more likely scenarios involving aircraft failure.

[L337]

I could have sworn that tvasquez had posted some surface current info previously in this thread, but I can't find it.

Anything tvasquez posts is gold dust amongst these pages and pages of speculation. Google Tim Vasquez and Air France 447 for a deeply impressive analysis of the weather on that particular night in question.

A link to his post on this thread...http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-282.html#post8385324

[aguadalte]

The SOFAR Channel (http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/sound01/background/acoustics/media/sofar.html)

NOAA Ocean Explorer Home (http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/welcome.html)

(bolds are mine)

This "channeling" of sound occurs because of the properties of sound and the temperature and pressure differences at different depths in the ocean. The ocean is divided into horizontal layers in which the speed of sound is greatly influenced by temperature in the upper layers and by pressure in the deeper layers. As temperature decreases, the speed of sound decreases, and as pressure (depth) increases, the speed of sound increases. Sound waves bend, or refract, towards the area of minimum sound speed. Therefore, a sound wave traveling through a thermocline (a region of rapid change in temperature with depth) tends to bend downward as the speed of sound decreases with decreasing water temperature, but then is refracted back upward as the speed of sound increases with increasing depth and pressure. This up-down-up-down bending of low-frequency sound waves allows the sound to travel many thousands of meters without the signal losing significant energy. The depth of this “channel” varies in different oceans depending on the salinity, the temperature, and depth of the water. At low and middle latitudes, the SOFAR channel axis lies between 600-1200 m below the sea surface. It is deepest in the subtropics and comes to the surface in high latitudes, where the sound propagates in the surface layer. Scientists often take advantage of the properties of the SOFAR channel. We have learned that by placing hydrophones at just the right depth (that is, at the axis of the sound channel) we are able to record sounds such as whale calls, earthquakes and man-made noise that occur many kilometers from the hydrophone. As a matter of fact, sometimes we can hear low-frequency sounds across entire ocean basins!


Faster than the Speed of Sound...

The speed of a wave is the rate at which vibrations move through the medium. Sound moves at a faster speed in water (1500 meters/sec) than in air (about 340 meters/sec) because the mechanical properties of water differ from air. Temperature also affects the speed of sound (e.g. sound travels faster in warm water than in cold water) and is very influential in some parts of the ocean. Remember that wavelength and frequency are related because the lower the frequency the longer the wavelength. More specifically, the wavelength of a sound equals the speed of sound in either air or water divided by the frequency of the wave. Therefore, a 20 Hz sound wave is 75 m long in the water (1500/20 = 75) whereas a 20 Hz sound wave in air is only 17 m long (340/20 = 17) in air.


As we descend below the surface of the sea, the speed of sound decreases with decreasing temperature. At the bottom of the thermocline, the speed of sound reaches its minimum; this is also the axis of the sound channel. Below the thermocline the temperature remains constant, but pressure increases which causes the speed of sound to increase again. Sound waves bend, or refract, towards the area of minimum sound speed. Therefore, a sound wave traveling in the sound channel bends up and down and up and down and can travel thousands of meters.

The SOFAR Channel

Sound in the sea can often be “trapped” and effectively carried very long distances by the “deep sound channel ” that exists in the ocean. This SOFAR or SOund Fixing And Ranging channel is so named because it was discovered that there was a "channel" in the deep ocean within which the acoustic energy from a small explosive charge (deployed in the water by a downed aviator) could travel over long distances. An array of hydrophones could be used to roughly locate the source of the charge thereby allowing rescue of downed pilots far out to sea. Sound, and especially low-frequency sound, can travel thousands of meters with very little loss of signal.

The field of ocean acoustics provides scientists with the tools needed to quantitatively describe sound in the sea. By measuring the frequency, amplitude, location and seasonality of sounds in the sea, a great deal can be learned about our oceanic environment and its inhabitants. Hydroacoustic monitoring (listening to underwater sounds) has allowed scientists to measure global warming, listen to earthquakes and the movement of magma through the sea floor during major volcanic eruptions, and to record low-frequency calls of large whales the world over. As our oceans become more noisy each year, the field of ocean acoustics will grow and only become more essential.

[ManaAdaSystem]

Pilots have oxygen masks in the cockpit, and the first thing we do if we detect smoke in the cockpit is to put them on! Not the bloody smoke hood!

What is this? Amateurs night?

[MountainBear]

What are the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads five times in a row?

Having flipped a coin four times in a row and got heads every time what are the odds of getting heads again if I flip it one more time?

I don't think probability works in the way you imply.

On the contrary, it works exactly like the way I stated because there is no one right way to ask statistical questions. Both questions are legitimate statistical questions. The issue then becomes which question is the best fit for the facts at hand. Given the fact that we do not even know if ACARs failed at all, asking the question "what are the odds of the transponder failing given an ACARs failure" is asking a question based upon a false premise.

The meaningful question in the absence of data is "what are the odds of getting five heads in a row?" or in this case the question I asked about both failing in a short time span. This allows the investigator to compare two or more chains of causation without assuming anything. The alternative is to confuse selection bias with statistical probabilities.

[caevans]

Swissair 111 lost near Peggy's Cove was an MD-11.

Air Canada 797 landed in KCVG - Cinncinnati.

[Airbubba]

Pilots have oxygen masks in the cockpit, and the first thing we do if we detect smoke in the cockpit is to put them on! Not the bloody smoke hood!

What is this? Amateurs night?

