Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost [Archive] - Page 18

The Wawa Zone

16th Mar 2014, 01:37

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 01:37

It can make an aeroplane wander about for whatever amount of fuel/time is aboard. Google my friend.

Shadoko

16th Mar 2014, 01:39

Hi,

Probably one more stupid theory, but who knows?

OleOle (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-213.html#post8379588)

It makes me sick thinking about it:

- Turn off ACARS
- Then depressurize
- Wait 12 minutes until cabin emergency O2 is used up
- Turn off transponder
- Zoom climb to what is possible, on topping out there will be less than 1g so it can be somewhat higher than what is in the spec
- now return, over land no cell phone calls will be madeAnd then fly evading detection until sunrise: it will be along the south arc of the last ping, after flying for the last time. Retaliation after is friend jailed for 5 years?

Journey to the End of the Night (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journey_to_the_End_of_the_Night)

The Ancient Geek

16th Mar 2014, 01:39

Jeez - here we go again.

There is NO EVIDENCE of any human intervention, terrorists, hijacking, rogue pilots, suicides or alien abduction.

The tiny amount of VERIFYABLE evidence simply tells us that something went badly wrong. Apply a good dose of Occams Razor and the simplest explanation is a catastrophic depressurisation, probably due to a structural issue.
Cargo door, cockpit windshield, upper skin panel ...... many more possible.
Even a birdstrike is possible - it has happened before at 37500 feet but I doubt if vultures would be flying at night.

slats11

16th Mar 2014, 01:41

Why are so many still dribbling about ACARS, satcom, or transponders.

I think many of us accepted the "What happened" days ago. Now trying to figure how and why.

olasek

16th Mar 2014, 01:41

the simplest explanation is a catastrophic depressurisation, this is the dumbest explanation and I wrote above why. It doesn't explain anything about this flight.

FlightDream111

16th Mar 2014, 01:45

Are there any remote uninhabited islands with WWII runways where a 777 could land, and no-one would know? Maybe possible alternates (unofficial) ?

http://www.airfields-freeman.com/HI/Airfields_W_Pacific.htm

The 777 is perfectly capable of landing with its communications switched off? It would be daylight by then...

The aircraft flew on for 4 hours or 7 hours? If it was traced upto 4 hours and the statellite transmission equipment was disabled/hacked to pieces by someone board, the logical course would be to turn again to an area no-one would think to look.

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 01:47

I disagree OLASEC.
Your description is flawed when you consider what could happen when the crew oxygen ruptures. Holes the fuselage and subsequently does not provide the pilots with the life giving oxygen they need as they "maskup" and start trouble shooting. Really, google "QF30 incident"

The Wawa Zone

16th Mar 2014, 01:48

I agree, Mr Ancient Geek, but still the weeds sprout.

Can PPrune mods do something, ie., delete posts from the Twilight Zone crowd ??

I would suggest however that logical debate over an unlawful interference scenario(s) would be welcome if caution was exercised. I also suspect that plenty of, or all of the stakeholders would want to actively promote a 'hijacking' scenario, but with little real evidence.

1a sound asleep

16th Mar 2014, 01:49

SHOCK POLITICAL TWIST IN MH370 SAGA: Pilot was 'obsessed' with Anwar Ibrahim, M'sian PM said to be RESIGNING
Written by Malaysia Chronicle

http://malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=244482:shock-political-twist-after-days-of-secretly-holding-pilots-laptop-is-msian-pm-out-to-blame-anwar?&Itemid=2#axzz2w55cBkBq

ManaAdaSystem

16th Mar 2014, 01:51

Really Mr Buzzy, it has been discussed 200 times before, including the Qantas incident.

porterhouse

16th Mar 2014, 01:53

Really, google "QF30 incident"
And so what? This aircraft flew for 7 hours changing directions and heading into unknown?:ugh:

rigbyrigz

16th Mar 2014, 01:53

The Ancient Geek

16th Mar 2014, 01:54

Quote:
the simplest explanation is a catastrophic depressurisation,
this is the dumbest explanation and I wrote above why. It doesn't explain anything about this flight.

What, exactly, is wrong.
It explains everything that we KNOW including the loss of signals and initial erratic radar returns. There is no reason why an aircraft with a damaged upper skin panel could not then continue until fuel exhaustion.

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 01:54

Thanks Manandasystem,
Please do enlighten me then. What are the pilots breathing through their mask if their oxygen cylinder ruptures and holes the fuselage?

Heli-phile

16th Mar 2014, 01:55

There is NO EVIDENCE of any human intervention, terrorists, hijacking, rogue pilots, suicides or alien abduction.

The tiny amount of VERIFYABLE evidence simply tells us that something went badly wrong. Apply a good dose of Occams Razor and the simplest explanation is a catastrophic depressurisation, probably due to a structural issue.
Cargo door, cockpit windshield, upper skin panel ...... many more possible.
Even a birdstrike is possible - it has happened before at 37500 feet but I doubt if vultures would be flying at night.

let me summarise the above ....TOTAL DRIVEL or MOD fodder as I call it!

overthewing

16th Mar 2014, 01:55

The Telegraph (UK) reports on plot to hijack Malaysian plane:

Malaysia Airline MH370: 9/11-style terror allegations resurface in case of lost plane - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10700652/Malaysia-Airline-MH370-911-style-terror-allegations-resurface-in-case-of-lost-plane.html)

The Wawa Zone

16th Mar 2014, 01:56

olasek, incorrect. A depress-urisation does not 'cause' an aircraft to fly uncommanded, it may prevent, through crew incapacitation, recovery of control of a stable uncommanded aircraft.
The thing will not plunge to the ground the moment the crew let go of it.

porterhouse

16th Mar 2014, 01:57

There is no reason why an aircraft with a damaged upper skin panel could not then continue until fuel exhaustion
Yes, there is a known reason, an aircraft would not be zigzagging, skilfully skirting ground radars. All sudden decompressions to date resulted in aircraft staying on its original programmed path.

porterhouse

16th Mar 2014, 01:59

A depress-urisation does not 'cause' an aircraft to fly uncommanded,OK, so please enlighten us why this aircraft was zigzagging through the airspace, flying straight then making turns.

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 01:59

Also, while you "twilight zoners" are googling. Look up the Helios accident and read about how smart people can do dumb things when hypoxic.
As far as changes to tracks go, is the wind constant over 7 hours of passage over the earth?

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 02:01

Manandasystem,
Read them all. Perhaps you can explain then? What are the pilots breathing via their masks once that cylinder ruptures?

porterhouse

16th Mar 2014, 02:02

As far as changes to tracks go, is the wind constant over 7 hours of passage over the earth? Wind will never cause you to make a sharp 90 deg turn, and then another 100 deg, etc.. Clearly you don't fly because you would never use such silly argument. You also really have no clue how wind affects aircraft.

GTC58

16th Mar 2014, 02:02

I fly the B777 and given all the facts provided by the officials a catastrophic depressurization is highly unlikely in my opinion.

In the scenario mentioned above if the depressurization was catastrophic crew intervention would have highly unlikely. In this phase of flight the aircraft would have been on autopilot in LNAV/VNAV modes. As such the aircraft if able to maintain flight would have continued on its programmed route. However the evidence provided so far suggests that the aircraft turned 180 degrees and made several course changes after.

Any of you so called experts actually received high altitude training in a pressure chamber, simulating a rapid depressurization? I have.

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 02:04

Of course it changed course. They selected heading, turned off the airway and passed out.

Neogen

16th Mar 2014, 02:05

Lets look at some facts or evidences:

Plane was at IGARI when it lost contact
Oil rig worker saw explosion or sort off
Other 8 people heard of explosion
Oil slick found in east (But Malaysia denied that its Jet fuel)
US7 was one of the first to reach the area
Statements coming from White-house (US) and PM (Malaysia)
Selective leaks from Pentagon / White House
Chinese satellite picked-up something (one sortie by Malaysia plane - and they rule that out)
SAR stopped on east side of Malaysia
Vietnam accuses Malaysia of not sharing information
Only Malaysian primary radar has picked up the plane. Hard to believe that India, Indonesia and other neighboring countries failed to detect. Indian radars are quite capable and they deny any intrusion (statements coming from low level officers, not PM or chief of military)
No debris in Bay of Bengal or Indian ocean.

All information or data coming from Malaysia or US. So far Malaysia has been very inconsistent in revealing/sharing information. Vietnam and China says and proposes something, Malaysia quick to issue a denial to that.

Deduction

Malaysia is hiding something of great magnitude
US is party and supplementing to whatever Malaysia is saying or hiding
Something big has happened that Malaysia is trying to cover-up
All data/information related to satellite etc is false and is being deliberately fed as afterthought

Possibility
MH370 never flew west
It had a failure with its transponder (at a wrong time)
Crew trying to navigate
US7 fleet present in that area, picked up the aircraft on their radar. Edgy and trigger happy action by them or someone.

Deliberate action to cover-up and misguide everyone to look at west. While the clean-up is being done on east side.

There is certainly more to whatever is being said by Malaysia and US. It can be concluded that plane never flew west.

porterhouse

16th Mar 2014, 02:06

They selected heading, turned off the airway and passed out. And they woke up 45 min later changed another heading and passed out again. And again. How many childish stories do you have in store for us? Do you have clue what kind of rubbish you are spouting?

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 02:08

No, Helios did not disappear because it remained on its flight planned track to a destination which happened to be a capital city.

The difference here, the aircraft drifted off in a heading mode.

Come on all you experts. When you practise an explosive decompression in the simulator, how do you manage the flight path? By programming a waypoint and selecting LNAV or by selecting HDG?

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 02:10

Porterhouse,
Really, Google Helios. Read what the cabin crew were seen doing in the cabin while the pilots were slumped at the controls.

Oldmate

16th Mar 2014, 02:13

Couple of interesting airports around. Have a look at kangding and yushu batang. Both are many miles from the towns they service, with little around. Yushu batang also has an old disused airport only a few kilometres east of the newer one, might be possible to land there without attracting too much attention. Of course it would be very difficult to hide from the next passing satellite.

Lazerdog

16th Mar 2014, 02:14

Wasn't the crew oxygen bottle serviced recently? A slow leak, oxygen build up, and then an arc in the electrical bay setting it off could lead to an intense but short duration fire or explosion that breaches the hull. Those small ARINC 429 cables carrying ACARS and other data would be first to go. (When those cables go, you can not tune the VHF or HF as the control heads are ARINC 429 connected, so no communication is possible.) Minutes later, the transponder cables burn possibly.

During the fire and hull rupture, the crew is trying to figure out what happened, turning back to base as they enter hypoxia. Fire goes out, the tough T7 flys on to the Indian Ocean.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyaWdb1GPJM

GTC58

16th Mar 2014, 02:14

if you have a decompression, priority is to get on oxygen, then initiate an emergency descent to a safe altitude and the last action of the memory item sequence is to turn off the airway.

The Ancient Geek

16th Mar 2014, 02:17

Quote:
They selected heading, turned off the airway and passed out.
And they woke up 45 min later changed another heading and passed out again. And again. How many childish stories do you have in store for us? Do you have clue what kind of rubbish you are spouting?

There is no VERIFIED evidence of these subsequent course changes.

FWIW, I am a qualified pilot (DHC6 not jets) (retired) and also a qualified radio engineer so I am probably better qualified to debunk the stupid theories than some around here.
http://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/reply_small.gif (http://www.pprune.org/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=8379756&noquote=1)

The Wawa Zone

16th Mar 2014, 02:17

Hi Mr. Steak,

OK, so please enlighten us why this aircraft was zigzagging through the airspace, flying straight then making turns.

Until some one proves it had LNAV and VNAV command, and hit the waypoints and then did Rate 1's to the new track, I suggest that it was wandering.
Why, if a hypoxic pilot tries to enter a track back to KL but does looses consciouness half way through, depending where he is up to, there won't be any LNAV or VNAV.

Hypoxia will have you pressing the same button, repeating a small segment of a scan or repeating a checklist line, etc, until you drop off, and you will not be aware of it.

opsmarco

16th Mar 2014, 02:20

Whoever is in command of the investigation does have far more information than they are providing the press with.

If they were able to give us arcs for the last ping, they can do the same for all the other pings. By tracing those arcs, using satellite timestamps to calculate the time between each ping, wind data and calculated GS, it shouldn't be that difficult to calculate several possible routes for the aircraft, and then "precise" search areas...

I'm just a poor ground ops specialist, I suppose they have far better people working on it, but if I came out with that possibility, why wouldn't they? So yes, I suppose they have a good idea of the areas where to look...

porterhouse

16th Mar 2014, 02:21

There is no VERIFIED evidence of these subsequent course changes.There are VERIFIED heading changes, at least 4, but you don't like it, I understand, with about 200 nm straight flying between those heading changes. Don't make me laugh about your "radio" qualifications, are your there on the ground in Malaysia? If your are such experts who can tell from 8000 miles what's going on your expertise is missed by the world.

All of a sudden we have experts one with with 13,000 "commands" another a "radio engineer" and DC6. I am speechless, I am just a lowly PPL.

GTC58

16th Mar 2014, 02:21

The Wawa Zone:

If the airplane was in heading select on autopilot it would have maintained this heading until flame out. If with wandering you imply the autopilot was off it would have crashed after a short while without any pilot intervention.

flash8

16th Mar 2014, 02:23

OK, so please enlighten us why this aircraft was zigzagging through the airspace, flying straight then making turns.

Or the crew were disabled (via innocent or not so Innocent scenarios) and some poor clueless innocent individual was desperately trying to gain some sort of control via MCP twiddling, a/c soldiered along until fuel exhaustion way out in the Ocean.

rigbyrigz

16th Mar 2014, 02:23

Why do these (in)denials remind me of SilkAir 185?

hillberg

16th Mar 2014, 02:24

"Thunder Ball"
Someone, pax or crew took the plane. A loud noise is not an Explosion.
Planes flying along other airways is not out of control.

What are the underwriters doing?

Drama from this 20-20 hindsight & A dog /pony show hides the truth.
Governments take time to do anything (DMV?)
Why? pilot wants to become an Airheart?
Pilot wants to boost his early retirement?
Pilot is an islamic mole?
Pilot opened the door to the wrong skirt?
Lawn dart or bus to nowhere? Your call.

The Ancient Geek

16th Mar 2014, 02:26

There are VERIFIED heading changes, at least 4, with about 200 nm straight flying between them. Don't make me laugh about your "radio" qualifications, are your there on the ground in Malaysia?

WRONG.
The heading changes are reported but not verified. I suggest that you go back and read what few real facts that we have.

And why are you being so agressive, cool it and chill out.

RatherBeFlying

16th Mar 2014, 02:28

Given the 50/50 odds from the Inmarsat ping, there is the possibility that Uighurs and/or sympathisers had taken over and directed the a/c to some remote strip / landable area with the view to conduct a hostage negotiation with the Chinese regime.

Setting up military radars in the Himalayas looks to be quite a challenge. And likely one could fly below.

Avoiding CFIT would be a serious challenge.

Aircraft have been lost in the Andes above treeline, sometimes for decades. Survivors of one wreck were stuck for weeks until a party succeeded in walking out.

GTC58

16th Mar 2014, 02:31

Obviously all parties involved in the investigation have far more information and resources available then any of the posters here. If they came to a high probability conclusion what could have happened to the flight, I am sure that this is the most probable outcome. I can't believe how much nonsense is posted here and the arrogance of some posters thinking they know more then anyone involved in the investigation.

slats11

16th Mar 2014, 02:34

It seems that the pieces are slowly emerging to form a fairly coherent explanation.

Perhaps sadly, this doesn't surprise me. A few of us were suggesting this days ago, but kept getting deleted. Sadly I and perhaps a few others here have seen true evil and know what people can do.

