Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[wiggy]

I'd hoped the 45,000 feet figure had been kicked into touch by the time I got back here, seems it's still being argued over.

IMHO a Rolls powered T7 at that stage of that flight isn't going to close to getting get up there.

And yes I've done many performance courses and operate (at times) a Rolls powered T7.

Now OTOH if there's proof that there were significant height excursions and that that the aircrfat then continued onwards in stable flight I am minded to think back to a notorious incident a European airline had probably well over a decade ago.

[HighAndFlighty]

@p.j.m.

Because when the aircraft is pinging home, it doesn't do so directly, it is relayed via satellite. This is exactly the kind of stuff Immarsat does

As has been previously noted in the thread, the pings would have been sent out even though MAL does not subscribe to Boeing's Health Check software.

[Sheep Guts]

The Presidents statement doesn't quite add up...

"Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.
According to the new data, the last confirmed communication between the plane and the satellite was at 8:11AM Malaysian time on Saturday 8th March. The investigations team is making further calculations which will indicate how far the aircraft may have flown after this last point of contact. This will help us to refine the search.

Due to the type of satellite data, we are unable to confirm the precise location of the plane when it last made contact with the satellite."


Surely if the satellite data can't confirm precise position how can they confirm the Military Primary plots then. Something is a miss here......

[philipat]

With the "New" information in mind, I return to a post I made this time yesterday. An American General interviewed by Fox suggested that the aircraft was bound for Pakistan. Again, that was before the NW OR SW corridors had been speculated.

IMHO, if it did head NW, Pakistan is the most likely destination because I can't believe a T7 would get anywhere near Afghanistan or beyond unnoticed. That part of the world is full of US assets, including drones. Conversely, large areas of Pakistan are under the effective control of the Taliban. If it was piracy, this would be the most likely destination.

If it was a suicide mission by whomever, the Southern track out over the Southern IO would be more likely. And that probably explains why US asssets were already being positioned in the Indian Ocean.

If indeed the aircraft did go up to FL450 immediately after going silent, that suggests that hostages were not an issue. So unless there was an extremely valuable cargo (And we still haven't seen a cargo manifest) it would seem to point to the suicide mission by a person or persons unknown, in which case the IO seems more probable.

Even if it is found, the CVR will be useless as it only records two hours. The DFDR won't, necessarily, provide anything definitive either?

[OldDutchGuy]

Let us recognize that the Malysian PM is most likely not trained as a physicist (an inference of mine), and when he starts hinting at what he thinks are facts, he is actually speaking of deductions, or inferences.

We already have the Facts of the take-off, destination, last radio contact, message, and no transponder signal. We have as Fact the last known Heading and Altitude.

We have these indications of "pings" being picked up, with no further details. That event gets transposed in the "fact" that the ping(s) came from this aircraft, but that is not fact, that is inference. From that, we have the deductive inference that this aircraft is still flying around at altitude for some 7.5 hours after last contact. Again, this inference gets transposed into "fact." Except it isn't.

Absence of events are also facts. Factually, nobody has seen this aircraft. Nobody has reliably reported seeing it land in Tajikistan, or anywhere else. Nobody has seen it crash, and nobody has seen any wreckage. There is no factual basis to indicate that it has crashed over water. There is no factual basis to say it has not, conversely. Equally, there is no factual basis that it crashed into terrain; nor that it did not.

There have been some rather short, and snippy, even pejorative sniping by highly experienced professional pilots at other pilots, which leads me to the inference (not fact) that everybody's nerves are getting frayed. And you fellows, who are historically exceptionally cool under pressures that would crack any mere mortal, should know better. Since you have ice water in your veins, now is the time to show it.

We can make some inferences based on plausibility. Is it plausible that this aircraft is still flying around, thousands of miles from where it should be, at altitude, and not near any place to land, some 7.5 hours after last radio contact? Nope. It is plausible that the aircraft flew right across India for hours and was undetected? Nope. It it plausible that it flew undetected towards Perth? Nope. Is it plausible that it was taken over by hijackers, flown around by amateurs, landed in the dark on the undercarriage on some 7,500-ft surface capable of handling the weight, without lights or any ILS - and nobody in authority knows anything about it? Nope. Is it plausible that it splashed and left no vast field of debris and bodies - as all other water crashes have done? Nope.

Is it plausible that, after 7 days with no facts linked directly and observably to this aircraft, and that we still do not know what ocean (or land mass) this aircraft is in, we may never know? Unfortunately, Yes. That is plausible.

[lapp]

Its obvious to me that the aircraft is "pinging home" sending packets of data back to a control centre, where they get distributed to various people depending on what they are and who subscribe to them.

But since MAS did not subscribe, now the burden is on Inmarsat to do telecom forensics based on the little they may have received, but never relayed.

I think that no location data is included in the pings and even if it was it would not be decoded on sat, so they will have to work with just signal analysis, not even exact triangulation, as someone explained before, from that the "corridors" notion.

[Lifin]

If it is piracy then what is the motive. Either very VIP PAX we haven't been told about or cargo. Why aren't they telling us about the cargo if that is all so innocent? and why aren't the press jumping up and down asking about it? :confused:

[fox niner]

I have been inside the E/E compartment of the 777 during flight. We had to push back a few CB's which were not pushed back during a hangar visit. (all lavatories didn't fuction) we found out about 30 minutes after departure when the first passengers started going to the lavatories.
Took a portable O2 bottle with me, in case of decompression while I was down below. took about 3 minutes total time. Saved us from having to turn back.

[awblain]

These reports of looking in Turkmenistan AND northern Thailand are surely misrepresentations, unless the news editors' atlases were just open at T in the index. Turkmenistan is as far from KL as Beijing is, but a long long way from northern Thailand.

The intention of the press statement was presumably to say that there's the possibility of looking along a track from Turkmenistan to Thailand - since it presumably wasn't seen by either Chinese or Indian radars.

[RetiredF4]

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-161.html

Few pages ago i postet my take on a possible landing site.


I would put my bet on great coco island, i posted a reference few posts earlier, here is a better view.

Great Coco Island (Myanmar) (http://wikimapia.org/13816357/Great-Coco-Island-Myanmar)
Livefist: China Expands Airbase On Coco Island (http://www.livefistdefence.com/2011/11/chinas-airbase-expands-on-coco-island.html)

1.400 meters could be enough after fuel has been used? That would explain the flighttime to use up the fuel as much as possible. By an able and trained crew i think so. Could it land unobserved? Nobody was looking there from the orbit, when the search started to concentrate to the east of Malaysia. It is a remote place, only around a thousand people there on the whole island. The airport seems to be off limits due to military presence. Could it have been refueld there? There is probably fuel available or could be made available. Could it take off again? I dont know, what do the experts say after removing all load with some fuel to get to its next destination, be it another landing place or an eternal wet grave?

My original link, which included a high resolution picture of the place showing all details of the military instalations is gone, not from the site, but from the whole net. I cant find it anymore. I replaced the link in the quote with other not so good ones as they are older, before the runway was built to 1.400 meters.

If the mods allow, i like to raise the question wether it would fit the timeframe of the last received ping down in the south, if MH370 has been landed at great coco island, unloaded whatever they desired, and then be flown to the deep spot to get rid of evidence. If this pure speculative plot would be considered possible, then two things come into my mind:
From the beginning the uncertainity wether it headed to the north or to the south does only makes sense, when there had been contradicting information from the beginning, meaning a contact in the north and a contact in the south.
As there seems to be no information / ping reported enroute to the south, it could be assumed that this last ping was intentional, to point to the final grave of the jet and thus making believe it went there without landing before.

If the times do not sum up, or the jet would not be able to takeoff with the necessary fuel load from a 1400 meter runway, then all speculation above is doomed from the beginning.

edit:
Wikimapia - Let's describe the whole world! (http://wikimapia.org/m/#lat=14.1351742&lon=93.3695639&z=14&l=5&m=b)
Go to position 14.13151742 lat 93.3695639 lon

[HighAndFlighty]

@Sheep


See TelcoAg's posts #3774 and #3800. The whys and wherefores are there. Not enough data to triangulate, but they can establish the corridor.

[Frequent Traveller]

@ HighAndFlighty posting # 3885 re "A simple satellite phone would do nicely" :

To relay the signal of your satellite phone through the 772 viewed as an effective Faraday cage you still need an outside antenna (with the systems backing it operational), so if the Air Pirates wanted to OK the landing at the intended remote airstrip somewhere conferring with their ground based acolytes, they'd need to switch the Inmarsat antenna back to 'ON' at some point in time. At that point, they'd give away their location, oder ?

[CodyBlade]

Live TV | Astro Awani (http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live)

MAS Capt. now speaking is making a lot of sense.

[sleemanj]

Sure, an aircraft goes missing, there'll be a search but this has been intense.

PAX were from many countries. 777's are used by many countries. There is a very large incentive on both fronts for many countries to assist in locating the aircraft in order to determine it's fate.

[Foray Access]

While I realize that all possibilities remain, ranging from malice to complicity to incompetence on the part of the flight crew, the possible hijackers, and ATC or military staff who observed the subsequent flight of MH 370, let's see what educated guesses we can make. Let's have a thought experiment that concentrates on likely events and likely reactions (while acknowledging that other answers aren't totally discounted).

1. Is there a general feeling that a NW flight path implies piracy for future use while a SE flight path implies pilot suicide?

2. Previously, forum members were able to share maps showing the civilian radar coverage areas in SE Asia. Is the same info available on India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Myanmar?

2a. If there are visible gaps in that radar coverage, and we assume the aircraft flew through those gaps to a destination beyond those countries, how does that flight path narrow down the remaining endurance and possible destinations?

2b. If the aircraft did not purposefully avoid radar coverage when making landfall, what reaction would we expect to a NORDO aircraft passing into India, Bangladesh, Thailand, or Myanmar? Would any professional pilots with experience flying through those countries comment specifically?

3. If the aircraft WAS landed safely at some remote site after a piracy for future use, why would that "future use" not have been carried out yet? Why wait and risk the possibility of discovery and disruption of one's plot?

4. If the aircraft was detected at the extreme southern end of this overlapping Venn diagram, 1000 miles west of Perth, are there any airfields within 1 hour of flight time that would be usable by a 777?

[mixture]

I beg to differ. A simple satellite phone would do nicely. They are small enough to easily be taken on as hand luggage.

Utter nonsense.

Have you ever tried to use a satellite phone inside of a vehicle ? I have, and you can hardly establish a viable network connection, let alone make a phone call unless you have an external antenna connection, which, lets face it, they are very very very unlikely to have had on a 777 !

[bsg]

To torture an analogy -

ACARS is like SMS on your phone, and more accurately, its like Apple's iMessage.

The ACARS generates a msg. In then makes a routing choice of which way to send the msg to "base".

The msg then gets sent to the appropriate system for transmission (VHF, HF or Sat, depending on availability).

(Using the iMessage analogy, its sends the message preferably via Wifi, then 3/4G if Wifi isnt available).

So, disabling ACARS stops messages being sent - via VHF/HF/Sat. It doesnt necessarily turn off any of those specific comm sets.

If I wanted to "stealth" a 777, you'd turn off the Transponder and ACARS - they both automatically transmit data. There might be other systems you'd turn off - external lights, dim cabin lights for instance. TCAS if turning "off" the Transponder doesnt also shut that down.

As for VHF or HF, that just requires discipline not to transmit from the flightdeck. You might want to keep them on to monitor ATC.

Sat comm's is interesting. Out of VHF/HF and Sat, its the only one that maintains, in some form, continuous communication with the Sat. Like a cell phone maintains communication with the tower when not making a call.

I can see this being overlooked if, hypothetically, someone wanted to turn a 777 dark.

[FarmerNic]

Malaysian Airlines have clearly radically changed their fuelling policy if there was enough on board one hour out for a further 7 hours flight (yet not enough for return trip to Beijing). Can any professionals explain please?

[HighAndFlighty]

@Frequent Traveller

I was envisaging they would have their own antennae with the phone, or could rig one up. But your point about them giving themselves away is exactly what I was getting at.

Like I said, we don't know exactly what data Immarsat relayed.

I'm just postulating that the data may well have included satphone calls.

They wouldn't actually give away their location. As has been noted, you can't triangulate off one or two satellites.


@ Mixture

I take your point about using the satphone handset in a car. In the plane, perhaps even with an antennae across the cockpit windows, they may have more success.

I'm happy to be corrected. The people who planned this excursion are rather clued up.

[SQGRANGE]

Re Question - would it be common for a high-hours pilot with significant seniority to be flying a red-eye flight (which I gather most pilots are not particularly fond of)
Yes - some airlines, the PIC does not get a choice of routes/times regardless of hours/seniority or even routes for that matter.
Some airlines however a senior Captain would not dream nor have to do such a flight.

[SAMADI]

Police arrived at the home of 53-year-old Zaharie Ahmad Shah shortly after the PM finished speaking, the Reuters report adds.by Alan McGuinness 1:19 AM

Breaking: Senior Malaysia police official says house of pilot of missing flight MH370 is being searched, according to Reuters.

[rh200]

Question for somebody that knows!

The location deductions by the sattelites is assumend to be from differential power levels. This would seem to have a extremely large error factor. Could the logs just be time tagged when the ping was recieved.

Sort of like a reverse gps. Another words sattelite 1 gets it at time x, and sattelite 2 gets it at x.000002 seconds later. This to would give a north south area of interest. I presume each sattelite has known time on board.

[Wannabe Flyer]

I think it is safe to say the IAF has sufficient coverage to pick up a T7

IAF scrambles Su-30MKI after spotting UFO near Amritsar border - Worldnews.com (http://article.wn.com/view/2014/02/24/IAF_scrambles_Su30MKI_after_spotting_UFO_near_Amritsar_borde/)

There seems to be some weight age to the flight swinging south and headed towards Australia. Given the timing , location and the gaps in radar it has penetrated this was done by someone with explicit knowledge and precision timing. Would find it hard to believe crew rest room door opening at opportune moment of handover and all other aspects given general awareness post 9/11.

If it is a man made event it definitely has an inside hand.

[Pace]

Surely the most likely explanation is a massive decompression and not terrorist activities.

We would have surely heard from the terrorist organisation who spearheaded this by now as a terrorist attack would be pointless without a result to the organisation and that organisation to claim their victory.

so massive decompression has to be the most likely cause to explain a number of course changes, lack of communication and coming down way off track.

[daikilo]

Assuming the info provided at the press sonferance is correct, it would be interesting to know what track the aircraft is believed to have followed. For instance, if it believed to have turned north-west after crossing the penisular and there is no sign of it having subsequently turned again, I would tend to assume it has taken the northern of the two possibilities. In addition, if it flew for up to 7 hours it would suggest that it would then have either had a controlled landing or a crash-landing by fuel starvation.

I may be wrong, but if it did not have a significant cargo load, at maximum continuous thrust I believe it just might have been able to reach 45000 feet toward the end of the flight, although whether it would have had enough fuel to fly that far at that thrust I have no idea (anyone with a flight-planning handbook?).

So what if from a point in the flight, it just flew off into the night with no-one at the controls? Indeed, could it have been following way-points in the database from a previous flight?

[Communicator]

The ACARS data feed from the engine systems (for Rolls Royce) and other aircraft systems (sent to Boeing) stopped or was switched off.

The Satcom system (used by ACARS as an alternative to VHF links to ground stations) continued to operate, but only exchanged routine information (pings) with Inmarsat to confirm that the link was still alive. (These "pings" contain information identifying the querying aircraft.)