I agree, something tells me this guy isn't an airline pilot.

[Hunter58]

Heli-phile, Porterhouse

you are incredible! You KNOW they selected menus to stop ACARS?

The only FACTS we have is that the transponder stopped sending return signals and that ACARS stopped sending messages. WHY this is, we do NOT KNOW.

And the "Track" with waypoints is not official knowledge but an assumption by someone playing around with skyvector.

[MountainBear]

If you had followed this thread you would have read the factors that make the fire in flight scenario a less than likely option. Fire cannot deselect transponders, nor call up menu options to shut down ACARS systematically, let alone preselect route 2 waypoints on the FMS. But that isn't the biggest problem with the fire theory. The biggest problem is that the fire has to meet two conditions.

(a) the fire had to burn such it disabled the power to certain electrical components and not other electrical components despite the fact that these electrical components are on the same power circuit.

(b) that this fire was hot and heavy enough to result in the incapacitation of the pilots yet light enough to burn itself out before effecting any of the control surfaces, cabling, etc so the plane could fly for five more hours.

[olasek]

The only FACTS we have is that the transponder stopped sending return signals and that ACARS stopped sending messages.
No, we know much more, read post #5791 by D.S. which enumerates the FACTS we know today. He also wrote well argued post why the facts we know today are in direct contradictions with the theory of this Goodfellow or whatever his name.

[SLFplatine]

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike757007 http://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-311.html#post8388141)
Question ? Assuming the aircraft flew on without human input until it ran out of fuel. When it hit the sea, would the aircraft fuselage stay intact, or would it disintegrate creating lots of surface wreckage ?

Saigon 480
I would expect lots of surface wreckage.

Even if “Sully” Sullenberger tried to land a B777 at night on ocean swells I would expect lots of surface wreckage.

Pontius Navigator
As with everything else here, it depends.

There have been several recorded instances of aircraft making soft landings without human intervention. Admittedly the ones I know of were military jets where the crew had banged out, but there is no reason to suppose that the aircraft may have made a very shallow descent, alighted and remained intact.

Photo of a typical day on the ocean at the end of the southern arc:
http://c43690.r90.cf2.rackcdn.com/m5509_crop18_608x404_13937687032C65.jpg

[SteveZRH]

The following quote is from Chris Goodfellow as posted on Google+. He has 20 years experience as a Canadian Class-1 instrumented-rated pilot for multi-engine aircraft.

In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time.

Not to question his expertise, but the Swissair DC-10 was an MD-11. They communicated quite a bit during the whole emergency and they were well trying to dump fuel and land in Halifax when they have been taken over by fire, and went down like a stone. They never tried to ditch in the ocean with a fire and in the middle of the night.

Before complaining about the lack of skills in journalism, he should also make a quick google search to check his facts ...

[MountainSnake]

My view on this:
Something very dramatic happened aboard, maybe a fire in the electric bay and all went black, no comms, toxic fumes and so on. The captain promptly set a course to return and thought that Langkawi airport was the best option due to its clear terrain, low traffic and direct approach. Meanwhile things got worse in the cockpit, they lost conscience due to smoke inhalation and the autopilot kept it’s programmed course, passed low near Langkawi, Pulau Perak and all the Malacca Strait as reported by the radar, and went in the direction of the Indian Ocean.

Eye witness reports from Kudahuvadhoo of a low passing plane in the morning have been dismissed on the basis that no radar has recorded any unusual traffic, but maybe it’s because the plane was flying too low. And as we know, eyewitness reports are always taken with a grain of salt whenever there is an air incident.

I, for one, think that the airplane is somewhere not very far from Kudahuvadhoo in the Maldives taking into account that it flew at low altitude with lots of drag, it would be in the very limit of the 777 range at such altitude. If we cross a straight line from the point the transponder stopped transmitting to Kudahuvadhoo all this assumptions make some logic, they flew very near Langkawi, and crossed the Mallaca Strait. Also this has some consistency with the Inmarsat data.

[LegallyBlonde]

Whatever 'we' know is miniscule - investigators aren't going to throw all their cards on the table. Still probably enough to enable professionals to predict how, if not who.

This disappearance is still most likely to be due to a criminal offence. Any evidence needs to be preserved, not concealed or destroyed.

However, the public treatment of these grieving families is disgraceful and inexcusable.

[despegue]

Gentlemen,

I personally and I am sure lots of other experienced flight crew update secondary flight plans on a regular basis with turns towards waypoints for the closest suitable diversion field.
There is nothing abnormal about this, it is called AIRMANSHIP.

Alright goodnight, is a STANDARD goodbye greeting at handover. NOWHERE is it mentioned that the frequency was omitted in the readback.

Greetings,

Despegue, an ACTUAL Airline Captain.

[SLFplatine]

Quote:
The meaningful question in the absence of data is "what are the odds of getting five heads in a row?" or in this case the question I asked about both failing in a short time span.

These are classed as random events; if, under a given set of circumstances the probability of each one failing is X, the probability of both failing is X provided there is no interdependency, i.e that the probability of failure of either is not affected by the failure of the other.

[GlobalNav]

Makes sense for a rational pilot. But didn't have time? He didn't need 7+ hours to get there.

Wasn't this area heavily searched once the SAR teams went west?