A few here seem to be struggling with what we are learning, and are determined to stick with inexplicable "explanations"

Incidentally, you can be sure the authorities are monitoring this thread. There is always a long shot someone here might come up with something from left field they haven't though of. Also if there were any co-conspirators, there is a fair chance they will be watching. Plenty of arsonists are apprehended watching the fire. I don't believe there are any co-conspirators and belief this was a lone wolf. But you never know.

Art Griego

16th Mar 2014, 02:36

First off, those who aren't PROFESSIONAL PILOTS should keep their insane theories to a minimum. I myself am a retired pilot who flew with a major airline for 32 years.

But look, airlines these days... some days I'd walk out the cockpit and it looked like a prison riot had taken place. I'm talking cups everywhere, graffiti, and seat-backs which had been slashed with knives somehow. Ridiculous. Trying to get a cup of coffee without lipstick on the rim of the cup was impossible, and that was when the stewardesses weren't busy cooking whatever it is they thought they were cooking. And I can't count the number of times I had to go back and settle some beef between a flight crew member and a passenger, lest we have someone trying to open an emergency exit at 30,000 ft.

Point being it's obvious that something happened with the pilots, but lets not libel them by delving into their psychology without taking all of this into account. The the poor guys up front just might not have been able to stand the smell of the plane, and theres only so many times you can take being told that the lady in 23F wants a pillow while you're navigating mountains in a fog.

oldoberon

16th Mar 2014, 02:36

acad_1, the answer would be if a normal ACARS shutdown automatically sends a 'logging off now, bye' style of message or just goes Off like a transponder being turned off. Can someone on the usual receiving end of ACARS messages answer that ?

Northern or Southern arc ? By now, using earlier arcs and knowing the speed range out of the last primary fix near IGREX, the RCC should have calculated that one.

So, are SAR assets being deployed to the southern Indian Ocean, or not ??

Another question ! Did the aircraft actually fly through the VAMPI - GIVAL wpts and track out along the published routes, or were those wpts given as approxiamations of some wandering track ? That answer would infer a lot about LNAV 'piloting' or 'wandering'. Also, is any RMAF AD radar VNAV info out there (?), ie., were the 90 degree+ turns at/near the waypoints painted at a constant altitude, or at the high points of some phugoid ? (and you know what that means..)

Sorry, got no information about suicidal alien remote control gold thieves :)

Just after the 1st maps of the arcs came out way back today within a few pages that question arose and the answer was if ACARS is shut down the selected transmitter (only vhf on this aircraft) would send a signal stating ACARS turned off, if it just died i assume it wouldn't, he/they (who ever was flying it) couldn't turn off VHF 10 min earlier as still had to sign off from KL.

ACARS turned off according to a recent post because it would have sent out a depressurisation message, and the theory is he wanted that done before stating the navigation manoeuvres. Makes good sense to me.

200 pages in and someone adds the new fact about the depressure message would go out on ACARS.

clayne

16th Mar 2014, 02:37

This article as originally posted a few pages back by Andy and discussed by others, IMHO, nails the current situation.

Doomed airliner pilot was political fanatic: Hours before taking control of flight MH370 he attended trial of jailed opposition leader as FBI reveal passengers could be at a secret location | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581817/Doomed-airliner-pilot-political-fanatic-Hours-taking-control-flight-MH370-attended-trial-jailed-opposition-leader-sodomite.html)

ETA: Blue Amber, re rapid climb and descent - maybe the actions of an FO trying to restore control? JMO

This is complete nonsense.

1. Daily Mail UK (enough said).
2. Backing PKR in Malaysia and being distraught over the jailing of Ibrahim is hardly "political fanatacism." The Anwar Ibrahim issue has a long history and to think the 18k+ hour pilot just somehow snapped all of a sudden is very unlikely. His assumed issues with the current political climate are COMMON in Malaysia.
3. Stop following drama and Hollywood style news.

Oldmate

16th Mar 2014, 02:37

"Avoiding CFIT would be a serious challenge."

Practicing in a sim might help.

The Wawa Zone

16th Mar 2014, 02:41

GTC58,

If the airplane was in heading select on autopilot it would have maintained this heading until flame out. If with wandering you imply the autopilot was off it would have crashed after a short while without any pilot intervention.

If it went into the FL400+ level and had an upset event and recovered, I would suggest that someone was flying it at that point.
My point is that later, after failed attempts to enter a route back to WMKK or deciding in a debilitated state to hand fly it, the crew became unconscious and the aircraft was uncommanded.

As a 777 pilot, you appear to disagree that in this condition, given fuel burn and CG changes in flight, the dynamic stability of the aircraft would be sufficient allow it to remain in the air. How long would it have lasted, do you think ?

volcanicash

16th Mar 2014, 02:46

Has anybody asked what was in the cargo holds yet?

Yes, the Wall Street Journal. Quote:
"Malaysia Airlines confirmed Saturday [15th] that Flight 370 wasn't carrying any valuable cargo."

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Disappeared Through 'Deliberate Action,' Prime Minister Says - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579440293337311848)

GTC58

16th Mar 2014, 02:50

The B777 has a super critical wing, as such it is not really designed to have aerodynamic inherent stability. Without pilot inputs it doesn't take very long for the aircraft to depart its altitude and flight path in manual flight.

aviator1970

16th Mar 2014, 03:02

CVR would record the last two or three odd hours... the initial part is overwritten... earlier they'd use a continuous tape, nowadays they use solid state devices...In the present context the CVR wouldn't have anything from the early part of the sortie...

JRBarrett

16th Mar 2014, 03:06

I guess one of the first things the co-conspirators do after landing would be to wipe the CVR and DVDR, thus we may never know what happened even if the aircraft is found if it landed safely somewhere.

While some, (though not all) CVRs can have their stored audio erased on the ground by the press of a button, this is not the case with the DFDR. The only way that the Flight Data Recorder's contents could be "wiped" would be to remove it from its mounting rack and physically destroy it, or hide it where it could not be found.

However... although there is as yet no hard evidence that one (or both) pilots went "rogue" , and deliberately engineered the disappearance of the aircraft, IF that does turn out to be the case, I'd be willing to bet a month's salary that both the CVR and DFDR were disabled very early on by pulling their respective circuit breakers - meaning that even if the aircraft is eventually found, (either intact or in small pieces), that the "black boxes" will contain absolutely no data whatsoever covering the critical stages of the final flight.

That scenario would require that the CVR and DFDR CBs be in a location readily accessible to the flight crew. I have no idea if this is the case with the 777, but on all of the business jets I maintain, (Hawkers, Gulfstreams, EMB-135 etc) the CBs for both the CVR and DFDR are located on the flight deck, within easy reach of the crew.

aviator1970

16th Mar 2014, 03:22

Quote
Lets look at some facts or evidences:

Plane was at IGARI when it lost contact
Oil rig worker saw explosion or sort off
Other 8 people heard of explosion
Oil slick found in east (But Malaysia denied that its Jet fuel)
US7 was one of the first to reach the area
Statements coming from White-house (US) and PM (Malaysia)
Selective leaks from Pentagon / White House
Chinese satellite picked-up something (one sortie by Malaysia plane - and they rule that out)
SAR stopped on east side of Malaysia
Vietnam accuses Malaysia of not sharing information
Only Malaysian primary radar has picked up the plane. Hard to believe that India, Indonesia and other neighboring countries failed to detect. Indian radars are quite capable and they deny any intrusion (statements coming from low level officers, not PM or chief of military)
No debris in Bay of Bengal or Indian ocean.

All information or data coming from Malaysia or US. So far Malaysia has been very inconsistent in revealing/sharing information. Vietnam and China says and proposes something, Malaysia quick to issue a denial to that.

Deduction

Malaysia is hiding something of great magnitude
US is party and supplementing to whatever Malaysia is saying or hiding
Something big has happened that Malaysia is trying to cover-up
All data/information related to satellite etc is false and is being deliberately fed as afterthought

Possibility
MH370 never flew west
It had a failure with its transponder (at a wrong time)
Crew trying to navigate
US7 fleet present in that area, picked up the aircraft on their radar. Edgy and trigger happy action by them or someone.

Deliberate action to cover-up and misguide everyone to look at west. While the clean-up is being done on east side.

There is certainly more to whatever is being said by Malaysia and US. It can be concluded that plane never flew west.

Explosions/catastrophic failure at 39000 or even 25000 feet would leave a debris swath which would be miles long, with a large amount of it floating debris. Putting a transponder off is very easy without even accessing the CB panels. Once the transponder is off the ac is virtually a ghost aircraft.
Almost impossible to imagine India not picking up an aircraft of this size passing through its airspace.

ADS-B usually set on auto needs to be deliberately selected off with the FMC interface.

ACARS uses SATCOM as an alternate to VHF, but pinging doesn't happen randomly. To my limited knowledge it isnt like a modem pinging the server to 'keep alive'.

Giving credibility to some deliberate actions by individuals who have some vested interest.

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 03:24

The Ancient Geek (http://www.pprune.org/members/328920-the-ancient-geek) said

The tiny amount of VERIFYABLE evidence simply tells us that something went badly wrong. Apply a good dose of Occams Razor and...which you continue to explain as

...the simplest explanation is a catastrophic depressurisation, probably due to a structural issue. Cargo door, cockpit windshield, upper skin panel ...... many more possible. Even a birdstrike is possible - it has happened before at 37500 feet but I doubt if vultures would be flying at night. ...yet the pilot did nothing
- then this catastrophic event leads to the the ACARS going out ... and the pilots did nothing
- then Transponder fails ... and the pilots do nothing
- alarms are going off everywhere ... and the pilots do nothing
- next the pilots make their normal handover contact with ATC ... and tell them nothing
- at this point they pretty much instantly flip the plane around 180, but in the middle of it apparently ... pass out?
- now quick ascent ... pilots stay passed out
- this leads to stall and fall ... pilots stay passed out
- now maybe they wake up to avert the stall? ... must pass out again though
- next after about 20-30 mins they wake up and turn 90 degrees before ...passing out
- another maybe 5-10 mins pass I believe it was Godzilla comes in and blows he plane onto another course ... pilots still passed out
- another 20 mins, wake up and turn, then ... pass out again
- at this point maybe the plane has a straight enough pass to fly completely straight to crash site without being pinged by any countries radars ... pilots never woke up again

that is approximately what you call your "Occams Razor/simplest solution" (and some people actually agree with you here, amazingly)

...meanwhile ...

this is what some of the best minds in the Governments of seeming all Countries involved, as well as most experts and many people here (include mine):

- People who knew what they were doing did what they knew how to do

Wow, you know what - after typing it out, I can so totally see how our theory is just sooooo dang complicated and illogical and all that while yours is just so unbelievably simple!

... :ugh:

benh57

16th Mar 2014, 03:35

Wow, you know what - after typing it out, I can so totally see how our theory is just sooooo dang complicated and illogical and all that while yours is just so unbelievably simple!

Thank you. 'The Ancient Geek' seems to be ignoring any data that does not agree with his chosen 'simplest' theory.

LASJayhawk

16th Mar 2014, 03:41

JRBarrett: Can't swear on a 777 but on a NG737 all four flight recorder box breakers are in the cockpit (it gets power from both ac buses and both dc buses. CVR is in the cockpit as well. On the ACARS MU it has 2 breakers one on an ac buss and one on a dc buss. both on the flight deck as well.

It does seem like either the ACARS MU died at the worst possible time, or someone pulled the breakers.

The Wawa Zone

16th Mar 2014, 03:45

GTC58

Thanks, so therefore it's options for remaining in the air would be FMS commanded flight, or hand flying, and that it would be unable to rely on a third possibility of dynamic stability, to phugoid it's way along until fuel exhaustion or terrain impact at a low point of the amplitude.

Low roll stab will also indicate that the first divergences would occur in roll, and turning flight (or spiral flight) rather than more or less straight tracks would be the result. Would you agree ?

Tscottme

16th Mar 2014, 03:54

Wannabe Flyer

16th Mar 2014, 03:57

Is it possible for a skilled pilot to set a 777 down in calm waters like the hudson incident without breaking up the aircraft? If yes would the elt and the cvr activate if aircraft stayed in tact and sank?

Seems some one was intent on confusing searchers and has made every attempt successfully to do so. The undoing seems to be the immersat pings. If not for those the search would still be in the bay of bengal only maybe 5000 km away from real crash site.

This is a well thought out act of an individual with years if experience in aviation for a personal selfish reason with the sole intent to ensure it is kept a mystery and be declared unsolved. Hide the only parts that could tell the truth..... Wreckage and cvr. I do not subscribe to a theory of a 9/11 replay but a better thought out egyptair.

MountainBear

16th Mar 2014, 03:57

Given the new information and the resulting huge search area it strikes me that it has become much more likely that the plane and passengers are never going to be found, that we may never know why, of even what happened. What does the end game look like for this SAR effort? When will enough be enough? How long does it go on?

I ask such questions seriously. We are in unprecedented territory. Far from the search area being narrowed, which is typical, it has been dramatically expanded. From from knowing that the plane crashed...we do not even have any evidence of that. This is...to be blunt...extraordinary. It is one thing for Amelia's Earhart's little plane to go missing many decades ago and never be found. What are we going to do if this modern jetliner is never found? That's the worst case scenario now...not a hijacking...not a bomb...not a crash. The worst case scenario is that we never know.:\

pilotrob23

16th Mar 2014, 04:00

Since this investigation (at least publicly) is going down the sabotage or hijack route, did the captain and first officer know each other prior to 370? Interesting to see if they were good friends, or even bid to fly together (or swap) to fly this flight. Since proper planning and evidence of the crew "in on it", this seems like an interesting avenue. Again, like many others, I would like to know how much fuel was uplifted, what was on the cargo manifest, and what was found in their homes. Either way, a circus nonetheless.

Communicator

16th Mar 2014, 04:03

D.S. pertinently reminded us that the Malaysian government must have instantly recognized the primary radar track as MH370 since the “last contact” time of 2.40 am initially disclosed by Malaysia only makes sense on this basis. This makes all the intervening kerfuffle all the more surprising, to say the least.

Despite this clear track record (pardon the pun), the Malaysian PM’s remarks are still crafted around the concept that “we [Malaysia] had no reason to suspect that the aircraft that we tracked flying across our peninsula was MH370”.

Communicator said

Quote:
[Malaysian PM, paraphrased:] The primary radar track was only connected with MH370 when the relevance of Satcom ping information was appreciated some days later.

[D.S.]That is not correct. The Malaysia Government instantly recognized it as the plane, hence "last contact was 2:40" and "evidence to suggest the plane turned around" being relayed to the media on day 1 (remember, the initial thought by absolutely everyone everywhere was the plane was lost after 2 hours, not 1)

...

Hogger60

16th Mar 2014, 04:04

JRBarrett: Can't swear on a 777 but on a NG737 all four flight recorder box breakers are in the cockpit (it gets power from both ac buses and both dc buses. CVR is in the cockpit as well. On the ACARS MU it has 2 breakers one on an ac buss and one on a dc buss. both on the flight deck as well.

The 777 unlike the 737, does not have a lot of CB's in the cockpit. Neither the CVR nor the FDR CB's are accessible on the flight deck.

GarageYears

16th Mar 2014, 04:27

I haven't seen this mentioned in the thread, but since there are perhaps 100's of posts per hour apologies in advance if this is a repeat:

Given the 8.11AM time-stamp is valid for the last 'ping', this would put the flight in the air some 7.5 hours or so... this would put it about 2 hours past expected landing time - if the passengers were still alive, I'm pretty sure that more than one or two would have become mighty suspicious at least 2 hours previously...