This is like your Outlook email browser checking with an email server every few minutes. The message check proceeds even if no messages are waiting to be sent or received. Of course, the client needs to identify itself to enable the server to check for messages for that aircraft. Normally, the senders and recipients of messages never hear about these purely procedural link maintenance communications.

When the Malaysian government says that ACARS was "switched off", they mean only that no messages were sent or received after a certain time. Neither the Malaysian government nor the hijackers realized that the Satcom link would remain active even without ACARS messages to transmit or receive.

[ana1936]

As mentioned earlier the satellite communications are received by the INMARSAT service which uses geostationary satellites covering much of the earth. Here is their latest map of coverage for the service (Classic Aero) which covers ACARS.

Our coverage - Inmarsat (http://www.inmarsat.com/about-us/our-satellites/our-coverage/)

You will see that there is only one satellite covering the India Ocean (the blue one) so that will have picked up the signals for most of the morning of March the 8th (until just after 8am).

So there will be no triangulation involved, and not even two satellites to work off.

Obviously the plane did not turn up under the coverage of the western green satellite because then the authorities would be more definite about the final signals.

[steelbranch]

anybody wondering what took them so long to let us know the possible new tracks the aircraft may have taken, Inmarsat data, etc?

More smoke and mirrors. In a global surveillance society, there's not a hope the thing could be missing this length of time and nobody be aware as to its location.

It went east, no it went west, no it went south, oh hang on, it went north west. Seriously. And nobody picked it up. Anywhere. They're still hiding something.

[WetFeet]

Searches now seem to be concentrated to the west and north west of Malaysia and hijacking, by the pilot or other person they don't say, seems to be the favourite theory coming from press conferences. This seems to be based on the Malaysian Air Force radar seeing it turn but as an unidentified aircraft.

Has anyone asked what the Air Force was doing whilst this unidentified aircraft was flying towards them? Same question to countries further along the supposed track. All sitting on their hands? Why were fighters not sent up to investigate? I am sure they would have been in Europe.

Could this have been a hijacking to test the air defence systems in the area?

[Communicator]

Like cell phones, ADS can be disrupted by jamming in interactive mode.

On the other hand, in one-way broadcast mode, ADS-B only transmits without waiting to receive any signals.

To jam the transmitted ADS-B signal, a jammer would need to generate and radiate a conflicting signal at the same or greater effective power as seen from a land-based receiver. This is difficult to do without a specialized antenna mounted outside the metal fuselage.

It is not entirely clear at present whether ADS-B transmissions from MH370 were actually disabled, or whether they were merely not received due to range issues. FR24 appeared to say that they lost the signal as the aircraft disappeared below the horizon.

[mm43]

@rh200,Could the logs just be time tagged when the ping was recieved.You are absolutely right. That timing will produce a position line (in this case a curved one) and the originating signal will be somewhere along that line.

IMHO that is the clear reason why the authorities are talking about either to the NW or the SW. If the reason to go SW was a "terminal" one, then a very deep spot in the Indian Ocean would be a likely outcome. The reason to go NW, would probably be politically based. Take your pick.

[belowMDA]

It would be interesting to find out if there was an abnormally large discretionary uplift above the flight plan fuel. That might point to a deliberate attempt to extend the range.

[ana1936]

A detailed post of mine about how to use INMARSAT satellite coverage to narrow down the location of signals has not appeared yet after I posted it.

However, a brief extra point is that, even with just one ACARS satellite communicating with you (which is the case over most of the Indian Ocean and subcontinent), you can determine distance (from signal to satellite) quite accurately from ping times (as there are usually several time-stamped messages going each way).

[ETOPS]

Amazing fact !!

The police have only just started searching the aircrew's houses some 8 days - read that again - 8 days after the event.

We discussed this course of action on about page 2 - why are they just starting to check the "obvious"??

[Sheep Guts]

They need now to do a live test with B777 fly it on the same track with all radar and facilitates watching and recording and see if the can replicate what the THINK they have already!! I'm sure if they do this they will eliminate or confirm their assumptions to date. Otherwise the search windows are too large and there are not enough assets worldwide to cover such a large search zone.

[TelcoAg]

anybody wondering what took them so long to let us know the possible new tracks the aircraft may have taken, Inmarsat data, etc?

I'm probably biased by being in the telecom engineering industry, but calculating the signal strength boundaries to create a 2-dimensional range would take a good bit of effort. Not to mention, if I'm at Inmarsat, my model is going to change based on every piece of new information that comes in regarding the possible actions undertaken during the flight.

Imagine you're holding your cellphone, and some guy looking at two towers worth of signal strength data is asked to find you. In a 2-d world it wouldn't be that difficult. I could pretty easily nail you down to two points. But now, get in an elevator, and I'm going to have a hell of a time mapping your movement.

In this scenario, going only off received signal strength data between two satellites, I have to figure out a boundary for a high and low signal that I want to say you crashed in. Now I look at all of the other data but some critical pieces are missing. I don't know how fast you were moving between two points when the satcom pinged, I don't know your changes in altitude, and on top of that, I don't know what interference or noise could've been introduced into the system at any given time by your environment or your actions on the plane.

I'll guarantee you one thing though - every hour spent by an RF engineer to limit that range saves somewhere on the order of half a day's worth of ocean to cover.

This is an incredibly complex system with limited knowledge of all of the variables.

To describe the difficulty, it would be like me asking you to find out which cows your hamburger came from after visiting a random McDonalds. You could probably limit it down to a few slaughter houses, but you'd never be able to pinpoint the cows.

[Jet Man]

Communicator

Don't know how to paste your post here.

If that's the case (Satellite com/data system still "pinging" satellite after ACARS/CPDLC/ADS-C turned off) then the authorities would know how long the 777 system was active for. Is this the case?

[jugofpropwash]

If the climb to F450 and then the erratic descent to ~F230 is true, it looks awfully like someone was at the controls who was finding that the real thing wasn't quite the same as Flight Sim. and it took him a while to get his head around handling it.

Everything I've seen suggests that F450 would at best have been nearly impossible - and the rapid descent WOULD have been impossible. That said, if there was a climb to anything approaching that altitude, I suspect it was done to eliminate opposition from the cabin. From what has been posted, the drop down oxygen masks are useless at that altitude.

[StormyKnight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiwHC3sCMAApe2v.jpg

Source: NewsBreaker ‏@NewsBreaker 1h
MAP: Shows 2 possible corridors that Malayasian Prime Minister mentioned for flight #MH370 pic.twitter.com/rv3q3FFA4e - @KHOLMESlive

[Neogen]

I think it is safe to say the IAF has sufficient coverage to pick up a T7

IAF scrambles Su-30MKI after spotting UFO near Amritsar border (http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/iaf-scrambles-su-30mki-after-spotting-ufo-near-amritsar-border_913810.html)

Just for a weather balloon they scrambled Sukhois.. may be they are more vigilant on their western borders..

[rog747]

latest Press conf

Malaysian PM says seems the US NTSB, FAA and our own UK AAIB are working on the data too and concur

[StormyKnight]

Communicator

Don't know how to paste your post here.

If that's the case (Satellite com/data system still "pinging" satellite after ACARS/CPDLC/ADS-C turned off) then the authorities would know how long the 777 system was active for. Is this the case?

Last Satellite communication was seen at 8:11am Malaysian time (GMT+8)

[Centre of Pressure]

Captain PB #3932.

That actually sounds possible. How would you explain the cut of the ACARS info though?

[rog747]

but the sea is 4000m deep where they are now searching

[StormyKnight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiwPWMOCYAAG3ZC.jpg:large

Last location reported to be somewhere on the red lines...(the 40 degree lines)

This looks more logical, but the lines appear to be angulation related stopping at 0...

The angle appears to be the angle from the ground to the satellite, so 0 the satellite would be at the horizon.

So these 40 degree arcs is what the PM was referring to? & of course they are not a track, it is just that the last received signal was on these arcs somewhere.

Would the 40 degrees be determined by received signal strength as suggested?

[Oceanic]

As a Professional Pilots forum, these fanciful posts are embarassing. Heists, gold bullion, conspiracies. If you haven't anything sensible to post may I request you desist or join a different forum for fictional creative writing. 200 pages of posts, mostly drivel. Thanks to those few who have the expertise to elaborate on the facts.

[OrvilleW]

Come on people - I haven't seen anything posted in this discussion that remotely resembles anything professional, from pilots or rumour. It's all guessing and what-ifs. Why not hold off until you really have something? What is MAS senior staff really thinking and doing? What are the Malaysian armed forces holding (if anything?). What detail is available from other sensors (US etc) throughout the area? Somebody out there knows some of that detail....but I haven't seen it from anyone to date in this thread.

[ana1936]

The INMARSAT which must have been involved in the last hours of pinging communication must have been IOR which is geostationary above the equator at 64 degrees east. (This is the only INMARSAT which deals with ACARS comms which has coverage over the longitudes that the plane was in then).

As I have said before, there would be no triangulation, just (accurate) distance information gleaned from the time to negotiate a single ping (a few short messages backwards and forwards).

The announced northern corridor (N Thailand to Kaz/Tkm) tells us that the distance measured from the final (8:11am) pings was about 4550 km as measured on the earth's surface (to a spot below the satellite). That is how far those two ends of the corridor are from the spot.

So the possible 8:11am locations lie on a circle of that radius around that spot.

I will post a map shortly.

Interestingly, also on that circle, within the northern corridor is Hotan.

[philipat]

I have operated SIN LHR for the last few years routing over KL, Port Blair then over Calcutta. The new info about this flight being flown over this similar route makes we wonder if it "tailgated" such a flight heading towards India. SQ068 was discussed earlier as such a possibility but nobody was ever able to confirm its routing on the evening in question. This is clearly not an amateur operation and that might be quite likely. Coupled with the US General stating that the flight's destination was Pakistan would also compute. Beyond Pakistan, they would start running into some very sophisticated US Military kit, both on the ground and in the air so Kazakhstan seems less likely?

That asssumes the NW track, which would logically be more likely in the case of piracy. IMHO, that is less likely than the SW track, more likely in the event of a suicide mission by a party or parties unknown and for unknown reasons. The US has already deployed assets to the IO and, I'm sure Submarines will already be lurking thereabouts also.

[B777FD]

These new developments make the reports of pax mobile phones ringing much more plausible now.

[StormyKnight]

Press conference #MH370 scheduled at 5.30pm today is cancelled.

No reason given on twitter

Live TV | Astro Awani (http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live) - have reporter reporting from there in an empty conference room but in Malay.

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

Some day we will get to hear what MAS believed was in the cargo manifest, it's perhaps too sensitive to release for now.
But given increased security/scanning over the years how easy is it still to load cargo described as "X" but actually contain "Y" ?

[Glide Landing]

What does all this mean in terms of military defence systems throughtout SouthEast Asia and further.? It looks as if I can load up with nukes and ramble around the skies to my hearts content till I find a nice place on which to drop them. No one will 'see' me with either ground radar, airborne radar or satellite imagery. I thought billions were spent on magic protective envelopes that no missile or aircraft could penetrate. So much for all those campaign ribbons on the military chests not to mention presidential pride of inviolable airspace.
I can't believe that 'they' don't know plenty and that we are not being lead down every garden path there is in order to cover up the reality.

[joy ride]

In answer to Why would hijackers crash into the sea/go beyond fuel range you have to remember that these are desperate and highly motivated people to a degree which our idea of "logic" cannot comprehend.

Who says the hijackers crashed the plane into the ocean? One of the pilots might have done that when realising that all was lost. perhaps a pilot also repeatedly warned the hijackers that fuel was running out, but was ignored....this has happened before.

[ekw]

A lot of people are jumping to conclusions with the word 'hijack'. It just means unauthorised excursion. The pilot flying is still in the frame. If it is murder suicide then where better to hide the evidence than in the deepest most uneven part of the Ocean. That would be SW of LKP.

[p.j.m]

These new developments make the reports of pax mobile phones ringing much more plausible now.

Indeed, the total lack of information about those investigations is very suspicious.

I can't help but think there is indeed a secret mission in progress to what is becoming more and more likely to be the final location.

[ana1936]

Thanks StormyNight 3965 for the post of satellite angle diagram.

The angle of altitude of satellite INMARSAT IOR (which is as I mentioned the only ACARS one covering this area) at 64 degrees East, as viewed from a place on Earth, which is what the lines show, can be calculated from the distance from observer (or pinger) to satellite.

This, in turn, can be calculated very precisely from the time taken to negotiate a single ping (which has some back and forwards messages).

So they have calculated such an angle of 40 degrees for the last ping.

[SaturnV]

Just an observation about the Prime Minister's statement after reading it twice.

The idiomatic structure suggests it was drafted or edited by a native English-speaker, and is not a translation of a Malaysian language original. And the idiom reads a bit more American, than British.

Given some of the phrasing, and the precise choice of words, very likely that NTSB and/or AAIB personnel in Malaysia (or elsewhere) were involved in writing the statement.

[Ian W]

Has anyone besides me noticed the conspicuous absence of information related to getting a fix on the sonar beacons on the CVR and DFDR?

There are enough navies in those waters watching each other and using sophisticated technology to listen for trespassers that someone must have heard something.

Recent hints about a seismic event in the South China Sea are probably veiled hints as to where the 777 may have splashed. And if no one heard anything, then the governments don't want the other governments to know how really bad their surveillance nets are.

For all of that, we may have to wait 20 years for the wreckage to be accidentally found by oil prospectors... It is an ugly story of jihadis getting in over their heads (and losing control of the plane) and Maylaysia not wanting to admit that they failed to prevent it.

The sonar locators on the CVR and DFDR are extremely short range looks like the beancounters were involved again. They are fine if you have a known position down to half a mile or so in water, but their range is only a kilometer or so at best. One would have thought with whale 'song' being heard over hundreds of kilometers that engineers could have made these locators more powerful, but it possibly saved $100 per airframe to have pen torch sized locators with only 30 days power.

[David75]

>So they have calculated such an angle of 40 degrees for the last ping.

Not being an RF engineer I'd like to know what sort of error margin they have on that reading. My gut feel is that once you start taking into account a possibly damaged antenna and damaged transmitter (lower voltage maybe) the time to get a response might be a little longer. When the talk was around GPS packets in the ping and triangulation it seemed more solid.

I'm having a hard time seeing the satellite reading as the smoking gun that the media and SAR teams are making it out to be. Unless there is another source we aren't being told about.

[snowfalcon2]

StormyKnight
Would the 40 degrees be determined by received signal strength as suggested?

That's an interesting picture but I'm not sure the signal strength method is the only method available for "triangulation" in this case. I'll outline some general methods that are used in various systems, commenting also on TelcoAG's posts at 07:39 and 09:02 UTC today:

1. The signal strength method is a possibility but I believe its accuracy may be rather poor.

2. Another possible method is to measure the signal timing differences from two satellites, if data from both are available ( "reversed GPS principle" as someone said).

3. A third method may be to utilize the "Time Alignment" procedure that is widely used in e.g. GSM. Here, the system makes a signal timing adjustment to align the arrival time of radio packets from each active transmitter so that they align with the time slots in the receiver's (the satellite) TDMA (time division multiplex) channel frame. This adjustment value is an indication of the transmitter-receiver distance and can be used to plot a circle where the transmitter is located. Use 2 satellites and you get two cross bearings, one north and one south.
The caveat with this method, hovever, is that it is normally used only when you actually establish a connection to send a payload. For a periodic "ping" you normally don't need to allocate a timeslot.