[SteveZRH]

There seem to be several statements about odds here and there in this thread. So let me ask (as an SLF) a question to someone who knows the inner working of a 777:

What are the odds that a sudden event is going to make every form of communication impossible (or not a priority), disable ACARS, and at some point, incapacitate pilots (and the rest of the crew, and the passengers), but STILL the autopilot is going to keep the whole plane on a fixed course across the Indian Ocean until running out of fuel?

Common sense suggests that at some point things are going to escalate even further and A/P is going to be switched off.

[glendalegoon]

despegue

good for you.


I wish every real airline pilot would simply say:

A 777 is missing. Beyond that we really know and I MEAN KNOW, anything else.

I haven't heard the full ATC tape, have you?

I haven't actually seen or talked with the radar operators at military radar sites, have you?

[MPN11]

indeed, and the last 2 'pings' on the same arc some 7-8 hours after IGARI seem to eliminate innumerable other options which 'seem' to make more sense in some scenarios.

I really hope these 'pings' aren't a red herring.

[Finn47]

Langkawi was not even the closest airport at the time when the aircraft turned back. Kota Bharu (WMKC) and Kuala Terengganu (WMKN) would have been some 200 km closer. Problem is, all of these 3 airports close at or before midnight local time, according to Malaysian AIP. The logical choice would be Penang, about the same distance as Langkawi, and open 24/7.

[henra]

I wish every real airline pilot would simply say:

A 777 is missing. Beyond that we really know and I MEAN KNOW, anything else.

I haven't heard the full ATC tape, have you?

I haven't actually seen or talked with the radar operators at military radar sites, have you?



Where is the bloody +1 or 'I Like' Button when you Need it!

There are People here proclaiming rumours as 'Knowledge'.
Guys, some of you are too easy to fool.
Even the 'official' Statements are often contradictory, revised or modified the other day.
Then some purported comments from sources left and right field from the US and China again sometimes contradicting each other.

I would consider none of this as 'Knowledge' at all. In my daily life I would take this quality of Information with more than a Grain of Salt. So do I in this case.
Looks like mixture of politics, bits of Information with unclear source and history and conclusions based on these data.

Let's simply hope someone happens to stumble across wreckage soon before it will become impossible to backtrack it - assuming it's in the Sea (which I tend to consider more likely than not finding a 300t Airliner over land in more than a week).

[D.S.]

Because there have been a couple mentions/questions of time, and because of a couple slight adjustments have been made, I want to again present the Timeline for easy reference...

What we know* timeline
(*or at least have a separate "unidentified official" verification on from a reputable source)

- 1:07 - ACARS last transmission (thru VHF) which apparently includes notation of a WP change having been entered into system since last scheduled report at 12:37
- 1:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite?)
- 1:19 - 'Alright, Good Night' at handover (supposedly by co-pilot)
- 1:22 - Transponder goes off
(note: those previous two might be reversed, we have multiple sources seemingly confirming both possibilities. One happened at 1:19, one at 1:22 though. I'm putting them in this order mainly because...)
- 1:22 - Plane goes out of range/black from Thailand Radar (likely from the transponder going black and not the plane going out of range)
- 1:28 - Unidentified plane shows up on Thailand Radar roughly off the Kota Bharu, Malaysia coast (at Malaysia/Thailand border) and this apparently shows plane crossing the Peninsula (without going over Thailand land) to the Straights of Malacca (unknown endtime for this path)
- somewhere between 1:15-1:30 - Vietnam sees plane turn around.
(note: they have not told us a specific time of turn or if they know this because of a Military or ATC radar hit, but they told Malaysia they 'watched plane turn around' sometime shortly after contact was lost)
- roughly 1:30-forward, Vietnam is "frantically" trying to contact the plane
- 1:37 - ACARS misses scheduled transmission
- 1:30-1:45 - at minimum 11 eye witness reports from around and past the Kota Bharu, Malaysia/Thailand border areas (including one saying 'plane descending fast' like one of the later radar hits indicates)
- 2:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- between 1:30-2:40 - Malaysian Military and Civilian radar picks up an "unidentified" plane flying over peninsula (Daud says "this was corroborated by civilian radar" in the March 9th press conference). Those include a couple radar WP hits we have specifically been told about* (and who knows how many that haven't been provided/leaked):
... VAMPI
... GIVAL
... IGREX
(note: we are not sure of the timing of the radar hits, and there is very contradictory evidence here. The most recent seemingly-official time is 2:15 for the last hit. Which hit that was, we don't know for sure)
- post 2:15/or/2:40 apparent absolute complete blackout of plane (except...)
- 3:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 4:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 5:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 6:11 - IINMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 7:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite) near 40 Degree line
- 7:24 - Statement released by Malaysian Officials saying contact lost at 2:40 and SAR efforts are underway
- 8:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite) (thru Satellite) on 40 Degree line

*those way-points on map
http://mothership.sg/v2/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/mh370-diverted-path.jpg

(Note on map: the Thailand radar data indicates a straight path from IGARI to VAMPI is not possible ("plane never over Thiland,") so there are more unknown/unreleased turns in there somewhere. Please do not read that map as a 'straight flight' from WP to WP; it was not a straight path over the peninsula, in the very least)

............................................................ ......................................
Anyone have any other times to add and/or corrections? Any details you think should be included? Would like to keep this as updated and accurate as possible for all, and any input is welcome! (just, also want to keep it to things cross verified, so please keep that in mind during suggestions - that is why things like the possible post-1:30 JapanBoundFlight/MH88 call is not included here)

[atlast]

If the Airplane took off at 1241am, maybe at 107am the PNF needed to relay a departure message to company and used the Center radio taking it out of VHF DATA? Maybe he never put it back to VHF DATA, the EICAS would show VHF DATA message of course but no ACARS. Not sure what comms set up MH have. Can someone verify? Is HF DATA installed on COMM 1 or 2. They may not have been set either. Is SATCOM installed? What DMI's/MEL's did the airplane carry? Just saying, there are other ways ACARS could be turned off inadvertently.

