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Old 20th Dec 2008, 11:15
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Pearson to battle Ryanair in outright bid for Aer Lingus - Irish - Independent.ie

game on...??
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 11:26
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With respect h&s, are these your own thoughts or just regurgitated Ryanair press releases
mate, you probably haven't the time, but if you have 5 min, just look at my former messages and you'll see that accusing me of regurgitated ryanair press release is totally non sense

Selecting an aircraft type is not only a question of cost per seat but also of business model, capacity, price per aircraft, services package etc
EZY selected Airbus because the last had to enter into the LCC market (at this time, Boeing was wining all the big LCC orders) and offered them an unbeatable price, but also because smaller aircraft suited well EZY business model which is serving main airport with smaller A/C but frequencies, rather than secondary airport with bigger A/C but fewer frequencies

The total DOC of a 738 is bigger than a 319, but then you divided one by 156 and the other by 189, so at the end, I guarantee you than the cost per seat of a 738 is unbeatable, and I don't work for FR or Boeing, and that do not mean that this aircraft is the best, because airline doesn't care to have the potential lowest cost per seat aircraft if they forecast an average of 100 passengers by trip

ItsAjob, you have a good point, but even considering the outsourced staff, the ratio is a lot lower for FR. If you knew the number of people working in finance, new route development or revenue management for such a big compagny, you'll be chocked!

Lord Lady, I agree with you, this is why I said that I only compared short haul vs. short haul
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 11:28
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H & S is a disgruntled former Ryanair employee from the revenue management department and his comments are generally anti-ryanair so his pro Ryanair comments on the boeing aircraft cost seem ok to me. I think it is accepted that both Easyjet and Ryanair have similar cost per seat from Airbus and Boeing but with a greater number of seats the Ryanair operating cost per seat is lower cause everything from fuel to crew divided by bigger number
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 11:36
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There you are again racedo, When the managers and chairman say EI will be in profit for the year, we are to believe you are we?
Well given the change what they are saying every month you could do worse. All of a sudden their dismal forecast of November changes significantly because FR made a bid.

Its dismissal of people via redundancy doesn't get shown in its Operating profit - it gets treated as an exceptional item before overall profit but given that 1st half year results showed they had to inject cash then how exactly is it going to dramatically change in the second half of the year ?

It has to inject cash into the business each year which means its making none.
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 11:39
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And a lot of FR's staffing costs are are hidden by the fact they use a lot of contract staff.
If you took all these into account I wonder what the true employee figure would be?
Really ?

Well as both companies P&L accounts are published then do show how these could be hidden ?
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 12:07
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Cash generated in first half year was €177m so somehow the idea that they are not generating cash is not being reflected in reporting results.
What the F%$£ are you on about?
A real measure of whether a company is trading profitably is the cash it can generate as companies can go bust showing great profits BUT few go bust showing lots of cash.

EI needed to burn through cash €12M in 2007, €11M in first half of 2008 and who knows in second half of the year given that it has to make huge redundancy payments.

EI is not generating any cash so needs to use up what it has in the bank or borrow.
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 13:09
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As regards comments that Aer Lingus started off badly with poor publicity, I really cant see how differently or better it could have been done.
widespread TV advertising at peak times, bill boards all over the province, newspaper advertising, advertising on the back of buses, sponsorship of one of the morning radio shows. I think we were bombarded with information and news on the subject. The market is limited in a challenging economic climate. Aer Lingus will come out of this better and when the economic climate lifts they will boom.
Aer Lingus faced uproar from Shannon and a constant backlash from the press plus mounting pressure from unions which lead to a number of strike threats that would have cast doubt in peoples mind. The advertising was good and I'm pleased to see them doing the schools art competition and the Belfast marathon, although I hope for an even better campaign for the LGW base.

I think the base is in a far healthier position than it was a year ago and I'm sure they'll stick with the base despite what some seem to hope.
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 18:34
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Personally I think EI will do very well out of LGW as a base and the carrier is well known . In the catchment area of LGW their is a lot of celtic people living in the area.

Lets hope EI give FR a run for their money !
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 20:21
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Flyer55,

FR only has 5 or 6 routes out LGW so not really a threat to them.

