Aer Lingus - 5

[akerosid]

If there is a full U-turn on SNN to the extent that BFS-LHR will be axed, I think there will be a lot of reflection among EI investors about the quality of leadership; it comes on top of failings on the long haul front and in particularly DXB, which was squarely down to failings by EI.

I'm sure there is a lot of calculation in what MOL says, but at the end of the day, I suspect that the current downturn may end up being a lot harder for FR to get through than EI.

[100above]

As Code 100 mentioned above, this isnt EI's first attempt at operating to Europe from the UK. I remember travelling Aer Lingus on an ID90 ticket MAN-CPH in the late 80s - I didnt need to worry about whether or not I would get on as the 737-200 on the route was deserted. It didnt work then when there were high fares and very little competition. Quite how they reckon they can make this work when they are up against LGWs locos and charter outfits is beyond me.

[EI-BUD]

EI-BUD why would a BHX base be lunacy?

...DAZA

Hi Daza,
Thanks for your reply. The reason why I think Aer Lingus choosing BHX would be lunacy is because 1. FR would follow them onto each market almost immediately. 2. Going to LGW does offer some protection from FR competition as it is unlikely without opening a LGW base FR would be unlikely to join EI on the same routes. 3. Flybe is well established at BHX as is bmibaby. I think that BHX will be a very tough market in the coming few years. Not assuming that LGW will be a piece of cake!

My view is that if Aer Lingus has been able to manage competing so closely with FR at Dublin in particular they will be well able to manage against EZY and BA at LGW. I still think that the transatlantic is the market that EI are after.

Finally, just your comment about BFS. It might seem like a bad choice, but the reality is that the EI brand is alot better know in NI than other UK markets I would say. Besides I think that EI picked BFS based on the level of business that they got from NI customers and customers in the border areas too.

No offence meant to BHX airport, one that I actually like using, I just see for EIs specific situation an airport such as LGW with limiting factors (ie slot availability) is a far safer bet.

EI-BUD

[EI-BUD]

The BFS/LHR route isn't popular, waste of an A320. BD is still superior to EI and of course i'll get flamed for saying this but selling cheap seats on a business intensive route out of lough neagh regional is a bit dim witted.

...by SUPER737

Yes you will get flamed, I never read such rubbish. BFS LHR Isnt popular? What bull. It is as popular as any other Belfast London route. Have you checked the load factor on any Belfast London route lately???????

Just check EZYs BFS flights. Even Ryanair and Bmi from the city and the loads are appalling. And as for the comments on selling cheap seats on a business intensive route... Well you simply dont know the level of cheap seats, yes it would seems that there are alot of cheap seats but we dont know the extent of this. Shannon LHR Was just the same.

And alas for all the people who seem to be an authority on EIs plans for BFS LHR I would cool down if I were you. EI will not be axing BFS LHR but they will move to make FRs promises redundant on the purchase of EI.

A slot from BFS may go to support a SNN flight and one from DUB or ORK.
So that will lead to 2 a day as has been suggested. This is very likely to be announced early in 2009.

[EI-BUD]

EI Knock Gatwick

Just a note on NOC LGW. There as comments saying that NOC LGW was not viable for FR XL or EZY.

Well this is not exactly true. If EZY had been left to its own devices and FR had not ran in after them it probably still be flying. The level of capacity on the route was not sustainable and not at all profitable for anyone. In fact at this time when both carriers operated the route, none of the London Knock routes were profitable. However, NOC LGW did attract about 60k pax that year. NOC LGW is just as sustainable as STN or LTN, FRs greed meant that they were running everyone else out of town and then making passengers fly to STN or LTN where they could get lower charges.

XL found it impossible as the brand was not known in NOC and besides FR dropped the prices so so low to keep there chances of getting established very poor.

Best of luck to EI on the route, but I would be surprised if FR dont join them on it.

[Daza]

EI@LGW

I hope all goes well for EI at LGW and the routes they have chosen don't all have overlap. LGW has seen some route loss and consolidation so maybe EI can eek out a market there.
If the same routes had operated ex BHX only VIE would be solely served by EI.
Daza

[EI-BUD]

LGW-DUB will double in frequency on a codeshare basis

Lord Lardy

BA is axing LGW DUB with effect from end of winter schedule and EI will increase theirs from 4 to 5 a day. so not doubling of frequency there. So BA are coming onto BFS LHR once a day??? Where did this information come from? It sounds a bit far fetched to me. I dont see this happening.
BA are avoiding markets that are saturated and at the moment Belfast London does not need another operator.

Aer Lingus' costbase will be as low as any other operaters out of Gatwick when the base opens

I agree with this comment completely. EI have a good cost base, although not as low as FR it is in good shape. If EI can manage to compete with FR at DUB at such a scale for so long they are well fit to manage against EZY.

You are also spot on re the A330. Aer Lingus are set on expanding the transatlantic schedule and BFS was chosen partly for this and that will come once the current financial climate improves and then we have LGW!
This will do fine!


EI-BUD

[Aisle2c]

But surely with the pre-immigration setup in DUB & SNN, the aim should have been to get people routed through Ireland, rather than going t/a from LGW ?