[Airbubba]

The logical choice would be Penang, about the same distance as Langkawi, and open 24/7.

And, if you were avoiding KUL due to terrain in the area, there would be no reason to choose PEN, it has hills around as well.

Why worry about the airport being open if its an emergency? Well, for one, you would have a crash crew on duty. And KLIA would have a lot more equipment than Penang (even though PEN handles pax B-744's).

[Hunter58]

The waypoints have not been confirmed. They have been 'leaked' but we have no idea by what source and with what reliability.

[FE Hoppy]

There are a few summaries of "Fact" on here.

This is mine
TO ("standard fuel load")................00:41(MAS)
TOC (FL350)....................................01:02(FR24)
ACARS data ....................................01:07(MAS)
Last Comms....................................01:19 (Sub)
Last SSR Position IGARI....................01:21 (Sub) 01:22 (Thai)
Opposite track.................................01:28 (Thai) (no time MAS)
Last PSR Position@GIVAL ->IGREX.....02:15(MAF) 02:40(Sub first report)
Last handshake................................08:11 (Inmarsat)


That's pretty much all we know and some of that isn't very clear.

[porterhouse]

The waypoints have not been confirmed.
If it suits your agenda you may believe whatever you want.

[Lonewolf_50]

Airbubba, something to chew on in the old "what would you do if _____?" ready room discussion.

From the IGARI waypoint, what point could they get to and land within about 15 minutes?

I recall a "rule of thumb" (which I have seen discussed here on PPRuNe regarding in flight fire scenarios) that if you don't get the fire out / aircraft on the ground in about fifteen minutes, the chances of it all ending in tears increases dramatically.

IF fire is what's happening, a location he can get to in 15 minutes strikes mes as the first target for a Captain of that experience level.

Complications include:
It's now a non-moonlit night
Flying a heavy with a substantial fuel load still on board
Few airports open at night.
Crash crew potentially available

Further this thought:

IF fire, and IF ALSO successful fire put out (hooray for the crew!) Captain still wants to land soon, but as fire is no longer burning more time available and thus more landing options.

[dmba]

For any fact being listed, please link to the official source. Otherwise you going to breathe life in to the mess that currently exists. ACARS has simply not been confirmed as being turned off at 1:07. 'At least 12 minutes' does not mean 12 minutes...

[FE Hoppy]

@Lonewolf.

The 15 minutes comes the iso standard for "Fireproof". Someone somewhere at sometime read that "Fireproof" as used in CS25 means withstand 1100°C for 15 minutes and made the rest up from there.

[oldoberon]

BBC 24hr news (sky 503) tickertape says

"satellite signal can only come from a moving plane - BBC has learned" no source given

[Alchad]

On the BBC 24 hours news programme tonight, the transport correspondent (I think) was making a big point -"BBC has just learnt etc" that the last ping had to have come from a moving aircraft and not a stationary one.

Doesn't seem right from what I've read on here, thought it just needed power, but reporting it in case it makes more sense to anyone else.

[flown-it]

[QUOTE I recall a "rule of thumb" (which I have seen discussed here on PPRuNe regarding in flight fire scenarios) that if you don't get the fire out / aircraft on the ground in about fifteen minutes, the chances of it all ending in tears increases dramatically. ]

I recall 12 to 18 minutes and that's the time frame I give in my sim sessions.
VMO/MMO to around 10 miles and do the approach in LNAV/VNAV particularly if your plane doesn't auto load the ILS. WHatever it takes to get lined up and below the clouds.

[md80fanatic]

Just as a point of reference, I managed a basic motion stabilization of the video of the 767 ditching off the Comoros Islands in the early 90's. This is what happens when a 767 is set down softly into medium surf. Port wing/engine ripped away cleanly and the resulting roll over to the now wingless side forces the starboard wing to break just outboard of the engine pylon. The sailboat image posted earlier of an average day in the waters where MH370 is being searched would probably end much worse than this.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6xodugyc5du3i9x/ditching_normalspeed.mp4

[awblain]

It's possible that the BBC might have learned that there is Doppler information available from the spectrum of the ping signal, which is perhaps possible. *

Then again, on their "what we known" page BBC News - Missing Malaysia plane: What we know (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26503141) their 777s appear to be -300s with 6 doors.

* How big an effect?

It's small - on the 40 degree arc, flying towards the satellite at 200m/s - only of order 1 part in 2 million, so it's not likely to be of any use.

[Tomescu]

Apologies if it was posted before, I couldn't find it. It amazes me the fact that nobody on TV and other mass-media channels did not mention anything about the Heading Selector knob from the MCP. All the TV "specialists" are talking about some " pre-programmed" waypoints. I speculate it would be a lot faster and perhaps more convenient to disengage the LNAV and change the direction using the Heading Selector instead of reprogramming the flight path on the CDU.