4. It is quite conceivable that the Inmarsat satellite can measure the "elevation angle" of the received signal directly. Newer satellites have narrow individual "spot beams" to increase capacity, and obviously the system can keep track of which beam is allocated to any particular transmission.

5. Finally, the "ping time" itself (i.e. the roundtrip delay), if measured with enough precision, tells the distance between transmitter and receiver and can conceivably be used to plot a range circle as with the time alignment method.

[Lazerdog]

A lot of weight is indeed being put on the sat pings. I hope the engineers have thoroughly checked for latency issues or time stamp errors to ensure everything is as it seems. There are a lot of protocol levels in that system.

[TCAS FAN]

Have just heard the Malaysian PM's statement on SKY, he indicated that the SSR transponder was switched off and Malaysian Air Defence primary radar data indicated a track change in a westerly direction, flying back over the Malaysian peninsula. If this is true, as its an Air Defence system, why were air defence assets not launched to intercept the contact?

[Sheep Guts]

Stormy,

You can see also from this chart that the 40 degree arc highlighted passes thru the southern tip of Veitnam. But they are negating that area now on their Military primary plots data ( which maybe erroneous). I'm sorry but I think they should keep concentrating on the South Veitnam coastline. The New Zealand oil rig worker is still not backing down from his observations.

[SaturnV]

With respect to ultimate flight path, one can create possible corridors after subtracting out the effective ranges of military radars of various governments in the region, and depending on whatever judgments one cares to make about how alert the operators were.

And sitting due south of the Maldives is Diego Garcia, possibly having the most powerful radars in the whole region, with a 360 field of view, whose operators are unlikely to be sleeping.

[ana1936]

There is only one INMARSAT covering ACARS coms over the Indian Ocean. It is IOR located at 64 degrees East, 35890km above the equator, as shown in the Malaysian diagram.

So angle (or equivalently distance) calculations must be being done by using just the one satellite.

I think their diagram shows that they have a very accurate method of calculating that distance. I understand that this can be done via ping latency but there may be other methods.

The distance from the satellite so calculated has given them the 40 degrees altitude as shown. I calculate that this equates to 4840km distance at sea-level around the earth from the point directly below the satellite.

[StormyKnight]

Stormy,

You can see also from this chart that the 40 degree arc highlighted passes thru the southern tip of Veitnam. But they are negating that area now on their Military primary plots data ( which maybe erroneous). I'm sorry but I think they should keep concentrating on the South Veitnam coastline. The New Zealand oil rig worker is still not backing down from his observations.

Somewhere on the 40 degree arc was the last sat communication at 8:11am local time (daylight - sunrise was 7:22am in Kuala Lumpur Sunrise and Sunset for Malaysia ? Kuala Lumpur ? March 2014 (http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=122&month=3&year=2014&obj=sun&afl=-11&day=1))

Vietnam is further East so the sun would have been up even earlier.

[despegue]

Although it often looks like it, this is NOT the Daily Mail discussion forum, but a PROFESSIONAL FLIGHT CREW forum.

Please refrain from commenting if not flightcrew or other aviation professional.:mad:

[Airbanda]

Although it often looks like it, this is NOT the Daily Mail discussion forum, but a PROFESSIONAL FLIGHT CREW forum.

Please refrain from commenting if not flightcrew or other aviation professional.

Absolutely agree iro technical stuff about the aircraft etc. Given scope of this story there's plenty of room for all sorts of other comment whether about history, politics and linguistics or tech background in satellites and radio.

[brika]

US sources are aware of this and have dismissed it as anything significant.

[Sheep Guts]

That's right stormy from the wreckage not flying.

[Weary]

If this is true, as its an Air Defence system, why were air defence assets not launched to intercept the contact?

TCAS FAN - what makes you so sure they weren't?
As I said many, many posts ago, that particular chain of events could very easily lead to one very unpalatable outcome - one that no country would want to admit to. Such a scenario would best be subsequently handled by having everybody search on one area, whilst you clean up the mess in another.

[Tom Bangla]

Re: the tailgating theory. What's the max separation the tailgater can have from the tailgatee, horizontally and vertically, to appear on radar as a single a/c?

[TelcoAUS]

Hello! I'm a telecommunications architect from Australia. I don't work in the aviation industry, so I will endeavor to only discuss components pertinent to my expertise. If anything that I say is incorrect, please notify me so that I can update my correspondence to reflect this.

Both TelcoAG and snowfalcon2 appear to be on the money. Specifically, snowfalcon2 posted:

3. A third method may be to utilize the "Time Alignment" procedure that is widely used in e.g. GSM. [snip]
The caveat with this method, hovever, is that it is normally used only when you actually establish a connection to send a payload. For a periodic "ping" you normally don't need to allocate a timeslot.

By my own admission, I am not familiar with the TDMA signalling used on the Inmarsat-C communications platform, but it is my understanding that the signalling channels are also TDMA, meaning that it is highly likely that delta-T between timeslot allocations for handshaking as received by the two birds is how the speculative great circles have been generated.

4. It is quite conceivable that the Inmarsat satellite can measure the "elevation angle" of the received signal directly. Newer satellites have narrow individual "spot beams" to increase capacity, and obviously the system can keep track of which beam is allocated to any particular transmission.

Spot beams tend to be focused over areas where capacity constraint becomes an issue. Shaped beams (covering greater surface area) are used over sparely populated areas (such as oceans) because of the lower capacity requirements in these areas and the lack of business case for cost recovery in investing in additional hardware and power requirements on the space platform to accommodate underutilized transponders.

There has been a lot of speculation in the thread regarding the use of the SATCOM on the AC to communicate with ground crew in a hypothetical scenario where the person or people who have intervened in the operation of the aircraft intended to land it. Whilst it is true that the airframe of an aircraft is a decent Faraday cage, a pair of 5W VHF radios with a small antenna near the window of the flight deck would be sufficient to establish voice communications with a ground crew.

[A A Gruntpuddock]

Is it just me or does that satellite diagram fail to support the 'flight into the Indian ocean' theory?

[ronca]

I'll guarantee you one thing though - every hour spent by an RF engineer to limit that range saves somewhere on the order of half a day's worth of ocean to cover.

This is an incredibly complex system with limited knowledge of all of the variables.

To describe the difficulty, it would be like me asking you to find out which cows your hamburger came from after visiting a random McDonalds. You could probably limit it down to a few slaughter houses, but you'd never be able to pinpoint the cows.

Thanks TelcoAg - I agree with you. Too many people are criticising those involved in the investigation for taking "too long" to figure out "probable outcomes" from the sparse data involved. This is a difficult and imprecise science - it takes a lot of skill, mathematical modelling and , yes, time, to make sensible deductions from the sparse information available. I would feel sure that there a lot of dedicated engineers (both inside and outside government organisations) who are putting in a lot of hours trying to figure things out. Let them do their job without levelling accusations at them that they ar intentionally hiding things.

[snowfalcon2]

Is there any valid reason why transponders can be switched off?
If not then all transponders should be armed and locked immediately so they cannot be switched off ever again!!

This has been discussed repeatedly during the last 24h but I'd like to summarize.

I have seen two reasons so far.
1. in case of equipment fire there has to be a means to cut electrical power to the equipment.
2. malfunction of the transponder sending out garbled signals that block the radar system and may create chaos for ATC.

Now, as the question is very likely to be addressed in the accident report,
how could these risks be mitigated?

Re (1), while I concur the fire risk is high priority, I think electronics design has made significant progress since the 777 was designed and certified in the early 90s. Power consumption is less, "design for safety" has improved, and it is becoming commonplace to design circuitry that monitors over-temperature and shuts down automatically. Just look at all effort done in electric cars nowadays. (Yes there have been some well publicized fires, but they mask the fact that in the vast majority of events the overtemp protection works. And a transponder draws far less power than an electric car.)

Re (2), unfortunately the type certification processes tend to hamper innovation and progress. But there are some potential relatively easy design fixes such as replacing "hard" power on/off switches with momentary reset buttons, such as e.g. in laptop computers.
Going one step furher one may have a networking between devices so that a shutdown or standby of the active transponder automatically turns on the redundant transponder, or at the very least sends a fault message on ACARS.

Considering the whole world's attention to this incident, it seems certifiers may come under some strong pressure to establish more tamper-proof datalinks in order to not let any more airliners vanish. The technology is already existing.

[SLFguy]

Please refrain from commenting if not flightcrew or other aviation professional.

This forum has mods.

You are not one of them.

[philipat]

I have operated SIN LHR for the last few years routing over KL, Port Blair then over Calcutta. The new info about this flight being flown over this similar route makes we wonder if it "tailgated" such a flight heading towards India.

SQ068 was speculated as being a possible "Shadow" many pages ago. But nobody ever confirmed its actual flight path that evening. This was not an amateur job, whatever happened, so I wouldn't rule that out.

[jimjim1]

The images do NOT show tracks.
The images do NOT show tracks.
The images do NOT show tracks.

The primary purpose of this post is to indicate using symmetry the location of the southern position line. It is a LONG way from anywhere.

The diagram shows a representation of an estimate of the two position lines (with uncertainty) described in the press conference as being the position lines indicated by the last received "ping".

Since the satellites are geostationary, that is above the equator, I have assumed that the two lines are symmetrically disposed about the equator.

The two lines are based on the PMs statement; "a northern corridor stretching approximately from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand", a *random* line between the two points (generated by Google Earth), and a southern copy of that line reflected in the equator.

The last image shows an additional alternate random position line between the two points. The white rectangle was drawn with the Google Earth "add polygon" tool with four points and the orange line with the "add path" tool with four points.

Please note:-


The images do NOT show tracks :-)))))

Hopefully a mathemetician will be along in a minute to explain the correct shape of the lines.

Two estimated position lines for the LAST "ping".

http://i783.photobucket.com/albums/yy118/jimjim146/Helicopter/malasia/malasia-position-850.png



Northern

http://i783.photobucket.com/albums/yy118/jimjim146/Helicopter/malasia/malasia-position-north-850.png



Southern

http://i783.photobucket.com/albums/yy118/jimjim146/Helicopter/malasia/malasia-position-south-850.png



Alternate northern - showing an alternative estimated line.

http://i783.photobucket.com/albums/yy118/jimjim146/Helicopter/malasia/malasia-position-north-alt-850.png


Higher resolution versions are available at (hopefully):-
http://i783.photobucket.com/albums/yy118/jimjim146/Helicopter/malasia

[Rory166]

I have started a new thread in Spectorors Balcony for those of us who are not Professional Flightcrew to ask questions and speculate. Hopefully that will reduce the number of posts here and make the thread more useful.

[CogSim]

A quick update to keep us focused:

Official Confirmed

01:07 Last routine engine data transmission
XX:XX ACARS disabled
01:17 Sign off Subang ATC
01:21 Xpndr switched off (near IGARI)
01:21 Malasian military PSR picks up MH370 at IGARI
XX:XX MH370 moves towards VAMPI and then towards GIVAL
02:15 MH370 turns towards IGREX and is lost on Malasian military PSR
08:11 Last ACARS handshake signal detected

Official Unconfirmed

08:11 A/C somewhere between border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand
08:11 A/C somewhere between Indonesia and the southern Indian ocean

Unofficial Unconfirmed

XX:XX Altitude excursions at IGARI of unidentified PSR target (leak, via NYT)

Rumors

Everything else

[Sheep Guts]

What I am saying Stormy is that final ping to the Satellite at 8:11 am came from the wreckage in the South China off Veitnam. Which is on the 40 degree line. It doesn't show up on your picture because it's faded. But I saw it when Jim Clancy showed his picture in front cameras this afternoon after the news conference.

[3rd_ear]

The pilot thickens.

Just out of curiosity, is there any public record of the last known conversation beyond the "Roger that" bit we've been allowed to know of? What was being acknowledged by that phrase?

[philip2412]

Nigel post 3922
once again,so it`s understandable for everybody.
Your guess is the same 1 was thinking about LAST evening.
Could it be a long planned revenge for OBL?

[ana1936]

Thanks jimjim1

The corridors should be along a large circle of radius 4840 km (as measured on the Earth's surface) centred on a point on the equator at 64 degrees east.

This is the point below the INMARSAT IOR which has been doing the receiving of pings.

I have not been able to draw postable diagrams yet these are close to yours.

The explanation for this is spread over several pages of previous posts by myself and several others especially including a photo of a map from the SAR authorities.

[Aireps]

(Sorry if this has been posted before)

In the New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-pilot-i-established-contact-with-plane-1.503464), an anonymous 777 pilot was quoted saying he had radio contact with MH730 on 121.5 MHz at 01:30LT (17:30Z), 8 mins after loss of radar contact. The NST report says that the pilot was over Vietnam, 30 mins ahead of MH730 with destination Narita, Japan. Data from Flightradar24 suggests that this flight in contact with MH730 may have been MH88 (http://www.flightradar24.com/2014-03-07/17:18/12x/MAS88/2d805c5).

MH88 on Flightradar24 (http://s27.postimg.org/b1rcmveqb/Screen1352.jpg)

The MH88 pilot said to NST that he was sure he was talking to the co-pilot of MH370.

[Serendipity88]

Do I rightly recall that a friend of the Captain met him through 'political activism?'

If so, what exactly was meant by that? Does it mean that the guy handed out leaflets at his local supermarket against cutting down trees? Or was he a fully fledged campaigner for any one of a number of contraversial/extremist organisations whose names hardly need to be spelt out?

In the light of current developments, I can't believe this isn't a focus by someone, somewhere; it seems to have never been more relevant. Or - given the speculation by some about planesnatching, installing 'dirty bombs' and the like, is the extent of his extracurricular actvities too alarming for us to know the details?

Conversely if his activities were only small fry, I'd expect his family to want to see this cleared up.

[ana1936]

Sheep Guts

The south china sea is on the 40 degree (satellite altitude) line as you say.

However, it is not included in the final 8:11am locations (marked in red on the Malaysian photo) because that area is also covered by another INMARSAT doing ACARS coms (called POR which is over the Pacific).

If the plane had ended up there then the pings would also have been picked up by POR. Obviously they were not hence the corridors start West of south-east asia.

You can see a map of INMARSAT coverage back a few pages or just search on google.

[andrasz]

As the current thinking is moving away from an accident to a willful act, all the possible scenarios have one thing in common: they require a good deal of planning and preparation with nothing left to chance, and the kind of impeccable timing that one can see in a Mission: Impossible movie. Such preparation needs both time and money, and likely involved a number of people. It is very clear that any such planning must have involved this particular flight, as a number of key parameters (eg. takeoff time, initial flight path, fuel endurance, etc.) are unique to this flight only. I think it is also no coincidence that a moonless sky was chosen.

The key emerging question is why this particular flight would have been chosen as the target of such a massive investment and effort. I can think of several countries in the region where security procedures are much more lax (speaking of experience, will say no more), I can think of several airports on the border of oceanic zones where it is much easier to slip away from primary radar, etc.

Clearly understanding the motives is the key to the puzzle, as it is drifting away from being a purely aviation matter to something of much broader implications.

[mseyfang]

Although it often looks like it, this is NOT the Daily Mail discussion forum, but a PROFESSIONAL FLIGHT CREW forum.

Please refrain from commenting if not flightcrew or other aviation professional.

With all respect, I beg to differ. I've been following this thread since its inception and some of the more insightful and helpful posts have come from people who are not in the aviation industry. This is such an unusual event that the normal rules don't really apply. If someone with knowledge of satellite telecommunications wants to chime in with their particular expertise, I welcome their opinions. We've had a detective comment on investigative issues that have been helpful. I've even seen a few posts from admitted SLF (a/k/a the people who pay the bills) that were thoughtful and constructive to the discussion.