Unfortunately, that fact alone would suggest that (a) they were incapacitated (likely through some cockpit induced hypoxic event earlier in the flight) or (b) there were a significant number of 'accomplices throughout the cabin keeping everyone under control.

I just can't imagine in this post 9-11 world a cabin full of people sitting around good as gold no matter what they were told. If nothing else, surely the cabin crew would also get suspicious?

Thoughts?

simon001

16th Mar 2014, 04:28

By virtue of the fact that almost 7 million people have viewed this thread, it is fair to say that this forum is recognized by a lot of people as a place where professional pilots give their input.

I expect amongst these people, are families of the victims in KL.

Can you imagine for a moment their angst reading the mass of wild theories?

Everybody wants more information. But what is known is already out there.

It is true that the absence of more facts is perplexing. But it seems to be feeding wild speculation.

Many contributors to this thread are convinced they know more than all the governments of the world who are working on this problem, which of course is just silly.

I come back to the thread once a day in the hope of finding some investigative gem from an industry expert, but in over 4,000 postings, knowledgeable posts are few and far between.

I think every possibility has been suggested. Then the follow on is criticism from someone with another theory. Not helpful.

Most of this comes from the fact that we don't have a lot to go on as to what happened, where the plane went, much less a motive or a strategy.

But in the absence of all these things just comes noise.

I imagine I am not alone as a reader who would appreciate far fewer postings in exchange for more informative input.

If you know something, post it. Otherwise in the absence of facts on the flight, speculation doesn't add any value.

buttrick

16th Mar 2014, 04:31

There would be no posts at all then!

Look at the title of the website!!
Professional Pilots RUMOUR Network

Earl

16th Mar 2014, 04:41

It seems the 777 may have some breakers in the E and E.
For some reporting ones to RR.
Transponder easy one in the center console.
ACARS once shut down would be useless also,
I listened to this for days also.
I hope then Mods dont delete this.
Seems they are suspecting the crew now.
Look at the backgrounds closely.
Captain was a pillar in his community.
F/o well maybe he did invite females to the cockpit.
Now tell me how many of us did that when young and the results?
Want me to post here?
Think we all know.
Why would a respected captain do something like this?, never.
Why would a young F/O do the same when he is having the time of his live with the girls.
We have all been there, if you say not you are a liar.
reality check here.

slats11

16th Mar 2014, 04:43

Agreed Garage.

Other clues would have been
1. Pilots not wanting cabin crew up front. No coffee. No meals. Not even a chat.
2. Sky show on IFE. This could have been turned off.
3. Failure of the sun to rise in front of them.
4. SMS on their phones as they crossed land. Been a bit of a surprise for a telco to welcome them to Malaysia or Thailand when they should have been over water.

Expect pax were out of the picture fairly early on.

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 04:43

Interesting statement from John Goglia, a former member of the National Transportation Safety Board, that the ACARs system was the source of the pings sent by SATCOM (not the SATCOM system itself as previously speculated).

Thus, the ACARS transmitter continued to send out blips that were recorded by the Inmarsat satellite once an hour for four to five hours after the transponder was turned off

MISSING MH370: 3 pieces of evidence point to jet's takeover - Latest - New Straits Times (http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-3-pieces-of-evidence-point-to-jet-s-takeover-1.515830?cache=03%252f7.198169%3Fpage%3D0%3Fkey%3Dmalaysia%2 F7.646745%2F7.697870%2F7.693584&ModPagespeed=noscript)

GvonSprout

16th Mar 2014, 04:44

There is a video of the pilots passing through security which was posted on 10 March in YouTube. I've no idea how it got out but it shows:

One of the pilots pinged the metal detector alarm.

The other didn't.

The cursory pat down of the pilot who "pinged" the detector did not establish what item set off the alarm.

I've tried to post a link before but probably, as I'm new to the site, I can't post attachments.

However if you search for "MH370 security" on YouTube you'll find it near the top

This may be of some comfort to those who knew the f/o

Durou

16th Mar 2014, 04:44

"no human intervention"? but the waypts were also programmed. Clearly by the flight crew says Mary Schiavano.

Its actually all sorta looking like the mastermind wanted to go to a remote ditching spot with all the fuel used up, for an attempt to duplicated the great Hudson River feat with a lightened load? And maybe did??

People have been wondering why, if suicide, it took so long to do it. Looking at the profile presented over the last week, I cannot see this man being happy to destroy his plane by diving from a great height - I feel you may be close to the truth there.

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 04:50

I've tried to post a link before but probably, as I'm new to the site, I can't post attachments.

this one?

bpL1i63lsas

INTEL101

16th Mar 2014, 04:55

I made a suggestion about the cargo twice, but it was deleted by the mods both times. Neither time was it profane or derogatory.

On a separate subject the Straits Times are reporting that:

According to WNYC, the missing plane could have landed in 634 runways in 26 different countries.

"Data from X-Plane provides coordinates for runways around the world. A Boeing 777 pilot is quoted in Slate as estimating a runway length requirement of 5,000 feet. A recent Wall Street Journal article quoted sources stating the flight could have continued for 2,200 nautical miles from its last known position," WNYC said.

and there are some dark rumblings from the security services about the uses to which a rogue 777 could be put.

madmufti

16th Mar 2014, 05:05

Regarding security checking of crews in SE Asia, I can name at least 2 airports I visit regularly where crews are NOT challenged if they trigger the metal detector when they pass through security. Both are Islamic states.

Believe me KL is actually one of the better ones. Not as good as SIN or HKG but better than many.

Razoray

16th Mar 2014, 05:05

Now, the US Navy needs to head back from their expensive cruise in the Indian Ocean and check their sonar systems for a ocean bed search where the transponder stopped.

I think you stopped paying attention....:ugh:

skytrax

16th Mar 2014, 05:05

Based on what we have so far (assuming that satelite ping story is true) I belive investigators are working with a few scenarios. It is clear that someone flew this plane off its route. In what circumstances and who did it it is still a unknown to us but we can speculate:

1. Both the pilots did it
2. One of the pilots did it when the other one went to the toilet
3. One of the pax, or more than one, hijacked the plane. You got to consider that the individual flying had some good knowledge about how to fly a jet, disconnect communication systems, fly under the radar etc
4. Memeber(s) of the cabin crew took over the plane and did it.
5. Pilots together with the cc did it

I belive its more important to find the plane at this point rather than figure out what happened exactly.
It amazes me how the malayasian investigators waited a week before searching the houses of the pilots for any clues, signs of foul play. Its not about disrespecting them, its absolutly normal to take into consideration any possibility when you dont know what happened. Thats from an investigation point of view.
Sorry, but before you figure out what's happened, eveyone involved/at the scene is a suspect.

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 05:05

Communicator (http://www.pprune.org/members/427660-communicator) said

Despite this clear track record (pardon the pun), the Malaysian PM’s remarks are still crafted around the concept that “we [Malaysia] had no reason to suspect that the aircraft that we tracked flying across our peninsula was MH370”. Initial remarks are "last contact 2:40" while last primary radar contact just happens to be... 2:40

Yeah, obviously someone connected the flight path instantly but someone else apparently didn't like them saying it and the "official" position was blurred/changed/danced around for a while before being changed back a full week later after it was "corroborated" by the satellite (the roughly dozen or so eye witness accounts from between 1:30-1:45 that night saying the plane went back over them heading West apparently wasn't good enough corroboration- they needed to wait for actual satellite data to know what they knew all along)

This is specifically what was reported in the news cycles on March 8th:
According to a press statement by Malaysia Airline Systems Bhd, Subang Air Traffic Control reported that it lost contact with Flight MH370 at 2.40 am on Saturday.then we have March 9th:
"We are trying to make sense of this," the Malaysian air force chief told a media conference. "The military radar indicated that the aircraft may have made a turn back and in some parts, this was corroborated by civilian radar."March 10th
Berita Harian quotes Air Force chief General Tan Sri Rodzali Daud as saying the plane was last detected by military radar at in the vicinity of Pulau Perak, in the Straits of Malacca, at 2.40 a.m. on Saturday, hundreds of kilometres off course. An AP reporter was also standing right there, hears it, and supposedly verifies the statement with multiple (unnamed) Malaysian Officials

March 11th
"I wish to state that I did not make any such statements as above. What occurred was that the Berita Harian journalist asked me if such an incident occurred as detailed in their story. However, I did not give any answer to the question.

"Instead, what I said to the journalist was, 'Please refer to the statement which I made on 9 March 2014, during the press conference with the Chief of Defence Forces at the Sama-Sama Hotel, Kuala Lumpur International Airport'," the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) chief said in a statement late last night.
His March 9th press conference statement, of course, being that there was corroborated evidence it had turned back.

So yeah, it isn't like this very issue (as well as their issue coming to grips with this issue) hasn't been pretty clear since day 1 - but still, as you say, they work under the concept that “we [Malaysia] had no reason to suspect that the aircraft that we tracked flying across our peninsula was MH370” because... why exactly?

Does the Left hand not know what the Right is doing? Do they just desperately want to ignore anything they don't want to know? (many people here show that quality, so that is kind of understandable I guess...) Do they think they can will the plane into a body of water they want it to be in? Maybe get the Shaman to use his magic and make it be true?

...no matter, all those countries wasting all that time in a Gulf of Thailand that officials pretty much knew the entire time that the plane didn't crash into - and many here selectively believing very few things the Malaysian Officials tell us while ignoring absolutely everything else they and other Governments say

Reality is, the plane turned around and they knew it instantly

Ramjet555

16th Mar 2014, 05:10

Excellent post above.
It's an example of how disorganized they are.

Take a look at the pictures of debris taken by the

Vietnamese search aircraft. The the Chinese Satellite.
Both excellent work.

The tragedy is none of the searchers seem to be able to
calculate the water currents and effect of wind on the
debris.

Not a lot is available publicly that I could find but the
movement appears to be where it could be reasonably
expected to float in current and wind.

The tragedy is, no Sonar search has started.

I predict within 24 hours the penny will drop and suddenly a
swarm of boats with sonar will want to be first to find it.

Toruk Macto

16th Mar 2014, 05:22

Many block ops A/C flying around this part of the world . Its getting worse for getting held up or vectored around unidentified A/C . Rad alt going off in the cruise .
I've flown with ex military who tell stories of trying to look like commercial by using airways the disappearing into thin air . Stories of military hiding under jets are commen around here .
Thoughts go out to families affected .

xcitation

16th Mar 2014, 05:24

Assuming the hijack hypothesis are we talking a very skilled pilot with planning or an extremely lucky amateur?

Data points:

Precise timing of disappearance at the minute when switching between Malaysia and Vietnam airspace.
FL450 excursion when heavy requires skillful handling at performance limits (maximum energy climb). [contested by some posters with experience on type. However service ceiling is not absolute ceiling!]
Cruise at FL295 which avoids outbound/inbound traffic.
Follows border between Thailand/Malaysia when crossing peninsula.
Minimal air defense monitoring at night - opportunity to leave the area before dawn when full air defense is active.
A/c avoids areas with active radar coverage.

TheShadow

16th Mar 2014, 05:25

jcubpilot #4053 page 203
Someone took the time to highlight a massive security threat with regards to the 777 E&E. Given that this information will find its way to anyone who wants it, the only remaining group left out is the general public and they're the ones who can demand change. There is only one reason this threat still exists - it's a financial burden to fix it.

Yes my detailed treatise on what may have happened onboard MH370 in respect of that vulnerability was quickly removed by the PpruneGods as was the later detailed post in support by Woodja51 (wherein he provided details of the various respected institutions - about 20 in all, including the aviation faculty at UNSW Armidale - who'd been trying to get this E&E bay hatch security anomaly addressed). He even linked to a youtube video depicting the detail. The crux of these concerns is that most (if not all) avionics systems can be easily disabled from outside the cockpit....and that this fact can place the pilots in a parlous position as their ability to navigate and control (or even see at night) is progressively disabled. This can be done without pax being aware of their imminent or ultimate fate.

But not to worry. It's now in the hands of a respected aviation journo (Pulitzer holder) and posted on other forums as a deleted Pprune post. Hopefully Woodja51 will do likewise.

It's a pity that Captain Pprune decided to sell Pprune to the censorious present owners. Danny would never have removed posts for spurious reasons of perceived security threat. Then again he ran the show prior to 911.

IMHO (as I said to the journo who I used to work with as Editor-in-Chief of a major aviation safety mag):
"But I'm of the view that "too late/ the horse has bolted"." i.e. MH370 was likely the first such terrorist exploitation of this glaring industry-wide security vulnerability."It's not as if it's a subject that's sacrosanct secure: see HawkEye Media Boeing 777 Avionics Compartment VR Panoramic Photography (http://tinyurl.com/n64n2fj)

(stop/zoom in and rotate for microscopic details of the 777 E&E Bay interior).

It's indeed unfortunate that the industry-preferred (and Malaysian) slant on MH370 is likely to be a pilot-suicide scenario.... with any dissent and viable alternative propositions being universally suppressed by the cost-factors bean-counters and bolstered by the political unacceptability of admitting any sins of blatant omission on E&E accessibility (complete with an FAA nod of approval). MAS liability would also be minimized or zero'd out by a pilot suicide finding - so for that to be the "across the board" choice of a country and industry under siege is quite understandable (however morally insupportable it might also be).

The turn shortly before the transponders were powered down may have been the result of an FA's advice to the cockpit that men had descended into the E&E bay. The pilots, noting a loss of comms, may have decided that their only option was to turn back and await further developments. Navigation and flight control could've then become increasingly difficult as systems were rendered inert.

Because the eventual MH370 report will have to address this E&E ingress/invasion aspect (or be laughed at derisively), "truth will out" and the situation will consequentially be addressed by hardware changes and regulation. Hopefully, but that will be some years downstream. In the interim, nothing breeds imitation like success.... and that should send a shiver up the collective pax spine. Maybe we will witness the rebirth of the sky marshall concept? .... as an interim fix.

If you repeat something often enough, it becomes embedded in the popular psyche: "The Transponder and Flight Data STOPPED indicating a catastrophic explosion." i.e. until the next catchcry takes over with new impetus: "Somebody deliberately switched off the comms and transponder".

I wonder whether they are invading and searching the home of the MAS mechanic who was travelling onboard MH370? Did he have a role to play in disabling systems in the belly of the beast? Given the difficulty of ever now recovering the DFDR/CVR it's improbable that it will ever emerge that it was never the elephant in the room, but the elephant below the room.

Heli-phile

16th Mar 2014, 05:33

I'm staggered by the amazing arrogance of the numerous posters who think I, and no doubt the vast majority of subscribers to this forum actually give a flying hoot as to what they think, guess or insist to be the definitive truth about this ongoing story. As a pilot I keep checking back to this site to see if any fellow industry professionals have gleaned any further insight into the event. I wish there was a way for me to block posts from particular regular offenders who constantly pipe up and spout their ill informed and occasionally delusional opinion.
News yes please
Rumour Lets hear it!
Your opinion....save it for the cat, shout it at the telly or drone on to the long suffering wife, but don't write screeds of it.

I DO NOT CARE

knackeredII

16th Mar 2014, 05:34

Icarus2001

16th Mar 2014, 05:49

I've seen no report or questions re the initial fuel load. Although it may be common to carry more than planned fuel, it would give some idea of intentions if it was significantly different from plan or from the crews normal practice.

Yes it would.

As a SAR worker in a previous role I will bet my house that the PEOPLE RUNNING this SAR operation knew the fuel load on day one. It is fundamental to any SAR operation, fuel exhaustion time.

Just because the DCA, military and PM who front the press conference don't mention it ad nauseum in no way infers that they do not know. In fact I would also bet my house that the SAR operations staff know a great deal more than has been released.

