Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[CONSO]

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Likely in Steep Dive Before Crash - WSJ (http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-likely-in-steep-dive-before-crash-1478048584)

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Likely in Steep Dive Before Crash

Examination of wing flap debris shows it likely wasn’t extended when plane entered ocean



...As well as physical debris, the report drew on recent analysis by Australian defense scientists of burst frequency signals from Flight 370 to satellites which indicated the aircraft had been descending fast, likely in an automated series of swooping dives called fugoids.
“Additional analysis of the burst frequency offsets associated with the final satellite communications to and from the aircraft is consistent with the aircraft being in a high and increasing rate of descent at the time,” the report said....

[A30_737_AEWC]

Engineering analyses, as diligent and well founded with appropriate assumptions as they may be, will never explain the potential motives and actions of individuals unseen by the rest of us.

I don't believe that the ATSB analysis and investigation is likely to conclude along the lines of deliberate action by the pilot/s in control at the time of the incident to ditch the aircraft for other than emergency reasons. That sort of conclusion moves into potential criminal intent, which is a matter for police/coronial authorities to adjudicate upon.

The technical authorities, like the ATSB, is where the expert analysis investigation rules out other possible/reasonable reasons in the technical/operational realm.

So it seems the aircraft is not likely to have descended in a controlled manner as analysis/inspection of some of the flight control system components recovered do not support the 'controlled descent' hypothesis.

As disturbing as it sounds, I personally believe, and have for a long time, that the aircraft's descent was very rapid and very steep and it entered the water in that attitude and dove very deep. Only the 'flimsiest' of secondary and tertiary external structures would have been at risk of breaking off in that sort of instance, where the vehicle enters the water in the most 'streamlined' orientation possible. And this, I propose, is what we appear to have seen with the debris that's been recovered and the state/condition that it is in.

On a relatedasdie,, aerodynamics and fluid dynamics are two very closely related diciplines and the study and design of vehicles operating in those environments are very similar. In fact we treat the air that aircraft fly in very much like a fluid with similar properties and characteristics.

[D Bru]

The 2 Nov ATSB update provides a link to a very interesting complete overview by the Malaysian authorities of the 22 (sic!) items found so far, that are either confirmed to be from MH370 or under investigation.

Didn't know for instance that last August they found a vertical stabiliser panel on a Mozambique beach. One can clearly distinguish part of the red coloured Malaysian logo, which suggests its from somewhere midway up the vertical stabiliser.

http://www.mh370.gov.my/phocadownload/News/Summary%20of%20Debris%20Recovered%20-%2014Oct2016.pdf

P.S. Apologies for posting this as a new thread, as the main thread is closed

[Airbubba]

From the Associated Press:

MH370 Officials: Crash Site Could Be North of Search Area

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
DEC. 20, 2016, 12:30 A.M. E.S.T.

SYDNEY — For two years, a handful of ships have diligently combed a remote patch of the Indian Ocean west of Australia in a $160 million bid to find Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. On Tuesday, investigators made what was surely a painful admission: They have probably been looking in the wrong place.

The latest analysis by a team of international investigators concluded that the vanished Boeing 777 is highly unlikely to be in the current search zone and may instead be in a region farther to the north. But though crews are expected to finish their deep sea sonar hunt of the current search area next month, the possibility of extending the search to the north appeared doubtful, with Australia's transport minister suggesting the analysis wasn't specific enough to justify continuing the hunt.

More here: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/12/20/world/asia/ap-as-malaysia-missing-plane.html?_r=0

[p.j.m]

The latest analysis by a team of international investigators concluded that the vanished Boeing 777 is highly unlikely to be in the current search zone and may instead be in a region farther to the north.

so, what? don't tell me.

Where the "pings" were originally heard by the Chinese patrol boat Haixun 01?

[Bergerie1]

Perhaps this might help:-
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5772119/mh370_ocean_driftv29.pdf

[onetrack]

I find it incredible that, after nearly 3 years since the loss of MH370 - amid vast amounts of calculations, discussions and mapping - there has been a "revision" to a new potential location, further North along the 7th arc. :ugh:

For so much MH370 debris to turn up around Mauritius, this has to be the best indicator of a more Northerly crash location.

[PDR1]

It clearly shows the crash location is to the north of the areas searched to date.

Or perhaps to the south.

Or maybe to the east.

Of course it could easily be to the west as well...

[T28B]

For reference, the original MH370 thread is h (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html#post8358467)ere. Please, let's not rehash that whole thread in discussing search for (and the long-hoped-for finding of) that lost aircraft.

[mach2.6]

Completely agree, T28B. Before the first boat put oars in the water on this search, I said that the whole thing smelled like a boondoggle. The search area(s) was/were determined using some imprecise science and educated guesses, with more exact scientific methods and equipment used toward the final phase of each search "episode".

This is completely bassackwards. Logic says that you use precise, known, and reliable methods at the beginning (of a search process, logic process, problem solving process, whatever), and you "guess" or "reckon" toward the end of each process, having narrowed the field of possible outcomes.

FWIW, send everybody home for the holidays, and tell 'em not to come back. My respects to all the searchers and the families of the missing.