[deadheader]

@DS, thanks for keeping the timeline updated & re-posting... evidently many posters ignore scores of previous posts entirely & present the same ol' flawed scenarios to feed their own denial & bias. Some of them are "pilots" too! Funny old world.


If anyone bothers to read this before posting yet another smoke filled cockpit electrical fire depressurisation hypoxia type lazy amateur hour version of events, please, for the sake of our collective sanity, please first answer one very simple question:


Why did someone in the cockpit enter a new waypoint into the FMS but subsequently fail to mention this during their conversation with ATC?!?!?

[Lonewolf_50]

@Pace:
Why on earth would a hijacker wanting to route somewhere want to bother loading a route or flying waypoints?
One reason: to avoid try and avoid detection until closer to intended destination. Heading selector seems an easier way, though.
I also wonder how deep the seas are in the areas being searched?

The area ~ 2000 miles west from Australia? Thousands of feet deep, most of it looked to be past the 1000 fathom curve when I consulted an old atlas last night. This pic may help (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Indian_Ocean_bathymetry_srtm.png). This has a bit more detail (http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/41/1641-004-7FB9B588.jpg).

@ FE Hoppy. :ok: Thanks, my previous response was binned.

[Gamebeater]

Why did someone in the cockpit enter a new waypoint into the FMS but subsequently fail to mention this during their conversation with ATC?!?!?



Where is the evidence of waypoint entry or even prior waypoint entry? The premise is off. Even the Malaysian pressers have walked that back.

[Jilted]

Why did someone in the cockpit enter a new waypoint into the FMS but subsequently fail to mention this during their conversation with ATC?!?!?
There is absolutely no evidence that a new waypoint was entered other than journalist speculation.

[Pace]

One reason: to avoid try and avoid detection until closer to intended destination.

Lonewolf

I would have thought the very opposite as an aircraft which had lost radio and transponder identification the first obvious place to look would be along set airways?

[TDK mk2]

How about a massive electrical failure caused by electromagnetic radiation from an external source. Electrical systems rendered inoperative. Engines continue to run as fadecs shielded and supplied by permanent magnet alternators. FBW Flight controls out but aircraft could be turned with rudder deflection, is that physically connected to the pedals on the 777? But with no way to reduce thrust and cabin alt rising crew would then have had to don masks hampering communication, or may have become hypoxic. So in darkness with no roll or pitch control, no way to reduce thrust, and possibly impaired judgement perhaps they could have ended up in the water south west of Australia 7 hours later when the fuel ran out.

[Zorin_75]

Pprune is a RUMOUR network meaning we can all speculate as there is little to go on. Bull:mad:. There's discussing rumours and there's making them up out of thin air. Big difference.

[oldoberon]

It's possible that the BBC might have learned that there is Doppler information available from the spectrum of the ping signal, which is perhaps possible.

Then again, on their "what we known" page BBC News - Missing Malaysia plane: What we know (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26503141) their 777s appear to be -300s with 6 doors.

if they are talking about the theory of pinging I agree with the comments of rubbish, however I like your thinking, they have been told it but don't realise why

[Lonewolf_50]

I would have thought the very opposite as an aircraft which had lost radio and transponder identification the first obvious place to look would be along set airways?
Fair point. Guessing the motives of persons unknown is a tricky business. :cool:

[ZOOKER]

Although I appreciate it has been dismissed, does anyone know the location and types of PSR/SSR covering IVAO? Interestingly, the MSA at VRMT is 1500'.

[ExSp33db1rd]

If it exhausted fuel and ditched in Southern Indian Ocean . How come no ELT Signal.

It sank. .....

[mercurydancer]

TDK

You posted
"How about a massive electrical failure caused by electromagnetic radiation from an external source. "

That means an EMP. That cannot be generated so that only one single aircraft was disabled. It would have been widespread and many aircraft, ships and almost anything that had electronic components would have had fried circuits. Its simply not possible.

[cribbagepeg]

doppler would be proportional to the speed of approach or departure by the craft relative to the bird's position. Given the height of the bird, and the very small angle subtended by the beam relative to that height, doppler will be very small, and probably with very high error extents. Velocity times sine of the angle from perpendicular @ beam center to the craft. Doppler might be unmeasurably small, relative to frequency accuracy at bird and craft.

[Hunter58]

The transponder was deselected, -not abruptly de-powered.
The ACARS was logged out of, which takes a number of rarely used menu selections to achieve, -it was not abruptly de-powered.

Please explain how these devices were smoothly shutdown, (with appropriate ACARS reporting) by a cb tripping or a wire loom short circuiting?

Malaysian spokeman at press confirmed these devices were de-selected.
Heli-phile

I question the wisdom of the spokesperson. How do you know the transponder was de-selected? Because if does not reply to a request is not a valid answer. That just means that for whatever reason the transponder does not respond.

How do we know ACARS was logged out? Same as with the transponder.

If the malaysian spokesperson can tell me HOW he KNOWS that these devices were deliberately stopped from transmitting, then I may believe his statement. The statements I remember were carefully worded and left room for uncertainty.

[Pontius Navigator]

Lonewolf

I would have thought the very opposite as an aircraft which had lost radio and transponder identification the first obvious place to look would be along set airways?
Did it?

I don't know the airway structure here but an early map showed a possible route passing through or near a number of reporting points. It was said, I believe that these did not represent an airway but a flight along the FIR boundary.

I am guessing that the RPs were on the boundary for traffic crossing the boundary not flying along it.