Why? Why do they not share it? Because there is a very high probability that this will become a crime investigation. Even a non malevolent incident would require a police investigation due to deaths, if that occured. Therefore it is not a good idea to release into the public arena information that builds a case or otherwise.

There seems to be an attitude on here that THEY should tell US EVERTHING they know. Sorry it will not happen. This seems to be worse from those who do not work in the industry.

So, do not expect all information to be released NOW. What looks like contradiction and prevarication at the press conferences is all related to this.

All will be revealed, in the meantime find something else to do.

One last question...If a Surgeons Rumour Network existed on the web and a well known surgeon killed three people in a week would you guys all feel entitled to get on there and discuss surgery and hospital procedures? If no, then why is it okay to come on to a PILOTS rumour network and give us all your OPINIONS based on NO EXPERIENCE or KNOWLEDGE of what actually happens on a jet in front of the cockpit door?

EXEK1996

16th Mar 2014, 05:50

On all probabilities its in the southern Indian Ocean. Suicide / hijack whatever but a deliberate act by someone or someones. Engines running at 7hrs is not a good sign given fuel exhaustion would have been minutes away.

The RAAF are deploying for a search along the 40 deg line area. Maybe a P3 will get lucky as I believe JORN was not operating. I assume that the depths will be too great for a CVR/FDR recovery assuming any wreckage is ever located to pinpoint them.

Will go down as a great aviation mystery. I wish it were in the Stan's but if it was it would no longer be a secret.

skytrax

16th Mar 2014, 05:50

To the ppl here that want news and info..............thats the problem guys...There is little known to authorities what happened to this aircraft. When there such a lack of info and such high interest related to the matter, the result is a high amount of assumptions and opinions of "what it might have happened".
Investigators are using the same method. Based on the little they have.....they have to assume and try eliminate possibilities one by one.
Unfortunately, this is the sitution and until more is revealed assumptions and opinions are still gonna come. As long these assumptions are pertinent and the opinions are informed I dont see the problem.

Whittle

16th Mar 2014, 05:57

I am a Scientist in an industry other than aviation & was about to apply William of Okham’s principle (‘Okham’s Razor’) to the detective process but RifRaf3 beat me to it. Judging from some subsequent posts there is clearly some misunderstanding as to how it should be applied.
Basically W of O was a 13th century logician, mathematician and philosopher way ahead of his time. His ‘razor’ principle, which is in widespread use today in arriving at solutions to scientific quandaries, involves 'paring away’ (with the razor) the least significant information to leave a core of significant facts with which to arrive at the most likely explanation. This will not always be the correct answer, but on the balance of probability it will in more cases than not.
So in this case, we have some knowns (definite facts); some potential information that could have basis (‘from Government sources wishing to remain anonymous’) ; some wild speculation and some outright conspiracy theories.
In the significant category, other than the aircraft has disappeared and is now missing, he would have included the time interval between switching off different communications systems and the apparent navigation between waypoints towards the west that were not on the original flight plan, so Okham would have said that someone is apparently still in charge of the plane and flying it, making ditching or crashing in the South China Sea highly improbable & to be eliminated. Other facts that Okham might have kept in there, but down the list are the fact that this happened at night, with an ER variant of the aircraft (so potentially long range); take off from a Muslim country; and access to a wide expanse of the Indian Ocean with only a narrow peninsula to cross and outrun military radar.
Being way ahead of his time, Okham also knows that, (contrary to some earlier posts) oil slicks can easily be detected by satellite (I use this technology) and that the wreckage has not yet been found, despite the technology being available to many countries and that there is therefore a significant possibility that this aircraft is now on the ground. Okham would also have concluded that this was meticulously planned, way ahead of time, pushing suicide down the list of possibilities.
There we must leave Okham and add some conclusions of our own. An obvious motive might be ransom money, but no one has yet asked for any. The significant possibility that this aircraft was taken for a more sinister motive must now surely now be very high on the list. If so, whatever may be being planned is unlikely to be years or even months away, because the likelihood of the location of the aircraft being found/revealed by informers etc will increase rapidly with time. It is unlikely that someone would steal an aircraft (if that is what has happened) and then start thinking of things that they could do with it. Although this is only a possibility, one would hope that governments of susceptible countries are quietly organising the putting in place or checking of instruments of maximum vigilance to quickly & effectively respond to any threat. Skytrax is right – find the plane.

opsmarco

16th Mar 2014, 05:59

To all those who keep asking about cargo, who speculate on how much gold could have been carried, estimating it to 4300kg because of the 50 empty seats, etc.

- Full flights are rare!, and actually loadfactor wasn't that bad...

- Does any of you have access to the actual loadsheet, to confirm the aircraft was either limited to ZFW, TOW or LDW, and what was the actual underload? Don't think so, information must be protected, right now, anyway...

- Standby passengers (staff) are usually the last passengers accepted on any flight, their late acceptance, until proved otherwise, can be related to a long list of reasons other than weight limitations.

So HOW can any of you get any speculative figures regarding cargo, weight limitations due to huge cargo loads, or anything? I've read every single post that is currently present in this thread, as well as many more who got erased (including one that was mine), and I haven't seen any ACTUAL DATA on those matters! Particularly on a matter that keeps being discussed, again, again and again every 5-6 pages.

So, for those who don't know anything about weights, and in order to stop speculation without any single proof, let's do some calculations. I'm no expert on the 777-200ER (more of an Airbus guy), but, well, basic weight calculations are the same whatever aircraft you work on. Thru Google, I found DOW/MZFW/MTOW/MLDW for another operator's 777-200ER, and differences shouldn't be more than 2-3 tons, depending on the equipment and cabin fitting.

Let's assume a Dry Operating Weight of 150'500kg
A Maximum Zero Fuel Weight of 195'044kg
A Maximum Take-Off Weight of 264'897kg (there's a second variant just short of 300 tons, but let's do it with the short MTOW, here, since it's not that important as we'll see later)
A Maximum Landing Weight of 208'652kg
227 passengers, including 5 children (don't remember the exact figure, sorry)

Someone, maybe 1000 posts ago, said departure fuel should be around 50'000kg for this flight duration. Let's assume landing fuel should be at least 10'000kg, which makes a trip fuel of 40'000kg.

ZFW = DOW+222 passengers at 76kg (IATA adult standard weight)+5 children at 35kg (IATA standard as well)+30kg luggage per passenger (quite high, but, well, not that important = 150'500+16'872+175+6810 = 174'355kg vs. 195'044kg = 20'689kg underload

TOW = ZFW + Take-Off Fuel = 224'355kg vs. 264'897kg = 40542kg underload

LDW = TOW - Trip fuel = 184'355kg vs. 208'652kg = 24'297kg underload

Of course, the lowest underload is our actual true limitation, which means we have, available for cargo and according to our calculations, over 20.5 tons. Maybe some 777 jockeys would like to tell us how usual it is to carry that much cargo (again, never worked on the 777-200ER), but seems quite a heavy load IF weight was an issue on MH370.

And for purists, I know, not the right sequence of calculations, but this post isn't to train people on preparing loadsheets, it's just to provide some numbers to try and calm down speculation on cargo when no data at all is available.

Xeptu

16th Mar 2014, 06:00

Makay the oil rig observer, remember him.

Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.

He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.

I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"

jugofpropwash

16th Mar 2014, 06:04

The turn shortly before the transponders were powered down may have been the result of an FA's advice to the cockpit that men had descended into the E&E bay. The pilots, noting a loss of comms, may have decided that their only option was to turn back and await further developments. Navigation and flight control could've then become increasingly difficult as systems were rendered inert.

You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"???

G-ARVH

16th Mar 2014, 06:05

I've seen no report or questions re the initial fuel load. Although it may be common to carry more than planned fuel, it would give some idea of intentions if it was significantly different from plan or from the crews normal practice

You will not be getting any report on the aircraft fuel plan or fuel uplift. Even if it were provided it wouldn’t make any difference. The fuel loaded for the route in question will be standard for the time of year taking into consideration a multitude of factors. The Captain may elect to stick on a few extra tonnes and if he did so that would be quite normal and acceptable in all the circumstances.

Oldpilot55

16th Mar 2014, 06:15

When I was a spotter and listened to VHF radio from my home in Glasgow, elevation 100' or so I could see contrails over Belfast, a distance of approx 100 nautical miles. The trails were very low to the horizon (<10°) but very definitely over Belfast since there was no traffic over Prestwick. This was late daylight, winter, high pressure so cloudless and highlighted by a low sun.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen.

RifRaf3

16th Mar 2014, 06:17

Agreed and repeated, yet again - the report on fuel will not be forthcoming for a variety of reasons. However, if it did and the fuel load was above what was reasonable for the w/x, then it would add some weight to possible intentionals. Just another potential clue, not proof.

Lawyers are now involved, as is big money and this frames many decisions. Some of the logic needs to be viewed from their position and not Mr Ockham's.

Wannabe Flyer

16th Mar 2014, 06:22

Indian media reporting Malaysian govt have asked them to suspend search in bay of bengal and andamans.

Looks like a southern track now

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 06:25

Xeptu (http://www.pprune.org/members/4331-xeptu) says

Makay the oil rig observer, remember him.

Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.

He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.

I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"

Makay mapped out his GPS location for us

(as seen here Oil rig worker saw Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 go down: report - National | Globalnews.ca (http://globalnews.ca/news/1202910/oil-rig-worker-saw-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-go-down-report/) )

http://vipmedia.globalnews.ca/2014/03/oilrig1.png

Go ahead, you remind us how it is possible he saw the crash from his location - but remember, physics still exist in this, the real world, despite their inconvenience for you in this calculation

Makay likely did see something. What that was, who the heck knows - it sure as heck wasnt the plane though. That we know because A) Physics B) the plane went the other way anyway(!!!)

...so my question to you becomes, despite it being physically impossible for him to see the plane, are we to just make believe the plane is there as to not hurt his feelings when he returns from the rig?

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 06:26

Indian media reporting Malaysian govt have asked them to suspend search in bay of bengal and andamans.

Looks like a southern track now

Why? Have they stopped looking in Pakistan & Afghanistan?

Hempy

16th Mar 2014, 06:33

I will say that in my 20 years in this industry that this is the strangest incident I think I've come across 8 days after the fact. One can only wonder that if the correct IFER/SAR procedures had been followed from the outset that this whole episode may have been in a totally different place right now. It just goes to prove that despite ICAO 'recommendations' you still need to be careful operating in 3rd world FIRs..

RifRaf3

16th Mar 2014, 06:34

A bit unfair. He's done a good report as best he can. It's just that lots of phenomena occur at night over the sea that are not easily explain. A common one is the bright lights from squid boats that reflect off clouds or are refracted by inversions. Space debris is falling frequently also. Oil fires are often briefly refracted. You see this over the middle East with the right cloud conditions.
We cannot entirely rule his observation out; it's just improbably MH370.

mmurray

16th Mar 2014, 06:36

His ‘razor’ principle, which is in widespread use today in arriving at solutions to scientific quandaries, involves 'paring away’ (with the razor) the least significant information to leave a core of significant facts with which to arrive at the most likely explanation. This will not always be the correct answer, but on the balance of probability it will in more cases than not.

That isn't how I usually see it used. Occam's razor is about shaving away "hypthoseses" not "facts". As wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor) puts it

It states that among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 06:37

OldPilot55 said

When I was a spotter and listened to VHF radio from my home in Glasgow, elevation 100' or so I could see contrails over Belfast, a distance of approx 100 nautical miles. The trails were very low to the horizon (<10°) but very definitely over Belfast since there was no traffic over Prestwick. This was late daylight, winter, high pressure so cloudless and highlighted by a low sun.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen. He was 370 miles away

http://tvaraj.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/location-of-aircraft-last-seen-on-radar-screen-and-eye-witness-location-of-crash2.jpg?w=584&h=318

TheShadow

16th Mar 2014, 06:37

JugofPropwash said: (apropos Shadow post 16th Mar 2014 05:25 "The Elephant outside the Room")
You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"???

What if it was a single MAS Engineer with credentials? There was one aboard. I believe the hatch in the fwd galley area isn't visibly apparent to pax. Can't imagine an F/A not being duped in this scenario (but may well check with the flight-deck after consulting the chief purser). The hatch has been plotted by then. Terrorists can look just like any other pax until they declare their hand.

G-ARVH

16th Mar 2014, 06:38

Agreed Rif Raf... Parallax Error perhaps?

Airbubba

16th Mar 2014, 06:41

A scathing review of the MH 370 search situation from the New York Times wire:

Series of errors by Malaysia mounts, complicating the task of finding flight MH370

Michael Forsythe & KEITH BRADSHER,NYT News Service | Mar 16, 2014, 11.12 AM IST

SEPANG(Malaysia): The radar blip that was Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 did a wide U-turn over the Gulf of Thailand and then began moving inexorably past at least three military radar arrays as it traversed northern Malaysia, even flying high over one of the country's biggest cities before heading out over the Strait of Malacca.

Yet inside a Malaysian Air Force control room on the country's west coast, where American-made F-18s and F-5 fighters stood at a high level of readiness for emergencies exactly like the one unfolding in the early morning of March 8, a four-person air defense radar crew did nothing about the unauthorized flight. "The watch team never noticed the blip," said a person with detailed knowledge of the investigation into Flight 370. "It was as though the airspace was his."

It was not the first and certainly not the last in a long series of errors by the Malaysian government that has made the geographically vast and technologically complex task of finding the $50 million Malaysia Airlines jet far more difficult.

A week after the plane disappeared, the trail is even colder as the search now sprawls from the snowy peaks of the Himalayas to the empty expanses of the southern Indian Ocean. Nobody knows yet whether the delays cost the lives of any of the 239 people who boarded the flight to Beijing at Kuala Lumpur's ultramodern airport here. But the mistakes have accumulated at a remarkable pace...

Series of errors by Malaysia mounts, complicating the task of finding flight MH370 - The Times of India (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/Series-of-errors-by-Malaysia-mounts-complicating-the-task-of-finding-flight-MH370/articleshow/32128686.cms)

It seems that the earlier speculation here about the 'A' team being off duty on the weekend at the military radar sites was on target. :eek:

Coagie

16th Mar 2014, 06:45

jugofpropwash: "You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"??? "

A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed. Maybe such a mechanic was "in on it", or maybe his screwdriver slipped, frying some of the electronics, starting a series of events that led to the disappearance of the 777.

givemewings

16th Mar 2014, 06:56

A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed.

Would you say that would be a 'usual' practice? In my experience I've had engineers 'ride along' only twice in more than 6 years- once was an overwater sector and an insurer requirement to prevent unsched overnight in an unfavorable port... the other was an empty ferry sector.

Damn straight if someone came up to me saying they wanted in to the E&E bay during flight I'd be calling the captain first.

If they forced their way in I'd be doing a lot more than standing there to watch!

Sadly I'd guess this points to the CC being unable, or as has been put forward, 'someone' in the airline telling them that it was kosher... don't think that is as likely as the first one though...

knackeredII

16th Mar 2014, 06:57

You will not be getting any report on the aircraft fuel plan or fuel uplift. Even if it were provided it wouldn’t make any difference. The fuel loaded for the route in question will be standard for the time of year taking into consideration a multitude of factors. The Captain may elect to stick on a few extra tonnes and if he did so that would be quite normal and acceptable in all the circumstances.

G-ARVH, you don't have to lecture me on the ins and outs of fuel planning. I'm well aware of how it works and also a regular operating into Beijing. The point of my question was that if there was a significant difference from the plan without weather considerations, or from the Capt's normal extra fuel carriage, then that would be significant.

It's a very obvious question to an experienced operator but it hasn't been addressed in public. Someone's flight plan was different to MAS, whose plan was it?

