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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 19th Jan 2023, 06:40
  #13621 (permalink)  
 
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I know this is a naive question, but I'm going to ask it anyway. What would happen if Finland sent its Leos to Ukraine without German permission?

How would they respond? Invade Finland?
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 06:40
  #13622 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by anxiao
I think it is more along the lines of this article from france24. I think the SPD still has strings that go back to Schroeder and the oil and gas companies of Russia.

From FRANCE24
More than 50 years after Brandt launched his “Ostpolitik” initiative, it’s now being used as an excuse for what Germans call a “Putinversteher” – which literally translates as “Putin understander”. The term is a pejorative reference to politicians, who insist the Russian leader’s expansionist interests are justified, as well as anti-American pundits pushing back against Washington’s calls for Germany’s energy security.

“There are dense networks of money, influence and politics between the SPD and Russia. They hang out in the board rooms of energy companies, trying to build solidarity with Russia while just raking in the money,” explained Nick Spicer, FRANCE 24’s Berlin correspondent. “The question is whether Scholz is going to call out his former SPD colleague.”

Perhaps Scholz needs the support of these networks to stay in power?
Is the SPD solidarity as important as terminating murder being perpetrated by Scholtz's mates in the Kremlin? If Putin achieves hegemony of Ukraine and Belarus through his war crimes, how long until a trigger event arises that puts Scholz into Camo, and carrying a G5? We went past the decision point of the defence of Europe being an elective matter, about the time Putin urged murder squads. Germany is at risk of defacto supporting the behaviour that they were responsible for in the 30's and 40's that thought about the concept of collective guilt.

Germany will be in a single act that lies on the spectrum between obligation following the surrender in 1945 against arming belligerents, to being a deliberate impediment in the defence of a regional country under criminal attack, a wide spectrum ( not as wise as Putin's maybe, but still..) either way they become a worthless munitions exporter, and will effectively dampen their weapons industry. One wonders how far removed that reposition is to questioning why NATO places forces in Germany for the defence of Germany if they could care less about the concept of defence against aggressors. Seems they are managing to behave into he worst possible manner, and they will be remembered for their contempt for the justified defence of a country under attack by their butcher mates in the Kremlin..
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 06:52
  #13623 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Serbia distancing itself from Russia….



"For us, Crimea is Ukraine, Donbas is Ukraine — and it’ll remain so", Serbia's president Vucic says.

https://t.co/kzI963lHPA
Prez Vucic should avoid drinking tea or walking near open windows I fear. That is a surprise turn of events, can't imagine Putin being amused with that from one of the two avid supporters of Russ.

​​​​​​​What the deputy like when the boss has his misfortune Pooteening event
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 06:54
  #13624 (permalink)  
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​​​​​​​Poland has had enough of Germany’s nonsense.

On supplying Leopard 2 tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki said: “Consent is of secondary importance here. We will either obtain this consent quickly, or we will do the right thing ourselves.”
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 07:07
  #13625 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by anxiao
I think it is more along the lines of this article from france24. I think the SPD still has strings that go back to Schroeder and the oil and gas companies of Russia.

“There are dense networks of money, influence and politics between the SPD and Russia. They hang out in the board rooms of energy companies, trying to build solidarity with Russia while just raking in the money,” explained Nick Spicer, FRANCE 24’s Berlin correspondent. “The question is whether Scholz is going to call out his former SPD colleague.”

Perhaps Scholz needs the support of these networks to stay in power?
My 2cents on this, from dealings there: German industry and politics are inextricably linked. German industry is (a) notoriously slow to change and (b) take the long, long view. Given that Russia was a major trading partners, and given that at some point in the future Russia will return to the global fold, German industry want to be at the forefront of the economic opportunities that will come out of this mess eventually. That means treading a very fine line that stays as close as close to neutral as possible to avoid antagonizing the bear. They've taken a leaf out of the Swiss playbook here.

Another factor to consider is that re-unification is only a generation behind us. Eastern Germans over 50 may still have some empathy for Russia. Many of these were taught Russian in school and grew up under the influence of Russian culture, so there remain historical ties (social, political economic....) that influence their thinking and their political vote...