[Catapault]

Might be a good time to revisit the Curtin hydrophone noise. Which seem to suggest a point in the middle of the IO.

To me, the investigation discarded this noise too quickly and placed too much weight on the Inmarsat pings.

[The Ancient Geek]

Realistically, what is there to be gained from finding the wrechage this long after the crash ?
If the recorders can be recovered are they still likely to be readable ?

[EGPI10BR]

> If the recorders can be recovered are they still likely to be readable ?

If they were readable after whatever happened to them when the aircraft went down, they are likely to be readable now. The memory should still be intact even if the enclosures have been damaged by submersion in the deep ocean.

[HEMS driver]

The authorities have been using the tried and true SWAG method - Scientific Wild A$$ Guess.

[wheels_down]

The search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has come to an end with passengers’ families being informed that the effort to find the plane has been suspended.

Next of kin were told in an emailed statement on Tuesday that Australian authorities’ underwater search of 120,000 sq km in the southern Indian ocean had concluded without success.

The search had been ongoing for more than two years.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/17/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-called-off

What next I wonder? How many years or decades until technology is developed to find it?

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2016/12/31/will-boeing-china-take-mh370-search-2017/

[Airbubba]

Another milestone in the saga:

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370: underwater search called off

Wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 might never be found after suspension of underwater search

The search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has come to an end with passengers’ families being informed that the effort to find the plane has been suspended.

Next of kin were told in an emailed statement on Tuesday that Australian authorities’ underwater search of 120,000 sq km in the southern Indian ocean had concluded without success.

The search had been ongoing for more than two years.

The MH370 Tripartite Joint Communiqué seen by the Guardian was co-signed by the transport ministers of Malaysia, China and Australia, representing the three countries involved in the search. It was made public at 2pm Malaysia time.

“Today the last search vessel has left the underwater search area. Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has not been located in the 120,000 square-kilometre underwater search area in the southern Indian Ocean,” it read.

“Despite every effort using the best science available, cutting edge technology, as well as modelling and advice from highly skilled professionals who are the best in their field, unfortunately, the search has not been able to locate the aircraft.

“The decision to suspend the underwater search has not been taken lightly nor without sadness.”


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/17/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-called-off

The MH370 Tripartite Joint Communiqué:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/17/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-called-off#img-2

[Sikpilot]

Let google search for the plane while they map the earths oceans.

[unworry]

Let google search for the plane while they map the earths oceans.
meanwhile, on Google Earth

http://img.timeinc.net/time/photoessays/2009/google_earth/graveyard.jpg

But seriously, Google commented last year that the resolution they employ for scanning the deep ocean floor is insufficient to identify shipwrecks. One assumes that would likewise apply to airframe wreckage

[Harry Wayfarers]

Offer a billion dollar reward on a "no win, no fee" basis, that should even have people out in rowing boats with metal detectors trying to find the thing.

Seriously though, it's all very well having these search vessels out there but they get paid regardless if they find the thing or not thus it is likely that they may merely go through the motions ... Try offering a (very big) incentive for finding the thing whilst allowing them their own discretion of which area of ocean they believe it may be in.

[PDR1]

That's a fairly strong allegation to make against the crews and owners of the search vessels - do you have any evidence to back up the suggestion that they were "just going through the motions"?

FWIW my own view is that the wreckage is probably "undiscoverable" by virtue of being either in a steep valley on the sea bed or (more probably) under a few dozen feet of seabed ooze. This means that if it's *ever* discovered it will be either by accident or due to the development of a massively different and more powerful searching technology. We're looking for obbjects a few dozen feet across in several gazillion square miles of ocean bed using technologies that need to be within a few tens of feet of an object to see it. Do the maths - the probability of finding it by random searching is not zero, but it is damned *close* to zero.

€0.03 supplied,

PDR

[mustafagander]

At last it's finished. What a waste of Oz taxpayers' money.

[cattletruck]

Agree it was a complete waste of our money and we were only involved to give credit to the charade that followed.

[westhawk]

Once the ships have gone home, there will still be people reviewing stored sensor data for quite some time. The "search" will never really be "over" until the mystery is solved. Could some new clue be residing in existing data that will inspire a further sub-sea search? Or will some emergent sensor technology locate it in the future? Certainly possible, however unlikely it may appear at the moment.

The effort and resources put forth in the search effort since it went missing is nothing short of astounding in my view. It's sad that such an effort has not successfully located the remains to date. But that's how it stands and people will have to live with it until such time that more is known. That may or may not ever happen. Only time will tell. That's little comfort to victims families, but sometimes best efforts fail to achieve the desired result.

Time to get on with it.

[MATELO]

What a waste of Oz taxpayers' money.

Not for the relatives.

[PeetD]

What is the global aviation industry doing to enable real time tracking of all aircraft, with no override, so we don't lose another one? As SLF, I find it incredible that this is beyond their technical ability. If it's political, someone need to get off their behind and make a stand.