Neogen

16th Mar 2014, 06:57

CodyBlade

16th Mar 2014, 07:01

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 07:02

wow... Just stumbled upon something that I had completely missed until now

"We informed Malaysia on the day we lost contact with the flight that we noticed the flight turned back west but Malaysia did not respond,"

That is Vietnam’s deputy minister of transport, Pham Quy Tieu, and the quote was reported at least 4 days ago

(as can be seen here Vietnam suspends air search for missing Malaysian jet | NDTV.com (http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/vietnam-suspends-air-search-for-missing-malaysian-jet-494592) )

So that means
A) Vietnam has the plane on radar turning around, and tried to tell Malaysia that day
B) Malaysia knew they had it on their radar at 2:40 in the Straights anyway

...yet still they let 14 countries waste 8 days in the Gulf looking for a plane that wasn't ever there.

Unbelievable

Propduffer

16th Mar 2014, 07:03

It might well be that the reason nobody was watching the Military radar that night is because nobody was assigned to watch the scope, the operator(s) may have been on standby in case they were needed. I will add another voice to a couple of previous posts - many people have an exaggerated view of military capabilities / readiness. This was on a sleepy Malaysian night shift in peacetime conditions, not West Germany at the height of the cold war or on any cocaine smuggling route. There may be valid reasons to criticize the Malaysian government but this is not one of them.

Another point I would like to mention is that the reason that the ACARS was turned off and the aircraft "soared" to a higher altitude appears to some of us (it has been alluded to here but I may be the first to come out and state it bluntly) as if the man at the controls wanted to prevent data transmission of the fact that that the cabin pressure had been vented to ambient outside air pressure. The increased altitude appears to have been to insure the least amount of resistance for the shortest time from the people in the back of the plane.

EXEK1996

16th Mar 2014, 07:05

As per my last post PM Tony Abbott has just announced that 2 x AP3C's will be sent to search on the 40 deg line the Indian Ocean.

Given the B777 range ring on the 40 deg line I imagine that the P3 will be limited in its search time at the extremities of the range ring. Any P3 drivers able to comment. I would suggest an aircraft carrier is going to be the only option unless there can be some descent sat coverage.

If you want to make sure no one finds you this is the place.

Anyway good luck to no 10 / 11 SQDN's

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 07:05

Neogen (http://www.pprune.org/members/310613-neogen) said

However, why was MacKay's email dismissed so quickly is a point.

again, 370 miles away

http://tvaraj.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/location-of-aircraft-last-seen-on-radar-screen-and-eye-witness-location-of-crash2.jpg?w=584&h=318

smiling monkey

16th Mar 2014, 07:09

You will not be getting any report on the aircraft fuel plan or fuel uplift. Even if it were provided it wouldn’t make any difference. The fuel loaded for the route in question will be standard for the time of year taking into consideration a multitude of factors. The Captain may elect to stick on a few extra tonnes and if he did so that would be quite normal and acceptable in all the circumstances.

How did you come to that conclusion? How do you know it was standard? The captain may have requested more than standard and if he did, then you'd have to ask why. That's the whole point of people here wanting to know what the fuel load was for the flight.

auraflyer

16th Mar 2014, 07:11

So far, pretty much all political/terror related scenarios end with: "But why has no-one come forward to claim responsibility?"

If there was foul play, why couldn't that have been the *intention*, i.e. making this event be a paradigm shift, just as Sept 11 was?

Prior to Sept 11, hijacks ended with landing & making demands. Which is what the Sept 11 hijackers indeed broadcast to the passengers and to ATC.* But they changed the paradigm, as we know, and those statements were active misinformation.

Why change the paradigm again? To sow the maximum amount of fear and uncertainty into commercial transportation -- make a modern first world jet appear to disappear into thin air, with no ability to find it. (Because whatever happened to it has happened somewhere *well away* from its last known position.) A crash is unsettling, but can be dealt with. A simple disappearance with nothing more -- no debris, no recorded crash, no demands, with everyone looking 1,000s of NM away -- would inflict maximum uncertainty. It already has inflicted a lot, but imagine how much more there would be if the pinging wasn't there, and especially if the pilot had evaded Malaysian radar?

That could be the aim itself. So a lack of any claim of responsibility may no longer be a pointer against foul play.

Remember, bin Laden's strike was symbolically at the three limbs of the USA - economic (4 planes + 2 towers); military (Pentagon); and political (intended target of UA93 was likely the Capitol). This could be a strike at one, the easiest to get to (economic).

* United 93, which had the only CVR to survive, recorded the pax being told "Here's the captain. I would like to tell you all to remain seated. We have a bomb aboard, and we are going back to the airport, and we have our demands. So, please remain quiet." On AA 11, Atta told ATC "We have some planes. Just stay quiet, and you'll be O.K. We are returning to the airport."

Kiwiconehead

16th Mar 2014, 07:11

Given the B777 range ring on the 40 deg line I imagine that the P3 will be limited in its search time at the extremities of the range ring. Any P3 drivers able to comment. I would suggest an aircraft carrier is going to be the only option unless there can be some descent sat coverage.

Staging out of Cocos Islands should give them good endurance?

http://goo.gl/maps/4cDSX

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 07:14

As per my last post PM Tony Abbott has just announced that 2 x AP3C's will be sent to search on the 40 deg line the Indian Ocean.

I hope the SAR have more information than just 40° line. That was only the last ping, what were the previous pings and the heading.

If the aircraft was down south, it likely made it much further west than the 40° line, and that should only be the starting point.

OleOle

16th Mar 2014, 07:15

Shadoko answered:

And then fly evading detection until sunrise: it will be along the south arc of the last ping, after flying for the last time. Retaliation after is friend jailed for 5 years?

Journey to the End of the Night - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journey_to_the_End_of_the_Night)

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-216.html#post8379709

To my post:

One of the last ACARS Messages transmitted by AF447 concerned cabin pressure, IIRC external altitude becoming lower than cabin altitude.

It makes me sick thinking about it:

- Turn off ACARS
- Then depressurize
- Wait 12 minutes until cabin emergency O2 is used up
- Turn off transponder
- Zoom climb to what is possible, on topping out there will be less than 1g so it can be somewhat higher than what is in the spec
- now return, over land no cell phone calls will be made

To the psychological aspect:

- Maybe the initial plan was to hit the petronas towers.
- The above maneuvre is physicaly extremly challenging. Going "semi-ballistic" in a depressurized cabin on o2 only.
- After recovery you might see things differently and refrain from original plan=> erratic flightpath.

- You are now in a psychological challenging environment with harm done to every soul on board.
- There is no way to fix this situation, but you don't want to cause any more harm any longer.

- Program FMS to go above the Malaca Strait into the Indian Ocean an then set a last waypoint, the obvious one would be 90 degrees south.
- Now depressurize again, don't put your o2 mask and doze away.

The aircraft or what remains of it would be found south of where longitude ~95°E intersects with the southern branch of the "ping arc".

CodyBlade

16th Mar 2014, 07:17

Indian city a target?

https://twitter.com/strobetalbott/status/444890319323406337

Xeptu

16th Mar 2014, 07:17

I don't need to prove anything and there isn't enough factual data to prove anything at all in any case, including how long this aircraft stayed airborne, in which direction it went after last contact and how far into an event it was without the crew being aware, if at all.

Just because the acars and transponder went offline does not necessarily mean the crew must have known, although I'm tipping it wouldn't have been much later when all hell broke loose. I don't see any reason at all why this aircraft could not possibly be within observation range.

You can run with the turnaround theory and pinging satellites, but do we really know that, its equally plausible.

ana1936

16th Mar 2014, 07:28

Look again at my map from earlier. Considering the southern option.

http://www.csse.uwa.edu.au/~mark/personal/MH370/australia.png

Diego Garcia is the dark patch mid-ocean between Thailand and Madagascar.

If the plane reached the red circle (where ping was) by 8:11am (after being near Phuket at 2:15am) then it was within the blue circle by then (time and speed limit).

Thus it was not heading for Diego Garcia, or Africa.

After perhaps rounding Sumatra and turning South, it was headed for Antarctica, due South, or just perhaps French Antarctic Islands, Heard Island or maybe even Perth, or inland Australia.

It is a pity that the Australian radar (white circle) was probably off for the weekend.

Coagie

16th Mar 2014, 07:29

givemewings:
"Would you say that would be a 'usual' practice? In my experience I've had engineers 'ride along only twice in more than 6 years- once was an overwater sector and an insurer requirement to prevent unsched overnight in an unfavorable port... the other was an empty ferry sector."

I haven't seen it done in a US airline, but I've seen it elsewhere. For instance, I was on a 737 flight in Argentina, and there was the technician, in airline coveralls, in view of passengers, with a panel open and screwdriver out. The aircraft would make sudden maneuvers, each time he'd stick the screwdriver into the panel. Everyone would gasp. Of course, it was just coincidence. The sudden maneuvers were just the pilot thinking he was still in his Mirage fighter from his Falkland Island War days.

The Wawa Zone

16th Mar 2014, 07:34

Can any ATS people say when the SAR Phases were declared and by whom ?

CodyBlade

16th Mar 2014, 07:40

any press conf today or they do not work on Sundays?

Sunday is a normal work day for them.

weekend is Friday and Sat.

Communicator

16th Mar 2014, 07:41

Post #4280 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-214.html#post8379657) refers to Communicator's post #4062 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-204.html#post8378651), but quotes someone else's contribution. (See details below.)

In substance, everyone seems to be on the same page - JORN's public statements no doubt understate the system's actual capabilities. The Soviet term dezinformaciya seems a tad harsh to characterize strategic modesty by a trusted and trustworthy ally.

U.S. facilities on Diego Garcia, to say nothing of airborne and space based assets are probably much more powerful.

The gist of Communicator's earlier #4062 is that JORN in Australia publicly admits to 1,000 - 3,000 km for their OTHR system, implying that actual range may be rather wider.

===============

I'd raise an eyebrow at the 'dezinformaciya' repeated in Communicators' post #4062, thus:

"I can well understand the Australians being very cagy about releasing any data analysis which might give clues and cues regarding the extent and limits of their OTHR system, but I am wholly confident it now exceeds by some margin what is widely reported in the public domain.

...

firenine

16th Mar 2014, 07:41

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi1DljWCMAACBfH.png

Little Birdie

16th Mar 2014, 07:44

Saturday and Sunday is weekend in most parts incl capital. Some parts Friday and Saturday. Get your facts right.

Kentut

16th Mar 2014, 07:45

Sunday is a normal work day for them.

weekend is Friday and Sat.

This is not true. Sunday is an off day and part of the weekend, except for a few states ( only in the states of Johor, Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah ).

Subang / KLIA are in an unaffected state / Territory.

Workweek and weekend - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workweek_and_weekend#Muslim_countries)

LeadSled

16th Mar 2014, 07:58

Folks,
Based on answers to a "Question without Notice" in the Australian Commonwealth Parliament some time in 2013 ( as I recall) Jindalee does not work H24, so it would be very lucky if its restricted operations hours coincided with this occurrence.
Jindalee would certainly have been able to track the target well into the Indian Ocean, and well towards the surface, if it was in range.
Tootle pip!!

Metro man

16th Mar 2014, 08:03

The route taken by the B777 could have been carefully planned to avoid Singapore airspace. An unidentified aircraft would have been detected and intercepted very quickly, as someone trying to sneak through in a Cessna Caravan a few years ago discovered.

Communicator

16th Mar 2014, 08:13

1. Malaysian politics is turbulent and corrupt, but generally not violent.

2. The trustworthiness of Malaysia's current government is not beyond doubt in light of what has emerged in connection with MH370. (See, for example, this interesting discovery by D.S. (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-223.html#post8380085))

Given that the captain was reported to be a vocal supporter of Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, "official" statements concerning the (now absent) captain should be treated with great caution and checked closely for factual backup.

Anwar Ibrahim would decidedly not wish to be associated with any criminal actions by a prominent supporter.

3. There have been many comments about the high level of flying skills exhibited by the hijackers after MH370 lost contact with ATC.

However, going through the best scenarios available at present, hard flying skills involved are minimal. The aircraft went through a few turns and changes of altitude. Indeed, some comments here appear to indicate that the only "flying" that occurred may have been achieved through step-by-step programming of the FMS.

Where the hijackers have exhibited great sophistication is in their ability to evade ATC and various radar systems based on a shrewd understanding of the practical limitations of those systems, likely acquired through extensive observation. However, such knowledge and expertise is by no means confined to professional pilots.

P.S.: There may be only a single hijacker.

SQGRANGE

16th Mar 2014, 08:18

RE: The route taken by the B777 could have been carefully planned to avoid Singapore airspace.
Agreed, the SAF will scramble very quickly and are happy to show their strength. But the same goes for India, China and a few others. Also bear in mind Singapore and it's airspace is relatively small.
However I am hopeful the investigators are close to coming to a conclusion. I will hope for the best but fear a long salvage operation.

GlueBall

16th Mar 2014, 08:22

Blake777

16th Mar 2014, 08:26

The New Straits Times is reporting that the Malaysians have flown a 777 on a course to re-enact the likely scenario of MH370 turning west across the Malay peninsula and to see if the same primary radar and satellite data could be reproduced. They are satisfied this is the case.

firenine

16th Mar 2014, 08:33

any press conf today or they do not work on Sundays?
Next press conference seems to be scheduled to 17:30 MYT (9:30 GMT)

Twitter Source:

@ReutersAero
"Next press conference 1730 local #MH370"

Going Boeing

16th Mar 2014, 08:34

The gist of Communicator's earlier #4062 is that JORN in Australia publicly admits to 1,000 - 3,000 km for their OTHR system, implying that actual range may be rather wider.

In addition to security issues, the "cagyness" of the ADF about the range of the Jindalee system is due to the fact that the range varies depending on the atmospheric conditions which dictate the frequencies being used. Throughout the day/night, many different frequencies are used just like in normal HF communications - generally higher freqs in the middle of the day and low freqs in the middle of the night.

snowfalcon2

16th Mar 2014, 08:44

The transponder, and other electronics in the aircraft, must be equipped with on/off switches and or circuit-breakers. This is not just to satisfy certification requirements of the FAA, but in event of a short-circuit and/or fire from this device. It would be like replacing one of the circuit-breakers for your home with a fuse block and a penny jammed in the fuse block. If the item short-circuits and you don't remove power a fire is guaranteed.

There isn't going to be a technological fix that prevents a pilot from hijacking or crashing his own plane. Any proposed system will far more complicated, impossible to certify, and have so many failure modes it would take decades to test.

I'm sure this question will be addressed in the eventual accident report, so a few words from an engineer.

Let's recall that the B777 and its systems design was done in the early 1990s. Electronics and communications systems design has made immense progress since then.

While the above hijack or crash prevention system may be a difficult task, a far easier goal would be to improve the communication and reporting capabilities, as well as the "tamper-proofness" of the airplane so that it would be almost impossible to go invisible the way MH370 did.

For example, it is not that difficult to design a smart circuit breaker which before actually cutting the power instructs a communication device (e.g. ACARS) to send out an alert , for example "I was manually pulled" or "I need to break now due to overcurrent" or even "I'm sensing high overtemp".

Likewise, an "Equipment bay hatch being opened" alert would be a piece-of-cake to implement.

With some careful systems design, the act of "going invisible" would then not be possible without at least an alert message with some details getting out to the outside world. In the MH370 case, it might have been the difference between scrambling primary radar or military interceptors, and the agony the world has experienced last week. Perhaps even the knowledge that "you can't go hiding without announcing it" will discourage anyone from trying.