If one wants to confuse then flight along an FIR boundary is a good way of doing it as authorities might assume the aircraft was in contact with the opposite agency.

[Lost in Saigon]

Why did someone in the cockpit enter a new waypoint into the FMS but subsequently fail to mention this during their conversation with ATC?!?!?

There is absolutely no evidence that a new waypoint was entered other than journalist speculation.


I just saw on the television news that the Malaysian Authorities are saying that they believe the waypoints must have been pre-programmed because the turn observed on radar was very gradual and looked like it must have been done using the FMC and A/P.

If that's what they are suggesting then this investigation has been doomed from the very beginning.

[Clear_Prop]

Hunter58 I completely agree with you. It seems people are far too eager to believe any old BS they hear about this incident. So far all we actually know is that an aircraft has gone missing. That's actually it.

One can also accept the radio message, since it was on a public channel, which adds to the known situation that "an aircraft has gone missing following a seemingly normal handover".

Everything else is just niff-naff until the remains are found and some forensic analysis can begin. Even the "pings".

[Mises]

@Jilted
There is absolutely no evidence that a new waypoint was entered other than journalist speculation.
That hasn't stopped Fox and other mainstream media from stating it as a fact for 2 days.

Meanwhile, the Malaysian officials seem to be backing away from it, saying they've moved on to more relevant stuff... sweeping the pilots under the bus, as MSM asserts that they are almost certainly responsible.

It's a disgrace, from the media and the authorities.

I wouldn't mind betting that these satellite paths are bogus too. If they'd produced circles for various pings, it might be believable.

FWIW: I've seen no retraction by FOX after their breaking news / scoop about the plane heading west at the time of last communication was put in the bin at the presser.

[Interested_Party]

To clarify incorrect information that leads to the wrong scenarios and assumptions:
- I have asked pilot friends and between us we have over 100,000 commercial hours. None of us know how to turn the Acars off in the flight deck. Cannot be done.
- the Acars does report events such as off and on blocks but not any flight plan info. CPDLC does but that is different. Singapore has CPDLC connections KL and Vietnam do not so they would not be logged on and so no one can know what was programed into their FMC flight plan. No one has any information as to how the aircraft was operated as the aircraft does not report any to the ground unless through CPDLC or the transponder. Ignore "BBC or CNN has learned" as the only way the conduct of the flight will be understood will be through finding the black box data.

I believe most probable is the theory of smoke and a turn back and all overcome or exploding oxygen bottles (google Qantas exploding oxygen bottles and images). If this occurred then the pilots may have had time to action a return but also become unconscious and the plane flies on.

[Clear_Prop]

That hasn't stopped Fox and other mainstream media from stating it as a fact for 2 days.

Nothing ever does.

[D.S.]

Jilted (http://www.pprune.org/members/427955-jilted) said

There is absolutely no evidence that a new waypoint was entered other than journalist speculation.

They have been told by "officials" the WP change was included in the last ACARS transmission.

Other news organizations do not re-report the same afterwards unless they themselves could find an offical to confirm it to them (or the report runs with something like "BBC reports, we can not confirm" thereby eliminating the possibility the re-reporting organization can ever be sued out of existence)

You can only "report" what the experts involved tell you; that is what they are trying to do. Do not confuse "report" and "commentate" though, as those are two drastically different things

[Token Bird]

@Pontius Navigator

I don't know the airway structure here but an early map showed a possible route passing through or near a number of reporting points. It was said, I believe that these did not represent an airway but a flight along the FIR boundary.

As far as I can tell there is no single airway joining up IGARI and VAMPI. The aircraft would have to fly IGARI-VKB-VPB-GUNIP-VAMPI. 4 separate airways!

Then from VAMPI to GIVAL, you can only fly DCT. If hugging the edge of the FIRs was the aim, it would make much more sense to fly VPB-GIVAL, which are connected by an airway, rather than go via GUNIP and VAMPI which is a dogleg!

[D.S.]

Pontius Navigator,

I am not saying these are fir lines, as they do not match said lines from what people can tell.

But they indicate something, obviously, as they are clearly marked on this map. (I will search my history later and see if I can find the article I first grabbed the image from - although, I know for a fact it was in another language so not sure how helpful it will be even if I do manage to locate the article)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BirwabjCIAACtVF.png:large

[Feathered]

Quote:
That hasn't stopped Fox and other mainstream media from stating it as a fact for 2 days.
Nothing ever does.

Try watching CNN, featuring our old friend Scary Mary Schiavo and endless nonsensical speculation. I think they may change their name to the missing airliner channel.

Their latest tidbit is that the turn meant there was a waypoint entered into the FMS because some pilot (Robert Goyer) says so. "The almost certain explanation would be that these waypoints were programmed into the flight management system of the 777-200, a task that would have been beyond the abilities of anyone but a professional pilot."

I guess Mr. Goyer has no respect for the folks who actually build and program the FMS. Does he think the engineers are not smart enough to program a waypoint into an FMS, even if they are not pilots? Or anyone else who works with, simulates, or repairs avionics....

This is what is passing for "news." This is CNN. I don't mean to rag on just CNN, because nearly all of the major outlets worldwide are doing similar.

Why is aviation reporting so challenging for the media?

[WeeJeem]

Jilted (http://www.pprune.org/members/427955-jilted) said

There is absolutely no evidence that a new waypoint was entered other than journalist speculation.

They have been told by "officials" the WP change was included in the last ACARS transmission.