[paperHanger]

The great unwashed do not care that much. If anyone is going to "make a stand" it would need to be passengers, by voting with their backsides. No airline is going to run an advertising campaign with "Fly with us, we are fully tracked, no override, so when our nut job pilot flies you into a remote ocean, you relatives will be able to locate the wreckage" ... admittedly the running costs would be close to zero (in airplane terms) but there is no real reason to do it. Find MH370 would have been interesting to the industry to find out why the loon at the controls did what he did, but that's about all. As others have said, the technology for realtime upload of CVR data exists, that would be interesting too, but that isn't going to happen either.

[BuzzBox]

What is the global aviation industry doing to enable real time tracking of all aircraft, with no override, so we don't lose another one? As SLF, I find it incredible that this is beyond their technical ability. If it's political, someone need to get off their behind and make a stand.

It's happening PeetD, but like most things to do with aviation regulatory reform, it's not happening in a hurry. Autonomous Distress Tracking will be a requirement for new aircraft from 1 January 2021. Other tracking initiatives will be implemented before then.

http://www.sarsat.noaa.gov/BMW%202016_files/BMW%20Presentation%20GADSS%202016%20v2.pdf

[physicus]

Neither a waste of our taxes nor is it fair to suggest search parties that get paid regardless of the outcome aren't giving it their best shot. That's simply demagoguery at work.

[.Scott]

... Seriously though, it's all very well having these search vessels out there but they get paid regardless if they find the thing or not thus it is likely that they may merely go through the motions ... Try offering a (very big) incentive for finding the thing whilst allowing them their own discretion of which area of ocean they believe it may be in.
Basically, they were paid to image a large section of the Indian ocean seabed. So it is well documented that they did the job that they were tasked to do.

Responding to those who describe this as a complete waste of the money:

Of course, the Australians will likely find uses for that data. If the search is ever to be continued, a huge section of seabed has been eliminated. So it's not a complete waste.

[.Scott]

What is the global aviation industry doing to enable real time tracking of all aircraft, with no override, so we don't lose another one? As SLF, I find it incredible that this is beyond their technical ability. If it's political, someone need to get off their behind and make a stand.
Iridium satellite tracking devices | Blue Sky Network (http://blueskynetwork.com/devices/)

This weekends SpaceX launch put 10 upgraded Iridium satellites into orbit.
Global tracking based on the Iridiums is already offered by blueskynetwork.

[Bobman84]

It's interesting no-one has found the Varig 707 or Faucett 727 which crashed in the 70s & 90s. Both of those much, much closer to land than MH370 likely is.

It's a pity they didn't take the northern search area more seriously though given where the washed up debris was.

[.Scott]

One of the key presumptions in concluding that the crash site was in the 7th arc was that the aircraft continued on a straight autopilot course.

That presumption is now called into serious question. On the other hand, the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight.

One thing I noticed right away with the ping data is that those pings are consistent with a straight path - but far from perfectly consistent. And, of course, they are also consistent with many other paths.

[onetrack]

There was a recent article that stated that it was likely that Boeing would take up the MH370 search when the ATSB gave up. I have seen no confirmation from anyone in authority (or Boeing) that this would be the case.

Boeing rumored to take up MH370 search (http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/boeing-rumored-to-take-up-mh370-search)

I cannot understand why Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and David Mearns were not enticed into the search for MH370.
After all, Mearns found the "unfindable" 1941 shipwreck of HMAS Sydney, in 2008, around 130 miles SW of Carnarvon - and WHOI played a substantial part in helping to locate AF447.
The wreck of HMAS Sydney was found at a depth exceeding 8000 feet, and it was found within a relatively short time after Mearns commenced his search. However, Mearns did have the benefit of warship contact records and a relatively small search area.

[DaveReidUK]

One of the key presumptions in concluding that the crash site was in the 7th arc was that the aircraft continued on a straight autopilot course.

That presumption is now called into serious question. On the other hand, the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight.

The two theories aren't mutually exclusive.

Once the engines quit, the question of whether or not the aircraft was flying on autopilot up to that point becomes academic.

[A0283]

What I did not understand (from early on) and still do not understand is what appears to be a 'single' line of reasoning and search.

A number of alternative approaches and scenario's have been proposed. At least one of those scenario's suggested a very limited search area and was presented to the ATSB and Malaysian investigations. An area in the southern Indian Ocean proposed at a time when the official search was still combing the Andaman to Perth route. As far as I know that limited scenario is still possible with the old and new drift analysis and the various confirmed finds.

Why a search for 2 years over a huge area without even talking about or checking such relatively easy check&reject alternatives.

These Fugro guys and others on board have been operating in pretty risky environment for a long time. I only have admiration for them.

[Chris Scott]

Quote from .Scott:
"...the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight."
Quote from DaveReidUK:
"Once the engines quit, the question of whether or not the aircraft was flying on autopilot up to that point becomes academic."

I would go further than Dave. Any suggestion of a qualified and current B777 pilot setting the aircraft down in one piece in the Southern Indian Ocean, even if all systems were available, and the aircraft subsequently sinking intact would also lack credibility. As previously commented, this was not the River Hudson. There would be debris, regardless of the circumstances of the impact, and some pieces would float better and for longer than others.