[OltonPete]

320's

Are the Gatwick aircraft just redeployed from Dublin or do they have
four on order for 2009 (I thought it was only one).

Also is there any likelyhood that they will just replicate more of BA's Gatwick routes allowing BA downsize naturally or is that just been cynical? Does it not mention eight planes eventually?

I still think they missed a great chance at bhx before ryanair moved
in but that is history now and unless there is more to this announcement
as some have suggested it does seem another strange decision.

Pete

[NWSRG]

The largest catchment area in the British Isles is around London. EI are right to tap into that market...and those passengers would not want to go trans-atlantic via a stop-over in SNN...

LGW - JFK / MCO / SFO / LAX etc...all possible money-spinners, particularly with a large Irish community in London, who may choose to fly with EI...

[racedo]

Also is there any likelyhood that they will just replicate more of BA's Gatwick routes allowing BA downsize naturally or is that just been cynical?

Given that one Wille Walsh was boss of EI then think you are pretty close to the mark.

Comes across as a rushed decision to try and claim still proactive and growing so FR shouldn't take us over.

Going back to SNN smacks of desperation and an attempt to buy politicians off. But given what they said when they exited it may not work.

[toledoashley]

There are some routes that have either been left or could be tapped into from Gatwick:

Nantes
Funchal
Dusseldorf
Warsaw
Bourgas
Bordeaux (Sorry thought that had been dropped!)
Bilbao
Tenerife?

[Daza]

BA routes ex LGW

BA fly twice daily to BOD ex LGW

[Lord Lardy]

Also is there any likelyhood that they will just replicate more of BA's Gatwick routes allowing BA downsize naturally or is that just been cynical?

Spot on.

No redeployment of aircraft or crew. Four A320 being sourced at the moment. Four more to follow late next year with reference to above.

[A319-100]

I am sorry but I really cant see Aer Lingus working at Gatwick. It is far too competitive there at the moment. If for example Aer Lingus are successful on some of their routes what are the chances of EZY leaving them alone. I personally think EZY will fight strongly to protect their patch at LGW. Easyjet have massive plans for LGW. Aer Lingus are now going to be fighting battles on 3 fronts while openly forecasting extensive losses next year. They are not anywhere close to being a market leader in any of their bases and they are now competing with the most aggresive airlines in Ryanair( who have a personal vendetta against Aer Lingus and could possibly replicate or target these routes for the sake of it) and easyjet. Dublin-Ryanair, BFS-EZY, LGW-EZY. Like throwing my goldfish in with a tank full of piranhas. I hope I will stand corrected...... The reason Aer Lingus do well in Dublin is that there are a group of pax who will not fly with Ryanair so Aer Lingus is the option, a good one at that. In LGW there will be no loyalty towards them and price will dictate. I just hope this is not a decision they will regret........

[ALLMCC]

Call me cynical if you want but, with the announcement of the Gatwick base, I feel the writing is on the wall for the BFS base. Their 12 months at BFS (their first base outside Ireland) has hardly been a resounding success despite claims to the contrary from DM. The only route which has shown reasonable success is LHR and even then they are still carrying less than half the passenger numbers of BMI from BHD. Hardly surprising when passenger numbers from LHR to Belfast have been reducing consistently over the past few years. Other routes out of BFS have been started and pulled within months which would suggest that their market research into whether there was demand for these routes was somewhat wide of the mark in the first place.

To be fair to EI, their foray into the already saturated Belfast market was due more to massive pressure from both the British and Irish governments than for any commercial reasons. I hope I am proved wrong but I do believe there will no base at BFS in 12 months time with the based aircraft being redeployed to other bases such as Gatwick and the precious slots at LHR being put to more profitable use. Just my opinion.

[True Blue]

Isn't it amazing the number of people who just thirst for Ei to fail at Bfs. Never a word about Fr at Bhd.

When Fr have pushed everyone out at Bhd and the bhd lovers have nothing but Fr to use, how will they feel then?

I have used Ei several times ex Bfs and found them excellant. I wonder how many of the people making comments here about Ei's failure at Lgw know what they are talking about?

This could be a very good move by Ei, lots of capacity has been taken out of the market, some of the routes have no competition. They are getting slots while they are still available, soon there will be none left. Fr will not get in on any size and the market will recover. Lgw is positioned in one of the best off regions of the UK. There is a large market there, which other airlines have failed to capture in their rush to get to Lhr. Now they are finding that Lhr is not what they thought either.

Very good luck to Ei.

True Blue

[waffler]

Imagine the deals you can get now from the oil companies, airports and aircraft manufacturers if you have cash and the euro in the UK. Its worth a go.

[chrism20]

Are BA going to codeshare on any of these? Could make a big difference to the loads...... I know EI will duplicate some routes but we could see something along the lines of what happens at LHR with the MAD services

[tigger2k8]

i too dont see why people think aer lingus will fail at BFS...

sure the last 2 months the loads have been light from BFS, but it was exactly the same on EZY in the last week loads have increased, especially on the inbound flights.. so it all balances out

they'll prob cut flights but i dont see them pulling out

will just have to wait and see, as i dont think anyone knows whats going to happen for the next few years