Other news organizations do not re-report the same afterwards unless they themselves could find an offical to confirm it to them (or the report runs with something like "BBC reports, we can not confirm" thereby eliminating the possibility the re-reporting organization can ever be sued out of existence)

You can only "report" what the experts involved tell you; that is what they are trying to do. Do not confuse "report" and "commentate" though, as those are two drastically different things


ROFPML

Despite the (presumably?) unintended irony from the poster, it's sad days for aviation and PPRUNE when this is the "quality" of post that one can and does expect.

Many thanks to the tenacious, informed folk with the patience of Job who keep trying to keep this thread somewhere in the correct universe.

[fg32]

For anyone wishing to explore exactly where the inmarsat "arcs" are located.
This is a detailed description of how to use Google Earth to do it.
No speculation, no hypotheses. Just instructions, and a table I have calculated to take into account the distance of the satellite.
____________________________________________________________ _

Detailed Instructions:

We can't know how accurate the 40 degree ring is. Its probably been rounded, measurement accuracy is uncertain, final position of MH370 may be an uncertain distance away.

But it seems to be the solidest thing we have, and the Aussies seem to believe in it, as their new search area is bang on.
Using Google Earth, you too can explore exactly where such Inmarsat "arcs" go, using the "ruler" in "tools" at the top.

Proceed thus:
Search for the point directly below the IOR satellite, by entering "0N 64E"
Now open the little ruler window. Do this by finding "Tools" at the very top, and clicking "Ruler"'
In the little ruler window, choose "Line" at the top, and set units to "nautical miles"
Go back to the map…you'll see a bigger squarish cursor.
Click on the point 0N 64E, which should be in the middle, this sets the start of the ruler line.
Now zoom out (mouse wheel) to see up to (say) asia. Drag the cursor (say) North, making a line. Make it 2600nm long. This point is on the 40 degree arc.
You can still zoom and scroll the map normally, the ruler line will stick to your cursor.
Now feel free to explore where the line ends, keeping its length about 2600nm long.

And of course you can drag down south to explore the southern arc. Just remember 2600 nautical miles.

Clicking will freeze the line, so you can scroll about etc, but it can still be picked up and moved more by clicking its end point (a hand appears). The "save" button will make the line permanent (and unchangeable). Any other click deletes it. After saving, you can draw another line.

Now you can estimate for yourself how far MH370 might have deviated away from the given final 40deg ping arc, and factor in your own uncertainty, by increasing or decreasing the 2600 value..

You could even explore your theories of likely distance travelled, by doing a similar thing from whatever start point you like, using "path" instead of "line. This will not delete your previous line to the arc.

So why 2600 nautical miles? Not 3000, as another poster suggested?
I have corrected for the distance to the satellite, instead of assuming it infinitely high.
Here is a table of distances for other arcs.

Angle Distance (nm)
10 4284
20 3708
30 3147
35 2871
39 2653
40 2599
41 2545
45 2330
50 2064
60 1539
70 1021
80 509

PM me if you would like to check the formula I have derived. My qualifications to do so include both science and maths degrees - though in fact schoolboy trig is all that is required.

All this does assume that the satellite is truly stationary above the earth. Orbital variations are I think unlikely to introduce an error of more than 60 nautical miles.

[Soursop]

Hi Feathered- Indeed, why is accurately reporting about ANYTHING so challenging for the media? In this case it is just more noticeable because actual pilots will immediately pick up on the BS... but I am sure we are served just as many lazy, poorly researched reports about Crimea, the Pistorius trial, or any other issue!

[flown-it]

[QUOTE][/To clarify incorrect information that leads to the wrong scenarios and assumptions:
- I have asked pilot friends and between us we have over 100,000 commercial hours. None of us know how to turn the Acars off in the flight deck. Cannot be done.
- the Acars does report events such as off and on blocks but not any flight plan info. CPDLC does but that is different. Singapore has CPDLC connections KL and Vietnam do not so they would not be logged on and so no one can know what was programed into their FMC flight plan. No one has any information as to how the aircraft was operated as the aircraft does not report any to the ground unless through CPDLC or the transponder. Ignore "BBC or CNN has learned" as the only way the conduct of the flight will be understood will be through finding the black box data.
[QUOTE]

100,000 hours and you post that?:ugh:

Controller pilot data link communication= CPDLC
That is the way ATC TALKS to aircraft via satellite
AUtomatic Dependent Surveillance = ADS and is the way ATC tracks a plane. Within VHF LOS it is ADC-b as I explained about 300 pages ago
ADS-C is used in conjunction with CPDLC when out of VHF range

[Intelshare]

Does anyone know what size the 'large metal container', no doubt filled with early mangosteens, is likely to be, in this quote from the Telegraph?

"One of the positions on the plane that would be filled with a large metal cargo container is unaccounted for on the manifest.."

@DS if you get any information about the schedule for loading cargo into the aircraft, would you be so kind as to add it to your timeline of events?

[deadheader]

Where is the evidence of waypoint entry or even prior waypoint entry? The premise is off. Even the Malaysian pressers have walked that back.


There is absolutely no evidence that a new waypoint was entered other than journalist speculation.


Careful, you're both on the verge of appearing to selectively filter information in the public domain to suit your own purpose/bias/beliefs. This isn't a witch-hunt or religious gathering. Science only please fellas...