I am convinced EZY will do their best to kill them in LGW by having very low prices on the same routes.
EZY has big cash reserves and no annual losses so far and 40 planes based there. Can Aer Lingus afford that with poor loads in BFS and longhaul route cuts in DUB?
I don't think so it is doomed to disaster unless they find routes no one else fly on. If they do, how long before EZY and other operators are on these routes too. I wish there was space for all airlines in this world and that they all will all do well. Unfortunately I think you will be dissappointed to see them shutting down the LGW base again within 2 years maximum.
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 21:08
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I hate to get personal, but I do wonder if racedo is the less looney version ( slightly) of LHC. The uninformed guff is the same if somewhat less eloquent
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 21:23
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LGW will be the new BFS i predict, with everyone predicting its failure within a few years.. in the first year Aer Lingus had 750,000 passengers from BFS.. when they had only aimed for 500,000

"And as part of that process we are pleased to announce that we will be adding Tenerife to the schedule from mid-September and increasing services on Rome, Faro, Malaga and Lanzarote during next summer.
source: Belfast International Airport :: News

if they are increasing those flights then they must be considering adding a 4th base aircraft, as the 3 that are currently based there barely sit on the ground apart from at night.. or i suppose they could reduce the turn-around times like easyJet, but this could be difficult due to the services that all need to get to the plane.. especially when catering, ground ops and the wheelchair assistance usually block each other
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 22:46
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Carmoisine:With respect h&s, are these your own thoughts or just regurgitated Ryanair press releases? The only ones I have heard make such unconditional claims are Ryanair and Boeing. If it is true why did Easy go with Airbus? What facts do you use to make this claim?

If I could add to this dispute!! Ryanair had agreed to buy airbus, and MOL got airbus to fax through a copy of the price per Airbus aircraft as was agreed wiht Airbus. He then sent it on to Boeing. MOL wanted Boeing so any pull he had to get the best price he used it. He gave the 2 fingers to Airbus and got his knock down price on the 738 believed to be about 40% off and the standard 'book price' of a 738, (said to be $58Million,not sure of this).

Airbus were not happy and this led to them making sure that price was right for EZY. Easyjet had similar prices from Airbus and Boeing and to clinch the deal Airbus agreed to pay for all conversion training of Boeing 737 pilots. At this rate Easyjet had there mind made up and I believe that Easyjet wanted something different. The Airbus 319 that Easyjet have was specially made for Easyjet with more seats than any other airbus 319 to date, hence the extra 2 emergency exits (overwing) (8in total). This was an easyjet idea!!

Few actually know which aircraft has lowest seat costs. I would be led to believe that Ryanair is lower seat costs as there are many more seats to cover the overhead ie 189 v 156.

It is all very well and good comparing the operating efficiencies of a 738 v a 319 and it makes for interesting reading, but this is all fine assuming the aircraft is full? I believe and have often said this, the 738 is too big for many FR markets and despite the 'model' there are many occassions where Ryanair could attract much higher traffic on thinner routes with a smaller aircraft (ie at higher frequency and tap into business traffic). Surely this is a cost to the business???

Last edited by EI-BUD; 20th Dec 2008 at 23:46.
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Old 20th Dec 2008, 23:37
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I hate to get personal, but I do wonder if racedo is the less looney version ( slightly) of LHC. The uninformed guff is the same if somewhat less eloquent
Course you do. Bit like the guy who says I'm not racist, sexist, homophobe whatever then adds in the BUT to disbuse every body of that previous qualification.

Figures I'm using are freely available off EI and FR websites in their published Quarterly, Half Yearly and Annual returns......if you want to disprove any of them please go ahead.
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Old 21st Dec 2008, 00:26
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Somewhat naive. Considering Anglo Irish Bank hid €87mill off the books for the last eight years and it all looked pretty on the surface??
Micko wont be able to hide for much longer
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Old 21st Dec 2008, 04:18
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Think it's all sorted on the Shannon-London front. A quick check of the Aer Lingus website for July shows the traditional 0650-0800 departure to Dublin gone along with the 0850-1010 return flight to London but there is still a departure to Dublin at 1115. Guess thar plane will be heading to Shannon so. Also the 1910 departure to Dublin is missing after an arrival at 1815 so expect that plane is headed for Shannon too and returing to Heathrow to overnight. Morning and evening Shannon service delivered - matching MOL's promise.

