Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Can one of you military experts tell me what these explosions are. Are they star shells to illuminate the ground or something more sinister like white phosphorus?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8Fb3gsDwhA&t=1s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8Fb3gsDwhA&t=1s
Explainer: What is White Phosphorus and Is Russia Using it in Ukraine? - The Moscow Times
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Aviation Content:
Early Morning Helicopter exercises
Early Morning Helicopter exercises
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
#Ukraine: It has now been revealed that the UK is supplying not just older Brimstone 1 but modern Brimstone 2 Dual Mode 🇬🇧 missiles to the AFU.
This model has a much superior maximum range (Claimed "more than 200% increase") plus improved seeker, software and airframe design.
This model has a much superior maximum range (Claimed "more than 200% increase") plus improved seeker, software and airframe design.
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Nice little useful addition to the kit we are providing to Ukrainian trainees, something they will cherish for life,
I think that some western governments are thinking "job done" and that it's only a matter of time before Putin is no more, either as a person or as a leader. Applying the brakes, even lightly, is actually going to give him all the time he needs to strengthen and go again. Plenty of historical examples of taking the pressure off and then regretting it!
This is exactly the time to apply more pressure.
I'm genuinely missing something here. Has there been a slow down of arms transfers to Ukraine or a weakening of sanctions?
Confusious : More regarding our lack of response to what occurred on Polish territory. That was an opportunity missed to send a very strong message!
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It would be interesting to know how close Putin's regime is to being in serious trouble. As far as I can work out, a sizeable proportion of Russian warstock has been expended, and their manufacturing capability has something like a 3 to 5 year lead time to replenish it. There are growing signs that many young men, perhaps the most capable and able, are leaving Russia and moving to countries like Georgia and Uzbekistan. The prices for rented apartments in Tbilisi, for example, have risen by around 200% to 300% over the past few months, driven by the influx of Russians escaping the draft, or persecution for their views.
We're also seeing evidence that a significant amount of Russian materiel is defective, from poor storage, poor maintenance and even indications of large scale manufacturing fraud. Russian troops seem to be generally poorly equipped, especially the most recent batch of conscripts, and I doubt they have been well-trained either - we've already seen how poor the operational capability was of supposedly top notch Russian troops, at places like Hostomel, earlier in this war. Conditions are now getting to be pretty grim as winter sets in, and everything I've seen seems to show that Ukrainian troops are better equipped, better trained, have a much greater committent to their cause, than Russian troops.
What is not in the public domain, as far as I'm aware, is any reliable assessment of the ability of Putin to stay in power. There must be a fair level of dissent within Russia already, so how long can Putin keep a lid on that, I wonder?
We're also seeing evidence that a significant amount of Russian materiel is defective, from poor storage, poor maintenance and even indications of large scale manufacturing fraud. Russian troops seem to be generally poorly equipped, especially the most recent batch of conscripts, and I doubt they have been well-trained either - we've already seen how poor the operational capability was of supposedly top notch Russian troops, at places like Hostomel, earlier in this war. Conditions are now getting to be pretty grim as winter sets in, and everything I've seen seems to show that Ukrainian troops are better equipped, better trained, have a much greater committent to their cause, than Russian troops.
What is not in the public domain, as far as I'm aware, is any reliable assessment of the ability of Putin to stay in power. There must be a fair level of dissent within Russia already, so how long can Putin keep a lid on that, I wonder?
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I read an article where they said the lack of equipment for the mobilised was down to fraud, the person in charge of it all had purchased enough for a warehouse full and pocketed the rest, at inspection time everything tallied, next warehouse inspection the contents of the first had already been shipped to it, so again everything tallied, and so it went on.. ship inspect ship..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Very intriguing, in both senses of the word, if true…
A pro-Russian channel with decent authority, Obraz Budushego, suggests Kremlin is getting worked up about the possibility of a Ukrainian advance on Crimea in spring. Critics of the war are being suppressed to prepare for more "difficult decisions" in the near future.
A pro-Russian channel with decent authority, Obraz Budushego, suggests Kremlin is getting worked up about the possibility of a Ukrainian advance on Crimea in spring. Critics of the war are being suppressed to prepare for more "difficult decisions" in the near future.
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What concerns me is a repeat of the GW1 to GW2 scenario, where an initial failure to remove a despot following the invasion of another sovereign state led to another major conflict a few years later. As long as Putin and his cronies remain in power, Russia will remain a rogue state. It seems possible, perhaps even likely, that Russia could de-escalate the war with Ukraine, simply as a means to allow them to build up their forces ready for another go in few years time.