Start here, work backwards: https://www.google.com/#q=MH370+waypoint+fms+acars


Original source = members of the investigation team, corroborated by US officials. The MH presser "walkback" was in response to a journo whom had misunderstood "commanded left turn into FMS before last comms" to mean "commanded left turn before last comms", two VERY different prospects to which the MH rep correctly responded "there was no left turn prior to last comms", which certain clueless journos then reported as a backtrack on original [actual] statement!!!


For those paying attention, from several days ago:
"ACARS report at 01:07 included unplanned course update with more than one new waypoint entered"

Which is precisely why the language from all authorities around the world immediately shifted to include phrases like:

"deliberate act"
"human intervention"
"act of piracy"
"it is conclusive"
"hijacking or terrorism"


It's all out there, man, if you're not wearing blinkers or bright pink sunnies that is...

[Token Bird]

Link to a simple map showing FIR boundaries in that region, if anyone is interested: http://www.swld.com.au/images/air_asia_FIR.jpg

Not a straight line boundary between Thai and Malaysian airspace.

[lakedude]

Link to Suninmyeyes post in this thread:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-303.html#post8387369


First off, thanks for your excellent post (#6078 edit: This post number may have changed) @suninmyeyes. Long on facts, short on fantasy...just the way it should be.Suninmyeyes is a noteworthy individual. He (she?) has made some of the most insightful, meaningful and professional posts I've seen on this fourm.

Suninmyeyes came up with the most likely and best explanation early in the Asiana thread. Major cudos to Sunimmyeyes once again!

One question, how many pings pings are there? I've seen tell of just a final ping being available but there are also reports that the last 2 pings are essentially similar. I know there was one per hour but did that data persist? How about that noise about the plane must be moving to have a ping? Surely they must mean powered up?

[JRM2010]

"Why is aviation reporting so challenging for the media?"

At last, a question on the thread I can help with.

Anybody who knows something in depth finds that the media treatment of their specialism usually falls somewhere between incomprehension and incompetence. It's not just aviation, although I suspect the more complex systems that are involved, the more the media are inclined to treat it as witchcraft.

[Jilted]

"ACARS report at 01:07 included unplanned course update with more than one new waypoint entered"
Citation from an official source please.

[auraflyer]

One "fact" that has not been mentioned much here is the (supposed) radio contact between MH 370 and another aircraft in which an MH 370 pilot (likely the FO) was reported to be "mumbling".

As reported (and the source seems to be MISSING MH370: Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-pilot-i-established-contact-with-plane-1.503464) on 9 March):

- the pilot was ahead of MH370
- they were asked by Vietnamese flight control to contact MH 370 just after 1.30am to ask its position, as the Vietnamese could not locate the aircraft
- they did so and established contact: "We managed to establish contact with MH370 just after 1.30am and asked them if they have transferred into Vietnamese airspace."
- but: "There were a lot of interference ... static ... but I heard mumbling from the other end. That was the last time we heard from them, as we lost the connection."
- "The voice on the other side could have been either Captain Zaharie (Ahmad Shah, 53,) or Fariq (Abdul Hamid, 27), but I was sure it was the copilot"
- "Following the silence, a repeat request was made by the Vietnamese authorities to try establishing contact with them."

Based on the timing, the reported destination (NRT), the statement that the aircraft was a 777 and was "far into Vietnamese airspace when he was asked to relay" and the fact that the pilot knew enough to recognise the voices on MH 370, the relevant flight would appear to be MAS 88, KUL-NRT, a 772, scheduled dep 23:35, which was near Da Nang at that time.

**If** this indeed occurred, it seems to me to be pretty important in working out causation as it would show:

- there was something wrong enough to cause incoherence and, it seems likely, no further subsequent contact;
- radio working, with Fariq speaking; but
- crucially: there is no attempt by MH 370 to hide itself (e.g. by simply not answering) and indeed there is action inconsistent with an attempt at stealth

The latter would be hard to reconcile with a rogue flight deck or intruder bent on stealth, unless it is the aftermath of a scenario similar to FedEx 705 with either: a rogue left able to fly stealthily and who does so, or no-one left able to continue flying.

So it would seem to be a major factor in pruning the probability tree to either (1) an accident with incomplete recovery due to incapacitation or (2) an intentional incident on the flight deck that left Fariq able to make that contact but then (a) left no-one able to aviate or (b) left someone aviate who was unable to or chose not to make contact.

So: what is the source and status of this "fact"? I haven't been able to find anything "official" (for what that's worth), but it seems unlikely that the NST would print something like that if it were complete fiction.

[xcitation]

@Tokenbird

Fascinating that the reported flight track appear to follow the FIR boundaries. Would be great to overlay the track on your FIR map. The U turn when a/c touched the Indonesian FIR could be consistent with evasion. This would make sense if pilot thought he might have a tail/intercept/monitored after his crossing of the peninsula. If there was a low altitude over the Peninsula and Straits it would also be consistent with radar evasion. I think we have to give evasion a high probability given the known/likely data points.

[Token Bird]

@ xcitation

I've created such a picture on my flight planning software but didn't want to put the picture up here because my software provider might not want me posting screenshots of their software on the internet.

[Pontius Navigator]

D.S. and TB, thank you.

[xcitation]

@auraflyer

Authorities hopefully have pulled the CVR from that flight that reported "mumbled contact". If not then it will have been overwritten, however a recording of the channel by a ground station might be available. Either way I am sure it has been analyzed in great detail as it would potentially be a very significant piece of evidence.