This incident is highly unusual and I welcome posts from anyone who can help shed some light on the situation whether they're in the industry or not.

[pat_karl]

Correct me if wrong, but could the plane have landed or crash landed with some systems still active along that 40 degrees relative angle extrapolated through Inmarsat/plane TX-RX range-calc and continued to ping the satellite while on the ground?
How often does the pinging occurs?
Since it seems possible to judge movement with a single radio reference only by measuring changes in distance from the satellite thus impossible if flying along an equidistant path (40 degrees in this case), could it be the plane wasn't even moving at all? Is the Inmarsat ACARS system on the 777 active while on battery power or does it needs engines or APU to be powered?

[hogey74]

Given recent developments, I am now of the opinion that some ideas and theories should be referred to relevant authorities rather than disseminated via this site. I'm sure that the relevant people are quietly going about their business and that they know more than they're letting on. It seems prudent to now assist them by hesitating before communicating.

[Celestar]

Simple crewing question...that I think hasn't been discussed here yet.
Since when were both pilots rostered on MH370 flight? Was it long term planning random assignation, specific request of one or both pilot or was it a last minute crew assignation decided by Crew planning?
In case of fool play, which is highly suspected, we can guess that whatever happened to MH370, it has required serious planning and preparation.
This could at least give an indication if pilots could be involved or not.

[Pace]

I do not think a wilful act other than a head case individual or even crew member stacks up!
Any organised terrorist group would have claimed their prize by now as not to do so would be unproductive in their misplaced eyes to their cause.

More likely this was a case of massive depressurisation. Note the private jet accident which flew for miles with all the crew and PAX inert in their seats.
a massive decompression would have accounted for the lack of radio communications, attempt to change course, deviation off track and eventual crash in the Sea.

Seems to fit the events more than some high tech terrorist attack

[ETOPS]

Just been running the FR24 playback of the relevant time.

Three flights along the route which are possible to tag along with given the timing.

THY67, EK349 and SQ68.

The 45,000ft report is from RMAF mil radar and I'm given to understand these are not pinpoint readings thus 40,000 would be more sensible and achievable..

[TWT]

Those concentric circles with degrees on them on the map denote 'angle of elevation' for a ground observer at sea level to assist with positioning a flat antenna on some terminals.As you get closer to the satellite the angle increases.The zero circle denotes the point at which the satellite will be on,or very slightly under the horizon.Given that the satellites are in geostationary orbit ( approx 36,000 kms above the equator) the difference in the elevation angle at 35,000 feet instead of sea level will be negligble.

Which means that you could probably use a hand held satphone out of a western facing window on the aircraft.


mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Sheep Guts]

Ok thanks for the info Stormy and Ana. Will bet back to be books. What's missing is the range rings for the other pings in between they haven't given us. Surely that would give a better picture. It is not plausible it flew to Kazakstan. Pakistan and Indian radars would have seen them for sure.

[mommus]

So the options with the current information (which will undoubtedly change again) would be a hijacking, particularly one where the hijackers demanded a reroute - which would mean the plane could be parked at an airbase somewhere in central Asia, or a situation like Ethiopian Airlines 961 but with an even worse outcome.

If the pilot took it upon himself to change course, what could his motivation be? If he was suicidal, surely he'd have nosedived it somewhere along the planned route or into a prominent building/city? Not flown thousands of miles out into the Indian Ocean.

If he was attempting to land somewhere else, why? to sell the plane? I can't imagine the market for stolen intercontinental jets is huge, and most of the components could be tracked if it was broken up.

I can't imagine a Malaysian pilot wanting to claim asylum anywhere either.

[CogSim]

A 772 Driver has confirmed that it would not be physically possible to get up to FL450 with a full load and 7 hours fuel minimum on board. In fact, I would be very surprised if it could even get to 400? 772 Drivers please advise.

It's not clear where those altitude data came from, especially now we know that the Satellite was NOT receiving such data?

The altitude excursion data was attributed to leaked Malaysian PSR returns on the unidentified target (presumed MH370) at IGARI sometime shortly after transponder switched off.

[StormyKnight]

What I am saying Stormy is that final ping to the Satellite at 8:11 am came from the wreckage in the South China off Veitnam. Which is on the 40 degree line. It doesn't show up on your picture because it's faded. But I saw it when Jim Clancy showed his picture in front cameras this afternoon after the news conference.

What would be good is if we had the intermediate ping details & times....

Using the 40 degree arc, it does put it a long way away, especially if India did not see it.

[MikeBanahan]

If there is a conspiracy involving collaborators on the ground, it has already been pointed out that satellite phone contact would probably work from inside the plane, especially near a window. A small hand-held VHF set would be problematic and give very restricted reliable range of miles or tens of miles unless you were lucky.

Whilst the use of a satellite phone would leave you open to eventually being tracked / triangulated that would almost certainly take days to occur as the satellite operators would have no particular reason to suspect that any given call was even remotely related to the missing aircraft.

From the flight deck, as may well be the case, HF radio would probably be your best bet. Picking a suitable channel, you are highly unlikely to be overheard and HF is notoriously hard to triangulate unless significant assets are coordinated and expecting your transmissions. This would give a potential reliable range of one or two thousand miles, coupled maybe with a switch to VHF when in closer range. It's easy to overestimate the SIGINT resources that are out there and kid yourself that 'everything is monitored' but it's vastly more likely that that is simply not true. And even if it were true, your goals have probably been accomplished long, long before anyone realises that a couple of random / unexpected transmissions were you and joins up the dots.

Simple portable HF stations are ridiculously easy to set up as anyone with a comms background (as I have myself) will know, ditto VHF. It can all be operated from the back of a truck and put together for a few hundred dollars.

[James7]

Pace ...More likely this was a case of massive depressurisation.

I heard on the news conference that systems were switched off / deactivated at different times, pointing to the fact they were deliberately turned off.

That would be 2 radios transmitting data, transponder, CPDLC, SAT, ADS etc..

[Above The Clouds]

If the aircraft was deviated from its route intentionally, and then as suggested flown in close proximity to another aircraft to avoid detection the satellite pings that have been recorded could be traced to other transponding aircraft on the same route, military primary radar traces could then be observed for a target break away and a possible new route calculated.

[StormyKnight]

Why have they not filled in the arc between the north & south arc. Would this not also be a possible location for the final 8:11am ping?

[dizzylizzy]

Regardless if the cabin crew used portable oxy or not given the threat was at the controls it would have been just as easy to eliminate the cabin crew.

[ana1936]

Thanks jimjim and stormy

It is very clear to me from the photo of the Malaysian SAR map

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiwPWMOCYAAG3ZC.jpg:large

cross referenced with the INMARSAT coverage map

http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/I-3-satellite-coverage-November-2013.jpg

that they are doing the calculations on the basis of of only one INMARSAT being in contact with the plane (at the end).

Only the Indian Ocean (64E) INMARSAT was involved in the last ping(s) and so they have ruled out areas (on the 40 degree circle) that overlap with coverage by POR in the Pacific and AOR-E over the Atlantic to the West.

[MATELO]

The captain's home simulator is interesting. He could have practised all the scenarios large numbers of times. The plane handling, the systems management, the use of airspace, the approach and landing at some obscure destination etc.

As a captain, if he didn't know how to do that already then it would be a scary ride alongside him.


We may never know what happened on board this plane. If somebody can switch off the ACARS and Transponder then they may have the ability to switch off the CVR and FDR.

The Indian Ocean is a pretty big dumping ground and would need some sort off debris to identify a place to start searching.

I still reckon we are not being told the whole picture of what the authorities know, but if keeping quiet, means the possibility of getting back "hostages" then they have to do it.

[daikilo]

I think the use of the term arc is possibly better that corridor. The two arcs, if I have understood correctly, are the result of "triangulating" data captured by two satelites using time codes. What is not clear is whether the last "ping" cannot be precisely positioned on these arcs which then possibly means that they are indeed corridors (i.e. arcs with a width corresponding to precision, with the points sighted being the limits of accuracy at say 2 std deviations.

Assuming the aircraft was flying in a roughly constant direction, I suggest that the actual last position can be estimated with a further arc being when the a/c ran out of fuel or landed and was shut-down, which clearly must have been around or after 00:11Z. This suggests it could well be towards the western end of the northern corridor.

[seaskimmer]

the speculation is now back on a possible terrorist act, but making an aircraft disappear without spectacle doesn't seem to be the MO for radical terrorists.

[mseyfang]

Simple crewing question...that I think hasn't been discussed here yet.

Since when were both pilots rostered on MH370 flight? Was it long term planning random assignation, specific request of one or both pilot or was it a last minute crew assignation decided by Crew planning?
In case of foul play, which is highly suspected, we can guess that whatever happened to MH370, it has required serious planning and preparation.
This could at least give an indication if pilots could be involved or not.


Good question and one investigators should looking into.

From a purely legal angle, this incident is still in limbo as there is technically not yet an "accident" to investgate. ICAO gives primary responsibility for an accident investigation to the country in whose territory the aircraft came down in with "party to" rights guaranteed to the nations of registry and manufacture. If the incident occurred in international waters, primary investigatory responsibility is on the nation of aircraft registry with party to the investigation rights guaranteed to the nation of aircraft manufacture. From that perspective, the only two nations guaranteed to be part of the investigation are the US and Malaysia. Unfortunately, the latest satellite telemetry has caused even greater uncertainty over the issue of which nation will have primary responsibility for conducting the investigation. Moreover, it is not altogether clear that there has been an accident. KUL-ALA/UUAA (Almaty, Kazakhstan) was well within the range of the aircraft as fuelled. Until there is wreckage found, this matter will remain in limbo.

[StormyKnight]

Only the Indian Ocean (64E) INMARSAT was involved in the last ping(s) and so they have ruled out areas (on the 40 degree circle) that overlap with coverage by POR in the Pacific and AOR-E over the Atlantic to the West.

Cheers that does explain it. Although on my original map, the gap is not symmetrical around the equator as I would have expected.

[snowfalcon2]

My guess is that there would be at least one passenger or crew with a mobile device not in flight mode. If this were the case, then could it's signal be tracked as the aircraft flew along and would the data be kept on file with telecommunication providers?

In theory, yes. The phone may try to perform a location update, especially if it senses a new network such as at a border crossing. But (and referring to e g China Mobile statements) if the location update request fails the home country network will probably not be notified. Most such requests probably fail due to weak radio connection.

In this case there may be a trace recorded in the visited network's database. But since such unsuccessful requests are from the visited network's viewpoint just nuisance data taking up storage space, it is doubtful if it's stored for any length of time. Network operators probably will not make public exactly how this works in each network, but it is conceivable that the accident investigators can be allowed to sift through this data if it exists.

[Above The Clouds]

ana1963

Ping return time to satellite is a known speed therefore distance can be calculated.

[ana1936]

The two "corridors" are defined as follows.

Draw a circle on the earth with centre 64 degrees East on the equator and radius 4840 km as measured on the earth's surface.

(This is the 40 degree circle from satellite IOR).

Then erase those parts of the circle which are under the coverage of satellites POR (to the east) and AOR=E (to the West).

See coverage map here
http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/I-3-satellite-coverage-November-2013.jpg

This will leave you with the two arcs marked red on the Malaysian map.

[BARKINGMAD]

"If they can lose a 777, it doesn't bode well for them picking up a bomb laden hostile fighter."

And we all know who lost FOUR medium jets in their backyard at the start of this millennium, don't we???!!!!

The sheer and utter arrogance leaves me bemused if not slightly annoyed!!!:ugh:

[Dexta]

Not sure if this is possible (only fly domestically) if this was well planned, couldn't the pilot/hijacker have already entered a flight plan into the system earlier that day, then when at the cross over from one FIA to another, turn off the xpndr, change course and altitude, then fly along for a bit (with all other communication turned off) then at another FIA boundary call along the lines of "xxx centre, this is embraer 107 at FL290 for xxx, we are experiencing xpndr issues..." The controller looks up the flight plan and pilot flies along giving position reports etc under the previously entered flight plan call sign? Would the new controller check with the previous region? The best way to hide a tree is in a forest, they simply became another flight with a malfunctioning xpndr (unless they can mod the hex code or just run mode c) and proceed normally. What other flight plans or flights just happened to be going the same direction on the same day and time?
As good a theory as any or completely off the mark?

[ZeBedie]

Going back to reports of mobile phones ringing - maybe that was when the aircraft was still airbourne, over land and after it was overdue at destination?

[philipat]

We may never know what happened on board this plane. If somebody can switch off the ACARS and Transponder then they may have the ability to switch off the CVR and FDR. They can't (Easily) do that BUT the CVR only records 2 hours and the DFDR may simply tell us, roughly, what we already know.

So we may never get to the facts of what actually happened and why??

[TelcoAUS]

MikeBanahan (http://www.pprune.org/members/193686-mikebanahan)

If there is a conspiracy involving collaborators on the ground, it has already been pointed out that satellite phone contact would probably work from inside the plane, especially near a window. A small hand-held VHF set would be problematic and give very restricted reliable range of miles or tens of miles unless you were lucky.

I respectfully disagree - I've operated scanners on commercial aircraft and received VHF/UHF simplex @5W from hundreds of KM away. I understand that the aircraft implies some challenging RF attenuation characteristics, but it would be entirely possible to establish simplex VHF using a small dipole attached to the window of the flight deck.

I cannot, however, disagree with the fact that it would be possible to establish communications using a satellite phone from the flight deck.

There are a few choices of satellite phone providers: in a theoretical scenario where the person or people operating the aircraft after its disappearance communicate with ground crew using satellite technology, only a few providers become applicable:

Iridium: Iridium operate a large constellation of satellites in low earth orbit - if the parties in question used Iridium to communicate, it is highly likely that the phone was in visibility of multiple satellites. The number of satellites in the Iridium constellation would make it an excellent choice for someone who NEEDED comms with ground crew.

Thuraya: Thuraya operate a number of satellites in geosynchronous orbit, meaning that establishing a link from the flight deck window would require the satellite to be positioned correctly, or for the aircraft to be maneuvered into a position where line of site is achievable.

GlobalStar: GlobalStar has been plagued by network problems and have operational issues. They would be a poor choice for ground communications and anyone who needed communications for successful completion would be unlikely to choose GlobalStar.

[ana1936]

Next steps for tonight/today ...

Now we have the two red arcs.

There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.

[kcockayne]

Dexta

Highly unlikely.
The ATCO would have checked adjacent ATCCS to discover why the info had not been passed by them.
I cannot imagine that he would simply have accepted such a flight without investigation.

[threemiles]

Next steps for tonight/today ...

Now we have the two red arcs.

There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.

Assuming the plane has flown straight. If it has flown zig-zag or circles that would not help.

[James7]

Previous post removed about ELT.

I will tone it down.

Complete lack of any ELT, emergency locators, would mean that the aircraft is at the bottom of the ocean or landed somewhere but the crew subdued and not able to activate any of the beacons.

These of course could be used in the air but no evidence of their use.

[RifRaf3]

Those without any experience in tailgating are allowed to post whilst those with actual experience and politely skeptical are modded out.

Military radars are extremely sensitive and a B777 is a huge target compared to a stealth fighter. Tailgating would depend on slant range and it's unlikely that you would get across India via an air route without being detected by one of many military radars. You might get by an ATC radar that depended solely on transponders.