PS: It is a bit startling to realize that MH370, as it now seems, was just one circuit breaker pull away (Satcom) from full success in its go-hiding maneuver. As this reached the public domain yesterday, it becomes evident that something needs to be done to prevent further attempts.

the incivil beast

16th Mar 2014, 08:44

Why is the Captain the only pilot under suspicion? Why has the F/Os home, hard drive etc not been searched? They have : see 2-b in the last Malaysian government PR (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-223.html#post8380142)

Passagiata

16th Mar 2014, 08:47

Kiwiconhead:
Staging out of Cocos Islands should give them good endurance?

http://goo.gl/maps/4cDSX

Um this is a territory of Australia. Populated with Australians.

Hempy

16th Mar 2014, 08:48

knackeredII

16th Mar 2014, 08:48

Why has the F/Os home, hard drive etc not been searched? Why is he not stated to be under suspicion?

I believe it has been. From CBC: 'Police on Saturday went to the Kuala Lumpur homes of both the pilot and co-pilot of the missing plane, according to a guard and several local reporters. Authorities have said they will investigate the pilots as part of their probe, but have released no information about how they are progressing.'

StormyKnight

16th Mar 2014, 08:54

Kiwiconhead:
Um this is a territory of Australia. Populated with Australians.

Just the thing for Australian P3's performing a SAR in the southern arc :rolleyes:

overthewing

16th Mar 2014, 08:55

@D.S.

So that means
A) Vietnam has the plane on radar turning around, and tried to tell Malaysia that day
B) Malaysia knew they had it on their radar at 2:40 in the Straights anyway

From what I remember reading, Vietnam ATC informed Malaysian ATC about the missing a/c at 02.40L (Malaysian time). This is pretty much exactly the time when the mystery a/c disappeared from the military radar to the west of Malaysia. I imagine the news sent the Malaysians scurrying to replay their recordings of what radar operators had failed to see? So there were two instances of '02.40', which may have confused a few people.

InfrequentFlier511

16th Mar 2014, 08:55

A further limitation of JORN, according to ADF publications, it doesn't scan like a conventional radar, but rather it is tasked to scan a particular 'tile' and either airborne or surface targets. I don't know how quickly it can be retasked, but it seems very unlikely that it would have accidentally painted MH370. If it deliberately painted that part of the sky then that's a whole other story.

Communicator

16th Mar 2014, 08:58

This was probably mentioned here earlier, but MAS was actually fined by usually mild New Zealand.

According to the report below, MAS deliberately violated an order not to allow a named passenger to leave the country. The passenger's passport details were falsified to circumvent automatic checks.

Malaysia Airlines has previous conviction for 'falsifying passport details to allow passenger on board' | South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1445128/malaysia-airlines-has-previous-conviction-falsifying-passport-details)

sky9

16th Mar 2014, 09:00

awblain

16th Mar 2014, 09:01

Snowfalcon,

But every crew is only ever 90 seconds from voluntarily spearing into the ground/sea, as Egyptair showed.

Circuit breaker design isn't going to stop a deranged crew, or fraction thereof, of going postal.

Legacy aircraft can't have their power systems and the location of their avionics bays redesigned as a result of a one-off freak event. If you want a permanent locator, then fit an independent transponder.

I wonder if any knee-jerking legislators might consider having arbitrary numbers of security persons with much less education, training and judgement than the crew themselves installed in the jump seats to watch the crew and each other?

Pontius Navigator

16th Mar 2014, 09:03

Since the pilots have now reluctantly been included as hijacking suspects, forensic computer investigators who are extracting data from the captain's flight simulator hard drive may find clues as to MH370's bizarre routing. :suspect:

My thoughts exactly. What airfields has he practised landing at?

Question:

How long is passenger oxygen supposed to last? Obviously with fewer passengers it would last longer. With high anxiety it would last less.

How long will cockpit oxygen last supposing it is a different supply?

PS:

Remember the film Thunderball. Has the pilot got that at home too?

StormyKnight

16th Mar 2014, 09:06

Todays Press Conference will be in about 30 minutes at 17:30 MYT (+8GMT)

It should be able to be seen on this video stream like previous press conferences.

Live TV | Astro Awani (http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live)

rh200

16th Mar 2014, 09:15

Just the thing for Australian P3's performing a SAR in the southern arc

Indeed, or for that case any other country's assets that may be able to help. I wouldn't think anybody would object, the hard bit would be keeping up with the consumables.

snowfalcon2

16th Mar 2014, 09:22

awblain,

Circuit breaker design isn't going to stop a deranged crew, or fraction thereof, of going postal.

No, of course, but they may think twice if they know they can be traced.

My post was actually partly inspired by a BEA study post-AF447 investigation, referred to somewhere in the early part of this thread. It had a slightly different theme - the scope was to detect when the airplane is doing unusual maneuvers (as AF447 did) and then communicate relevant alert messages over ACARS satcom.

So the main intention was the same - to ASAP inform the outside world that something unusual was happening to the plane, with some details (such as position)

I don't know what has been the result of the BEA study, which recommended implementation in aircraft getting certified in 2018 and in legacy aircraft by 2020 IIRC. I thought it notable in this context anyway.

Linking to the legacy equipment hardware is of course slightly more difficult than linking to the flight instruments (which presumably are already connected to ACARS in most a/c types) as in the BEA study. But there may be some easy wins, especially for future airplane designs.

fox niner

16th Mar 2014, 09:22

If it was a hijacking, they end up on the northern arc.

If it was suicide, they end up on the southern arc.

joy ride

16th Mar 2014, 09:26

At this stage of the investigation there is precious little real news and probably will not be until physical evidence is found, then it is a question of whether it is a criminal act (including suicide) or an accident.

Either way, I think one result of this might be that the "Loneliness of Command" might get a bit deeper: extra toilet and E&E both accessible only from Flight Deck, plus refreshments for flight crew passed in through double hatches.

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 09:27

Erwin Schroedinger (http://www.pprune.org/members/100401-erwin-schroedinger) said

The last time I counted, there were two pilots in an airliner cockpit. Why is the Captain the only pilot under suspicion? Why has the F/Os home, hard drive etc not been searched? Why is he not stated to be under suspicion? Why is he not 'a pilot'?

The answer to that, sadly, might be this

The son of a high-ranking official in the public works department of a Malaysian state, Fariq joined Malaysia Airlines when he was 20.

Now I will say, reports are his home was also searched. (as seems to have been addressed by others)

But that quote might possibly give some indication as to why more official attention seems to be paid to Zaharie Ahmad Shah rather than Fariq Ab Hamid. It might also be why the prior against-policy actions of Fariq seemed to have flown so far under the radar as to not only apparently result in a lack of discipline, but even seemingly proved no resistance in his resent promotion to the cockpit of a 777.

(this works off my belief that the incident with the ladies/smoking can not be a one-time thing, and that the airline had to have been aware at some point. I could be wrong, of course, but...)

That said, if I had to pick one of the two as being involved, I would go with Zaharie. Mainly because of that initial sharp Ascent/Descent and the skill it likely would have taken to pull it off seemingly rather smoothly (even if was not as extreme as reported, it was still drastic.) Was Fairq experienced enough to do that? Then add in all the radar avoidance tricks and all... And on second thought, stuff such as that could be playing a huge role in their seemingly leaning towards Zaharie as well.

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 09:28

@ overthewing (http://www.pprune.org/members/214127-overthewing)

Interesting. Do you happen to know where you might have read that?

Unixman

16th Mar 2014, 09:37

Whittle

I prefer Sherlock Holmes's version: "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

dicks-airbus

16th Mar 2014, 09:41

Why bother going to FL450 and then back to FL295 and making a lot of unexplainable turns?

Too many whys

harrogate

16th Mar 2014, 09:42

Nothing new from the press conference, other than confirmation they've formally contacted and briefed representatives from governments in the expanded search zone. They're currently taking questions from Malaysian journalists. Other journos to follow.

CodyBlade

16th Mar 2014, 09:49

There is nothing elaborate or complicated about the home Sim.

1. Just split the visual display in 3 individual screens.
2. MCP,FMC,EFIS,Overhead 2D panels on separate screens.
3.Simple consumer yoke.

blind pew

16th Mar 2014, 09:50

Fuel - press conference
Whilst not speaking Malay? the second answer to the local journalist's question included the words along the lines of "normal to fill it up" which suggested to me something along the lines of "Eco tankage" and that the aircraft had full tanks.
Did anyone understand the question and answer?

Tom Bangla

16th Mar 2014, 09:51

Aircraft took on only planned fuel. No additional fuel.
- Minister.

D.S.

16th Mar 2014, 09:52

GobonaStick (http://www.pprune.org/members/224935-gobonastick),

Why bother turning northwest, towards the Andamans, if you're only planning to head south and put it in the drink?

Avoided radar. If you are committing suicide but want an insurance payout for your family, you need to obscure your suicide.

Making everything look like a hijacking and ditching the plane in about as difficult of waters to search as you can find seems like a pretty brilliant plan to accomplish just that, imo.

I'll really be impressed if we eventually learn the tail was drug somewhere along the trail to drop the black box away from the wreckage. (unbelievably unlikely, I know - but hey, look where we already are!)

cura

16th Mar 2014, 09:53

@ snowfalcon2

I think you are referring to the

Oceanic Position Tracking Improvement & Monitoring (OPTIMI) project

Check the sesarju website for info......

James7

16th Mar 2014, 09:55

I believe the aircraft 'landed' in the ocean and is now resting on the sea floor.

Most likely it is still in tact if the landing (suicide) was smooth enough.

If it is really deep then no debris (from hull collapsing under pressure) will surface, maybe in a few weeks it may due to ocean currents but then several hundred miles from its resting point.

Time to drop some sonars.

If this is the case then the aircraft could never be found. Think of the hundreds of ships lying at the bottom of the ocean containing vast treasures and not found.

Unless there is debris found within the next week then most certainly this is where the aircraft is.

Terrorist activity is unlikely as someone could have got a transmission out.

Even using the portable ELTs

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 09:57

Why bother turning northwest, towards the Andamans, if you're only planning to head south and put it in the drink? :suspect:

He was following waypoints.
Next question is what did he do after he was out of Primary Radar range.

Above The Clouds

16th Mar 2014, 09:58

Acting Transportation Minister, "this will possibly change the history of aviation".

Chief of Police, "all pax have been checked by various agencies from around the world and cleared"

I for one am very glad not to be crew in an airline operation or a wanna be looking for an airline job in the future :eek:

Lynx8

16th Mar 2014, 09:59

uhhhmm..here we have many things similar to what happened on 9/11.
Aircraft diverting and no too much ATC enquiry about it.
The military "got distracted" at the beginning.
Many different scenarios proposed and then a direct accusation, in this case to the pilots, that will make all the parties happy isn't it?

So the Malaysian government is saying that the only way to detect an "intruder" is having the transponder ON?
If the intruder has it OFF the military will not intervene cause the spot is too tiny and almost invisible to the radars?
What sort of radar they got not detecting a 70 x 70 meter airplane without transponder?
No datalink from the 777 to the MAS HQ after the initial turn back?

The Vietnamese promptly reported to the Malaysian that the aircraft turned back and the Malaysian did not reply at all. It was silence, silence, silence.
It seems to me a very bad managed inside job.
May be those 2 pilots and the crew were really able to "stop the plan".
Otherwise why the Malaysian Government let 8 country search the aircraft where the Malaysian knew very well it was not even close to that area?

A similar accident happened in Italy in 1980 where in the following 10 years 40+ military people died in very strange circumstances. Al those people were witnesses of the ditching of the Itavia DC9 in the Mediterranean sea.

Hope no strange accidents will happen in the future the those military that for sure have witnessed many things and are now under an enormous amount of pressure from their Government and not only.

Golf-Mike-Mike

16th Mar 2014, 09:59

How can they be sure that communications weredeliberatelydisabled?
It could be that a chain of events cut the ACARS, transponder and VHF and that chain caused them to turn back but the crew were themselves overcome by the events.

Exactly my post at 23:50 UTC last night that was deleted, so sadly yours and mine may now also be deleted. Just before the mods do that could someone with the 777 / electronics expertise please categorically confirm that the ACARS system and later the transponder / ADS-B systems can ONLY go offline by the "deliberate act of someone on board". The Malaysian authorities are so definite on this point they are categorically ruling out equipment failure / fire / etc.

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 10:02

Chief of Police, "all pax have been checked by various agencies from around the world and cleared"

Was there 2 or 4 PAX travelling on someone else's passports?
That is still a question MAS need to answer.

Along with their prior history of allowing people with dodgy passports onboard
Malaysia Airlines has previous conviction for 'falsifying passport details to allow passenger on board' | South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1445128/malaysia-airlines-has-previous-conviction-falsifying-passport-details)

henra

16th Mar 2014, 10:02

Terrorists love publicity and this is giving to them in bucket loads even if the actual people haven't announced themselves.

That thinking has been repeated here again aind again but after a biref reality check it doesn't hold water.
which terrorists got which publicity that would support their cause?

Icarus2001

16th Mar 2014, 10:03

I'll really be impressed if we eventually learn the tail was drug somewhere along the trail to drop the black box away from the wreckage. (unbelievably unlikely, I know - but hey, look where we already are!)

Can you say that again in English?

Impressed, 239 dead and you are impressed at their cunning. Okay, up to you.

Iron Duck

16th Mar 2014, 10:05

SLF here. Perhaps it didn't go 'according to plan' and the bizarre disappearance we now have was unintended.

Most deliberate actions are a consequence of trying to attain a premeditated goal. If that includes long-planned suicide (or the remainder of one's life as an international criminal) by persons intelligent and informed enough to carry out this act, I fail to believe that they would throw away their lives lightly. I think they thought they had a decent chance of success, and as Occam's Razor tells us, the simplest plans with the least dependencies are the most likely to work.

It might be helpful to try to figure out what was intended, in the most basic way:

* An influential public statement, like 9/11?
Once its perpetrators had decided to act unconstrained by behavioural norms the 9/11 plan itself was quite simple and straightforward, with few dependencies. Even so, it only partly succeeded. As a public statement, so far MH370 seems to have a pretty obscure purpose, whereas 9/11 was clear and comprehensible.

* A disappearance intended to precipitate an insurance payout?
MH370 seems so far to be an unnecessarily complicated way of going about it. There have been plenty of prior instances and I'd expect an intelligent perpetrator to try to avoid their complexities, weaknesses and failures.

* An attempted theft of the airframe, its cargo, or passengers?
Sure, but once you have them, what are you going to do with them? Again, if the overall plan is complex with many dependencies its chances of success are low. As has been pointed out before it's probably easier to seize the cargo before flight. It's probably easier to kidnap individual passengers before flight. And what are they going to do with this particular airframe which couldn't be done with another? I'd have thought it would be far easier to seize a freighter or bizjet on the day if the goal was to drop a dirty bomb on a city or disrupt The Hague talks.

brika

16th Mar 2014, 10:07

Malaysian investigators have categorically denied speculation that the pilot and/or FO asked to fly together.

-investigation has entered a new phase with involvement of more countries along the North Corridor (11 countries making a total of 25 countries involved in SAR). Malaysian PM has spoken to the PMs/Presidents of some countries along the Northern Corridor. Focus has shifted away from South China Sea.

-Police are using Acts covering sabotage, hijacking etc in their investigations including cargo manifest, personal problems including all ground crew, pilot's flight sim, pax background checks (some international police agencies have cleared all pax- no negative records on them). Section 130 (c) applied and data release classified.

-satellite and radar info has been requested from all countries concerned in possible flight path and those who have global coverage over suspected areas.

-Immediate financial assistance (not compensation) being given to families of pax

-Plane took off with plenty of fuel for original flight plus some extra for contingencies. There was no extra fuel (otherwise).

