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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 28th Mar 2023, 23:45
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Tart

The target area will be quite large, the advantage of lobbing them into the area is to give them a greater range which then protects the jets / helicopters and crews from flying into the dangerous contested airspace from the likes of Russian manpads.

This one shows the area being hit which could be the Russian frontline trenches, build up of troops, vehicles etc


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Last edited by NutLoose; 29th Mar 2023 at 00:11.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 00:13
  #15822 (permalink)  
 
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Gunmen attacking pro-Russian/Putin forces in Chechnya.

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Old 29th Mar 2023, 00:35
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Tart

The target area will be quite large, the advantage of lobbing them into the area is to give them a greater range which then protects the jets / helicopters and crews from flying into the dangerous contested airspace from the likes of Russian manpads.

This one shows the area being hit which could be the Russian frontline trenches, build up of troops, vehicles etc



https://mobile.twitter.com/UkraineNe...80805970325506

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Yes, I've seen all that and (think ) I appreciate the risk/reward element, but it still seems heavily weighted against the attacker. Tossing relatively small explosives against people (probably ) in trenches seems a really stupid wager when weighed against a very expensive pilot and aircraft.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 01:03
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Yes, I've seen all that and (think ) I appreciate the risk/reward element, but it still seems heavily weighted against the attacker. Tossing relatively small explosives against people (probably ) in trenches seems a really stupid wager when weighed against a very expensive pilot and aircraft.
depends on the risk, breaking up a line to allow an advance, breaking up an advance, destroying an headquarter, artillery positions etc it all counts and you try to minimise the risk. If it came down to cost you would leave your expensive kit at home and fight with sticks and stones.. a barrage of those rockets I’ll do wonders in destroying moral as well.

The same can be said for using a £100,0000 missile to take down a £200 UAV, why would you? But when that missile stops a drone targeting artillery onto your men or equipment, or even giving the enemy intelligence so they can bolster defences or arrange attacks accordingly, then it is 100,000 well spent regardless of the target cost.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 01:57
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Surely not.

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Old 29th Mar 2023, 02:25
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AFAIS this is simply tossing unguided missiles in the direction of the enemy*, which isn't likely to have great success,
Look up "fire and forget" technology for air-to-surface missiles (a.k.a "smart weapons"). Missiles that can steer themselves with fins, and track in on specific targets (e.g. a single tank or building - and on occasion, a specific balcony!) by various means including sensors/cameras in the nose (radar and IR emissions from the targets themselves, but also video images kept in the missile's cross hairs, or even, these days, GPS guidance).

See: AGM-130A, Hellfire (AGM-114), HARM (AGM-88, etc.) missiles.

Thanks to massive developments in computing speed and size, and GPS technology, over the past decades. And a desire to avoid blowing up entire villages/cities to get one terrorist leader (see death of Al-Qa'ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri (Kabul, July 2022)).
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 04:28
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Originally Posted by pattern_is_full
Look up "fire and forget" technology for air-to-surface missiles (a.k.a "smart weapons"). Missiles that can steer themselves with fins, and track in on specific targets (e.g. a single tank or building - and on occasion, a specific balcony!) by various means including sensors/cameras in the nose (radar and IR emissions from the targets themselves, but also video images kept in the missile's cross hairs, or even, these days, GPS guidance).

See: AGM-130A, Hellfire (AGM-114), HARM (AGM-88, etc.) missiles.

Thanks to massive developments in computing speed and size, and GPS technology, over the past decades. And a desire to avoid blowing up entire villages/cities to get one terrorist leader (see death of Al-Qa'ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri (Kabul, July 2022)).


That isn’t that PIF. Dunno what size the Ukrainians use, but that they’re rough equivalent of our 2.75 inch rockets as best I can tell. Hellfires are something completely different.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 05:39
  #15828 (permalink)  

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Agreed, the unguided salvos from Hinds / Frogfoots are late 50's technology.

No belittling UKR for tossing all they have, and only what they have.

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Old 29th Mar 2023, 07:02
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08fa1b55ea2b57

Zelenskiy: Ukraine had to return some air defence equipment from west that didn't work

Journalists from Associated Press accompanied Volodymyr Zelenskiy on part of his trip this week around frontline regions of Ukraine, and to the border region of Sumy. During that time, Ukraine’s president reiterated Ukraine’s requests for more modern weaponry, and also said that some elements that had been supplied by the west had not worked.

He told the journalists “We have great decisions about Patriots, but we don’t have them for real,” he said, referring to the US-made air defence system that has been promised.

Zelenskiy said that Ukraine needs 20 Patriot batteries to protect against Russian missiles, and even that may not be enough “as no country in the world was attacked with so many ballistic rockets.”

Zelenskiy added that a European nation sent another air defence system to Ukraine, but it didn’t work and they “had to change it again and again.” He did not name the country.
What is he referring to?
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 07:29
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This looks like the third complete failure in a row for the Patriot system: every time it's been called upon.
It couldn't protect Israel from Scuds.
It couldn't protect the Riyadh airport.
And they can't even get a working site to Ukraine.