[tuj]

Malaysia PM: Malaysia Airlines probe refocusing on passengers, crew - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)
Air traffic controllers outside Kuala Lumpur said they lost contact with the plane on March 8 at 1:30 a.m. local time, about 45 minutes after takeoff. The Prime Minister said its last communication with a satellite was at 8:11 a.m. the same day, but its precise location at the time was unclear.
Investigators are using such signals to determine how long and far it flew after it went incommunicado.


Flew on for nearly 7 hours? Is this a red herring? The newest search box is HUGE...surely someone could narrow this down?

[daikilo]

ANA1936

Of course, how stupid of me, just the IOR satelite!

So intersect that with a fuel/flt time arc from the last "known" point and, assuming the various pings suggest a constant track, it is indeed likely to be toward the western end of the northern arc.

But someone knows the arcs of each of those pings ... and the northern arc in my opinion would remain at roughly the same distance from the satelite whilst the southern could well vary in distance considerably.

[StormyKnight]

May I invite anyone who wants to post anything other than hard information to our new and exciting chat about MH370 on the spectators balcony.

It can be found here -> http://www.pprune.org/spectators-balcony-spotters-corner/536056-mh370-chat-speculation.html

[Foray Access]

@ana1936: There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.

You ought to add one more constraint: erase any portion of the shaded circles and arcs which would require crossing a known radar range. While we can't be sure the radar operator was alert and inquisitive on the night in question, we can be sure that data will be reviewed and analyzed the same way the Malaysian radar data was shared with investigators.

I personally would put my next paycheck on that analysis already being done by now.

[Theoretical]

Full disclosure: I have no relationship to planes so I bow down to you gods, I am but a lowly analyst who has studied threat groups as part of my work.

Any organised terrorist group would have claimed their prize by now as not to do so would be unproductive in their misplaced eyes to their cause.

I wouldn't take this off the table so fast. In this day and age people seem to only remember the kinetic actions of these threat groups. Terror groups work on fear which by the looks of things this event has avoided. Maybe the passengers are now hostages who will be used as bargaining chips to trade for captured comrades. Maybe this could happen again which then would put people on edge.

Perhaps they are waiting to get into a secure location before making any comment or taking their next action. Particularly in the short term there is no rush to claim responsibility.

[RifRaf3]

The Malay Peninsula is not remotely as covered by military radar as India, but I agree that there's some explaining to do in this case. I've flown over both places hundreds of times and there is no comparison. India is on constant alert because of certain neighbours and has a vastly bigger air force.

[ana1936]

Thanks everyone.

I agree that the simple plan above to locate the plane does assume not many zig zags in the last 6 hours and it does not take account of a path needing to avoid radar.

However if you assume the plane goes fairly straight for the last six hours, covering say about 4000km from the Andaman sea, then there are only two final resting places on the red arcs/corridors.

They seem to be a northern one at 37N, 68E in northern Pakistan and a southern one at 25S, 91E about 2000km west of Perth.

The northern destination seems slightly more attractive but goes through Indian radar coverage.

The southern one seems a very sad place to end up.

[tichy]

Have only spent a little time around satellite but those arcs dont look like anything ive seen before. The inmarsat reports ive seen shows the bgan data going through a specific cell number not from some arc?

[SMOC]

Apologies, has the actual amount of fuel on board at departure been confirmed?

As carriers often carry CAT B fuel to China so double the the normal amount.

[philipat]

The Malay Peninsula is not remotely as covered by military radar as India, but I agree that there's some explaining to do in this case. I've flown over both places hundreds of times and there is no comparison. India is on constant alert because of certain neighbours and has a vastly bigger air force. For which reason also, I find the "Tailgating" theory unpersuasive on balnce to get a silent 772 right over the sub-continent? The Southern route seems more plausible. If 1000 Km West of PER, wouldn't that already be getting tracked by Australian Military eyes? Quite apart from the huge Australian/NSA tracking station up on the Northern Coast of WA?

[TelcoAUS]

philipat (http://www.pprune.org/members/263242-philipat)

In Australia maybe. Does not explain how a 772 could fly right across Peninsular Malaysia entirely unchallenged.

Given the spectrum allocations granted to JORN, the enforcement of that spectrum with Australia, especially north of the receivers and the publically understated capabilities of the system, it's safe to say that, unless JOR2 was down for operational maintenance at the time of the incident, then the aircraft was nowhere near the operational airspace at the time the incident occurred.

[StormyKnight]

For which reason also, I find the "Tailgating" theory unpersuasive on balnce to get a silent 772 right over the sub-continent? The Southern route seems more plausible. If 1000 Km West of PER, wouldn't that already be getting tracked by Australian Military eyes?

You can guarantee, they have already looked as soon as Military Radar tracking was mentioned & a radar plot discussed....at least I hope so :rolleyes:

[onetrack]

That was 1000NM West of PER, not 1000km. A rather substantial difference.

If the aircraft went South, it would be because there was extra fuel uploaded to make Africa.

There's only two airstrips in the Northern Indian Ocean (besides DG) - CCK (8000') and XCH (6900').
Both of these are well-established Australian territories with top-class communications, and I'm sure we'd have heard by now if a stray B777 rolled up to either. Unless it was a weekend, of course. :)

[TelcoAUS]

tichy (http://www.pprune.org/members/341350-tichy)

Have only spent a little time around satellite but those arcs dont look like anything ive seen before. The inmarsat reports ive seen shows the bgan data going through a specific cell number not from some arc?


Inmarsat's BGAN network is on a different satellite platform than the one which provides backhaul for ACARS.

[philipat]

That was 1000NM West of PER, not 1000km. A rather substantial difference.

Beg pardon and stand corrected. But the question remains the same. Would that area be controlled from Australia or Diego Garcia?

[RifRaf3]

Could a B777 pilot please explain why the alleged 50 odd pax empty seats (weight restricted) MZFW occured for only a medium haul flight. Does this mean an unusually high cargo load? I've only experienced this restriction into headwinds on flights of twice the duration in larger types.

[ana1936]

One more brief observation.

Even if the plane had twice as much fuel as needed to get to Beijing, it still stopped (one way or another) within 30 minutes of 8:11am.

So it did not get further South than (2000km west) off Perth and it did not get further North (or West) than Pakistan/Himalayas.

How do we know that?

Because the pings stopped then and it is highly unlikely that the (new) ``pilot'' would have suddenly worked out that s/he'd overlooked pings and worked how to stop them.

So 6 hours from the Andaman sea is as far as you can get by 8:11am.

And to also be on those arcs puts you at those limits.

Furthermore you can not get out of range of IOR with 30 mins of those places.

So the plane did not go on to Kazakhstan or Antarctica, even if it had enough fuel.

[nitpicker330]

Let's assume the Aircraft landed somewhere and was de-powered when the Pinging stopped..


When they power up the 777 the pinging may well start again, also the ACARS May default back to switched on after a new power up cycle?

I hope we are watching for new pings/ACARS connections?

[LongTimeInCX]

Would any experienced formation pilots care to speculate on the ease with which a twin-aisle passenger jet could be hand-flown for 4 hours in close formation with another?

Not only could one intercept at night, providing it was VMC, but a relatively safe join up could be established, and whether one chose to remain directly astern, or 5/7o'clock to avoid visual detection from the lead aircraft, and ideally slightly low, it is quite easily do-able with the lead aircraft displaying good reference lights.

So in short, intercept, join up and loose trail formation keeping very easy.
(helps to have had at least some practice, overshoot and lack of appreciation of closure rates are a killer!)

[daikilo]

ANA1936

Your maths is near perfect, and then you add an assumption that someone-one on the ground (at night) would have tried to prevent the plane crossing their airspace. Stick to the maths, I am with you on the approximate final northern destination.

[calypso]

I would not dismiss the Helios theory all together. Explosive decompression takes out some of the kit in the E&E bay, including transponder and ACARS, most pax and crew incapacitated. Some survivor gets on portable O2 and gains access to the FD. They try to push a few buttons but don't know how use the radios or fly the jet. They try a few turns and climbs and descents, typing stuff into the FMC, eventually portable 02 runs out and the jet continues on last track until fuel exhaustion over the indian ocean. Even with the autopilot off a 777 that remains in trim should remain airborne without any inputs for many hours. I don't fly the 777 but relevant questions would be : is transponder (1 or 2) in the same bus as essential kit that drives the ACARS, is the pax O2 in the same bus? what would happen under a variety of electrical malfunctions if appropriate actions where not carried out by the crew? for example loss of essential batt bus. There are sure to be combinations that take out all comms (even if some could have been regained by the crew if they had been able to).



It seems more plausible than a super elaborate suicide plan. I could (try to) understand a suicide as an act of madness but going for hours and hours dodging radar to take 200 souls with you to a far away oceanic grave. It seems far too elaborate and contrived.

As an act of terrorism it also seems contrived. if you wanted a big jet to carry an evil deed later on you could buy a big one in Russia while keeping a pretty low profile. If you wanted a high profile why has nobody credible claimed the action?

Technical and human factors explanations must be completely discarded before going down the "James Bond villain" routes

[ekpilot]

As far as the standby passengers; do we know for sure whether the flight was limited by either? It would certainly suggest different culprits if the limitation was MZFW i.e. lots of/heavy cargo vs. a MLW limitation i.e. many tons extra fuel.
Just following our in-house detective's thought on eliminating various scenarios...

[Token Bird]

Seems to be lots of focus on the Captain. So much so that I heard the following phrase on BBC Radio 2 - "They are searching the pilot's home". I am assuming they mean the Captain, as the press still have the quaint habit of calling Captain and First Officer, Pilot and Co-Pilot.

So have the press forgotten there is a second pilot at all? I assume they are probably investigating the first officer as well, but BBC don't deem it necessary to mention this.

I think people are barking up the wrong tree about the Captain and his home sim. I doubt that is relevant.

So there were some allegations about the First Officer letting people into the cockpit before. Was this an isolated incident or did it happen more than once? Is it possible that, if the FO was known to be amenable to cockpit visitors, that one of his flights was targetted by would-be hijackers for that very reason? The FO would not have to necessarily be 'in on it'.

[Mr A Tis]

FWIW, I think the public is way behind the curve of events. From what I can see, the Malaysian Press conference only came clean with what they know, after a statement by Inmarsat. Based on this information they have now popped around to the crews houses - I can't believe for one minute that this has not already been done.
I can't see any official statement on the cargo or just how much fuel was uplifted. If it was tankered, the 777 could fly maybe 13 hours or so. The cargo & fuel must be known- so why not release that information?

[RifRaf3]

Having done real formating in a fighter under a bomber in that very area to cover fighter movements between bases while the bomber was on a 'navex' it would not be easy to maintain the very close formation required in a large a/c if exposed to military radar. It very much depends on range. In my case the bomber was roughly twice the area, but I still had to fly directly under its wing approaching the military radars and they were primitive by today's standards.
I'm deeply skeptical that it could be done over India without 2 blips being discriminated and in two large a/c of roughly the same size for 4 hours.

[nitpicker330]

I agree! What happens when the lead Aircraft flys into cloud?? Not easy to formate in IMC at night when you aren't trained for it. Almost impossible I'd say.

[runswick]

Only the Indian Ocean (64E) INMARSAT was involved in the last ping(s) and so they have ruled out areas (on the 40 degree circle) that overlap with coverage by POR in the Pacific and AOR-E over the Atlantic to the West.


I'm intrigued by the gap between the northern and southern corridors. The coverage maps clearly show this gap exists due to the overlap with POR. However the area of the gap would be at the very edge of coverage with POR, with the satellite very close to the horizon. It is not inconceivable transmissions in this region would only be picked up by IOR. In particular a ditched aircraft in the water may well have difficulty transmitting to a satellite close to the horizon.

From what I see there is a distinct case to make for joining the northern and southern arcs which would once again raise the possibility of the plane being in the South China Sea area. It may have flown a tortuous route to get back to the area it first started - but thats no more unlikely then it ending up over China.

So are the Malaysian SAR authorities being too quick to cease the search to the East of Malaysia?

NB I would love to see similar 'corridors' for the various pings between 1.30-8.11am. This would help rule in/out various flight paths being speculated.

[onetrack]

@Mr philipat - We cover a pretty substantial chunk of air around the Earth with Australian control!

Melbourne | Airservices (http://www.airservicesaustralia.com/about/our-facilities/air-traffic-service-centres/melbourne/)

[SOPS]

And the fact that we all on here basically agreed almost a week ago it had flown to the west somewhere. But only today have the Malaysians have only formally admitted that to be true today.

[GQ2]

I agree the 'Tailgating' theory is do-able. Is it likely..? No. Too much organisation required to be in the right place at the right time. Way back at the beginning, as soon as the westerly Radar position was revealed, it was clear that the extended westerly flightpath headed for Somalia/Yemen and that a HJ was most likely. Both lawless areas with no ATC/Radar and an all oceanic flight to get there. A little dogleg to the south maybe, to avoid Ceylon. What killed the theory then, was the reported range. However, owing to fuel prices, the a/c may well have had a LOT of fuel on board than we all thought at first. Remember there were also 50 empty seats.... Of course, there were no Somalis on board, but it's an ideal place to take a big a/c without it immediately appearing all over the web. They could unload what they wanted and dump the a/c in the sea, - or just refuel it if they had another nefarious purpose in mind. I think dumping it is more likely.
Personally, I don't suspect the pilots. Whoever did this almost certainly managed to get through the door. The timing of the start of the incident is circumstantially suspicious. If the perps were after all or some of the passengers....there may be surprise happy-ending even yet. If they were after something in the hold....
I'd still like to know what the actual fuel available was.

[nitpicker330]

Yes agreed. I said before we need to know 2 things more:--

1/ Fuel on board at departure, this will be known by MH
2/ Cargo manifest, what were they carrying?

These things will hopefully already be known by the authorities, but based on the last week I'm not so sure....:eek:

[daikilo]

Woah, just because I suggest it probably could be done with practice does not imply that this is what I think happened.

Indeed, I do not, for now (I am currently on something close to the hypoxia or all dead and autopilot/autothrust flying the plane theories).

Indeed, the more I think of it as a concept, the more I would have expected the pilot to have landed the plane and the mobile phones to become active. That apparently didn't happen, so what did? Keep that for next time.

[davionics]

Okay, due to the lack of a publicly released cargo manifest...

If the flight was carrying a consigned gold cargo:
50pax * (75kg + 23kg) = 4900kg
Gold is approx US$13xx/oz,
4900kg = 172842oz, therefore,
172842 * 1300 = US$224.7mil

One could agree that this could provide ample motivation, and enough to buy inside help and some media whitewashing too. Valuable or sensitive cargo needs to be ruled out publicly. The aforementioned figures are for example only, and intended just to highlight the scope of wealth that can be transported on such an aircraft.

[vee1-rotate]

I'm finding it hard not to think this was all the pilots undertaking, going by the timing of events.

- ACARS was disabled as the aircraft crossed the Malaysian east coast.
- Aircraft continued on until TOC, whereby their last radio transmission was received as they were handed off to Vietnam? ATC
- Transponder then is switched off

So how has ACARS been disabled and the crew are carrying on as normal until TOC ? Unless someone was in the equipment bay.

[Theoretical]

But only today have the Malaysians have only formally admitted that to be true today.

Based on the dates of the leaks it would suggest military/government from other nations were aware much earlier. This is a compilation of classified information from multiple countries so how/when it is released is pretty significant.

[FE Hoppy]

A point to consider is that for each "ping" there will be a range calculation from the satellite. the most interesting ones are the first two and the last. The last will give final range but the first two along with the last known position will give an indication of heading or speed.