-Flight simulator has been taken by Police and is being examined by experts

-Primary military data (revealed to investigative partners when normally not done), with satellite data is the reason for shift of focus

-no hazardous substance in cargo manifest.

-new information received yesterday being investigated - will be verified and corroborated before being released

-cannot divulge military radar data from other sources

-minimum speed and max speed a/c can fly has been taken into account in determining the possible flight path corridors

(Factual summary of the full live press conference this morning from KL)

Crowline

16th Mar 2014, 10:07

Why are so many on this thread speculating about the cause of this incident rather than the outcome? If it were a hijacking, what will be done about it if there were a rogue airplane waiting somewhere to be used for an attack?

Will air-corridors be monitored more thoroughly in future, will there be finally telemetry in real time mandatory for airlines rather than old fashioned black boxes, considering all the money spent on retrieving black boxes from the ocean over the last decades?

So what will be the implications for the airline industry?

SQGRANGE

16th Mar 2014, 10:09

I'm thinking about the final non standard radio transmission. As this happened after the ACARS was turned off I presume that someone has done an analysis of the transmission to see if it is either of the pilots voices. The opinion of some of the comments on this site is that it is an Americanism, is it a normal term of speech for Malay pilots?

An analysis of the voice would have been one of the first things done. Being based in this region many local flight crew and even cabin crew have "Americanism" or Western slang terms. This is a result of being around many expats and some are educated in the American and British Schools in these countries.

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 10:10

(Factual summary of the full live press conference this morning from KL)

Nice to see them answering valid questions that they have been avoiding for a week now!

Lynx8

16th Mar 2014, 10:10

Quote:
Originally Posted by X-37
How can they be sure that communications weredeliberatelydisabled?
It could be that a chain of events cut the ACARS, transponder and VHF and that chain caused them to turn back but the crew were themselves overcome by the events.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Golf-Mike-Mike
Exactly my post at 23:50 UTC last night that was deleted, so sadly yours and mine may now also be deleted. Just before the mods do that could someone with the 777 / electronics expertise please categorically confirm that the ACARS system and later the transponder / ADS-B systems can ONLY go offline by the "deliberate act of someone on board". The Malaysian authorities are so definite on this point they are categorically ruling out equipment failure / fire / etc.
========================
Yes guys, a spill of substantial water over the Aisle Stand, in the middle of the 2 pilots, would have generated many short circuits including the TCAS and all the radios and further leaking into the E&E bay would have done the rest. Including switching off all the 6 CRTs that helps the pilots for navigation.
it was night + smokes and fumes in the cockpit + no navigation display.
This scenario may be has more credit than a UFO or an asteroid impact....

Anna's Dad

16th Mar 2014, 10:10

From Press Conference: the cargo did not contain 'any hazardous materials'.

snowfalcon2

16th Mar 2014, 10:11

I think you are referring to the Oceanic Position Tracking Improvement & Monitoring (OPTIMI) project

Check the sesarju website for info......

Thanks for that, but it was actually the "Triggered Transmission of Flight Data (http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flight.af.447/triggered.transmission.of.flight.data.pdf)" working group report that I noticed.

The report in fact makes references to the OPTIMI project, but I have not looked further into the links.

James7

16th Mar 2014, 10:14

awblain....I wonder if any knee-jerking legislators might consider having arbitrary numbers of security persons with much less education, training and judgement than the crew themselves installed in the jump seats to watch the crew and each other?

Whom themselves may consider a take over. aka the FedEx Engineer.

X-37

16th Mar 2014, 10:18

Golf-Mike-Mike
Yes my second attempt too. Can't see how to quote.
Not electronics expert but I did fly the 777 for seven years. Maybe something as simple as dropping coffee over the centre consol caused system failure and worse. Will we ever know the truth?

multycpl

16th Mar 2014, 10:19

Never a truer word said by a journo....."they don't really have a clue, do they ? " BBC NEWS

James7

16th Mar 2014, 10:19

me myself and fly...
John Sparks ‏@c4sparks
I asked the Malay Min of Transport if #MH370 data comms system Was disabled before pilot said 'good night' to Malay ATC - he said yes ...

That would be the perfect time to do it as Malay ATC would think nothing of it as voice comms has been established after the failure.

There is nothing unusual in DATA transmission going off line, happens all the time, usually it comes back on its own or after a few resets.

Pontius Navigator

16th Mar 2014, 10:21

Why bother going to FL450 and then back to FL295 and making a lot of unexplainable turns?

Too many whys

The lobe patterns for some primary radars may limit their high altitude coverage.

The routing may have been designed to skirt the presumed edge of some search radars.

The reduction of height to 295 may also have been planned to get below long range cover of the ground radars.

All you would need to plan a dark route is knowledge of the capabilities of the different radar systems and knowledge of their location.

Routing along an FIR boundary could be used to engender 'ownership' confusion between Indonesia and Malaysia etc.

All pretty easy stuff for a technically savvy person.

X-37

16th Mar 2014, 10:21

D.S
I can't see how you would know that the ACARS or Transponder had failed.
Retired from the 777 for ten years now so memory not so good.

julianz

16th Mar 2014, 10:21

This changes a lot of the scenarios people seem to be dwelling on:

Malaysia Airline MH370: 9/11-style terror allegations resurface in case of lost plane - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10700652/Malaysia-Airline-MH370-911-style-terror-allegations-resurface-in-case-of-lost-plane.html)

Would be consistent with the fact that both pilots seem to be very unlikely terrorist candidates:

MH370: profile of missing Malaysian Airline plane's pilots starts to emerge - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10700273/MH370-profile-of-missing-Malaysian-Airline-planes-pilots-starts-to-emerge.html)

4468

16th Mar 2014, 10:23

Two things spring to mind.

ACARS had been disabled BEFORE the final voice transmission. So it seems to me that identification of the voice making the final transmission will greatly assist in steering the investigation towards the person(s) responsible. The hijacking had already commenced.

Secondly reports have suggested the aircraft was climbed to FL450. I can only think of one reason to do this. That would be to increase the cabin altitude. The implications of that should not be lost on anyone.

I can't see how you would know that the ACARS or Transponder had failed.
Retired from the 777 for ten years now so memory not so good.

I haven't flown the triple for a few years either, but I vaguely recall there's an Eicas alert for ACARS? Transponder too I believe?

Space Jet

16th Mar 2014, 10:24

If this has been posted feel free to delete, a terror group said the other week there was a plan to hijack an aircraft.

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 expands after plane diverted by ?deliberate action?, amid hijack fears | News.com.au (http://mobile.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-diverted-by-deliberate-action-pilots-under-scrutiny-amid-hijack-fears/story-fnizu68q-1226856077160)

Pontius Navigator

16th Mar 2014, 10:25

News conference question re fuel.

Standard load onboard. No unusual xtra added

Or does it mean fuelled to full rather than fuelled to sector requirement which would be more economical?

Whittle

16th Mar 2014, 10:26

'I'd have thought it would be far easier to seize a freighter or bizjet on the day if the goal was to drop a dirty bomb on a city or disrupt The Hague talks'

Iron Duck - yes, but what the business jet would not have is 155 Chinese hostages onboard. This is really worrying because if this 777 makes an intrusion into the airspace of a country and is recognised as a threat, the C-I-C of that country then has an even more difficult decision. That decision needs to be considered ahead of time with a decision tree in place, before any potential incident, because there sure as heck wouldn't be much time for consultations, committees, referendums, debates and the like.

firenine

16th Mar 2014, 10:31

To recap the main points from that press conference:

25 countries are now involved in the search effort, which is now focused on large tracts of land covering 11 countries, and deep stretches of sea.

It was confirmed police have searched the homes of the pilot and co-pilot - removing a flight simulator from the pilot's house - but the two men did not ask to fly together on flight MH370.

The plane did not take off with any additional fuel on board, other than what would be needed for a normal flight.

It is possible that the last satellite signal received from the plane was sent when the plane was on the ground.

Authorities do not believe there was any hazardous cargo on board.

The plane's ACARS transmission system was switched off before the plane's last communication with ground control.

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane live: Homes of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid searched as investigators say flight MH370 was 'deliberately diverted' - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-live-3245935)

TheShadow

16th Mar 2014, 10:34

dicksairbus asks:
Why bother going to FL450 and then back to FL295 and making a lot of unexplainable turns?

Too many whys
Think in terms of two pilots locked in their cockpit - with only a marginally visible horizon, no altimetry, no heading info, no cockpit lights, no navigability. They tried to turn back once things started to go sour - but once your systems are taken out, you need some sort of roll-out heading advisory. At that westerly turning juncture, having decided to turn back, it all became a world of hurt. No flight instruments make Jack a dull boy. That was probably as good as it would ever get for that hapless crew.

How could that happen? A nasty gremlin in the E&E (aka avionics) bay perhaps?

Captain Charisma

16th Mar 2014, 10:36

No ATC audio alarms if a transponder return goes off (disappears from the scope).
The equipment wouldn't know if was an aircraft transponder failure or a ground receiver/processor issue. Transponder returns are sometimes lost for short periods of time, more so in a single radar head environment than in a multi head situation.

The Bullwinkle

16th Mar 2014, 10:36

Now that attention is focusing on the pilot & his politics it is noteworthy that on his Twitter account 13 of the 14 people/organisations he follows are related to opposition politics.

Seriously, if preferring the opposition over the government makes you a "Political Fanatic", then 99% of Australian Pilots were virtually terrorists prior to the last Federal election!

Unbelievable! :mad:

uncle_maxwell

16th Mar 2014, 10:39

It may have been answered before, but can satellite pictures usually show aircraft in (cruise) flight? Just wondering if they are recognisable as aircraft or even aircraft types.

Seems like many a satellite from various governmental and commercial operations routinely take pictures of Mother Earth, some of them quite frequently. Lots of data to get and go through, but it might provide a few more locations at different points in time during the later stages of the flight.

Hornbill88

16th Mar 2014, 10:41

This is an enthralling string of posts and thanks to everyone - pilots and other experts such as security folk, satellite engineers, etc - for their insightful comments. (Well, nearly everyone - no thanks to the fruitcakes - but hey it is full moon today). Fascination is tempered only by the horror of what the passengers and crew must have been through, and what their families are going through now.

I find the apparent zig zags after the Pulau Perak radar sighting (at VAMPI, GIVAL and IGREX) particularly perplexing. At #4347 Porterhouse wrote "There are VERIFIED heading changes, at least 4." I think this might have come from a Reuters article but don't recall reading it. Can someone please remind me who verified this?

4468

16th Mar 2014, 10:43

Very difficult to keep up with all the posts in this fast moving thread, however Andu has said something with which I can concur.
it's as big a paradigm shift as Sept 11th 2001 was.
Maybe not quite as large a shift, but were there to be a second 'hijack' like this, the industry could descend into meltdown once again!

Kneejerk reactions by law makers to this incident are pretty much a given.:rolleyes:

Above The Clouds

16th Mar 2014, 10:43

@ Uncle Maxwell

They could reposition satellites and of course the use of long range drones to search areas for wreckage.

AEROMEDIC

16th Mar 2014, 10:45

Maybe something as simple as dropping coffee over the centre consol caused system failure and worse. Will we ever know the truth?

This is why drip shields are fitted over electronic compartment areas to protect things that are vital to the operation of the aircraft.

Andu

16th Mar 2014, 10:45

Seriously, if preferring the opposition over the government makes you a "Political Fanatic", then 99% of Australian Pilots were virtually terrorists prior to the last Federal election!

My thoughts exactly, Bullwinkle.

That thinking has been repeated here again aind again but after a biref reality check it doesn't hold water.
which terrorists got which publicity that would support their cause?Henrea, a long way back in this thread, I made the point (quite possibly deleted by the mods) that the terrorists' aim is to make the war they are waging against the West so expensive for the West to wage that it becomes unsustainable - much the same as Ronald Reagan did to win the Cold War against the Soviets.

If this does prove to be a terrorist attack, so long as the airframe remains not found, who ever did it doesn't need to announce they did it. They're winning, for they're causing their enemies - that's us - to be spending huge amounts of money trying (stress trying) to counter them.

And guess who'll end up paying for all those enormous costs in searching for this aircraft? You and me, the travelling public. And not just in money, but in added frustration and delay as we endure yet heavier and more intrusive security procedures.

I think the line being taken that it was pilot suicide is self-serving bullsh1t by the authorities. It's so obviously an easy 'out' for the airlines/governments - blame the pilot rather than face the fact that if this is a terrorist attack, it's as big a paradigm shift as Sept 11th 2001 was. It's also stupid - for passengers are going to be suspicious of their pilots, (if they're not already), to the point where we're going to have an incident where some crazy passenger intervenes and interferes, stopping pilots from doing what the passenger believes is dangerous or unusual.

I've had to 'walk the walk' to the crew rest area any number of times (in my airline, on the 777 - crazy as it will seem to many reading this - that involves walking all the way to the very rear of the economy cabin).

I can see some poor sod in the future having to get back to the cockpit in a hurry because of some technical problem and being tackled by some vigilante passenger in mid cabin "because he is obviously up to no good".

fortuneferal

16th Mar 2014, 10:48

Captain Shah has been with the airline since 1981 and flown 18,365 hours. Allowing for 4 weeks leave a year, he has flown only 12 hours per week! No wonder he has a sim at home...

Jumpjim

16th Mar 2014, 10:48

As a 772 driver I still find it unbelievable that we have the ability to turn off the transponder in flight. I was firmly of the opinion that this option would be removed post 9/11 after it became apparent how difficult it is for ATC to track aircraft without a working transponder.

I can think of no reason you would EVER want to turn off the transponder once in flight, and I think that we will find this option is rapidly removed from the flight deck..

CodyBlade

16th Mar 2014, 10:51

So many agencies involved now,I get the feeling they have rough idea where the T7 is.

But if you trying to catch a car thief you won't broadcast to world you know where they are and coming for them.

Hence the Southern corridor.

Sober Lark

16th Mar 2014, 10:51

At this stage forensic psychology, forensic examination and computer evidence recovery with careful evaluation of shadow data on hard drive will either help locate the aircraft of clear the pilots of any wrongdoing.

Golf-Mike-Mike

16th Mar 2014, 10:51

... can satellite pictures usually show aircraft in (cruise) flight? Just wondering if they are recognisable as aircraft or even aircraft types.

And the answer is Yes. The early satellite photos from Google of SE UK had shadowy images of 747s on final approach to Heathrow but of course the right satellites / cameras have to be pointing at the right place at the right moment in time.

rog747

16th Mar 2014, 10:51

Finding this aircraft is going to be a monumental task, possibly historically the hardest ever -
i reckon as per AF447 and the SAA 747 Helderberg crashes in the sea they will never stop looking though -

this incident will no doubt change how we travel once again

seems like any extra fuel uploaded at KUL is not now being mooted at Sundays Press conference -
the 2 pilots did not ask to fly together - someone mentioned the ACARS was switched off BEFORE the last slightly odd radio R/T -
if so wow that's a revelation

plus it seems many Western and other countries are VERY jittery this 777 is on the ground somewhere - they keep harping on about it -
The Malaysians and the Yanks know much more than they are giving off and they are pooping their pants?

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 10:53

As a 772 driver I still find it unbelievable that we have the ability to turn off the transponder in flight. I was firmly of the opinion that this option would be removed post 9/11 after it became apparent how difficult it is for ATC to track aircraft without a working transponder.

have you already forgotten about the B787 ELT fire?

SaturnV

16th Mar 2014, 10:54

Hornbill88, it was a Reuters article.

