Aer Lingus - 5
The press release seems to say that United will be responsible for the revenue generation while Aer Lingus do the operational side. This translates to me as UA flogging the tickets while EI do things involving physical obejcts - like providing an airframe.
A few questions arise:
1) Do United not have any medium / long-range airframes parked in the desert which they could use instead (and thus avoid having to pay EI any lease payments) ?
2) The marketing campaign in Spain and the USA is presumably down to United. Will the EI name be relegated to a bit of asterisked text saying 'operated jointly with Aer Lingus' ?
3) Will the airframe be repainted and interior refit to match UA, or will it look the same as any other long-haul EI airframe ?
4) Could Aer Lingus not find any other route on which to use a long-haul airframe under their own name ? Perhaps something out of their new mini-hub at LGW to take advantage of marketing and operational efficiencies ?
5) EI are no longer part of OneWorld, but they still retain close links with many of their former partners. How close are links between EI and Iberia ? Can't imagine IB (or potentially BA if the BA-IB merger happens) are particularly happy about this.
I know that MAD-IAD will generate a good dollop of business class pax, feeds into a UA hub and so on...... but it still seem a rather unusual deal.
A few questions arise:
1) Do United not have any medium / long-range airframes parked in the desert which they could use instead (and thus avoid having to pay EI any lease payments) ?
2) The marketing campaign in Spain and the USA is presumably down to United. Will the EI name be relegated to a bit of asterisked text saying 'operated jointly with Aer Lingus' ?
3) Will the airframe be repainted and interior refit to match UA, or will it look the same as any other long-haul EI airframe ?
4) Could Aer Lingus not find any other route on which to use a long-haul airframe under their own name ? Perhaps something out of their new mini-hub at LGW to take advantage of marketing and operational efficiencies ?
5) EI are no longer part of OneWorld, but they still retain close links with many of their former partners. How close are links between EI and Iberia ? Can't imagine IB (or potentially BA if the BA-IB merger happens) are particularly happy about this.
I know that MAD-IAD will generate a good dollop of business class pax, feeds into a UA hub and so on...... but it still seem a rather unusual deal.
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No existing service seems to exist which seems strange as if such high potential then you would think an existing service would be a competitor.
On dates I looked there was none but relooking on Iberia there was only 1 direct service so doesn't appear to be that much of a demand as most flights are via Logan / JFK / Ord.
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Just a spotter:
From what I've heard, yes it will be a direct flight.
Initially 3 aircraft will be deployed for it (EI A330's), not clear whether they'll be based in MAD, IAD or another United hub in the US.
Crews will be hired within the US.
From what I've heard, yes it will be a direct flight.
Initially 3 aircraft will be deployed for it (EI A330's), not clear whether they'll be based in MAD, IAD or another United hub in the US.
Crews will be hired within the US.
Thanks EF
3 AC from a fleet of 9 seems to take a big chunk out of the EI long haul capability.
Are they suggesting using the AC exclusively on the route, providing multiple flights per day, or is it 3 AC rotated through the route (perhaps with a specific cabin layout) and the EI network?
JAS
3 AC from a fleet of 9 seems to take a big chunk out of the EI long haul capability.
Are they suggesting using the AC exclusively on the route, providing multiple flights per day, or is it 3 AC rotated through the route (perhaps with a specific cabin layout) and the EI network?
JAS
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I thought Aer Lingus were getting cozy with Jet Blue? No?
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I doubt the aircraft will be from the Irish based fleet, they are likely to be new aircraft either from the batch of 6 currently on order or a new aircraft sourced from elsewhere.
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Aer Lingus
It will be interesting to see if ryanair compete on same routes from LGW or any other ones after takeover is now rejected by the goverment. Aer Lingus should have not left the LHR route from shannon but would been nice if another carried started from LHR to NOC. Managment team working well in noc has come a long way in a few years 
Last edited by airnoc; 23rd Jan 2009 at 20:25. Reason: Left out a few important words!!!!
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I agree they should have never touched the shannon Heathrow route however shannon now has a lhr and cdg service.
As regards Knock its great that Aer Lingus are introducing a daily service in these recessionary times. Aer lingus have reported very strong bookings on all their new services from lgw. I wonder if this flight will be a codeshare with BA and will their be interlining available on the route?
As regards Knock its great that Aer Lingus are introducing a daily service in these recessionary times. Aer lingus have reported very strong bookings on all their new services from lgw. I wonder if this flight will be a codeshare with BA and will their be interlining available on the route?
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Aer.l 1.05
Just looking at the ticker, share price has dropped off a cliff this morning. at the moment 21% lost. Is this a response to the Irish Governments rejection of the FR offer?
Interesting times
Interesting times
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Ryanair told where the door is... again
As the Irish government yet again reject a takeover of Aer Lingus
BBC NEWS | Business | Ryanair bid for Aer Lingus fails
BBC NEWS | Business | Ryanair bid for Aer Lingus fails
In many ways the share price falling off a cliff gives shareholders a clear option.
Hold on with no prospect of dividends or share price growth or sell and take the cash in a recession.
Interesting dilema.
If FR increased their offer price to €1.80 next week makes it even more interesting.
Hold on with no prospect of dividends or share price growth or sell and take the cash in a recession.
Interesting dilema.
If FR increased their offer price to €1.80 next week makes it even more interesting.
Last edited by racedo; 23rd Jan 2009 at 12:29. Reason: illegal speculation on takeover bid price
It's normal for a company's share price to drop following an unsuccessful attempt to take them over.