Following the discovery of a piece of flaperon on the island of Reunion, the subsequent arrival of debris on the eastern coasts of Africa and/or Madagascar was predicted on the MH370 thread. The problem was how to locate and identify the larger pieces before they were put to good use by those residing on those shores.

[Three Lima Charlie]

Northwest Flight 2501, June 23, 1950 in Lake Michigan has never been found.

http://archive.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/volunteers-try-to-solve-mystery-of-1950-plane-crash-in-lake-michigan-b99222243z1-249370671.html

[peekay4]

Why a search for 2 years over a huge area without even talking about or checking such relatively easy check&reject alternatives.

Unfortunately when there's limited resources, then every day spent checking "some other area" will necessarily take away from time checking within the "most probable area".

So the best strategy is to maximize your resources by searching areas according to the best probabilities.

[The Ancient Geek]

It will probably show up eventually, Star Dust was found over 60 years after vanishing.

[Chris Scott]

"Star Dust was found over 60 years after vanishing."

Quite. Emerging from a glacier...

[andrasz]

I suspect that the decision to call the search off was likely influenced by a common understanding of the parties to investigation that the loss of the aircraft was due to "willful human inputs" as already indicated in the preliminary report. Accepting this scenario, it is highly unlikely that the FDR/CVR would reveal anything that is not already known, both can easily be stopped by pulling a CB, and likely were just like the transponder. I would assume that were there any scenarios that would indicate any technical malfunction (like AF447) , there would be a much greater incentive to find the wreck whatever it takes.

[grizzled]

I think andrasz has hit the nail on the head. And whether or not Boeing also believes the loss was due to willful human action (as oppposed to any technical malfunction or pilot error, or combination of those) they are unlikely to spend large amounts of their own money to continue searching.

[lomapaseo]

I think andrasz has hit the nail on the head. And whether or not Boeing also believes the loss was due to willful human action (as oppposed to any technical malfunction or pilot error, or combination of those) they are unlikely to spend large amounts of their own money to continue searching.

Another view

Similar to the China Air B747 freighter whose search for the critical pieces in the ocean dragged on and off. Some of us felt not enough effort was being expended by governments . In the end we were damn unhappy when the El Al freighter crashed before the China Air one got sorted out. We vowed never again !!!

Now I'm not being critical of the MH370 search to date but there is this knawing feeling that mysteries are not good for the industry and if we have another it will have much larger repercussions.

[.Scott]

Quote from .Scott:
"...the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight."
Quote from DaveReidUK:
"Once the engines quit, the question of whether or not the aircraft was flying on autopilot up to that point becomes academic."

I would go further than Dave. Any suggestion of a qualified and current B777 pilot setting the aircraft down in one piece in the Southern Indian Ocean, even if all systems were available, and the aircraft subsequently sinking intact would also lack credibility. As previously commented, this was not the River Hudson. There would be debris, regardless of the circumstances of the impact, and some pieces would float better and for longer than others.

Following the discovery of a piece of flaperon on the island of Reunion, the subsequent arrival of debris on the eastern coasts of Africa and/or Madagascar was predicted on the MH370 thread. The problem was how to locate and identify the larger pieces before they were put to good use by those residing on those shores.
I wasn't suggesting any specific mechanism for the plane flying other than straight and level. Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.
From what I've read, they are quite certain that at the end of the flight, there was a high-speed impact with the ocean.

[PDR1]

I wasn't suggesting any specific mechanism for the plane flying other than straight and level. Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.
From what I've read, they are quite certain that at the end of the flight, there was a high-speed impact with the ocean.

Is the S&L theory incompatible with a high-speed impact?

Note that we can't be certain that the aeroplane *insn't* in the area predicted by the S&L theory, because large parts of that area have a sea bed comprised of a layer of ooze that is up to tens of metres thick. Wreckacge setting on that would disappear below the surface and become hidden from view within a few days.

PDR

[Chronus]

The all too important question is what have we learned from this costly disaster. I would suggest, the salutary lesson in this instance is the need for an expedient means of at least finding it`s wreckage, even if we cannot find why it crashed. Has anything been done about that.

[MG23]

FWIW my own view is that the wreckage is probably "undiscoverable" by virtue of being either in a steep valley on the sea bed or (more probably) under a few dozen feet of seabed ooze.That doesn't seem consistent with the wrecks and other debris found on the seabed during the search. As far as I remember, they used an AUV to check the areas the ship's sonar couldn't see into, and the shipwreck debris is still out in the open after sitting on the seabed for centuries.

Edit: of course, I guess there could be other shipwrecks in that are that we didn't see because they did sink.

[MG23]

Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.1. As I understand it, there was no 'straight and level theory', except in the very early days. Later, they modelled a wide variety of routes at different speeds and altitudes and variations of speed and altitude to find the ones that best matched the satellite data.

2. The big question all along has not really been at what latitude it made the final transmission, but how close to that position it hit the sea. the assumption has been that it spiralled in close to the arc of the final transmission, but it could have travelled tens of miles from there before finally crashing. It may be sitting on the seabed half a mile outside the area that's been searched, and it seems likely based on the debris analysis that it's within a few miles of the area already searched at the north of the search area.