I assumed that the last radar contact at Pulau Perak island (near VAMPI) included a heading to the next waypoint to the north. Whether there was a ping that suggests the plane was headed into the Andaman Sea has not been released publicly, but I suspect there is a ping indicating a N or NW track after VAMPI.

aerobat77

16th Mar 2014, 10:54

i must say i finally do not believe all the fancy rumours.

i think they had somekind of an initially undetected smoldering fire in the electronic bay which disabled one system after another - starting with acars. after system failures began they decided to turn back to malaysia , using the heading mode .

just in the turn the fire melted through the structure resulting in a rapid decompression. the crew oxygen bottles, stored in the electronic bay, failed and the pilots were out of order. the decompression by itself also put off this fire.

the autopilot continued to work and stucked in the turn on a heading towards indian ocean where the plane continued until fuel exhaustion and then crashed.

any news on altitude changes etc are just false rumour from the malysian side.

it maybe that "simple".

PieChaser

16th Mar 2014, 10:55

Just a thought.
I spent several years building my own aircraft, and although I am pretty competent with electronics, I am by no means an expert.
However I bought an off the shelf mode S transponder, set the hex code myself, installed it then test flew the aircraft. All done with no airframe or avionics experience, as is the case with a lot of home builders out there.
If you were able to smuggle a mode S transponder aboard that T7 I suspect it would be relatively easy for an electronically savvy guy to hook it up and set what ever hex code he desired thereby cloning another aircraft.
I am sure a licensed avionics engineer will shoot me down if I am way off the mark here.
But it may just explain why this guy appears to have been able to fly his aircraft wherever he wanted.

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 10:56

SBut if you trying to catch a car thief you won't broadcast to world you know where they are and coming for them..

Even though its 8 days down the track, the priority has to be finding the aircraft and the PAX. If the perpetrators get away, that's a secondary issue, and they will have identified themselves by their absence.

richardgb

16th Mar 2014, 10:58

The Malaysian PM is quoted as saying "have determined the plane's last communication with a satellite was in one of two possible corridors":

a northern corridor stretching from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through to northern Thailand
a southern corridor stretching from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean

I understand that these references to corridors is based on a (presumably geo-stationary) satellite above the Indian ocean detecting signals from the a/c.

But if that's the case why refer to a 'corridor' implying a long, but limited width area?

If the satellite can't detect position/bearing or distance, which presumably it can't (otherwise there'd be no need to mention N/S corridors), then presumably the search area would be anywhere in the line of sight, limited only by the range of the a/c.

Or am I missing something?

oviano

16th Mar 2014, 10:59

@aerobat77

Is that scenario not contradicted by ACARS having been disabled prior to the last words spoken to ATC?

Mr.Buzzy

16th Mar 2014, 11:00

Aerobat77. Sensible words.:ok::ok::ok:

35hPA28

16th Mar 2014, 11:04

The Malaysian govt, knowing that the plane had turned west and crossed over to the Strait of Malacca, still let at least 4 countries waste valuable resources searching for an airliner they would never find. :=
Then, upon detecting said airliner on radar, instead of following it or asking for help right then, did nothing and now ask the whole world to help them find an airplane in an area that is basically a rectangle between Beijing, Teheran, Tananarive and Perth!:eek:
I know nothing about that country but if the Captain has proved to be an opponent of such state of affairs, that only speaks well of his character.

Btw, does anyone have software or knows his spherical geometry enough to calculate what percentage of the planet surface that area represents?

SaturnV

16th Mar 2014, 11:05

richardgb,

go to the graphic in this NY Times article,

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/world/asia/series-of-errors-by-malaysia-mounts-complicating-the-task-of-finding-flight-370.html?hp

the width at any point in the corridor arc is pretty wide.

clayne

16th Mar 2014, 11:06

If the satellite can't detect position/bearing or distance, which presumably it can't (otherwise there'd be no need to mention N/S corridors), then presumably the search area would be anywhere in the line of sight, limited only by the range of the a/c.

Or am I missing something?

Relative signal strength (or possibly even something like latency) to multiple satellites.

ana1936

16th Mar 2014, 11:10

Richardgb

We can work out distance from the satellite using the ping. Gives us a circle.

There are some other satellites around ruling out sections of the circle. Thus we end up with two arcs.

See

MH370 (http://www.csse.uwa.edu.au/~mark/personal/MH370/mh370.html)

EDLB

16th Mar 2014, 11:11

Inmarsat downlink and uplink is probably the most surveiled band of every spy agency and .gov satelite operator in the world. Hard to believe that they can not determine if the last ping came from the northern or southern range of the 40 degrees arc. Somehow it looks as there is a vested interest from some parties that the plane is not found quick.

VinRouge

16th Mar 2014, 11:11

Doppler from multiple geostationary sats would give you derived heading, speed and possibly location. It's how the Americans tracked Sputnik.

DType

16th Mar 2014, 11:13

By following waypoints it could make it look like a valid commercial flight, but with a failed transponder, so minimising chances of a hostile interception???

OK, I know I don't know what I am talking about.

slats11

16th Mar 2014, 11:14

Why follow waypoints if your only gonna spear it in

We seem to have two possible scenarios.
1. Go South - and presumably crash into deep south Indian Ocean where it may never be found.
2. Go North. Could crash, but more lily to be found. Could possibly also land plane for a future purpose, but only if there was a skilled pilot involved.

If it was the Captain, you would have to figure he realised he would be tracked. Perhaps not in real time in the middle of the night. But it would become clear over subsequent days.

So if the plan was to land (i.e. north), why go to the trouble to make clear that he was likely flying? Why specifically draw increased attention to the possibility the plane may have landed, and that getting the plane was the purpose? If the ultimate plan was to get the plane (or the passengers), why deliberately tip off the authorities that this was a possibility? Whoever ultimately wanted the plane would presumably prefer to draw attention away from the landing scenario.

Going South makes more sense to me. If you wanted to strike a blow against your country, having an internal person responsible is probably more devastating than being the innocent victim of terrorists who may come from elsewhere. How do MAS respond to this? If a senior trusted Captain did this, that is a major problem for them. I was talking to a friend in KL tonight. MAS bookings are down and people are cancelling flights.

I feel the plan was to go south. It is a huge ocean down there. It is very deep in parts. Rough seas and remoteness from land will make search very difficult. If you really wanted to hide the plane, that is as good a place as any.

Make it unlikely the plane will be found - not quickly anyway. At the same time, make people feel it was most likely an internal job. This leaves lots of deeply disturbing and unanswered questions. No assurances this couldn't happen again - how do you protect against this?

I believe that would be the most psychologically devastating option. And that is why I believe this is what has happened.

Flyboy41

16th Mar 2014, 11:16

The Chinese have the best hackers, the Americans have the best weapons and the Russians have the best spies. Still the aircraft cannot be located??

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 11:16

go to the graphic in this NY Times article,
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/world/asia/series-of-errors-by-malaysia-mounts-complicating-the-task-of-finding-flight-370.html?hp

and 6 additional hours of straight line flight (after the last radar contact 1.5 hours in) puts them right at the end of the red line (either north or south)
http://i.imgur.com/r7SeoEz.jpg

andrasz

16th Mar 2014, 11:18

To clarify reports of possible wreckage (passenger luggage) found by greek ship Elka Athina:

The ship was notified by Indonesian coast guard of possible debris in the Straits of Malacca about 4 hours ahead of its current position (probably observed from aircraft), and was asked to investigate. No sighting of anything as of yet. Given current understanding of last known position, probably another red herring.

Source: Real.gr - ?????? - ???????? ????? ????? ???? ??? ?? Boeing (http://www.real.gr/DefaultArthro.aspx?page=arthro&id=306744&catID=4)

porch monkey

16th Mar 2014, 11:20

"That's how the Americans tracked Sputnik". Do you see the flaw with your statement?

daikilo

16th Mar 2014, 11:21

Richardgb,

Yes, whilst direction is unknown, it is suggested that the data does have a time stamp allowing the distance to be calculated from emission to reception. The arcs probably designate quite narrow corridors. Logically, arcs can be drawn for all the pings. A calculation of the probable maximum distance that the plane could have flown from the last point recorded should intersect the arc. Likewise, similar plots for the other pings should indicate if the plane was indeed fling approximately straight. This should be more obvious for the southern arcs but should also be possible for the northen.

SVR

16th Mar 2014, 11:22

If you were a Government (or for that matter any NGO) negotiating for the lives of 200+ people I don't think you would be broadcasting the fact. I cannot recall any hostage situation where the public have been provided with a running commentary of the negotiations.

aerobat77

16th Mar 2014, 11:23

@aerobat77

Is that scenario not contradicted by ACARS having been disabled prior to the last words spoken to ATC?

not really. acars system failure alone is not an emergency so they sounded normal without reporting it to ATC - they might wanted to first sort out why that happend , in the next minute things became catastrophic and not time to report ynything more.

@mods : am i blind or was my post with a non james bond explanation deleted ?

Speed of Sound

16th Mar 2014, 11:24

Certainly the most reasoned scenario so far.

All this nonsense about terrorists, robbers or suicide pilots all seem to be based on evidence that is at very best sketchy.

1. "The ACARS/Transponder/Comms were disabled deliberately."

There is no evidence for this and there won't be until the aircraft is found and even then, maybe not.

2. "MH370 flew west at FL295 to avoid other traffic."

This altitude is a guess based on primary radar returns which must allow for a +/- 1000ft error which basically eliminates any supposition based on a '500 ft' level.

3. "The aircraft was skillfully flown from waypoint to waypoint carefully avoiding radar cover".

Again, no evidence for this. Data from a handful of 'pings' and some sketchy radar returns do not show any deliberation in the flightpath either to fly waypoints or to avoid radar. The track shown could just as easily be a random event or even wishful thinking on those trying to 'make the line fit'. Constellations don't really exist in space. They are just human attempts to join up the dots.

A catastrophic failure followed by rapid decompression is still the most likely explanation.

snowfalcon2

16th Mar 2014, 11:25

Doppler from multiple geostationary sats would give you derived heading, speed and possibly location. It's how the Americans tracked Sputnik.

Just a moment please. Sputnik was a polar-orbiting satellite, not a geostationary one. And the Americans certainly did not have any geostationary satellites in 1957.

You can track polar orbiters from the ground using doppler shift, yes. But the geometrics of a geostationary satellite at 36 000 km listening to a comparatively slow target at 10 km altitude do not allow a significant doppler shift.

The doppler shift method (also used by COSPAS/SARSAT) is based on being able to track a continuous signal while the satellite passes the target. On the first pass you can get the latitude (point of doppler shift changing from approaching to retreating) and after the next satellite pass and a second fix you may calculate the longitude.

None of this is applicable to MH370 and geostationary satellites.

aviator1970

16th Mar 2014, 11:29

News doing rounds in Indian media that search by Indian ships and aircraft is now on hold TFN due to request by Malay authorities... any more info on this?

GraemeO

16th Mar 2014, 11:30

@ Uncle Maxwell

Some aircraft are captured by satellite imagery while in flight. See Google Earth latitude 53.916501 longitude -2.789953 for a good example.
If I understand correctly, this sort of imagery comes from satellites in low earth orbit, which means that each point on the ground is captured briefly and intermittently as a satellite passes overhead, so most airborne aircraft are missed.

harrogate

16th Mar 2014, 11:31

More and more reports coming out of Greece and now Indonesia of potential luggage debris in the Straits of Malacca that a Greek tanker has been tasked to investigate.

SaturnV

16th Mar 2014, 11:36

At this point, the probabilities are high that the U.S. government knows more than it is saying, more than it is telling the Malaysians, and probably sharing only with its Echelon partners, the UK and Australia.

There is a reason why the location of all the pings (other than the last) has not yet been publicly released.

Pontius Navigator

16th Mar 2014, 11:37

Has anything been said about the operating culture in the airline? Or the operating culture by this pilot?

Was it normal for one pilot to have a nap either on the flight deck or in 1st Class? If the captain told the 1st pilot to go take a nap or said he was going to take a nap, would the other have said no?

PS

What were the pilots doing in their off duty period prior to the flight? Resting or active all day?

slats11

16th Mar 2014, 11:37

Henra
That thinking has been repeated here again aind again but after a biref reality check it doesn't hold water.
which terrorists got which publicity that would support their cause?

The world has changed. Terrorists used to want specific goals. That meant they had to identify themselves (or their demands identified them).

Now it is a broader goal. The goal is to create terror.

No one claimed responsibility for 9/11, nor for various incidents since. Terrorist groups have been held responsible, but they haven't claimed responsibility themselves.

p.j.m

16th Mar 2014, 11:37

http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/item/a%CF%81%CF%87%CE%AD%CF%82-%CE%BC%CE%B1%CE%BB%CE%B1%CE%B9%CF%83%CE%AF%CE%B1%CF%82-%CE%B6%CE%B7%CF%84%CE%BF%CF%8D%CE%BD-%CE%B2%CE%BF%CE%AE%CE%B8%CE%B5%CE%B9%CE%B1-%CE%BA%CE%B1%CE%B9-%CE%B1%CF%80%CF%8C-%CE%AC%CE%BB%CE%BB%CE%B5%CF%82-%CF%87%CF%8E%CF%81%CE%B5%CF%82-%CE%B3%CE%B9%CE%B1-%CF%84%CE%BF%CE%BD-%CE%B5%CE%BD%CF%84%CE%BF%CF%80%CE%B9%CF%83%CE%BC%CF%8C-%CF%84%CE%BF%CF%85-%CE%BC%CF%80%CF%8C%CE%B9%CE%BD%CE%B3%CE%BA-777

mentions nothing about debris in the Malacca straits or a greek ship
only
According to the announcement, the authorities have been in contact with the governments of countries whose territory the two runways which could be followed by flight MI370.

and a few other already well known facts

Sheep Guts

16th Mar 2014, 11:39

How does the satellite link on the aircraft know to switch from the IOR to the POR satellite. Any sat wiz kids can tell me how it works? Is it signal strength from the Aircraft or is it signal strength from the Sat itself and then send a handshake change Frequency instruction? If this handshake change freq. instruction is not decoded wouldn't it keep talking to the IOR sat and not the POR one. If this is the case then the omitted 40 degree rings need to be joined again. Which incidentally is right over the airways and initial suspected area of the original search in the South China Sea. Which incidentally hasn't be totally covered by either Nation or agency. Now it is going to be cut short.
Also the other pings in between 01:07am and 08:11am have not been disclosed to us yet.

Is there someone out there who can tell me how Immersat works?

Ozjim

16th Mar 2014, 11:40

I feel like the people still posting about the possibility of technical failures causing this incident are clutching at straws. Given the comms going off at seperate times and the waypoint flying, surely there has to have been a non-hypoxic human being at the controls.

Also, can't see the motivation for a terrorist group to hijack this particular flight unless they were targetting KL, and from direction plane went, that doesn't seem likely. The theories like the aircraft being hijacked and used to fly into the Hague or another target at a later date make no sense. Why complicate matters by hijacking a plane in KL to commit an act of terror thousands of miles away? It's the equivalent of the 9/11 terrorists hijacking planes in Brazil to eventually attack NYC.

Inside job by member of crew seems to fit the facts so far, but still has plenty of flaws.
If suicide, why not crash the plane immediately? If trying to hide the suicide by crashing in deep ocean, why fly waypoints? An experienced pilot would know that would lead to suspicion falling on crew.
If politically motivated, say Captain Shah hijacking over Anwar Ibrahim verdict, why has there been no note or message explaining actions? If someone was motivated by anger over the trial, they would want the media/public to know the reasons for their actions. One possible explanation for the confusion and red herrings over the past week would be that a document taking responsibility and explaining political motivation was in fact found early on. The Malaysians could have attempted to cover it up to avoid political embarassment and been foiled by pressure from US and others. Wild speculation, I know, but something about the Malaysian government response seems a little strange, more than just garden variety government incompetence.