It seems that the entire Patriot program from start to finish has been a complete failure and a gigantic waste of taxpayer's money.
People should probably be in prison over this boondoggle.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 08:00
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Is the US a 'European nation'?
I suspect we all know to which country he was referring, but because he has received other goodies he diplomatically chose to suppress any criticism.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 08:10
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Is the US a 'European nation'?
I suspect we all know to which country he was referring, but because he has received other goodies he diplomatically chose to suppress any criticism.
I wasn't responding to his question about European AD, and I also don't know who he was talking about.

I was posting stand alone but I was triggered by the Zelensky quote: “We have great decisions about Patriots, but we don’t have them for real”.
Something that will stop Kalibr's is sorely needed.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 08:40
  #15833 (permalink)  
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Tossing relatively small explosives against people (probably ) in trenches seems a really stupid wager when weighed against a very expensive pilot and aircraft.
The other reason to do so is firing for effect - you’re not aiming to hit anything (lofting unguided rockets is wildly inaccurate) but to force the enemy to stay in his shelters and remain static.

That may because your troops are either retreating or advancing in front of them or, with conscripts with low morale, to discourage them from following orders to advance as unprotected infantry across open land - as with the their last month of unsuccessful attacks to the south.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 08:55
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Originally Posted by pattern_is_full
Look up "fire and forget" technology for air-to-surface missiles (a.k.a "smart weapons"). Missiles that can steer themselves with fins, and track in on specific targets (e.g. a single tank or building - and on occasion, a specific balcony!) by various means including sensors/cameras in the nose (radar and IR emissions from the targets themselves, but also video images kept in the missile's cross hairs, or even, these days, GPS guidance).

See: AGM-130A, Hellfire (AGM-114), HARM (AGM-88, etc.) missiles.

Thanks to massive developments in computing speed and size, and GPS technology, over the past decades. And a desire to avoid blowing up entire villages/cities to get one terrorist leader (see death of Al-Qa'ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri (Kabul, July 2022)).
Why introduce nonsensical, irrelevant comparisons ? Look up fire-and-forget and see what is wrong with your post. The missiles you quote are large - the HARM is 13 ft long, 10" diameter and weighs 800 lb - and are fired singly from under-wing hard-points.. The missiles in the video under comment were fired in salvos of six or ten from a pod and are probably 50mm -60 mm*: the only guidance they get comes from the motor and winglets. The pilot will only have a vague notion - maybe to 500m +/- where they will land.

* This may be the rocket in question.

" The S-5 (first designated ARS-57) is a rocket weapon developed by the Soviet Air Force and used by military aircraft against ground area targets. It is in service with the Russian Air Force and various export customers. It is based on a German design from World War 2.[1]It is produced in a variety of sub-types with different warheads, including HEAT anti-armour (S-5K), high-explosive fragmentation (S-5M/MO), smoke, and incendiary rounds. Each rocket is about 1.4 meters (4 feet 7 inches) long and weighs about 5 kg (11 lb), depending on warhead and fuze. Range is 3 to 4 kilometres (1.9 to 2.5 mi)"
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 09:34
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Why introduce nonsensical, irrelevant comparisons ?
Because we are in the internet/social media era, and that's what people do - write bollocks about everything!
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 09:34
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The other resin to do so is firing for effect - you’re not aiming to hit anything (lofting unguided rockets is wildly inaccurate) but to force the enemy to stay in his shelters and remain static.

That may because your troops are either retreating or advancing in front of them or, with conscripts with low morale, to discourage them from following orders to advance as unprotected infantry across open land - as with the their last month of unsuccessful attacks to the south.
Thanks for that. I've always wondered about that phrase.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 09:49
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Originally Posted by fdr
Would appreciate the UN applying the provisions of the Charter correctly, including the bogus permissibility of a belligerent nation being yet still afforded a "Veto" a right expressly excluded by Article 27(3).
In yer dreams!
Did you realise that the Chair of the UN Security Council rotates on a monthly basis between the fifteen permanent member nations, and next month in the chair is .... Ruzzia! Fat chance of them being excluded from anythng no matter what the rulebook says, and if Putain decides to do something particularly nasty in April he'll be able to either just write it out of the agenda or simply just veto any discussion of it in the UN.
It's a pretty revolting picture.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 09:50
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And let's not overlook the fact that a lot of the spectacular pyrotechnics in these video clips are actually not ordnance but counter measure flares...
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 10:23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The other resin to do so is firing for effect - you’re not aiming to hit anything (lofting unguided rockets is wildly inaccurate) but to force the enemy to stay in his shelters and remain static.

That may because your troops are either retreating or advancing in front of them or, with conscripts with low morale, to discourage them from following orders to advance as unprotected infantry across open land - as with the their last month of unsuccessful attacks to the south.
Thanks for that. I've always wondered about that phrase.
​​​​​​​

'...not aiming to hit anything (lofting unguided rockets is wildly inaccurate) but to force the enemy to stay in his shelters and remain static' is certainly an effect, but that's not what 'fire for effect' means.
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Old 29th Mar 2023, 10:44
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
In yer dreams!
Did you realise that the Chair of the UN Security Council rotates on a monthly basis between the fifteen permanent member nations, .
Umm .... that would be five permanent members.

Originally Posted by melmothtw

'...not aiming to hit anything (lofting unguided rockets is wildly inaccurate) but to force the enemy to stay in his shelters and remain static' is certainly an effect, but that's not what 'fire for effect' means.
​​​​​​​Oh ! Were my thanks to ORAC premature ? Can you confirm its meaning, please ?
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