My personal guess is that someone on board set it to fly to the south pole or a convenient waypoint nearby, and we could probably find it by searching a relatively small area around the final arc that coincides with those course settings. I remember someone pointing out early on that a setting of 180 degrees at constant speed closely matched all the ping arcs.

If this is the end, hopefully we'll be able to crowdsource a drone search in a decade or two.

[RatherBeFlying]

One of the items is an interior cabin panel from the R1 door area - indicative of fuselage breakup. One would think that there would have been a debris field similar to AF447, but the searches may not have covered that area before the debris dispersed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/jan/17/missing-flight-mh370-a-visual-guide-to-the-parts-and-debris-found-so-far

[MG23]

One would think that there would have been a debris field similar to AF447, but the searches may not have covered that area before the debris dispersed.

Actually, one of the arguments for the aircraft being at the north end of the current search area is that no debris from that area was likely to have drifted into any of the areas searched for debris after the crash.

[Jetset 88]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/17/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-called-off

What next I wonder? How many years or decades until technology is developed to find it?

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2016/12/31/will-boeing-china-take-mh370-search-2017/
The cost of installing all ETOPS aircraft with a detachable, solar-powered transmitter on a floating balloon which could be barostatically released at below say 20 metres, would surely be less than the incredible cost of the search for MH370 which still has produced nil result.

[Chris Scott]

Thanks for the link, RBF.

The detached cabin interior trim-panel from Door 1R, which is presumably the forward (service) door on the R/H side, and apparently confirmed as from MH370, suggests that the fuselage did not remain intact with all doors closed. Either the fuselage broke up, or the door opened as a random result of the impact of an unpressurised cabin, or a door-assist (opening) system was triggered, or someone opened the door after a relatively successful ditching. The latter seems unlikely.

Regarding fuselage breakup, this would have exposed most or all of the cabin trim panels to the elements. In that event I suggest that the finding of a door trim-panel would be less likely than panels from the rest of the cabin. It seems likely, therefore that Door 1R opened.

[MG23]

From what I remember, other pieces of what could be cabin debris have been found (e.g. what appears to be part of a seat back), but they're not conclusively linked to MH370. But that's an interesting theory about the door.

Edit: the possible seat back panel is shown here: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37820122

[kaikohe76]

Mustafagander

I assume there were no relatives of yours or close family members on this aircraft. In my opinon, you made a rather silly remark without giving it much thought first. Yes, the search did cost a great deal & unfortunately it did have to stop sometime I suppose. However what would you have done, had you been in charge? Have you no thought for the families of all those who so sadly perished.

[onetrack]

Personally, I wonder if the scenario of some kind of aircraft damage (say, caused by an O2 bottle fire) that affected the flying characteristics of the aircraft, without it a being a major impediment, was considered in the flight path projections?

This would have the effect of shortening the calculated total flight distance - and this figure appears to me to be the singular major "rubbery" factor that has impacted on the success of the search.

If the total flight distance was say, 10% less than the "best projection", this obviously puts the aircraft well North of the designated search area - and the MH370 debris finds around Mauritius most certainly point to a more Northerly crash location.

[porterhouse]

I assume there were no relatives of yours or close family members on this aircraft. In my opinon, you made a rather silly remark without giving it much thought first.
But he's got a point, why must Australia pay at all? It was a Malaysian aircraft and passengers were mostly Chinese, frankly it is China which is now such a large economy that should pick up the tab or even carry on the search at their own expense.

[mustafagander]

kaikohe76,
Correct, there were no relatives of mine on board MH370. I respect your opinion that I "made a rather silly remark without giving it much thought first" but you are entirely wrong. I thought about it quite a bit and concluded that it is unreasonable for the Oz taxpayer to spend these vast amounts of money on something which really is irrelevant to 99% or more of them.
Were I in charge I would have sent the hat around to the major beneficiaries, the families of the victims, to fund the search. I'm certain that it would come back almost empty because most people these days expect somebody else to pay for things and avoid personal responsibility for these sorts of costs.
Personally I'd dearly love to know what happened but my more than 40 years in longhaul aviation has taught me much, including how to determine cost/benefit ratios, and this one does not stack up.

[Chris2303]

kaikohe76,
Correct, there were no relatives of mine on board MH370. I respect your opinion that I "made a rather silly remark without giving it much thought first" but you are entirely wrong. I thought about it quite a bit and concluded that it is unreasonable for the Oz taxpayer to spend these vast amounts of money on something which really is irrelevant to 99% or more of them.
Were I in charge I would have sent the hat around to the major beneficiaries, the families of the victims, to fund the search. I'm certain that it would come back almost empty because most people these days expect somebody else to pay for things and avoid personal responsibility for these sorts of costs.
Personally I'd dearly love to know what happened but my more than 40 years in longhaul aviation has taught me much, including how to determine cost/benefit ratios, and this one does not stack up.
You seriously want to make the relatives pay??????