What concerns me is a repeat of the GW1 to GW2 scenario, where an initial failure to remove a despot following the invasion of another sovereign state led to another major conflict a few years later. As long as Putin and his cronies remain in power, Russia will remain a rogue state. It seems possible, perhaps even likely, that Russia could de-escalate the war with Ukraine, simply as a means to allow them to build up their forces ready for another go in few years time.
The only way that Russia gets let off the leash would be if reliable security guarantees were provided to Ukraine to assure their sovereignty, which is what every other former CIS state needs as big brother is a bit of a bully, and rather loose with the truth. Ukraine was after such a guarantee, which is all that NATO is in the end, and that was used as one of the excuses by Russia to go and behave badly once more, as they did in Grozny, multiple times, and multiple other cities and states. So, the peace to rearm only arises by Ukraine getting the guarantee that was a trigger for Russias paranoid psycho brutality, and this is agreeable, how exactly? Ukraine has every reason to be cautious of assertions of integrity by the rest of the world; to our shame, we provided a guarantee to facilitate the removal of nuclear weapons, and then reneged on that parsing words in a manner last seen from Clinton; "well, that depends on what the "the" means in that context..." Shame on us all, and to those that consider that their inconvenience is insufferable, our own leaders led to this by their own lack of moral fibre in keeping their word. Ukraine relying on words is a dangerous assumption of any integrity remaining in our tic-toe, Facebook self centred, egocentric society. Ukraine needs munitions and systems to do what we collectively failed to do, as our collective leaders had yellow streaks circling inside their bodies trying to locate a spine.
The more I think about this, the more I think that any viable peace deal has to include an acceptance from Russia that Ukraine may join NATO. That's the only meaningful reassurance any Russian administration could give that there won't be a rematch. Without that (and I'm not sure it's achievable) I think we're heading for another uneasy standoff...
I do not think there is any comparison between the current situation and the two Gulf Wars. GW1 was a clear case of agression agaist a sovereign country and the US did a good job in welding together an international coalition to expel Saddam. Bush senior was very careful not to exceed the mandate of UN Resolution 678. In doing so, I believe he was legally correct even though the removal of Saddam might, ultimately, have been a good thing.
In 2003, Bush junior started an unncessary war on very dubious grounds - so who was the agressor in this latter case? I see no parallel.
In the case of the war in Ukraine, any cessation of hostilities without first expelling all Russian forces from the occupied regions will clearly give Putin time to re-arm and re-coup his position before agressing yet again.
In 2003, Bush junior started an unncessary war on very dubious grounds - so who was the agressor in this latter case? I see no parallel.
In the case of the war in Ukraine, any cessation of hostilities without first expelling all Russian forces from the occupied regions will clearly give Putin time to re-arm and re-coup his position before agressing yet again.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
According to all the TV reports the Russians have shipped all the troops they managed to evacuate up to support the Donetsk front. That means troops in Kherson ar3 thin on the ground. A push from both the west and north could put the UAF on the approaches to Crimea.
Ukraine has launched a massive attack on Russian-occupied cities in Kherson Oblast. This includes:
- Kakhovka
- Oleshky
- Velyka Lepetykha
- Hornostaivka
- Rubinavka
- Skadovsk
- Askaniya-Nova
- Novotroiske
Ukraine is absolutely determined to rattle Russian troops in this area.
Ukraine has launched a massive attack on Russian-occupied cities in Kherson Oblast. This includes:
- Kakhovka
- Oleshky
- Velyka Lepetykha
- Hornostaivka
- Rubinavka
- Skadovsk
- Askaniya-Nova
- Novotroiske
Ukraine is absolutely determined to rattle Russian troops in this area.
Thread detailing inspection and damage to the Nordstream pipeline.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ukraine says military operation underway on left bank of Dnipro River.
Ukraine's Southern Operational Command said that the operation had been launched on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, and a storm in the sea is helping Ukrainian troops to liberate this territory.
Ukraine's Southern Operational Command said that the operation had been launched on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, and a storm in the sea is helping Ukrainian troops to liberate this territory.
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
With the temperature dropping rapidly, and many civilians without power, does anyone know of plans to send portable generators out to Ukraine? I imagine the military of the various nations have some pretty big ones.