The market prices in the possibility of a higher bid price and so pumps up the stock prices. As in this case, no higher bid arose so the speculative element of the price evaporates. Those buying hoping for a higher sell price have to sell out of their positions, driving the price down and with fewer buyers, the price drops.
The price drop is not a reflection on EI as such.
@350
thanks, how likely do you think an increase to the fleet of 3 additional 330's would be? Are there GE powered 330's available out there?
JAS
The market prices in the possibility of a higher bid price and so pumps up the stock prices. As in this case, no higher bid arose so the speculative element of the price evaporates. Those buying hoping for a higher sell price have to sell out of their positions, driving the price down and with fewer buyers, the price drops.
The price drop is not a reflection on EI as such.
@350
thanks, how likely do you think an increase to the fleet of 3 additional 330's would be? Are there GE powered 330's available out there?
JAS
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Share Prices
Aer Lingus shares 2 days ago 1.40 euro
Aer Lingus shares yesterday 1.35 euro
Aer Lingus shares trading today at 1.19 euro
Looks like a freefall as expected by MOL after the government rejects takeover!!
Aer Lingus shares yesterday 1.35 euro
Aer Lingus shares trading today at 1.19 euro
Looks like a freefall as expected by MOL after the government rejects takeover!!
Whenever a takeover bid involving a purely cash offer for the acquiree fails, one always expects the share price to fall sharply.
Suppose BigCompany makes a cash bid for SmallCompany. Suppose that the day before the bid, SmallCompany's share price is 1 euro. BigCompany offers to pay 1.5 euros per share. After the offer is announced, one of the following things happen to SmallCompany's share price
1) People think the bid has no chance - share price remains at 1 euro
2) People think the bid might be accepted at 1.5 euros - share price rises to between 1 euro and 1.5 euros
3) People think that 1.5 euros is still not enough and that BigCompany will make a higher bid later - share price rises to above 1.5 euros
If the bid fails, the share price of SmallCompany will then return to somewhere around 1 euro - or maybe a little higher if people think a different company might bid instead.
Using the above, BigCompany = Ryanair, SmallCompany = Aer Lingus. We would expect the Aer Lingus share price to fall because Ryanair's bid has failed. Further, while Ryanair hold a 29% stake in Aer Lingus, it looks unlikely that any other airline will bid for Aer Lingus.
MOL can make as much noise as he likes about this to the press, but significant investors and banks will dsmiss the fall in the Aer Lingus share price in the last couple of days as a complete non-event
Suppose BigCompany makes a cash bid for SmallCompany. Suppose that the day before the bid, SmallCompany's share price is 1 euro. BigCompany offers to pay 1.5 euros per share. After the offer is announced, one of the following things happen to SmallCompany's share price
1) People think the bid has no chance - share price remains at 1 euro
2) People think the bid might be accepted at 1.5 euros - share price rises to between 1 euro and 1.5 euros
3) People think that 1.5 euros is still not enough and that BigCompany will make a higher bid later - share price rises to above 1.5 euros
If the bid fails, the share price of SmallCompany will then return to somewhere around 1 euro - or maybe a little higher if people think a different company might bid instead.
Using the above, BigCompany = Ryanair, SmallCompany = Aer Lingus. We would expect the Aer Lingus share price to fall because Ryanair's bid has failed. Further, while Ryanair hold a 29% stake in Aer Lingus, it looks unlikely that any other airline will bid for Aer Lingus.
MOL can make as much noise as he likes about this to the press, but significant investors and banks will dsmiss the fall in the Aer Lingus share price in the last couple of days as a complete non-event
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If Ryanair and Micheal O'Leary can't have Aer Lingus, they'll do whatever they can to get rid of them.
Ryanair, the Irish government and staff all have big chunks of Aer Lingus so there isn't much room to move and it's forcing the share price down. It also allows Ryanair to have a say on every move Aer Lingus makes and both these factors are reasons why Aer Lingus are desperate to have the shareholding removed or at least reduced.
Aer Lingus and the shareprice will be better off without Ryanair sticking its oar in. Ryanair know this and that's why they have no intention of selling the shares.
Ryanair, the Irish government and staff all have big chunks of Aer Lingus so there isn't much room to move and it's forcing the share price down. It also allows Ryanair to have a say on every move Aer Lingus makes and both these factors are reasons why Aer Lingus are desperate to have the shareholding removed or at least reduced.
Aer Lingus and the shareprice will be better off without Ryanair sticking its oar in. Ryanair know this and that's why they have no intention of selling the shares.
Last edited by Shamrock350; 23rd Jan 2009 at 13:27.
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FR increasing their offer price to €1.80 next week makes it even more interesting.
Ryanair, the Irish government and staff all have big chunks of Aer Lingus so there isn't much room to move and it's forcing the share price down. It also allows Ryanair to have a say on every move Aer Lingus makes and both these factors are reasons why Aer Lingus are desperate to have the shareholding removed or at least reduced.
Aer Lingus and the shareprice will be better off without Ryanair sticking its ore in. Ryanair know this and that's why they have no intention of selling the shares.
Ryanair is playing dirty tricks.
thanks, how likely do you think an increase to the fleet of 3 additional 330's would be? Are there GE powered 330's available out there?
Shamrock 350
You are right as my post on shareprice was speculation but seemed to suggest it would happen which I have no idea of.
Point was that IF an increase in offer occured the gap between market price and bid price may be so big as to change some shareholders viewpoints given the drop that has occured this morning.
You are right as my post on shareprice was speculation but seemed to suggest it would happen which I have no idea of.
Point was that IF an increase in offer occured the gap between market price and bid price may be so big as to change some shareholders viewpoints given the drop that has occured this morning.