[litinoveweedle]

Some posters need to take a step back. There is absolutely a 0% (zero) chance this a/c entered Russian airspace. Did you forget about the Cessna-172 which was flown unchallenged across former Soviet Air Defense Identification Zone from Helsinki to Moscow, and successfully landed in Red Square?This was dated in 1987, one and half year before whole eastern block collided.

Today's Russia is different. Moreover with Russian/Ukrainian crisis ongoing, Russian military is on high level of alertness. And as you probably know, USAF are on air manoeuvres at Poland, close to Ukrainians borders (with AWACS) and Russia air force over Black sea. I would be highly sceptical to find out, that they missed target huge as 777, even if it was coming from not so exposed direction.

[TelcoAUS]

I'm intrigued by the gap between the northern and southern corridors. The coverage maps clearly show this gap exists due to the overlap with POR. However the area of the gap would be at the very edge of coverage with POR, with the satellite very close to the horizon. It is not inconceivable transmissions in this region would only be picked up by IOR. In particular a ditched aircraft in the water may well have difficulty transmitting to a satellite close to the horizon.

[snip]

NB I would love to see similar 'corridors' for the various pings between 1.30-8.11am. This would help rule in/out various flight paths being speculated. As much much as I'd also love to see these possibilities, the chances of InMarSat releasing both raw dumps of their telemetry and handshaking data, along with ultra-high resolution keplerian elements for the space platforms in orbit responsible for receiving the data, this will remain a mystery to the lay person: like me.

[buttrick]

It cannot be determined that the ACARS and IFF were switched off. Only that they failed to respond to interrogation or transmit data!

[RifRaf3]

I find the Northern route more credible with Myanmar the hole in the radar fence. They've then got very high ground to cover any intended Westward movement from the Indian radars. The altitude excursions probably indicate non pro pilots as VNAV is the more complicated mode, whist HDG SEL is adequate for LNAV using just a mobile or tablet FMC app. No need for a/c systems nav at all. I've got doubts that they made it unless the authorities in some country en-route were also in on it.

[litinoveweedle]

That's not the case. It seems that the aircraft did not send position reports as previously thought. INMARSAT and whomever (US gov't probably) were able to distinguish which satellite(s) were handshaking with the aircraft, but only to a degree that established an "arc". That arc goes North, toward the 'stans, or South, deeper into the Indian Ocean.

Even more, typically one satellite has more than one transponder and antenna systems directed to different locations, each with ellipsoid projection over the earth surface. And normally there is no distinction between informations received by different transponders on the same satellite, connected to the same system (ACARS data stream) So there is big chance, that more than one A/C path reconstruction would be possible - as in this case we have two.

[BlankBox]

http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/user_upload/public_information/2014/IDC_infrasound_MalaysianAirlines_MH370.pdf

IDC infrasound search for missing flight
Malaysian Airlines MH370

Summary
This brief report summarizes the analysis and findings using IMS infrasound data and IDC bulletins on
the search for the missing flight MH370 from Malaysian Airlines. The flight MH370 took-off from
Kuala Lumpur airport, Malaysia, on Friday 7 March at 16:41 GMT and was on route for Beijing, China.
It went missing within the first hour of flight (source: BBC).

Infrasound recordings from the IMS infrasound network and IDC bulletins are then searched for
potentially related information. The IMS infrasound network routinely detects commercial flight
taking off and landing from local airports.
However it should be noted that:
- Commercial planes in normal flight conditions are usually detected by IMS infrasound
stations only at close range (within about 100km from stations).
- The only reported commercial plane that could be tracked over large distances (across the
Atlantic) with an infrasound station was the Concorde as it was travelling as supersonic
speed. The Concorde was discontinued 10 years ago.
- For flight MH370 to be picked up by IMS infrasound network at regional or global distances,
it could mean that it crashed, exploded or disintegrated. However it would likely not be
possible to draw any definitive conclusion based on remote infrasound recordings alone..... see website for more..

...seeing as this was from Cocos ... what does this do to the "southern route" theory???

[daikilo]

Theoretical

I understand your logic, but the last info apparently came from Inmarsat.

In theory, they just input and output data, but they have had the bright idea to check if they had any data coming in which they did not tranmsit as it had no content. They seem to have found the needle in the haystack. Bravo Inmarstat.

[dmba]

I think he is assuming crew incapacitation in order to see if there is an innocent explanation...

[mixture]

Is any one else wondering about the Freescale Semiconductor Experts on board. 20 highly skilled engineers & developers of hi tech aircraft navigation & weapons systems with radar-cloaking capacity via "aeronautical hardware technology produced by Freescale" as reported in the press.

There is so much rampant speculation going on on this thread !

Go look up Freescale, they do a LOT more than aircraft related stuff.... they are a broad semiconductor company supplying and designing components from aircraft to computers to telephones to everything and anything in between.

Given China's status as a major manufacturing centre for many companies, its perhaps no surprise that bunches of engineers from a major semiconductor company fly there on a regular basis. Freescale have something like 18,000 employees.... sending 20 employees somewhere is no big deal !

Don't believe all the nonsense journalists publish, and certainly don't read too much into it !

[island_airphoto]

The "altitude excursions" that keep getting mentioned don't seem likely. I think between inaccurate primary radar and F-15 performance from a 777 I would have to go with the former.

[RifRaf3]

Flying into Gan or other islands ignores the fact that they have radars and eyes and know you are not a flight planned flight. It would be reported unless they were a perpetrator country and satellites would identify the a/c on the ground. It has to reach a rogue country like Somalia for cover if routing South of India and that's stretching it.

[captplaystation]

I am imagining that 777 has no fire detection/suppression in the E&E bay.

Somewhat wild guess (among many even wilder guesses) would suggest a slow undetected melting of various electrical components which sequentially disabled ACARS/Tpndr/ Comms / CrewO2/Control of pressurisation . . . is it possible that the depressurisation could have deprived the fire/smouldering of oxygen sufficiently to extinguish/halt the electrical carnage leaving the AP/FBW to continue serenely in Marie Celeste fashion till fuel exhaustion ?

[RifRaf3]

The altitude excursions may not be accurate because of primary radar, but nevertheless probably occurred to some extent. The readings may have merely exaggerated the trends.

[island_airphoto]

Do we have some packet that says <ACARS SYSTEM BEING TURNED OFF NOW> or is just that it missed the usual interval?

[atakacs]

Folks: why would an apparently competent crew turns off ACARS and transponder but seemingly "forget" about SATCOM (assuming this is indeed the satellite feed the authorities are referring to - I have not seen any formal reference to IMARSAT) ? And in the case it was not a deliberate act is there any scenario that would take off ACARS and transponder yet allow the aircraft to fly for another 4-5 hours ?! I can't think of any...
Really really weird one !

[Pom Pax]

Does your vhf announce your presence even if you are only listening?
Once upon a time it did not appear to.

[Desert185]

Oceanic

As a Professional Pilots forum, these fanciful posts are embarassing. Heists, gold bullion, conspiracies. If you haven't anything sensible to post may I request you desist or join a different forum for fictional creative writing. 200 pages of posts, mostly drivel. Thanks to those few who have the expertise to elaborate on the facts.

Some intelligent conjecture, but primarily uninformed, soap opera style conjecture. Think I'll abstain and wait for the book or movie version.

Condolences and sympathies to the family and friends of all involved. Not knowing, while trying to have some semblance of hope has got to be trying. Much of this doesn't help at all.

[Aireps]

Reports say that MH370's last ACARS pings were received by Inmarsat.

If it's a fact that the pings were received by Inmarsat only, and not by ACARS ground stations, couldn't you deduce that MH370 was not in range of an ACARS ground station when it sent its last pings?

SITA ACARS ground station coverage:
http://s15.postimg.org/w5heol3cr/SITA_ACARS_coverage.jpg

ARINC ACARS ground station coverage:
http://s16.postimg.org/i9ivazs51/ARINC_ACARS_coverage.jpg

SITA ACARS ground station coverage (PDF) (http://www.universalweather.com/triptools/uvdatalink/pdfs/SITA-Aircom-Coverage-Feb-2009.pdf)

ARINC ACARS ground station coverage (PDF) (http://www.universalweather.com/triptools/uvdatalink/pdfs/ARINC-VHF-World-April-2010.pdf)

[Foray Access]

Go look up Freescale, they do a LOT more than aircraft related stuff.... they are a broad semiconductor company supplying and designing components from aircraft to computers to telephones to everything and anything in between.

Given China's status as a major manufacturing centre for many companies, its perhaps no surprise that bunches of engineers from a major semiconductor company fly there on a regular basis. Freescale have something like 18,000 employees.... sending 20 employees somewhere is no big deal !

Don't believe all the nonsense journalists publish, and certainly don't read too much into it !

Agreed, chasing the Freescale angle as some sort of target for the hijacking is a waste of time. The employees on board were 12 Malaysian and 8 Chinese (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-relatives/) with titles like 'Test 1 Process Engineer' and 'Test 1 Manufacturing Manager.' (http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/562572-freescale-semiconductor-20-employees-on-board-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane/) Not exactly janitorial staff or cafeteria workers, sure, but not exactly rare talents in the countries that contain a massive portion of the semiconductor manufacturing facilities on Earth today.

If you had some burning desire to learn Freescale's industrial secrets when it comes to improvement of semiconductor manufacturing processes, surely offering a pay rise and a signing bonus would be simpler than some complicated plot to hijack an airliner, make it disappear, and torture the passengers until they spill the beans.

[Caygill]

Could someone share some light on the theoretical possibilities of a T7 reaching 45000 feet, as indicated by the Mal authorities.


This source claims the service ceiling being 43100ft Aerospaceweb.org | Aircraft Museum - Boeing 777 (http://www.aerospaceweb.org/aircraft/jetliner/b777/index.shtml)

[G-CPTN]

It has been mentioned before, but how do you explain that there have been no reports of any mobile 'phone calls being received?

Passengers would have realised that the flight time was 'overdue'.

Are we saying that there was no possibility of reception throughout the route - wherever that might be?

Were the earlier (dismissed) reports of ringing tones now possible?

[FE Hoppy]

Caygill Could someone share some light on the theoretical possibilities of a T7 reaching 45000 feet, as indicated by the Mal authorities.
This source claims the service ceiling being 43100ft Aerospaceweb.org | Aircraft Museum - Boeing 777

The service ceiling is not the performance limit.

At the approximate weight at the time the aircraft would be limited by thrust such that it could maintain about 40000ft with maximum cruise thrust. It could maintain a higher altitude with higher thrust if this is available or it could make a zoom climb to higher altitudes but not maintain.

I am of the opinion that @45000ft is possible but also consider that the height is derived from primary radar and is therefore subject to some error.

[Tu.114]

Quote:
Yes agreed. I said before we need to know 2 things more:--

1/ Fuel on board at departure, this will be known by MH
2/ Cargo manifest, what were they carrying?
I will add one more thing to your list:

3/ Crews roster for last month, what was crew doing?


And one more addition: was there any crew rostering request with regards to this flight?

[Foray Access]

Aireps, the maps are very informative, but I don't think SATCOM vs. a ground link is the right inference to base your conclusions. It's not that the Inmarsat pings were initiated by ACARS, but rather by the SATCOM system itself. From what has been released so far, we understand that the ACARS function was turned off, but that action did not fully disable the SATCOM - it only prevented ACARS from initiating any messages.

The "pings" under discussion were empty network keepalive messages sent as a matter of routine functioning of the SATCOM transceiver itself. Imagine this conversation:

"Hello? Anyone there? If, hypothetically, I wished to send some data, could you pass it along for me? Oh, I'm not paid up on this account? So sorry to trouble you. I'll ask again later. Perhaps then I can speak to someone whose bills I've paid."

If that is in fact what the authorities are working off of, then it doesn't matter if any ACARS ground stations were nearby or not, as there was never any ACARS data queued up in the outbox after 01:07 Malaysia time.

[HeathrowAirport]

Considering that so many people on here claim to be professionals, I am astounded that nobody has looked into the technical side of how much fuel was actually on-board for this rather short flight.


MAS370 got airborne at 1643z
LKP according to Radar/Mode S transponder was 1722z
Flight time was ZBAA0521 - 5 hours 21 minutes
When it went missing it had fuel reportedly for a further 7 hours 30 minutes.
39 minutes of TRIP fuel was burned to that point and presumably 10-15 minutes APU/TAXI.


So the big question that now remains, why was there an uplift of just over 8 hours for a 5 hours 21 minute flight. Planning within standards would suggests maybe just over 6 and 1/2 hours fuel. If this is the case then how comes the captain signed off and additional 1 hour 30 minutes fuel or more (that is public knowledge)

I've not suggested that the captain has anything to do with this, but all that extra fuel for a flight that isn't going very far has more questions than answers. After all, any additional uplift is his final decision.

[givemewings]

In-flight wifi is fairly easy to control. I won't say how but in most cases the pax just think it's a service outage, not that it's been switched off. There is more than one way to control it but like many things, the flight deck usually have some ability to control this.

[henra]

So how has ACARS been disabled and the crew are carrying on as normal until TOC ? Unless someone was in the equipment bay.

I would consider this a valid question.

But since as of late it seems to be mostly Holywood time in here (got much worse since Official confirmation pointing also towards Intererence), such detail probably doesn't matter.

Let's simply cross fingers someone finds this Needle in the apparently huge Haystack.

[Lorimer]

but is there any merit in looking for contrails in satellite imagery or even (massive undertaking) ground based pictures?

In response to Tristan Gooley's post No. 3463, the Appleman Chart gives the answer although the vertical axis is in pressure rather than feet (I've marked 26,000 feet & -40ºC):

http://i963.photobucket.com/albums/ae116/lorimerburn/Screenshot2014-03-15165337_zps31c7de4b.png

In rough terms, OAT needs to be -40ºC or colder for formation, and contrails will rarely be found below 26,000' (8km). So depending on the humidity, a contrail could have been formed that Sunday morning – although whether one could have been seen at night is open to question (but it was reportedly cloudless with a moon!), but then "which one"?

NASA's website is informative:
Contrail Education - Science (http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/contrail-edu/science.php)

[PlaneMass]

So the big question that now remains, why was there an uplift of just over 8 hours for a 5 hours 21 minute flight.

Could they be uplifting cheaper Malaysian (state subsidised?) fuel to cover some of the return or onward leg?

[kenjaDROP]

@snowfalcon2
@TelcoAUS

About the nearest anyone on here has got to what is actually happening involving the analysis of the Inmarsat received data is snowfalcon2 at post #3850.

With TelcoAUS not far behind.

IMO, the track/positioning deductions will become more accurate during the next hours.

[1a sound asleep]

Translation (rough) of some of the Captains facebook page. .........

https://www.facebook.com/zaharie.shah.3


right terror anwar ne. !

Politics of fear.. This is what it’s boiled down to… Questioning the qualification of the individuals who dare to standup. (Anuar or Hadi .) These are our only hope to restore democracy. 50 years in power by a single party (coalition) does not say much about democracy in the country. If these leaders willing to stand in the line of fire the least we could do is support them. They might not be perceived to be the best candidate but sacrifice is necessary to achieve the goal of free democracy. When you renovate a house you have to suffer all the consequences. From dust, to the contractor that run off with the money, Aliens workers keeping an eyes on your family. WHY DO YOU RISK THAT? Because at the end after all the loss of extra ringgit for overprice items the contractor billed you and you elude the alien predators from robbing your house and harming your family you know it will be worthwhile.