[deanm]

May have legs...
MH370: New report virtually pinpoints location of missing flight (http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/explosive-new-report-virtually-pinpoints-location-of-missing-flight-mh370/news-story/182daac1538bc01c7955e1a5b431c98b)

[Lantern10]

I guess we can only hope and keep waiting.

[wheels_down]

Yes but the Turnbull Government will spend the next few years working out who is going to pay for it.

Then another 12 months negotiating contracts. Then Labour will probably take power and its back to square 1....

Welcome to Australia.

[Ovation]

It's been reported the search organisation are prepared to resume looking for MH370 in return for a success fee from Malaysian Airlines.

Makes me wonder whether they know something nobody else does?

[Capn Bloggs]

Welcome to Australia.
Who's aeroplane was it? Where did it takeoff from? Where was it going? :hmm:

[Lantern10]

A bit more info here for anyone interested.


MH370: 1258 days later, new analysis pinpoints possible location of missing Malaysia Airlines plane (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mh370-1258-days-later-new-analysis-pinpoints-possible-location-of-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-20170816-gxxc4s.html)

[deanm]

A bit more info here for anyone interested.

MH370: 1258 days later, new analysis pinpoints possible location of missing Malaysia Airlines plane (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mh370-1258-days-later-new-analysis-pinpoints-possible-location-of-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-20170816-gxxc4s.html)

"We don't know definitely if these items are actually parts of the plane. But they are right where we expected there to be pieces of plane, based on all our other evidence. It might be a false lead, but it's worth pursuing if you want to continue the search."

There's the issue: if you scoured other tracts of ocean, would you similarly find apparent man-made 'bits'?
I think so. There's a lot of shipping containers and the like in the oceans that never made it to destination.

[G0ULI]

The original search has been costed at $160 million to search 120,000 square kilometres. The new search of only 5,000 square kilometres should therefore only cost $6.4 million. That seems like a bargain if it wasn't for the suggestion that the area that actually might need to be searched is 25,000 square kilometres or very nearly a fifth as large as the original search. That would probably end up costing $32 million and does not seem such a reasonable sum given the low probability of success.

Putting forward a small initial search area is a useful psychological ploy. Once on the hook for a few million dollars, it becomes much easier to attempt to seek further funding to extend the search given the amount invested to date.

So is this really a bargain basement solution or a cynical attempt to milk more government funds out of this tragedy?

[Less Hair]

Shouldn't we hear more about the police investigation results of the pilot's background first before the next pointless seafloor search is called for?

[jimjim1]

MH370 drift (http://www.marine.csiro.au/~griffin/MH370/)

MH370 - drift analysis
David Griffin
16 August 2017

With onward links



News video that points to above (via google)
https://thewest.com.au/news/mh370/mh370-french-military-satellite-images-pinpoint-location-of-missing-plane-says-new-australian-reports-ng-b88566773z

[A0283]

https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2014/aair/ae-2014-054/

Associated pdf of 39.75 mb plus links to the other, earlier, reports.

Rephrase that - The Final Report of the Operational Search is out.

[A0283]

The Operational Search for MH370
Executive summary

On 8 March 2014, a Boeing 777 aircraft operated as Malaysia Airlines flight 370 (MH370) was lost during a flight from Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia to Beijing in the People’s Republic of China carrying 12 crew and 227 passengers. The search for the missing aircraft commenced on 8 March 2014 and continued for 1,046 days until 17 January 2017 when it was suspended in accordance with a decision made by a tripartite of Governments, being Malaysia, Australia and the People’s Republic of China.

The initial surface search and the subsequent underwater search for the missing aircraft have been the largest searches of their type in aviation history. The 52 days of the surface search involving aircraft and surface vessels covered an area of several million square kilometres. A sub surface search for the aircraft’s underwater locator beacons was also conducted during the surface search.

The underwater search started with a bathymetry survey which continued as required throughout the underwater search and has mapped a total of 710,000 square kilometres of Indian Ocean seafloor, the largest ever single hydrographic survey. The high resolution sonar search covered an area in excess of 120,000 square kilometres, also the largest ever search or survey of its kind. Despite the extraordinary efforts of hundreds of people involved in the search from around the world, the aircraft has not been located.

Regardless of the cause of the loss of MH370, there were no transmissions received from the aircraft after the first 38 minutes of the flight. Systems designed to automatically transmit the aircraft’s position including the transponder and the aircraft communications addressing and reporting system failed to transmit the aircraft’s position after this time period. Subsequent analysis of radar and satellite communication data revealed the aircraft had actually continued to fly for a further seven hours. Its last position was positively fixed at the northern tip of Sumatra by the surveillance systems operating that night, six hours before it ended the flight in the southern Indian Ocean.

The challenge which faced those tasked with the search was to trace the whereabouts of the aircraft using only the very limited data that was available. This data consisted of aircraft performance information and satellite communication metadata initially, and then later during the underwater search, long-term drift studies to trace the origin of MH370 debris which had been adrift for more than a year, and in some cases, more than two years. The types of data, and the scientific methods used for its analysis, were never intended to be used to track an aircraft or pin point its final location.