Last edited by sheikhthecamel; 19th Jan 2023 at 07:22.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 07:41
  #13626 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sheikhthecamel
Another factor to consider is that re-unification is only a generation behind us. Eastern Germans over 50 may still have some empathy for Russia. Many of these were taught Russian in school and grew up under the influence of Russian culture, so there remain historical ties (social, political economic....) that influence their thinking and their political vote...
My wife speaks Russian. She was taught it at school in the DDR. She does have a deep hatred for the Russian government though.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 07:42
  #13627 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
My wife speaks Russian. She was taught it at school in the DDR. She does have a deep hatred for the Russian government though.
So does the Estonians I know old enough to have been taught in the soviet era. Without any exceptions.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 08:07
  #13628 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Germany has lost a war and surrendered unconditional. Arms and arms exports are strictly regulated and limited by law and need highest level permits. This was implemented by the Allies after the war.
True, but Scholz can simply give approval by saying "YES"
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 08:18
  #13629 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sheikhthecamel

My 2cents on this, from dealings there: German industry and politics are inextricably linked. German industry is (a) notoriously slow to change and (b) take the long, long view. Given that Russia was a major trading partners, and given that at some point in the future Russia will return to the global fold, German industry want to be at the forefront of the economic opportunities that will come out of this mess eventually. That means treading a very fine line that stays as close as close to neutral as possible to avoid antagonizing the bear. They've taken a leaf out of the Swiss playbook here.

Another factor to consider is that re-unification is only a generation behind us. Eastern Germans over 50 may still have some empathy for Russia. Many of these were taught Russian in school and grew up under the influence of Russian culture, so there remain historical ties (social, political economic....) that influence their thinking and their political vote...

I have never read anything that indicated the ordinary Ossi had the least bit of sympathy for Russia/Russian occupiers. More likely that they loathed them, seeing them as the driving force behind their deeply unpopular DDR government.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 08:37
  #13630 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Poland has had enough of Germany’s nonsense.

On supplying Leopard 2 tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki said: “Consent is of secondary importance here. We will either obtain this consent quickly, or we will do the right thing ourselves.”
I think it's quite likely, given this sentiment, that Scholz will be given an ultimatum. " Give approval, or we send them anyway, and you will be left, trampled in the dust, looking like a weak, useless schmuck ". At least, I hope so.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 19th Jan 2023 at 09:25.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 08:43
  #13631 (permalink)  
 
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The US don't seem to send their own main battle tanks. Lloyd Austin is in Berlin today and then at the Ramstein summit.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 08:55
  #13632 (permalink)  
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The excuse(?) the USA gives for not providing Abrams is the required logistic support and training.

Same as argument as being raised about the Challenger. They are 60+ ton tanks and unsuitable for the terrain, roads and bridges in much of Ukraine and require the transporters, bridging equipment, recovery vehicles plus all the IFV and other supporting armour to form effective joint arms units. (A T-72 weighs 41 tons)

They see the Bradley, much lighter and easier to support and fix logistically as being a far better match - and more than capable of taking on a T-72.

The question being are they sufficiently armoured to break through Russian lines and attack the rear an Abrams unit can.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 09:10
  #13633 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
True, but Scholz can simply give approval by saying "YES"

There's your problem, Scholz. Well done Poland for again, doing the right thing.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 09:46
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Sweden will give Ukraine 50 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles and 12 Archer self-propelled guns, - Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden just confirmed. This is huge. CV-90's have high mechanical reliability and great firepower. I expected Patria's but CV-90 are really good.
archers are going to be interesting
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 09:53
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Estonia just upped their support to Ukraine to 370M€, which represents 1% of the Estonian GDP. They are serious about their support to Ukraine.
To put it into context, if Germany would do the same they would provide $42 billion. UK $30 billion.


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Old 19th Jan 2023, 10:05
  #13636 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman
archers are going to be interesting
The CV90 is very good, too. Right there by the Bradley and Marder. Though I'll be interested to know which version will be provided as the main gun differs from 40mm Bofors to 120mm double mortars. It is very versatile, there are recovery vehicles, mine sweepers and some trial versions even with 120mm smooth bore guns.
Withe the Archer... the Swedes aren't kidding with their support, either.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 10:31
  #13637 (permalink)  
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😂😂😂

The German government is doing more damage to the German arms industry than the RAF did

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Old 19th Jan 2023, 10:39
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I think its more a worry of technology falling into Russian hands, the excuse below re Gas Turbine engines and they have mentioned fuel issues for them in the past... they appear to skim over the fact Ukraine operates T-80 tanks and they are powered by... a Gas Turbines!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64329059

"The Abrams tank is a very complicated piece of equipment. It's expensive. It's hard to train on. It has a jet engine," Mr Kahl said.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 10:47
  #13639 (permalink)  
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One reason why Ukraine needs 100s of Leopards or Abrams - for all their armour they’re still vulnerable and scores will be lost in any major campaign.

Magic bullets they ain’t…

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Old 19th Jan 2023, 10:50
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If you can figure out how to build a helicopter powered by a gas turbine, surely a tank powered the same way isn't going to reveal any game-changing technologies...
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