Asalamualaikum
Today is my last post on FB. The vote is with bijaksana.Kesejahteraan
the future of our children depends on the decision
you do tomorrow.
I count as a watchdog that will Ballot Box P107
opened the next day at the Office of Government Chinatown.
I gather 10 fingers apologize if there terkasar language.
I am a common man can not escape from errors.

In place of the votes in a government office petaling. Kul 5 new start counting. Sorry no pictures allowed.

[Speed of Sound]

We seem to be generally agreed that voice calls can be made below 8000 feet and texts sent or received at anything up to 35,000 feet.

Given that MH370 did not have a limitless supply of fuel, at some point it must have descended through 8000 feet at which point crew or passengers would have been able to make calls or send texts. The latest inmarsat information puts the extremes of possible range either over Khazakstan to the north or the Pacific Ocean west of Oz to the South. If it flew north, by the time it started descending, the flight time would be over that expected by most passengers and you would expect a rush of concerned mobile phone calls or texts on the morning of Saturday 8th. At least some of these attempts are likely to have made it to a cell somewhere on the ground.

Even if the cell data was being withheld, at least one friend or relative of those on board would have reported the contact by now. Which makes me think that either the plane flew south and ditched in the sea or if it did fly north, the crew and passengers were either dead or unconscious due to 5+ hours in the death zone.

Just a thought

[BillS]

A map showing primary radar coverage would be interesting, particularly with intersections with the Inmarsat reception arcs.
It is a reasonable assumption that many records are now being scrutinised.

What is also interesting is the availability of such coverage maps to a interested pilot or non-military party.

[mixture]

Even if the cell data was being withheld, at least one friend or relative of those on board would have reported the contact by now. Which makes me think that either the plane flew south and ditched in the sea or if it did fly north, the crew and passengers were either dead or unconscious due to 5+ hours in the death zone.

Agree. This. Plus, as has been explained a million times already, the ringback tone is NOT generated by the phone handset, but by the network, and there are a million reasons why you may hear ringing and yet the handset might never ring (or be turned off/ broken).

I think we need to treat the mobile phone stuff as yet another random conspiracy theory until such time as HARD FACTS show otherwise.....

[skippybangkok]

Even more.... seems he hates Barisan National.... and is backing Anwar.... who just got indicted for Sodomy again.........

Revenge ?

From Capt FB

- Wikipedia reported Dr M is the second richest among retired leaders in the world, after Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. His wealth is estimated to be USD 44 billion (RM 160 billion) .Should we allow him to plunder our country's wealth? If PAKATAN is voted in on May 5 this wealth can be frozen & returned to the rakyat. As long as BN is in power, no one can touch him. Ubah lah !! Forward to at least 10 people

Apparently Putra Jaya issued an order that wef fm Monday, all staff not allowed OT and only authorized staff r allowed into PM department !!!!
They saw the revolt at the Putra jaya's ceramah !!
Clearly pmo are cleaning ****s in the office before handover. Sign of bn preparing defeat.
This is an urgent appeal for support. Pakatan Rakyat needs everybody to bring the messages of truth down to the grassroots level. There are many people who have not received the messages from Pakatan Rakyat. Many have not been able to attend the Pakatan Ceremahs. Please help to send all message that you receive to at least 10 persons. The more people we can reach out to the whole country the better. We need to reach out to the 7th level. We need to reach out to 1 million people very fast. Time is very limited. Please help. Thank you.

[RatherBeFlying]

While a lone actor might decide to end it all, there's some difficulty in persuading a larger group to go with the plan.

But there is the door and a distinct lack of tools in back to get through it. The Ethiopian pilot was unmolested during his unauthorised diversion.

Methinks there's going to be openings for jumpseaters who can both land the plane if necessary and take care of those with ideas to divert the aircraft.

Cue wails from the beancounters.

[SLFgeek]

These reports of looking in Turkmenistan AND northern Thailand are surely misrepresentations, unless the news editors' atlases were just open at T in the index. Turkmenistan is as far from KL as Beijing is, but a long long way from northern Thailand.

The intention of the press statement was presumably to say that there's the possibility of looking along a track from Turkmenistan to Thailand - since it presumably wasn't seen by either Chinese or Indian radars.
I'm going to infer, from the press conference remarks, that the last satellite point was somewhere 40-deg north or south. That they took a map of that part of the world, drew an arc from the last know primary skin paint, out to the range of fuel, then looked to see where 40 north or south would intersect that arc. I suspect that they also took note of potential routes, and who had PSR that might have seen it pass. As the a/c was flying east to west, it would have been moving in the same direction as sunrise, so it could have been in darkness the entire trip.

Would you send a fighter up to investigate a radar blip, in the dark, in mountainous terrain ?

As for the south corridor, there are a few islands out there ... including DG (already mentioned several times). If the a/c had made it to DG, I think most governments would already have been notified. But DG, as a destination, violates the 40-deg north/south, so I doubt that was the target.

Most perplexing.

[Speed of Sound]

Before people get too carried with stuff from facebook, creating fake facebook accounts is a national sport in some parts of the world.

[AN2 Driver]

Methinks there's going to be openings for jumpseaters who can both land the plane if necessary and take care of those with ideas to divert the aircraft.


Which will accomplish what exactly? If we can't trust two people how can we trust 3?

What this boils down to is that if the flight crew are involved in this, which I refuse to believe until I see unrefutable proof, then the world of the international airline pilot will yet once again change beyond recognition. With todays CYA policy, the scream for action which is certain to follow, with now several publicized cases to stand in such a process, we may see a further erosion of the respect and trust those in power will have for air crew.

It would show to one extent however that the flight deck door rules and the daily beep beep touch touch checks have amounted to just about nothing, but have in opposite possibly caused at least one aircraft to be beyond rescue when that aircrafts captain decided to end it all a few months back. All the horrified FO could do is bang his hands at the door.

Frankly, todays press conference has shook me to the core of my own inner beliefs in whom to trust and whom not. I still am in denial that any crew could do something like that, so in a way I hope there will be ANY other explanation than that one. We can fix planes, we can increase security but to repair trust is something which is as unlikely as the whole mess we find ourselfs in right now.

[4alpha]

These FB posts are from nearly a year ago. Nothing political recently that I can see.

[Neogen]

Quote:
Quote:
Yes agreed. I said before we need to know 2 things more:--

1/ Fuel on board at departure, this will be known by MH
2/ Cargo manifest, what were they carrying?
I will add one more thing to your list:

3/ Crews roster for last month, what was crew doing?

And one more addition: was there any crew rostering request with regards to this flight?

Agree.. in short it boils down to:


Fuel
Cargo
Crew

[alexb757]

In answer to one of your questions, LHR, the FOB at KUL. Possibly tankering fuel.......for the return trip.

[Perth_WA]

Reported today (15th March):
No Cookies | Perth Now (http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/amsa-says-no-reliable-information-about-report-mh370-tracked-to-ocean-off-australia/story-fnhnv0wb-1226855613696)

AMSA says no reliable information about report MH370 tracked to ocean off Australia

THE Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said it had no reliable information to indicate Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 may have approached Australia.

AMSA was responding to a single report today that the last satellite transmission from the missing jet was traced to the Indian Ocean off Australia.

Quoting an anonymous person familiar with the information, Bloomberg reported a path from Malaysia to waters off Australia would have taken as much as 3000 miles.

This is about the maximum distance the Boeing 777-200 could have flown with its fuel load, the news agency reported.

“MH370 may have flown beyond its last known position, about 1000 miles west of Perth, and that location may not be an indication of where the plane ended up,” the report states.

A search in Australian waters would be in the jurisdiction of AMSA.

A spokesman said: “AMSA has not received reliable information indicating that Malaysian Airlines’ flight MH370 may have approached Australia or entered the Australian search and rescue region.

“Should verified information or request for assistance be passed to AMSA from authorities coordinating the search for flight MH370, it will be assessed on its merits.

“Australia is assisting the search efforts with two Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft deployed to the region.

“The Bloomberg report will be passed to coordinating authorities for their assessment in the context of all of the other information they have available to them.”
---------------------------

interesting quote:
“Should verified information or request for assistance be passed to AMSA from authorities coordinating the search for flight MH370, it will be assessed on its merits.

So... Australia hasn't reviewed its primary radar data etc yet for any sign of MH370... Considering the IMARSAT data now available re the possible location west of Perth, I think this should have already been checked.

[litinoveweedle]

Reports say that MH370's last ACARS pings were received by Inmarsat.

If it's a fact that the pings were received by Inmarsat only, and not by ACARS ground stations, couldn't you deduce that MH370 was not in range of an ACARS ground station when it sent its last pings?



ACARS is data source.
There are different transports media, which could be used to transport ACARS data. (SATCOM, HF, VHF)
No ACARS data were received as ACARS was probably switched off.
Only SATCOM transport protocol 'pings' were received, as SATOM was not switched off, but did not received any data from ACARS to be sent.
Other ACARS transports systems like HF and VHF were probably switched off.
HF an VHF transports do not probably send any 'pings' as these are not needed for given transport layer. (I would expect, that these SATCOM ping are mainly to sync TDMA channel slot time and no such action is needed for HF or VHF)

So such correlation as you suggest is probably not useful.

[overthewing]

Ages back in the thread, someone posted about the vulnerability of the electronics bay, accessible through the floor outside the cockpit. Does anyone know what can be done from there, ie can the transponder /ACARS be disabled?

And -while we're brainstorming - how big is that bay? Is it big enough for someone to hide in - say, before take-off?

[sheepless]

I have seen two sets of "final words" from the flight. From one source:

- “All right, roger that” a pilot replied to a radio message from Malaysian air control.
- One of the pilots also replied, “All right, good night.”

It has been a few years since I was operational in ATC but I would have expected a read back of the frequency they were being transferred to.

ATC, MH370 contact (xxx control ) on (frequency) goodnight
Pilot, Roger (xxx) on (frequency) goodnight

("Roger that" seems to come from American TV, I'm continuously trying to stop trainees using it.)

Strange to get two pilots responding, both appearing to be non standard.

[GQ2]

...if it was the pilots replying....

[BenThere]

Though just about everyone does it, read back of a frequency is not required.

[ZOOKER]

Ben There,
it certainly is in the U.K.

[HEATHROW DIRECTOR]

“All right, roger that”

I never heard such a phrase. Where did he get "All right" from? Bizarre.

[cockpitvisit]

What this boils down to is that if the flight crew are involved in this, which I refuse to believe until I see unrefutable proof,

In the past 15 years, there have been 3 deadly crashes caused by flight crew suicide. This is about 30% of all deadly accidents happening during cruise flight (not counting 9/11).

Nothing has been done to prevent similar flight crew actions in the future; hardened cockpit doors made it even easier.

So without prejudice towards this specific flight crew, deliberate flight crew actions cannot be dismissed as a possible cause based on past experience.

[DaKra]

777 avionics were reported by the US Govt Federal Register as accessable to a hacker. :eek: I'm not going to post the link or any details, because I don't want to help anybody looking for a way in. Supposedly the issue has been fixed, and seems beyond the capability of garden variety hijackers but its something to be wary of.

[globalexpress62]

Its obvious you have never operated into China... quite common to have an extra couple of hours fuel for the unexpected behavior of Chinese ATC

[litinoveweedle]

("Roger that" seems to come from American TV, I'm continuously trying to stop trainees using it.)

Strange to get two pilots responding, both appearing to be non standard. I would not judge by phraseo. It si more than normal that on home ATC frequency you are more than relaxed, and you will not repeat frequency you repeated probably hundred times before. You can check on liveATC.net how pilots on home country frequencies almost never do readback correctly, when handed over to new control. Even if this is was handover to Vietnam control, I would not see this strange or suspicious.

And I would say, that if you know how to disable ACARS, you would probably know these ~50 ICAO phrases well enough. As you can get them freely (http://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/115.pdf), unlike of T7 detailed system descriptions.

[goeasy]

Many posts will be being deleted because they are plain stupid, or because the subject is security sensitive.

As someone who is well involved on this industry, I am already extremely nervous at the amount of detailed system/procedural information already discussed here. It just doesn't help future airline security...

I am just as keen as anyone else to see this queer mystery unravelled, but I am not about to share my professional knowledge. Others need to think before posting.

[Airbubba]

Frankly, todays press conference has shook me to the core of my own inner beliefs in whom to trust and whom not. I still am in denial that any crew could do something like that, so in a way I hope there will be ANY other explanation than that one. We can fix planes, we can increase security but to repair trust is something which is as unlikely as the whole mess we find ourselfs in right now.

And when was the last time an airline pilot hijacked their own aircraft?

Answer, about a month ago:

Co-pilot hijacks Ethiopian Airlines, flies to Geneva for asylum - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/17/world/europe/ethiopian-airlines-hijacking/)

Tankering fuel to China is not unusual at my outfit. I would imagine fuel is somewhat subsidized at KUL for local carriers.

If that plane indeed zigzagged NORDO eastward staying on the airways to avoid military scrutiny, as others have observed, it probably wasn't the work of an amateur.

[Uncle Fred]

As someone who is well involved on this industry, I am already extremely nervous at the amount of detailed system/procedural information already discussed here. It just doesn't help future airline security...

Excellent point Goeasy. The procedures we use have been developed over the years to ensure security and now I am watching them openly discussed and displayed for all the world to see. Not saying that it ever could be prevented, but if we are not security conscious 100% of the time then we are not doing our job properly.

[G-ARVH]

Its obvious you have never operated into China... quite common to have an extra couple of hours fuel for the unexpected behavior of Chinese ATC


I agree

[luoto]

Security through obscurity is never a good thing, it just gives a false, warm sense of security. If a bad guy is going to do something and he is an insider guess what, he or she would know what buttons to press. It might stop Mike the Plumber rushing the flight deck and using his bottle of vodka as a battering ram, but if Nigel the co pilot is going to do bad stuff, he is going to do it regardless.

[N5329K]

Indeed it is possible. I wrote a book about just such an event, back before the first a/c was delivered. The book was entitled The Last High Ground, and while the story bears absolutely no resemblance to what we're seeing now (uncommanded throttle-ups and t/r deployments were the plot point), the code inserted into the a/c systems was considered accurate and threatening enough by Boeing for them to ask the publisher to delete it. Which we did.
Robin White

[overthewing]

If something that pops up on Pprune is enough to give an 'amateur' troublemaker the means to take over a plane, then it seems to me it's a vulnerable area that should be identified and dealt with. Airing it is only responsible - especially if the issue has been ignored by those in authority.

Anyone taking a professional approach to the task of hijacking is likely to have access to other resources, such as data from actual pilots and ATC staff, wouldn't you think? I don't think they're going to be scouring Pprune for handy hints.

[Pace]

I can also remember some report of an Airline Captain on his last flight before retirement loosing the plot and barrel rolling an Airline full of PAX.

You cannot discount crew loosing the plot and committing suicide deciding to take the whole ship with them.
Respected Family Men have lost the plot and wiped out their whole family wife and kids.

If its one nutcase Pax then if the crew are lax on securing the Cockpit while using the WC etc then it is feasible that a Pax pushed in locked the door killed the crew and did his wicked deeds.

As stated I cannot see organised terrorism behind this because of a lack of claims for the Evil deed.
Organised terrorism need the publicity and coverage to promote their cause and to date there have been no serious claims to carrying out such an act.

I still bar the crew or errant Pax lean towards a massive decompression with emergency descent minus the A/P

Pace

[DWS]

The following is MY compilation of WSJ-FOX- and Malay Prime Minister of what ** seem* to be reasonably factual along with reading the last 20 pages of posts.