On 28 April 2014, the surface search for MH370 coordinated by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) was concluded and the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) assumed responsibility for conducting the underwater search for the aircraft. The underwater search area was initially defined at 60,000 square kilometres, and was increased in April 2015 when the Tripartite Governments (Malaysia, Australia and the People’s Republic of China) agreed to expand the search area to 120,000 square kilometres. The primary objective of the underwater search was to establish whether or not the debris field of the missing aircraft was in the area of seafloor defined by expert analysis of the aircraft’s flight path and other information. If a debris field was located, the search needed to confirm the debris was MH370 by optical imaging, and then map the debris field to enable planning for a subsequent recovery operation.

Once underwater search operations commenced in October 2014, the MH370 debris field could potentially have been located at any time. A recovery operation would need to have commenced as soon as possible after the debris field was located and the Tripartite governments had agreed on the next steps. The ATSB's role was therefore to also put in place the arrangements and plans necessary for a rapid recovery operation to occur at short notice.

The underwater search applied scientific principles to defining the most probable area to be searched through modelling the aircraft’s flight path and behaviour at the end of the flight. The flight path modelling was based on unique and sophisticated analysis of the metadata associated with the periodic automated satellite communications to and from the aircraft in the final six hours of the flight. The end-of-flight behaviour of the aircraft, when MH370 was considered to have exhausted its fuel, has been analysed and simulated.

In 2015 and 2016, debris from MH370 was found on the shores of Indian Ocean islands and the east African coastline. The debris yielded significant new insights into how and where the aircraft ended its flight. It was established from the debris that the aircraft was not configured for a ditching at the end-of-flight. By studying the drift of the debris and combining these results with the analysis of the satellite communication data and the results of the surface and underwater searches, a specific area of the Indian Ocean was identified which was more likely to be where the aircraft ended the flight.

The understanding of where MH370 may be located is better now than it has ever been. The underwater search has eliminated most of the high probability areas yielded by reconstructing the aircraft’s flight path and the debris drift studies conducted in the past 12 months have identified the most likely area with increasing precision. Re-analysis of satellite imagery taken on 23 March 2014 in an area close to the 7th arc has identified a range of objects which may be MH370 debris. This analysis complements the findings of the First Principles Review and identifies an area of less than 25,000 square kilometres which has the highest likelihood of containing MH370.

The ATSB’s role coordinating the underwater search involved the procurement and management of a range of sophisticated and highly technical services. Management of the underwater search was aimed at ensuring high confidence in the acquisition and analysis of the sonar search data so that areas of the seafloor which had been searched could be eliminated. A comprehensive program was implemented to ensure the quality of the sonar coverage. A thorough sonar data review process was used to ensure areas of potential interest were identified and investigated.

During the early stages of the procurement, careful consideration was given to the methods available for conducting a large scale search of the seafloor. Water depths were known to be up to 6,000 m with unknown currents and unknown seafloor topography. Search operations would also have to be conducted in poor weather conditions and in a very remote area far from any land mass. Planning focused on selecting a safe, efficient and effective method to search the seafloor in an operation with an indeterminate timeframe.

The mapping of the seafloor in the search area revealed a challenging terrain for the underwater search which used underwater vehicles operating close to the seafloor. While the deep tow vehicles selected as the primary search method proved to be very effective, the seafloor terrain necessitated the use of a range of search methods including an autonomous underwater vehicle to complete the sonar coverage.

The underwater search area was located up to 2,800 km west of the coast of Western Australia and the prevailing weather conditions in this area for much of the year are challenging. Crews on the search vessels were working for months at a time in conditions which elevated the operational risks. The ATSB ensured that these risks to the safety of the search vessels and their crews were carefully managed.

At the time the underwater search was suspended in January 2017, more than 120,000 square kilometres of seafloor had been searched and eliminated with a high degree of confidence. In all, 661 areas of interest were identified in the sonar imagery of the seafloor. Of these areas, 82 with the most promise were investigated and eliminated as being related to MH370. Four shipwrecks were identified in the area searched.

The intention of this report is to document the search for MH370, in particular, the underwater search including; where the search was conducted (and why), how the search was conducted, the results of the search and the current analysis which defines an area where any future underwater search should be conducted. The report also includes a safety analysis which is focused on the search rather than on discussing the range of factors which may have led to the loss of the aircraft.

The Government of Malaysia is continuing work on their investigation of the facts and circumstances surrounding the loss of MH370 aircraft consistent with their obligations as a member State of ICAO. The Malaysian investigation is being conducted in accordance with the provisions of ICAO Annex 13, Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation.

The search, recovery and investigation of the loss of Air France flight AF447, in the South Atlantic Ocean in 2009, and the loss of MH370 have led to some important learnings related to locating missing aircraft on flights over deep ocean areas. Requirements and systems for tracking aircraft have been enhanced and will continue to be enhanced. Steps are being taken to advance other aircraft systems including emergency locator transponders and flight recorder locator beacons.

The ATSB acknowledges the extraordinary efforts of the hundreds of dedicated professionals from many organisations in Australia and around the world who have contributed their time and efforts unsparingly in the search for MH370.