Net effect for Dublin flyers is a cut from 13 to 11 daily frequencies with the first departure to Dublin an hour later at 0745 but still in Dublin for 0900 and the last departure from Dublin at 2015 instead of 2115. Probably a price worth paying in these difficult times to deliver 2 daily returns to Shannon and with Gatwick going up to 6 a day from a 4 a day - no loss in seat numbers to London from Dublin. Wondered if they would switch an A330 to the LHR second service to compensate for the drop in flights but seems not with just a 50 minute turnaround in LHR.

Anybody know if ground handling is being kept at Shannon following the latest agreement. If it is that's a problem as there will be a Shannon arrival at about 2030/departure 2115 when the previous flights will be departing at 1315 to Boston and 1330 to New York. There are no other EI movements scheduled after that at Shannon apart from this LHR service.

At this rate it would probably be worthwhile for them to add a middle of the day frequency from LGW as well.

I hope EI suceed in LGW and I think they just might. They are now well established as a high quality low cost and could win customers from the other operators as their prices do seem low. Even 10-15 years ago ther might have been a resistance to an Irish carrier setting up as a serious operator in South East England but I think times have changed and passengers are lead by fares and service to a secondary extent.

The routes are a good mix of guaranteed high demand - like Malaga and Faro - 3 per day to Malaga is alotof capacity but it can generate almost the equivalent of that from Dublin and gaps in the market like Zurich and Vienna. I was only a kid but I remember seeing LGW with BCal/Dan Air and Air Europa through the years operating extensive European networks from LGW. EI is already Number 3 at LHR so where will it be at LGW Number 4/5?

Good to rad that extra planes are on the way as it would be a shame to see services cut in Dublin or elsewhere to deliver the frequencies at LGW. I'd only seen 1 extra aircraft for delivery in 2009 so feared Dublin would be cut but seems not.

Personally. I have a preference for EI over FR but in fairness FR revolutionised EI and turned them into a competitive and viable airline. I would fly on either of them but hope they stay as two separate airlines fighting it out for the customer.
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Old 21st Dec 2008, 09:25
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Times article on returning to profitability in 2009
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Old 21st Dec 2008, 10:03
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EI-BUD is correct in stating that only those with direct access to company sensitive data can actually say what their DOCs and yields are. Consequently very few can say what the break even load factor is. Far worse, there can be an exponential increase in costs when load factors are not acheived. FR have been funded by airports for the last few years through performance related subsidies. With the downturn we are encountering Fr are not meeting the targets to generate those subsidies. Many airports - SNN for example, actually make no money from FR, subsidising their operation entirely.
I
n their recent offer for EI, FR make a point of the EI route closures for the winter, and a the same time fail to mention that in the last few weeks they have closed more routes themselves - permanently.
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Old 21st Dec 2008, 11:09
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only those with direct access to company sensitive data can actually say what their DOCs and yields are
Many airports - SNN for example, actually make no money from FR, subsidising their operation entirely
Hence, I take it that you have access to the data that supports this.
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Old 21st Dec 2008, 11:57
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45989,you've got his number.
Racedo, you claim acquaintance with the numbers but you fail to understand the industry and its annual revenue schedule. I have neither the time nor patience to educate an FR mouthpiece. so spin on and on and on and on and on and on and on....
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Old 21st Dec 2008, 12:28
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racedo do is a FR spin merchant.....deal is FR are in serious trouble and will make straight 200m euro taking over err sorry stealing AL. It aint going to bloody happen.....see this article which just tells it as it is Sunday Business Post | Irish Business News

FR have a bunch of airplanes coming which are next to useless on the 2nd hand market with 1 FMC and no HF, like buying a car for hot climates with no air con and no radio thrown in, no one wants them. FR need to place these machines and taking AL will solve all their probs. Likewise its so easy to say AL is a basket case on the fringe of europe and needs to link. It doesnt as it's in good shape cash wise unlike Sabena, Swiss, Buzz etc that were on their hands and knees.The take over at 1.40 hasnt a knats chance, watch early 2009, it'll all evolve.

A response by Leo would be more fitting than his side kick racedo please.
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