1) Flight path- zig zag along boundaries of radar coverage were deliberate and planned

2) Pings from ACARS ( hello ? hello ? ) were probably on a one hour basis after reaching ' cruise " Thus it would be possible to fly for about 1 hour AFTER the last ping- and dump it in the drink before the next scheduled ping.

3) It is also possible to get into lower bay ( required to shut down ACARS- ping ) and could be done with AX if nothing else ( special screwdriver may normally be required ?? )

4) passengers could have long since been out of picture via decompression at 20K plus for longer than passenger ox supply- while pilot(s) or baddie would still have sufficient Ox ( need to find out ETOPS requirements for Pilots OX )

5) IF ACARS shut down deliberately - then at least one hour radius from two positions on "ARC" would be a probable search area.

6) US navy/pentagon/ probably not sent to sea based on hunch - but more likely on data not yet released due to security issues.

7) Comparing cessna in red square is ridiculous - 777 is slightly larger and a bit more metal . .

8) By now, IF plane had landed - it would have been spotted

9) A feature or terrorism is FUD and zipping lips is very effective

10) still seems to be a mixup on time issues

11) 40K feet climb and stall seem to be not likely

12) IMO EVEN with various military assets, subs, sonar bouys, etc ELT pinger range in deep water may be limited for a variety of reasons best known by sonar operators. MAD devices may help . .
but at best about 3 weeks left to find ELT pinger..

12) IMO - other theories, area 51 style, gold bullion, refueling, hostages, arfe fodder for the coming 25 books on the subject via Tom clancy style- but should be relegated to the twilight zone or alternate universe types.

[papershuffler]

Australia still waiting for a request to review radar?
Reported today (15th March):
No Cookies | Perth Now (http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/amsa-says-no-reliable-information-about-report-mh370-tracked-to-ocean-off-australia/story-fnhnv0wb-1226855613696)

AMSA says no reliable information about report MH370 tracked to ocean off Australia

THE Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said it had no reliable information to indicate Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 may have approached Australia.

AMSA was responding to a single report today that the last satellite transmission from the missing jet was traced to the Indian Ocean off Australia.
<snip>

“MH370 may have flown beyond its last known position, about 1000 miles west of Perth, and that location may not be an indication of where the plane ended up,” the report states.

A search in Australian waters would be in the jurisdiction of AMSA.

A spokesman said: “AMSA has not received reliable information indicating that Malaysian Airlines’ flight MH370 may have approached Australia or entered the Australian search and rescue region.

“Should verified information or request for assistance be passed to AMSA from authorities coordinating the search for flight MH370, it will be assessed on its merits.

“Australia is assisting the search efforts with two Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft deployed to the region.

“The Bloomberg report will be passed to coordinating authorities for their assessment in the context of all of the other information they have available to them.”
---------------------------

interesting quote:
“Should verified information or request for assistance be passed to AMSA from authorities coordinating the search for flight MH370, it will be assessed on its merits.

So... Australia hasn't reviewed its primary radar data etc yet for any sign of MH370... Considering the IMARSAT data now available re the possible location west of Perth, I think this should have already been checked.

I didn't read it that way at all.

I used to deal with LoRs (Letters of Request - officially issued documents from investigating authorities to foreign jurisdictions) and due to legalities, it's not possible to confirm a sensitive negative (or positive) without official hoops being jumped through.
I think AMSA are saying is that they need a specific, officially-issued LoR (or similar) in order for them to respond officially and to confirm the area that they know the plane didn't fly over. And that currently nothing's leaping out at them.

Regarding reviewing the data, that should all be gathered and in the process of being 'de-sensitised' by now.

[Vinnie Boombatz]

Some satellite visibility plots and satellite antenna pattern plots here:

BGAN Coverage Map & Details (http://www.groundcontrol.com/bgan_coverage_map.htm)

Spot beam footprints:

http://www.groundcontrol.com/images/GC-Map33.jpg

More on INMARSAT 4:

ESA Telecommunications:BGAN Extension Phase 1 (http://telecom.esa.int/telecom/www/object/index.cfm?fobjectid=11369)

and another footprint map:

http://telecom.esa.int/telecom/media/img/hiresimage/BGANX1-Obj4-hres.jpg

The spot beams might be dedicated to higher bandwidth communications, and might not be used for ACARS data. Without knowing more, it is risky to assume that a received "ping" could be located within a single spot beam. See comments by TelcoAUS #3862.

Snowfalcon2 #3849 and rh200 #3809 comment on poor accuracy of using signal strength for location. Agreed, and uncertainty in the aircraft's antenna gain degrades it even more.

Current satellite locations:

INMARSAT 4-F1
143.5 E
LIVE REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING AND PREDICTIONS: INMARSAT 4-F1 (http://www.n2yo.com/?s=28628)

INMARSAT 3-F1
64.55 E
LIVE REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING AND PREDICTIONS: INMARSAT 3-F1 (http://www.n2yo.com/?s=23839)

INMARSAT 5-F1
62.58 E
LIVE REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING AND PREDICTIONS: INMARSAT 5-F1 (http://www.n2yo.com/?s=39476)

[Greenlights]

As I told it from the begining it is SURE that the plane is hijacked. What pilot would fly for hours after a problem, seriously ?

Some pilots talk about security here, but hey, as I told it in another thread, nowadays it VERY EASY to go in a plane and learn.

Just have money and do some P2F program available for anybody on earth. Being in a cockpit of a big jet and learn it, you just need some money nowadays. Just be a client :E
No need of forums to learn about any safety issue.

[Shackeng]

Quote:

“All right, roger that”

I never heard such a phrase. Where did he get "All right" from? Bizarre.

Agreed, I have been unhappy with the phrases used since they were first reported. Are MAS procedures such that sloppy phraseology would be used? Certainly not with the Big Airline I flew for.
If not, was it the crew trying to indicate a HJ? Or HJacker using the R/T?:hmm::hmm::hmm:

[paultr]

I recall that near the start of this thread that there was some suprise as to the tone of the words used by the Captain/FO/Someone before being told MH370 was being handed over to HCMC. The actual last words were “All right, good night.”

Things have changed dramatically since then as we now know that just a few minutes earlier, he or another had disabled the ACARS so the whole event had actually just started.

These words and his tone of voice must be hugely significant and pose many questions. Assuming these transmissions are recorded it would be easy to work out who was actually speaking, was there signs of anxiety in his voice, were these the words he had used on previous occasions, were there signs he was signalling he might have been under duress ?

All it would need is for a close friend or family member to listen to the recording and many of these questions could be answered.

I am in no way implying the Captain 'did it' but like others I find it astonishing that only now is his home being investigated. How many times have we heard heart rending appeals by parents of missing children on TV only to find later that they had in fact murdered their child. Thorough investigation means just that, and IMO his and the FO's house/apartment should have been searched very early on, as soon as no wreckage was found.

(Mods, I hope that the fact I have read every single post on this extraordinary thread gives me some right to comment)

[Return 2 Stand]

I can't imagine why someone would follow the southern possibility, it leads no-where within fuel range. Surely it must have gone North?

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/73602000/jpg/_73602229_possible_plane_area3_624(3).jpg

Unless the authorities have further info, I can't see this a/craft being found any time soon.

[SOPS]

Well, with over 22000 hours, and the the last 24 years spent flying long haul, all right, roger that, seems a "normal' response to me, compared to some things I have heard. I will be the first to admit, when I'm in home airspace I will say different things as compared to say when I'm in Rusian airspace. I think we are looking at too deeply.

[Uncle Fred]

If something that pops up on PPRuNe is enough to give an 'amateur' troublemaker the means to take over a plane, then it seems to me it's a vulnerable area that should be identified and dealt with. Airing it is only responsible - especially if the issue has been ignored by those in authority.


That point is well made and well taken. It just the manner in which these vulnerabilities are being aired that takes me aback. Very little of it is in a disinterested, cool, and rational , effort to move the ball down-field. Rather a lot of it is sensationalist, presumptive, and snippets that make the listener/reader feel as if he has gleaned a secret from the inner sanctum of knowledge.

In other words, I am all for the rational review and emendation of our procedures. It is the tawdry approach that I do not take a liking to...

As for another poster stating that you just pay money to learn? I would recommend a better reading of this forum and many of its threads. Not that it is post doctoral microbiology or physics, but there is a bit more to maneuvering an airliner than just a few sessions on the home computer...

[lhp]

The "pings" under discussion were empty network keepalive messages sent as a matter of routine functioning of the SATCOM transceiver itself. Imagine this conversation:

"Hello? Anyone there? If, hypothetically, I wished to send some data, could you pass it along for me? Oh, I'm not paid up on this account? So sorry to trouble you. I'll ask again later. Perhaps then I can speak to someone whose bills I've paid."

Pings do not contain signon data, so the carrier can not possibly determine whether the account is current. Pings are used by professionals to determine if a server is connected. However, it is really sloppy software to generate superfluous pings. If there is not data to transmit, then there is no reason to waste battery power and bandwith to see which server could take your call if you had a payload to send, like a sign on request. Pings can be generated by cell phone users who do not disable their mobile network, either through settings or through airplane mode. I highly doubt that avionic software is written to ping ad nauseum. It certainly would help if authorities could specify exactly which component is pinking. But due to the absence of information, it's safe to assume they don't know. It took them days to associate the pinging and radar track with MH370. So, can be deducted that engineers have found a way to extrapolate a connection between the pinging and the aircraft.
By the way, the 45,000ft data and then the 0 altitude data seem to support a disintegration of flight MH370. MH370 with its load could not climb to 45000, but a MH370 with missing parts may, in part of the breakdown series.

[jugofpropwash]

For those suggesting the plane might have "shadowed" another to avoid radar...

Regardless of who did it, this appears very carefully planned. Would the culprit or culprits count on that other plane being where it was supposed to be? To me, too big a chance that the other flight might be delayed - then the whole plan falls apart.

The only way I could possibly see it working would be if the pilot of the shadowed aircraft was in on the plot, and that seems exceeding unlikely.

[airnostalgia]

Ah, you beat me to it. Non-standard terminology seems to be the rule rather than the exception between pilots and controllers with whom they work on a regular basis. You're correct - out of country we tend to go bay the book.

[ollopa]

I still don't quite understand how they arrive at the two arcs. Intelsat IOR at 64E I understand, but what tells them it's that narrow band, and not a band through (for example) Pakistan and the Maldives, which are also not overlapped by another sat? Can someone take the trouble to explain in layperson terms?

[lhp]

....It was suggested that MH370 was shadowed until its demise at 1:30, and the shadow then turned west on a flight path that shadows the ATC boundaries exactly. The suggestion was that the pings are generated by the shadow, not MH370.
This has been laid to rest though by yesterday's announcement that the pings have been tied to MH370 definitely. Unfortunately they didn't explain how, which would then have to pass peer review by PPRune.
I am glad that this forum is not confined to jet jockeys, most of which are not rated on 777's anyway.

[jumbobelle]

so assuming the disappearance was deliberate, how do you make your 777 totally invisible to everyone, civil and military not to mention engineering/Rolls Royce?

[somepitch]

I still don't quite understand how they arrive at the two arcs. Intelsat IOR at 64E I understand, but what tells them it's that narrow band, and not a band through (for example) Pakistan and the Maldives, which are also not overlapped by another sat? Can someone take the trouble to explain in layperson terms?

There's quite a bit of discussion and accompanying diagrams beginning with TelcoAg's post #3779 a few pages back... explains it very nicely!

[OleOle]

Some points about the inmarsat lines of position.

- According to spec GSM must infer distance between base station and user equipment via round trip times with an acuracy of better than 550 metres. I see no reason why Inmarsat should perform worse.

- In the first 2 hours of the flight MH370 was in range of two satellites (POR/IOR). During that time two intersecting lines of position should be available. From todays PMs Statement:
Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.
I.e. primary radar track and the positions from inmarsat correlate. That is what gives them confidence in the data.

- What was shown to the public was only the last known line of position. More lines from during the flight must be available.

- If sombody wanted to land that plane somewhere (I don't believe it) he might wanted to do that with first light. As we are close to Equinox the night/day border is almost parallel to the meridians. Longitude of the day/night border at 8:11 Malay time was somewhere close to the Andamans. Further west it was still dark.

[nupogodi]

I still don't quite understand how they arrive at the two arcs. Intelsat IOR at 64E I understand, but what tells them it's that narrow band, and not a band through (for example) Pakistan and the Maldives, which are also not overlapped by another sat? Can someone take the trouble to explain in layperson terms?

The reality is that likely the band is not so narrow. Calculating distance from >30000km requires very accurate timing. If they are off by a millisecond, they they could be off by hundreds of kilometres. So the reality is the potential arc of last known locations could be much wider, but these are what they determined to be most likely given the last known position of the aircraft.

[jeanlyon]

This will probably be deleted, but I thought straight away it was an odd thing to say The expression "all right" is so English, not the sort of thing said by a Malaysian. If he had said OK, I might not have noticed.

[GlueBall]

Rogue pilot carries on until leaving Malaysian Air traffic Control and then goes totally quiet. That's "easy" - now the difficult bit - WHY ?

...tired of life and a need to make a statement by going down with a big bang.

[Kentut]

This will probably be deleted, but I thought straight away it was an odd thing to say The expression "all right" is so English, not the sort of thing said by a Malaysian. If he had said OK, I might not have noticed.

Hi Jeanlyon

I am unsure if you ever lived or visited Malaysia, which was a colony of the British, and where English is widely spoken together with their language, Bahasa Malaysia. The average Malaysian speaks decent English IMO so much so applicants seeking to migrate to eg Australia, do not have to go through the IELTS testing, given as an example.

Undubbed content from the US and elsewhere forms a large portion of openly available TV channels in Malaysia.

It would not surprise me if he had indeed said that. I would think that the captain was educated in an English medium school and took all his professional courses in English.

Disclaimer: Born in Kuala Lumpur, living in Switzerland for years.

http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20110408183436105

http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/Malaysians-have-highest-English-proficiency-in-Asia-ranking

[BARKINGMAD]

If this episode was/is due to loony pilot(s), does this mean that the sensible flight ops departments of sensible airlines will regain control of flight crew recruitment??

First move would be to lock out the dreaded H R departments with their obviously ineffective psychometric tests, and to introduce proper psychobabble screening for current and future pilots and wannabes.

This could provide much needed employment amongst the shrinks shortly to be made redundant by the UK health service and introduce a complete new raft of certificates for EASA to charge for issue!

Bearing in mind that the large majority of air accidents are HF related, it might also reduce the nastys which occur due to the faulty
programming of the space between the ears of the 21st century
bonobos occupying the front seats, of whom I was one til recently?!
:suspect:

[papershuffler]

From elsewhere, last possible location map with Jindalee overlay:

http://i.imgur.com/8PY8ywk.jpg
So the Aussies 'should' be able to rule out the lower segment, depending on possible error margin?

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/22527773-post4170.html

[ETOPS]

Return 2 Stand

What about superimposing a circle, radius 3000 miles, centred on the South China sea position and seeing where it intersects the satellite arc?

[Dak Man]

Not buying this suicide angle, why wait 2hrs and why not nose dive it from FL370?

[APLFLIGHT]

United Hanger at SFO. - Wings900 Discussion Forums (http://www.wings900.com/vb/spotting/59499-united-hanger-sfo.html#post449657)

(found these online, gives an impression)

[mover625]

If so it seems he chose a remote location for his 'big bang'.