The reasons for the loss of MH370 cannot be established with certainty until the aircraft is found. It is almost inconceivable and certainly societally unacceptable in the modern aviation era with 10 million passengers boarding commercial aircraft every day, for a large commercial aircraft to be missing and for the world not to know with certainty what became of the aircraft and those on board.

The ATSB expresses our deepest sympathies to the families of the passengers and crew on board MH370. We share your profound and prolonged grief, and deeply regret that we have not been able to locate the aircraft, nor those 239 souls on board that remain missing.

[Trackmaster]

The 7 Television Network in Australia is carrying a story, claiming a resumption of the search MH 370 will be announced tomorrow.

Supposedly US operator Ocean Infinity will be involved, with the Malaysian Government agreeing to a no find, no fee deal.

[BluSdUp]

So they are agreeing on a FF.
Find= Fee!

How big would that be? Any idea?

[aixois]

The 7 Television Network in Australia is carrying a story, claiming a resumption of the search MH 370 will be announced tomorrow

Good afternoon,

In BANGKOK POST today (2017 October 17) too there is this information (with details).

Here are some extracts :


Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai said proposals were received from US-based seabed exploration firm Ocean Infinity, Dutch firm Fugro and an unidentified Malaysian company.

"We won’t be deciding anything now on whether we are embarking on a new search or not," Mr Liow told reporters on the sidelines of an event in Kuala Lumpur. We have to discuss with the companies. It will take some time as it's some detailed discussions," he said. Mr Liow was commenting on media reports from Australia that said Malaysia could resume the search as early as this week.

[OPENDOOR]

A Norwegian research vessel, the Seabed Constructor, equipped with eight autonomous submarines has departed from Durban today for the search area, 1800km west of Perth.

“With multiple autonomous vehicle working simultaneously utilizing innovative technology, we are able to survey huge swathes of the seabed, quickly and with outstanding accuracy,’’ the company’s website says.

Let's hope for a good outcome.

https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21733399-swarm-submarine-drones-will-scour-depths-plane-fantastical-ship

[NiclasB]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/01/23/seabed-constructor-begins-search-for-mh370/

The Seabed Constructor is reported on site and has started the search for MH370.

[.Scott]

The news outlet "The Australian" is reporting in its Business/Aviation section that the MH370 has not been found where it was expected.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation
The hunt for MH370 has covered the area scientists predicted it would be, without finding the aircraft.

There were actually two regions that Ocean Infinity was to search. This seems to suggest that the search in first region (with the $20M bounty) has been completed.

The full article is behind a pay wall.

[.Scott]

Apparently, Malaysia plans on issuing weekly updates on the progress of the MH370 search by Ocean Infinity.

It's first report was Jan 30, for the period Jan 21 - 28. So I expect we should see the next one tomorrow.

Here is the site:

Official Site for #MH370 - MH370 Underwater Search 2018 - 30 January 2018 (http://mh370.gov.my/en/mh370-underwater-search-2018)

The chart below shows the progress. The chart itself includes the legend for most of the color coding. But there are two exceptions:

1) The section in orange is half of the "Site 1, Area 1" search area. It is designated the "Phase 1" search area - and it is orange because, as of Jan 28, it had been completed (with no MH370 finds).

2) No legend or explanation is provided in the report for the red box. It is the other half of "Site 1 Area 1". My guess is that it was the next area to be searched.

http://www.sbowden.org/images/MH370%20Ocean%20Infinity%20Week%2001s.png


There is additional information in this report:
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/mh370-search-vessel-seabed-constructor-switches-off-tracking-system/news-story/87f0cc6516bef3240d92bf667d2e24aa
Be patient with this news report. It starts out reporting about the search ships AIS, but it gets better.

[.Scott]

As expected, Malaysia issued an update on the MH370 search this morning (Feb 6).
The report is for the week ending February 4.

MH370 not found. All 8 AUVs are being used. Weather has been good.

It shows that almost all of Site 1, Area 1 has been completed (the southern most of the three yellow sections). This represent 7500 sqKm out of the 33030 sq Km in site 1 and the 81353 sq Km in total. That's a bit more than 9% of the total.

The search vehicle has left for port (Freemantle) and so no progress against the search area is expected this coming week.

It is scheduled to depart Freemantle for the search zone on February 12th. So I expect the search to resume around the 16th.

Here is the site:

Official Site for MH370 Underwater Search Reports (http://mh370.gov.my/en/mh370-underwater-search-2018)

[OldLurker]

At first I thought huh? they've been on-site only two weeks and already they've gone away on a nearly two week round trip to Fremantle for resupply and crew change? But the seas down there can be pretty wild and although they say "favorable weather is forecasted" I guess the weather may not be reliable enough for the survey ship to stay on location with a tender bringing crew and supplies.

[MG23]

Also, I believe they sailed from South Africa, so they've been at sea for some time.

With a 'no find, no fee' deal, I'm sure they've worked out the best schedule to search the largest possible area.

[_Phoenix]

I belive they should include the area with shallow water near the presumed black box pings that were heard on 5 & 6 of April 2014. Also, the barnacles age and species on the flaperon would indicate a possible location.

[Senior Pilot]

Thread bumped for renewed interest.